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POLITICAL LANDSCAPE FROZEN

CANADIANS CONTINUE TO OPPOSE BOTH THE AFGHANISTAN MISSION AND AN EXTENSION

[Ottawa – April 9, 2010] - Because of this week’s

relatively short data collection period (we did not
HIGHLIGHTS
survey on Good Friday or Easter Monday), our • National federal vote intention:
sample size is much smaller than usual. The ¤33.6% CPC
results show no significant changes from last ¤27.3% LPC
week. The political scene remains frozen, with no ¤15.9% NDP
party able to garner the support of more than a ¤11.7% Green
¤9.6% BQ
third of voters.
¤1.8% other

Since the issue of the war in Afghanistan was • Direction of government:

raised once again with the visit of Hillary Clinton, ¤ 47% right direction
we also tested attitudes to both the current ¤ 43% wrong direction
military mission and receptivity to an American ¤ 10% do not know/no response
request to extend participation beyond the
existing deadline for withdrawal. The survey • Mission in Afghanistan:
shows that the public no longer supports the ¤ 49% oppose
mission. This opposition to the existing mission ¤ 36% support
has been in place for some time, but it is highly ¤ 14% neither
divided across CPC supporters (who continue to
• Support for extending Canada’s
support) and other voters who decisively reject.
role in Afghanistan:
The levels of opposition are particularly high in ¤ 60% oppose
Quebec. ¤ 28% support
¤ 12% neither
In the case of the request from the Americans
that we extend our mission, the answer is no
different for Hillary Clinton than when we posed Please note that the methodology is provided at the
end of this document.
this as a hypothetical request from Barack
Obama. A clear majority of the Canadian public continue to reject this appeal.

The Prime Minister’s response to Hillary Clinton, which was unusually quick and clear, reflects a
shrewd understanding of the public opinion dynamics of this issue. While there has been some
oscillation and division over the original mission, Canadians have been remarkably clear and
unified each time we have asked about the issue of an extension.

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Top Line Results:

Federal vote intention

Q. If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for?

50

40
33.6

30 27.3

20 15.9
11.7
9.6
10
1.8
0
CPC LPC NDP GP BQ Other
Other

Weekly tracking of federal vote intention

50

40

30

20

10

Other
Line
0 6
2008
Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul- Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec- Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr-
Election
08 08 08 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 09 10 10 10 10
Results

Note: The data on federal vote intention are based on decided voters only.
Our survey also finds that 13.5% of Canadians are undecided/ineligible to vote.

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Decided voters; most recent data point March 31 – April 6 (n=797)

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Direction of government
Q. All things considered, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong
direction?

60 Wrong direction
Right direction

50

40

30

20
May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point March 31 – April 6 (n=half sample)

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Mission in Afghanistan
Q. Do you support or oppose Canadian military participation in Afghanistan?

100

80

60
49

40 36

20 14

0
Oppose Support Neither

Higher among:
Higher among:
BQ (75%), NDP (62%),
Alberta (50%), CPC
Quebec (62%), , GP
(48%), Men (45%)
(60%), Women (55%)

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; Jul. 8-14 (n=XXXX)

Tracking support for the Mission in Afghanistan (2001-2010)

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Oppose Neither Support

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; most recent data point March 31 – April 6 (n=909)

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Support for extending Canada’s role in Afghanistan
Q. Canada's military mission in Afghanistan is scheduled to last until July 2011. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton
recently suggested that Canada should extend it's role in Afghanistan. Do you oppose or support Canada extending
its mission in Afghanistan?

100

80

60
60

40
28

20 12

0
Oppose Support Neither

Higher among:
Higher among:
BQ (76%), NDP (75%),
Alberta (37%), CPC
Quebec (68%), Women
(36%), Men (35%)
(66%)

Copyright 2010. No reproduction without permission BASE: Canadians; Jul. 8-14 (n=XXXX)

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Methodology:

EKOS’ weekly tracking polls are conducted using Interactive Voice Recognition (IVR) technology,
which allows respondents to enter their preferences by punching the keypad on their phone,
rather than telling them to an operator.

In an effort to reduce the coverage bias of landline only RDD, we created a dual land-line/cell
phone RDD sampling frame for this research. As a result, we are able to reach those with both a
landline and cell phone, as well as cell phone only households and landline only households. This
dual frame yields a near perfect unweighted distribution on age group and gender, something
almost never seen with traditional landline RDD sample or interviewer-administered surveys.

The field dates for this survey are March 31 – April 6, 2010.1 In total, a random sample of 909
Canadians aged 18 and over responded to the survey (including a sub-sample of 797 decided
voters). The margin of error associated with the total sample is +/-3.3 percentage points, 19
times out of 20.

Please note that the margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided (i.e., error
margins for sub-groups such as region, sex, age, education). All the data have been statistically
weighted to ensure the samples composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada
according to Census data.

1
Please note that these dates are not inclusive of the weekends or holidays, as we do not survey on Saturday or Sunday, nor do we
survey on Good Friday or Easter Monday.

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