Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
AND CONTROL
2+1+0
Module 1
Introduction to PPC: need for PPC, effect, advantages, functions and problems
of PPC.
Forecasting: methods of sales forecasting-forecasting for new productsforecasting for established products-time series analysis for sale forecasting
long term forecasting methods of estimating Sales trend- problems- correlation
analysis.
Module 2
Production planning: objectives-characteristics-process planning. Capacity
planning- factors affecting-Master production scheduling-material requirement
planning BOM and product structure.
Production control: objectives- production control systems- principle and
procedure of production Control.
Routing: objectives- procedure route sheets.
Module 3
Sequencing assumptions: solution of sequencing problems-processing n jobs
through two machines
Processing n jobs through three machines processing n jobs through m
machines processing two
Jobs through m machines-problems
Module 4
Materials management: Components of integrated material management
Purchasing management- stores management. Supply chain management ERPRole of I.T.
Module 5
Loading and scheduling: aim- reasons for scheduling- master scheduling or
aggregate scheduling
Estimating shop loads- short term scheduling mathematical loading and
scheduling- problemsScheduling through PERT / CPM problems.
Despatching- duties- procedure- rules.
Follow up and reporting- types-report preparation and presentation.
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
E.S.Buffa
J.Apple
Mcycss
K.C.jani& L.N.Aggarwal
Volfman, Berry, Whybark systems
R.Paneerselvam
Jeremy F Shapiro
MODULE 1
PPC Defined:
Any manufacturing activity requires resource input in terms of men, materials,
capital and machines. In any business that produces goods and services, production
activity must be related to market demands as indicated by the continuous stream of
customers orders. For maximum effectiveness, this must be done keeping the customer
satisfied and at the same time production activities are carried on in an economic
manner.
Organisation, for construction and other work where co-operative endeavour was
required.
In industry methods of organising, planning, supervising and controlling the flow
of production were developed at least as early as the days of Adam Smith writing in
1776, he described the process of making ordinary brass pins. He makes a distinction
between the production line worker, the person who designs the machine and handles
other engineering problems, and the manager who plan, organise, supervise, observe,
and control the operation. These distinctions are basic to much of modem management.
Beginning of Work Measurement. Studies in work measurement were made from
time to time in both the USA and UK. Some of these studies included the use of
stopwatch. An interesting study of this nature was made by Thomas Jefferson in 1769 as
he began to dig the foundation of new home near Charlottesville, Virginia. He estimated
the amount of dirt that one person could dig and haul away in a day of 12 hours.
Standards of this kind constituted the essential feature of the Taylor system of
management which was developed later.
Standardisation of Product. Another early development was the production of
parts according to specifications in such manner that the parts were interchangeable. Eli
Whitney is credited with having developed the principle of interchangeable parts in the
manufacture of muskets.
Development of Manufacturing Methods. In the beginning of about 1775 a
number of machines were developed for the manufacture of cloth, which was one of the
most important industries. The changes in methods of production soon extended to other
industries with the invention of the steam engine, the cotton gin, the steam boat, the
reaper and other machines. These inventions not only revolutionised methods of
production on farms and in factories that used the machine but also gave rise to new
industries for the manufacture of machines and machine parts used in their production.
With the introduction of new machines larger factories were built to employ
larger number of people. The work of production was further sub-divided into smaller
tasks to provide for greater specialisation among the workers. Attention was directed to
such problems as plant location, plant layout, methods of moving materials and the
design of factory buildings, machines were gradually improved and new machines were
invented from time to time.
Development of Management Methods. During the first half of the ninete~nt.\1
century attention began to be directed towards such management problems as personnel
relations, hours of work, fatigue and market relationships.
Scientific Management: Scientific management is the name given to a new
movement which began in a small way in the later part of the nineteenth century and
received national prominence in the first two decades of the present century. The new
system was characterised by a spirit of inquiry, the questioning of all conventional
management, methods and technique and an attempt to promulgate basic management
principles. Probably the best known of these persons associated with the new movement
were F.W. Taylor, H.L. Gantt, Frank B.L.M. Gilbreth.
Taylor's work was in tune with the vaunted reputation of contemporary scientific
investigations and, therefore, he lodged his concepts under the title of scientific
management. His theories received both acclaim and abuse. Critics forecasted that his
mechanistic views enforced by efficiency experts would completely de-humanise
industry but others saw them as logic applied to a promising new area. Whether people
agreed with him or not, his beliefs and the fervor with which he expounded them,
strongly stimulated industrial management.
An associate of Taylor, Henry L. Gantt, developed methods of sequencing
production activities which are still in use today.
Operations-oriented thinking took new substance from the literal as well as
figurative marriage of engineering and psychology in the husband -wife team of Frank
and Lillon Gilbreth, the mechanistic attitudes of engineer Frank were mitigated by the
humanistic attitudes of psychologist Lillain. Together they showed that basic human
motion patterns are common to many different work situations. Their analysis of
micromotions to improve manual operations initiated time and motion studies and the
use of motion pictures in work design.
In the 1920's and 1930's things become more complicated as it was realised that
people did not always behave as intuitively expected and that the complicities of
emerging production processes required more controls. As demonstrated by the famous
Hawthrone studies, the carrot of better wages or working conditions did not always lead
to proportional increase in output, psychological factors such as morale and attention
were influential.
An interdisciplinary approach to system studies appeared in the war years of
1940's first in the form of British operational research teams.
The 1940's also saw the birth of the electronic computer. Today its influence is
apparent throughout industry. Equivalently, The capabilities of computers must be
utilised if we expect to relate and evaluate the many variables in complex production
systems.
less subconsciously in the same manner that the nervous system automatically regulates
one's breathing. When less repetitive activity is involved, more conscious direction is
necessary; both in the plant and in the human system.
Customer demands are likely to differ in quantities and delivery schedules and
this will lead to large fluctuations in the production levels. So to meet any demand, it is
desirable to have planning for production in future time periods for inventories of
finished goods and meet part of market demands from such finished goods inventories.
Furthermore, the lead times involved in procurement of manufacturing imputs warrant
planning for production in advance. This is particularly so, in the Indian context, with
specific reference to industrial raw materials. Also, requirements of skilled manpower
necessitate such planning where time factor involved in training personnel is rather
large. Also the socio-political structure in India makes it quite difficult for an
organisation to have varying manpower levels. This, again, necessitates production
planning in order to smooth out the needs for manpower.
Another reason why PPC is necessary, is the need to meet changes in demands
due to trend, cyclical and reasonal factors. Long-run changes in demand are taken care
of by change in overall capacity by expansion and or new facilities. However, in short
run, these will have to be taken care of by such factors as sub-contracting, using
overtime and building up inventories. Needless to say, in planning production for these
purposes, one should take into consideration the changes in production levels over future
periods in order to economise the cost of production. This is an important factor which
necessitates planning for production and exercising control.
Moreover, production operations are subject to variety of uncertainties ~uch as
emergency order, breakdown, material shortages and various other contingencies. PPC
provides a way to take these factors into considerations.
2.4
EFFECTS PF PPC
(ii)
Plant utilisation. With ever increasing capital investment per producer in industry,
making fuller use of plant is of growing importance. Experience and research has
shown that in many types of plant the capital saving due to improved load factors
are proving the most substantial of all. These improvements are also being
achieved through better labour effectiveness.
(iit) Use of services. Again economic in the use of steam, water, air and electricity may
be paramount factors.
(iv) Quality of product. It may be sometimes desirable for economic or other reasons, to
improve the quality of product new or more consistent standard.
(v)
Process efficiency. An operator can have a far more significant effect on process
efficiency than was previously envisaged.
(vi)
Standard of safety. In dealing with many products quite apart from the normal
good standards a particularly high level of safety may be important, which is being
achieved by it.
Effectiveness of work. The work should be such that it meets the ego and emotion
of the worker and he feels the pride over it. In other words, the objective of
management is to choose right man for right job at right place at right time on right
wages and salaries.
(ii)
Interest in work. The worker should take interest in work and he will put the heart
and hand in performing the task is another prime aim of good management. .
(iii) Waiting time. The waiting time should remain minimum for the want of material
tools, equipment, supervision, inspection, delivery, etc. It can only be achieved
when the worker on the work will help fully and take interest in it.
(iv) Need for supervision. To make the worker expert and self-dependent in normal
day to day work is the other aim of the management. The supervisory time should
be reduced. The supervisors should be left to perform the task of planning,
coordination, motivation, control and feedback informations only.
(v)
Ideas for new methods. Workers, working on the machine are said to be the best
man for new idea and suggestions, as he knows the various aspect of work fully.
To give encouragement to the worker for new ideas and new method the PPC is
brought in picture.
(vi) Team spirit. To develop the team spirit and feeling of brotherhoodness among
workers is another aim. The workers should do the work as a team, and should do
the work as a team, and should recognise their value and status in company as a
group not individuals.
(vii) Absenteeism. To minimise and regulate the absenteeism, PPC may be introduced.
(viii) Labour turnover. It helps the turnover to its minimum.
follows:
(i) Production control.
(a) It facilitates in receipts, shipment and delivery.
(b) It paces production.
(c) It reduces conflict among workers.
(d) It helps in production time predictable.
(e) It helps in scheduling and dispatching automatically.
(f) If helps in setting up production centres.
(g) It reduces the number of parts and their cost and helps in mismatched part.
(h) Reduces the numbers of stock chasers.
(i) Reduces the production control expenses.
(ii) Quality Control and Waste Reduction. PPC helps in :
(a) Maintaining the rigid quality control.
(b) Minimising the wastes, scrap and rework.
(c) Minimising the rectification hours.
(d) Cost of inspection is reduced.
(e) Reduction of variations in manufactured goods.
(iii) Advantages in the manufacturing Costs. These can be briefed as follows:
(a) Decreased maintenance cost.
(b) Decreased tool replacement.
(c) Effects a saving in power load.
(d) Decrease in spoilage and scrap.
(e) Reduced raw material wastage.
(c) Company can stand in competition as cost of production per unit of production is
less.
(d) Marketing staff can be procured at lower initial investment, moreover this staff will
be of
better quality, and of higher excellence in all fields.
(e) Risk carrying cost decreases.
(f) Cost of advertising reduces.
(g) Market research cost declines.
From Worker's point of view.
Under this caption, we include the following:
(a) Reduced efforts of the worker.
(b) Reduced number of handling.
(c) Reduced fatigue and boredom.
(d) Acquires process of specialization.
(e) It permits working at maximum efficiency.
(f) Higher morale and team spirit.
(g) Job satisfaction and job pride.
(h) Reduced number of accidents.
(i) High earnings which helps him :
1. To raise standard of living.
2. To satisfy all his physiological demands more effectively and efficiently.
3. Can maintain his family up-to-date, e.g. better education of children,
better housing, better food and clothes etc.
must be available when required to ensure that each production of operation will start on
time. Duties include the specification of materials (both with respect to dimensions and
quality) quantities and availability; delivery dates, standardization and reduction of
variety, procurement and inspection. This function also covers the procurement of semifinished products from subcontractors.
(ii) Methods.
(a) The purpose of this function is to analyse possible methods of manufacture
and to try to define the best method compatible with a given set of circumstances and
facilities. This analysis covers both the general study and selection of production
processes (for the manufacture of components or assemblies) and the detailed
development and specifications of methods of application.
(b) such a study results in determining the sequence of operations and the
division of the product in to assemblies and sub-assemblies, modified by the limitations
of existing layout and work flow.
(iii) Machines and equipments :
Methods of manufacture have to be related to available production, facilities,
coupled a detailed study of equipment replacement policy. Maintenance policy,
procedure and schedules are also functions connected with managerial responsibility for
equipment, since the whole problem of break. downs and reserves can be seriously
reflected in halts in production tool management, as well as problems both design and
economy of jigs and fixtures, constitutes some of the major duties of production
planning and control.
(iv) Routing:
Once the overall methods and sequence of operations have been laid down, each
stage in production is broken down to define each operation in detail; after which the
issue of production orders can be planned. Routing prescribes the flow of work in the
plant and is related to considerations of layout of temporary storage locations for raw
materials and components and of material handling systems. Routing is fundamental
orders and instruction and in accordance with previously planned times and sequences as
embodied in route sheets and loading schedules'. Despatching authorizes the start of the
production operations by releasing materials, components, tools, fixtures and instruction
sheets to the operator, and ensures that material movement is carried out according to the
planned routing sheets and schedules.
(viii) Expediting:
This control tool is t:1)~ executive arm that keeps a close watch on the progress
of the work expediting or 'follow up' or 'progress' as it is some times called, is logical
step after despatching. Despatching maintains them and sees them through to their
successful completion. This function has to keep close liaison with scheduling, in order
to provide efficient feed-back and prompt review of targets and schedules.
(ix) Inspection:
Another major control function is that of inspection. Although the control of
quality is often detached from the production planning and control department, its
findings and criticisms are of supreme importance both in the execution of current plans
and in the planning stage of future undertakings. When the limitations of processes,
methods and manpower are kn0wn, then these limitations can form a base for future
investigations in evaluating, with the view to improving production methods, or
indicating the cost implications of quality at the design stage.
(x) Evaluating:
Perhaps the most neglected function, but on an essential link between control and
future planning, is that of evaluating. The executive tasks of despatching and expediting
are concerned with the immediate issues of production and with measures that will as
certain the fulfilment of set targets. Valuable information is gathered in this process, but
the feedback mechanism is rather limited in nature and unless provision is made so that
all this accumulated information can be properly digested and analysed, valuable data
may be irretrievably lost. Thus l1ere the evaluating function comes in, to provide a feedback mechanism on a longer term basis so that past experience can be evaluated with the
view to improving utilisation of methods and facilities. Many firms consider this
function important enough to divorce part of it from production, planning and control
land to establish it as a separate department in its own right, in which wider aspects of
production management can be studied, using modern tools of operations research.
