Psychological Considerations on Car Designs An Investigation of Behavioral and Perceptual Aspects Using Eye

Tracking and Cross-Cultural Studies

DISSERTATION
of the University of St. Gallen,
School of Management,
Economics, Law, Social Sciences
and International Affairs
to obtain the title of
Doctor of Philosophy in Management
submitted by
Christian Purucker
from
Germany

Approved on the application of

Prof. Dr. Andreas Herrmann

and
Prof. Dr. Torsten Tomczak

Dissertation no. 4038

Difo-Druck GmbH, Bamberg 2012

7KH 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 6W *DOOHQ 6FKRRO RI 0DQDJHPHQW (FRQRPLFV /DZ 6RFLDO
6FLHQFHV DQG ,QWHUQDWLRQDO $IIDLUV KHUHE\ FRQVHQWV WR WKH SULQWLQJ RI WKH SUHVHQW
GLVVHUWDWLRQZLWKRXWKHUHE\H[SUHVVLQJDQ\RSLQLRQRQWKHYLHZVKHUHLQH[SUHVVHG


6W*DOOHQ0D\


7KH3UHVLGHQW



3URI'U7KRPDV%LHJHU


$FNQRZOHGJPHQWV
)LUVWDQGIRUHPRVW,ZRXOGOLNHWRH[SUHVVP\VLQFHUHJUDWLWXGHWR3URIHVVRU$QGUHDV
+HUUPDQQP\SULPDU\VXSHUYLVRUDQGWR3URIHVVRU7RUVWHQ7RPF]DNP\VHFRQGDU\
VXSHUYLVRU IRU WKHLU HQFRXUDJLQJ JXLGDQFH DQG VFLHQWLILF VXSSRUW 7KH UHVHDUFK
HQYLURQPHQW DQG WKH SRVVLELOLWLHV SURYLGHG DW WKH &HQWHU IRU &XVWRPHU ,QVLJKW DW WKH
8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQDUHWUXO\RXWVWDQGLQJ
, DP DOVR LQGHEWHG WR P\ DGYLVRUV DQG DFDGHPLF FROODERUDWRUV 3URIHVVRU -DQ 5
/DQGZHKUDQG3URIHVVRU'DYLG(6SURWWERWKRIZKRPSURYLGHGLQYDOXDEOHDVVLVWDQFH
ZLWK PHWKRGRORJLFDO TXHVWLRQV DQG KHOSHG PH LPPHQVHO\ GXULQJ WKH SXEOLFDWLRQ
SURFHVV7KHLUKRQHVWDQGFRQVWUXFWLYHIHHGEDFNZDVYHU\LPSRUWDQWWRPH
7KHJUHDWRSSRUWXQLW\WRZRUNZLWKWKH$XGL$*KHOSHGPHWRJHWKDQGVRQH[SHULHQFH
LQ &KLQD WDXJKW PH D ORW DERXW VWUDWHJLF DQG DSSOLHG GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ DQG DOZD\V
PRWLYDWHG PH WR FKDOOHQJH WKH SUDFWLFDO LPSDFW RI P\ ZRUN ,W LV (IVWUDWLD =DIHLULRX
ZKRP,DPSDUWLFXODUO\JUDWHIXOWRRQWKDWDFFRXQW
'XULQJWKHFRXUVHRIWKLVZRUNFROOHDJXHVKDYHEHFRPHGHDUIULHQGV$PRQJRWKHUV,
ZDQW WR WKDQN .OHPHQV .Q|IHUOH 3KLOLSS 6FKDUIHQEHUJHU &DULQD /HHVFK 'DQLHO
6WDGHO &KULVWLDQ +LOGHEUDQG DQG 0LULDP YDQ 7LOEXUJ QRW WR IRUJHW DERXW %HUQKDUG
*HLVVHOHU /XFDV %HFN 6XOHLPDQ $U\REVHL (PDQXHO GH %HOOLV DQG :LENH +HLGLJ
(YHU\RQHRIWKHPFRQWULEXWHGWRWKHVXFFHVVRIWKLVZRUNLQWKHLURZQZD\DQGPDGH
P\WLPHDW6W*DOOHQ8QLYHUVLW\YHU\HQMR\DEOH
)LQDOO\,ZDQWWRWKDQNP\IDPLO\SDUWLFXODUO\P\PRWKHU,OVH3XUXFNHUP\EURWKHU
0LFKDHO 3XUXFNHU DQG P\ IDWKHU :HUQHU .UHKQNH ZKR KDYH DOZD\V VXSSRUWHG DQG
HQFRXUDJHG PH LQ P\ GHFLVLRQV $QG RI FRXUVH .DWKDULQD +RUQ P\ ORYH :LWKRXW
\RXWKLVZRUNZRXOGQRWKDYHEHHQSRVVLEOH



6W*DOOHQ0DUFK



&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU

7DEOHRI&RQWHQWV
$ 6XPPDU\
% $UWLFOH,
3XUXFNHU & /DQGZHKU - 5 6SURWW ' (  +HUUPDQQ $ LQ SUHVV &OXVWHUHG
,QVLJKWV ,PSURYLQJ (\H 7UDFNLQJ 'DWD $QDO\VLV 8VLQJ 6FDQ 6WDWLVWLFV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI0DUNHW5HVHDUFK
& $UWLFOH,,
3XUXFNHU & 6SURWW ' (  +HUUPDQQ $ LQ SUHSDUDWLRQ IRU VXEPLVVLRQ
(PRWLRQDO &DU )URQWV (OLFLWLQJ %LRORJLFDO 3UHSDUHGQHVV ZLWK 3URGXFW 'HVLJQ
-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF3V\FKRORJ\
' $UWLFOH,,,
3XUXFNHU&LQSUHSDUDWLRQIRUVXEPLVVLRQ+HDGOLJKW3UHIHUHQFHV$&URVV&XOWXUDO
$VVHVVPHQW RI &RQVXPHUV 3HUFHSWLRQV RI $QWKURSRPRUSKLF &DU )URQWV
0DUNHWLQJ/HWWHUV
( $UWLFOH,9
3XUXFNHU & +HUUPDQQ $  6SURWW ' ( LQ SUHSDUDWLRQ IRU VXEPLVVLRQ 7KH
)HHOLQJ RI .QRZLQJ WKH %UDQG 7KH ,QWHUSOD\ RI %UDQG $ZDUHQHVV 0HDVXUHV
DQG &RXQWU\ RI 2ULJLQ ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ &XVWRPHUV :LOOLQJQHVV WR 3XUFKDVH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO0DUNHWLQJ5HYLHZ
) /LVWRI3XEOLFDWLRQV
* &XUULFXOXP9LWDH


6XPPDU\
3URGXFW GHVLJQ LV D NH\ GULYHU IRU PDUNHW DQG VDOHV VXFFHVV D IDFW ZKLFK FDQ EH
VWUDLJKWIRUZDUGO\REVHUYHGZKHQUHYLHZLQJWRGD\VPRVWVXFFHVVIXOFRQVXPHUJRRGV
EHLWJRRGVIURPWKHUDSLGO\GHYHORSLQJHOHFWURQLFVEUDQFKPRUHWUDGLWLRQDOLQGXVWULHV
OLNH DXWRPRELOHV RU JRRGV IURP IXUQLWXUH LQGXVWU\ ZKLFK DUH RIWHQ FRQVLGHUHG DV
WLPHOHVV ,W PD\ VHHP DOPRVW VXUSULVLQJ WKDW RQO\ LQ UHFHQW \HDUV KDV PDUNHWLQJ
UHVHDUFK SXUVXHG JUHDWHU HIIRUWV WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH UROH RI SURGXFW GHVLJQ +RZHYHU
ILUVW SXEOLFDWLRQV LQ WKLV DUHD VXJJHVW WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI DQ H[FLWLQJ DQG LPSRUWDQW
ILHOGRIUHVHDUFK
7KH FXUUHQW ZRUN FRQWDLQV VHYHUDO DUWLFOHV WKDW FRQWULEXWH LQ YDULRXV ZD\V WR WKH
NQRZOHGJH EDVH RQ FRQVXPHUV SHUFHSWLRQ RI SURGXFW GHVLJQ DQG UHODWHG VFLHQWLILF
DUHDV /LWHUDWXUH RQ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF KXPDQOLNH SURGXFW GHVLJQV
VXFKDVFDUIURQWVVHUYHGDVDVWDUWLQJSRLQWIRUWKHUHVHDUFK
$ ILUVW HQGHDYRU ZDV WR VKRZ WKDW DIIHFWODGHQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQV DUH
QRW RQO\ SHUFHLYHG VXEMHFWLYHO\ DV KXPDQOLNH DQG HYRNH DIIHFWLYH UHVSRQVHV LQ
FRQVXPHUVOLNHWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIHPRWLRQDOKXPDQIDFHVEXWFDQDOVROHDGWRLPSOLFLW
EHKDYLRUDO UHDFWLRQV LQ WKH YLHZHU 7KRVH REVHUYHG UHVSRQVHV FDQ EH H[SODLQHG IURP
WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRULHV DQG UHVXOWV SURYLGH D YDOXDEOH LQVLJKW IRU
SURGXFW PDQDJHUV DQG GHVLJQHUV LQ WKHLU TXHVW WR ILQG DSSHDOLQJ DQG RXWVWDQGLQJ
SURGXFWGHVLJQV7KHLQYHVWLJDWLRQZDVFRQGXFWHGUHO\LQJRQH\HWUDFNLQJH[SHULPHQWV
ZLWKDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWV:KLOH$UWLFOH,SURYLGHVDPHWKRGRORJLFDOH[WHQVLRQ
RI H[LVWLQJ H\H WUDFNLQJ DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV $UWLFOH ,, IRFXVVHV RQ WKH RXWOLQHG
SHUFHSWXDOWRSLF
&RQWHPSRUDU\UHVHDUFKRQSURGXFWGHVLJQQRZDGD\VFRQFHQWUDWHVPDLQO\RQFXVWRPHUV
IURP:HVWHUQFXOWXUDOEDFNJURXQGVEXWLQDQHUDRIJOREDOL]HGPDUNHWVWKLVIRFXVLV
SUREDEO\WRRQDUURZ$UWLFOH,,,DGGUHVVHVFXOWXUHVSHFLILFGLIIHUHQFHVFRQFHUQLQJWKH
SHUFHSWLRQ RI DIIHFWLYH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQW GHVLJQV FRPSDULQJ SDUWLFLSDQW
VDPSOHV IURP &KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV )LQDOO\ $UWLFOH ,9 IRFXVHV RQ
WKHJHQHUDOSHUFHSWLRQRIJOREDOO\PDQXIDFWXUHGEUDQGHGSURGXFWVDQGKLJKOLJKWVWKH
LPSRUWDQFH RI SDUWLFLSDQWV VXEMHFWLYH EUDQG DZDUHQHVV SHUFHSWLRQV WKDW HYHQ OLNHO\
RXWZHLJK WKH KLJKO\ YDULDEOH LPSRUWDQFH RI FRXQWU\ RI RULJLQ LQIRUPDWLRQ ZKHQ LW
FRPHVWRWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIWKHFRQVXPHUVZLOOLQJQHVVWRSXUFKDVH

.XU]IDVVXQJ
'HVLJQLVWHLQZHVHQWOLFKHU7UHLEHUIUGHQ0DUNWXQG9HUNDXIVHUIROJYRQ3URGXNWHQ
ZLHVLFKLQWXLWLYDXVGHU%HWUDFKWXQJYHUVFKLHGHQHU(UIROJVJWHUHUNHQQHQOlVVWVHLHQ
GLHVQXQ3URGXNWHDXV GHUVLFKPRPHQWDQVWDUNHQWZLFNHOQGHQ(OHNWURQLNVSDUWHHKHU
NODVVLVFKHQ,QGXVWULHQZLHGHU$XWRPRELOEUDQFKHRGHUJHPHLQKLQVFKRQIDVWDOV]HLWORV
EHWUDFKWHWH *WHU DXV GHU 0|EHOLQGXVWULH 6R PDJ HV IDVW YHUZXQGHUOLFK HUVFKHLQHQ
GDVVGDV3URGXNWGHVLJQHUVWLQGHQOHW]WHQ-DKUHQYHUVWlUNWH%HWUDFKWXQJYRQ6HLWHQGHU
0DUNHWLQJIRUVFKXQJ HUIlKUW JOHLFKZRKO ]HLFKQHW VLFK LQ HUVWHQ 3XEOLNDWLRQHQ HLQ
VSDQQHQGHVXQGZLFKWLJHV)RUVFKXQJVIHOGDE
'LH LQ GHU YRUOLHJHQGHQ $UEHLW JHVDPPHOWHQ $UWLNHO OHLVWHQ LKUHQ %HLWUDJ GDV
EHVWHKHQGH :LVVHQ ]XU 3HU]HSWLRQ YRQ 3URGXNWGHVLJQ DXV .RQVXPHQWHQVLFKW LQ
YHUVFKLHGHQHQ $VSHNWHQ ]X HUZHLWHUQ XQG OHQNHQ PLWXQWHU GHQ %OLFN DXFK DXI
DQJUHQ]HQGH )RUVFKXQJVJHELHWH 'LH /LWHUDWXU ]XU :DKUQHKPXQJ YRQ DQWKURSR
PRUSKHQ DOVR VXEMHNWLY PHQVFKHQlKQOLFKHQ 3URGXNWGHVLJQV DP %HLVSLHO YRQ
$XWRPRELOIURQWHQ VWHOOW KLHU HLQHQ ZHVHQWOLFKHQ $XVJDQJVSXQNW GHU )RUVFKXQJV
EHPKXQJHQGDU
(LQH HUVWH %HVWUHEXQJ EHVWDQG GDULQ ]X ]HLJHQ GDVV DIIHNWEHODGHQH DQWKURSRPRUSKH
3URGXNWGHVLJQV QLFKW QXU VXEMHNWLY DOV PHQVFKHQlKQOLFK ZDKUJHQRPPHQ ZHUGHQ XQG
DIIHNWLYH 5HJXQJHQ ZLH EHL GHU :DKUQHKPXQJ PHQVFKOLFKHU *HVLFKWHU KHUYRUUXIHQ
VRQGHUQDXFK]XLPSOL]LWHQ9HUKDOWHQVUHDNWLRQHQEHLP%HWUDFKWHUIKUHQ'LHVHODVVHQ
VLFK LP 6LQQH YRQ (YROXWLRQVWKHRULHQ HUNOlUHQ  HLQH (UNHQQWQLV ZHOFKH IU
3URGXNWPDQDJHU XQG 'HVLJQHU LQ LKUHU 6XFKH QDFK DQVSUHFKHQGHP XQG KHUDXV
VWHFKHQGHP'HVLJQYRQ%HGHXWXQJLVW'LHVH8QWHUVXFKXQJZXUGHPLW+LOIHYRQ(\H
7UDFNLQJ([SHULPHQWHQDQDQWKURSRPRUSKHQ$XWRIURQWHQGXUFKJHIKUWXQGZlKUHQG
$UWLNHO,HLQHPHWKRGRORJLVFKH(UZHLWHUXQJEHVWHKHQGHU$XVZHUWHWHFKQLNHQYRUVWHOOW
KDQGHOW$UWLNHO,,GHQJHVSDQQWHQLQKDOWOLFKHQ5DKPHQDE
$NWXHOOH %HWUDFKWXQJHQ ]XP 3URGXNWGHVLJQ EHVFKUlQNHQ VLFK QRFK LP :HVHQWOLFKHQ
DXI GHQ ZHVWOLFKHQ .XOWXUNUHLV DEHU LQ =HLWHQ JOREDOLVLHUWHU 0lUNWH LVW GLHV ZRKO ]X
HQJ JHIDVVW $UWLNHO ,,, EHIDVVW VLFK GDKHU PLW VSH]LILVFKHQ 8QWHUVFKLHGHQ LQ GHU
:DKUQHKPXQJYRQ)DKU]HXJIURQWHQGHVLJQVDQKDQGYRQ3UREDQGHQJUXSSHQDXV&KLQD
'HXWVFKODQG XQG GHQ 9HUHLQLJWHQ 6WDDWHQ $UWLNHO ,9 ]LHOW DXI GLH EHUJHRUGQHWH
:DKUQHKPXQJ YRQ JOREDO JHIHUWLJWHQ 0DUNHQSURGXNWHQ XQG ZlJW GLH %HGHXWXQJ
VXEMHNWLYHU0DUNHQEHNDQQWKHLWPLWGHUYRQ&RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ,QIRUPDWLRQHQDE


Article I
Purucker, C., Landwehr, J. R., Sprott, D. E., & Herrmann, A. (in press). Clustered
Insights: Improving Eye Tracking Data Analysis Using Scan Statistics.
International Journal of Market Research.
The definitive version of this paper is available at http://www.ijmr.com/




&OXVWHUHG,QVLJKWV
,PSURYLQJ(\H7UDFNLQJ'DWD$QDO\VLV8VLQJ6FDQ
6WDWLVWLFV




&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU
-DQ5/DQGZHKU
'DYLG(6SURWW
$QGUHDV+HUUPDQQ


&KULVWLDQ 3XUXFNHU LV 'RFWRUDO &DQGLGDWH RI 0DUNHWLQJ &HQWHU IRU &XVWRPHU
,QVLJKW8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU#XQLVJFK
-DQ 5 /DQGZHKU LV 3URIHVVRU RI 0DUNHWLQJ &KDLU IRU 3URGXFW 0DQDJHPHQW DQG
0DUNHWLQJ &RPPXQLFDWLRQV *RHWKH 8QLYHUVLW\ )UDQNIXUW *HUPDQ\
/DQGZHKU#ZLZLXQLIUDQNIXUWGH
'DYLG(6SURWWLV3URIHVVRURI0DUNHWLQJ&ROOHJHRI%XVLQHVV:DVKLQJWRQ6WDWH
8QLYHUVLW\3XOOPDQ86$'6SURWW#ZVXHGX
$QGUHDV +HUUPDQQ LV 3URIHVVRU RI 0DUNHWLQJ &HQWHU IRU &XVWRPHU ,QVLJKW
8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG$QGUHDV+HUUPDQQ#XQLVJFK

$UWLFOH,

$EVWUDFW
$QDO\VLV RI H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD LQ PDUNHWLQJ UHVHDUFK KDV WUDGLWLRQDOO\ UHOLHG XSRQ
UHJLRQV RI LQWHUHVW 52,V PHWKRGRORJ\ RU WKH XVH RI KHDWPDSV &OHDU GLVDGYDQWDJHV
H[LVW IRU ERWK PHWKRGV $GGUHVVLQJ WKLV JDS WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK DSSOLHV
VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ VWDWLVWLFV WR WKH DQDO\VLV DQG YLVXDOL]DWLRQ RI H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD
5HVXOWVRIDVDPSOHH[SHULPHQWXVLQJDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIDFHVGHPRQVWUDWHVHYHUDO
DGYDQWDJHV SURYLGHG E\ WKH QHZ PHWKRG ,Q FRQWUDVW WR WUDGLWLRQDO DSSURDFKHV VFDQ
VWDWLVWLFV SURYLGH D PHDQV WR VFDQ H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD DXWRPDWLFDOO\ LQ VSDFH DQG WLPH
ZLWK GLIIHULQJ JD]H FOXVWHUV ZLWK UHVXOWV DEOH WR EH FRPSUHKHQVLYHO\ YLVXDOL]HG DQG
VWDWLVWLFDOO\DVVHVVHG

.H\ZRUGV(\H7UDFNLQJ6SDWLRWHPSRUDO6FDQ6WDWLVWLF5HJLRQVRI,QWHUHVW+HDWPDS
$QWKURSRPRUSKLVP&DU'HVLJQ




$UWLFOH,

,QWURGXFWLRQ
0DUNHWLQJUHVHDUFKXVLQJH\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGVLVEURDG5HFHQWJURZWKLQWKHXVHRI
WKHVH PHWKRGV KDV EHHQ GULYHQ E\ WUHPHQGRXV WHFKQRORJLFDO DGYDQFHPHQWV LQ H\H
WUDFNLQJ HTXLSPHQW ZLWK UHVXOWDQW DGRSWLRQ E\ D ZLGH UDQJH RI UHVHDUFKHUV DQG
SUDFWLWLRQHUV 'XFKRZVNL  9DULRXV PHWKRGV KDYH EHHQ XVHG WR DQDO\]H H\H
WUDFNLQJ GDWD EXW PRVW SURFHGXUHV UHO\ XSRQ WUDGLWLRQDO H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWULFV
'XFKRZVNLVXFKDVWKHQXPEHURIIL[DWLRQVFDOFXODWHGIRUUHJLRQVRILQWHUHVW
52,VWKDWDUHVXSHULPSRVHGRQWKHVWLPXOXV
$OWKRXJKRIWHQXVHGLQPDUNHWLQJUHVHDUFKWKHUHDUHYDULRXVFRQFHUQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWK
WKHXVHRI52,VWKDWPXVWEHFRQVLGHUHG,QSDUWLFXODU52,VPXVWEHGHILQHGDSULRUL
ZKLFK RIWHQ SURYHV GLIILFXOW $V VXFK VSHFLILFDWLRQ RI 52,V FDQ RIWHQ EH DUELWUDU\
DQGPD\QRWEHGLUHFWO\JURXQGHGLQWKHOLWHUDWXUH)XUWKHUVXEUHJLRQVLQFOXGHGZLWKLQ
DQ52,PLJKWDGGQRLVHWRWKHJD]HPHDVXUHVDFTXLUHGFI+HOOHU6WDQOH\<HNXWLHOL
5XELQ %HQMDPLQL2IJUHDWHUFRQFHUQLVWKDWWKH52,PLJKWQRWDFFRXQWIRU
ZKDW ZDV DFWXDOO\ SHUFHLYHG E\ WKH YLHZHU UDWKHU 52,V PHUHO\ FDSWXUH ZKHWKHU DQ
REVHUYHU ORRNV GLUHFWO\ DW WKH ORFDWLRQ ZKHUH WKH H[SHULPHQWHU H[SHFWV KLP RU KHU WR
ORRN :KLOH RQH DSSURDFK  WKH KHDWPDS WHFKQLTXH HJ 3RPSOXQ 5LWWHU 
9HOLFKNRYVN\  :RRGLQJ   KDV EHHQ GHYHORSHG WR DGGUHVV WKLV ODWWHU
FRQFHUQWKHODFNRIDVWDWLVWLFDOFULWHULRQIRUKHDWPDSVKDVUHGXFHGWKHXVHRIWKHWRRO
WRLOOXVWUDWLYHSXUSRVHVLQUHVHDUFK
7KH DLP RI WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK LV WR GHPRQVWUDWH VRPH RI WKH FULWLFDO FRQFHUQV ZLWK
52,EDVHG PHWKRGV DQG WR GHYHORS D QHZ DSSURDFK WKDW DOORZV IRU D GDWDGULYHQ
LGHQWLILFDWLRQRIH\HWUDFNLQJSRLQWFOXVWHUVLQVSDFHDQGWLPH7KLVQHZPHWKRGRIIHUV
K\SRWKHVHVWHVWLQJDQGDXQLTXHDSSURDFKIRUGDWDYLVXDOL]DWLRQ2XUSDSHUEHJLQVZLWK
D VKRUW UHYLHZ RI UHFHQW UHVHDUFK LQ PDUNHWLQJ WKDW KDV HPSOR\HG H\H WUDFNLQJ
PHWKRGRORJ\1H[WDUHYLHZRIWUDGLWLRQDOWHFKQLTXHVIRUDQDO\]LQJH\HWUDFNLQJGDWD
XVLQJ52,VLVSURYLGHGDORQJZLWKDGLVFXVVLRQRIPHWKRGRORJLFDOFRQFHUQVZLWKVXFK
DSSURDFKHV$IWHULQWURGXFLQJDQHZDQDO\WLFDOPHWKRGIRUH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDEDVHGRQ
VSDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFVDQH[SHULPHQWLVUHSRUWHGWKDWXVHVDXWRPRELOHFDUIDFH
VWLPXOLWRFRPSDUH52,EDVHGDQDO\VLVDQGVFDQVWDWLVWLFV,PSOLFDWLRQVRIRXUUHVHDUFK
IRUH\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGRORJ\DQGSURGXFWGHVLJQDUHSURYLGHG



$UWLFOH,

7KHRUHWLFDOEDFNJURXQG
(\HWUDFNLQJLQPDUNHWLQJ
(\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGRORJ\KDVEHHQHPSOR\HGLQPDUNHWLQJUHVHDUFKDQGUHODWHGILHOGV
XVLQJVWLPXOLUDQJLQJIURPSDFNDJLQJDQGWKHGHVLJQRISURGXFWODEHOVWRDGYHUWLVLQJLQ
YDULRXV IRUPV RI PHGLD $Q RYHUYLHZ RQ H\H WUDFNLQJ UHVHDUFK LQ UHOHYDQW WRSWLHU
PDUNHWLQJ MRXUQDOV LV SURYLGHG LQ 7DEOH  1XPHURXV ZRUNV KDYH EHHQ SXEOLVKHG
PDQ\ ZLWK D VWURQJ SUDFWLFDO IRFXV )RU H[DPSOH %RMNR *DGG\ /HZ DQG 4XLQQ
XVHGH\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGVWRH[DPLQHFRQVXPHUVYLVXDOJD]HEHKDYLRUZKHQ
VHOHFWLQJSURGXFWVZLWKGLIIHUHQWGUXJODEHOV6LPLODUO\%L[%HOOR$XUDV5DQJHUDQG
/DSLQVNL  HPSOR\HG H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD WR H[DPLQH YLHZLQJ WLPH VSHQW RQ
ZDUQLQJ VWDWHPHQWV DQG RWKHU UHJLRQV RI GUXJ SDFNDJLQJ (\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRGV KDYH
DOVR EHHQ HPSOR\HG LQ RQOLQH PDUNHWLQJ WR DGGUHVV RSWLPL]DWLRQ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ
SODFHPHQWLQVHDUFKHQJLQHV&XWUHOO *XDQSUHGLFWLRQRIVDOLHQWDUHDVLQZHE
SDJHV%XVFKHU&XWUHOO 0RUULV<HVLODGD-D\6WHYHQV +DUSHUDQG
WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI EDQQHU DGV E\ LQYHVWLJDWLQJ WKH EDQQHU EOLQGQHVV SKHQRPHQRQ
+HUYHW *XpUDUG 7UHPEOD\  &KWRXURX  2WKHU UHFHQWO\ SXEOLVKHG ZRUN KDV
GHPRQVWUDWHGWKHEHQHILWVIURPFRPELQLQJH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDZLWKHVWDEOLVKHGPHDVXUHV
LQPDUNHWLQJDVLQWKHFDVHRIFKRLFHWDVNV0HLQHU 'HFNHU6KDR/\H 
5XQGOH7KLHOH  0RUHRYHU ZRUN SUHVHQWHG LQ LQGXVWU\ VHWWLQJV VXFK DV WKH
(620$5 FRQIHUHQFHV LOOXVWUDWHV WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI H\H WUDFNLQJ LQ RWKHU
FRQWH[WV OLNH VKHOI WHVWLQJ +DPDHNHUV  /DDQ  DQG SODFHPHQW RI
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV LQ UHDOOLIH VLWXDWLRQV 7KRPDV6PLWK  %DUQHWW  VXJJHVWLQJ D
ZLGHVSUHDG XVH RI H\H WUDFNLQJ WHFKQRORJLHV LQ SURSULHWDU\ UHVHDUFK DV ZHOO 2YHUDOO
WKHUH LV D VWURQJ WUDGLWLRQ DQG LQFUHDVLQJ LQWHUHVW RI XVLQJ H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRGV WR
HQKDQFHRXUXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIYDULRXVPDUNHWLQJWRSLFV

7UDGLWLRQDOH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDDQDO\VLVZLWKUHJLRQVRILQWHUHVW
7KH PRVW FRPPRQ H\H WUDFNLQJ DQDO\VLV WHFKQLTXHV DUH EDVHG RQ UHJLRQV RI LQWHUHVW
'XFKRZVNL7KHZLGHVSUHDGXVHRI52,VLVFOHDUO\LOOXVWUDWHGLQ7DEOHZLWK
QHDUO\ DOO VWXGLHV XVLQJ WKHVH H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRGV 7KLV VLWXDWLRQ LV QRW VXUSULVLQJ
VLQFH WKH XVH RI 52,V LV VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG DQG 52, DQDO\VLV LV W\SLFDOO\ DYDLODEOH LQ
VWDQGDUGVRIWZDUHSDFNDJHV


$UWLFOH,

52,EDVHG PHWKRGV DUH XVHG IRU DQDO\]LQJ SDWWHUQV LQ H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD UHJDUGLQJ
VSHFLILFDUHDVRIDVWLPXOXVVXFKDVWKHWRWDOJD]HGXUDWLRQRQDVSHFLILFHOHPHQWRIWKH
DGYHUWLVHPHQW FI 3LHWHUV  :HGHO  ,Q 52, DQDO\VLV JHRPHWULF IRUPV DUH
GHILQHG E\ WKH H[SHULPHQWHU EDVHG RQ WKHRUHWLFDO FRQVLGHUDWLRQV DQG GUDZQ DURXQG
VSHFLILF SDUWV RI D YLVXDO VWLPXOXV FI 'XFKRZVNL  &ODVVLFDO H\H WUDFNLQJ
PHWULFVHJWKHWRWDOJD]HGXUDWLRQDUHWKHQFDOFXODWHGIURPWKHVHUHJLRQVDQGPRVW
RIWHQ WHVWHG DJDLQVW HDFK RWKHU E\ XVLQJ FRPSOH[ VWDWLVWLFDO PRGHOV 7KH VKDSHV RI
52,V DUH RIWHQ UHFWDQJOHV WKDW DUH GUDZQ HLWKHU WLJKWO\ FI &KDQGRQ +XWFKLQVRQ
%UDGORZ <RXQJRUORRVHO\FI%UDVHO *LSVDURXQGWKHYLVXDODUHDV
RI LQWHUHVW :KLOH SULRU UHVHDUFK KDV RIWHQ UHOLHG XSRQ FODVVLFDO H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWULFV
EDVHG RQ 52,V WKHUH DUH DW OHDVW WKUHH OLPLWDWLRQV WKDW UHVHDUFKHUV QHHG WR FRQVLGHU
ZKHQXVLQJWKHVHWRROV
)LUVW GDWD TXDOLW\ LV FORVHO\ UHODWHG WR KRZ 52,V DUH GHILQHG DQG WKHUHIRUH KLJKO\
GHSHQGHQWXSRQWKHUHVHDUFKHUVGHILQLWLRQRIWKHP)RUH[DPSOHDFHUWDLQ52,PLJKW
FRQVLVWRIVXEUHJLRQVWKDWEHKDYHLQRSSRVLQJPDQQHUVWRWKHRYHUDOO52,EXWUHPDLQ
XQQRWLFHG 0RUHRYHU VXFK DUHDV ZLWKLQ WKH 52, XQUHODWHG WR WKH H[SHULPHQWDO
PDQLSXODWLRQPLJKWDGGQRLVHWRWKHXQGHUO\LQJVLJQDOFI+HOOHUHWDO7KXV
PLVVSHFLILFDWLRQDQGRUYDULDELOLW\LQGHILQLQJ52,VFOHDUO\WKUHDWHQVWKHUHOLDELOLW\DQG
JHQHUDOL]DELOLW\ RI H\H WUDFNLQJ UHVXOWV (YHQ ZRUVH WKH H[DFW GHILQLWLRQ RI WKH 52,V
UHPDLQV UDWKHU XQVSHFLILHG LQ PRVW DFDGHPLF ZRUNV 7KH SDUWLFXODU IRUP RI DQ 52,
HJWKHZLGWKDQGDQ\SRWHQWLDORYHUODSZLWKRWKHU52,VWKHQFDQRQO\EHJXHVVHG
E\ WKHUHDGHU6WLOOIRUDUHOLDEOHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIUHSRUWHGHIIHFWVDQGUHSOLFDWLRQE\
RWKHUUHVHDUFKHUVWKLVW\SHRINQRZOHGJHLVQHFHVVDU\
$ VHFRQG FRQFHUQ ZLWK 52, DQDO\VLV LQYROYHV KRZ UHFRUGHG QRJD]H SRLQWV DUH
KDQGOHG:KLOHWUDGLWLRQDO52,PHWKRGVGRQRWFRQVLGHUVXFKGDWDSRLQWVRQHFDQQRW
DVVXPH WKDW WKH YLHZHU GLG QRW REVHUYH WKH REMHFW VLPSO\ EHFDXVH QRJD]H SRLQW ZDV
UHFRUGHG )RU H[DPSOH LQ RQH DGYHUWLVLQJ VWXG\ SDUWLFLSDQWV UHPHPEHUHG
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV WKDW WKH\ KDG QRW DFWLYHO\ ORRNHG DW .XLVPD 6LPROD 8XVLWDOR 
g|UQLZKLFKVXJJHVWVWKDWSHULSKHUDOSHUFHSWLRQPHFKDQLVPVDUHDOVRDWZRUN
LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK SK\VLFDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH KXPDQ H\H FI ,UZLQ  7KH
SXUHYLFLQLW\RIDJD]HSRLQWWRDQ52,PLJKWWKXVEHVXIILFLHQW7KHXVHRI52,VDVD
GHFLVLRQ FULWHULRQ LQ H\H WUDFNLQJ UHVHDUFK KRZHYHU GRHV QRW DFFRXQW IRU WKLV DQG
PLJKW OHDG WR IDOVH FRQFOXVLRQV 6XFK D IRFDO DUHD ELDV LV HYHQ PRUH OLNHO\ WR RFFXU
ZKHQ52,VDUHWLJKWO\ILWWHGDURXQGDVSHFLILFVWLPXOXVIHDWXUH


%UDQGSLFWXUH
WH[WRYHUDOODG

3LHWHUV:HGHODQG%DWUD (IIHFWVRIIRUPVRIYLVXDO
-0
FRPSOH[LW\LQDGVRQDWWHQWLRQ

,QIRUPDWLRQSURFHVVLQJGXULQJ
OHDUQLQJRIUHDOO\QHZSURGXFWV

)HLHUHLVHQ:RQJDQG
%URGHULFN-3,0



(IIHFWRILQYROYHPHQWDQGSLFWXUH ([SHULPHQWDO
SRVLWLRQLQDGVRQDWWHQWLRQ
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQIL[DWLRQVRQ 5HDOPDJD]LQH
DGVDQGPHPRU\IRUPDWLRQ
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

*DUFtD3RQVRGDDQG
(VWHEDUDQ]$&5

:HGHODQG3LHWHUV
06

8QVSHFLILHG
RYHUODS

3LFWRULDOHOHPHQWV 8QVSHFLILHG
%UDQGSLFWXUH
WH[W

0HDQJD]HGXUDWLRQ

$WWHQWLRQIRFXVRQFHQWUDOVFUHHQ
UHJLRQEHWWHUPHPRUL]DWLRQ

)L[DWLRQIUHTXHQFLHV

%RWWRPXSSURFHVVHVDFFRXQWIRU
RIWKHEUDQGVDOLHQFH

1HJDWLYHELQRPLDO
KLHUDUFKLFDOPRGHO

)L[DWLRQVRQEUDQGDQGSLFWXUH
IDFLOLWDWHEUDQGPHPRU\

,QWHUDFWLRQRISRVLWLRQDQG
LQYROYHPHQWRQDWWHQWLRQ

0XOWLYDULDWH
5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWH[WVL]HDQG
PXOWLOHYHOUHJUHVVLRQ DWWHQWLRQWRDGDWWHQWLRQWUDQVIHU

0XOWLYDULDWHKLHUDUFK 9LHZHUJRDOVDIIHFWDWWHQWLRQ
UHJUHVVLRQ%D\HVLDQ GLVWULEXWLRQRQUHOHYDQWDGHOHPHQWV

([WHQGHG+LGGHQ
0DUNRYPRGHO

0HDQIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ $129$V
QXPEHURIIL[DWLRQV

7RWDOJD]HGXUDWLRQ
VHOHFWLRQ

7RWDOJD]HGXUDWLRQ
VHOHFWLRQ

/RFDWLRQVRIIL[DWLRQV

1XPEHURIIL[DWLRQV 3HDUVRQSURGXFW
,QFUHDVHLQDWWHQWLRQLQGLFDWHV
7RWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ PRPHQWFRUUHODWLRQV FRPSUHKHQVLRQRUGLIILFXOWLHV

1XPEHURIJD]HSRLQWV 5HSHDWHGPHDVXUHV
GHYLDWLRQ
$129$V

&KDUDFWHUVSDFLQJDIIHFWVSHULSKHUDO
DWWHQWLRQ

0HGLDWLRQDQDO\VHV (\HWUDFNLQJLPSURYHVVDOHV
FODVVLFDODQG%D\HV SUHGLFWLRQRSWLPL]DWLRQRIDWWHQWLRQ

1RGLUHFWUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ
DWWHQWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQ

&HQWUDOEUDQGSRVLWLRQIDFLOLWDWHV
DYRLGDQFHEUDQGSXOVHVGHFUHDVH

$&5 $GYDQFHVLQ&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK,-50 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI5HVHDUFKLQ0DUNHWLQJ-$ -RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ-$5 -RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ5HVHDUFK-&5 -RXUQDORI&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK

-,0 -RXUQDORI,QWHUDFWLYH0DUNHWLQJ-0 -RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ-05 -RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ5HVHDUFK-3,0 -RXUQDORI3URGXFW,QQRYDWLRQ0DQDJHPHQW06 0DUNHWLQJ6FLHQFH

5HDOPDJD]LQH
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

8QVSHFLILHG
RYHUODS

(IIHFWVRINH\DGHOHPHQWVRQ
DWWHQWLRQFDSWXUH

3LHWHUVDQG:HGHO
-0

%UDQGSLFWXUH
WH[WRYHUDOODG

%UDQGSLFWXUH
8QVSHFLILHG
KHDGOLQHWH[WHWF

(IIHFWVRISURFHVVLQJJRDOVRQ
DWWHQWLRQZKHQYLHZLQJDGV

3LHWHUVDQG:HGHO
-&5

QD

8QVSHFLILHG

*ULGRYHUOD\

QD

5HDOPDJD]LQH
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

'\QDPLFSURELW
PRGHO

0XOWLYDULDWH
)HDWXUHFRPSOH[LW\ORZHUVDWWHQWLRQ
PXOWLOHYHOUHJUHVVLRQ GHVLJQFRPSOH[LW\HOHYDWHVDWWHQWLRQ

1RWLFHUHH[DPLQDWLRQ /RJLVWLFUHJUHVVLRQ
RI52,
ZLWKUDQGRPHIIHFW

6SDWLDOYDULDWLRQDW
FHUWDLQWLPHIUDPH

0HDQJD]HGXUDWLRQ

0XOWLSOHUHJUHVVLRQ ,QWHUDFWLRQRIDQLPDWLRQDQGIRUPDW
$129$V
DGUHFRJQLWLRQZLWKRXWGLUHFWJD]HV

6WDWLVWLFV
0DLQUHVXOWV
5DQGRPVWRSSHGVXP $GOD\RXWDIIHFWVUHFRJQLWLRQVWURQJ
PRGHO%D\HVLDQ
IRFXVRQPRGHOGHGXFWLRQ

8QVSHFLILHG
0HDQIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ $129$V
OLNHO\UHFWDQJXODU QXPEHURIIL[DWLRQV

8QVSHFLILHG

3DFNDJHDQG
SULFHLQFOXGHG

QD

8QVSHFLILHG
RYHUODS

8QVSHFLILHG
5HODWLYHDQGPHDQ
OLNHO\UHFWDQJXODU IL[DWLRQIUHTXHQFLHV

(\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGRORJ\
52,GHILQLWLRQ
0HWULFV
8QVSHFLILHG
1XPEHURIIL[DWLRQV
WRWDOJD]HGXUDWLRQ

9DQGHU/DQV3LHWHUVDQG 'HWHUPLQDWLRQRIEUDQGVDOLHQFHLQ 6XSHUPDUNHWVKHOI

:HGHO06
VXSHUPDUNHWV
GLDJUDPV

([SHULPHQWDOSULQW $GHOHPHQWV
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

2YHUDOOFHQWUDO
UHJLRQEUDQG

$WWHQWLRQWR79DGVDQGSRVLWLRQ
ZKLOHIDVWIRUZDUGLQJ

%UDVHODQG*LSV
-0

5HDO79
FRPPHUFLDOV

5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQIRQWOD\RXW :HEVLWHVZLWKWH[WV $GYHUWLVHPHQWV

DQGSHULSKHUDODGIL[DWLRQV
DQGDGYHUWLVHPHQWV WH[W

%DUDJJLROLDQG%UDVHO
$&5

)HDWXUHDGV

(IIHFWRIIHDWXUHDGFKDUDFWHULVWLFV 5HDOIHDWXUH
RQDWWHQWLRQVDOHV
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

3URGXFWV

=KDQJ:HGHODQG
3LHWHUV-05

6XSHUPDUNHWVKHOI
GLDJUDPV

,PSDFWRIEUDQGLQJDQGFXVWRPHU 5HDOH[SHULPHQWDO QD

DWWHQWLRQRQ79DGDYRLGDQFH
79FRPPHUFLDOV

&KDQGRQHWDO-0 (IIHFWRILQDQGRXWRIVWRUH
IDFWRUVRQDWWHQWLRQHYDOXDWLRQ

7HL[HLUD:HGHODQG
3LHWHUV06

$UHDVZLWK
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

.XLVPDHWDO-,0 ,PSDFWRIDQLPDWLRQDQGIRUPDWLQ ([SHULPHQWDO

RQOLQHDGVRQDWWHQWLRQPHPRU\
ZHEVLWHVZLWKDGV
5HDOPDJD]LQH
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

52,V
%UDQGSLFWXUH
WH[W

$XWKRUV\HDUMRXUQDO 7RSLF

6WLPXOXVPDWHULDO
$ULEDUJ3LHWHUVDQG
5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQDWWHQWLRQDQG 5HDOPDJD]LQH
:HGHO-05
UHFRJQLWLRQRIDGV
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

$UWLFOH,

7DEOH
2YHUYLHZRIPDUNHWLQJSDSHUVXVLQJH\HWUDFNLQJWHFKQRORJ\

(IIHFWRIDGFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRQ
FRQVXPHULQIRUPDWLRQSURFHVVLQJ

,PSDFWRIWLPHSUHVVXUHDQG
PRWLYDWLRQRQDWWHQWLRQFKRLFHV

(IIHFWVRISK\VLFDODGSURSHUWLHV
RQDWWHQWLRQ

(IIHFWVRIUHSHDWHGDGSUHVHQWDWLRQ ([SHULPHQWDOUHDO
RQDWWHQWLRQ
DGVIRUSURGXFWV

$GROHVFHQWV
DWWHQWLRQWRZDUGV
ZDUQLQJVRQDGVIRUFLJDUHWWHV

&KRLFHSURFHVVIRUFRQVXPHU
JRRGVVXEMHFWWRLQYHVWLJDWLRQ

/RKVH-$

3LHWHUV:DUORSDQG
+DUWRJ$&5



5RVEHUJHQ3LHWHUVDQG
:HGHO-&5

3LHWHUV5RVEHUJHQDQG
:HGHO-05

.UXJPDQHWDO
-$5

5XVVRDQG/HFOHUF
-&5

+HDGOLQHSLFWXUH 8QVSHFLILHG
WH[WSDFNVKRW
RYHUODS

+HDGOLQHSLFWXUH 8QVSHFLILHG
WH[WSDFNVKRW

'LVVLPLODUUHF
WDQJOHVRYHUODS

QD

QD

)L[DWLRQVRQEUDQGDQGSLFWXUH
IDFLOLWDWHEUDQGPHPRU\

$129$V
0$129$&KL

5HSHWLWLRQGHFUHDVHVDWWHQWLRQVFDQ
SDWKVWD\VXQDIIHFWHG

1HVWHGJDPPDDQG
KHWHURJHQHRXV

/DWHQWFODVV
UHJUHVVLRQ

/RFDWLRQVRIIL[DWLRQV $129$V
GXUDWLRQVDQGQXPEHUV

7RWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ $129$V
SHUFHQWDJHDWWHQGLQJ

0HDQJD]HGXUDWLRQ

0HDQJD]HGXUDWLRQ

0HDQIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ $129$V
QXPEHURIVDFFDGHV
0$129$

&KRLFHSURFHVVZLWKWKUHHVWDJHV
LGHQWLILHG

5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQUHFDOODQGH\H
WUDFNLQJPHDVXUHV

$WWHQWLRQDOGHFUHPHQWIRUUHSHDWHG
DGSUHVHQWDWLRQVWDEOHVFDQSDWKV

*URXSVRIFXVWRPHUVZLWKGLVWLQFW
SDWWHUQVRIDWWHQWLRQLGHQWLILHG

6WURQJUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQ
DWWHQWLRQDQGFKRLFHHIIHFWRIWLPH

&KRVHQDGVZHUHORRNHGDWORQJHU
HIIHFWRIVL]HDQGFRORURQDWWHQWLRQ

7RWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ 0$129$UHSHDWHG ,QFRQFOXVLYHUHVXOWVFDOOIRUIXUWKHU

SHUFHQWDJHDWWHQGLQJ
PHDVXUHV$129$V UHVHDUFK

7RWDOJD]HGXUDWLRQ
VNLSSHGHOHPHQWV

$&5 $GYDQFHVLQ&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK,-50 ,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI5HVHDUFKLQ0DUNHWLQJ-$ -RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ-$5 -RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ5HVHDUFK-&5 -RXUQDORI&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK

-,0 -RXUQDORI,QWHUDFWLYH0DUNHWLQJ-0 -RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ-05 -RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ5HVHDUFK-3,0 -RXUQDORI3URGXFW,QQRYDWLRQ0DQDJHPHQW06 0DUNHWLQJ6FLHQFH

3K\VLFDOYDULHG
VKHOIGLVSOD\V

1HJDWLYHELQRPLDO
KLHUDUFKLFDOPRGHO

0DLQUHVXOWV
,QWHUDFWLRQRISRVLWLRQDQG
LQYROYHPHQWRQDWWHQWLRQ

0HDQIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ $129$FRQGLWLRQDO &KRVHQEUDQGVZHUHORRNHGDW

QXPEHURIVDFFDGHV
ORJLW
ORQJHUSUHVVXUHPRWLYDWLRQDIIHFW

)L[DWLRQIUHTXHQFLHV

8QVSHFLILHG
0HDQIL[DWLRQQXPEHU 0$129$
OLNHO\UHFWDQJXODU WRWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ

3ULQWDGYHUWLVHPHQWV :DUQLQJ
8QVSHFLILHG
ZLWKVPDOOFKDQJHV PHVVDJHVRYHUDOO

([SHULPHQWDO
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

([SHULPHQWDOFKRLFH %UDQGSLFWXUH
VHWVZLWKJRRGV
LQJUHGLHQWV

([SHULPHQWDO\HOORZ 'LVSOD\DGV
SDJHDGV
OLVWLQJV

:DUQLQJ
8QVSHFLILHG
PHVVDJHVRYHUDOO

$GROHVFHQWV
DWWHQWLRQWRZDUGV
ZDUQLQJVRQDGVIRUOHJDOGUXJV

)R[HWDO-$

5HDOSULQW
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

([SHULPHQWDOSULQW +HDGOLQHSLFWXUH 8QVSHFLILHG

DGYHUWLVHPHQWV
WH[WSDFNVKRW

,PSDFWRIUHSHWLWLRQRIDGVDQG
PRWLYDWLRQRQDWWHQWLRQ

3LHWHUV5RVEHUJHQDQG
+DUWRJ$&5

'LVVLPLODUUHF
WDQJOHVRYHUODS

([SHULPHQWDOFKRLFH %UDQGSLFWXUH
VHWVZLWKJRRGV
LQJUHGLHQWV

3LHWHUVDQG:DUORS ,PSDFWRIWLPHSUHVVXUHDQG
,-50
PRWLYDWLRQRQDWWHQWLRQFKRLFHV

8QVSHFLILHG
RYHUODS

%UDQGSLFWXUH
WH[W

:HGHODQG3LHWHUV
06

5HODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQIL[DWLRQVRQ 5HDOPDJD]LQH
DGVDQGPHPRU\IRUPDWLRQ
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

(\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGRORJ\
52,V
52,GHILQLWLRQ
0HWULFV
6WDWLVWLFV
3LFWRULDOHOHPHQWV 8QVSHFLILHG
0HDQIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ $129$V
QXPEHURIIL[DWLRQV

$XWKRUV<HDU-RXUQDO 7RSLF

6WLPXOXVPDWHULDO
*DUFtD3RQVRGDDQG
(IIHFWRILQYROYHPHQWDQGSLFWXUH ([SHULPHQWDO
(VWHEDUDQ]$&5 SRVLWLRQLQDGVRQDWWHQWLRQ
DGYHUWLVHPHQWV

$UWLFOH,

7DEOH
FRQWLQXHG

$UWLFOH,

7KHWKLUGDQGSHUKDSVPRVWLPSRUWDQWOLPLWDWLRQRI52,DQDO\VLVLVWKDWLWVHIIHFWVFDQ
RQO\ EH GLVFRYHUHG LI WKH\ KDYH EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ K\SRWKHVL]HG E\ WKH UHVHDUFKHU
8QH[SHFWHG HIIHFWV DUH XQOLNHO\ WR EH LGHQWLILHG XQOHVV WKH\ H[LVW ZLWKLQ WKH SUH
GHWHUPLQHG 52, :KLOH DW ILUVW JODQFH WKLV PD\ QRW VHHP D OLPLWDWLRQ WKHUH LV OLWWOH
GRXEWWKDWGHWDLOVDERXWWKHYLHZHUVSHUFHSWLRQDQGDWWHQWLRQDUHOLNHO\WREH PLVVHG
ZLWK52,DQDO\VLV,QSDUWLFXODUKLJKDPRXQWVRIGDWDUHGXFWLRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWK52,
DQDO\VLV PD\ GLVWRUW FRQFOXVLRQV GUDZQ IURP WKH GDWD DQG PD\ RYHUORRN LPSRUWDQW
SK\VLRORJLFDOGHWDLOV,QRWKHUZRUGV52,DQDO\VLVIRFXVHVRQZKHWKHURQHVJD]HIDOOV
LQWRSUHGHILQHGUHJLRQVUDWKHUWKDQH[DPLQLQJZKDWWKHXVHUDFWXDOO\VHHVZLWKLQWKH
UHJLRQ 6XFK D FRQVWUDLQW VXJJHVWV WKDW 52, DQDO\VLV PD\ DFWXDOO\ PLVV WKH FHQWUDO
EHQHILW RI H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRGV LQ UHVHDUFK FI 3RPSOXQ HW DO  7KLV ILQDO
OLPLWDWLRQLVWUXHIRUSUDFWLFDOO\DOOVWXGLHVWKDWUHO\VROHO\RQ52,EDVHGH\HWUDFNLQJ
GDWD DQDO\VLV DQG KDV LQ SDUW OHG WR WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI KHDWPDSV ZKLFK KDYH KDG
VWURQJDSSHDOWRPDUNHWLQJUHVHDUFKSUDFWLWLRQHUV%RMNR
,QVXPPDU\WKHUHDUHFOHDUOLPLWDWLRQVDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHXVHRI52,DVWKHEDVLVRI
H\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGRORJ\'HVSLWHWKHVHOLPLWDWLRQVDQGDVQRWHGEHIRUH52,DQDO\VLV
LVKHDYLO\XVHGE\UHVHDUFKHUVLQPDUNHWLQJDQGRWKHUILHOGV*LYHQWKHLQFUHDVLQJXVH
RI H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRGV E\ PDUNHWLQJ SUDFWLWLRQHUV DQG UHVHDUFKHUV DQ DOWHUQDWH
PHWKRGWKDWDGGUHVVHVWKHSUHYLRXVO\QRWHGFRQFHUQVZRXOGEHXVHIXO

6SDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFV$QDOWHUQDWLYHH\HWUDFNLQJGDWD
DQDO\VLV
7KHSULPDU\JRDORIWKHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKLVWRGHYHORSDQHZPHWKRGIRUDQDO\]LQJH\H
WUDFNLQJ GDWD %HIRUH GRLQJ VR ZH SURYLGH D VXPPDU\ RI D UHODWHG EXW GLVWLQFW
DSSURDFK WR YLVXDOL]LQJ VXFK GDWD +HDWPDSV RU DWWHQWLRQDO ODQGVFDSHV DV ILUVW
SURSRVHGE\3RPSOXQZHUHGHYHORSHGWRUHVROYHVRPHRIWKHLVVXHVDVVRFLDWHG
ZLWK 52,V E\ YLVXDOL]LQJ ZKDW WKH YLHZHU DFWXDOO\ VHHV VHH DOVR :RRGLQJ 
+HDWPDSV DSSUR[LPDWH WKH KXPDQ ILHOG RI YLVLRQ E\ GUDZLQJ *DXVVLDQ GLVWULEXWLRQV
DURXQG UHJLVWHUHG JD]H SRLQWV VXPPLQJ WKHP XS DQG FRORULQJ RU EOXUULQJ WKH
SDUWLFXODUKHLJKWVRIWKHUHVXOWLQJPDS
+HDWPDSVYLVXDOL]HFRPSOH[H\HWUDFNLQJGDWDLQDQLQWXLWLYHDQGYLVXDOO\FRPSHOOLQJ
ZD\DQGWKXVHQMR\ZLGHVSUHDGXVHLQSUDFWLFDOH\HWUDFNLQJUHVHDUFKHJ+DPDHNHUV
/DDQ7KHUHLVDWOHDVWRQHQRWDEOHOLPLWDWLRQWRKHDWPDSVEHVLGHRWKHUVFI


$UWLFOH,

%RMNRQDPHO\WKHODFNRIDQ\VWDWLVWLFDOFULWHULRQDVVRFLDWHGZLWKWKHWHFKQLTXH
7KLV OLPLWDWLRQ PDNHV LW GLIILFXOW WR XVH WKLV WRRO LQ TXDQWLWDWLYH UHVHDUFK DQG RIWHQ
UHOHJDWHV WKH XVH RI WKLV WHFKQLTXH WR GDWD YLVXDOL]DWLRQ 7KHUHIRUH UHVHDUFKHUV
LQWHUHVWHGLQWHVWLQJWKHRU\DUHOHIWLQDGLIILFXOWSRVLWLRQJLYHQWKDWKHDWPDSVGRQRW
SURYLGH DQ\ PHFKDQLVP IRU WHVWLQJ K\SRWKHVHV DQG PHWULFV EDVHG RQ 52, DQDO\VLV
PLJKWELDVUHVXOWVGXHWRWKHSUHYLRXVO\GHWDLOHGFRQFHUQV,QWKHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKZH
DGGUHVV WKLV VLWXDWLRQ E\ LQWURGXFLQJ DQ HQWLUHO\ QHZ DSSURDFK IRU DQDO\]LQJ H\H
WUDFNLQJGDWDWKDWPDNHVXVHRIVSDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFV
6FDQVWDWLVWLFVDUHZLGHO\XVHGLQHSLGHPLRORJLFDOUHVHDUFKWRLGHQWLI\GLVHDVHFOXVWHUV
DORQJDWHPSRUDOGLPHQVLRQDQGLQJHRJUDSKLFDOVSDFHDWWKHVDPHWLPHFI.XOOGRUII
$WKDV)HXHU0LOOHU .H\:KLOHVFDQVWDWLVWLFVDUHQRWH[SOLFLWO\OLPLWHGWR
WKH DQDO\VLV RI HSLGHPLRORJLFDO GDWD .XOOGRUII  XVH LQ RWKHU FRQWH[WV LV UDUH
&OXVWHUEDVHG VFDQ VWDWLVWLFV KDYH EHHQ VXFFHVVIXOO\ XVHG WR DQDO\]H I05, GDWD DQG
ZHUH LQWURGXFHG DV DQ DOWHUQDWLYH WR WUDGLWLRQDO YR[HOE\YR[HO DQDO\VLV FI +HOOHU HW
DO7KHDSSOLFDWLRQRIWKHVHVWDWLVWLFVWRH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDKDVQHYHUEHHQWHVWHG
HYHQWKRXJKWKHLPSOHPHQWDWLRQLQWKLVFRQWH[WLVSURPLVLQJ
$SSO\LQJ WKH VFDQ VWDWLVWLF WR GDWD DVVXPHV WKDW D SRLQW SURFHVV FDQ DFFRXQW IRU WKH
GLVWULEXWLRQ RI SUHYLRXVO\ REVHUYHG GDWD VXFK DV WKH %HUQRXOOL PRGHO ,Q D W\SLFDO
HSLGHPLRORJLFDOXVHRIWKHWHFKQLTXHDUHVHDUFKHUREVHUYHVDSRSXODWLRQRISHRSOHWKDW
OLYHLQDVSHFLILFJHRJUDSKLFDOVSDFHDQGUHFRUGVGLVHDVHLQIRUPDWLRQIRUWKRVHSHRSOH
IRUDFHUWDLQSHULRGRIWLPH$W\SLFDOUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQLVZKHWKHUDVSHFLILFGLVHDVH
RFFXUUHGPRUHRIWHQLQSDUWLFXODUUHJLRQVRIWKHDUHDHJLQELJFLWLHVQHDUULYHUVRU
WRDSDUWLFXODUSRLQWLQWLPHHJVXPPHUWLPHRUZLQWHURUERWKFI.XOOGRUIIHWDO
 7KH VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ VWDWLVWLF SURYLGHV DQ DQVZHU WR WKLV TXHVWLRQ E\
FDOFXODWLQJD OLNHOLKRRGUDWLRIRUVHYHUDOUHJLRQVRIWKHWHVWVSDFH LQGLFDWLQJZKHWKHU
WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI JHWWLQJ D GLVHDVH LV KLJKHU RU ORZHU LQ WKH SDUWLFXODU UHJLRQ WKDQ
H[SHFWHGXQGHUWKHQXOOK\SRWKHVLVRUQRW7KHVFDQVWDWLVWLFDXWRPDWLFDOO\WHVWVPDQ\
GLIIHUHQWUHJLRQVZLWKLQWKHVSDFHERWKJHRJUDSKLFDOO\DQGWHPSRUDOO\ZKLFKLVGRQH
XVXDOO\E\DFLUFXODUVFDQQLQJZLQGRZWKDWV\VWHPDWLFDOO\URDPVDURXQGWKHWHVWVSDFH
YDU\LQJLQVL]HWRLGHQWLI\ODUJHDVZHOODVVPDOOHUUHJLRQVZLWKGLIIHULQJSUREDELOLWLHV
7KH UHVHDUFKHU FDQ GHILQH VSHFLILF ERXQGDULHV IRU WKH VFDQQLQJ ZLQGRZ VXFK DV D
PD[LPXPZLQGRZVL]H)URPDPRUHWHFKQLFDOSHUVSHFWLYHUDQGRPELQDU\FRXQWVDUH
DSSUR[LPDWHGE\WKH%HUQRXOOLPRGHOZLWKSDUWLFXODUSUREDELOLWLHVIRUWKHRFFXUUHQFH
RIFDVHVLQGLYLGXDOVZLWKDGLVHDVHDQGQRQFDVHVKHDOWK\LQGLYLGXDOVUHVSHFWLYHO\


