Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Trade Finance
Almanac
2013
Published by TRADE FINANCE
TRADE FINANCE
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CONTENTS
ASIA PACIFIC
47
Country profiles
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Myanmar
Pakistan
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam
Agency contact details
74
85
Australasia
Australasia: An EFIC perspective
Dougal Crawford, Senior
Economist, EFIC
89
The New Zealand Exporting
Environment Chris Chapman,
Rebecca Holleman & Tim
Robertson, NZECO
92
Country profiles
95
Australia
New Zealand
Agency contact details
97
99
CONTENTS
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Agency contact details
AMERICAS
134
183
REFERENCE
SMBC Trade Finance Overview
SMBC Global Directory
2012 Event Gallery
Trade Finance Calendar of
Industry Events 2013
IMF World Economic Growth
Projections
227
227
235
250
253
256
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Editors note
Welcome to the SMBC Trade Finance Almanac 2013,
sponsored by Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporations
Global Trade Finance Department and produced by Trade
Finance Magazine.
Trade finance has retained its elevated status in the world of
banking, and in the policy thinking of many governments
looking to boost economic growth.
In this years almanac we have partnered with Euromoney
Country Risk (ECR), to produce a snapshot of country
risk based on the views of over 400 expert economists
gathered from the Euromoney Country Risk Survey. Live
data can be found at www.euromoneycountryrisk.com, and
an explanation of the methodology and sovereign ratings
can be found in the first section of the almanac. ECR data is
supplemented here by country data from the IMF and a
short piece of commentary.
I hope you enjoy this trip around a selection of the worlds
key trading economies, and the editorial contributions of a
number of the most important industry groups,
multilaterals, development banks and official agencies in the
trade finance space.Thank you to the Berne Union,
SWIFT, IFC, ICC, Sinosure, ADB, EFIC, NZECO, EBRD,
Afreximbank, EDC, Miller & Chevalier, BNDES, and IDB
for the time and effort spent preparing articles.
A special thank you also to the team at SMBCs Global
Trade Finance Department for their editorial and
organisational input namely Hiroshi Minoura, Eli
Hassine,Toshio Ishizuka, Mini Roy, Hiromitsu Otsu, Kaoru
Furuya, John Turnbull, Donar Tejada, Daniel Minzer,
Sooyeon Lee, and Noah Herman.
We hope that you find the SMBC Trade Finance Almanac
2013 an interesting and useful tool, and remember that this
is just a sample of what is on offer in the pages of Trade
Finance Magazine each month, and daily at
www.tradefinancemagazine.com.
Oliver OConnell
Editor
Trade Finance Magazine
Euromoney Institutional Investor plc, 2013. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any
means without prior written permission of the publisher. Although Euromoney Institutional Investor plc has made every effort to
ensure the accuracy of this publication, neither it nor the sponsors can accept any legal responsibility whatsoever for consequences
that may arise from errors or omissions. Neither Euromoney Institutional Investor nor the sponsors can be held responsible for
investment decisions arising from the data and opinions expressed within this publication.
www.tradefinancemagazine.com
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FOREWORD
Foreword
By Hiroshi Minoura, Deputy President, Head of International Banking Unit, SMBC
Following the developments of Global Banking and Trade Finance
in 2012, we look to 2013 and beyond with renewed optimism, as
global financial markets in large part continue to recover. In line
with the above, SMBCs International Division is being driven by a
key concept: Conservatively Aggressive. Among other things, this
phrase implies that SMBC is focusing on the quality of transactions
in order to continue our involvement in innovative and market
leading mandates across the globe.
Hiroshi Minoura
Deputy President,
Head of International
Banking Unit, SMBC
In particular, Trade Finance has been a key driver for our growth. Alongside the
products offered by our Global Trade Finance Department including Export and
Agency Finance, Commodity Finance, Supply Chain Finance and Trade Finance for
Financial Institutions, we are eager to connect exporters with importers and suppliers
with buyers in order to augmen their vital trade flows.
Global Trade Finance continues its path of growth (world merchandise trade volume as
of April 2012 was estimated at US$18 trillion1) as new countries, particularly those in
expanding markets, have become active participants in the global supply chain. South
and Southeast Asia is gradually becoming an important supplier of goods, while China
is simultaneously demonstrating signs of a more technologically driven economy. The
expansion of our supplier base has become an important driver of business growth for
Supply Chain Finance. In addition, the expanding markets of Latin America and Africa
are providing many interesting opportunities for key infrastructure/development
investments that require long term financing with Official Export Credit Agencies.
These long term investments will form the cornerstone of a very substantial amount of
future economic growth and development for the world.
The 2013 issue of the SMBC Trade Finance Almanac includes
updated country risk profiles for more than 70 countries in
addition to articles regarding our product focus across the
regions in which SMBC has an active presence.
We wish to thank both Trade Finance Magazine and
Euromoney Country Risk, for their contribution to the
completion of this 2013 SMBC Trade Finance Almanac.
Eli Hassine
Toshio Ishizuka
NOTE
1:World Trade Organization Press/659, April 2012
background
where
world
international trade grew by 20%,
according to UN statistics. The ST
insurance capacity provided by
members, as measured by the
amount of credit limits extended to
exporters at a given point in time,
stood at more than $880 billion at
the end of 2011, similar to precrisis levels. Total MLT transactions
under cover in the books of Berne
Union members at the end of 2011
amounted to $583 billion, the
highest level ever.
10
Peter Jones was appointed Berne Union Secretary General in May 2012. Previously he was Chief
Executive Officer of the African Trade Insurance Agency and held senior positions at the Multilateral
Investment Guarantee Agency and Export Development Canada, following a successful banking
career.
The Berne Union is the leading association for export credit and investment insurance worldwide,
working for cooperation and stability in cross-border trade and investment, providing a forum for
professional exchange among its members.
Berne Union
27-29 Cursitor Street
London EC4A 1LT
United Kingdom
Tel: +44 (0)20 7841 1110
Fax: +44 (0)20 7430 0375
E-mail bu-sec@berneunion.org
11
A hallowed industry
Thierry Snchal
Senior Policy Manager,
International Chamber
of Commerce (ICC)
With very profitable business lines, trade finance is the oil that
powers the engine of global economic growth. This is an invaluable
contribution to the market economy. As the Global Head of Trade Finance from a
major bank recently said, trade finance has always had a certain elevated status in the
banking world and it has not been a high-risk transaction. Trade finance is a business
built on real underlying transactions by companies that make real goods that are
moved from one place to another, so real people can consume them in the real world.
Compared with other financial markets, trade finance deals mainly in short-term
maturities; the security is held in the underlying goods moved in the transaction. The
Trade Register published by the ICC confirmed anecdotally that trade finance is a safe
business. The soon-to-be-released ICC report, Global Risks Trade Finance 2013, will
show that out of nearly 8.1 million short-term trade finance transactions from 2008 to
2011, fewer than 1,800 defaulted. This equates to a default rate of a mere ~0.02% on a
transaction basis. What is more, the likelihood of default is consistently low across all
products, with average transaction default rate of 0.035% across the entire product
suite. The ICC report furnishes compelling evidence that trade finance is still a low
risk banking activity.
12
A welter of regulations
In the wake of the financial crisis, the number of regulations is rising seemingly
exponentially. While many regulatory changes have already been implemented or
proposed, the regulatory future remains unclear. For example, harmonization of Basel 3
principles is a major problem for policy makers and regulators, because different
countries are adopting different standards. Over the next several years, the regulatory
burden may not only worsen, regulations may become more difficult to put into action,
and thus lose their effectiveness. Some banking executives and policymakers think the
new Basel 3 framework will seriously damage the provision of trade finance services.
Concerns are growing that (i) because of the higher capital requirements for trade
finance, banks will move away from the trade finance market, into products that generate
greater returns; (ii) inconsistencies in the implementation of the regulatory regime across
countries will create competitive arbitrage opportunities for some financial institutions
and may affect the domiciling of banks; and (iii) by not treating trade finance as a lowrisk asset class, the new Basel capital framework may unduly raise trade finance costs.
13
14
Source: JPM
Source: JPM
15
Regulation will become more burdensome, so profit margins will be lower than
before the financial crisis.
2.
3.
4.
New entrants in the trade finance market will act as a double-edged sword.Trade
facilitation programs operated by MDBs will provide much needed liquidity.
However, growth of these programs will heighten competition for some services,
such as the provision of guarantees, that historically have been the exclusive
purview of commercial banks. Eventually, new partnerships between MDBs and
commercial banks will be forged to service some markets.
5.
Securization will provide opportunities for the trade finance industry to look
beyond traditional bank sources of trade finance.
These are some of the major trends that will shape the market for trade finance. How
they evolve over time will determine the future of the industry. Despite these
challenges, the future is not necessarily bleak. Global banks may find ways to thrive in a
more complex world. But in the near future, global trade finance will be structured
and operate differently than it did just a few years ago. Industry leaders will have to be
more creative and innovative to control costs and raise profits and returns in a fastmorphing world.To serve customers better, banks will have to understand them better.
A rosy outlook is not off the cards. A major challenge for the industry is the lack of
data timely enough and detailed enough to better understand and closely monitor
trade finance metrics. ICC is committed to bridging this information gap through its
market intelligence reporting. In the quest for greater efficiency by the industry, ICC is
the right business partner. To that end, ICC will release its next report, Rethinking
Trade & Finance 2013 when the ICC Banking Commission meets in Lisbon, 16 to18
April 2013. The report contains data on international trade flows for 2012 and takes a
forward look at what trade finance markets will look like from now until 2018.
16
As a development finance
institution, IFC was in a unique
position to bring together private oil
marketing companies, state-owned
enterprises, the government, an
international trading company and a
European bank to efficiently serve
all of the countrys energy needs
under a well-organized and
transparent tender process.
Like many of its neighbours, Mauritania grapples with a severe trade imbalance and
relies on imports to provide much-needed food and fuel to its people. Now the
country requires massive additional agricultural resources to feed a hungry population
and energy resources to feed the machinery and vehicles that provide essential services
to the industries upon which the economic growth has been founded.
This reliance on goods from overseas leaves Mauritania at the whim of shifts in the
17
18
19
20
IFC
IFC Headquarters USA
International Finance Corporation
2121 Pennsylvania Ave., N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
USA
Switchboard: 202.473.1000
www.ifc.org
Business Development
Global Banks
Danny Ip, Principal Business Development
Officer
Tel: +852 2509 8534
Email: KMIp@ifc.org
Zuberoa Mainz, Business Development
Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 5573
Email: ZMainz@ifc.org
Management Team
Georgina Baker, Director, Global Trade &
Supply Chain Solutions
Tel: +1 202 473 3175
Email: GBaker@ifc.org
Sub-Saharan Africa
Gboyega Songonuga, Regional Head
Tel: +27 11 731 3133
Email: GSongonuga@ifc.org
21
Product Development
Trade Portfolio Solutions (GTLP &
CCFP)
Nevin Turk, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 458 4786
Email: NTurk@ifc.org
Inho Lee, Senior Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 458 2709
Email: ILee@ifc.org
Fang Chen, Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 0720
Email: FChen@ifc.org
Global Warehouse Finance Program
(GWFP)
Makiko Toyoda, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 458 0142
Email: MToyoda@ifc.org
Global Trade Supplier Finance
(GTSF)
Priyamvada Singh, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 458 4786
Email: PSingh3@ifc.org
Working Capital Systemic Solutions
(WCSS)
Juan Andres Mosquera, Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 458 5152
Email: JMosquera@ifc.org
Structured Trade & Commodity
Finance
Yasmin Saadat, Program Head
Tel: +1 202 473 6391
Email:YSaadat@ifc.org
Benito Zapata, Senior Investment Officer
Tel: +1 202 473 9070
Email: BZapata@ifc.org
Lili Wang, Financial Analyst
Tel: +1 202 458 9626
Email: LWang14@ifc.org
22
Advisory Services
Gimhani Talwatte Seneviratne, Global
Head,Trade Advisory
Tel: +27 11 731 3005
Email: GTalwatte@ifc.org
23
ECA NEWSLETTER
FINANCIAL INTELLIGENCE FOR GLOBAL TRADE
ECA Newsletter
www.tradefinancemagazine.com/ECA
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For more information contact Cezar Rozmus on +44 (0) 207 779 8032 or email crozmus@euromoneyplc.com
Dealogics 2012 results reveals that total global trade finance volume stood at $171
billion in 2012, down 5% from $180.9 billion in 2011, but slightly ahead of 2010
volume of $170.5 billion.
