Ag Hedge Daily Newsletter

2/09/2016
- Good morning from Chicago Get expert perspective on today's Ag markets from some of the most respected names in the industry. Zaner experts have been quoted in Dow Jones Newswires, AgWeb.com, Top
Producer, CME, CBOT & MGEX exchange publications, Futures Magazine, Stocks and Commodities Magazine, Forbes, BarChart.com, Tradingmarkets.com, CommodityTrader.com,
Financial Engineering News, Risk Controlled Investing and many other publications. Feel free to call us at: 312-277-0113 for more information.
Learn more about our Ag Hedge services
Note: Futures, options and forex trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. This material is conveyed as a solicitation for entering into a derivatives
transaction.

IMPORTANT NOTICES

OPENING CALLS

Feb 9: WASDE at 11:00am

Feb 11: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 16: Export Inspections at 10:00am & NOPA Crush at 11:00am
Feb 19: Export Sales at 7:30am & Cattle on Feed at 2:00pm Last Trade Options for March Chi, KC, MN wheat, corn,
soybeans, soyoil, soymeal
Feb 22: Export Inspection at 10:00am
Feb 23: Cold Storage at 2:00pm
Feb 25: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 28: Export Inspections at 10:00am First Notice for March Chi, KC, MN wheat, corn, soybeans, soyoil, soymeal

Corn:

down 1-2

Wheat:

up 0-1

Beans:

down 0-1

Cattle:
Hogs:
US $:
Crude:

down .450
down .20

GRAINS

52 Week
High

464-0 on
07/14/15

52 Week
High

629-4 on
06/30/15

52 Week
High

1044-2 on
07/14/15

52 Week
Low

348-4 on
01/07/16

52 Week
Low

456-0 on
01/04/16

52 Week
Low

847-0 on
11/23/15

20 Day MA 366-3

20 Day MA 474-0

20 Day MA 876-4

50 Day MA 367-0

50 Day MA 475-6

50 Day MA 876-3

100 Day MA 376-7

100 Day MA 491-7

100 Day
MA

880-1

Corn: ---Night Session Close: March down 16 at 3604 Dec down 16 at 3836
Opening the night at 3622, March traded to a session low at the supportive 3600 and in addition to support from trend line that might be found near 3592. Further support may be
found near 3570 while a double bottom remains at 3494 and the contract low stands at 3484. Posting a session high of 3626, the 364-365 region may offer initial support while the
10, 20, and 50 day moving averages are clustering from 366-368.
Soybeans: ---Night Session Close: March down 02 at 8622 Nov down 02 at 8770
Opening at 8626, March posted a low at 8614 to match yesterdays session low. The Jan-12 low of 8572 may offer some support while additional support is likely from the Jan-06
low of 8520. Trading to a session high of 8644, the 870 region may offer resistance with trend line resistance located near 8692. Further resistance from the moving averages is

clustered from 874-877.

Wheat: ---Night Session Close: March up 04 at 4590 Sept up 10 at 4780
Opening at 4586 and trading to a low of 4580, support stands at the contract low of 4560. Further support may be found at the psychological 450 mark. Posting a session high at
4602, trend line resistance might be found near 4620 while yesterdays session high stands at 4686. The 10 day moving average stands the lowest at 4714 while the 50 day
remains at 4756.
News:
--- Feb WASDE Estimates
Corn
US Ending Stocks: avg 1,815: range 1,752-1,947; previous 1,802
Global Ending Stocks: avg 208.32: range 203.5-213.0; previous 208.9
Brazil: avg 81.7: range 80.5-83.2; previous 81.5
Argentina: avg 25.3: range 23-27; previous 25.6
Soybean
US Ending Stocks: avg 449: range 425-49; previous 440
Global Ending Stocks: avg 79.09: range 76.4-81; previous 79.3
Brazil: avg 99.2: range 98-101; previous 100
Argentina: avg 57.3: range 56-59; previous 57
--- Russian Ag Minister was quoted as saying that Russian wheat exports may increase by 3% in 15/16
--- Due to domestic growing concerns in Ukraine, Ukraine has slowed sales in order to keep domestic supplies high to help alleviate bread shortages.
--- Rain showers in Australia are seen as beneficial to the current wheat crop and potentially raising yield.
--- Brazils Mato Grosso is seen at 12% complete with harvest; 4% less than last year due to damp harvest conditions.
--- On Monday the traditional funds sold 5,000 soybeans, 4,000 soyoil, 11,000 corn and 6,000 wheat. They are estimated to be net short 37,500 soybeans, 38,800 soymeal, 78,000
corn and 63,000 wheat. They are estimated to be net long 46,900 soyoil.
--- Brian

For more information, questions, or comments feel free to contact us or follow our team on Twitter:
Ted Seifried -- (312) 277-0113 -- tseifried@zaner.com -- @TheTedSpread
Tim Hackbarth -- (312) 277-0110 -- thackbarth@zaner.com -- @AgHedgingone
Brian Grossman -- (312) 277-0119 -- bgrossman@zaner.com -- @AgHedgeGrossman

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MEATS

52 Week
High

156.300 on
06/10/15

52 Week
High

214.150 on
06/11/15

52 Week
High

72.975 on
05/12/15

52 Week

121.975 on

52 Week

143.200 on

52 Week

53.975 on

Low

12/17/15

Low

12/17/15

Low

11/17/15

20 Day MA 132.911

20 Day MA 161.093

20 Day MA 63.665

50 Day MA 131.827

50 Day MA 159.532

50 Day MA 60.699

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

134.857

168.726

62.612

Cattle futures picked up right where last week ended and extended losses trading sharply lower and locking limit down on negative news from cash & cutouts.
Cash was a real headscratcher last week as bids went from 136 to 138 where they held through Friday only to see bids drop back off to 136 with very light trade. This was down $2.00
from previous week. Owners seem a tad bit over confident given cutouts have been stagnant. The over-eager asking prices of $141/$142 never got a sniff. Fridays afternoon cutout
was down $2.50 and Monday morning already seeing another dip of .89 cents to 219.71. Not constructive to higher prices.
Outside market influence sees sharply lower stocks which will not lend to consumer confidence picking up anytime soon. Commodities have tracked pretty well to stock performance
which does not bode too well to begin a new week. Hopefully the lack of beef movement last week works in owners favor as week passes.
Demand of late has seen rising exports and ever so slight decrease in imports. Thats the right equation for sure but the U.S. dollar strength or prolonged weakness will have a say.
Dollar was down $2.60 last week and is down another .14 as of now. Makes our exports look better
Grain prices have been slipping and Tuesdays USDA report has many analysts looking for lower grain prices in the near-term. Slightly supportive for cattle.
Tim

LINKS

Cash Grain Bids

US Weather

South American Weather

In this newsletter we do not email specific trade recommendations. As each client's situation is unique, we craft strategies to fit our individual client's needs. Please feel free to call us
at 312-277-0113 for a personalized recommendation.