$UWLFOH,

)LQDOO\ D OLNHOLKRRG UDWLR VWDWLVWLF LV FDOFXODWHG DQG VLJQLILFDQFH LV HYDOXDWHG ZLWK
0RQWH&DUORVLPXODWLRQ.XOOGRUII
7KH VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ VWDWLVWLF FDQ EH DSSOLHG WR H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD VLQFH WKH GDWD
VWUXFWXUH LV VLPLODU WR WKDW RI WKH GDWD XVHG LQ HSLGHPLRORJLFDO UHVHDUFK ,Q D W\SLFDO
PDUNHWLQJVHWWLQJHJZKHUHVWLPXOLDUHV\VWHPDWLFDOO\YDULHGLQWHUPVRIIHDWXUHVHW
JD]H SRLQWV REVHUYHG XQGHU D SDUWLFXODU H[SHULPHQWDO RU EDVHOLQH FRQGLWLRQ DUH
WUHDWHG DV QRQFDVHV ZKLOH SRLQWV REVHUYHG XQGHU DQRWKHU H[SHULPHQWDO YDULDWLRQ DUH
WUHDWHG DV FDVHV %DVHG RQ WKH REVHUYHG H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD WKH SUREDELOLW\ RI D JD]H
SRLQW EHLQJ D FDVH FDQ WKXV EH FDOFXODWHG IRU D FHUWDLQ UHJLRQ LQ VSDFH D VLPLODU
SURFHGXUH FDQ EH FRQGXFWHG IRU WKH DUHD RXWVLGH RI WKDW UHJLRQ 8QGHU WKH QXOO
K\SRWKHVLV RQH ZRXOG DVVXPH WKDW FDVHV RFFXU UDQGRPO\ DQG WKXV URXJKO\ HTXDOO\
RIWHQ LQVLGH D FHUWDLQ UHJLRQ RI WKH ZKROH REVHUYDWLRQ DUHD WKDQ RXWVLGH WKDW UHJLRQ
:KLOH XQGHU WKH DOWHUQDWLYH K\SRWKHVLV WKH SUREDELOLWLHV ZRXOG GLIIHU )URP WKH
REVHUYHGGDWDREVHUYHGFDVHVLQVLGHDQGRXWVLGHDSDUWLFXODUUHJLRQDOLNHOLKRRGIRU
HDFKUHJLRQFDQEHFDOFXODWHGLQGLFDWLQJUHJLRQVZKHUHWKHQXPEHURIREVHUYHGFDVHV
GLIIHU KLJKO\ IURP WKH H[SHFWHG DPRXQW DQG WKH SUREDELOLWLHV DUH WKHUHIRUH OLNHO\ WR
GLIIHU 7KLV SURFHGXUH LV DSSOLHG WR WKH ZKROH VWXG\ UHJLRQ E\ PRYLQJ DURXQG D
VFDQQLQJZLQGRZWKDWV\VWHPDWLFDOO\YDULHVLQVSDFHDQGWLPH7KHZLQGRZDOVRYDULHV
LQVL]HDVLWPRYHVDFURVVWKHH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDSODQHVRWKDWIRUDOOSRLQWVDOOSRVVLEOH
ZLQGRZVL]HVDUHWHVWHGDIHDWXUHWKDWLVFRQYHQLHQWIRUH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDJLYHQWKDW
WKH52,GHILQLWLRQPD\EHSUREOHPDWLFDO$VQRWHGHDUOLHUWKHOLNHOLKRRGUDWLRVWDWLVWLF
LV FDOFXODWHG IURP WKLV SURFHVV DQG VLJQLILFDQFH LV HYDOXDWHG YLD D 0RQWH &DUOR
VLPXODWLRQ SURFHVV .XOOGRUII  7DEOH  SURYLGHV D VXPPDU\ RI WKH NH\
GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHWUDGLWLRQDO52,DQDO\VLVDQGWKHVFDQVWDWLVWLF
,Q WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK WKH VFDQ VWDWLVWLF LV DSSOLHG WR SHUFHSWLRQ RI FDU IDFH GHVLJQV
WKDWV\VWHPDWLFDOO\YDU\LQWHUPVRIGHVLJQIHDWXUHV2IFRXUVHWKLVSURFHGXUHFRXOGEH
DSSOLHGWRRWKHUPDUNHWLQJUHVHDUFKFRQWH[WVIRUH[DPSOHZKHQWHVWLQJSURGXFWODEHOV
RUVKHOIFRQILJXUDWLRQV3ULRUWRUHSRUWLQJWKHUHVXOWVRIWKHVWXG\DEULHIRYHUYLHZRI
WKLV HPHUJLQJ UHVHDUFK WRSLF LV SURYLGHG WR HTXLS WKH UHDGHU ZLWK WKH QHFHVVDU\
EDFNJURXQGNQRZOHGJH



$UWLFOH,

7DEOH
6XPPDU\RINH\GLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWUDFNLQJPHWKRGV
7\SHRIH\HWUDFNLQJDQDO\VLV
&ODVVLFDO52,
6SDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQ
&RPPRQW\SHRIVWXG\

)LHOGVWXG\H[SHULPHQWQDWXUDO
RUH[SHULPHQWDOO\PDQLSXODWHG

5HIHUHQFHFRQGLWLRQ

$QDO\VLVZLWKLQDVLQJOHFRQGLWLRQ 5HIHUHQFHFRQGLWLRQQHHGHG
SRVVLEOH

&RPPRQW\SHRIDQDO\VLV
1XPEHURIDQDO\VHVQHHGHG

7KHRU\GULYHQSUHGHILQHG52,
'DWDGULYHQDQGWKHRU\GULYHQ
6HSDUDWHDQDO\VHVIRUVSDWLDODQG 6LQJOHDQDO\VLVIRUERWKGLIIHUHQFHV
WHPSRUDOGLIIHUHQFHV
LQVSDWLDOSODQHDQGWHPSRUDOSODQH

6L]HRIDQDO\VLVUHJLRQ
0HWULFV

)L[HGWKURXJKRXWDQDO\VLV
7RWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ
1XPEHURIIL[DWLRQV
0HDQIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ
)LUVWIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ
7LPHWRILUVWIL[DWLRQ
'DWDGLVWULEXWLRQDVVXPSWLRQV 1RUPDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
+LVWRJUDPVIRUVSHFLILF52,
'DWDYLVXDOL]DWLRQ

([SHULPHQWH[SHULPHQWDOO\
PDQLSXODWHGVWLPXOL

9DULDEOHWKURXJKRXWDQDO\VLV
1XPEHURIJD]HIL[DWLRQSRLQWV

%LQRPLDOGLVWULEXWLRQ
6LJQLILFDQFHPDSRYHUZKROH
VWLPXOXVUHJLRQ

([SHULPHQW
$QWKURSRPRUSKLVPLQSURGXFWDQGFDUGHVLJQ
$QWKURSRPRUSKLVP WKH WHQGHQF\ RI SHRSOH WR DSSO\ KXPDQ WUDLWV WR QRQOLYLQJ
REMHFWVLVHPHUJLQJDVDQLPSRUWDQWGHVLJQSULQFLSOHWKDWFDQPDNHSURGXFWVPRUHRU
OHVV DSSHDOLQJ DQG UHFRJQL]DEOH WR FXVWRPHUV HJ $JJDUZDO  0F*LOO  )RU
H[DPSOH UHVHDUFK KDV H[DPLQHG WKH LQIOXHQFH RI FDU IDFHV RQ VXEMHFWLYH UDWLQJV RI
OLNLQJ ZLWK /DQGZHKU 0F*LOO DQG +HUUPDQQ  VKRZLQJ ZLWK UHDO PDUNHW GDWD
WKDW FHUWDLQ FRPELQDWLRQV RI DIIHFWLYH IHDWXUHV RI D FDU IDFH QDPHO\ DJJUHVVLYH
KHDGOLJKWVFRPELQHGZLWKDIULHQGO\JULOOHDUHSUHIHUUHGRYHURWKHUFRPELQDWLRQVDQG
WKDW VXFK IHDWXUHV FDQ LPSDFW FRQVXPHU EHKDYLRU 5HVHDUFK RQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU
GHVLJQVRUHPRWLRQDOFDUIDFHVLVSDUWLFXODUO\LQWHUHVWLQJIRUWKHSXUSRVHRIWKHFXUUHQW
UHVHDUFKVLQFHWKHUHLVDYDVWERG\RIEDVLFUHVHDUFKVXJJHVWLQJDVKRUWWHUPFRJQLWLYH
SURFHVVLQJ DGYDQWDJH IRU WKUHDWHQLQJ IDFHV FI gKPDQ /XQGTYLVW  (VWHYHV 
WKDWVKRXOGEHPHDVXUDEOHZLWKH\HWUDFNLQJSURWRFROV
,Q SDUWLFXODU VRPH VWXGLHV VXJJHVW WKDW WKUHDWHQLQJ IDFHV DUH SURFHVVHG PRUH
DFFXUDWHO\ DQG IDVWHU WKDQ IULHQGO\ IDFHV ZKLFK LV RIWHQ H[SODLQHG ZLWK WKHRULHV RQ
ELRORJLFDOSUHSDUHGQHVVHJgKPDQHWDO,QDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHVHWKHRULHV


$UWLFOH,

WKHUHLVHYLGHQFHIURPUHVHDUFKRQSKRELFVWKDWWKUHDWHQLQJVWLPXOLDUHIL[DWHGRQPRUH
UDSLGO\ \HWDYRLGHGLQWKHORQJHUWHUP5LQFN %HFNHU)LQDOO\RWKHUUHFHQW
UHVHDUFKXVLQJH\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGVKDVGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWFDUIDFHVDUHORRNHGDWLQD
ZD\ FRPSDUDEOH WR KXPDQ IDFHV SRLQWLQJ WR WKH SUHGRPLQDQW UROH RI KHDGOLJKWV
:LQGKDJHUHWDO%XLOGLQJRQWKHVHIRXQGDWLRQVLWLVH[SHFWHGWKDWSHRSOHZLOO
DYRLGWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQIHDWXUHVZKHQIRUFHGWRORRNDWDJJUHVVLYHDQWKURSRPRUSKLF
FDUIURQWV

3DUWLFLSDQWV
7KHVDPSOHLQFOXGHGXQGHUJUDGXDWHDQGJUDGXDWHVWXGHQWV1 ZLWKDPHDQDJHRI
\HDUVDQGDVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQRI\HDUVWZHOYHIHPDOHVZKRSDUWLFLSDWHGLQ
WKH H[SHULPHQW IRU SDUWLDO FRXUVH FUHGLW $OO SDUWLFLSDQWV KDG DW OHDVW FRUUHFWHGWR
QRUPDOYLVLRQ7KHZLWKLQVXEMHFWGHVLJQXVHGLQWKLVH[SHULPHQWDOORZHGWKHXVHRID
UHODWLYHO\VPDOOVDPSOH


)LJXUH
([DPSOHVWLPXOLLOOXVWUDWLQJWKHGLIIHUHQWGHVLJQYDULDQWVIRUKHDGOLJKWVVLGHDLU
YHQWVDQGORZHUDLUYHQW7KHFDUIURQWRQWKHOHIWVKRZVWKHWKUHDWHQLQJIHDWXUHV
WKHFDUIURQWRQWKHULJKWWKHIULHQGO\IHDWXUHV

6WLPXOL
&DU IDFHV YDULHG V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ LQ WHUPV RI KHDGOLJKWV WKUHDWHQLQJ YV IULHQGO\ WKH
H\HVRIDKXPDQIDFHDORZHUDLUYHQWWKUHDWHQLQJYVIULHQGO\WKHPRXWKDQGVLGH
DLU YHQWV WKUHDWHQLQJ YV IULHQGO\ WKH FKHHNV IRU D VHW RI HLJKW FDU IURQWV 5HVHDUFK
HPSOR\LQJVFKHPDWLFIDFHVSURYLGHGJXLGDQFHIRUFUHDWLQJWKHFDUVWLPXOL/XQGTYLVW
(VWHYHV  gKPDQ  7KH HPRWLRQ HYRNHG E\ WKH IHDWXUHV ZDV DVVHVVHG LQ D


$UWLFOH,

SUHWHVWDQGFRXOGEHFRQILUPHGIRUWKHKHDGOLJKWGHVLJQDQGWKHORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQ
)LJXUHSURYLGHVWZRH[DPSOHVRIFRPSOHWHO\WKUHDWHQLQJDQGFRPSOHWHO\IULHQGO\FDU
IDFHV

3URFHGXUH
,QWKHPDLQH[SHULPHQWXVLQJDZLWKLQVXEMHFWGHVLJQHDFKLPDJHIURPWKHSLFWXUHVHW
ZDV SUHVHQWHG WR SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ D UDQGRP RUGHU (DFK FDU LPDJH ZDV VKRZQ IRU 
VHFRQGV DQG SDUWLFLSDQWV UDWHG HDFK SLFWXUH RQ VHYHUDO VFDOHV GLUHFWO\ DIWHU YLHZLQJ
%HIRUH VWDUWLQJ WKH H[SHULPHQW SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DFFOLPDWHG WR WKH H\H WUDFNHU DQG D
VWDQGDUGFDOLEUDWLRQSURFHGXUHZDVFDUULHGRXW
)RUWKHFROOHFWLRQRIH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDD7RELL;VWDQGDORQHH\HWUDFNLQJXQLWZDV
XVHG 7KH XQLW FDSWXUHG WKH GDWD ZLWK DQ DFFXUDF\ RI  DW D VDPSOLQJ UDWH RI 
+HUW] 6WLPXOL ZHUH SUHVHQWHG RQ D LQFK 6DPVXQJ 6\QF0DVWHU 70 ZLWK D
VFUHHQ UHVROXWLRQ RI  [  SL[HOV (DFK SLFWXUH FRYHUHG  RI WKH VFUHHQV
ZLGWK DQG  RI WKH KHLJKW RI WKH VFUHHQ VR WKDW WKH FDU IDFHV UHVHPEOHG UHDO FDU
IURQWV VHHQ IURP D GLVWDQFH RI DSSUR[LPDWHO\  PHWHUV 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH VHDWHG
DERXWFHQWLPHWHUVDZD\IURPWKH VFUHHQ +HDG PRYHPHQWVZHUHDOORZHGLQDER[
ZLWKDVLGHOHQJWKRIURXJKO\FHQWLPHWHUV
(\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD IRU DOO SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH UHFRUGHG IRU HDFK RI WKH VWLPXOL ZKLFK
RFFXUUHGLQDUDQGRPL]HGRUGHU7ULDOVZHUHLQGLFDWHGZLWKWULJJHUVLJQDOVLQWKHGDWD
RXWSXWLIRUPRUHRIWKHGDWDSRLQWVZHUHPLVVLQJSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHH[FOXGHGDV
ZHUHSDUWLFLSDQWVZKRKDGPRUHWKDQPLVVLQJGDWDSRLQWVLQDURZ2YHUDOOQLQH
GDWDVHWVZHUHH[FOXGHGILQDOVDPSOH1 SDUWLFLSDQWV

&DOFXODWLRQDQGSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKHVSDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFV
5DZ GDWD IRU DOO SDUWLFLSDQWV LQFOXGLQJ WUDFNLQJ FRRUGLQDWHV [ \ HYHU\ 
PLOOLVHFRQGV RYHU WKH WRWDO WLPH LQWHUYDO RI  VHFRQGV ZHUH FRPELQHG IRU HDFK
H[SHULPHQWDO FRQGLWLRQ 7R UHGXFH WKH FDOFXODWLRQ WLPH IRU WKH VFDQ VWDWLVWLF D
VSDWLRWHPSRUDO JULG ZLWK D UHVROXWLRQ RI  VTXDUHV LQ WLPH VWHSV RI 
PLOOLVHFRQGV ZDV H[WHQGHG RYHU WKH GDWD VWUXFWXUH DQG JD]H IUHTXHQFLHV ZHUH
FDOFXODWHGIRUHDFKRIWKHJULGSRLQWV,QRUGHUWRFDOFXODWHWKHVFDQVWDWLVWLFEDVHGRQD
%HUQRXOOLPRGHOFDVHVDQGFRQWUROVQHHGHGWREHGHILQHG6SHFLILFDOO\DOOFRQGLWLRQV


$UWLFOH,

FRQWDLQLQJDFHUWDLQYDULDQWHJDQRQWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWZHUHPHUJHGDQGWUHDWHG

DVFDVHVZKHUHDVDOORIWKHRWKHUFRQGLWLRQVHJZLWKDWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWZHUH
PHUJHGDQGWUHDWHGDVFRQWUROV7KHVFDQVWDWLVWLFZDVFDOFXODWHGXVLQJ6D76FDQY
0DUWLQ.XOOGRUIIZLWKDVSDFHWLPHUHWURVSHFWLYHDQDO\VLVEHLQJSHUIRUPHGXVLQJWKH
%HUQRXOOLPRGHODVDGLVFUHWHVFDQVWDWLVWLF7KHVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWZDVVHWWRVFDQIRUKLJK
DQGORZUDWHVDQGFOXVWHUVZKLFKH[SDQGHGRYHUWKHZKROHWLPHVSDQZHUHDOORZHG,Q
DOO RWKHU DVSHFWV WKH GHIDXOW VHWWLQJV RI WKH VRIWZDUH ZHUH XVHG )LJXUH  SURYLGHV D
YLVXDOUHSUHVHQWDWLRQRIWKHGDWDDJJUHJDWLRQSURFHVVDQGVFDQSURFHGXUH


)LJXUH
6FKHPDWLFGLDJUDPRIWKHDQDO\VLVSURFHGXUH
,Q WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK FOXVWHUV ZLWK WKH ODUJHVW OLNHOLKRRGV DUH UHSRUWHG ILUVW 7R
UHGXFH WKH FRPSOH[LW\ RI WKH RXWSXW DQG WR WDNH LQWR DFFRXQW SK\VLFDO FRQVWUDLQWV RI
KXPDQYLVLRQWZRUHSRUWLQJFULWHULDZHUHHPSOR\HG)LUVWQRFOXVWHUVDUHUHSRUWHGWKDW



(\HWUDFNLQJGDWDIRUDOOVWLPXOLZHUHFROOHFWHGIRUHDFKRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVLQDZLWKLQVXEMHFWGHVLJQ'DWDZHUH
JURXSHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR D SDUWLFXODU GHVLJQ IHDWXUH DQG GLYLGHG LQWR FDVH DQG QRQFDVH REVHUYDWLRQV %\
PRYLQJ D VFDQQLQJ ZLQGRZ V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ YDU\LQJ LQ VL]H DFURVV WKH GDWD SODQH WKH VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ
VWDWLVWLF LGHQWLILHV VLJQLILFDQW FOXVWHUV RQ EDVH RI WKH FDVH WR QRQFDVH UDWLR ,Q WKH JUDSK JURXSLQJ IRU WKH
FRPSDULVRQ WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV DJDLQVW QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV LV VKRZQ RWKHU JURXSLQJ SURFHGXUHV
ZHUHSHUIRUPHGLQDQDQDORJRXVIDVKLRQ



$UWLFOH,

KDYH FHQWHUV LQ RWKHU FOXVWHUV WKLV VLWXDWLRQ PD\ DULVH VLQFH WKH VFDQQLQJ ZLQGRZ
DXWRPDWLFDOO\ WHVWV IRU GLIIHUHQW SRVLWLRQV DQG ZLQGRZ VL]HV ZKLFK FRXOG UHVXOW LQ
VPDOOHUVLJQLILFDQWFOXVWHUVZLWKLQELJJHUUHJLRQVRIVLJQLILFDQFH6HFRQGFOXVWHUVL]HV
ZHUHUHVWULFWHGWRDSSUR[LPDWHO\RIWKHKXPDQYLVXDOILHOG%HVLGHVWKHPRVWOLNHO\
RUSULPDU\FOXVWHUVVHYHUDOVHFRQGDU\FOXVWHUVZHUHDOVRLGHQWLILHG2QO\WKRVHZLWK
WKH DEVROXWH ODUJHVW GLIIHUHQFH LQ JD]H GHQVLW\ EHWZHHQ WZR WHVWHG FRQGLWLRQV DUH
FRQVLGHUHGKHUHLQVLQFHWKHVHUHJLRQVDUHRIHOHYDWHGSUDFWLFDOLQWHUHVWDVWKLVLQGLFDWHV
UHJLRQV RQ WKH VWLPXOXV VXUIDFH ZKHUH SDUWLFLSDQWV ORRN RIWHQ LQ RQH FRQGLWLRQ DQG
RQO\UDUHO\LQWKHRWKHU
)RU YLVXDO UHSRUWLQJ SXUSRVHV WKH PRVW OLNHO\ FOXVWHUV DUH UHSRUWHG ZLWK VSDWLDO
FRRUGLQDWHVRIFLUFOHVGHILQHGWKURXJK[\DQGUDGLXVU0RUHRYHUWKHWLPHIUDPHRI
WKHFOXVWHUUDQJLQJIURPWRVHFRQGVLVUHSRUWHGDVZHOODVWKHQXPEHURIWRWDO
JD]H SRLQWV LQ D SDUWLFXODU FOXVWHU DFURVV DOO FRQGLWLRQV ,Q WHUPV RI PHWULFV UHODWLYH
ULVN55LQGLFDWHVZKHWKHULQWKHFDVHFRQGLWLRQVWKHUHDUHPRUHLQGLFDWHGZKHQ55!
RUOHVVLQGLFDWHGZKHQ55SRLQWVOLNHO\WREHREVHUYHGLQDSDUWLFXODUUHJLRQ
7KHORJOLNHOLKRRGUDWLR//5LVDOVRUHSRUWHG,QWKHSORWVFOXVWHUVDUHGUDZQZLWKWKH
LGHQWLILHGFLUFOHSDUDPHWHUV&OXVWHUVZLWK55!DUHPDUNHGZLWKDLQWKHLUFHQWHU
DQG FOXVWHUV ZLWK 55   DUH PDUNHG ZLWK D  7KH WUDQVSDUHQF\ RI D FOXVWHU ZDV
GHILQHGE\WKHDEVROXWHYDOXHRIWKHGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHQXPEHURIH[SHFWHGFDVHV
DQGWKHREVHUYHGQXPEHURIFDVHVLQDFOXVWHU

5HVXOWV
52,DQDO\VLV
7ZRVHWVRI52,VZHUHGHILQHGDVHWZLWKDQDUURZGHILQLWLRQZKHUH52,UHFWDQJOHV
ZHUH GUDZQ DV FORVHO\ DURXQG WKH FDU IHDWXUHV DV SRVVLEOH DQG D VHW ZLWK D ZLGHU
GHILQLWLRQ ZKHUH 52,UHFWDQJOHV ZHUH WZLFH WKH VL]H DV WKH SUHYLRXV EXW GLG QRW
RYHUODS VHH )LJXUH  DQG 7DEOH  52,V IRU WKH OHIW DQG ULJKW KHDGOLJKWV ZHUH
FRQMRLQHG IRU DQDO\VLV DV WKHVH FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG DV D VLQJOH XQLW RI GHVLJQ )RU WKH
FDOFXODWLRQRIIL[DWLRQVWKHLQEXLOW7RELLIL[DWLRQILOWHUZDVXVHGZLWKDIL[DWLRQUDGLXV
RISL[HOVFI/DPP0HOW]RII 'HFHW\



$UWLFOH,

7DEOH
'HVFULSWLYHVWDWLVWLFVIRUWRWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQVDFURVVDOOH[SHULPHQWDO
FRQGLWLRQVDQGUHODWLYH52,VL]HV

+HDGOLJKWV
6LGHDLUYHQWV
/RZHUDLUYHQW

6L]H>@




:LGH52,
P >V@

VG









6L]H>@




1DUURZ52,
P >V@

VG










$VW\SLFDOO\GRQHDVHULHVRI$129$VZDVFDOFXODWHGIRUHDFK52,)RUHDFKPRGHO
WKH VWLPXOXV IHDWXUHV LH KHDGOLJKW VLGH DLU YHQWV RU ORZHU DLU YHQWV VHUYHG DV WKH
LQGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOHV7KHWRWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ7)'IRUHDFKIHDWXUHVHUYHGDVWKH
VLQJOH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH IRU HDFK RI WKH $129$ PRGHOV )RU WKH ZLGHU 52,
GHILQLWLRQ LQ WKH 52, RI WKH HQODUJHG KHDGOLJKW UHJLRQ WKHUH ZHUH VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ
HIIHFWV IRU WKH KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ >)   S  @ DQG WKH VLGH DLU YHQWV
GHVLJQ>) S @,QSDUWLFXODUWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVOHGWRVKRUWHU
IL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQVZKLOHWKHWKUHDWHQLQJVLGHDLUYHQWVOHGWRORQJHUIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQV
2WKHU HIIHFWV GLG QRW UHDFK VLJQLILFDQFH SV !  7KH GHVLJQ RI WKH VLGH DLU YHQWV
KDG D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RQ WKH HQODUJHG ORZHU DLU YHQW UHJLRQ ZLWK WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ
GHVLJQORZHULQJWKH7)'>) S @$OORIWKHRWKHUYDULDQWVKDGQR
VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW SV !  DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ QR GLUHFW HIIHFW RI WKH ORZHU DLU YHQWV
GHVLJQFRXOGEHREVHUYHG


)LJXUH
52,GHILQLWLRQVIRUWKHVWLPXOXV2QWKHOHIWVLGHWKHZLGHGHILQLWLRQLVVKRZQ2Q
WKHULJKWVLGHWKHQDUURZGHILQLWLRQLVVXSHULPSRVHG
)RUWKHQDUURZ52,GHILQLWLRQWKHGLUHFWLRQVRIWKHUHSRUWHGHIIHFWVZHUHVLPLODUWRWKH
ZLGHU52,GHILQLWLRQ7KXVWKHGLUHFWLRQVDUHQRWUHSRUWHG$VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRIWKH


$UWLFOH,

VLGHDLUYHQWVGHVLJQZDVIRXQGRQWKH7)'LQWKHKHDGOLJKWUHJLRQ>) S

@ZKHUHDVWKHRWKHUGHVLJQYDULDWLRQVGLGQRWGLVSOD\ DVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWSV!
 5HJDUGLQJ WKH ORZHU DLU YHQW UHJLRQ D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RI WKH VLGH DLU YHQW
GHVLJQ ZDV IRXQG >)   S  @ DQG WKH RWKHU YDULDQWV GLG QRW UHDFK
VLJQLILFDQFHSV!
6SDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFV
&RPSDULQJ DOO WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW FRQGLWLRQV DJDLQVW WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW
FRQGLWLRQVDPRVWOLNHO\FOXVWHUZDVLGHQWLILHGORFDWHGRQWKHULJKWKHDGOLJKW[ 
\   U   WLPH IUDPH   V SRSXODWLRQ   55   //5 
S $VHFRQGDU\FOXVWHUZDVLGHQWLILHGLQWKHKRRGUHJLRQ[ \ 
U WLPHIUDPH VSRSXODWLRQ 55 //5 S
  7KH VSDWLDO SRVLWLRQV RI WKHVH WZR FOXVWHUV DV ZHOO DV WKH RWKHU LGHQWLILHG
FOXVWHUVDUHYLVXDOL]HGLQ)LJXUH7KLVILJXUHDOVRVKRZVSRVLWLRQVRIWKHLGHQWLILHG
FOXVWHUVZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHQDUURZ52,GHILQLWLRQVIURPWKH52,DQDO\VLV
&RPSDULQJ FRQGLWLRQV ZLWK D WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW RU PRXWK WKH PRVW OLNHO\
FOXVWHU ZDV GHWHFWHG FORVH WR WKH FHQWHU RI WKH ORZHU DLU YHQW [   \   U 
WLPHIUDPH VSRSXODWLRQ 55 //5 S 
7KHVHFRQGDU\FOXVWHUZLWKWKHKLJKHVWSRSXODWLRQZDVIRXQGRQWKHJULOOH[ \ 
U WLPHIUDPH VSRSXODWLRQ 55 //5 S

&RPSDULVRQRI52,DQDO\VLVDQGVSDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFV
$V H[SHFWHG WKH QDUURZ 52, GHILQLWLRQ OHG WR IHZHU DQG OHVV VLJQLILFDQW UHVXOWV LQ
FRPSDULVRQ WR D ZLGHU GHILQLWLRQ 7KH RQO\ GLUHFW HIIHFW RI D IHDWXUH RQ WKH
FRUUHVSRQGLQJ 52,V ZDV REVHUYHG LQ WKH ZLGH 52, FRQGLWLRQ ZKHUH WKUHDWHQLQJ
KHDGOLJKWV UHVXOWHG LQ D ORZHU WRWDO IL[DWLRQ WLPH 7KLV ILQGLQJ FRUUHVSRQGV ZLWK
WKHRUHWLFDO DVVXPSWLRQV EDVHG RQ SURFHVVLQJ VSHHG DQG DYRLGDQFH RI WKUHDWHQLQJ
VWLPXOL HJ 5LQFN  %HFNHU  EXW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ 52, GHILQLWLRQV
LOOXVWUDWHWKHYXOQHUDELOLW\RI52,EDVHGDQDO\VHV



$UWLFOH,

)LJXUH
6LJQLILFDQWFOXVWHUVIURPWKHVFDQDQDO\VLV7RS$OOFRQGLWLRQVZLWKWKUHDWHQLQJ
KHDGOLJKWVWHVWHGDJDLQVWQRQWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWFRQGLWLRQV%RWWRP$OO
FRQGLWLRQVZLWKWKHWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQWWHVWHGDJDLQVWQRQWKUHDWHQLQJ
ORZHUDLUYHQWFRQGLWLRQV$QDO\VLVJULGDQGQDUURZ52,GHILQLWLRQVDUHVKRZQDV
RYHUOD\
:KLOH JHQHUDO UHVXOWV IURP WKH 52, DQDO\VLV ZHUH FRQILUPHG ZLWK VFDQ VWDWLVWLFV
LPSRUWDQW GLIIHUHQFHV HPHUJHG )RU H[DPSOH E\ FRPSDULQJ WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW
FRQGLWLRQVZLWKDOORWKHUFRQGLWLRQVDFOXVWHURQWKHULJKWKHDGOLJKWZDVLGHQWLILHGZLWK


$UWLFOH,

WKH VFDQ VWDWLVWLFV WKDW ZDV ORRNHG DW OHVV RIWHQ DFURVV WKH HQWLUH WLPHIUDPH 7KH
VLWXDWLRQZDVOHVVFOHDUIRUWKHOHIWKHDGOLJKWZKHUHERWKDVPDOOOHVVIL[DWHGFOXVWHUDV
ZHOO DV D ODUJHU PRUHIL[DWHG FOXVWHU ZHUH REVHUYHG %RWK FOXVWHUV DUH FOHDUO\ LQ WKH
YLFLQLW\RIWKHKHDGOLJKWDQGLQSDUWRYHUODSSLQJZLWKWKH52,GHILQLWLRQVIRUWKHOHIW
KHDGOLJKW0RUHRYHUDVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHWUDQVSDUHQF\LQ)LJXUHWKHDEVROXWHYDOXH
RI JD]H GLIIHUHQFHV LV ODUJHO\ VPDOOHU LQ WKHVH WZR VHFRQGDU\ FOXVWHUV 7KLV
GHPRQVWUDWHV WKDW WUHDWLQJ WKH KHDGOLJKWV DV D VLQJOH 52, ZKLOH WKHRUHWLFDOO\
UHDVRQDEOHPLJKWQRWEHDGHTXDWHIRUWKHRQJRLQJJD]HSURFHVVHVDILQGLQJWKDWHDVLO\
ZRXOG KDYH EHHQ PLVVHG E\ UHO\LQJ RQ 52, DQDO\VLV 0RUHRYHU WKLV VHUYHV DV DQ
H[DPSOH RI D SRVVLEOH VXEUHJLRQ ELDV WKDW FRXOG KDYH DIIHFWHG ILQGLQJV LQ WKH 52,
DQDO\VLVDQGZRXOGQRWKDYHEHHQGLVFRYHUHGE\WKHFODVVLFDOPHWKRG
7KH 52, ILQGLQJ WKDW WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ RI WKH ORZHU DLU YHQW H[HUWHG QR YLVXDO
HIIHFW QHHGHG WR EH UHYLVHG EDVHG XSRQ WKH UHVXOWV RI WKH VFDQ VWDWLVWLF ,Q IDFW WKH
VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ LGHQWLILHG D PRVW OLNHO\ FOXVWHU ZLWK IHZHU JD]H SRLQWV WKDQ
H[SHFWHG DV FRPSDUHG WR FRQWURO FRQGLWLRQV GLUHFWHG WR WKH PRXWK UHJLRQ RI WKH FDU
IDFHLQWKHVHFRQGKDOIRIWKHWLPHLQWHUYDO7KHFOXVWHUZDVSRVLWLRQHGLQWKHFHQWHURI
WKH IHDWXUH 7KH 52, DQDO\VLV ZRXOG KDYH OHG WR D IXQGDPHQWDOO\ GLIIHUHQW
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQVLQFHREVHUYHGHIIHFWVRYHUODSSHGZLWKSRUWLRQVRIWKHVWLPXOXVWKDWGLG
QRWVKRZWKHHIIHFWDQGWKXVWKHVHUHJLRQVDGGHGQRLVHWRWKHVWDWLVWLFDOFRPSDULVRQ
$JDLQRQHFDQFRQFOXGHWKDWWKLVWKUHDWHQLQJIHDWXUHGHVLJQOHGWRIHZHUJD]HVZKLFK
LQWXUQVXSSRUWVWKHLQLWLDOILQGLQJVFRQFHUQLQJWKHSURFHVVLQJRIWKUHDWHQLQJIHDWXUHV
2YHUDOO WKH VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ DQDO\VLV SURYLGHG D PRUH SUHFLVH GHVFULSWLRQ RI WKH
JD]HSDWWHUQDQGWKHUHE\H[WHQGVILQGLQJVIURP52,DQDO\VLV,QDGGLWLRQLWVKRXOGEH
QRWHG WKDW WKH DGYDQWDJHV RI H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD DQDO\VLV ZLWK WKH VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ
VWDWLVWLF GLUHFWO\ DGGUHVV WKH ZHDNQHVVHV DVFULEHG WR 52,EDVHG DQDO\VHV DV ZLOO EH
SRLQWHGRXWLQPRUHGHWDLOLQWKHGLVFXVVLRQ

'LVFXVVLRQ
,Q WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK ZH LQWURGXFHG DQG WHVWHG D QRYHO PHWKRG IRU DQDO\]LQJ H\H
WUDFNLQJGDWDYLDVSDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFV7KHQHZPHWKRGZKLFKKDVQRWEHHQ
DSSOLHGWRH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDSUHYLRXVO\QRWRQO\LGHQWLILHGVWDWLVWLFDOO\GLVWLQFWFOXVWHUV
WKDWZHUHVXLWDEOHIRUK\SRWKHVLVWHVWLQJEXWDOVRHQDEOHGDQXQELDVHGH[SORUDWRU\ORRN
DWFRPSOH[H\HWUDFNLQJGDWD:KLOHVHYHUDOOLPLWDWLRQVH[LVWIRUFODVVLFDOH\HWUDFNLQJ


$UWLFOH,

PHWKRGV EDVHG RQ WKH GHILQLWLRQ RI 52,V WKHVH SUREOHPV GR QRW RFFXU ZLWK
VSDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQDQDO\VLV,QRXUVWXG\UHVXOWVGHULYHGIURPWKH52,DQDO\VLVZHUH
DW OHDVW SDUWLDOO\ FRQILUPHG E\ WKH QHZ PHWKRG EXW FOHDU GLIIHUHQFHV HPHUJHG ZLWK
JUHDWHUGHWDLOVUHSRUWHGZLWKWKHVFDQVWDWLVWLF

%HQHILWVRIVSDWLRWHPSRUDOVFDQVWDWLVWLFV
7KH DGYDQWDJHV RI RXU DSSURDFK UHODWH WR WKH FULWLTXH UDLVHG HDUOLHU DERXW 52,EDVHG
DQDO\VLV5HJDUGLQJWKHILUVWFRQFHUQWKHH[LVWHQFHRIVXEUHJLRQVZLWKLQDQ52,GRHV
QRW GLUHFWO\ DIIHFW WKH VWDWLVWLFDO H[WUDFWLRQV RI GLIIHULQJ JD]H FOXVWHUV ZLWK WKH VFDQ
DQDO\VLVZKLOHLW PD\ GLVWRUW52,EDVHGVWDWLVWLFV7KLVVLWXDWLRQLV FOHDUO\ LOOXVWUDWHG
LQ RXU UHVHDUFK 0RUHRYHU H[FHSW IURP H[WUDFWLRQ SDUDPHWHUV LQ WKH VFDQ SURFHGXUH
WKDW FDQ EH HDVLO\ UHSRUWHG DQG UHSOLFDWHG WKH VFDQ VWDWLVWLF GRHV QRW UHO\ RQ DQ\
VXEMHFWLYHMXGJPHQWVRIWKHUHVHDUFKHUDVGRHVWKH52,PHWKRGDQGWKHUHIRUHFRXOG
OHDGWRPRUHVWDQGDUGL]HGSURFHGXUHV
,QWHUPVRIWKHVHFRQG52,OLPLWDWLRQLHWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIQRQIL[DWHGREMHFWVVFDQ
VWDWLVWLFV DUH FOHDUO\ DEOH WR LQGLFDWH LI JD]H GLIIHUHQFHV RFFXUUHG LQ WKH YLFLQLW\ RI D
IHDWXUHRILQWHUHVW:KLOHREMHFWSHUFHSWLRQZLWKQRUHFRUGHGJD]HSRLQWVDWDOOLVOLNHO\
WR EH D SUREOHP IRU DQ\ H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRG WKH LGHQWLILFDWLRQ RI QHDUE\ JD]H
GLIIHUHQFHVXVLQJVFDQVWDWLVWLFVFDQFOHDUO\KHOSUHVROYHLGHQWLILFDWLRQSUREOHPVUHODWHG
WRWKHYLVXDOILHOGRIDFXLW\,QGHHGFHUWDLQUHVHDUFKTXHVWLRQVFRXOGEHDVVHVVHGLQWKLV
ZD\ E\ ORRNLQJ IRU JD]H FOXVWHUV DW D FHUWDLQ GLVWDQFH IURP WKH WREHSHUFHLYHG
REMHFWZKLFKZRXOGREYLRXVO\H[FHHGWKHSRVVLELOLWLHVRI52,EDVHGDQDO\VLV
5HJDUGLQJWKHWKLUGFRQFHUQVFDQVWDWLVWLFVFDQEHLPSOHPHQWHGWRYLVXDOL]HFRPSOH[
H\HWUDFNLQJGDWDLQDFRPSUHKHQVLYHPDQQHU6XFKDQDSSURDFKDOORZVUHVHDUFKHUVWR
JDLQ LQVLJKW LQWR SDUWLFLSDQWV JD]H EHKDYLRU EH\RQG ZKDW ZRXOG EH W\SLFDOO\
K\SRWKHVL]HGDQGRSHUDWLRQDOL]HGZLWK52,V,QRXUH[DPSOHWKLVLGHDSURYHGXVHIXO
ZKHQ H[DPLQLQJ WKH GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV RI WKH DXWRPRELOHV VLGH DLU YHQW (\H WUDFNLQJ
GDWD DQDO\]HG YLD VFDQ VWDWLVWLFV DOORZV UHVHDUFKHUV WR LGHQWLI\ LPSRUWDQW JD]H
GLIIHUHQFHV WKDW PD\ QRW KDYH EHHQ SURSRVHG WR H[LVW D SULRUL 8QOLNH KHDWPDSV WKDW
KDYH EHHQ LQLWLDOO\ SURSRVHG WR SORW ZKDW WKH YLHZHU DFWXDOO\ GLG VHH WKH QHZ
PHWKRGSURYLGHVDVWDWLVWLFDOFULWHULRQIRUZKDWZDVREVHUYHG
)LQDOO\ WKH QHZ PHWKRG SURYLGHV VHYHUDO DGGLWLRQDO DGYDQWDJHV RYHU 52,EDVHG
PHWKRGV ,Q SDUWLFXODU VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ DQDO\VHV SURYLGH LQ D VLQJOH SURFHGXUH


$UWLFOH,

LQIRUPDWLRQDERXWVHYHUDOSRVLWLRQVZLWKLQDVWLPXOXVZKHUHLQVLJQLILFDQWFOXVWHUVFDQ
EHIRXQG52,EDVHGDQDO\VHVFDQRQO\DFFRPSOLVKVXFKDWDVNE\FDOFXODWLQJPXOWLSOH
$129$VZLWKDGMXVWPHQWVIRUDOSKDLQIODWLRQ2QDVLPLODUQRWHWKHQHZSURFHGXUH
QRW RQO\ LQFRUSRUDWHV VSDWLDO GLPHQVLRQV EXW DOVR FRQVLGHUV WKH WLPHOLQH RI WKH JD]H
GDWDDGLPHQVLRQWKDWZRXOGRWKHUZLVHUHTXLUHVHSDUDWHVWDWLVWLFDOWHVWLQJ

,PSOLFDWLRQVIRUSURGXFWGHVLJQ
&RQVLVWHQW ZLWK WKHRUHWLFDO H[SHFWDWLRQV WKUHDWHQLQJ IHDWXUHVDUH ORRNHG DW OHVV RIWHQ
ZKHQ FRPSDUHG WR QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ IHDWXUHV LQ WKH ORQJ UXQ 7KLV ILQGLQJ QRW RQO\
VXSSRUWVSUHYLRXVOLWHUDWXUHRQELRORJLFDOSUHSDUHGQHVVFIgKPDQHWDO5LQFN
%HFNHUEXWDOVRVKRZVWKDWWKHVHHYROXWLRQDU\PHFKDQLVPVFDQEHWULJJHUHG
E\ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ DV UHIOHFWHG E\ H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRGV 2YHUDOO
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ LV FDSDEOH RI HOLFLWLQJ VSHFLILF YLHZHU UHDFWLRQV DV
ZDVGHPRQVWUDWHGLQRXUVWXG\UHJDUGLQJWKHHIIHFWRIWKUHDWHQLQJFDUIDFHVRQYLHZHUV
JD]H SDWWHUQV 3URGXFW GHVLJQHUV DV ZHOO DV DGYHUWLVHUV VKRXOG EH DZDUH RI WKLV DQG
FRPSDUDEOHPHFKDQLVPVDVWKHVXFFHVVRIFHUWDLQSURGXFWVPLJKWEHLPSDFWHGE\WKHLU
DELOLW\ WR FDSWXUH YLHZHUV DWWHQWLRQ )XWXUH UHVHDUFK PLJKW DGGUHVV KRZ PHFKDQLVPV
RI ELRORJLFDO SUHSDUHGQHVV UHODWH WR DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ DQG KRZ WKHVH
PHFKDQLVPVFDQEHHIIHFWLYHO\HPSOR\HGRQDPDUNHWVFDOH

/LPLWDWLRQVDQGIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
7KH XVH RI VSDWLRWHPSRUDO VFDQ VWDWLVWLFV RQ H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD LV QHZ VR VHYHUDO
DVSHFWVRIWKLVPHWKRGFRXOGXVHDGGLWLRQDOUHVHDUFKWRLPSURYHWKHWRROVDSSOLFDWLRQ
$V ZLWK DQ\ DSSURDFK GULYHQ E\ H[SORUDWLRQ HJ VHDUFKLQJ IRU JD]H FOXVWHUV RQ D
VWLPXOXV VXUIDFH WKDW FRUUHODWH ZLWK WKH PHDVXUHG FXVWRPHU YDULDEOHV ILQGLQJV PD\
OHDGWRVSXULRXVFRUUHODWLRQVDQGFDXWLRQVKRXOGEHH[HUFLVHGDWKRURXJKGLVFXVVLRQRI
WKLV LVVXH UHJDUGLQJ I05, GDWD LV SURYLGHG E\ 9XO +DUULV :LQNLHOPDQ  3DVKOHU
 $V D FRQVHTXHQFH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI VFDQ VWDWLVWLFV DW OHDVW IRU DFDGHPLF
WKHRU\WHVWLQJVKRXOGEHK\SRWKHVLVGULYHQDQGEDVHGRQVROLGUHVHDUFKH[SHFWDWLRQVRI
ZKHUH WR ORRN IRU VLJQLILFDQW JD]H FOXVWHUV 7KLV SRLQW LV LOOXVWUDWHG LQ WKH FXUUHQW
UHVHDUFK ZKHUH ZH SORWWHG WKHRUHWLFDOO\ GHILQHG 52,V LQWR WKH SORWV WR JXLGH
LQWHUSUHWDWLRQGHULYHGIURPWKHVFDQDQDO\VLV



$UWLFOH,

)XWXUH UHVHDUFK FRXOG LPSOHPHQW WKH SURSRVHG VFDQ VWDWLVWLF LQ RWKHU PDUNHWLQJ
UHVHDUFKDSSOLFDWLRQV7KLVH\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGPD\EHHVSHFLDOO\XVHIXOIRUUHVHDUFK
RQ SURGXFW ODEHOV SDFNDJH GHVLJQ RU IHDWXUH FRPSRVLWLRQ ZKHUH DQ H[SHULPHQWDO
DSSURDFKVLPLODUWRWKHRQHXVHGLQWKLVUHVHDUFKFRXOGEHLPSOHPHQWHG,QSDUWLFXODU
VFDQVWDWLVWLFVZRXOGSURYHXVHIXOZKHUHJD]HSDWWHUQVDVZHOODVJD]HFRXQWVFKDQJH
RYHUVSDFHDQGWLPHLQUHVSRQVHWRVXEWOHFKDQJHVLQVWLPXOL)RUH[DPSOHSDFNDJLQJ
DQGVKHOISODFHPHQWFRXOGEHH[DPLQHGE\VWXG\LQJWKHLPSDFWRIORZOHYHOSLFWRULDO
IHDWXUHV HJ OXPLQDQFH DQG FRQWUDVW RQ DWWHQWLRQ FDSWXUH DQG GLUHFWLRQ RI JD]H
)LQDOO\ WKH QHZ PHWKRG FRXOG EH H[WHQGHG WR RWKHU H[SHULPHQWDO GHVLJQV ZKHUH
YLHZHUVWKHPVHOYHVGHFLGHRQIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQRIWKHVWLPXOXVRUZKHUHWKHVWLPXOXV
LWVHOILVG\QDPLFUDWKHUWKDQVWDWLF

6XPPDU\
,QVXPPDU\WKHFXUUHQWZRUNVKHOSVPRYHXVFORVHUWRDQVZHULQJWKHDJHROGTXHVWLRQ
:KDWGRHVWKHYLHZHUUHDOO\VHH"7KLVTXHVWLRQLQLWLDOO\OHG3RPSOXQHWDOWR
WKH GHYHORSPHQW RI KHDWPDSV DQG QRZ KDV PRWLYDWHG WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN RQ VFDQ
VWDWLVWLFV ZKLFK FDQ SURYLGH VWDWLVWLFDOO\ UHOLDEOH UHVXOWV 7KH XVH RI VSDWLRWHPSRUDO
VFDQVWDWLVWLFVLVQRWRQO\DWWUDFWLYHWRDFDGHPLFUHVHDUFKLQPDUNHWLQJDVLWSURYLGHVD
PHWKRG FDSDEOH RI FRXQWHULQJ PDQ\ ZHDNQHVVHV RI 52,EDVHG DQDO\VLV LW LV DOVR
FDSDEOH RI LPSURYLQJ SUDFWLWLRQHUV ZRUN LQ WKH ILHOG RI PDUNHWLQJ D ILHOG ZKHUH WKH
XVHRIKHDWPDSVLVZLGHVSUHDG




$UWLFOH,

5HIHUHQFHV
$JJDUZDO3 0F*LOO$/,V7KDW&DU6PLOLQJDW0H"6FKHPD&RQJUXLW\
DV D %DVLV IRU (YDOXDWLQJ $QWKURSRPRUSKL]HG 3URGXFWV -RXUQDO RI &RQVXPHU
5HVHDUFK
$ULEDUJ $ 3LHWHUV 5  :HGHO 0  5DLVLQJ WKH %$5 %LDV $GMXVWPHQW RI
5HFRJQLWLRQ7HVWVLQ $GYHUWLVLQJ-RXUQDO RI0DUNHWLQJ5HVHDUFK 

%DUDJJLROL )  %UDVHO 6 $  9LVXDO 9HORFLW\ &RQWHQW )RQW (IIHFWV DQG
,QFLGHQWDO2QOLQH$G([SRVXUH$GYDQFHVLQ&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
%L[/%HOOR10$XUDV55DQJHU- /DSLQVNL0.([DPLQLQJWKH
&RQVSLFXRXVQHVV DQG 3URPLQHQFH RI 7ZR 5HTXLUHG :DUQLQJV RQ 27& 3DLQ
5HOLHYHUV 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH 1DWLRQDO $FDGHP\ RI 6FLHQFHV RI WKH 8QLWHG
6WDWHVRI$PHULFD
%RMNR $  ,QIRUPDWLYH RU 0LVOHDGLQJ" +HDWPDSV 'HFRQVWUXFWHG3URFHHGLQJV
RIWKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ+XPDQ&RPSXWHU,QWHUDFWLRQ
%RMNR$*DGG\&/HZ* 4XLQQ$(YDOXDWLRQRI'UXJ/DEHO'HVLJQV
8VLQJ (\H 7UDFNLQJ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH +XPDQ )DFWRUV DQG (UJRQRPLFV
6RFLHW\+)(6WK$QQXDO0HHWLQJ
%UDVHO 6 $  *LSV -  %UHDNLQJ 7KURXJK )DVW)RUZDUGLQJ %UDQG
,QIRUPDWLRQDQG9LVXDO$WWHQWLRQ-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ
%XVFKHU * &XWUHOO (  0RUULV 0 5  :KDW 'R <RX 6HH :KHQ <RXUH
6XUILQJ" 8VLQJ (\H 7UDFNLQJ WR 3UHGLFW 6DOLHQW 5HJLRQV RI :HE 3DJHV
3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ +XPDQ )DFWRUV LQ
&RPSXWLQJ6\VWHPV
&KDQGRQ3+XWFKLQVRQ-:%UDGORZ(7 <RXQJ6+'RHV,Q6WRUH
0DUNHWLQJ :RUN" (IIHFWV RI WKH 1XPEHU DQG 3RVLWLRQ RI 6KHOI )DFLQJV RQ
%UDQG$WWHQWLRQDQG(YDOXDWLRQDWWKH3RLQWRI3XUFKDVH-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ




$UWLFOH,

&XWUHOO (  *XDQ = :  :KDW $UH <RX /RRNLQJ )RU" $Q (\H7UDFNLQJ
6WXG\RI,QIRUPDWLRQ8VDJHLQ:HE6HDUFK3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH&RQIHUHQFHRQ
+XPDQ)DFWRUVLQ&RPSXWLQJ6\VWHPV 
'XFKRZVNL $ 7  $ %UHDGWK)LUVW 6XUYH\ RI (\H 7UDFNLQJ $SSOLFDWLRQV
%HKDYLRU5HVHDUFK0HWKRGV,QVWUXPHQWV &RPSXWHUV
'XFKRZVNL$7(\H7UDFNLQJ0HWKRGRORJ\7KHRU\DQG 3UDFWLFHQGHG
/RQGRQ6SULQJHU
)HLHUHLVHQ 6 :RQJ 9  %URGHULFN $ -  $QDORJLHV DQG 0HQWDO
6LPXODWLRQV LQ /HDUQLQJ IRU 5HDOO\ 1HZ 3URGXFWV 7KH 5ROH RI 9LVXDO
$WWHQWLRQ-RXUQDORI3URGXFW,QQRYDWLRQ0DQDJHPHQW
)R[ 5 - .UXJPDQ ' 0 )OHWFKHU - (  )LVFKHU 3 0  $GROHVFHQWV
$WWHQWLRQ WR %HHU DQG &LJDUHWWH 3ULQW $GV DQG $VVRFLDWHG 3URGXFW :DUQLQJV
-RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ
*DUFLD & 3RQVRGD 9  (VWHEDUDQ] +  6FDQQLQJ $GV (IIHFWV RI
,QYROYHPHQW DQG RI 3RVLWLRQ RI WKH ,OOXVWUDWLRQ LQ 3ULQWHG $GYHUWLVHPHQWV
$GYDQFHVLQ&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
+DPDHNHUV: /DDQ5*HWWLQJ,QWRWKH5HDO:RUOGRIWKH6KRSSHU8VLQJ
(\H 7UDFNLQJ LQ D 0XOWL 0RGH 5HVHDUFK $SSURDFK 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH
(620$5:RUOG5HVHDUFK&RQIHUHQFH,QVLJKWV
+HOOHU 5 6WDQOH\ ' <HNXWLHOL ' 5XELQ 1  %HQMDPLQL <  &OXVWHU
%DVHG$QDO\VLVRII05,'DWD1HXUR,PDJH
+HUYHW**XpUDUG.7UHPEOD\6 &KWRXURX06,V%DQQHU%OLQGQHVV
*HQXLQH" (\H 7UDFNLQJ ,QWHUQHW 7H[W $GYHUWLVLQJ $SSOLHG &RJQLWLYH
3V\FKRORJ\GRLDFS
,UZLQ'(9LVXDO0HPRU\:LWKLQDQG$FURVV)L[DWLRQV,Q.5D\QHUHG
(\H0RYHPHQWVDQG9LVXDO&RJQLWLRQ6FHQH3HUFHSWLRQDQG5HDGLQJSS
1HZ<RUN6SULQJHU



$UWLFOH,

.D\VHU & 1LHOVHQ . -  /RJRWKHWLV 1 .  )L[DWLRQV LQ 1DWXUDO 6FHQHV
,QWHUDFWLRQ RI ,PDJH 6WUXFWXUH DQG ,PDJH &RQWHQW 9LVLRQ 5HVHDUFK 

.UXJPDQ'0)R[5-)OHWFKHU-()LVFKHU30 5RMDV7+'R
$GROHVFHQWV $WWHQG WR :DUQLQJV LQ &LJDUHWWH $GYHUWLVLQJ" $Q (\H7UDFNLQJ
$SSURDFK-RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ5HVHDUFK
.XLVPD-6LPROD-8XVLWDOR/ g|UQL$7KH(IIHFWVRI$QLPDWLRQDQG
)RUPDW RQ WKH 3HUFHSWLRQ DQG 0HPRU\ RI 2QOLQH $GYHUWLVLQJ -RXUQDO RI
,QWHUDFWLYH0DUNHWLQJ
.XOOGRUII 0  $ 6SDWLDO 6FDQ 6WDWLVWLF &RPPXQLFDWLRQV LQ 6WDWLVWLFV 7KHRU\
DQG0HWKRGV
.XOOGRUII 0 $WKDV : ) )HXHU ( - 0LOOHU % $  .H\ & 5 
(YDOXDWLQJ &OXVWHU $ODUPV $ 6SDFH7LPH 6FDQ 6WDWLVWLF DQG %UDLQ &DQFHU LQ
/RV $ODPRV 1HZ 0H[LFR $PHULFDQ -RXUQDO RI 3XEOLF +HDOWK  

.XOOGRUII 0  1DJDUZDOOD 1  6SDWLDO 'LVHDVH &OXVWHUV 'HWHFWLRQ DQG
,QIHUHQFH6WDWLVWLFVLQ0HGLFLQH
/DPP & 0HOW]RII $ 1  'HFHW\ -  +RZ 'R :H (PSDWKL]H ZLWK
6RPHRQH :KR ,V 1RW /LNH 8V" $ )XQFWLRQDO 0DJQHWLF 5HVRQDQFH ,PDJLQJ
6WXG\-RXUQDORI&RJQLWLYH1HXURVFLHQFH
/DQGZHKU-50F*LOO$/ +HUUPDQQ$,WV*RWWKH/RRN7KH(IIHFW
RI)ULHQGO\DQG$JJUHVVLYH)DFLDO([SUHVVLRQVRQ3URGXFW/LNLQJDQG6DOHV
-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ
/RKVH*/&RQVXPHU(\H0RYHPHQW3DWWHUQVRQ<HOORZ3DJHV$GYHUWLVLQJ
-RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ
/XQGTYLVW ' (VWHYHV )  gKPDQ $  7KH )DFH RI :UDWK 7KH 5ROH RI
)HDWXUHV DQG &RQILJXUDWLRQV LQ &RQYH\LQJ 6RFLDO 7KUHDW &RJQLWLRQ DQG
(PRWLRQ



$UWLFOH,

0HLQHU 0  'HFNHU 5  (\H7UDFNLQJ ,QIRUPDWLRQ 3URFHVVLQJ LQ &KRLFH
%DVHG &RQMRLQW $QDO\VLV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 0DUNHW 5HVHDUFK 

gKPDQ $  'LPEHUJ 8  )DFLDO ([SUHVVLRQV DV &RQGLWLRQHG 6WLPXOL IRU
(OHFWURGHUPDO 5HVSRQVHV $ &DVH RI 3UHSDUHGQHVV" -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\
DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\
gKPDQ$/XQGTYLVW' (VWHYHV)7KH)DFHLQWKH&URZG5HYLVLWHG$
7KUHDW $GYDQWDJH ZLWK 6FKHPDWLF 6WLPXOL -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO
3V\FKRORJ\
3LHWHUV55RVEHUJHQ( +DUWRJ09LVXDO$WWHQWLRQWR$GYHUWLVLQJ7KH
,PSDFW RI 0RWLYDWLRQ DQG 5HSHWLWLRQ $GYDQFHV LQ &RQVXPHU 5HVHDUFK 

3LHWHUV 5 5RVEHUJHQ (  :HGHO 0  9LVXDO $WWHQWLRQ WR 5HSHDWHG 3ULQW
$GYHUWLVLQJ$7HVWRI6FDQSDWK7KHRU\-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ5HVHDUFK

3LHWHUV5 :DUORS/9LVXDO$WWHQWLRQ'XULQJ%UDQG&KRLFH7KH,PSDFW
RI 7LPH 3UHVVXUH DQG 7DVN 0RWLYDWLRQ ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI 5HVHDUFK LQ
0DUNHWLQJ
3LHWHUV5:DUORS/ :HGHO0%UHDNLQJ7KURXJKWKH&OXWWHU%HQHILWV
RI$GYHUWLVHPHQW2ULJLQDOLW\DQG)DPLOLDULW\IRU%UDQG$WWHQWLRQDQG0HPRU\
0DQDJHPHQW6FLHQFH
3LHWHUV 5  :HGHO 0  $WWHQWLRQ &DSWXUH DQG 7UDQVIHU LQ $GYHUWLVLQJ
%UDQG3LFWRULDODQG7H[W6L]H(IIHFWV-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ
3LHWHUV 5  :HGHO 0  *RDO &RQWURO RI $WWHQWLRQ WR $GYHUWLVLQJ 7KH
<DUEXV,PSOLFDWLRQ-RXUQDORI&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
3LHWHUV 5 :HGHO 0  %DWUD 5  7KH 6WRSSLQJ 3RZHU RI $GYHUWLVLQJ
0HDVXUHV DQG (IIHFWV RI 9LVXDO &RPSOH[LW\ -RXUQDO RI 0DUNHWLQJ  




$UWLFOH,

3RPSOXQ05LWWHU+ 9HOLFKNRYVN\%'LVDPELJXDWLQJ&RPSOH[9LVXDO

,QIRUPDWLRQ 7RZDUGV &RPPXQLFDWLRQ RI 3HUVRQDO 9LHZV RI D 6FHQH
3HUFHSWLRQ
5LQFN0 %HFNHU(66SLGHU)HDUIXO,QGLYLGXDOV$WWHQGWR7KUHDW7KHQ
4XLFNO\ $YRLG ,W (YLGHQFH )URP (\H 0RYHPHQWV -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO
3V\FKRORJ\
5RVEHUJHQ ( 3LHWHUV 5  :HGHO 0  9LVXDO $WWHQWLRQ WR $GYHUWLVLQJ $
6HJPHQW/HYHO$QDO\VLV-RXUQDORI&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
5XVVR-( /HFOHUF)$Q(\H)L[DWLRQ$QDO\VLVRI&KRLFH3URFHVVHVIRU
&RQVXPHU1RQGXUDEOHV-RXUQDORI&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
6KDR : /\H $  5XQGOH7KLHOH 6  'HFLVLRQV 'HFLVLRQV 'HFLVLRQV
0XOWLSOH3DWKZD\VWR&KRLFH,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI0DUNHW5HVHDUFK

7KRPDV6PLWK& %DUQHWW*6HHLQJ,V%HOLHYLQJ9LHZLQJ(QJDJHPHQWLQ
3ODFH%DVHG 0HGLD 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH (620$5 :RUOG 5HVHDUFK
&RQIHUHQFH:0
7HL[HLUD 7 6 :HGHO 0  3LHWHUV 5  0RPHQWWR0RPHQW 2SWLPDO
%UDQGLQJ LQ 79 &RPPHUFLDOV 3UHYHQWLQJ $YRLGDQFH E\ 3XOVLQJ 0DUNHWLQJ
6FLHQFH
9DQ GHU /DQV 5 3LHWHUV 5  :HGHO 0  &RPSHWLWLYH %UDQG 6DOLHQFH
0DUNHWLQJ6FLHQFH
9XO ( +DUULV & :LQNLHOPDQ 3  3DVKOHU +  3X]]OLQJO\ +LJK
&RUUHODWLRQV LQ I05, 6WXGLHV RI (PRWLRQ 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO &RJQLWLRQ
3HUVSHFWLYHVRQ3V\FKRORJLFDO6FLHQFH
:HGHO 0  3LHWHUV 5  (\H )L[DWLRQV RQ $GYHUWLVHPHQWV DQG 0HPRU\ IRU
%UDQGV$0RGHODQG)LQGLQJV0DUNHWLQJ6FLHQFH
:LQGKDJHU6+XW]OHU)&DUERQ&&2EHU]DXFKHU(6FKDHIHU.7KRUVWHQVHQ
7    *UDPPHU .  /D\LQJ (\HV RQ +HDGOLJKWV (\H 0RYHPHQWV
6XJJHVW)DFLDO)HDWXUHVLQ&DUV&ROOHJLXP$QWURSRORJLFXP


