Dailymarkets Update

7 avril 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]
DailyMarkets Update
1 Daily Markets Update| SFM Finanz , S. Optyker, C. Guizelli +41.21.566.16.22 Mob: +41.79.202.19.58 & +41 79.673.64.61
Fundamental Outlook:
Commodity currencies remain strong while Euro & Pound are Weak
Markets continue to be dominated by strength in commodity currencies and weakness in European majors in general, with dollar stuck in the
middle mixed. FOMC minutes released overnight provided little inspiration. Forecasts of real economic activities remained largely unchanged
from previous meeting but policymakers were surprised by deceleration of inflation. At the same time, the Fed noted unemployment would be
undermining recovery. Policymakers also discussed about the use of the phrase 'extended period' in the meeting statement. It's mentioned in
the minutes that 'nearly all members judged that it was appropriate to reiterate the expectation that economic conditions - including low
levels of resource utilization, subdued inflation trends, and stable inflation expectations - were likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the
federal funds rate for an extended period, but one member believed that communicating such an expectation would create conditions that
could lead to financial imbalances'. The Fed also noted that 'the duration of the extended period prior to policy firming might last for quite
some time and could even increase if the economic outlook worsened appreciably or if trend inflation appeared to be declining further'. In
short, rate hike remains distant.
BoJ left rates unchanged at 0.1% by unanimous vote as widely expected. In the accompanying statement, the bank said that "Japan's economy
has been picking up mainly due to improvement in overseas economic conditions and to various policy measures, although there is not yet
sufficient momentum to support a self-sustaining recovery in domestic private demand." Meanwhile, "that it is a critical challenge for Japan’s
economy to overcome deflation and return to a sustainable growth path with price stability." Yen remains largely in range after the
announcement.
While we've talked about the weakness of Euro on Greece concern, the outlook of pound is not much better. Sterling remains pressured by
political uncertainty as survey showed that the May election which PM Brown called for could result in a minority, hung government which
could then limit UK's pace to reduce its national debt and deficit. Sterling was supported by the sharp fall in EUR/GBP and consolidates against
commodity currencies.
EURUSD
The Technical out look for the EUR/USD Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 1.3393
The bias in EUR/USD is cautiously on the downside for the moment. As said previously the break of 1.3383minor support have flip intraday
bias back to the downside for 1.3267. For now the upper band o the descending channel now at 1.3337(green line on the chart) may bring
some support. Further break there will target an objective between 1.3111/47, the 61.8% projection of 1.4578 to 1.3443 from 1.3815 at
1.3111 or the 150.0% projection of 1.5143 to 1.4217 from 1.4578 at 1.3147. On the upside as previously alleged we need a firm break of
1.3570 and confirm by a break of 1.3630/40, to indicate that the five wave sequence from 1.5143 is completed at 1.3267 and stronger rebound
should then be seen to 1.3815 and above.
Furthermore in an Elliott Wave point of view and I kept my count, the bigger picture,fall from 1.5143 is apparently developing into a five wave
impulse (1.4217, 1.4578, 1.3443, 1.3815,1.3267?). Current decline from 1.3815 might be the fifth wave and perhaps ended at 1.3267 and turn
EUR/USD into more consolidation. But after all, the medium term bearish outlook will remain unchanged even in case of a strong
rebound.Technically the EURO IS IN A BEAR TREND as far that 1.4217 is not broken up. We need to break 1.3383 to reinitiate the bear trend
and a clear break of the intermediate EW target at target1.3343/48 (50% projection of 1.4580-1.3585 measuring from 1.3840 and 1.4415 to
1.3532 measuring from 1.3789) will head to 1.3147/11.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.8223 has made an important top at 1.6039 in 2008. Subsequent price actions
are so far viewed as a correction only, in form of three waves. First wave has completed at 1.2329 while secondly should have completed at
1.5143. Fall from 1.5143, as the third wave of correction, is in progress and should extend to 1.1639 supports, and possibly further to 100%
projection of 1.6039 to 1.2329 from 1.5143. Nevertheless, we'd expect strong support from 61.8% retracement of 0.8223 to 1.6039 at 1.1209
to conclude the correction and bring another long term up trend.
USD/CHF:
The technical outlook for USD/CHF Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 1.0697
The Outlook is cautiously on the upside for 1.0750 cluster point. We need to close above the upper band of the descending channel, now at
1.0717, in light brown on the chart to confirm that choppy correction from 1.0897 is completed with three waves down to 1.0434. Further
break of 1.0750 will target the key resistance at 1.0809, on a breach of this last level will pave the way to 61.8% projection of 0.10131to 1.0898
from 1.0506 at 1.0911 next. On the down side, an another deep cannot be ruled out to 1.0547 support a decisive break of this level would
revive our bearishness for retest of 1.0506 minor support and a decisive break of 1.0491, again, would extend the fall from 1.0899 for a
stronger retracement of early up move to 1.0424 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1.0130 to 1.0899) first and to 100% projection of 1.0897 to
1.0506 from 1.0750 at 1.0359 next