Activity also fell in 2012 to 718 deals, down 36% on 2011 when 1,116 deals were
reported. Excluding sole-bank loans, trade finance volume increased to $139.1 billion
in 2012, up 3% on 2011 ($135.6 billion).
ECA financing volume reached $114 billion via 416 deals in 2012, up on the $69.7
billion raised 2011. ECA guarantees activity fell to 357 deals in 2012 from 414 in
2011. In contrast, volume recorded an upward trend, rising 9% year-on-year to $75.7
billion in 2012 from $69.2 billion in 2011.
Pre-export finance loan volume recorded the lowest yearly volume since 2004 ($8.5
billion) with $11.7 billion via 36 deals in 2012.
Readers are reminded that the tables on the following pages are compiled by Dealogic and not
Trade Finance Magazine. For full recognition of deal activity banks are kindly requested to
deal directly with Dealogic, as well as for further information on deal and league table parameters.
25
26
MLAsofAllTradeFinance(Includingsolebankloans)2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
11,821
2
HSBC
10,627
3
JPMorgan
7,026
4
Citi
6,725
5
ING
6,673
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
6,067
7
Mizuho
5,917
8
BNP Paribas
5,727
9
Deutsche Bank
5,531
10 SG Corporate & Investment Banking
4,945
Total
171,034
Deals
91
103
46
64
67
72
60
68
61
45
718
% Share
6.9
6.2
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.2
2.9
100
ArrangersofAllTradeFinance(Includingsolebankloans)2012
Pos. Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
11,958
2
HSBC
10,512
3
JPMorgan
7,142
4
Citi
6,481
5
ING
6,362
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
6,102
7
Mizuho
5,693
8
BNP Paribas
5,498
9
BBVA
4,467
10 Deutsche Bank
4,425
Total
171,034
Deals
99
108
51
71
69
78
62
71
174
66
718
% Share
7.0
6.2
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.3
3.2
2.6
2.6
100
MandatedLeadArrangersofECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
2
HSBC
3
JPMorgan
4
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
5
Mizuho
6
Citi
7
ING
8
Deutsche Bank
9
Santander
10 BNP Paribas
Total
Deals
59
74
33
56
45
36
26
32
25
39
416
% Share
8.2
7.3
5.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
3.7
3.0
2.9
2.9
100
Value $m
9,355
8,292
6,205
5,033
4,951
4,795
4,163
3,431
3,326
3,248
113,962
MandatedLeadArrangersofECAFinancing(ex.Aircraft&Shipping)2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
7,919
2
HSBC
5,855
3
Mizuho
4,862
4
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
4,223
5
Citi
3,543
6
Deutsche Bank
3,148
7
Santander
3,047
8
BNP Paribas
2,686
9
ING
2,635
10 SG Corporate & Investment Banking
2,153
Total
94,409
Deals
47
62
44
41
24
28
21
33
18
18
305
% Share
8.4
6.2
5.2
4.5
3.8
3.3
3.2
2.9
2.8
2.3
100
MandatedLeadArrangersofTradeFinanceLoans2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
637
2
RBS
553
3
HSBC
547
4
BNP Paribas
529
5
Standard Chartered Bank
507
6
ING
407
7
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
358
8= Rabobank
347
8= Deutsche Bank
347
10 Citi
332
Total
8,488
Deals
7
4
6
4
6
4
3
3
3
5
29
% Share
7.5
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.0
4.8
4.2
4.1
4.1
3.9
100
MandatedArrangersofStructuredCommodityFinance2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
724
2
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
630
3
Natixis
476
4
Deutsche Bank
413
5
BNP Paribas
360
6
ING
331
7
HSBC
311
8
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
274
9
Credit Agricole CIB
259
10 Wells Fargo Securities
240
Total
6,327
Deals
4
6
6
3
4
5
3
4
3
1
22
% Share
11.4
10.0
7.5
6.5
5.7
5.2
4.9
4.3
4.1
3.8
100
MandatedLeadArrangersofTradeFlowBusiness2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
BBVA
2,147
2
ING
1,771
3
Standard Chartered Bank
1,764
4
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
1,711
5
Natixis
1,629
6
Citi
1,600
7
HSBC
1,408
8
RBS
1,394
9
Deutsche Bank
1,342
10 BNP Paribas
1,316
Total
37,723
Deals
113
32
31
21
21
22
19
14
23
19
217
% Share
5.7
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.3
4.2
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
100
27
MandatedLeadArrangersofSupplyChainFinance2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Chang Hwa Commercial Bank Ltd
719
2
Mega International Commercial Bank
569
3
Santander
544
4
BNP Paribas
414
5
Natixis
332
6
BBVA
244
7
GE Capital Markets Inc
175
8= SinoPac Securities Corp
150
8= Hua Nan Commercial Bank Ltd
150
8= First Commercial Bank Co Ltd
150
Total
4,816
Deals
3
2
3
3
1
21
1
1
1
1
41
% Share
14.9
11.8
11.3
8.6
6.9
5.1
3.6
3.1
3.1
3.1
100
MandatedLeadArrangersofEuropeanECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
HSBC
1,693
2
DNB Bank ASA
986
3
Santander
902
4
Citi
800
5
ING
707
6
Credit Suisse
551
7
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
512
8
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
508
9
Mizuho
267
10 Nordea Markets
244
Total
29,661
Deals
11
9
4
7
6
3
4
7
2
3
133
% Share
7.6
4.4
4.0
3.6
3.2
2.5
2.3
2.3
1.2
1.1
100
MandatedLeadArrangersofAsiaPacific(exJapan)ECAFinancing2012
Pos. Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
3,186
2
HSBC
2,452
3
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
1,970
4
Mizuho
1,958
5
Citi
1,531
6
JPMorgan
1,446
7
Bank of China Ltd
1,206
8
ANZ
941
9
Mega International Commercial Bank
754
10 Bank of Taiwan
690
Total
37,676
Deals
25
25
30
26
9
12
6
11
13
12
142
% Share
8.5
6.5
5.2
5.2
4.1
3.8
3.2
2.5
2.0
1.8
100
28
MandatedLeadArrangersofLATAM&CaribbeanECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
2,648
2
JPMorgan
2,453
3
Santander
1,762
4
Mizuho
1,192
5
HSBC
1,105
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
846
7
BBVA
729
8
Deutsche Bank
529
9
Citi
399
10 BNP Paribas
220
Total
15,513
Deals
11
8
14
7
17
8
18
5
5
2
71
% Share
17.1
15.8
11.4
7.7
7.1
5.5
4.7
3.4
2.6
1.4
100
MandatedLeadArrangersofMiddleEast&AfricanECAFinancing2012
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
Value $m
1
JPMorgan
1,564
2
BNP Paribas
1,508
3
HSBC
1,388
4
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
684
5
Citi
565
6
ING
557
7
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
428
8
Deutsche Bank
333
9
Standard Chartered Bank
279
10 Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
266
Total
10,470
Deals
5
12
10
4
5
2
7
7
4
2
49
% Share
14.9
14.4
13.3
6.5
5.4
5.3
4.1
3.2
2.7
2.5
100
Deals
12
7
8
5
3
3
3
3
10
4
56
% Share
6.0
5.3
4.6
4.4
4.1
3.6
3.6
3.2
3.2
3.1
100
Value $m
1,595
1,389
1,213
1,159
1,085
954
940
851
835
808
26,466
29
ECABackedFinancingRankings2012KEXIM
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
HSBC
2
DNB Bank ASA
3
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
4= Commerzbank Group
4= ABN AMRO Bank
6
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
7
Mizuho
8
Credit Suisse
9
Standard Chartered Bank
10 ANZ
Total
Value $m
676
583
456
310
310
286
191
121
86
71
5,615
Deals
2
3
3
2
2
3
3
2
2
1
12
% Share
12.1
10.4
8.1
5.5
5.5
5.1
3.4
2.2
1.5
1.3
100
ECABackedFinancingRankings2012COFACE
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
HSBC
2
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
3
Credit Agricole CIB
4
Citi
5
SG Corporate & Investment Banking
6
JPMorgan
7
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
8
ANZ
9
ING
10 UniCredit
Total
Value $m
1,472
1,185
1,126
1,039
984
843
814
811
792
727
20,674
Deals
8
7
6
4
4
10
4
2
2
1
33
% Share
7.1
5.7
5.5
5.0
4.8
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.5
100
ECABackedFinancingRankings2012NEXI
Pos. Mandated Lead Arranger
1
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group
2
Mizuho
3
Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group
4
Citi
5
Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Holdings Inc
6= Standard Chartered Bank
6= SG Corporate & Investment Banking
8= UniCredit
8= Shinsei Securities Co Ltd
8= National Australia Bank
Total
Value $m
2,287
1,846
1,822
919
861
792
792
727
727
727
20,578
Deals
17
12
16
4
3
3
3
1
1
1
38
% Share
11.1
9.0
8.9
4.5
4.2
3.9
3.9
3.5
3.5
3.5
100
Source: Dealogic
30
24-Jul-2012
Lead banks
Borrower
Cedit date
Top10GlobalTradeFinanceDeals2012
Industry
Project Financing
ECA Financing
Project Financing
ECA Financing
Use of
proceeds
Mexico
Chemicals
Project Financing
ECA Financing
Australia
Japan
Deal
nationality
3,193
3,791
8,500
16,000
Total deal
value ($m)
31
32
7-May-2012
Indonesia
Switzerland
India
China
Switzerland
Deal
nationality
26-Mar-2012 Vitol SA
Lead banks
Borrower
Cedit date
Top10GlobalTradeFinanceDeals2012
Use of
proceeds
Chemicals
Leisure &
Recreation
2,050
2,063
2,579
Total deal
value ($m)
Project Financing
ECA Financing
Refinancing
General Corporate Purposes
Trade Financing
1,729
1,883
Project Financing
ECA Financing
Trade Flow
Industry
Source: SWIFT
Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence
33
2012 Q4 highlights
Compared to Q4 of 2011, trade finance traffic volume in Q4 2012 shows a slight
decrease (-2.79%). The decrease in category 7 (-2.14%) is less important than in
category 4 (-4.81%). But looking at the MT700 only, it shows an increase of +1.74%.
On the import side (MT 700 sent), North America (+12.16%) and AP (+5.12%) show
the 2 strongest increases while Europes Eurozone (-8.3%) and the Middle East (11.84%) show the strongest decreases.
On the export side (MT 700 received), North America (+10.89%) and Africa
(+8.69%) show the 2 strongest increases while Europes Non-Eurozone (-5.29%) and
the Middle East (-9.07%) show the strongest decreases.
When comparing Q4 2012 to Q3 2012, Q4 shows a decrease (-2%) compared to
previous quarter. The decrease in category 7 (-1.51%) is less than in category 4 (3.53%), but looking at MT700 only, it shows an increase of +4.65%.
Category 7 represents 76% of trade finance traffic, while the category 4 is 24% (75%25% in 2011).