$UWLFOH,

:RRGLQJ'6(\H0RYHPHQWVRI/DUJH3RSXODWLRQV,,'HULYLQJ5HJLRQVRI

,QWHUHVW &RYHUDJH DQG 6LPLODULW\ 8VLQJ )L[DWLRQ 0DSV %HKDYLRU 5HVHDUFK
0HWKRGV,QVWUXPHQWV &RPSXWHUV
<HVLODGD<-D\&6WHYHQV5 +DUSHU69DOLGDWLQJWKH8VHDQG5ROHRI
9LVXDO (OHPHQWV RI :HE 3DJHV LQ 1DYLJDWLRQ ZLWK DQ (\H7UDFNLQJ 6WXG\
3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK,QWHUQDWLRQDO&RQIHUHQFHRQ:RUOG:LGH:HE
=KDQJ - :HGHO 0  3LHWHUV 5  6DOHV (IIHFWV RI $WWHQWLRQ WR )HDWXUH
$GYHUWLVHPHQWV $ %D\HVLDQ 0HGLDWLRQ $QDO\VLV -RXUQDO RI 0DUNHWLQJ
5HVHDUFK



$UWLFOH,,
3XUXFNHU & 6SURWW ' (  +HUUPDQQ $ LQ SUHSDUDWLRQ IRU VXEPLVVLRQ
(PRWLRQDO &DU )URQWV (OLFLWLQJ %LRORJLFDO 3UHSDUHGQHVV ZLWK 3URGXFW 'HVLJQ
-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF3V\FKRORJ\





(PRWLRQDO&DU)URQWV
(OLFLWLQJ%LRORJLFDO3UHSDUHGQHVVZLWK3URGXFW'HVLJQ




&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU
'DYLG(6SURWW
$QGUHDV+HUUPDQQ




&KULVWLDQ 3XUXFNHU LV 'RFWRUDO &DQGLGDWH RI 0DUNHWLQJ &HQWHU IRU &XVWRPHU
,QVLJKW8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU#XQLVJFK
'DYLG(6SURWWLV3URIHVVRURI0DUNHWLQJ&ROOHJHRI%XVLQHVV:DVKLQJWRQ6WDWH
8QLYHUVLW\3XOOPDQ86$'6SURWW#ZVXHGX
$QGUHDV +HUUPDQQ LV 3URIHVVRU RI 0DUNHWLQJ &HQWHU IRU &XVWRPHU ,QVLJKW
8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG$QGUHDV+HUUPDQQ#XQLVJFK

$UWLFOH,,

$EVWUDFW
%XLOGLQJ RQ DVVXPSWLRQV GHULYHG IURP HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ ZH LQYHVWLJDWHG YLHZHUV
UHDFWLRQV WRZDUGV WKH GHVLJQ RI FDU IURQWV LH DQ DXWRPRELOHV IDFH ZKLFK ZHUH
GHYHORSHGWREHWKUHDWHQLQJXVLQJEDVLFDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSULQFLSOHV3UHYLRXVVWXGLHV
VXJJHVW WZR RSSRVLWH KXPDQ UHDFWLRQV ZKHQ SUHVHQWHG ZLWK WKUHDWHQLQJ VWLPXOL
,QLWLDOO\WKUHDWHQLQJREMHFWVDWWUDFWKXPDQDWWHQWLRQHJZKHQH[SORULQJDVFHQHIRU
WKHILUVWWLPHEXWDIWHUZDUGVSHRSOHWHQGWRDYRLGVXFKVWLPXOLDVWKH\DUHOLNHO\WR
LQGXFH GLVFRPIRUW LQ WKH YLHZHU 7KLV SURSRVLWLRQ LV WHVWHG ZLWKLQ D SURGXFW GHVLJQ
FRQWH[W XVLQJ H\H WUDFNLQJ PHWKRGRORJ\ 5HVXOWV VKRZHG WKDW DXWRPRWLYH VWLPXOL QRW
RQO\ DFWLYDWH DIIHFWLYH GLPHQVLRQV RI FXVWRPHUV EXW DOVR OHDG WR VSHFLILF DXWRPDWLF
UHDFWLRQV WKDW FDQ EH H[SODLQHG E\ HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ 3UDFWLFDO LPSOLFDWLRQV IRU
SURGXFWGHVLJQDQGPDUNHWLQJDUHGLVFXVVHG

.H\ZRUGV $QWKURSRPRUSKLVP 3URGXFW 'HVLJQ (\H 7UDFNLQJ %LRORJLFDO
3UHSDUHGQHVV




$UWLFOH,,

,QWURGXFWLRQ
'LG WKDW FDU MXVW VWDUH DW PH OLNH D KXPDQ IDFH" $QG LI LW GLG ZKDW DIIHFWLYH
H[SUHVVLRQVGLGLWGLVSOD\":DVLWEHLQJDJJUHVVLYHRUZDVLWVPLOLQJ"$VH[HPSOLILHG
LQILFWLWLRXVPRYLHVOLNH7KH/RYH%XJIURPWKH\HDUIHDWXULQJDWDONLQJ9:
%HHWOH QDPHG +HUELH FKLOGUHQ DQG JURZQXSV KDYH DVNHG WKHPVHOYHV ZKHWKHU
SURGXFWVXVHGLQHYHU\GD\OLIHSRVVHVVVXFK KXPDQFKDUDFWHULVWLFV *LYHQWKDWSHRSOH
RIWHQDVFULEHDQLPLVWLFRUHYHQDQWKURSRPRUSKLFKXPDQOLNHSURSHUWLHVWRQRQOLYLQJ
REMHFWV $JJDUZDO  0F*LOO  LW PLJKW JR ZLWKRXW VD\LQJ WKDW GHVLJQHUV DQG
SURGXFW PDQDJHUV DUH UHDGLO\ ZLOOLQJ WR FRQVLGHU SOD\LQJ ZLWK D SURGXFWV KXPDQ
QDWXUH 'L6DOYR  *HPSHUOH  %H\RQG DQ DFDGHPLF GLVFXVVLRQ RI
DQWKURSRPRUSKLVPDQGXQGHUO\LQJFRJQLWLYHPHFKDQLVPV(SOH\:D\W] &DFLRSSR
:D\W]&DFLRSSR (SOH\PDUNHWHUVDQGGHVLJQHUVDUHOLNHO\WRILQGLW
EHQHILFLDO WR FRQVLGHU KRZ DQWKURSRPRUSKLVP FDQ EH HPSOR\HG LQ SURGXFW GHVLJQ
,QGHHGWKHSXUSRVHIXOHOLFLWDWLRQRIDQWKURSRPRUSKLFWKRXJKWVLVDSSHDOLQJDVLWPD\
KHOS HVWDEOLVK FORVHU FXVWRPHU ERQGV WULJJHU SRVLWLYH HPRWLRQDO DVVRFLDWLRQV DQG LQ
WKHEHVWFDVHFUHDWHDFOHDUGLIIHUHQWLDWLRQIURPFRPSHWLWLYHSURGXFWVFI$JJDUZDO 
0F*LOO)RUH[DPSOHZLWKUHVSHFWWRFDUVLWLVWKHUHIRUHRILQWHUHVWWRGHVLJQHUV
ZKDWDQWKURSRPRUSKLFH[SUHVVLRQVLWVEHVWRQDFDUVIDFHRUDWOHDVWZKDWDSSHDUVWR
EH PRVW DWWUDFWLYH WR FXVWRPHUV RU ZKLFK DIIHFWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQV SHRSOH H[SHULHQFH
ZKHQWKH\ORRNDWDFDUVIDFH/DQGZHKU0F*LOO +HUUPDQQ
5HVHDUFKVXJJHVWVWKDWDFDUVIDFHFDQHOLFLWDZLGHUDQJHRIUHDFWLRQVIURPFRQVXPHUV
WKDWPLJKWDFFUXHIURPDQDQWKURSRPRUSKLFGHVLJQ$QWKURSRPRUSKLFREMHFWVPLJKWEH
DEOH WR HYRNH IXQFWLRQDO DWWULEXWH DVVRFLDWLRQV HJ WKH FDU ORRNV G\QDPLF DQG
SRZHUIXO RU PLJKW HOLFLW VHPLFRQVFLRXV RU HYHQ XQFRQVFLRXV DIIHFWLYH UHDFWLRQV
HJ,WKLQNWKLVFDUORRNVG\QDPLFEXW,VRPHKRZIHHOWKUHDWHQHGE\LWVSUHVHQFH
PD\EH LW ORRNV D OLWWOH ELW WRR DJJUHVVLYH 0RUH EDVLF UHVHDUFK RQ HWKQRORJ\ DQG
GHYHORSPHQWDO SV\FKRORJ\ VXJJHVWV WKDW UHDFWLRQV WR VFKHPDWLF IDFHV VHUYLQJ DV NH\
VWLPXOL PLJKWQRWEH VROHO\DWDFRJQLWLYHOHYHOEXWUDWKHULQYROYH PRWRULFUHDFWLRQV
OLNH LQYROXQWDU\ DQG UHIOHFWRU\ DSSURDFK RU DYRLGDQFH UHVSRQVHV FI /RUHQ] 
7KLV ODWWHU ERG\ RI ZRUN UDLVHV WKH TXHVWLRQ ZKHWKHU DQWKURSRPRUSKLVP LQ SURGXFW
GHVLJQ LH FDU IURQWV FDQ OHDG WR UHDFWLRQV VLPLODU WR ZKDW ZRXOG EH H[SHULHQFHG
IURPYLHZLQJDKXPDQH[SUHVVLRQ



$UWLFOH,,

,QWKHFXUUHQWSDSHUWKLVTXHVWLRQLVDGGUHVVHGE\H[SORULQJZKHWKHUDQWKURSRPRUSKLF
DXWRPRWLYH GHVLJQV FDQ HOLFLW UHDFWLRQV LQ KXPDQ YLHZHUV WKDW ZHUH LQLWLDOO\
GHPRQVWUDWHG DV UHVSRQVHV WR RWKHU KXPDQ EHLQJV ,Q SDUWLFXODU SULRU UHVHDUFK KDV
VKRZQDQDGYDQWDJHIRUSURFHVVLQJWKUHDWHQLQJIDFHVVXFKWKDWWKHVHVWLPXOLFDQIRU
H[DPSOHEHGHWHFWHGIDVWHULQDFURZGRIRWKHUIDFHVUDWKHUWKDQWKHRWKHUZD\URXQG
gKPDQ /XQGTYLVW  (VWHYHV  ([WHQGLQJ WKHVH ILQGLQJV WR WKH FDVH RI
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ DQG WKH IDFHV RI DXWRPRELOHV ZH H[SORUH ZKHWKHU D
WKUHDWHQLQJFDUIDFHLVVLPLODUO\UHVSRQGHGWRE\WKHYLHZHUDVZRXOGEHDQDJJUHVVLYH
KXPDQ IDFH ,Q D VHULHV RI H\H WUDFNLQJ VWXGLHV ZH GHPRQVWUDWH WKDW
DQWKURSRPRUSKL]HG FDU IURQWV XQIROG VSHFLILF EHKDYLRUDO DQG DWWHQWLRQDO HIIHFWV
GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH DIIHFWLYH YDOXH WKH\ SURPRWH 7KHVH DWWHQWLRQDO HIIHFWV VKRZ WKDW
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ FDQ EH VSHFLILFDOO\ HPSOR\HG WR FDSWXUH WKH
FXVWRPHUV DWWHQWLRQ HYHQ EH\RQG ZKDW FDQ EH UHDGLO\ DVVHVVHG E\ OLNLQJ UDWLQJV
)LQDOO\ WKH UHVXOWV DUH GLVFXVVHG LQ WHUPV RI IXWXUH UHVHDUFK GLUHFWLRQV DQG SUDFWLFDO
LPSOLFDWLRQVIRUSURGXFWGHVLJQHUVLQVHDUFKRIWKHSHUIHFWIRUP)XUWKHUWKHILQGLQJV
DUH SUHVHQWHG IURP DQ HYROXWLRQDU\ SRLQW RI YLHZ GHWDLOLQJ KRZ WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN
FRQWULEXWHV WR WKH HPHUJLQJ ERG\ RI ZRUN H[DPLQLQJ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI HYROXWLRQDU\
SV\FKRORJ\LQWKHILHOGRIPDUNHWLQJ/\QQ.DPSVFKURHGHU 3HUHLUD6DDG 
*LOO

7KHRUHWLFDOEDFNJURXQG
,QWKHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQWKHWKHRUHWLFDOEDFNJURXQGWRRXUVWXG\LVSURYLGHG)LUVWZH
EULHIO\ GHVFULEH UHVHDUFK RQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLVP LQ SURGXFW GHVLJQ D ILHOG RI LQTXLU\
WKDWKDVMXVWUHFHQWO\HPHUJHG7KHWRSLFRIDQWKURSRPRUSKLVPLQSURGXFWGHVLJQZLOO
EHDSSURDFKHGIURPWKHYLHZSRLQWRIEDVLFSV\FKRORJ\%XLOGLQJVXSSRUWIRURXUIRFXV
RQ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI DIIHFWLYH IDFHV LQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ UHVHDUFK RQ
WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI KXPDQ IDFHV LV DOVR UHYLHZHG UDQJLQJ IURP WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI
GLIIHUHQWDIIHFWLYHH[SUHVVLRQVWRWKHVFKHPDWLFFRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQRIKXPDQIDFHV$V
RQH RI WKH FRUH PRWLYDWLRQV IRU RXU UHVHDUFK ZDV QRXULVKHG E\ REVHUYDWLRQV RI
LQKHULWHGKXPDQUHDFWLRQVWRZDUGVVWLPXOLRIHYROXWLRQDU\UHOHYDQFHWKHOLWHUDWXUHRQ
ELRORJLFDO SUHSDUHGQHVV LV UHYLHZHG ZLWK UHJDUG WR HYROXWLRQDU\ IDYRUHG UHDFWLRQV
WRZDUGV WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG VRFLDOO\ UHOHYDQW VWLPXOL )LQDOO\ K\SRWKHVHV ZLWKLQ WKH
FRQWH[WRIDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQDUHSURYLGHG



$UWLFOH,,

$QWKURSRPRUSKLVPLQSURGXFWGHVLJQ
$OWKRXJKSURGXFWGHVLJQKDVEHHQORQJNQRZQWREHDFRUHGULYHUWRSURGXFWVXFFHVV
WKHUROHRISURGXFWGHVLJQIRUPDUNHWSODFHRXWFRPHVKDVEHHQDKLVWRULFDOO\QHJOHFWHG
WRSLF LQ WKH PDUNHWLQJ OLWHUDWXUH IRU D ORQJ WLPH ,Q  KRZHYHU 3HWHU %ORFK
LQWURGXFHG D PRGHO RI FRQVXPHU UHVSRQVHV WR SURGXFW IRUP %ORFK  WKDW KDV
LQVSLUHG QHZ ZRUN LQ WKH DUHD 7KLV PRUH UHFHQW UHVHDUFK KDV VRXJKW WR SURYLGH
LQVLJKWV LQWR UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ YDULRXV HQWLWLHV RI D SURGXFWV GHVLJQ RQ WKH
FRQVXPHUVGLUHFWSV\FKRORJLFDOUHVSRQVHVDQGPRUHGLVWDOEHKDYLRUDOUHDFWLRQV
$QWKURSRPRUSKLVP LQ SURGXFW GHVLJQ ZDV UHFHQWO\ EURXJKW WR DWWHQWLRQ LQ PDUNHWLQJ
OLWHUDWXUHLQE\UHVHDUFKHUVLQYHVWLJDWLQJKRZFRQVXPHUVFDQDQWKURSRPRUSKL]H
SURGXFWV LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI GHVLJQ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV FRQJUXHQW ZLWK DVVRFLDWHG KXPDQ
VFKHPDWD $JJDUZDO  0F*LOO  %XLOGLQJ RQ WKHLU ZRUN QHZHU UHVHDUFK KDV
FODULILHG WKH UROH RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ URXJKO\ IROORZLQJ
UHFRPPHQGDWLRQVRIWKH%ORFKPRGHO
0RVWRIWKLVZRUNKDVH[DPLQHGWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFW
DQGSV\FKRORJLFDOSURFHVVHV)RUH[DPSOHWKHSUHVHQFHRIHDV\WRDQWKURSRPRUSKL]H
SURGXFWIHDWXUHVVXFKDVIDFHVRUVSHFLILFKHLJKWUHODWLRQVKLSVZDVIRXQGWRIDFLOLWDWH
DQWKURSRPRUSKLVPE\FRQVXPHUVDQGOHDGWRPRUHIDYRUDEOHHYDOXDWLRQV$JJDUZDO 
0F*LOO  )XUWKHU LW ZDV IRXQG WKDW DW OHDVW  RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV DVVRFLDWHG
DQLPDWH SURSHUWLHV WR UHDOOLIH FDU IURQWV :LQGKDJHU HW DO  DQG E\ UHO\LQJ RQ
JHRPHWULF PRUSKRPHWULF WHFKQLTXHV UHVHDUFKHUV ZHUH DEOH WR PRGHO KRZ FKDQJHV LQ
FDU GHVLJQV E\ FRPSUHVVLQJ RU VWUHWFKLQJ WKH FDU IURQW UHVXOWHG LQ DOWHUHG WUDLW
DVVRFLDWLRQV UHJDUGLQJ SDUWLFXODU WUDLW GLPHQVLRQV SRZHU DQG VRFLDELOLW\ 2WKHU
ZRUN KDV VKRZQ WKDW ZKHWKHU D SURGXFW LV DXWRPDWLFDOO\ DQWKURSRPRUSKL]HG E\ WKH
YLHZHURUQRWDOVRGHSHQGVXSRQWKHYLVXDODQJOHRIWKHSURGXFW0LHVOHU/DQGZHKU
+HUUPDQQ 0F*LOO5HFHQWUHVHDUFKKDVH[SORUHGVSHFLILFGHVLJQIHDWXUHVRI
FDU IDFHV DQG IRXQG D SUHIHUHQFH IRU VODQWHG KHDGOLJKWV LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK DQ
XSWXUQHG PRXWK /DQGZHKU 0F*LOO  +HUUPDQQ  3DUWLFLSDQWV DOVR QRWHG WKH
JULOOH GHVLJQ WR LQIOXHQFH WKH SHUFHLYHG IULHQGOLQHVV RI WKH FDU IURQW ZKLOH WKH
KHDGOLJKWV GHVLJQ LQIOXHQFHG ERWK DJJUHVVLYHQHVV DQG IULHQGOLQHVV %XLOGLQJ XSRQ
5XVVHOLWDSSHDUVWKDWWKHFRPELQDWLRQRIVODQWHGH\HVDQGDQXSWXUQHGPRXWK
LVDFFRUGLQJO\FRQVLGHUHGEHVWEHFDXVHLWHTXDOO\VWLPXODWHVSOHDVXUHDQGDURXVDO



$UWLFOH,,

)XUWKHUPRUHWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQSV\FKRORJLFDOUHVSRQVHVKDVEHHQDGGUHVVHGE\
VRPHZRUNV3URGXFWVWKDWDUHHDV\WRDQWKURSRPRUSKL]HKDYHEHHQVKRZQWROHDGWR
PRUH IDYRUDEOH SURGXFW HYDOXDWLRQV $JJDUZDO  0F*LOO  0RUHRYHU D UHFHQW
VWXG\ XVLQJ UHDO PDUNHW VDOHV GDWD VKRZHG WKDW DJJUHVVLYH KHDGOLJKWV DQG D SRVLWLYH
GHVLJQYHUVLRQRIWKHJULOOHKDGDSRVLWLYHLPSDFWRQFDUVDOHV/DQGZHKUHWDO
)LQDOO\ VLPLODULWLHV EHWZHHQ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFWV DQG KXPDQ
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV KDYH EHHQ VXEMHFW WR UHVHDUFK ,Q OLQH ZLWK H[SHFWDWLRQV LW ZDV IRXQG
WKDWDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWVHPERG\LQJXQIDYRUDEOHKXPDQFKDUDFWHULVWLFVFDQOHDG
WRORZHUSURGXFWHYDOXDWLRQV$JJDUZDO 0F*LOO2WKHUUHVHDUFKHUVFRQFOXGHG
IURP WKHLU UHVHDUFK WKDW SHRSOH DWWULEXWHG SHUVRQDOLW\ WUDLWV WR FDU IURQWV LQ D VLPLODU
IDVKLRQ DV WKH\ ZRXOG WR KXPDQ IDFHV :LQGKDJHU HW DO  2I UHOHYDQFH WR WKH
FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK LV UHFHQW ZRUN WKDW IRXQG VLPLODULWLHV LQ SDUWLFLSDQWV JD]H EHKDYLRU
ZKHQYLVXDOO\LQVSHFWLQJDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWVDQGKXPDQIDFHV:LQGKDJHUHW
DO-XVWOLNHZKHQORRNLQJDWKXPDQIDFHVFI$UPDQQ %OWKRIIWKH
KHDGOLJKWRUH\HVHFWLRQRIDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWVZDVIRXQGWRFDSWXUHYLHZHUV
JD]HV ZKLFK ZDV FRQVLGHUHG WR EH H[SODLQHG E\ D WKHRU\ RI ELRORJLFDO SUHSDUHGQHVV
7KH UHVHDUFKHUV LQWHUSUHW WKHLU ILQGLQJV DV HYLGHQFH IRU WKH H[LVWHQFH RI D WDVN
LQGHSHQGHQW DXWRPDWLFLW\ RI DQ HYROYHG SHUFHSWXDO ELDV WKDW FDQ EH HOLFLWHG E\
DQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWV
,QVXPPDU\WKLVERG\RIZRUNKDVSURYLGHGHYLGHQFHWKDW KXPDQVFDQDQGRIWHQGR
DQWKURSRPRUSKL]H SURGXFWV 7KLV UHVHDUFK KDV VKRZQ WKDW VRPH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF
GHVLJQVDUHSHUFHLYHGLQDZD\FRPSDUDEOHWRWKHKXPDQDQDORJDQGWKHFRPELQDWLRQ
RI FHUWDLQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV LV SUHIHUUHG RYHU RWKHU FRQILJXUDWLRQV
:KLOHPXFKRIWKLVZRUNKDVEHHQGHPRQVWUDWHGZLWKDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWIDFHV
LQWKHILHOGRIFDUGHVLJQILQGLQJVKDYHDOVREHHQFRQILUPHGIRURWKHUSURGXFWGHVLJQ
FDWHJRULHV VXFK DV EHYHUDJH ERWWOHV RU PRELOH SKRQHV $JJDUZDO  0F*LOO 
/DQGZHKU HW DO  $OWKRXJK H[LVWLQJ UHVHDUFK VXJJHVWV WKDW WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI
IDFHV SOD\V D XQLTXH UROH LQ KXPDQ SHUFHSWLRQ ZLWK YDULRXV GHPRQVWUDWHG HIIHFWV RQ
DWWHQWLRQDO DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ EHKDYLRUDO WHQGHQFLHV FI *D]]DQLJD ,YU\  0DQJXQ
WRWKHEHVWRIRXUNQRZOHGJHWKLVLQWHUSOD\KDVQRWEHHQLQYHVWLJDWHGLQWKHILHOG
RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ WKXV IDU ,Q WKH QH[W VHFWLRQV ZH SURYLGH
EDFNJURXQG IURP UHODWHG ILHOGV LQ SV\FKRORJLFDO UHVHDUFK UHJDUGLQJ IDFH SHUFHSWLRQ
DQGELRORJRLFDOSUHSDUHGQHVVLQWHUPVRISURGXFWGHVLJQ



$UWLFOH,,

%LRORJLFDOSUHSDUHGQHVVIDFHSHUFHSWLRQDQGSURGXFWGHVLJQ
-XGJLQJIURPWKHH[LVWLQJPDUNHWLQJOLWHUDWXUHRQDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWVWKHXVHRI
IDFLDO H[SUHVVLRQV DV SURGXFW GHVLJQ HOHPHQWV SOD\V D SUHGRPLQDQW UROH 7KLV LV QRW
VXUSULVLQJZKHQRQHFRQVLGHUVWKHLPSRUWDQWUROHRIKXPDQIDFHSHUFHSWLRQLQRXUGD\
WRGD\ VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQV ZKHWKHU LW EH WKH UHFRJQLWLRQ RI D NQRZQ IDFH DPRQJVW
VWUDQJHUV RU WKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ RI IDFLDO H[SUHVVLRQV 7KH QRWLRQ WKDW KXPDQV SRVVHVV
VSHFLDOL]HGSHUFHSWLRQDOPHFKDQLVPVIRUKXPDQIDFHSHUFHSWLRQLVFRQILUPHGLQUHFHQW
ZRUN FI +D[E\ +RIIPDQ  *REELQL  1RW RQO\ KDV UHVHDUFK LGHQWLILHG
SDUWLFXODU DQDWRPLFDO VWUXFWXUHV VXFK DV WKH IXVLIRUP J\UXV WKDW DUH VSHFLDOL]HG IRU
KXPDQIDFHSHUFHSWLRQ.DQZLVKHU0F'HUPRWW &KXQLWKDVDOVRFROOHFWHG
HYLGHQFHWKDWWKHVHVWUXFWXUHVDUHOLQNHGWRFRJQLWLYHELDVHVDQGSURFHVVLQJDGYDQWDJHV
DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK IDFH SHUFHSWLRQ 8QGHUO\LQJ PHFKDQLVPV KDYH EHHQ H[SORUHG LQ
FOLQLFDO FDVH VWXGLHV DQG H[SHULPHQWV ZLWK VXEMHFWV VXIIHULQJ IURP GLIIHUHQW W\SHV RI
DJQRVLD)DUDK:LOVRQ'UDLQ 7DQDND0RVFRYLWFK:LQRFXU %HKUPDQQ
 RU LQ ODERUDWRU\ VHWWLQJV H[SORULQJ SKHQRPHQD OLNH WKH IDFH LQYHUVLRQ HIIHFW
(OOLV7KRPSVRQ7RGDWHWKHUHLVVWLOODQRQJRLQJGLVFXVVLRQDVWRZK\
WKHVH RIWHQREVHUYHG SURFHVVLQJ DGYDQWDJHV IRU IDFHV RFFXU FI 5RXVVHOHW 0DFH 
)DEUH7KRUSH
:LWKLQIDFHSHUFHSWLRQWKHUHDSSHDUWREHVLJQLILFDQWGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSHUFHSWLRQDQG
SURFHVVLQJ RI IDFHV GLVSOD\LQJ GLIIHUHQW DIIHFWLYH VWDWHV 6RPH VWXGLHV XVXDOO\
HPSOR\LQJ YDULDQWV RI H[SHULPHQWDO VHDUFK WDVNV VXJJHVW WKDW WKUHDWHQLQJ IDFHV DUH
SURFHVVHG PRUH DFFXUDWHO\ DQG IDVWHU WKDQ IULHQGO\ IDFHV D ILQGLQJ WKDW KDV EHFRPH
UHIHUUHG WR DV WKH IDFH LQ WKH FURZG HIIHFW RU PRUH JHQHUDOO\ WKH WKUHDW DGYDQWDJH
HIIHFW )R[ HW DO  +DQVHQ  +DQVHQ  gKPDQ HW DO  7KHVH
SURFHVVLQJGLIIHUHQFHVDUHQRWQHFHVVDULO\FRQVFLRXV0RUULVgKPDQ 'RODQ
DQG JHQHUDOO\ DFW LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK HYROXWLRQDU\ SHUVSHFWLYHV RQ ELRORJLFDO
SUHSDUHGQHVV gKPDQ  'LPEHUJ  3UHSDUHGQHVV LQ WKLV FRQWH[W UHIHUV WR WKH
SK\ORJHQHWLFSUHZLULQJRIFHUWDLQUHDFWLRQVDQGDXWRPDWLFEHKDYLRUV
3UHSDUHGQHVVLVQRWVWULFWO\OLPLWHGWRIDFHSHUFHSWLRQEXWLVDSSOLFDEOHWRVHYHUDORWKHU
VWLPXOL WKDW KDYH SURYHG WR EH RI HYROXWLRQDU\ LPSRUWDQFH DV ZHOO 7KH FRQFHSW RI
SUHSDUHGQHVVLVFRPPRQO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKZRUNRI0DUWLQ6HOLJPDQ6HOLJPDQ
ZKR DUJXHG WKDW SUHSDUHGQHVV FDQ EH REVHUYHG DFURVV YDULRXV VSHFLHV LQ GLIIHUHQW
OHDUQLQJ FRQWH[WV DQG LW LV LPSRUWDQW WR WKH SDUWLFXODU ELRORJLFDO PDNHXS RI D FHUWDLQ
RUJDQLVP%LRORJLFDOSUHSDUHGQHVVLVDUJXHGWRXQGHUOLHPDQ\SV\FKRORJLFDOSURFHVVHV


$UWLFOH,,

VXFK DV ODQJXDJH DFTXLVLWLRQ IHDU DFTXLVLWLRQ DV LQ WKH FDVH RI SKRELDV DQG WKH
SHUFHSWLRQRIVRFLDOO\UHOHYDQWVWLPXOLVXFKDVWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIHPRWLRQDOHVSHFLDOO\
WKUHDWHQLQJ IDFHV gKPDQ  'LPEHUJ  $ JHQHUDO QRWLRQ XQGHUO\LQJ PRVW RI
WKHVHZRUNVLVWKDWDQ DGYDQWDJHH[LVWV ZLWKWKHSHUFHSWLRQRISRWHQWLDOO\WKUHDWHQLQJ
VWLPXOL VLQFH WKRVH ZKR SRVVHVV VXFK SHUFHSWXDO PHFKDQLVPV DQG UHVSRQG
DFFRUGLQJO\DUHSURYLGHGDQHYROXWLRQDU\DGYDQWDJHLQWHUPVRIVXUYLYDO
,QWKHFDVHRISUHSDUHGQHVVDQGIHDUDFTXLVLWLRQWKHUHLVHYLGHQFHIURPVSLGHUSKRELFV
WKDW WKUHDWHQLQJ VWLPXOL DUH IL[DWHG RQ PRUH UDSLGO\ \HW DYRLGHG LQ WKH ORQJHU WHUP
5LQFN %HFNHU7KHHYROXWLRQDU\PRWLYDWHGH[SODQDWLRQIRUWKLVVWUHVVHVWKDW
ZKHUHDVLWPDNHVVHQVHWRUHFRJQL]HGDQJHURXVDQLPDOVRUPRUHJHQHUDOO\WKUHDWHQLQJ
RFFXUUHQFHVLWDOVRPDNHVSHUIHFWVHQVHWRTXLFNO\DYRLGWKHPWKHUHDIWHU$WDPHWD
OHYHO SUHSDUHG UHDFWLRQV DSSHDU WR XQIROG DW FRQVHFXWLYH FRJQLWLYH DQG EHKDYLRUDO
VWHSVQDPHO\WKHVWLPXOXVGHWHFWLRQDVZHOODVWKHDIILOLDWHGDYRLGDQFHUHDFWLRQ6XFK
SUHYLRXV UHDVRQLQJ FDQ DOVR EH DSSOLHG WR IDFH SHUFHSWLRQ DOWKRXJK D XQLI\LQJ VWXG\
GRHV QRW H[LVW WR RXU NQRZOHGJH +RZHYHU VHSDUDWH UHVHDUFK WUDGLWLRQV RQ IDFH
SHUFHSWLRQQRQHWKHOHVVKDYHH[DPLQHGWKHVHSUHGLFWLRQVLQGHSHQGHQWO\7KHGHWHFWLRQ
DGYDQWDJHKDVFOHDUO\EHHQDGGUHVVHGE\WKHSUHYLRXVO\PHQWLRQHGVWXGLHVRQWKHWKUHDW
DGYDQWDJH HIIHFW ZKLOH WKH DYRLGDQFH UHDFWLRQ KDV EHHQ DGGUHVVHG VR IDU RQO\
LQGLUHFWO\LQDQH[SHULPHQWVWLPXODWLQJDIDFHVWDULQJFRQWHVW
5HFHQWZRUNKDVH[SORUHGWKHHIIHFWRIDJJUHVVLYHDQGKDSS\IDFHVRQJD]HUHVSRQVHV
ZLWKDVDFFDGHODWHQF\SDUDGLJP7HUEXUJ+RRLYHOG$DUWV.HQHPDQV YDQ+RQN
 7HUEXUJ HW DO  ZHUH DEOH WR VKRZ WKDW WKH VSHHG RI JD]H DYHUVLRQ IURP
IDFHV GLVSOD\LQJ DQJHU LV PRGHUDWHG E\ WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV GRPLQDQFHUHODWHG UHZDUG
VHQVLWLYLW\ VR WKDW SDUWLFLSDQWV VFRULQJ KLJK RQ GRPLQDQFHUHODWHG DVVHVVPHQW VFDOHV
VKRZHG D VORZHU JD]H DYHUVLRQ $V D NH\ PRWLYDWLRQ IRU WKHLU SDSHU WKHVH DXWKRUV
EULQJ XS WKH H[DPSOH RI D EDU ILJKW WKDW RIWHQ VWDUWV ZLWK D IDFHVWDULQJ FRQWHVW
$FFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU UHDVRQLQJ ZKLFK LV LQ SDUW UHO\LQJ RQ UHODWHG UHVHDUFK RQ SULPDWH
VRFLDOV\VWHPV0D]XU %RRWKVXFKDVWDULQJFRQWHVWPLJKWVHHNWRHVWDEOLVKD
GRPLQDQFHVXEPLVVLRQUHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ RSSRQHQWV %\ DYHUWLQJ RQHV JD]H WKLV
VWUHVVIXO DQG SRWHQWLDOO\ GDQJHURXV VLWXDWLRQ PD\ EH HQGHG DOO DW RQFH OHDGLQJ WR
VXGGHQUHOLHIRIWKHVLWXDWLRQDOGLVFRPIRUW+DSS\IDFHVRQWKHRWKHUKDQG PLJKWEH
FRQVLGHUHG DV DXWRPDWLF UHZDUG FXHV DQG FDQ WKXV OHDG WR DSSHWLWLYH EHKDYLRU
:LQNLHOPDQ%HUULGJH  :LOEDUJHU 7KLVUHDVRQLQJIRUIDFHSHUFHSWLRQLVLQ
DFFRUGZLWKWKHORJLFGHULYHGIURPHYROXWLRQDU\WKHRU\UHJDUGLQJWKUHDWHQLQJVWLPXOL


$UWLFOH,,

+\SRWKHVHV
,Q WKH FRQWH[W RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQV ZH H[SORUH ZKHWKHU VXFK
ELRORJLFDOSUHSDUHGQHVVDQGDVVRFLDWHGSURFHVVHVFDQDOVREHREVHUYHGZLWKFDUIDFHV
WKDWGLVSOD\GLIIHUHQWHPRWLRQDODIIHFW$FFRUGLQJWRRXUUHDVRQLQJZHH[SHFWWKDWWKH
KLJKO\VSHFLDOL]HGIDFLDOGHWHFWLRQV\VWHPRIKXPDQVZLOODWOHDVWLQSDUWDSSO\WRWKH
SHUFHSWLRQ RI REMHFWV GLVSOD\LQJ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF IDFHV VXFK DV ZLWK DXWRPRELOH FDU
IURQWV ,I WKLV ORJLF KROGV ZH ZRXOG H[SHFW WR REVHUYH WKH IROORZLQJ )LUVW WKH
SHUFHSWLRQDO V\VWHP IRU DIIHFWLYH FDUIDFHV LV H[SHFWHG WR EH KLJKO\ HIILFLHQW WKHUHE\
DOORZLQJSDUWLFLSDQWVWRLGHQWLI\WKHDIIHFWLYHFRQWHQWRIDQDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQW
HYHQ ZKHQ LW LV QRW LQ WKHLU GLUHFW YLVXDO DQG FRQVFLRXV IRFXV 6HFRQG VSHFLILF WR
LQKHULWHGLQYROXQWDU\EHKDYLRUDOUHVSRQVHVWKHGHWHFWLRQ PHFKDQLVPLVDQWLFLSDWHGWR
IROORZ D WZR OHYHO SURFHVV DV RXWOLQHG HDUOLHU $OORFDWLQJ PRUH DWWHQWLRQ WR D
WKUHDWHQLQJREMHFWWKDQWRDQRQWKUHDWHQLQJRQHSURYLGHVDQHYROXWLRQDU\DGYDQWDJH
E\DOORZLQJWKHYLHZHUWRSUHSDUHDQGUHDFWTXLFNHUWRDSRWHQWLDOO\KDUPIXOVLWXDWLRQ
$IWHUUHFRJQL]LQJWKHSRWHQWLDOWKUHDWDXWRPDWLFDOO\WULJJHUHGDYRLGDQFHUHDFWLRQVKHOS
WKH SHUVRQ WR HVFDSH WKH DGYHUVH VLWXDWLRQ :KLOH WKHUH LV JHQHUDO DJUHHPHQW RQ WKH
HYROXWLRQDU\ORJLFRIWKHVHUHDFWLRQVZHK\SRWKHVL]HWKDWWKHVHUHDFWLRQVFDQDOVREH
HOLFLWHGE\ DQWKURSRPRUSKLFGHVLJQHGSURGXFWVSDUWLFXODUO\ZLWKFDUIURQWV$VVXFK
WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN VHHNV WR H[WHQG WKH H[LVWLQJ NQRZOHGJH RQ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFWV LQ PDUNHWLQJ E\ VKRZLQJ WKDW YLHZHUV PLJKW QRW RQO\
H[SUHVV VSHFLILF OLNLQJ RU GLVOLNLQJ IRU DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFWV EXW DOVR VKRZ WKDW
WKHVH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF REMHFWV DUH DEOH WR HOLFLW HYROYHG FRJQLWLYH DQG EHKDYLRUDO
DXWRPDWLVPV%DVHGRQWKHSUHFHGLQJZHRIIHUWKHIROORZLQJK\SRWKHVHV
+ 7KHSHUFHSWLRQRIDIIHFWLYHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWVLVH[SHFWHGWREH
KLJKO\ HIILFLHQW VXFK WKDW VXSHUILFLDO H[SRVXUH WR D VWLPXOXV ZLOO VXIILFH
IRUPDNLQJYDOLGSUHIHUHQFHGHFLVLRQV
+ :KHQ FRQIURQWHG LQ D ILUVW FRQWDFW VLWXDWLRQ ZLWK DQWKURSRPRUSKLF
SURGXFW GHVLJQV YLHZHUV VKRXOG VSHQG PRUH DWWHQWLRQ RQ WKUHDWHQLQJ
GHVLJQIHDWXUHVWKDQRQIHDWXUHVWKDWGRQRWGLVSOD\DWKUHDW
+ :KHQ H[SRVHG WR DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ IRU ORQJHU YLHZHUV
VKRXOG H[KLELW D VWURQJHU DYRLGDQFH UHDFWLRQ IRU WKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ
IHDWXUHVWKDQIRUIHDWXUHVWKDWGRQRWGLVSOD\DWKUHDW



$UWLFOH,,

6WXG\RYHUYLHZ
7KHK\SRWKHVHVZHUHH[DPLQHGLQDQVSHFLILFDOO\GHVLJQHGH\HWUDFNLQJH[SHULPHQWDV
H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD LV FRPPRQO\ DVVXPHG WR UHIOHFW WKH GLVWULEXWLRQ RI WKH YLHZHUV
YLVXDO DWWHQWLRQ 'XFKRZVNL  DQG KDV DOVR EHHQ XVHG LQ SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK
5LQFN  %HFNHU  :LQGKDJHU HW DO  :LQGKDJHU HW DO  0RUHRYHU
H\HWUDFNLQJPHWKRGRORJ\DOORZVIRUDPRUHYDOLGPHDVXUHRIKXPDQYLVXDODWWHQWLRQ
WKDQ FODVVLFDO VHDUFK WDVNV DW OHDVW LQ WHUPV RI HFRORJLFDO YDOLGLW\ 7KH VWLPXOL FDU
IRQWV ZLWK DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV ZHUH GHYHORSHG RQ WKH EDVLV RI
H[LVWLQJ OLWHUDWXUH RQ VFKHPDWLF IDFHV DQG D SUHWHVW 7KH VHFWLRQ GHVFULELQJ WKH
H[SHULPHQWZLOOSURYLGHDGGLWLRQDOEDFNJURXQGDQGWKHWKHRUHWLFDOUDWLRQDOH
7KH H\H WUDFNLQJ H[SHULPHQW FRQVLVWHG RI VHYHUDO VXEVWXGLHV XVLQJ WKH VDPH VHW RI
UHVHDUFK SDUWLFLSDQWV 6WXG\ D LQYHVWLJDWHV YLHZHUV ILUVW FRQWDFW ZLWK
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU GHVLJQV LQ D GXDO FKRLFH WDVN ZKHUH SDUWLFLSDQWV KDG WR FKRRVH
WKHLUSUHIHUUHGFDUGHVLJQIURPWKHVWLPXOXVVHW7RVLPXODWHDUHDOOLIHVLWXDWLRQDVLW
ZRXOG EH IRU H[DPSOH ZLWK FDUV SDVVLQJ E\ SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH QRW DOORZHG WR ORRN
GLUHFWO\DWWKHFDUIDFHV7KHILUVWVWXG\DVVHVVHV+6WXG\EFORVHO\UHVHPEOHG6WXG\
DH[FHSWWKDWLWDOORZHGSDUWLFLSDQWVWRORRNGLUHFWO\DWWKHFDUIURQWVEHIRUHPDNLQJD
FKRLFHWKHUHIRUHFRQWULEXWLQJWRDQH[DPLQDWLRQRI+DQG+$VDILQDOWDVN6WXG\
SUHVHQWHGSDUWLFLSDQWVZLWKRQO\LQGLYLGXDOFDUIURQWVLQDVWDULQJFRQWHVWWDVNWDLORUHG
WRWHVW+
7DEOH
6WXG\RYHUYLHZ

^
^
^


&
&
^

,
,
,

,

(\HWUDFNLQJVWXG\
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ SURYLGHV GHWDLOV DERXW WKH PHWKRGV DQG UHVXOWV RI WKH H\H
WUDFNLQJH[SHULPHQWDQGLWVUHVSHFWLYHVXEVWXGLHV



$UWLFOH,,

6WLPXOXVPDWHULDO
)RURXUH\HWUDFNLQJVWXG\ZHXVHGDVWLPXOXVVHWWKDWZDVVSHFLILFDOO\FRQVWUXFWHGWR
UHIOHFW UHDOOLIH DQWKURSRPRUSKLFDOO\ GHVLJQHG FDU IURQWV ZKLOH DW WKH VDPH WLPH
LPSOHPHQWLQJSUHYLRXVILQGLQJVIURPIDFHSHUFHSWLRQOLWHUDWXUHWKXVWKHFRQVWUXFWLRQ
RI VWLPXOL ZDV KHDYLO\ JXLGHG E\ UHVHDUFK RQ DIIHFWLYH VFKHPDWLF IDFHV /XQGTYLVW
(VWHYHV  gKPDQ   7KRXJK VHYHUDO RSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQV IRU DIIHFWLYH
VFKHPDWLF IDFHV DUH UHSRUWHG LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH ZH GHFLGHG WR UHO\ XSRQ WKH /XQGTYLVW
VWLPXOXV VHW DV D UHYLHZ IRXQG LW WR VFRUH KLJKHVW RQ WKUHDW SHUFHSWLRQ VFDOHV DQG
UHDVRQDEO\KLJKRQQDWXUDOQHVVVFDOHV+RUVWPDQQ6HYHUDOPLQRUPRGLILFDWLRQV
VXFK DV FRPELQLQJ H\HEURZV DQG H\HV WR WKH VLQJOH HQWLW\ RI DQ DXWRV KHDGOLJKWV
ZHUHSHUIRUPHGWRDGDSWWKHPRGHOWRWKHUHDOPRIDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWGHVLJQ
7KHSV\FKRORJLFDOSURSHUWLHVRIWKHVWLPXOXVVHWZHUHDVVHVVHGLQDVHSDUDWHVWXG\DQG
FRQILUPHGWRPDWFKWKHVDPSOHPDWHULDORQUHOHYDQWFRUHDWWULEXWHV3XUXFNHU
7KHVWLPXOLFRQVLVWHGRIHLJKWDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWVWKDWZHUHGHVLJQHGWRGLIIHU
LQWKHLUDIIHFWLYHYDOXH7KHFDUIHDWXUHVKHDGOLJKWVORZHUDLUYHQWDQGVLGHDLUYHQWV
ZHUHGHVLJQHGWRUHVHPEOHVFKHPDWLFIDFLDOIHDWXUHVUHVSHFWLYHO\WKHH\HUHJLRQWKH
PRXWK DQG WKH FKHHNV (DFK GHVLJQ IHDWXUH H[LVWHG LQ D WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG D QRQ
WKUHDWHQLQJYDULDQWUHVXOWLQJLQDWRWDOVHWRIHLJKWFDUIURQWV[[%RWKIHDWXUH
YDULDQWV FRQVLVWHG RI WKH VDPH VKDSHV DQG RQO\ GLIIHUHG LQ RULHQWDWLRQ ZLWK DOO RWKHU
VWLPXOXV HQWLWLHV KHOG FRQVWDQW )LJXUH  GHSLFWV WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ
IHDWXUHH[SUHVVLRQVLQWZRH[DPSOHGHVLJQVIURPWKHZKROHVWLPXOXVVHWRIHLJKW



$UWLFOH,,


)LJXUH
([DPSOHVWLPXOL/HIW&DUIURQWZLWKWKHWKUHDWHQLQJYDULDQWVIRUKHDGOLJKWV
ORZHUDLUYHQWDQGVLGHDLUYHQWV5LJKW&DUIURQWFRQVLVWLQJRIWKHQRQ
WKUHDWHQLQJIHDWXUHYDULDQWVZLWKUHJLRQVRILQWHUHVWGUDZQDVDQRYHUOD\
7KHDGYDQWDJHRIWKLVSURFHGXUHLVWKDWGLIIHUHQFHVLQSHUFHSWLRQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKH
RYHUDOOFDUIURQWFDQEHDWWULEXWHGFOHDUO\WRWKHFKDQJHVRIWKHVWLPXOXVFRQILJXUDWLRQ
DQGQRWWRDQ\RWKHUGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHVWLPXOL([LVWLQJUHVHDUFKLQWKHILHOGRI
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV KDV VR IDU UHOLHG RQ WKH XVH RI OHVV VWDQGDUGL]HG VWLPXOL
VXFK DV IURQWDO YLHZV RI ' FRPSXWHU PRGHOV RI H[LVWLQJ FDU IURQWV ZLWKRXW
H[SHULPHQWDO PDQLSXODWLRQ RI WKH GHVLJQ :LQGKDJHU HW DO  RU SKRWRJUDSKV RI
H[LVWLQJ FDU IURQWV WKDW KDYH EHHQ H[SHULPHQWDOO\ PDQLSXODWHG HLWKHU E\ LQYHUWLQJ WKH
FDUVJULOOH$JJDUZDO 0F*LOORUE\DVNLQJSURIHVVLRQDOGHVLJQHUVWRDOWHUWKH
H[LVWLQJGHVLJQVWRDIULHQGO\RUDQDJJUHVVLYHYHUVLRQ/DQGZHKUHWDO
,Q WKH VWXG\ H[SHFWHG HIIHFWV RQ VHYHUDO VHPDQWLF DIIHFWLYH VFDOHV DQG OLNLQJ UDWLQJV
FRXOGEHVKRZQIRUKHDGOLJKWDQGORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQVEXWQRWIRUWKHVLGHDLUYHQWV
3XUXFNHU  )RU UHDVRQV RI HFRORJLFDO YDOLGLW\ KRZHYHU DQG IRU UHDVRQV RI
WKHRUHWLFDOJURXQGLQJWKHVHYDULDQWVZHUHOHIWLQWKHUHVHDUFKGHVLJQ7KHDSSURDFKWR
SUHVHQWLQJWKHVWLPXOXVPDWHULDOWRSDUWLFLSDQWVYDULHGEHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQWSKDVHVRU
VWXGLHVRIWKHH\HWUDFNLQJH[SHULPHQWDVVXEVHTXHQWO\RXWOLQHG

7HFKQLFDOLPSOHPHQWDWLRQ
7KHH[SHULPHQWDOSURFHGXUHZDVSURJUDPPHGDQGSUHVHQWHGXVLQJ(3ULPHY
3V\FKRORJ\ 6RIWZDUH 7RROV DQG GDWD UHFRUGLQJ ZDV SHUIRUPHG ZLWK 7RELL 6WXGLR
Y7RELL7HFKQRORJ\$%ZKLFKZDVDOVRXVHGIRUEDVLFSURFHVVLQJRIWKHH\H
WUDFNLQJ GDWD )RU WKH FROOHFWLRQ RI H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD D 7RELL ; VWDQGDORQH H\H


$UWLFOH,,

WUDFNLQJ XQLW ZDV XVHG 7KH XQLW FDSWXUHG WKH GDWD ZLWK DQ DFFXUDF\ RI  DW D
VDPSOLQJ UDWH RI  +] (\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD IRU DOO SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH UHFRUGHG DFURVV
WKH HQWLUH VWLPXOXV VHW ZLWK LQGLYLGXDO WULDOV LQGLFDWHG E\ WULJJHU VLJQDOV LQ WKH GDWD
RXWSXW 7KH VWLPXOXV PDWHULDO ZDV SUHVHQWHG RQ D LQFK 6DPVXQJ 6\QF0DVWHU
70 PRQLWRU ZLWK D VFUHHQ UHVROXWLRQ RI  [  SL[HOV 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH
VHDWHG DERXW  FP DZD\ IURP WKH VFUHHQ +HDG PRYHPHQWV ZHUH DOORZHG LQ D ER[
ZLWKDVLGHOHQJWKRIURXJKO\FP

3DUWLFLSDQWV
,QLWLDOO\1 VXEMHFWVVWXGHQWVDQGXQLYHUVLW\VWDIIWRRNSDUWLQWKHH[SHULPHQWIRU
SDUWLDOFRXUVHFUHGLWDQGRUWKHSDUWLFLSDWLRQLQDUDIIOH3DUWLFLSDQWVPHDQDJHZDV0
  \HDUV 6'    ZHUH IHPDOHV $OO SDUWLFLSDQWV LQLWLDOO\ DJUHHG WR
SDUWLFLSDWH LQ DOO WKUHH VWXGLHV RI WKH H\H WUDFNLQJ H[SHULPHQW LQ WKH RUGHU GHVFULEHG
EHORZ 6HYHUDO SDUWLFLSDQWV KDG WR EH H[FOXGHG IURP VRPH VXEVWXG\ DQDO\VHV IRU
WHFKQLFDODQGRWKHUUHDVRQVDVZLOOEHVXEVHTXHQWO\QRWHG

6WXG\D
%DFNJURXQG
$FFRUGLQJ WR VRPH UHVHDUFKHUV SDUWV RI WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ D YLVXDO VFHQH FDQ EH
XQFRQVFLRXVO\ SURFHVVHG %\ SHULSKHUDOO\ YLHZLQJ WKH YLVXDO VFHQH WKH YLHZHU
SUHDWWHQWLYHO\IRUPVD JLVWRIWKHRYHUDOOVFHQHWKDWGLUHFWVKLVRU KHUJD]HSDWWHUQV
IRUWKHVXEVHTXHQWFRQVFLRXVH[SORUDWLRQ&KDQGRQ+XWFKLQVRQ %UDGORZ <RXQJ
+HQGHUVRQ +ROOLQJZRUWK$FFRUGLQJWRWKHUHVHDUFKHUVSHRSOHDUHDEOH
WRLGHQWLI\VHYHUDOJHQHUDODVSHFWVRIDYLVXDOVFHQHVXFKDVVHPDQWLFFDWHJRU\RULWV
VSDWLDOOD\RXWEXWQRWGHWDLOVOLNHDEUDQGQDPHWKDWZRXOGUHTXLUHDGLUHFWIL[DWLRQ
:HH[SHFWWKDWWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIDWKUHDWKRZHYHUVKRXOGEHDPRQJVWWKRVHHDUO\WR
EHGHWHFWHG HQWLWLHV 5HVHDUFK IURP FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ DUJXHV IRU D IDVW
SUHDWWHQWLRQDO SDWK RI SURFHVVLQJ IRU WKUHDWHQLQJ VWLPXOL JLYH DGGLWLRQDO HYLGHQFH IRU
WKLVH[SHFWDWLRQ/HGRX[)RUKXPDQOLNHIDFHVSDUWLFXODUO\DIIHFWLYHRQHVVXFK
DV PDQLSXODWHG LQ RXU DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQW RQH PLJKW H[SHFW IURP DQ
HYROXWLRQDU\ SHUVSHFWLYH WKDW EHKDYLRUHIILFLHQW GHWHFWLRQ PHFKDQLVPV KDYH HYROYHG
$TXLFNSHUFHSWLRQRIVXFKVWLPXOLZRXOGFOHDUO\OHDGWRDQHYROXWLRQDU\DGYDQWDJH,I


$UWLFOH,,

RXU DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV UHVHPEOH DIIHFWLYH KXPDQ IDFHV LW VKRXOG EH DOVR QR
VXUSULVH LI SDUWLFLSDQWV DUH DEOH WR SHUFHLYH WKRVH SURGXFWV HYHQ ZKHQ QRW ORRNLQJ
GLUHFWO\ DW WKHP DQG FRPH WR SUHIHUHQFH FKRLFHV WKDW DUH VLPLODU WR WKRVH ZKHQ WKH
SURGXFWVDUHORRNHGDWGLUHFWO\6WXG\DZDVGHVLJQHGWRWHVWWKLVH[SHFWDWLRQDQGLWV
UHVXOWVFDQEHGLUHFWO\FRPSDUHGZLWK6WXG\EZKLFKDOORZVIRUDQDVVHVVPHQWRI+
3DUWLFLSDQWVLQDQDO\VLV
$OO SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP WKH LQLWLDO VDPSOH SDUWLFLSDWHG LQ WKLV ILUVW VWXG\ DQG QR
SDUWLFLSDQWV KDG WR EH H[FOXGHG IURP WKH H[SHULPHQW DV QR H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD ZHUH
DQDO\]HG LQ WKLV SDUW RI WKH H[SHULPHQW DQG UHFRUGLQJ IRU WKH FKRLFH GDWD GLG QRW
SURGXFHDQ\PLVVLQJGDWD
7ULDOVDQGSURFHGXUH
3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH VKRZQ SDLUV RI H[SHULPHQWDOO\ PDQLSXODWHG FDU IURQWV LQ D ZLWKLQ
VXEMHFWGHVLJQ%\SUHVVLQJEXWWRQVZLWKWKHLUOHIWDQGULJKWLQGH[ILQJHUVSDUWLFLSDQWV
KDG WR FKRRVH WKH FDU IURQW ZKLFK WKH\ OLNHG EHVW 3DUWLFLSDQWV KDG WR PDNH WKHLU
SUHIHUHQFH GHFLVLRQ ZLWKRXW GLUHFWO\ ORRNLQJ DW WKH FDU IURQWV EXW IURP WKH FRUQHU RI
WKHH\HRQO\7RHQVXUHWKLVVLWXDWLRQWKHH\HWUDFNHUZDVSURJUDPPHGWRVHUYHDVDQ
LQSXWGHYLFHWKDWWULJJHUHGDEODQNVFUHHQLISDUWLFLSDQWVWULHGWRORRNGLUHFWO\DWRQHRI
WKH FDU SLFWXUHV $ IL[DWLRQ FURVV ZDV VKRZQ IRU  V EHIRUH WKH SLFWXUHV DSSHDUHG WR
LQGLFDWHWKHFHQWHURIWKHVFUHHQ
3DLUVRIFDUIURQWVIURPWKHHQWLUHVWLPXOXVVHWZHUHSUHVHQWHGWRWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV(DFK
RI WKH FDUIURQWV LQ WKH SDLUV FRPSOHPHQWHG WKH RWKHU FDU IURQW LQ DOO GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV
)RUH[DPSOHDFDUZLWKWKHWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVGHVLJQZDVRQO\VKRZQZLWKDQRWKHU
FDU IURQW ZLWK WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV GHVLJQ $V D UHVXOW IRXU SDLUV RI FDU
IURQWVZHUHVKRZQFI7DEOH
7KHFDUIURQWVZHUHVKRZQRQWKHOHIWDQGWKHULJKWVLGHIURPWKHFHQWHURIWKHVFUHHQ
(DFK SLFWXUH FRYHUHG  RI WKH ZLGWK RI WKH VFUHHQ DQG  RI WKH KHLJKW RI WKH
VFUHHQ VR WKDW WKH FDU IDFHV UHVHPEOHG UHDO FDU IURQWV VHHQ IURP D GLVWDQFH RI
DSSUR[LPDWHO\PHDFKFDUIURQWZDVVKRZQRQERWKVLGHVRIWKHVFUHHQGXULQJWKH
FRXUVHRIWKHVWXG\



$UWLFOH,,

3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH HQFRXUDJHG WR PDNH WKHLU FKRLFH DV IDVW DV SRVVLEOH $ WUDLQLQJ
SURFHGXUHZDVFDUULHGRXWEHIRUHWKHH[SHULPHQWWRHQVXUHSDUWLFLSDQWVXQGHUVWDQGLQJV
RIWKHSURFHGXUHDQGDUHKHDUVDORIWKHFKRLFHSURFHGXUH1RQHRIWKHVXEMHFWVUHSRUWHG
WKDW KH RU VKH KDG WKH SRVVLELOLW\ WR ORRN GLUHFWO\ DW WKH SUHVHQWHG VWLPXOL 7ULDOV LQ
ZKLFK SDUWLFLSDQWV ORRNHG LQYROXQWDULO\ IDVW DW RQH RI WKH FDU IURQWV IDVWHU WKDQ 
PV ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP WKH DQDO\VLV DV ZH FRXOG QRW UXOH RXW WKDW WKH\ KDG QRW
SHUFHLYHGDQLQGLUHFWJODQFHRIWKHFDURUKDGPDGHDUDQGRPFKRLFH7ULDOVLQZKLFK
SDUWLFLSDQWVH[FHHGHGDGHFLVLRQWLPHOLPLWRIVZHUHDOVRH[FOXGHG
5HVXOWV
&KRLFHGDWD7KHSDUWLFLSDQWVDQVZHUVDUHGLVSOD\HGLQ7DEOH$OOSDUWLFLSDQWVPDGH
WZR FKRLFHV IRU HDFK SDLU ZLWK GLVSOD\ VLGHV VZLWFKHG IRU WKH SDLU RI FDU IURQWV
-XGJLQJ IURP WKH IUHTXHQF\ WDEOH D WHQGHQF\ H[LVWV WR FKRRVH WKH FDU IURQW ZLWK WKH
WKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWV GHVLJQHVSHFLDOO\ ZKHQWKH\ZHUHVKRZQLQ FRPELQDWLRQZLWK
WKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJVLGHDLUYHQWVIHDWXUH)RUVWDWLVWLFDODVVHVVPHQWELQRPLDOWHVWVIRU
HDFK FRPSDULVRQ ZHUH FDOFXODWHG 7ZR RI WKH IRXU ELQRPLDO WHVWV FDOFXODWHG IRU WKH
SDLUZLVH FRPSDULVRQV FRXOG LGHQWLI\ VWDWLVWLFDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW FKRLFH WHQGHQFLHV LQ WKH
VDPSOH )HDWXUH FRPELQDWLRQV RI WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW DQG QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ VLGH DLU
YHQWIHDWXUHVZHUHVLJQLILFDQWO\SUHIHUUHGRYHUWKHRSSRVLQJFRPELQDWLRQVSV
:KLOHDVDWHQGHQF\SDUWLFLSDQWVDOVRSUHIHUUHGFRPELQDWLRQVRIWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKW
DQGVLGHDLUYHQWGHVLJQVRYHUWKHRSSRVLQJFRPELQDWLRQVWKLVREVHUYDWLRQZDVQRWRI
VWDWLVWLFDO VLJQLILFDQFH LQ RXU VDPSOH SV !  $ JHQHUDOL]HG OLQHDU PL[HG PRGHO
VXPPLQJXSWKHUHVXOWVIURP6WXG\DDQG6WXG\ELVUHSRUWHGLQWKHUHVXOWVVHFWLRQ
RI6WXG\E



