1

3 4456 0070962 3

ORNL/'SM- 10179

A METHOD FOR FORECASTING REPAIR AND REPLACEMENT

NEEDS FOR NAVAL AJ-RCRAFT
PHASE I1
R. C. DeLozier
V. K. Wilkinson

Date PuSlished

September 1986

Prepared by the

O M RIDGE NATIONAL LABORATORY

Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831

operated by
MARTIN MARIETTA ENERGY SYSTEMS, INC.

3 445b 00709b2 3

iii
CONTENTS

........................................................
.
................................................
Purpose .................................
Goals ..................................................
1.3
Literature ...................................
analyses ............................
............................
............................
2 . TASK
...............................................
..................................................
2.2
.......................................
2 . 3 Data
.......................................
and
...................
.
.....................................................
.....................................
3.2
.........................
Results .........................
3.4
Projection ......................................
3.5
Failure
...................................
3.6 Failure Projections ....................................
.............................
......................................................
.
............................
Be
METHOD
OCCURRENCE
....................

ABSTRACT
1

1.1

2.1

2.4

Background and

Review of

1-3.1
1.3.2
1.3.3

6
6
6

Reliability
S t a t i s t i c a l analysis
R e l i a b i l i t y modeling

APPROACH

Scope

General Approach

Acquisition

Data A n a l y s i s

F a i l u r e Projection

10

RESULTS

12

3.1

Regression Results

12

Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n R e s u l t s

16

R e l i a b i l i t y Parameters

20

Spares

26

3.3

Static

4.

INTRODUCTION

1.2

Page

Model

CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

REFERENCES

APPENDIX A

RELIABILITY D E F I N I T I O N S

APPENDIX

ANALYSIS

FOR MPROXIMATING THE F I R S T

TIME-BETWEEN-F'AILURE

31
36

39
40

43

47

T h i s r e p o r t d e s c r i b e s t h e Phase I1 wmk performed on t h e

development of r e p a i r s and r e p l a c e m e n t s f o r e c a s t i n g a l g o r i t h m s
T h i s new method-

f o r Naval A v i a t i o n Logistics C e n t e r s u p p o r t .

ology

is

to

intended

improve

the

confidence

level

between

a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d s p a r e p a s t s r e q u i r e m e n t s .

Phase 11 r e f i n e d t h e b i v a r i a t e r e g r e s s l o n a n a l y s i s ,

loped i n

t h e Phase I d e m o n s t r a t i o n e f f o r t ,

quired

to

along

steps

the

the Navy

support

parts'
under

based on historical d a t a ,

modeled

and expanded

supply l i n e
various

that

operations

f e a s i b i l i t y of

the

selected,

and

four

studied.

The d a t a

the

recent

method,

years

of

the

P-3

can

be

To demon-

aircraft

maintenance

covered system and p a r t s

o t h e r maintenance a c t i o n s .

a r e re-

or e d u c a t e d a s s u m p t i o n s can

b e i n p u t where d a t a are u n a v a i l a b l e o r i n a d e q u a t e .
strate

the

This method assumes t h a t

analyses to the multivariable level.

the v a r i o u s

deve-

data

was
Were

r e p l a c e m e n t s and

Two P 3 component d a t a were exam-

i n e d i n s e a r c h of c o r r e l a t i o n s t h a t might e x i s t between v a r i o u s
p a r a m e t e r s (e,g.

f l i g h t - h o u r s and t i m e ) .
t h i s phase of the s t u d y show t h a t a meth-

The r e s u l t s of

odology

in

which

systematic

analysis

of

historical

data

coupled w i t h i n p u t Erom main teraance experts r e s u l t s in impraved

predictive
spare

ability.

parts

*E n g i n e e r i n g
'Engineering

vs

The

actual

improvement

needs

Division,

Technology Division.

can

in

estimated

produce

needs

significant

for

cost

savings

in

log3 s t i c

costs

r e s u l t s of

greatsr

effectiveness

through

Also i n c l u d e d are estimates of 5 y e a r s of

increased readiness.
replacement

and

needs p r o j e c l e d f o r two s e l e c t e d components.

t h e study,

along w i t h recommendations

The

f o r the next

p h a s e of the e f f o r t , are p r e s e n t e d
-I--.

1 . LNTRODUCLION
The Naval A v i a t i o n L o g i s t i c s C e n t e r (NALC)
a n improved p r e d i c t i v e w t h o d o l o g y

c a p a b l e of

p r e s e n t l y h a s a need f o r
modeling m l C i p l c vast-

a b l e s or p r o j e c t i n g t h e number o f a i l u r e s , r e p a i r s ,
i n naval a i r c r a f t and ground s u p p o r t equipment.
the

Phase

and r e p l a c e m e n t s

This report addresses

II e f f o r t t o d e v e l o p a f o r e c a s t i n g methodology

that

wi.11

improve t h e c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l be tween p r e d i c t e d and o b s e r v e d v a l u e s f o r

various

logistics

The

elements.

development

tlrris

of

methodology

a t t e m p t s a l s o t o be c o m p a t i b l e w i t h a l l n a v a l a v i a t i o n weapons systems
a t a l l maintenance s i t e s .

1.1

Background and Purpose

I n t h e inid- 19 7 0 s t h e Navy a d o p t ed R e I. ia b i 1i t y -Ce n t e r e d M a i n t enance

(RCM)

techniques f o r i t s a i r c r a f t e l

for

cipline

developing

RCM is d e f i n e d as t h e logi.ca1 d i s -

preventive

maintenance

(PM) program

that

r e a l i z e s t h e i n h e r e n t r e l i a b i l i t y l e v e l s of equipment a t minimum c o s t .
However, RCM creates an environment i n which f u t u r e s u p p l y s u p p o r t a l l o c a t i o n s tend t o be projec.t:ed

from an e x t r a p o l a t i o n of

previous needs.

T h i s method i s n o t f l e x i b l e enough t o p r e d i . c t r e p a i r r e q u i r e m e n t s when

t h e r e are s d g n i f i c a n t changes i n o p e r a t i o n a l r e q u i rernents ( e . g . ,
zation)

A General Accounting O f f i c e (GAO)

iimbili-

r e p o r t 2 i s s u e d i n November 1384

a d d r e s s e d t h e Air Force met-hodology f o r f o r e e a s t i a g a i r c r a f t s p a r e p a r t s

requirements:

t h e Air Force f o r e c a s t s i t s a i r c r a f t

spare parts

re-

q u i r e m e n t s by c a l c u l a t i n g a r a t i o of f u t u r e f l y i n g h o u r s t o p a s t f l y i n g
hours

for

the

aircraft

using

a specific part

and then a p p l y i n g t h i s

r a t i o to t h e h i s t o r i c a l demand f o r Che p a r t , "

this
"

The GAO concluded t h a t

i n err~neous e s t i m a t e s p r i n c i p a l l y because t h e

technique r e s u l t e d

t e c h n i q u e was mot a d m i n i s t e r e d and execru t e d p ~ ~ p e r l y ,S p e s i f l c a l l y - the

GAO i d e n t i f i e d (1) i n a c c u r a t e d a t a c o r r e l a t i n g s p e c i f i c p a r t s t o s p e c i f i c a i r c r a f t t y p e s , ( 2 ) f a i l u r e t o base p r o j e c t i o n s on t h e many ~ o s n b i n a and ( 3 )

tiosis of a i r c r a f t t h a t employ che p a r t ,

f a i l u r e to incorporate

t i m e s i n t o the f u t u r e flying-hours

t h e i n f l u e n c e of lengthy procurement

e s t i mate a
t h e GAQ d i d n o t take i s s u e w i t h t h e b a s i c " t h e o r y "

Significantly,

(or a s s u m p t i o n ) that any change i n f l i g h t - h o u r s w i l l c a u s e a c o r r e l a t i n g

i n c r e a s e o r d e c r e a s e in t h e use of s p a r e p a r t s ,
that flight-hours

in use.

flight-hours

l o g i c a l measure oE an a i r c r a f t ' s l i f e t i m e

i s t h e most

linear

The

relationship

and f a i l u r e s

It i s widely r e c o g n i z e d

that

i s presumed

1s a l s o widely a c c e p t e d ,

to exist

between

though with

little

b a s i s o t h e r t h a n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t a l l p a r t s on t h e a i r c r a f t a r c characterized

by

constant

failure

rates

assumption

is

p e r i o d s of

e a r l y l i f e and l a t e r l i f e ,

commonly

changing f a i l u r e r a t e s ,

may be

there

believed

to

(failures/Plight-hour).

be

valid.

However,

overshadow t h e time-dependent

alternate

during

the

parts generally exhibit rapidly

and t h e a s s u m p t i o n does n o t hold.

a d d f t i o n a l or

This

factors

that

Furthermore,

might

compound or

f a i l u r e behavior.

For p r e d i c t i n g e x p e c t e d numbers of equipment r e p a i r s and r e p l a c e ments,

NALC r e q u e s t e d t h a t Oak Ridge N a t i o n a l L a b o r a t o r y (ORNL) d e v c l o p

a methodology t h a t would p r o v i d e a r a t i o n a l , j u s t i f i a b l e , and d e f e n s i b l e

b a s i s f o r p r o j e c t e d supply support a l l o c a t i o n s .

The u l t i m a t e o b j e c t i v e

i s to r a l s e t h e r e a d i n e s s of f l e e t weapon systeins w h i l e promoting e f f i cient

planning

Command (NAVAIR).

and

budgeting

measures

within

the

Naval

Air

System

The importarnee of this o b j e c t i v e i s borne o u t by t h e

f a c t t h a t 90% of t h e l o g i s t i c s budget p e r t a i n s t o r e p a i r a b l e items.

Currently,

the

NAVAXR

Assistant

Program

Manager

for

Logistics/

L o g i s t i c s Manager ( A P M L I I $ ~ )f a r a given a i r c r a f t or common item is re-

s p o n s i b l e f o r o b t a i n i n g and s u b m i t t i n g l o g i s t i c s d a t a f o r his p a r t i c u l a r
a s s i g n e d a i r c r a f t or common i t e m .