Source: SWIFT
Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence
34
Source: SWIFT
Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence
35
Source: SWIFT
Source: SWIFT
Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence
36
Source: SWIFT
Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence
37
Source: SWIFT
Extract your own statistics with the SWIFT product: Watch. Find more on: http://www.swift.com/business_intelligence
38
39
40
41
42
43
Dec 12
ECR
Score
2011
Ranking
Dec 11
ECR
Score
2012
Ranking Country
Dec 12
ECR
Score
2011
Ranking
Dec 11
ECR
Score
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
89.87
87.29
86.84
86.81
86.78
84.54
82.64
82.43
81.82
81.82
81.1
80.88
80.63
78.29
74.65
74.37
73.75
73.48
72.89
72.6
71.99
71.63
70.4
69.67
69.05
69
67.79
67.27
66.56
66.31
66.21
65.54
64.84
63.79
63.43
62.4
60.54
60.17
59.88
58.9
58.76
58.36
57.96
57.58
57.43
1
4
2
7
3
6
5
10
8
9
12
13
11
14
15
18
16
20
19
17
21
29
27
24
25
23
32
36
35
28
33
26
30
38
34
51
22
39
41
44
42
31
47
69
43
91.17
87.84
88.51
85.08
88.40
85.10
85.36
83.68
84.71
84.70
82.14
82.12
82.33
81.59
76.28
75.24
76.19
73.20
75.20
76.10
72.27
68.44
69.42
71.07
70.37
71.60
66.23
63.58
64.67
69.27
66.13
69.83
67.19
63.18
65.44
56.22
71.66
62.93
61.77
58.69
59.71
66.56
57.69
49.28
58.72
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
57.26
57.12
57.01
56.95
56.95
56.88
56.79
56.74
56.22
55.69
55.47
55.01
54.07
53.43
52.68
52.3
51.92
51.23
50.67
50.62
50.39
50.08
49.47
49.31
48.99
46.95
46.78
45.95
45.78
45.78
45.69
44.8
44.02
43.61
43.55
43.33
42.48
41.07
40.63
40.2
39.23
39.21
39.16
38.92
38.89
46
75
49
52
45
37
54
48
53
50
63
60
40
55
59
56
65
64
58
61
67
62
57
66
73
71
68
79
72
74
70
77
76
90
85
86
78
80
81
92
106
101
87
82
83
58.18
46.48
56.73
55.79
58.26
63.28
55.19
57.59
55.38
56.61
50.77
52.69
62.27
54.60
53.07
54.47
50.26
50.67
53.53
52.61
49.63
52.27
54.27
49.88
47.49
47.83
49.44
45.17
47.62
46.72
48.90
45.99
46.36
40.96
42.62
42.60
45.71
44.43
43.50
39.44
35.85
37.45
42.44
42.89
42.74
Norway
Luxembourg
Singapore
Sweden
Switzerland
Finland
Denmark
Hong Kong
Netherlands
Canada
Australia
Germany
New Zealand
Austria
United States
Chile
Taiwan
Qatar
United Kingdom
France
Belgium
Kuwait
Estonia
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Malta
Oman
Saudi Arabia
Israel
Korea South
United Arab Emirates
Japan
Poland
Malaysia
Macau
Bahamas
Slovenia
Brazil
China
Mexico
Colombia
Cyprus
Iceland
Barbados
Bermuda
Ireland
Trinidad & Tobago
Turkey
Peru
South Africa
Italy
Lithuania
Panama
Thailand
Botswana
Brunei
Bahrain
Spain
Croatia
Russia
India
Uruguay
Bulgaria
Indonesia
Portugal
Mauritius
Costa Rica
Hungary
Philippines
Latvia
Romania
Namibia
Tunisia
Morocco
Kazakhstan
Sri Lanka
Ghana
Jordan
Armenia
El Salvador
Azerbaijan
Georgia
Mongolia
Paraguay
Algeria
Bolivia
Gabon
Macedonia (FYR)
Serbia
Vietnam
45
46
2012
Ranking Country
Dec 12
ECR
Score
2011
Ranking
Dec 11
ECR
Score
2012
Ranking Country
Dec 12
ECR
Score
2011
Ranking
Dec 11
ECR
Score
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
38.71
38.29
38.01
37.97
37.58
37.53
37.41
37.08
36.96
36.75
36.41
36.22
35.9
35.73
35.53
35.16
34.88
34.65
34.1
34.03
33.95
33.72
33.69
33.66
33.25
33.17
32.72
32.45
32.09
32.02
31.96
31.92
31.46
31.35
30.79
30.65
30.6
29.82
29.82
29.55
29.19
28.99
28.6
28.43
28.4
28.39
28.12
28.11
100
89
98
88
102
124
108
91
97
84
116
107
113
109
111
94
96
110
103
115
104
95
99
105
114
93
122
121
128
134
120
117
129
119
130
112
118
126
167
131
146
132
160
144
123
127
151
150
37.45
41.70
37.95
42.29
37.06
31.77
35.69
40.11
37.99
42.67
33.47
35.76
34.21
35.38
34.91
39.01
38.67
35.24
36.72
33.91
36.54
38.95
37.71
36.05
34.19
39.31
32.35
32.43
29.63
28.20
32.56
33.35
29.32
32.72
29.16
34.87
33.11
29.88
13.44
28.77
24.00
28.38
16.14
24.50
32.12
29.80
21.45
21.46
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
185
27.9
27.86
27.79
27.69
27.49
27.4
27.23
26.86
25.68
25.05
24.3
24.29
24.12
23.88
23.78
23.43
23.36
23.27
23.02
22.99
22.7
22.42
20.75
19.81
19.64
19.18
18.91
18.48
18.19
16.46
15.83
15.1
14.98
13.85
12.71
12.61
12.38
11.41
11.28
9.23
8.53
7.64
5.72
5.12
4.21
2.41
0
0
147
161
165
138
125
133
135
137
142
155
136
157
171
179
139
180
140
141
163
143
152
145
154
158
159
153
166
149
162
148
156
169
174
164
168
176
172
173
170
182
177
175
178
181
183
184
185
186
22.01
15.79
13.70
27.60
30.01
28.26
28.10
28.05
25.10
20.69
28.05
19.34
10.34
7.60
27.55
5.60
26.88
26.42
14.66
24.91
21.09
24.30
20.77
18.37
18.20
20.82
13.68
21.97
15.34
22.00
20.53
11.18
9.38
13.80
13.24
8.40
9.62
9.40
10.99
5.00
8.00
8.62
7.70
5.10
4.20
2.40
0.00
0.00
Angola
Nigeria
Honduras
Seychelles
Albania
Burkina Faso
Guatemala
Tanzania
Zambia
Lebanon
Suriname
Mozambique
Papua New Guinea
Dominican Republic
Ecuador
Kenya
Uganda
Liberia
Ukraine
Greece
Madagascar
Argentina
Belize
Venezuela
Montenegro
Egypt
Moldova
Malawi
Cameroon
Guyana
Bangladesh
Mali
Senegal
Rwanda
Jamaica
Lesotho
Gambia
Iraq
Grenada
Dem. Rep. Of the Congo
Benin
Sierra Leone
St Vincent & Grenadines
Congo
Nicaragua
Togo
Cte dIvoire
Libya
Yemen
St Lucia
Bhutan
Guinea-Bissau
Pakistan
Belarus
Ethiopia
Guinea
Niger
Dominica
Iran
Cambodia
Maldives
Burundi
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Mauritania
Syria
Sudan
Fiji
Kyrgyz Republic
Uzbekistan
Nepal
Swaziland
Turkmenistan
Haiti
Afghanistan
Cuba
Myanmar
Samoa
Zimbabwe
Tajikistan
Cape Verde
Antigua & Barbuda
Somalia
Vanuatu
Tonga
Korea North
Chad
Solomon Islands
Laos
Equatorial Guinea
Sao Tome & Principe
Djibouti
Eritrea
Marshall Islands
Central African Republic
Micronesia (Fed. States)
New Caledonia
ASIA-PACIFIC
47
Despite the continuing global economic uncertainty, trade financing within Asia is
boosting banks' earnings. Asian banks have been increasing trade finance activities in
the region even in the teeth of the eurozone crisis.
The push by Asian financial institutions into the market suggests that trade finance
estimated at $10 trillion a year globally and supporting more than 80% of global trade
remains available in Asia. This represents a significant shift, as European Banks have
historically dominated this sector.
Many countries within Asia have been working to expand their economies and increase
their strategic positions in international trade and foreign investment. China has become
the third largest country in terms of total trade volume, second largest in exports and
third largest in imports. China is one of the major exporters for various products and a
significant importer of energy, natural resources and agricultural products. Trade links
between Asia, Europe and Americas have grown robustly. As a result, Asia is increasingly
considered the factory of the world, with expanding cross-border trade and foreign
investment becoming a core part of the manufacturing process.
Furthermore, Asian banks leverage relationships with firms in developing markets to
extend their global networks. At the heart of banks infrastructure, global technology
platforms have enabled them to maximise trade finance opportunities presented by the
rapidly developing economies. In addition, with economic activity shifting from the
West to the East and trade linkages increasing between China and other ASEAN
economies, more Asian banks are providing trade financing services to their clients.
This is an attractive business as most trades are short-term and transactionally secured.
Over the past few years, Supply Chain Finance has gained prominence among
corporate CFOs as an important tool with which to manage working capital and to
drive efficiencies throughout the procurement and manufacturing processes. We are
seeing a fairly broad-based increase in supply chain activity in our European, Americas
and Asian regions. There has been a growing acceptance among banks and other
48
49
JAPAN
It has now been more than four years since the collapse of Lehman Brothers an event
that drove the economy into what is now commonly described as the Global Financial
Crisis. Severely affecting the world economy as it did, and without a clear-cut sign of it
ending anytime soon (not least given the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis)the
effects continue to roil the financial industry. Indeed, it has led to the downgrade and
restructuring of many banks, and has placed severe (albeit slowly abating) doubts over
what were once considered secure sovereign bonds.
Regarding financial institutions, major banks in countries such as the United States
and Japan have asset sizes comparable to their host countrys GDP. In Europe, however,
major banks have asset sizes that far exceed their host countrys GDP, meaning that
they had sufficient capitalization to weather the crisis. Developed country central
50
JAPAN
banks, being very liquid, are no
longer pumping capital into
emerging markets, but instead
preserving their funds to inject
inwardly, into their own declining
economies and struggling banks.
51
JAPAN
Japanese companies are having a challenging time competing on cost while
simultaneously offering high-quality products, particularly regarding China and South
Korea. Their continuing heavy reliance on domestic markets is widely considered to
be a losing strategy, given the countrys shrinking population, emigrating youth, and
aging pensioners. An older population will by definition mean fewer active workers,
less consumption per capita, and a smaller base of labor with which to produce wealth.
The conclusion, drawn by global markets if not the countrys companies themselves, is
that Japanese companies will have to expand internationally in order to grow. This
means continued adherence to a determined business focus, or, Ganbaru, that has
made the Japanese business model distinct.
Japan very much needs the expansion and growth arising from Asia, and from
emerging markets in particular. In fact, technologies can be leveraged to foster
integration and multiply the benefits arising from this incorporation. We can already
see Japanese companies that have set up production bases and offices in Asian
countries, such as Nissan in Indonesia, Honda in Thailand, etc. We can expect much
more of this to occur in the emerging markets in the near future.
The Fukushima Nuclear plant incident had many lasting negative effects on industrial
Japan. Socio-political aspects aside, the rising cost of energy has forced Japanese
industry, which relies heavily on electricity and is thus heavily affected by its cost, to
reconsider its manufacturing policy. Competitors in China and South Korea have
brought this issue further to the fore by producing high-quality products at lower cost.
In addition, reliance on the shrinking domestic market is increasingly convincing
Japanese companies to expand internationally to grow.
Aside from building manufacturing bases overseas to engage in one platform of a lowcost strategy, Japanese companies have recently been active in a more collective
approach that is having the effect of increasing capital flows out of the country:
namely, forming strategic alliances, creating regional and global networks and joint
ventures, as well as M&A.
Facing an increasingly dynamic, complex, and competitive environment, Japanese
companies have begun to reach outside of Japan. The diversification of a global
portfolio infused with the Japanese Ganbaru business practice is becoming more
prominent. One might therefore expect to hear more and more about Japanese
companies resurfacing globally in the near future.
52
53
COUNTRY PROFILE
Japan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.5
5,488.6
11.2
24.3
134.3
0.0
5.0
128.0
29.6
215.3
204.0
3.7
2011
-0.8
5,866.5
6.3
-0.1
182.5
0.0
4.6
127.9
30.6
229.6
119.3
2.0
2012
2.2
5,984.4
5.7
2.7
201.2
0.0
4.5
127.6
31.1
236.6
95.4
1.6
2013
1.2
5,997.3
4.3
4.2
215.0
0.0
4.4
127.3
31.5
245.0
137.8
2.3
2014
1.1
6,162.5
5.5
6.4
218.2
0.0
4.5
127.1
32.8
246.2
157.0
2.5
2015
1.2
6,323.7
5.8
6.3
223.8
0.0
4.4
126.7
33.6
247.6
148.4
2.3
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
65.54
69.83 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
54
2012
6.7
4
6.4
5.1
3.1
50.33
8.2
7.7
7.7
6.8
6.9
6.2
72.62
8.1
3.6
7.56
7.13
65.93
6.23
7.92
7.92
2011
7.1
4
6.6
5.5
3
52.43
8.2
7.8
7.8
6.9
7.4
6.2
73.79
8.6
4
7.49
7.39
68.86
6.59
8.54
9.94
55
CHINA AND
NORTH ASIA
SHANGHAI, CHINA
China, Korea, Mongolia, Hong Kong and Taiwan are never far from the headlines in Trade
Finance, be it in reference to infrastructure projects in rapidly expanding economies
globally, shipbuilding, supply chain, or the internationalisation of the renminbi. SMBCs
Global Trade Finance Department is regionally based out of Hong Kong and its network
of subsidiaries includes Shangai, Beijing, Seoul, and Taipei. For more information see the
SMBC Global Directory.
