Sei sulla pagina 1di 79

20th Annual Santander Latin American Conference

January, 2016

FIBRIA APP WITH THIS PRESENTATION IS AVAILABLE FOR DOWNLOAD AT APPLE STORE AND GOOGLE PLAY.

Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation may include statements which


constitute forward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S.
Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange
Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of
risk and uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other
forecasts, and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered
reasonable by the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or
may not be possible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations
disclosed in this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned
that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance
and involve risks and uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from
those in the forward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not
limited to, the risks of international business and other risks referred to in the
companys filings with the CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and
specifically disclaims any obligation to update any forward-looking statements, which
speak only for the date on which they are made.

1
2 Pulp and Paper Market
3 Financial and Operational Highlights
4
Company Overview

Final Remarks

Agenda

Company Overview
4

A Winning Player
Superior Asset Combination

Belmonte
Veracel
Caravelas
Portocel
Aracruz

Main Figures 3Q15 LTM

Pulp capacity

million tons

5.300

Net revenues

US$ billion

3.000

Total Forest Base(1)

thousand hectares

967

Planted area(1)

thousand hectares

539

US$ billion

2.411

1.58

Net Debt
Net Debt/EBITDA (in Dollars)(2)

Trs Lagoas
Jacare
Santos

Port Terminal

Pulp Unit

Source: Fibria
(1) Including 50% of Veracel, excluding forest partnership areas and forest bases linked to the sales of Losango and forest assets in Southern Bahia State.
(2) For covenants purposes, the Net Debt/EBITDA ratio is calculated in Dollars.

Fibrias Units Industrial Capacity

* Veracel is a joint venture between Fibria (50%) and Stora Enso (50%) and the total capacity is 1,120 thousand ton/year

Fibrias Commercial Strategy


Sales Mix by End Use - Fibria

Highlights

End Use - 3Q15

Region - 3Q15
N.
America
25%

Tissue
50%

Europe
42%

Printing &
Writing

36%
Asia
25%

Specialties

LatAm
8%

14%

Net Revenues by Region - Fibria

Worldwide presence

Strong global customer base

Long-term relationships

Focus on customers with stable business

Customized pulp products and services

Sound forestry and industrial R&D

Focus on less volatile end-use markets such as tissue

Efficient logistics set up

9%

9%

8%

Low dependence on volatile markets such as China

29%

21%
20% 22% 25%
25% 26% 26% 27% 24% 23% 26% 26% 25%
26%

Low credit risk

26% 26%

100% certified pulp (FSC and PEFC/Cerflor)

18%

10%

9%

10%

30% 22%

8%

9%

29%

8%

31% 31%

10%

9%

10% 10% 10%

9%

19% 23% 27% 27% 17% 24% 25%

47% 42% 42%


46% 42%
44% 44% 42%
43% 43%
39% 40%
37%
35% 36%

1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
Europe

North America

Asia

Other

Pulp Supply Agreement: Puma Project


Puma Project
Pulp volumes:
Minimum of 900 kt of hardwood for the first 4 years
75% of 900 kt for the fifth year (phase out 1)
50% of 900 kt for the sixth year (phase out 2)

Selling price based on the average net price charged by


Fibria at the Port of Paranagu (FOB Paranagu)
Sales destination: Globally, except for South America
Operational startup: Mar/2016
Agreement benefits:
Logistics and commercial
structure synergies;

Logistics and commercial


optimization and synergies;

Ensure sales volumes;

Support customers growth and


enhance customers needs;

Ensure pulp market access with


Klabin brand.

Potential development of new customers.

Mutual value creation, with better servicing for both Companies customers base
8

Shareholder Structure and Corporate Governance

Votorantim
Industrial S.A. (1)

BNDES
Participaes (1)

Free
Float (2)

29.42%

29.08%

41.50%

General
Meeting
Fiscal
Council
Board of
Directors

Finance
Committee

Statutory
Audit
Committee

Personnel
and
Remuneratio
n Committee

Sustainability
Committee

Innovation
Committee

30%
independent
members

100%
independent
members

50%
independent
members

45%
independent
members

Listed on Novo Mercado,


highest level at BM&FBovespa:

Only 1 class of shares 100% voting rights

100% tag along rights (Brazilian corporate law


establishes 80%)

Policies approved
by the Board of Directors:

Board of Directors with minimum 20% independent

members

Financial Statements in International Standards IFRS

Adoption of Arbitration Chamber

SEC Registered ADR Level III program

20% independent
members
Role of CEO and
chairman is split

Indebtedness and Liquidity


Market Risk Management
Risk Management
Corporate Governance
Related Parties Transactions
Anti-Corruption
Information Disclosure
Securities Trading
Antitrust
Genetically Modified Eucalyptus
Dividend Policy
NEW

(1) Controlling group (2) Free Float 41.44% + Treasury 0.06%

Approval of Dividend Policy


Commitment to Corporate Governance best practices.

Proposed dividends based on cash generation, taking into consideration


the companys strategic planning and in line with its policies, notably the
Indebtness and Risk Management policies.
Preserving Investment Grade.

Extraordinary dividend if Policy criteria are met.