To a i d NAVAIR and i t s v a r i o u s f f e l d

a c t i v i t i e s w i t h the management of F l e e t R e p a i r a b l e A s s e t s , a computeri z e d system known a s t h e Master Index of R e p a i r a b l e s ( M I R ) w a s d e s i g n e d

4
and implemented.

The system c o n t a i n s d a t a c o l l e c t e d from many s o u r c e s

and i n c l u d e s u s e r - c a l c u l a t e d

(i.e.,

removed and r e p a i r e d i t e m s

of

projections are

combined

R e pa i r a b 1e As s e t s

p r o j e c t i o n s f o r t h e number

APML/LM)

per a c t i v i t y .

These c o l l e c t e d d a t a and

form a s t a n d a r d i z e d management r e p o r t o f

to

Thus, t h e r e i s a mechanism f o r h a n d l i n g l o g i s t j c a l p r o j e c t i o n s , b u t
t h e r e i s no r e c o g n i z e d method f o r g e n e r a t i n g them.
a

d e f e n d a b l e methodology

that wuld

exhibit versatility

managers a t a l l work c e n t e r s w i t h t h e i r 5-year

1.2

NALC d e s i r e s t o have

in assisting

p l a n n i n g and b u d g e t i n g .

--C o a l s

ORNL proposed an approach t o t h e development of a p r e d i c t i v e meth-

The key e l e m e n t s of t h e p r o p o s a l i n c l u d e d (1) a n a l y z -

odology f o r NALC.
ing

historic

failure

data

from n a v a l a i r c r a f t ;

(2)

gathering

expert

o p i n i o n from a l l p o s s i b l e sources, such a s l i n e maintenance p e r s o n n e l ,

and making e v e r y e f f o r t t o e f f e c t i v e l y u s e e x p e r i e n c e w i t h i n t h e frame-

work of

t h e Naval A v i a t i o n Maintenance program;

c o r r e l a t i o n model.
of

and

( 3 ) developing a

The p r o p o s a l was d e s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e a d e m o n s t r a t i o n

the approach i n a r e l a t i v e l y s h o r t p e r i o d o t i m e (6 months) and t o

submit longer-range

p l a n s f o r f u r t h e r development.

Phase -I3 d e v e l o p e d

and d e m o n s t r a t e d t h e c o n c e p t s t h a t a r e r e f i n e d i n Phase X I ,

which h a s

t h e following goals :

1.

r e f i n i n g t h e b i v a r i a t e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s by improving t h e unders t a n d i n g of t h e d a t a c o n t e n t s and v e r i f y i n g a s s u m p t i o n s made d u r i n g

t h e Phase I a n a l y ~ i s , ~

2.

expanding t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s t o t h e m i d t i v a r i a b l e l e v e l ( t h r e e
o r more)

t o f u r t h e r r e d u c e t h e e r r o r between p r e d i c t e d

and a c t u a l

time -be tween- f a i l u r e (TBF ) va l u e s

3.

investigating site-specific
other

variables

perinitting,

effects

i d e n t i f i e d during

( a s i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s ) and
the

Phase

I discussions3

(time

t h i s informa t i o n w i l l be i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o the r e g r e s -

s i o n a n a l y s e s of S t e p s 1 and 2 ) , and

4.

p r o v i d i n g 5-year

f a i l u r e p r o j e c t i o n s f o r the s e l e c t e d components.

5
1.3

Review o f T A t e s a t u r e

To g a i n some i n s i g h t i n t o t h e long-term o b j e c t i v e s of t h e NALC grot h e a p p r o p r i a t e m i l i t a r y s t a n d a r d s (MIL-STDs)

ject,

p o r t s =.re

a GAQ r e p o r t ,

were of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t .

1388-18,

work are MIL-STDs

'"OD

a rrei Li t a r y handbook (MI.L-HDBK> * and

Two MlL-STDs,

reviewed.

arid government re-

Logistics

The " b i b l e s ' " f o r I . a g i s t i e s

Support A n a l y s i s ,"4

and 1388-28,

[Department of Def e n s e l Requirements f o r a L o g i s t i c s Support h a l v -

s f s Record."5

The MIL-STD 1388-1A i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e NALC p r o j e c t would l o g i c a l l y

f a l l under Task 501:

" t o a s s u r e t h e achievement of s p e c i f i e d saspport-

a b i l i t y requirements,

i d e n t i f y r e a s o n s f o r d e v i a t i o n from p r o j e c t s , and

i d e n t i f y methods of

c o r r e c t i n g d e f i c i e n c l e s and e n h a n c i n g s y s t e m read-

Task 501 c a l l s f o r t h e a n a l y s i s of s u p p o r t a b i l i t y d a t a as t h e y

iness.'O

become a v a i l a b l e from s t a n d a r d s u p p l y maintenance and r e a d i n e s s r e p o r t i n g systems and from any special d a t a c o l l e c t i o n programs implemented on
systems o r equipment.

The r e s u l t s of t h e a n a l y s i s s h o u l d be used as a n

i n p u t t o d a t a r e c o r d B " I t e m r e l i a b i l i t y ( R ) and maintenance (M)

1388-28.

t e r i s t i c s ' @ of

MIL-HDBK-266 (Ref.
A GAO r e p o r t

The

Navy's

standard

reference

for

charac-

ReM

f.s

I).

- AD-8147911,

The A i r Force Can Improve i t s F o r e c a s t -

ing of A i r c r a f t S p a r e P a r t s Ueq,uirements2

- to

the S e c r e t a r y of

t h e Air

F o r c e i s a l s o of p a r t i c u l a r i n t e r e s t b e c a u s e i t o u t l i n e s t h e problems of
spare parts forecasting.

A d d i t i o n a l d e t a i l s of t h e GAO f i n d i n g s may b e
Note, however,, t h a t the GAO f i n d -

1 . 1 o f t h i s document.

found i n Sect.

ings i d e n t i f y a l m o s t i d e n t i c a l problems w i t h t h o s e e x p e r i e n c e d wl t h the

WALC *

DOD l o g i s t i c s r e q u i r e m e n t s ,
ments,

indicate

that

t h r e e primary areas:

sis,

and

(3)

r e p o r t uses

as o u t l i n e d i n t h e above three docu-

literature

r e v i e w s h o u l d he concentrated

in';o

(1) r e l i a b i l i t y a n a l y s i s , ( 2 ) s t a t i s t i c a l analy-

combining (1)

and

t h i s recommendat.ion;

t u r e review f o l l o w t h i s f o r m a t *

(2)

i n t o r e l i a b i l i t y model-ing.

the r e m a i n i n g e l e m e n t s of

This

the l i t e r a -

1.3.1

R e l i a b i l i t y analyses
t h e a n a l y s e s of P--3 compn-

For r e l i a b i l i t y d e f i n i t i o n s and b a s i c s ,

n e n t r e l i a b i l i t i e s used s t a n d a r d t e c h n i q u e s , such a s those r e f e r e n c e d i n

Henley

and

Handbook

of

Kumamoto' s

Reliability

industrial

Engineering

Engineering_$

and

and

Risk

Mi3.i tary

Assessment,6

Standard

72 I-C

R e l i a b i l i t y of m i l i t a r y weepons systems may be found i n r e p o r t s such a s

the

IDh/OSD

Reliability

and

Maintainability

Study ,9 which

gives

the

r e s u l t s Prom working g r o u p s t h a t examined 16 i n d i v i d u a l teclinology areas

on 8 weapons s y s t e m s .

These s t u d i e s r e s u i t e d i n s p e c i f i c r e l i a b i l i t y

and m a i n t a i n a b i l i t y recommendations i n e i g h t a r e a s :

1.

technology-based

2.

r e l i a b i l i t y and m a i n t a i n a b i l i t y d e m o n s t r a t i o n programs,

3.

f u l l - s c a l e e n g i n e e r i n g development (FSED) p l a n n i n g and a n a l y s i s ,

4.

r e l i a b i l i t y and m a i n t a i n a b i l i t y s t a n d a r d s ,

5.

FSED managelnetit awareness of r e l i a b i l i t y and m a i n t a i n a b i l i t y ,

6.

new systems m a t u r i t y ,

7.

c o l l e c t i o n and u s e of r e l i a b i l i t y and m a i n t a i n a b t l i t y d a t a , and

8.

r e l i a b i l i t y and m a i n t a i n a b i l i t y t r a i n i n g .

r e l i a b i l i t y and m a i n t a i n a b l l i t y program,

R e l i a b i l i t y of o t h e r t y p e s of
reports.,

systems m y be found i n a number of

such as t h e --P a r t F a i l u r e R a E Data Book O u t l i n e f o r Gas T u r b i n e

and Combined Cycle P l a n t s . I

1.3.2

Statistical analysis
S t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s of t h e NALC d a t a b a s e s was done u s i n g s t a n d a r d

s t a t i s t i c a l t e c h n i q u e s , such as t h o s e grc:sented i n Duncan's Q u a l i t y Con-

t r o l and I n d u s t r i a l S t a r i s t i c s l P and Hines and Montgomery's P r o b a b i 1 i t y

~-i n e e a.__-^._.I
and M a n E n e n t Science.12
and S t a t i s t i c s i n E n g
y_-

Analysis

The S t a t i s t i c a l .

System ( S A S ) 1 3 w a s used f o r distribution a n a l y s e s ,

n o n l i n e a r model development,

and v e r i f i c a t i o n of

l i n e a r and

t h e p e r s o n a l cormputer

a n a l y s e s 2nd modeling,

1.3.3

R e l i a b i l i t y modeling
Modeling of

the r e l i a b i l i t y

of

the

r e l i a b i l i t y and s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s e s of

P-3

components was b a s e d

the NALC P-3

d a m base.

on

Model

7
development was based p r i m a r i l y on t a s k 209 (of MIL S t a n d a r d 785Dlb),
which h a s

as Its purpose

t h e development

of

a r e l i a b i l i t y model f a r

making n u m e r i c a l a p p r o x i m a t i o n s and esttmates t o e v a l u a t e system,

sub-

system, and equipment r e l f a b i l i t y .

