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2015 was busy with a long federal election, an Alberta election, a Newfoundland and Labrador election and
multiple local races. With 2016 shaping up to have races in Canada and abroad, Zain Velji of The Strategists
talks to our own Quito Maggi about this year, last year and the state of the polling industry.
We had some very surprising
elections this year, how do you
think polling held up?
I think the industry as a whole had
a good year. Early on in the
Alberta election, it looked very
much like the industry was going
to sit it out, we saw a few national
pollsters say it was too volatile.
Mainstreet had been polling
Alberta for 6 months leading up to
the election, when the early call
came in the spring, we thought we
would be going it alone. During
the last ten days of the election, a
few
others
did
eventually
overcome their 2012 induced
shyness and started polling.
We were glad to take the lead in
Alberta and happy to be the only
pollster still doing monthly polls. I
was still surprised to see so many
pollsters
predicting
a
PC
government despite all the data
pointing to an NDP win but that
can be explained by the surprise
result in 2012.
The federal election was the rst
one for Mainstreet and we did
pretty well, predicting the three
major national parties within 1.5%
and calling the Liberal Majority, the
only pollster to do so. Largely we
saw most polling rms get it right.
It looks like IVR pollsters took the
top spots this time and the online
panels seemed to be most distant
to actual results.
We are still very interested in some
results yet to be made public, that
being the advance poll results
which some pollsters predicted

were won by the NDP but our data


shows
were
won
by
the
Conservatives, by a very small
margin over the Liberals.
The industry went through some
challenges in 2015 that I consider
self
inicted
wounds.
The
formation of CAPOR which was
supposed to be a positive step
forward for the industry, became a
source of contention and led to a
divide
between
probability
sampling
rms
and
non
probability sampling rms. The
stampede to the Internet and
online panels, based largely on
limited success predicting US
elections, where a two party
system is essentially a coin toss
scenario, is aecting polling across
the rest of the globe.
Personally, I would like to credit
Frank Graves at Ekos for his
leadership in 2015 in blending
online
panel
and
IVR
methodologies. This experiment
with hybrid sampling is likely a
trend that will continue and is
something Mainstreet is studying
and experimenting with.
You've been talking about some
of the challenges polling is facing
in the future; what do you think
will be the biggest challenge in
2016?
2016 will be an exciting year, we
have two Provincial elections in
early 2016, with both Manitoba
and Saskatchewan voters going to
the polls. There is also an election
in the US with some potential for

surprises in both Republican and


Democratic primaries.
I spoke recently at the Fields
Institute about the challenges
faced by the polling industry. I was
proud to be the rst non pure
researcher to present to the Fields
Institute and look forward to
working with them in the years
ahead.
The
challenges
we
discussed
included
declining
response rates, the emergence of
non probability sampling, and
changing cultural and socio
economic trends that impact our
ability to accurately reect ballot
box voter intentions.
I don't believe we will face many
dierent challenges in 2016 than
what we faced in 2015, both
Saskatchewan
and
Manitoba
elections are expected to be
consistent and predictable. There
are some economic factors that
may impact the current Sask Party
government and could provide
some excitement to what is largely
expected to be a cake walk for
Brad Wall. As the NDP leader Cam
Broten gets more exposure during
the campaign, he may gain
traction.
The Liberals will be the X factor in
both these Provincial elections as
we have seen crossover support
based on the popularity of Justin
Trudeau and the federal LIberals.
I wouldn't expect to see a Liberal
government in either Manitoba or
Saskatchewan anytime soon, but I
would expect them to make gains,
perhaps signicant gains.

even in Southwestern Ontario.


I suppose given where the Liberals
were in July, a majority is
surprising nonetheless.
We talked about the challenges of
2016. But tell me what we can look
forward to in polling; what's next?
Mainstreet has been working on a
few new things that we announced
in late 2015 but we think will be
widely implemented in 2016.

A crowded and growing eld of


pollsters in the US election will
have its own challenges as media
outlets and polling rms jockey for
relevance and prominence.
Twitter polls, Facebook polls and
Google surveys are now in the
space and could pose a threat to
the polling industry much in the
same way they did the media
industry over the last decade.
Looking back, was there anything
that surprised you in 2015?
The most surprising thing in 2015
was the NDP majority government
in Alberta, but only in the context
of where relative voting intentions
stood just after Jim Prentice
became Premier. At that time, the
PCS enjoyed a 25% lead over their
nearest rivals in the Wildrose Party
and it appeared Prentice would
usher in another decade or more
of PC dominance. A series of
events,
including
the
oor
crossing, the budget and the early
election call itself led to what is

arguably the biggest and fastest


political collapse in Canadian
history.
Although many observers were
equally surprised with the Federal
election results, the conditions
were always there for a majority
government for either the Liberals
or the NDP. The election was
decided in my opinion on August
6th when Trudeau out performed
both Harper and Mulcair and
continued to gain strength and
momentum over the next 74 days.
As I explained on numerous media
outlets in the days leading up to
election day, (including your
Strategists podcast) our call of a
Liberal majority wasn't based on
"how much" the Liberal lead was
but where they were leading.
Once it became clear that they led
in Quebec outisde of Montreal and
Quebec City we knew that pointed
to over 40 seats in Quebec and
similarly in Ontario once Liberals
extended the lead in the 905 and

First is the introduction of our


Chimera IVR technology which
incorporates live voice capture to
allow for open ended questions in
IVR surveys. This will revolutionize
IVR polling and let us expand the
types of surveys we can undertake
using IVR. Although we currently
oer live agent surveys that can
handle open ended questions, the
cost is many times more expensive
than IVR. With the launch of
Chimera IVR, we will be able to
oer our clients the large sample
sizes they have come to expect
from us, at a fraction of the price
for the same survey.
I am most excited about launching
our Voter and Polling App called
CampaignR. The app was in
development for most of 2015 and
we had hoped to launch during the
federal election, but we were so
busy in the last few weeks, we
decided to postpone to 2016. The
app is available for iphone and
Android,
and
will
run
on
BlackBerry with an Android
operating system.
The app let's people get all the
information they may need to
make an informed decision,
including when and where to vote,
debate locations, party and
candidate news feeds, and of
course, they can participate in and
view poll results. We will be
loading
both
the
Provincial
elections in Canada and the US
election later in 2016. - Toronto,
January 1st.

CANADA

ALBERTA

Only Pollster to predict a Liberal Majority.


Most accurate on main party numbers.

First to call the NDP Majority and the most


active pollster of the Alberta Election.

CALGARY FOOTHILLS

SUDBURY

Most Accurate Pollster of Calgary Foothills


- Correctly predicted a Wildrose Victory.

Most Accurate Pollster of the Sudbury by


election, correctly predicted a Liberal win.

David Valentin on Donald Trump & Saskatchewan.

When
Donald
Trump
rst
announced for president the
wisdom among my friends and
colleagues was that he could not,
would not become the republican
nominee.

Its worth noting that the NYTs


Nate Silver based his original
prediction Trump wouldnt do
well in the republican primary on
high negative numbers among
republicans.

Now, my friends have to satisfy


themselves by insisting that if the
Donald wins the GOP crown that
it wont matter anyway because
hell lose to Hilary.

And
then
a
funny
thing
happened. The numbers moved.

This could turn out to be the case,


I suppose, but a Clinton victory
over Trump wont be easy and is
no sure thing.
Most make their case by citing
polls showing high negatives for
Trump
among
the general
population, even though these
polls also show high negatives for
Clinton.