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture is a bit mixed for the moment. Rebound from 0.9916 is so far in three wave
structure only and was limited by the upper band of the ascending channel (green line on the chart). Thus there is no confirmation of
bottoming yet. The break 1.0491raised the possibility that rise from 0.9916 has completed at 1.0897 already. We also note that we got a
beautiful inverted saucer pattern on the chart with a neckline at 1.0491. We'll stay neutral for the moment and pay attention again to 1.0491
level and to the 100% projection of 1.0897 to 1.0506 from 1.0750 at 1.0359next. Sustained break there will indicate that fall from 1.0897 is
developing into an impulse and the down trend from 1.2296 is still in progress for another low below 0.9916. On the upside, break of 1.0750
resistance will reaffirm the case that rise from 0.9916 is still in progress and is resuming long term rally from 0.9634 for another high above
1.2296.
EUR/CHF:
The technical outlook for EUR/CHF Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 1.4320
No Change, with last Thursday SNB intervention the EUR/CHF is freeze. The break of 1.4375, as mentioned before, indicate that a short term
bottom is in place now at 1.4143 and stronger recovery could be seen to 1.4375 first or to the medium term trend indicator at now at 1.4398
(red line on the chart) finally to 1.4465 before resuming the down trend. For the down side:We need to break again 1.4232 continues the
declineto 1.4123 and further fall should now be seen towards 1.4 psychological level first and target 1.3869 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the long term picture,the current decline in EUR/CHF should be resuming larger term down
trend from 1.6827. Sustained trading below 1.4135 (2008 low) has confirm this case and we are heading to the61.8% projection of 1.6368 to
1.4315 from 1.5138 at 1.3869. On the upside, break of 1.4557spike resistance is needed to be first signal of bottoming. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish.
In the long term picture, fall from 1.6827 should be resuming whole down trend from 1993 high of 1.8234. We'd expect such down trend to
extend towards 100% projection of 1.8234 to 1.4391 from 1.6827 at 1.2984 in the longer run.
GBP/USD:
The technical outlook for GBP/USD Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 1.5246
GBP/USD get support from the lower band of the small descending channel now at 1.5159, light brown line on the chart, and recovered
strongly. The development dampened the view that rise from 1.4798 is completed and turns bias neutral. Nevertheless, while another rise
cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 38.2% retracement of 1.6456 to 1.4783 at 1.5422 to conclude the rise from 1.4798 as
three waves consolidation from 1.4783 and bring down trend resumption. Below 1.5159 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the
downside for retesting 1.5042 minor support first and will target 1.4783 low. A break o this last level will confirm that whole decline from
1.6456 has resumed for 1.4364/37 (200% projection of 1.6875 to 1.5829 from 1.6456 at 1.4364 or 61.8% projection from 1.6456 to 1.4783
from 1.5381 at 1.4337and 76.4% retracement from 1.3500 to 1.6875 at 1.4337).
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, there is no change, we're holding on the bearish view that medium term
rebound from 1.3503, which is treated as a correction to down trend from 2.1161, has completed at 1.7043 already. Fall from there is
tentatively treated as resumption of the down trend from 2.1161 and should target a new low below 1.3503. On the upside, break of 1.5815
resistance is needed to invalidate this view.Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the
multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (1985 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in
an early stage of a long term down trend. Rebound from 1.3503 should have completed and the whole fall from 2.1161 is likely resuming for
61.8% projection (2.1161 to 1.3503 from 1.7043) at 1.2310 next.
AUD/USD:
The technical outlook for AUD/USD Wednesday, April the 7th, level 0.9272
The AUD/USD is finally building up upside momentum again and surged through the lower band of the ascending channel now at 0.9263
(green line on the chart) have confirmed rally resumption. Further rise should now be seen to 0.9300 first and the AUD may retest the 0.9404
high next. On the downside, note that break of 0.9163 support will indicate that a short term top is formed and bring deeper correction 0.9124
first and followed by 0.9105 next. A breach of this last level will bring 0.9063/65 supports and may bring another rise. However, note that
break of 0.9063will mix up the outlook and turn focus back to 0.9000 support instead.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture: The correction from 0.9404 has completed with three waves down to 0.8577.
In other words, whole rally from 0.6008 might be set to resume for another high above 0.9404. If we treat the rise from 0.8577 as the fifth
wave in the rise from 0.6008 with equal length as the first wave from 0.6008 to 0.7267, upside target will be 0.9836, which is close to 2008
high of 0.9849. On the downside, break of 0.8802 supports is needed to be the first signal to revive the case that AUD/USD has already topped
out. Otherwise, we'll remain cautiously bullish in AUD/USD.
In the longer term picture, long term correction from 0.9849 has likely completed at 0.6008 already, after being supported slightly above
76.4% retracement of 0.4773 (01 low) to 0.9849 (08 high). Rise from 0.6008 is possibly developing into a new uptrend which will extend the