10

Pulp and Paper Market


11

The better than expected scenario has become a reality again in


2015
BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES
EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2015 IN DEC14
Suzano Maranho

750

Portucel Cacia

30

Old Town (Expera)

85

Sappi Cloquet
April Rizhao
Ence Huelva
Possible closures*
Net
BEKP demand growth**

500
200

Eldorado

200

Eldorado

265

CMPC Guaiba II

750

CMPC Guaiba II

750

Montes del Plata


Oji Nantong

265

Oji Nantong

400

Suzano Maranho

400

Montes del Plata

YEAR-TO-DATE SCENARIO IN 2015

Portucel Cacia

30

Old Town (Expera)

40
40

Ence Navia

115

115

Sappi Cloquet

-65

April Rizhao

-315

Ence Huelva

-400 to -800

Unexpected Downtimes
1,415 to 1,815

1095

*Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr)


**Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp December 2014

-190
-315
-385

Indonesia, China,
Uruguay and Brazil

Net

1450

Estimated BEKP demand growth**

1500

**Source: Fibria estimates based on PPPC Market Pulp World 20 (BEKP


9M15: + 1.105 kt )

12

and so has been the price scenario


BHKP Delivered to Europe (USD/t)
804

808*
784*

781
750

738

735

726

721
709

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

Consultants average at the end previous year

4Q15

Annual 2015

Realized PIX/FOEX price

* Average until 12/21/15


Consultants: Hawkins Wright, RISI and Brian McClay (published in the end 2014 for 2015 prices)

13

But this time, demand has been the good surprise


BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES
EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2015 IN DEC14
Suzano Maranho

750

Portucel Cacia

30

Old Town (Expera)

85

Sappi Cloquet
April Rizhao
Ence Huelva
Possible closures*
Net
BEKP demand growth**

500
200

Eldorado

200

Eldorado

265

CMPC Guaiba II

750

CMPC Guaiba II

750

Montes del Plata


Oji Nantong

265

Oji Nantong

400

Suzano Maranho

400

Montes del Plata

YEAR-TO-DATE SCENARIO IN 2015

Portucel Cacia

30

Old Town (Expera)

40
40

Ence Navia

115

115

Sappi Cloquet

-65

April Rizhao

-315

Ence Huelva

-400 to -800

Unexpected Downtimes
1,415 to 1,815

1,095

*Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr)


**Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp December 2014

-190
-315
-385

Indonesia, China,
Uruguay and Brazil

Net

1,450

Estimated BEKP demand growth**

1,500

**Source: Fibria estimates based on PPPC Market Pulp World 20 (BEKP


9M15: + 1,105 kt )

14

Better worldwide macroeconomics are the key drivers But the


special focus is on Europe
Real GDP % Annual Growth

7,7 7,7

3,6
3,4 3,3 3,4
3,1

0,9

6,8

6,3

2,8
2,4 2,6

2,2

1,5 1,6

7,3

1,5

-0,3
-0,8
World

Euro Area
2012

USA
2013

2014

2015

China

2016

Source: International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2015

15

But the special focus is on Europe


Hardwood and Eucalyptus Shipments (000 t and % annual growth and YTD)

400

6.0%

3.3%

3.7%

5.0%

200

0
-0.3%

-0.8%

-0.8%

-0.6%

-200
2012

2013

2014

BHKP

YTD 2015*

BEKP

*YTD: 9M15 vs. 9M14


Source: PPPC World 20

16

So, what can we expect for 2016?


BHKP CAPACITY CHANGES
EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2016 IN NOV15

Altri Celbi

Woodland

Altri Celbi

30

Old Town (Expera)

-40
-90

-55

Verso Wickliffe

APRIL Kerinci

-120

APRIL Kerinci
Possible closures*
385 to 785

Net
BEKP demand growth**

930

1500

*Based on annual closures average (400,000 to 800,000 t/yr)


**Source: PPPC Outlook for Eucalyptus Market Pulp May 2015 (930kt) and
Fibrias estimates

-40
-90

-55

-400 to -800

30

Woodland

Verso Wickliffe

Possible closures*

660

Klabin

660

Klabin

800

CMPC Guaiba II

800

CMPC Guaiba II

Old Town (Expera)

FIBRIAS EXPECTED SCENARIO FOR 2016

Net
BEKP demand growth**

-120
-200
985
1500

Positive Supply/Demand Balance!


17

Global Market BEKP Demand


Shipments of Eucalyptus Pulp
2014 vs. 2013(1)

9M2015 vs. 9M2014(2)

11%
9%

1,734 kt

20%
6%
5%

717 kt

386 kt

1,106 kt

13%

19%

537 kt

6%

80 kt

92 kt

Total

(1)

North
America

Western
Europe

China

Others

Source: PPPC World 20 December/2014


January/2015

Total
(2)

North
America

5%

593 kt

247 kt

Western
Europe

5%
186 kt

China

Others

Source: PPPC World 20 Sep/2015

Paper Capacity increase in China


2014

2015

Total

FORECAST

REALIZED

PREVIOUS
FORECAST

LATEST
FORECAST

PREVIOUS

LATEST

Woodfree

256

256

760

760

1,016

1,016

Tissue

1,390

1,278

727

1,365

2,117

2,643

Cartonboard

2,100

1,326

380

730

2,480

2,056

Total

3,746

2,860

1,867

2,855

5,613

5,715

Source: Fibria and Independent Consultants

18

Nominal Chinese GDP vs. Eucalyptus Shipments to China


(Sept-09 = base 100)
250

203

200

150

100

76
50

China GDP

Eucalyptus Shipments

Source: Bloomberg and PPPC.