$UWLFOH,,

7DEOH
)UHTXHQFLHVRIFDUFKRLFHVZLWKRXWGLUHFWJD]HVIURP6WXG\D



,^>
,^>
,^>
,^>

,^>
,^>
,^>
,^>


E



E

+ KHDGOLJKWV6$ VLGHDLUYHQWV/$ ORZ HUDLUYHQWVW WKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQQ QRQWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQ

&RQFOXVLRQ
7KH FKRLFH SDWWHUQ REVHUYHG LQ 6WXG\ D GRHV QRW FRQWUDGLFW ILQGLQJV IURP SUHYLRXV
OLWHUDWXUH RQ OLNLQJ UDWLQJV RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV FI /DQGZHKU HW DO 
:LQGKDJHUHWDO$VDWHQGHQF\WKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVGHVLJQVDSSHDUWREHWKH
FRUH GULYHUV IRU SDUWLFLSDQWV SUHIHUHQFH MXGJPHQWV FRQILUPLQJ WKH SUHYLRXVO\
PHQWLRQHG UROH RI KHDGOLJKW LPSRUWDQFH DQG WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW SUHIHUHQFH $
FRPSDULVRQ RI 6WXG\ D DQG 6WXG\ E ZLWK UHJDUG WR + ZLOO EH FRQGXFWHG LQ WKH
GLVFXVVLRQRI6WXG\E$WILUVWJODQFHWKHUHVXOWVUHVHPEOHWKRVHRI6WXG\ELQODUJH
SDUWV DOWKRXJK PRVW SDUWLFLSDQWV UHSRUWHG VHYHUH GLIILFXOWLHV LQ FRQVFLRXVO\ PDNLQJ
WKHLUGHFLVLRQ$VGLVFXVVHGEHORZZHZLOOILQGVXSSRUWIRU+ZLWKVRPHOLPLWDWLRQV

6WXG\E
%DFNJURXQG
7KH DLP RI 6WXG\ E ZDV WR H[SORUH ZKHWKHU WKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV LQ WKH
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV DWWUDFW PRUH YLVXDO DWWHQWLRQ WKDQ QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ
IHDWXUHV + /XQGTYLVW HW DO  5LQFN  %HFNHU  $V WKH VWXG\ GHVLJQ
UHVHPEOHVWKHFKRLFHWDVNIURP6WXG\DDGLUHFWFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQWKHWZRVWXGLHV
LV SRVVLEOH :LWK WKDW ZH VHHN WR DGGUHVV WKH VLPLODULW\ RI SHULSKHUDO SHUFHSWLRQ DQG
GLUHFWSHUFHSWLRQDVIRUPXODWHGLQ+)XUWKHUPRUHSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKKDVHPSKDVL]HG
WKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHKHDGOLJKWVIRUYLVXDODWWHQWLRQFDSWXUH:LQGKDJHUHWDOD
ILQGLQJZHH[SHFWHGWRUHSOLFDWHLQRXUVWXG\



$UWLFOH,,

3DUWLFLSDQWVLQDQDO\VLV
&RQFHUQLQJ WKH FKRLFH GDWD QRQH RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP WKH RYHUDOO H\H WUDFNLQJ
H[SHULPHQW KDG WR EH H[FOXGHG DV DOO GDWD ZHUH FRPSOHWHO\ UHFRUGHG 5HJDUGLQJ WKH
H\HWUDFNLQJGDWDLQ6WXG\EKRZHYHUQLQHSDUWLFLSDQWVKDGWREHH[FOXGHGIURPWKH
DQDO\VLV JLYHQ WKDW OHVV WKDQ  RI WKHLU WUDFNLQJ GDWD ZDV SURSHUO\ ORJJHG $V D
UHVXOWWKHQXPEHURISDUWLFLSDQWVZDV1 IRUWKLVSDUWRIWKHDQDO\VLVIHPDOHV
ZLWKDPHDQDJHRI0 \HDUV6' 
7ULDOVDQGSURFHGXUH
7KHSURFHGXUHDQGWKHWULDOVZHUHODUJHO\LGHQWLFDOWR6WXG\DH[FHSWWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWV
ZHUH DOORZHG WR LQVSHFW GLUHFWO\ WKH FDU IURQWV EHIRUH GHFLGLQJ ZKLFK RQH WKH\
SUHIHUUHG $IWHU VHHLQJ D IL[DWLRQ FURVV IRU  V DW WKH FHQWHU RI WKH VFUHHQ WKH
SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH VKRZQ WZR SLFWXUHV RI FDU IURQWV OHIW DQG ULJKW IURP WKH FHQWHU
SRVLWLRQWKHVSHFLILFSRVLWLRQRIHDFKFDUIURQWZDVGHWHUPLQHGE\UDQGRPL]DWLRQ%\
SUHVVLQJ EXWWRQV ZLWK WKHLU OHIW DQG ULJKW LQGH[ ILQJHUV SDUWLFLSDQWV LQGLFDWHG WKHLU
SUHIHUHQFHIRURQHRIWKHWZRGHVLJQV
$VEHIRUHWKHFDUIURQWVZHUHWDNHQIURPWKHLQLWLDOVWLPXOXVVHWDQGWKHSDLUVGLIIHUHG
ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKH DIIHFWLYH YDOXH RI DOO PDQLSXODWHG GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV (DFK FDU ZDV
VKRZQRQWKHOHIWDVZHOODVRQWKHULJKWVLGHRIWKHVFUHHQ
7KLVWLPHWKHH\HWUDFNHUZDVXVHGWRWUDFNSDUWLFLSDQWVH\HPRYHPHQWVZKLOHPDNLQJ
WKHLU GHFLVLRQV 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH WROG WR PDNH D GHFLVLRQ DV VRRQ DV SRVVLEOH $
WUDLQLQJSURFHGXUHZDVFDUULHGRXWEHIRUHWKHH[SHULPHQWWRHQVXUHWKHXQGHUVWDQGLQJ
RIWKHSURFHGXUH
5HVXOWV
&KRLFH GDWD &RQFHUQLQJ WKH FKRLFH GDWD WKH UHVXOWV DUH VXPPDUL]HG LQ 7DEOH 
6WDWLVWLFDOO\VLJQLILFDQWFKRLFHSUHIHUHQFHVPDQLIHVWHGIRUDOORIFKRLFHSDLUVSV
&DU IURQW GHVLJQV FRQWDLQLQJ WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ ZHUH VLJQLILFDQWO\
SUHIHUUHGRYHUWKHLURSSRVLQJGHVLJQV



$UWLFOH,,

7DEOH
)UHTXHQFLHVRIFDUFKRLFHVZLWKGLUHFWJD]HVDOORZHGIURPH\HWUDFNLQJ6WXG\E



,^>
,^>
,^>
,^>

,^>
,^>
,^>
,^>


E



E

+ KHDGOLJKWV6$ VLGHDLUYHQWV/$ ORZ HUDLUYHQWVW WKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQQ QRQWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQ

7R PRGHO SDUWLFLSDQWV FKRLFHV ZLWK GLUHFW JD]HV DOORZHG 6WXG\ E LQ FRQWUDVW WR
ZKHQGLUHFWJD]HVZHUHQRWDOORZHG6WXG\DDJHQHUDOL]HGOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHOZDV
FDOFXODWHG ZLWK WKH OPHUIXQFWLRQ RI WKH OPH SDFNDJH RI WKH VWDWLVWLF VRIWZDUH 5
%DWHV0DHFKOHU%RONHU WKH5&RUH7HDP,QWKHPRGHOFKRLFHZDVVHWDV
WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH ZKLOH WKH LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV ZHUH WKH GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV
KHDGOLJKWV VLGH DLU YHQWV DQG ORZHU DLU YHQWV HDFK H[LVWLQJ LQ WZR YDULDQWV D
WKUHDWHQLQJDQGDQRQWKUHDWHQLQJYHUVLRQDQGWKHDOORZDQFHRIGLUHFWJD]HVRQWKHFDU
IURQWV6WXG\DQRGLUHFWJD]HVDOORZHG6WXG\EGLUHFWJD]HVDOORZHG,QWHUDFWLRQ
HIIHFWVEHWZHHQWKHDIRUHPHQWLRQHGGHVLJQIDFWRUVDQGWKHODWWHUJD]HIDFWRUZHUHDOVR
LQFOXGHG7KHUHVXOWVRIWKLVPRGHODUHGLVSOD\HGLQ7DEOH




,QGHWDLOWKHPRGHOLQJSURFHGXUHZDVSHUIRUPHGDVIROORZV(DFKFRPSDULVRQFRQVLVWHGRISDLUZLVHVWLPXOLRI
FDU IURQWV WKDW FRQWUDVWHG HDFK RWKHU ZLWK UHVSHFW WR DOO DIIHFWLYH FDU IHDWXUHV HJ D FDU IURQW ZLWK WKH
WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ ZDV DOZD\V FRPSDUHG ZLWK D FDU IURQW FRQWDLQLQJ WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW
GHVLJQ 7KXV E\ NQRZLQJ WKH VWLPXOXV RQ WKH OHIW VLGH RI WKH VFUHHQ WKH RWKHU VWLPXOXV FDQ EH LQIHUUHG WKH
ORFDWLRQRQWKHVFUHHQZDVUDQGRPL]HGDQGUHVXOWHGLQURXJKO\HTXDOGLVWULEXWLRQV$VDFRQVHTXHQFHZHRQO\
PRGHOHG ZKHWKHU SDUWLFLSDQWV FKRRVH WKH OHIWKDQG VWLPXOXV RI HDFK FRPSDULVRQ RU QRW 7KLV UHDVRQLQJ LV
LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHLQWHUSUHWDWLRQRIWKHPRGHOUHVXOWV7KHVLJQLILFDQWO\QHJDWLYHFRHIILFLHQWIRUQRGLUHFWJD]HV
DOORZHG LQGLFDWHV WKDW SDUWLFLSDQWV WHQG WR FKRRVH WKH OHIWKDQG FDU OHVV RIWHQ ZKHQ WKH\ DUH QRW DOORZHG WR
GLUHFWO\ORRNDWWKHFDUIURQWV



$UWLFOH,,

7DEOH
*HQHUDOL]HGOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHORIFDUFKRLFHVFRPELQLQJUHVXOWVIURP6WXGLHVD
DQGE
>>
/
/

6(

/
,
^
>

,
^
>

+ KHDGOLJKWV6$ VLGHDLUYHQWV/$ ORZ HUDLUYHQWVEDVHOLQH WKUHDWHQLQJ

GHVLJQQ QRQWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQQRGLUHFW QRGLUHFWJD]HVDOORZ HG

6LJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV DUH IRXQG IRU WKH KHDGOLJKW DQG ORZHU DLU YHQW GHVLJQV SV  
7KH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ UHVXOWHG LQ VLJQLILFDQWO\ KLJKHU FKRLFH SUREDELOLWLHV
ZKLOH WKH VDPH LV WUXH IRU WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQWV GHVLJQ $ VLJQLILFDQW
LQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWGHVLJQDQGWKHVWXG\ZLWKQRGLUHFW
JD]HV DOORZHG S   LQGLFDWHG WKDW WKLV ODWWHU FRQGLWLRQ UHVXOWHG LQ PRUH FKRLFHV
LQYROYLQJ WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV 8QGHUOLQLQJ WKH ILQGLQJV RI WKH ELQRPLDO
WHVWV PDUJLQDOO\ VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ HPHUJHG EHWZHHQ WKH JD]H FRQGLWLRQ DQG WKH
VLGHDLUYHQWVGHVLJQS $VDWHQGHQF\WKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJVLGHDLUYHQWVGHVLJQ
UHVXOWHGLQKLJKHUFKRLFHSUREDELOLWLHVDVFRPSDUHGWRWKHFRQGLWLRQZLWKGLUHFWJD]HV
DOORZHG 3UHGLFWHG SUREDELOLWLHV FDOFXODWHG IURP WKH PRGHOV IL[HG HIIHFWV DUH
GLVSOD\HGLQ7DEOH



$UWLFOH,,

7DEOH
)L[HGHIIHFWVSUHGLFWHGSUREDELOLWLHVIURPWKHJHQHUDOL]HGOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHORQ
6WXGLHVDDQGE
,

^

>

'

+ KHDGOLJKWV6$ VLGHDLUYHQWV/$ 
ORZ HUDLUYHQWVW WKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQQ 
QRQWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQQRGLUHFW QR
GLUHFWJD]HVDOORZ HG6WXG\DGLUHFW 
GLUHFWJD]HVDOORZ HG6WXG\E

(\HWUDFNLQJGDWD7KHH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDFROOHFWHGIURP6WXG\EZHUHDOVRDQDO\]HG
5HJLRQV RI LQWHUHVW ZHUH GUDZQ DURXQG WKH VHSDUDWH GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV DV GHSLFWHG LQ
)LJXUH  /HIW DQG ULJKW KHDGOLJKWV ZHUH FRQMRLQHG WR D VLQJOH 52, DV WKH\ FDQ EH
FRQVLGHUHG DV D VLQJOH GHVLJQ XQLW (\H WUDFNLQJ PHWULFV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG VXFK DV WKH
WLPH WR ILUVW IL[DWLRQ WKH ILUVW IL[DWLRQ GXUDWLRQ DQG WKH WRWDO IL[DWLRQ GXUDWLRQ 7KH
HIIHFWRIWKHGHVLJQIHDWXUHHJKHDGOLJKWVDQGORZHUDLUYHQWDQGDIIHFWLYHYDOXHRI
WKHIHDWXUHWKUHDWHQLQJRUQRQWKUHDWHQLQJDVZHOODVWKHLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQIHDWXUH
ORFDWLRQDQGDIIHFWLYHYDOXHRQWKHH\HWUDFNLQJPHWULFVZHUHPRGHOHGLPSOHPHQWLQJD
OLQHDU PL[HGPRGHO DSSURDFK 7KLV DSSURDFK DOORZHG IRU XV WR DFFRXQW IRU WKH LQWHU
SHUVRQ KHWHURJHQHLW\ E\ VSHFLI\LQJ D UDQGRP LQWHUFHSW )LW]PDXULFH /DLUG  :DUH
 $V WKH WKH FKRLFH DQDO\VHV LQ 6WXG\ D DQG 6WXG\ E ZHUH LQFRQFOXVLYH
FRQFHUQLQJWKHDIIHFWLYHYDOXHRIWKHVLGHDLUYHQWVGHVLJQWKHVLGHDLUYHQWV52,ZDV
QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKH PRGHOV 6HSDUDWH PRGHOV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IRU WKH GLIIHUHQW H\H
WUDFNLQJ PHWULFV DQG FDU SRVLWLRQV RQ WKH VFUHHQ OHIW DQG ULJKW $OO PRGHOV ZHUH
HVWLPDWHG ZLWK WKH OPHIXQFWLRQ RI WKH QPOH SDFNDJH RI WKH VWDWLVWLF VRIWZDUH 5
3LQKHLUR%DWHV'HE5R\6DUNDU WKH5&RUH7HDP7KHSDUDPHWHUVIRUWKH
GLIIHUHQWPRGHOVDUHVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH



$UWLFOH,,

7DEOH
/LQHDUPL[HGPRGHOIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWH\HWUDFNLQJPHWULFVIURPH\HWUDFNLQJ
6WXG\E

&

d
>>
/
/

6(



&

/




6(

6(


&

d
>>
/
/

6(



&

/




d

d

6(

6(

7KH PRGHO IRU WLPH WR ILUVW IL[DWLRQ RQ WKH FDU VKRZQ RQ WKH OHIW VLGH RI WKH VFUHHQ
\LHOGHGVLJQLILFDQWFRHIILFLHQWVIRUWKHIHDWXUHSRVLWLRQORZHUDLUYHQW,QFRQWUDVWWRWKH
KHDGOLJKWV VHUYLQJ DV D EDVHOLQH WKH WLPH WR ILUVWIL[DWLRQ RI WKH ORZHU DLU YHQW ZDV
VLJQLILFDQWO\ SURORQJHG E   6(   W   S   $ VLJQLILFDQW
LQWHUDFWLRQ HIIHFW HPHUJHG UHSRUWLQJ DQ HYHQ ODWHU WLPH WR ILUVW IL[DWLRQ IRU WKH QRQ
WKUHDWHQLQJYHUVLRQRIWKHORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQE 6( W S 
 )RU WKH FDU IURQWV SUHVHQWHG RQ WKH ULJKW VLGH RI WKH VFUHHQ RQO\ D PDUJLQDOO\
VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRIWKHORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQZDVIRXQGSRLQWLQJWKHVDPHGLUHFWLRQS
1RHIIHFWVZHUHIRXQGLQWKHILUVWIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQ
$QDO\]LQJWKHWRWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVIRUWKHGHVLJQIHDWXUHDVZHOO
DV LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ GHVLJQ IHDWXUH DQG DIIHFWLYH YDOXH PDQLIHVWHG IRU WKH FDUV
SUHVHQWHG RQ WKH OHIW KDOI RI WKH VFUHHQ 7KH ORZHU DLU YHQW ZDV LQ WRWDO IL[DWHG IRU D
VKRUWHUDPRXQWRIWLPHE 6( W S7KHLQWHUDFWLRQ
HIIHFW VKRZHG WKDW WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ YHUVLRQ RI WKH ORZHU DLU YHQW OHG WR VOLJKWO\
ORQJHUWRWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQVE 6( W S$QHIIHFWRI
PDUJLQDO VLJQLILFDQFH ZDV IRXQG IRU WKH DIIHFWLYH YDOXH RI WKH GHVLJQ IHDWXUH
LQGLFDWLQJWKDWQRQWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQIHDWXUHVZHUHORRNHGDWVKRUWHULQWKLVWDVNE 
6( W S)RUFDUVSUHVHQWHGRQWKHULJKWKDQGVLGHRQO\D
VLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWIRUWKHGHVLJQIHDWXUHZDVREVHUYHGSRLQWLQJLQWRWKHVDPHGLUHFWLRQ
DVEHIRUHE 6( W S



$UWLFOH,,

&RQFOXVLRQ
:KHQ FRPSDULQJ WKH FKRLFH ILQGLQJV IURP 6WXG\ D DQG 6WXG\ E D QXPEHU RI
FRPPRQDOLWLHV HPHUJH HVSHFLDOO\ UHJDUGLQJ SUHIHUHQFHV WRZDUGV WKUHDWHQLQJ
KHDGOLJKWV LQ JHQHUDO *LYHQ WKDW SUHIHUHQFH SDWWHUQV LQ 6WXG\ D DQG 6WXG\ E DUH
ODUJHO\ VLPLODU + LV JHQHUDOO\ VXSSRUWHG 6WLOO REVHUYDEOH GLIIHUHQFHV HPHUJHG
EHWZHHQWKHGLUHFWJD]HFRQGLWLRQ6WXG\EDQGWKHFRQGLWLRQZKHUHRQO\SHULSKHUDO
YLHZZDVDOORZHG6WXG\D7KHGHFLVLRQDOLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHKHDGOLJKWVGHVLJQZDV
VRPHZKDW GLPLQLVKHG LQ WKH QRQGLUHFW JD]H FRQWH[W RI 6WXG\ D )XUWKHU UHJDUGLQJ
WKHORZHUVHFWLRQRIWKHFDUGHVLJQSDUWLFLSDQWVSUHIHUUHGWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLU
YHQW LQ WKH GLUHFW JD]H FRQGLWLRQ DV RQH ZRXOG H[SHFW IURP SUHYLRXV ILQGLQJV
/DQGZHKUHWDOZKLOHLQWKHSHULSKHUDOYLHZFRQGLWLRQWKHUHZDVDWHQGHQF\WR
SUHIHUWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJVLGHDLUYHQWV
7KLV ILQGLQJ PD\ DSSHDU VWDUWOLQJ DW ILUVW EXW UHVHDUFK RQ SHULSKHUDO SHUFHSWLRQ LQ
KXPDQ YLVLRQ PLJKW OHDG WR D VLPSOH H[SODQDWLRQ RI WKH REVHUYHG SKHQRPHQRQ RQH
WKDW ILWV ZLWK WKH K\SRWKHVL]HG IDFH SHUFHSWLRQ PHFKDQLVP ,Q SDUWLFXODU VRPH
UHVHDUFKHUVDUJXHWKDWZKLOHKXPDQVFDQH[WUDFWERWKORZOHYHOLQIRUPDWLRQHJWKH
VL]HRIDFDUDQGLWVVKDSHDQGKLJKOHYHOLQIRUPDWLRQHJILQHGHVLJQGHWDLOVVXFKDV
WKHEUDQGHPEOHPZKHQGLUHFWO\IL[DWLQJRQDQREMHFWRQO\ORZOHYHOLQIRUPDWLRQFDQ
EH JDWKHUHG IURP SHULSKHUDO YLVLRQ ZLWK PRUH ILQHJUDLQHG LQIRUPDWLRQ EHLQJ ORVW
7KHDIIHFWLYHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHFDUIDFHLVFRGHGLQORZOHYHOIHDWXUHVQDPHO\KHUH
WKH JHQHUDO VKDSH RI D SDUWLFXODU GHVLJQ LQVWDQFH +RZHYHU DV VRPH SLFWRULDO
LQIRUPDWLRQPD\EHPLVVHGRXWE\WKHYLHZHUWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJVLGHDLUYHQWGHVLJQ
SRLQWLQJXSZDUGVDWWKHRXWHUFRUQHUVRIWKHFDUIDFHPLJKWEHHDVLO\SHUFHLYHGDVRQH
VLQJOHGHVLJQHQWLW\ZLWKWKHORZHUDLUYHQWDQGHYHQGRPLQDWHWKHJHQHUDOVKDSHRIWKH
ORZHUFDUIHDWXUHGHVLJQFRPSOH[7KHUHIRUHWKHGHVLJQFRPSOH[PLJKWEHSHUFHLYHG
DV VRPHZKDW SRLQWLQJ XSZDUGV MXVW DV D KDSS\ PRXWK ZRXOG GR DQG OHDG WRZDUGV
PRUHIUHTXHQWSUHIHUHQFHV
&RQFHUQLQJWKH H\HWUDFNLQJGDWDHIIHFWVIRXQGLQ 6WXG\ E PDLQO\KHOGIRUWKHFDUV
SUHVHQWHGRQWKHOHIWKDQGVLGHRIWKHVFUHHQ$SRVVLEOHUHDVRQIRUWKLVOLHVLQFXOWXUDO
SUHGLVSRVLWLRQ DQG WKH QDWXUH RI WKH WDVN HPSOR\HG *LYHQ WKH VWDQGDUG UHDGLQJ
GLUHFWLRQIRUWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVRQHZRXOGH[SHFWWKHPWRORRNILUVWWRWKHOHIWDQGODWHU
WRWKHULJKW%DVHGRQWKHVSHFLILFDWLRQRIWKHWDVNZKHUHWKHH[DFWRSSRVLWHVWLPXOXV
ZDVDOZD\VVKRZQRQWKHRWKHUVLGHDQH[DPLQDWLRQRIWKHULJKWKDQGVWLPXOXVPLJKW
EHVRPHZKDWUHGXQGDQWDQGWKXVZRXOGOHDGWRDOHVVLQWHQVHHIIRUWLQORRNLQJDWWKDW


$UWLFOH,,

VWLPXOXV RYHU WKH FRXUVH RI WKH VWXG\ %HVLGHV WKDW WKH UHVXOWV IURP WKH H\H WUDFNLQJ
GDWDLQ6WXG\EFOHDUO\VXSSRUWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHKHDGOLJKWUHJLRQFI:LQGKDJHU
HWDOZKLFKLV IL[DWHGIDVWHUDQG PRUHLQWHQVH LQFRPSDULVRQWRWKHORZHU DLU
YHQWUHJLRQUHJDUGOHVVRIWKHDIIHFWLYHYDOXHRIWKHGHVLJQ
/DVWO\ DQG PRVW LPSRUWDQW ZH VHH SDUWLDO VXSSRUW IRU + LQ WKH H\H WUDFNLQJ GDWD
/RRNLQJ DW WKH WRWDO IL[DWLRQ GXUDWLRQ D WHQGHQF\ IRU OHVV VWURQJ YLVXDO DWWHQWLRQ IRU
QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV ZDV IRXQG DQG D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ RQ WKH ILUVW
IL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQLQGLFDWHGWKDWWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJPRXWKZDVIL[DWHGODWHU&RQWUDU\
WR RXU H[SHFWDWLRQ KRZHYHU WKHUH ZDV D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ RQ WKH WRWDO IL[DWLRQ
GXUDWLRQZKLFKVXJJHVWVDORQJHUIL[DWLRQRIWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJPRXWKLQGLFDWLQJWKDW
WKH HIIHFW RI DIIHFW WKDW ZH IRXQG RQ WKLV PHWULF SULPDULO\ UHVXOWV IURP WKH DIIHFWLYH
YDOXHRIWKHKHDGOLJKWV,QJHQHUDOREVHUYDWLRQVIURP 6WXG\ EDUHVXSSRUWLYHRI+
DQG DQ HDUO\ WKUHDW DGYDQWDJH HIIHFW WKDW LV LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK ZKDW KDV EHHQ
SUHYLRXVO\ RXWOLQHG LQ WKH UHODWHG OLWHUDWXUH gKPDQ HW DO  5LQFN  %HFNHU


6WXG\
%DFNJURXQG
7KHLQWHQWLRQRI6WXG\ZDVWRH[DPLQHYLVXDODWWHQWLRQGLUHFWHGWRZDUGVWKHDIIHFWLYH
IHDWXUHV RI WKH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV LQ DQ H[SHULPHQWDO FRQWH[W UHVHPEOLQJ D
VWDULQJFRQWHVWFI7HUEXUJHWDO$VIRUPXODWHGLQ+SDUWLFLSDQWVVKRXOGORRN
DWWKUHDWHQLQJIHDWXUHV OHVVRIWHQUHIOHFWLQJWKHWHQGHQF\WRDYRLGWKUHDWHQLQJVWLPXOL
WKDWZHZRXOGH[SHFWIURPDQHYROXWLRQDU\SHUVSHFWLYH
3DUWLFLSDQWVLQDQDO\VLV
7KHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHWKHVDPHDVLQWKHRWKHUVWXGLHVRIWKHH\HWUDFNLQJH[SHULPHQW
2QHSDUWLFLSDQWKDGDERUWHGWKHH[SHULPHQWEHIRUHWKLVVWXG\IRUSHUVRQDOUHDVRQV$V
DOOWULDOVZLWK  RU PRUHRIWKHGDWDSRLQWV PLVVLQJZHUHGURSSHGVL[SDUWLFLSDQWV
ZHUH H[FOXGHG IURP WKH DQDO\VHV UHVXOWLQJ LQ D ILQDO VDPSOH IRU 6WXG\  RI 1  
SDUWLFLSDQWV  RI ZKLFK ZHUH IHPDOHV 7KH PHDQ DJH ZDV 0   \HDUV 6' 




$UWLFOH,,

7ULDOVDQGSURFHGXUH
,Q D ZLWKLQVXEMHFW GHVLJQ VLQJOH LPDJHV IURP WKH SLFWXUH VHW ZHUH SUHVHQWHG WR WKH
SDUWLFLSDQWVLQUDQGRPRUGHU(DFKFDULPDJHZDVVKRZQIRUV3UHFHGLQJDIL[DWLRQ
FURVVZKLFKZDVFHQWHUHGRQWKHSRVLWLRQRIWKHFDUVKRRGZDVVKRZQIRUV$IWHU
HDFKSLFWXUHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDVNHGTXHVWLRQVUHIHUULQJWRWKHDIIHFWLYHGLPHQVLRQVRI
WKH FDU IURQW (DFK SLFWXUH FRYHUHG  RI WKH ZLGWK RI WKH VFUHHQ DQG  RI WKH
KHLJKWRIWKHVFUHHQVRWKDWWKHFDUIDFHVUHVHPEOHGUHDOFDUIURQWVVHHQIURPDGLVWDQFH
RIDSSUR[LPDWHO\P
%HIRUH VWDUWLQJ WKH H[SHULPHQW SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DFFOLPDWHG WR WKH H\H WUDFNHU DQG D
FDOLEUDWLRQ SURFHGXUH ZDV FDUULHG RXW 3DUWLFLSDQWV DOVR UHFHLYHG ZULWWHQ DQG RUDO
LQVWUXFWLRQVUHJDUGLQJWKHWULDOVDQGSHUIRUPHGXQUHODWHGWHVWSURFHGXUHZLWKIHHGEDFN
WRHQVXUHWKHLUXQGHUVWDQGLQJ
$QDO\VLVDQGUHVXOWV
(\HWUDFNLQJGDWD$QDO\VLVRIWKHH\HWUDFNLQJGDWDIURP6WXG\ZDVFRQGXFWHGLQD
IDVKLRQ DQDORJRXV WR WKDW RI 6WXG\ E 5HJLRQV RI LQWHUHVW ZHUH GHILQHG DQG OLQHDU
PL[HGPRGHOVZLWKUDQGRPLQWHUFHSWVZHUHFDOFXODWHGIRUVHYHUDOH\HWUDFNLQJPHWULFV
DV GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV 'HVLJQ IHDWXUH KHDGOLJKWV DQG ORZHU DLU YHQW DQG DIIHFWLYH
YDOXH WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ DV ZHOO DV DQ LQWHUDFWLRQ RI WKH WZR ZHUH
LQFOXGHGLQWKHPRGHO7KHUHVXOWVIURPWKHGLIIHUHQWPRGHOVDUHVXPPDUL]HGLQ7DEOH

7DEOH
/LQHDUPL[HGPRGHOIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWH\HWUDFNLQJPHWULFVIURPH\HWUDFNLQJ
6WXG\
d
>>
/
/

&

d

6(



&

/




6(

6(

&RQFHUQLQJWKHWLPHWRILUVWIL[DWLRQDVLJQLILFDQWPDLQHIIHFWZDVIRXQGIRUWKHGHVLJQ
IHDWXUH,QFRQWUDVWWRWKHKHDGOLJKWVUHJLRQWKHORZHUDLUYHQWUHJLRQZDVIL[DWHGRQO\
DIWHUDVLJQLILFDQWO\SURORQJHGDPRXQWRIWLPHE 6( W S


$UWLFOH,,

 1R HIIHFWV ZHUH IRXQG IRU WKH ILUVW IL[DWLRQ GXUDWLRQ 7KH PRGHO IRU WKH WRWDO
IL[DWLRQ GXUDWLRQ \LHOGHG VLJQLILFDQW PDLQ HIIHFWV IRU DIIHFWLYH YDOXH DQG GHVLJQ
IHDWXUH$ODUJHO\UHGXFHGWRWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQZDVREVHUYHGIRUWKHORZHUDLUYHQW
UHJLRQ E   6(   W   S   &RQFHUQLQJ WKH HIIHFW RI WKH
GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV LW ZDV IRXQG WKDW WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ YHUVLRQV RI WKH GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV
OHGWRDQLQFUHDVHGWRWDOIL[DWLRQGXUDWLRQE 6( W S
&RQFOXVLRQ
7KHVSHFLILFWDVNLQ6WXG\ZDVGHVLJQHGWRUHVHPEOHDVWDULQJFRQWHVW8QWLOWKHWDVN
UHSRUWHG LQ 6WXG\  SDUWLFLSDQWV KDG VHHQ WKH HQWLUH VWLPXOXV VHW RQFH LQ 6WXG\ E
WKHUHIRUH 6WXG\  FOHDUO\ VLPXODWHV D UHSHDWHG FRQWDFW VLWXDWLRQ ZKHUH RQH ZRXOG
H[SHFW WR REVHUYH WKUHDW DYRLGDQFH $V H[SHFWHG DQG LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK + GHVLJQ
IHDWXUHVGLVSOD\LQJDWKUHDWHQLQJIHDWXUHZHUHIL[DWHGIRUVKRUWHUDPRXQWVRIWLPHWKDQ
QRQWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQIHDWXUHV0RUHRYHUWKHGDWDVXJJHVWHGDQHOHYDWHGLPSRUWDQFH
RIWKHKHDGOLJKWUHJLRQDVWKLVUHJLRQLVIL[DWHGIDVWHUDQGORQJHUWKDQWKHRWKHUGHVLJQ
IHDWXUHV

*HQHUDOGLVFXVVLRQ
6XPPDUL]DWLRQRIUHVXOWVDQGWKHRUHWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQV
,QDQH\HWUDFNLQJH[SHULPHQWWKDWFRQVLVWHGRIWKUHHVXEVWXGLHVZHLQYHVWLJDWHGWKH
HIIHFW RI DIIHFWLYH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ RQ YLHZHUV SHUFHSWLRQ DV
PHDVXUHG E\ YLVXDO DWWHQWLRQ DQG FKRLFH GDWD 7KH FRUH DLP RI RXU UHVHDUFK ZDV WR
VKRZ KRZ DIIHFWLYH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV WKDW UHVHPEOH RU FRQWDLQ NH\
VWLPXOL RI HYROXWLRQDU\ LPSRUWDQFH DUH DEOH WR HOLFLW LQQDWH UHDFWLRQV LQ FXVWRPHUV
ORRNLQJ DW WKRVH SURGXFWV 6WDUWLQJ RYHU IURP DQ HYROXWLRQDU\ SHUVSHFWLYH DQG D
SKHQRPHQRQ GHVFULEHG LQ SV\FKRORJLFDO OLWHUDWXUH DV WKUHDW DGYDQWDJH HIIHFW ZH
K\SRWKHVL]HGWKDWIHDWXUHVGLVSOD\LQJWKUHDWHQLQJDIIHFWZRXOGLQLWLDOO\GUDZDWWHQWLRQ
WRZDUGVWKHPZKLOHRQWKHRWKHUKDQGYLHZHUVZRXOGWU\WRLJQRUHWKHPLQWKHORQJ
UXQ7KHUHVXOWVRIRXUH\HWUDFNLQJVWXGLHV ZHUHODUJHO\ LQOLQH ZLWKWKLVK\SRWKHVLV
6WXG\ E DLPHG WR VLPXODWH D ILUVW FRQWDFW FKRLFH VLWXDWLRQ ZKHUH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH
GLUHFWO\ FRQIURQWHG ZLWK WKH VWLPXOL RQO\ IRU D VKRUW DQG VHOIGHWHUPLQHG DPRXQW RI
WLPH 7KLV FRXOG VKRZ WKDW SDUWLFLSDQWV HQGHG XS LQ VSHQGLQJ PRUH DWWHQWLRQ RQ


$UWLFOH,,

WKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV DV FRPSDUHG WR QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ IHDWXUHV 6WXG\ 
UHVHPEOLQJDVWDULQJFRQWHVWZKHUHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHIRUFHGWRORRNDWWKHDIIHFWLYHO\
YDULHGFDUIURQWVVXJJHVWHGWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVWHQGWRDYRLGWKUHDWHQLQJIHDWXUHVLQWKLV
NLQGRIVLWXDWLRQ
:KLOH WKH REVHUYHG DWWHQWLRQDO EHKDYLRU WKXV FOHDUO\ VXSSRUWV RXU K\SRWKHVLV DFWXDO
XVHUV SUHIHUHQFH FKRLFHV DSSHDU WR EH LQGHSHQGHQW IURP WKHVH REVHUYDWLRQV $V
H[SHFWHG IURP SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK SDUWLFLSDQWV SUHIHUUHG IHDWXUH FRPELQDWLRQV RI
WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV DQG QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW IRU DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU
IURQW GHVLJQV /DQGZHKU HW DO  7KLV SDWWHUQ HPHUJHG DFURVV DOO RI RXU FKRLFH
VWXGLHV +RZHYHU LQ 6WXG\ D ZKHUH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH RQO\ DOORZHG WR ORRN DW WKH
FKRLFH VHWV IURP WKH FRUQHU RI WKH H\H DQG QRW GLUHFWO\ WKH FKRLFH SUHIHUHQFH
UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW ZDV VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHGXFHG 6WLOO FKRLFH
SDWWHUQVIURP6WXG\DDQG6WXG\EUHVHPEOHHDFKRWKHUFORVHO\:HMXGJHWKLVODWWHU
REVHUYDWLRQ DV LQGLFDWLRQ IRU DQ HIILFLHQW SDWWHUQ LGHQWLILFDWLRQ PHFKDQLVP WKDW HYHQ
DOORZVIRUDYDOLGSUHIHUHQFHFKRLFHZKHQQRWIRFXVLQJGLUHFWO\DQGWRWDOO\FRQVFLRXVO\
RQ WKH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF IDFHOLNH VWLPXOXV +RZHYHU VRPH HYLGHQFH ZDV SUHVHQWHG
WKDWVKRZHGWKDWWKLVSUREDEO\SUHFRQVFLRXVSHUFHSWLRQDOPHFKDQLVPLVOLNHO\EDVHG
RQ ORZOHYHO IHDWXUH LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG SUHIHUHQFH MXGJPHQWV FDQ EH DOWHUHG E\ WKH
SUHVHQFHRIFRQVFLRXVO\DYDLODEOHKLJKOHYHOLQIRUPDWLRQ
:LWK RXU UHVHDUFK ZH SURYLGHG D VXEVWDQWLDO H[WHQVLRQ WR WKH H[LVWLQJ OLWHUDWXUH RQ
DQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQ:KLOHHDUOLHUUHVHDUFKSURYLGHGVXSSRUWIRUWKHHIIHFW
RIDQWKURSRPRUSKLFHYROXWLRQDU\UHOHYDQWVWLPXOLRQDIIHFWLYHMXGJPHQWV0LHVOHU 
/HGHUZHFRXOGDGGLWLRQDOO\VKRZWKDWWKHVHVHOIUHSRUWHGDIIHFWLYHSHUFHSWLRQV
LQGHHG KDYH EHKDYLRUDO FRQVHTXHQFHV DOVR DV IRU H[DPSOH RQ WKH QRW QHFHVVDULO\
FRQVFLRXV YLVXDO DWWHQWLRQ VSHQW RQ SDUWLFXODU LQVWDQFHV RI WKH GHVLJQ REMHFW
$QWKURSRPRUSKLF GHVLJQ WKHUHIRUH QRW RQO\ HOLFLWV SV\FKRORJLFDO FRQFHSWV DQG
DIIHFWLYH HYDOXDWLRQ SDWWHUQV EXW DOVR VSHFLILF EHKDYLRUDO QRW QHFHVVDULO\ FRQVFLRXV
UHDFWLRQVWRZDUGVWKHVHREMHFWV
3DUWLFXODUO\FRQFHUQLQJSUHIHUHQFHEXLOGLQJIRUDQWKURSRPRUSKLFGHVLJQVZHIHHOWKH
QHHG WR HPSKDVL]H WKDW LW LV PRVW OLNHO\ D WZRVWHS SURFHVV WKDW LV XQGHUO\LQJ WKH
SUHIHUHQFHIRUPDWLRQ$SUHDWWHQWLYHDXWRPDWLFPHFKDQLVPWKDWLVVKDSHGODUJHO\E\
HYROXWLRQDU\ LQIOXHQFHV VXFK DV WKDW WKUHDWHQLQJ REMHFWV VKRXOG EH DYRLGHG DQG D
FRJQLWLYHFRQVFLRXV PHFKDQLVPWKDWDOVR OHWVXVFRQVLGHURWKHU DVSHFWVOLNHIDVKLRQ
VWUHDPV H[SHULHQFH ZLWK GHVLJQ REMHFWV DQG PRUH FRPSOH[ WKRXJKWV OLNH LPSUHVVLRQ


$UWLFOH,,

PDQDJHPHQW DQG VHOISUHVHQWDWLRQ ,Q VRPH FDVHV DV LQ WKH UHVHDUFK E\ 0LHVOHU DQG
/HGHU  WKH XVH RI VRPH YLVXDO NH\ VWLPXOL VXFK DV WKH EDE\VFKHPD >@
DXWRPDWLFDOO\HOLFLWVVWURQJSRVLWLYHUHVSRQVHVLQFRQVXPHUV0LHVOHU /HGHU
EXW WKLV PD\ QRW UHDGLO\ DSSO\ IRU WKH LPSOHPHQWDWLRQ RI RWKHU DQWKURSRPRUSKLF
IHDWXUHV7KHILQGLQJRIWKHPL[HGSUHIHUHQFHIRUWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVDQGDVPLOLQJ
JULOOH E\ /DQGZHKU 0F*LOO DQG +HUUPDQQ  XQGHUVFRUHV WKDW WKH FRQVFLRXV
DVVRFLDWLRQV HOLFLWHG E\ WKRVH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF GHVLJQHG REMHFWV DUH QRW RQO\
GHWHUPLQHG E\ DXWRPDWLF HYROXWLRQDU\VKDSHG PHFKDQLVPV EXW RI FRXUVH DOVR E\
FRJQLWLYH UHDVRQLQJ ZKLFK LQ WXUQ PLJKW LQIOXHQFH WKH ILQDO SUHIHUHQFH FKRLFH
ODUJHO\ 2WKHUZLVH RQH ZRXOG PRVWO\ H[SHFW D VWULFW SUHIHUHQFH IRU QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ
IHDWXUHV LQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ ZKLFK LV LQ IDFW QRW WKH FDVH
1RQHWKHOHVVDVSRLQWHGRXWRXUUHVHDUFKXQGHUVFRUHVWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIHYROXWLRQDU\
WKHRU\IRUSURGXFWGHVLJQE\VKRZLQJWKDWWKHH[SHFWHGEHKDYLRUDOPHFKDQLVPVDUHDW
ZRUNRQDEDVLFEHKDYLRUDOOHYHOVXFKDVWKHXQFRQVFLRXVDWWHQWLRQGLVWULEXWLRQRIWKH
FXVWRPHUWRFHUWDLQUHJLRQVRIWKHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFGHVLJQREMHFW1RWHWKDWWKHPRGH
RI DFWLRQ KHUHE\ LV QRW UHVWULFWHG WR SURGXFWV WKDW UHVHPEOH IDFHV RU RWKHU KXPDQ
IHDWXUHV EXW RI FRXUVH ZRUNV PRUH JHQHUDOO\ ZLWK SURGXFW GHVLJQ LPSOHPHQWLQJ
YLVXDONH\VWLPXOL$QWKURSRPRUSKLVPLQSURGXFWGHVLJQFRXOGUDWKHUEHFRQVLGHUHGD
VSHFLDOFDVHLQWKHFRQWH[WRIXVLQJHYROXWLRQDU\WKHRU\LQSURGXFWGHVLJQ
,Q OLQH ZLWK WKLV JHQHUDO VWDWHPHQW DQG PRUH VSHFLILFDOO\ WDLORUHG WR WKH XVH RI IDFH
OLNHVWLPXOLLQSURGXFWGHVLJQUHVXOWVIURPRXUH\HWUDFNLQJVWXGLHVFOHDUO\FRQILUPHG
SURFHVVLQJ VLPLODULWLHV EHWZHHQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV DQG KXPDQ IDFHV
:LQGKDJHUHWDO3UHYLRXV ZRUNVVWDWHGWKDWKHDGOLJKWV SDUDOOHOWKHH\HVLQD
KXPDQ IDFH MXVW LQ WKH ZD\ WKDW WKH\ GUDZ PRVW RI WKH FXVWRPHUV YLVXDO DWWHQWLRQ
WRZDUGV WKHP DQG ZH FRXOG FOHDUO\ UHSOLFDWH WKLV LQ RXU VHULHV RI VWXGLHV 1RWH WKDW
DJDLQ DOWKRXJK WKLV WLPH IURP DQRWKHU SRLQW RI YLHZ HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ FDQ EH
VWUHVVHGDVDIUDPHZRUNRIKLJKH[SODQDWRU\YDOXH
9LVXDO NH\ VWLPXOL FDQ EH WKRXJKW RI DV DFFHVV WRROV WR HYROXWLRQDU\ VKDSHG JHQHWLF
SURJUDPVDVVLVWLQJKXPDQVWRFRSHZLWKLQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWgKPDQ
HW DO  DQG LQ RXU SHUFHSWLRQ WKLV DOVR KROGV IRU WKHLU DSSOLFDWLRQ LQ SURGXFW
GHVLJQ7KXVZKHQJRLQJEDFNWRWKHLQLWLDOTXHVWLRQRIZKHWKHUDWKUHDWHQLQJFDUIDFH
FDQ PDNH WKH YLHZHU IHHO WKUHDWHQHG OLNH DQ DJJUHVVLYH KXPDQ IDFH ZH QRZ ZRXOG
VD\ <HV DW OHDVW LQ SDUW LW FDQ SURYLGHG WKDW LW GLVSOD\V HYROXWLRQDU\ UHOHYDQW NH\
VWLPXOL


$UWLFOH,,

3UDFWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQV
2XU ZRUN FRQWULEXWHV WR D JURZLQJ ERG\ RI OLWHUDWXUH SRLQWLQJ RXW WKH UHOHYDQFH RI
DQWKURSRPRUSKLFRUPRUHJHQHUDOHYROXWLRQDU\YLVXDONH\VWLPXOLWRSURGXFWGHVLJQ
,QOLQHZLWKSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKZHSURYLGHGVXSSRUWIRUWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIHYROXWLRQDU\
WKHRU\IRUSURGXFWGHVLJQ&RQFUHWHO\ZHXQGHUOLQHWKDWYLVXDONH\VWLPXOLFDQEHXVHG
V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ LQ SURGXFW GHVLJQ WR HOLFLW ZLWKLQ FHUWDLQ OLPLWV VSHFLILF KXPDQ
UHDFWLRQV UHODWHG WR WKRVH VWLPXOL -XVW DV SUHYLRXV ZRUN FRXOG VKRZ WKDW WKH XVH RI
EDE\IDFHVFKHPDWLFVLQSURGXFWGHVLJQFDQLQFUHDVHWKHFXWHQHVVUDWLQJVRIWKHSURGXFW
0LHVOHU  /HGHU  SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK ZLWK RXU VWLPXOXV PDWHULDO 3XUXFNHU
 VKRZHG WKDW WKH XVH RI WKUHDWHQLQJ VWLPXOL FDQ VWLPXODWH VSHFLILF HPRWLRQDO
DVVRFLDWLRQVRI1HJDWLYH9DOHQFHDQG3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\DVZHFDOOHGWKHGLPHQVLRQV
ZLWKUHIHUHQFHWRWKHH[LVWLQJOLWHUDWXUH2U DVZHVXJJHVWIURPWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\ LW
FDQHYHQLQGXFHSDUWLFXODUJD]HSDWWHUQVLQFXVWRPHUVZKHQYLHZLQJWKHSURGXFW5HDO
OLIH DSSOLFDWLRQV LQ SURGXFW GHVLJQ FDQ EH GHGXFWHG LQ D VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG PDQQHU )RU
H[DPSOH SURGXFW GHVLJQHUV LPSOHPHQWLQJ IDFLDO VWLPXOL LQ WKHLU SURGXFWV FDQ H[SHFW
YLHZHUVWRORRNDWWKHH\HVILUVWZLWKDSDUWLFXODUDGYDQWDJHRIWKUHDWHQLQJRYHUQRQ
WKUHDWHQLQJ IHDWXUHV DW OHDVW LQ ILUVW FRQWDFW VLWXDWLRQV 7KH FRUH H[SODQDWRU\
PHFKDQLVP HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ VXJJHVWV D EURDG DQG GLYHUVH UDQJH RI GHVLJQ
LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV ZKLFK ZH KDYH MXVW VWDUWHG WR H[SORUH DQG DOO RI ZKLFK KDYH
SRWHQWLDOO\ VSHFLILF ILHOGV RI DSSOLFDWLRQV 7KH UHVHDUFK IRU H[DPSOH ZRXOG VXJJHVW
WKDW WKUHDWHQLQJ SURGXFW IHDWXUHV PLJKW EH LPSOHPHQWHG V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ WR GUDZ WKH
FXVWRPHUVDWWHQWLRQWRZDUGVDSDUWLFXODUSURGXFWIRULWWRVWDQGRXWIURPWKHFURZGRI
RWKHU SURGXFWV MXVW LQ OLQH ZLWK WKH WKUHDW DGYDQWDJH HIIHFW ,Q RWKHU FRQWH[WV LW
PLJKW EH XVHIXO WR LQFUHDVH D SURGXFWV WKUHDWSRWHQWLDO WR PDNH LW DSSHDOLQJ WR D
FHUWDLQ FXVWRPHU JURXS RU WR UDLVH D SURGXFWV FXWHQHVV 2I FRXUVH ZKHQ UHO\LQJ RQ
WKRVH HYROXWLRQDU\ VWLPXOL D SURGXFW GHVLJQHU FDQQRW EH HQWLUHO\ VXUH ZKHWKHU WKLV
PDNHVWKHSURGXFWPRUHDSSHDOLQJWRDOOFXVWRPHUJURXSVEXWKHFDQFHUWDLQO\EHVXUH
WKDW DOO FXVWRPHUV ZLOO XQGHUVWDQG WKH LQWHQWLRQ RI WKH PDQLSXODWLRQ DV WKH
LPSOHPHQWHG YLVXDO NH\ VWLPXOL DUH DFWLYDWLQJ LQKHULWHG JHQHWLF SURJUDPV LQ KXPDQV
&DU IURQWV WKDW DUH SHUFHLYHG VLPLODU WR KXPDQ IDFHV FDQ WKXV EH H[SHFWHG WR LQGXFH
DSSURDFK DQG DYRLGDQFH EHKDYLRU WKDW ZRXOG EH RULJLQDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG RQO\ ZLWK WKH
RULJLQDO ELRORJLFDO VWLPXOXV $JDLQ HYROXWLRQDU\ SV\FKRORJ\ DV D IUDPHZRUN SRLQWV
WRZDUGV QHZ PHWKRGV RI JXLGLQJ YLHZHUV DWWHQWLRQ DQG UHDFWLRQV ZKHQ ORRNLQJ DW
SURGXFWVDQGFDQFRPHLQKDQG\IRUPDUNHWHUVDQGSURGXFWGHVLJQHUV)RUUHDVRQVWR
EHH[SORUHGLQWKHQH[WVHFWLRQSURGXFWGHVLJQHUVVHHNLQJWRLPSOHPHQWHYROXWLRQDU\


$UWLFOH,,

GHVLJQ DLPLQJ DW LQGXFLQJ HYROXWLRQVKDSHG EHKDYLRUDO UHDFWLRQV LQ FXVWRPHUV DUH
DGYLVHGQRWRQO\WRVHHNLQVSLUDWLRQIURPQDWXUHEXWDOVRWRFRQVLGHUWDNLQJDORRNDW
UHVHDUFK RQ YLVXDO NH\ VWLPXOL ,PLWDWLQJ QDWXUH LQ D VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG PDQQHU ZLOO
DOPRVW FHUWDLQO\ OHDG WR ZHDNHU UHVXOWV WKDQ UHDO QDWXUH DUFKHW\SHV FI 0LHVOHU 
/HGHUDQGGHVLJQHUVPLJKWEHPLVJXLGHGE\LPLWDWLQJIHDWXUHVWKDWDUHQRWSDUW
RI DQ HYROXWLRQDU\ NH\ PHFKDQLVP )XUWKHUPRUH IRU VRPH PHFKDQLVPV
VXSHUQRUPDO VWLPXOL PLJKW H[LVW WKDW SURYRNH UHDFWLRQV HYHQ VWURQJHU WKDQ
HYHU\WKLQJ RFFXUULQJ LQ UHDOOLIH FI 'HLUGUH  7LQEHUJHQ  ,I WKDW LV QRW
SRVVLEOHZHVWLOODJUHHZLWK0LHVOHUDQG/HGHUVWDWLQJWKDWH[DJJHUDWLRQLVDW
OHDVWDJRRGLGHDWRREWDLQWKHGHVLUHGEHKDYLRUDOUHVXOWV

/LPLWDWLRQVDQGIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
2QHLPSRUWDQWSRLQWRIFULWLTXHZLWKWKHUHVHDUFKRQDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQ
UHODWHV VSHFLILFDOO\ WR WKH XVH RI YLVXDO NH\ VWLPXOL LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI HYROXWLRQDU\
WKHRU\7KLVSRLQWKDVDOVREHHQEURXJKWXSLQUHVHDUFKRQVFKHPDWLFIDFHV+HUHWKH
TXHVWLRQDURVHDVWRZKHWKHUWKHVWLPXOXVPDWHULDOXVHGRUWKHSURGXFWGHVLJQVLQRXU
FDVHZDVUHDOO\HFRORJLFDOO\YDOLGHQRXJKWRSURYRNH WKHH[SHFWHGYLHZHUUHDFWLRQV
:LWKVFKHPDWLFIDFHVIRUH[DPSOHWKHDUJXPHQWZDVUDLVHGWKDWWKHFRQVWUXFWHGIDFHV
VWLOOVHHPHGWREHYHU\DUWLILFLDODQGLQDVLPLODUIDVKLRQRQHFRXOGSRLQWRXWWKDWFDU
IURQWVDUHVWLOOTXLWHGLIIHUHQWWRKXPDQIDFHV+RZFRXOGDKXPDQGHVLJQHGREMHFWVWLOO
UHVHPEOLQJPRUHWKHSURWRW\SHRIWKDWSDUWLFXODUREMHFWWKDQWKHUHDOELRORJLFDOPRGHO
SRVVLEO\ LQGXFH UHDFWLRQV WKDW HYROXWLRQ VKDSHG VSHFLILFDOO\ WRZDUGV WKLV PRGHO"
)ROORZLQJWKHHYROXWLRQDU\UHDVRQLQJgKPDQHWDOWKHGLUHFWUHVHPEODQFHRI
WKH LPSOHPHQWHG GHVLJQ WR WKH ELRORJLFDO PRGHO VKRXOG KRZHYHU QRW UHDOO\ PDWWHU
5DWKHU RQH ZRXOG H[SHFW WKH HYROXWLRQ RI WHPSODWHV JHQHWLFDOO\ LQKHULWHG SURJUDPV
WKDW KHOS KXPDQV ZLWK WKH GHWHFWLRQ DQG GLVFULPLQDWLRQ RI UHOHYDQW VWLPXOL 7KHVH
WHPSODWHV RI FRXUVH ZRXOG HYROYH PDLQO\ E\ WKHLU LQKHUHQW DELOLW\ WR GHWHFW WKH
VSHFLILFVWLPXOLDQGWKHLUSRZHUWRGLVFULPLQDWHWKHPIURPFORVHO\UHVHPEOLQJVWLPXOL
LUUHVSHFWLYHRIDQ\RFFXUULQJQDWXUDOYDULDELOLW\$FRPPRQH[DPSOHLVWKHSHUFHSWLRQ
RI DIIHFWLYH IDFHV WKDW DUH FRQVLGHUHG RI KLJK VRFLDO DQG WKXV HYROXWLRQDU\ YDOXH
gKPDQHWDO  7KHFRQIXVLRQRIDQDJJUHVVLYHZLWKDIULHQGO\HPRWLRQZRXOG
EHFOHDUO\XQIRUWXQDWHDQGPD[LPXPGLVFULPLQDWLRQZRXOGEHGHVLUHG)ROORZLQJWKH
OLWHUDWXUH RQ VFKHPDWLF IDFHV WKH IHDWXUHV LQ WKH WHPSODWHV IRU WKH GHWHFWLRQ RI WKHVH
IDFLDO HPRWLRQV DUH H[DFWO\ WKH RSSRVLWH RI HDFK RWKHU DQG WKH\ ZRUN LUUHVSHFWLYH RI
WKHQDWXUDOYDULDWLRQRFFXUULQJLQUHDOIDFHV7KHHYDOXDWLRQRIDSHUFHLYHGIDFLDODIIHFW


$UWLFOH,,

ZRXOG WKHQ PDLQO\ LQYROYH WKH PDWFKLQJ ZLWK WKDW SDUWLFXODU WHPSODWH DQG WKH
GHYLDWLRQ IURP FRPSHWLQJ DOWHUQDWLYHV )RU WKH VDPH UHDVRQ WKH H[LVWHQFH RI
VXSHUQRUPDO NH\ VWLPXOL LV SODXVLEOH PDWFKLQJ WKH SDUWLFXODU WHPSODWH FORVHU WKDQ D
QDWXUDOO\ RFFXUULQJVWLPXOXVZRXOG LQGXFLQJUHDFWLRQVHYHQ EH\RQGQRUPDOEHKDYLRU
7LQEHUJHQ7KHUHIRUHFOHDUO\WKHVFRSHRIHYROXWLRQDU\LQVSLUHGGHVLJQVKRXOG
EHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKRVHJHQHWLFWHPSODWHVUDWKHUWKDQWKHQDWXUDORFFXUULQJVWLPXOXV
,Q UHODWLRQ WR WKLV DVSHFW IXUWKHU UHVHDUFK VKRXOG H[SORUH WKH DSSOLFDELOLW\ RI NH\
VWLPXOLRWKHUWKDQWKUHDWHQLQJDIIHFWLYHIDFLDOH[SUHVVLRQVDQGWKHEDE\IDFHVFKHPDWR
SURGXFW GHVLJQ &OHDUO\ WKRVH DUH PRVW OLNHO\ WR EH IRXQG LQ DUHDV UHODWHG WR
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ DV VRFLDO SHUFHSWLRQ KDV EHHQ D FRUH GULYHU RI
HYROXWLRQ LQ KXPDQV DQG PLJKW SRVVLEO\ HQWDQJOH VH[XDO VWLPXOL DQG LQWHUSHUVRQDO
FRPPXQLFDWLRQ $OVR RQH PLJKW WKLQN RI DSSO\LQJ NH\ VWLPXOL QRW RQO\ WR YLVXDO
GHVLJQ EXW DOVR WR RWKHU VHQVRU\ PRGDOLWLHV OLNH WKH DXGLWRU\ UHDOP IRU H[DPSOH E\
UHIHUULQJ WR VSHHFKOLNH VRXQGV 0RUHRYHU XS WR QRZ SUHGLFWLRQV IURP
DQWKURSRPRUSKLVP DQG HYROXWLRQDU\ WKHRU\ LQ GHVLJQ KDYH EHHQ PDLQO\ WHVWHG ZLWK
FDUV DQG RQO\ VFDUFHO\ ZLWK RWKHU SURGXFW FDWHJRULHV )XWXUH UHVHDUFK VKRXOG FOHDUO\
VWULYHWRH[SXQJHWKLVQHJOLJHQFH
$ ILQDO VWDWHPHQW KDV WR EH PDGH RQ WKH REVHUYHG H[SHULPHQWDO HIIHFWV DQG DFWXDO
GHVLJQSUHIHUHQFH$OWKRXJKZHDVZHOODVRWKHUUHVHDUFKHUVLQRXUILHOGZHUHDEOHWR
SURYLGHHYLGHQFHIRUWKHSURSRVHGHYROXWLRQDU\PHFKDQLVPVZHKDYHWREHDZDUHRI
WKH RYHUZKHOPLQJ SRZHU RI ERXQGDU\ FRQGLWLRQV WKDW PLJKW RYHUFDVW WKH SURSRVHG
PHFKDQLVPV$WUDQVIHURINH\VWLPXOLLQWRDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQPLJKWQRW
VLPSO\UHVXOWLQWKHVDPHEHKDYLRUDODQGSV\FKRORJLFDOHIIHFWVXQGHUDOOFRQGLWLRQVEXW
ZRXOG GHSHQG KHDYLO\ RQ HJ VRFLDO FRQWH[W RU SUHYLRXV OHDUQLQJ LQ FRQVXPHUV
3RVVLEOH PRGHUDWLQJ HIIHFWV OLNH WKHVH PLJKW OHDG WR D ZHDNHQLQJ RI WKH H[SHFWHG
SV\FKRORJLFDO SURSHUWLHV RU D VOLJKW DOWHULQJ RI WKH REVHUYHG HIIHFWV 7KH VRFLDO
VLJQDOLQJIXQFWLRQRIDSURGXFWWKHVLJQDOLQJLQWHQWLRQRIWKHFRQVXPHURUWKHZD\RI
LQWHUDFWLQJ ZLWK WKH SURGXFW HJ VROHO\ IXQFWLRQDO JRRGV YV SUHVWLJLRXV JRRGV DV
ZHOODVSUHYLRXVH[SHULHQFHVDQGVRFLDOOHDUQLQJPLJKWIXQGDPHQWDOO\FKDQJHDWWLWXGHV
WRZDUGV SURGXFW GHVLJQV $XWRPDWHG SURFHVVHV PLJKW EH DW ZRUN FRQWLQXRXVO\ DQG
XQFRQVFLRXVO\EXWWKLVGRHVQRWPHDQWKDWKXPDQVMXVWDFWZLOOOHVVDFFRUGLQJWRWKHP
$V ZH VHH LQ IDVKLRQ WUHQGV SUHIHUHQFHV PD\ FKDQJH HYHU\ \HDU RU DW OHDVW IURP
VHDVRQWRVHDVRQDQGZHNQRZWKDWVRFLDOOHDUQLQJSOD\VDPDMRUUROHIRURXUMXGJPHQW
RQZKHWKHUVRPHWKLQJLVLQRURXW7R\GROOVPLJKWVHHPXQFRQGLWLRQDOO\FXWHWR