Trump
has
gone
from
overwhelming
net
negatives
among republicans to solid net
positives. He is not that much
more disliked than Hilary (for
now) among the general pop. and
while his approvals with minority
groups are in the gutter it may
not matter.
Trump has been re-writing the
rules again and again and again.
Just this past week he has begun
taking the ght to Bill Clinton,
calling him one of the One of the

Great Abusers. No part of the


Clinton record, any of it, is
o-limits.
If we get the Clinton-Trump
showdown be prepared for an
intense race and high voter
turnout.
Clinton is a strong candidate but
carries decades of baggage. Her
tenure as Secretary of State used
to be a strong positive, thats not
the case anymore. Self-inected
wounds from her e-mail scandal
have not helped whatsoever.
Theres a lot happening in the
world right now and it is
impossible to predict what
external events will happen
between now and election day.
But dont rule out
Trump. Not yet.

President

IN HIS OWN WORDS: ON POLLING


Donald Trump loves polls. At every campaign event he mentions them, sometimes going on and on and on
about them. Heres Trump, unltered, at a December 14th rally in Nevada.
So, today we had a lot of news
and it was all good - it never gets
reported properly by these people
back here, look at all those press.
Well, you know, Ive learned two
things, more than anything else,
how smart the people are and how
bad and dishonest the press is. It is
really dishonest. It is really, really,
dishonest.
So we had a lot of polls coming
out today and they were really
good.
Thats right.
So we had a Monmouth poll - very
highly respected, Trump 41, Cruz
14, and everyone else much lower,
I mean, somewhere.
So, I heard today, when they
announced the poll, 41 to 14, and I
like Cruz, good guy, but I heard,
heres how they announced: Cruz
surging.

You know, of
course, I would
never say they do
this, but they have a
very small sample.
if they take about
ten votes and put
them in their
pocket - you
understand that.

So when I heard, this was on


television, Cruz surging, so I said
oh, I dont know, that sounds bad
to me. Coming up: Cruz surging.
Then they say the Monmouth poll
was just done, Cruz is surging,
Trump 41, Cruz 14 - I say, wait a
minute. Whats going on? I tell you
what, they are the most dishonest
people.

So they just did this poll, its a new


poll, CNN in Iowa, Trump 33, Cruz
20 and then everyone else much
lower.

So we actually sent a couple of


e-mails, started to tweet a little bit,
you know the Twitter is great
when you have between 5 and 10
and 13, we have so many people.
We have millions. So we started to
Then, then, you know about CNN. tweet, we said: Why is CNN not
CNN came out, just recently, 36 to playing their poll? Its their poll.
16. Gravis poll, highly respected,
42 to 16 to 12 to 11.
So, if anybody has an idea please
let me know before the evening
So then, today, it was very ends.
interesting because I did have one
poll in Iowa, which I never expect Then, then, we had a FOX News
to get, I cant stand the paper, its a poll, which was a pretty good poll
horrible paper. The Des Moines it was pretty much tied.
register is terrible.
Then we had Quinnipiac, and
You know, of course, I would never Qunnipiac was 28 Trump, 27 Cruz,
say they do this, but they have a in other words, we won. They call it
very small sample, if they take a tie. They say I was tied, OK. I
about ten votes and put them in mean, its not a win.
their pocket -you understand that.
You know the bottom line: I think
So, Des Moines Register was 22-31 were gonna win Iowa, I think were
and all of a sudden it was like the going to win New Hampshire big, I
biggest story Ive ever seen. Okay? think that, frankly if win Iowa we
run the table, I think frankly if we
That was just Iowa, dont worry win NH, which were way, way, way
about it, its Iowa. We love Iowa up and South Carolina has been
but I think were doing great in unbelievable and, by the way, in
Iowa - and I expect to win Iowa. Nevada, in Nevada, were winning
We think were going to do great big, big, big.
in Iowa.
Were winning in Florida, were
I get by far the biggest crowds, winning everywere! So I just want
and OK.
to let you know this is not going to
be a waste of anyones time. This is
So then we had a CNN poll. So going to be something special.
CNN today, they were talking
about a poll that wasnt theirs. Do I hear some noise over there?
And I kept saying: Why dont they yes I do! Bye Bye. (Protestor is
talk about a poll thats theirs?
escored out).