Whatever the scope of evaluating in the production planning and control department,
this process is an integral part of the function.
The ten functions were listed above in the order of their operation. As shown in
Fig. 2.1, they are related to three stages, preplanning, planning and control. .
Preplanning:
This covers an analysis of data and outline of basic planning policy based on
sales, reports, market research and product development and design on the broad aspects
of planning, this stage is connected with problems of equipment policy and replacement,
new processes and materials, layout and work flow.
Preplanning production as a production planning and control responsibility is
also preoccupied with collection data on the '4M's, i.e. on materials, methods, machines
and manpower, mainly with respect to availability, scope and capacity.
Planning.
When the task has been specified a thorough analysis of the" 4 M's" is first under
taken to select the appropriate materials, methods and facilities by means of which; the
work can be accomplished, as already mentioned. This analysis is followed by outing,
estimating and scheduling. The more detailed, realistic and precise the planning, the
great conformity to schedules achieved during production and subsequently the greater
the efficiency of the plant. There are two aspects of planning, a short term one,
connected with immediate production programmes, and a long term phase, where plans
for the more distant future are considered and shaped~ Prominent planning functions are
these dealing with standardisation and simplification of products, materials and methods.
Control:
This stage is effected by means of despatching, inspection and expediting.
Control of inventories, control of scraps, analysis of work in process, and control of
transportation are essentially links of this stage. Finally, evaluation takes place to
responsibility of several department, e.g. the question of limiting the variety of finished
products would involve the sales department, production department and the design
office, while questions relating to simplification of materials would also include
inventory control considerations and perhaps involve the research and development
department. Some aspects of simplification and standardisation are major responsibilities
of the production planning and control department, such as problems relating to
machines and methods.
Time and Motion study: This field is closely allied to efficient utilisation of
manpower and scheduling problems. Time and motion study consists of two fields of
activity, operation analysis and work measurement.
(a) Operation analysis or method study. Which as the name suggests, consists of a
evaluation, selection and development of an efficient method to perform a given
task. Operation analysis is concerned both with problems of limited scope (such as
operator's work place layout, an activity study of a gang of operators or correlation
of machine, operator activities) and overall studies of the process, in which all
aspects of routing, plant, layout and scheduling may play an important role.
(b) Work measurement. Which is concerned with stabilising standard times for the
vari9us operations in the process for the estimating function in production planning.
As already mentioned no scheduling can ever be attempted before some data on
performance times becomes available.
From the foregoing remarks it should be appreciated that time and motion study
is employed both at the planning and control stages. Development of methods and
information regarding the measurement of processing times can be obtained in two
ways.
(a) By synthesis based on past experience of similar circumstances, where the same
processes are employed. Synthesis is an important tool at the planning stage.
(b) By analysis of an existing production method and measurement of operation times
when the process is already in action. This obviously belongs to the control stage,
and information gathered . in this way provides a basis for replanning and
readjusting of production schedules, when these are proved to be unrealistic and for
data required for future synthesis.
Although these two distinct functions of time and motion study are employed at
different stages of production planning and control and for different processes; they
share the same philosophy, the same approach, the same techniques, and even if they can
be divorced in time they are essentially integral parts of the same field.
The importance of materials availability at the various stages of production
necessitates a mechanism of inventory control and stores organisation. Inventories are a
financial burden on the plant and management of stores may be very costly. Inventory
control is sometimes a very complex function as its policies are not dictated by internal
needs and considerations along out by external" factors governing the purchasing of
materials, such as vendor's offers and terms, market availability. Factor may influence
both quantity and delivery dates of materials and components and have to be taken into
account by any inventory control mechanism.
Forecasting
Sale forecasting
A sale forecast is defined as an estimate of the amount of sales for a specified
future period under a proposed marketing plan or programme.
Forecasting plays a crutial role in the development of plans for the future. It is
essential for the organisation to know for what level of activities one is planning before
investments in inputs ie, men, machines & materials are made. In modern production
activity, the activities are more complex technologically and the basic inputs are
becoming expensive and therefore these are lot of restrictions. Thus planning is very
essential for any production activity and is a fundamental activity of management.
Forecasting forms the basis of planning and enables the organisation to respond more
quickly and accurately to market changes.
Prediction
Forecasting
managers
skill
experience
judgment
(3) Influence of ones own perception (3) achieved by systematically combining
and bias. So it is less accurate & low and casting foreward in a pre determined
reliability
3.
4.
To prepare material planning to make materials available at right quantity and right
time.
5.
gives a future trend which is essential for product design and development.
Thus in the changing and uncertain techno-economic and marketing scenario,
forecasting helps to predict the future with accuracy.
Products
Forecasting for
established products
1. Projection method
3. Market research
Established products
Projection Method
Based on historical data, future can be predicted to some extent. A line drawn
though the known information is projects into a forecast area to predict. Projection of
future can be done either by time series analysis or correlation, regression analysis
technique
Projection methods
correlation analysis
1. Graphic methods
a) Simple graphs
short term
long term
b) Scatter diagrams
2. Mathematica methods
1. Method of inspection
2. Method of average
a) Pearsonian method
Regular variation
Irregular variation
c) Ranking method
squares method
e) Difference method
Examples:- Actual birth rate might be used to predict the sales of baby foods.
Market Research
Through critical analysis of marketing forces, changing patterns of socio-economic
pressures, political changes etc, we can predict the future demands of the products.
Jury of Executive Opinion Method
Opinions of experts are invited about the future sales. It is simple and fast. No
scientific.
Different persons may draw different trend lines from same data
(2)
(3)
Being a subjective method it requires the exercise of a high level of judgment and
statistics.
P1
Straw products Ltd, is a pvt. company with a paid up capital of Rs.41,400 lakhs. It
is engaged in the production f straw boards, paper boards, writing papers etc. The
balance sheet reveals the following sales pattern during 1995 to 1999. It is desired
by the chairman to flash the sales forecast for the year 2000.
Year
1995
890.50
1996
941.87
1997
1260.60
1998
2354.19
1999
2355.84
(2)
Method of averages
(a)
(b)
then plotted on the graph. A straight line then be drawn to pass through the plotted
points. This line is the semi average trend line. When the number of years are
added, the middle year is not considered while dividing the data into two equal
parts and obtaining an average.
Advantages:
Limitations:
P2.
(1)
(2)
(1)
(2)
The sales turnover of fertilizer corporation of India ltd. for the period 1991-92 to
97-98 is given below, compute the estimated sales for the year 1998-99. Also plot
the actual sales values on the graph to have a comparison.
Year
1991-92
39.2
1992-93
48.8
1993-94
65.8
1994-95
78.0
1995-96
95.0
1996-97
91.7
1997-98
112.5
Advantages:
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
This gives a very good picture of the general long term movement in data, if the
data contains uniform cycles and if the trend is the data, if any is linear or
approximately.
Disadvantages:
(1)
(2)
It does not result in a mathematical equation which may be used for forecasting.
(3)
The selection of the period of moving average requires a great deal of care for, if a
wrong period is selected a corrected picture of a trend cannot be obtained.
3.
The sales pattern of N. Abdulah & Sons, a firm manufacturing different types of
castings used in industrial motors, traction motors etc is as follows compute the 3
yearly moving trend and find out the sales forecast for 2001.
Year
1994
6.00
1995
7.00
1996
8.00
1997
7.50
1998
6.50
1999
7.00
2000
9.00
Year
1994
6.00
1995
7.00
21.00
7.00
1996
8.00
22.50
7.50
1997
7.50
22.00
7.33
1998
6.50
21.00
7.00
1999
7.00
22.50
7.50
2000
9.00
4.
The balance sheets of R.N. brothers dealer in M.S. scrap revealed the following
sales pattern. Compute the 4 yearly moving average trend to the firm.
Year
Year
1984
200
1991
220
1985
190
1992
208
1986
210
1993
224
1987
180
1994
200
1988
188
1995
240
1989
204
1996
184
1993
216
Year
Moving Avg.
1984
200
1985
190
780
1986
210
768
1548
193.50
1987
180
782
1550
193.75
1988
188
788
1570
196.25
1989
204
828
1616
202.00
1990
216
848
1676
209.50
1991
220
868
1716
214.50
1992
208
852
1720
215.00
1993
224
872
1724
215.50
Total of 4 years
1994
200
1995
240
1996
184
(3)
848
1720
215.00
a series of plotted points is such a way that the sum of the squares of the deviations of
the actual points above and below the trend line is at the minimum. This method gives us
what is known as line of best fit. If we sum up the positive and negative deviation on
either side of the line of best fit the sum is zero.
Advantages:1)
2)
3)
Disadvantages:
It lacks flexibility of trend fitting. If one more year is added the entire calculations
have to be done again.
A straight line will be of the general form Y = bx + a
where y is the dependent variable, such as in rupees, sales in volume etc, a and b
are two unknown constants whose values are determined by solving two normal
equations and x is the unit of time.
To determine the values of a and b the following two normal equations have to be
solved.
y = Na + b x
xy = a x + b x2
where N is the total number of observations
But where deviations are taken from the middle year, x will be equal to zero and
the values of a and b can be determined as under.
a = y/N; b = xy/ x2
5.
Exports of Indian Rare earth. Ltd., during 1993-94 to 1997-98 is given below. (a)
Compute the exports during 2002-03
(b)
If the analysis of business conditions and pertinent economic factors indicate that
exports in 2002-03 will be about 15% below trend or normal, then what will be
export forecast in 2002-03.
Year
1993-94
1.49
1994-95
1.24
1995-96
1.69
1996-97
1.69
1997-98
3.11
(a)
Exports in
Deviation from
Rs. crores
middle year
xy
x2
1993-94
1.49
2.98
1.106
199495
1.24
1.24
1.476
199596
1.69
1.846
199697
1.70
+1
1.70
2.216
199798
3.11
+2
6.22
2.586
N=5
y = 9.23
x=0
xy=3.7
x2=10
Year
y = a + bx
y = 1.846 + 0.370 x
The sales for the domestic water pumps manufactured by Ajit Mfg. company is
given. Forecast the demand for the pumps for the next three years using least
square method.
Year
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Sales
30
33
37
39
42
46
48
50
55
58
(x103)
(Trend: Y = 43.8 + 3.04x
for 1998 = 66,600
1997 = 63,560
1996 = 60,520
(4)
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Sales
106
118
111
123
129
x2
log y
x log y
Year
Sales
(Rs.lakhs)
Deviation
from
middle
year
x
1995
106
2.0253
4.0506
1996
118
2.0719
2.0719
1997
111
2.0453
1998
123
+1
2.0899
2.0899
1999
129
+2
2.1105
4.2210
x= 0
N=5
x2=10
log y =
10.3429
xlogy =
0.1884
Parabolic Trend Sometimes a straight line fails to fit in the data. A second degree
curve describes them. The equation of such a curve is
Y = a + bx + cx2
The normal equations of this second degree parabola are: Y = Na + b x + c x2
(1)
xy = a x+b x2 + c x3
(2)
x2y = a x2 + b x3 + c x4
8.
(3)
R. Bham & Co. is engaged is the manufacturing of compressor, pumps etc given
below are the sales of the company during 1993 to 1999. Compute the expected
sales during 2000.
Year
1993
1944
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
10
15
39
25
20
15
Sales
(Rs.lakhs)
Year
Sales
(Rs.)
Deviation
Long term
trend of
(y)
(x)
xy
x2
x3
1993
18
27
81
54
1994
10
20
16
40
1995
15
15
1996
39
1997
25
25
25
1998
20
40
16
80
1999
15
45
27
81
135
x=0
xy=
57
x2 =
28
x =0
x4=19
6
x2
y=34
9
y=
130
Normal equations :
(1)
(2)
(3)
x4
x2y
sales
Solving, b = 2.0357
a = 26.714 and c = 2.0357
Equating the parabola, y = 26.714 + 2.0357x 2.0357x2
Forecast for 2000 y = 26.714 + 2.0357 (4) 2.0357 (4)2 = 2.286lakhs
Experimental smoothing:
Suppose that a new observation has just been made, and that we already have an
old forecast, based on any method we like. There will almost certainly be a difference
between the forecast and the actual observation. Therefore let us construct one forecast
of the next observation from are old one by allowing for the error we have just made.
This method can then be written as:
Newfprecast = old forecast +
smoothing constant and is a fraction between 0 and 1. It has been found appropriate to
have between 0.1 and 0.5 in many systems.
Correlation Analysis
Is an additional technique which may be employed to sales forecast. Since all
forecast methods are subject to error, a firm is wise to employ more than one method. A
forecast based on time series analysis trends to be substantiated if a similar forecast is
obtained by correlation analysis.
A statistical tool used for expressing the relationships between two or more
variables in one single figure is known as correlation. Correlation is simply an averaging
process by which an average relationship between two or more variatles is established.
Types of Correlation
Analysis of the relationship between two sets of data is referred as simple
correlation. Multiple correlation analysis is designed to measure the influence of several
series of data upon a particular series such as sales. For example, sales of point might be
forecast for specific states or regions by analysis of (1) number of residential structures
with paintable surfaces (2) number of owner occupied residences. (3) median value of
owner occupied residences. Partial correlation analysis is a technique by which the
influence of one series upon another is measured while other held constant.
Pattern of Correlation: If the amount of change in one series tends to bear a
constant ratio to the amount of change in the other series then the correlation is said to
be linear. The relationship is manlinear or curvilinear if the amount of change in one
series does not remain in constant ratio to the amount of change in other series.
Degree of Correlation: When changes in two related variables are exactly
proportional, correlation is perfect. If they are not proportional the degree of correlation
is limited. Thus we may have four degrees of relationships.