Contents
How can ECAs help to reduce the volatility of the cyclical shipping market?
Xu Guang, Underwriter at China Export & Credit Insurance Corporation (Sinosure)
Country profiles
China
Hong Kong
Mongolia
South Korea
Taiwan
Agency contact details
56
2012 was a bad year for shipping. For many shipowners, the freight rate just covers the
OPEX (operating expenditure), and any excess is barely enough to cover the interest,
not to mention the principal. A number of shipping companies went bankrupt, such as
OSG and K-line; some companies applied to lending banks for restructuring or
amortization of existing loans. The shipping market is freezing cold and couldnt be
any worse. So whats wrong with shipping?
To answer the question, we need to look back at shipping history.
57
58
59
60
COUNTRY PROFILE
China
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
10.45
5,930.39
20.09
27.77
163.56
20.42
4.10
1,340.91
21.31
33.54
237.62
4.01
2011
9.24
7,298.15
9.54
8.77
235.75
25.12
4.10
1,347.35
22.66
25.84
201.72
2.76
2012
7.83
8,250.24
8.80
5.00
238.27
24.74
4.10
1,353.82
23.16
22.16
190.68
2.31
2013
8.23
9,038.66
8.80
7.20
231.63
23.41
4.10
1,360.32
23.29
19.57
222.69
2.46
2014
2015
8.51
8.54
9,925.54 10,928.08
11.35
10.38
10.89
11.40
225.32
219.85
22.77
22.22
4.10
4.10
1,366.86 1,373.42
23.39
23.59
17.28
14.95
278.36
348.01
2.80
3.19
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
59.88
61.77 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Employment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
5.6
6.9
6.4
6.4
6.7
64.08
6.3
3.7
3.5
4.1
5.1
6.8
49.26
5.3
4.8
6.72
4.99
54.63
5.49
7.92
7
2011
5.8
7.5
6.3
6.2
7
65.69
6
3.8
3.5
4
5.3
7
49.45
5.4
5
6.63
5.03
55.17
5.61
7.92
8
61
COUNTRY PROFILE
2010
7.1
224.2
17.3
16.7
15.3
0.4
4.3
7.1
22.5
34.6
12.4
5.5
2011
5.0
243.7
4.7
4.2
18.8
0.6
3.4
7.1
24.4
33.8
12.9
5.3
2012
1.8
258.0
-1.2
-1.8
19.6
0.6
3.4
7.2
21.6
33.1
10.5
4.1
2013
3.5
273.7
6.5
6.3
20.0
0.6
3.3
7.2
20.8
31.0
10.5
3.8
2014
4.3
293.3
7.8
7.7
20.0
0.6
3.2
7.3
21.4
30.4
12.1
4.1
2015
4.3
314.8
7.8
7.7
20.0
0.5
3.2
7.4
22.1
29.7
14.2
4.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
82.43
83.68 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
62
2012
7.6
7.1
7
7.7
9
76.65
8.9
8
8.7
8.9
6.8
7
80.61
8.1
7.6
8.55
7.55
79.67
8.04
9.58
9.67
2011
7.6
7.4
7.6
7.9
9.1
79.33
8.8
8.5
8.7
8.9
7.3
7
82.18
8.1
7.8
8.57
7.62
80.11
8.23
9.58
9
COUNTRY PROFILE
Mongolia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
6.4
6.2
2011
17.5
8.7
2012
12.7
9.9
2013
15.7
12.9
2014
11.8
16.1
2015
4.7
18.9
0.7
0.2
9.9
2.8
36.5
1.1
0.3
7.7
2.8
39.7
1.3
0.3
6.8
2.8
37.1
1.3
0.3
6.1
2.9
33.8
1.3
0.3
5.4
2.9
32.0
1.5
0.3
4.6
3.0
31.2
-0.9
-14.9
-2.8
-31.8
-3.1
-31.4
-1.3
-10.1
-0.1
-0.7
0.4
2.3
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
41.07
44.43 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.2
5.8
4
5.8
3.7
46.88
4.6
3.8
4.2
4.8
3.8
4.5
42.81
2.7
4.6
3.38
3.13
34.38
4.13
2.08
4.5
2011
4.9
6.1
4.6
5.5
3.5
49.29
4.4
3.9
5.1
5
4.4
4.6
45.93
3.1
4.5
3
3.14
34.29
4.68
2.08
5.67
63
COUNTRY PROFILE
South Korea
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
6.3
1,014.9
17.3
14.7
68.7
0.0
3.7
49.4
22.7
33.4
29.4
2.9
2011
3.6
1,116.2
6.5
9.5
100.8
0.0
3.4
49.8
23.4
34.2
26.5
2.4
2012
2.7
1,151.3
2.9
3.4
105.6
0.0
3.3
50.0
23.5
33.5
22.3
1.9
2013
3.6
1,234.0
8.8
9.0
107.7
0.0
3.3
50.2
23.5
31.6
21.1
1.7
2014
4.0
1,321.9
11.2
10.0
107.2
0.0
3.3
50.5
23.6
29.4
18.1
1.4
2015
4.0
1,417.1
12.2
10.6
107.0
0.0
3.3
50.7
23.6
27.2
14.7
1.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
66.31
69.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
64
2012
5.8
6.4
6.3
7.1
6.5
64.38
7.2
6.1
7.7
6.5
6.5
6.2
67.04
7.2
5.5
7.45
5.45
63.96
6.52
7.29
6.67
2011
5.8
6.6
6.2
7.4
6.4
64.67
7.2
6.2
7.5
6.6
6.5
6
66.78
7.2
5.5
7.43
5.49
63.92
7.57
7.29
8.67
COUNTRY PROFILE
Taiwan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
10.7
430.2
28.3
25.1
38.0
14.2
5.2
23.2
18.0
38.1
39.9
9.3
2011
4.0
466.4
-0.5
5.2
44.5
17.4
4.4
23.2
18.8
40.5
41.6
8.9
2012
1.3
466.1
1.6
1.6
35.0
14.0
4.5
23.4
17.5
41.7
32.0
6.9
2013
3.9
469.3
4.8
5.8
35.2
11.7
4.3
23.6
18.0
40.9
34.2
7.3
2014
4.5
504.0
5.2
6.4
37.8
12.6
4.2
23.9
18.0
39.8
35.2
7.0
2015
4.7
545.8
5.4
6.6
40.9
13.6
4.1
24.1
18.0
37.5
38.7
7.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
73.75
76.19 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
7.2
6.4
7.6
7
6.8
69.8
7.8
6.8
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.4
73.17
7.6
6.7
7.61
7.14
72.65
8.35
7.92
7.33
2011
7.3
6.8
7.5
7.3
7
71.87
7.8
6.9
7.4
7.3
7.4
7.4
73.54
7.6
6.7
7.51
7.14
72.32
7.6
7.92
9.67
65
Hong Kong
Hong Kong Export Credit Insurance Corporation (ECIC)
2nd Floor, Tower 1, South Seas Centre,
75 Mody Road, Tsimshatsui East,
Kowloon, Hong Kong
Tel:
(+852) 2732 9988
Fax:
(+852) 2722 6277 / 6411
Email: info@hkecic.com
Website: www.hkecic.com / www.ec-link.com.hk
66
South Korea
Korea Trade Insurance Corporation (K-sure)
2nd to 16th Floors, Seoul Central Building,
136 Seorin-dong, Jongno-gu,
Seoul 110-729, South Korea
Tel:
(+82) 2 399 6800
Fax:
(+82) 2 399 6598
Website: www.ksure.or.kr
Taiwan
The Export-Import Bank of the Republic of China (Eximbank)
8th Floor, 3 Nanhai Road,
Taipei, Taiwan
Tel:
(+886) 02-2321-0511
Fax:
(+886) 02-2394-0630
Email: eximbank@eximbank.com.tw
Website: www.eximbank.com.tw
67
68
South and South East Asia is one of the most vibrant trade finance regions, with
burgeoning manufacturing and intra-Asian trade; official agency-backed infrastructure
and commodity extraction and processing projects; and commodity-rich exporting
nations such as Indonesia. Regionally, SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has
an office in Singapore, and its network includes Bangkok, Kuala Lumpur, Hanoi and
Jakarta. For more information see the SMBC Global Directory.
Contents
Facilitating Asian Trade in 2013 Janet Hyde, Victoria Tyo and Edward Faber, the
relationship management team of the Asian Development Banks Trade Facilitation Programme,
discuss the latest developments in Asian trade finance market.
Country profiles
Bangladesh
India
Indonesia
Malaysia
Myanmar
Pakistan
Philippines
Singapore
Sri Lanka
Thailand
Vietnam
69
As the developed economies lurched from crisis to crisis, credit appetite remained
subdued and regulatory uncertainties persisted, the western world had a difficult year in
2012. By contrast the economies of Asia, although not without their problems, continued
to be dynamic and forward looking and it is against this backdrop that the Trade Finance
Programme (TFP) of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) moves into 2013. Established
ten years ago, the programmes period of greatest growth was in the wake of the 2008
financial crisis as credit to the region, especially from the European banks, was suddenly
withdrawn. By 2012 private sector support for trade remained difficult for Asias most
challenging markets and, compounded by the prospect of tougher regulatory
requirements, the ADB formally extended the programme indefinitely.
The TFP fills market gaps in trade finance by providing guarantees and loans through
over 200 partner banks in support of imports and exports to, from and within the
Asian region. In 2012, it handled over 2000 transactions totaling almost $4 billion.
Over 80% of those transactions supported intra-regional trade and almost as much
again involved SMEs thereby meeting two key strategic aims for the ADB. Intraregional trade increased by 60% year on year while there was 138% growth in
transactions for SME buyers alone. This sector is often regarded as the engine of
economic growth yet is one that still faces the greatest challenge in obtaining finance.
In Pakistan, because the countrys oil requirement was adequately met by the
commercial banking community, the TFP was able to focus its resources on the smaller
ticket transactions in support of SMEs.
In 2012, by far the most active countries in terms of the value of trade volumes
supported under the programme were Vietnam and Pakistan followed by Uzbekistan,
Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. It is countries such as these for which the programme
anticipates the need for sustained trade support in the medium-term as demand for oil,
capital goods for infrastructure projects, foodstuffs, pharmaceuticals and consumer
goods continues unabated in an unpredictable credit environment. .
