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GERMANIA

1. STATISTIC DESCRIPTIV
PIB

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Trim.1 515,500.0 591,220.8 584,319.1 582,126.0 591,478.8 587,157.2 612,441.7 638,887.4 652,239.2 609,474.7 625,342.0 662,946.4 672,944.2 661,656.4 679,007.3
Trim.2 523,900.0 596,703.4 597,606.4 589,737.2 599,218.9 606,765.6 621,278.5 642,434.9 662,236.9 610,248.7 639,016.4 662,752.9 664,752.5 669,461.1 676,040.2
Trim.3

536,120.0 606,701.1 613,215.8 608,055.6 611,603.2 619,472.4 641,273.9 662,494.9 669,719.1 632,050.2 661,075.9 682,167.9 682,941.9 689,650.0 697,906.2

Trim.4 540,960.0 604,185.6 603,605.0 601,670.0 607,217.1 613,151.3 641,209.4 654,496.7 642,370.4 627,083.6 654,690.2 666,494.0 664,817.0 672,621.6 683,393.4

800000
700000
600000
PIB

500000

TRIM 1

400000

TRIM 2

300000

TRIM 3

200000

TRIM 4

100000
0
1

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

1.1. INDICATORI STATISTIC DESCRIPTIV


2000

2001

Mean

529120

Standard Error

5787.474982

Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
Eroare SP

530010
#N/A

2008
Mean
Standard Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count
Eroare SP

11574.94996
133979466.7
-2.87682921
-0.28630671
25460
515500
540960
2116480
4
1.09379252

Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

2002
599702.725
3535.68031
600444.5
#N/A
7071.36062
50004141
-2.7559703
-0.3852736
15480.3
591220.8
606701.1
2398810.9
4
0.58957216

Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

2003
599686.58
6047.5918
600605.7
#N/A
12095.184
146293466
0.4442144
-0.415053
28896.7
584319.1
613215.8
2398746.3
4
1.0084588

Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

2004
595397.2
5829.118428
595703.6
#N/A
11658.23686
135914486.6
-2.805009556
-0.102477149
25929.6
582126
608055.6
2381588.8
4
0.979030205

Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

2005
602379.5
4446.849712
603218
#N/A
8893.699423
79097889.43
-1.7761818
-0.40647695
20124.4
591478.8
611603.2
2409518
4
0.738213985

Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

2006
606636.625
6992.035607
609958.45
#N/A
13984.07121
195554247.7
1.57324884
-1.21896455
32315.2
587157.2
619472.4
2426546.5
4
1.152590417

Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

656641.4 Mean
Standard
5953.827 Error
657238.1 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
11907.65 Deviation
Sample
1.42E+08 Variance
-1.5488 Kurtosis
-0.22899 Skewness
27348.7 Range
642370.4 Minimum
669719.1 Maximum
2626566 Sum
4 Count
0.906709

619714.3 Mean
Standard
5780.196 Error
618666.2 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
11560.39 Deviation
Sample
1.34E+08 Variance
-5.07774 Kurtosis
0.153488 Skewness
22575.5 Range
609474.7 Minimum
632050.2 Maximum
2478857 Sum
4 Count
0.932719

645031.1 Mean
Standard
8034.152 Error
646853.3 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
16068.3 Deviation
Sample
2.58E+08 Variance
-2.17088 Kurtosis
-0.45294 Skewness
35733.9 Range
625342 Minimum
661075.9 Maximum
2580125 Sum
4 Count
1.245545

668590.3 Mean
Standard
4606.83 Error
664720.2 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
9213.659 Deviation
Sample
84891514 Variance
3.234944 Kurtosis
1.802821 Skewness
19415 Range
662752.9 Minimum
682167.9 Maximum
2674361 Sum
4 Count
0.689036

671363.9 Mean
Standard
4311.998 Error
668880.6 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
8623.996 Deviation
Sample
74373314 Variance
-0.409 Kurtosis
1.025242 Skewness
18189.4 Range
664752.5 Minimum
682941.9 Maximum
2685456 Sum
4 Count
0.642274