(a)
Perfect positive
(b)
Perfect negative
(c)
Limited positive
(d)
Limited negative
Measurement of correlation:
Correlation can be known by:
(i) Graphical methods (a) Simple graph
(ii) Mathematical methods
deviation method
b) Scatter diagrams
Is the simplest method of studying relationship between two series of data.
Under this method, x variable is measured on the horizontal axis and y variable on the
vertical axis and for each pair of x and y, points are plotted. If the points so plotted show
some trend either upward or downward, the two variables are correlated. On the other
hand if the plotted points do not show any trend, there is no correlation between the
variables.
The greatest limitation of the method is that it fails to give any idea about the
degree of corelation.
(d)
Regression Analysis
After having established the fact of correlation between two variables, it will be
ones curiosity to know the extent to which one variable varies in response to a given
variation in other variable. Thus the primary use of the regression equation
is to
describe the nature of the relationship between the two variable and to show the rates of
change in one factor in terms of another.
If we are given x and y values we can fit a regression equation of the type y = a 9
bx regression equation of y on x. Here y is the dependent variable, a and b are two
unknown constants and x is the independent variable. In order to find out the values of a
and b we have to solve two normal equations.
y = Na + b x
(1)
XY = Na x + b x2
Month
Nail driver
4
(2)
Constructive
8
x2
y2
xy
sales (10 )
volume 10
11
10.00
2.50
100.00
6.25
25.00
12
11.00
3.00
121.00
9.00
33.00
13
9.00
2.50
81.00
6.25
22.50
14
9.00
2.00
81.00
4.00
18.00
15
12.50
3.50
156.25
12.25
43.75
16
11.50
3.00
132.25
9.00
34.50
17
11.50
3.00
132.25
9.00
34.50
18
10.50
3.00
110.25
9.00
32.50
19
11.00
3.00
121.00
9.00
33.00
20
9.00
2.00
81.00
4.00
44.00
y=207
x=54.50
y2=2169.5
0
x2=152.75
xy=598.7
5
To find the most likely sales estimate when construction volume is Rs.300000000, we
can have two normal equations.
y = Na + b x
xy = a x + b x2
Substituting the values,
207 104 = 20a + 54.5 108 b
598.75 1012 = 54.5108a + 152.75108 b
207 104 54.5 108 = 20 54.5 108a + 54.5 108 54.5 108 b
598.75 1012 20 = 20 54.5 108 a + 152.75108 20 b
Solving a = 109.86 103
b = 23.35 106
when y = 300000000, y = Rs. 102857.8
Another method of obtaining regression equation is as follows:
Regression equation of x and y will take the following form:
where = Arithmetic mean of x and y series
r = coefficient of correlation
x, y = standard deviation of x and y series.
The quantity is called regression coefficient of y on x.
9.
drivers. The management of the firm think that the sales of nail drivers logically be
related to the amount spent on construction. If a relationship does not exist,
published government and construction industry forecasts of anticipated building
levels can be used as an additional sales predictor. First a check is made to confirm
that the building levels forecasts are relatively accurate. Next the national figures
are broken down to conform to the firms marketing areas. Then the records of
monthly building volume and nail driver sales for corresponding months are
collected and tabulated the construction volume is in Rs. 100 million units and
product sales in 10,000 units. Find out:
(a)
construction volume?
(b)
Month
Nail
driver
sales
104
Construc
tion
volume
108
y2
x2
xy
7.5
2.00
56.25
4.00
15.00
10.00
2.50
100.00
6.25
25.00
9.00
2.00
81.00
4.00
18.00
10.50
3.00
110.25
9.00
31.50
11.50
3.50
132.25
12.25
40.25
11.00
3.00
121.00
9.00
33.00
10.50
3.00
110.25
9.00
31.50
10.00
2.50
100.00
6.25
25.00
11.50
3.00
132.25
9.00
34.50
10
10.50
2.50
110.25
6.25
26.25
The method selected should be stable in the sense that the changes should
be minimum.
The Internal reports system, the marketing intelligence system, the marketing research
system and the analytical marketing system.
The internal reports system gives access to current data on sales, costs, inventories, cash
flows and accounts receivable and payable. Internal reports systems based on computers
may provide speedier and more comprehensive information.
The marketing intelligence system supplies marketing executives with every day
information about developments in the external marketing environment.
Marketing research involves collecting information that is relevant to a specific problem
facing the business.
The analytical marketing system consists of advanced statistical procedures and
models to develop more rigorous findings from information collected by the above three
systems.
The various steps involved in designing and developing MIS are:
(1)
(2)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
Questions
(1)
marketing research.
(2)
(3)
(6)
research data.
(7)
(8)
What is market survey? What are the steps involved in carrying out
market survey?
(9)
(10)
Describe briefly:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
Questionnaire development.
11.
Describe in brief
(i)
Panel research
(ii)
12.
What is sampling? (in connection with market survey). What are the
brief.
15. State the various steps involved in designing and developing MIS.
Sales Forecasting
34.1. INTRODUCTION
Business action taken today must be based on yesterdays plan and tomorrows
expectation. The plans for future cannot be made without forecasting events and their
relationships. Every firm is keen to know the expected demand for its products, how
much of a given product it could sell in a given time, whether the sales would increase or
decrease from the current levels and by how much and what would be the share of the
market it can secure during the specified period. This knowledge is required by the firm
for its survival and growth. Without this knowledge it cannot plan any of its production
and other activities. It forms the basis for the requirements of raw material, equipment,
labour, capital etc. All the these decisions are basically related to the size of production
which in turn can be determined from potential demand for the product. Thus the
starting point of all decisions related to production strategy is the sales forecast for a
specified period.
34.2 Definition
In literary sense forecasting means prediction. Forecasting may be defined as a
technique of translating past experience into prediction of things to come. It tries to
evaluate the magnitude and significance of forces that will affect future operating
conditions in an enterprise.
Sales forecast is the task of projecting the future sales of the firm. It indicates how much
of a product is likely to be sold during a specified period in a specified market, at
specified prices.
Sales forecast is an estimate based on some past information, the prevailing situation and
prospects of future. It is based on an effective system and is valid only for some specific
period. Due to dynamic nature of market phenomenon sales forecasting has become a
continuous process and requires regular monitoring of situation.
Sales forecasting has been defined by the American Marketing Association as, Sales
forecast is an estimate of sales in dollars or physical units for a specified future period
under a proposed marketing plan or programme and under an assured set of economic
and other forces outside the unit for which the forecast is made.
In the words of Philip Kolter, The company sales forecast is the expected of company
sales based on chosen marketing plan and assumed marketing environment.
34.3 Types of Forecasting
There are two types of forecasting:
1)
Short-term forecasting
2)
1.
Short-term forecasting
The forecasting which covers a period of three months, six months or one year is
generally called as short term forecasting. The period for which forecasting is done
depends upon the nature of business. Forecasting is done only for a short period when
the demand fluctuates from one month to another.
2.
(a)
is also to arrange for trained personnel and non-technical workers so that they
might not experience any shortage of personnel and at the same time they dont
remain idle when the production is curtailed.
(v)
formulate some appropriate pricing mechanism. So that the level of prices does not
fluctuate too much in the periods of depression or inflation.
(vi)
Setting the sales target: Sales forecasts are calculated for different market
segments and then the sales targets for various territories are fixed accordingly.
This later on becomes the basis to evaluate and control sales performance.
(b)
(i)
plan capacity in accordance with the demand. The size of the plant can be
determined such that the output conforms with sales requirements. Too small or
too large size of the plant may not be in the economic interest of the enterprise. By
studying the demand pattern for the product and the forecasts for future the
enterprise can plan for a plant with output of desired capacity.
(ii)
Estimating Cash Inflows: Cash inflows from sales can well be estimated
through sales forecasting by determining the cash and credit sale ratio. It can also
help to plan for credit policy of the firm.
(iv)
basis of gross profit ratio on sale and divided policy can be determined.
(v)
depends upon sales forecasting. In the long run product has to be adjusted to the
market demand and other conditions.
(vi)
activities are to be forecast and for this purpose budget is to be prepared for the
income and expenditure of the orgnaisation. The budgeting figures for income and
expenditure may then be compared with the actual performance and any variation
is removed. Thus budgetary control over expenditure becomes possible.
The firm can carry out its marketing planning and strategy formulation and
develop its marketing objectives in a specific manner.
The sales forecast is vital for determining sales targets and for decisions on
physical distribution, transportation, promotion, sales force and pricing. In short the
entire marketing mix, i.e. product, price, promotion and distribution revolves around the
sales forecast.
Determining the objective of forecast: Certain points in this respect should be very
clear before taking up the forecasting test such as period of forecasting (short term,
long term): area of sales forecasting. unit of sales forecasting (i.e in quantities or
values) the time, labour and money to be employed on forecasting. All these points
are determined taking into account the objectives of sales forecasting.
2.
3.
Determine the relative importance of factors: So that due weight age may be given
to different factors affecting forecast.
4.
Select the method to be used for forecasting: The method is to be selected by the
appropriate authority taking into account all the relevant situations, purpose of
forecasting and the degree of accuracy required.
5.
Collect and analyse the data: By applying method, the necessary data for forecast
are collected, tabulated and cross-checked. The data, are interpreted by using
statistical techniques. It may be called as the preliminary sales forecast which
forms the basis for final sales forecast.
6.
Study the correlation between sales forecast and sales promoting plans: Marketing
the forecast reliable, the sales promotion plans such as advertising policy, personal
selling and other policies should be reviewed with reference to the preliminary
sales forecast.
7.
8.
Prepare final sales forecasts: The preliminary sales forecast results are converted
into final sales forecast relating to the products and territories involved. The
aggregate of sales forecasts of different products, or territories or customers or
activities may form the sales forecasts of the enterprise.
9.
Evaluation and adjustments: The actual sales performance in the coming period
should be reviewed and evaluated from time to time. The evaluation may be made
monthly , quarterly, half yearly or yearly. The forecast figures may be revised in
the light of difficulties experienced during the course of actual operations. On the
expiry of forecasts period the actual sales and forecast sales and forecast sales
should be compared and causes of variation found out which may help to improve
the next period sales forecasts.
(ii)
Provides a Basis for Effective Control. Forecasting provides a basis for effective
control by providing information where higher degree of control is to be exercised.
The managers car predict the weaknesses of their departments through forecasting.
(vi) Important at the national level. Economic forecasts of various factors at the
national level help in planning for economic development.
Limitations of Forecasting:
Forecasts are only estimates of future condition. They can never be actual
position. They can only give a best estimate of future courses of events, but they can
never be hundred percent accurate and reliable. The following are some of the
limitations of sales forecast:
(i)
(ii)
Forecasting is usually based on past data but future may not be a copy of the past.
(iii) Changes in consumers need, taste fashion, style etc. may causes inaccuracy in
forecast.
(iv) There may be lack of history in case of a new product.
(v)
Forecasts are not full proof and condition proof and if there are changes in the
general economy of the country; they may not materialise.
(vi) Development of new products, mateirals methods may introduce error in the sales
forecast of a particular product.
(vii) There may be lack of efficient and experienced sales force.
(viii)Lack of sales history in case of a new product makes the forecast difficult.
(ix) Short term forecasting is more accurate than long term forecasting and hence its
usefulness is limited to short-term purposes.
(ii)
Political Stability
General Business Conditions. While making sales forecast the marketer should
take into consideration the general conditions of the economy, growth of
population, distribution of wealth and income, general cons toms, fashion and
seasonal fluctuations etc., during the future period.
(ii)
Conditions within the Industry. While making sales forecast the changes going
on all the time in the total demand of the product, technological developments
should be taken into consideration. The number of other units engaged in the
industry and their sales, research, potentials and product development, etc., have to
be carefully considered.
(iii) Conditions within the Company. Internal changes within the company in the
coming future also affect future sales. Such changes may be in price structure,
distribution channel, sales promotion measures, product or other marketing
policies of the company, future expansion plans, plans for product development
etc. It is therefore essential to anticipate the extent to which such measures may
affect the future sales. There are the internal factors which are well within the
control of the company.
(iv) Factors Affecting Export Trade. If the company is engaged in the export trade,
the marketing manager must also consider the various factors in forecasting the
export sales. Such factors include export and import controls impressed by the
government, export conditions, export import policy, export finance, new
agreements etc.
(v)
(vi) Government Restrictions. Today Govts. all over the world are interfering more
and more in business activities through various restrictions and control. If these are
announced on a long term basis forecasting becomes easy and if they are for a
short period forecasting is rendered difficult.
(vii) Fiscal and Monetary Policy. The frequency of changes in the fiscal and monetary
policy do affect the forecasting. From forecasting point of view a flexible but less
frequency changing fiscal and monetary policy is regarded as good.
(viii) Price Level and Trend. Frequent and wild changes in price levels do adversely
affect the forecasting. On the contrary stable price trends helps in achieving the
objectives of forecasting.
(ix) Technological research and development.
Market potential is the total possible sales by all the firms selling the product in a
given market. It gives an indication of the ultimate potential for that product and
industry as a whole, assuming that the ideal marketing effort is made.
Company potential refers a part of the market potential, which an individual firm
can achieve at the maximum in a given market, under ideal conditions and on the
assumption that the ideal marketing effort is made.
The term Market demand and company demand refers to those portions of market,
market potential and company potential that are achievable under existing conditions.
Market forecast and company forecast refer to what the industry and the firm
respectively will sell in actual practice during the period of the forecast.
Thus company potential is a part of market potential, company demand is a part of
market demand and company forecast is just a part of market forecast.
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
performance.
Before starting the production, it is necessary to decide in advance what to
produce, how much to produce, where to produce and where to sell. Therefore
production planning is the pre-determination of future achievements in type of product,
volume of production, quality, time, price in manufacture and the resources required. It
analyses all the problems likely to arise in manufacture and decides in advance how
these difficulties can be overcome.
