Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
BUCURETI
FACULTATEA DE COMUNICARE SI RELATII PUBLICE
SPECIALIZAREA PROJECT MANAGEMENT
Coordonator tiinific:
Sergiu Stan
Masterand:
Georgiana Nicoleta Ungureanu
Bucureti
Iulie 2015
Content
Introduction......... p. 3
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION TO THE THEORY OF RISKS ............... p. 5
1.1. Analysis of the risk definitions ................................................. p. 5
1.2. Risk classification criteria............................................ p. 8
1.2.a By the character of consequences............................................... p. 8
1.2.b By the character of evidence................................................. p. 10
1.2.c. Depending on the length of time: ....................................... p. 10
1.2.d. By their nature............................................................... p. 11
1.3.
The factors that influence these risks................................... p. 12
1.3.1.Internal factors......................................................... p. 12
1.3.2.External factors ......................................................... p. 13
Chapter 2. Risk Management.................................................................... p. 16
2.1. Defining risk management................................................... p.16
2.2. Risk assessment. ...... p. 19
2.3. Control and risk management ................................................... p. 22
2.4. Process management and optimization methods of decisions in conditions of risk.. p. 26
2.5. The probability and extent of risks................. p. 30
Chapter 3. Case Study: Managing Risk in the SNLO Tg Jiu company. p. 33
3.1. The evolution of lignite mining activity in Oltenia, brief history.. p. 33
3.2. Description of the S.N.L. Tg-Jiu of Oltenia company ........ p.35
3.2.a. Prezentarea produselor i serviciilor . p. 36
3.2.b. Evaluarea potenialului intern al S.N.L. Oltenia Tg-Jiu. p. 39
3.3. Identificarea i evaluarea riscurilor specifice S.N.L.Oltenia Tg-Jiu. p. 41
Concluzii......................................................................................................................... p. 45
BIBLIOGRAFIE p. 47
1. Introduction
Each company defines the way it grows and develops, so this is why its skills to always
be competitive and survive depend, mostly on the ability of the entrepreneur to manage the risks
that may affect the business, to apply different methods of reduction of possible unintended
consequences.
So, in almost all organizations, regardless of the industry, there are concerns about malfunctions
that may occur inside them and that are able to endanger their normal functioning and reputation.
Therefore the study of causes, manner of occurrence and manifestation of these disturbances and
their consequences, grew considerably. Risks are considered to be such malfunctions. Some risks
can be anticipated and prevented, others, in contrast, can not even be suspected, and they usually
install rapidly. Risks have major implications in the life and work of the organization, sometimes
with undesirable consequences. To overcome this deficiency, most scientific fields have
developed their own conception about risks.
The risk itself is not a threat, as treated by the vast majority of entrepreneurs, but rather a
provider of various possibilities for developing and capitalizing the new opportunities offered by
business. It is important to know how these opportunities can be identified and used so as to
achieve positive results.
The risk becomes a serious obstacle in the development and expansion of any activity,
because it burdens the decision process. Any effective work can take place only if the people
who realize it are protected from de negative consequences of risks.
Currently, one of the main conditions for ensuring the security and prosperity of a business,
is the development and implementation of a coherent programme and effective risk management,
instrument that is not currently present in all companies and it is not perceived as an integral part
of a business strategy. The lack of such programme introduces distortions in the risk assessment
and in the selection of the most effective ways to manage it.1
Any risk registration must be accompanied by a proper registration. In fact, long before the
commencement of the risk identification process, a registration system must be developed and
implemented. After identifying the risks, all relevant data must be inserted in order to be used as
a benchmark, in the analysis process of the next period. Current trends manifested in the
economic field both at European and international level clearly show, on one hand, the need of
each organization (economic agent) to establish specific targets on health and safety at work, and
on the other hand, the need to place these goals on the same level of importance as the objectives
of productivity, product quality and environmental protection.
It is also already known that there is a direct relationship between these segments of the general
management of the company, successes / weaknesses within the segment are having positive
effects or adverse, also on the other segments.
1Cocri V., Ian V., Economia afacerilor. - Editura Graphi Iai, 1995
3
The main purpose of this work is to train and develop skills of identification, analysis and risk
management in order to ensure sustainable operations for business and career.
Risk comes from the impossibility of accurately assessing a particular event that is
identified as such by the decision maker who will actually materialize and determine specific
negative results.
Even if the estimated probability for effective materialisation of a particular factor
generating risk is high, the decision maker can not be sure if that event is the one that will
certainly occur and not another. Risk is associated with an objective distribution of probability
measured as the number of occurrences of a determined result after a large number of
observations. This distribution is considered valid for actions carried out under conditions
identical to others that have already occurred and whose results were quantified through
statistical methods.
1.2. Risk classification criteria
Risk classification methods are generated by different types of activity undertaken and are an
important step in understanding the risky entrepreneurship mechanism. Once the types of risks
are known, the main consequences resulting from their influence will be clearly understood, and
then, the most suitable and effective methods for achieving objectives will be chosen.
Risks can be classified according to the following criteria:
1.2.a By the character of consequences,risks are divided into:
Risks can have positive or negative results , or can have an uncertain result.
Thus as defined by the ISO Guide 73, risks are divided into three categories:
Hazard risks (or pure);
Control Risks (or uncertainty);
Risks of opportunity (or speculative).
It is important to remember that there are no "right" or "wrong" risk classifications. There are
other classifications of risk in other texts, these may also be appropriate. Risk division into pure
and speculative risks, is the most common. It is important for each organization to adopt a
classification system that is most appropriate for its specific circumstances.
The pure risks (of hazard)
There are certain risk events that can have only negative results. These risks are called hazard
risks, or pure risks, and are usually insurable or operational risks. In general, the organizations
have a certain tolerance for hazard risks, and they must be managed within these tolerance limits.
Hazard risks are those events that can only have negative results. Consequently, they can
undermine, sometimes very serious, the objectives set by the organization . These risks are often
insurable using specialized insurance companies.
Hazard risk management refers to issues such as health and safety at work, fire prevention,
material damages and consequences caused by damaged products. Hazard risks may cause
5 Stana Elena-Silvia, 2003
7
disruption to the normal operations of the organization, as well as increased costs and negative
publicity due to these disturbing events.
Hazard risks relate mostly to buildings and other fixed assets of the organization,
including production equipment, IT equipment (which can be damaged, can be affected by
various external or internal elements). Overall, they may affect the general staff, premises, assets
of the organization, suppliers, also the information and communication technology in the
organization (ITC).
Theft and fraud may also constitute a significant hazard risk for many organizations. This is
especially true for organizations working with cash or managing a large number of financial
services. Relevant techniques to avoid theft and fraud include adequate security procedures,
dividing the financial duties within the organization and also authorization and delegation
procedures, and thorough pre-employment personnel verification.
The risks of uncertainty (of control)
There are some risks which create uncertainty regarding the outcome of a situation.
These are known as control risks or uncertainties and are commonly associated with project
management. In general, the organizations have aversion towards control risks . Uncertainty may
relate to the benefits of a project, its results delivered on time, within the budget established and
according to specifications . Risk management control is carried out to ensure that the results of
business activities fall within the desired range.
Opportunity risks (speculative)
At the same time, organizations deliberately assume risks, particularly risks related to
market and business in order to achieve earnings. These risks may be considered appropriate or
speculative, and organizations generally have a specific appetite for investing in them.
Control risks are associated with unknown and unexpected events, and can be extremely difficult
to quantify. Control risks are often associated with project management. In these situations, it is
known that the events will occur, but the precise consequences of these events are difficult to
predict and control. Consequently, the approach is based on minimizing the potential
consequences of such events.
There are two main aspects associated with opportunity risks. There are risks / dangers
arising with the assumption of an opportunity, but there are also risks that arise if that
opportunity is not accessed. Risks of opportunity may not be visible or apparent physically,
because they are often financial. Although they are assumed to achieve a positive outcome, this
fact is not guaranteed.
1.2.b By the character of evidence, risks are divided into:
a)
External: the risks affecting the business activities outside are assigned here, therefore inflationary risk,
currency risk, natural etc. is directly related to the activity of the company or its environment contract.
At the level of external risks a variety of factors are driven: political, economic, demographic, social,
geographic, (unpredictable changes in legislation regulating entrepreneurial activity, the instability of the
political regime in the country and the world);
8
b)
Internal: to the internal risks conditional risks are assigned, for the vast majority, such as direct activity of
the company and its partners of contact, to which suppliers is awarded, business partners and
consumers. At the level of such risks, business managing activity takes place, choosing optimal
marketing strategy, policy and tactics of activity and other factors; production potential, technical
equipment, level of specialization, competence and qualification of labor, security technique etc.6
activity and especially, highly publicized ones, led to the managers awareness of the major
importance of risk management.
In the financial and economic life, the risk is part of any activity, being in the daily agenda of
corporate managers. Unforeseen changes in interest rate changes, exchange rate or price of a
product, not only affects the financial results of a company, but can even cause bankruptcy. In
fact, the nature of financial decisions involves uncertainty. 8
1.4.
The risks are the result of the influence of several factors. Some of them may be in the
company's strategy, its mode of work, or can occur as a consequence of the activity directly
undertaken by the entrepreneur.
The emergence of risk may be the result of decisions received within the company or outside
of it, such as: actions of the competitors, the suppliers, the public opinion, the changes to the
market environment, lack of necessary information etc.
According to the study developed by the National Association of Manufacturers in the US,
on average 10 times a year the companies were affected by risk due to the influence of the
following factors:
-> Complaints and penalties for low quality goods;
-> Accidents at enterprises and the failures of equipment;
-> The leakage of confidential information;
-> Failures in the electronic system;
-> The influence of false rumors9
Less according to frequency but higher following consequences, these factors influence
activity: natural disasters, fires and explosions, unpredictable emergence of competitors, the
death of leaders or key specialists in the firm.
We can therefore highlight two main groups of factors that influence these risks:
1.3.1. Internal factors are those that occur inside the firm and that only influence its activity. In
turn, the entrepreneur can directly influence these factors, reducing the negative consequences
or taking advantage of the subsequent expected positive ones. To these factors relate:
The company's strategy is the general direction of activity of the company for a long period of time, bearing
embodiment binding, but it can be changed depending on the internal and external environment factors of the
enterprise.
The development and modification of the strategy can be performed using SWOT analysis
method.
8Drucker Peter F., Managing for results,Harper & Row 1964, p. 203
9JonsGary Comportament organizaional, 1998
10
The quality and the level of use of marketing, is an internal factor, which serves as an informant for
company management, without which the firm is "blind", answering the questions raised: what to
produce ?; for whom ?; whom to sell ?; when to sell ?, if the one in charge of marketing or marketing
department workers are not competent enough, or do not know all the ways of obtaining and processing
information, they generate a whole set of risks, including that of bankruptcy, even if company
management has been perfect. Therefore, correct management but with incorrect information is an
important cause in generating risks, but can be controlled and directed in the right direction.