19

Commodities Differentiation
China GDP breakdown
8%

4%

4%

3%

3%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

2%

44%

47%

48%

48%

48%

48%

48%

46%

47%

45%

45%

49%

49%

48%

49%

49%

50%

50%

52%

51%

53%

53%

2008A

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Consumption

Investment

Net Exports

China commodity demand - basis 100


Corn

Soybeans

Wheat

Crude oil

Iron ore

Sugar

BHKP
248
201
194
172
152
124
115

100
2008A

2009A

2010A

2011A

2012A

2013A

2014A

2015E

2016E

2017E

2018E

Source: Ita Macroeconomic Department and PPPC Oct/15

20

Technical Age and Scale in the Market Pulp Industry


Further closures are expected due to lack of adequate investments in the industry
Hardwood (BHKP) Market Pulp
3.000

Softwood (BSKP) Market Pulp

PM Capacity, 1000 t/a

3.000

Weighted average
technical age 12.3 years

PM Capacity, 1000 t/a


Weighted average
technical age 21 years

STRONG

2.500

STRONG

2.500
Aracruz

2.000

1.500

2.000

Weighted average
capacity 1,277,000 t/a

Trs Lagoas

1.500

Jacare

1.000

Veracel

1.000
Weighted average
capacity 527,000 t/a

Ence
Huelva

500

500

Old
Town

30

WEAK

20

10

0
30

WEAK

25

Technical Age, years


North American Pulp Mills

Other Pulp Mills

Closures

20
15
10
Technical Age, years

Grade Switch

On & Off

More than 7.7 million tons of capacity above 25 years and with annual capacity below 500,000 t/y.

21

Capacity closures DO happen

Closures of Hardwood Capacity Worldwide


(000 ton)
-85

-105
-315
-540

-445

-500

-580

-910
-1,085
-1,180
-1,260
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016-2017 E (1)

Source: PPPC and Fibria


(1)

As of January 2016 | 2016: -40kt Old Town (USA), -90kt Woodland (USA), -55kt Verso Wickliffe (USA), -120 April Kerinci (Indonesia) | 2017: -275kt Arauco Valdivia (Chile)

22

Gross capacity addition should not be counted as the only factor


influencing pulp price volatility.(1)
List Price bottoming at US$650/t in 2011 and US$724/t in 2014
APP South
Sumatra(2)

1.000

Horizonte II

900

1,6

Rizhao

Maranho

Trs
Lagoas

700
APP
Hainan

600
500

400

Santa F

1,4

Montes
del Plata Guaba II

Eldorado

Fray
Bentos
Mucuri
Veracel Nueva Aldea

Valdivia

1,8

1,2

Klabin

1,0
Chenming
Zhanjiang

Kerinci
PL3

Capacity (000 ton)

BHKP prices - CIF Europe (US$/ton)

800

2,0

0,8

APP Guangxi

300

0,6

Oji
Nantong

200

0,4

100

0,2

0,0
2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

(1) Source: Hawkins Wright , Poyry and Fibria Analysis. Pulp price estimates according to Hawkins Wright (July/15), Brian McClay (Sept./15) and RISI (May/15)
(2) Partially integrated production.

23

In the last 15 years, pulp volatility has been just 8%...why?

BHKP - FOEX Europe (base 100)

160

CPI (base 100)

120

80

40

Market price closer to producers marginal cost


The marginal cost producers are based in Europe and North America

Flattish industry cost curve


Higher flexibility to adjust supply side during imbalanced market
Lower dependency on Asian market (~25%) compared to hard commodities (70%+)
Market end users are linked to consumer goods, such as tissue
Incipient pulp price futures market and low liquidity
Source: Bloomberg January 5, 2016

Oct-15

May-15

Dec-14

Jul-14

Feb-14

Sep-13

Apr-13

Nov-12

Jun-12

Jan-12

Aug-11

Mar-11

Oct-10

May-10

Dec-09

Jul-09

Feb-09

Sep-08

Apr-08

Nov-07

Jun-07

Jan-07

Aug-06

Mar-06

Oct-05

May-05

Dec-04

Jul-04

Feb-04

Sep-03

Apr-03

Nov-02

Jun-02

Jan-02

Aug-01

Mar-01

Oct-00

May-00

Dec-99

Lowest volatility among commodities

100 = January 1, 2012


215

120

72
63

Iron Ore

Crude Oil

BHKP - FOEX Europe

Jan-16

Nov-15
Dec-15

Sep-15
Oct-15

Aug-15

Jun-15
Jul-15

Apr-15
May-15

Jan-15

Feb-15
Mar-15

Nov-14
Dec-14

Sep-14
Oct-14

Aug-14

Jun-14
Jul-14

Apr-14
May-14

Jan-14

Sugar

Feb-14
Mar-14

Nov-13
Dec-13

Sep-13
Oct-13

Aug-13

Jun-13
Jul-13

Apr-13
May-13

Jan-13

Soy Bean

Feb-13
Mar-13

Nov-12
Dec-12

Sep-12
Oct-12

Aug-12

Jun-12
Jul-12

Apr-12
May-12

Jan-12

36
31
Feb-12
Mar-12

225
215
205
195
185
175
165
155
145
135
125
115
105
95
85
75
65
55
45
35
25

Exchange Rate (R$/US$)