Most r e l i a b i l i t y models use p r e d i c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s s i m i l a r t o those

B, Specear i n h i s paper " R e i i a b i l i t y

r e p o r t e d by G e n e r a l E l e c t r i c ' s K.

P r e d i c t i o n Techniques f o r Second G e n e r a t i o n Marine and I n d u s t r i a l Gas

T u r b f n e ~ . " ~ The
~
p r e d i c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s are u s u a l l y based on a f a i l u r e
mode,

effect,

and c r i t i c a l i t y a n a l y s i s t e c h n i q u e u s i n g g e n e r i c f a i l u r e

rates d e r i v e d from o p e r a t i o n a l equipment.

These t y p e s of a n a l y s e s gen-

e r a l l y r e s u l t i n a c o n s t a n t f a i l u r e rate o r ,
f a i l u r e rate r e s u l t i n g i n a Weibull-type

a t b e s t , a time-dependent

distribution.

The l i t e r a t u r e

a n a l y s e s and modeling as they are

does n o t r e p o r t any m u l t i - r e g r e s s i o n
used i n t h i s p r o j e c t .

I n c l u d e d i n t h e p r o j e c t r e s u l t s are comfidence l i m i t s , e r r o r a n a l y These compare f a v o r a b l y w i t h ptah-

sis, and s p a r e p a r t s r e q u i r e m e n t s .
lished

data,

such

as

that

in

Beers'

Introduction

to

the

Theory

of

E r r o r 16 P a s c a l ' s p a p e r " R e l i a b i l i t y Confidence L e v e l s and OC C u r v e s , " l 7

9-

Kacecioglu
Curves

'*

and Lamarre's

paper

" K e l i a b i l i t y Confidence L e v e l s

l7 Kacecioglu and Lamarre's

f i d e n c e Limits,"18

paper "Mechanical R e l i a b i l i t y Con-

t h e N a t i o n a l A e r o n a u t i c s and Space A d m i n i s t r a t i o n ' s

T e c h n i c a l Support Package:

Computation of

and Hahmoud's "Accuracy i n F o r e c a s t i n g :

availability

analysis

such

as

Spare P a r t s Requiremen&,

l9

A Survey".20

Based on t h i s phase of t h e NALG work,

some

and 06:

that

f u t u r e phases s h o u l d i n c l u d e
demonstrated

in

P a r d ey ' s

A v a i l a b i l i t y A n a l y s i s Program,21 as wela as some r i s k a n a l y s i s , such as

t h o s e i n C o v e l l o and Mumpower's

"Risk A n a l y s i s and Risk Management:

H i s t o r i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e , " 2 2 and P a t e - C o r n e l l
and Defense P o l i c y :

U.S.

An

and Neu' s "Warning ~ y s t e m s

A R e l i a b i l i t y Model f o r t h e Command and C o n t r o l of

N u c l e a r Forces. " 2 3

2.

TASK APPROACH

The approach t o p e r f o r m i n g t h e t a s k
OKNL

engineers with

related

WQS

experience.

based on d i s c u s s i o n s among

This chapter describes

that

approach and t h e c o n s t r a i n t s t h a t were o b s e r v e d i n t h i s s t u d y .

2.1
For

the

results

of

the

Scope

pilot

effort

to

be

of

more

immediate

u s e f u l n e s s t o NALC, i t was proposed t h a t ORNL l i m i t t h e Phase I1 s c o p e

t o a select

list

compile a l i s t of
of

It w a s s u g g e s t e d t h a t N L U C

a i r c r a f t components.

of

a i r c r a f t Work Codes (WUCs) a c c o r d i n g t o some measure

C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e t'm WCs (f i v e - d i g i t

importance.

l e v e l ) chosen t o

be i n v e s t i g a t e d ( T a b l e 1) were s e l e c t e d because of t h e i r a d v e r s e impact

on

the

level

of

maintenance.

fleet

The

readiness

was

investigation

The p a r t i c u l a r t i m e

aircraft.

primarily

period

because

limited

to

of

unscheduled

P-3C

type/model

f o r d a t a extended from J a n u a r y

1979 t o December 1982.

Tah1.e 1. P--3 work u n i t codes
identified for investigation

wuc

N ome nc l a t u r e

65341

IFF r e c e i v e r t r a n s m i t t e r

73668

319 and 319A t a p e t r a n s -

--

-.------.-..

2 2

General ADDroach

I)

The primary d a t a s e t s r e c e i v e d from NALC were g e n e r a t e d u s i n g t h e

Analytical

Maintenance

Specifically,
520*
_

Program

Analysis

* For

system

(AMPAS).

t h e f a i l u r e data, which w c r e t r a n s m i t t e d i n a r e p o r t No.

f o r m a t , w e r e s o r t e d by organization

Support

samples
r e p o r t ; Kef. 3.

of

bot11

the

code,

bureau number,

and j o b

570

atid

710 r e p o r t s

see

the

Phase

Records i n v o l v i n g t h e s p e c i f i c WCs s p e c i f i e d f o r

c o n t r o l number d a t e .

Phase 11 a n a l y s e s were c u l l e d and t a b u l a t e d .

These r e c o r d s were then p r o c e s s e d ( f o r i n d i v i d u a l WCs) t o assess
f a i l u r e s on a g i v e n a l r c r a f t

the t i m e between v e r i f i e d

number)

in

a given

squadron

s e r v e d as t h e

parameter

independent

parameters,

(i*e.,

organizational

(i.e.*

bureau

This

code).

TBF

v e h i c l e f o r a t tempted

c o r r e l a t i o n with o t h e r

including

operational

the

various

t h a t are c o l l e c t e d on t h e AMPAS Report WQ.

*
710

quantities

format ( f l i g h t a c t i v i t y ,

i n v e n t o r y , and r e a d i n e s s ) .
failure

of

parameter

or

The
single
singled

out

for

research

was

effort.

However,

t h e s e WUCs

set

of

further

intended

did not

parameters.

investigation.

to

be

a p p e a r t o c o r r e l a t e with any
However,

flight-hours

Originally,

a modified-Delphi

this

were

additional

information

gathering

t i m e c o n s t r a i n t s p e r m i t t e d only l i m i t e d discussions

w i t h p e r s o n n e l who were knowledgeable about t h e WUCs and t h e i r f a i l u r e

characteristics.

The

purpose

of

the

discussions

was

to

uncover

i n f o r m a t i o n about o t h e r ( p e r h a p s unknown) p a r a m e t e r s t o which TBF might

be

If q u a n t i t a t i v e d a t a were i n d e e d a v a i l a b l e on t h e s e

correlated.

v a r i a b l e s and could be c o r r e l a t e d , t h e n an a l g o r i t h m could be d e v e l o p e d

t o be used as a p r o j e c t i o n or f o r e c a s t i n g tool.

2.3

Data A c q u i s i t i o n

The computer program developed d u r i n g Phase I3 w a s m o d i f i e d d u r i n g

this Phase I1 e f f o r t t o i n c l u d e t h e c a p a b i l i t y of doing m u l t i v a r i a b l e

A d d i t i o n a l m o d i f i c a t i o n s were made to t h e programs

regression analysis.

developed i n t h e Phase I e f f o r t t o i n c l u d e expanded d a t a b a s e management

c a p a b i l i t i e s and more-varied

a n a l y s i s o p t i o n s , such as r a p i d l y evalluat-

i q other s t a t i s t i c a l parameters.

Phase I1 a l s o i n c l u d e d e x t e n s i v e SAS

a n a l y s e s t o v e r i f y t h e IBM p e r s o n a l computer a n a l y s i s of t h e @3 components.

direct

A remote j o b entry was e s t a b l i s h e d

access

*For

tu

samples
r e p o r t ; Kef. 3 .

d u r i n g Phase I T

to allow

t h e AMPAS and Naval A v i a t i o n L o g i s t i c Data Ana'Lysis

of

both

the

520 and

710 r e p o r t s

see

the

Ptiase I

10
system a t Harry Diamond L a b o r a t o r y .
mented,

will

provide

for quick

T h i s c o n n e c t i o n , when f u l l y imple-

turriaroiind

and

improved

data analysis

capability.

A f t e r t h e d a t a f o r the two W C s of i n t e r e s t had been o b t a i n e d from

t h e NALC d a t a b a s e ,
(Fig.

l ) , was used

quirements.

t h e p r o c e d u r e f o r a n a l y s e s and f a i l u r e p r o j e c t i o n s
t o esti-mate component

f a i l u r e and r e p l a c e m e n t re-

The f i r s t s t e p i n t h e p r o c e s s i s t o a n a l y z e , s o r t , and c o r -

rect

t h e data.

that

25 t o 30% of

E x p e r i e n c e w i t h t h e s e p a r t i c u l a r components i n d i c a t e d
t o be c o r r e c t e d or updated.

t h e d a t a had

The an-

a l y s e s , s o r t i n g , and c o r r e c t i . n g p r o c e s s i s an i t e r a t i v e p r o c e s s i n which
t h e t i m e between f a i l u r e s i s e s t i m a t e d and t h e n a n a l y z e d t o v e r i f y t h a t

ORNL-IPWG IIOC-4193 ETD

DATABASE

AIRCRAFT
QP&RAThlOPdAL DATA

WWC MAINTENANCE
DATA

ANALYZE, SORY, CORRECT

DATA

ESTIMATE FAKIERE OF
DiSTRDBUTlON PARAMETERS

Pig.

1.

Replacement component methodology,

11
the r e s u l t s are r e a s o n a b l e ; t h i s task f r e q u e n t l y reqmired t h a t t h e i n p u t
d a t a had

t o be

c a r e f * i P l y and obvious e r r o r s d e l e t e d o r

s c r e e n e d more

Af t e r t h e i t e r a t i v e process w a s completed,

c o r r e c t e d where p o s s i b l e .