Resources and their use. Any organization, regardless of its field, use the following
resources: human, financial, material, informational. The manner and intensity of use of
these resources generates the company a set of risks that directly influence the final
expected result.10
12
13
Based on these general descriptions, we see that each type of activity, in addition to the influence of a group of
general risks, is affected by multiple specific risks, where there are specific tools for the identification, assessment
and management.
Identification - first of all risks should be identified they become problematic, and
adversely affect certain situations or projects:
Analysis - risk data is converted into data concerning modes of action on this risk;
Planning - informations gathered are transformed into decisions and actions. It creates
plans for both individual risks and integrated management plans. Overall, several action
plans are developed regarding risks;
Monitoring - consists in continuous tracking of the development of risks and actions
taken to reduce their effects;
Control - corrects deviations from planned actions continuously improving process
management;
12Iepure D. Managementul riscurilor n cadrul ntreprinderilor mici i mijlocii.Economica, nr. 1, 2007, p. 36-39
15
14Moraru, R., Bbu, G., Matei, I., Ghid pentru evaluarea riscurilor profesionale, Editura Focus, Petroani, 2002;
16
17
In conclusion, the risk assessment is very important for the following reasons: the measures
taken allow obtaining a result both of quantitative and qualitative character, and this result
influences their methods of risk optimization and, eventually has an impact on the whole process
of risk management undertaking. The risk assessment is a serious point in the risk management
process and has a clear interconnection with other stages.
2.3. Control and risk management
Risk management is the totality of specific methods, procedures and measures by means of
which highlighting, assessing and, if necessary, the calculation of factors' influence on the risk
examined, are carried out, in order to reduce loss and / or increase company profits.
Risk management activity must be confirmed by regulatory documents and the corresponding
provision, which in each case determines frequency of risk examination, way of reflection,
storage and repeated use of monitoring results and risk analysis; the order in the advancement of
company management, the order of the recommendations to improve their performance and risk
control because one of the provisions of the report submitted by the entity that prepares its
consolidated financial statements and in accordance with Article 31 of the Accounting Act,
relates directly to the description of the main risks and uncertaintiesfaced by the entity and group
of entities.
Typically, enterprise risk management must be carried out following these substantial
principles:
complexity:
appropriateness;
continuity;
functionality;
lawfulness;
economic rationality (criterion "efficiency - effort").
In most cases the risk management process includes the following:
1. Formulating risk management purposes;
At this point it is important to determine the purpose and conditions of performing evaluation.
The purpose may be different: minimization (optimization) or full exclusion of risks etc. At this
stage it is necessary to consider the current status of the activities of the enterprise and its
development prospects, according to the information obtained, to determine risk management
purposes.
2. Identifying risk by areas of activity;
This meaning is conditioned first, by the fact that the efficiency of risks management process
depends on their correct identification. In the case of incorrect actions carried out at this stage,
further efforts will have been inefficient and, the later the error will be detected, the greater the
loss supported by the business. At this stage those types of risks that the eneterprise is facing or
will face should be determined and accurately classified . This is necessary for subsequent
18
accumulation and application of appropriate information and other methods of examined risk
assessment .
3. The collection and processing of information necessary for risk assessment;
The quantity and quality of information obtained depends directly on the effectiveness of risk
assessment - both quantitative and qualitative. Accurate assessment of risk is impossible without
the use of qualitative information. In cases where initial information is distorted and calculations
according to this information are made , the trader suffers losses because the results are
inaccurate, time is lost and additional resources will be needed for the processing of the results
in order to rectify them.
4. The risk assessment;
It is important to distinguish between qualitative and quantitative risk assessment.
Qualitative analysis involves highlighting the forming sources of risk, the stages and work that
lead to risk (determining potential areas of risk, risk of change in dynamics, highlighting all the
positive and negative moments on completing the decision containing risk).
The quantitative evaluation allows to determine the mathematic probability of occurrence of
identified risks , amount of loss (or profit) as a result of actions in risk situations , and the degree
of influence of a system of factorsof on risk the situations, to prepare the company management
the optimal behavior plan in the risk situation and get other information of a quantitative
character reffering to the assessed risks.
Interconnection between risk assessment and needed data collection is evident at this stage again.
If a lack of information isbe detected at the evaluation phase , it is possible to go back and get
necessary data. Such an approach on minimal sufficiency appears to be practical, because it is
better to get the missing information later (when it is necessary), than gathering lots of excessive
data from the start,
spending additional resources for it. In this way, cyclical information
obtaining is ensured, which is necessary for an effective risk assessment .
5. The choice of methods and techniques to optimize risk;
According to the results of quantitative and qualitative risk assessment, a decision is taken on
the application of other risk optimization methods. Note that not only the results of the
assessment phase influnences the choice of risk optimization methods, but also a number of
additional factors, such as the existance of other risk management actions, time limits etc.
6. Application into practice;
Regarding the actual application of risk optimization methods chosen , it is necessary to pay
attention to the fact that in the process of risk analysis a lot of possible options for resolving the
matter are highlighted , and not one, because the risk is generated by the uncertainty of
conditions in which the adoption and implementation of management decisions takes place.
7. Evaluation of the results of risk management.
19
It allows us to determine both the overall efficiency of the whole process and his vulnerable
points in order to strengthen them, and, what is very important, if necessary, return to the
formulation of goals.16
A well-organized system of risk management at the enterprise allows to emphasize possible
potential situations related to the course of events, obtaining possible loss characteristics
(damage) or missed opportunities as a result of conduct of adverse events , taking into account
theorganizational efforts in decision making, significant time consumption and costs related to
risk assessment, rational influence on this level and reduction to an acceptable value.