Low volatility of hardwood pulp price, even though


new capacities have come on stream during the period.
Source: Bloomberg January 5, 2016

25

The only commodity with lower volatility than FX

Historical Volatility of Commodities (US$)


35%

35%

34%
27%

26%

24%

24%

24%
16%

14%
6%

WTI
Crude Oil

Sugar

Nickel

Copper

Soy

Iron Ore

LME
Ibovespa
Metals

Cattle

FX

FOEX PIX
BHKP

Since 2009

26

Financial and Operational Highlights


27

Each 5% depreciation of the Real increases EBITDA by around


R$403m (11%) and FCF by R$482 m (45%)
2016 E
4.13(1)
Exchange Rate
Average (R$/US$)

2.00

1.76

670
Fibria net pulp price
(US$/t)

1.67

639

456

1.95

581

2.16

2.35

610

572

3.01

573

561 (2)
2,317

Fibria net pulp price


(R$/t)

912

1,179

1,067

1,133

1,311

1,344

1,725

51%
EBITDA Margin

40%
29%

34%

36%

40%

56%

39%
1,540

1,488
1,173

1,153

1,295

1,185

815
438
EBITDA (US$ million)

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

LTM 3Q15

3Q15

(1) According to Focus Report (Brazilian Central Bank December 29, 2015) I (2) 2016 market consensus

28

Free Cash Flow


US$ million
329

317(1)

194

182
125
29

77

84

111

113
53

103

51

130

112

-7
-77
-256
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15

EBITDA Margin
39%

34%

33%

28%

30%

37%

37%

41%

39%

39%

41%

42%

41%

35%

35%

45%

50%

50%

56%

1.63

1.80

1.77

1.96

2.03

2.06

2.00

2.07

2.29

2.27

2.37

2.23

2.27

2.55

2.87

3.07

3.54

Average FX
1.67

1.60

(1) Before expansion capex

29

Free Cash Flow(1) LTM 3Q15


US$ million(4)

1,535

(517)
(115)

Adjusted
EBITDA

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

Capex
(ex-H2 project)

Net Interest

(124)

(24)

Working
Capital

Taxes

714

763
(49)

Others(3)

FCF
(ex-H2 project)(2)

Capex H2

FCF

Not considering dividend payment of R$149 million.


Not considering capex related to the Horizonte 2 project.
Includes other financial results.
Converted by LTM average FX R$/US$3.01

30

ROE and ROIC (US$)

ROE = Adjusted EBIT(1)/


Equity before IAS 41(2)

ROIC = Adjusted EBIT(3)/


Invested Capital before IAS 41(2)

31.7%

29.4%

23.5%

23.3%

10.2%

7.7%

7.2%

6.1%

4.7%

3.6%

1.0%
2011

Average
FX

(1)
(2)
(3)

2012

1.67

8.6%

2013

1.95

2014

2.16

LTM 3Q15

2.35

Annualized
3Q15

2011

3.54

Average
FX

3.01

2012

1.67

2013

1.95

2014

2.16

LTM 3Q15

2.35

Annualized
3Q15

3.01

3.54

Adjusted EBITDA CAPEX Net Interest Taxes


International accounting standards for biological assets.
Adjusted EBITDA CAPEX Taxes

31

Cash Production Cost (US$/t) 3Q15

221

14
200
11

3Q14

Inflation

(70)

FX

Lower energy
price

187

170

(13)
(17)

13

Maintenance
downtimes

Non recurring
wood

Non recurring
input
consumption

Non recurring
fixed costs

Total

Management
initiatives

Cash cost
3Q15

Total non
recurring

3Q15 recurring
cash cost

Management initiatives gains mostly offset the inflation impact

32

Cash Production Cost in dollars saw a decrease over the past 6 years

Fibria Cash Production Cost(1) (US$/ton)

264

281
242

231

234

220
190

2009 (2) 2010 (2)

2011

2012

2013

2014

Consistently
controlling the
production
cash cost

LTM 3Q15

(1) Constant Currency (2) Excludes Conpacel

33

Net Results (US$ million) 3Q15

438

ZCC

(622)

145

swap

current

(102)
(59)

(10)

(27)

(170)

deffered

Adjusted
EBITDA
3T15

(1)

Exchange
variation
on debt

Other
exchange
variation

MtM
hedge

Hedge
settlement

Net
Interest

(137)

203

Deprec.,
amortiz. and
depletion

Income
Taxes

Others(1)

Net Income
(Loss)
3T15

Includes non-recurring expenses/non-cash and other financial income/expenses.

