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15 June 2015

2015 PV MARKET
OUTLOOK
ASEF, Manila

Xiaoting Wang

PV NEW BUILD BY YEAR, HISTORICAL AND


FORECAST TO 2017 (CONSERVATIVE)
61.0GW 61.3GW
55.5GW
45.0GW
40.0GW

28.5GW

30.7GW

18.2GW

6.6GW

2008

7.7GW

2009

2010

Western Europe

2011

2012

Eastern Europe

2013

Japan

2014
USA

2015

China

Note: A conservative and optimistic forecast has been developed for each country. It is unlikely that all countries will come
in at the conservative or optimistic end, so for the global forecast, conservative is (sum of conservative country forecasts +
25%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts). Global optimistic forecast is sum of conservative country forecasts +
75%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts).
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

India

2016

2017

Rest of World

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


1

CHINA PV DEMAND (GW)


CONSERVATIVE

420%

38%

258%

1%

23%

OPTIMISTIC

9%

420%

10%

38%

258%

1%

46%

9%

15%
24.0

20.8

19.3
16.0

0.5
0.1
0.4
2010

12.9
0.8

13.0

10.9

3.6
1.6
2.0

12.1

2.6
0.5
2.1

2011

2012

2013

transmission-grid-connected

19.0

17.5

5.0

7.5

11.0

10.0

10.3

2.1

2014

2015e

2016e

distribution-grid-connected

9.0

2017e

0.5
0.1
0.4
2010

2.6
0.5
2.1

3.6
1.6
2.0

2011

2012

7.0

12.9
0.8

13.0

12.1

10.9

12.0

2014

2015e

2013

transmission-grid-connected

10.8

16.0

2.1

10.0

2016e

8.0

2017e

distribution-grid-connected

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

JAPAN PV DEMAND (GW)


CONSERVATIVE

OPTIMISTIC

13.7

10.3

10.2

3.1

3.3

12.7

9.9
10.3
6.4
7.1

6.0
3.8

2011

7.8

5.9
4.8
2.5

2.1

2012
0-10kW

2013

2014

10-1000kW

5.3

1.7

3.3

2.5

2010

10.1

3.1

1.7

1.0

4.8

4.1

7.1

1.3

3.7

2015
1MW+

2016

1.0

1.3

2010

2011

2012
0-10kW

3.8

2013

7.9

6.0
3.8

2014

10-1000kW

2015

2016

2017

1MW+

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

US PV DEMAND (GW)
CONSERVATIVE

OPTIMISTIC

10.8
11.9
8.4
9.2

6.3

7.0

6.3

5.8
4.9

6.3

1.1

4.6

1.3

3.8
3.3

2.0

3.3

2012

2013

Residential

0.9

2014
Commercial

2.7

1.9

1.2
1.0

2011

3.8

2.0

1.6

0.9

2010

4.6

2.7

1.9

6.3

5.4

2015
Utility

2016

2010

1.0
2011

2012

2013

Residential

2.2

2.2

2016

2017

1.7
1.2

2014
Commercial

2015
Utility

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

PV NEW BUILD BY YEAR, HISTORICAL AND


FORECAST TO 2017 (OPTIMISTIC)
67.9GW 69.7GW
61.4GW

45.0GW
40.0GW

28.5GW

30.7GW

18.2GW

6.6GW

2008

7.7GW

2009

2010

Western Europe

2011

2012

Eastern Europe

2013

Japan

2014
USA

2015

China

Note: A conservative and optimistic forecast has been developed for each country. It is unlikely that all countries will come
in at the conservative or optimistic end, so for the global forecast, conservative is (sum of conservative country forecasts +
25%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts). Global optimistic forecast is sum of conservative country forecasts +
75%*(sum of optimistic conservative forecasts).
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

India

2016

2017

Rest of World

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


5

SUPPLY CURVE FOR POLYSILICON, 2015


Estimated
variable
cost ($/kg)

2015 demand
56-61GW

25
SunEdison Renesola China
FBR
Silicon

REC
Siemens,
Japanese

Hankook
Silicon

20

Hanwha
Chemical

Tokuyama
Malaysia II

OCI

15
REC
FBR

GCL
Siemens

Hemlock
Michigan

TBEA

Wacker
Burghausen

Other
Chinese

Wacker
Nuchritz,
Tennessee

DAQO

10
SMP
FBR
GCL
FBR

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Potential production in 2015 (tonnes)


