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Goal Seek is a
valuable feature that lets the user back into the value for an unknown variable in an equation. For
example, the typical financing arrangement for leasing a car will usually provide an interest rate
and lease term, such as 6% over 60 months for a car valued at $25,000. Using the PMT formula
in Excel, the estimated payment for these lease terms is $483.32.
Here is the layout of the key variables, as well as the output provided by Goal Seek:
Car Loan Repayment Schedule
Interest Rate
0.06
Loan Duration
60
25000
Payment
$483.32
But let's say you have a few extra dollars and are interested in knowing how long the loan will
last when you spend $500 a month for the same 6% interest rate. Using Goal Seek, here is what
the inputs would look like:
According to Goal Seek, upping the monthly payment slightly would shave more than two
months off the loan duration. Here are the outputs:
Car Loan Repayment Schedule
Interest Rate
0.06
Loan Duration
57.6801385
25000
Payment
$500.00
FV Function
You may have already noticed that the Future Value or "FV Function" in Excel was part of the
discussion for the analyst valuing the stock, above. If we keep all of the variables the same, but
assume we know the current firm value is $350,000, or $35 per share, then the future value of the
stock in 10 years would be $84.53 per share. Here is what the inputs would look like:
VLookup
As you might have already guessed, the VLookup function is similar to HLookup, but the data
you are looking for will be vertical, or in a column in Excel. The inputs are actually the same, the
only difference will be how the data in an Excel file database are arranged. Returning to the
above example, the price and quantities would be listed vertically in an Excel column.
Guide To Excel For Finance: Linking Yahoo! Finance and Other Outside Financial Data To
Excel
Today, there is literally a multitude of ways to link external stock market data into Excel. The
point of downloading data is to be able to customize and manipulate it to create your own
formulas, which can be refreshed throughout the day as stocks change in value, or as often as
you would like to refresh the steady stream of market information coming in.
Yahoo! Finance offers the capability to download basic stock price information into Excel. For
users who have created their own portfolios, in Yahoo! Finance there is a link or "Download"
function to save the information into an Excel workbook. Data that can currently be downloaded
includes current stock prices, the daily high and low prices and daily trading volume.
Additionally, it is possible to download just about any data from the Internet into Excel. In Excel
under the "Data" menu, choose to download data from the web or "From Web," which is the
specific menu item in Excel. A separate pop-up will open and allow the input of literally any
website. Returning to Yahoo! Finance and the "Statistics" portion for Textron Corp, yellow areas
show where you can download specific data. Clicking on the download will populate the data
into Excel. Below is a screen shot of information that was downloaded.
7.51B
10.75B
19.2
11.42
0.4
Price/Sales (ttm):
0.61
Price/Book (mrq):
2.36
0.9
9.29
Current Qtr.
Next Qtr.
Current Year
Next Year
12-Sep
12-Dec
12-Dec
13-Dec
0.52
0.6
2.1
2.34
No. of Analysts 14
13
14
15
Low Estimate
0.46
0.53
1.98
2.1
High Estimate
0.56
0.67
2.2
2.6
0.45
0.49
1.31
2.1
Avg. Estimate
At the current share price of $26.72 for Textron, the P/E ratio of 12.72 is calculated as follows in
Excel:
PEG Ratio
Under the "Analyst Estimates" portion of Textron's information in Yahoo! Finance, here is what
we were able to download into Excel using the "From Web" feature
Industr
S&P
y
Sector 500
Growth Est
TXT
Current Qtr.
15.60% 10.30%
55.80% 7.80%
Next Qtr.
22.40% 35.10%
26.10% 18.40%
This Year
60.30% 22.60%
43.70% 8.40%
Next Year
11.40% 16.20%
-6.40% 13.40%
19.32% N/A
N/A
31.23
%
15.97%
16.72% 10.04%
12.41
9.63
12.57
15.47
0.4
1.1
1.96
3.84
N/A
As you can see, the PEG ratio is already provided, but can also be calculated by creating a
formula in excel that divides the P/E ratio we calculated above by the projected growth rate of
31.23%. The final result is a PEG ratio of 0.40.
P/S Ratio
As with the PEG ratio, Yahoo! Finance provided the price to sales ratio above; but returning to
the "Analyst Estimates" portion for Textron, below is the information we were able to download:
Current
Qtr.
Next
Qtr.
Current
Year
Next
Year
12-Sep
12-Dec
12-Dec
13-Dec
Avg. Estimate
3.06B
3.50B
12.43B
13.16B
No. of Analysts
11
11
12
13
Low Estimate
3.01B
3.30B
12.15B
12.70B
High Estimate
3.11B
3.67B
12.64B
13.55B
2.81B
3.25B
11.28B
12.43B
Sales Growth
(year/est)
8.80%
7.40%
10.30%
5.80%
Revenue Est
Analysts project full year sales of $12.43 billion for Textron for all of 2012. Creating a cell that
divides the current market capitalization of $7.51 billion (also provided in the previous page) by
sales gets us to a price-to-sales ratio of 0.61, which matches with what Yahoo! has provided.
Dividend Payout Ratio
Yahoo! provides dividend payout information under the "Key Statistics" portion for Textron.
Below is output from the "Dividend & Split" data:
Dividends & Splits
Forward Annual Dividend Rate4:
0.08
0.30%
0.08
0.30%
1.80%
Payout Ratio:
6.00%
Dividend Date:
30-Sep-12
Ex-Dividend Date:
12-Sep-12
2:01
27-Aug-07
Textron's current annual dividend payout is 8 cents per share. Creating a cell to divide this by the
current share price of $26.72 leads to a current dividend rate of 0.30%. The payout ratio is 8
cents divided by last year's earnings level of $1.31 per share (provided above), which works out
to 6.1%.
