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2015 PV MARKET
OUTLOOK
ASEF, Manila
Xiaoting Wang
28.5GW
30.7GW
18.2GW
6.6GW
2008
7.7GW
2009
2010
Western Europe
2011
2012
Eastern Europe
2013
Japan
2014
USA
2015
China
Note: A conservative and optimistic forecast has been developed for each country. It is unlikely that all countries will come
in at the conservative or optimistic end, so for the global forecast, conservative is (sum of conservative country forecasts +
25%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts). Global optimistic forecast is sum of conservative country forecasts +
75%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts).
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
India
2016
2017
Rest of World
420%
38%
258%
1%
23%
OPTIMISTIC
9%
420%
10%
38%
258%
1%
46%
9%
15%
24.0
20.8
19.3
16.0
0.5
0.1
0.4
2010
12.9
0.8
13.0
10.9
3.6
1.6
2.0
12.1
2.6
0.5
2.1
2011
2012
2013
transmission-grid-connected
19.0
17.5
5.0
7.5
11.0
10.0
10.3
2.1
2014
2015e
2016e
distribution-grid-connected
9.0
2017e
0.5
0.1
0.4
2010
2.6
0.5
2.1
3.6
1.6
2.0
2011
2012
7.0
12.9
0.8
13.0
12.1
10.9
12.0
2014
2015e
2013
transmission-grid-connected
10.8
16.0
2.1
10.0
2016e
8.0
2017e
distribution-grid-connected
OPTIMISTIC
13.7
10.3
10.2
3.1
3.3
12.7
9.9
10.3
6.4
7.1
6.0
3.8
2011
7.8
5.9
4.8
2.5
2.1
2012
0-10kW
2013
2014
10-1000kW
5.3
1.7
3.3
2.5
2010
10.1
3.1
1.7
1.0
4.8
4.1
7.1
1.3
3.7
2015
1MW+
2016
1.0
1.3
2010
2011
2012
0-10kW
3.8
2013
7.9
6.0
3.8
2014
10-1000kW
2015
2016
2017
1MW+
US PV DEMAND (GW)
CONSERVATIVE
OPTIMISTIC
10.8
11.9
8.4
9.2
6.3
7.0
6.3
5.8
4.9
6.3
1.1
4.6
1.3
3.8
3.3
2.0
3.3
2012
2013
Residential
0.9
2014
Commercial
2.7
1.9
1.2
1.0
2011
3.8
2.0
1.6
0.9
2010
4.6
2.7
1.9
6.3
5.4
2015
Utility
2016
2010
1.0
2011
2012
2013
Residential
2.2
2.2
2016
2017
1.7
1.2
2014
Commercial
2015
Utility
45.0GW
40.0GW
28.5GW
30.7GW
18.2GW
6.6GW
2008
7.7GW
2009
2010
Western Europe
2011
2012
Eastern Europe
2013
Japan
2014
USA
2015
China
Note: A conservative and optimistic forecast has been developed for each country. It is unlikely that all countries will come
in at the conservative or optimistic end, so for the global forecast, conservative is (sum of conservative country forecasts +
25%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts). Global optimistic forecast is sum of conservative country forecasts +
75%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts).