34

Capital Structure: Fibria has achieved the lowest leverage ratio among
its Latin American peers
Net Debt/EBITDA (x)(1)

6.2
5.0

3.5
3.0
2.9
2.1
4Q11

1Q12

2Q12

3Q12

4Q12

Fibria

1Q13

Suzano

2Q13

3Q13

Klabin

4Q13

1Q14

2Q14

CMPC

3Q14

4Q14

Arauco

1Q15

2Q15

3Q15

Eldorado

Fibria

Arauco

CMPC

Klabin

Suzano

S&P

BBB-/Stable

BBB-/Stable

BBB-/Stable

BBB-/Negative

BB+/Stable

Moodys

Baa3/Stable

Baa3/Stable

Baa3/Negative

Ba2+/Stable

Fitch

BBB-/Stable

BBB/Stable

BBB+/Stable

BBB-/Stable

BB/Positive

(1)

Fibrias historical data in BRL.

35

One of the best performances among Brazilian corporate issuers(1)

914
795
695

387

393

401

406

Fibria

BRF

Globopar

Embraer

(1) G-spread on December 29, 2015

474

475

492

Klabin

Suzano

Brazil

Braskem

Vale

Gerdau

36

Investment Grade by all rating agencies


Interest expense, leverage and average cost of debt in US$

Historical G-spread (bps)

7.29

6.3

5.9

5.5
5.2

4.11

1.400

4.6

1.200

4.25

3.4

3.32

3.3(1)
1.000

2.60
2.41
473

414

408

350
268

800
1.58

200

149

600
400
200

2009
5.2

2010

2011

4.6
Leverage

2012

2013

Cost of debt

3.4

2014

2010

LTM
3Q15

Interest Expense
(US$ million)

2011
Fibria 2020

2012

2013

Fibria 2021

2014

2015

Fibria 2024

3.3(1)

BBB-

BBB-

Baa3

Obtaining of Investment Grade from the three rating agencies


37

Horizonte 2 Project
38

What is the importance of growth for Fibria?

Competitiveness

Commercial
positioning

Long-term growth
potential

Wider fixed costs dilution

Cost curve position improvement

Greater bargaining power with suppliers

Follow the growth of strategic customers

Developing new customers

Distribution to new geographic markets

Efficiency and competitiveness gains in logistics

Higher quality in customer service

Greater ability to capture new expansion market windows

Strong M&A position

39

Why expand Trs Lagoas?


ESTIMATED BHKP CAPACITY RANKING 2017 (000T)

Brownfield Project, synergies with current


operations

Modern plant, prepared for potential


expansion

Availability of wood and low average


distance from forest to mill

Forest based on the optionality concept and


prioritizing lease and partnership models

Additional energy surplus of 120 MWh

Start-up: 4Q2017
Capacity: 1.75 million tons

7,950

Fibria
CMPC
RGE/APRIL
Suzano
APP
Eldorado
UPM
Stora Enso
Arauco
Cenibra
ENCE
Altri
IP
Marubeni
Mitsubishi
Oji
Mondi
Nippon Paper
Verso
Resolute
Georgia-Pacific
Portucel Soporcel
Lwart
Pulp Mill Holding
Domtar
Klabin
Others
0

2000

4000

6000

8000

Current Capacity

New Capacity Klabin Agreement

New Capacity

New Capacity Horizonte II Project

Source: Poyry and Fibria Analysis (as of May 2015)

40

Pulp sales destination: Fibria growing where the market grows

37%
42%
19%

24%

36%
25%

4%

9%

Total sales volume distribution


after H2 start up(2)
Current net revenue distribution(1)

(1) Considers 3Q15 last twelve months. | (2) Includes Klabins sales volume

41

Schedule

Purchase of the
industrial plants

Beginning of
infrastructure and
purchase of the TGs

Beginning of forest
machinery deliveries

Beginning of
construction

Negotiations with
concession holders and
Port of Santos tendering

Beginning of
harvest

Beginning of
assembly

Definition of outbound
logistics formats

Initial hiring of harvest


workers

Startup

Utilities clearance
and commissioning

L1 interconnections
during maintenance
downtime

Hiring of operational
team

2Q15

3Q15

2015

4Q15

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

2016

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

2017
42

Forestry base
43

H2 Project will have the forest base ready for the start-up

Forestry base required:


H1:

120,000 ha

H2:

174,000 ha

Total:

294,000 ha

44

Logistics
45

Forestry Logistics
Low average distance from forest to mill

FOREST

MILL

95 km

H1 + H2 consolidated

46

Outbound logistics
Fibria has logistical alternatives on a competitive basis

Data Collection / Preliminary


Analysis

Ports
Highways
Railroads
Waterways

Analysis
Logistics Costs
Opex - Rates
Capex
Qualitative
Modal conditions

Mato Grosso
Brasilia

Gois
Mato
Grosso do
Sul

47

Financials
48

Even more competitive cash production cost w/ H2


BHKP (US$/t)
BHKP
capacity
(000 t)

1,825

1,460

1,035

2,200

4,645

3,470

14,045

Total: 28,680

BHKP (US$/t)

515

507

68

86

440
102

447

China

421

USA

338

Canada

383
25

358

Iberia

Working capital
release: US$10/t

340

326

60

47

280

Chile/Uruguay

Cash Cost (US$/t)

342
13
83

Interest

58

35
49

Capex
Income Tax
SG&A

174

171

151

Brazil

Fibria 3Q15

Fibria w/ H2

232

279

Indonesia

Delivery CIF Europe

Source: Hawkins Wright (Price Forecast October 2015) and Fibrias 3Q15 Earnings Release - FX considered by the consultant at R$/US$3.86. H2
cash cost was estimated according to weighted average cost, after mill balance, converted at R$3.86. Includes energy sales.