Control
Control means the supervision of all the relevant operations with the help of
control mechanism that feeds back the progress of the work. Controlling is made by
comparing the actual performance with the present standards (plan) and deviations are
analysed. The control mechanism is also responsible for subsequently adjusting,
modifying, and redefining plans and targets, in order to ensure attainment of prespecified
production foals, in the most efficient and effective manner.
Prior Planning:
Prior planning implies that a course of action is established in advance. The
whole activity must be planned and exists on paper before the ver:' first action takes
place.
(1) Fore-casting (Estimation of future work) : Fore-casting is defined as the estimation
of future activities i.e. the estimation of type, quantity and quality of future work.
These estimates provide the basis for establishing the future requirement for men,
materials, machines. time and money.
(2) Order writing (Preparation of work authorisation): If the work is to be controlled. it
must begin with a specified documents authorising it. So it means giving the
authority to one or more persons to do a particular job.
(3) Product design (preparation of specifications) : After the work authorisation has
been prepared the next step is to collect the information necessary to describe the
work in details. This includes blue prints or drawings, a list of specification, a bill of
material and so on.
Action Planning:
In any type of work activity the following steps are necessary for planning details
of the work to be done:
(1) Process planning:
The determination of most economical method of performing an activity, all factors
being considered.
Routing. The arrangement of work stations is determined by the route.
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(2) Data interpretation. After the data has been collected. then it is nece. Ito interpret
it by comparing the actual performance against the plan.
Corrective Action:
(1) Expediting. If the data collected from the production unit indicates that there is
significant deviation from the plan and the plan cannot be changed. then some
action must be taken to get back on plan.
(2) Replanning. It should be emphasised that the plan is not to be changed but to be
followed. however, if after expediting to correct deviation it is found that, it is
impossible to perform according to plan. It would be necessary to replan the
whole affair. It may also be found that there were errors made while developing
the original plan. In all such cases replanning is necessary.
Phase
Formal Technology
(1) Fore-casting
of
65
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of new tools
(b) Control storage and
maintenance of tools after
procurement
(7) Determination of the requirements
and control of equipment and
manpower
(a)
Progress (11) Data Interpretation
reporting
(b)
action
(9)
Dispatching
(work
assignment to various shops)
MODULE-2
28.6. ROUTING
Routing may be defil1ed as the selection of the path which each part of the
product will follow, while being transferred from raw material to finished products.
Path of the product will also give sequence of operations to be adopted while
manufacturing.
In other words, routing means determination of most advantageous path to be
followed from department to department and machine, till the raw material gets its
final shape. Routing is related to considerations of layout, temporary storage of in
process inventory and material handling.
According to Alford and Beatty routing is defined as, "the specification of the
flow or sequence of operations and the processes to be followed in producing a
particular manufacturing lot".
Routing is an important function of the production planning and control
66
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because, it has a direct bearing on the "time" as well as "cost" of the operations.
Defective routing may involve back tracking and long routes. This will unnecessarily
prolong the processing time. Moreover, it will increase the cost of material handling.
The prolonged processing time will increase cycle time and will slow down the rate
of production involving the increase of overheads on the production. Routing is
affected by the plant layout. In fact, routing and plant layout are closely related. In
the product layout the routing is short and simple while, under the process layout it
tends to be long complex.
Routing Procedure
(1) Analyse the product. The finished product is analysed and borken into number of
components required for the product.
(2) Make and Buy decision. It mean te> . ~cide whether all components are to be
manufactured in the plant or some are to be purchased from outside. Make or buy
decision depends upon the work load in the plant already existing, availability of
equipment, labour and economy considerations.
(3) Raw material requirements. A part list and bill of materials is prepared showing
name of the part, quantity, material specifications, amount of material required
etc.
(4) Operations through which raw materials are to undergo are listed (in a proper
sequence).
(5) Machines to be used, their capacity is also listed.
(6) Time required for each operation and subassemblies is listed.
(7) The lot size is also recorded.
The data thus obtained is utilized for preparing master route sheets and the
operation charts. The master route sheets give the information regarding the time
when different activities are to be initiated a.nd finished, to obtain the product at the
required time.
The next step is to prepare the route sheets for the individual items or
components.
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Route Sheets
The operation sheet and the route sheet differs only slightly. An operation
sheet shows every thing about the operations, i.e. operation descriptions, their
sequence, type of machinery, tools, jigs and fixtures required, set up and operation
times etc. Whereas the route sheet also details the section (department) and the
particular machine on which the work is to be done. The operation sheet will remain
the same if the order is repeated but the route sheet may have to be revised if certain
machines are already engaged to other orders on hand. Except this small difference
both sheets contain practically the same information and thus generally combined
into one sheet known as operation and route sheet.
Part No. Ac/57
Name: Gear
Material: M.S.
Quantity-100 Nos.
Time
Jigs
Department
Machine
Operation
Description
Tool
/fixtures
Smithy
Power
hammer
1
2
pH/15
Setup
Operation
time
time
4 hrs
30 min
1 hr
25 min
all
Punching
Furnace
Normalising
4 hrs.
4 hrs.
Lathe
Chuck
15
1 hr.
Turnouter teeth
tool
F/H/4
Machine
Centre
shop
Lathe
C/L/5
68
min
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Milling
Cut teeth
Side
Dividing
40
machine
and
head
min
M/MC/15
face
5 hrs
cuatter
Slotter
SL/7
Slotting
10
tool
min
30 min
The route sheet also provides the sequences of various orders as well as the
best/optimum sequence for the desired operations taking into consideration the
resources available. This can be done by sequencing assignment, CPM and PERT
methods.
The following points must be remembered in mind for drawing route sheets:
(I) The machines are to be operated at full capacity.
(ii) The product passes through those work centres which are manned by best
possible personnel.
(iii) The route is shortest and economical.
(iv) The person solving routing problem should be well-acquainted with various
operations.
69
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layout. ln job order production, since every time the Job IS new, the operations differ
from job to job according to varying specifications of individual orders. Thus the
number of operations and sequence of operations vary considerably. The route sheet
is made for Implementation of each order and this involves a greater amount of work
experience. The product passes through a larger shop floor involving back tracking.
The routing is also subjected to the bottlenecks, waiting and rushing according to the
backlog of work and the machine loads available for them. Thus, In job order
production the routing function is rather difficult and complex.
In intermittent production also, generally the machines are arranged in
process layout. The operations and their sequence differ from batch to batch. The
route sheet will have to be revised whenever the production of the batch changes.
Thus routing is relatively simpler as compared to that in job order 'production but
difficult and complex as compared to continuous production.
Advantages of Routing:
(i) Ei ficlentuse of available resources.
(ii) Reduction in manufacturing costs:
(iii) Improvement in quantity and quality of the output.
(iv) Provides a basis for scheduling and loading.
28.7. SCHEDULING
Scheduling may be defined as the assignment of work to the facility with the
specification of times, and the sequence in which the work is to be done. Scheduling
is actually time phasing of loading. The facility may be man power, machine or both.
Scheduling deals with orders and machines, it determines which order WIll be taken
up on which machine in which department, at what time and by which operator.
Scheduling may also be defined as the fitting of specific jobs into a general
time-table so that orders may be manufactured In accordance with the contractual
liability. or, in mass production, so that each component may arise at and enter into
assembly in the order and at the time required.
According to Sprigel and Lansburg, "scheduling involves establishing the
amount of work to be done and the time when each element of the work will start:'
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2. Time interval to process finished goods from raw material. In other words, how
much time will be required to manufacture each component, subassembly and
then assembly (i.e. the final product).
3. Availability of machines. The machines and equipments have varying production
capacities. Moreover, their occupancy scheduIJng can be made with the help of
"machine-load charts".
4. Availability of manpower. The scheduling should be made in the light of the
availability of the manpower. The rushing of production should be adjusted to
overtime working, extra shift working or hiring of the temporary labour. The slacks
should be adjusted through transfers if possible. Due consideration should be given
to the factors like induction and training to new employees. As far as possible the
layoffs should be minimized.
5. Availability of materials. Sometimes the production flow is interrupted by the
stock outs. In continuous production, proper stock levels should be maintained to
facilitate scheduling. In case of probable stock outs of strategic items, extra efforts
should be made to procure them as far as possible and the limited stock in hand
should be issued only to critical operations. The scheduling should be adjusted in
the light of such situation. In intermIttent production, the materials should be
acquired according to "the bill of materials" enlisting the need of specific order.
Such process will smoothen the scheduling task.
6. Manufacturing facilities. The manufacturing facilities in terms of power
requirements, material handling services, storekeeping, work-bench area and such
other facilities should be provided in adequate quantities so that it may not affect
the smooth flow of the production adversely. Such situation will facilitate the
scheduling function.
7. Feasibility of economic production runs. Undcr the economic lot production,
generally two costs are compared set up cost and the carrying cost. At economic lot
production these two costs are equated.
Master Scheduling :
Let us consider a computer centre, from the past experience it is known that
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the maximum number of hours that the equipment can be operated in a five days
week is 100 hrs. The remaining time must be available for routine maintenance and
repair work. Assume that the minimum number of hours will be eight hrs per day to
run it economically. For a control purpose it is necessary to plan the working of the
computer centre. As each job arrives at the centre the person maintaining the master
schedule estimates the number of hours the job will require. The number of hours in
the weekly coloumn of the master schedule indicates the number of hours for the
various jobs already assigned to the computer centre.
Assume that a new job arrives at the centre which requires completion during
the second week. If the number of hours required by the job does not exceed 27 hrs.,
it can be assigned directly to second week's work schedule. If the number of hours
required is less than 40 and more than 27 hrs. it can be assigned to both the first and
second weeks' work schedule and still it can be completed before the due time.
Master schedule for the computer centre
Maximum production-100 hrs. per week
Minimum production 8 hrs. per day
or (40 hrs per week in a 5 days week)
Weekly
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
35
18
10
12
15
25
12
25
30
15
12
5
balance 27 hrs.
balance 13 hrs.
Production Scheduling
Production scheduling involves setting the time of performance for the
detailed operations of manufacture i.e., establishing the order of work at each
machine or stage of process in fabrication of parts and in the assembly of products.
The objectives of production schedules are:
(I) To meet the output goals of the master schedule and to fulfill delivery promises.
(2) To keep constant supply of work ahead of each machine; and
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(3) To put out manufacturing orders in the shortest possible time consistent with
economical operation. The schedules must, however, afford sufficient flexibility
to accommodate the normal irregularities and interruptions that occur in
manufacturing.
Data required for production scheduling. In order to achieve the objectives, a
production schedule must be formulated on the basis of accurate information. Blue
prints and bill of materials, master schedules, route sheets, inventory records, and
machine-load charts provides this basis.
1. The blue prints and bill of materials show the kind of items required and the
detailed work to be carried out.
2. Master schedule indicates the priority and the quantity of finished products to be
completed within a given period and the amount of raw material required.
3. Route sheet stipulates the operations and machines to be scheduled and the
processing times.
4. Inventory records show the availability of materials and tools and the time
required for the procurement of items not in stock.
5. Machine-load charts show the quantity of work already scheduled to various
machineslequipments and the amount of spare capacity available for use.
Preparation of production schedules. On the basis of available machine
capacities, materials, and labour the master schedule. the individual production
schedule is prepared. The dates for the beginning and completion of the work on
various processes and operations are recorded on production schedules. These dates
are then entered on route sheets and load charts to show machine allocation times.
The planners. therefore, prepare the detailed production schedule from the master
schedule as given below:
PRODUCTION (PARTS) SCHEDULE
Model : S 15
Part No.
For Assembly
S 210 R
S-220 F
S-230 F
1
2
4
5
500
1000
2000
12
500
1000
2000
75
Month : April
Quantity Required on Dates indicated
19
26
500
500
1000
1000
2000
2000
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S-240 F
S-250 T
S-260 T
2
1
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(i) to plan new work orders on the basis of spare capacity available.
(ii) to balance the work load in a plant.
(iii) to maintain the delivery promises.
(iv) to check the feasibility of production programmes.
(v) they are also used during plant layout for balancing capacity and achieving a
uniform flow of work i.e. for eliminating bottlenecks or excess capacity at
specific machines and work places.
MACHINE LOADING
Machine radial drill No.9
40
ORDER
NO.
LOT SIZE
NO.
HOURS
REQUIRED
BALANCE
OF LOAD
6993
D 4108
22
600
32
6994
D 4507
34
600
12
20
7005*
S 470
28 (* 6 hours
carried to the
next week
1200
26
7005
S 470
28
1200
32
7008
T 847
16
600
10
22
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b) Data interpretation
2. Corrective action.
1. Progress Reporting
This part of the follow-up phase is primarily a matter of communications.
One of the principles of sound production control system is that it must furnish
timely, adequate and accurate information about the actual progress of the work,
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plan. The system must be designed to report progress in a simplified manner. The
important point to remember in the design of progress reports is that they must
almost automatically evaluate the situation for management. Management should not
be required to interpret the raw data in order to come up with the evaluation.
2. Corrective Action
After expediting it may be found that there is a significant deviation between
the planned work and the actual progress of the work. Since the plan is not be
changed but to be followed, some action must be taken to get back on plan. The
deviation caused may be due to production delays. The follow up man learns of the
delays through investigation and analysis of the production reports and also through
the personnel observations. He must not only take corrective action after the delay
occurred but also anticipate and prevent It before It actually develops.
(1) Lack of materials, tools etc. Shortage of materials, tools may arise because of:
(a) delivery failure.
(b) poor inventary control.
(c) inaccurate estimate of future requirements of materials, tools etc.