Risk management is a complex and multidirectional activity and it usually requires
following some stages, in any management process. These stages can be successive or
simultaneous, representing the following specific steps:
Identify activities, operations;
Identifying the risks associated with them;
Establishing risk factors or criteria;
Risk assessment;
Risk ranking or setting priorities;
Establishing an owner, the person responsible for risk management;
Defining an action plan and monitoring its implementation;
Regular reporting on recommendations implementation.
In Romania, risk management activity is relatively underdeveloped. The risk is defined as the
exposure to a particular change or the possibility of adverse deviations from the referred
situation. Risk perception is a complex and subjective process; therefore aggregated global
perception in interested in analysis.
Risk identification can be achieved by various methods, among which:
desk research: studying the documents, the organization developed plans, the results of
competitors, the commercial databases, information held by people involved in similar
businesses, descriptions of conduct of similar business/projects.
The main documents that can be studied are:
- Annual reports (types of activities, geographical distribution of organization, major sources of
profit, areas that can be developed, etc.);
- Financial documents - accounting, statement of fixed assets;
- Site plan, photos, descriptive materials about the premises in which the project beneficiary
activity is carried out, and where the product carried out by the project will be located ,
promotional material about the organization, technical documentation, speciality magazines,
publications for the protection assurance, development conditions of contracts , rental
documents, records about organization insurance etc.;
16Slobodeanu N., Diagnosticul i evaluarea riscului operaional (economic).// Simpozionul Internaional
Integrarea European i Competitivitatea Economic (23-24 septembrie), volumul II., ASEM, Chiinu, 2004.- p.
54-57.
20
site visits: they allow the the discussion with the one exposed to risk, creating contact
information networks, necessary for the risk manager to improve the reports.17
Control and risk management refers to techniques, tools, strategies and processes that are intended to avoid,
prevent, reduce or control the frequency or magnitude of losses or other unwanted effects of risk, risk control
also includes methods that are intended to improve understanding or consciousness in the organization, about
activities that affect risk exposure. Creating a risk management decision enables optimization, risk and
uncertainty mitigation in economic activity. Risk management consists in running a number of processes to
identify, estimate the consequences, evaluate, manage and monitor the risks in a company.18
2.4. Process management and optimization methods of decisions in conditions of risk
Risk management is increasingly considered as a general function of the management of
organization, whose objective is to identify, analyze and control the causes and effects of
uncertainty and risk in an organization. The main purpose of risk management is to support the
company's progress toward goals and objectives in the most direct, efficient and effective
manner.19
The whole decision-making system consists of all the elements that are interdependent and
which determine the choice of the most elaborate and effective decisions. The components of
decision-making system are approximately the same within different companies, but with
specific characteristics of each area and according to the complexity business activity.
In a market economy, there are many factors that may cause the company's efficiency - the
level of demand, selling price of products, consumer demands, competitors strategy - without
being fully under the control of people who decide, which increases the proportion of decisions
in conditions of risk and uncertainty, and their implementation entails the use of appropriate
methods and techniques in such conditions.
Generally in this process of identification of risk factors based on previous experiences
made in projects the manager must pay special attention to developments of the following
factors: analysis of registered performances in parallel with the forecasted ones , identifying the
elements that led to changes in the project and highlighting how these problems were resolved,
the overall analysis of the activities after the project, the final results of the project analysis and,
where applicable, the registration of direct beneficiaries opinions on the quality of products or
services resulting from the implementation of planned activities. The risk manager should
organize specialized documentation so that it may serve as a reference long after project
completion.
The making of a list of possible risks is based on the idea of consulting everyone involved
in a project, the factors that could contribute in a either directly or indirectly to the negative
influence on activities or results of the financing proposal. The primary means by which a
manager comes into contact with the ideas of the consortium partners on the possible risks that
may be posed to the project are: brainstorming sessions and interviews.20
The literature highlights some ways to optimize enterprise risk. The easiest way is to avoid risk.
In this case the enterprise simply does not risk conscious. Avoiding risk is the simplest and least
costly choice for the enterprise in risk situations. In some cases avoiding risk may be simply
impossible, and in some cases, can lead to other types of risk.
To avoid risk is to remove the condition that lies at the heart of the problem. For example,
if parts of the project is associated with high risks, then those parts are removed from the project.
Avoiding might take the form of refusal of assumming risk or abandonment of exposure to
losses that were assumed before. 21
Some risks may be so severe that the activity that generates them should be removed. However,
it is not always possible for the firm to cease certain risks generating activities.
Another method of neutralizing risks is the transfer of risk. Risk transfer is performed
using different techniques of finance, derivative financial instruments, payment methods, and by
contract conclusion.
Risk transfer can be achieved in two ways. The first is the risk-generating activity
externalization to someone else. A classic example of such a transfer is subcontracting those
activities that the organization does not want to assume because it does not have the experience
or resources to carry them out. The second option consists in the transfer of risk, not the business
through a contractual agreement. This is achieved through the development of insurance
contracts. The insurance company assumes some of the risk for a price (the insurance premium).
If the risk occurs under conditions specified by the insurance contract, the insurer will reimburse
the insured or any losses caused by risk. If the risk does not appear, the insurer keeps the
premium.22
Unification or diversification of risks, is also one way of reducing them. In the first case risk
neutralization consists in the union with other participants of the business (or stakeholders in the
business) in order to tallocate responsibilities for possible consequences of risk.