49

Expansion CAPEX update


From US$2.5 bi to US$2.2 bi
CAPEX (US$ billion)

Timetable
60%

2%

2.5
0.05

26%

0.65

2.2
0.20

9%

0.32

19%

33%

72%

72%

3%

3%
Original

BRL

EUR

Revised

USD and others

2015

2016

2017

2018

1%
2019 and
thereafter

FX and inflation partially offset by the negotiation with suppliers


50

Funding
Cost and maturity:

H2

3Q15

3Q15 + H2

Average Cost (US$ p.a)

3.3%

2.0%

2.8%

Average Maturity (years)

4.3

6.3

5.0

Amortization Schedule 3Q15 Proforma with TLS II US$ million


1,236
revolver

1,111

494

Cash (2)

742

104
Liquidity

2015

204

2016

66

1.320

481

321

2017

2018

BNDES
Capex H2

715

673

576

726

2019
Bond

66

2020
PPE

2021

139

119

2022

2023

NCE

2024

115

103

45

13

2025

2026

2027

2028

ACC/ACE

22

(1) Debt FX 3Q15: 3.9729 / FX considering new funding for the TLS II Project: 3.90 (2) Cash on hands: US$ 994 million

51

Rating agencies understand that the Project will not jeopardize


Fibrias credit metrics

We expect Fibria to continue benefiting from higher operating cash flows which
would allow it to enlarge its Trs Lagoas industrial complex while keeping its debt at
reasonable levels for a low investment-grade rating

Fitchs base case, which assumes that the company builds a new pulp mill (Trs
Lagoas II) starting in 2015 and uses net pulp prices of between USD575 and USD675
per ton during the construction period, results in net leverage reaching 3.5x(1). Net
leverage would quickly decline to around 2.5x(1) once the mill becomes operational
in the second half of 2017

(1) According to rating agency methodology

52

Project financials at a glance

UNIT

R$

US$

k tons

1,850

1,850

Expansion capex(1)

$ billion

8.7

2.2

Expansion capex(1)

$/t

4,702

1,189

Sustaining capex(2)

$/t

193

48

Cash cost(3)

$/t

341

85

MWh

120

120

Pulp production/year

Energy surplus

(1) Includes chemical leasing and investments in order to increase capacity to 1,850 kt/year.
(2) Estimated sustaining capex in perpetuity considering capacity of 1,850 kt/year.
(3) Estimated weighted average cost, after mill balance. Includes energy sales.

53

We dont think that such competitiveness is easily replicable, since the


scenario is becoming more complex
Land

Public funding constraints

Infrastructure/Logistics

Governance standards

Certified wood availability

Cost of capital

Environmental requirements

Credit rating

Although some potential


brownfields are listed,
there are significant
challenges.

Final Remarks
55

Fibrias structural fundamentals drive the leading return metrics

Less volatile commodity in US$

Unique customer base with steady

sales volumes through long-term


contracts

Costs in BRL
The highest forest productivity

Low cost of debt

worldwide
Strong corporate governance
Operational excellence

High ROE/ROIC in the long-term

56

Extraordinary Dividend of R$2 billion approved

DRIVERS
Strong cash generation

Low average cost of debt

Cash position above


minimum cash

Funding status of Horizonte 2 project

Low leverage level

Capital discipline

TIMELINE:
Record date: Nov 30th
Payment dates:
BM&FBovespa: Dec. 9, 2015.
NYSE: Dec. 16, 2015.

Dividend yield* = 7%

* Considering dividend of R$149 million paid in May and the proposed payment of R$ 2 billion on Market Cap. on September 30th, 2015.

57

Fibria is able to create value for its shareholders with capital discipline

FREE CASH FLOW

BIO-ENERGY AND

PULP

INDUSTRY
CONSOLIDATION ?

Growth with discipline

Best portfolio of projects

OTHER OPPORTUNITIES

DIVIDENDS

Complementary to pulp

Portocel

Land and forest

WITHOUT JEOPARDIZING CREDIT


METRICS
58

Backup
59

Structural Competitiveness

1. Third-party wood reduction

NPV: US$0.4 billion

2. Forestry operations productivity

NPV: US$0.6 billion

3. Industrial

NPV: US$0.1 billion


Total : US$1.1 billion

60

1. Third-party wood reduction


Wood supply recovering to normal condition

Peaking in 2016;

Returning to 2012s levels by the end of 2017;

NPV of R$1.4 billion from peak to normalized level.