673347.3 Mean
Standard
5902.573 Error
671041.4 Median
#N/A
Mode
Standard
11805.15 Deviation
Sample
1.39E+08 Variance
1.868999 Kurtosis
1.08437 Skewness
27993.6 Range
661656.4 Minimum
689650 Maximum
2693389 Sum
4 Count
0.876602

2007
629050.9
7265.825
631244
#N/A
14531.65
2.11E+08
-4.23641
-0.31021
28832.2
612441.7
641273.9
2516204
4
1.155046
684086.8
4847.729
681200.4
#N/A
9695.458
94001904
2.090954
1.45331
21866
676040.2
697906.2
2736347
4
0.708642

Mean
Standard
Error
Median
Mode
Standard
Deviation
Sample
Variance
Kurtosis
Skewness
Range
Minimum
Maximum
Sum
Count

2. Model Regresie Liniar Simpl

YEAR

GDP

General Government expenditure

2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

2,116,480.0
2,179,850.0
2,209,290.0
2,220,080.0
2,270,620.0
2,300,860.0
2,393,250.0
2,513,230.0
2,561,740.0
2,460,280.0
2,580,060.0
2,703,120.0
2,754,860.0
2,820,820.0
2,915,650.0

947,098.0
1,022,525.0
1,044,200.0
1,061,545.0
1,051,570.0
1,062,999.0
1,069,695.0
1,076,099.0
1,116,223.0
1,170,508.0
1,219,219.0
1,208,565.0
1,224,500.0
1,255,570.0
1,290,699.0

Regression Statistics

Government revenue, expenditure and main aggregates Line Fit


Plot

Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0

0.943560064
0.890305594
0.881867563
86821.85785
15

2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP

ANOVA
GDP

1,500,000.0

df

SS

MS

Predicted GDP
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
0.0
0.0

400,000.0

800,000.0

Significance
F
1.31689E105.5110574
07
FINV
2.483
F

Regression

7.95E+11 7.95346E+11

Residual

13

9.8E+10

Total

14

8.93E+11

7538035000

1,200,000.0

Government revenue, expenditure and main aggregates

Coefficients
Intercept

Standard
Error

t Stat

T INV

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper
95%

261536.5
2.144786681 0.436654386
355115.7
209899.5086
0.802562988
774914.7476

Government
revenue, expenditure 2.386816885 0.232365 10.27185755
and main aggregates

1.31689E-07

1.884823516

2.88881

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

-774915

355115.7

1.884824

2.88881

3. Model Regresie Liniar Multipl

YEAR

GDP(mil euro) (Y)

