ANALISIS KEPUTUSAN

RAHMI YUNIARTI, ST.,MT

TEKNIK INDUSTRI
UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA MALANG

Tujuan Instruksional Umum

Memahami konsep dasar dan paradigma permasalahan
keputusan, serta cara-cara yang digunakan untuk
memodelkan keputusan, ketidakpastian, dan preferensi
pengambil keputusan sehingga dapat menganalisis
dan memilih alternatif terbaik menurut kriteria-kriteria
yang ditetapkan

Referensi
Clemen, Robert T., (1995), Making Hard
Decisions, 2nd Edition, Duxbury Press
Holoway, Charles A. (1979), Decision
Making Under Uncertainty; Models and
Choices, Prentice Hall
Skinner, David C., Introduction to Decision
Analysis, 2nd Edition., Probabilistic, 1999

INTRODUCTION

Examples of decision Problems :

- In a cafetaria, you are to decide which food to choose
- In a factory, the engineering manager is consedering two
different construction sites for a factory expansion
Why Decision Analysis? Why not just using intuition?
# Basically we use analysis if the decision to make is a hard
decision problem. Hard decision requires hard thinking !
# Decision analysis provides structure and guidance for thinking
systematically about hard decisions.
# With decision analysis, a decision maker can take action with
confidence gained through a clear understanding about the
problem.

Why Are Decisions Hard?

Simply because its complexity
- Thus, decision problems need to be structured
The inherent uncertainty in the situation
- Thus, important to understand the source of uncertainty and
able to assess uncertainty
The problem is multi objective in nature
- Thus, a tool is needed to provide a trade off among conflicting
objectives
The decisions are sensitive to changes of input or differences in
perspectives
- Thus, a method for sensitivity analysis is needed

Contoh: Borda Count

Kompetisi mengarang lagu amatir di Slobonia dimana terdapat 4
pengarang lagu dan 7 orang juri. Penilaian dilakukan dengan aturan
bahwa lagu dengan kriteria yang ditetapkan mendapat nilai 4 dengan
nilai terkecil 1
Lagu

Total Nilai

1st

4th

3th

1st

4th

3th

1st

18

2nd

1st

4th

2nd

1st

4th

2nd

19

3th

2nd

1st

3th

2nd

1st

3th

20*

4th

3th

2nd

4th

3th

2nd

4th

13

Keputusan: lagu terbaik adalah C dengan ranking C B A D

Tetapi, muncul protes karena lagu D pengarangnya profesional yang
sebenarnya tidak boleh ikut kompetisi.
Apakah keputusan pemenang tetap lagu C?

Contoh: Borda Count

Penilaian diulang tanpa Lagu D
Lagu

Total Nilai

1st

3th

2nd

1st

3th

2nd

1st

15*

2nd

1st

3th

2nd

1st

3th

2nd

14

3th

2nd

1st

3th

2nd

1st

3th

13

Keputusan: lagu terbaik adalah A dengan ranking A B C

Good decision Vs Lucky Outcome

Good decision is that which follow that is
recommended by the results of a good analysis. Good
decision does not necessarily that which provides the
best out come. A good outcome as a result of an
intuition or an arbitrary choice is a lucky outcome
However, it is important to note that the results of a
decision analysis is not to be blidly accepted. There
should be a room for intuition or subjective judgement,
but then two should be complementary.

 Decision analysis will not solve a decision

problem, nor is intended to. Its purpose is
to produce insight and promote creativity
to help decision makers make better
decision. (Kenney, 1982)

Definisi Analisis Keputusan

Keeney and Raiffa, 1976
Prescriptive approach designed for normally intelligent people
who want to think hard and systematically about some important
real problems

A decision analysis is an information source

A decision analysis should not replace a decision maker
but should support him
A decision analysis not only provide solution, but also
provide insight to:
- Situation
- Uncertainty

- Objectives
- Trade off

Mengapa Analisis Keputusan diperlukan?

Secara psikologis manusia pada umumnya tidak memproses
informasi dan membuat keputusan dengan cara yang tidak
konsisten
Membantu memahami permasalahan dengan lebih baik
sehingga dapat membuat keputusan yang lebih baik
walaupun tidak menjamin memberikan hasil terbaik
Memberikan petunjuk yang jelas dalam melakukan
perancangan penyelesaian permasalahan real (kompleks)
secara sistematis
Untuk menyesuaikan terhadap tindakan yang diambil
sebelumnya agar keputusan tersebut benar-benar tepat
untuk dijalankan (memperbaiki kualitas keputusan)

An Example
Imagine that you are a manager in a company. You have
been working there for about 10 years. Your career has
been pretty good, but later you feel that there is little
opportunity for promotion and the situation is boring. You
have told this to a friend of you. He suggested to you to
resign and work on your own as a consultant. Your wife
however reject that idea. She argued that it is already a good
job with a good pay, you are happy with a family staying in a
relatively large and nice house. If you were that manager,
what is your decision? Please analyse your decision
problem.

The Process of Decision Analysis

1. Identify the problem
2. Identify objectives and alternatives
3. Decompose and model problem :

Structure the problem

Model uncertainty
Model preferences

4. Choose the best alternative

5. Do sensitivity analysis
6. If no further analysis is required, implement the
choosen alternative

Proses Analisis Keputusan (1)

1. Identifikasi Permasalahan
Seluruh aspek harus mendapat perhatian untuk
diidentifikasi
Pemahaman yang baik terhadap permasalahan
seringkali menyatakan permasalahan real yang
mungkin tersembunyi
Seringkali sulit untuk dilaksanakan dengan baik

2. Identifikasi Tujuan dan Alternatif

Menentukan tujuan yang akan dicapai
Mengembangkan alternatif untuk pemecahan
masalahnya
Kunci keberhasilan Analisis Keputusan pada langkah
ini

Proses Analisis Keputusan (2)

2. Identifikasi
Mengembangkan pola kreatifitas dari beberapa teknik
yang dapat dipakai untuk memunculkan dan
menemukan alternatif-alternatif yang baru
Memahami dengan baik terhadap aspek-aspek yang
terdapat disekitar permasalahan, pertimbangan
subjektif atau yang bersifat probabilistik

3. Pembuatan Model dan Pengambilan Keputusan

Menyusun permasalahan ke dalam struktur yang lebih
kecil dan lebih mudah ditangani
Melibatkan elemen-elemen ketidakpastian dan aspek
objektif
Merupakan pendekatan yang lebih kuantitatif dan lebih
mudah untuk dianalisis

Elements of Decisions Structure

The decision to be made
The possible course of action
(alternatives)
The possible outcomes that can result
The likelihood of those outcomes
Cost and benefits to be derived from
those outcomes

Kesimpulan
Analisis keputusan untuk membantu
seorang decision maker berpikir secara
sistematis tentang permasalahan yang
kompleks dan untuk meningkatkan
kualitas keputusan yang dihasilkan