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Systematic Risk
Bhatti Kiran
Burtea Dani
Burtea Andreea
Financial markets
Content
Introduction
What is systematic risk and it looks like
Definition of systematic risk
Definition of systemic risk
Systematic and Systemic risks
CAPM
Profitability and expected value
Conclusion
B
Bhatti Kiran
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INTRODUCTION
The paper aims to present, analyze, define and offer examples of systematic risk that affect
the present markets course. It tries to gather all the existent information connected to the up
mentioned topics in order to create a clear view upon the functions and implications in the
financial activities. Starting from the general definition, that can be founded in all the finance
related books and articles, the concept states that: "Systemic risk refers to the risk or probability
of breakdowns in an entire system, as opposed to breakdowns in individual parts or
components, and is evidenced by co-movements (correlation) among most or all the parts."
(GEORGE G. KAUFMAN AND KENNETH E. SCOTT-What Is Systemic Risk, and Do Bank Regulators
Retard or Contribute to It?), a concrete pattern will be established. Some important questions arise
when we talk about this subject: What systematic risk really is? How it can be measured and how it
affects the valuation system? What are the effects? How it can be measured? We wil try answer to
them in the following paper.
The structure of the project is made of topic that targets the questions already asked. All the
information is taken from scientific books, academic papers and articles but it will also present our view
and opinions on the subject. The examples used through the whole paper are from real life from
different market analysis but there are also some fictive examples marked by italic writing. The
importance of understanding systemic risk for maintaining financial stability is widely recognized,
however the progress in developing effective approaches is gradual and does not meet the emergency
of the task.
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attempts to provide solutions. Our understanding of systemic risk is evolving and the awareness
of data relevance is rising gradually; this challenge is reflected in the focus of major
international research initiatives. There is a consensus that the direct and indirect costs of a
systemic crisis are enormous as opposed to preventing it, and that without regulation the
externalities will not be prevented; but there is no consensus yet on the extent and detail of
regulation, and research expectations are to facilitate the regulatory process.
This type of risk has two main important characteristics: unpredictability and the lack
of capability to avoid it completely. Summing this up the remaining option to be used is to
temper it down by using a good asset allocation strategy or through hedging. It can be
interpreted as the overall aggregate risk that comes from things like: natural disasters, wars,
broad changes in government policies, macroeconomic changes and other events that cannot
be planned or avoided. Thinking of the chain-reaction or direct-causation failures flowing
through interconnected institutions, there are two lines of attack. Supervisors, as just noted,
can reduce the amount of loss in the initial failure by prompt closure rules. Private banks also
have many ways, such as careful monitoring and exposure ceilings, to protect themselves
against defaults by their counterparties, and it is important that regulation not undermine their
incentives to do so.
In finances and investment, systematic risk looks like this:
(BETA)
Beta sign represents the measurement of investment volatility in correlation with the market
volatility. There are 3 cases with different outcomes:
1) Beta > 1. The investment has more systematic risk than the market
2) Beta = 1. The investment has a systematic risk equal to the market
3) Beta < 1. The investment has less systematic risk than the market
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are unavoidable through diversification. While this risk type affects a wide range of securities,
unsystematic risk affects quite a particular group of securities or even an individual security.
Moreover, systematic risk can be reduced by just being hedged.
Systematic risk can be partially mitigated by asset allocation. Owning different asset classes
with low correlation can smooth portfolio volatility because asset classes react differently to
macroeconomic factors. When some asset categories (i.e. domestic equities, international
stocks, bonds, cash, etc.) are increasing others may be falling and vice versa.
To further reduce risk, asset allocation investment decisions should be based on valuation. I
want to adjust my asset allocation target according to valuations. I want to overweight those
asset classes that are bargains and own less or avoid investments which are overpriced. When
mitigating systematic risk within a diversified portfolio, cash may be the most important and
under appreciated asset category.
Example of systematic risk
To illustrate systematic risk, let us take the example of an individual investor who purchases
stock worth $10,000 I 10 biotechnology companies. If unexpected events lead to a appalling
setback and one or more companies face a drop in the stock price, the investor experiences a
loss. On the contrary, an investor purchasing stock worth $100,000 in a single biotechnology
company would experience ten times the loss from such an event.
Sources of systematic risk
Systematic risk results from political factors, economic crashes, and recessions, changes in
taxation, natural disasters, and foreign-investment policy. These risks are widespread as they
can affect any investment or any organization. The Great Recession provides a prime example
of systematic risk. Anyone who was invested in the market in 2008 saw the values of their
investments change because of this market-wide economic event, regardless of what types of
securities they held. The Great Recession affected different asset classes in different ways,
however, so investors with broader asset allocations were impacted less than those who held
nothing but stocks.
Identifying risk
Systematic risks are recognized by estimating and analyzing the statistical relationships
between the different asset portfolios of an organization through the use of techniques like
principal components analysis.