long term rise from 0.4773. We'll continue to favor the long term bullish case as long as 0.7702 cluster support holds and expect an eventual
break of 0.9849 high. However, a break of 0.7702 support will firstly argue that whole rise from 0.6008 has completed. Secondly this will open
up the case that AUD/USD is in phase of a long term consolidation and will gyrate in the large range of 0.6008/0.9849 for some time.
USD/JPY
The technical outlook for USD/JPY Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 93.91
The USD/JPY's consolidation from 94.68 is still in progress and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Deeper pull back could be seen
to the short term trend indicator now at 93.44, light blue line on the chart, but downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 89.83
to 94.68 at 92.82 and bring rally resumption. On the upside, break of 94.68 will target 100% projection of 84.81 to 93.74 from 88.13 at 97.06.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the break of 93.78 high affirms the bullish case and that whole down trend
from 124.13 has completed at 84.81 already. Stronger rally should now be seen to 101.43/65 medium term resistance zone for confirmation.
On the downside, break of 88.13 support is needed to indicate that rebound from 84.81 is finished. Otherwise, outlook will now remain bullish.
EUR/JPY
The technical outlook for EUR/JPY Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 125.67
As said before a temporary top is in place at 127.88 and pull back from there is still in progress. Intraday bias is mildly on the downside for
deeper fall. Nevertheless, note that break of 121.05 support is needed to confirm that rise from 119.64 has completed. Otherwise, another rally
is still in favor after pull back. Above 126.57 minor resistance will flip intraday bias back to the upside and break of 127.88 will bring rally
resumption towards 161.8% projection of 119.64 to 125.19 from 121.05 at 130.03 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, the strong break of 126.88 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 138.47 to
119.64 at 126.83) indicates that choppy fall from 139.21 has likely completed at 119.64 already. The corrective structure in turns argue that
whole rally from 2009 low of 112.10 is still in progress. Sustained trading above 134.36 resistance will further affirm this case and pave the
way to a new high above 139.21. On the downside, break of 121.05 support is needed to revive the case that EUR/JPY has topped out in
medium term. Otherwise, the outlook remain bullish.
GBP/JPY
The technical outlook for GBP/JPY Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 143.51
As said previously a temporary top is in place at 144.71 and consolidations from there is still in progress. Deeper retreat could be seen to
141.06 support and below. But still, break of 139.36 support is needed to confirm that rise from 132.13 is completed. Otherwise, another rally
would be in favor after the pull back. Above 144.71 will target 161.8% projection of 132.13 to 139.33 from 134.53 at 146.17 next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, with the break of 143.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 150.68
to 132.13 at 143.59) has dampened the bearish view and argue that medium term fall from 164.05 is completed with three waves down to
132.13 already. The corrective structure in turn argue that whole rise from 2009 low of 118.18 is still in progress. Sustained trading above
61.8% retracement of 163.05 to 132.13 at 151.23 will affirm this case and set the stage for another high above 163.05. On the downside, break
of 134.53 support is now needed to revive that case that GBP/JPY has topped out at 163.05.
USD/CAD
The technical outlook for USD/CAD Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 0.9990
The bias in USD/CAD remains on the downside for the moment but with a little loss of momentum for the downside, but further fall should be
seen to the 61.8% projection of 1.0679 to 1.0062 from 1.0302 at 0.9921. On the upside, above 1.0047 minor resistance will turn intraday bias
neutral and bring consolidations. But break of 1.0302 resistance is needed to signal that USD/CAD has bottomed. Otherwise, outlook will
remain bearish and we'd expect more decline going forward.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, medium term decline from 1.3063 is still in progress. It's unclear whether such fall is resuming
the long term down trend from 1.6196 (2002 high) or it is a part of a consolidation pattern that started at 0.9056 (2007 low). In either case, fall
from 1.3063 is now expected to continue towards 100% projection of 1.3063 to 1.0784 from 1.1723 at 0.9444 next. On the upside, break of
1.0779 resistance is needed to be the first signal that fall from 1.3063 is finished. Otherwise, the Outlook for the USD/CAD remains bearish and
we will stay bearish as long as 1.0779 resistances held.
GOLD
The technical outlook for GOLD: Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 1133.6
Gold's rise from 1084.8 is still in progress and with the break of 1133.3 resistance affirms that case that consolidation from 1131.5 is finished
at 1084.8 already. But a temporary top may be in place at 1134.3 and bias is turned neutral. Some retreat might be seen in Gold but downside
should be contained above 1120.5 support and bring another rise. As noted before, rally from 1044.5 is still in progress and above 1134.3
should bring retest of 1145.8 resistance next.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, the bigger picture, price actions from 1227.5 are treated as correction to rise from 931.3 only, no
doubt. The lack of impulsive structure of rise from 1044.5 argues it's possibly part of consolidation from 1227.5, rather than resumption of the