Note: Variable cost includes processing cost and SG&A; depreciation is excluded. 2015 demand estimate is 55.5-61.4GW.
Assumes 6% of the demand will be supplied by thin-film modules; 24% by mono modules with polysilicon consumption of
4.52g/W; 70% by multi silicon modules with a polysilicon consumption of 5.0g/W; electronics market is estimated at
30,000 tonnes.
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


6

DEMAND AND SUPPLY FOR PV MODULES, 20062017E (MW/YEAR)


Historical

90
80

Future

Current effective cell manufacturing


capacity - at least 66GW

70
60

50
40
30
20
10
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Supply - crystalline silicon
Supply - thin-film silicon
Supply - thin film non-silicon
Demand - conservative
Demand - optimistic
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

EBIT MARGINS OF QUOTED PV COMPANIES BY


APPROXIMATE VALUE CHAIN POSITION, Q4 2014
30%
WCH Silicon

20%
Daqo
Tainergy

10%
0%

Neo

OCI

SPWR
Jinko
JA
Trina

ENPH

Etrion

Eging

Renesola

-10%

SUNE Silicon

-20%

CSIQ
Sungrow
Risen
REC Solar
FSLR
Sunflower

REC Silicon

-30%
Silicon
$500
m

Gintech
Motech
Yingli
Solarworld
HSOL
Danen

Wafers
Q4 2014

AEIS

Cells

Modules

EMEA

SMA
Akcome
Inverters/
BoP

AMER

Develop,
Develop/Own
Own,
Operate

APAC
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

ALTMAN-Z SCORES OF QUOTED PUREPLAY PV


MANUFACTURERS, AS OF Q4 2014 OR Q1 2015
FILING
REC Solar,
4.34
First
Solar,
3.60

S-Energy,
2.11 CSIQ,
1.99
Trina,
SolarWorld, 1.17
1.82
Hareon,
1.01

GCL-Poly,
0.84
Renesola,
0.41
SunEdison,
-0.02

SunPower,
1.93
China

US

Jinko,
0.91
Europe

REC
Silicon,
-0.28

Hanwha,
Yingli,
-0.09
-0.18
South Korea
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

PLANNED CAPACITIES OF LARGE MODULE


COMPANIES BY END OF 2015 (MW)
0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Trina Solar
Yingli
Jinko Solar
JA Solar
Canadian Solar
Hanwha
Talesun
Suntech
Kyocera
SunPower
Risen
SolarWorld
BYD
Chint
REC Solar
Hareon
Eging
Renesola
ZNShine
CSUN
HT-SAAE
ET Solar
Module
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

Cell

Source: Company files, estimates, enquiries,


Bloomberg New Energy Finance
10

GAP BETWEEN MODULE AND CELL CAPACITIES FOR


LARGE COMPANIES BY END OF 2015 (MW)
-1,000

-500

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Canadian Solar
Jinko Solar
Trina Solar
Suntech
ZNShine
Kyocera
Yingli
Talesun
Renesola
Risen
Chint
CSUN
ET Solar
REC Solar
HT-SAAE
Eging
SolarWorld
BYD
Hareon
Hanwha
SunPower
JA Solar
Gap
Source: Company files, estimates, enquiries,
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

11

PROPORTION OF TOTAL SHIPMENTS SENT TO


INTERNAL PROJECTS BY CHINESE MODULE
COMPANIES, 2014 AND 2015 ESTIMATE

20%
18%

17%

17%
13%
10%

9%

9%

8%
4%

Jinko

Canadian Solar

Trina
2014

Yingli

JA Solar

2015E

Source: Company files, estimates, Bloomberg


New Energy Finance
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

12

ESTIMATED INTERNATIONAL CAPACITIES OWNED


BY OR CHINESE COMPANIES AND HANWHA Q CELLS
BY 2015

Canada:
Canadian Solar M500

Germany:
Hanwha Solar C230 M130
Chint M200
Turkey:
CSUN C100 M300

South Africa:
JA Solar M150
Znshine M150
Jinko M120

Thailand:
Trina C700 M500
Talesun C500 M500
Malaysia:
Hanwha Solar C1300 M800
Jinko C500 M450
JA Solar C400
Singapore:
Bluestar (REC Solar) C810 M1300