EXPORTS of good and services

Imports of goods and services

DOMESTIC DEMAND

Final consumption
expenditure of households,
services

Government expenditure

2000

2,116,480.0

683,550.0

677,250.0

2,041,200.0

554,420.0

923,360.0

2001

2,179,850.0

731,230.0

689,550.0

2,060,220.0

575,080.0

1,000,780.0

2002

2,209,290.0

760,570.0

664,670.0

2,036,300.0

584,650.0

1,022,330.0

2003

2,220,080.0

767,080.0

682,930.0

2,063,350.0

603,750.0

1,040,720.0

2004

2,270,620.0

846,440.0

735,670.0

2,084,930.0

618,400.0

1,033,600.0

2005

2,300,860.0

919,070.0

803,080.0

2,108,410.0

634,440.0

1,043,450.0

2006

2,393,250.0

1,053,140.0

923,090.0

2,183,850.0

648,950.0

1,049,290.0

2007

2,513,230.0

1,145,410.0

975,430.0

2,258,520.0

666,310.0

1,056,760.0

2008

2,561,740.0

1,191,190.0

1,035,360.0

2,317,970.0

673,930.0

1,090,460.0

2009

2,460,280.0

1,008,090.0

891,370.0

2,257,480.0

683,210.0

1,146,270.0

2010

2,580,060.0

1,188,590.0

1,048,390.0

2,354,800.0

712,180.0

1,194,130.0

2011

2,703,120.0

1,321,430.0

1,185,780.0

2,474,250.0

733,840.0

1,178,650.0

2012

2,754,860.0

1,381,030.0

1,223,120.0

2,508,490.0

749,410.0

1,191,490.0

2013

2,820,820.0

1,387,190.0

1,219,360.0

2,569,770.0

770,400.0

1,223,130.0

3.1.

Analiz 1 Model Regresie liniar multipl

Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.999920801

R Square

0.999841608

Adjusted R Square

0.999742613

Standard Error

3662.133646

Observations

14

ANOVA
df

SS

MS

Regression

6.7726E+11

1.35452E+11 10099.90465

Residual

107289782.7

13411222.84

Total

13

6.77368E+11

Coefficients

Standard
Error

INTERCEPT

93875.55859

51057.23983

1.838633638 0.103261504

EXPORTS of good and services

1.046888567

0.052350652

4.07773E-08

Imports of goods and services

-0.974111032

0.075318222

DOMESTIC DEMAND
Final consumption expenditure of households,
services
Government revenue, expenditure and main
aggregates

0.980728738

0.048510821

-0.257072656

0.153245601

19.99762247
12.93327168
20.2167006
1.677520631

0.11767892

0.058396442

2.01517277

0.078645037

t Stat

P-value

1.20915E-06
3.74304E-08
0.13196175

Significance
F
5.67839E-15

FINV

T INV

2.576927085

2,160

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower
95.0%

23862.64748
0.926167748
1.147795164
0.868862585
0.610457645
0.016983517

211613.7647
1.167609386
-0.8004269
1.092594891
0.096312332
0.252341357

23862.64748
0.926167748
1.147795164
0.868862585
0.610457645
0.016983517

Upper
95.0%
211613.7647
1.167609386
-0.8004269
1.092594891
0.096312332
0.252341357

3.2.

Analiz 2 Model Regresie liniar multipl

Regression Statistics
Multiple R

0.99999887

R Square

0.999997741

Adjusted R Square

0.909088239

Standard Error

4145.002879

Observations

14

ANOVA
df
Regression

SS
3

8.36597E+13

MS

2.79E+13 1623101.152

Residual

11

188991537.5 17181049

Total

14

8.36599E+13

Coefficients
Intercept

Standard
Error
#N/A

Significance F
9.88904E-29

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

#N/A

#N/A

#N/A

Upper
95%
#N/A

Lower
95.0%
#N/A

Upper
95.0%
#N/A

EXPORTS of good and services

1.040244248

0.040223322

25.86172

3.34075E-11

0.951713314 1.128775

0.951713

1.128775

Imports of goods and services

-1.053262486

0.049576492

-21.2452

2.79306E-10

-1.16238

-0.94415

1.03946821

0.003819985

272.1132

2.0724E-22

- -0.94415
1.162379609
1.031060479 1.047876

1.03106

1.047876

DOMESTIC DEMAND

T inv = 2,160

4. MODELE NELINIARE

YEAR

GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

Final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) (X)