In the case risk diversification , the distribution of risk within the company takes place, in
some way, in different directions and aspects of its business. The basic idea is to reduce risk,
20Carabol Anatol Managementul riscului,Bucureti 1999
21 Williams Smith Young, 1995
22Moraru, R., Bbu, G., Analiz de risc, Editura Universitas, Petroani, 2000.
22
having the reserve of some alternative source of resource substitution. In case of failure, of a
project for example, the possibility exists to cover losses on account of the profit of another
project. It is also necessary to mention that diversifying its activity, the company raises full
flexibility of its overall business, making it more stable and minimizes negative factors influence
on the results achieved.23
Risk assumption. In this approach, the manager examines the impact the risk situation would
have on the project and decides that the risk is not to be treated. This approach should be used
only in situations where the impact is low risk or probability that the risk will occur is very low.
This approach is dangerous for medium or high risk level.
This category also includes the risks in which the company's possibility of action is limited, or
for which the costs of the counter actions are disproportionate with the potential benefits.24
Losses prevention aims to reduce their numbers before they become reality. This can be
achieved either through intervention in the processes the organization is carrying, either through
intervention on the environment in which the action is carried. Reducing losses consists in taking
action after a negative event has occurred. It aims to reduce the unpleasant consequences for
those affected by the event.
Most of the risks are approached by companies in this way. The aim of treating (solving) risk is
that while the organization continues the risk generating work are, control measures and
countermeasures are taken to reduce the risk to an acceptable level.
Recovery of losses and plans for critical situations are known as measures to reduce losses.
Recovery of losses relates to the capitalization of all that can be saved after the negative event
and suing for damages to those who are responsible for the damage done. Plans for extreme
situations include actions that must by taken by the organization in response to such events.
Prior to seeking help from other organizations, the company must use all its internal possibilities to reduce the risk:
Primarily, the control of its business partners;
Secondly, the correct formation of the business contract ;
In the third place, planning and forecasting business activity by drafting the business plan;
Fourthly, the correct choice of company staff.25
Risk management program requires companies to carefully review staff, administration, financial accounts,
management, finance department as well as insurance policies. A careful assessment of risk management policies
can lead to both real immediate benefits and long-term advantages.
2.5. The probability and extent of risks
23Bbu, G., Moraru, R., Managementul riscurilor. Abordare global concepie, principii i structur, Editura
Universitas, Petroani, 2009;
The probability and magnitude of risk can be highlighted best by a diagram called the risk
matrix. It can be built in many forms, being a valuable tool for the risk management specialist.
The basic principle of risk matrix is to report the probability that an event will materialize
depending on the impact (magnitude, extent, severity) of that event.
Figure 2.1 illustrates a simple risk matrix. Probability is depicted on the horizontal axis. It uses
the term probability rather than frequency, because the term frequency implies that the event is
definitely materializing, and therefore the chart would record how often these events occur.
Probability is a broader term that includes frequency, but also includes the possibility that the
event does not occur.
of some indicators, but some estimates are recommended according to the specific scenarios
evaluated. 26
The index (risk factor) is used for risk assessment and occurs as a result of the probability of
materialisation of a risk, and its impact if it materializes:
Risk index= Probability x Impact
The index (risk factor) values between 0 ... 1 (or 1 ... 10, 1 ... 100); where 0 (the probability of
the impossible event ) and 1 (probability of certain event).
The value of risk can then be represented on the risks Matrix .
Risk matrix may also figure mechanisms and risk control measures that can be applied, or
levels of inherent, current (or residual) risk, and the level resulting from the application of
countermeasures. For this purpose color codes can br used on the risk matrix in order to provide
a visual representation of the importance of each risk. As the risks "are moving" to the top right
corner of the risk matrix, they become more important and have a greater impact, so they are
becoming urgent and need to be addressed with priority.
The probability-impact matrix allows the use of two dimensions of risk (probability and impact)
to determine which risk is low, moderate or high for a project.
The organization must determine which combination of probability and impact corresponds to
high risks (red), moderate risks (yellow) and low risks (green). This produces a risk score that
allows the introduction of each risk into one of three categories which will guide the choice of a
particular type of response to risk. Responses to risk are the same in both approaches, namely:
avoidance, transfer, mitigation and acceptance.
Table 1. Values of risk index
Risk index= Probability x Impact
Risk probability
0,9
0,05
0,09
0,7
0,5
0,04
0,03
0,07
0,05
0,14
0,10
0,3
0,02
0,03
0,06
0,12
0,1
0,01
0,01
0,02
0,04
0,08
0,20
0,40
0,80
0,05 0,10
Risk impact
25
26
The Mining Company of Oltenia was founded in 1959 with headquarters in the city of
Craiova. The lack of specialists in the area has made the Ministry of Mines to solicit the Mining
Trust Muntenia to approve the transfer of staff with higher education and even economic and
technical skill in order to be assigned to the newly established enterprise.
After 1960, new mining basins are developing in the Gorj county, respectively that of
Motru and Jilt, and after 1980 Cerna-Olteu basins appear in Valcea county and respectively, that
of the Mehedinti county stationed at Husnicioara and Zegujani.
Because of the existence of such coal reserves in Northern Oltenia, the current energy
infrastructure was created in Romania, from the power plants of Rovinari, Craiova (Ialnia and
Craiova II), Turceni, Halnga, Govora.