$UWLFOH,,

XVZKHQZHVHHWKHPIRUWKHILUVWWLPHLQRXUOLYHVEXWFRQVXPSWLRQRIGXELRXVKRUURU
PRYLHV PLJKW RYHUFDVW RXU LQLWLDO IHHOLQJ LQ DQ XQFRPIRUWLQJ ZD\ $QG RI FRXUVH
OHDUQLQJSURFHVVHVGRQRWVWRSLQIURQWRIFDUVDQGZKDWPD\QRZEHFRQVLGHUHGFXWH
VSRUW\RU PRGHUQLQ FDUV PLJKWQRWLQDIHZ\HDUVWLPH &OHDUO\WKLVUHODWLRQVKLSRI
DXWRPDWHG HYROXWLRQDU\VKDSHG EHKDYLRU DQG FRJQLWLYH RXWFRPH VKRXOG EH VXEMHFW WR
IXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQ
$QGEHVLGHVVLQFHWKHLULQYHQWLRQFDUGHVLJQVKDYHDOZD\VEHHQGUDVWLFDOO\LQIOXHQFHG
E\WHFKQLFDOLPSURYHPHQWVDQGIURPDIXQFWLRQDOSRLQWRIYLHZWRGD\VFDUIURQWVDUH
PDLQO\ VKDSHG E\ WKH GULYHUV YLVXDO QHHGV LQFOXGLQJ PLUURUV ZLQGVKLHOG DQG
KHDGOLJKWV DV ZHOO DV WKH QHHG WR FRRO GRZQ D IXHOFRPEXVWLQJ HQJLQH DQG WKLV
GHYHORSPHQWKDSSHQHGWRIDYRUDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQV:KDWLIWHFKQRORJ\
FKDQJHG GUDVWLFDOO\ IRU H[DPSOH PDNLQJ IURQW DLU YHQWV GLVSHQVDEOH" 3HUKDSV
DQWKURSRPRUSKLVP DV D GHVLJQ JXLGHOLQH ZRXOG EHFRPH GLVSHQVDEOH WKDW ZD\ WRR
+RZHYHUZHDUHVXUHWKDWWKHIUDPHZRUNRIHYROXWLRQDU\SV\FKRORJ\ZLOOFRQWLQXHWR
VHUYH DV D YDOXDEOH GHVLJQ SULQFLSOH DQG SHUKDSV WKH TXHVW IRU VXLWDEOH VXSHUQDWXUDO
VWLPXOLZLOOVKDSHFDUGHVLJQVLQWKHIXWXUH



$UWLFOH,,

5HIHUHQFHV
$JJDUZDO3 0F*LOO$/,V7KDW&DU6PLOLQJDW0H"6FKHPD&RQJUXLW\
DV D %DVLV IRU (YDOXDWLQJ $QWKURSRPRUSKL]HG 3URGXFWV -RXUQDO RI &RQVXPHU
5HVHDUFK
$UPDQQ 5  %OWKRII,*D]H %HKDYLRULQ )DFH&RPSDULVRQ7KH5ROHRI
6H[ 7DVN DQG 6\PPHWU\ $WWHQWLRQ 3HUFHSWLRQ DQG 3V\FKRSK\VLFV 

%DWHV'0DHFKOHU0%RONHU% WKH5&RUH7HDPOPH/LQHDU0L[HG
(IIHFWV0RGHOV9HUVLRQ
%ORFK3+6HHNLQJWKH,GHDO)RUP3URGXFW'HVLJQDQG&RQVXPHU5HVSRQVH
-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ
&KDQGRQ3+XWFKLQVRQ-:%UDGORZ(7 <RXQJ6+'RHV,Q6WRUH
0DUNHWLQJ :RUN" (IIHFWV RI WKH 1XPEHU DQG 3RVLWLRQ RI 6KHOI )DFLQJV RQ
%UDQG$WWHQWLRQDQG(YDOXDWLRQDWWKH3RLQWRI3XUFKDVH-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ

'HLUGUH %  6XSHUQRUPDO 6WLPXOL +RZ 3ULPDO 8UJHV 2YHUUDQ 7KHLU
(YROXWLRQDU\3XUSRVH1HZ<RUN::1RUWRQ
'L6DOYR &  *HPSHUOH )  )URP 6HGXFWLRQ WR )XOILOOPHQW 7KH 8VH RI
$QWKURSRPRUSKLF )RUP LQ 'HVLJQ 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH  ,QWHUQDWLRQDO
&RQIHUHQFH RQ 'HVLJQLQJ 3OHDVXUDEOH 3URGXFWV DQG ,QWHUIDFHV SS 
1HZ<RUN$&0
'XFKRZVNL$7(\H7UDFNLQJ0HWKRGRORJ\7KHRU\DQG 3UDFWLFHQGHG
/RQGRQ6SULQJHU
(OOLV + '  5HFRJQL]LQJ )DFHV %ULWLVK -RXUQDO RI 3V\FKRORJ\  

(SOH\ 1 :D\W] $  &DFLRSSR - 7  2Q 6HHLQJ +XPDQ $ 7KUHH)DFWRU
7KHRU\RI$QWKURSRPRUSKLVP3V\FKRORJLFDO5HYLHZ



$UWLFOH,,

)DUDK0-:LOVRQ.''UDLQ+0 7DQDND-57KH,QYHUWHG)DFH

,QYHUVLRQ (IIHFW LQ 3URVRSDJQRVLD  (YLGHQFH IRU 0DQGDWRU\ )DFH6SHFLILF
3HUFHSWXDO0HFKDQLVPV9LVLRQ5HVHDUFK
)LW]PDXULFH * /DLUG 1  :DUH -  $SSOLHG /RQJLWXGLQDO $QDO\VLV
+RERNHQ-RKQ:LOH\ 6RQV
)R[(/HVWHU95XVVR5%RZOHV5-3LFKOHU$ 'XWWRQ.)DFLDO
([SUHVVLRQV RI (PRWLRQ $UH $QJU\ )DFHV 'HWHFWHG 0RUH (IILFLHQWO\"
&RJQLWLRQ (PRWLRQ
*D]]DQLJD06,YU\5% 0DQJXQ*5&RJQLWLYH1HXURVFLHQFH7KH
%LRORJ\RIWKH0LQGQGHG1HZ<RUN::1RUWRQ &RPSDQ\
+DQVHQ &+  +DQVHQ5' )LQGLQJWKH)DFH LQWKH&URZG $Q$QJHU
6XSHULRULW\ (IIHFW -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\  

+D[E\ - 9 +RIIPDQ ( $  *REELQL 0 ,  +XPDQ 1HXUDO 6\VWHPV IRU
)DFH5HFRJQLWLRQDQG6RFLDO&RPPXQLFDWLRQ%LRORJLFDO3V\FKLDWU\

+HQGHUVRQ - 0  +ROOLQJZRUWK $  +LJK/HYHO 6FHQH 3HUFHSWLRQ $QQXDO
5HYLHZRI3V\FKRORJ\
+RUVWPDQQ *  9LVXDO 6HDUFK IRU 6FKHPDWLF $IIHFWLYH )DFHV 6WDELOLW\ DQG
9DULDELOLW\ RI 6HDUFK 6ORSHV ZLWK 'LIIHUHQW ,QVWDQFHV &RJQLWLRQ  (PRWLRQ

.DQZLVKHU 1 0F'HUPRWW -  &KXQ 0 0  7KH )XVLIRUP )DFH $UHD $
0RGXOHLQ+XPDQ([WUDVWULDWH&RUWH[6SHFLDOL]HGIRU)DFH3HUFHSWLRQ-RXUQDO
RI1HXURVFLHQFH
/DQGZHKU-50F*LOO$/ +HUUPDQQ$7KH(PRWLRQDO&DU)DFH7KH
2SWLPDO0L[RI)ULHQGO\DQG$JJUHVVLYH'HVLJQ(OHPHQWV3URFHHGLQJVRIWKH
WK $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH (XURSHDQ 0DUNHWLQJ $FDGHP\ (0$&
.RSHQKDJHQ(0$&



$UWLFOH,,

/DQGZHKU-50F*LOO$/ +HUUPDQQ$,WV*RWWKH/RRN7KH(IIHFW

RI)ULHQGO\DQG$JJUHVVLYH)DFLDO([SUHVVLRQVRQ3URGXFW/LNLQJDQG6DOHV
-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ
/HGRX[ - (  (PRWLRQ 0HPRU\ DQG WKH %UDLQ 6FLHQWLILF $PHULFDQ 

/RUHQ] .  *DQ]KHLW XQG 7HLO LQ GHU WLHULVFKHQ XQG PHQVFKOLFKHQ
*HPHLQVFKDIW6WXGLXP*HQHUDOH
/XQGTYLVW'(VWHYHV) gKPDQ$7KH)DFHRI:UDWK&ULWLFDO)HDWXUHV
IRU&RQYH\LQJ)DFLDO7KUHDW&RJQLWLRQ (PRWLRQ
/XQGTYLVW ' (VWHYHV )  gKPDQ $  7KH )DFH RI :UDWK 7KH 5ROH RI
)HDWXUHV DQG &RQILJXUDWLRQV LQ &RQYH\LQJ 6RFLDO 7KUHDW &RJQLWLRQ DQG
(PRWLRQ
/\QQ 0 .DPSVFKURHGHU .  3HUHLUD $  (YROXWLRQDU\ 3HUVSHFWLYHV RQ
&RQVXPHU %HKDYLRU $Q ,QWURGXFWLRQ $GYDQFHV LQ &RQVXPHU 5HVHDUFK 

0D]XU$ %RRWK$7HVWRVWHURQHDQG'RPLQDQFHLQ0HQ%HKDYLRUDODQG
%UDLQ6FLHQFHV
0LHVOHU /  /HGHU +  7KH &XWH /RRN %DE\6FKHPD (IIHFWV LQ 3URGXFW
'HVLJQ 3DSHU SUHVHQWHG DW WKH WK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO &RQIHUHQFH RQ 'HVLJQ DQG
(PRWLRQ&KLFDJR
0LHVOHU / /DQGZHKU - 5 +HUUPDQQ $  0F*LOO $ /  &RQVXPHU DQG
3URGXFW )DFHWR)DFH $QWHFHGHQWV DQG &RQVHTXHQFHV RI 6SRQWDQHRXV )DFH
6FKHPD$FWLYDWLRQ$GYDQFHVLQ&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
0RUULV - 6 gKPDQ $  'RODQ 5 -  &RQVFLRXV DQG 8QFRQVFLRXV
(PRWLRQDO/HDUQLQJLQWKH+XPDQ$P\JGDOD1DWXUH
0RVFRYLWFK 0 :LQRFXU *  %HKUPDQQ 0  :KDW ,V 6SHFLDO DERXW )DFH
5HFRJQLWLRQ" 1LQHWHHQ ([SHULPHQWV RQ D 3HUVRQ ZLWK 9LVXDO 2EMHFW $JQRVLD
DQG'\VOH[LDEXW1RUPDO)DFH5HFRJQLWLRQ-RXUQDORI&RJQLWLYH1HXURVFLHQFH



$UWLFOH,,

gKPDQ $  'LPEHUJ 8  )DFLDO ([SUHVVLRQV DV &RQGLWLRQHG 6WLPXOL IRU
(OHFWURGHUPDO 5HVSRQVHV $ &DVH RI 3UHSDUHGQHVV" -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\
DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\
gKPDQ$/XQGTYLVW' (VWHYHV)7KH)DFHLQWKH&URZG5HYLVLWHG$
7KUHDW $GYDQWDJH ZLWK 6FKHPDWLF 6WLPXOL -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO
3V\FKRORJ\
3LQKHLUR - %DWHV ' 'HE5R\ 6 6DUNDU '  WKH 5 &RUH 7HDP  QOPH
/LQHDUDQG1RQOLQHDU0L[HG(IIHFWV0RGHOV9HUVLRQ
3XUXFNHU &  :KHQ 'R 0RXWKV 0DWWHU" $ &URVV&XOWXUDO $VVHVVPHQW RI
&RQVXPHUV3UHIHUHQFHV7RZDUGV$QWKURSRPRUSKLF&DU)URQWV3URFHHGLQJVRI
WKH VW $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH (XURSHDQ 0DUNHWLQJ $FDGHP\ (0$&
/LVERQ(0$&
5LQFN0 %HFNHU(66SLGHU)HDUIXO,QGLYLGXDOV$WWHQGWR7KUHDW7KHQ
4XLFNO\ $YRLG ,W (YLGHQFH IURP (\H 0RYHPHQWV -RXUQDO RI $EQRUPDO
3V\FKRORJ\
5RXVVHOHW*$0DFH0-0 )DEUH7KRUSH0,V,W$Q$QLPDO",V,W$
+XPDQ)DFH")DVW3URFHVVLQJLQ8SULJKWDQG,QYHUWHG1DWXUDO6FHQHV-RXUQDO
RI9LVLRQ
5XVVHOO-$$&LUFXPSOH[0RGHORI$IIHFW-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\ 6RFLDO
3V\FKRORJ\
6DDG *  *LOO 7  $SSOLFDWLRQV RI (YROXWLRQDU\ 3V\FKRORJ\ LQ 0DUNHWLQJ
3V\FKRORJ\ 0DUNHWLQJ
6HOLJPDQ 0 (  2Q WKH *HQHUDOLW\ RI /DZV RI /HDUQLQJ 3V\FKRORJLFDO
5HYLHZ
7HUEXUJ ' +RRLYHOG 1 $DUWV + .HQHPDQV - /  YDQ +RQN -  (\H
7UDFNLQJ 8QFRQVFLRXV )DFHWR)DFH &RQIURQWDWLRQV 3V\FKRORJLFDO 6FLHQFH

7KRPSVRQ30DUJDUHW7KDWFKHU$1HZ,OOXVLRQ3HUFHSWLRQ



$UWLFOH,,

7LQEHUJHQ17KH6WXG\RI,QVWLQFW2VIRUG&ODUHQGRQ3UHVV

:D\W]$&DFLRSSR-7 (SOH\1:KR6HHV+XPDQ"7KH6WDELOLW\DQG
,PSRUWDQFH RI ,QGLYLGXDO 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ $QWKURSRPRUSKLVP 3HUVSHFWLYHV RQ
3V\FKRORJLFDO6FLHQFH
:LQGKDJHU6+XW]OHU)&DUERQ&&2EHU]DXFKHU(6FKDHIHU.7KRUVWHQVHQ
7    *UDPPHU .  /D\LQJ (\HV RQ +HDGOLJKWV (\H 0RYHPHQWV
6XJJHVW)DFLDO)HDWXUHVLQ&DUV&ROOHJLXP$QWURSRORJLFXP
:LQGKDJHU 6 6OLFH ' ( 6FKDHIHU . 2EHU]DXFKHU ( 7KRUVWHQVHQ 7 
*UDPPHU .  )DFH WR )DFH 7KH 3HUFHSWLRQ RI $XWRPRWLYH 'HVLJQV
+XPDQ1DWXUH
:LQNLHOPDQ 3 %HUULGJH . &  :LOEDUJHU - /  8QFRQVFLRXV $IIHFWLYH
5HDFWLRQV WR 0DVNHG +DSS\ 9HUVXV $QJU\ )DFHV ,QIOXHQFH &RQVXPSWLRQ
%HKDYLRUDQG-XGJPHQWVRI9DOXH3HUVRQDOLW\DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\%XOOHWLQ




$UWLFOH,,,
3XUXFNHU&LQSUHSDUDWLRQIRUVXEPLVVLRQ+HDGOLJKW3UHIHUHQFHV$&URVV&XOWXUDO
$VVHVVPHQW RI &RQVXPHUV 3HUFHSWLRQV RI $QWKURSRPRUSKLF &DU )URQWV
0DUNHWLQJ/HWWHUV





+HDGOLJKW3UHIHUHQFHV
$&URVV&XOWXUDO$VVHVVPHQWRI&RQVXPHUV3HUFHSWLRQV
RI$QWKURSRPRUSKLF&DU)URQWV




&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU











&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHULV'RFWRUDO&DQGLGDWHRI0DUNHWLQJ&HQWHUIRU&XVWRPHU
,QVLJKW8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU#XQLVJFK


$UWLFOH,,,

$EVWUDFW
$OWKRXJK LW LV RI HFRQRPLF LPSRUWDQFH PDUNHWLQJ UHVHDUFKHUV KDYH MXVW VWDUWHG
H[SORULQJFRQVXPHUVGHVLJQSUHIHUHQFHVDQGZHVWLOONQRZOLWWOHDERXWFURVVFXOWXUDO
YDULDWLRQV RI WKHVH SUHIHUHQFHV ,Q WZR VWXGLHV IHDWXULQJ SDUWLFLSDQW VDPSOHV IURP
&KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQ LQWHUFXOWXUDO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI FRQVXPHUV
SHUFHSWLRQRIFDUIURQWVLVSXUVXHG%XLOGLQJRQSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKRQDQWKURSRPRUSKLF
KXPDQOLNHSURGXFWGHVLJQDQGHPRWLRQSHUFHSWLRQLWLVIRXQGWKDWFRQVXPHUVDFURVV
DOOFRXQWULHVSHUFHLYHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWVRQWZRDIIHFWLYHFRUHGLPHQVLRQV
1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH DQG 3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\ +RZHYHU FOHDU GLIIHUHQFHV HPHUJH ZLWK
UHVSHFW WR WKH HIIHFW RI SDUWLFXODU GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV RQ SDUWLFLSDQWV OLNLQJV LQ WKH (DVW
DQGLQWKH:HVW7KHRUHWLFDODQGSUDFWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHILQGLQJVDUHGLVFXVVHG

.H\ZRUGV $QWKURSRPRUSKLVP 3URGXFW 'HVLJQ &DU 'HVLJQ &URVV&XOWXUDO 'HVLJQ
3URGXFW3HUFHSWLRQ




$UWLFOH,,,

,QWURGXFWLRQ
)RU WKH *HUPDQ DXWRPRELOH PDQXIDFWXUHU $XGL  ZDV DQ RXWVWDQGLQJ \HDU ZLWK
&KLQDEHFRPLQJWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWPDUNHWIRUWKHILUVWWLPHLQWKHFRPSDQ\VKLVWRU\
;LDR%0:DQG0HUFHGHVWZRRWKHUSUHPLXPFDUPDQXIDFWXUHUVDOVRUHSRUW
UHFRUGVDOHVKDYLQJVROGXQLWVLQWKHILUVWKDOIRIDORQH;LDR,Q
DQWLFLSDWLRQ RI IXWXUH GHYHORSPHQWV DOO WKUHH FRPSDQLHV KDYH RSHQHG VSHFLDOL]HG
GHVLJQ GHSDUWPHQWV LQ %HLMLQJ LQ  &KLQD $XGL 0HUFHGHV  2EYLRXVO\
WKHVHFDUPDQXIDFWXUHUVDUHQRWRQO\WU\LQJWRXQGHUVWDQGWKHLU&KLQHVHFXVWRPHUVEXW
DOVRZDQWWRGHVLJQIXWXUHFDUVWDLORUHGWRWKHLUQHHGVDQGSUHIHUHQFHV
&OHDUO\ WKH FXUUHQW HFRQRPLF ULVH RI &KLQDKDV HQDEOHG &KLQHVHFXVWRPHUVWR DIIRUG
JRRGV WKDW ZHUH QRW DYDLODEOH WR WKHP D IHZ GHFDGHV DJR 1RW RQO\ FDUV EXW LQ D
EURDGHUVHQVHOX[XU\ DQGSUHPLXPJRRGVIURPYDULRXVFDWHJRULHVKDYHQRZEHFRPH
DYDLODEOH WR WKH &KLQHVH SXEOLF DQG FXUUHQW VDOHV JURZWKV LOOXVWUDWH WKH KXJH VXFFHVV
WKDW PDQXIDFWXUHUV RI WKHVH JRRGV H[SHULHQFH ;LDR  :LWKRXW GRXEW SURGXFW
GHVLJQFDQEHPDGHUHVSRQVLEOHIRUWKHZLGHVXFFHVVRIYDULRXVSURGXFWVDQGEUDQGV
DQG WKH PHQWLRQHG SUHPLXP DXWRPRELOHV MXVW VHUYH DQ LOOXVWUDWLYH SXUSRVH ZKLOH RI
FRXUVHRQHPLJKWHDVLO\GUDZH[DPSOHVIURPRWKHUFDWHJRULHVVXFKDV$SSOHSURGXFWV
IRUHOHFWURQLFFRQVXPHUJRRGV6WLOODVLGHIURPXVXDOPLQRUDGDSWDWLRQVVXFKDVORQJ
ZKHHOEDVHYHUVLRQVRULQWHJUDWHGWHDPDNHUVIRUFDUVPRVWRIWKHJRRGVFXUUHQWO\VROG
LQ &KLQD ZHUH GHVLJQHG ZLWK :HVWHUQ PDUNHWV LQ PLQG VXFK DV WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV RU
(XURSH :KLOH WKLV PLJKW QRW EH FRQVLGHUHG SUREOHPDWLF IRU SXUHO\ IXQFWLRQDO
SURGXFWV OX[XU\ JRRGV VXFK DV SUHPLXP FDUV FUHDWH D FRQVLGHUDEOH SDUW RI WKHLU
FXVWRPHUDSSHDOE\DGGUHVVLQJHPRWLRQDOQHHGV,QUHFHQW\HDUVWKHUHKDVEHHQDJUHDW
GHDO RI PDUNHWLQJ UHVHDUFK WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ FXVWRPHU
SUHIHUHQFHV DQG SURGXFW GHVLJQ FI %ORFK  5HJDUGLQJ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI FDU
GHVLJQVRPHNQRZOHGJHKDVEHHQDFFXPXODWHGWDNLQJWKHHYROXWLRQDU\SHUVSHFWLYHRI
DQWKURSRPRUSKLVP LQ SURGXFW GHVLJQ +RZHYHU WKHVH SUHYLRXV ILQGLQJV FOHDUO\ ODFN
FURVVFXOWXUDO YDOLGDWLRQ VR IDU DV DOPRVW DOO UHSRUWHG VWXGLHV ZHUH FRQGXFWHG ZLWK
VXEMHFWVRI86$PHULFDQRUDWOHDVW:HVWHUQFXOWXUDOEDFNJURXQGV,QUHVSRQVHWRWKLV
UHVHDUFK JDS DQG UHFHQW HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQWV WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN LQWHQGV WR WDNH D
ILUVWVWHSWRZDUGVDFURVVFXOWXUDOXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIGHVLJQSHUFHSWLRQ
7KLV SDSHU IRFXVHV RQ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV LH GLVSOD\LQJ
GHVLJQIHDWXUHVWKDWFDQIRUH[DPSOHEHSHUFHLYHGDVKXPDQDIIHFWLYHIDFLDOWUDLWV,Q


$UWLFOH,,,

WKHOLWHUDWXUHVHFWLRQGHVLJQOLWHUDWXUHIURPPDUNHWLQJUHVHDUFKLVUHYLHZHGDVZHOODV
ZRUNV IURP SV\FKRORJ\ RQ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI VFKHPDWLF IDFHV DQG FURVVFXOWXUDO
SHUFHSWLRQDOGLIIHUHQFHV7KHHPSLULFDOVHFWLRQIHDWXUHVUHVXOWVIURPWZRVWXGLHV7KH
ILUVW RQH FORVHO\ H[DPLQHV WKH SV\FKRPHWULF SURSHUWLHV RI WKH LPSOHPHQWHG DIIHFWLYH
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQW GHVLJQ DQG HVWDEOLVKHV WKH OLQN WR UHODWHG OLWHUDWXUH RQ
KXPDQVFKHPDWLFIDFHSHUFHSWLRQDQGSHUFHSWLRQDOGLPHQVLRQVRIDIIHFWLYHVWLPXOL,Q
WKH VHFRQG VWXG\ WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ LV WDNHQ WR D FURVVFXOWXUDO OHYHO ORRNLQJ DW
LQWHUFXOWXUDOSHUFHSWLRQDOGLIIHUHQFHVIRUDQWKURSRPRUSKLFDIIHFWLYHFDUIURQWVEHWZHHQ
SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP &KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV )LQDOO\ WKHRUHWLFDO DQG
SUDFWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQVRIWKHILQGLQJVDUHGLVFXVVHG

/LWHUDWXUHUHYLHZ
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQ ZLOO SURYLGH D JHQHUDO RYHUYLHZ RI WKH UHVHDUFK IURP UHFHQW
\HDUVRQDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQLQPDUNHWLQJ$VDFRQVLGHUDEOHSDUWRIWKH
QDPHGOLWHUDWXUHUHOLHGKHDYLO\RQDIIHFWLYHFDUIURQWVZHDOVRUHYLHZOLWHUDWXUHIURP
SV\FKRORJLFDOUHVHDUFKZKLFKLQYHVWLJDWHGWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIVFKHPDWLFDIIHFWLYHIDFHV
5HVHDUFKREMHFWLYHVDUHGHGXFWHGLQDFRQVHFXWLYHVHFWLRQ

$QWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQ
7KH SHUFHSWLRQ RI SURGXFW GHVLJQ KDV UHFHLYHG D ORW RI DWWHQWLRQ IURP FRQVXPHU
UHVHDUFK IROORZLQJ DQ LQIOXHQWLDO DUWLFOH E\ %ORFK  ,Q WKH SDVW GHFDGH YDULRXV
VWXGLHVKDYHSRLQWHGRXWWKHLQIOXHQWLDOUROHRISURGXFWGHVLJQIRUPDUNHWVXFFHVV)RU
H[DPSOH/DQGZHKU0F*LOODQG+HUUPDQQGHPRQVWUDWHGWKDWVSHFLILFDVSHFWV
RIFDUGHVLJQQRWRQO\DFFRXQWIRUFRQVXPHUOLNLQJRIWKHSDUWLFXODUFDUPRGHOEXWFDQ
DOVRVHUYHPRUHJHQHUDOO\DVDYDOXDEOHSUHGLFWRUIRUDXWRPRELOHVDOHVLQWKH*HUPDQ
FRQVXPHU PDUNHW +RZHYHU WKH FRQFHSWXDO PHDQLQJ RI GHVLJQ LV YHU\ EURDG DQG
UHVHDUFKHUV LQ WKH SDVW KDYH IRFXVHG WKHLU UHVHDUFK RQ VSHFLILF DVSHFWV VXFK DV
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ $QWKURSRPRUSKLVP JHQHUDOO\ GHVFULEHV WKH KXPDQ
WHQGHQF\RIDSSO\LQJKXPDQWUDLWVWRQRQOLYLQJREMHFWVDQGWKLVSKHQRPHQRQLVIRXQG
LQPDQ\SURGXFWVDVDGHVLJQSULQFLSOH$JJDUZDO 0F*LOO:KHQORRNLQJDW
FDU IURQWV SHRSOH UHDGLO\ DQWKURSRPRUSKL]H LQ WKH SUHVHQFH RI IHDWXUHV WKDW DUH
FRQJUXHQW WR WKH KXPDQ VFKHPD $JJDUZDO  0F*LOO  6LPLODU WR ZKDW ZDV
IRXQG ZLWK KXPDQ IDFHV VKDSH GHVLJQV RI FDU IURQWV LQIOXHQFH WKH WUDLW DVVRFLDWLRQV


$UWLFOH,,,

SHRSOH KDYH ZKHQ ORRNLQJ DW WKHVH FDUV HJ WKH KHDGOLJKWV UHVHPEOLQJ H\HV
:LQGKDJHU HW DO  0RUHRYHU LQ WKH ODWWHU H[SHULPHQW DOPRVW  RI WKH
SDUWLFLSDQWV DVVRFLDWHG UHDOOLIH FDU IURQWV ZLWK DQLPDWH SURSHUWLHV ,Q OLQH ZLWK WKLV
DQWKURSRPRUSKL]DWLRQ LV GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH YLVXDO DQJOH DW ZKLFK D SURGXFW ZDV
SUHVHQWHG WR WKH FRQVXPHU 0LHVOHU /DQGZHKU +HUUPDQQ  0F*LOO  ZLWK D
FDU IURQW SURYLGLQJ PRUH KXPDQOLNH IHDWXUHV WKDQ WKH VLGH YLHZ 7DNLQJ D PRUH
GHWDLOHG ORRN DW GHVLJQ IHDWXUH FRPSRVLWLRQV RQ FDUV IDFHV LW ZDV IRXQG WKDW SHRSOH
WHQGHG WR SUHIHU D FRPELQDWLRQ RI DJJUHVVLYH ORRNLQJ KHDGOLJKWV DQG D IULHQGO\ JULOOH
/DQGZHKU HW DO  $OWKRXJK WKH FLWHG ZRUN GLG QRW HVWDEOLVK WKH OLQN VR IDU
VWURQJSDUDOOHOVFDQEHREVHUYHGEHWZHHQWKHUHVHDUFKRQDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWV
DQGWKHUHVHDUFKRQVFKHPDWLFDIIHFWLYHIDFHVFROOVPLOH\VLQEDVLFSV\FKRORJLFDO
UHVHDUFK

3HUFHSWLRQDQGFRQFHSWLRQRIVFKHPDWLFIDFHV
$ORWRIZRUNKDVEHHQGRQHRQWKHKXPDQSHUFHSWLRQRIDIIHFWLYHIDFLDOH[SUHVVLRQV
ZKLOH DOVR H[SORULQJ YDULRXV ZD\V RI JUDSKLFDOO\ UHSUHVHQWLQJ WKHP DV VFKHPDWLF
GUDZLQJV ,Q D UHYLHZ +RUVWPDQQ  FRPSDUHV VHYHUDO GHVLJQ FRQFHSWV RQ
SDUWLFLSDQWV UDWLQJV UHJDUGLQJ QDWXUDOQHVV DQG DIIHFWLYH YDOXH JHQHUDOO\ LQGLFDWLQJ
IDYRUDEOHVFRUHVWRDVWLPXOXVVHWWKDWKDVEHHQLQLWVEDVLFIRUPLQLWLDOO\SURSRVHGE\
/XQGTYLVW(VWHYHVDQGgKPDQ0RUHRYHULQFRQWUDVWWRDOORWKHUVWLPXOLVHWV
IURP WKH FRPSDULVRQ WKH YDULDQWV RI WKH VHW UHOLHG RQ VHYHUDO IDFLDO IHDWXUHV WR YDU\
WKUHDW SHUFHSWLRQ HJ WKH PRXWK DQG WKH H\HV 2Q WKH FRQWUDU\ DOO RWKHU VHWV
GLVSOD\HG WKLV YDULDWLRQ E\ FKDQJLQJ RQO\ D VLQJOH IHDWXUH WKH PRXWK %XLOGLQJ RQ
VHYHUDO ZRUNV WKH DXWKRUV LGHQWLILHG VFKHPDWLF IDFLDO IHDWXUHV WKDW FRQYH\HG
WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ DIIHFW EHVW DQG WKHQ VXEVHTXHQWO\ EURXJKW WKHVH
IHDWXUHV LQWR D KLHUDUFKLFDO RUGHU /XQGTYLVW HW DO  /XQGTYLVW (VWHYHV 
gKPDQgKPDQ/XQGTYLVW (VWHYHV7KHHIIHFWVRIVLQJOHIHDWXUHVRQ
WKH YLHZHUV DIIHFWLYH UDWLQJV ZHUH IRXQG WR EH LQWHUSUHWHG LQ WKH OLJKW RI WKH RWKHU
IHDWXUHV LQ WKH IDFLDO FRQILJXUDWLRQ ZKLFK IROORZHG D FOHDU KLHUDUFK\ $FFRUGLQJ WR
WKHLUILQGLQJVWKHH\HEURZVZHUHPRVWLPSRUWDQWIROORZHGE\WKHPRXWKDQGWKHH\HV
DQG WKH OHDVW LPSRUWDQW ZDV WKH IDFH RXWOLQH $ VLPSOH FRPELQDWLRQ RI H\HEURZV DQG
PRXWK FRQYH\HG WKUHDW LQ D IDVKLRQ FRPSDUDEOH WR PRUH FRPSOH[ IHDWXUH
FRPELQDWLRQV )XUWKHUPRUH E\ DSSO\LQJ HVWDEOLVKHG VHPDQWLF GLIIHUHQWLDO VFDOHV FI
$URQRII %DUFOD\  6WHYHQVRQ  2VJRRG  6FKORVEHUJ  WKH DXWKRUV
ZHUH DEOH WR FDOFXODWH WKH HIIHFWV RI WKHLU IHDWXUH YDULDWLRQV RQ WKH HPRWLRQDO


$UWLFOH,,,

GLPHQVLRQV $FWLYLW\ 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH DQG 3RWHQF\ KHUHE\ UHO\LQJ RQ VXEMHFW
VDPSOHVIURP:HVWHUQLQGXVWULDOL]HGFRXQWULHV$VDJHQHUDOILQGLQJLWZDVVWDWHGWKDW
WKUHDWHQLQJ VWLPXOL FDQ EH VHHQ DV PRUH DFWLYH PRUH QHJDWLYH LQ YDOHQFH DQG PRUH
SRZHUIXO$URQRII:RLNH +\PDQ/XQGTYLVWHWDO

6WXG\REMHFWLYHV
:KLOH SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK RQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ KDV UHOLHG RIWHQ RQ FDU
IURQWVGLVSOD\LQJDIIHFWLYHH[SUHVVLRQVWKH OLQNWRVFKHPDWLFIDFHUHVHDUFKKDV \HWWR
EH HVWDEOLVKHG )XUWKHUPRUH WR WKH EHVW RI WKH DXWKRUV NQRZOHGJH WKHUH LV RQO\ RQH
SLHFH RI ZRUN WR GDWH WKDW KDV VWDUWHG WR H[SORUH SV\FKRPHWULF SURSHUWLHV RI WKLV
SDUWLFXODU VWLPXOXV PDWHULDO /DQGZHKU 0F*LOO  +HUUPDQQ  &RQFHUQLQJ
VWLPXOXV FRQVWUXFWLRQ H[LVWLQJ ZRUNV KDYH VR IDU UHOLHG RQ VWLPXOL WKDW KDYH EHHQ
PDQLSXODWHGLQUDWKHUSUDJPDWLFZD\VVXFKDVSKRWRJUDSKVRIFDUIURQWVZKLFKKDYH
EHHQPDQLSXODWHGE\LQYHUWLQJWKHFDUVJULOOH$JJDUZDO 0F*LOORUE\DVNLQJ
SURIHVVLRQDOGHVLJQHUV WRDOWHUWKHH[LVWLQJGHVLJQVWRDIULHQGO\RUDQDJJUHVVLYH
YHUVLRQ/DQGZHKUHWDO
:LWK WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN ZH VHHN WR FORVH WKLV JDS LQ NQRZOHGJH E\ FRQVWUXFWLQJ DQG
LPSOHPHQWLQJ DQ DIIHFWLYH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQW GHVLJQ WKDW FORVHO\ IROORZV WKH
IHDWXUH GHVLJQ JXLGHOLQHV IURP SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK 0RUHRYHU WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO
SURSHUWLHV RI WKH VWLPXOXV PDWHULDO DUH LQYHVWLJDWHG E\ IROORZLQJ WKH RXWOLQHG
SURFHGXUHV UHO\LQJ RQ VHPDQWLF GLIIHUHQWLDO DVVHVVPHQWV WR HVWDEOLVK D FORVH
UHODWLRQVKLSWRWKHOLWHUDWXUH:KLOHUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHDJUHHGWKDWKXPDQDIIHFWLYHIDFLDO
H[SUHVVLRQVDUHMXGJHGRQWKHSHUFHSWLRQDOGLPHQVLRQV1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH$FWLYLW\DQG
3RWHQF\ FI /XQGTYLVW HW DO  WKLV SDWWHUQ PLJKW EH VOLJKWO\ DOWHUHG IRU WKH
SHUFHSWLRQ RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFWV 7KH SDOHWWH RI SRVVLEOH DIIHFWLYH GHVLJQ
H[SUHVVLRQV LV RIWHQ OLPLWHG E\ IXQFWLRQDO DQG RWKHU SURGXFWLQKHUHQW GHVLJQ
OLPLWDWLRQV )RU H[DPSOH RQH PLJKW WKLQN RI KRXVH GHVLJQV FRQWDLQLQJ IDFLDO DIIHFW
HOHPHQWVWKDWHOLFLW9DOHQFHRU3RWHQF\SHUFHSWLRQVEXWRQHFDQKDUGO\LPDJLQHDVROLG
KRXVHWRVFRUHYDULDEO\RQWKH$FWLYLW\GLPHQVLRQ/LNHZLVHFRQVLGHUDWLRQVPD\KROG
IRUPLGVL]HFDUVZKHUHDVELJJHUFDUVRIWHQDOVRFRQWDLQELJJHUDQGVWURQJHUHQJLQHV
PDNLQJ LQ HIIHFW PRUH SRWHQWORRNLQJ FDUV PRUH DJLOH DQG DFWLYH %DVHG RQ WKLV
UHDVRQLQJ D FDUHIXO LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFWV SHUFHSWLRQDO
SURSHUWLHV LV FOHDUO\ LQGLFDWHG DQG VOLJKW GHYLDWLRQV IURP WKH IDFH SHUFHSWLRQ
GLPHQVLRQVDUHWREHH[SHFWHG


$UWLFOH,,,

6HFRQGO\ DQG PRUH LPSRUWDQWO\ WKH DLP RI WKH VWXG\ LV WR SXUVXH D FURVVFXOWXUDO
LQYHVWLJDWLRQRIWKHVHSHUFHSWLRQDOSURSHUWLHVIURPDPXOWLFRXQWU\SHUVSHFWLYH7RWKH
EHVW RI WKH DXWKRUV NQRZOHGJH WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK RQ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW
GHVLJQ DQG SDUWLFXODUO\ FDU IURQWV KDV VR IDU QRW EHHQ FRQGXFWHG ZLWK SDUWLFLSDQW
VDPSOHV RWKHU WKDQ IURP WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG (XURSH :KLOH FODVVLFDO HYROXWLRQDU\
WKHRULHVLGHQWLILHGKXPDQHPRWLRQSHUFHSWLRQWREHFURVVFXOWXUDOO\XQLYHUVDO(NPDQ
QHZHUOLWHUDWXUHVXJJHVWVILQHJUDLQHGFXOWXUDOO\PRGLILHGGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQ
(DVWHUQ DQG :HVWHUQ FXOWXUHV ZKHQ LW FRPHV WR WKH UHDGLQJ RI IDFLDOO\ H[SUHVVHG
HPRWLRQV )RU LQVWDQFH SHRSOH ZHUH UHSRUWHG WR EH DEOH WR HYDOXDWH WKH HPRWLRQDO
H[SUHVVLRQRILQGLYLGXDOVRULJLQDWLQJLQDIDPLOLDUFXOWXUDOEDFNJURXQGPRUHSUHFLVHO\
WKDQ WKRVH IURP XQIDPLOLDU FXOWXUHV (OIHQEHLQ  $PEDG\  7KLV VXJJHVWV WKDW
IDFLDOGLDOHFWVDUHFXOWXUDOO\OHDUQHG,QDFURVVFXOWXUDOVWXG\LQYROYLQJ-DSDQHVHDQG
86 VDPSOHV <XNL 0DGGX[ DQG 0DVXGD  VWDWH WKDW WKH RSHQ H[SUHVVLRQ RI
HPRWLRQVSDUWLFXODUO\QHJDWLYHDIIHFWLQYROYLQJWKHPRXWKUHJLRQLVIURZQHGXSRQLQ
VRPH$VLDQFRXQWULHVDQGWKHH\HVWHQGWRKDYHDKLJKHUGLDJQRVWLFLW\ZKHQUHDGLQJ
HPRWLRQDO H[SUHVVLRQV LQ WKRVH FXOWXUHV RI HPRWLRQDO VXEGXFWLRQ 7KLV LV DOVR
LOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHIDFWWKDWHPRWLFRQVLQ$VLDIRFXVPRUHRQWKHH\HVZKLOHWKHPRXWK
LVSUHGRPLQDQWLQ(XURSHDQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVHJABAYV7KHUHIRUHRQHKDV
UHDVRQWRH[SHFWWKDWWKHDSSUHFLDWLRQRIDIIHFWLYHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFGHVLJQVHJFDU
IURQWV GLIIHUV EHWZHHQ (DVWHUQ DQG :HVWHUQ FXOWXUHV LQ SDUWLFXODU ZLWK UHJDUG WR WKH
H[SUHVVLRQRIQHJDWLYHDIIHFW

(PSLULFDOVWXGLHV
,Q WKH VXEVHTXHQW HPSLULFDO SDUW DQ DIIHFWLYH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQW GHVLJQ LV
GHYHORSHG DQG LWV SV\FKRPHWULF SURSHUWLHV DUH DVVHVVHG HPSOR\LQJ D FURVVFXOWXUDO
SHUVSHFWLYH

6WXG\
,Q 6WXG\  WKH FUHDWLRQ SURFHVV DV ZHOO DV WKH YLVXDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH VWLPXOXV
PDWHULDOLVGHVFULEHG)XUWKHUPRUHLWLVH[DPLQHGZKHWKHUWKHSHUFHSWLRQDOGLPHQVLRQV
IRU VFKHPDWLF DIIHFWLYH IDFHV DOVR KROG IRU WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU
IURQWV



$UWLFOH,,,

6WLPXOL
)RU WKH FUHDWLRQ RI WKH VWLPXOXV PDWHULDO FRQVWUXFWLRQ JXLGHOLQHV ZHUH GHULYHG IURP
UHVHDUFK RQ WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI VFKHPDWLF IDFHV 6LQFH D UHYLHZ RI YDULRXV VFKHPDWLF
IDFHVIRXQGLWWRVFRUHUHDVRQDEO\KLJKRQDIIHFWDQGQDWXUDOQHVVVFDOHVLQFRPSDULVRQ
WR RWKHU YDULDQWV FI +RUVWPDQQ  WKH VWLPXOXV VHW E\ /XQGTYLVW HW DO 
VHUYHG DV D JHQHUDO PRGHO IRU WKH GHVLJQ :LWK WKH H[FHSWLRQ RI PLQRU DGDSWDWLRQV
VXFKDVFRPELQLQJWKHH\HVDQGH\HEURZVIURPWKHRULJLQDODIIHFWLYHVHWWRWKHVLQJOH
HQWLW\ RI KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ WKH PRGHO FRXOG EH GLUHFWO\ DSSOLHG WR WKH UHDOP RI
DQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWGHVLJQ7KRURXJKSUHWHVWVZHUHFRQGXFWHG
7KH ILQDO FRPSOHWH VWLPXOXV VHW FRQVLVWHG RI WKH IROORZLQJ FDU GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV
KHDGOLJKWVORZHUDLUYHQWVDQGVLGHDLUYHQWV$OOIHDWXUHVH[LVWHGLQDWKUHDWHQLQJDQG
DQRQWKUHDWHQLQJDIIHFWLYHYDULDQWZKLFKEDVLFDOO\FRQVLVWHGRIWKHVDPHVKDSHVEXW
GLIIHUHG ZLWK UHVSHFW WR WKHLU RULHQWDWLRQ WKHUHIRUH HDFK GHVLJQ YDULDQW FRXOG EH
WUDQVIRUPHG WR WKH RSSRVLWH E\ URWDWLRQ RU PLUURULQJ 7KH UHVW RI WKH FDU ERG\
UHPDLQHGXQDOWHUHGWKURXJKRXWWKHVHWDQGZDVLQVSLUHGE\DPLGVL]HFDUWKDWZDVQRW
RQ WKH PDUNHW LQ DQ\ RI WKH FRXQWULHV RI LQYHVWLJDWLRQ :LWK DOO FRQWDLQHG VKDSHV
VWD\LQJ FRQVWDQW WKURXJKRXW WKH ZKROH VWLPXOXV VHW H[SHULPHQWDO FRQWURO ZDV JUHDWO\
LPSURYHG DV FRPSDUHG WR H[LVWLQJ VWXGLHV 7DEOH  GHSLFWV DOO HLJKW YDULDQWV RI WKH
FRPSOHWHVHWWRJHWKHUZLWKSDUWLFLSDQWVUDWLQJVIURP6WXG\
7DEOH
7KHFRPSOHWHVWLPXOXVVHWIURP6WXG\UHSRUWHGWRJHWKHUZLWKPHDQYDOXHVRQ
WKHVHPDQWLFVFDOHV



$UWLFOH,,,

3DUWLFLSDQWV
7KHZKROHVDPSOHLQ6WXG\ZDVUHFUXLWHGRQD86$PHULFDQXQLYHUVLW\FDPSXVDQG
FRQVLVWHG PDLQO\ RI VWXGHQWV 1   0$JH   \HDUV 6'$JH   3DUWLFLSDQWV
MRLQHGRQDYROXQWDU\EDVLVDQGWKHVDPSOHFRQVLVWHGURXJKO\HTXDOO\RIIHPDOHVDQG
PDOHV
([SHULPHQWDOSURFHGXUH
$OO SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR ILOO RXW D FRPSXWHUDGPLQLVWHUHG TXHVWLRQQDLUH 7KH
VWLPXOXVVHWFRQVLVWLQJRIWKHFDUIURQWGHVLJQVYDU\LQJLQDIIHFWLYHIHDWXUHFRPSRVLWLRQ
ZDVVKRZQWRHDFKRIWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVLQDUDQGRPL]HGRUGHU3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDVNHG
WRUDWHWKHFDUIURQWVXVLQJWKHELSRODUSRLQWVFDOHVVKRZQXQGHUWKHDFWXDOVWLPXOXV
3DUWLFLSDQWV KDG WR UDWH WKH FDU IURQW RQ VFDOHV DVVHVVLQJ WKH FODVVLFDO VHPDQWLF
GLPHQVLRQV $FWLYLW\ 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH DQG 3RWHQF\ DV XVHG LQ WKH VWXGLHV E\
/XQGTYLVWHWDODQGSUHYLRXVZRUNRQVFKHPDWLFIDFHVHJ$URQRIIHW
DO,WHPVDVVHVVLQJWKHVHPDQWLFGLPHQVLRQRI$FWLYLW\KDGWKHH[WUHPHSRLQWV
FDOPH[FLWDEOHLQHUWH[FLWDEOHDQGSDVVLYHDFWLYH1HJDWLYH9DOHQFHZDVFDSWXUHGE\
WKH VFDOHV IULHQGO\XQIULHQGO\ JRRGEDG NLQGFUXHO DQG SOHDVDQWXQSOHDVDQW ZKLOH
3RWHQF\ ZDV FDSWXUHG E\ OLJKWKHDY\ VPDOOODUJH DQG ZHDNVWURQJ $OO LWHPV RI WKH
VHPDQWLF GLIIHUHQWLDO ZHUH SUHVHQWHG LQ D UDQGRPL]HG IDVKLRQ 7KH JHQHUDO DQDO\VLV
IROORZV FORVHO\ WKH SURFHGXUHV LQ WKH QDPHG SDSHUV WR DOORZ IRU D FRPSDULVRQ RI WKH
UHVXOWV
$QDO\VLVDQGUHVXOWV
$ SULQFLSDO FRPSRQHQW DQDO\VLV ZDV FDOFXODWHG WR GHWHUPLQH ZKHWKHU WKH
DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV ZHUH UDWHG XVLQJ WKH VDPH XQGHUO\LQJ GLPHQVLRQDO
VWUXFWXUH DV ZDV LGHQWLILHG LQ SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK RQ VFKHPDWLF IDFHV $URQRII HW DO
 $URQRII HW DO  /XQGTYLVW HW DO   'DWD ZDV DYHUDJHG DFURVV
HDFK RI WKH VWLPXOL IRU HDFK RI WKH DIIHFWLYH VHPDQWLF VFDOHV DQG IDFWRUV ZLWK
(LJHQYDOXHV JUHDWHU WKDQ  ZHUH H[WUDFWHG 7KH IDFWRU VROXWLRQ ZDV URWDWHG
RUWKRJRQDOO\XVLQJ9DULPD[7ZRIDFWRUVZHUHIRXQGH[SODLQLQJRIWKHRYHUDOO
YDULDQFH7KHLWHPVORDGLQJRQWKHVHFRQGIDFWRU!ZHUHWKHRQHVWKDWORDGHGRQ
WKH IDFWRU 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH FI /XQGTYLVW HW DO  $OO RWKHU VFDOH LWHPV
UHSUHVHQWLQJWKHWZRVHSDUDWHIDFWRUV3RWHQF\DQG$FWLYLW\LQSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKORDGHG


$UWLFOH,,,

VXEVWDQWLDOO\RQWKHVDPHIDFWRUZKLFKLVVXEVHTXHQWO\FDOOHG3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\7DEOH
VKRZVIDFWRUVDQGIDFWRUORDGLQJVIRUWKHVFDOHLWHPV
7RDVVHVVWKHUHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHFDUIHDWXUHVDQGWKHXQGHUO\LQJGLPHQVLRQVRI
WKH VHPDQWLF UDWLQJV LGHQWLILHG LQ WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQ VHSDUDWH UHSHDWHG PHDVXUHV
$129$V ZHUH FDOFXODWHG IRU WKH WZR VFDOHV FUHDWHG E\ DYHUDJLQJ WKH VFRUHV RI WKH
LWHPVORDGLQJKLJKRQ3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\DQG1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH0HDQYDOXHVREWDLQHG
IRUHDFKRIWKHVWLPXOLDUHDOVRIRXQGLQ7DEOH
1H[W WKH LPSDFW RI WKH GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV RQ HDFK RI WKH FRPSRVLWH UDWLQJV ZDV
VWDWLVWLFDOO\ DQDO\]HG 7KH GHVLJQV RI KHDGOLJKWV ORZHU DLU YHQWV DQG VLGH DLU YHQWV
HDFK ZLWK D WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ YDULDQW ZHUH XVHG DV LQGHSHQGHQW
YDULDEOHVUHVXOWLQJLQD[[DQDO\VLV$VLQSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKSDUWLFLSDQWJHQGHU
GLG QRW VKRZ DQ\ LPSDFW RQ WKH UHVXOWV DQG WKXV ZDV QRW LQFOXGHG 5HVXOWV RI WKH
$129$VDUHVKRZQLQ7DEOH
7DEOH
)YDOXHVDQGOHYHOVRIVLJQLILFDQFHRIPDLQHIIHFWVDQGLQWHUDFWLRQHIIHFWVRIWKH
FDUIDFHVIURP6WXG\

(PRWLRQDOGLPHQVLRQV
(IIHFW

GI

1HJDWLYHYDOHQFH 3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\

+HDGOLJKWV+





/RZ HUDLUYHQW/$





6LGHDLUYHQWV6$





+[/$





+[6$





/$[6$





+[/$[6$





S  S  S %DVHOLQH 1RQWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQ

7KH GHVLJQ RI WKH KHDGOLJKWV DIIHFWHG ERWK HPRWLRQDO VFDOHV 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH DQG
3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\7KHWKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQYDULDQWUHVXOWHGRQDYHUDJHLQKLJKHUUDWLQJV
RQERWKVFDOHV7KHVKDSHRIWKHORZHUDLUYHQWZDVRQO\IRXQGWRLPSDFWWKHUDWLQJVRQ
1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH LQ D VLJQLILFDQW PDQQHU $V H[SHFWHG WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ ZDV
JLYHQ KLJKHU VFRUHV RQ WKLV VFDOH )XUWKHUPRUH D VLJQLILFDQW LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH
KHDGOLJKWGHVLJQDQGWKHGHVLJQRIWKHORZHUDLUYHQWZDVIRXQGIRU1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH
7KH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ GHVLJQ RI WKH ORZHU DLU YHQW VKRZHG D VWHHSHU LQFUHDVH RQ WKH
1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH VFDOH ZKHQ VKRZQ LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV
WKDQ WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW GHVLJQ ,Q JHQHUDO FRPELQDWLRQV ZLWK WKH


$UWLFOH,,,

WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW GHVLJQ UHVXOWHG LQ KLJKHU VFRUHV RQ WKLV ODWWHU VFDOH WKDQ
FRPELQDWLRQVZLWKWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQW7KHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWV
LQ FRPELQDWLRQ ZLWK WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW ZHUH SHUFHLYHG DV PRUH QHJDWLYH
WKDQWKHWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVLQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQW
*HQHUDOO\ WKH VLGH DLU YHQWV GLG QRW DSSHDU WR KDYH DQ\ VLJQLILFDQW LPSDFW RQ WKH
DIIHFWLYHSHUFHSWLRQV


3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\








1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH
/RZHUDLUYHQW

+HDGOLJKWV

)LJXUH
)DFWRUYDOXHVIRUHDFKRIWKHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWVLQWKHVWLPXOXVVHWIRU
ERWKIDFWRUV3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\DQG1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH$VLQGLFDWHGE\WKHGRWWHG
OLQHVFDUIURQWVZLWKVSHFLILFIHDWXUHVWKUHDWHQLQJYVQRQWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWV
WKUHDWHQLQJYVQRQWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQWVDUHJURXSHGLQVSHFLILFSDUWVRI
WKHIDFWRULDOVSDFH
7R YLVXDOL]H WKH UDWLQJV WKH FDU IURQWV UHFHLYHG D VHSDUDWH IDFWRU DQDO\VLV ZDV
FDOFXODWHG RQ WKH DYHUDJHG UDWLQJV RI WKH VWLPXOL $JJUHJDWLRQ ZDV FRQGXFWHG RYHU
SDUWLFLSDQWVIRUHDFKRIWKHVFDOHLWHPVWKHIDFWRUVROXWLRQREWDLQHGZDVLQDFFRUGDQFH


$UWLFOH,,,

ZLWK WKH VROXWLRQ IRXQG DERYH )DFWRU YDOXHV RQ ERWK H[WUDFWHG IDFWRUV 1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFHDQG3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\DUHGHSLFWHG)LJXUHIRUHDFKRIWKHFDUIURQWV
&RQFOXVLRQ
$V DVVHVVHG E\ HVWDEOLVKHG DIIHFWLYH VHPDQWLF VFDOHV WKH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV
XVHGLQWKHFXUUHQWVWXG\ZHUHSHUFHLYHGLQDZD\WKDWLVUHDVRQDEO\FRPSDUDEOHWRWKH
SHUFHSWLRQ RI DIIHFWLYH VFKHPDWLF IDFHV IURP SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK +RZHYHU RQH FOHDU
GLVWLQFWLRQ HPHUJHG :KLOH DIIHFWLYH VFKHPDWLF KXPDQ IDFHV DUH REYLRXVO\ SHUFHLYHG
RQWKUHHLQGHSHQGHQWGLPHQVLRQVWKHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFFDUIURQWVVHHPWREHHYDOXDWHG
RQO\ RQ WZR GLVWLQFW IDFWRUV $V ZLWK IDFHV RQH GLPHQVLRQ LV 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH
ZKHUHDV QR GLVWLQFWLRQ VHHPV WR EH PDGH EHWZHHQ 3RWHQF\ DQG $FWLYLW\ 7KLV VHHPV
LQWXLWLYHO\ SODXVLEOH VLQFH ZLWK FRPPRQ PLGVL]H FDUV WKLV GLVWLQFWLRQ XVXDOO\ GRHV
QRW H[LVW 0RUH DFWLYH VSRUW\ FDUV DUH XVXDOO\ HTXLSSHG ZLWK ELJJHU PRUH SRZHUIXO
HQJLQHV DQG WKHUHIRUH DSSHDU DOVR PRUH SRWHQW $V D FRQVHTXHQFH FRQMRLQLQJ WKHVH
WZRSHUFHSWLRQDOFDWHJRULHVWRDVLQJOHGLPHQVLRQ3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\VHHPVUHDVRQDEOH
EXW WKLV ILQGLQJ DOVR LOOXVWUDWHV WKDW WKH SHUFHSWLRQDO HIIHFWV RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF
SURGXFWGHVLJQPD\PRYHEHWZHHQSURGXFWVSHFLILFERXQGDULHV
&DUIURQWFRQILJXUDWLRQVZLWKWKHWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQVFRUHGKLJKRQWKH
1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH GLPHQVLRQ ZLWK WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW FRPELQDWLRQV VFRULQJ
KLJKHVW 3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\ ZDV RQO\ LQIOXHQFHG E\ WKH KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ DQG WKH
WKUHDWHQLQJGHVLJQDFFRXQWHGIRUWKHKLJKHVWUDWLQJV7KHGHVLJQIRXQGWREHSUHIHUUHG
E\:HVWHUQSDUWLFLSDQWVLQSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFK/DQGZHKUHWDOWKHFRPELQDWLRQ
RIWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVGHVLJQDQGWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQWREWDLQHGIDFWRU
YDOXHVLQWKHPHGLXPUDQJHRQWKH1HJDWLYH9DOHQFHVFDOHDQGPHGLXPWRKLJKYDOXHV
RQWKH3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\VFDOH)LQDOO\WKHVLGHDLUYHQWGHVLJQGLGQRWSURYHWREHRI
KXJHLPSRUWDQFHIRUWKHLQYHVWLJDWHGFRQFHSWVDQGLVWKHUHIRUHQRWLQFOXGHGLQ6WXG\


6WXG\
6WXG\  DGGUHVVHV ZKHWKHU WKH LGHQWLILHG SHUFHSWLRQDO GLPHQVLRQV 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH
DQG 3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\ FDQ EH UHSOLFDWHG DFURVV SDUWLFLSDQW VDPSOHV IURP (DVWHUQ
&KLQDDQG:HVWHUQ*HUPDQ\8QLWHG6WDWHVFRXQWULHV7KLVWDFNOHVWKHTXHVWLRQRI
FRQILJXUDO LQYDULDQFH 0LOIRQW  )LVFKHU  )XUWKHUPRUH WKH HIIHFWV RI WKH