1/x

lnX

lnY

X^2

X^3

2000

2,116,480.0

54.1

0.018484288

3.990834

14.56526489

2,926.81

158,340.421

2001

2,179,850.0

54.3

0.018416206

3.994524

14.59476663

2,948.49

160,103.007

2002

2,209,290.0

53.8

0.018587361

3.985273

14.60818175

2,894.44

155,720.872

2003

2,220,080.0

54.4

0.018382353

3.996364

14.61305379

2,959.36

160,989.184

2004

2,270,620.0

54.3

0.018416206

3.994524

14.63556348

2,948.49

160,103.007

2005

2,300,860.0

54.7

0.018281536

4.001864

14.64879352

2,992.09

163,667.323

2006

2,393,250.0

54.1

0.018484288

3.990834

14.68816283

2,926.81

158,340.421

2007

2,513,230.0

52.3

0.019120459

3.956996

14.73707934

2,735.29

143,055.667

2008

2,561,740.0

52.4

0.019083969

3.958907

14.75619727

2,745.76

143,877.824

2009

2,460,280.0

54.5

0.018348624

3.998201

14.71578572

2,970.25

161,878.625

2010

2,580,060.0

53.2

0.018796992

3.974058

14.76332321

2,830.24

150,568.768

2011

2,703,120.0

52.5

0.019047619

3.960813

14.80991722

2,756.25

144,703.125

2012

2,754,860.0

52.7

0.018975332

3.964615

14.82887718

2,777.29

146,363.183

2013

2,820,820.0

52.3

0.019120459

3.956996

14.85253818

2,735.29

143,055.667

2014

2,915,650.0

51.5

0.019417476

3.941582

14.88560334

2,652.25

136,590.875

4.1.

Modelul Hiperbolic

1/x Line Fit Plot

Regression Statistics
0.855619557

3,500,000.0

R Square

0.732084827

3,000,000.0

Adjusted R Square

0.711475967

Standard Error

135686.1408

Observations

15

GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

Multiple R

ANOVA
df

SS

MS

35.52282103

`Significance F

2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0

GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

1,000,000.0

Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

500,000.0

Regression

6.54001E+11

6.54001E+11

Residual

13

2.39339E+11

18410728806

Total

14

8.9334E+11

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Intercept

-8599095.615

1856972.248

-4.630707662

0.0004707

-1.3E+07

1/x

590777164.5

99121981.71

5.960102435

4.74504E-05

3.77E+08

4.75E-05

0.0
0.018

0.0185

0.019
1/x

Upper
95%
4587351
8.05E+08

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

-1.3E+07

-4587351

3.77E+08

8.05E+08

0.0195

4.2.

Model logaritmic

lnx Line Fit Plot


3,500,000.0

Regression Statistics
0.854854755

R Square

0.730776651

Adjusted R Square

0.710067163

Standard Error

136017.0014

Observations

15

3,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

Multiple R

MS

Significance
F

2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0

GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

1,000,000.0
500,000.0

ANOVA

df

SS

Regression

6.53E+11

6.53E+11 35.28705

Residual

13

2.41E+11

1.85E+10

Total

14

8.93E+11

Coefficients

Standard
Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper
95%

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

Intercept

46590518.15

7427976

6.272303

2.87E-05

30543351

62637685

30543351

62637685

LN X Cht consum final

-11092637.17

1867356

-5.94029

4.9E-05

-1.5E+07

-7058459

-1.5E+07

-7058459

0.0

4.9E-05

3.92

3.94

3.96

3.98
lnx

4.02

4.3.

Model exponenial

Final consumption expenditure (% of


GDP) (X) Line Fit Plot

Regression Statistics

14.95

0.84713654

R Square

0.717640317

Adjusted R Square

0.695920341

Standard Error

0.056038455

Observations

14.9
14.85
14.8
lny

Multiple R

15

14.75
14.7

lny

14.65

df
Regression

SS
1
13

0.040824

Total

14

0.144582

Coefficients

Final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) (X)

19.15101141
-0.083088332

MS

0.103758 0.103758 33.04057

Residual

Intercept

Predicted

14.6

ANOVA

Standard
Error

14.55

Significance
F

14.5
51.0

6.73E-05

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper
95%

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

0.772126 24.80297

2.48E-12

17.48294 20.81909

17.48294

20.81909

0.014455

6.73E-05

-0.11432

-0.11432

-0.05186

-5.74809

53.0

54.0

55.0

Final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) (X)

0.00314

t Stat

52.0

-0.05186

lny

4.4.