In 2012, ADB is in the early stages of expanding the programme to three new
70
In a broader sense, though, regulatory requirements are set to become more rigorous
in years to come and banks will have to put more capital aside in order to conduct just
the same level of business as in the past. This could restrict the availability of credit
extended to the Asian region in terms of bank and country limits because if the home
economy is weak and banks remain reluctant or unable to lend, they will not be
generating sufficient income with the consequence that lending will have to be
curtailed instead. And its not just the regulatory issues that could impact the
availability of bank and country limits to Asias developing countries and with it the
71
72
73
COUNTRY PROFILE
Bangladesh
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
6.4
106.2
17.1
19.6
3.3
--
2011
6.5
113.9
10.7
11.3
4.9
--
2012
6.1
118.7
8.3
5.9
6.0
--
2013
6.1
126.7
9.1
8.1
6.5
--
2014
6.7
137.4
10.7
12.5
6.8
--
2015
7.1
149.7
11.9
13.4
7.1
--
146.9
11.5
148.5
11.9
150.0
13.0
151.6
13.9
153.3
14.4
154.9
15.1
1.7
1.6
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.3
-0.3
-0.3
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.4
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
31.96
32.56 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
74
2012
3
6.3
4
4.5
3
41.93
5
2.2
1.7
3.3
1.8
3.8
29.81
0.7
1.6
2.14
0.57
12.69
5.12
2.5
1.5
2011
3.1
6.8
3
4
3.3
39.93
4.3
2.2
2.2
3.5
2.1
3.2
28.94
0.7
0.9
1.7
0.2
8.77
5.36
2.5
3.17
COUNTRY PROFILE
India
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
10.1
1,630.5
14.0
19.5
100.7
38.1
2011
6.8
1,826.8
11.0
12.9
141.8
56.3
2012
4.9
1,946.8
1.3
3.7
164.4
68.6
2013
6.0
2,117.3
3.3
6.3
177.5
77.8
2014
6.4
2,314.7
7.4
9.5
186.8
85.9
2015
6.7
2,547.0
9.0
10.2
195.0
94.2
1,190.5
18.7
68.0
-52.2
-3.2
1,206.9
18.5
67.0
-62.8
-3.4
1,223.2
18.5
67.6
-74.5
-3.8
1,239.3
18.5
66.7
-69.1
-3.3
1,255.6
18.7
65.6
-65.8
-2.8
1,272.1
18.7
65.1
-64.8
-2.5
(Source: IMF
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
52.3
54.47 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6
6.3
5.3
5.6
4
54.49
6.4
2.9
5.1
5.2
4.5
5
49.01
5.1
6.5
3.77
4.98
51.01
5.1
4.38
6.67
2011
6.4
6.7
5.8
5.1
4.3
56.7
6.6
2.6
5.6
5.1
4.6
5.5
50.54
5.2
6.3
3.76
5.08
51.04
5.42
4.38
7.25
75
COUNTRY PROFILE
Indonesia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
6.2
708.4
28.6
10.0
24.3
15.7
7.1
237.6
17.0
26.9
5.1
0.7
2011
6.5
846.5
14.6
6.1
37.1
19.6
6.6
241.0
17.8
24.5
1.7
0.2
2012
6.0
894.9
14.4
1.8
40.9
19.7
6.2
244.5
18.2
23.9
-18.9
-2.1
2013
6.3
1,006.9
8.1
5.2
42.1
19.4
6.1
248.0
18.1
22.2
-24.0
-2.4
2014
6.5
1,188.0
8.1
6.8
41.9
18.6
6.0
251.5
17.8
20.9
-27.7
-2.3
2015
6.6
1,372.5
8.1
6.4
41.8
17.8
5.5
255.1
17.6
19.8
-34.4
-2.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
50.67
53.53 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
76
2012
5.4
6.7
5.1
5.5
6.2
57.95
5.4
3.2
4.8
4
4.3
5.5
45.5
4.5
5.7
4.18
4.53
47.3
4.56
4.17
6.17
2011
5.6
7.1
5.5
5.4
6.4
60.06
5.4
3.7
5.1
4.6
4.7
5.4
48.33
4.9
5.8
4.31
4.81
49.46
4.87
3.75
7.38
COUNTRY PROFILE
Malaysia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
7.2
246.8
16.6
7.9
13.9
21.1
3.3
28.3
23.9
51.0
27.3
11.1
2011
5.1
287.9
6.1
5.6
18.7
26.3
3.1
28.6
21.9
52.9
31.7
11.0
2012
4.4
307.2
6.5
1.8
19.1
27.6
3.1
29.0
24.4
53.0
23.1
7.5
2013
4.7
340.0
8.5
7.9
18.9
28.1
3.0
29.5
24.1
53.5
23.4
6.9
2014
5.0
367.7
9.1
8.7
19.0
29.1
3.0
30.0
23.7
53.9
23.6
6.4
2015
5.0
397.7
8.7
8.4
18.2
28.8
3.0
30.5
23.3
54.4
23.7
6.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
63.79
63.18 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6.3
6.4
6.9
7.6
4.3
63
7.4
4.9
6.6
6
6.4
5.4
61.26
6.7
7
7.47
6.58
69.39
4.59
6.25
8.75
2011
6
6.6
6.2
7.3
4.9
61.86
7.1
5.3
6.6
6.3
6.5
6
63.23
6.6
6.7
7.1
6.46
67.07
4.91
6.25
7.75
77
COUNTRY PROFILE
Myanmar
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.3
45.4
9.8
15.8
1.0
-4.0
61.2
6.9
53.0
-0.6
-1.3
2011
5.5
51.4
5.2
-3.6
1.2
-4.0
62.4
5.7
53.5
-1.3
-2.6
2012
6.2
54.0
3.5
1.2
1.5
-4.0
63.7
6.1
43.5
-2.4
-4.4
2013
6.3
59.3
16.2
13.1
1.6
-4.0
65.0
6.7
40.3
-2.4
-4.0
2014
6.4
63.9
17.4
16.7
1.6
-4.0
66.3
7.6
38.6
-1.8
-2.9
2015
6.5
68.8
11.5
3.1
1.8
-4.0
67.6
7.5
37.6
-2.7
-4.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
18.48
21.97 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
78
2012
3.7
5.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
37
3.4
2.4
1.9
1.9
1.9
3.4
24.41
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2011
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
4.4
44
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
27
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.67
COUNTRY PROFILE
Pakistan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.1
176.5
-2.0
0.6
9.7
1.2
5.6
171.7
14.4
61.6
-3.9
-2.2
2011
3.0
210.2
3.1
8.1
11.4
1.7
6.0
175.3
12.8
60.2
0.2
0.1
2012
3.7
230.5
1.4
-0.3
13.6
1.0
7.7
178.9
12.8
62.4
-4.5
-2.0
2013
3.3
236.6
6.5
7.1
14.5
1.6
9.2
182.6
13.6
63.0
-4.0
-1.7
2014
3.5
243.8
4.3
4.4
15.1
1.7
10.7
186.3
13.6
61.6
-6.2
-2.5
2015
3.5
252.7
4.3
4.4
15.9
1.8
12.0
190.0
13.9
59.5
-7.2
-2.9
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
27.49
30.01 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
2.6
4.1
3.9
3.9
2.1
33.17
3.4
2.1
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
27.73
2.2
3.1
2.82
2.32
26.08
4.79
0.31
1.5
2011
3.1
4.9
2.6
3.9
1.8
32.67
3
3
2.7
4
3.3
2.3
30.53
3.3
3.5
3.3
3.3
33.42
4.83
0.63
2.25
79
COUNTRY PROFILE
Philippines
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
7.6
199.6
22.5
26.7
9.6
1.4
7.3
94.0
17.0
43.5
8.9
4.5
2011
3.9
224.8
-8.0
-9.2
12.6
1.8
7.0
95.9
17.3
41.9
7.1
3.1
2012
4.8
240.7
4.9
5.7
13.9
2.0
7.0
97.7
17.3
41.5
7.1
3.0
2013
4.8
258.5
5.9
5.1
14.9
2.1
7.0
99.7
17.6
39.7
6.7
2.6
2014
5.0
278.3
6.9
5.7
15.6
2.2
7.0
101.6
17.6
38.1
6.8
2.5
2015
5.0
299.2
6.6
5.6
16.3
2.3
7.0
103.7
17.5
36.7
6.6
2.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
49.31
49.88 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
80
2012
4.8
6.1
6.4
5.7
5.6
57.17
5.3
3.5
4.5
4.4
3.8
4.5
43.34
4.4
5
4.71
5.08
48.13
4.13
3.54
6.67
2011
4.2
6.2
5.9
5.5
4.9
53.57
5
3.8
5.6
5
4.6
4.5
47.37
4.9
5.7
4.64
5.57
52.14
4.55
3.33
6.5
COUNTRY PROFILE
Singapore
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
14.8
227.4
16.2
19.1
84.8
75.9
2.2
5.2
22.0
101.2
55.5
24.4
2011
4.9
259.8
-0.1
2.6
119.2
108.7
2.0
5.3
24.9
107.6
57.0
21.9
2012
2.1
267.9
3.6
3.0
120.1
109.1
2.1
5.4
22.8
106.2
56.1
21.0
2013
2.9
277.9
4.6
4.3
120.0
109.4
2.1
5.5
23.0
103.4
57.5
20.7
2014
3.6
289.1
4.8
4.3
121.1
110.3
2.1
5.6
23.0
100.8
56.9
19.7
2015
3.7
301.5
5.1
4.5
123.0
111.9
2.1
5.7
22.9
97.8
56.1
18.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
86.84
88.51 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
8.3
6.1
8
7.9
8.5
77.73
9.4
9.3
9
9.1
8.5
8.4
89.32
9
7.8
8.91
8.09
84.32
9.42
10
8.88
2011
8.2
6.7
8.2
8
8.6
79.25
9.3
8.9
9
9.1
8.3
8.2
87.94
8.8
7.9
8.94
8.19
84.69
10
10
9.88
81
COUNTRY PROFILE
Sri Lanka
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
7.8
49.6
21.6
16.7
3.0
0.2
4.9
20.4
14.9
2011
8.3
59.2
6.1
7.3
4.3
0.4
4.9
20.5
14.5
2012
6.8
59.8
11.0
6.7
4.9
0.4
4.9
20.7
14.3
2013
6.7
64.6
10.9
6.9
5.2
0.4
4.9
20.8
14.7
2014
6.5
70.1
11.0
7.2
5.1
0.4
4.9
21.0
14.9
2015
6.5
76.5
10.4
7.2
5.4
0.5
4.9
21.1
15.1
-1.1
-2.2
-4.5
-7.7
-3.2
-5.4
-3.1
-4.7
-3.1
-4.5
-3.1
-4.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
45.69
48.90 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
82
2012
5.1
6.5
3.8
6.6
3.3
50.5
5.5
3.8
4.5
5
4.5
4.1
45.66
4.8
7
4.91
5.41
55.22
4.25
2.08
5
2011
5.1
6.7
4.1
6.7
3.5
52
4.8
4.6
5.4
5.1
5.2
4.7
49.48
7
7.6
5.45
6.83
67
4.67
2.08
5
COUNTRY PROFILE
Thailand
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
7.8
318.9
25.4
15.8
31.9
0.0
1.0
63.9
22.4
42.6
13.2
4.1
2011
0.1
345.7
11.5
9.9
43.0
0.0
0.7
64.1
22.7
41.7
11.9
3.4
2012
5.6
377.0
12.4
8.3
46.4
0.0
0.7
64.5
21.0
44.2
-0.7
-0.2
2013
6.0
412.7
8.4
8.6
48.7
0.0
0.7
64.8
20.4
46.2
0.3
0.1
2014
4.5
437.3
7.9
8.4
48.7
0.0
0.7
65.2
20.3
48.8
3.6
0.8
2015
4.6
461.0
7.0
7.3
48.8
0.0
0.7
65.6
20.2
49.9
5.7
1.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
56.22
55.38 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6.1
6.1
6.5
7.1
5.2
62.18
6.2
4.2
4.9
4.8
4.9
4
48.29
5.4
6.2
6.16
5.82
59.05
5.09
5.42
6.67
2011
6.2
5.6
6.3
6.8
5.2
60.15
5.9
4.3
5
5
5
3.7
48.37
5.5
6.3
6.01
6.22
59.88
5.29
5.42
6.33
83
COUNTRY PROFILE
Vietnam
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
6.8
103.6
5.9
6.7
6.8
5.0
4.3
88.3
29.6
54.0
-4.3
-4.1
2011
5.9
122.7
-3.9
3.8
11.2
7.2
4.5
89.3
27.7
50.4
0.2
0.2
2012
5.1
137.7
19.5
19.3
12.0
9.6
4.5
90.4
26.7
50.4
0.5
0.3
2013
5.9
151.9
13.6
12.6
12.5
10.0
4.5
91.5
26.9
50.6
-1.3
-0.9
2014
6.4
165.0
10.3
12.0
12.8
10.0
4.5
92.6
26.4
50.8
-1.8
-1.1
2015
6.8
179.2
10.5
13.0
13.1
10.1
4.5
93.7
26.4
50.5
-2.2
-1.3
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
38.89
42.74 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
84
2012
2.9
6.2
3.4
6.7
3.4
45.14
4
3
3.1
3.5
3.5
5.3
37.43
4.1
6.1
4
4.79
47.5
4.55
2.08
2.75
2011
3.2
6.8
3.1
6.5
3.5
46.25
3.9
3
3.4
3.3
3.7
5.9
38.73
4.5
6.6
4.17
4.79
50.31
5.17
2.08
4.88
India
Export Credit Guarantee Corporation of India (ECGC)
10th Floor, Express Towers, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021, India
Tel:
(+91) 22 66590500 / 09
Fax:
(+91) 22 66590517
Email: webmaster@ecgc.in
Website: www.ecgc.in
Indonesia
PT. Asuransi Ekspor Indonesia (Persero) Asuransi ASEI
Menara Kadin Indonesia Building, 22nd Floor,
Jl. H R. Rasuna Said X-5 Kav. 2-3, Jakarta 12950 Indonesia
Tel:
+62 21 5790 3535
Fax:
+62 21 5790 4031/32
Email: asei@asei.co.id / bu-asei@asei.co.id
Website: www.asei.co.id
85
Malaysia
Export-Import Bank of Malaysia Berhad (Exim Bank)
8th Floor, UBN Tower, No. 10, Jalan P. Ramlee,
P.O. Box 13028, 50796 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Tel :
+60 3-2034 6666
Fax :
+60 3-2034 6699
Website: www.exim.com.my
Pakistan
Pakistan Re-Insurance Company
PRC Towers, 32-A Lalazar Drive, Moulvi Tamizuddin Khan Road,
PO Box 4777, Karachi, Pakistan
Tel:
(+92) 21 920 2908-14
Fax:
(+92) 21 920 2921/2
Website: www.pakre.org.pk
Philippines
Philippine Export-Import Credit Agency
17th Floor, Citibank Tower, Citibank Plaza,Valero St.,
Makati City, 1226 Philippines
Tel:
(632) 885-4700
Fax:
(632) 848-7307
Email: jrricafrente@philexim.gov.ph
Website: www.philexim.gov.ph
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Export Credit Insurance Corporation (SLECIC)
Level 4, Export Guarantee House, No 42 Navam Mawatha, Colombo 2, Sri Lanka
Tel:
(+94) 4 719410-14 / 5 378 161-65
Fax:
(+94) 4 719400
Email: info@slecic.lk
Website: www.slecic.lk
86
Thailand
Export-Import Bank of Thailand (EXIM Thailand)
EXIM Building, 1193 Phaholyothin Road, Phayathai, Bangkok 10400, Thailand
Tel:
(+662) 271 3700, 278 0047, 617 2111
Fax:
(+662) 271 3204
Website: www.exim.go.th
87
AUSTRALASIA
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA
Contents
Australasia: An EFIC perspective Dougal Crawford, senior economist at EFIC
The New Zealand exporting environment: An NZECO perspective Chris Chapman,
Rebecca Holleman and Tim Robertson, NZECO
Country profiles
Australia
New Zealand
Agency contact details
88
AUSTRALASIA
2012 in review
Australasia grew by over 3% in 2012, the fastest pace of growth since 2007 (Figure 1).
However, underneath the aggregate number the year was a tale of two halves. Growth
was strong in the first half, pushed along by high commodity prices and reconstruction
following natural disasters in 2011. In the second half, growth slowed sharply, as the
outlook for the world economy weakened, the currency remained high, and domestic
confidence slumped.
The regions exports actually fell over 2012 on the back of lower commodity prices
(Figure 2). In the case of iron ore and coal Australias two main exports prices fell
quite sharply. With projects battling rising costs and a still high exchange rate, some
mining companies scaled back investment plans and closed high cost mines. Overall,
though, resource investment remained very strong, as work on the large pipelines of
LNG projects in Australia and PNG continued. In fact, Australasia was the worlds largest
project finance market in 2012 with US$42 billion worth of financing committed.
Activity in Australasias manufactured and service industries remained very subdued
throughout 2012. Interestingly, the fall in commodity prices and lower domestic
interest rates was not matched by weaker currencies, so resource and non-resource
89
AUSTRALASIA
exporters alike struggled. The weak demand and persistently high dollar is leading to a
re-evaluation of business strategies for some exporters. Some are buying new
equipment, others restructuring or closing, still others outsourcing and offshoring.
Source: BREE
90
AUSTRALASIA
seems to have achieved a soft landing. Commodity prices have also firmed. Reflecting
the higher optimism, risk spreads have narrowed, funding conditions have improved,
and equity markets have rallied strongly.
Pronouncements that the regions resource boom is 'over' are premature. Yes,
commodity prices have rolled over and resource investment is nearing its peak. But
prices are still very high compared to historical averages and the pipeline of projects
with committed financiers and customers is a large one $260 billion in Australia
alone. Besides, as the investment boom comes off, an export boom will get underway.
According to the Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics, the Australian
governments official forecasting agency, the investment boom could triple the volume
of mineral and energy exports by 2020.
The outlook for Asia which consumes 70% of Australasian exports looks relatively
good. The growth slowdown through most of 2012 appeared to bottom late in the
year. Trade, production, and capital flows have strengthened and China grew by nearly
8% yoy in the December quarter of 2012, up from 7.4% yoy in the September quarter.
Meanwhile, the Japanese authorities have recently announced more aggressive
monetary and fiscal policy to try and kick start growth and escape deflation.
As good as all this sounds, 2013 will not be without risk. First, more still needs to be
done to put public and private finances on a sustainable path in the North Atlantic. In
particular, budget negotiations in the US remain hostage to partisan politics, while the
political and economic costs of prolonged austerity could prove too great for the
hardest hit countries in the eurozone. Second, while Chinese growth has stabilised, the
economys underpinnings remain dangerously unbalanced and too heavily reliant on
investment. Finally, local currencies could prove to be less of a shock absorber to
changing external conditions than in the past, leaving exports more exposed to any
worsening in external demand.
About EFIC
Export Finance and Insurance Corporation (EFIC) provides tailored finance solutions to help
Australian businesses overcome the financial barriers they face when expanding their export activities.
As the Australian Governments export credit agency, we help Australian-based businesses to win
and finance export, offshore investment and onshore export-related opportunities when their
bank is unable to provide all the support they need.
We work directly with businesses and their banks to provide loans, guarantees, bonds and
insurance products which can be tailored to meet the needs of both large and small enterprises.
EFIC is uniquely placed to do this: we have over 50 years of export finance and industry expertise,
contacts at financial institutions around the globe, the strength of our AAA credit rating and an
entrepreneurial business approach to make export and eligible
export-related deals happen.
We practise responsible lending and uphold social and
environmental best practice in the transactions we support.
91
AUSTRALASIA
Similar to experiences across advanced economies, the last four years has been a
challenging time for New Zealand businesses. However New Zealand's exports have
been affected to a lesser degree than many other countries, in the four years to March
2012, New Zealands goods exports grew at an average rate of 5.6%. This is partly
because of New Zealands dependence on primary commodity exports which remain
in demand, and because the main market for manufactured exports, Australia, has also
been less affected by the global financial crisis.
New Zealands diversification of its export markets also helped offset the impacts of
the global financial crisis. For example, forty years ago over two thirds of all New
Zealand exports were directed solely to Europe and North America. When the global
financial crisis hit in 2008, less than a quarter of New Zealands total exports were
being exported to these two markets.
New Zealand currently generates around 30% of its GDP from exports, which is lower
than the 40-50% ratios of GDP for similar-sized OECD countries. New Zealands
exports remain predominately driven by land-based, low-value commodities.
However, opportunities exist for companies to leverage off New Zealands agricultural
and food-safe reputation, and to expand into higher-value food and beverage goods to
meet increasing consumer demand. New Zealand exporters have increased their focus
around the Pacific Rim countries and in particular the rapidly growing middle classes
in emerging Asian countries.
Export opportunities are also facilitated by improving trade access via free trade
agreements. Nearly half of New Zealands exports currently go to countries with
which New Zealand has a free trade agreement and this percentage is expected to
grow as new trade agreements are negotiated. As an example, New Zealand exports to
China have increased by 160% since a free trade agreement was signed in 2008.
Two key constraints on the growth of New Zealand exporting companies often relate
to their relative small size due to a small domestic market, and secondly, the distance to
their foreign markets which increases transport and market development costs.This is
demonstrated in the illustration below which shows 94% of New Zealands exporters
have annual earnings of $5 million or less.
92
AUSTRALASIA
A key challenge for these small companies is having the financial strength to begin
exporting. The upfront costs of travelling from New Zealand to an international
market and developing an in-market presence can quickly eat into a smaller companys
capital reserves.
Upon finalising an export sale, many New Zealand firms then need to secure
additional capital to produce the quantities that are required by a larger market, as well
as finance the extended credit terms that international buyers are increasingly
demanding.
One way to address this challenge of scale is via collaboration amongst New Zealand
exporters by pooling resources, sharing costs and experiences.There are recent examples
of such collaborative success by firms in New Zealands wine and seafood sectors.
Many New Zealand exporters focus on innovative, niche products and bespoke
solutions. Others are looking to establish themselves into global and regional supply
chains, often focusing on providing design expertise and intellectual property. As an
example, export revenue from specialist ICT for the health and hospital sectors has
been growing. All these products and services typically have higher margins which
help make the fixed costs of exporting from New Zealand easier to overcome.
Over the last two years the New Zealand dollar has remained at historically higher
levels against the US dollar and euro, and this has adversely affected the
competitiveness of many New Zealand exporters. One driver for New Zealands high
93
AUSTRALASIA
dollar has been the high demand
and relative prices for New
Zealands largest exports namely
dairy, meat, wood, and mineral
fuels. For example, export values
for dairy products have risen by
over 60% since 2009. International
demand for these commodities
(particularly from Asias emerging
economies) is forecast to continue
in the medium term, and the New
Zealand dollar is expected to
remain higher as well. This may be
positive for exporters who import
significant part of their export
inputs. However, it may mean exporters have to deal with quality issues from offshore
suppliers, and longer supply lead times requiring greater working capital facilities.
Over this same period the Australian dollar has also significantly strengthened and this
has provided opportunities for New Zealand exporters to be increasingly competitive
when doing business with its closest neighbour and largest export market.
Like many other countries, New Zealand Inc continues to develop and execute
strategies to increase goods and services exports with an aspirational target of 40%
exports to GDP by 2025. Strategies include sustainably increasing productivity across a
variety of sectors, continued international market development, bi-lateral and multilateral free trade agreements, notably with those countries that have growing middle
classes who demand food. Underpinning the 40% target and direct export actions is
work on addressing New Zealands capital markets constraints, innovation and
regulation. However at the end of the day, exporters with growth aspirations,
marketable products and the capacity to execute are required to sell their solutions to
realise New Zealand targets.
About NZECO
The New Zealand Export Credit Office (NZECO) provides financial guarantee and trade credit
insurance products for New Zealand exporters, banks and insurers. Our products help exporters
manage risk and capitalise on trade opportunities around the globe, by enabling them to mitigate credit
risk, offer buyers payment terms and access trade finance.
NZECO is currently located in the Treasury and obligations to third parties are guaranteed by the
New Zealand government through the Minister of Finance.
NZECO's products are intended to extend the capacity of facilities in the private sector. The
Government's maximum liability under the scheme is NZD 740 million.
Contact NZECO on: eco@treasury.govt.nz or +64 4 917 6060
94
COUNTRY PROFILE
Australia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
2.5
1,244.4
14.2
5.5
14.9
9.7
5.2
22.2
31.8
20.5
-35.7
-2.9
2011
2.1
1,486.9
11.4
-1.2
21.5
11.8
5.1
22.4
32.0
24.2
-33.5
-2.3
2012
3.3
1,542.1
7.1
4.3
22.6
11.1
5.2
22.7
33.6
27.1
-63.0
-4.1
2013
3.0
1,598.1
6.1
3.9
23.7
11.6
5.3
23.0
34.3
27.2
-87.9
-5.5
2014
3.2
1,638.9
5.4
5.5
23.3
11.5
5.2
23.3
34.5
26.4
-99.6
-6.1
2015
3.3
1,679.7
4.3
5.3
22.7
11.3
5.1
23.5
34.6
24.7
-100.9
-6.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
81.1
82.14 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
7.7
6.9
7.9
7.4
7.5
74.69
9.3
8.6
8.9
9.1
8.2
7.6
86.27
8
7.7
7.8
6.57
75.02
6.13
10
9.17
2011
7.6
6.9
7.7
7.3
7.3
73.5
9.3
8.5
8.9
9.1
7.9
7.7
85.59
7.7
7.4
7.64
6.59
73.53
7.52
9.79
9.75
95
COUNTRY PROFILE
New Zealand
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.8
140.1
10.6
3.5
4.5
1.5
6.5
4.4
29.3
32.5
-4.8
-3.5
2011
1.3
158.9
6.5
1.7
6.2
2.0
6.5
4.4
29.1
38.2
-6.6
-4.2
2012
2.2
166.9
4.5
3.6
6.7
1.6
6.6
4.5
29.5
38.6
-9.0
-5.4
2013
3.1
174.0
6.0
3.8
6.5
1.5
5.7
4.5
29.5
38.1
-10.2
-5.9
2014
2.7
179.1
5.4
3.7
6.4
1.5
5.1
4.6
30.0
37.9
-11.8
-6.6
2015
2.6
184.8
3.1
2.6
6.4
1.4
4.7
4.6
30.2
36.1
-12.7
-6.9
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
80.63
82.33 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
96
2012
8.1
6.2
7.7
6.6
6.3
69.56
9.6
9.3
9.4
9.1
7.9
8.3
89.39
8.6
7.8
7.47
8.19
80.22
6
9.17
9.75
2011
8.1
6.1
7.6
6.6
5.8
68.5
9.7
9.2
9.3
9.1
8
8.5
89.73
8.5
7.9
7.46
8.15
79.94
7.52
9.58
9.75
New Zealand
The New Zealand Export Credit Office (NZECO)
No 1 The Terrace
PO Box 3724
Wellington
New Zealand
Tel:
(+64) 4 917 6060
Fax:
(+64) 4 917 6956
Email: eco@treasury.govt.nz
Website: www.nzeco.govt.nz
97
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EUROPE
THE MIDDLE EAST
AND AFRICA
99
GTFD Commodity Finance in the EMEA region continues to see strong demand in
the still buoyant commodities market. In particular, demand for raw materials from
China remains at a high, despite recent indications that the Chinese economy may at
last be starting to slow down. SMBC recently made a very significant increase in the
level and diversity of its Chinese risk cover in order to meet existing and future
customers expectations for sales risk cover even more strongly than in the past.
Being able to meet customers requirements for sales risk mitigation also strengthens
SMBCs ability to finance the initial purchase, thereby enabling the bank to support a
deal through its life cycle. This provides a more complete service to the customer, and
allows the bank to have a full overview of the transaction and the opportunity to
provide ancillary services such as hedging and freight loans, over and above the finance
attached to the goods purchase and sale. In order to develop this area of risk mitigation
still further, Commodity Finance has successfully expanded its range of other types of
sales risk coverage tools through the provision of Payment Guarantee and Payment
Receivables discounting lines.
We continue to market our uncommitted bilateral trade finance lines to a wide range
of leading international traders, and to the trading subsidiaries of the larger banks and
integrated energy groups, and to cover the full range of commodity finance markets
including energy, metals & mining, and agribusiness. The bilateral lines managed from
Commodity Finance in London now stand at several billion US dollars. We also take
significant participations in selected committed facilities in 2012 we became a
participant for the first time in Glencores $2.22 billion Borrowing Base Facility, at the
Mandated Lead Arranger level of $150 million.
We consider our ability to provide a one stop service to our clients to be a key element
in maintaining the banks excellent reputation in this market.
100
101
EUROPE
AND THE CIS
London remains one of the pre-eminent centres of trade and commodity finance, and
insurance, reaching beyond the European Union into markets in Eastern Europe,
Russia, the CIS, and beyond into the wider EMEA region and other markets globally.
SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has offices in London, Paris, Milan and
Dusseldorf, and the network includes Moscow. For more information see the SMBC
Global Directory.
Contents
Trade Finance in Eastern Europe and the CIS: A review of 2012 and forecast for 2013
Rudolf Putz, Head Trade Facilitation Programme (TFP), and Marco Nindl, Associate Banker,
TFP at the EBRD (with reference to the EBRDs Transition Report 2012)
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development: a long-term capital
partner in an uncertain environment Lorenz Jorgensen, Director, Head of Loan
Syndications, EBRD
Country profiles
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
102
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine
United Kingdom
Agency contact details
Over the course of 2012, trade finance in Eastern Europe and the CIS has been
characterised by the on-going consequences of the Eurozone crisis. What initially
started in the second half of 2011, where foreign commercial banks started to reduce
the availability of trade finance particularly for smaller and medium-sized banks
continued in 2012 without any signs of easing.
Owing to the limited availability of trade finance limits, general export and import
volumes were subdued in many countries. Countries in Eastern and South-Eastern
Europe which are particularly integrated with the Eurozone area were hardest hit, as
Eurozone banks reduced cross-border lending and withdrew financing from their
subsidiaries in the region, with a corresponding impact on trade finance volume and
the ability to finance international trade. Also the cautious lending approach of western
commercial banks towards importers and banks in Belarus, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
continued, due to on-going political or economic instabilities.
Successfully steering through stormy market conditions, the Baltic states reported a
growth in their trade finance volumes, particularly on the export side which can be
seen as a result of economic reforms and persistently higher productivity relative to
pre-2008 levels. At the same time resource-rich countries such as Mongolia and Russia
continued to report significant demand for import of machinery and investment
goods.
Positive was the 2012 acceptance of Montenegro and Russia to the World Trade
Organisation which will help to reduce trade finance barriers and facilitate the general
trade finance flow with these countries notwithstanding the difficult market
circumstances. A positive development of trade integration of certain CIS countries is
103
104
Rudolf Putz
Head Trade Facilitation Programme
European Bank for Reconstruction & Development
Tel: +44 20 7338 7776
putzr@ebrd.com
www.ebrd.com/tfp
105
106
107
108
109
110
COUNTRY PROFILE
Belgium
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
2.4
472.5
7.0
8.5
39.0
27.2
8.3
10.8
48.6
95.6
6.6
1.4
2011
1.8
514.6
4.1
4.6
56.5
39.9
7.2
11.0
49.4
97.8
-5.1
-1.0
2012
0.0
476.8
-0.9
-0.7
51.7
36.7
7.4
11.0
49.8
99.0
-0.6
-0.1
2013
0.3
475.7
0.4
0.5
51.1
36.4
7.9
11.1
50.3
99.4
1.6
0.3
2014
1.0
486.0
1.5
1.5
51.0
36.3
7.7
11.2
50.8
98.6
4.0
0.8
2015
1.3
496.6
3.4
3.2
52.2
37.2
7.5
11.3
50.8
96.5
5.2
1.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
71.99
72.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6
6
7.7
5.7
5.5
61.73
8.7
8
8.1
7.9
7.8
5.1
75.92
7.9
6.3
7.63
7.04
72.23
6.11
8.54
8.83
2011
6
6.1
7.7
5.6
5.3
61.67
8.8
8.1
8.3
8.2
7.9
4.8
76.72
7.9
6.4
7.69
7.05
72.58
6.86
9.38
7
111
COUNTRY PROFILE
Bulgaria
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
0.4
47.8
-9.7
-0.8
4.5
2.2
10.3
7.5
32.7
14.9
-0.5
-1.0
2011
1.7
53.5
7.1
11.6
5.8
3.0
11.3
7.3
32.4
15.5
0.5
0.9
2012
1.0
50.8
2.6
1.3
6.6
3.3
11.5
7.3
34.4
17.9
-0.2
-0.3
2013
1.5
50.9
2.0
3.5
6.8
3.4
11.0
7.2
34.7
16.4
-0.8
-1.5
2014
2.5
53.4
6.1
6.4
7.4
3.6
10.2
7.2
35.0
18.4
-1.1
-2.1
2015
3.5
56.8
7.6
7.2
8.0
3.8
8.7
7.2
35.4
15.3
-1.8
-3.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
51.23
50.67 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
112
2012
5.6
5.1
6.9
5.3
6.4
58.5
6.5
3.9
5.1
5.2
5.8
6.4
54.74
4.8
4.2
4.67
4.94
46.4
3.31
4.79
4.5
2011
5.6
5
6.7
5.1
6.2
57.06
6.2
3.5
5
4.9
5.1
6.2
51.68
4.5
3.8
4.43
4.63
43.36
3.48
4.79
5.67
COUNTRY PROFILE
Croatia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
-1.4
59.4
-1.6
5.9
3.7
1.5
12.2
4.4
37.8
42.2
-0.6
-1.1
2011
0.0
62.4
2.0
1.8
4.6
1.6
13.7
4.4
36.8
46.7
-0.6
-1.0
2012
-1.1
57.5
-2.0
0.3
4.6
1.7
14.2
4.4
37.0
54.3
-0.7
-1.2
2013
1.0
58.5
1.8
1.7
4.6
1.7
13.3
4.4
37.1
57.0
-0.8
-1.3
2014
1.5
61.0
3.0
2.9
4.5
1.7
12.8
4.4
37.2
59.4
-0.9
-1.4
2015
2.0
63.8
3.4
3.5
4.4
1.7
12.0
4.4
37.2
61.3
-1.2
-1.9
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
53.43
54.60 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
5.7
4
5.1
4.1
4
45.77
6.4
4.7
5.8
5.3
5.6
5.5
55.73
5.9
5.7
5.62
5.12
55.75
7.53
4.38
5.5
2011
5.3
4.3
5.5
4
4.1
46.27
6.2
4.6
5.7
5.4
5.6
5.5
55.17
5.8
6.3
5.46
5.19
56.8
7.44
4.38
6.67
113
COUNTRY PROFILE
Czech Republic
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
2.7
197.7
16.0
16.4
9.7
4.1
7.3
10.5
39.3
37.6
-7.6