$UWLFOH,,,

IHDWXUHV DQG SHUFHSWLRQDO GLPHQVLRQV RQ SDUWLFLSDQWV OLNLQJ IRU WKH WHVWHG FDU IURQWV
DUH LQYHVWLJDWHG E\ PHGLDWLRQ DQDO\VLV IRU HDFK RI WKH VDPSOHV ZLWK WKH H[SHFWDWLRQ
WKDW VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ (DVWHUQ DQG :HVWHUQ VDPSOHV ZLOO RFFXU GXH WR
GLIIHUHQWFXOWXUHVRIHPRWLRQDOH[SUHVVLRQDQGH[SRVXUH
([SHULPHQWDOSURFHGXUH
5HO\LQJRQDEHWZHHQVXEMHFWVGHVLJQSDUWLFLSDQWVIURPWKUHHFRXQWULHVZHUHDVNHGWR
UDWH RQH UDQGRPO\ VHOHFWHG DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQW 7KH UDWLQJ SURFHGXUH ZDV
ODUJHO\VLPLODUWR6WXG\DQGWKHVFDOHLWHPVKDGEHHQSUHYLRXVO\WUDQVIHUUHGLQWRWKH
SDUWLFLSDQWVILUVWODQJXDJHVYLDGRXEOHEDFNWUDQVODWLRQ3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDOVRDVNHG
WRLQGLFDWHWKHLUOLNLQJRIWKHFDUIURQWRQDSRLQWVFDOH,OLNHWKHGHVLJQ,GRQRW
OLNHWKHGHVLJQLQYHUWHGLWHP
6WLPXOL
7KHVWLPXOXVPDWHULDOLQ6WXG\ZDVODUJHO\LGHQWLFDOWR6WXG\H[FHSWWKDWWKHVLGH
DLU YHQWV ZHUH QRW LQFOXGHG LQ WKH FDU IURQW GHVLJQV 7KH SUHYLRXV LQYHVWLJDWLRQ KDV
LGHQWLILHG WKH VLGH DLU YHQW WR EH RQO\ RI GLPLQLVKHG LPSRUWDQFH IRU WKH HPRWLRQDO
SHUFHSWLRQ
3DUWLFLSDQWV
,Q6WXG\XQLYHUVLW\VWXGHQWVDPSOHVIURP&KLQD1 0$JH \HDUV6'$JH
*HUPDQ\1 0$JH \HDUV6'$JH DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV1
 0$JH  \HDUV6'$JH ZHUHFROOHFWHGYLDD PDUNHWLQJDJHQF\RUDW
FDPSXV IRU SDUWLDO FRXUVH FUHGLW 6DPSOHV FRQVLVWHG URXJKO\ HTXDOO\ RI IHPDOHV DQG
PDOHV
$QDO\VLVDQGUHVXOWV
,QDQDORJXHIDVKLRQWR6WXG\VHSDUDWHSULQFLSDOFRPSRQHQWDQDO\VHVZHUHSHUIRUPHG
WRGHWHUPLQHWKHXQGHUO\LQJIDFWRUVWUXFWXUHIRUHDFKRIWKHFRXQWU\VDPSOHV0XOWLSOH
ORDGLQJV!RQPRUHWKDQRQHIDFWRUDQGHYLGHQWWUDQVODWLRQLVVXHVOHGWRLWHUDWLYH
HOLPLQDWLRQ RI WKUHH VFDOH LWHPV $V D UHVXOW WKH GXDO IDFWRU VWUXFWXUH FRXOG EH
UHSOLFDWHGDFURVVVDPSOHVIURP&KLQD*HUPDQ\DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV7DEOH


$UWLFOH,,,

7DEOH
)DFWRUORDGLQJVRIWKHVHPDQWLFVFDOHLWHPVIRU6WXG\DQG6WXG\
$GMHFWLYHSDLUV

6HPDQWLFIDFHV/XQGTYLVWHWDO

/RZ

3RWHQF\

$FWLYLW\

)DFWRU
3RWHQF\
$FWLYLW\

8QIULHQGO\

)ULHQGO\





















%DG

*RRG























&UXHO

.LQG























8QSOHDVDQW 3OHDVDQW























7RXJK

)UDJLOH











+HDY\

/LJKW























/DUJH

6PDOO























6WURQJ

:HDN











([FLWDEOH

&DOP























(QHUJHWLF

,QHUW











$FWLYH

3DVVLYH













































RIYDULDWLRQ

)DFWRU

^

)DFWRU
1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFH

+LJK

)DFWRU


h^^
'^

86$6WXG\
)DFWRU
1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFH

)DFWRU
1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFH

)DFWRU
3RWHQF\
$FWLYLW\

)DFWRU
1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFH

)DFWRU
3RWHQF\
$FWLYLW\

)DFWRU
1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFH

)DFWRU
3RWHQF\
$FWLYLW\




1H[W FRPSRVLWH VFRUHV RQ WKH LGHQWLILHG GLPHQVLRQV ZHUH REWDLQHG IRU HDFK RI WKH
HYDOXDWHGFDUIURQWVE\FDOFXODWLQJWKHPHDQVRIWKHSDUWLFXODULWHPV)LJXUHGLVSOD\V
WKHVH PHDQV VHSDUDWHO\ IRU WKH WKUHH VDPSOHV $OWKRXJK OHYHO GLIIHUHQFHV DUH HYLGHQW
EHWZHHQWKHGLIIHUHQWFRXQWULHVDJHQHUDOSDWWHUQFDQEHREVHUYHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKH
UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQWKHFDUIURQWVGHVLJQIHDWXUHVDQGWKHREWDLQHGDIIHFWLYHUDWLQJV

1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH





&KLQD
*HUPDQ\
86$





3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\



)LJXUH
0HDQIDFWRUVFRUHVRQWKHDIIHFWLYHVFDOHV3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\DQG1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH
IRUWKH6WXG\FDUIURQWVVHSDUDWHGIRUWKHGLIIHUHQWFRXQWU\VDPSOHV



$UWLFOH,,,

/LNLQJUDWLQJVIRUHDFKRIWKHFDUIURQWVDUHGLVSOD\HGVHSDUDWHO\LQ)LJXUH)URPWKH
JUDSKLFGLVSOD\DVZHOODV$129$V ZLWKSODQQHGFRQWUDVWVLWEHFRPHVHYLGHQWWKDW
WKH:HVWHUQVDPSOHVFOHDUO\SUHIHUGHVLJQYDULDQWVZLWKWKHWKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVSV
  ZLWK WKH $PHULFDQ VDPSOH H[KLELWLQJ WKH VOLJKW WHQGHQF\ WR IDYRU WKH QRQ
WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW YHUVLRQ 7KLV LV QRW WKH FDVH IRU SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP &KLQD
ZKHUH IRU H[DPSOH QR VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU
YHQW YHUVLRQV ZLWK WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV FDQ EH REVHUYHG S 


&KLQD
*HUPDQ\

86$

/LNLQJUDWLQJV

HDPD

HDPK

HKPD

HKPK

)LJXUH
0HDQOLNLQJVFRUHVDQGVWDQGDUGGHYLDWLRQVIRUWKH6WXG\FDUIURQWVVHSDUDWHG
IRUWKHGLIIHUHQWFRXQWU\VDPSOHV
7R IXUWKHU LQYHVWLJDWH WKH RXWOLQHG SDWWHUQ VHSDUDWH PHGLDWLRQ DQDO\VHV ZHUH
SHUIRUPHGIRUHDFKRIWKHVDPSOHVFI3UHDFKHU +D\HV7KHGHVLJQIHDWXUHV
KHDGOLJKWV DQG ORZHU DLU YHQWV ERWK H[LVWLQJ LQ D WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG D QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ
YDULDQW ZHUH LQFOXGHG DV SUHGLFWRUV WKH DIIHFWLYH VFDOH VFRUHV 3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\ DQG
1HJDWLYH9DOHQFHDVSRVVLEOHPHGLDWRUVDQGWKHOLNLQJUDWLQJDVDGHSHQGHQWYDULDEOH
)LJXUH



$UWLFOH,,,


)LJXUH
0HGLDWLRQSDWKZD\VIRUWKHPHGLDWLRQDQDO\VLVLQ6WXG\
)RU WKH WRWDO SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH OLNLQJ UDWLQJV HIIHFWV IRU WKH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF GHVLJQ
IHDWXUHVGLIIHUHGKLJKO\EHWZHHQWKHFRXQWU\VDPSOHV:KLOHLQERWKWKH*HUPDQDQG
WKH $PHULFDQ VDPSOH VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFWV FRXOG EH IRXQG IRU WKHWKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW
GHVLJQZLWKF*HUPDQ\ SDQGF86$ SQRVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWV
FRXOGEHIRXQGIRUWKHORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQZLWKSV!)RUWKH&KLQHVHVDPSOH
RQO\DVLJQLILFDQWWRWDOHIIHFWIRUWKHWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQZDVREVHUYHG
F&KLQD   S   ZKLOH WKH HIIHFW IRU WKH KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ GLG QRW UHDFK
VLJQLILFDQFHZLWKS 7KHVHGLIIHUHQFHVDUHLOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHOLNLQJUDWLQJVIRUWKH
HYDOXDWHG DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV DV GLVSOD\HG LQ )LJXUH  7KH UDWLQJV LQGLFDWH
WKDWWKHFRUHGULYHUIRUKLJKHUOLNLQJUDWLQJVLQWKH :HVWHUQVDPSOHVZDVIRXQGWREH
WKH KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ ZKHUHDV WKH ORZHU DLU YHQW GHVLJQ ZDV SUHGRPLQDQW LQ WKH
&KLQHVH VDPSOH +RZHYHU D ORRN RQ WKH PHGLDWLRQ SDWKZD\V RI WKH DQDO\VHV UHYHDOV
VWURQJ FRQFHSWXDO SDUDOOHOV EHWZHHQ WKH GLIIHUHQW FRXQWU\ VDPSOHV 7DEOH  7KH
FRHIILFLHQWV IRU WKH GLUHFW HIIHFWV VXJJHVW WKDW WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ H[HUWV
SRVLWLYHHIIHFWVRQWKH3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\UDWLQJ7KHWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQWRQWKH
FRQWUDU\ LQFUHDVHV WKH 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH SHUFHSWLRQ FRQVLVWHQWO\ DFURVV DOO FRXQWULHV
3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\ LQ WXUQ KDV D SRVLWLYH HIIHFW RQ WKH OLNLQJ UDWLQJ ZKLOH SHUFHLYHG
1HJDWLYH9DOHQFHGHFUHDVHVWKHOLNLQJUDWLQJ+RZHYHUWKHDQDO\VLVLQ7DEOHIXUWKHU
VKRZV WKDW WKH GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV WHQG WR LQIOXHQFH WKH UHVSHFWLYH RWKHU SHUFHSWLRQDO
GLPHQVLRQ DW OHDVW LQ VRPH RI WKH VDPSOHV LQYHVWLJDWHG ,Q WKH &KLQHVH DQG 86
VDPSOHVWKHWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQQHJDWLYHO\DIIHFWVWKH3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\


$UWLFOH,,,

UDWLQJ DQG LQ WKH &KLQHVH DQG WKH *HUPDQ VDPSOH WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ
LQFUHDVHV WKH 1HJDWLYH 9DOHQFH SHUFHSWLRQ )LQDOO\ GLUHFW SRVLWLYH HIIHFWV IRU WKH
WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ RQ WKH OLNLQJ UDWLQJ DUH IRXQG IRU HDFK RI WKH VDPSOHV
6XUSULVLQJO\ D SRVLWLYH HIIHFW RI WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW GHVLJQ RQ OLNLQJ ZDV
DOVRREVHUYHGEXWWKLVZDVRQO\WKHFDVHZLWKWKH*HUPDQVDPSOH
7DEOH
&RHIILFLHQWVIURPWKHPHGLDWLRQDQDO\VHVLQVWXG\
^
 /

'

h^








3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\

1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH


,

D

>

D

















,
>

>

D
D


3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\

E

1HJDWLYH9DOHQFH

E

,

F




>

F






d
>


,

F



>

F





S S S



&RQFOXVLRQ
7KH SULQFLSDO FRPSRQHQW DQDO\VHV LQ 6WXG\  FRXOG FOHDUO\ FRQILUP WKH FRQILJXUDO
LQYDULDQFH RI WKH SHUFHSWLRQDO GLPHQVLRQV LGHQWLILHG LQ 6WXG\  $OO SDUWLFLSDQW
VDPSOHVIURP&KLQD*HUPDQ\DQG8QLWHG6WDWHVUDWHGWKHDIIHFWLYHDQWKURSRPRUSKLF
FDUIURQWVRQWZRGLVWLQFWPHDVXUHVQDPHO\1HJDWLYH9DOHQFHDQG3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\
+RZHYHUFOHDUGLIIHUHQFHVFRQFHUQLQJWKHUDQNRUGHURIWKHGLIIHUHQWFDUIURQWGHVLJQV
HPHUJHGZKHQLQVSHFWLQJWKHUHSRUWHGOLNLQJUDWLQJV:KLOHSDUWLFLSDQWVIURPWKHWZR
:HVWHUQ FRXQWULHV FOHDUO\ VKRZHG SUHIHUHQFH IRU WKH GHVLJQ YDULDQW FRQWDLQLQJ WKH
WKUHDWHQLQJKHDGOLJKWVWRJHWKHUZLWKDWHQGHQF\IRUWKHQRQWKUHDWHQLQJORZHUDLUYHQW


$UWLFOH,,,

ZKLFKLVE\DQGODUJHFRQVLVWHQWZLWKWKHOLWHUDWXUH/DQGZHKUHWDOWKLVZDV

QRWWKHFDVHIRUSDUWLFLSDQWVIURP&KLQD
7R IXUWKHU DVVHVV WKLV LVVXH ZH FDOFXODWHG VHSDUDWH PHGLDWLRQ PRGHOV FDSWXULQJ WKH
VWUXFWXUHIRUWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIOLNLQJUDWLQJVIURPWKHSHUFHSWLRQDOGLPHQVLRQV1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFHDQG3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\IRUHDFKRIWKHVDPSOHV+HUHDJDLQSDUWLFXODUO\ZKHQ
UHJDUGLQJ WKH RYHUDOO HIIHFWV FOHDU GLIIHUHQFHV ZHUH REVHUYHG PDLQO\ EHWZHHQ WKH
:HVWHUQSDUWLFLSDQWVDQGWKHSDUWLFLSDQWJURXSIURP&KLQD7KHPRGHOVIRUWKHOLNLQJ
UDWLQJLQERWKWKH*HUPDQDVZHOODVWKH$PHULFDQVDPSOHVRQO\FRQWDLQHGVLJQLILFDQW
WRWDO HIIHFWV IRU WKH KHDGOLJKW FRHIILFLHQWV WKXV LGHQWLI\LQJ WKH KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ DV D
FRUH GULYHU RI WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV OLNLQJ RI WKH FDU IURQW GHVLJQ ,Q WKH &KLQHVH VDPSOH
RQO\WKHFRHIILFLHQWIRUWKHORZHUDLUYHQWGHVLJQZDVVLJQLILFDQW
2YHUDOO WKHVH ILQGLQJV VXJJHVW WKDW ZKLOH FRQILJXUDO LQYDULDQFH DFURVV WKH GLIIHUHQW
FRXQWU\ VDPSOHV H[LVWV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH SHUFHSWXDO GLPHQVLRQV RI DQWKURSRPRUSKLF
DIIHFWLYH FDU IURQWV VWUXFWXUDO GLIIHUHQFHV FRQFHUQLQJ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI WKH OLNLQJ
UDWLQJV IURP WKHVH GLPHQVLRQV PXVW EH H[SHFWHG 7KHVH GLIIHUHQFHV DSSHDU WR EH
SDUWLFXODUO\VWURQJEHWZHHQWKHVDPSOHVIURP(DVWHUQDQG:HVWHUQFXOWXUHVJHQHUDOO\
VXSSRUWLQJ WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW FXOWXUDOO\ DQFKRUHG GLIIHUHQFHV LQ HPRWLRQ H[SUHVVLRQ
DQGSHUFHSWLRQDOVRLQIOXHQFHWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQV

'LVFXVVLRQ
7KHRUHWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQV
:LWK WZR HPSLULFDO VWXGLHV IHDWXULQJ VDPSOHV IURP &KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG
6WDWHV WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN LQYHVWLJDWHV KRZ SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP GLIIHUHQW FXOWXUDO
EDFNJURXQGV SHUFHLYH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQW GHVLJQV GLVSOD\LQJ WKUHDWHQLQJ DQG
QRQWKUHDWHQLQJ DIIHFW 7KH DLP RI WKH ZRUN ZDV WR LGHQWLI\ WKH XQGHUO\LQJ
GLPHQVLRQDO VWUXFWXUH RI SDUWLFLSDQWV DIIHFWLYH HYDOXDWLRQV WRZDUGV DQWKURSRPRUSKLF
FDU IURQWV DFURVV WKH GLIIHUHQW VDPSOHV ,Q DGGLWLRQ HIIHFWV RQ SDUWLFLSDQWV OLNLQJ
UDWLQJV ZHUH HYDOXDWHG E\ PHGLDWLRQ DQDO\VLV 7KH WKHRUHWLFDO UDWLRQDOH RI WKH ZRUN
LQYROYHG OLWHUDWXUH IURP DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFW GHVLJQ DQG WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI
VFKHPDWLF IDFHV DV ZHOO DV ILQGLQJV RQ FURVVFXOWXUDO GLIIHUHQFHV UHJDUGLQJ IDFLDO
DIIHFWGHFRGLQJ



$UWLFOH,,,

5HJDUGOHVV RI WKHLU FXOWXUDO EDFNJURXQGV SDUWLFLSDQWV MXGJHG DIIHFWLYH

DQWKURSRPRUSKLF FDU IURQWV XQOLNH ZKDW KDV EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ UHSRUWHG LQ KXPDQ
VFKHPDWLFIDFHUHVHDUFKRQRQO\WZRDIIHFWLYHGLPHQVLRQV1HJDWLYH9DOHQFHDQGD
MRLQW GLPHQVLRQ 3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\ 7KH ODWWHU LV QRW HQWLUHO\ VXUSULVLQJ DV DW OHDVW IRU
PLGVL]H SDVVHQJHU FDUV ODUJHU YHKLFOHV LQ SUDFWLFH RIWHQ FRPH ZLWK HYHQ ELJJHU
HQJLQHVWKXVDOLJQLQJDVSHFWVOLNHFDUVL]HHQJLQHSRZHUDQGUDFHDJLOLW\RQWKHVDPH
GLPHQVLRQ WKH MRLQW GLPHQVLRQ WKHUHIRUH MXVW UHSUHVHQWV ZKDW SDUWLFLSDQWV OHDUQHG
DERXWFDUV
:LWK UHJDUG WR WKH DIIHFWLYH IHDWXUH GHVLJQ VWURQJ VLPLODULWLHV DFURVV FRXQWULHV ZHUH
DOVRREVHUYHG%\DQGODUJHDJJUHVVLYHKHDGOLJKWVSRVLWLYHO\DIIHFWHGWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
RYHUDOO OLNLQJ RI WKH FDU E\ LQFUHDVLQJ WKH GLPHQVLRQ 3RWHQF\$FWLYLW\ ZKLOH WKH
WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW KDG D QHJDWLYH LPSDFW RQ OLNLQJ E\ ORZHULQJ WKH 1HJDWLYH
9DOHQFH SHUFHSWLRQ 7KLV UHVXOW LV LQ OLQH ZLWK HDUOLHU ILQGLQJV VWDWLQJ WKDW WKH
FRPELQDWLRQ RI WKUHDWHQLQJ KHDGOLJKWV DQG D KDSS\ JULOOH LQ UHDO FDUV LV SUHIHUUHG E\
FXVWRPHUV RYHU DOO RWKHU GHVLJQ IHDWXUH FRPELQDWLRQV IRU DIIHFWLYH DQWKURSRPRUSKLF
FDUIURQWV/DQGZHKUHWDO
+RZHYHU ZKHQ ORRNLQJ DW WKH RYHUDOO HIIHFWV RI WKH DIIHFWLYH GHVLJQ IHDWXUHV RQ WKH
OLNLQJ UDWLQJV GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH &KLQHVH VDPSOH DQG WKH :HVWHUQ VDPSOHV
EHFDPH HYLGHQW &OHDUO\ &KLQHVH SDUWLFLSDQWV ORZHUHG WKHLU OLNLQJ UDWLQJV LQ WKH
SUHVHQFH RI WKH WKUHDWHQLQJ ORZHU DLU YHQW GHVLJQ ZKLOH WKH KHDGOLJKW GHVLJQ GLG QRW
VHHPWRSOD\DUROH)RUWKH:HVWHUQVDPSOHVLWZDVWKHRWKHUZD\URXQG7KLVFDQEH
VHHQLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHFXOWXUHRIHPRWLRQDOVXEGXFWLRQLQPDQ\$VLDQFRXQWULHV
ZKLFK GLVDSSURYHV RI WKH RSHQ H[SUHVVLRQ RI QHJDWLYH DIIHFW SDUWLFXODUO\ ZLWK WKH
PRXWK,QDGGLWLRQWKLVILQGLQJPD\LQGLFDWHIXQGDPHQWDOGLIIHUHQFHVLQWKHSHUFHSWLRQ
DQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHH\HUHJLRQ7KHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKWKHUHIRUHQRWRQO\FRQWULEXWHV
WR WKH HPHUJLQJ ILHOG RI GHVLJQ UHVHDUFK LQ PDUNHWLQJ E\ LQWURGXFLQJ D FURVVFXOWXUDO
SHUVSHFWLYHDQGUDLVLQJWKHDZDUHQHVVIRUWKH H[LVWHQFH RIFXOWXUHVSHFLILFSUHIHUHQFH
GHYLDQFHVEXWDOVRSUHVHQWVDILUVWJHQHUDODSSURDFKIRUH[SODLQLQJWKHVHGLIIHUHQFHVLQ
WKHSDUWLFXODUFDVHRIDIIHFWLYHDQWKURSRPRUSKLFSURGXFWGHVLJQV

3UDFWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQV
)URP D SUDFWLFDO SRLQW RI YLHZ WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK VKRXOG HQFRXUDJH PDUNHWHUV DQG
GHVLJQHUV ZRUNLQJ IRU :HVWHUQ SUHPLXP EUDQGV WR H[WHQG WKHLU HIIRUWV LQ


$UWLFOH,,,

XQGHUVWDQGLQJWKH&KLQHVHRU$VLDQFXVWRPHU7KHVWXGLHVZLWKDQWKURSRPRUSKLFDOO\

GHVLJQHG FDU IURQWV FRXOG LOOXVWUDWH WKDW EHVLGHV WKH JHQHUDO SHUFHSWLRQDO VLPLODULWLHV
EHWZHHQWKHVDPSOHVIURPGLIIHUHQWFXOWXUDOEDFNJURXQGVVWURQJGLIIHUHQFHVHPHUJHG
IRUWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIWKHVSHFLILFGHVLJQSUHIHUHQFH
,QSDUWLFXODU&KLQHVHSDUWLFLSDQWVGLVSOD\HGOLNLQJIRUDGHVLJQYDULDQWWKDWZDVUDWHG
FOHDUO\ LQIHULRU LQ WKH:HVWHUQ VDPSOHV :KLOH WKLV GLIIHUHQFHZDVH[SHFWHG IURP WKH
WKHRUHWLFDODFFRXQWLWKDVWREHDGPLWWHGWKDWIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKLVQHHGHGWRVKHGOLJKW
RQ WKH UHDVRQV IRU WKH REVHUYHG GLIIHUHQFHV DQG WR GUDZ UHVLOLHQW FRQFOXVLRQV IRU
SUDFWLFDODSSOLFDWLRQVLQSURGXFWGHVLJQ+RZHYHUHYHQDWWKLVSRLQWLWFDQEHVWDWHG
ZLWK VRPH FRQILGHQFH WKDW SDUWLFXODUO\ DQWKURSRPRUSKLF SURGXFWGHVLJQV WKDW FRQWDLQ
WKH H[SUHVVLRQ RI DIIHFW DUH OLNHO\ WR HOLFLW QRWDEO\ GLIIHUHQW UHDFWLRQV LQ FXVWRPHUV
IURPWKH(DVWDQGWKH:HVW
$LPLQJ PRUH VSHFLILFDOO\ WRZDUGV WKH GHVLJQ RI FDUV WKLV PLJKW LPSO\ IDUUHDFKLQJ
FRQVHTXHQFHV:LWKRXWGRXEWDFXUUHQWFKDOOHQJHIRUDXWRPRELOHPDQXIDFWXUHUVLVWKH
FUHDWLRQDQGDQWLFLSDWLRQRIFDUGHVLJQVWKDW DUHDSSHDOLQJWRFXVWRPHUVIURPYDULRXV
FXOWXUDO UHJLRQV :LWK UHVSHFW WR FDU IURQWV SHUVRQDO GLVFXVVLRQV ZLWK GHVLJQHUV DQG
H[SHUWV IURP :HVWHUQ DXWRPRELOH PDQXIDFWXUHUV KDYH FRQILUPHG WKH WHQGHQF\ LQ FDU
IURQWGHVLJQWRPRYHWRZDUGVPRUHDJJUHVVLYHDQGPRUHSRZHUIXOVSRUWLYHGHVLJQVDW
OHDVW IRU PHGLXP WR SUHPLXP PRGHOV %HVLGHV JULOOH DQG ORZHU DLU YHQW VKDSHV WKH
GHVLJQ RI KHDGOLJKWV VSHFLILFDOO\ KDV EHHQ FHQWUDO WR GHVLJQ HIIRUWV :KLOH RQH FRXOG
FRQILUP LQ RXU VWXG\ D FHUWDLQ SUHIHUHQFH RI :HVWHUQ FXVWRPHUV IRU WKUHDWHQLQJ
KHDGOLJKWGHVLJQV RQH VKRXOGTXHVWLRQDVLPLODUSUHIHUHQFHIRU&KLQHVHFXVWRPHUVLQ
WKHOLJKWRIRXUILQGLQJV
7DNLQJWKHSHUVSHFWLYHRIGHVLJQH[HFXWLYHVWKHRSHQLQJRI&KLQHVHEUDQFKRIILFHVIRU
SURGXFW GHVLJQ LV VXUHO\ D VWHS LQ WKH ULJKW GLUHFWLRQ 7KH ZRUN ZLWK ORFDO GHVLJQHUV
ZLOO KHOS WR XQGHUVWDQG FXOWXUHVSHFLILF SUHIHUHQFHV DQG FUHDWH SURGXFW DSSHDUDQFHV
WKDW PHHW WKH ORFDO WDVWH +RZHYHU ZKLOH DQ LQWXLWLYH GHVLJQHUV DSSURDFK FDQ
XQGRXEWHGO\KHOSPDQXIDFWXUHUVLQDSUDJPDWLFZD\WRFUHDWHGHVLJQSURGXFWVRIJOREDO
DSSHDO WKHUH LV FOHDUO\ WKH QHFHVVLW\ IRU D V\VWHPDWLF H[SORUDWLRQ RI XQGHUO\LQJ
SV\FKRORJLFDOPHFKDQLVPVLQWKHKXQWIRUWKHXQLYHUVDOGHVLJQ



$UWLFOH,,,

/LPLWDWLRQVDQGIXWXUHUHVHDUFK
)XWXUH UHVHDUFK LV QHHGHG WR H[WHQG WKH NQRZOHGJH EDVH UHJDUGLQJ FRQVXPHUV
UHDFWLRQV WRZDUGV SURGXFW GHVLJQ )XUWKHUPRUH XSFRPLQJ UHVHDUFK HQGHDYRUV VKRXOG
UHDGLO\HPEUDFHDFURVVFXOWXUDOSHUVSHFWLYHDVWKLVLVDQLVVXHRISUDFWLFDOPDWWHUIRU
WKHVXFFHVVRIJOREDOEUDQGV7RWKHEHVWRIWKHDXWKRUVNQRZOHGJHH[LVWLQJUHVHDUFK
RQ GHVLJQ SHUFHSWLRQ LQ PDUNHWLQJ KDV QRW DGGUHVVHG WKLV WRSLF WKXV IDU 7KH FXUUHQW
ZRUN FDQ EH VHHQ DV D ILUVW DWWHPSW WR LPSOHPHQW WKLV SRLQW RI YLHZ DQG EHVLGHV
SURPLVLQJILUVWUHVXOWVWKHUHLVDQHHGIRUIXUWKHUUHVHDUFKLQWKLVDUHD
)RU LQVWDQFH WKH FXUUHQW ZRUN IRFXVHG RQ DVVHVVLQJ WKH JHQHUDO VWUXFWXUH RI
SHUFHSWLRQDOGLPHQVLRQVDVZHOODVWKHSUHGLFWLRQRIOLNLQJUDWLQJVIURPWKHVHPHDVXUHV
IRU HDFK RI WKH VDPSOHV IURP &KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV :KLOH WKLV
DSSURDFK JHQHUDOO\ DLPV WRZDUGV WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI FRQILJXUDO LQYDULDQFH DQG
WKHUHIRUH WKH FRPSDULVRQ RI JOREDO VWUXFWXUHV FURVVFXOWXUDO UHVHDUFK IURP UHODWHG
ILHOGV RIWHQ VHHNV WR GLUHFWO\ FRPSDUH PHDVXUHPHQWV DQG YDOXH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ
VDPSOH JURXSV 0LOIRQW  )LVFKHU  'RLQJ VR KRZHYHU ZRXOG UHTXLUH WKH
HVWDEOLVKPHQW RI IXOO PHDVXUHPHQW LQYDULDQFH HJ PHWULF RU VFDODU HTXLYDOHQFH
ZKLFKKDVQRWEHHQFRQGXFWHGLQWKHSUHVHQWZRUN)XWXUHUHVHDUFKVKRXOGDLPIRUWKH
GHYHORSPHQWRIXQLYHUVDOSHUFHSWLRQDOVFDOHVWKDWFDQEHDSSOLHGLQGHVLJQUHVHDUFKIRU
DPRUHGHWDLOHGDVVHVVPHQWRIFURVVFXOWXUDOVLPLODULWLHVDQGGLIIHUHQFHV
0RUHRYHUWKHVWXG\IRFXVHVRQWKHSHUFHSWLRQRIDQWKURSRPRUSKLFDIIHFWLYHFDUIURQWV
SURYLGLQJILUVWLQVLJKWVLQWRSUHIHUHQFHGLIIHUHQFHVIRUFRQILJXUDWLRQDOIDFHOLNHVWLPXOL
,Q SDUW DQ H[SODQDWLRQ ZDV SURYLGHG LQYROYLQJ WKH VXEGXFWLRQ RI HPRWLRQDO
H[SUHVVLRQV LQ $VLD )XWXUH UHVHDUFK ZLOO KDYH WR LQYHVWLJDWH DOWHUQDWLYH H[SODQDWLRQV
WKDWZRXOGLQFOXGHWKHFXOWXUDOKDELWXDWLRQZLWKFHUWDLQIRUPVRIVFKHPDWLFH[SUHVVLRQ
DQG VKRZ WKH LQYDULDELOLW\ RI WKHVH ILUVW UHVXOWV DFURVV D EURDGHU UDQJH RI SRVVLEOH
VWLPXOXVLPSOHPHQWDWLRQV




$UWLFOH,,,

5HIHUHQFHV
$JJDUZDO3 0F*LOO$/,V7KDW&DU6PLOLQJDW0H"6FKHPD&RQJUXLW\
DV D %DVLV IRU (YDOXDWLQJ $QWKURSRPRUSKL]HG 3URGXFWV -RXUQDO RI &RQVXPHU
5HVHDUFK
$URQRII - %DUFOD\ $ 0  6WHYHQVRQ / $  7KH 5HFRJQLWLRQ RI
7KUHDWHQLQJ )DFLDO 6WLPXOL -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO 3V\FKRORJ\

$URQRII-:RLNH%$ +\PDQ/0:KLFK$UHWKH6WLPXOLLQ)DFLDO
'LVSOD\V RI $QJHU DQG +DSSLQHVV" &RQILJXUDWLRQDO %DVHV RI (PRWLRQ
5HFRJQLWLRQ-RXUQDORI3HUVRQDOLW\DQG6RFLDO3V\FKRORJ\
%ORFK3+6HHNLQJWKH,GHDO)RUP3URGXFW'HVLJQDQG&RQVXPHU5HVSRQVH
-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ
&KLQD $XGL 0HUFHGHV 2SHQ %HLMLQJ 'HVLJQ 6WXGLRV  -XO\ 
$XWRPRWLYH:RUOGFRP
5HWULHYHG
1RYHPEHU


IURP
KWWSZZZDXWRPRWLYHZRUOGFRPQHZVHPHUJLQJPDUNHWVFKLQDDXGL
PHUFHGHVRSHQVEHLMLQJGHVLJQVWXGLRV
(NPDQ3)DFLDO([SUHVVLRQDQG(PRWLRQ$PHULFDQ3V\FKRORJLVW

(OIHQEHLQ+$ $PEDG\12QWKH8QLYHUVDOLW\DQG&XOWXUDO6SHFLILFLW\
RI (PRWLRQ 5HFRJQLWLRQ $ 0HWD$QDO\VLV 3V\FKRORJLFDO %XOOHWLQ 

+RUVWPDQQ *  9LVXDO 6HDUFK IRU 6FKHPDWLF $IIHFWLYH )DFHV 6WDELOLW\ DQG
9DULDELOLW\ RI 6HDUFK 6ORSHV ZLWK 'LIIHUHQW ,QVWDQFHV &RJQLWLRQ  (PRWLRQ

/DQGZHKU-50F*LOO$/ +HUUPDQQ$,WV*RWWKH/RRN7KH(IIHFW
RI)ULHQGO\DQG$JJUHVVLYH)DFLDO([SUHVVLRQVRQ3URGXFW/LNLQJDQG6DOHV
-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ



$UWLFOH,,,

/XQGTYLVW'(VWHYHV) gKPDQ$7KH)DFHRI:UDWK&ULWLFDO)HDWXUHV

IRU&RQYH\LQJ)DFLDO7KUHDW&RJQLWLRQ (PRWLRQ
/XQGTYLVW ' (VWHYHV )  gKPDQ $  7KH )DFH RI :UDWK 7KH 5ROH RI
)HDWXUHVDQG&RQILJXUDWLRQVLQ&RQYH\LQJ6RFLDO7KUHDW&RJQLWLRQ (PRWLRQ

0LHVOHU / /DQGZHKU - 5 +HUUPDQQ $  0F*LOO $ /  &RQVXPHU DQG
3URGXFW )DFHWR)DFH $QWHFHGHQWV DQG &RQVHTXHQFHV RI 6SRQWDQHRXV )DFH
6FKHPD$FWLYDWLRQ$GYDQFHVLQ&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
0LOIRQW7/ )LVFKHU57HVWLQJ0HDVXUHPHQW,QYDULDQFH$FURVV*URXSV
$SSOLFDWLRQV LQ &URVV&XOWXUDO 5HVHDUFK ,QWHUQDWLRQDO -RXUQDO RI
3V\FKRORJLFDO5HVHDUFK
gKPDQ$/XQGTYLVW' (VWHYHV)7KH)DFHLQWKH&URZG5HYLVLWHG$
7KUHDW $GYDQWDJH ZLWK 6FKHPDWLF 6WLPXOL -RXUQDO RI 3HUVRQDOLW\ DQG 6RFLDO
3V\FKRORJ\
2VJRRG & (  'LPHQVLRQDOLW\ RI 6HPDQWLF 6SDFH IRU &RPPXQLFDWLRQ YLD
)DFLDO([SUHVVLRQV6FDQGLQDYLDQ-RXUQDORI3V\FKRORJ\
3UHDFKHU . -  +D\HV $ )  $V\PSWRWLF DQG 5HVDPSOLQJ 6WUDWHJLHV IRU
$VVHVVLQJ DQG &RPSDULQJ ,QGLUHFW (IIHFWV LQ 0XOWLSOH 0HGLDWRU 0RGHOV
%HKDYLRU5HVHDUFK0HWKRGV
6FKORVEHUJ +  7KUHH 'LPHQVLRQV RI (PRWLRQ 3V\FKRORJLFDO 5HYLHZ 

:LQGKDJHU 6 6OLFH ' ( 6FKDHIHU . 2EHU]DXFKHU ( 7KRUVWHQVHQ 7 
*UDPPHU .  )DFH WR )DFH 7KH 3HUFHSWLRQ RI $XWRPRWLYH 'HVLJQV
+XPDQ1DWXUH
;LDR +  -XO\  6FRUFKLQJ 3DFH IRU /X[XU\ %UDQG 6DOHV &KLQD 'DLO\
5HWULHYHG 1RYHPEHU   IURP KWWSZZZFKLQDGDLO\FRPFQEL]FKLQD
FRQWHQWBKWP




$UWLFOH,,,

<XNL 0 0DGGX[ : :  0DVXGD 7  $UH WKH :LQGRZV WR WKH 6RXO WKH
6DPHLQWKH(DVWDQG:HVW"&XOWXUDO'LIIHUHQFHVLQ8VLQJWKH(\HVDQG0RXWK
DV &XHV WR 5HFRJQL]H (PRWLRQV LQ -DSDQ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV -RXUQDO RI
([SHULPHQWDO3V\FKRORJ\




$UWLFOH,9
3XUXFNHU & +HUUPDQQ $  6SURWW ' ( LQ SUHSDUDWLRQ IRU VXEPLVVLRQ 7KH
)HHOLQJ RI .QRZLQJ WKH %UDQG 7KH ,QWHUSOD\ RI %UDQG $ZDUHQHVV 0HDVXUHV
DQG &RXQWU\ RI 2ULJLQ ,QIRUPDWLRQ RQ &XVWRPHUV :LOOLQJQHVV WR 3XUFKDVH
,QWHUQDWLRQDO0DUNHWLQJ5HYLHZ





7KH)HHOLQJRI.QRZLQJWKH%UDQG7KH,QWHUSOD\RI%UDQG
$ZDUHQHVV0HDVXUHVDQG&RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ,QIRUPDWLRQ
RQ&XVWRPHUV:LOOLQJQHVVWR3XUFKDVH




&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU
$QGUHDV+HUUPDQQ
'DYLG(6SURWW





&KULVWLDQ 3XUXFNHU LV 'RFWRUDO &DQGLGDWH RI 0DUNHWLQJ &HQWHU IRU &XVWRPHU
,QVLJKW8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU#XQLVJFK
$QGUHDV +HUUPDQQ LV 3URIHVVRU RI 0DUNHWLQJ &HQWHU IRU &XVWRPHU ,QVLJKW
8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG$QGUHDV+HUUPDQQ#XQLVJFK
'DYLG(6SURWWLV3URIHVVRURI0DUNHWLQJ&ROOHJHRI%XVLQHVV:DVKLQJWRQ6WDWH
8QLYHUVLW\3XOOPDQ86$'6SURWW#ZVXHGX

$UWLFOH,9

$EVWUDFW
&RXQWU\RIRULJLQLQIRUPDWLRQKDVEHHQFRQVLGHUHGDQLPSRUWDQWGULYHUIRUFXVWRPHUV
SURGXFW TXDOLW\ SHUFHSWLRQV DQG SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV 5HFHQW UHVHDUFK KRZHYHU KDV
FULWLFL]HG WKH SUDFWLFDO UHOHYDQFH RI WKH FRQFHSW IRU VHYHUDO UHDVRQV 2Q RQH KDQG
FXVWRPHUVLQUHDOOLIHDUHRIWHQXQDZDUHRIDSURGXFWVRUEUDQGVFRXQWU\RULJLQ2Q
WKH RWKHU KDQG SUHYLRXV HYLGHQFH VXJJHVWV WKDW FRXQWU\ RI RULJLQ LQIRUPDWLRQ LV RI
GLPLQLVKHG LPSRUWDQFH DV FRPSDUHG WR RWKHU SURGXFW DQG EUDQGUHOHYDQW FXHV LQ
QDWXUDOSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQV0RUHRYHUFRXQWU\RIRULJLQHIIHFWVKDYHEHHQUHSRUWHGWR
EHRIKLJKYDULDELOLW\DQGGHSHQGHQWRQDVSHFWVOLNHSURGXFWFDWHJRU\DQGFXVWRPHUV
FXOWXUDO EDFNJURXQGV ,Q RXU SUHVHQW VWXGLHV ZH VHHN WR FRQWULEXWH WR WKLV GLVFXVVLRQ
E\ LQYHVWLJDWLQJSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQVIRUSURGXFWVIURP YDULRXV SURGXFWFDWHJRULHV%\
UHO\LQJ RQ SDUWLFLSDQW VDPSOHV IURP &KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV ZH ILQG
WKDW FRXQWU\ RI RULJLQ LQIRUPDWLRQ GLVSOD\V D KLJK GHJUHH RI YDULDELOLW\ ZKLOH
VXEMHFWLYHEUDQGDZDUHQHVVSHUFHSWLRQVSURYHWREHDVWDEOHDQGUHOLDEOHSUHGLFWRUIRU
ZLOOLQJQHVV WR SXUFKDVH LQGLFDWLRQV 7KHRUHWLFDO DQG SUDFWLFDO LPSOLFDWLRQV DUH
GLVFXVVHG

.H\ZRUGV&RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ%UDQG$ZDUHQHVV:LOOLQJQHVVWR3XUFKDVH




$UWLFOH,9

,QWURGXFWLRQ
'XULQJWKHODVWGHFDGHWKHZRUOGHFRQRP\KDVFKDQJHGVLJQLILFDQWO\DQGKDVEHFRPH
PRUH JOREDOL]HG WKDQ HYHU EHIRUH 7KLV EULQJV PDQ\ FKDOOHQJHV WR FRPSDQLHV WKDW
PDNHHIIRUWVWRWDSLQWRQHZPDUNHWVDQGILJKWIRUWKHLUKRPHPDUNHWVKDUHLQDQHYHU
JURZWKGHPDQGLQJJOREDOEXVLQHVVVXUURXQGLQJ7KH\DUHH[SRVHGWRQHZFRPSHWLWRUV
LQ D SHUPDQHQW VWUXJJOH IRU UHVRXUFHV DQG FKHDS ODERU DQG WKH ODWWHU RIWHQ OHDGV WR
ODUJHVFDOH SURGXFWLRQ VKLIWV DQG RXWVRXUFLQJ RI ZRUNSODFHV &XVWRPHUV DOVR KDYH WR
DFW ZLWKLQ IXQGDPHQWDOO\ DOWHUHG FRQGLWLRQV DQG DUH VRPHWLPHV IRUFHG WR GUDVWLFDOO\
FKDQJH WKHLU ROG VKRSSLQJ EHKDYLRUV DQG FKDOOHQJH WKHLU PDUNHW EHOLHIV ,Q  WKH
IRUPHUSUHVLGHQWLDOFDQGLGDWH-RKQ0F&DLQH[SUHVVHGWKHVLQFHUHEHOLHILQDWHOHYLVLRQ
LQWHUYLHZ WKDW $SSOH SURGXFWV ZHUH PDQXIDFWXUHG LQ WKH 86$ 3UHVWRZLW] 
:KLOHLWDFWXDOO\FDQQRWEHFRQVLGHUHGDVHFUHWWKDW$SSOHSURGXFHVLWVSURGXFWVPDLQO\
LQ WKH 3HRSOHV 5HSXEOLF RI &KLQD WKH QHZV RQ WKH FRXQWU\ RI RULJLQ &22 WKDW
PDGH WKH URXQGV DIWHU WKH PLVKDS SUREDEO\ DOVR FDXJKW D FRQVLGHUDEOH SDUW RI WKH
SXEOLF E\ VXUSULVH DV ZHOO DVVXPLQJ WKDW -RKQ 0F&DLQ LV QRW H[WUDRUGLQDU\
XQLQIRUPHG,QRXUJOREDOL]HGZRUOGDQGLQSDUWIRUWKHSUHYLRXVO\PHQWLRQHGUHDVRQV
LWLVXQOLNHO\WKDW$SSOHLVDQLVRODWHGFDVHDQGVXUHO\DORWRIFRPSOH[SURGXFWVWKDW
DUH VROG E\ JOREDO EUDQGV DUH RI D GLIIHUHQW &22 WKDQ H[SHFWHG RU HYHQ RI PXOWLSOH
RULJLQV )RUHLJQ FRXQWU\ RULJLQV PD\ QRW DOZD\V HOLFLW SRVLWLYH DVVRFLDWLRQV LQ
FXVWRPHUV DQG QXPHURXV ILQGLQJV IURP PDUNHWLQJ UHVHDUFK KDYH DGGUHVVHG WKH
UHVXOWLQJHIIHFWVRQFXVWRPHUVSURGXFWTXDOLW\SHUFHSWLRQVDQGZLOOLQJQHVVWRSXUFKDVH
:73+RZHYHUFULWLTXHKDVUHFHQWO\EHHQUDLVHGWRZDUGVWKHHFRORJLFDOYDOLGLW\RI
WKH&22UHVHDUFK)RUH[DPSOHRQRQHKDQGFXVWRPHUVDUHQRWDOZD\VDZDUHRIWKH
WUXH&22RIDSDUWLFXODUEUDQGRUSURGXFWRUWKH\PLJKWUDWH&22LQIRUPDWLRQRQO\
RI GLPLQLVKHG LPSRUWDQFH IRU WKHLU SXUFKDVH LQWHQWLRQV DV FRPSDUHG WR RWKHU FXHV
6DPLHH 6KLPS  6KDUPD  2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG PDQ\ FRPSDQLHV JR WKURXJK
JUHDWOHQJWKVWREXLOGWUXO\JOREDOEUDQGVWKDWFDQQRWEHDVFULEHGWRDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\
SHU VH ZKLOH WKHUHIRUH PDNLQJ WKHPVHOYHV LQGHSHQGHQW RI RULJLQ DVVRFLDWLRQV
&RQVXPHUV LQ WXUQ PLJKW UHO\ VROHO\ RQ EUDQG SHUFHSWLRQV VXFK DV WKHLU VXEMHFWLYH
EUDQG DZDUHQHVV ZKLOH ZLGHO\ LJQRULQJ OHVV LPSRUWDQW LQIRUPDWLRQ VRXUFHV VXFK DV
RULJLQLQIRUPDWLRQ
,QRXUFXUUHQWSDSHUZHDLPWRLQYHVWLJDWHWKHUHODWLYHLPSRUWDQFHRI&22LQIRUPDWLRQ
DQG FXVWRPHUV EUDQG DZDUHQHVV RQ :73 VWDWHPHQWV LQ EX\LQJ VFHQDULRV 7KHUH LV D
QHHG IRU WKLV W\SH RI UHVHDUFK EHFDXVH WUDGLWLRQDO UHVHDUFK RQ WKH &22 HIIHFW KDV


$UWLFOH,9

PDLQO\LQYHVWLJDWHGWKHFRQFHSWLQUHODWLYHLVRODWLRQDQGRQO\UDUHO\LQPRUHUHDOLVWLF
SXUFKDVHVFHQDULRVZKLOHPHDVXULQJRWKHUEUDQGRUSURGXFWUHODWHGYDULDEOHV%HIRUH
SUHVHQWLQJ RXU HPSLULFDO VWXG\ ZKLFK ZH FRQGXFWHG ZLWK LQWHUFXOWXUDO VDPSOHV IURP
&KLQD*HUPDQ\DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVWRFDSWXUHDPRUHJOREDOSLFWXUHZHZLOOUHYLHZ
WKH UHOHYDQW OLWHUDWXUH RQ &22 HIIHFWV :H ZLOO VWDUW ZLWK WKH WUDGLWLRQDO
FRQFHSWXDOL]DWLRQV RI &22 DQG SUHVHQW PL[HG UHVXOWV IURP H[SHULPHQWV DQG PHWD
DQDO\VHV:HZLOOWKHQPRYHWRZDUGVLQWHJUDWLYHPRGHOVWKDWHPEHGWKHFRQFHSWLQD
ODUJHU IUDPHZRUN RI GHFLVLRQDO IDFWRUV ZKLFK FDQ EH FRQFHSWXDOL]HG DURXQG WKH
FRQFHSWRIEUDQGNQRZOHGJH(PSLULFDOVXSSRUWZLOOEHSURYLGHGVKRZLQJWKHHOHYDWHG
LPSRUWDQFHRIEUDQGDZDUHQHVVSHUFHSWLRQVIRUSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQVZKLOHHYLGHQFHIRU
&22HIIHFWVVHHPVWREHRIKLJKYDULDELOLW\

7KHRUHWLFDOEDFNJURXQG
&22 LQIOXHQFHV FDQ EH EULHIO\ GHVFULEHG DV WKH HIIHFWV RI D SURGXFWV RULJLQ RQ D
FXVWRPHUV SURGXFW HYDOXDWLRQ SHUFHLYHG YDOXH EUDQG LPDJH DQG HTXLW\ DV ZHOO DV
DVVRFLDWHG SXUFKDVH LQWHQWLRQV FI 3KDUU  )URP D KROLVWLF SRLQW RI YLHZ &22
FDQKHUHE\EHFRQVLGHUHGDVDVLQJOHDVSHFWLQDODUJHUEXQGOHRISURGXFWLQIRUPDWLRQ
VXFK DV EUDQG DQG SULFH WKDW LV DYDLODEOH WR WKH FXVWRPHU ,W LV JHQHUDOO\ DJUHHG RQ
WKDW &22 H[HUWV LWV HIIHFW RQ KXPDQ EHKDYLRU LQ D FRPSOH[ ZD\ LQWHUDFWLQJ ZLWK
YDULRXVRWKHUIDFWRUVRILQIOXHQFHFI3LURQ9HUOHJK 6WHHQNDPS
6LQFHDILUVWHPSLULFDOWHVWRIDUHODWHGQRWLRQLQDVHPLQDOZRUN6FKRROHUWKH
&22FRQVWUXFWKDVUHFHLYHGDORWRIDWWHQWLRQE\WKH PDUNHWLQJUHVHDUFKFRPPXQLW\
VHHNLQJ WR LGHQWLI\ DQWHFHGHQWV RI WKH FRQVWUXFW DV ZHOO DV PRGHUDWRUV RI REVHUYHG
HIIHFWV FI 3HWHUVRQ  -ROLEHUW  3KDUU  9HUOHJK  6WHHQNDPS 
%HVLGHV D GHFRPSRVLWLRQ RI WKH FRQVWUXFW KDV EHHQ SXUVXHG PDLQO\ ZLWK D IRFXV WR
UHIOHFWFXUUHQWHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWVFI,QVFK 0F%ULGH5HJDUGOHVVRIWKH
FRQGXFWHG HIIRUWV WKH QDWXUH RI &22 HIIHFWV LV VXEMHFW WR RQJRLQJ GLVFXVVLRQ DQG
FULWLTXHKDVEHHQUDLVHGQRWRQO\FRQFHUQLQJHPSOR\HGPHWKRGRORJ\DQGPHDVXUHVEXW
DOVRWRZDUGVWKHHFRORJLFYDOLGLW\RIWKHFRQFHSWDVDZKROH
7KH IROORZLQJ VHFWLRQV SURYLGH D VKRUW RYHUYLHZ RQ WKH RXWOLQHG FRQFHSW RI &22
VSHFLILFDOO\ KLJKOLJKWLQJ DVSHFWV WKDW DUH UHODWHG WKH LQLWLDO PRWLYDWLRQ RI RXU SDSHU
ZKLFK LV WKH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI &22 IRU JOREDOO\ PDQXIDFWXUHG
SUHPLXPEUDQGJRRGV7RDGGUHVVUDLVHGFULWLTXHFRQFHUQLQJWKHHFRORJLFDOYDOLGLW\


$UWLFOH,9

FXUUHQW ILQGLQJV RQ WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH EUDQG EUDQG LPDJH XQG FXVWRPHUV EUDQG
DZDUHQHVVZLOODOVREHGLVFXVVHG

0RGHUDWRUVDQGDQWHFHGHQWVRI&22HIIHFWV
1XPHURXVYDULDEOHVKDYHEHHQLGHQWLILHGWRGHWHUPLQHWKHVWUHQJWKDQGQDWXUHRI&22
HIIHFWV 0RVW RI WKHVH YDULDEOHV WDNH WKH SHUVSHFWLYH RI WKH FXVWRPHU EHLQJ
SV\FKRPHWULFRUFRJQLWLYHLQQDWXUHHJLQGLYLGXDOYDOXHEHOLHIVRUWKHDYDLODELOLW\RI
FRJQLWLYH SURFHVVLQJ UHVRXUFHV 2WKHUV VXFK DV FXOWXUDO GLPHQVLRQV RU HFRQRPLF
ZHOOEHLQJ RI WKH FXVWRPHUV KRPH FRXQWU\ FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG DV YDULDEOHV WKDW H[HUW
WKHLUHIIHFWVRQDPRUHJHQHUDOOHYHODIIHFWLQJJURXSVRIFXVWRPHUVZLWKLQWKHLUVSKHUH
RILQIOXHQFH+RZHYHUPDNLQJDGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQWKHWZRJURXSVLVGLIILFXOWDVIRU
H[DPSOH LQGLYLGXDO YDOXHV PLJKW DV ZHOO EH GHWHUPLQHG E\ WKH FXOWXUDO VXUURXQGLQJV
RIDSDUWLFXODUFXVWRPHU(YHQPRUHWKHLQWHUSOD\EHWZHHQDOOWKHVHLQIOXHQFLQJIDFWRUV
FDQEHTXLWHFRPSOH[
)RU H[DPSOH RQ DQ LQGLYLGXDO OHYHO WKH FXVWRPHUV IDPLOLDULW\ ZLWK WKH SURGXFW
FRXQWU\ $KPHG  G
$VWRXV  RU WKH DYDLODELOLW\ RI FRXQWU\ VWHUHRW\SHV /LX 
-RKQVRQ  PD\ H[HUW VWURQJ HIIHFWV RQ &22UHODWHG SURGXFW HYDOXDWLRQV 7KH
SHUVRQDO H[SHULHQFH RI SROLWLFDO RU HFRQRPLF FULVHV PLJKW WULJJHU VSHFLILF DQLPRVLW\
SHUFHSWLRQVZKLFKDUHOLNHO\WRHOHYDWH&22HIIHFWVWRZDUGVSDUWLFXODUQDWLRQV2ULW
PLJKW VWUHQJWKHQ IHHOLQJV RI FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP ZKLOH LQ WXUQ DIIHFWLQJ WKH
SHUFHSWLRQ DQG HYDOXDWLRQ RI IRUHLJQ SURGXFWV LQ JHQHUDO )RU WKDW DQG RWKHU UHDVRQV
WKHGLVWLQFWLRQEHWZHHQIRUHLJQDQLPRVLW\DQGFRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVPLVDQLPSRUWDQW
RQH ZKLFK PXVW EH WKRURXJKO\ FRQVLGHUHG DQG LV SDUWLFXODUO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH
VSHFLILF FRXQWU\ VXEMHFW WR HYDOXDWLRQ %DODEDQLV  'LDPDQWRSRXORV  .OHLQ
7RGDWHVFLHQFHVWLOONHHSVSRLQWLQJRXWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHVHWZRFRQVWUXFWV
LQYDULRXVFRQWH[WVRI&22UHVHDUFKFI)XQN$UWKXUV7UHYLQR -RLUHPDQ
:KLOHVRPHGHWHUPLQDQWVRIWKHFRQVWUXFWKDYHREYLRXVO\EHHQVXEMHFWWRUHSHDWHGDQG
VRPHWLPHV KROLVWLF LQYHVWLJDWLRQV RWKHU YDULDEOHV KDYH RQO\ UHFHQWO\ DWWUDFWHG SXEOLF
DWWHQWLRQ ZLWK WKRURXJK LQYHVWLJDWLRQV VWLOO GXH +RIVWHGHV ZRUN  RQ FXOWXUDO
GLIIHUHQFHVKDVJHQHUDWHGVXFKUHFHQWUHVHDUFKHIIRUWV,QVFKDQG0F%ULGHIRU
H[DPSOH H[SODLQHG REVHUYHG GLIIHUHQFHV UHJDUGLQJ FXVWRPHUV &22 UDWLQJV EHWZHHQ
$PHULFDQV DQG 0H[LFDQV E\ SXOOLQJ XS WKH YDU\LQJ SRZHU GLVWDQFH LQGH[ YDOXHV RI
ERWKFRXQWULHVDQG*UKDQ&DQOLDQG0DKHVZDUDQDORRNHGDWLQGLYLGXDOLVWLFRU


$UWLFOH,9

FROOHFWLYLVWLF RULHQWDWLRQ +RZHYHU WR WKH EHVW RI RXU NQRZOHGJH QR VWXG\ KDV
V\VWHPDWLFDOO\ WHVWHG UHODWLRQVKLSV EHWZHHQ FXOWXUDO GLPHQVLRQV RQ D UHSUHVHQWDWLYH
VFDOHRULQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKSV\FKRPHWULFPHDVXUHV$VDUHVXOWYDULRXVVWXGLHVVWDQG
EHVLGH HDFK RWKHU RIWHQ SURYLGLQJ GLIIHUHQW DSSURDFKHV IRU H[SODQDWLRQV RI IRXQG
HIIHFWV
7R PDNH WKLQJV HYHQ PRUH FRPSOLFDWHG LW KDV EHHQ QRWHG VHYHUDO WLPHV WKDW WKH
GRPHVWLF FRXQWU\ ELDV GLIIHUV ODUJHO\ DFURVV >@ SURGXFW FDWHJRULHV DQG WKDW RWKHU
YDULDEOHV OLNH GHPRJUDSKLFV VKRXOG EH FRQVLGHUHG EHVLGHV &22 WR EHVW H[SODLQ
FRQVXPHUSUHIHUHQFHMXGJPHQWV(YDQVFKLW]N\YRQ :DQJHQKHLP :RLVHWVFKOlJHU 
%OXW7KLVLVLQDFFRUGDQFHZLWKDSUHYLRXVVWDWHPHQWUHVXOWLQJIURPUHVHDUFK
RQOX[XU\SURGXFWV3LURQ7KHUHFXVWRPHUVSXUFKDVHLQWHQWLRQVZHUHKHDYLO\
LPSDFWHG E\ &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU OX[XU\ DQG FRQVSLFXRXV JRRGV ZKLOH WKH LPSDFW
ZDVGLPLQLVKHGIRUQHFHVVLW\DQGLQFRQVSLFXRXVSURGXFWV3KDUUJLYHVDKROLVWLF
RYHUYLHZRQWKHGLVFXVVHGYDULDEOHVDQGWKHLUUHODWLRQVKLSZLWKWKH&22FRQFHSW

6HJPHQWDWLRQRIWKH&22FRQFHSW
,QUHVSRQVHWRRQJRLQJHFRQRPLFGHYHORSPHQWVGXULQJWKHODVWWZRGHFDGHVWKH&22
FRQFHSWKDVEHHQH[WHQGHGDQGGHFRPSRVHGLQYDULRXVZD\V0RVWWHFKQLFDOFRQVXPHU
JRRGVDYDLODEOHLQVWRUHVQRZDGD\VKDYHPXOWLSOHRULJLQDIILOLDWLRQVDQGUHVHDUFKKDV
FULWLFL]HGWKHWUDGLWLRQDORQHGLPHQVLRQDO&22DSSURDFKDVEHLQJJHQHUDOO\WRREURDG
DPELJXRXV DQG WKH FDXVH RI LQFRQFOXVLYH UHVXOWV DFURVV VWXGLHV ,QVFK  0F%ULGH
 5HFHQW &22 OLWHUDWXUH WKHUHIRUH KDV LQWURGXFHG DPRQJVW RWKHUV GHULYDWLYHV
OLNH FRXQWU\ RI DVVHPEO\PDQXIDFWXUH FRXQWU\ RI GHVLJQ FRXQWU\ RI SDUWV DQG PRUH
UHFHQWO\ FRXQWU\ RI EUDQG RULJLQKHDGTXDUWHUV &KDR  ,QVFK  0F%ULGH 
3KDUU  1DWXUDOO\ WKLV GLVWLQFWLRQ PDNHV VHQVH IRU JOREDO SURGXFWV DV IRU
H[DPSOHFDUVDUHRIWHQGHVLJQHGLQRQHFRXQWU\DQGDVVHPEOHGLQDQRWKHUZLWKSDUWV
IURP DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG 7KH FXPXODWHG HYLGHQFH SURYLGHV JRRG VXSSRUW IRU PRVW RI
WKHVHFRQVWUXFWVEXWGRXEWVKDYHEHHQUDLVHGZLWKUHVSHFWWRWKHSUDFWLFDOUHOHYDQFHRI
VXFK ILQHJUDLQHG GLVWLQFWLRQV )RU H[DPSOH WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI WKH PDQXIDFWXULQJ
FRXQWU\ VHHPV WR YDU\ ODUJHO\ EHWZHHQ GLIIHUHQW JURXSV RI FXVWRPHUV DQG WKH
DYDLODELOLW\RIRWKHUVXEFRQVWUXFWVVXFKDVFRXQWU\RIEUDQGSRVVLEO\RYHUFDVWVRWKHU
&22 LQIRUPDWLRQ &KHQ  7KDNRU  /DYDFN  )URP WKH YLHZSRLQW RI DQ
HYHU\GD\ VLWXDWLRQ LW VHHPV TXHVWLRQDEOH ZKHWKHU D XVXDO FXVWRPHU KDV DOO WKH
LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHVHYDULRXVFRQFHSWVDYDLODEOHZKHQKHRUVKHLVPDNLQJDSXUFKDVH