Brad, 50

Premier of Saskatchewan

Heading Canadas last conservative government,


Brad Wall is the most popular Premier in the country.
In oce since 2007, hes also Canadas long-serving
provincial leader. Though aected by the drop in
commodity prices, Saskatchewans economy has
fared better than its neighbour in Alberta. All of
which makes Saskatchewans votescheduled for
April 4 an election not to be missed.

Though the provinces economy hasnt been hit


nearly as hard as Albertas, the fall 2015 economic
update predicted a $262 million decit. Outside the
Prairies, Wall has frequently been mentioned a
potential leader of the federal Conservatives; as the
last conservative Premier in Canada hes been a
leading right-wing voice on issues such as Syrian
refugees and climate change.

With sky-high approval ratings and a growing


economy, it seems a safe bet that the provinces
voters will give Wall and his Saskatchewan Party a
third straight mandate come spring time. Yet after a
year thats seen majority wins for Rachel Notley and
Justin Trudeau, it seems foolish to write o NDP
leader Cam Broten before the rst debate.

With four months to go until Saskatchewan voters


head to the polls, all signs seem to indicate an easy
third term for Wall and his party. Yet four months
before Albertas election, then-Premier Jim Prentice
held a 20 plus point lead in the polls, facing a
shattered opposition. Though a continuation of Tory
dominance seemed all but inevitable, we know
exactly how that one turned out. Yet Wall is not
Prentice. Hes won big twice before, and his two-term

How did we get here? Regardless of how he fares this


time around, Brad Wall has already cemented his
place in Saskatchewans political history. One of the
Saskatchewan Partys inaugural crop of MLAs, Wall
has represented Swift Current since 1999. Elected
leader in 2004, he made signicant eorts to
broaden the partys appeal en route to a solid
majority win in 2007. Buoyed by a resource boom
and growing population, Wall and his party cruised
to a second term in 2011, taking a commanding 64
percent of the vote and 49 of 58 seats, one of the
largest majorities in Saskatchewan history.
Since then, the centre-right partys appeal hasnt
diminished, despite dismal results for conservative
parties nationwide. This comes to the chagrin of Cam
Broten, a two-term Saskatoon MLA who narrowly
won the leadership of the Saskatchewan NDP in
2013. Perhaps hoping to emulate Justin Trudeaus
success in 2015, Broten, 37, is running on a message
of generational change and renewal. He recently
noted that the average age of his candidates is 42
and emphasized the diversity of the NDPs slate. This
move is also an attempt to distance Brotens party
from previous NDP governments, an association that
proved fatal to the party in 2011.
Much the same as Stephen Harper in his multiple
election campaigns, Wall is unequivocal about his
top priority: the economy. His government has
presided over boom years for the province, whose
economy has regularly been one of the fastest
growing in Canada since the partys election. Much
of this has been due to high resource prices,
especially for potash and oil. Yet the global downturn
in commodity prices hasnt spared Saskatchewan.

Wall is not Prentice.


Hes won big twice
before, and his two-term
government has a record
most provincial
politicians would envy.
government has a record most provincial politicians
would envy. A seasoned professional whos spent
nearly his entire adult life in Saskatchewan politics,
Wall is unlikely to commit the errors that doomed
Prentice and his government.
As we approach the drop of the writ, many questions
remain. Will voters focus more on the past years of
rapid economic growth, or the more dim outlook
ahead? Will Broten succeed in making the ballot
question a choice between a tired, boring incumbent
and a youthful, energetic challenger? Will the federal
Liberals decent showing help their provincial
cousins come back from the dead? Or will the man
whose popularity is surpassed only by Justin
Trudeau laugh his way to a third straight majority?
Stay tuned as Mainstreet brings its unique
methodology to Saskatchewans 28th general
election.

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

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