long term up trend. Above 1145.8 will bring retest of 1227.5 high but upside will likely be limited there and bring at least one more fall before
the consolidation concludes. On the downside, below 1084.8 support will shift favors to the case that correction from 1227.5 is developing into
a three wave move with another low below 1044.5.
CrudeOIL
The technical outlook for OIL Wednesday, April the 7th, level 86.42
Crude oil jumped to as high as 86.85 and is just shy of 61.8% projection of 69.50 to 83.16 from 78.56 at 86.92, but crude oil is consolidating
below this level now . Intraday bias remains on the upside for the moment and strong rally should be seen to 90 psychological level after
taking out 86.92. On the downside, below 85.06 minor support will turn bias neutral and bring consolidations first before staging another
rally.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, in the bigger picture, the strong break of 83.95 high confirmed that medium term rally from 33.2
has resumed. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that it's the second wave of the whole correction that started in 2008 at 147.27.
Hence, we'd continue to expect strong resistance near to 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24 to bring reversal. On the downside, below
78.56 support will be the first signal of topping and will turn focus back to 69.50 support for confirmation.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 1998 low
of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're
still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between
76.77/90.24 Fibonacci resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
DOW JONES INDU.Future June 2010
The technical outlook for DJI: Wednesday, April the 7th, 2010, level 10888.9
The Dow jones is trading above10847 minor support and the outlook is positive and may bring a rally to the next EW target at 10973. But
seems to lose some momentum or the upside now and the lower band of the ascending channel in green on the chart now at 10859.9 may bring
support and the correction may go to the short term trend indicator in light blue on the chart now at 10806 and a move below this level will
tend to 10716 support but 10624may hold. As far as 10600held now, I remain bullish for the DOW but with a stop now below 10595.
Furthermore in an Elliott wave point of view, thecount suggests that the bear market ended in Mar 09.The anticipated 50% retracement rally
was actually the start of a new 70-80 year super cycle bull market. The three waves up, thus far, are only Major waves 1-2-3 of Primary wave I
of Cycle wave I of this bull market.Should the current downtrend conclude with alternation with the Jun/July downtrend, and hold the 10%
correction, it will be labeled Major wave 4 with now up Major wave 5.With the break up10723: the move from 10723.4 to 9789.9 is wave 4 of I
and the current wave is wave 5 of I: because now we may count 5 waves up on this rally and we get a first target at10973 and perhaps higher.
Remember that this Wave I is the the start of a super bullish super cycle of 50-70 years and will be followed by a wave II in correction that may
be profound.
Economic Calendar
Time GMTsourceDescriptionForecastPrevious
Wednesday, Apr 7, 2010
6:30 AUS Foreign Reserves n/a 44.3B
07:55 GE PMI Services n/a 54.7
08:00 EU PMI Composite n/a 55.5
08:30 UK PMI Services n/a 58.4
9:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) n/a -2.1%
10:00 GE Factory Orders YoY (nsa) n/a 19.6%
12:30 CA Building Permits MoM 1.7% -4.9%
14:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Ind 53.0 51.9
19:00 US Consumer Credit $1.3B $5.0B
23:50 JPN Current Account Total n/a Yen899.8B
Thursday, Apr 8, 2010
01:30 AUS Employment Change n/a 0.4K
01:30 AUS Full Time Employment Change n/a 11.4K
04:00 JPN Bankruptcies (YoY) n/a -17.3%
5:00 JPN BOJ Monthly Report n/a n/a
06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a 217.4%
08:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) n/a -1.5%
09:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) n/a -1.4%
10:00 GE Industrial Prod.YoY (nsawda) n/a 2.2%
11:00 UK BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 0.50% 0.50%
11:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates n/a 1.00%
12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a
12:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a
14:30 US ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY n/a 3.7%
23:30 AUS AiGPerf of Construction Index n/a 52.8
Friday, Apr 9, 2010
06:00 GE Trade Balance n/a 8.0B
08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) n/a 2.9%
11:00 CA Net Change in Employment 25.0K 20.9K
14:00 US Wholesale Inventories 0.4% -0.2%
The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) covering the subject
Currencies, Futures, Commodities & Securities. No part of said person's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific
recommendations or views contained in this research report. In addition, said analyst has not received
compensation from any subject company in the last 12 months.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
International securities involve additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and
possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets.
Small-cap stocks generally involve greater risks. Dividends are not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Past performance may
not be indicative of future results.
.
Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of mutual funds carefully
before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about mutual funds. The prospectus is
available from your financial advisor and should be read carefully before investing.
For clients in the United Kingdom:
For clients of SFM Finanz.