$UWLFOH,9

GHFLVLRQ0RUHRYHUIRUQDWXUDOO\FRPSOH[SURGXFWVOLNHFDUVLQIRUPDWLRQRQFRXQWU\
RI EUDQG FRXQWU\ RI GHVLJQ DQG FRXQWU\ RI DVVHPEO\ PLJKW EH UHDGLO\ DYDLODEOH IRU
KLJKO\LQYROYHGFXVWRPHUVEXWGHWDLOHGLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHFRXQWULHVRISDUWVVXUHO\LV
QRW2WKHUSRLQWVRIFULWLFLVPUDLVHGRQWKH&22FRQFHSWZLOOEHGLVFXVVHGLQWKHQH[W
VHFWLRQ

&ULWLFLVPRQWKH&22FRQFHSW
%HVLGHVWKHLPSUHVVLYHUHVHDUFKHIIRUWVWKH&22FRQFHSWKDVJHQHUDWHGGXULQJWKHODVW
\HDUV FULWLFLVP KDV DOVR EHHQ H[SUHVVHG UHSHDWHGO\ 7KH PDLQ SRLQWV LQYROYH WKH
LQFRQVLVWHQF\RUVWDELOLW\RIUHSRUWHG&22HIIHFWVDQGWKHSUDFWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFHRUWKH
HFRORJLFDOYDOLGLW\RIWKHFRQVWUXFW
,Q D PHWDDQDO\VLV VXPPDUL]LQJ VWXGLHV EHIRUH WKH \HDU  3HWHUVRQ DQG -ROLEHUW
 REVHUYH LQFRQVLVWHQW HIIHFW VL]H SDWWHUQV DQG FRPH WR WKH FRQFOXVLRQ WKDW WKH
&22SKHQRPHQRQLVVWLOOQRWZHOOXQGHUVWRRG%HVLGHVDFDOOIRUIXUWKHULQYHVWLJDWLRQ
WKH\ VWDWH WKDW WKH PHFKDQLVP RI &22 HIIHFWV LV FOHDUO\ GHSHQGHQW RQ WKH VWXG\
FRQWH[W )RU H[DPSOH SUHVHQWDWLRQ RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ WRJHWKHU ZLWK RWKHU
SRWHQWLDOO\UHOHYDQWSURGXFWLQIRUPDWLRQUHGXFHVHIIHFWV,QOLQHZLWKWKLVLWZDVIRXQG
WKDW KLJKO\ PRWLYDWHG FXVWRPHUV QDWXUDOO\ WHQG WR IRFXV RQ RWKHU SURGXFW DWWULEXWHV
EHVLGHV &22 ZKHQ WKH\ DUH DYDLODEOH DQG &22 LV QRW PDGH SDUWLFXODUO\ VDOLHQW
*UKDQ&DQOL  0DKHVZDUDQ E ,Q WKH SUHVHQFH RI RWKHU SURGXFW LQIRUPDWLRQ
DQG ZLWKRXW WKH &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ EHLQJ SDUWLFXODUO\ VDOLHQW RWKHU VWXGLHV ZHUH QRW
DEOHWRILQG&22HIIHFWVDWDOOHJ3HFRWLFK 5RVHQWKDO,QVFKDQG0F%ULGH
VSHFLILFDOO\QRWHWKDWFXVWRPHUVSURGXFWIDPLOLDULW\FDQLQFUHDVHWKHVDOLHQFHRI
&22 LQIRUPDWLRQ 9HUOHJK DQG 6WHHQNDPS  UXQQLQJ D PHWDDQDO\VLV RQ
PDUNHWLQJ DQG EXVLQHVV MRXUQDOV IURP D VLPLODU WLPH VSDQ WDNH WKLQJV D VWHS IXUWKHU
DQG LGHQWLI\ WKH GHSHQGHQW PHDVXUH RI WKH &22 HIIHFW DV DQ LPSRUWDQW VRXUFH IRU
REVHUYHG GLIIHUHQFHV :KLOH SURGXFW TXDOLW\ HYDOXDWLRQV UHDFW KLJKO\ WR &22
LQIRUPDWLRQ WKH HIIHFW RQ SXUFKDVH LQWHQWLRQ LV ODUJHO\ GLPLQLVKHG $ QHZHU UHYLHZ
HYHQ FRQFOXGHV WKDW &22 HYDOXDWLRQV KDYH OLWWOH RU QR GLUHFW LQIOXHQFH RQ SXUFKDVH
LQWHQWLRQV 3KDUU  DQG YDULRXV VWXGLHV VHHP WR FRQILUP WKLV QRWLRQ
3DUDPHVZDUDQ  3LVKDURGL  +RZHYHU WKLV VWDWHPHQW PXVW DJDLQ EH TXDOLILHG
E\ UHFHQW VWXGLHV RQ DQLPRVLW\ SHUFHSWLRQV LQ EX\LQJ K\EULG FDUV ZKLFK VKRZ WKH
SDUWLFXODUHIIHFW)XQNHWDO7RVXPXSLWFDQEHFRQFOXGHGWKDW&22HIIHFWV
FDQ EH IRXQG EXW WKH HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFH DOVR XQGHUOLQHV WKH IDFW WKDW WKH VDOLHQFH RI


$UWLFOH,9

WKHFRQVWUXFWLVFOHDUO\RILPSRUWDQFHIRUWKHPDJQLWXGHRILWVLQIOXHQFH3DUWLFXODUO\LQ
QDWXUDOSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQVRWKHUSURGXFWLQIRUPDWLRQLVOLNHO\WRRYHUFDVWWKHHIIHFWRI
&22LQIRUPDWLRQ
7KHODWWHUVWDWHPHQWSRLQWVWRWKHVHFRQGPDMRUSRLQWRIFULWLTXHUDLVHGLQUHFHQW\HDUV
QDPHO\WKHSUDFWLFDOUHOHYDQFHRIWKH&22FRQVWUXFWDQGLWVH[SODQDWRU\YDOXHIRUUHDO
OLIH FXVWRPHU GHFLVLRQV 7KLV GRXEW LV QRW RQO\ QRXULVKHG E\ VWXGLHV OLNH WKH RQHV
PHQWLRQHG DERYH WKDW LQGLUHFWO\ PHDVXUH &22 HIIHFWV RQ FXVWRPHUV SURGXFW
HYDOXDWLRQVDQGSXUFKDVHLQWHQWLRQVEXWDOVRE\VWXGLHVWKDWGLUHFWO\DVNFXVWRPHUVIRU
WKHLULPSRUWDQFHUDQNLQJV)RUH[DPSOHLQDUDWLQJWDVNZLWKGLIIHUHQWSURGXFWVIURP
GLIIHUHQWRULJLQVSDUWLFLSDQWVDFURVVDOOFRQGLWLRQVLQGLFDWHGWKDWWKH\SHUFHLYHG&22
WREHWKHOHDVWLPSRUWDQWDWWULEXWHIRUWKHLUSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQ3LURQ$WWULEXWHV
OLNH SULFH SHUIRUPDQFH RU DSSHDUDQFH ZHUH DOZD\V UDWHG DV PRUH LPSRUWDQW
)XUWKHUPRUHLQWKHFDVHRIUHDOSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQVLWKDVDOVREHHQTXHVWLRQHGDVWR
ZKDW H[WHQW FXVWRPHUV DFWXDOO\ KROG &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKHLU DFWLYH NQRZOHGJH ,Q
WKHOLJKWRIWKLVDSSUHKHQVLRQUHVHDUFKHUVKDYHVWDUWHGLQYHVWLJDWLQJFXVWRPHUVDELOLW\
WR FRUUHFWO\ QDPH WKH RULJLQ RI FHUWDLQ SURGXFW EUDQGV $IWHU FRQGXFWLQJ VHYHUDO
H[SHULPHQWVRQWKDWWRSLF6DPLHH6KLPSDQG6KDUPDIRUH[DPSOHFRPHWRWKH
FRQFOXVLRQWKDWSDVWUHVHDUFKKDVLQIODWHGWKHLQIOXHQFHWKDW&22LQIRUPDWLRQKDVRQ
FRQVXPHUVSURGXFWMXGJPHQWV0RUHRYHUWKH\FRQFOXGHWKDWPRVWRIWKHFXVWRPHUV
NQRZOHGJH RQ &22 RI D SURGXFW EUDQG LV GHWHUPLQHG E\ VXSHUILFLDO LQIRUPDWLRQ OLNH
WKHEUDQGVQDPH:KLOHWKHDXWKRUVVWLOOJUDQWWKDW&22LQIRUPDWLRQPLJKWSOD\DUROH
LQWKHSURFHVVRIEUDQGLPDJHIRUPDWLRQDQG&22PLJKWH[HUWVRPHGLDJQRVWLFYDOXH
LQFHUWDLQSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQVWKH\VWLOOKLJKOLJKWWKHIDFWWKDW&22LQIRUPDWLRQSOD\VD
FRPSDUDWLYHO\ PLQRU UROH LQ IRU FXVWRPHUV SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV LQ FRPSDULVRQ WR
DFFRPSDQ\LQJEUDQGPDUNHWLQJHIIRUWV

7KHLPSRUWDQFHRIEUDQGNQRZOHGJH
8QGHUVWDQGLQJFXVWRPHUVSXUFKDVHEHKDYLRUKDVEHHQWKHIRFXVRIPDUNHWLQJVFKRODUV
VLQFHWKHHDUO\GD\V,QDSSO\LQJDPRUHKROLVWLFYLHZDORWRIUHVHDUFKKDVIRFXVHGRQ
XQGHUVWDQGLQJ FXVWRPHUV EHKDYLRU LQ PDUNHW SODFHV  KRZ WKH\ SHUFHLYH EUDQGV DQG
KRZWKH\EXLOGEUDQGNQRZOHGJHLQSDUWLFXODU.HOOHUKDVVXPPDUL]HGDVSHFWV
RILQIRUPDWLRQWKDWFDQEHFRQVLGHUHGWREHWKHPDLQGLPHQVLRQVRIEUDQGNQRZOHGJH
%HVLGHV LQGLYLGXDO FXVWRPHU DVVRFLDWLRQV OLNH DWWLWXGHV H[SHULHQFHV DQG EHQHILWV
.HOOHU  PHQWLRQV EUDQG DZDUHQHVV DQG EUDQG QDPH SURGXFW DWWULEXWHV WR EH RI


$UWLFOH,9

FHQWUDOLPSRUWDQFHIRUSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQV+HUHE\DWWULEXWHVUHIHUWRLQWULQVLFSURGXFW
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV VXFK DV SURGXFW TXDOLW\ DQG SHUIRUPDQFH RU H[WULQVLF FKDUDFWHULVWLFV
VXFKDVSULFHRUEUDQGSHUVRQDOLW\&22FDQEHDVFULEHGWRWKHODWWHUUHDOPEHLQJRQH
VLQJOH H[WULQVLF FXH DORQJVLGH RWKHU SURGXFW DWWULEXWHV FRQVLGHUHG E\ WKH FXVWRPHU
ZKHQKHPDNHVDGHFLVLRQ%UDQGDZDUHQHVVRQWKHRWKHUKDQGPD\SOD\DQLPSRUWDQW
UROH LQ FRVWXPHUV GHFLVLRQ PDNLQJ SURFHVV LQGHSHQGHQW RI SURGXFW DWWULEXWHV
&XVWRPHUV WHQG WR EX\ ZHOONQRZQ EUDQGV DQG UHVHDUFK KDV VKRZQ WKDW HVSHFLDOO\
ZKHQ FXVWRPHU LQYROYHPHQW RU SURGXFW NQRZOHGJH LV ORZ FXVWRPHUV XVXDOO\ UHO\ RQ
EUDQG DZDUHQHVV IRU WKHLU FKRLFH FI .HOOHU  2QH FRXOG UHDGLO\ DVVXPH WKDW
EUDQGVVHUYHDVVRPHNLQGRIMXGJPHQWELDVWDNLQJLQIOXHQFHRQFXVWRPHUVGHFLVLRQV
ZKHQHYHUWKH\IHHOOLNHEHLQJDZDUHRIDEUDQGFI.HOOHU /HKPDQQ
7KHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHEUDQGIRUXQGHUVWDQGLQJ&22HIIHFWVKDVEHHQGLVFXVVHGLQWKH
&22 OLWHUDWXUH DQG DV SRLQWHG RXW ILQGLQJV KDYH DFFXPXODWHG VXJJHVWLQJ WKDW &22
HIIHFWVPLJKWEHVHYHUHO\DWWHQXDWHGE\RWKHULQIOXHQWLDOIDFWRUVEHLQJRYHUDOORQO\RI
PLQRU LPSRUWDQFH LQ D ODUJHU EUDQG EDVHG FRQVWUXFW 3KDUU  ,Q WLPHV RI D
JOREDOL]LQJ HFRQRP\ ZLWK SURGXFWV DQG EUDQGV IURP DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG ZKLFK LQ
WXUQ RIWHQ IHDWXUH SURGXFWV IURP PXOWLSOH RULJLQV EHLQJ DYDLODEOH WR WKH JOREDO
FXVWRPHU WKH VDOLHQFH DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU
FXVWRPHUV SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV FRXOG EH IXUWKHU GLPLQLVKHG 7KLV QRWLRQ VKRXOG EH
SDUWLFXODUO\ WUXH IRU SURGXFWV ZLWK VWURQJ JOREDO EUDQGV DV WKHVH EUDQGV DVSLUH WR
DFKLHYH D EUDQG DQG SURGXFW LPDJH WKDW UHPDLQV SRVLWLYH DFURVV WKH ZKROH ZRUOG LQ
VSLWHRIORFDORULJLQDVVRFLDWLRQVFI6DPLHHHWDO7KHIROORZLQJVHFWLRQZLOO
SURYLGHDVKRUWRYHUYLHZRQ&22OLWHUDWXUHWKDWVSHFLILFDOO\IRFXVHVRQSURGXFWVZLWK
K\EULGSURGXFWLRQEDFNJURXQGDQGRUZLWKDVWURQJJOREDOEUDQGEDFNJURXQG

+\EULGDQGEUDQGHGSURGXFWVLQWLPHVRIJOREDOL]DWLRQ
,QWKHHUDRIJOREDOL]DWLRQWKHDYDLODELOLW\RISURGXFWVZLWKK\EULGSURGXFWRULJLQVLV
PRUH ZLGHVSUHDG WKDQ HYHU 1HDUO\ DOO WHFKQRORJLFDO SURGXFWV FRQWDLQ SDUWV IURP
PXOWLSOH FRXQWULHV )RU H[DPSOH ZKLOH WKH L3KRQH LV DVVHPEOHG E\ WKH 7DLZDQHVH
PDQXIDFWXUHU)R[FRQQWKHVLQJOHSDUWVRIWKHGHYLFHDWOHDVWIRUWKHXVXDOFXVWRPHU
LQFRQFHLYDEO\ FRPH IURP PDQ\ PDQXIDFWXUHUV IURP DOO RYHU WKH ZRUOG 2Q WKH RWKHU
KDQGWKHJHQXLQHEUDQGRIWKHL3KRQH$SSOHLVVXFKDVWURQJEUDQGWKDWLWGRPLQDWHV
WKH FXVWRPHUV &22 DVVRFLDWLRQV LQ SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV 3UHVWRZLW]  ,Q SDVW
\HDUVVHYHUDOH[SHULPHQWVRQ&22HIIHFWVKDYHEHHQFRQGXFWHGZLWKK\EULGSURGXFWV


$UWLFOH,9

SURPLQHQWO\ IRFXVLQJ RQ DXWRPRELOHV 0RVW UHVHDUFK DOWKRXJK VRPHWLPHV DLPLQJ

H[SOLFLWO\DWEUDQGUHODWHGDVSHFWVKHUHE\DYRLGVPHQWLRQLQJUHDOEUDQGQDPHV$VDQ
H[DPSOHLQDQH[SHULPHQWZLWK$PHULFDQSDUWLFLSDQWV)HWVFKHULQDQG7RQFDU
YDULHG &22 RI WKH EUDQG DQG FRXQWU\ RI PDQXIDFWXULQJ RI FDUV EHWZHHQ WKH 8QLWHG
6WDWHV DQG &KLQD $OWKRXJK HIIHFWV RI ERWK LQGHSHQGHQW YDULDEOHV RQ PHDVXUHV RI
EUDQGSHUVRQDOLW\ZHUHIRXQGWKHUHVHDUFKGHVLJQPDNHVJHQHUDOL]DWLRQVWRUHDOEUDQGV
GLIILFXOW2WKHUVWXGLHVZLWKK\EULGSURGXFWVIURPYDULRXVSURGXFWFDWHJRULHVH[LVWWKDW
H[DPLQH WKH ZKROH UDQJH RI GHULYDWLYHV RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ HJ D VWXG\ E\ &KDR
 WKDW DOVR UHOLHG RQ $PHULFDQ SDUWLFLSDQWV ,Q OLQH ZLWK WKH SUHYLRXV VHFWLRQV
WKH UHVXOW SDWWHUQV DUH RIWHQ TXLWH FRPSOH[ EXW RIWHQ FRQILUP WKH H[LVWHQFH RI VRPH
JHQHUDO RU GHULYHG &22 HIIHFW +RZHYHU WKHRU\GULYHQ H[SODQDWLRQV DUH QRW DOZD\V
SRVVLEOH VR DXWKRUV VRPHWLPHV FRPH XS ZLWK YHU\ FDVHVSHFLILF H[SODQDWLRQV FI
&KDR)LQDOO\VWXGLHVZLWKK\EULGSURGXFWVLQYHVWLJDWLQJYDULRXVDQWHFHGHQWVRI
WKH&22FRQVWUXFWKDYHDULVHQ,QDQH[SHULPHQWXVLQJDXWRPRELOHV)XQNHWDO
LQYHVWLJDWHG WKH HIIHFW FRXQWU\ RI DVVHPEO\ KDG RQ $PHULFDQ FXVWRPHUV SXUFKDVH
LQWHQWLRQV 7KH\ IRXQG VWURQJ FRXQWU\VSHFLILF HIIHFWV WKDW ZHUH PRGHUDWHG E\
FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP IRUHLJQ FRXQWU\ DQLPRVLW\ DQG SDUWLFLSDQWV YDOXH EHOLHIV
:KLOH WKH FDU EUDQG LV H[SOLFLWO\ QDPHG LQ WKLV VWXG\ QR HIIRUWV WR LQYHVWLJDWH WKH
LPSRUWDQFHRIEUDQGNQRZOHGJHZHUHSHUIRUPHG

6WXG\REMHFWLYHV
,Q OLJKW RI WKHVH ILQGLQJV WKH FXUUHQW UHVHDUFK DLPV DW LQYHVWLJDWLQJ &22 HIIHFWV
DORQJVLGH EUDQG LPDJH LQIOXHQFHV 0HWDDQDO\WLF LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI WUDGLWLRQDO &22
UHVHDUFK KDV LQGLFDWHG WKDW &22 HIIHFWV DUH OLNHO\ WR H[HUW WKHLU HIIHFW RQ FXVWRPHUV
SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV LQ LQWHUSOD\ ZLWK PDQ\ RWKHU SURGXFW DQG EUDQGUHODWHG DVSHFWV
+RZHYHU D KROLVWLF LQWHJUDWLRQ KDV EHHQ QHJOHFWHG ODUJHO\ LQ WKH OLWHUDWXUH VR IDU
ZKLFK KDV IRFXVHG PDLQO\ RQ DQ LVRODWHG YLHZ RQ &22 HIIHFWV ZLWK ILFWLRQDO EUDQGV
DQGH[SHULPHQWDOVHWWLQJVWKDWZHUHOLNHO\WRHOHYDWHWKHVDOLHQFHRI&22LQIRUPDWLRQ
7KLVPLJKWKDYHFDXVHGDQRYHUHVWLPDWLRQLQWKHLPSRUWDQFHRIWKHVHHIIHFWVLQUHDOOLIH
SXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQVZLWKUHDOEUDQGVDQGSURGXFWLQIRUPDWLRQ0RUHRYHUFXUUHQWJOREDO
HFRQRPLF GHYHORSPHQWV DUH H[SHFWHG WR DOWHU WKH VDOLHQFH RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ D
PDMRU ZD\ )URP WKH YLHZSRLQW RI D JOREDO EUDQG PDQDJHU LW LV UHOHYDQW WR NQRZ
ZKHWKHU DQG WR ZKDW H[WHQW &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ XQIROGV HIIHFWV LQ SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV
ZLWKUHDOEUDQGV7KHUHIRUHLQWKHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFKZHZDQWWRDVVHVVZKHWKHUWKHXVH



$UWLFOH,9

RIILFWLRQDOEUDQGVPDNHVDPDMRUGLIIHUHQFHWRWKHXVHRIUHDOQDPHRULJLQDOEUDQGV
7KHIROORZLQJK\SRWKHVHVZHUHGHGXFWHGIRUWKHFXUUHQWUHVHDUFK
+ 6XEMHFWLYHDZDUHQHVVSDUWLFLSDQWVH[SUHVVIRUDSURGXFWVEUDQGLV
PRUH LPSRUWDQW IRU WKHLU :73 D SDUWLFXODU SURGXFW WKDQ &22
LQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHSURGXFW
+D )RU SURGXFW FDWHJRULHV WKDW SURYRNH KLJK FXVWRPHU LQYROYHPHQW
&22 LQIRUPDWLRQ H[HUWV D VWURQJHU HIIHFW RQ WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV
:73WKDQIRUSURGXFWFDWHJRULHVZLWKORZFXVWRPHULQYROYHPHQW
+E )RU EUDQGV SDUWLFLSDQWV DUH IDPLOLDU ZLWK &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ LV
PRUH VDOLHQW DQG WKHUHIRUH H[HUWV D VWURQJHU HIIHFW RQ WKH
SDUWLFLSDQWV:73WKDQZLWKEUDQGVZKHUHIDPLOLDULW\LVORZ
7KH FDWHJRU\ RI SURGXFWV IRU ZKLFK WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV LQ WKH VWXG\ ZLOO KDYH WR PDNH
WKHLU FKRLFH KDV WR EH FRQVLGHUHG FDUHIXOO\ &XVWRPHU LQYROYHPHQW DQG SURGXFW
IDPLOLDULW\ ERWK RI ZKLFK DUH H[SHFWHG WR UHODWH WR WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI SXUFKDVH
GHFLVLRQV YDU\ JUHDWO\ EHWZHHQ FXVWRPHU JURXSV DQG SURGXFW FDWHJRULHV 0RUHRYHU
FRXQWU\VSHFLILF GLIIHUHQFHV UHJDUGLQJ WKH LQYROYHPHQW ZLWK SDUWLFXODU SURGXFW
FDWHJRULHVDUHWREHH[SHFWHGFI3KDUU
$XWRPRELOHV FDQ EH FRQVLGHUHG DV D SDUWLFXODUO\ LQWHUHVWLQJ SURGXFW FDWHJRU\ IRU
YDULRXVUHDVRQV)LUVWRIDOOLQPRVWGHYHORSHGFRXQWULHVRIWKHZRUOGWKHVDOLHQFHRI
WKHSURGXFWLVYHU\KLJKXVXDOO\EHLQJWKHPRVWLPSRUWDQWPHDQVRIWUDQVSRUWDWLRQ,Q
PRVW :HVWHUQ FRXQWULHV WKHUH LV KLJK HFRQRPLF DQG VRFLDO SUHVVXUH WR RZQ D FDU $W
ODWHVW DQG PRVW SUREDEO\ HDUOLHU ZKHQ XQLYHUVLW\ VWXGHQWV DUH HQWHULQJ WKH ZRUNLQJ
ZRUOG WKH\ PLJKW KDYH WR FRQVLGHU EX\LQJ D FDU 7KHUHIRUH RQH FDQ UHDGLO\ DVVXPH
WKDW D FDUEX\LQJ VFHQDULR SURYRNHV KLJK SDUWLFLSDQW LQYROYHPHQW LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV
6HFRQGO\WKHDXWRPRELOHLQGXVWU\KDVDORQJWUDGLWLRQLQPRVW:HVWHUQLQGXVWULDOL]HG
FRXQWULHV DQG LQKDELWDQWV DFURVV DOO VRFLDO FODVVHV SRVVHVV D FRQVLGHUDEO\ KLJK
NQRZOHGJH RI FDUV ,Q QHZO\ GHYHORSHG FRXQWULHV DQG FRXQWULHV ZLWK KXJH VRFLHWDO
GLIIHUHQFHV DV IRU H[DPSOH LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH SRZHU GLVWDQFH LQGH[ WKLV PD\ QRW
JHQHUDOO\EHWKHFDVH
$OWHUQDWLYHO\OX[XU\SURGXFWFDWHJRULHVVXFKDVSUHPLXPZDWFKHVFORWKLQJRUZLQH
PLJKW LQYROYH SURGXFW EUDQGV WKDW DUH QRW LQ WKH FRQVLGHUDWLRQ VHWV RI VRPH VRFLDO
JURXSVHJVWXGHQWVSHRSOHIURPDFHUWDLQFRXQWU\DQGEX\LQJVFHQDULRVIRUWKHVH


$UWLFOH,9

SURGXFWV ZRXOG JHQHUDOO\ OHDG WR ORZHU SDUWLFLSDQW LQYROYHPHQW LQ WKHVH JURXSV FI
3LURQ
)RUWKHRSHUDWLRQDOL]DWLRQLQRXUVWXG\LWLVVWUDLJKWIRUZDUGWRH[SHFWWKDWIDPLOLDULW\
ZLWK D SURGXFW YDULHV QDWXUDOO\ ZLWK WKH EUDQG RI WKH SURGXFW ZLWK FXVWRPHUV EHLQJ
PRUH IDPLOLDU ZLWK UHDOQDPH EUDQGV WKDQ ZLWK ILFWLRQDO RQHV )XUWKHUPRUH LW FDQ EH
H[SHFWHG WKDW EUDQG IDPLOLDULW\ GHFUHDVHV ZLWK ORZHU SURGXFW FDWHJRU\ LQYROYHPHQW
+RZHYHULQSUDFWLFH LW PD\ QRWEHSRVVLEOH WRGLVHQWDQJOH WKHODWWHU PHFKDQLVPFI
,QVFK 0F%ULGH
7KH RXWOLQHG K\SRWKHVHV ZLOO EH LQYHVWLJDWHG HPSLULFDOO\ LQ WZR PDLQ VWXGLHV ZLWK
SDUWLFLSDQWVIURP&KLQD*HUPDQ\DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV:HSHUFHLYHWKHQHFHVVLW\WR
HPSOR\ D FURVVFXOWXUDO SHUVSHFWLYH DV SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK RQ &22 FOHDUO\ LQGLFDWHG
FRXQWU\VSHFLILF HIIHFWV 2EVHUYHG HIIHFWV PD\ EH OLQNHG WR SDUWLFXODU FXOWXUDO
EDFNJURXQGVDIIHFWLQJUHODWLRQVKLSVZLWKFHUWDLQSURGXFWVIRUHLJQFRXQWU\VWHUHRW\SHV
RUDQLPRVLWLHVFI$KPHG G
$VWRXV$QRWKHUK\SRWKHVLV ZLOOEHLQWURGXFHG
DKHDGRI6WXG\EXLOGLQJRQOHVVRQVIURP6WXG\

(PSLULFDOVWXGLHV
6WXG\D
7KLV ILUVW VWXG\ ZDV VHW XS ZLWK D SDUWLFXODU IRFXV RQ K\SRWKHVLV + DLPLQJ WR VHH
ZKHWKHU &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV LPSRUWDQW DV FRPSDUHG WR EUDQG NQRZOHGJH ZKHQ
PDNLQJDSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQ3DUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDVNHGWRPDNHDSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQIRUD
FDU DQG WKH\ ZHUH VKRZQ DQ DGYHUWLVHPHQW EHIRUHKDQG WKDW IHDWXUHG VSHFLILF &22
LQIRUPDWLRQ EHVLGHV VKRZLQJ D FDU SLFWXUH DQG RWKHU DGYHUWLVLQJ WH[W :H H[SHFW
DXWRPRELOHVWRHOLFLWKLJKLQYROYHPHQWLQRXUVWXGHQWSDUWLFLSDQWJURXSSDUWLFXODUO\LQ
*HUPDQ\DQGWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV,QWKHVH:HVWHUQFXOWXUHVFDUVDUHQRWRQO\PHUHO\DQ
HFRQRPLF QHFHVVLW\ EXW DOVR KLJKO\ DIIRUGDEOH 3HUVRQDO SRVVHVVLRQ LV ZLGHVSUHDG
DPRQJVWXQLYHUVLW\VWXGHQWV7KLVKRZHYHUGRHVFHUWDLQO\QRWKROGIRUVWXGHQWVRQWKH
XQLYHUVLW\ OHYHO LQ &KLQD DW WKH PRPHQW ZKHUH VWXGHQW HDUQLQJV RU SDUHQWV LQFRPHV
RIWHQ GR QRW DOORZ IRU EX\LQJ D FDU 9HKLFOH RZQHUVKLS LV IDU OHVV FRPPRQ LQ &KLQD
WKDQ LQ *HUPDQ\ RU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG DV IRU H[DPSOH LQGLFDWHG E\ WKH *,1,
LQGH[RUPRUHLQGLUHFWO\E\FXOWXUHEDVHGSRZHUGLVWDQFHPHDVXUHV+RIVWHGH
SUHPLXP JRRGV VXFK DV FDUV DUH QRW DYDLODEOH WR D JHQHUDO SXEOLF :H WKHUHIRUH


$UWLFOH,9

H[SHFW WKH SHUVRQDO LQYROYHPHQW ZLWK RXU VFHQDULR WR EH PXFK ORZHU WKHUH 6WLOO ZH
SUHVXPHWKHIDPLOLDULW\RIDXWRPRELOHEUDQGVWREHUHDVRQDEO\KLJKLQRXUSDUWLFLSDQW
JURXS DV WKH DXWRPRELOH LQGXVWU\ LV ERRPLQJ LQ &KLQD DQG SUHPLXP EUDQGV DUH
QRQHWKHOHVV GRPLQDWLQJ WKH VWUHHWVFDSH LQ ODUJHU FLWLHV DQG SXEOLF DGYHUWLVHPHQWV ,Q
RXU VWXG\ ZH GHOLEHUDWHO\ UHOLHG RQ SDUWLFLSDQWV GLUHFW VWDWHPHQWV ZKHQ PHDVXULQJ
SXUFKDVHLQWHQWLRQDQGEUDQGDZDUHQHVV7KHSXUFKDVHLQWHQWLRQZDVPHDVXUHGE\WKH
:73VFDOHZKLFKZDVVXFFHVVIXOO\LPSOHPHQWHGLQSUHYLRXVUHVHDUFKE\)XQNHW DO
%UDQGDZDUHQHVVZDVLGHQWLILHGDVDFRUHGULYHURIEUDQGNQRZOHGJH.HOOHU
 $OWKRXJK YDULRXV LPSOHPHQWDWLRQV RI PHDVXULQJ WKH FRQVWUXFW KDYH EHHQ
UHSRUWHG WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV GLUHFWO\ VWDWHG EUDQG DZDUHQHVV LV FRQVLGHUHG VXIILFLHQW
VLQFH HYHQ WKH IHHOLQJ RI NQRZLQJ D EUDQG PLJKW EH HQRXJK WR LPSDFW D SXUFKDVH
GHFLVLRQ
6DPSOH
7KH SDUWLFLSDQW VDPSOHV IRU 6WXG\ D FRQVLVWHG RI XQLYHUVLW\ VWXGHQWV IURP &KLQD
*HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 3DUWLFLSDQWV IURP &KLQD DQG *HUPDQ\ ZHUH
DSSURDFKHGE\UHO\LQJRQWKHVHUYLFHVRIDPDUNHWUHVHDUFKDJHQF\ZKLOHSDUWLFLSDQWV
IURPWKH8QLWHG6WDWHVMRLQHGWKHVXUYH\IRU SDUWLDOFRXUVHFUHGLW 6DPSOHVL]HVZHUH
IRUWKH&KLQHVHVDPSOHRIZKLFKZHUHIHPDOHV0$JH 6'$*( 
IRUWKH*HUPDQVDPSOHRIZKLFKZHUHIHPDOHV0$JH 6'$JH 
DQGIRUWKH$PHULFDQVDPSOHRIZKLFKZHUHIHPDOHV0$JH 6'$JH 
 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR FRPSOHWH D FRPSXWHUDGPLQLVWHUHG TXHVWLRQQDLUH RI
DSSUR[LPDWHO\ PLQXWHVGXUDWLRQ 3DUWLFLSDQWVLGHQWLILHGIRUFOLFNWKURXJKEHKDYLRU
KDYHEHHQSUHYLRXVO\H[FOXGHGIURPWKHVDPSOHV
3URFHGXUHDQGVWLPXOL
,QWKHVWXG\WKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDVNHGWRLPPHUVHWKHPVHOYHVLQWRDUHDOLVWLFEX\LQJ
VFHQDULR ZKHUH WKH\ ZDQWHG WR REWDLQ D QHZ FDU WR VXLW WKH QHHGV RI WKHPVHOYHV DQG
WKHLUIDPLOLHV(PSOR\LQJDEHWZHHQVXEMHFWVGHVLJQHDFKSDUWLFLSDQWZDVWKHQVKRZQ
DQ DUWLILFLDO DGYHUWLVHPHQW IRU D ILFWLRQDO FRPSDFW H[HFXWLYH FDU E\ D PDMRU *HUPDQ
SUHPLXP DXWRPRELOH PDQXIDFWXUHU 7KH DGYHUWLVHPHQW GLVSOD\HG VRPH JHQHUDO
LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH FDU DQG JDYH GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW ERWK WKH FRXQWU\ RI
GHVLJQRIWKHFDUDQGWKHFRXQWU\RIDVVHPEO\VHH)LJXUHIRUDVLPLODUVWLPXOXVIURP
6WXG\ E 7KH GHVLJQ RI WKH DGYHUWLVHPHQW UHOLHG RQ DQ RULJLQDO OD\RXW RI WKH


$UWLFOH,9

DXWRPRELOHFRPSDQ\DQGLPLWDWHGDUHDO DGYHUWLVHPHQW 3RVVLEOHFRXQWULHVIRUGHVLJQ

RU DVVHPEO\ ZHUH &KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV 'LUHFWO\ DIWHUZDUGV
SDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDVNHGKRZOLNHO\LWZRXOGEH+RZOLNHO\LVLWWKDW\RXZRXOGEX\
WKH YHKLFOH GHVFULEHG LQ WKH DGYHUWLVHPHQW" WR EX\ WKH FDU RQ D SRLQW /LNHUWW\SH
VFDOHUDQJLQJIURP9HU\XQOLNHO\WR9HU\OLNHO\7KHSHUFHLYHGIDPLOLDULW\
ZLWK WKH GLVSOD\HG RULJLQDO FDU EUDQG , DP DZDUH RI WKH >GLVSOD\HG RULJLQDO FDU@
EUDQG ZDV DVVHVVHG E\ D VLQJOH SRLQW LWHP PHDVXUH UDQJLQJ IURP 6WURQJO\
GLVDJUHH WR 6WURQJO\ DJUHH $IWHUZDUGV VHYHUDO SV\FKRPHWULF TXHVWLRQV ZHUH
DGPLQLVWHUHG IROORZLQJ SURFHGXUHV RXWOLQHG LQ SUHYLRXV OLWHUDWXUH FI )XQN HW DO
 4XHVWLRQV GHULYHG IURP SURGXFW TXDOLW\ VFDOHV XVHG LQ SUHYLRXV UHVHDUFK FI
)XQNHWDOPHDVXUHGWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVFRXQWU\DVVRFLDWHGSHUFHSWLRQVRISURGXFW
TXDOLW\&34:HKHUHE\UHOLHGRQDLWHPVHPDQWLFGLIIHUHQWLDOPHDVXUHIRUHDFKRI
WKH FRXQWULHV EDVLFDOO\ UDQJLQJ IURP 1RW HJ UHOLDEOH DW DOO WR 9HU\ HJ
UHOLDEOH7KHEULHILQYHQWRU\RIYDOXHV%,9DVKRUWYHUVLRQRIWKH6FKZDUW]VYDOXH
LQYHQWRU\ DGDSWHG E\ 6WHUQ 'LHW] DQG *XDJQDQR  FRYHUHG WKH PDMRU YDOXH
IDFWRUV %LRVSKHULF YDOXHV $OWUXLVWLF YDOXHV &RQVHUYDWLRQ RU 7UDGLWLRQDO
YDOXHV6HOI(QKDQFHPHQWRU(JRLVWLFYDOXHVDQG2SHQQHVVWR&KDQJHYDOXHV
7KHVH YDOXHV ZHUH DVVHVVHG E\ LWHP SRLQW VFDOHV DVNLQJ WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV WR
HYDOXDWH WKH LPSRUWDQFH UDQJLQJ IURP 1RW DW DOO LPSRUWDQW WR ([WUHPHO\
LPSRUWDQW RI WKH LWHPV DV FHQWUDO JXLGLQJ SULQFLSOHV LQ WKHLU OLYHV $ FRQVXPHU
HWKQRFHQWULVP VFDOH EDVHG RQ 6KLPS  6KDUPD  ZDV DGPLQLVWHUHG WR DVVHVV
FRQVXPHUV SDWULRWLF EHOLHIV WRZDUGV WKH FRQVXPSWLRQ RI IRUHLJQ SURGXFWV 7KH VFDOH
FRQVLVWHGRIIRXUSRLQWVHPDQWLFGLIIHUHQWLDOLWHPVUDQJLQJIURP6WURQJO\GLVDJUHH
WR 6WURQJO\ DJUHH 7KH VXUYH\ ZDV GRXEOHEDFNWUDQVODWHG WR *HUPDQ DQG &KLQHVH
VRWKDWLWFRXOGEHDGPLQLVWHUHGWRWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVLQWKHLUUHVSHFWLYHQDWLYHODQJXDJHV
$QDO\VLVDQGUHVXOWV
7KHGDWDZDVDQDO\]HGUHO\LQJRQDOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHOIUDPHZRUN7KHPRGHOVZHUH
HVWLPDWHG XVLQJ WKH OPH IXQFWLRQ IURP WKH QOPH SDFNDJH RI WKH VWDWLVWLFDO
SURJUDPPLQJ ODQJXDJH 5 3LQKHLUR %DWHV 'HE5R\ 6DUNDU  WKH5&RUHWHDP
 7KH :73 VHUYHG DV WKH GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH (DUO\ DQDO\VHV VKRZHG WKDW
SDUWLFLSDQWV JHQHUDOO\ GLG QRW GLIIHUHQWLDWH EHWZHHQ FRXQWU\ RI GHVLJQ DQG FRXQWU\ RI
DVVHPEO\EXWUDWKHUFDUHGSULPDULO\DERXWZKHWKHUDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\ZDVLQYROYHG
LQ WKH RYHUDOO SURGXFW FUHDWLRQ :H WKHUHIRUH FDOFXODWHG WKUHH YDULDEOHV IURP WKH
H[SHULPHQWDOFRQGLWLRQVLQGLFDWLQJWKHLQYROYHPHQWRI&KLQD*HUPDQ\RUWKH8QLWHG


Article IV

States in the process (not involved vs. involved) and added them to the models as
predictors. As a group level variable, the power distance index (PDI; Hofstede,
Hofstede, & Minkov, 2010) was added to capture status-related differences on a
cultural level. Furthermore, the brand awareness and psychometric measures as
outlined in the previous section were included. We formulated random intercept
models of the general form
WTPi ~ N ( j[i ] X i B, y2 ) for i 1,..., n

on the first level and

j N ( 0 1PDI j , 2 ), for j 1,..., J

on the second level, with i representing the observations per group and j representing
the sample group. Relying on random intercept models, we were able to easily control
for level differences and particular country biases. Following the literature, various
models were calculated, but generally a strong and stable effect for the psychometric
variables could not be obtained (cf. Table 1 for an exhaustive example). The restricted
model in Table 2 summarizes the most relevant effects, and Table 3 depicts these
separated for each of the countries. With respect to the country involved in the product
creation process for the advertised original brand car, the involvement of Germany
generally lead to a higher WTP, while the involvement of China and the USA did not
exhibit this effect. However, this particular effect was only true for both low power
distance countries Germany and the United States, while not showing up in the
Chinese sample. Brand awareness proved to be a strong predictor across all different
samples in Study 1a. Participants stating higher awareness scores for the brand in the
advertisement generally displayed a higher WTP.

15

$UWLFOH,9

7DEOH
([KDXVWLYHOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHOIURP6WXG\D
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&

,QWHUFHSW
&KLQDLQYROYHG
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG
86$LQYROYHG
3',
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&(6
%,9$/7
%,9%,2
%,9&21
%,923&
%,96(1
&34&KLQD
&34*HUPDQ\
&3486$
&KLQDLQYROYHG[%,9$/7
&KLQDLQYROYHG[%,9%,2
&KLQDLQYROYHG[%,9&21
&KLQDLQYROYHG[%,923&
&KLQDLQYROYHG[%,96(1
&KLQDLQYROYHG[&(6
&KLQDLQYROYHG[&34&KLQD
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[%,9$/7
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[%,9%,2
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[%,9&21
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[%,923&
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[%,96(1
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[&(6
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[&34*HUPDQ\
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',
86$LQYROYHG[%,9$/7
86$LQYROYHG[%,9%,2
86$LQYROYHG[%,9&21
86$LQYROYHG[%,923&
86$LQYROYHG[%,96(1
86$LQYROYHG[&(6
86$LQYROYHG[&3486$
86$LQYROYHG[3',
3',[%,9$/7
3',[%,9%,2
3',[%,9&21
3',[%,923&
3',[%,96(1
3',[&(6
3',[&34&KLQD
3',[&34*HUPDQ\
3',[&3486$
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',[%,9$/7
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',[%,9%,2
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',[%,9&21
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',[%,923&
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',[%,96(1
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',[&(6
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',[&34&KLQD
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',[%,9$/7
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',[%,9%,2
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',[%,9&21
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',[%,923&
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',[%,96(1
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',[&(6
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',[&34*HUPDQ\
86$LQYROYHG[3',[%,9$/7
86$LQYROYHG[3',[%,9%,2
86$LQYROYHG[3',[%,9&21
86$LQYROYHG[3',[%,923&
86$LQYROYHG[3',[%,96(1
86$LQYROYHG[3',[&(6
86$LQYROYHG[3',[&3486$




E






































































6(






































































W






































































S









































































7KH:73LVSUHGLFWHGIRUDQRULJLQDOFDUEUDQG IURPLQYROYHPHQWRIDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHFDUFUHDWLRQ
SURFHVVEUDQGDZDUHQHVVFRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVP&(6YDULRXVGLPHQVLRQVRIWKHEULHILQYHQWRU\RIYDOXHV
%,9DQGDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\VSURGXFWTXDOLW\&34DVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHSDUWLFLSDQWVDVZHOODVWKH3',DVD
FRXQWU\OHYHOYDULDEOH


$UWLFOH,9

7DEOH
5HVWULFWHGOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHOIURP6WXG\DSUHGLFWLQJWKH:73IRUDQRULJLQDO
FDUEUDQGIURPLQYROYHPHQWRIDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHFDUFUHDWLRQSURFHVV
DQGEUDQGDZDUHQHVVDVZHOODVWKH3',DVDFRXQWU\OHYHOYDULDEOH
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&




E










,QWHUFHSW
&KLQDLQYROYHG
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG
86$LQYROYHG
3',
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',
86$LQYROYHG[3',

6(










W










S











7DEOH
6HSDUDWHOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHOVIRUHDFKRIWKHGLIIHUHQWFRXQWU\VDPSOHVIURP
6WXG\DSUHGLFWLQJWKH:73IRUDQRULJLQDOFDUEUDQGIURPLQYROYHPHQWRID
SDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHFDUFUHDWLRQSURFHVVDQGEUDQGDZDUHQHVV
&KLQD
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&
,QWHUFHSW
&KLQDLQYROYHG
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG
86$LQYROYHG
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV




E






6(






*HUPDQ\

W






S









E






6(






W






86$

S









E






6(






W






S






&RQFOXVLRQ
:LWKUHVSHFWWRWKHK\SRWKHVHV6WXG\DLQGLFDWHVWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVVHOIVWDWHGEUDQG
DZDUHQHVVLVLQGHHGDQLPSRUWDQWGULYHUIRUWKH:73$OVR&22LQIRUPDWLRQH[HUWHG
D VWURQJ HIIHFW RQ WKH :73 DW OHDVW IRU SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG
6WDWHV 7KLV LV LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH OLWHUDWXUH GLVFXVVHG DV ZH FDQ H[SHFW KLJK
FXVWRPHU LQYROYHPHQW IRU EX\LQJ DXWRPRELOHV LQ WKHVH FRXQWULHV DV ZHOO DV HOHYDWHG
EUDQG IDPLOLDULW\ 'XH WR UHDVRQV RI SXEOLF DIIRUGDELOLW\ WKH LQYROYHPHQW PLJKW EH
ORZHU IRU &KLQHVH VWXGHQWV $OVR EUDQG IDPLOLDULW\ DQG GHWDLOHG EUDQG NQRZOHGJH
SDUWLFXODUO\ UHJDUGLQJ IRUHLJQ SUHPLXP EUDQGV LV OLNHO\ WR EH ORZHU VLQFH WKH
DYDLODELOLW\RIVLJQLILFDQWQXPEHUVRIWKHVHFDUVKDVEHHQUHDFKHGRQO\GXULQJWKHODVW


$UWLFOH,9

GHFDGH 7KH VHOHFWLYH DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI *HUPDQ\V LQYROYHPHQW E\ *HUPDQ DQG
$PHULFDQ SDUWLFLSDQWV SRVVLEO\ UHIOHFWV HOHYDWHG EUDQG IDPLOLDULW\ DV WKLV LV WKH
SUHPLXP EUDQGV RULJLQDO KRPH FRXQWU\ +RZHYHU SXWWLQJ IRUZDUG RXU WKHRUHWLFDO
UHDVRQLQJZHIHHOWKDWWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI&22LQIRUPDWLRQLVKLJKO\GHSHQGHQWRQWKH
QDWXUHRIWKHEUDQGDQGWKHUHIRUHKLJKO\FDVHVSHFLILF,Q6WXG\EZHH[FKDQJHGWKH
EUDQG XVHG LQ WKH DGYHUWLVHPHQW H[SHFWLQJ WKDW WKLV ZRXOG DOWHU WKH SDUWLFXODU &22
HIIHFWV
:H FRXOG QRW ILQG DQ\ VWDEOH LQWHUDFWLRQV EHWZHHQ &22 IDFWRUV DQG SV\FKRPHWULF
YDULDEOHV 7KHUH PLJKW EH VHYHUDO UHDVRQV IRU WKLV ILQGLQJ )LUVWO\ RXU VDPSOH VL]H
PLJKWKDYHEHHQWRRVPDOOEXWDFRPSDULVRQZLWKRWKHUVWXGLHVVDPSOHVL]HVUHQGHUV
WKLV DV XQOLNHO\ FI )XQN HW DO  6HFRQGO\ WKH PHQWLRQHG SV\FKRPHWULF
DQWHFHGHQWV DQG PRGHUDWRUV RI &22 PLJKW DV ZHOO EH KLJKO\ FDVH VSHFLILF DQG
GHSHQGHQWRQWKHSDUWLFXODUSXUFKDVHVLWXDWLRQWKHVSHFLILF&22LQIRUPDWLRQDQGWKH
FRXQWULHV LQYROYHG )RU H[DPSOH DUWLFOHV SRLQWLQJ RXW WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI DQLPRVLW\
UDWLQJVXVXDOO\LPSOHPHQWHGVFHQDULRVLQZKLFKSRVVLEO\VWURQJDQLPRVLW\SHUFHSWLRQV
HJGXHWRVHYHUHSROLWLFDOFULVHVZHUHLQYROYHG)XQNHWDO,QRXUH[DPSOH
OLNHZLVHHIIHFWVPLJKWQRWKDYHSOD\HGDUROHDQGSDUWLFLSDQWVSUREDEO\XVHGWKH&22
LQIRUPDWLRQLQLQWHUSOD\ZLWKNQRZOHGJHRQWKHRULJLQDOEUDQGRULJLQRUUHODWHGDVSHFWV
ZKHQPDNLQJWKHLU:73GHFLVLRQ

6WXG\E
7KLVVWXG\ZDVVHWXSVLPLODUWR6WXG\DH[FHSWWKDWWKLVWLPHDILFWLRQDOFDUEUDQG
ZDVXVHGLQVWHDGRIDQRULJLQDOEUDQG7KHLQWHQWLRQZDVWRH[SORUHKRZWKHHIIHFWRI
&22 LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ SDUWLFLSDQWV :73 ZRXOG FKDQJH LQ WKH OLJKW RI WKLV YDULDWLRQ
)URPDFRQFHSWXDOSRLQWRIYLHZWKHSDUWLFLSDQWLQYROYHPHQWVKRXOGQRWDOWHUDVWKH
SURGXFWFDWHJRU\DVZHOODVWKHVFHQDULRDQGWKHDGYHUWLVHPHQWGRQRWFKDQJHODUJHO\
5HDOLVWLFDOO\ EUDQG IDPLOLDULW\ VKRXOG QRW EH JLYHQ ZLWK D ILFWLRQDO EUDQG EXW RI
FRXUVHWKLVGRHVQRWSUHYHQWVRPHSDUWLFLSDQWVIURPIHHOLQJOLNHWKH\NQRZWKHEUDQG
+RZHYHUSDUWLFLSDQWVVKRXOGQRWEHDEOHWRXVHVSHFLILFLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHEUDQGDVLQ
WKH FDVH RI WKH RULJLQDO EUDQG VXFK DV WKH RULJLQDO EUDQG RULJLQ 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZRXOG
MXGJH &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ EDVHG RQ JHQHUDOO\ DSSOLFDEOH NQRZOHGJH VXFK DV JHQHUDO
SURGXFWFRXQWU\TXDOLW\SHUFHSWLRQV



$UWLFOH,9

6DPSOH
7KHSDUWLFLSDQWVDPSOHVIRU6WXG\EZHUHFROOHFWHGLQDQDORJRXVIDVKLRQWR6WXG\D
E\ D PDUNHWLQJ DJHQF\ RU DW D XQLYHUVLW\ FDPSXV 7KLV WLPH  SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH
REWDLQHG IRU WKH &KLQHVH VDPSOH  RI ZKLFK ZHUH IHPDOHV0$JH   6'$JH 
IRUWKH*HUPDQVDPSOHRIZKLFKZHUHIHPDOHV0$JH 6'$JH 
 DQG  IRU WKH $PHULFDQ VDPSOH  RI ZKLFK ZHUH IHPDOHV 0$JH  
6'$JH   3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR WDNH SDUW LQ D FRPSXWHUEDVHG VXUYH\ DQG
SDUWLFLSDQWV H[HUWLQJ FOLFNWKURXJK EHKDYLRU KDYH EHHQ SUHYLRXVO\ H[FOXGHG IURP WKH
GDWD


)LJXUH
([DPSOHVWLPXOXVIURP6WXG\E
3URFHGXUHDQG6WLPXOL
7KHSURFHGXUHLQ6WXG\EIROORZHGFORVHO\WKHSURFHGXUHRI6WXG\DH[FHSWWKDWZH
XVHGDQDGYHUWLVHPHQWIRUDQDUWLILFLDOFDURIDILFWLRQDOFDUEUDQGDQGQRWDQRULJLQDO
EUDQG VHH )LJXUH  IRU DQ H[DPSOH /LNH EHIRUH WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR
LPPHUVH WKHPVHOYHV LQWR D VFHQDULR ZKHUH WKH\ ZDQWHG WR EX\ D QHZ FDU (DFK
SDUWLFLSDQW WKHQ VDZ WKH DGYHUWLVHPHQW DJDLQ GLVSOD\LQJ VRPH JHQHUDO LQIRUPDWLRQ


$UWLFOH,9

DERXW WKH FDU DQG SURYLGLQJ GHWDLOHG LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW WKH FRXQWU\ RI GHVLJQ RI WKH
FDU DQG WKH FRXQWU\ RI DVVHPEO\ 3RVVLEOH FRXQWULHV IRU GHVLJQ RU DVVHPEO\ ZHUH
&KLQD*HUPDQ\DQG8QLWHG6WDWHV$IWHUZDUGVWKHSDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHDVNHGDERXWWKHLU
ZLOOLQJQHVV WR EX\ :73 WKH FDU WKHLU EUDQG DZDUHQHVV DQG WKH SV\FKRPHWULF
YDULDEOHV &RQFHUQLQJ WKH TXDOLW\ SHUFHSWLRQV WKLV WLPH DURXQG ZH DVNHG GLUHFWO\ IRU
FRXQWU\TXDOLW\SHUFHSWLRQVUHODWHGWRFDUVEXWLQDVLPLODUIDVKLRQWR6WXG\D
$QDO\VLVDQGUHVXOWV
7KH GDWD ZDV DQDO\]HG UHO\LQJ RQ WKH PL[HG PRGHOV SURFHGXUH RXWOLQHG LQ 6WXG\ D
$JDLQHIIHFWVRIWKHSV\FKRPHWULF YDULDEOHV DQGTXDOLW\ SHUFHSWLRQVDVZHOODVWKHLU
LQWHUDFWLRQV GLG QRW SURYH VWDEOH DQG ZKHUH WKXV H[FOXGHG IURP WKH ILQDO PRGHO
GHSLFWHGLQ7DEOH)RUWKHDGYHUWLVHGFDURIDILFWLRQDOFDUEUDQGLQ6WXG\EQHLWKHU
WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI *HUPDQ\ QRU WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV H[HUWV D VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RQ WKH
SDUWLFLSDQWV:737KHLQYROYHPHQWRI&KLQDKRZHYHUORZHUVWKH:73VLJQLILFDQWO\
6HSDUDWHPRGHOVIRUHDFKRIWKHFRXQWU\VDPSOHVLQ7DEOHVKRZWKDWWKHRYHUDOOHIIHFW
LVGXHWRWKH*HUPDQVDPSOHZKLOHQRQHRIWKHFRXQWU\LQYROYHPHQWYDULDEOHVVHHPV
WRSOD\DUROHLQWKH&KLQHVHRU$PHULFDQVDPSOH:LWKDQH[FHSWLRQIRUWKH$PHULFDQ
VDPSOH WKH EUDQG DZDUHQHVV VHUYHV DV D JRRG SUHGLFWRU IRU WKH :73 ZLWK KLJKHU
YDOXHVRIEUDQGDZDUHQHVVEHLQJDVVRFLDWHGZLWKKLJKHUYDOXHVRI:73



$UWLFOH,9

7DEOH
/LQHDUPL[HGPRGHOIURP6WXG\ESUHGLFWLQJWKH:73IRUDILFWLRQDOFDUEUDQG
IURPLQYROYHPHQWRIDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHFDUFUHDWLRQSURFHVVDQGEUDQG
DZDUHQHVVDVZHOODVWKH3',DVDFRXQWU\OHYHOYDULDEOH
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&




E










,QWHUFHSW
&KLQDLQYROYHG
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG
86$LQYROYHG
3',
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&KLQDLQYROYHG[3',
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG[3',
86$LQYROYHG[3',

6(










W










S











7DEOH
6HSDUDWHOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHOVIRUHDFKRIWKHGLIIHUHQWFRXQWU\VDPSOHVIURP
6WXG\ESUHGLFWLQJWKH:73IRUDILFWLRQDOFDUEUDQGIURPLQYROYHPHQWRID
SDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHFDUFUHDWLRQSURFHVVDQGEUDQGDZDUHQHVV
&KLQD
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&
,QWHUFHSW
&KLQDLQYROYHG
*HUPDQ\LQYROYHG
86$LQYROYHG
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV




E






6(






*HUPDQ\

W






S









E






6(






W






86$

S









E






6(






W






S






&RQFOXVLRQ
7KH UHVXOWV RI 6WXG\ E VKRZ WKDW WKH XVH RI D ILFWLRQDO EUDQG LQVWHDG RI DQ RULJLQDO
EUDQG LQ WKH DGYHUWLVHPHQW DOWHUV WKH LQIOXHQFH SDWWHUQ RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ
SDUWLFLSDQWV :73 :KLOHWKHLQIOXHQFHSDWWHUQLQ6WXG\ DVXJJHVWVWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWV
DSSUHFLDWH WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI WKH RULJLQDO EUDQGV FRXQWU\ RULJLQ DW OHDVW LQ WKH WZR
FRXQWULHVRIRXUVDPSOHZKHUHZHH[SHFWEUDQGIDPLOLDULW\DQGSXUFKDVHLQWHQWLRQVWR
EH WKH KLJKHVW WKLV SDWWHUQ GRHV QRW VKRZ XS ZLWK WKH ILFWLRQDO EUDQG :KLOH
SDUWLFLSDQWV IURP WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV DQG &KLQD GR QRW VHHP WR FDUH DERXW WKH &22
LQIRUPDWLRQ *HUPDQV UHDFW VHOHFWLYHO\ WRZDUGV WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI &KLQD LQ WKH
PDQQHU WKDW LWV LQYROYHPHQW ORZHUV WKHLU :73 WKH FDU 2QH FRXOG RQO\ VSHFXODWH IRU


$UWLFOH,9

WKH UHDVRQV RI WKLV ILQGLQJ +RZHYHU LW FDQ LOOXVWUDWH QLFHO\ WKH KLJK YDULDELOLW\
FRQFHUQLQJ &22 HIIHFWV SRVVLEO\ UHVXOWLQJ IURP FXOWXUDO YDULDWLRQV DQG VLWXDWLRQDO
IDFWRUV SRVVLEO\ LQYROYLQJ FXVWRPHU LQYROYHPHQW SURGXFW IDPLOLDULW\ DQG VSHFLILF
DWWLWXGHVDQGEHOLHIV
%UDQG DZDUHQHVV SURYHG WR EH DQ LPSRUWDQW SUHGLFWRU IRU WKH ZLOOLQJQHVV SXUFKDVH
PHDVXUHLQERWK6WXG\DDQG6WXG\ELUUHVSHFWLYHRIZKHWKHUWKHSDUWLFXODUHIIHFWRI
&22LQIRUPDWLRQVKRZHGVWDWLVWLFDOVLJQLILFDQFHRUQRW7KLVVXSSRUWVRXUYLHZ+
WKDWFXVWRPHUVVXEMHFWLYHEUDQGDZDUHQHVVSDUWLFXODUO\LQUHDOOLIHGHFLVLRQVLWXDWLRQV
LVDPRUHUHOLDEOHDQGWKHUHIRUHPRUHLPSRUWDQWSUHGLFWRUIRUFXVWRPHUV:73WKDQ
IRUH[DPSOH&22LQIRUPDWLRQZKLFKLVOLNHO\WRH[HUWVLWXDWLRQDOYDULDEOHHIIHFWV
&RQFHUQLQJ WKH RWKHU K\SRWKHVHV +D DQG +E 6WXG\ D DQG 6WXG\ E OHQG ZHDN
VXSSRUW WR WKH QRWLRQ WKDW LQFUHDVHG FXVWRPHU LQYROYHPHQW DQG LQFUHDVHG EUDQG
IDPLOLDULW\HOHYDWHWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI&22LQIRUPDWLRQIRUWKHSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQ:H
H[SHFWHG WKH SDUWLFLSDQW LQYROYHPHQW WR YDU\ EHWZHHQ (DVWHUQ DQG :HVWHUQ FRXQWULHV
RIRXUVDPSOHDQGIRXQGHIIHFWVWKDWSRLQWHGLQWRWKHH[SHFWHGGLUHFWLRQ+RZHYHUZH
GLG QRW PHDVXUH SDUWLFLSDQW LQYROYHPHQW GLUHFWO\ QRU GLG ZH WHVW SURGXFW FDWHJRULHV
ZKLFKZRXOGUHVXOWLQGLIIHUHQWFXVWRPHULQYROYHPHQW)DPLOLDULW\ZLWKWKHEUDQGZDV
WHVWHGE\UXQQLQJWKHVDPHGHVLJQZLWKDUHDOEUDQGYVDILFWLRQDOEUDQG7KHLQIOXHQFH
SDWWHUQFKDQJHGZLWKWKHIDPLOLDULW\EXWDGLUHFWGHFLVLRQRQRXUK\SRWKHVLVLVKDUGO\
SRVVLEOH$VDWHQGHQF\ZHFDQVHHWKDWWZRRIRXUWKUHHVDPSOHJURXSVUHO\RQ&22
LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU WKH UHDO EUDQG VWXG\ ZKLOH RQO\ RQH VDPSOH JURXS UHOLHV RQ &22
LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH ILFWLRQDO EUDQG JURXSV 7KLV REVHUYDWLRQ LV LQ OLQH ZLWK ZKDW ZDV
H[SHFWHGEXWDOVRVXJJHVWVKLJKFRXQWU\VSHFLILFYDULDWLRQ$VHFRQGVWXG\ZDVVHWXS
WRWHVWRXUSURSRVLWLRQVIXUWKHU
6WXG\
7KH DLPV RI 6WXG\  ZHUH WR UHSOLFDWH WKH ILQGLQJV IURP 6WXG\  ZLWK RWKHU SURGXFW
FDWHJRULHVDQGLQDVOLJKWO\GLIIHUHQWVHWWLQJ$VEHIRUHDVFHQDULRWHFKQLTXHZDVUHOLHG
RQ WR DVVHVV SDUWLFLSDQWV :73 LQ YDULRXV EX\LQJ VLWXDWLRQV :H KHUHE\ UHOLHG RQ
FRQVSLFXRXVO\FRQVXPHGSUHPLXPRUOX[XU\ JRRGVDV OLWHUDWXUHVXJJHVWHGWKDW&22
LQIRUPDWLRQ ZDV PRUH LPSRUWDQW IRU WKHVH SURGXFWV WKDQ IRU H[DPSOH IRU QRQ
FRQVSLFXRXVO\FRQVXPHGJRRGVFI3LURQ