BREAKING DOWN 'Systematic Risk'
For example, putting some assets in bonds and other assets in stocks can mitigate systematic
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risk because an interest rate shift that makes bonds less valuable will tend to make stocks more
valuable, and vice versa, thus limiting the overall change in the portfolios value from
systematic changes. Interest rate changes, inflation, recessions and wars all represent sources
of systematic risk because they affect the entire market. Systematic risk underlies all other
investment risks.
If you want to know how much systematic risk a particular security, fund or portfolio has, you
can look at its beta, which measures how volatile that investment is compared to the overall
market. A beta of greater than 1 means the investment has more systematic risk than the
market, less than 1 means less systematic risk than the market, and equal to one means the
same systematic risk as the market.
Beta is a measure of the volatility, or systematic risk, of a security or a portfolio in comparison
to the market as a whole. In other words, beta gives a sense of a stock's market risk compared
to the greater market. Beta is also used to compare a stock's market risk to that of other stocks.
Beta is used in the capital asset pricing model (CAPM).
Beta is calculated using regression analysis, and you can think of beta as the tendency of a
security's returns to respond to swings in the market. A beta of 1 indicates that the security's
price will move with the market. A beta of less than 1 means that the security will be less
volatile than the market. A beta of greater than 1 indicates that the security's price will be more
volatile than the market. For example, if a stock's beta is 1.2, it's theoretically 20% more volatile
than the market.
Many utility stocks have a beta of less than 1. Conversely, most high-tech Nasdaq-based stocks
have a beta greater than 1, offering the possibility of a higher rate of return, but also posing
more risk.
Beta helps us to understand the concepts of passive and active risk. The graph below shows a
time series of returns (each data point labeled "+") for a particular portfolio R(p) versus the
market return R(m). The returns are cash-adjusted, so the point at which the x and y axes
intersect is the cash-equivalent return. Drawing a line of best fit through the data points allows
us to quantify the passive, or beta, risk and the active risk, which we refer to as alpha.
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The gradient of the line is its beta. For example, a gradient of 1.0 indicates that for every unit
increase of market return, the portfolio return also increases by one unit.
Systematic Risk
a) beta < 1 or equal to 1.0 It means there is less systematic risk in portfolio.
b) beta > 1.0 It means more systematic risk in portfolio.
When whole economic structure is weak, systematic risk happens. This weakness may be of
fiscal policy, monetary policy, international trading rules, war, recession of economy. All these
are major factors.
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Systemic Risk
Unsystematic risk, also known as "specific risk," "diversifiable risk" or "residual risk," is the type
of uncertainty that comes with the company or industry you invest in. Unsystematic risk can be
reduced through diversification. For example, news that is specific to a small number of stocks,
such as a sudden strike by the employees of a company you have shares in, is considered to be
unsystematic risk.
A risk that is carried by an entire class of assets and/or liabilities. Systemic risk may apply to a
certain country or industry, or to the entire global economy. It is impossible to reduce systemic
risk for the global economy (complete global shutdown is always theoretically possible), but
one may mitigate other forms of systemic risk by buying different kinds of securities and/or by
buying in different industries. For example, oil companies have the systemic risk that they will
drill up all the oil in the world; an investor may mitigate this risk by investing in both oil
companies and companies having nothing to do with oil. Systemic risk is also called systematic
risk or undiversifiable risk. Systemic risk means the risk of sink whole financial system due to
weakness of a single unit of the system. In real example, we see the systemic risk in financial
market. Subprime Mortgage Crisis! Yes, an event of providing large quantity of loans to home
holders became the trigger of financial crisis in USA.
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Brother's size and integration in the economy caused its collapse to result in a domino effect
that caused a major risk to the financial system in the U.S.
On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk inherent in the aggregate market that cannot be
solved by diversification. Some common sources of market risk are recessions, wars, interest
rates and others that cannot be avoided through a diversified portfolio. Though systematic risk
cannot be fixed with diversification, it can be hedged. Also, the risk that is specific to a firm or
industry and can be solved by diversification is called unsystematic or idiosyncratic risk.
Systematic and unsystematic risk
Some of the companies in your portfolio may experience unanticipated adverse conditions, like
an unannounced strike. This immediate adverse condition may be offset by unexpected good
fortune of other firms in your portfolio. However, stock prices and returns tend to move in
tandem, and not all variability can be eliminated through diversification.
It is preferable to divide a security's total risk into a portion that is peculiar to a specific firm and
can be diversified away (called unsystematic risk) and that portion that is market related and
nondiversifiable (called systematic risk):
Total risk = Unsystematic risk (diversifiable risk, firm-specific) + Systematic risk (nondiversifiable
risk, market-related)
Figure 1 indicates the reduction of total risk, as securities are added to a portfolio. The
remaining systematic risk is market related. The diversified portfolio will tend to move in
tandem with the market. Popular market indexes -- for example, Dow Jones Industrial Average
(DJIA), Standard & Poor's 500, NYSE, and AMEX -- are themselves diversified portfolios and will
tend to move in parallel.
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The idea is that variations in returns from one security will likely be canceled by complementary
variations in the returns of other securities in your portfolio. You are rewarded with a higher
expected return for holding market-related risks. The result of the CAPM is that a security's
return is related to the portion of risk that cannot be eliminated by portfolio combination.