TBF was e s t i m a t e d by r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s .

A s i n Phase 1, t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s deterrrdned TEF as a f u n c t i o n

of

s e v e r a l i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s (e.g.,

and t a k e o f f ) .

time,

flight-hours,

The r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s i d e n t i f i e d p o s s i b l e c o r r e l a t a b l e

i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s f o r the e n t i r e P-3

fleet.

at

identify

each

Landings,

P 3 organization

made

was

to

An a n a l y s i s of f a i l u r e s

those

squadrons

showed e i t h e r v e r y good or v e r y bad maintenance h i s r o r i e s .

that

Included i n

t h e a n a l y s i s w a s t h e u s e of e x p e r t o p i n i o n , p r i m a r i l y from the P a t u x e n t
R i v e r P-3 m a i n t e n a n c e squadron.
t h e r e g r e s s i o n was completed, t h e t y p e of f a i l u r e d i s t r i b u -

After

t i o n w a s e s t i m a t e d by examining the f r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n s of
d i v i d u a l p a r a m e t e r s (TBF,

flight-hours,

and c a l e n d a r t i m e ) .

the i n -

T h i s ft-e-

quency d t s t r i b u t i o n a n a l y s i s d e t e r m i n e s t h e t y p e of d i s t r i b u t i o n (e.%.
exponential,
butions).
density

Normal,
Given

function

l i a b i l i t y was

rate f o r t h e

type

the

projected.

failure

of

parameters

(e.g.,

estimated.

From

standard

reliability

distribution,

sigma,

that

mu,

beta,

the
or

distri-

probability
lambda)

were

estimate t h e a p p r o p r i a t e f a i l u r e

component was e s t a b l i s h e d .

t h e e x p e c t e d number of

flight-hours
mate

the

other

OK

Once t h e t y p e of f a i l u r e d i s t r i b u t i o n w a s e s t a b l i s h e d , tmre-

estimated.

rate,

Weibull,

was projected.

replacement

With an estimate of

failure

f a i l u r e s o v e r a g i v e n t i m e o r number of

The l a s t s t e p i n t h i s a n a l y s i s w a s t o e s t i -

components

required

for

t h e number

of

failures

However, w a s not p o s s i b l e t o a c c o m p l i s h t h i s l a s t s t e p be-

c a u s e of a l a c k of d e p o t - l e v e l d a t a , which were c o m p l e t e l y m i s s i n g from

t h e NALC d a t a b a s e o r t h e components of

interest.

Thus, b e c a u s e t h e

d e p o t l e v e l i s t h e l e v e l a t which t h e component i s u l t i m a t e l y e i t h e r repaired or replaced,

i t w a s not p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e how many f a i l u r e s

r e s u l t e d i n a component r e p l a c e m e n t .

12

3.
A goal

of

the

RESULTS

I1 e f f o r t was

Phase

to

methodology and approach through examples,

demonstrate

the

proposed

The r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d are

some i n d f c a t i o n of the p o t e n t i a l improvement i n the f o r e c a s t i n g of maint e n a n c e a c t i o n s u s i n g t h e method d e s c r i b e d i n Chap.

2.

The c o n c e p t of

c o r r e l a t i o n h a s been f u l l y covered i n t h e Phase X r e p ~ r t . ~Note t h a t

when t h e r e s u l t s a r e reviewed, t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s of c o r r e l a t i o n d i s c u s s e d

are based on r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s u s i n g m u l t i p l e - i n d e p e n d e n t
Some of t h e f o l l o w i n g d i s c u s s i o n is f a i r l y t e c h n i c a l ,
t o be a s c l e a r a s p o s s i b l e ,
viewpoint.

some

variables.

and i n an a t t e m p t

terms a r e d e s c r i b e d from a layman's

For a f u r t h e r d e f i n i t i o n of terms, p l e a s e see Appendix A and

t h e d i s c u s s i o n o f c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e Phase I r e p o r t .

3.1
NAIX r e q u e s t e d
and

319

tape

Regression R e s u l t s

that two P-3

transport)

be

components (TFF r e c e i v e r

analyzed

and a

p e r i o d (1983-1987).

p a r t s inade o r a 5-year

r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a r e shown i n T a b l e 2.
tions; e x i s t w i t h any of
result,

the

projection

of

transmitter
replacement

"lie r e s u l t s of a m u l t i p l e Note t h a t no s t r o n g c o r r e l a -

the independent v a r i a b l e s i n v e s t i g a t e d .

f a i l u r e information yielded

As a

l i t t l e insight i n t o logistics

problems o t h e r than t h e f a c t t h a t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n i s h i g h l y skewed w i r h

a l a r g e standard deviation.
R e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s was a l s o run on i n d i v i d u a l s q u a d r o n s t o ident i f y any s i t e - d e p e n d e n t
of

t h a t analysis,

variables.

T a b l e s 3 and 4 summarize t h e r e s u l t s

The IFF squadron f a i l u r e a n a l y s i s ( T a b l e 3),

when

compared w i t h the o v e r a l l a v e r a g e , i n d i c a t e s no a p p r e c i a b l e d i f f e r e n c e s
between squadrons.
of

the

tape

squadrons.
(MTBF)

On t h e o t h e r hand,

transport

(Table 4 )

For example,

does

squadron AT2

t h e P-3

squadron l e v e l a n a l y s i s

i n d i c a t e some d i f f e r e n c e s
iiit h

a mean-tilne-beDw~en-failure

of 80 d and squadron PX5 w i t h a MTRF of 127 d b o t h have v e r y low

a v e r a g e TBFs when compared w i t h t h e 224-6 MTBF f o r a l l squadrons.

t h e r e a r e two s q u a d r o n s , AT3 and P71,

of

among

773 and 490 d ,

s quadr oris

respectively,

when

Also,

t h a t have v e r y h i g h a v e r a g e TBFs
compared w i t h

t h e MTBF of

all

T a b l e 2.

Regression c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s
Variables
(%> (R2)

Component
Calendar
time
~~

Sorties

hours

Landings

Best
2-variable

Best
3-variable

Bes e:
4-variable

4.54

4.84
3.09

~~

IFF

Tape t r a n s p o r t
%eptember

4.11
2.04

0.12

0.68

1 2 , 1985, data.

0.41
0e 5 2

0.00
0.40

4.57

2.61

2 093

Table 3 .