This can be prevented by closer follow up by the purchasing department after
the order for the material is placed and by proper inventory control.
(2) Equipment Breakdown. Equipment breakdown also causes delays in production.
Equipment breakdown can be m1lllmised by preventive maintenance. Sometimes
it may be advisable to provide a stand by equipment, to prevent such production
delays.
(3) Excessive rejections. Material scrapped at any point in the process in excess of
the scrap factor allowed subsequently causes a shortage in the finished item .
(4) Accumulation or in process inventories. This may be caused because of (i)
improper or inefficient material handling system, or (ii) capacity imbalance.
(5) Errors in planning. These are essentially errors of production management
whereby equipment is' scheduled with work beyond its capacity to produce and
the set ups are excessive. The follow up man by his close association with plant
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conditions is often able to discover such errors and have them rectified before
serious trouble IS caused.
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2. Be Flexible.
When reference is made to the flexibility of a system, it refers not only to the
systems ability to adjust for variations in work loads. but also flexibility in terms of
modifying the system itself to accommodate changes in the operation of the
conditions that exist in the activity. Activities are dynamic; i.e. they are III a constant
state of flux. This is particularly true under conditions of rapid growth. Just because a
system that has been designed is adequate for conditions as they exist today does not
necessarily mean that it will be adequate for conditions that will exist in the near
future. Because of this it is necessary for the designer to keep in mind at all times
that a system must be adjusted to changing conditions within the organisation. This
may be done without completed disruption of the work that has been done in the past
4. Be economical.
Economy of course, is the basic reason for having a production control
system. In all cases. we must get back more than a rupee for every rupee that is spent
in planning and control. This is also one of the most difficult steps to evaluate.
Many of the benefits accrued by production control are intangible, and cannot
be given in dinars. Only by comparing the cost of operation when no formal system
of production control was used against the cost when a production control system is
used could the economy be measured accurately.
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But, II the order is repeated. tooling and jigs as well as specially designed inspection
gauges should be carefully considered because the effect on production time may be
considerable:
In this type of production, the products are made when orders are received
from customers. One order may be all together different from the other. Therefore.
prior planning becomes complex. Skilled labour is necessary to handle variety of
jobs. General purpose equipment is used since it can handle variety of jobs.
The output of the shop in job production is mainly governed by plant capacity
and as soon as the load presented by incoming customer orders exceeds this out put a
queue of orders is formed. When immediate increase in plant capacity is impractiable
the length of the queue is a major factor governing the sales policy of such plant, and
a certain amount of discrimination in order selection may be essential. .
Scheduling is dependent on assessment of production times, and estimating
(although it can be greatly improved by experience and skill of estimators) is based
on judgement and is too often reduced to a rule-of-thumb affair. Scheduling must
therefore be constantly amended to take account of reality. Repeated orders for the
same items usually do not require repeated planning. Production control is also
simplified in the case of repeated orders, especially at regular intervals. The master
schedule can also be constructed in which production time is balanced against plant
capacity, but such a state of affairs is rather rare. Usually the majority of orders are
executed only once. and a small percentage of them may be repeated regularly or
intermittently.
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In flow production, the plant, its equipments, and layout are primarily
designed to manufacture the product in question. Flexibility in selection of products
for manufacture is confined to minor modification m layout or design of models.
Notable examples are automobiles, engines, household machinery, chemical plants
etc. A decision to switch over to a different kind of product may not only result in
extensive tooling (this is often needed even when only the model is changed) but also
in basic changes in layout and equipment policy especially when special purpose
machines and complex material handling systems are involved.
Production planning and control in continuous production is usually far
simpler than in job or batch production. Extensive effort is required for detailed
planning before production starts, hut both scheduling and control need not usually
be very elaborate.
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1
Examples
2
Prototype models machine
tool manufacturing special
projects, large
turbogenerator, boilers, ship
building materials, handling
system, special electronic
equipments etc.
(3) Equipment
used
(4) Type of
plant layout
Batch production or
similar process
3
Shoe making, cloth
manufacturing,
forging, casting
processes, and
chemical plants etc.
Continuous production
4
Automobile industry,
electrical appliances,
household appliances,
sugar mills, toy
manufacturing,
company, Glass
manufacturing
Standard (similar)
Wide range of
products are
manufactured in
small quantities in
lots. The product
design changes from
lot according to
product
specifications
Standard (indentical)
Few standard products
are manufactured in
large quantities. The
product design is to be
done only once.
General purpose
General purpose
Special purpose
Process layout or
combination
Skilled since there is
frequent changes in
product design and
machine set up for
each lot.
Product layout
Semi-skilled or
unskilled. Since the
manufacturing activities
become a routine
function
(5) Skill of
worker
(6) Supervising
difficulties
Much
Less
Mobile
Less mobile,
conveyors can also
be used
High
Relatively low
High
Less
Quite less
Complex
Easy
Very easy
Complex
Long
Easier, Flexibility if one
machine is under repair
another machine can be used
Complex and in details as
the job changes every time
Easy
Relatively short
Very easy
Very short
Very difficult because
of perfect balancing of
the production line
Only at the out set of
new job. Once the
instructions are given it
(7) Material
handling
equipment
(8) In process
inventories
(9) Unit cost of
item
(10) Prior
planning
(11) Control
(12) Cycle time
(13) Balance of
load
(14) Job
instructions
94
Relatively difficult
Few job instructions
when the product of
another lot begins
Quite less
Built in types, wide
scope for mechanised
material handling
system e.g. conveyors,
over head rails etc.
Low, since production
is continuous
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(15) Investment
in machine and
equipment
Investment in
machines
comparatively more
(16) Changes in
machine set up
New set up is
necessary when the
batch changes
becomes a routine.
High investment in
machines since there
may be duplication of
machine for each
production line
Set up to machines
remains unchanged for
a larger period since
standard products are
manufactured in a
continuous flow.
QUESTIONS
1. Define the term Production Planning and Control. State its objectives.
2. Explain the relationship between Production Planning and Control.
3. Describe the functions of production planning and control in brief.
4. Define the terms (i) Production (ii) Planning (iii) Control. Explain how they are
related with each other.
5. Define Routing. Explain the routing procedure in brief.
6. Explain how the routing differs in job order, intermittent and continuous
production systems.
7. Describe 'Route Sheet' with suitable example.
8. What is Scheduling? How does it differ from loading? State the objectives of
Scheduling.
9. Define Scheduling. Describe the factors affecting Scheduling.
10. What is machine loading? What are its objectives ?
11. What is dispatching? State the various activities of dispatching. in brief.
12. Differentiate between "Centralised dispatching" and "Dis-centralised
dispatching".
13. Define production control. Explain its importance.
14. Describe the follow up or control phase of PPC.
15. State the advantages of better production planning and control.
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(ii) Loading
(iii) Scheduling
(iv) Dispatching
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(iii) Any inspection to be done separately (not during operation), should be clearly
shown.
In general, in large production shops where the same products are
manufacture on and on, standard route sheets are printed and released with each
production order. In case of any important information is to be given to worker that
is separately marked with different colour ink on the standard route sheet to draw the
attention of the worker.
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started on one drill press and completed an another, additional time would be
required to withdraw the first drill and remove the part from the press, to position the
part on the second press, and to advanced this drill to where it makes contact with
the part-all the unnecessary activities, could be avoided if the task were completed
on one machine.
Once all the elemental tasks are identified, the precedence table and precedence
diagram are to be drawn. When writing precedence table, the factor to be
remembered is, the restrictions involved in doing a task also to be presented against
the task. Now by means of some illustrated examples, let us discuss the methods
used for balancing the line.
(b)
(c)
List the various elements along with their precedence relationship or logical
relationships and the time required.
(d)
(e)
Consider the highest time element in the table. This time will become cycle
time.
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(f)
Add up all the elemental times and find the total time.
(g)
Divide the total time by cycle time to get the number of work stations required.
(h)
Assign task to stations or group the elements, so that each group is considered
as a station. Here, we must take care to see that the precedence relationship is
not violated. Also total time of all the elements in a group does not exceed
cycle time.
Problem 4.3: There are nine elements in completing a job. The precedence
relationship and the time required (in minutes) to complete each element is given in
the table. Draw LOB.
Steps or elemental tasks
Immediate predecessor
Total:
38 minutes
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select very large number will be explained after the solution of the problem.
(a)
First we shall consider what happens if we take cycle time = total time. The
line diagram will be as shown I figure 4.4 for the given problem.
Idle time compared
to total time in
35
34
Minutes
1 2
Time in Min
Idle time in
36
33
34
30
36
34
32
4 5 6 7 8 9 Output
Min .compared
to cycle time 8 minutes
Figure 4.4: Line diagram for the problem.
There are nine persons on the line, one for each station. Worker on station
number 6 works for 8 min., compared to this the idle time for other workers are
shown in the figure. Now for every 38 minutes one job is completed. Compared to
the total time, idle time of each worker is also shown in the figure. If we consider
that the span of working day as 8 hours,
This is to say that 12.6 jobs will be completed per day with nine workers on the
line.
We see that most of the time the workers are idle and the organisation has o
pay for the idle time. Hence the labour productivity is very low and the product cost
is high.
Suppose, we group the elements in such a way that the total time of the group
does not exceed cycle time (grouping should be done without violating the
precedence relationship given), we will get a better-balanced line. Figure 4.5 shows
the precedence diagram.
The figure 4.7 shows the line of balance for cycle time = 8 minutes. Here we
have 6 stations. Station V has idle time of 4 minutes and station VI has 2 minutes of
idle time. Stations II and I have idle time of 1 minute each. Station III has idle time
of 2 minutes. Idle time of station IV is zero minutes.
Daily productivity = (860)/8 = 60 units per day (with 6 workers only). As we
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see uneven idle time, the line is not perfectly balanced. The uneven idle time may
lead to number of labor problems. ]
Solutions ii. We shall try to write a LOB with a cycle time = 10 minutes.
Figures 4.8 and 4.9 shows the grouping of elements and the line of balance
respectively.
Total time = 38 min
Cycle time 10 min
Taking 8 hour working day, daily producitivity = 48 jobs per day
There are four stations and idle times at station II and I are I minute each.
Hence the line is better balanced.
In case we try the same problem with cycle time as 12 minutes, then also we
get an unbalanced line, with too much of variation in station idle times. While
selecting cycle time and grouping of items, the following points are to be
remembered. (Reader may try the same problem with cycle time as 13 minutes and
see what is the results.).
Depending upon the desired production rate of the line, the cycle time (CT) or
the time between the completions of tow successive assemblies can be determined.
This dictates the conveyor speed in the assembly line or the time allocated to each
operator to complete his share of work on a manual line. The individual work
elements or tasks are then grouped into work stations such that:
(i)
The station time (ST), which is the sum of the times of work elements
performed at the station and should not exceed the cycle time (CT).
(ii)
The procedure restrictions implied by the precedence diagram are not violated.
There are many possible ways to group these tasks keeping the above
restrictions in mind, we can use line efficiency (LE), Balance delay (BD), and
smoothness index (SI) to measure how good or bad a particular grouping is. This is
explained below:
(a)
Line Efficiency (LE) This is the ratio of total station time to the product of
cycle time and the number of workstations.
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Where STj = station time of station j., K = Total number of stations and CT = Cycle
time.
In the examples solved above cycle time = 10 min. Hence
= 0.95, hence line efficiency = 95%
(b)
Balance Delay (BD)This is the measure of the time efficiency and is the total
idle time of all stations as a percentage of total available working time of all
stations.
stations, K cannot exceed the total number of elements, N. (In fact K is an integer
such that 1 K N). Also the cycle time is greater than or equal to the maximum
time of any work element and less than the total of work element times at that
station.
Where, Tj = Time of work element i, N = Total number of work elements,
Tmax = Maximum work element time and CT = Cycle time.
There is yet no satisfactory methodology, which guarantees an optimal solution
for all assembly line balancing problem. The emphasis has been on the use of
heuristic method that can obtain a fairly good line balanced for the given problem.
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time (in seconds) taken is given in the table below. Draw the line of balance.
Element No.
Predecessor element
Time in seconds
3,5
10
11
10
12
8,9,11
Total time
50 seconds
Solutions:
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In the given problem there are 12 elements. They are arranged to columns as
shown in figure 4.6. The same is given in the table 4.6 given below.
Table 4.6: Showing arrangement of elements in the columns.
Elements
2,4
3,5
7,9,10
8,11
12
Columns
II
III
IV
VI
VII
Let us take cycle time (CT) = 10 seconds. Let us count the number of
predecessor for each work element and record in table 4.7. Work element is selected
firs because it has no predecessors (or least number of predecessors). So we assign
element to station number I. Either element 2 or 4 each of which has an operation
time of 3 seconds, can be assigned to station I, which results in a station time of 8
seconds, which is less than cycle time (=10 seconds). If we allocate element 2 to
station I, element 4 cannot be allocated to station I, as station time will be greater
than cycle time. Allocating the element 4 to station II and continue on the same
logic, until all elements are allocated, the allocation will be as shown in Table 4.7
and Figure 4.11.
Table 4.7 Number of predecessors for each element
Work element (i)
Number of Predecessors
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10
11
12
11
Element (i)
Time Ti in
seconds
Station time in
seconds
Idle time in
seconds (cycle
time =10 sec.)
1,2
5+3
II
4,5
3+6
III
3,6
4+5
IV
7,9,10
2+1+4
8,11
6+4
10
VI
12
Station
number
Elements
Ti in seconds
Stations time
in seconds
1,2
5+3
II
4,5
3+6
III
3,6
4+5
IV
7,8
2+6
10,11
4+4
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VI
9,12
1+7
Line efficiency =
Smoothening Index
This should cause no concern, for the Kilbridge and Waster method. As the
method is heuristic method, which gives us a good working solution, with little
computational effort.