CAPM provides a convenient measure of systematic risk. This measure is known as beta () and
gauges the tendency of a security's return to move in parallel with the overall market's return.
A good way to think of is as a measure of a security's volatility relative to the market's
volatility. If the stock has a beta of 1.0, it tends to rise and fall the same percentage as the
market (for example, Standard & Poor's 500).
Accordingly, = 1.0 indicates an average level of systematic risk. If beta is greater than 1.0, the
stock will change more than the market changes and will have a high level of systematic risk,
since there is greater sensitivity to market changes. A beta of less than 1.0 has a low level of
systematic risk and is less sensitive to market swings. The results determine the risk-expected
return tradeoff under the CAPM.
We know that RS = RF + Risk premium. Then the CAPM describes market behavior by
RS = RF + (RM RF)
This equation states that the expected return on a security is equal to the risk-free rate (RF) plus
a risk premium. The risk premium is times the return on the market (RM) minus the risk-free
rate. We can also restate the equation
RS RF = (RM RF)
which is equal to the risk premium for security S. The risk premium on a stock or portfolio varies
directly with the level of systematic risk, beta. The risk or expected return tradeoff with CAPM
is called the security market line (SML). The SML is pictured in Figure 2.
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FIGURE 2: SECURITY MARKET LINE. The risk premium on a stock or portfolio varies directly
with the level of systematic risk, beta. The security market line (SML) shows you the risk or
expected return tradeoff with CAPM.
One might pay the same amount for a safe investment as for an investment carrying more risk;
however, the riskier investment will, in theory, provide a higher return. This is the principle
behind the security market line . Diversification is a technique for reducing risk that relies on
the lack of a tight positive relationship among the returns of various types of assets. By
diversifying a portfolio of assets, an investor loses the chance to experience a return associated
with having invested solely in a single asset with the highest return. On the other hand, the
investor also avoids experiencing a return associated with having invested solely in the asset
with the lowest return -- sometimes even becoming a negative return. Thus, the role of
diversification is to narrow the range of possible outcomes.
Because of its high level of non-diversifiable risk, the market considers this stock risky. It is
priced to yield a high-expected return. In general, most companies with high total risk have high
beta, and companies with low total risk have low beta.
The most basic strategy for minimizing systematic risk is diversification. A well-diversified
portfolio will consist of different types of securities from different industries with varying
degrees of risk. The unsystematic risks will offset one another but some systematic risk will
always remain.
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Expected return
The CAPM correctly describes market behavior as the relevant measure of a security's risk as its
market-related or systematic risk as measured by . If a stock's return has a strong positive
relationship with the return on the market, a high beta, it will be priced to yield a high-expected
return. The market cares only about systematic risk.
Expected return with the CAPM:
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process. The model was introduced by a 1964 article by William F. Sharpe and others.
The CAPM assumes that the risk-return profile of a portfolio can be optimized. An optimal
portfolio displays the lowest possible level of risk for its level of return. Since each additional
asset introduced into a portfolio further diversifies the portfolio, the optimal portfolio must
make up every asset, with each asset value-weighted to achieve an optimized risk-return
portfolio.
'Capital Asset Pricing Model - CAPM' = A model that describes the relationship between risk and
expected return and that is used in the pricing of risky securities.
The CAPM says that the expected return of a security or a portfolio equals the rate on a riskfree security plus a risk premium. If this expected return does not meet or beat the required
return, then the investment should not be undertaken. The security market line plots the
results of the CAPM for all different risks (betas).
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Conclusion
Probability and Expected Value
The expected value or return of a portfolio is the sum of all the possible returns multiplied by
the probability of each possible return. One form of risk is the amount of deviation and the
probability of that deviation from the expected return.
Portfolio risk is reduced by mitigating systematic risk with asset allocation, and unsystematic
risk with diversification. Mitigation of systematic and unsystematic risk allows a portfolio
manager to put higher risk/reward assets in the portfolio without accepting additional risk. This
is called portfolio optimization.
In other words, a manager is willing to accept a given amount of risk. The total risk of the
portfolio is lowered through proper asset allocation and diversification. Now the manager can
add more aggressive investments to the portfolio and still maintain the given amount of risk he
is willing to accept.
Systematic and unsystematic risks can be partially mitigated with risk management solutions
such as asset allocation, diversification, and valuation timing. Used properly, a manager can
increase portfolio returns and/or reduce risk to optimize an investment portfolio.
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Volume Title: Quantifying Systemic Risk;Volume Author/Editor: Joseph G. Haubrich and Andrew
W. Lo,editors
Systemic Risk Identification, Modelling, Analysis, and Monitoring:An Integrated Approach
Antoaneta Sergueiva*University College London, Department of Computer Science,Financial
Computing and Analytics Group
What Is Systemic Risk, and Do Bank Regulators Retard or Contribute to It? GEORGE G.
KAUFMAN AND KENNETH E. SCOTT