Climate Outlook and Review January 2016 No 105 - Final 1

International Centre for
Applied Climate Sciences

(ICACS)
Climate Outlook and Review

Focus on sugar industry
requirements
Issued 1 January 2016
Roger C Stone
University of Southern Queensland | Document title
Overview
We are currently further progressing into the El Nio pattern.

The SOI phase for the end of December was classified as being a
Rapidly Falling phase.
The SOI to the end of December was close to minus 10.09 (-10.09) putting
this recent phase just within the rapidly falling category.
The SOI appears to currently be on a roller coaster ride with lower values
in one month moving to higher values the subsequent month
and then falling again in later months and so on.
At this stage, the current El Nio system is expected to persist
until about autumn 2016, suggesting a possible return to
higher rainfall from early winter onwards, 2016.
Rainfall probability values of exceeding the long term median are now
mostly between about 60% and 80% for much of Queensland, especially in
Western Queensland (see attached map).
For sugar regions, the SOI phase system output for the three months
January to March, 2016, suggests about 80% probability of exceeding
median rainfall north from about Tully and between St Lawrence and about
Sarina. Remaining districts have mostly about a 60% probability of
exceeding median rainfall for this period of the year.
For the longer term (eg February to April, 2016) the European ECMWF GCM
forecast system suggests approx. 30% probability of receiving median
rainfall for most of eastern Queensland/NNSW, especially sugar regions and
for eastern Australia generally, through to the end of March and also through
to the end of May, 2016.
The current SOI phase is classified as rapidly falling.
According to BoMs system and USQs analysis, the MJO is next due
to affect our longitudes approximately mid-February.
Average to above normal maximum and especially minimum temperature

probability values are indicated for most sugar regions as per figures 2/3
but mostly below normal minimum temperatures are forecast as per
figure 3.
University of Southern Queensland | International Centre for Applied Climate Sciences (ICACS)
| Climate Outlook and Short Review from Professor Roger Stone
Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland - probability of

exceeding the respective long-term median values overall for the total period
January to March 2016. Regions shaded grey have around normal probability values
while areas shaded blue and dark blue have above normal probability values. Yellow
areas have low probability values. Note that these values are relative to normal
rainfall at this particular period of year.
Figure 2: Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three month

period January to March 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of the
year. Regions shaded yellow have below normal maximum temperature probability
values likely due to increased cloud cover with this current three month pattern.
Figure 3: Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three month

period January to March 2016 being above the long-term median for this time of
the year. Regions shaded blue and dark grey have above normal probability values.
Regions shaded yellow have below normal overall probability values for minimum
temperatures.
Figure 4: Probability of radiation values, averaged over the three month period
January to March 2016 of being above the long-term median for this time of the
year. Regions shaded blue and dark grey have well above normal probability
values. Regions shaded yellow have below normal values.
Figure 5: Forecast rainfall probability values for Australia for the overall period January to
March 2016 (after Stone, Hammer and Marcussen, 1996). Regions shaded red, yellow
and light grey have low probability values for this period relative to this time of the year.
Regions shaded dark grey and dark blue have above normal probability values.
Figure 6: Monthly SOI values since January 2010 the most recent phase is rapidly
falling. The most recent 30-day average value, to 31 December 2015, is minus
10.09 (-10.09). The SOI has been mostly negative for over 20 months now.
Longer-term forecasts:
The ECMWF and POAMA models provide useful assessments of longer-term rainfall
probability values for sugar regions (and other agricultural regions).
The ECMWF example suggests very low rainfall probability values for the coming
March to May 2016 period for our regions.
Figure 7. Updated ECMWF forecast rainfall probability values for eastern Australia and the
region generally, for the March to May period, 2016. Lower rainfall probability values
(probability of exceeding the long-term median) are indicated by the yellow-beige colours
with the scale provided at the top of the diagram (Courtesy ECMWF, Reading, UK).
The United States Climate Prediction Center and the Bureau of Meteorology
CAWCR Centre provide useful forecasts of sea-surface temperatures in important
regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean that have relevance for longer-term rainfall
and temperature patterns over Australian sugar regions. An example of a
recent/current forecast of sea-surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region is
provided in Figure 8 below. This figure indicates well above normal sea-surface
temperatures likely to extend into the first half of 2016 but decreasing rapidly
through autumn 2016. Note that this is a particularly volatile time of the year and
forecasts can change rapidly from now through to about May.
Figure 8. Forecast of sea-surface temperature anomalies (how much they vary from normal) for
the central Equatorial Pacific Ocean for the period through to September, 2016. At this stage this
forecast shows a major shift towards much cooler sea-surface temperatures and the associated
demise of the El Nio pattern in the late southern hemisphere autumn of 2016. Courtesy US
Climate Prediction Center
Detailed rainfall probability values for selected locations.