Note: C and M stand for cell and module capacities, respectively. Hanwha SolarOne is considered as a Chinese
manufacturer since its headquarter is set in China although Korean Hanwha Chemical is the largest shareholder. Hanwha
SolarOne was merged with Hanwha Q Cells in February 2015.
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

South Korea:
CSUN C200
Hanwha Solar M230

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


13

GLOBAL PV CAPEX BENCHMARK, UTILITY-SCALE,


$/W (DC)

3.42

2.64

1.70

1.95

1.58

1.50

1.39

1.31

1.24

1.18

1.13

1.09

0.55

0.51

0.47

0.45

0.42

1.35
0.84

2010

2011 2012
Module

0.71

0.68

0.61

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Inverter
Balance of plant
EPC

Note: Every PV project is different and has different costs; this is a typical buildup, from quotes from developers and
EPCs, intended as a global benchmark.
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

2019 2020
Other

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


14

LEARNING CURVES OF C-SI AND THIN FILM MODULES

100

197

Cost per
W
(2013 $)

198
5

10

200
3

200
6

201
2
Q4
201
3

0.1
1

10

100

Experience curve
Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF)

1,000

10,000

201
2

100,000

Historical prices (Maycock)


Thin-film experience curve

201
3

1,000,000
Cumulative
capacity (MW)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

15

C-SI MODULE COST FORECAST FOR 2015


(US CENT/W)

47.0

-6.0
-3.0
-3.0

Module 2015 Polysilicon Polysilicon to Wafer to cell


wafer

-5.0

30.0

Cell to
module

Module 2025

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

16

DRIVERS OF COST REDUCTIONS ALONG THE C-SI


VALUE CHAIN (US CENT/W)
POLYSILICON

POLYSILICON TO WAFER
10.0

10.0

-1.5
-3.0

-1.5

7.0

-2.0
4.0

-1.0

2015

Cheaper
poly-Si

Thinner Higher
cells
effciency

WAFER TO CELL

2025

2015

Diamond Higher
saw
efficiency

2025

CELL TO MODULE
17.0

10.0

-3.0
-2.0

-2.0
-1.0

2015

Materials Higher
saving efficiency

12.0

7.0

2025

2015

Cheaper Higher
materials efficiency

2025

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

17

PATHWAY TO HIGH EFFICIENCY MULTI C-SI SOLAR


CELLS (%)

20.0
19.4

19.5
19.0

0.8

18.5
18.0

0.5
17.8

0.3

P-type multi
Al-BSF

4 or 5 BB

17.5
17.0
16.5
16.0
15.5

15.0
0.0
Black silicon

Rear
passivation

P-type multi
PERC
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

18

C-SI MODULE PRODUCTION COSTS AND


EFFICIENCIES, H1 2015 (US /W, %)

100
HIT

90

IBC

80
PERT

70

60
50

Mono Mono
Mono
Multi Multi
PERC PERL
Al-BSF
Al-BSF PERC

40
30

20
10

0
0.0% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.0%
15.5%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

19

C-SI MODULE COST FORECAST (US CENT/W)


100
90
80

89%
gap

70
60
50

67%
gap

40
30
20
10
0
P-type
Multi

P-type
Mono

N-type
PERT
2015

N-type
HIT

N-type
IBC

2018
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

20

MARKET SHARE FORECAST OF DIFFERENT C-SI


SOLAR CELL TECHNOLOGIES

2015
P-type multi Al-BSF

P-type multi PERC

74%

22%

3%

P-type mono Al-BSF

2025

2018
0%
41%

14%

7%

P-type mono PERC/L

3%

N-type mono IBC

3%

N-type mono HIT

2%

3%

N-type mono PERT

1%

2%

20%
0%

20%
4%

40%
6%
9%
25%

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

21

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BNEF Market Outlook, ASEF Manila, 15 June 2015

22

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