100%

Third-party wood decrease will benefit


opex and capex

80%

60%

40%

Estimated level for

2015

20%

0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
10

1. Third-party wood reduction

Losango
Most part of the standing wood was already paid

Despite the higher forest to mill distance, the wood from Losango is less expensive than the
available wood from around Esprito Santo and Bahia States

Positive impact over industrial costs due to better productivity

11

2. Forestry operations productivity


Structural change improving competitiveness

CLASSIFYING THE FOREST BASE BY CATEGORIES


45%
40%

40%

36%
33%

35%
30%
25%
20%

20%

20%
15%

15%
10%

10%

10%

10%
6%

5%
0%
01 - Diamond

02 - Gold

03 - Silver

Current effective area

04 - Bronze

05 - Lead

Future effective area

The distribution costs by classes helps us to apply resources


in order to optimize wood production
12

2. Forestry operations productivity


Identifying opportunities based on these combinations

Possible Restrictions

Declivity
0: Higher than 35
1: Btw 24and 35
2: Btw 0 and 24

Conservation
Areas
CAs(1)

0: Within
1: Within EPA(2) and
EBZ(3)
2: Out of EPAs and
EBZ

Municipal
Restrictions
0: Total restrictions
1: Partial restrictions
2: No restrictions

Possible Impediments

EPA Altitude

Urban Zones

0: Higher than
1800m
1: Lower than
1800m

0: Urban Zones
1: Outside urban
areas

Remnants of
native
vegetation
0: Remnants areas
1: Outside remnants
areas

Possible combinations
X 0, 1 and 2, removed;
(1)
(2)
(3)

Conservation Areas
Envionmental Protection Areas
Environmental Buffer Zones

4 e 8, high potential
13

2. Forestry operations productivity


Cost and Capex KPIs were also included in this geo-model

Silviculture

Harvest

Roads
Transportation

14

2. Forestry operations productivity


Harvest
Mixed Harvest Mechanization (Hilly areas)

PROJECT DESCRIPTION (JACARE UNIT)

Mixed cutting operation with high


demand for MO and high risk to safety;
Harvest limitations in areas above
24 degrees;
Increase annual capacity to harvest in
areas up to 35 degrees , previously "locked up" by
harvesting capacity of manual staff;

NPV: R$71 million


Capex: R$5 million
Operational since Aug 2015

15

2. Forestry operations productivity


Transportation
PIFF
Woodchip transportation

Timber transportation

PROJECT DESCRIPTION (ARACRUZ, JACARE AND TRS LAGOAS UNITS)

Freight cost reduction;


Increased load box for timber/woodchip
transport
Use of lightweight steel;

Operational risk reduction (flipping);


Investment: R$33 million
NPV: R$139 million
Startup: 2015 / 2016

16

2. Forestry operations productivity


Transportation
Maritime Wood Shipping Project

PROJECT DESCRIPTION (ARACRUZ UNIT)


Capex and Opex reduction;

Capex: R$38 million

Increase in cargo handling due to increase in

NPV: R$95 million

stack height volume

Startup: Jan/2017

Reduction in heavy truck road traffic


17

2. Structural change in forestry operations productivity

Structural cost reduction of R$170 million per year (Capex + Opex) in 2020;

NPV of approximately R$2 billion

Seek opportunities for purchase / lease of more attractive areas, divest from unattractive land/forest, as well as the implementation of
technologies that will lead us to the structural cost

NPV Expected Curve


100%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%
20%

30%
10%

0%
2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

18

3. Industrial: maintenance downtimes schedule change

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15

1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17

1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18

Mills
Aracruz A

No maintenance downtime

Aracruz B

No maintenance downtime

Aracruz C
Jacare

No maintenance downtime

Trs Lagoas
Veracel

No maintenance downtime
No maintenance downtime

Regulatory Standard 13 (Boiler and Pressure Vessel Inspection) extended the maximum period between
recovery boiler inspections from 12 to 15 months.
Fibria was the first company to use the extended period benefit
NPV: R$385 million

19

3. Industrial: Biological Sludge Dryer


Biological Sludge Dryness Process
Operational Flow Conditioning and biological sludge burn
Sludge drying and burn in biomass boiler

00

Effluent+Sludge
Aeration Tank

Sludge Dryer
Biological
Sludge Tank

00

Biomass
Boiler

Biomass Pile

PROJECT DESCRIPTION (JACARE UNIT)


Variable cost reduction associated
with the disposal of sludge operations
in external landfill

Capex: R$18 million


NPV: R$100 million
Startup: Dec./2016

20

Fibrias tax structure

TAX BENEFITS (R$)


Fiscal - annual adjustment
Benefit

Tax loss carry forward and tax credits


Amount

Goodwill
(Aracruz
acquisition)

Forestry Capex
in Mato Grosso
do Sul state

Maturity

Benefit

Amount

Tax loss
carryforward

Annual tax deduction:


US$30 million (tax)
Remaining Balance Sept/15:
US$ 0.266 billion (base)

2015 tax deduction related


to depletion: US$7.7 million

Balance up to set. 15: US$93


million (base)

2018

Balance set/2015:
- PIS/COFINS: US$161 million
Accumulated tax
credits

Undefined

- Withholding tax (IR and CSLL):


R$205 million
- Befiex: US$98 million
- Reintegra: US$20 million

TAX PAYMENT (cash basis)


2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

US$ 9 million

US$ 2 million

US$ 8 million

US$ 14 million

US$ 12 million

US$ 16 million

72

Capex Fibria, except H2 Project(2) US$ million

604(1)
520

516(1)

