Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
, 5f0Saskatche
d
a
r
B ier o
Prem
2015 was busy with a long federal election, an Alberta election, a Newfoundland and Labrador election and
multiple local races. With 2016 shaping up to have races in Canada and abroad, Zain Velji of The Strategists
talks to our own Quito Maggi about this year, last year and the state of the polling industry.
We had some very surprising
elections this year, how do you
think polling held up?
I think the industry as a whole had
a good year. Early on in the
Alberta election, it looked very
much like the industry was going
to sit it out, we saw a few national
pollsters say it was too volatile.
Mainstreet had been polling
Alberta for 6 months leading up to
the election, when the early call
came in the spring, we thought we
would be going it alone. During
the last ten days of the election, a
few
others
did
eventually
overcome their 2012 induced
shyness and started polling.
We were glad to take the lead in
Alberta and happy to be the only
pollster still doing monthly polls. I
was still surprised to see so many
pollsters
predicting
a
PC
government despite all the data
pointing to an NDP win but that
can be explained by the surprise
result in 2012.
The federal election was the rst
one for Mainstreet and we did
pretty well, predicting the three
major national parties within 1.5%
and calling the Liberal Majority, the
only pollster to do so. Largely we
saw most polling rms get it right.
It looks like IVR pollsters took the
top spots this time and the online
panels seemed to be most distant
to actual results.
We are still very interested in some
results yet to be made public, that
being the advance poll results
which some pollsters predicted
CANADA
ALBERTA
CALGARY FOOTHILLS
SUDBURY
When
Donald
Trump
rst
announced for president the
wisdom among my friends and
colleagues was that he could not,
would not become the republican
nominee.
And
then
a
funny
thing
happened. The numbers moved.
Trump
has
gone
from
overwhelming
net
negatives
among republicans to solid net
positives. He is not that much
more disliked than Hilary (for
now) among the general pop. and
while his approvals with minority
groups are in the gutter it may
not matter.
Trump has been re-writing the
rules again and again and again.
Just this past week he has begun
taking the ght to Bill Clinton,
calling him one of the One of the
President
You know, of
course, I would
never say they do
this, but they have a
very small sample.
if they take about
ten votes and put
them in their
pocket - you
understand that.
Brad, 50
Premier of Saskatchewan
ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.
I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada