IBM: In the next 5 years

computers will learn, mimic the

human senses
IBM researchers say cognitive systems will
be capable of learning from their interactions
with data and humans
By Michael Cooney
"Just as the human brain relies on interacting with the world using multiple
senses, by bringing combinations of these breakthroughs together, cognitive
systems will bring even greater value and insights, helping us solve some of
the most complicated challenges," writes Bernie Meyerson, IBM fellow and
VP of innovation.

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Your computer will reach out and touch somebody: According to IBM,
in five years, industries such as retail will be transformed by the ability to
"touch" a product through your mobile device. IBM says its scientists are
developing applications for the retail, healthcare and other sectors using
haptic, infrared and pressure sensitive technologies to simulate touch, such
as the texture and weave of a fabric -- as a shopper brushes a finger over the
image of the item on a device screen. Utilizing the vibration capabilities of
the phone, every object will have a unique set of vibration patterns that
represents the touch experience: short fast patterns, or longer and stronger
strings of vibrations. The vibration pattern will differentiate silk from linen or
cotton, helping simulate the physical sensation of actually touching the
material, IBM says.
Can you see me now? Within the next five years, IBM researchers think
computers will not only be able to look at images, but help us understand the
500 billion photos we're taking every year (that's about 78 photos for each
person on the planet). In the future, "brain-like" capabilities will let
computers analyze features such as color, texture patterns or edge
information and extract insights from visual media.

One of the challenges of getting computers to "see," is that traditional

programming can't replicate something as complex as sight. But by taking a
cognitive approach, and showing a computer thousands of examples of a
particular scene, the computer can start to detect patterns that matter,
whether it's in a scanned photograph uploaded to the web, or some video
footage taken with a camera phone, IBM says.
Within five years, these capabilities will be put to work in healthcare by
making sense out of massive volumes of medical information such as MRIs,
CT scans, X-Rays and ultrasound images to capture information tailored to
particular anatomy or pathologies. What is critical in these images can be
subtle or invisible to the human eye and requires careful measurement. By
being trained to discriminate what to look for in images -- such as
differentiating healthy from diseased tissue -- and correlating that with
patient records and scientific literature, systems that can "see" will help
doctors detect medical problems with far greater speed and accuracy, IBM
says.
Stop, look. Listen: IBM thinks that by 2017 or so a distributed system of
what it calls "clever sensors" will detect elements of sound such as sound
pressure, vibrations and sound waves at different frequencies. The system
will interpret these inputs to predict when trees will fall in a forest or when a
landslide is imminent. Such a system will "listen" to our surroundings and
measure movements, or the stress in a material, to warn of danger, IBM
says.
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Raw sounds will be detected by sensors, much like the human brain. A
system that receives this data will take into account other "modalities," such
as visual or tactile information, and classify and interpret the sounds based
on what it has learned. When new sounds are detected, the system will form
conclusions based on previous knowledge and the ability to recognize
patterns, IBM says. By learning about emotion and being able to sense mood,
systems will pinpoint aspects of a conversation and analyze pitch, tone and
hesitancy to help us have more productive dialogues that could improve
customer call center interactions, or allow us to seamlessly interact with
different cultures.

IBM goes so far as to say that "baby talk" will be understood as a language -telling parents or doctors what infants are trying to communicate.
Good taste: IBM said its researchers are developing a computing system
that experiences flavor, to be used with chefs to create the most tasty and
novel recipes. Such a system breaks down ingredients to their molecular
level and blend the chemistry of food compounds with the psychology behind
what flavors and smells humans prefer. By comparing this with millions of
recipes, the system will be able to create new flavor combinations that pair,
for example, roasted chestnuts with other foods such as cooked beetroot,
fresh caviar, and dry-cured ham, IBM says.
Specifically, the computer will be able to use algorithms to determine the
precise chemical structure of food and why people like certain tastes. These
algorithms will examine how chemicals interact with each other, the
molecular complexity of flavor compounds and their bonding structure, and
use that information, together with models of perception to predict the taste
appeal of flavors.
You smell funny: IBM says that during the next five years, tiny sensors
embedded in your computer or cell phone will detect if you're coming down
with a cold or other illness. By analyzing odors, biomarkers and thousands of
molecules in someone's breath, doctors will have help diagnosing and
monitoring the onset of ailments such as liver and kidney disorders, asthma,
diabetes and epilepsy by detecting which odors are normal and which are
not. Due to advances in sensor and communication technologies in
combination with deep learning systems, sensors can measure data in places
never thought possible. For example, computer systems can be used in
agriculture to "smell" or analyze the soil condition of crops.

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The point isn't to replicate human brains Meyerson says and this isn't about
replacing human thinking with machine thinking. "Rather, in the era of
cognitive systems, humans and machines will collaborate to produce better
results-each bringing their own superior skills to the partnership. The
machines will be more rational and analytic. We'll provide the judgment,
empathy, morale compass and creativity."
One of IBM's 5 in 5 predictions last year had a cognitive system component
to it as well. IBM said the idea was to tie your brain to your devices.
"If you just need to think about calling someone, it happens. Or you can
control the cursor on a computer screen just by thinking about where you
want to move it. Scientists in the field of bioinformatics have designed
headsets with advanced sensors to read electrical brain activity that can
recognize facial expressions, excitement and concentration levels, and
people's thoughts without them physically taking any actions. Within five
years, we will begin to see early applications of this technology in the
gaming and entertainment industry. Furthermore, doctors could use the
technology to test brain patterns, possibly even assist in rehabilitation from
strokes and to help in understanding brain disorders," IBM stated.
Other predictions from last year included:
No passwords: You will never need a password again because of what
IBM calls "multi-factor biometrics." Smart systems will be able to use retina
scans and other personal information in real-time to make sure whenever
someone is attempting to access your information, it matches your unique

biometric profile. To be trusted, such systems should enable you to opt in or

out of whatever information you choose to provide. Your biological makeup is
the key to your individual identity, and soon, it will become the key to
safeguarding it. You will no longer need to create, track or remember
multiple passwords for various log-ins. Imagine you will be able to walk up to
an ATM machine to securely withdraw money by simply speaking your name
or looking into a tiny sensor that can recognize the unique patterns in the
retina of your eye, IBM said.
Digital divide? In five years, the gap between information haves and
have-nots will narrow considerably due to advances in mobile technology.
There are 7 billion people inhabiting the world today. In five years there will
be 5.6 billion mobile devices sold -- which means 80% of the current global
population would each have a mobile device.
No more junk? In five years, unsolicited advertisements may feel so
personalized and relevant it may seem spam is dead and spam filters will be
so precise you'll never be bothered by unwanted sales pitches again, IBM
said. IBM pointed out that it is developing technology that uses real-time
analytics to make sense and integrate data from across all the facets of your
life such as your social networks and online preferences to recommend
information that is only useful to you.
More power: Advances in renewable energy technology will allow
individuals to collect all sorts of kinetic energy -- walking, bicycling -- which
now goes to waste, and use it to help power our homes, offices and cities.
Imagine attaching small devices to the spokes on your bicycle wheels that
recharge batteries as you pedal along. You will have the satisfaction of not
only getting to where you want to go, but at the same time powering some
of the lights in your home, IBM said.
Follow Michael Cooney on Twitter @nwwlayer8 and on Facebook.
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IBM

Michael Cooney Online News Editor

Cooney is an Online News Editor and the author of the Layer 8 blog, Network
World's daily home for the not-just-networking news. He has been working
with Network World since 1992. You can reach him at mcooney@nww.com.

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906 days ago
yahoo-JTFIDE3MASHEA47KXILQWJHEYI
The pitiful thing is IBM not only has among the poorest records for
predictions, they absolutely have the worse one in commercialization.
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