Management
Initiatives

2015 Guidance

FX

Inflation

Capex
reduction

(1)
(2)

2015 Guidance Trucks Purchase


Update
(2nd phase)

Higher nonrecurring
sustaining
investments

External Factors

Higher
Higher third part
investments in
wood
other
participation
modernization
projects

FX

Inflation

2016 Guidance

Converted by 3Q15 end of period FX - USD/BRL 3.97


Subject to board approval

73

Capex Fibria, except H2 Project US$ million(1)

516
424

2016 Guidance Modernization

Industrial
Maintenance
/ Forest
equipment

(1)
(2)

Losango

Higher Spending
on
turbogenerator
overhaul in 2016

Wood
Purchase

Structural Capex

406

Estructural
Forestry
Wood Cost
operations
Reduction
productivity
increase

Structural Capex

Converted by 3Q15 end of period FX - USD/BRL 3.97


Subject to board approval

74

Capex Fibria, except H2 Project US$ million

509

424(1)

Structural Capex (as


shown last year)

Inflation and FX

(1)

Structural Capex

406(1)

Estructural Wood
Cost Reduction

Structural Capex

Converted by 3Q15 end of period FX - USD/BRL 3.97

75

Leadership Position
Industry Outlook(1)
Fiber Consumption
406 million t

59%

41%

Recycled Fiber
238 million t

Pulp
168 million t

18%

82%

Mechanical
30 million t

Chemical
138 million t

59%

41%

Integrated Mills
82 million t

Market Pulp
56 million t
54%

46%
Softwood/Other
26 million t

Hardwood
30 million t

33%

67%

Acacia/Other
10 million t

Eucalyptus
20 million t

74%
Other Eucalyptus
Pulp producers:
15 million t

26%

(1) Fiber Consumption, Recycled Fiber and Pulp: RISI | Market Pulp, Hardwood and Eucalyptus: PPPC Global 100 Report December 2014

76

Global Market Pulp Demand


Hardwood demand will continue to increase at a faster pace than Softwood
Hardwood (BHKP) vs. Softwood (BSKP) (000 ton)

Demand growth rate

40.000
35.000

000 ton

1999

2009

2019

Growth
19992009

Growth
20092019

Hardwood

16.3

24.8

33.8

52%

36%

Eucalyptus

6.0

15.9

24.1

165%

52%

Softwood

19.0

21.4

24.9

13%

16%

Market Pulp

35.3

46.2

58.7

30%

27%

30.000
25.000
20.000
15.000

2014 - 2019 CAGR:


Hardwood: +2.5%
Softwood: +0.8%

10.000
5.000

Hardwood

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

Softwood

Source: PPPC report (Sept. 2015)

Source: PPPC reports. Excludes Sulphite and UKP market pulp (Sept./15)

Paper Production Runnability with BHKP

Source: RISI conference, August 2014.

77

Benefiting From Chinas Growth


Chinas Hardwood Imports of BHKP by Country (1)
(000s t)

World Tissue Consumption, 1991-2013 (3)


(million t)

Latin America is the


leading exporter of BHKP
to China, accounting to
approximately 54% of
China's total imports in
9M15.

9M2014

6.876
6.334

9M2015

3.087

3.680

LTM Growth
Rate +4.2%

30
25
20
15

1.5931.558

BHKP Total

(kg/person/year)

35

10

1.486 1.342

129 139

26 151

USA

Canada

Latin
Indonesia Others(2)
America (1)

5
13

Western
Europe

1991 1996 2001 2006 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


N.America
Middle East
Oceania

(1) includes South Africa and New Zealand. | (2) Includes China, Japan, Malaysia, Russia, Thailand and Vietnam.

China's Share of Market Pulp (2)


25%
20%

Between 2005 and 2014,


the Chinese market share
of eucalyptus shipments
increased by 19 p.p. (total
market pulp: + p.p.)

22%

21%

23%

23%

W.Europe
Japan
Africa

E.Europe
China

L.America
Asia FE

Per Capita Consumption of Tissue by World Region (3)


23%

(million t)

12
10

17%

(Kg/capita/year)

24

8
15%

12%
10%

14%

15
6

10%

10%
4
5%

15
12
7

0%

5
1

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Eucalyptus

Hardwood

Total

% Compared to the global Market Pulp

N.
West Japan Oceania East LatAm
America Europe
Europe

China

Africa

(1) PPPC Pulp China Flash Report September 2015


(2) PPPC W20. Coverage for chemical market pulp is 80% of world capacity
(3) RISI

78

Global Paper Consumption


CAGR 1996 2006
Developed Markets: + 1.7%
Emerging Markets : + 6.0%

117,611

CAGR 2007 2016


Developed Markets: - 4.0%
Emerging Markets : + 4.1%

114,507

85,291

P&W
Consumption
(000 tons)(1)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Developed Markets

Emerging Markets

CAGR 2007 2016


Developed Markets: + 1.4%
Emerging Markets : + 6.7%

CAGR 1996 2006


Developed Markets: + 2.4%
Emerging Markets : + 6.9%

37,474

26,877

15,548

Tissue
Consumption
(000 tons)(1)

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Developed Markets

Emerging Markets

Source: RISI

79

Potrebbero piacerti anche