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
India
2016
2017
Rest of World
2015 demand
56-61GW
25
SunEdison Renesola China
FBR
Silicon
REC
Siemens,
Japanese
Hankook
Silicon
20
Hanwha
Chemical
Tokuyama
Malaysia II
OCI
15
REC
FBR
GCL
Siemens
Hemlock
Michigan
TBEA
Wacker
Burghausen
Other
Chinese
Wacker
Nuchritz,
Tennessee
DAQO
10
SMP
FBR
GCL
FBR
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
90
80
Future
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Supply - crystalline silicon
Supply - thin-film silicon
Supply - thin film non-silicon
Demand - conservative
Demand - optimistic
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
20%
Daqo
Tainergy
10%
0%
Neo
OCI
SPWR
Jinko
JA
Trina
ENPH
Etrion
Eging
Renesola
-10%
SUNE Silicon
-20%
CSIQ
Sungrow
Risen
REC Solar
FSLR
Sunflower
REC Silicon
-30%
Silicon
$500
m
Gintech
Motech
Yingli
Solarworld
HSOL
Danen
Wafers
Q4 2014
AEIS
Cells
Modules
EMEA
SMA
Akcome
Inverters/
BoP
AMER
Develop,
Develop/Own
Own,
Operate
APAC
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
S-Energy,
2.11 CSIQ,
1.99
Trina,
SolarWorld, 1.17
1.82
Hareon,
1.01
GCL-Poly,
0.84
Renesola,
0.41
SunEdison,
-0.02
SunPower,
1.93
China
US
Jinko,
0.91
Europe
REC
Silicon,
-0.28
Hanwha,
Yingli,
-0.09
-0.18
South Korea
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Trina Solar
Yingli
Jinko Solar
JA Solar
Canadian Solar
Hanwha
Talesun
Suntech
Kyocera
SunPower
Risen
SolarWorld
BYD
Chint
REC Solar
Hareon
Eging
Renesola
ZNShine
CSUN
HT-SAAE
ET Solar
Module
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
Cell
-500
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Canadian Solar
Jinko Solar
Trina Solar
Suntech
ZNShine
Kyocera
Yingli
Talesun
Renesola
Risen
Chint
CSUN
ET Solar
REC Solar
HT-SAAE
Eging
SolarWorld
BYD
Hareon
Hanwha
SunPower
JA Solar
Gap
Source: Company files, estimates, enquiries,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
11
20%
18%
17%
17%
13%
10%
9%
9%
8%
4%
Jinko
Canadian Solar
Trina
2014
Yingli
JA Solar
2015E
12
Canada:
Canadian Solar M500
Germany:
Hanwha Solar C230 M130
Chint M200
Turkey:
CSUN C100 M300
South Africa:
JA Solar M150
Znshine M150
Jinko M120
Thailand:
Trina C700 M500
Talesun C500 M500
Malaysia:
Hanwha Solar C1300 M800
Jinko C500 M450
JA Solar C400
Singapore:
Bluestar (REC Solar) C810 M1300
Note: C and M stand for cell and module capacities, respectively. Hanwha SolarOne is considered as a Chinese
manufacturer since its headquarter is set in China although Korean Hanwha Chemical is the largest shareholder. Hanwha
SolarOne was merged with Hanwha Q Cells in February 2015.
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
South Korea:
CSUN C200
Hanwha Solar M230
3.42
2.64
1.70
1.95
1.58
1.50
1.39
1.31
1.24
1.18
1.13
1.09
0.55
0.51
0.47
0.45
0.42
1.35
0.84
2010
2011 2012
Module
0.71
0.68
0.61
Note: Every PV project is different and has different costs; this is a typical buildup, from quotes from developers and
EPCs, intended as a global benchmark.
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
2019 2020
Other
100
197
Cost per
W
(2013 $)
198
5
10
200
3
200
6
201
2
Q4
201
3
0.1
1
10
100
Experience curve
Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF)
1,000
10,000
201
2
100,000
201
3
1,000,000
Cumulative
capacity (MW)
15
47.0
-6.0
-3.0
-3.0
-5.0
30.0
Cell to
module
Module 2025
16
POLYSILICON TO WAFER
10.0
10.0
-1.5
-3.0
-1.5
7.0
-2.0
4.0
-1.0
2015
Cheaper
poly-Si
Thinner Higher
cells
effciency
WAFER TO CELL
2025
2015
Diamond Higher
saw
efficiency
2025
CELL TO MODULE
17.0
10.0
-3.0
-2.0
-2.0
-1.0
2015
Materials Higher
saving efficiency
12.0
7.0
2025
2015
Cheaper Higher
materials efficiency
2025
17
20.0
19.4
19.5
19.0
0.8
18.5
18.0
0.5
17.8
0.3
P-type multi
Al-BSF
4 or 5 BB
17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5
15.0
0.0
Black silicon
Rear
passivation
P-type multi
PERC
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
18
100
HIT
90
IBC
80
PERT
70
60
50
Mono Mono
Mono
Multi Multi
PERC PERL
Al-BSF
Al-BSF PERC
40
30
20
10
0
0.0% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.0%
15.5%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015
19
89%
gap
70
60
50
67%
gap
40
30
20
10
0
P-type
Multi
P-type
Mono
N-type
PERT
2015
N-type
HIT
N-type
IBC
2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
20
2015
P-type multi Al-BSF
74%
22%
3%
2025
2018
0%
41%
14%
7%
3%
3%
2%
3%
1%
2%
20%
0%
20%
4%
40%
6%
9%
25%
21
22
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xwang263@bloomberg.net
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