Squadron

Number of
observa t i o n s

A l l squadrons

1083

AT2

AT3

AT4
AT5

AT6
AU 1

AU3
AU6
A21
PW2

PW3
PW4

PW5
PX5
P7 1
P7 2
P7 3

a2
61
54
64
92
71
76
51
24
32

41
4 36
81
40
59
44

55

~~~

a h g u s t 1 3 , 1985, d a t a .

P-3

IFF f a i l u r e analyses a t the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l e v e l a

Best s i n g l e
variable
correlation
Time
Landings
T izw
Sorties
Time
Landings
Time
Time

Time

Sorties

Landings

Tim&?
Time
Landings
Sortie t i m e

Tim e

Time
S o r t i e time

Multivariable
correlation
(%>

Mean TBF
(6)

SIP-TBF
(d)

Mean
sorties

Me an
flight-hours

4.6

25%

268

106

518

35.2
31.5
22.8
38.6
17.4
10.7
11.8
23 .o
71.6

216
302
2 54
27 1
263
225
292

225
295
258
292
290
220
284
236
385

100
t 14

47 2
582
52 4
522

41.9
33.5

30.7
10.0
42.1

39.5
34.6
9.9

259

317
276
278
280
233
29 1
292
226
24%

293
239
246

261
235
311.
26 1

263

100
102

153
104
100
104
60
114
111
95
89
101
103
104
101

538

54 7
568
52 1
i 94
577
61 1

367
481

504
503
586
55 1

Table 4.

P-3 t a p e t r a n s p o r t a n a l y s e s a t the o r g a n i z a t i o n a l l e v e l '

Best s i n g l e

Squadron

Number of
observations

A l l squadrons

2314

Time

151
10
109
124
116
131
155
86
30
36
10

Time
Time
T im e
Time
Tine

AT2

AT3
AT4
AT5
AT6
AU 1
AU3

AU6

A21
PW2

PW3
PW4

PW5
PX5
P7 1
P72
P? 3

826

117
127
14
154
128

variable
correlation

Time

Time
Time
Time
Tine
Landings
Time
Time
Time
Time
Time
Time

Multivariable
correlation
(%>

Mean TBF
(d)

SD-TBF

(a

Mean
sorties

Mean
flight-hours

103

518

2 .s

224

350

10.2

80
773
28 1

277
160

156
493
395
40 1
265

188
180
207
4 15
297
444
245
316

282
340
454
27 2
426
333
432

a7.4
44.0
62.8
49.8
33.7
27.6
40 .G

93.8

87.8
97.2
50 a 6
29.6

12.8
64.3
41.5
42.5

127
490

265
253

319

215
400
396
410

102

491

113
97

546
513

104
147
111
I04
98

49

123

111
96
85
94
105
101
98

533
504
633

602
47 3
158
584
599

366

455

456
435

543

532

in

16
I n t e r v i e w s were h e l d i n an a t t e m p t t o d e t e r m i n e why t h e s e f o u r part i c u l a r squadrons had such a l a r g e v a r i a n c e in MTBFs compared w i t h t h e

t o t a l squadrons' average.
son

for

these

large

there was no e a s i l y e x p l a i n a b l e r e a -

However,

variances.

This

q u e s t i o n should

be

to

pursued

d e t e r m i n e i f t h e r e a r e s i re-dependen t e f f e c t s e v i d e n c e d by t h e s e d a t a .
There a r e some o t h e r observatloxis about t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s :

1.

Table 2 d a t a c o n t a i n some r e f i n e d d a t a c o r r e c t i o n f a c t o r s t h a t a r e
not i n c l u d e d i n T a b l e s 3 and 4 ( n o t e t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n d a t a d a t e s ) ,
t h u s r e s u l t i n g i n s l i g h t l y d i f f e r e n t c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s among
the

three

tables.

However,

these

d i f f e r e n c e s do n o t

change

the

o v e r a l l resu1t.s.
2.

The mathematics of r e g r e s s i o n computation always r e s u l t s in a h i g h e r

s m a l l e r numbers of

regression correlation for

observations.

This

f a c t p a r t l y e x p l a i n s t h e h i g h e r c o r r e l a t i o n w i t h i n d i v i d u a l squadrons*

3.2
Unless

Frequency D i s t r i b u t i o n R e s u l t s

they

are

condensed

s t a t i s t i c a l data

are

often

SO

or

reduced

numerous

to

that

more

they

suitable

form,

a r e v i r t u a l l y use-

Thus, t h e f i r s t s t e p of a s t a t i s t i c a l a n a l y s i s i s o f t e n t h e con-

less.

s t r u c t i o n of

a frequency d i s t r l h u t i o n histogram t h a t d i v i d e s the d a t a

i n t o a s m a l l number
each c l a s s .

of

c l a s s e s showing

These f r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n h i s t o g r a m s show t h e symmetry,

number of modes, etc.,

They a l s o g i v e a v i s u a l i n d l c a t i o n

of t h e d a t a .

of the t y p e (normal, Weibull, log-normal,

appear
the

t o follow.

basis

o b s e r v a t i o n s in

t h e number of

for

I d e n t i f i c a t i o n of
further

of d i s t r i b u t i o n t h e d a t a

t h e type of d i s t r i b u t i o n is then
to

analyses

etc.)

determine

the

distribution's

parameters.
Figures 2-4

show exainples of

t r i b u t i o n s for f l i g h t - h o u r s ,
these

frequency

t h e component f a i l u r e frequency d i s -

TBPs, and c a l e n d a r t i m e .

distribution

tables

tend

t o follow

Note t h a t most of
the

classic

log-

normal. or Weibull d i s t r i b u t i o n with t h e mode skewed t o t h e l e f t i n a l l

cases

****I
c

****

*****

I
I
i

*
I

I
I

I
1
I
I
I

0
t-

u
.-m
I

-3

rD

- * e
* * v

* * e
1

e * *
-

I
I

I
I

I
I
I
1

I ?

UJ

*0

m
0

0,

UJ

II

I
I
I

h
L)

c
3

a,

q"J
k
w

ORNL-DWG 86-4479 ETD

I
1
I
I
I

I
I

*
1
t

+
I
I
t

*****

t
I

*****

I
1

$*++*

e*.*,

****I

***I*

*****

+****

*****

+e**+

*****

*****
*****

*
I

****e

*+*4+
*I***

***+e

*****
***+*
e*++*
****.

****e

****e

**I**

****+
*****

****I

I
I

****SI

**e**

I
I

***I*

e****
*.*a*

Fig. 4.
calendar t i m e .

Tape t r a n s p o r t (339)

*e***

*.e*+

*****

failure frequency distribution f o r

Note t h a t
resent

the a b s c i s s a v a l u e s of

t h e r a n g e of

t h e frequency d i s t r i b u t l o n s rep-

d a t a v a l u e s w i t h t h a t inidpoint.

For example,

in

F i g . 2 t h e f i r s t b a r i s t h e sum of f r e q u e n c y p e r c e n t a g e from 60 t o 180 h

(midpoint 120 h ) .

The second b a r i s the s l i m of t h e p e r c e n t a g e s i n t h e

180 t o 300 11.

r a n g e of

3 t h e b a r w i t h a midpoint shown as z e r o

i n Fig.

r e p r e s e n t s t h e i n t e r v a l of -80

t o 80 days and t h e 160 days m i d p o i n t i s

from 80 t o 240 days.

the t o t a l percentages

from a number of 0 day f a i l u r e s .

(The negative t i m e r e s u l t s

I n Fig. 4 t h e t o t a l p e r c e n t a g e from 50

t o 150 days i s Shawn as m i d p o i n t 100 days with t h e second b a r r e p r e s e n t i n g f a i l u r e s which o c c u r r e d from 150 t o 250 days.

3.3
5-7

Tables
alyses)
skewed

show

calculated

(from

of

( a measure

normal

parameters

the

-a

deviation

for

the

regression

an-

components

of

normal

kurtosis

(a

froin symmetry about the p o i n t

wasure

of

the

d i s t r i b u t i o n has
and

zero k u r t o s i s ) .

relative

positive

Calendar

skewness

and

indicating a fairly flat distribution.

d i f f i c u l t y in p r o j e c t i n g s p a r e - p a r t s

of

z e r o skewness) w i t h more

d i s t r i b u t i o n has

c e n t e r r e l a t i v e t o t h a t a l o n g t h e t a i l s of

negative

non-linear

Note t h a t f l i g h t hours and f a i l u r e rates are a l l p o s i t i v e l y

c e n t r a l tendency

than

the

distribut-ton

failure

interest.

R e l i a b i l i t y Parameters R e s u l t s

occurrences

at

the d i s t r i b u t i o n - a
time,

the

normal

however,

shows b o t h

less-than-normal

kurtosis,

These f a i l u r e p a t t e r n s can c a u s e

needs because t h e m a x i m u m number nf

a i l u r e s o c c u r s someplace in the v i c i n i t y of 20 d and t h e a v e r a g e miniher

of

f a i l u r e s i s -200

d.

p r o b a b i l i t y values.

A f a c t o r of

T h i s t y p e of

10 e x i s t s between t h e 20 and 501

failure

rate

i n d i c a t e s a d e s i g n p r o b l e m w i t h t h e components.
is

long

buffer

time

in

co~ning, t h e

spare-parts

to provide inveiltory f o r the

relationship generally
If

the design s o l u t i o n

stock-pile

must

supply a

t i m e s when t h e h i g h f a i l u r e r a t e s

combine s t a t i s t i c a l l y t o reduce t h e s t o c k p i l e a t t e n times t h e a v e r a g e

rates.
Figures

and 6

show

tire

least-squares

fit

of

the

probability

d e n s i t y f u n c t i o n superimposed on t h e f r e q u e n c y d i s t r i b u t i o n c e l l s .

Note

t h a t b o t h f i g u r e s show clip classic Weibull d i s t r i b u t i o n f o r fali l u r e r a t e

o r TRFs w i t h a mode a t -20 d.

T a b l e 5.

Variable

D i s tr ib u t i o n
type

Calendar t i m e
Average f l i g h t hours

Log-normal

Failure rate

Wei b u l l

P r o j e c t e d IFF f a i l u r e d i s t r i b u t i o n s a
D i s t r i b u t i o n parameters
r

,/Bb

Skewness

Kur t s s i s

0.95

6.10

-0 * 09

-1 E6

0.21

6.10

0.71

0.40

19.65

0.97

5.84

38.21

% a i l u r e rate = l/TBF.
bp f o r a log-normal

Distribution characteristics

d i s t r i b u t i o n and $ f o r a Weibull.

hs

ua

T!

'rl

m
3

22

I--

N
0

rr)

\o

..

oc)

rl
r(

=I
P
d

0
w
m

a
C

.p(

3
J2
U

M
0
d

d
I

k
0

'rl

rn

l-i

rH

'rl

2"

a 0

L 1

rnL

M m

a)

4=

c!

IJ

k
0
d
I
M

m
ul

c
n
a)

(D

M
0

a)

E
u

-I

-0

a,

i-4

L,

*-I

23

?-I
4
rl

za,

u.4

.I+

u
s
P
k

rl

.I+

M
0

24

25

26

Spares P r o j e c t i o n