This report is for distribution only to persons who fall within Articles 19 or Article 49(2) of the Financial
Services and Markets Act (Financial Promotion) Order 2000 as investment professionals and may not be
distributed to, or relied upon, by any other person.
Proprietary Rights Notice: By accepting a copy of this report, you acknowledge and agree as follows:
This report is provided to clients of SFM Finanz (SFM) only for your personal, noncommercial use.
Except as expressly authorized by SFM, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish,
broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed,
electronic or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of SFM. You also agree not to use
the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose.Th is i s RJ Ac li en t re l eas a bl e res ea rch
This report and its contents are the property of SFM and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret or other
intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec.501 etseq,
provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement

Dailymarkets Update

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Descrizione originale:

Titolo originale

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Dailymarkets Update

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

7 avril 2010 [DAILY MARKETS UPDATE]

DOW JONES INDU.Future June 2010

Wednesday, Apr 7, 2010

6:30 AUS Foreign Reserves n/a 44.3B

07:55 GE PMI Services n/a 54.7

08:00 EU PMI Composite n/a 55.5

08:30 UK PMI Services n/a 58.4

9:00 EU Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (YoY) n/a -2.1%

10:00 GE Factory Orders YoY (nsa) n/a 19.6%

12:30 CA Building Permits MoM 1.7% -4.9%

14:00 CA Ivey Purchasing Managers Ind 53.0 51.9

19:00 US Consumer Credit $1.3B $5.0B

23:50 JPN Current Account Total n/a Yen899.8B

Thursday, Apr 8, 2010

01:30 AUS Employment Change n/a 0.4K

01:30 AUS Full Time Employment Change n/a 11.4K

04:00 JPN Bankruptcies (YoY) n/a -17.3%

5:00 JPN BOJ Monthly Report n/a n/a

06:00 JPN Machine Tool Orders (YoY) n/a 217.4%

08:30 UK Industrial Production (YoY) n/a -1.5%

09:00 EU Euro-Zone Retail Sales (YoY) n/a -1.4%

10:00 GE Industrial Prod.YoY (nsawda) n/a 2.2%

11:00 UK BOE ANNOUNCES RATES 0.50% 0.50%

11:45 EU ECB Announces Interest Rates n/a 1.00%

12:30 US Initial Jobless Claims n/a n/a

12:30 US Continuing Claims n/a n/a

14:30 US ICSC Chain Store Sales YoY n/a 3.7%

23:30 AUS AiGPerf of Construction Index n/a 52.8

Friday, Apr 9, 2010

06:00 GE Trade Balance n/a 8.0B

08:30 UK PPI Output Core NSA (YoY) n/a 2.9%

11:00 CA Net Change in Employment 25.0K 20.9K

14:00 US Wholesale Inventories 0.4% -0.2%

For clients in the United Kingdom:

For clients of SFM Finanz.

Potrebbero piacerti anche