Mossman January to March 2016
100% chance of exceeding 804mm
90%
1388mm
80%
1458mm
70%
1504mm
60%
1541mm
50%
1773mm
40%
1829mm
30%
1924mm
20%
1936mm
10%
1961mm
Max ever record this pattern at Mossman 1991mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mossman: 90%
Innisfail January to March 2016

90%
1596mm
80%
1608mm
70%
1737mm
60%
1773mm
50%
1878mm
40%
2175mm
30%
2271mm
20%
2450mm
10%
2483mm
Max ever record this pattern at Innisfail 3103mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Innisfail: 54%
Mareeba January to March 2016

90%
374mm
80%
443mm
70%
470mm
60%
545mm
50%
563mm
40%
728mm
30%
839mm
20%
941mm
10%
1066mm
Max ever record this pattern at Mareeba 1116mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Mareeba: 46%
10
Ingham January to March 2016

90%
756mm
80%
869mm
70%
1042mm
60%
1163mm
50%
1243mm
40%
1398mm
30%
1587mm
20%
1860mm
10%
2034mm
Max ever record this pattern at Ingham 2306mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Ingham: 46%
Ayr (BSC) January to March 2016

100% chance of exceeding
167mm
90%
268mm
80%
351mm
70%
427mm
60%
648mm
50%
759mm
40%
888mm
30%
928mm
20%
1135mm
10%
1308mm
Max ever recorded this pattern 1326mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 61%
11
Mackay Sugar January to March 2016

483mm
90%
594mm
80%
643mm
70%
713mm
60%
765mm
50%
887mm
40%
924mm
30%
1040mm
20%
1076mm
10%
1337mm

Bundaberg Sugar January to March 2016

181mm
90%
220mm
80%
264mm
70%
348mm
60%
368mm
50%
416mm
40%
481mm
30%
574mm
20%
630mm
10%
647mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median: 36% for this period.
12
Childers January to March 2016

90%
229mm
80%
281mm
70%
322mm
60%
349mm
50%
434mm
40%
513mm
30%
527mm
20%
667mm
10%
782mm
Max ever record this pattern at Childers 971mm

Probability of exceeding the long-term median at Childers: 53%
Condong (NSW) Sugar Mill January to March 2016

273mm
90%
291mm
80%
333mm
70%
399mm
60%
460mm
50%
532mm
40%
626mm
30%
712mm
20%
770mm
10%
896mm

13
Recent forecast maps

As these forecasts are issued for a three-month validity on a rolling monthly
basis it has been decided to provide a continuous reference to these forecasts, as
below:
Seasonal climate forecast valid

1 January to 31 March 2016

1 November 2015 to 31 January 2016

1 December 2015 to 29 February 2016

1 October to 31 December 2015
14
Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) appears to be largely responsible for this
recent burst of rain in many districts, especially the far north and northwest, and
would next be due in approx. mid-February, 2016. Please refer to the BoM
website (below) for updated information.
The information below also presents a one-stop shop (as requested through
sugar industry workshops) for such information to be available.
For updated climate information

Click on the following links:
For the MJO
For weekly SSTs
For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific
For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific
For ECMWF forecast products
For plume forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific
For a complete history of the SOI
The Long Paddock
Additional information on ENSO
15

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International Centre for

Applied Climate Sciences

Climate Outlook and Review

University of Southern Queensland | Document title

We are currently further progressing into the El Nio pattern.

The current SOI phase is classified as rapidly falling.

Average to above normal maximum and especially minimum temperature

Figure 1: Forecast rainfall probability values for Queensland - probability of

Figure 2: Probability of maximum temperatures averaged over the three month

Figure 3: Probability of minimum temperatures averaged over the three month

Detailed rainfall probability values for selected locations.

Max ever record this pattern at Mossman 1991mm

Innisfail January to March 2016

Max ever record this pattern at Innisfail 3103mm

Mareeba January to March 2016

Max ever record this pattern at Mareeba 1116mm

Ingham January to March 2016

Max ever record this pattern at Ingham 2306mm

Ayr (BSC) January to March 2016

Max ever recorded this pattern 1326mm

Mackay Sugar January to March 2016

Max ever recorded this pattern 1928mm

Bundaberg Sugar January to March 2016

Max ever recorded this pattern 656mm

Childers January to March 2016

Max ever record this pattern at Childers 971mm

Condong (NSW) Sugar Mill January to March 2016

Max ever recorded this pattern 1448mm

Recent forecast maps

Seasonal climate forecast valid

Seasonal climate forecast valid

Seasonal climate forecast valid

Seasonal climate forecast valid

Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO)

For updated climate information

For the MJO

For weekly SSTs

For easterly (and westerly) wind anomalies across the Pacific

For sub-surface temperatures across the Pacific

For ECMWF forecast products

For plume forecasts of SSTs in the central Pacific

For a complete history of the SOI

The Long Paddock

Additional information on ENSO

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