3.4
The

algorithm was

following

placement

requirements

and

developed

stockpile

to

needs

project

for

spare-part

aircraft

re-

components.

T h i s p r o j e c t i o n i s based on a f a i l u r e r a t e t h a t can be a f u n c t i o n of
For the s t u d i e s i n t h i s r e p o r t , time was t h e o n l y v a r i -

many v a r i a b l e s .
able

that

had

significant

correlation;

i n general,

however,

this

and

o t h e r replacement e q u a t i o n p a r a m e t e r s w i l l be f u n c t i o n s of s e v e r a l i n d e The e q u a t i o n f o r r e p l a c e m e n t i s g i v e n by

pendent v a r i a b l e s .

where
=

RP

p r o j e c t r e p l a c e m e n t r a t e (numbers p e r u n i t t i m e ) ,

F, = f r a c t i o n r e c y c l e d ,
r ( v ) -. f a i l u r e r a t e (numbers p e r u n i t t i m e ) ,
Na(t)

q =

s(t)

number of a i r c r a f t ,
number of components p e r a i r c r a f t ,
stockpile factor,

t = t i m e dependence,

v = m u l t i v a r i a b l e dependence ( i . e . ,
For

t h e two components i n v e s t i g a t e d as examples,

(F,)

V 1 , V2, V3, etc.1.

the f r a c t i o n recycled

could n o t be e s t i m a t e d b e c a u s e of t h e l a c k of d e p o t - l e v e l

was assumed t o be z e r o .

d a t a and

However, when the model i s f u l l y implemented, a

v a l u e would be e s t i m a t e d f o r e a c h component f o r which p r o j e c t i o n s are

required.
The
number of

failure

r a t e s would

landings,

etc.

normally be a f u n c t i o n of

However,

flight-hours,

t h i s study i n d i c a t e d t h a t the tape

t r a n s p o r t and I F F d e m o n s t r a t e d the b e s t c o r r e l a t i o n with t i m e .

f o r e , s t a n d a r d r e l i a b i l i t y p r o j e c t i o n t e c h n i q u e s were iised.

There--

For ease of

c a l c u l a t i o n , t h e f a i l u r e rate w a s assumed t o be t h e W e i h u l l h a z a r d funct i 011;

27
The number of a i r c r a f t Ps assumed t o be a l i n e a r f u n c t i o n of t i m e , and,
thus,

Na(t) = No

hN(t

- to) ,

where
t o = a b a s e y e a r from which numbers of a i r c r a f t a r e known,
No = t h e number of a i r c r a f t a t b a s e y e a r ,
AN = t h e number of a i r c r a f t added per u n i t time.

The

number

Fig. 7.

of

P--3

aircraft

reported

over

the

4 years

is

shown

in

According t o t h e d a t a r e t r i e v e d from t h e R710 r e p o r t , n o t e t h a t

t h e inventory

is decreasing.

T h i s d e c r e a s e w a s checked o u t w i t h Navy

p e r s o n n e l and deemed t o he i n c o r r e c t ; d a t a were o b t a i n e d d i r e c t l y on t h e

P-3 i n v e n t o r y t o make t h e p r o j e c t i o n s ,
The t e r m S ( t ) i s a f a c t o r t h a t w i l l e n s u r e that. t h e number of p a r t s

w i l l be s u f f i c i e n t t o m a i n t a i n some l e v e l of c o n f i d e n c e t h a t s t a t i s t i c a l
f l u c t u a t i o n s w i l l neat e x h a u s t t h e s t o c k p i l e between t h e r e p l e n i s h m e n t of
components i n t h e i n v e n t o r y .

The e q u a t i o n f o r t h i s f a c t o r i s

where

z = one o v e r t h e mode o r f a i l u r e rate a t t h e made,

y = t h e number of times t h e s t o c k p i l e is r e s t o c k e d , and

g = a f a c t o r t h a t r e l a t e s t o t h e c o n f i d e n c e t h a t t h e p a r t s supy1.y
w i l l n o t be e x h a u s t e d .

The v a l u e f o r g i s a f u n c t i o n of t h e r e q u i r e d c o n f i d e n c e and a l s o may be

a f~nct101-1of o t h e r v a r i a b l e s .
Eng froin Monte C a r l o s t u d i e s .

F i g u r e s 8 and 9 show t h e v a l u e s r e s u l t Note t h a t t h e s o l i d l i n e i n Figs.

8 and 9

i s t h e model p r o j e c t i o n w h i l e t h e s m a l l t r i a n g l e s a r e a sample of

the

random number.
Monte C a r l o s i m u l a t i o n s were used because t h e v a r i a b l e s r e l a t i o n s h i p s i n t h e model are too complex f a r a n a l y t i c s o l u t i o n s .

Monte C a r l o

s i m u l a t i o n u s e s a computer t o e v a l u a t e t h e model n u m e r i c a l l y o v e r t h e

28

2.9

30

31
tine

period

of

interest,

are g a t h e r e d t o estimate t h e t r u e

and d a t a

c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of t h e model.
The Monte C a r l o mode9 was used

t o determlne confidence i n t e r v a l s

f o r t h e s t o c k p i l e model and t o p r o j e c t numbers of r e p a i r s a t the o r g a n i z a t i o n ( O ) , i n t e r m e d i a t e (I),

and d e p o t (D) Bevels.

F i g u r e s 10 and I 1

show t h e number of f a i l u r e s e a c h month, and superimposed on t h i s i s t h e

t o e s t i m a t e the number of

W e i b u l l p r o j e c t i o n used

required actions a t

each l e v e l by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e f a c t o r g times the p r o j e c t i o n l i n e .

t h a t t h i s c o n t i n g e n c y i s c o n s t a n t w i t h time and,

therefore,

contingency

p a r t s a r e a c q u i r e d , spare p a r t s do n o t c o n t i n u e to b u i l d up.

sion

of

failure

projection

into

the

various

Note

The d i v i -

maintenance

levels

was

accomplished by s t u d y i n g the r a t i o of

a c t i v i t i e s a t e a c h l e v e l over 4

years preceding the projectlon years.

These r a t i o s were a p p r o x i m a t e l y

c o n s t a n t and were assumed t o be i n v a r i a n t d u r i n g t h e p r o j e c t i o n .

This

a s s u m p t i o n s h o u l d he examined f u r t h e r b e c a u s e f o r o t h e r a i r -

constant

other

it

parts

may w e l l

be

of

function

craft

and

(e.g.,

number of c a t a p u l t l a u n c h e s and h o u r s a t s e a ) .

3.5

other

variables

S t a t i c F a i l u r e Model

To u n d e r s t a n d t h e e f f e c t o f a wide and h i g h l y skewed f a i l u r e d i s t r i b u t i o n on a p a r t i n v e n t o r y and p u r c h a s e s c h e d u l e , a model w a s developed to simulate the f a i l u r e p a t t e r n s

several

The f a i l u r e s were modeled using t h e observed f a i l u r e d i s t r i b u -

years,
tion

t h a t could occur a f t e r

curve

4-year

for

the

tape

transport.

Each

simul.ation was

run

over

p e r i o d using d i f f e r e n t v a l u e s f o r g i n t h e i n v e n t o r y e q u a t i o n .

The number

of: p a r t s

absence

any

of

purchases

information

economic c o n s i d e r a t i o n ) .

per

(the

y e a s was assumed
number

of

purchases

t o be one i n t h e
per

year

is

an

Each s i m u l a t i o n r e s u l t s i n a t i m e h i s t o r y of a

p a r t usage and r e s u l t a n t i n v e n t o r y l e v e l s ( F i g s ,

12 and 13).

Note t h a t

t h e r e s u l t s go below zero d u r i n g t h e s i m u l a t i o n and t h a t t h e r a t i o of

t h e number of
p r o b a b i l i t y of

n e g a t i v e days

t o t o t a l . days i s used a s an i n d i c a t o r of

zero inventory using a p a r t i c u l a r

example i n v e n t o r y p r o f i l e u s i n g g = 0 (i.e.,

g D

Figure

12 i s an

no e x t r a u n i t s a r e bought

t o ensure a g a i n s t zero inventory p r o b a b i l i t i e s ) .

I n t h i s example,

the

A
A

A
A

A
A

A
A

32

A
A

A
A

A
A
Ir

A
A

3%

A
A
A

34

ORNL-OWG 86-4487 E T D

SIMULATION OF TAPE I N V E N T O R Y O V E R FOUR Y E A R S 19 = 0 )

500

400

>

LII

0
I-

z
UJ
>

300

z
z

a
w
m

2 200
3
Z

100

io0

0
300\

Fig. 12.
Simulated
t r a n s p o r t f o r g = 0.0.

1500

1200

DAYS

4-year

history

of

inveiltory

level

of

tape

35

SlMllLATlON

150

300

OF T A P E I N V E N T O R Y O I V E 9 FOUR Y E A R S

410

600

750

300

1050

(g =

0)

l?QO

1350

1500

DAYS

F i g . 13.
Siaulated
t r a n s p o r t : f o r g = 0.02.

4-year

history

of

inventory

level

of

tape

36
i n v e n t o r y went n e g a t i v e t w o t i m e s i n t h e 4-year
t i v e -6% of t h e t o t a l t i m e .

s i m u l a t i o n and was nega-

The example shown i n Fig.

15 i l l u s t r a t e s a

c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a 99.50% c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l .

run u s i n g g = 0.02,

3.6

Failure Projections

F i g u r e s 14 and 15 show t h e M I K p r o j e c t i o n s of t h e e x p e c t e d numbers

of

IFF and t a p e t r a n s p o r t f a i l u r e p r o j e c t i o n s f o r c o n f i d e n c e i n t e r v a l s

of

95

and

99.5%.

The

monthly f l i g h t - h o u r s

estimates

are

for

years

1983-1987,

assuming

a r e a t t h e h i s t o r i c a l mean f o r y e a r s 1979-1982.

These v a l u e s were g e n e r a t e d u s i n g the computer programs and models

developed
number

of

during

Phase

IT

effort.

a i r c r a f t were e s t i m a t e d over

seen i n Figs.
projected

the

First,
t h e 4-year

the

failure rate

period.

and

As can b e

14 and 15, t h e t a p e t r a n s p o r t e r r e p a i r r e q u i r e m e n t s were

t o be c o n s t a n t and t h e

maintenance a c t i o n s .

TFP t o have an i n c r e a s i n g number of

The Monte C a r l o s t u d i e s were used i o e v a l u a t e t h e

e x t r a o r c u s h i o n amount r e q u i r e d t o e n s u r e a d e s i r e d c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e

es tima te.
The computer codes scanned t h e 197p-1982 d a t a of

t y p e of mainten-

a n c e c o d e s and e s t i m a t e d t h e f r a c t i o n of components t h a t p a s s through o r

r e q u i r e a c t i o n s a t t h e t h r e e maintenance l e v e l s 1, 2 , and 3.
t o r i c a l d a t a were used t o p r o r a t e t h e a c t i o n s .

These h i s -

3I

a
t-

IU
0

t
t
I

(D

LD

3
n
2

a
0

38

t
R

39

this

( c o n s i d e r i n g b o t h Phase P and Phase H I r e s u l t s )

is that

study

s i g n i f i c a n t c o n c l u s i o n reached i n t h e c o u r s e of

most

The s i n g l e ,

methodology i n which s y s t e m a t i c a n a l y s 5 s af h i s t o r i c a l d a t a i s coupled

w i t h i n p u t from e x p e r t s r e s u l t s in an improved p r e d i c t i v e a b i l i t y .
additional

from d a t a a n a l y s i s
answers.

i s t h a t many c o r r e l a t i o n numbers )*

conclusion

t h e complete lack of

For example,

limited

established

raise o t h e r q u e s t i o n s i n s t e a d of

alone,

l o g i s t i c s model development.

depot-level

AII

providing

data severely

Such p e c u l i a r i t i e s g i v e r i s e t o

d o u b t s about t h e u s e f u l n e s s o f t h e d a t a base and u n d e r l i n e t h e need f o r

i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r i n g at

the organizational level.

This a p p r o a c h w a s

amply i l l u s t r a t e d i n t h e d i s c u s s i o n s d u r i n g which i t w a s concluded t h a t

a modif ied-Delphi

or

some o t h e r i n t e r a c t i v e

is a necessary

technique

element in d e v e l o p i n g a r e a l i s t i c f o r e c a s t i n g a b i l i t y .

Note

that

the

failure

have

been

shown

to

require

con-

However, t h e p r i n c i p a l i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e r e c o r d s

siderable correction.

( a i r c r a f t bureau number,
codes,

records

r e p a i r codes,

squadron,

etc.)

failed part,

can meet most of

date! of

failure,

cause

t h e d a t a needs f o r f a i l u r e

projections.
The recommendat i o n s p r e s e n t e d h e r e are p r i n c i p a l l y s u g g e s t i o n s f o r
program d i r e c t i o n .
of work.

They p e r t a i n p r i m a r i l y t o t h e n e x t immediate p h a s e

The recommendations r e f l e c t comments from p r o j e c t s p o n s o r s a t

NALC who r e c e i v e d p r e l i m i n a r y r e s u l t s b e f o r e p u b l i c a t i o n O F t h i s docu-

ment.
The f o r e m a s t recommendation i s t o c o n t i n u e t o work toward t h e i a l . t i -

mate program o b j e c t i v e s of
p u t e r models,

and o t h e r t o o l s

naking p r o c e s s e s and (2)

NALC managers.

(1)

developing procedures,
that w i l l

guidelines,

assist NALC i n i t s d e c i s i o n -

t r a n s f e r r i n g t h e system i n t o p r a c t i c a l u s e by

The f o l l o w i n g Phase 3 t a s k i s t h e n e x t

toward t h a t o b j e c t i v e

com-

logical

step

40
REFERENCES

1.

Application of R e l i a b i l i t $ Cen&?r=x?d Maintenam@ t o

Naval Aircraft Weapons Systems and finlppo~t Equipment, Department of

Mil-Hdbk-266,

Defense, Washington, D.CI,

Augitst 1981.

2.

G e n e r a l Accounting O f f i c e , The A i r Force Can Improve I t s Forecasts

of Aircraft Spare Parts Requirements, AD-A147-91 1 , G e n e r a l Accounti n g O f f i c e , Washington, D.C.,
November 19, 1984.

3.

R. C. D e l o z i e r and W. K. K a h l , A Method for Forecasting Failures:

S t a ~ u sReport Phase Ig ORNL/TM-9871, M a r t i n M a r i e t t a Energy Syst e m s , Inc., Oak Ridge N a t l . Lab., i n p r e p a r a t i o n .

4,

MIL-STD-1 388-1A3, Logistics Suppolat AnalysiB, Department o f Defense,

Washington, D.C.,
A p r i l 11, 1983.

5.

NIL-STD-1 388-2AY DOD Requirements for a Cogistic Support Anal9sis

Record, Department of Defense, Washington, D.C., J u l y 20, 1984.

6.

E,

and

Henley

.J.

H.

Kumamoto, ReZiabil.ity Engineeping and Risk

I n c . , Englewood Cli-EEs, N . J . ,
1981.

Assessment, P r e n t i c e - W a l l ,

7.

G. S a l v e n d y , ed., Handbook of .IndustpiaZ

and Sons, New York, 1982.

8.

MIL-STD-721-C,
Definitions of Temm fop R e l i a X l i t y and Mzintaina b i l i t y , Department of Defense, Washington, U.C.,
J u n e 1 2 , 1981.

9.

I D A / O S D R e l i a b i l i t y lznd Maintairznbility
O f f i c e of S e c r e t a r y of Defense, Department
of Defense, Washington, D.C.,
November 1983.

10.

Part Failure Rate Da-ta Book Outline f o r Gas Turbine avzd @ombind
Cycle Plant6, E P R I A9-4025, E l e c t r i c Power R e s e a r c h I n s t i t u t e , P a l o

R.

J.

Rivoire

et

h g i n e e d n g , .John Wiley

al.

Study, I D A Report R-272,

Alto, Calif.,

June 1985.

11.

A. J. Duncan, Q W 1 i t y Controt and Industrial S t a t i s t i c s , 4 t h ed.,

Richard D. I r w i n , Inc., Homewood, I l l . , 1974.

12.

W.

W. Wines and D. C. Montgomery, Probability and Statis.t;ics i n

Engineering avd Management Science, John Wiley and Sons, New York,

1972.

13.

SAS

Users Guide,

2979

Edition, SAS I n s t i t u t e ,

Lnc.,

Cary,

N.C.,

1979.
14.

MIL--STD--78SD,
System
Reliability,
Washington, D.C.,
September 15, 1980.

15.

R.

of

Defense,

B. S p e c t o r , R e l i a b i l i t y LF%edietion Techniques f o r Second Generat i m Marine and Indust;ria?, Gas Tupbines, ASME 79-CT-l. sr--3, p r e -

s e n t e d a t t h e 1979 J o i n t
I s r a e l , J u l y 9-11,
1979.
16.

Department

Y.

Beers,

Introduction

Lond, 1962.

80 t h g

Psrael

Gas

Turbine

Congress,

Faifa,

Theory of Error, Addison-Wesley.Inc.

41

17.

R. A. P a s c a l , " R e l i a b i l i t y , C o n f i d e n c e L e v e l s and 0. C.
Qual.., Vol. 9 # l o , 17-19,
October 1977.

18.

.)I
Kac;ecioglu and G. Lamarre,
Limits,"
presented
at
ASME
Nov. 27-0ec. 2, 1977.

19.

Technical Support Package:

Computation of
ments, MSC-16782, NASA Tech B r i e f s , Vo1.

Aeronautics

1978.

and

Space

Curves,"

"Mechanical R e l i a b i l i t y C o n f i d e n c e
Winter
Annual Meeting,
Atlanta,

Administration,

Spare Parts Require-

3, No. 4 ,
Washington, D.C.,

National
Winter

J. Forecast. 3 # 2

20.

E. Mahmoud, "Accuracy i n F o r e c a s t i n g :
139-59 April-June
(1984).

21 e

L. F. P a r s l y , A v a i l a b i Z i t y AnaZysis P r o g m , ORNL/CF-85/62, M a r t i n
M a r i e t t a Energy System, l n c , , Oak Ridge N a t l . Lab., March 1985.

22.

23.

A Survey,"

V. T. C o v e l l o and J. Manpower, "Risk Analysis and

ment:
An H i s t o r i c a l P e r s p e c t i v e , " R i s k AnaZ. 5 ( 2 ) ,
(1985).

R i s k Manage10+20,
June

M. E. Pate-Cornel1 and J. E. Neu, "Warning Systems and Defense

Policy:
A R e l i a b i l i t y Model for t h e Command and C o n t r o l of U.S.
N u c l e a r F o r c e s , " R i s k AnaZ. 5 ( 2 ) 121-38,
J u n e (1985).

43
Appendix A
RET,IA BT L IPY DE FIN IT ION SI

A measure of

AVAILABILITY:

t h e d e g r e e t o which a n i t e m is i n an oper-

a b l e and c o m m i t t a b l e s t a t e a t t h e s t a r t o f a m i s s i o n when t h e m i s s i o n i s c a l l e d o r a t a n unknown t i m e .

FAILURE:

o r i n o p e r a b l e s t a t e , i n which any item o r p a r t of

The e v e n t ,

a n i t e m d o e s n o t , o r would n o t , perEorm a s p r e v i o u s l y s p e c i f i e d .
FAILURE MECHANISM:

The p h y s i c a l ,

chemical, e l e c t r i c a l , thermal or o t h e r

p r o c e s s which r e s u l t s i n f a i l u r e .
FAILURE MODE:

The consequence of

u r e o c c u r s , i.e.,

FAILLTEE, RANDOM:

t h e mechanism through which t h e f a i l -

s h o r t , open, fraction, e x c e s s i v e wear.

F a i l u r e whose o c c u r r e n c e i s p r e d i c t a b l e o n l y i n a pro-

b a b i l i s t i c or

s t a t i s t i c a l sense.

This applies t o a l l distribu-

tions.
The t o t a l number of f a i l u r e s w i t h i n an i t e m p o p u l a t i o n ,

FAILURE RATE:

d i v i d e d by the t o t a l number of l i f e u n i t s expended by t h a t population,

d u r i n g a p a r t i c u l a r measurement i n t e r v a l under s t a t e d condi-

tions.
MAINTAINARILITY:

The measure of

t h e a b i l - i t y of

an i t e m to be r e t a i n e d

i n or r e s t o r e d t o s p e c i f i e d c o n d i t i o n when m a i n t e n a n c e i s performed

by p e r s o n n e l having s p e c i f i e d s k i l l l e v e l s , u s i n g p r e s c r i b e d proc e d u r e s and r e s o u r c e s , a t e a c h p r e s c r i b e d l e v e l of maintenance and

repair.
MAINTENANCE:

All a c t i o n s n e c e s s a r y f o r r e t a i n i n g an i t e m i n or r e s t o r -

ing i t t o a s p e c i f i e d condition.
MAINTENANCE, CORRECTTVE:

A l l a c t i o n s performed as a r e s u l t of f a i l u r e ,

t o r e s t o r e an i t e m to a s p e c i f i e d c o n d i t i o n .
a n c e can i n c l u d e any o r a l l of
Isolation,
Checkout e

Disassembly,

C o r r e c t i v e mainten-

t h e following s t e p s :

Interchange,

reassembly,

Localization,
Alignment,

and

44
MEAN-TIME-BETW~eN-FAILURE

r e p a i r a b l e items:
p a r t s of

(MTBF) :

A basic masure

The mean number of

of

r e l i s b i l i ty for

l i f e u n i t s d u r i n g which a l l

t h e i t e m perform w i t h i n t h e i r s p e c i f i e d l i m i t s ,

during a

p a r t i c u l a r measurement i n t e r v a l under s t a t e d c o n d i t i o n s .
~EAN-TIME-BETWEEN-~.~lAINTENRNCE (MTBM) :

ing

i n t o a c c o u n t maintenance

units

expended by

a given

A measure of

policy.

time,

The

t h e r e l i a b i l i t y taktotal

d i v i d e d by

number

life

of

t h e t o t a l number of

maintenance e v e n t s ( s c h e d u l e d and u n s c h e d u l e d ) due t o t h a t i t e m ,

MEAN-TIAPE-TO-REPAIR

A b a s i c naeasure of

maintainability:

The

re-

c o r r e c t i v e maintenance times a t any s p e c i f i c l e v e l of

sum of
pair,

(MTTR) :

di-vided by

paired a t

that

t h e t o t a l number of
level,

f a i l u r e s w i t h i n an item re-

during a p a r t i c u l a r

interval

under

stated

conditions.

(1)

RELIABILITY:

The d u r a t i o n o r p r o b a b i l i t y of f a i l u r e - f r e e

perfor-

inance under s t a t e d c o n d i t i o n s .

(2)

The p r o b a b i l i t y t h a t

an i t e m c a n perform i t s in-

tended

function

for

specified

interval

under

s t a t e d conditions.
G e n e r a l - A composite of

SYSTEM:

c a p a b l e of

equipment and s k i l l s , and t e c h n i q u e s

performing o r s u p p o r t i n g an o p e r a t i o n a l r o l e ,

or both.

A complete system i n c l u d e s a l l equipment, r e l a t e d f a c i l i t i e s , mate-

rial,

software,

s e r v i c e s , and p e r s o n n e l r e q u i r e d f o r i t s o p e r a t i o n

and s u p p o r t t o t h e d e g r e e t h a t i t can be c o n s i d e r e d s e l f - s u f f i c i e n t
i n i t s i n t e n d e d o p e r a t i o n a l environment.
TIME:

The u n i v e r s a l measure of d u r a t i o n .

The g e n e r a l word " t i m e " w i l l

be m o d i f i e d by an a d d i t i o n a l t e r m when used i n r e f e r e n c e t o o p e r a t ing t i m e ,

mission

time,

test

time,

s u c h a s "Xean-Time-Between-Failure

etc.
(YTHF)

In general expressions

,"

t i m e stands for

"life

u n i t s ' ' which must be more s p e e i f i c a l l y d e f i n e d whenever t h e g e n e r a l

term r e f e r s t o a p a r t i c u l a r i t e m .
WEAROUT:

The p r o c e s s which r e s u l t s i n an i n c r e a s e of

the f a i l u r e r a t e

o r p r o b a b i l i t y of f a i l u r e w i t h i n c r e a s i n g number of l i f e units.

45

1.

MIL-STD-721-C,

Defiazii;ians of T e ~ mfar Reliability and Mairltaina b i l i t y , Department of Defense, Washington, D.c., ,June 12, 1981.

47
Appendix R

To model t h e e f f e c t of s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s on a i r c r a f t p a r t f a - l l u r e s ,

individual

failures

(TBFS).

faillires

must
This

is

operational

variables

flight-hours

and number of

as

tracked

be

required

corresponding

function

to r e l a t e
to

landings).

the

this

of

time

time

same

time-betweenInterval

period

to

(e.g.,

However, i n most c a s e s d a t a a r e

n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r the e n t i r e t i m e an a i r c r a f t h a s been o p e r a t i o n a l , and

TBF must be e s t i m a t e d for t h a t p o r t i o n of t h e t o t a l t i m e .
though

the

replacements

data m y
of

s t a r t in 1979,

parts

in

years

For example,

t h e a i r c r a f t h a s had r e p a i r s and

before

1979;

it

is

impractical

or

i m p o s s i b l e t o o b t a i n these e a r l i e r d a t a .

To e s t i m a t e TBF's,
bur

technique

that introduces

enhances t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s r e s u l t s

is

l d t t l e o r no b i a s

used.

The t e c h n i q u e

u s e s a s t o c h a s t i c model t h a t by i t s v e r y n a t u r e r e d u c e s t h e p r o b a b i l i t y
of

introducing

bias

while

including

a s mch

information as

inferred

possihle.
F i g u r e 3.1

i l l u s t r a t e s TBF a s a l t n e a r f u n c t i o n of

calendar t i m e .

The 45"

l i n e on t h i s f i g u r e i n d i c a t e s t h e d i v i s i o n between r e g i o n s des-

ignated

1 and 2.

I n Region

1 each TRF must be e s t t r n a t e d b e c a u s e no

f a i l u r e d a t a are a v a i l a b l e b e f o r e t h a t t i m e ,

time

For example, a t c a l e n d a r

100 no TBF v a l u e above 100 can be e v a l u a t e d b e c a u s e no d a t a a r e

a v a i l a b l e b e f o r e t P m e 1,

C o n s e q u e n t l y , Region 1 v a l u e s f o r TBF must b e

estimated.

I n Region 2 TBPs can be e v a l u a t e d by s i m p l e s u b t r a c t i o n ,

Far example,

i f a f a i l u r e i s on day 134 and the p r e v i o u s f a i l u r e was on

day 101 f o r the same p a r t and a i r c r a f t , TBF, n e g l e c t i n g the r e p a i r t i m e ,

i s 33 d a t day number 1 3 4 .

The problem w i t h Region 1 i s t h a t we d o n o t

know t h e time a t which t h e p r e v i o u s f a i l u r e occurred.

To e s t i m a t e t h a t

t h e a v e r a g e f a i l u r e r a t e will be assumed t o be r e l a t i v e l y c o n s t a n t

time,
within

the region (TI

time-between-failure

MTBF = ( T

-T

t o "2).

(XTBF)

Ns

)-

Nf

T h i s a s s u m p t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t t h e mnean-

f o r the d a t a set i s

4a
ORNL-DWG

86-4491 E T 0

Tl
C A L E N D A R TIME

Fig. B.1.

TBF vs t t m e .

where
T 2 = time of l a s t d a t a e n t r y ,

time of f i r s t d a t a e n t r y ,

Ns

a v e r a g e number of p a r t s a t r i s k ,

Nf

t o t a l number of p a r t f a i l u r e s .

To s e p a r a t e t h e t w o r e g i o n s , MTRF w i l l be w r i t t e n as

This

e q u a t i o n simply s t a t e s t h a t

the sum of

e a c h of

TBFs d i v i d e d by t h e number of f a i l u r e s is e q u a l t o XTSF.

v a l u e s f o r each r e g i o n a r e g i v e n by
MTRFl = CTBFl/Nl

t h e two r e g i o n a l
The i n d i v i d i i a l

49
and
MTBF2 = CTBF2/N2

where
MTBFl = MTBFs i n Region 1,
MTBF2 = MTBFs i n Region 2 ,
N 1 = number of f a i l u r e s i n Region 1,

N2 = number of f a i l u r e s i n Region 2.
These e q u a t i o n s a r e used t o d e r i v e an estimate f o r t h e MTBF of Region 1:
MTBFl = (MTBF*Nf

- CTBF2)/N1

To e v a l u a t e Region 1 TBF e s t i m a t e d (TBFE) a t t i m e (t), t h e t i m e t o t h e

f i r s t d a t a e n t r y (TL) and t h e MTFBl v a l u e must be c o n s i d e r e d .

A final.

c o n s i d e r a t i o n b e f o r e an estimate can be made i s t h e t y p e of d i s t r i b u t i o n

of

t h e d a t a i n Region 1.

tion,

To i l l u s t r a t e t h e i m p o r t a n c e of t h e d i s t r i b u -

c o n s i d e r t h a t a n a v e r a g e v a l u e of 50 can be o b t a i n e d w i t h bimodal

d a t a of

55 and 45, and 50 i s a l s o t h e a v e r a g e - v a l u e f o r uniform d a t a

between 1 and 99.

I n t h e s e a n a l y s e s , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n i s assumed uni-

form, and, t h u s , a random number (RND)

is g e n e r a t e d between 0 and 1 f o r

t h e equation
TBFE = 4/3*MTBFl*RND*g

T2*(1

- g) ,

where g i s a uniform f u n c t i o n between 1 and 0 a s r i n c r e a s e s from T l t o

T2.

Thus, g = (T2

1/2 r e s u l t s
Region 1.

- t)/T2.

Note t h a t 4 / 3 t i m e s an RND t h a t a v e r a g e s

i n an a v e r a g e 2/3

value

that

is

the geometric center

of

51

I n t e r n a l Distribution

1-3.
4.
5.
6,

7-13.

12.
13.
14.

W. B e r t i n i
D. W. Burton
Cantor
S I
G, A. D a i l y
R. C. D e t o z f e r
E. c. Fox
W. F u l ke r s o n
J. A. G e t s i
H a

15.
16-20.
21.
22.
23.
24-25.

26.

H. E.
V. K.

Trammel1

Wflkinson
ORNL P a t e n t O f f i c e
C e n t r a l Research L i b r a r y
Document R e f e r e n c e S e c t i o n
L a b o r a t o r y Records Department
L a b o r a t o r y R e c o r d s (RC)

External D i s t r i b u t i o n
27-29.

30.
31-33.

34.
35-61.

Jeff Keates, Naval A v i a t i o n L o g i s t i c s C e n t e r (Code 6311,

P a t u x e n t R i v e r , MD 20670-5449
Jennifer Lee, Naval A v i a t i o n L o g i s t i c s C e n t e r ( C o d e 6 3 1 1 ,
P a t u x e n t R i v e r , MD 20670-5449
L. E. Rowland, Naval A v i a t i o n L o g i s t i c s C e n t e r (Code 6 3 1 ) ,
P a t u x e n t River, MD 20670-5449
O f f i c e of A s s i s t a n t Manager f o r Energy Research and Development,
Department of Energy, ORO, Oak R i d g e , TN 37831
T e c h n i c a l I n f o r m a t i o n C e n t e r , Department of Energy, Oak Ridge,
TN 37831