The extraction of lignite in the period 1990-2004 was achieved by going through the the
following forms of organization :
1991- REGIA AUTONOM A LIGNITULUI TG-JIU - 80.121 employees, in 199473.400 employees
1997- COMPANIA NAIONAL A LIGNITULUI OLTENIA -32.976 employees
2001- COMPANIA NAIONAL A LIGNITULUI OLTENIA 20.495 employees in
2002- June 2002 - 18.029 employees in 2003- employees 16.868
2004- SOCIETATEA NAIONAL A LIGNITULUI OLTENIA S.A. 9 442 employees
Changing organizational forms was made during this period on the basis of government
decisions, respectively, of restructuring programs, still maintaining Romanian State 100%
ownership .
By HG no.103 / 2004 operating activities in Oltenia lignite basin was reorganized ,
respectively of SC National Lignite Company of Oltenia SA, division and merger of power
plants in the area, the establishment of three companies with the status of energy complexes (of
Rovinari, Turceni and Craiova) and an operating carrying only company, and National Lignite
Company of Oltenia SA has changed its name to Society of Mine Closure Tg-Jiu, with the main
activity of collecting receivables and payment obligations registered on 31.12.2003.
According to article 14 of the decision, the four newly established companies are being
privatized , respectively atracting investment fundraising.
3.2. Description of the S.N.L. Tg-Jiu of Oltenia company
The interest shown in the companies strategy was caused by the fact that the external
environment has become increasingly dynamic and unpredictable, allowing the company to
influence, by anticipation, changes in his environment.
S.N.L. Tg-Jiu of Oltenia was established in 2004 by reorganizing CNL Oltenia S.A. Tg-Jiu
according to H. G. no.103 / 2004. In 2004 C.N.L. Oltenia S.A. Tg-Jiu is divided into National
Society of Lignite Oltenia SA Tg-Jiu and Commercial Company Mine Closure and Preservation
SA Tg-Jiu, and some of the careers unite with the power plants of Rovinari, Turceni and Craiova
forming the complexes Rovinari, Turceni and Craiova.
27
S.N.L. Oltenia S.A. Tg-Jiu took over the main object of activity of CNL Oltenia S.A. Targu
Jiu, respectively lignite exploitation. The underground activity was also taken with its economic
and social issues , and also a growing number of development perimeter that require significant
funding to achieve the planned parameters.
Societatea Naional a Lignitului Oltenia S Tg-Jiu are ca obiect principal de activitate
cercetarea geologic pentru identificarea rezervelor de lignit, exploatarea, transportul i
comercializarea acestuia, i i desfoar activitatea pe raza a trei judee, respectiv Gorj, Vlcea
i Mehedini, n 14 perimetre miniere din care 9 cariere i 5 mine subterane, grupate n 6 uniti
de producie i 4 uniti auxiliare, produsul fiind livrat marilor productori de energie electric i
termic pe baz de combustibili fosili solizi din Romnia.
Societatea are ca scop desfurarea de activiti de cercetare geologic pentru descoperirea
rezervelor de lignit, extracie lignit, producie energie electric pe baz de lignit, mentenana i
furnizare, astfel nct s opereze integrat i s devin un actor principal n plan regional prin
valorificarea cu maxim eficient a potenialului de care dispune Romnia n domeniu.
Experiena industrial acumulat de S.N.L. Oltenia S.A. Tg-Jiu n domeniul exploatrii
crbunelui se ntinde pe o perioad de peste 50 de ani timp n care s-a realizat extracia unei
cantiti de 780 milioane tone lignit.27
Activitatea de extracie a lignitului n cadrul S.N.L. Oltenia S.A. Tg-Jiu se desfoar pe
teritoriul a trei judee: Gorj, Mehedini i Vlcea, n 12 perimetre miniere din care 9 cariere i 3
mine subterane grupate n 5 uniti de producie, 2 baze de aprovizionare tehnico-material,
transport i prestri-servicii, o unitate de valorificare a activelor i un centru de recuperare i
perfecionare a forei de munc.28
Capitalul social este deinut n ntregime de statul roman reprezentat prin Ministerul Economiei
i Finanelor. Capacitatea de producie este de 18 milioane tone/an lignit energetic, din care 96%
n exploatri la zi i 4% n exploatri subterane, fiind determinat de dotarea tehnic, baza
material i condiiile tehnologice.29
Scopul S.N.L. Oltenia S.A. Tg-Jiueste acela de a asigura continuarea procesului de dezvoltare a
subunitilor viabile i de restructurare a subunitilor i a activitilor fr potenial de
dezvoltare i eficien economic, astfel nct s asigure pentru termocentralele care produc
energie termic un crbune energetic care s le menin competitive n raport cu productorii
care folosesc alte surse de energie, iar pentru complexurile energetice s asigure livrarea
crbunelui energetic la un pre comparabil cu cel realizat n carierele proprii i oricum mai mic
dect preul cantitilor suplimentare obinute prin dezvoltarea forat a produciei proprii.
Puncte tari
- Interes major al
managementului
firmei pentru redresarea
economic i
reabilitarea
managerial a acesteia;
- Existena unei piee
relative stabile conferit
de beneficiarii
tradiionali ai S.N.L.
Oltenia
- Modernizarea i
fiabilizarea
utilajelor i instalaiilor
- Stabilitatea
personalului;
- Structur pe vrst,
sexe, pregtire
profesional conform
profilului de activitate;
- Policalificarea
personalului
existent n cadrul S.N.L.
Oltenia;
- Capacitatea de
producie a
S.N.L.Oltenia asigur
crbunele energetic
necesar pentru
producia a 20% din
producia de energie
electric a rii, precum
i asigurarea cu agent
termic pentru oraele:
Arad, Timioara,
Oradea, Craiova,
Drobeta Turnu
Severin, RmnicuVlcea, Motru, Braov,
avnd posibilitatea de
modelare a capacitii
Puncte slabe
Oportuniti
- Neutilizarea sau
utilizarea
incipient a unor
sisteme de
management moderne:
managementul prin
proiecte, managementul
prin excepii, metode de
stimulare a creativitii;
- Durata recuperrii
creanelor prezint
valori mari, peste
nivelul considerat
normal pentru acest
Indicator.
- Deficiene semnalate
la unele produse legate
de aprovizionarea
neritmic i de calitate
ndoielnic;
- Existena unor
furnizori unici
pentru o serie de piese;
- Creterea vrstei medii
a personalului angajat n
cadrul societii,
creterea accentuat a
vrstei personalului
calificat pe utilajele de
excavare-haldare urmare
a concedierilor
collective efectuate n
ultimii ani i nefectuarea
de angajri directe de
personal.
Ameninri
- Posibilitatea
- Posibilitatea de
dezvoltrii regiunii
datorat integrrii
Romniei n
Uniunea European;
- Existena zcmintelor
de crbune n imediata
vecintate a
marilor consumatori
(Complexul Energetic
Rovinari, Complexul
Energetic Turceni,
Complexul Energetic
Craiova) sau altfel spus
amplasamentul firmei n
zona central a
beneficiarilor i confer
posibilitatea valorificrii
superioare a pieei
existente;
- Apariia unui curent de
modernizare a
managementului n
societatea romneasc;
- Apariia unor surse
suplimentare de
finanare a investiiilor
cu ajutorul fondurilor
nerambursabile
(fondurile structurale,
etc.)
- Diversificarea
ofertelor firmelor strine
pentru multiple forme de
colaborare: aliane
strategice, firme mixte,
contracte de leasing
etc.
migrare a personalului
specializat ctre
societi
concurente sau cu alt
specific din Uniunea
European ca urmare
a integrrii Romniei i
a liberalizrii migrrii
forei de munc;
- nsprirea legislaiei de
protecie a mediului, ce
pune sub semnul
ntrebrii existena n
viitor a societii;
- Instabilitatea
sistemului legislativ,
fiscal, bancar,
manifestat prin
frecvente schimbri ale
reglementrilor;
- Manifestarea unor
fenomene de birocraie
i corupie, care
genereaz un mediu de
afaceri neprietenos,
ndeprtnd
investitorii importani;
- Interesul sczut al
potenialilor parteneri de
afaceri datorat riscului
de ar i a imaginii
nefavorabile a Romniei
pe plan internaional;
- Dobnzile ridicate i
perioadele de graie
reduse pentru creditele
investiionale.
31
de producie n funcie
de consumul
potenialilor clieni.
S.N.L. Oltenia S.A. Tg-Jiu i propune s rmn leader naional n ceea ce privete extracia
lignitului pentru producerea energiei electrice i termice i s devin o firm competitiv i
cunoscut. Iar fundamentul dezvoltrii sale l constituie abordarea, dezvoltarea i valorificarea
complex a resurselor umane de care dispune, pe baza unei viziuni manageriale i economice
dinamice, implementat n mod profesionist. Se are n vedere realizarea unei culturi
organizaionale caracterizat prin motivare, creativitate, participare i eficacitate, care pune pe
primul plan obinerea de satisfacii att pentru clieni dar i pentru salariai, dezvoltarea spiritului
de echip i realizarea de performane economice durabile.
3.3. Identificarea i evaluarea riscurilor specifice S.N.L.Oltenia Tg-Jiu
Activitatea S.N.L.O, n condiiile economice existente este n mare msur dependent de
situaiile critice de ordin economic i politic care, n ultimul timp, i las tot mai abuziv
amprentele asupra activitii sale economico-financiare.
1) Riscul unor activitii de investiii insuficiente, deoarece, n prezent sunt necesare astfel de investiii
pentru mbuntirea situaiei companiei, resursele financiare proprii fiind reduse comparativ fata de
nivelul celor din exterior. Aceste investiii ar ajuta la modernizarea utilajelor existente i mrirea duratei
de folosin a acestora, precum i achiziionarea unora noi.
2) 4,4%din producia dat de S.N.L. Oltenia se realizeaz n subteran, ceea ce nseamn costuri
de producie al tonei de lignit mai mari dect ale agenilor economici concureni care extrag
lignit doar din activitatea de carier, astfel apare riscul c produsul s fie refuzat, i chiar
imaginea s i vnzrile sale vor avea de suferit. Acest fapt are ca i efect creterea costurilor de
producie al tonei de lignit, sau chiar nchiderea i conservarea unitilor neproductive.
3) Riscurile n gestionarea resurselor umane la S.N.L.Oltenia sunt caracterizate de necesitatea
desfurrii corespunztoare a activitii utiliznd fora de munc adecvat sub aspect cantitativ,
structural i calitativ. Materializarea riscului de migrare a personalului, al declanrii grevelor
sau conflictelor de munc, al apariiei accidentelor de munc, etc. are consecine nefavorabile
asupra volumului produciei obinute, asupra calitii produciei obinute, asupra modului de
respectare a contractelor ncheiate cu clienii, asupra performanelor ntreprinderii i imaginii
sale pe pia.