Model Parabolic (polinomial de ordin 2)

Final consumption expenditure (% of


GDP) (X) Line Fit Plot
3,500,000.0

Regression Statistics
0.86257956

R Square

0.744043497

Adjusted R Square

0.70138408

Standard Error

138038.7355

Observations

15

3,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

Multiple R

2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
1,500,000.0
Predicted GDP(mil.
euro)(Y)

1,000,000.0
500,000.0

ANOVA

df

SS

MS

0.0

Significance F

51.0

Regression

6.64684E+11

3.32E+11

Residual

12

2.28656E+11

1.91E+10

Total

14

8.9334E+11

17.44148

0.000281188

52.0

53.0

54.0

55.0

Final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) (X)

x^2 Line Fit Plot


Intercept
Final consumption expenditure (% of
GDP) (X)

126148457.5
4438628.314

x^2

39733.50075

-169697174

Upper
95%
4.22E+08

Lower
95.0%
-1.7E+08

Upper
95.0%
4.22E+08

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

0.929045

0.371177

5102764.644

-0.86985

0.401448

-15556597.37

6679341

-1.6E+07

6679341

47925.78205

0.829063

0.423254

-64687.80793

144154.8

-64687.8

144154.8

3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

Coefficients

Standard
Error
135782949.2

2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

1,500,000.0
1,000,000.0

Predicted GDP(mil.
euro)(Y)

500,000.0
0.0
2,600.00
2,700.00
2,800.00
2,900.00
3,000.00
3,100.00
x^2

Model polinomial de ordin 3


GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

4.5.

Final consumption expenditure (% of


GDP) (X) Line Fit Plot

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R Square
Standard Error
Observations

0.87734291
0.769730583
0.706929832
136750.9336
15

3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
0.0

GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
51.0

52.0

53.0

54.0

55.0

Final consumption expenditure (% of GDP) (X)

SS

MS

Significance
F

Regression

6.87632E+11

2.29E+11

12.25671

0.000787

Residual
Total

11
14

2.05709E+11
8.9334E+11

1.87E+10

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

x^2 Line Fit Plot

Upper
95%

Lower
95.0%

Upper
95.0%

Intercept

7554866883

6935291381

-1.08934

0.299295

-2.3E+10

7.71E+09

-2.3E+10

7.71E+09

Final consumption expenditure (% of


GDP) (X)

430111140

392319551.8

1.096329

0.296356

-4.3E+08

1.29E+09

-4.3E+08

1.29E+09

7396497.477

-1.10234

0.293848

-2.4E+07

8126129

-2.4E+07

8126129

46475.31709

1.107734

0.291611

-50809.2

153773.8

-50809.2

153773.8

x^2
x^3

8153452.086
51482.30557

GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

df

3,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
1,000,000.0
500,000.0
0.0

GDP(mil. euro)(Y)
Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

2,600.00
2,700.00
2,800.00
2,900.00
3,000.00
3,100.00
x^2

x^3 Line Fit Plot


GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

ANOVA

4,000,000.0
3,000,000.0
2,000,000.0
GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

1,000,000.0

Predicted GDP(mil. euro)(Y)

0.0
130000 140000 150000 160000 170000
x^3

5. REZULTATE MODELE NELINIARE

Column1

Model
Hiperbolic

Model
Logaritmic

Model
exponential

Model polinomial de
ord 2

Model polinomial de
ord 3

Multiple
R

0.855619557

0.854854755

0.84713654

0.86257956

0.87734291

R Square

0.732084827

0.730776651

0.717640317

0.744043497

0.769730583

35.52282103

35.28704517

33.0405673

17.44148295

12.25670999

T stat (a)

-4.630707662

6.272303196

24.80296967

0.929044908

-1.089336622

T stat (b)

5.960102435

-5.94028999

-5.748092492

-0.869847744

1.096328587

0.829063169

-1.102339602

T stat
(b2)
T stat
(b3)

1.107734359