STEPS:
(1)
(2)
(3)
Rank the work elements based on the positional weight in step 2. The work
element with the highest positional weight is ranked first.
(4)
(5)
(6)
Repeat steps 4 and 5 until all elements are assigned to the workstations.
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in table 4.10.
Table 4.10 Positional weights of elements.
Element
10
11
12
Positional
weight
(PW)
34
27
24
29
26
20
15
13
15
11
Element (i)
Station Time
(In seconds)
Idle time in
(Seconds)
1,4
5+3
II
2,5
3+6
III
3, 6
4=5
IV
7,10
2+4
8, 11
6+4
10
VI
9, 12
1=7
Line efficiency
Balance delay
Smoothness index
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Because of higher smoothness index the solution is not optimal. Reader can try
to draw LOB with cycle time = 9 seconds. (We will get a better solution)
4.8
Greater idle time at some workstations, and (ii) Reduction of the average
production rate of the line.
In designing lines for random work element times with given means and
variances, some modification of the deterministic line balancing methods are adopted
utilizing the additional criterion, that the probability of the station time exceeding the
cycle time would be kept as low as possible. Elsayed and Boucher discuss some
methods of probabilistic assembly line balancing.
Efficient maintenance service so that the breakdown units are repaired and put
into service as soon as possible.
(b)
Buffer storage of semi finished goods between each pair of stages, so that
entire line does not stop due to failure of one or more units.
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(b)
(c)
shown in the Figure 4.11 For details refer to Elsayed and Boucher.
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Linear Programming method can be used for balancing the line. This is
explained by means of an example.
Example 4.5: A job has 6 elements and the duration of each element is given
below. Draw the line of balance.
Element
Predecessor
1,2
4,5
Time in
seconds
Solution: Total time for the job is 28 seconds. Let us take the cycle time as 10
seconds. Then the number of stations required is given by:
Number of stations= say approximately 3 numbers. Maximum number of
workstations = 6, which is equals to number of elements in the problem.
Now we have to workout for exact number of workstations required and the
allocation of elements to the workstations. Let us write the inequalities and the
constraints, namely constraints for the cycle time, task (element) constraints and
precedence constraints.
ASSUMPTIONS:
i = represents ith element, where i is 1,2,3.....N, where N is the maximum
number of elements.(Here N = 6).
J = Represent j the workstation, where j is 1,2,3...WSmax, being the
maximum number of workstations.
ti = time required to finish i th element.
Decision variables Xij is equals to 1, if the element i is assigned to station j
and is equals to zero, if the element i is assigned to the workstation other than j.
(i)
Cycle time constraint: Cycle time constraint restricts the number of elements
which can be assigned to a work station, such that the total station time should
not exceed cycle time. tiXij C, where C = cycle time assumed. And j =
1,2,3...WS max for the given example.
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(iii) Precedence constraint: Referring to the precedence diagram 4.15 the element
number 3 follows the element 1, thus X31 X11. If element 1 is assigned to
work station 1, then the decision variable X11=1 and if element 3 is not
assigned to workstation 1, then X31 = 0, since 0 1, X31 X11 is permitted.
Other precedence relationship can be written as:
X32 X11 + X12
This indicates that element 3 can be allocated to station 2 only after the
predecessor element 1 has been assigned to either station 1 or to station 2.
Similarly,
X33
...............................
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...............................
X56
.........................................
.......................................
X66 X41 + X42 + X43 + X44 + X45 + X46
Objective Function: The objective is to push the last element into earlier
workstations in order
calculated earlier). This can be achieved by specifying the objective function as:
Minimize Z = 1 (X54 + X64) + 10 (X55 + X65) + 100 (X56 + X66)
Where the assignment of final elements i.e., element 5 and 6 to last few stations
has been made much more costly than their assignment to earlier stations. Elements 5
and 6 are pushed into comparatively earlier workstations and last three workstations
(i.e.4,5 and 6) have been considered for the purpose.
Out objective function is
Minimize Z = 1 (X54 + X64) + 10 (X55 + X65) + 100 (X56+X66)
X54 means, element 5 has been kept at workstation 4
X55 means, element 5 has been kept at workstation 5
X56 means, element 5 has been kept at workstation 6
It can be inferred from objective function that the cost of keeping element 5
at workstation 6 is 10 times the cost of keeping the same at workstation 5 and 100
times the cost of keeping the same element 5 at workstation 4, and similar is the case
for element 6.
MODULE-4
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The manipulator (or arm), which has a series of mechanical linkages and joints
capable of movement in various directions to perform the work task.
(b)
The controller, which actually directs the movements and operations performed
by manipulator. The controller may be an integral part of the manipulator or
may be housed in a separate cabinet.
(c)
The power source, which provides energy to the actuators on the arm. The
power source may be electrical or a combination.
Major reasons for the use of robot in industry are: (a) Increased productivity,
(b) Adoptability (c) Safety, (d) Ease of Training, (e) Good return on investment
and (f) Greater reliability. Robots are used in industry in following operations:
Welding, Drilling, Assembly, Inspection, Materials handling, Machine loading,
Die-casting and many more.
Dispatching
Definition:
The literal meaning of the term is sending to destination or starting something
on its way. When applied to production control, it means assignment of work to
definite machines or workplaces which involves issue of orders and production forms
in order of their priority as determined by scheduling. In fact dispatching translates
the planning into physical work or reality.
Duties of dispatcher
(i)
Movement of material from stores to the first process, and from process to
process.
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(ii)
Issue of tool orders instructing the tool department to collect and make ready
tools, jigs and fixtures in advance of the time at which the operation will
commence.
(iii) Issue of job order authorizing operations, in avoidance with date and time
previously planned and entered on loading charts, route sheets and progress
control sheets or boards.
(iv) Issue of time tickets, drawing, instruction cards and other necessary
information to individual personnel performing the work.
(v)
(vi) Issue of more orders and collection of time tickets, drawings and instruction
cards for all completed operations.
(vii) Recording time of beginning and completing jobs and calculating duration
forwarding complete records to production dept. and time card to payroll
department.
(viii) Recording and reporting idle time of machines and operators.
Work orders- While starting the production, work orders are issued to
commence the desired lot of products.
(b)
Time cards Each operator is supplied with this card in which he mentions the
time taken by each operation and other necessary informations. These cards
are helpful for the wage payments.
(c)
Inspection Tickets These tickets are sent to the inspection department which
shows the quality of work required and stages at which inspection is to be
carried out. Afterwards these are returned with the inspection report and the
quantity rejected.
(d)
More tickets These tickets are used for authorizing over the movement of the
material from store to shops and from operation to operation.
(e)
Tool and equipment tickets It authorizes the tool department that tools, jigs
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2.
Analyzing the data by comparing progress with the plans and with
achievements of competitors.
3.
4.
each is worthless and indeed pointless without the others. There is no need to make
observations and collect data if they are not being used for analysis. Any analysis is
equally pointless if its results are disregarded, and when corrective action is
undertaken but confined to immediate patching up, the control procedure lacks the
vital feedback that is possible only after evaluation, and without which the system is
deprived of the opportunity of learning from mistakes and experience.
The function of program planning is concerned with the planning of what the
factory shall make in terms of products and times. This broad plan is broken down at
the ordering stage into instructions to departments in terms of batches of components
and is concerned with the planning of work operations on individual work centers.
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Process
1. Active Process:
Output vs Time
2.
Idele
Process:
Machine
idle
time; break downs
Compare
progress
with plans
Inventory
Inspection
Records
of Process
stock level
control charts
Immediate
action
Expedite
Evaluation
Process
Capacity
maintenance
schedules
Issue
production
and
procurement
orders
Replenishment
policies,
inventory
systems
Analysis
Cost
Collect
cost data
Distribution of Process
demand, trend, capabilities,
seasonal
trends
fluctuations
Compute
cost and
compare
with
estimates
Initiate 100% Adjust
inspection
sales price
adjust
if possible
processes
Reassessment
of
specifications,
process
improvement
inspection
procedure
Economic
evaluation
of
processes
preparing
better data
for future
estimates
The function of program planning is concerned with the planning of what the
factory shall make in terms of products and time. This broad plan is broken down at
the ordering stage into instruction to departments in terms of batches of components
and time. Dispatching is t he final process in this analysis of the program and is
concerned with the planning of wok operations at individual work centers.
This activity of disseminating information to the production department to start
production is known as Dispatching. This stage where scheduling or planning ends
and production starts. Once the production activities are started, control starts. In
small departments dispatching is done by foreman or other line manager concerned
normally carries out as a function, which as a part-time job. In large departments,
particularly, if they are equipped with general purpose machinery, if they are laid out
on a process (functional) layout, and if they carry out large number of different
operations there is too much detailed clerical work involved in controlling the orders
for it to be done as a part-time job by the foreman, and a specialist dispatcher is
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The receipt and filling of all of Shop Orders and associated documents.
(ii)
(iii)
(iv) The issue of instructions to the setup workers, concerning what machines are to
be set-up- for which jobs.
(v)
(vi) The issue of instructions concerning the issue and return to stores of special
tooling.
(vii) Maintenance of records of production.
All these different jobs are normally controlled form a Dispatchers office,
located near that of the foreman and equipped with a desk at a window or hatch, at
which the operatives report to receive instructions concerning which job they are to
do next.
Occasionally the dispatching duties are split between a number of different
people. For example, a time clerk dealing with the actual issue of Job Cards and the
maintenance of time and quantity records, without any responsibility for scheduling
the order of work, or for material and tool movement.
The dispatcher, in this case, is a member of the Foremans staff. In many
organizations the dispatcher in each shop are part of Production control staff and
report directly to the Production controller.
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which are laid out as per process layout. In the line production dispatching is very
simple, because the operator normally do the same jobs all the time, and there are no
special component shop orders, material movement, set ups or tool moves to be
organized. In line production it is only in the assembly shops that dispatching can be
complicated. In case of Group lay outs, where jobbing and batch production is
carried out the dispatching tends to be simple. It is because in-group layout a group
of machines are set in as a group and they are tooled to do specific similar of jobs
(family of products) by using special tooling designed for minimum set up. Using
period batch control or standard batch control and a group of incentive scheme with
this type of layout, dispatching paper work can be reduced to the absolute minimum.
The complexity of dispatching is mainly a function of layout, and of organization.
Figure 6.1 gives the duties and documents of dispatching.
Various documents to be prepared by dispatcher in batch production (on
functional layout) are:
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
A Material Requisition
(iv)
A Follow card
(v)
(vi)
(vii)
(viii)
accordingly, and for each operation there is a material and tool issue, a job card that
details the task and the methods to be used, an inspection order and information
about the next destination of the component. Finally the dispatching function is
responsible for keeping records of actual operation times, idle man and machine
times, length and causes of breakdowns, and any other relevant information about
reality keeping within schedule or deviating from it. These records can be used for:
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(i)
(ii)
Examining the cost of the job and the product and comparing with the planned
budget and the initial cost estimates,
(iii) Comparing operation times with the estimated times and verifying whether the
discrepancies are consistent with past experience, so that future estimates can
be made more accurate,
(iv) Locating weak points in the production line, so that work-study can be
undertaken to explore ways of alleviating the difficulties,
(v)
Studying how much idle time was caused because of schedule interference i.e.
overlap in operation times due to uncontrollable delays or too tight a
production schedule,
(vi) Studying how much delay was caused by machine breakdown and whether the
maintenance and emergency repair facilities were compatible with the
requirements of the situation, (to find optimal number of repair men required to
install preventive maintenance scheme),
(vii) Analyzing the delays caused by tool breakdown, regrinding and resetting, to
ensure that the specified speeds are compatible with reasonable amount of tool
wear,
(viii) Analyzing to what extent both queues and delays are cause by inadequate
materials handling systems.
One thing we have to remember is that the exercising the dispatching
function depends very much on the type of production and on the size of the plant.
The dispatching effort, after releasing the orders, would then be mainly devoted to
maintaining the records, and this can be done effectively by dispatching stations
located along the production line, each being responsible for recording progress at
production centers.
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through put time. For this the dispatcher has to follow three principles, they are:
1.
Principle of completion: by due date: This aim states that all jobs are to be
completed by due-date. Here the dispatcher has to consider factors like
available load on hand and available capacity and release orders for production
such that all orders are completed by due date.
2.
3.
Minimum Setting-up time: When work centers are used in proper sequence to
do the jobs, say for example that with a single set-up, different jobs requiring
the same tool can be done at a time so as to avoid different set up time for each
job when they are done at different point of time.
All the above three concentrates on optimal utilization of the plant, which is the
ultimate goal of Production Planning and Control.
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take into consideration savings possible in setting up time if like jobs are scheduled
to follow each other and it makes close planning i.e. the starting of one operation
before the previous one is finished, which is difficult to arrange. As soon as the
operation/job is over the operator after punching the finishing time on the job card,
hand over the card to the Dispatcher and who in turn give the card for another
operation.
As each operation is over, the Dispatcher does the following work:
(i)
Moves the order in the work center file to the section reserved for the work
center for the following operation.
(ii)
Issue a move ticket for the movement of the materials to the next machine.
(iii) Enters particulars on the progress copy and on the daily plan of the quantity
completed.
6.6.2 Dispatching With Operation Scheduling
On receipt of the order and associated documents the first work done by the
dispatcher is to load the different operations on the chart against the appropriate work
center. The advantage of this method is it gives a good visual indication of the load
ahead and of progress achieved and that it enables close scheduling to be practiced,
thus giving higher throughput rates than are possible by due date sequence filing.
No.
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Name:...................
Material with specification:............
Drawing No......
Part Drawing:
Quantity:...............
.
Issue date:...........