4)
Un risc reprezentativ companiei S.N.L.O, fiind o companie din industria extrativa, l
reprezint nsprirea legislaiei n ceea ce privete protecia mediului, lucru ce pune sub semnul
ntrebrii existenta n viitor a societii. Activitatea ntreprinderii poate conduce la modificarea
32
11)
Riscul epuizrii rezervelor n anumite perimetre, risc ce ar conduce la creterea
problemelor sociale determinate n special de ncetarea activitii. Baza material este constituit
din rezervele de lignit cantonate n perimetrele miniere concesionate care se cifreaz la cca. 178
milioane tone lignit energetic. Din punct de vedere teritorial administrativ rezervele sunt
repartizate astfel: Gorj-80%, Mehedini 10%, Vlcea 10%. Lignitul este un crbune inferior
utilizat ca i combustibil n cea mai mare parte pentru producerea energiei electrice i termice i
n mai mic msur pentru consumul casnic.Reducerea produciei generat de epuizarea
rezervelor ncepnd cu 2014 duce la creterea problemelor sociale prin dispariia locurilor de
munc aferente capacitilor ce vor fi nchise. 35
12)
Riscul de a se defectiona utilajele. Dotare tehnic a unitilor de producie din cadrul
S.N.L. Oltenia este alctuit din utilaje care n prezent nu se mai produc pe plan internaional,
meninerea lor n funciune i creterea performanelor realizndu-se doar prin modernizri. Din
cele 43 excavatoare cu rotor primul a fost pus n funciune n anul 1973, ultimele 6 fiind puse n
funciune n perioada 1990 2000. n perioada 2004 2006 au fost modernizate din 43 de
excavatoare doar 11 utilaje.
Programele de restructurare prevd continuarea procesului de modernizare a utilajelor dar n
acelai timp trebuie avut n vedere i atragerea unor surse de finanare n vederea achiziionri de
utilaje performante. 36
13)
Riscul ca piaa lignitului s scad i n acest fel nici produsul s nu fie comercializat la
standardele dorite. Lignitul este un crbune inferior utilizat ca i combustibil n cea mai mare
parte pentru producerea energiei electrice i termice i n mic msur pentru consumul casnic.
Nivelul preului de vnzare a lignitului practicat este sub rata inflaiei respectiv sub indicele de
cretere a preului energiei electrice.
Producia de energie electric pe lignit se realizeaz la nivelul costului mediu la nivel de ar,
fapt care demonstreaz competitivitatea lignitului n raport cu producia realizat pe hidrocarburi
n general. Capacitate de adaptare la cerere prin faptul c lignitul a asigurat depirea
momentelor de criz generate de secet, lipsa celorlalte resurse primare de energie sau datorat
creterii preurilor acestor resurse primare influenate de anumite evenimente ce s-au produs n
anumite perioade pe plan mondia, constituie un avantaj principal dar n acelai timp gestionarea
neraionala a acestor perioade poate da natere la situaii greu sau imposibil de remediat.37
34Regulament intern, Art. 4
35STRATEGIA DE EFICIENTIZARE I MENINERE A S.N.L. OLTENIA S.A. TG-JIU CA LEADER
NAIONAL N CEEA CE PRIVETE EXTRACIA LIGNITULUI, pp. 3 6
34
14)
Riscul de schimb valutar afecteaz ntr-un mod asemntor i rezultatele financiare ale
ntreprinderilor dintr-o ar, cnd ele i convertesc, n momentul decontrii, preul din contract,
exprimat n moneda naional, ntr-o valut strin.38
15)
Riscurile naturale pot s afecteze att direct ct i indirect aceast industrie. Calamitile
naturale cum ar fi cutremure, inundaii, alunecri de teren, pot afecta att fabricile, depozitele ct
i anumite puncte de vnzare. . Abaterile de la condiii meteorologice normale ar putea afecta
vnzrile.
Concluzii
n concluzie, riscul, nu este un eveniment izolat, el este practic fundamentul tuturor afacerilor
deoarece, lumea n care trim, lipsit de granie i puternic globalizat, determin transferul rapid
al riscurilor dintr-o ar n alta. Imunitate la riscuri nu exist i astfel gestiunea lor este extrem de
important. Managerii de risc, iau decizii riscante deoarece, viitorul nu este unic i perfect
predictibil".39
Analiza riscului la nivelul unei entiti economice este foarte important pentru
managementul ntreprinderii, deoarece sprijin managerii n procesul de adoptare a strategiei de
risc, i avertizeaz n legtur cu deteriorarea climatului de afaceri i reprezint suportul de baz
n adoptarea i implementarea unor strategii de intervenie n situaii critice.
Scopul managementului riscurilor ntr-o organizaie este acela de a ajuta nelegerea
riscurilor la care este expus o organizaie i la administrarea lor, astfel nct organizaia s i
ndeplineasc obiectivele propuse. Principalul avantaj al unui program de management al riscului
este eficiena economic, deoarece managerii contientizeaz riscurile la care este expus
organizaia i le administreaz corespunztor, astfel nct acestea s nu se ntmple sau s
minimalizeze pierderile.
Managementul riscului devine un proces de identificare, analiz i rspuns la riscurile poteniale
ale unei organizaii.
38Prunea, Petru, Riscul n activitatea economic. Ipostaze.Factori. Modaliti de reducere, Editura Economic,
Bucureti, 2003
39M. Crouhy, D. Galai, R. Mark, The essentials of risk management, USA, The Mc. Graw Hill Companies, pag.5
35
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38