EV/EBITDA
Returning one last time to "Key Statistics" in Yahoo! Finance for Textron, the below income
statement data was downloaded into Excel:
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm):
11.94B
42.73
10.70%
1.97B
EBITDA (ttm):
1.16B
412.00M
1.39
91.10%
Creating a cell that divides Enterprise Value (provided above) of $10.75 billion and dividing it by
EBITDA of $1.16 billion results in an EV-to-EBITDA ratio of 9.3, which agrees with what
Yahoo! also calculated.
Guide To Excel For Finance: Technical Indicators
Microsoft offers sophisticated statistical and engineering analysis capabilities with its Analysis
ToolPak. Stock market charts and related technical indicators can be manipulated using this
service, but there aren't really any specific technical analysis features directly in the Excel
application.
However, there are a number of third-party applications that can be purchased and used as "addins" to supplement Excel's statistical package. Additionally, a number of technical indicators can
be created using basic charts and formulas in Excel. Below is an overview of a number of
primary technical indicators, and how they can be created in Excel.
Pivot Points
Pivot points (PP) are closely related to support and resistance levels, which are covered in more
detail below. In its most simple form, a pivot point is calculated by taking the average of the
high, low, and closing price for a stock or financial asset (below is an example in Excel.) Trading
levels can be easily entered into Excel, or through data downloads from Yahoo! Finance, as
detailed in the previous section. This pivot point forms the basis for support and resistance levels,
as detailed next.
Subtotal and aggregate numeric data, summarize data by categories and subcategories
and create custom calculations and formulas.
Expand and collapse levels of data to focus your results and drill down to details from the
summary data for areas of interest to you.
Move rows to columns or columns to rows (or "pivoting") to see different summaries of
the source data.
Filter, sort, group and conditionally format the most useful and interesting subset of data
to enable you to focus on the information that you want.
Bollinger Bands
A Bollinger Band is a band plotted two standard deviations away from a simple moving average.
Below is a chart of Bollinger Bands:
A blog providing an overview of technical analysis for beginners recently provided an overview
of how a Bollinger Band can be created in Excel. Below is an overview of the primary inputs:
Column , values and formulas to create:
A = Company Name/date
B = Open
C = High
D = Low
E = LTP/close
F = Volumes
Moving Averages
A moving average is used to track trends in the way a stock or financial asset trades. It is
intended to smooth out daily fluctuations and indicate if the asset might be trading above, at or
below certain trends over time.
With existing data that includes a date and daily trading levels, a moving average can be
calculated in Excel. The "AVERAGE" function in Excel will be used to calculate moving
averages for certain intervals, such as a 50-day or 200-day moving average. Then, it can be
determined how the asset is currently trading in relation to this moving average.
Relative Strength Index
The relative strength index, or RSI, can be calculated in Excel via a straightforward cell
calculation. The RSI is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent
gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an
asset.It is calculated using the following formula:
RSI = 100 - 100/(1 + RS*)
RS is equal to the Average of x days' up closes, divided by the Average of x days' down closes.
However, there are more complicated ways to look to estimate dividends, including at rates that
change over time. Below is an example of just how complicated the exercise can become:
NewCo
11/22/10
17.00%
11.00%
4.00%
85.00%
60.00%
20.00%
$ 3,688
$ 20,119
10.00%
10.00%
IV per
Share
$ 37
Bond Valuation
There are a number of bond valuation functions in Excel. The "PRICE" function returns the
estimated market value of a bond with a $100 face value. Below are the details of the metrics
needed to value such a bond, which happens to be $90.20, based on the inputs provided.
Other bond functions include the ability to calculate a bond's duration, modified duration, yield
to maturity, yield, and discount rate.Basically, there is the ability to solve for any variable when
valuing a bond.
Guide To Excel For Finance: Advanced Calculations
Monte Carlo Simulation
In its most basic form, the Monte Carlo simulation seeks to simulate real-world outcomes by
showing a range of outcomes for a given variable set. For example, in the casino game roulette,
Monte Carlo could simulate where the roulette ball lands for 10 consecutive rounds.
Excel's "RAND" function can generate random numbers in a given sample set. By simply setting
the formula equal to RAND, Excel will generate a random number between 0 and 1. To detail the
range of possible outcomes, Microsoft states that around 25% of the time, a number less than or
equal to 0.25 should occur, and around 20% of the time the number will be at least 0.90, which is
logical and intuitive, given the outcomes are restricted to such a tight range.
Excel offers a number of other ways to simulate random variable outcomes. For instance, the
"NORMINV" function returns the inverse of the normal distribution for a specified mean and
standard deviation.
Black-Scholes Formula
The valuation of stock options can be incredibly complex and math-intensive. Excel offers a
number of ways to price stock options, including the more plain vanilla puts and calls. The
Black-Scholes formula is the most widely adopted measure for valuing an option. Its inputs are
as follows:
S=Today's stock price
t=Duration of the option (in years)
X=Exercise price
r=Annual risk-free rate (This rate is assumed to be continuously compounded.)
=Annual volatility of stock
y=Percentage of stock value paid annually in dividends
Excel doesn't have an actual formula employing Black-Scholes, but there are add-ins, as well as
additional outside files that can be downloaded to help the user calculate the value of a put or call
option.
Time Value of Money
The time value of money generally relates to the concepts of present value and future value, as
explained previously in the PV Functions and FV Functions. The basic forms of the time value of
money, which consists of multiplying an initial present value by an interest rate to get to a future
value, can easily be calculated via a single cell calculation in Excel.
The more complicated theories, including DCF, DDM and RIM, require more sophisticated
modeling techniques in Excel and have also been touched upon in previous pages.