Ag Hedge Daily Newsletter

2/08/2016
- Good morning from Chicago Get expert perspective on today's Ag markets from some of the most respected names in the industry. Zaner experts have been quoted in Dow Jones Newswires, AgWeb.com, Top
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transaction.

IMPORTANT NOTICES

OPENING CALLS

Feb 8: Export Inspections at 10:00am & First Notice for Feb Live Cattle
Feb 9: Crop Production & WASDE at 11:00am
Feb 11: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 16: Export Inspections at 10:00am & NOPA Crush at 11:00am
Feb 19: Export Sales at 7:30am & Cattle on Feed at 2:00pm Last Trade Options for March Chi, KC,
MN wheat, corn, soybeans, soyoil, soymeal
Feb 22: Export Inspection at 10:00am
Feb 23: Cold Storage at 2:00pm
Feb 25: Export Sales at 7:30am
Feb 28: Export Inspections at 10:00am First Notice for March Chi, KC, MN wheat, corn, soybeans,
soyoil, soymeal

Corn:

down 1-3

Wheat:

down 2-4

Beans:

down 2-4

Cattle:
Hogs:
US $:

up .350

Crude:

down .90

GRAINS

52 Week
High

464-0 on
07/14/15

52 Week
High

629-4 on
06/30/15

52 Week
High

1044-2 on
07/14/15

52 Week
Low

348-4 on
01/07/16

52 Week
Low

456-0 on
01/04/16

52 Week
Low

847-0 on
11/23/15

20 Day MA 366-0

20 Day MA 474-6

20 Day MA 876-4

50 Day MA 367-2

50 Day MA 476-3

50 Day MA 876-6

100 Day MA 377-2

100 Day MA 492-2

100 Day
MA

880-4

Corn: ---Night Session Close: March down 16 at 3640 Dec down 22 at 3870
Ending the week poorly, March started the new week at 3660 and posted a session low at 3636; ending just shy of filling the gap down to 3634; which may offer some support.
Further trend line support may be found near 3594. Trading to a session high of 3662, resistance from a cluster of moving averages ranges from 3660 to 3690 while the recent high
from Feb-02 stands at 3736.
Soybeans: ---Night Session Close: March down 24 at 8650 Nov down 42 at 8790
Falling through most levels of support left on the chart, March opened the night session at 8674 and posted a session low of 8634. Support is possible from the Jan-06 low of 8520
and followed by the contract low of 8470. Posting a session high at 8686, trend line resistance stands near 8686 while further resistance is likely from the moving average cluster

ranging from 8760 to 8804.

Wheat: ---Night Session Close: March down 26 at 4640 Sept down 24 at 4816
Opening the night at 4660, March traded to a session low of 4640. Trend line support may be found at 4632. Further support is likely from the contract low of 4560, set on Jan-04.
Posting a session high of 4670, resistance is possible from the cluster of moving averages ranging from 4744 to 4764.

News:
--- USDA sale of 100,000 tons of corn to Mexico for 15/16
--- Baker Hughes US crude oil rig count fell 31 to 467 and natural gas rigs down 17 to 104
--- Argentinas president announced an increasing mandate to blend 12% ethanol vers the previous 10%
--- Heavy rains were reported in key drought stricken regions of Argentina over the weekend
--- Brazils harvest progress is estimated at 8-9% complete, nearly doubling from last week.
--- Feb WASDE Estimates
Corn
US Ending Stocks: avg 1,815: range 1,752-1,947; previous 1,802
Global Ending Stocks: avg 208.32: range 203.5-213.0; previous 208.9
Brazil: avg 81.7: range 80.5-83.2; previous 81.5
Argentina: avg 25.3: range 23-27; previous 25.6
Soybean
US Ending Stocks: avg 449: range 425-49; previous 440
Global Ending Stocks: avg 79.09: range 76.4-81; previous 79.3
Brazil: avg 99.2: range 98-101; previous 100
Argentina: avg 57.3: range 56-59; previous 57
--- Chinese officials issued a strong statement warning farmers against planting unapproved GM variety crops amidst ChemChinas agreed purchase for Syngenta
--- The Baltic Exchanges main sea freight index set a new all-time low for the 9th straight day on Friday as fears of a slowing global economy remain.
--- On Friday the traditional funds sold 7,000 soybeans, 5,000 soymeal, 8,000 corn and 9,000 wheat. They are estimated to be net short 32,500 soybeans, 38,800 soymeal, 67,000
corn and 57,000 wheat; they are estimated to be net long 50,900 soyoil.
--- Brian

For more information, questions, or comments feel free to contact us or follow our team on Twitter:
Ted Seifried -- (312) 277-0113 -- tseifried@zaner.com -- @TheTedSpread
Tim Hackbarth -- (312) 277-0110 -- thackbarth@zaner.com -- @AgHedgingone
Brian Grossman -- (312) 277-0119 -- bgrossman@zaner.com -- @AgHedgeGrossman

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MEATS

52 Week
High

156.300 on
06/10/15

52 Week
High

214.150 on
06/11/15

52 Week
High

72.975 on
05/12/15

52 Week
Low

121.975 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

143.200 on
12/17/15

52 Week
Low

53.975 on
11/17/15

20 Day MA 132.902

20 Day MA 161.093

20 Day MA 63.406

50 Day MA 131.816

50 Day MA 159.532

50 Day MA 60.549

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

100 Day
MA

134.951

168.726

62.646

Cattle/Feeder cattle futures had a rough end of the week closing sharply lower on Friday. Front-month March feeders closed down $3.00 on the day and down $4.00 on the week
while the fed cattle fared better with front-month February contract down $1.20 on the day but UP 60 cents on the week.
Cutouts remained steady at $222/$223 all week. This is neither bearish nor constructive to higher prices for beef. Those who like the Choice/Select spread, its at $4.00.
Feeder Index was down 1 cent to 159.67. This also reiterates the stagnant pricing last week.
Average dressed steer weights for the week ending January 23rd came in at 899 pounds, up from 898 the previous week and up 2.2% from a year ago. The 5-year average weekly
weight for that week is 866.2.
Technicals were triggered on the move lower on Friday as we filled the March feeder gap from $154.85 down to $154.22. The trade never recovered.
Slaughter came in above expectations at 111,000 head. This brings the total for the week so far to 392,000 head, down from 444,000 last week at this time and down from 430,000 a
year ago.
Cash?? Where o where is cash this week? Its Friday afternoon and cash is keeping us waiting. Bids at $138 & asking prices at $140/$141. At least steady if not better than week ago
so makes one wonder why the pullback on futures today? Perhaps nothing more than simple profit taking. TBCU.S. Dollar was a weak performer last week falling $2.60 which is a very important aspect to our imports/exports. Hoping to see improved beef movement near-term from this.
Tim

LINKS

Cash Grain Bids

US Weather

South American Weather

In this newsletter we do not email specific trade recommendations. As each client's situation is unique, we craft strategies to fit our individual client's needs. Please feel free to call us
at 312-277-0113 for a personalized recommendation.