$UWLFOH,9

,Q 6WXG\  WKH VWURQJHVW &22 HIIHFWV ZHUH REVHUYHG IRU WKH *HUPDQ VDPSOH ZKLFK
KDSSHQHGWREHWKHEUDQGRULJLQFRXQWU\IRUWKHRULJLQDODXWRPRELOHPDQXIDFWXUHUDV
ZHOODVEHLQJDFRXQWU\WKDWLVKLJKO\DVVRFLDWHGZLWKFDUVSHUVH7KLVOHDGVWRDVOLJKW
DV\PPHWU\ LQ WKH GHVLJQ DQG 6WXG\  ZDV DOVR VHW XS WR GLVHQWDQJOH WKLV RYHUODS
/LWHUDWXUHVKRZVWKDWERWKDSURGXFWVKRPHFRXQWU\DVZHOODVWKHFXVWRPHUVFRXQWU\
FDQ ERWK XQIROG &22 HIIHFWV EXW ZKLOH WKH ILUVW RQH ZRXOG EH GULYHQ E\ SURGXFW
FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKH ODWWHU ZRXOG GHSHQG ODUJHO\ RQ SDUWLFLSDQW EHOLHIV VXFK DV
FRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVP3UHYLRXVUHVHDUFKKDVLGHQWLILHGFRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVPWR
EH D VWURQJ PRGHUDWRU IRU &22 HIIHFWV WKDW UHVXOW IURP WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI WKH
FXVWRPHUV KRPH FRXQWU\ )XQN HW DO  ,Q RXU SHUFHSWLRQ RI FXUUHQW HFRQRPLF
GHYHORSPHQWV ZH IHHO WKDW WKLV GLVWLQFWLRQ LV RI HOHYDWHG SUDFWLFDO UHOHYDQFH IRU
SUHPLXP EUDQGV ZLWK JOREDO SUHVHQFH 7KHUHIRUH WKH &22 PDQLSXODWLRQ WKLV WLPH
FRQVLVWHG RI WZR FRQGLWLRQV HLWKHU LQYROYLQJ WKH FXVWRPHUV RZQ FRXQWU\ RU WKH
FRXQWU\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH RULJLQDO EUDQG DQG SURGXFW :H SURSRVH WKH IROORZLQJ
K\SRWKHVLV
+ )RU FXVWRPHUV ZLWK KLJK FXVWRPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP EHOLHIV &22
LQIRUPDWLRQVWDWLQJWKHLQYROYHPHQWRIWKHFXVWRPHUVRZQFRXQWU\
ZLOO UHVXOW LQ KLJKHU :73 PHDVXUHV )RU DOO RWKHU SDUWLFLSDQWV WKH
EUDQGV RULJLQDO FRXQWU\ ZLOO EH DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK KLJKHU :73
VWDWHPHQWV
7KH OX[XU\ SURGXFWV ZHUH VHOHFWHG FDUHIXOO\ WR HQVXUH WKDW QR SURGXFW ZDV LQFOXGHG
WKDW ZDV VWURQJO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK SURGXFWV RU EUDQGV IURP RQH RI WKH FXVWRPHU
FRXQWULHV&KLQD*HUPDQ\RUWKH8QLWHG6WDWHV:HLQFOXGHGWKHSURGXFWFDWHJRULHV
:LQH DQG &KURQRJUDSKV ERWK RI ZKLFK DUH VDLG WR HOLFLW VWURQJ SURGXFWFRXQWU\
DVVRFLDWLRQVQDPHO\)UDQFHDQG6ZLW]HUODQG&ORWKLQJFRDWVZHUHLQFOXGHGDVGLUHFW
FRXQWU\ DVVRFLDWLRQV DUH TXLWH XQFOHDU LQ WKLV FDVH $ VPDOOVDPSOH SUHWHVW ZLWK
VWXGHQWV VKRZHG WKDW WKH\ UDQNHG WKHLU IHHOLQJ RI EHLQJ LQYROYHG ZLWK WKH VKRSSLQJ
VFHQDULRV EHVW IRU FORWKLQJ WKHQ ZDWFKHV DQG ZRUVW IRU ZLQH %UDQG IDPLOLDULW\ ZDV
DJDLQ PDQLSXODWHG E\ XVLQJ RULJLQDO EUDQGV YV ILFWLRQDO EUDQGV EXW DJDLQ FDQQRW EH
WKRXJKW RI DV SHUIHFWO\ LQGHSHQGHQW IURP LQYROYHPHQW DV VWXGHQWV VWDWHG WKDW WKHLU
IDPLOLDULW\ ZLWK EUDQGV ZRXOG EH KLJKHVW LQ DUHDV RI KLJKHVW LQYROYHPHQW 7R SDUWO\
FRQWURO IRU WKLV ZH LQWHQGHG WR YDU\ WKH GHJUHH RI SRSXODULW\ RI WKH RULJLQDO EUDQGV
)RUWKHFKURQRJUDSKZHFKRVHDWUDGLWLRQDO6ZLVVPDQXIDFWXUHUDQGIRUWKHZLQHZH



$UWLFOH,9

FKRVHDWUDGLWLRQDO)UHQFKSURGXFHU$VDFRQWUDVWZHFKRVHDQHZFRPHUEUDQGIURP
+RQJ.RQJIRUWKHFORWKLQJVFHQDULR
6DPSOH
7KH SDUWLFLSDQW VDPSOHV IRU 6WXG\  ZHUH FROOHFWHG WRJHWKHU ZLWK 6WXG\ E E\ D
PDUNHWLQJ DJHQF\ RU DW D XQLYHUVLW\ FDPSXV  SDUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH REWDLQHG IRU WKH
&KLQHVHVDPSOHRIZKLFKZHUHIHPDOHV0$JH 6'$JH IRUWKH
*HUPDQVDPSOHRIZKLFKZHUHIHPDOHV0$JH 6'$JH DQGIRU
WKH $PHULFDQ VDPSOH  RI ZKLFK ZHUH IHPDOHV 0$JH   6'$JH  
3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH DVNHG WR WDNH SDUW LQ D FRPSXWHUEDVHG VXUYH\ DQG SDUWLFLSDQWV
H[HUWLQJFOLFNWKURXJKEHKDYLRUKDYHEHHQSUHYLRXVO\H[FOXGHGIURPWKHGDWD
3URFHGXUHDQGVWLPXOL
,Q6WXG\SDUWLFLSDQWVZHUHVKRZQWKUHHDGYHUWLVHPHQWVIRUGLIIHUHQWOX[XU\SURGXFW
FDWHJRULHV DQG UHODWHG TXHVWLRQV LQ FRQVHFXWLYH RUGHU (DFK DGYHUWLVHPHQW H[LVWHG LQ
YDULRXV FRPELQDWLRQV WKH EUDQG RI WKH SURGXFW GLVSOD\HG ZDV HLWKHU DQ RULJLQDO RU D
ILFWLRQDO EUDQG DQG WKH &22 ZDV HLWKHU WKH FRXQWU\ RI WKH FXVWRPHUSDUWLFLSDQW RU D
FRXQWU\ WUDGLWLRQDOO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH SURGXFW FDWHJRU\ 5HO\LQJ RQ D EHWZHHQ
VXEMHFWV GHVLJQ HDFK SDUWLFLSDQW ZDV SUHVHQWHG RQO\ RQH DGYHUWLVHPHQW IURP HDFK
SURGXFWFDWHJRU\LQDUDQGRPIDVKLRQ7KHILUVWSURGXFWDGYHUWLVHGZDVDFKURQRJUDSK
RULJLQDOO\IURP6ZLW]HUODQGDSURGXFWFDWHJRU\ZKHUHOX[XU\EUDQGVDUHXVXDOO\YHU\
ZHOO NQRZQ WR JHQHUDO SXEOLF DQG XVXDOO\ KLJKO\ DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH RULJLQ FRXQWU\
6ZLW]HUODQG 7KH VHFRQG DGYHUWLVHPHQW ZDV IRU D FRDW E\ D QHZFRPHU SUHPLXP
IDVKLRQODEHORULJLQDOO\IURP+RQJ.RQJ:HQHLWKHUH[SHFWHGXVXDOSDUWLFLSDQWVWR
NQRZ WKH RULJLQDO IDVKLRQ ODEHO QRU WR DVVRFLDWH IDVKLRQ ODEHOV WUDGLWLRQDOO\ ZLWK
&KLQD )LQDOO\ SDUWLFLSDQWV VDZ DQ DGYHUWLVHPHQW IRU SUHPLXP ZLQH RULJLQDOO\ IURP
)UDQFH :H H[SHFWHG WKH JHQHUDO SXEOLF WR DVVRFLDWH SUHPLXP ZLQH VWURQJO\ ZLWK
)UDQFH ZKHUHDV WKH RULJLQDO EUDQG ZRXOG QRW EH YHU\ ZHOO NQRZQ 3DUWLFLSDQWV ZHUH
DVNHG WR LPPHUVH WKHPVHOYHV LQ D VFHQDULR ZKHUH WKH\ ZDQWHG WR EX\ WKH SDUWLFXODU
SURGXFWEHIRUHVHHLQJWKHDGYHUWLVHPHQWDQGZHUHDVNHGDERXWWKHLUZLOOLQJQHVVWREX\
WKH SURGXFW :73 DV ZHOO DV WKHLU DZDUHQHVV RI WKH EUDQG DIWHUZDUGV ,Q DGGLWLRQ
FRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVPZDVVXUYH\HG



$UWLFOH,9

$QDO\VLVDQGUHVXOWV
7KHDQDO\VLVUHOLHGRQDOLQHDUPL[HGPRGHOIUDPHZRUNVLPLODUWR6WXG\D6HSDUDWH
PRGHOV IRU HDFK RI WKH SURGXFW FDWHJRULHV DQG FRXQWU\ VDPSOHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG 7KH
:73 VHUYHG DV D GHSHQGHQW YDULDEOH ZKLOH SUHGLFWRUV ZHUH WKH EUDQG RULJLQDO YV
ILFWLRQDO WKH &22 FRXQWU\ RI WKH RULJLQDO SURGXFW YV FRXQWU\ RI WKH FXVWRPHU
UHSRUWHG EUDQG DZDUHQHVV DQG VHOIVWDWHG FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP ,QWHUDFWLRQV ZHUH
LQFOXGHG IRU &22 ZLWK FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP DV ZHOO DV EUDQG ZLWK EUDQG
DZDUHQHVV7KHVWDWLVWLFDO PRGHOVDUHGHSLFWHGLQ7DEOHIRUWKHFRDWLQ7DEOHIRU
WKH FKURQRJUDSK VFHQDULR DQG LQ 7DEOH  IRU WKH ZLQH 2QO\ WKH YDULDEOH EUDQG
DZDUHQHVVH[HUWHGDFRQVWDQWO\KLJKDQGSRVLWLYHVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWRQWKHSDUWLFLSDQWV
:73 DFURVV DOO VDPSOHV DQG FRQGLWLRQV SV   &RQFHUQLQJ DOO RWKHU SUHGLFWRUV
FRQVLGHUDEOH YDULDWLRQ RFFXUUHG ZLWKLQ WKH GDWD VHWV 1RQH RI WKHVH SUHGLFWRUV JDLQHG
VLJQLILFDQFHLQWKHFRDWVFHQDULR7DEOH
7DEOH
/LQHDUPL[HGPRGHOVIURP6WXG\SUHGLFWLQJWKH:73IRUDFRDWIURP
LQYROYHPHQWRIDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHSURGXFWFUHDWLRQSURFHVVFRQVXPHU
HWKQRFHQWULVPDQGEUDQGDZDUHQHVV
&KLQD
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&
,QWHUFHSW
)LFWLRQDOEUDQG
&XVWRPHU&22
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&(6
)LFWLRQDOEUDQG[%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&XVWRPHU&22[&(6




E








6(








*HUPDQ\

W








S











E








&(6 &RQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVP

6(








W








86$

S











E








6(








W








S








,Q WKH *HUPDQ VDPSOH RI WKH FKURQRJUDSK VFHQDULR 7DEOH  D VWURQJ DQG KLJKO\
VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW IRU FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP ZDV IRXQG EHVLGHV D EUDQG DZDUHQHVV
HIIHFW ZKLFK ZDV OHVV SURQRXQFHG WKDQ LQ WKH RWKHU VWDWLVWLFDO H[DPLQDWLRQV )RU WKH
&KLQHVH DQG WKH 86 VDPSOH DJDLQ RQO\ WKH EUDQG DZDUHQHVV H[HUWHG VLJQLILFDQW
HIIHFWV



$UWLFOH,9

7DEOH
/LQHDUPL[HGPRGHOVIURP6WXG\SUHGLFWLQJWKH:73IRUDFKURQRJUDSKIURP
LQYROYHPHQWRIDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHSURGXFWFUHDWLRQSURFHVVFRQVXPHU
HWKQRFHQWULVPDQGEUDQGDZDUHQHVV
&KLQD
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&
,QWHUFHSW
)LFWLRQDOEUDQG
&XVWRPHU&22
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&(6
)LFWLRQDOEUDQG[%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&XVWRPHU&22[&(6




E








6(








*HUPDQ\

W








S











E








6(








W








86$

S











E








6(








W








S








&(6 &RQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVP

7KHZLQHVFHQDULRUHVXOWHGLQODUJHO\DOWHUHGSDWWHUQV%UDQGDZDUHQHVVDJDLQSURYHG
WREHKLJKO\VLJQLILFDQWDFURVVDOOVDPSOHV+RZHYHUIRUWKH&KLQHVHDQGWKH*HUPDQ
VDPSOHVHIIHFWVIRU&22FRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVPDVZHOODVWKHLULQWHUDFWLRQFRXOGEH
REVHUYHG SV   ,Q WKH &KLQHVH VDPSOH PDUJLQDO HIIHFWV IRU &22 DQG WKH
LQWHUDFWLRQ EHWZHHQ &22 DQG FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP FRXOG EH IRXQG ZKLOH
FRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVPLWVHOIZDVYHU\VLJQLILFDQWS ,QWKH*HUPDQVDPSOH
VWURQJVLJQLILFDQWHIIHFWVFRXOGEHREVHUYHGIRU&22DQGWKHLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQ&22
DQG FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP S   ZKLOH FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP LWVHOI GLG QRW
SURYHVLJQLILFDQW,QERWKFDVHVWKHPDLQHIIHFWIRUWKHLQYROYHPHQWRIWKHFXVWRPHUV
FRXQWU\OHDGWRDGHFUHDVHG:736WLOOWKHLQWHUDFWLRQWHUPVKRZHGWKDWWKLVHIIHFWZDV
GLPLQLVKHGIRUSDUWLFLSDQWVUDQNLQJKLJKHURQWKHFXVWRPHUHWKQRFHQWULVPVFDOH1RQH
RIWKHRWKHUSUHGLFWRUVJDLQHGVLJQLILFDQFHLQWKH86VDPSOHZLWKWKHZLQHVFHQDULR
7DEOH
/LQHDUPL[HGPRGHOVIURP6WXG\SUHGLFWLQJWKH:73IRUDERWWOHRIZLQHIURP
LQYROYHPHQWRIDSDUWLFXODUFRXQWU\LQWKHSURGXFWFUHDWLRQSURFHVVFRQVXPHU
HWKQRFHQWULVPDQGEUDQGDZDUHQHVV
&KLQD
/RJ/LNHOLKRRG
$,&
%,&
,QWHUFHSW
)LFWLRQDOEUDQG
&XVWRPHU&22
%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&(6
)LFWLRQDOEUDQG[%UDQGDZDUHQHVV
&XVWRPHU&22[&(6




E








6(








*HUPDQ\

W








S











E








&(6 &RQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVP

6(








W








86$

S











E








6(








W








S








,Q DGGLWLRQ :HOFKV WWHVWV IRU LQGHSHQGHQW VDPSOHV ZHUH FDOFXODWHG WR DVVHVV EUDQG
DZDUHQHVVGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKHILFWLRQDOEUDQGDQGRULJLQDOEUDQGFRQGLWLRQV,QWKH
ZLQH FRQGLWLRQ WKH RULJLQDO EUDQG 0   6'   DFKLHYHG D VLJQLILFDQWO\


$UWLFOH,9

KLJKHU EUDQG DZDUHQHVV UDWLQJ WKDQ WKH ILFWLRQDO EUDQG 0   6'   ZLWK
W   S   ,Q WKH ZDWFK VFHQDULR OLNHZLVH D VLJQLILFDQW GLIIHUHQFH
EHWZHHQWKHRULJLQDOEUDQG0 6' DQGWKHILFWLRQDOEUDQG0 
6'   HPHUJHG ZLWK W   S   1R GLIIHUHQFH EHWZHHQ WKH
RULJLQDO EUDQG 0   6'   DQG WKH ILFWLRQDO EUDQG 0   6'  
FRQGLWLRQVZHUHREVHUYHGZLWKWKHFRDWVFHQDULRZLWKW S 
)LQDOO\ZHFDOFXODWHGVHSDUDWHPRGHOVIRURULJLQDOEUDQGVDQGILFWLRQDOEUDQGVLQFDVH
RIWKHVFHQDULRVZKHUHDZDUHQHVVGLIIHUHQFHVKDGEHHQIRXQG+RZHYHUZHFRXOGILQG
QHLWKHU &22 HIIHFWV QRU DQ\ UHVSHFWLYH GLIIHUHQFHV EHWZHHQ WKH JURXSV VR WKH\ DUH
QRWUHSRUWHGKHUHIRUWKHVDNHRIEUHYLW\
&RQFOXVLRQ
6WXG\OHQGVVWURQJVXSSRUWIRUK\SRWKHVLV+VKRZLQJWKDWSDUWLFLSDQWVVHOIVWDWHG
:73 LV LQIOXHQFHG KHDYLO\ E\ WKHLU SHUFHLYHG EUDQG DZDUHQHVV 3DUWLFXODUO\ LQ
FRPSDULVRQWR&22LQIRUPDWLRQSDUWLFLSDQWVVWDWHGEUDQGDZDUHQHVVSURYHGWREHDQ
LPSRUWDQW SUHGLFWRU DFURVV WKH ZKROH GDWD VHW &22 HIIHFWV RQ WKH FRQWUDU\ ZKLOH
XQGHQLDEO\RILPSRUWDQFHLQWZRRIWKHQLQHFRQGLWLRQVVKRZHGKLJKHUYDULDELOLW\,Q
DFFRUGDQFHZLWKWKHOLWHUDWXUHWKHYDULRXVSURGXFWFRQGLWLRQVDQGSDUWLFLSDQWVDPSOHV
VXJJHVW D KLJK YDULDELOLW\ FRQFHUQLQJ WKH HIIHFW RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ SXUFKDVH
GHFLVLRQVZKLFKLVOLNHO\WREHGHSHQGHQWRQSURGXFWFDWHJRU\FXOWXUDOEDFNJURXQGRI
WKH FXVWRPHUV DQG RWKHU YDULDEOHV ,Q RXU VWXG\ VHOIVWDWHG EUDQG DZDUHQHVV DV D
PHDVXUH IRU VHOISHUFHLYHG EUDQG NQRZOHGJH SURYHG WR EH D PRUH VWDEOH DQG UHOLDEOH
SUHGLFWRU
5HJDUGLQJ K\SRWKHVLV +D 6WXG\  FRXOG QRW DIILUP RXU QRWLRQ WKDW FXVWRPHU
LQYROYHPHQW VHHPV WR LQFUHDVH WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ DV &22 HIIHFWV
ZHUH RQO\ IRXQG LQ WKH ZLQH VFHQDULR ZKLFK ZH H[SHFWHG WR SURYRNH WKH ORZHVW
SDUWLFLSDQW LQYROYHPHQW LQ RXU VWXGHQW VDPSOHV 0RUHRYHU 6WXG\  FRXOG QRW
DFFXPXODWHHYLGHQFHIRUK\SRWKHVLV+EDVQRSDUWLFXODUGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQRULJLQDO
EUDQGDQGILFWLRQDOEUDQGFRQGLWLRQVFRXOGEHREVHUYHG
*HQHUDOO\VHYHUHSUREOHPVLQHVWDEOLVKLQJFRQVLVWHQW&22LQIRUPDWLRQUHODWHGHIIHFWV
RQ :73 PHDVXUHVZHUHHQFRXQWHUHG LQ6WXG\ DFURVVDOOFRQGLWLRQVDQGWKHUHIRUH
VXSSRUW IRU K\SRWKHVLV + PXVW DOVR EH FRQVLGHUHG ZHDN +RZHYHU DW OHDVW IRU WKH
&KLQHVHDQGWKH*HUPDQVDPSOHLQWKHZLQHVFHQDULRWKHSUHGLFWHGHIIHFWVZHUHIRXQG


$UWLFOH,9

+HUH D JHQHUDO WHQGHQF\ H[LVWHG WR UHSRUW D VWURQJHU SXUFKDVH LQWHQWLRQ ZKHQ WKH
RULJLQDO SURGXFW FRXQWU\ )UDQFH LQ WKH FDVH RI ZLQH ZDV VWDWHG WR EH LQYROYHG )RU
SDUWLFLSDQWV UHSRUWLQJ KLJKHU YDOXHV RQ WKH FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP VFDOH WKLV HIIHFW
ZDV GLPLQLVKHG DV KLJKHU HWKQRFHQWULVP VFRUHV OHG WR D KLJKHU DSSUHFLDWLRQ RI WKH
LQYROYHPHQWRIWKHFRQVXPHUVRZQFRXQWU\
6RPHILQDOZRUGVDUHZRUWKPHQWLRQLQJDERXWWKHEUDQGDZDUHQHVVPHDVXUHVLQ6WXG\
2XUUHVXOWVLQGLFDWHWKDWVHOIVWDWHGEUDQGDZDUHQHVVLVDUHOLDEOHSUHGLFWRUIRU:73
DFURVVDOOFRQGLWLRQVDQGVDPSOH JURXSV DQGZLWKRXWGLIIHUHQFHEHWZHHQWKHRULJLQDO
EUDQG DQG ILFWLRQDO EUDQG FRQGLWLRQV 2I FRXUVH WKLV GRHV QRW PHDQ WKDW EUDQG
DZDUHQHVV LV HTXDOO\ SURQRXQFHG LQ WKHVH FRQGLWLRQV EXW UDWKHU PHDQV WKDW LWV HIIHFW
VWD\VFRQVWDQWDVLVLQGLFDWHGE\WKHQRQVLJQLILFDQWLQWHUDFWLRQEHWZHHQEUDQGW\SHDQG
EUDQG DZDUHQHVV )RU FKURQRJUDSKV DQG ZLQH SDUWLFLSDQWV VHOIUHSRUWHG EUDQG
DZDUHQHVV ZDV KLJKHU IRU WKH RULJLQDO EUDQGV UHIOHFWLQJ LQGHHG KLJKHU SURGXFW
NQRZOHGJHIRUWKHWUDGLWLRQDOEUDQGVXVHGLQRXUVFHQDULR1RGLIIHUHQFHZDVIRXQGIRU
WKH FORWKLQJ VFHQDULR ZKLFK FDQ EH SDUWO\ DVFULEHG WR WKH ORZ GHJUHH RI EUDQG
DZDUHQHVVOHYHORIWKHQHZFRPHUEUDQGXVHG

*HQHUDOGLVFXVVLRQ
7KHRUHWLFDOLPSOLFDWLRQV
,Q RXU VWXGLHV ZH DLPHG WR XQGHUVWDQG FXVWRPHUV EX\LQJ EHKDYLRU IRU JOREDOO\
PDQXIDFWXUHG SURGXFWV IURP D FURVVFXOWXUDO SHUVSHFWLYH UHO\LQJ RQ SDUWLFLSDQW
VDPSOHV IURP &KLQD *HUPDQ\ DQG WKH 8QLWHG 6WDWHV :KLOH JHQHUDOO\ EXLOGLQJ RQ
WUDGLWLRQDOOLWHUDWXUHRQWKH&22SKHQRPHQRQZHLPSOHPHQWHGUHVHDUFKGHVLJQVWKDW
ZRXOGKHOSXVWRHYDOXDWHWKHLPSRUWDQFHRI&22LQIRUPDWLRQLQLQWHUSOD\ ZLWKVHOI
VWDWHG EUDQG DZDUHQHVV 7KH PRWLYDWLRQ WR GR WKLV ZDV QRXULVKHG E\ WKH RQJRLQJ
GLVFXVVLRQ RQ WKH SUDFWLFDO UHOHYDQFH RI WKH &22 FRQFHSW FI 3KDUU  :KLOH
HDUOLHUUHVHDUFKJHQHUDOO\ DJUHHVRQWKHLPSRUWDQFHDQGUHOHYDQFHRI&22HIIHFWVRQ
SURGXFWHYDOXDWLRQVEDVHGRQTXDOLW\ SHUFHSWLRQVHIIHFWVVRPHWLPHVZHUHUHSRUWHGWR
EH ODUJHO\ GLPLQLVKHG LQ PRUH UHDOLVWLF SXUFKDVH VLWXDWLRQV $ VWUDLJKWIRUZDUG
UHDVRQLQJ IRU WKLV FRQVLGHUV &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ DV D VLQJOH GULYHU RI UDWKHU PLQRU
LPSRUWDQFH IRU FXVWRPHUV SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV DV FRPSDUHG WR RWKHU GULYHUV VXFK DV
EUDQG NQRZOHGJH SURGXFW H[SHULHQFH DQG SULFH .HOOHU  $OVR YDULRXV


$UWLFOH,9

PRGHUDWRUV KDYH EHHQ GLVFXVVHG WKDW ZRXOG LQIOXHQFH &22 HIIHFWV VXFK DV SURGXFW
FDWHJRU\SDUWLFLSDQWLQYROYHPHQWFRQVXPHUHWKQRFHQWULVPDQGPDQ\PRUH$VIDUDV
ZH NQRZ UHVHDUFK LPSOHPHQWLQJ PRUH UHDOLVWLF SXUFKDVH VFHQDULRV WR GDWH KDV QRW
WULHGWRFRQWUDVWWKHVHYDU\LQJLQIOXHQFHIDFWRUVDQGRXUVWXGLHVZHUHVHWXSWRWDNHD
ILUVWVWHSLQWRWKLVGLUHFWLRQ
:HDVNHGSDUWLFLSDQWV WRLPPHUVHWKHPVHOYHVLQWRVKRSSLQJVLWXDWLRQVIRUJRRGV OLNH
FDUV FKURQRJUDSKV FORWKLQJ DQG ZLQH DQG ZH DOVR H[SHULHQFHG D KLJK GHJUHH RI
YDULDELOLW\ LQ WKH REVHUYHG &22 HIIHFWV ZKLFK LV LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK SDUWV RI WKH
UHYLHZHGOLWHUDWXUH:KLOH&22HIIHFWVZHUHFOHDUO\YLVLEOHLQDWOHDVWVRPHVDPSOHV
LQ WKH SURGXFW VFHQDULRV IRU FDUV DQG ZLQH WKH\ ZHUH DEVHQW DFURVV DOO SDUWLFLSDQW
JURXSV LQ WKH VFHQDULRV IRU FORWKLQJ DQG ZDWFKHV *HQHUDOO\ WKH SUHGLFWLRQ RI &22
LPSRUWDQFH IURP SURGXFW IDPLOLDULW\ RSHUDWLRQDOL]HG ZLWK RULJLQDO EUDQGV DQG
H[SHFWHG SDUWLFLSDQW LQYROYHPHQW SURYHG WR EH SDUWLFXODUO\ GLIILFXOW LI QRW WR VD\
XQVXFFHVVIXO7KH&22HIIHFWVDFWXDOO\REVHUYHGLQRXUVWXGLHVKRZHYHUGRQRWVHHP
WR EH XQUHDVRQDEOH EXW HYHQ ZLWK KLQGVLJKW ZH KDYH GLIILFXOWLHV H[SODLQLQJ ZK\ WKH
REVHUYHG HIIHFWV RFFXUUHG ZLWK VRPH VFHQDULRV DQG VDPSOHV DQG QRW LQ WKH RWKHUV ,Q
WKH ZLQH VFHQDULR &KLQHVH DQG *HUPDQ FXVWRPHUV REYLRXVO\ ZHUH GULYHQ E\ WKH
SURGXFWFRXQWU\DVVRFLDWLRQRIZLQHDQG)UDQFHDQGRQO\SDUWLFLSDQWVVFRULQJKLJKRQ
FRQVXPHU HWKQRFHQWULVP VKRZHG HOHYDWHG DSSUHFLDWLRQ IRU WKHLU RZQ FRXQWU\
LQYROYHPHQW7KH&22HIIHFWIRUFDUVZLWKWKHRULJLQDO*HUPDQDXWRPRELOHEUDQGRQO\
VKRZHG XS IRU *HUPDQV DQG $PHULFDQV ERWK SDUWLFXODUO\ DSSUHFLDWLQJ WKH
LQYROYHPHQW RI *HUPDQ\ WKH KRPH FRXQWU\ RI WKH DGYHUWLVHG EUDQG 7KLV FRXOG EH
LQWHUSUHWHG DV D SUHGRPLQDQWO\ SURQRXQFHG EUDQGFRXQWU\ DVVRFLDWLRQ LQ WKHVH
FRXQWULHVDQLPDJHWKDWLVDFWLYHO\FXOWLYDWHGE\WKHFDUPDQXIDFWXUHUDQGWKDWPLJKW
QRW KDYH PDGH LWV ZD\ WR &KLQD )LQDOO\ RQO\ *HUPDQV GHYDOXH WKH LQYROYHPHQW RI
&KLQDLQWKHILFWLRQDOFDUEUDQGVFHQDULRDQGPD\EHFORVHO\UHODWHGWRWKHFXOWLYDWHG
EUDQGLPDJHUHVXOWLQJLQDVSHFLILF*HUPDQIHDURI&KLQHVHPDUNHWSUHVHQFH
%UDQGDZDUHQHVVZKLFKZHPHDVXUHGUHO\LQJRQSDUWLFLSDQWVVHOIDVVHVVPHQWRQWKH
RWKHU KDQG SURYHG WR EH D UHOLDEOH DQG SHUVLVWHQW SUHGLFWRU DFURVV DOO VFHQDULRV
LQYHVWLJDWHGDQGIRUDOPRVWDOOSDUWLFLSDQWVDPSOHV([FHSWIRUWKH$PHULFDQVDPSOHLQ
WKHILFWLRQDOFDUEUDQGFRQGLWLRQ6WXG\EWKHEUDQGDZDUHQHVVPHDVXUHVKRZHGXS
DVDVLJQLILFDQWFRHIILFLHQWXVXDOO\RIFRQVLGHUDEO\KLJKPDJQLWXGH7KLVREVHUYDWLRQ
DOVR KROGV WUXH LQ WKH FRQGLWLRQV ZKHUH ZH REVHUYHG WKH JLYHQ &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ WR
LQIOXHQFH WKH SDUWLFLSDQWV VWDWHG :73 WKH OHYHOV RI SRVVLEOH H[SUHVVLRQV RI HDFK


$UWLFOH,9

YDULDEOH KDYH WR EH FRQVLGHUHG KHUH ,Q RXU UHDGLQJ WKLV HYLGHQFH SURYLGHV
FRQVLGHUDEOH VXSSRUW IRU WKH FULWLTXH WKDW KDV EHHQ UDLVHG WRZDUGV WKH SUDFWLFDO
UHOHYDQFH RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ UHDO SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV 2Q WKH RWKHU KDQG WKH
UHVXOWVGRQRWGHQ\WKDWWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQPD\LQVRPHFDVHVEHWDNHQLQWRDFFRXQWE\
FXVWRPHUV ZKLOH PDNLQJ WKHLU EX\LQJ GHFLVLRQV +RZHYHU ZH VWLOO WKLQN WKDW RWKHU
LQIRUPDWLRQ SDUWLFXODUO\ UHVXOWLQJ IURP EUDQG SHUFHSWLRQV KDV WKH FDSDFLW\ WR
GHSUHFLDWH WKH LQIOXHQFH RI &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KLV ILQGLQJ VKRXOG EH WKRURXJKO\
FRQVLGHUHG E\ SUDFWLWLRQHUV ZKHQ PDNLQJ VWUDWHJLF GHFLVLRQV UHJDUGLQJ JOREDOO\
UHSUHVHQWHGSURGXFWVDQGEUDQGV

0DQDJHULDOLPSOLFDWLRQV
3URGXFWPDQDJHUVZRUNLQJIRUJOREDOFRPSDQLHVQRZDGD\VDUHRIWHQFRQIURQWHGZLWK
WKHSUREOHPRISRVLWLRQLQJEUDQGVDQGSURGXFWVWKDWDUHJOREDOO\DYDLODEOHWRFXVWRPHUV
IURP YDULRXV FRXQWULHV 7KH FRUH FKDOOHQJH KHUHE\ FOHDUO\ OLHV LQ FUHDWLQJ D SURGXFW
LPDJH WKDW LV DSSHDOLQJ WR FXVWRPHUV RI YHU\ GLIIHUHQW FXOWXUDO EDFNJURXQGV WKHVH
GLIIHUHQFHV PD\ UHDGLO\ LQYROYH KLJKO\ YDU\LQJ SHUFHSWLRQV RI SURGXFWV WKHPVHOYHV
EUDQG DVVRFLDWLRQV DQG EHOLHIV 7UDGLWLRQDO PDUNHWLQJ OLWHUDWXUH WDNLQJ WKLV JOREDOL]HG
YLHZSRLQWLVKHDYLO\IRFXVHGRQSHUFHSWLRQDODQGH[SHULHQWLDOGLIIHUHQFHVRISURGXFWV
WKDW ZRXOG DULVH LQ FXVWRPHUV ZKHQ EHLQJ FRQIURQWHG ZLWK JRRGV IURP GLIIHUHQW
FRXQWU\ RULJLQV 7KLV UHVXOWHG LQ QXPHURXV SXEOLFDWLRQV RQ WKH &22 HIIHFW D
SKHQRPHQRQ WKDW KDV EHHQ UHFHQWO\ FULWLFL]HG IRU LWV SRRU SUHGLFWDELOLW\ LQ SXUFKDVH
VLWXDWLRQV,QWKHOLJKWRIDQRQJRLQJGLVFXVVLRQDQGRIFRXUVHZLWKWKHEDFNJURXQGRI
DQHYHQPRUHJOREDOL]LQJHFRQRPLFZRUOGSUDFWLWLRQHUVZLOODVNWRZKDWGHJUHHWKH\
ZLOO KDYH WR WDNH FDUH RI &22 HIIHFWV LQ UHDO PDUNHW VLWXDWLRQV DQG KRZ LPSRUWDQW
WKHVHHIIHFWVZLOOEHLQFRPSDULVRQWRRWKHUVXFFHVVIDFWRUV
&RPSUHKHQVLYH OLWHUDWXUH ZRXOG VXJJHVW WKDW &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ LV MXVW D PLQRU
GHWHUPLQDQW LQ D ODUJHU VHW RI LQIOXHQWLDO DVSHFWV DQG LQGHHG RXU UHVXOWV FDQ FRQILUP
WKDW IRU H[DPSOH FXVWRPHUV EUDQG DZDUHQHVV SOD\V D PRUH LQIOXHQWLDO DQG
FRQWLQXRXVO\ REVHUYDEOH UROH ZKHQ SUHGLFWLQJ :73 VWDWHPHQWV 7KHUHIRUH ZKHQ
SRVLWLRQLQJ D SURGXFW IURP D JOREDO EUDQG DQG PDQXIDFWXULQJ EDFNJURXQG LQ D QHZ
FRXQWU\ ZH ZRXOG DGYLVH PDQDJHUV WR IRFXV SULPDULO\ RQ EXLOGLQJ DQFKRULQJ DQG
SURPRWLQJWKHEUDQGLPDJHILUVWZKLFKZHVHHDVPRUHLPSRUWDQWWKDQUHVWUDLQLQJDVD
UHVXOW IURP H[XEHUDQW EUDQG RULJLQ FRQFHUQV $V LQLWLDOO\ SRLQWHG RXW ZLWK WKH $SSOH
H[DPSOH RULJLQ SHUFHSWLRQV DV LQ WKLV FDVH SRVVLEO\ UHVXOWLQJ IURP WKH FRXQWU\ RI


$UWLFOH,9

PDQXIDFWXUHWKDWPLJKWOHDGWRDQHJDWLYHSURGXFWSHUFHSWLRQFDQEHHDVLO\GLPLQLVKHG
E\ D VWURQJ EUDQG LPDJH DQG WKHUH DUH VHYHUDO RWKHU FRPSDQLHV EHVLGHV $SSOH WKDW
KDYH VLPLODUO\ VXFFHVVIXOO\ PDVNHG WKHLU WUXH RULJLQV %H LW /H[XV IRU DXWRPRELOHV
6LQJHU IRU VHZLQJ PDFKLQHV 'RYH IRU FRVPHWLFV RU +lDJHQ'D]V IRU LFH FUHDP WKH
DYHUDJH JOREDO FXVWRPHU ZLOO KDYH GLIILFXOWLHV LQ JXHVVLQJ WKHLU RULJLQ FRUUHFWO\
%HVLGHVIRUWUXO\JOREDOFRPSDQLHVWKHTXHVWLRQRI&22LVGLIILFXOWWRDQVZHU,VLWWKH
SODFH ZKHUH LW ZDV IRXQGHG" 2U LV LW WKH KHDGTXDUWHUV" ,Q WKH ODWWHU FDVH PRVW
FRQVXPHUVPLJKWHYHQKDYHSUREOHPVLQJXHVVLQJWKHRULJLQRIWKHIXUQLWXUHFRPSDQ\
,.($
,Q WKH VHW RI YDULDEOHV LQ RXU LQYHVWLJDWLRQ EUDQG DZDUHQHVV ZDV ZLWKRXW GRXEW WKH
PRVW LPSRUWDQW SUHGLFWRU IRU :73 EXW RI FRXUVH &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ VKRXOG QRW EH
GLVFDUGHG DVXQLPSRUWDQW)RUWKHUHDO*HUPDQSUHPLXPFDUEUDQGSDUWLFLSDQWVIURP
*HUPDQ\DQG8QLWHG6WDWHVVKRZHGDQHOHYDWHG:73ZKHQ*HUPDQ\ZDVLQYROYHG,Q
RXUSHUFHSWLRQWKLVUHIOHFWVVSHFLILFEUDQGNQRZOHGJHLQWKHFXVWRPHUJURXSVWKDWPD\
KDYHUHVXOWHGIURPSUHYLRXVEUDQGLQJHIIRUWVOLQNHGWKHSUHPLXPEUDQGZLWKDJHQHULF
*HUPDQ TXDOLW\ ODEHO ,Q WKH FDVH RI ZLQH DQ HYHQ PRUH JHQHULF SURGXFW FRXQWU\
OLQNDJHLVOLNHO\WRKDYHHYROYHGDQGDJDLQLWLVSUREDEO\PDLQO\TXDOLW\DVVRFLDWLRQV
WKDW DUH UHVSRQVLEOH IRU WKH :73 ELDV DOVR UHPHPEHU WKDW &22 HIIHFWV KDYH
WUDGLWLRQDOO\IRXQGWREHPRVWVWDEOHZLWKTXDOLW\DVVRFLDWLRQV:KHQEUDQGPDQDJHUV
DUH DZDUH RI VXFK VWURQJ HVWDEOLVKHG SURGXFW DQG EUDQGUHODWHG DVVRFLDWLRQV WKH\
VKRXOG QRW MXVW LJQRUH WKHP EXW WU\ WR LQFRUSRUDWH WKHP LQWR WKHLU EUDQGLQJ VWUDWHJ\
,.($IRUH[DPSOHGRHVVRE\DFWLYHO\IRVWHULQJWKHLU6ZHGLVKIXUQLWXUHLPDJHZKLFK
RYHUFDVWV RWKHU &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ WKH FXVWRPHUV SHUFHSWLRQ VXFK DV FRXQWULHV RI
PDQXIDFWXUH DQG FRXQWU\ RI KHDGTXDUWHUV 6WLOO LI WKH EUDQG KDV QRW SUHYLRXVO\ WULHG
KHDYLO\ WR HVWDEOLVK VXFK D FRQQHFWLRQ ZH WKLQN WKDW &22 RQO\ PDWWHUV UDUHO\ DQG
RQO\IRUDOLPLWHGQXPEHURISURGXFWVZLWKZLQHEHLQJRQHH[DPSOH
)LQDOO\ EUDQG DZDUHQHVV LWVHOI RI FRXUVH PLJKW QRW EH VROHO\ VXIILFLHQW IRU UDLVLQJ
SXUFKDVH LQWHQWLRQV $V SUHYLRXVO\ PHQWLRQHG RWKHU LQIOXHQFH IDFWRUV VXFK DV SULFH
SURGXFW H[SHULHQFH DQG VRFLDO LQIOXHQFHV PLJKW EH RI HOHYDWHG LPSRUWDQFH DV ZHOO
:LWK QHJDWLYH EUDQG LPDJHV ZKLFK PLJKW IRU H[DPSOH UHVXOW IURP SXEOLF VFDQGDOV
HOHYDWHGEUDQGDZDUHQHVVFDQHYHQEHWKRXJKWDVEHLQJFRXQWHUSURGXFWLYH+RZHYHU
EXLOGLQJDQGPDLQWDLQLQJSRVLWLYHEUDQGLPDJHVQDWXUDOO\DUHLQWKHUHDOPRIWKHEUDQG
PDQDJHUDQGRXUUHVHDUFKVXJJHVWVWKDWHYHQ&22DVVRFLDWLRQVWKDWKDYHHVWDEOLVKHG
ZLWKRXW DFWLRQV RI KLV RZQ FDQ HDVLO\ EH FRQWUROOHG E\ EUDQGLQJ HIIRUWV &22


$UWLFOH,9

LQIRUPDWLRQ SUREDEO\ KHOSV FXVWRPHUV LQ PDNLQJ WKHLU GHFLVLRQ ZKHQ WKHLU VSHFLILF
EUDQGNQRZOHGJHLVORZKHOSLQJZLWKFRXQWU\TXDOLW\DVVRFLDWLRQVRUWKHOLNDELOLW\RI
WKH EUDQG EXW D VWURQJ EUDQG ZLOO PRVW OLNHO\ EH DEOH WR JLYHDOO WKH LQIRUPDWLRQ WKH
FXVWRPHUQHHGVLWVHOIDQGWKHUHIRUHEHLQGHSHQGHQWIURP&22UHODWHGIDWH&XVWRPHUV
ZLOOEHOLHYHWKDW$SSOHSURGXFHVJRRGPRELOHSKRQHVZKHUHYHUWKH\PD\PDQXIDFWXUH
WKHP

)XWXUHUHVHDUFK
$V RXWOLQHG DERYH ZH VHH EUDQG DZDUHQHVV DQG &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ DV SURGXFW DQG
EUDQGUHODWHG DVSHFWV LQ D ODUJHU IUDPHZRUN RI IDFWRUV WKDW LQIOXHQFH FXVWRPHUV
SXUFKDVH GHFLVLRQV ([WHQGLQJ IRUPHU UHVHDUFK RQ &22 HIIHFWV DQG EXLOGLQJ RQ
DIRUHPHQWLRQHGFULWLTXHWKDWZDVUDLVHGFRQFHUQLQJWKHSUDFWLFDOUHOHYDQFHRIWKHODWWHU
FRQVWUXFW ZH PDGH D ILUVW VWHS ZLWK RXU VWXG\ WRZDUGV D FRPSRVLWH LQYHVWLJDWLRQ RI
EUDQGDZDUHQHVVDQG &22LQIRUPDWLRQLQDSXUFKDVHVFHQDULR)XWXUHUHVHDUFKFRXOG
H[WHQGWKLVDSSURDFKE\LQYHVWLJDWLQJWKHUHODWLRQVKLSRIWKHQDPHGLQIOXHQFHIDFWRUVLQ
DUHDOSXUFKDVHGHFLVLRQDQGE\YDU\LQJWKHIDFWRUVPRUHULJRURXVO\
$OVR ZKLOH ZH IRXQG EUDQG DZDUHQHVV WR EH D PRUH VWDEOH DQG UHOLDEOH SUHGLFWRU IRU
:73 ZH H[SHULHQFHG &22 LQIRUPDWLRQ WR H[HUW VRPH HIIHFW LQ DW OHDVW VRPH
VLWXDWLRQV )XWXUH UHVHDUFK VKRXOG GHGLFDWH HIIRUWV WR GLVHQWDQJOH WKH JHQHUDO
FLUFXPVWDQFHVZKHUH&22LQIRUPDWLRQLVRIHOHYDWHGLPSRUWDQFHDQGZKHUHLWLVQRW
3DUWLFXODUO\ SURGXFW FDWHJRULHV FXOWXUDO GHWHUPLQDQWV DQG VRFLDO LQIOXHQFHV VKRXOG EH
LGHQWLILHGDVWKHVHZLOOPRVWOLNHO\OHDGWRZDUGVDPRUHJHQHUDOXQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKH
SKHQRPHQRQLQHYHU\GD\VLWXDWLRQV




$UWLFOH,9

5HIHUHQFHV
$KPHG 6 $  G$VWRXV $  $QWHFHGHQWV 0RGHUDWRUV DQG 'LPHQVLRQV RI
&RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ(YDOXDWLRQV,QWHUQDWLRQDO0DUNHWLQJ5HYLHZ
%DODEDQLV *  'LDPDQWRSRXORV $  'RPHVWLF &RXQWU\ %LDV &RXQWU\RI
2ULJLQ (IIHFWV DQG &RQVXPHU (WKQRFHQWULVP $ 0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDO 8QIROGLQJ
$SSURDFK-RXUQDORIWKH$FDGHP\RI0DUNHWLQJ6FLHQFH
&KDR 3  7KH 0RGHUDWLQJ (IIHFWV RI&RXQWU\ RI $VVHPEO\ &RXQWU\ RI 3DUWV
DQG&RXQWU\RI'HVLJQRQ+\EULG3URGXFW(YDOXDWLRQV-RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ

&KHQ+/7HVWLQJWKH5ROHRI&RXQWU\RI2ULJLQLQ&RQVXPHU$GRSWLRQRI
1HZ3URGXFWV,QWHUQDWLRQDO$GYDQFHVLQ(FRQRPLF5HVHDUFK
(YDQVFKLW]N\ + YRQ :DQJHQKHLP ) :RLVHWVFKOlJHU '  %OXW 0 
&RQVXPHU (WKQRFHQWULVP LQ WKH *HUPDQ 0DUNHW ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0DUNHWLQJ
5HYLHZ
)HWVFKHULQ 0  7RQFDU 0  7KH (IIHFWV RI WKH &RXQWU\ RI %UDQG DQG WKH
&RXQWU\ RI 0DQXIDFWXULQJ RI $XWRPRELOHV $Q ([SHULPHQWDO 6WXG\ RI
&RQVXPHUV %UDQG 3HUVRQDOLW\ 3HUFHSWLRQV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 0DUNHWLQJ 5HYLHZ

)XQN&$$UWKXUV-'7UHYLQR/- -RLUHPDQ-&RQVXPHU$QLPRVLW\
LQ WKH *OREDO 9DOXH &KDLQ 7KH (IIHFW RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 3URGXFWLRQ 6KLIWV RQ
:LOOLQJQHVV WR 3XUFKDVH +\EULG 3URGXFWV -RXUQDO RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO %XVLQHVV
6WXGLHV
*UKDQ&DQOL =  0DKHVZDUDQ ' D &XOWXUDO 9DULDWLRQV LQ &RXQWU\ RI
2ULJLQ(IIHFWV-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ5HVHDUFK
*UKDQ&DQOL =  0DKHVZDUDQ ' E 'HWHUPLQDQWV RI &RXQWU\ RI 2ULJLQ
(YDOXDWLRQV-RXUQDORI&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
+RIVWHGH *  &XOWXUHV &RQVHTXHQFHV ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 'LIIHUHQFHV LQ :RUN
5HODWHG9DOXHVVWHG%HYHUO\+LOOV6DJH


$UWLFOH,9

+RIVWHGH *  &XOWXUHV &RQVHTXHQFHV &RPSDULQJ 9DOXHV %HKDYLRUV

,QVWLWXWLRQV DQG 2UJDQL]DWLRQV $FURVV 1DWLRQV QG HG 7KRXVDQG 2DNV
/RQGRQ1HZ'HKOL6DJH
+RIVWHGH * +RIVWHGH * -  0LQNRY 0  &XOWXUHV DQG 2UJDQL]DWLRQV
6RIWZDUHRIWKH0LQGUGHG1HZ<RUN0F*UDZ+LOO
,QVFK * 6  0F%ULGH - %  7KH ,PSDFW RI &RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ &XHV RQ
&RQVXPHU 3HUFHSWLRQV RI 3URGXFW 4XDOLW\ $ %LQDWLRQDO 7HVW RI WKH
'HFRPSRVHG &RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ &RQVWUXFW -RXUQDO RI %XVLQHVV 5HVHDUFK

.HOOHU . /  &RQFHSWXDOL]LQJ 0HDVXULQJ DQG 0DQDJLQJ &XVWRPHU%DVHG
%UDQG(TXLW\-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ
.HOOHU./%UDQG6\QWKHVLV7KH0XOWLGLPHQVLRQDOLW\RI%UDQG.QRZOHGJH
-RXUQDORI&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
.HOOHU./ /HKPDQQ'5%UDQGVDQG%UDQGLQJ5HVHDUFK)LQGLQJVDQG
)XWXUH3ULRULWLHV0DUNHWLQJ6FLHQFH
.OHLQ-*8V9HUVXV7KHPRU8V9HUVXV(YHU\RQH"'HOLQHDWLQJ&RQVXPHU
$YHUVLRQ WR )RUHLJQ *RRGV -RXUQDO RI ,QWHUQDWLRQDO %XVLQHVV 6WXGLHV 

/LX 6 6  -RKQVRQ . )  7KH $XWRPDWLF &RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ (IIHFWV RQ
%UDQG-XGJPHQWV-RXUQDORI$GYHUWLVLQJ
3DUDPHVZDUDQ5 3LVKDURGL50$VVLPLODWLRQ(IIHFWVLQ&RXQWU\,PDJH
5HVHDUFK,QWHUQDWLRQDO0DUNHWLQJ5HYLHZ
3HFRWLFK $  5RVHQWKDO 0 -  &RXQWU\ RI 2ULJLQ 4XDOLW\ %UDQG DQG
&RQVXPHU(WKQRFHQWULVP-RXUQDORI*OREDO0DUNHWLQJ
3HWHUVRQ 5 $  -ROLEHUW $ - 3  $ 0HWD$QDO\VLV RI &RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ
(IIHFWV-RXUQDORI,QWHUQDWLRQDO%XVLQHVV6WXGLHV



$UWLFOH,9

3KDUU-06\QKHVL]LQJ&RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ5HVHDUFKIURPWKH/DVW'HFDGH,V

WKH &RQFHSW 6WLOO 6DOLHQW LQ WKH (UD RI *OREDO %UDQGV" -RXUQDO RI 0DUNHWLQJ
3UDFWLFHDQG7KHRU\
3LQKHLUR - %DWHV ' 'HE5R\ 6 6DUNDU '  WKH 5 &RUH WHDP  QOPH
/LQHDUDQG1RQOLQHDU0L[HG(IIHFWV0RGHOV9HUVLRQ
3LURQ )  &RQVXPHUV 3HUFHSWLRQV RI WKH &RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ (IIHFW RQ
3XUFKDVLQJ ,QWHQWLRQV RI ,Q&RQVSLFXRXV 3URGXFWV -RXUQDO RI &RQVXPHU
0DUNHWLQJ
3UHVWRZLW] &  0DUFK  :K\ ,VQW WKH L3KRQH 0DGH LQ $PHULFD" )RUHLJQ
3ROLF\ 5HWULHYHG 0DUFK   IURP KWWSSUHVWRZLW]IRUHLJQSROLF\FRP
SRVWVZK\BLVQWBWKHBLSKRQHBPDGHBLQBDPHULFD
6DPLHH66KLPS7$ 6KDUPD6%UDQG2ULJLQ5HFRJQLWLRQ$FFXUDF\
,WV $QWHFHGHQWV DQG &RQVXPHUV &RJQLWLYH /LPLWDWLRQV -RXUQDO RI
,QWHUQDWLRQDO%XVLQHVV6WXGLHV
6FKRROHU 5 '  3URGXFW %LDV LQ WKH &HQWUDO $PHULFDQ &RPPRQ 0DUNHW
-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ5HVHDUFK
6KLPS 7 $  6KDUPD 6  &RQVXPHU (WKQRFHQWULVP &RQVWUXFWLRQ DQG
9DOLGDWLRQRIWKH&(76&$/(-RXUQDORI0DUNHWLQJ5HVHDUFK
6WHUQ 3 & 'LHW] 7  *XDJQDQR * $  $ %ULHI ,QYHQWRU\ RI 9DOXHV
(GXFDWLRQDODQG3V\FKRORJLFDO0HDVXUHPHQW
7KDNRU 0 9  /DYDFN $ 0  (IIHFW RI 3HUFHLYHG %UDQG 2ULJLQ
$VVRFLDWLRQVRQ&RQVXPHU3HUFHSWLRQVRI4XDOLW\-RXUQDORI3URGXFW %UDQG
0DQDJHPHQW
9HUOHJK3:- 6WHHQNDPS-%(0$5HYLHZDQG0HWD$QDO\VLVRI
&RXQWU\RI2ULJLQ5HVHDUFK-RXUQDORI(FRQRPLF3V\FKRORJ\



/LVWRI3XEOLFDWLRQV
3XUXFNHU & /DQGZHKU - 5 6SURWW ' (  +HUUPDQQ $ LQ SUHVV &OXVWHUHG
,QVLJKWV ,PSURYLQJ (\H 7UDFNLQJ 'DWD $QDO\VLV 8VLQJ 6FDQ 6WDWLVWLFV
,QWHUQDWLRQDO-RXUQDORI0DUNHW5HVHDUFK
3XUXFNHU &  :KHQ 'R 0RXWKV 0DWWHU" $ &URVV&XOWXUDO $VVHVVPHQW RI
&RQVXPHUV 3UHIHUHQFHV 7RZDUGV $QWKURSRPRUSKLF &DU )URQWV ,Q
3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH VW $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH (XURSHDQ 0DUNHWLQJ
$FDGHP\/LVERQ(0$&
+HUUPDQQ $ +XEHU ) :ULFNH 0  3XUXFNHU &  3UHLVIDLUQHVV DOV
6FKOVVHO]XU.XQGHQ]XIULHGHQKHLW,Q&+RPEXUJ(G.XQGHQ]XIULHGHQKHLW
WKHGSS:LHVEDGHQ*DEOHU
3XUXFNHU&/DQGZHKU-56SURWW'( +HUUPDQQ$7KH(\HV+DYH
,W (\H 7UDFNLQJ $QDO\VLV RI $QWKURSRPRUSKLF &DU )URQWV 8VLQJ
6SDWLRWHPSRUDO6FDQ6WDWLVWLFV$GYDQFHVLQ&RQVXPHU5HVHDUFK
*HLVVHOHU % 3XUXFNHU &  +HUUPDQQ $  $WWHQWLRQ &DSWXUH ZLWK
&$37&+$V 'HFUHDVLQJ %DQQHU %OLQGQHVV 8VLQJ 1HZ 2QOLQH $GYHUWLVLQJ
7HFKQLTXHV ,Q 3URFHHGLQJV RI WKH WK $QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH RI WKH (XURSHDQ
0DUNHWLQJ$FDGHP\S/MXEOMDQD(0$&
3XUXFNHU & /DQGZHKU - 5  +HUUPDQQ $  (\HEDOOLQJ )ULHQGO\
+HDGOLJKWV $QDO\]LQJ *D]H %HKDYLRU IRU $QWKURSRPRUSKLF &DU )DFHV 8VLQJ
6SDWLRWHPSRUDO6FDQ6WDWLVWLFV,Q3URFHHGLQJVRIWKHWK$QQXDO &RQIHUHQFH
RIWKH(XURSHDQ0DUNHWLQJ$FDGHP\S/MXEOMDQD(0$&
3XUXFNHU &  0D\ $QDO\]LQJ (\H 7UDFNLQJ 'DWD 8VLQJ 6SDWLRWHPSRUDO 6FDQ
6WDWLVWLFV3DSHUSUHVHQWHGDWWKHWK(0$&'RFWRUDO&ROORTXLXP/MXEOMDQD


&XUULFXOXP9LWDH
3HUVRQDO,QIRUPDWLRQ 
1DPH

&KULVWLDQ3XUXFNHU

'DWHRI%LUWK

-XQH

3ODFHRI%LUWK

%DG:LQGVKHLP*HUPDQ\

(GXFDWLRQ



8QLYHUVLW\RI(VVH[&ROFKHVWHU(QJODQG
(VVH[6XPPHU6FKRROLQ6RFLDO6FLHQFH'DWD$QDO\VLV



8QLYHUVLW\RI0LFKLJDQ$QQ$UERU86$
6XPPHU3URJUDPLQ4XDQWLWDWLYH5HVHDUFK0HWKRGV

SUHVHQW

8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG
&RQIHUUDORID'RFWRUDWH3K'LQ0DQDJHPHQW



-XOLXV0D[LPLOLDQV8QLYHUVLW\RI:U]EXUJ*HUPDQ\
'LSORP3V\FKRORJH8QLY



*HRUJ:LOKHOP6WHOOHU*\PQDVLXP%DG:LQGVKHLP
*HUPDQ\

:RUN([SHULHQFH

SUHVHQW

8QLYHUVLW\RI6W*DOOHQ6ZLW]HUODQG
5HVHDUFK$VVRFLDWHDWWKH&HQWHUIRU&XVWRPHU,QVLJKW



-XOLXV0D[LPLOLDQV8QLYHUVLW\RI:U]EXUJ*HUPDQ\
5HVHDUFK$VVLVWDQWDWWKH&HQWHUIRU7UDIILF6FLHQFHV



%0:$*0XQLFK*HUPDQ\
,QWHUQVKLSLQWKHILHOGRI+XPDQ0DFKLQH,QWHUDFWLRQ



%RVFK5H[URWK$*(OFKLQJHQ*HUPDQ\
,QWHUQVKLSLQWKHILHOGRI+XPDQ5HVRXUFHV



:U]EXUJ8QLYHUVLW\&OLQLF*HUPDQ\
,QWHUQVKLSLQWKHILHOGRI*HQRPLF,PDJLQJ