Routing Operation Description Material Tools
Dept.
handling
Machine
Jigs &
fixtures
Time
Set
up
Prepared by:
dept.
Checked by:
Operation
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Order No......
No.../.....
Job No.
Assembly/Machine No...
Material:........ Quantity:.......Weight per piece:......Kg. Drawing No:............................
Date of issue:.......................Standard time:..................Hrs.................................... Mins.
Time
Operation
Description
Machine
Special
Feed
Speed
Depth
Finish
Tools
Set
Opern.
total No.
of
&
Instruments
cut/mm
m/min
of cut
size
&
up
time
mm
mm
Jigs
operation
Technologist
& its No
&
Checked by:
Date:................................
No:.../....
Part No:.......
Drawing No:......
Total Sets:........
kg.
Total
Scheduled time
Start
Operation
number
Descri
-ption
of
operati
on
Set
up Operation
time
time in
in
sec
sec
Date
127
Time
Actual time
Finish
Data
Start
Time Date
Time
finish
Date
Time
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Machine No...
Card location:....
Rate setter:...
From
To
Lost
hours
Inspection
Code
Delays
Code
Quantity
passed
1. No. Drawing
D
2. No.Material
M
3. Breakdown
B
4. No. Crane
C
5. No. Tool
T
Rejection due to
6. No.gage
G
Man
7. Operator Idele I
8.
9.
10.
Quantity
Rejected
Signature
of
Inspector
Material
Drawing
Inspection Report:
Remarks:...........................................................................
.............................................................................................................................................................
(Job Card: Side 2)
MOVE CARD
No:.../....
Date:................
MOVE CARD
128
Time:...................
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INSPECTION CARD
Inspection Branch:.......................
Order No:.................
Type of Inspection:..............
Changed to:..................
Part No:......
Date:........
Quantity
Number scrapped
Material
Number passed
Number rejected
No:..../......
Causes of rejection:
............................................................................................................................................................
............................................................................................................................................................
Description:..........................................................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................................................................
Inspector:...........................
Date: ............................
INPOECTION CARD
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that it is to be indented form stores. Present day mass production shops and batch
production shops uses computerized route sheets.
6.7.2. Job Card
Job card is prepared by dispatching section with an idea to book the labour
involved in each operation. The idea is to fill in the time spent by an operator on each
operation. Number of job cards is equal to the number of operations to be performed
in a shop. The information includes part details, operator number, and quantity to
produce, time allowed, inspection report and destination of the component after the
last operation.
Some of the features of a job card may be given in other cards, if used, for
example: Time ticket, work ticket, Inspection card and move card etc. In such a case,
only the required information is filled in. Before release of work card or job card, it
is date stamped. If it is used as an authority to withdraw tools, jigs etc., When order
is finished, it is again date stamped and other passing through the planning
department, to signal the completion of operation, it is available for costs and pay
roll work.
6.7.3. Inspection Card
In this card the details of inspection are noted. Out of total produced quantity,
how many are rejected, how many are passed, reasons for rejecting, precautions to be
taken in future to reduce/avoid defective components are noted in this card. This will
give information to the quality control department. If a separate inspection card is
used, it is sent to planning department to signal the completion of the job and time or
work card is sent directly to the pay roll department. Inspection card helps planning
department to help the department of take decisions regarding replacement or repair
of faulty components.
6.7.4. Move Card
Move cards are often used, where he transport problem/handling problem
justifies their use. For example, Steel Plants, Power Plants and Automobile Units
uses move card for handling the components. In case, a check on material handling
persons time is desired to calculate his pay, provision is made on the move card to
not the time taken to move the materials. In small units, this card is combined with
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(ii)
(iii)
(iv) Make arrangements of correcting the small deviations by taking the help of
shop floor manager
(v)
Program control: Here the actual production output is compared with the
production program, in case of sales, compare actual sales with the sales
program and report the deviations to the line managers to take necessary steps
in order to avoid such deviations in future.
2.
Order Progressing: Here the due dates of production orders and purchase
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orders are compared with their actual completion dates or material received
date. In case any over due is noticed, it is immediately reported to the line
managers to see that thee corrective action is taken.
3.
4.
Daily plan progressing. This is the control used at the third level of production
control, to see that the daily plans made during dispatching are achieved or not.
In case the plans are not achieved to the required extent, the reasons are noted
and sent in feedback to the management.
5.
Program control
There are many different ways in which production output can be recorded
and compared with production plan. Three different types of methods are discussed
below:
I. Cantt! charts: Gantt chart used in scheduling and loading also in expediting
the progress of production. the American engineer, Henry L. Gantt, originates this
chart, and consists of a simple rectangular grid, divided by a series of parallel
horizontal and vertical lines, as shown in the figure number 6.1.
Plant
No.
Description
1.
Turning on
lathe (No.L
201)
Monday
Tuesday
Wednesday Thursday
132
Friday
Saturday
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2.
Rough
drilling
(No.D 108)
3.
Reaming
(No.R 105)
4.
Tap
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M\CS
M\CA
TIME
M\CB
M\eC
Figure 6.2 :
completed in the prescribed time due to some trouble, to reschedule it else where
when the facility is idle is very difficult. For this, whole chart is to be redrawn. To
overcome this defect, control boards have been devised. These control boards are
provided with slots than the lines on the chart. In these slots, a card cut to size of the
time interval and with job details drawn on it is inserted. When we look at the board,
we see number -of cards inserted on the chart. As and when one particular job is
over, that card is removed and another job in sequence is allocated to the facility. To
know the progress, a thread is fixed on the frames of the board and this thread is
pulled to the required time and the progress of each job is noted along the thread and
recorded. When the job is half the way and due to some difficulty it could not be
continued, then the card is removed and inserted again when the facility becomes
idle. Control boards are very useful and convenient for scheduling and loading. It is
very common that one can see a control board in a modern production shops.
Advantages gained in control boards are: Sliding of the cards is very easy and quick
when compared to redrawing a chart. When there is a change in the plan it is a
relatively simple job to reposition the cards in the sliding holder. If there in any gain
or loss of time in plan for any particular work center can be resynchronized, by
sliding the holder itself to the right or left, without !TI0ving the cards themselves in
the holder.
Another type of control board is also available, where the cards are fitted into
overlapping card pockets, with transparent lips. Each card is cut to the length
representing the standard time of the job concerned. When all the job pockets are
hanging down the board has the appearance of a Gantt chart. If details are required
about any scheduled item, turning back the top cardholder and reading the
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information from the card in the pocket concerned can find them.
3. 'z' Chart
nother method of program control is by the use of Z Charts. These charts
show actual output at a required period of time (at the end of a week or at the end of
a month. Etc.,) along with cumulative output from the beginning of the year or period
and moving totals at the same time interval. (Figure 6.4). Z charts can be used to
show both the plan and the performance, and deviation from the plan by blocking in
the gap between two curves
6.8.4. Tabulated Records
The plan, performance and deviation can be neatly tabulated instead of chart
symbols, so that everyone can understand clearly.
To conclude, follow up or
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136
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S.
No.
Course
Date
of Date
of
results of comme II
1
Sem Sem.
results
1.
B.A.
10, May
2, June
10, June
1, July
4, Dec.
26,Dec.
1 Jan.2001
2.
B.Com
08, May
26 May
06, June
1, July.
4, Dec.
26, Dec.
1,
Jan.
2001
3.
B.Sc.
06, May
24,
May
06, June
1, July
4, Dec.
26, Dec.
1,
Jan.
2001
etc.
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QUESTIONS
1. Discuss in brief the elements of control.
2. Explain the duties of a dispatcher.
3. Give the names of various documents maintained by dispatching department and
give the specimen of the document, which shows how, the material move during
manufacture,
4. Write a short notes on Gantt chart.
5. Explain the symbols used in Gantt chart.
6. What are control boards, discuss how they are used.
7. What is expediting? Why is it necessary in production control?
SEQUENCING
Assumptions:
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Time intervals for processing are independent of the order in which operation
are performed.
7)
All jobs are known and are ready to start processing before the period under
consideration begins.
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B1, B2...Bn and if there is a tie, either of the smallest processing time should be
selected.
Step 2: If the least time is An, select nth job first. If it is Bm, select mth job last . (as
the given order AB)
Step 3: There are now n-1 jobs left. Repeat step 1 and 2 to the remaining jobs.
Continue till all jobs have been ordered. The resulting order will minimise the
elapsed time T.
Step 4: Find the total processing time as per the sequence and also determine the idle
time.
II Processing n jobs through 3 machines
Consider a problem consisting of 3 machines M1, M2 and M3. Each job has to
go through three machines in the order M1, M2 and M3. The conditions to be satisfied
in order to solve the problem by Johnsons method:1.
2.
Step 1: Convert the three machine problem into two machine problem by introducing
two fictitious machines G and H.
Gi = M1i + M2 i
Hi = M2i + M3i, i = 1,2,3....n
Step 2 : Once the problem is converted to n job 2 machine, the sequence is
determined using Johnsons algorithm for n jobs and 2 machines.
Step 3: For the optional sequence determined find out the minimum total clapsed
time and idle times associated with machines.
III Processing n jobs through m machines
Let us assume that we have a problem in which there are n jobs to be
processed through m machines M1, M2.....Mm in the order M1, M2....Mm. Let Tij
denote the time taken by the jth job on the ith machine.
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Step 1: Find (i) Mm Tij (Minimum time for the first machine)
(ii)
(iii)
Min Tij
Max Tij
Max Tij
Step 3: If the conditions in step II are not satisfied, the problem cannot be solved by
solved by this method, and otherwise go to next step.
Step 4: Convert n job n machine problem into n job 2 machine problem considering
two fictitious machines G and H.
T Gj = Tij + T2j + ..... + T(m1)J
T Hj = T2j + T3j + ..... + Tmj
Step 5: Now obtain the sequence for n jobs using Johnsons Algorithm.
Step 6: Determine the minimum total elapsed time and idle time associated with
machies.
Problems:
Case 1: n Jobs: 2 Machine
(1)
Machine M2
140
M2
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10
Determine (1) Sequence that minimises the total elapsed time (24352)
(2) Total elapsed time and idle time on M2 if any (30 hrs, 2 hrs)
(2)
There are seven jobs which are to be pressed first on Machine I and then on
Machine II. Processing time in hours are given below:
Job
Machine I
24
30
12
20
22
18
Machine II
16
20
20
13
24
02
06
Find the optimal sequence and total elapsed time. Compute idle time on M/c II (ADE
C BGF, 134 hrs, 33hrs)
Case 2: n Jobs: 3 machines
3)
Case 2: Seven jobs are to be processed through 3 machines M1, M2 and M3. The
processing times are given in hrs. Find the optimal sequence of jobs. Find the
minimum total elapsed time and Idle time on M2 and M3.
Jobs
A
B
C
D
E
F
G
M1
3
8
7
4
9
8
7
M2
4
3
2
5
1
4
3
M3
6
7
5
11
5
6
12
We have five jobs, each of which must go through m/cs A, B and C in the order
ABC processing time (in hrs) is as follows: Find the optimal sequence, total
clasped time and idle time.
Job
M/c A
M/c B
10
11
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M/c C
(32514, 51 hrs, A-9, B-31hrs, C-19)
Case 3: n Jobs: m Machines
5.
(i)
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
M6
18
10
25
17
19
11
15
20
12
Find the sequence that minimises the total clasped time required to complete
the following on two machines. Also find the total clasped time and idle time if
any on machine I and II.
Job
Machine I
Machine II
11
PALMERS HEVRISTIC
Palmer proposed a heuristic to minimise the make span measure. He mainly
proposed a slope index Sj is shown below.
Sj = (m 1) tjm + (m3) tjm1 + (m2 + ...... (m3) tj2 (m1) tj1 where n is the
number of machines.
Procedure:
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Processing time
M/c 1
M/c 2
M/c 3
10
11
13
10
12
Priority Sequencing
Priority sequence rules are applied to all jobs waiting in the queue. Then
when the work centre becomes open for the job, the job with highest priority is
assigned. Priority sequencing is a systematic procedure for assigning priorities to
waiting jobs thereby determining the sequence in which the jobs will be performed.
Priority sequencing rules:
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
1.
The processing times for five jobs and their due dates are given for a single
Processing
time (in hrs)
11
Due date(in
days)
16
20
25
15
40
a)
d)
Avg. number of jobs in the system and average job lateness using the following
priority sequencing rule.
(i) SPT
e)
(ii) EDD
(iii) LPT
Process time
11
38 days
Flow time
11
18
27
38
99
Due data
25
40
20
16
15
Job lateness
11
23
144
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(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(ii)
Processing
time
Flow time
Due date
Job lateness
(days)
11
11
15
20
16
27
20
32
25
38
40
Total
38
128
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
(iii)
145
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Job sequence
Processing
time
Flow time
Due date
Job lateness
11
11
15
20
16
27
20
33
40
38
25
13
38
129
24
Characteristics
(i)
(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Rule
Total
completion
time
Avg.
Completion
time
Avg. No. of
jobs in the
system
Avg. job
lateness
SPT
38
19.8
2.61
38
25.6
38
25.6
3.37
3.6
LPT
38
25.8
3.39
4.8
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Materials Management
The materials which are required for the production purposes are normally procured
and stored in raw materials ware houses and then they are shifted to manufacturing
plants if an organisation has a number of plants. Even otherwise, the raw materials
are to be purchased in advance and stocked in stores mainly to smoothen the
production process. Each functional head of materials department will try to optimize
the operation of his own function. But all of them should aim for a common goal of
providing materials with minimum total cost for better functioning of the
organisation.
The different functions of materials management are materials planning, purchasing,
receiving, stores, inventory control, scrap and surplus disposal. If these systems are
designed to function independently, there wont be close coordination among them.
But we need complete integration of these functions for better operation of the
system. the integrated materials management will result in the following advantages:
Better accountability
Better coordination
Better peformace
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ABC Analysis
Fixing EOQ
Selection of suppliers
Follow up
Stores management: The different tasks under stores are listed below
Preservation of stores
Inventory control:
It is essential to provide flexibility in operating a system. the inventory can be
classified into raw materials inventory in process inventory and finished goods
inventory. The raw materials inventory remove dependency between suppliers
and plants. The work in process inventories remove dependency between
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Scheduling:
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relevant factors to determine the safely, minimum, maximum levels and economic
order quantities.
4. Purchasing and subcontracting:
This refers to the locating and development of sources of supply, market research for
purchasing negotiating prices, calling for tenders, selection of suppliers, entering into
rate contract and periodical review of the same, issue of purchase orders with
specifications and delivery schedules etc.
A big establishment project like construction of highway, design, development and
marketing of new product etc can be spitted into small tasks with sequence of their
execution. The time required to complete each task can be estimated and it must be
finished by that time. This is known as work break down structure. The main
objective of doing so are to plan and manage resources resources required to
complete the project, to finish work within specified time, optimize the cost with
time.
MODULE-5
In most of the planning, scheduling and controlling the project, the network analysis
is used. Thus the main objective of network planning are:(a) To complete the project within the stipulated period
(b) To optimise resources utilization
(c) To establish better coordination in interdependent activities
P.E.R.T. (Programme Evaluation & Review Techniques) and C.P.M (critical path
method) are two methodologies to analyse the network.
P.E.R.T. PERT was first used in 1957 as a method of planning and controlling
the Polaris Missiles programme by Booz, Allen and Hamilton together with U.S.
Naval department. The aim was to finish the project two years in advance. It is
very important in the field of project management. It is commonly employed for
conducting the initial review of a project. It is a useful device for planning the
time and resources. PERT helps in decision making.
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After its becoming public property in 1959, producers also thought it to use to
its advantage that has disciplined approach to planning, scheduling, controlling
and monitoring the progress of variety of projects.
It is based on the assumption that operation time cannot be estimated
accurately, because the various uncertainties involved in the working, To take
these uncertainties into account, the P.E.R.T. uses the following three time
estimates.
(i)
(ii)
Pessimistic
time (tp)
(iii)
Network Analysis
Event:
Is a particular instant in time showing the end or beginning of an activity. It is a point
of accomplishment or decision. An activity is bounded by two events. The normal
symbol used to represent an event on the network is a circle, but for some specific
events other shapes can also be employed.
Events are generally represented by circles with event numbers written inside as
represented above.
For numbering the rules devised by D.R. Flukerson is generally adopted.
(a)
coming out of it and none entering it. In any network there will be only one
such event.
(b)
2,3........
(d)
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(e)
(f)
(ii)
The length of the arrow bears no relationship to the time which the
(c)
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(e)
Prerequisites
Bend reinforcement
Dig foundation
A,C
Place reinforcement
C,D
Concrete foundation
G,F
H,I
2.
A C
A D
B E
C F
C G
D H
E I
F J
G K
H K
I L
J L
K L
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(ii)
(iii)
Earliest and latest start and earliest and latest finish dates
(iv)
(v)
Critical path
(a)
It is the latest time by which an event can start without affecting the total
project completion time.
LST = LFT activity time
(d)
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standard deviation can be known to us. These two extreme values are to and tp.
=
tp to
6
tp to
varinance ( ) =
to + tp
2
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to + tp
Expected time =
( te ) =
+ tm + tm
3
tp + 4 tm + to
=
(3)
(4)
(2)
It
is probabilistic approach
(3)
Find the critical path and project duration of the given project. Also
determine EST, EFT, LST, LFT along with TF, FF, IF, and interfering float in
a tabular form.
Acti
vity
Ti
m
e
(d
ay
s)
E
S
T
E
F
T
L
S
T
L
F
T
T
F
F
F
I
F
157
I
N
T
F
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1
2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
5
1
5
1
8
1
2
1
8
1
2
1
8
1
2
1
6
1
2
1
6
1
6
1
8
1
6
1
8
1
6
2
1
1
9
2
4
1
8
2
4
1
8
2
4
(5)
Initial code
Final code
Duration (days)
10
12
16
14
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(3)
The activity details and their predecessors are given below along with
their activity times. Construct the network diagram. Find out the critical path.
Activity
Predecessors
C,D
E,F
Activi
ty
time
EST
EFT
LST
LFT
10
12
12
12
10
13
16
12
16
12
16
16
19
16
19
Activity
Slack
Critical path = A B D F G
(a)
(b)
Calculate the early and late start and finish times for each job
(c)
How much slack job (3,5), job (4,6) and job (7,8) have?
(d)
(e)
If job (2,3) were to take 12 days instead of six, how would the project
Do any jobs have free slack? If so which ones and how much.
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LFT
Slac
k
Free
slac
k
10
10
16
14
14
10
18
16
24
10
12
24
26
14
14
12
14
26
14
26
14
18
28
32
14
16
18
34
24
40
14
26
40
26
40
18
26
32
40
14
14
Acti
vity
Dura
tion
EST
EFT
LST
10
Since the job (2,3) activity B has a slack of 6 days, the project will not be effected by
the change in duration of B.
(6)
listed below (a) Draw the project network and identify all path (b) Find the
expected duration and variance for each activity.
Activity
Optimistic time
(to)
Most likely
time (tm)
Pessimistic
time (tp)
12
12
17
13
11
12
15
10
13
24
11
13
25
36
14
18
22
48
14
17
21
57
21
25
30
67
13
17
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78
12
Activity
Expected duration
Variance
12
11.67
4.00
13
10.83
0.25
15
10.17
0.69
24
11.00
0.44
25
7.67
0.44
36
18.00
1.78
48
17.17
1.36
57
25.17
2.25
67
12.83
2.25
78
9.00
1.00
(7)
TS TE
(a)
TS = 40, TE = 40 P =
(b)
TE = 40, TS = 36 ie, P =
36 40
= 0.5 from table probability is
8
30.8%
48 40
= 1 from table probability is 841%
8
(c)
TE = 40, TS = 48 ie, P =
8.
for activity B. From their reputations. You estimate that activity A has 90%
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likelyhood of being completed on time and that 4 out of 5 times the contractor
B will complete his work on schedule.
(a)
(b)
given below
Activit
y
Precedi
ng
Activit
y
C&
D
Succee
ding
Activit
y
C&
E
D&
F
Time estimates
Normal
distribut
ion data
(Z) +
Probability
%
to
tm
tp
18
17
0.8
78.81
22
0.9
81.59
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16
1.0
84.13
10
1.1
86.43
1.2
88.49
10
22
Draw a critical path for the following net work. Calculate the
to
tm
tp
12
23
35
57
t o + 4t m + t p
4.167
0.83
0.688
9
1.167
0.17
0.028
9
2.00
0.33
0.108
9
4.83
0.50
0.250
79
10
8.33
1.00
1.00
910
10
7.167
0.83
0.688
9
24
3.833
0.50
0.250
46
2.00
0.33
0.108
9
68
10
13
10.00
1.00
1.00
810
6.83
0.83
0.688
9
10
11
1.167
0.17
0.028
9
te =
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S.D. ( ) =
2.7945 = 1.6717
ts te
26 29
= 1.79
1.6717
estimates
Activity
Least time
Great time
(days)
Most likely
time (days)
12
15
13
14
14
30
12
25
26
17
11
36
15
47
27
57
67
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(c)
(d)
Activity
( ) 2
12
13
14
16
25
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26
36
47
16
57
67
Variance of project = 16 + 16 = 32
of project =
Z=
tg te
32 = 5.66
27 25
= + 0.353
5.66
probability % = 63.761 %
Introduction to PERT Cost
Cost is always associated with duration of an activity, and therefore a
project cost is a function of duration. In order to be able to take decision whether a
particular project is to be completed in 6 months or 8 months, the decision making
authority needs to know, in addition to other intangible things, two important things :
a) Direct Cost - The cost which can be charged to individual activities and
consist of direct Labour, material and equipment.
b) Indirect Cost - The cost which are related to control and direction of the
project and consist of financial overheads (interest, consultants and specialists
charges, cost of PERT during the project, supervision indirect material, labour)
These cost generally increase with duration.
It is assumed that for each activity, there is an activity duration for which
the direct cost is minimum. If activity results in more than this time, more resources
and hence more funds are required. For instance a point will be reached beyond
which no further reduction in time will be possible irrespective of the resources
spent. The time for the activity at minimum cost is called normal time and the
minimum time for the activity is called crash time. The costs associated with these
times is called normal and crash costs.
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Cost slope =
2.
3.
4.
P1. From the activity details given below. Determine the optimum project duration
and cost.
Normal
Crash
Cost slope
Activity
Time
Cost
Time
Cost
1-2
100
200
50
1-3
150
350
100
2-4
50
90
40
2-5
10
100
400
60
3-4
100
200
25
4-5
80
100
10
Duration
EST
EFT
LST
LFT
Slack
Remarks
1-2
Critical
1-3
10
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2-4
10
13
15
2-5
10
18
18
3-4
10
15
4-5
10
13
15
18
Critical
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Direct cost = 980 + 2 10 = 1000/Indirect cost = 11 70 = 770/Total cost = 1770/Step 4: The project cannot be crashed any further as the activities on the
critical path are already crashed. The activity (4 - 5) need not be crashed by 2 days,
instead it can be crashed by only one day without affecting the project duration. But
cost changes. There will be a saving of crashing cost of activity (4 - 5) for one day.
Total cost = Rs. 1760/12.
starting and ending nodes. Normal time, cost and crash time and cost figures for all
the activities are given below:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
(f)
(g)
Develop the most economic project schedule, if indirect cost per week is Rs.90.
Activities
Normal
Crash
Weeks
Cost
Week
Cost
1-2 A
60
90
1-4 B
150
250
1-3 C
30
60
2-4 D
150
250
3-4 E
100
100
2-5 F
115
175
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4-5 G
100
240
(b)
(c)
(d)
(e)
If all activities are crashed the total crash cost is Rs. 1165/-
(f)
Cost slope
1-2
30
1-4
50
1-3
30
2-4
50
3-4
2-5
30
4-5
70
All activities has a cost slope less than indirect cost. The activity on the
critical path having minimum cost slope is (1 - 2) Activity A can be crashed by 1
week.
Project duration is 15 weeks.
Direct cost = 705 + 30 1 = 735/Indirect cost = 90 15 = 1350/Total cost = 2085/Then activity 2-4 can be crashed by 2 weeks.
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Steps:
(a)
(b)
(c)
List the various elements along with their precedence relationship or logical
relationships and the time required.
(d)
(e)
Consider the highest time element in the table. This time will become cycle
time.
(f)
Add up all elemental times and find out the total time
(g)
Divide the total time by cycle time to get the no. of work stations.
(h)
Assign tasks to stations or group the elements, so that each group is considered
as a station. Here we must take care to see that the precedence relationship is
not violated. Also total time of all the elements in a group does not exceed
cycle time.
P1. There are nine elements in completing a job. The precedence relationship and
the time required in minutes to complete each element is given below.
Elemental
8.7
38
tasks
Immediate
predecessor
Duration
min
Total station time = 38 minutes
Highest time in the table = 8 minutes, Hence Cycle time = 8 minutes (Note:
you can consider any highest number than highest time element as cycle time. But
cycle time cannot be less than the greatest time element.
No. of work stations =
Total time
38
=
= 4.75 5 stations
Cycle time
8
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Duration in
Cumulative
(sec)
time (sec)
S4
S5
S6
S1
S2
S3
Element
Since the idle time is uneven, the line is not perfectly balanced. The uneven
idle time may lead to number of labour problems.
We shall now try with CT = 10 minutes. No of stations =
Station
Element
Duration
Cumulative
38
= 3.8 4 no.
10
Idle time
time
S1
S2
S3
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S4
10
10
Line Efficiency = Ratio of total station time to the product of cycle time and the
number of work stations
=
38
100 = 95%
10 4
Balance Delay - is the measure of time efficiency and is the total idle time of all
stations as a percentage of total available working time of all stations = 100 - LE =
100 - 95 = 5%
Smoothness Index = is an index to indicate the relative smoothness of a given
assembly line balance. A smoothness index of zero indicates perfect balance.
SI =
( STmax STi )
i.e., SI =
( 10 9 ) 2 + ( 10 9 ) 2 + ( 10 10 ) 2 + ( 10 10 ) 2
2 = 1.4
A company is setting an assembly line to produce 192 units per eight hour shift.
Time (sec)
Immediate predecessor
40
80
30
D, E, F
25
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20
15
120
145
130
115
C, I
1)
2)
3)
4)
What are the line efficiency and balance delay of the solution obtained?
Wagons are required per day. Production time available per day is 420 minutes. The
other information is given below regarding assembly steps and precedence
relationships. Find the minimum number of work stations, balance delay and line
efficiency.
Task
Time (sec)
45
11
09
50
15
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4.
12
12
12
12
08
F, G, H, I
09
Total
195
For the given precedence diagram, carry out the line balancing and improve the
2.
3.
Rank the work elements based on the positional weight in step 2 in the
decreasing order.
4.
Proceed to assign work elements to the work station where the elements of the
highest positional weight and rank are assigned first.
5.
6.
Repeat steps 4 and 5 until all elements are assigned to the work stations
5.
number of shifts per day is two and no. of working hours is 8. The company aims to
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Duration (min)
2, 3
3, 4
5, 6
4, 6
10
7, 8, 9
Cycle time =
2 8 60
= 12 min
80
55
= 4.58 5 stations
12
Opem.
RPW
Opem.
RPW
32
20
25
12
23
15
25
17
23
10
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177