-3.8
2011
1.7
215.2
7.5
11.0
12.1
4.9
6.7
10.5
40.3
40.5
-6.3
-3.0
2012
-1.0
193.5
1.2
4.0
16.1
6.1
7.0
10.6
40.3
43.1
-4.6
-2.4
2013
0.8
192.6
3.4
3.2
16.3
6.2
8.0
10.6
41.0
45.0
-4.1
-2.2
2014
2.8
198.1
5.2
5.2
16.2
6.2
7.9
10.6
41.2
45.6
-4.0
-2.0
2015
3.4
205.1
5.2
5.2
16.0
5.9
7.2
10.6
41.2
45.7
-4.2
-2.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
69.67
71.07 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
114
2012
7.7
5.2
7.4
6.2
6.1
65.25
8
6
7.4
7.1
7.3
6.5
70.69
7.1
5.4
6.79
6.79
65.11
7.33
7.71
7.33
2011
7.6
5.8
7.4
6.1
6.1
66
7.9
6.1
7.3
7.3
7.3
6.6
71.08
7.2
5.5
6.85
6.76
65.79
7.18
7.29
9
COUNTRY PROFILE
Denmark
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.3
312.0
3.5
3.2
9.1
13.6
7.5
5.5
53.6
42.9
17.2
5.5
2011
0.8
332.0
5.3
7.0
9.1
13.6
6.1
5.6
54.8
44.1
22.2
6.7
2012
0.5
309.2
3.0
2.2
9.1
13.6
5.6
5.6
54.3
47.1
15.5
5.0
2013
1.2
308.4
5.1
4.1
9.1
13.6
5.3
5.6
54.4
47.6
14.1
4.6
2014
1.8
314.4
3.8
3.7
9.1
13.6
4.5
5.6
52.1
47.8
14.2
4.5
2015
1.8
321.1
3.8
3.7
9.1
13.6
3.8
5.6
52.1
47.9
14.7
4.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
82.64
85.36 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6.7
6.2
7.6
7.5
7.3
70.45
9.3
9.1
8.8
9.1
8.5
8.8
89.47
8.7
7.6
8.78
8.37
83.73
6.95
10
9.35
2011
7.3
6.6
7.9
7.8
7
73.11
9.4
9.4
9.1
9.2
8.6
8.7
90.71
8.8
7.7
8.79
8.18
83.72
8.10
10
9.75
115
COUNTRY PROFILE
Finland
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.3
237.2
6.9
7.5
9.3
5.1
8.4
5.4
53.0
48.6
3.4
1.4
2011
2.7
263.5
5.0
2.0
14.0
7.1
7.8
5.4
53.9
49.1
-3.1
-1.2
2012
0.2
247.2
-1.5
-1.5
14.6
7.5
7.6
5.4
53.0
52.6
-4.0
-1.6
2013
1.3
252.2
2.3
1.6
14.9
7.6
7.8
5.5
53.7
53.9
-4.2
-1.7
2014
2.1
262.9
5.2
4.8
14.9
7.6
7.7
5.5
54.2
54.1
-4.2
-1.6
2015
2.0
272.9
5.2
5.3
14.9
7.6
7.7
5.5
54.3
53.6
-4.2
-1.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
84.54
85.10 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
116
2012
8.4
7.5
7.7
7
7.7
76.42
9.2
8.9
8.7
9
8.5
8.9
88.69
8.3
6.6
8.52
7.6
77.56
7.54
10
9.7
2011
8.5
7.4
7.5
6.7
7.5
75.36
9.3
9.1
8.8
9.1
8.5
8.7
89.09
8.5
6.6
8.52
7.79
78.48
7.92
10
10
COUNTRY PROFILE
France
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.7
2,570.6
8.9
9.6
35.3
0.1
9.7
62.8
49.5
82.3
-40.0
-1.6
2011
1.7
2,778.1
4.9
5.3
46.5
0.1
9.6
63.1
50.8
86.0
-54.2
-2.0
2012
0.1
2,580.4
1.2
2.3
45.8
0.1
10.1
63.4
51.5
90.0
-44.8
-1.7
2013
0.4
2,565.6
1.6
1.2
43.3
0.1
10.5
63.7
52.6
92.1
-43.3
-1.7
2014
1.1
2,621.6
2.5
2.8
42.1
0.1
10.3
64.0
52.6
92.9
-41.0
-1.6
2015
1.5
2,696.9
2.7
4.0
41.1
0.1
9.8
64.3
52.6
92.3
-31.1
-1.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
72.6
76.10 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6.3
5
7
5
5
56.69
8.5
7.3
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.5
76.65
7.4
6.7
8.46
6.46
72.56
6.02
9.79
9.54
2011
6.8
5.4
7.2
5.7
5.5
61.2
8.6
7.5
7.9
7.8
7.8
7.5
78.34
7.4
6.7
8.52
6.94
73.96
6.58
10
10
117
COUNTRY PROFILE
Germany
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.0
3,312.2
11.1
13.7
83.9
4.6
7.1
81.8
43.6
82.4
199.9
6.0
2011
3.1
3,607.4
7.4
7.8
93.6
6.1
6.0
81.8
44.5
80.6
203.9
5.7
2012
0.9
3,366.7
2.8
3.9
100.9
6.2
5.2
81.8
44.5
83.0
182.8
5.4
2013
0.9
3,373.3
3.6
3.1
103.0
6.1
5.3
81.6
44.4
81.5
157.8
4.7
2014
1.4
3,462.0
4.1
3.9
90.6
5.9
5.2
81.5
44.4
79.6
153.2
4.4
2015
1.4
3,548.8
4.1
3.9
86.8
5.6
5.2
81.3
44.3
77.6
154.5
4.4
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
80.88
82.12 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
118
2012
7
6.8
7.5
7.3
7.3
71.75
9
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.1
7.9
83.75
8.4
6.1
8.68
7.77
77.49
6.73
10
9.75
2011
7.1
7
7.5
7.4
7.2
72.55
9
8.5
8.7
8.5
8.3
8.1
85.04
8.4
6.4
8.71
7.87
78.48
7.59
10
9.5
COUNTRY PROFILE
Hungary
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.3
128.6
12.8
14.3
5.9
0.0
11.2
10.0
45.2
81.3
1.6
1.2
2011
1.7
140.3
6.3
8.4
7.8
0.0
11.0
10.0
52.9
80.6
2.0
1.4
2012
-1.0
128.8
2.9
4.2
7.9
0.0
10.9
10.0
45.8
74.0
3.4
2.6
2013
0.8
134.4
4.7
5.3
7.9
0.0
10.5
9.9
45.1
74.2
3.6
2.7
2014
1.6
139.6
6.1
5.6
7.7
0.0
10.4
9.9
45.3
75.3
0.9
0.7
2015
1.7
145.4
6.3
5.6
7.5
0.0
10.3
9.9
45.4
75.9
-0.9
-0.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
49.47
54.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.3
3.8
4.1
4
3.9
40.32
5.7
4.7
5.5
4.8
4.5
6.6
53.25
5.6
4.5
6.34
5.54
54.95
6.34
3.75
5.83
2011
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.1
3.9
43.24
5.6
4.9
6
5.5
4.7
7.1
56.53
5.6
4.6
6.33
5.61
55.38
7.08
4.38
7.33
119
COUNTRY PROFILE
Italy
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.8
2,060.9
12.7
11.6
60.9
16.9
8.4
60.3
46.0
118.6
-73.2
-3.6
2011
0.4
2,198.7
0.4
5.6
76.9
22.4
8.4
60.6
46.1
120.1
-71.7
-3.3
2012
-2.3
1,980.4
-7.3
0.6
71.0
22.4
10.6
60.9
48.3
126.3
-29.2
-1.5
2013
-0.7
1,953.8
0.2
1.0
70.2
22.4
11.1
61.1
48.8
127.8
-26.6
-1.4
2014
0.5
1,982.9
1.5
2.5
68.8
22.2
11.3
61.4
48.8
127.3
-26.0
-1.3
2015
1.2
2,023.7
2.9
3.5
68.5
22.2
11.0
61.6
48.8
125.6
-23.5
-1.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
56.88
63.28 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
120
2012
5.5
3.6
7
3.8
4.1
47.94
7.8
4.4
6.1
5.7
6.4
5
58.98
6.7
5.5
6.89
6.03
62.91
6
5.63
6.9
2011
5.4
4
7.1
4.6
4.3
50.71
7.9
4.4
6.2
5.9
6.6
5.2
60.41
6.9
6.1
6.9
6.44
65.83
6.18
8.13
9
COUNTRY PROFILE
Latvia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
-0.3
24.0
11.5
11.5
1.7
0.5
18.7
2.2
36.2
39.9
0.7
3.0
2011
5.5
28.3
20.7
12.6
2.6
1.0
16.2
2.1
35.9
37.8
-0.3
-1.2
2012
4.5
27.2
7.5
5.9
2.9
1.1
15.3
2.0
38.0
37.4
-0.4
-1.6
2013
3.5
28.1
6.6
5.3
3.0
1.1
13.9
2.0
35.3
40.6
-0.8
-2.8
2014
4.2
29.8
6.1
6.0
3.1
1.2
12.3
2.0
34.1
38.5
-1.0
-3.4
2015
4.2
31.6
6.2
6.0
3.1
1.2
11.2
2.0
32.2
35.0
-1.2
-3.7
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
48.99
47.49 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
5.8
4.8
5.7
4.5
4.1
49.91
6.1
5.9
5.9
6.1
5.2
5.9
58.39
4.8
4.9
5.25
5.44
51.18
0
4.38
7
2011
5
4.9
4.9
3.9
4.5
46.22
6.1
5.9
6.3
6.3
5.6
6.1
60.6
5.4
5
5.26
5.37
52.69
0
4.17
6
121
COUNTRY PROFILE
Netherlands
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.6
781.2
11.1
12.0
73.6
64.7
4.5
16.6
45.5
62.9
55.1
7.0
2011
1.1
838.1
4.2
4.2
101.7
88.4
4.4
16.7
45.3
65.2
70.9
8.5
2012
-0.5
770.2
3.1
3.7
104.9
91.1
5.2
16.8
46.4
68.2
63.5
8.2
2013
0.4
767.1
3.8
3.7
105.7
91.8
5.7
16.8
46.8
70.2
62.6
8.2
2014
1.4
786.4
4.2
4.0
104.0
90.4
5.3
16.9
46.2
71.9
62.9
8.0
2015
1.8
807.9
5.4
5.0
102.9
89.4
5.0
16.9
46.3
72.7
61.3
7.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
81.82
84.71 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
122
2012
7.3
6.2
8
7.4
7.4
72.53
9
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.4
8
85.4
8.4
6.9
8.17
7.61
77.73
7.04
10
9.63
2011
7.5
6.8
8
8
7.5
75.93
9.1
9
8.9
8.3
8.5
8.3
86.79
8.4
6.9
8.33
7.69
78.29
8.02
10
10
COUNTRY PROFILE
Norway
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
0.6
417.5
9.9
1.6
0.9
46.7
3.6
4.9
56.4
49.6
51.9
12.4
2011
1.5
485.4
3.6
-1.4
1.1
57.3
3.3
5.0
58.0
49.6
70.3
14.5
2012
3.1
499.8
2.7
1.0
1.2
57.3
3.1
5.0
57.7
49.6
76.1
15.2
2013
2.4
520.2
3.3
0.8
1.1
56.2
3.1
5.1
57.2
49.6
81.4
15.6
2014
2.0
532.7
3.0
1.0
1.1
53.2
3.3
5.1
56.5
49.6
80.0
15.0
2015
2.0
545.6
3.0
1.1
1.0
50.5
3.3
5.2
55.8
49.6
78.4
14.4
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
89.87
91.17 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
8.6
7.7
9
8.8
9.4
86.82
9.6
9.2
9
9.3
9.1
8.7
91.5
8.8
7.4
8.48
7.94
81.64
8.5
10
9.7
2011
8.9
7.9
9
9
9.3
88.17
9.7
9.3
9.1
9.2
9.1
9
92.36
8.9
7.3
8.53
8.19
82.13
8.88
10
10
123
COUNTRY PROFILE
Poland
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.9
469.8
11.5
12.1
16.6
0.0
9.6
38.2
37.5
54.8
-21.9
-4.7
2011
4.3
514.5
6.2
7.5
22.7
0.0
9.6
38.2
38.5
56.3
-22.2
-4.3
2012
2.4
470.4
5.9
4.0
23.8
0.0
10.0
38.2
39.8
55.1
-17.4
-3.7
2013
2.1
496.1
6.2
5.9
24.0
0.0
10.2
38.3
38.9
55.3
-18.7
-3.8
2014
2.7
522.9
6.0
6.7
23.6
0.0
9.9
38.3
38.5
55.0
-19.2
-3.7
2015
3.1
553.8
6.1
6.7
23.3
0.0
9.7
38.3
38.2
54.6
-20.3
-3.7
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
64.84
67.19 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
124
2012
7.3
6.3
6.6
5.7
5.2
62.18
7
6.2
7
7.2
6.7
7.3
68.95
6.3
5
5.52
5.99
56.97
6
6.46
7.33
2011
6.9
6.8
6.7
5.9
5.3
63.48
7.3
6.2
7.2
7.2
6.7
7.4
70.19
6.3
5
5.51
6.01
57.12
6
6.46
9
COUNTRY PROFILE
Portugal
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.4
229.1
-4.4
0.3
8.0
2.3
10.8
10.6
41.4
93.3
-22.9
-10.0
2011
-1.7
237.8
-4.4
8.9
10.0
2.9
12.7
10.6
44.7
107.8
-15.3
-6.4
2012
-3.0
210.6
-12.3
-3.0
9.9
3.0
15.5
10.7
41.7
119.1
-6.0
-2.9
2013
-1.0
206.6
-2.1
2.6
10.0
3.2
16.0
10.7
42.9
123.7
-3.5
-1.7
2014
1.2
210.4
5.7
7.1
10.3
3.4
15.3
10.7
43.1
123.6
-2.5
-1.2
2015
1.9
216.5
5.2
5.9
10.7
3.6
14.7
10.7
43.1
120.8
-1.7
-0.8
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
50.62
52.61 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.2
2.9
6.5
3.2
3.3
40.09
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.6
6.7
6.1
63.93
6.3
6.3
6.41
5.55
61.39
6
3.96
5
2011
4.3
2.9
6.7
2.9
3.5
40.53
6.3
5.9
6.3
6.4
6.7
6.6
63.7
6.1
6
6.38
5.28
59.38
6
3.13
4.3
125
COUNTRY PROFILE
Romania
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
-1.6
164.4
11.9
14.1
4.4
3.7
7.3
21.4
32.3
31.2
-7.3
-4.5
2011
2.5
189.8
10.5
9.9
5.4
4.7
7.4
21.4
31.4
33.0
-8.3
-4.4
2012
0.9
171.4
3.3
4.7
5.0
4.4
7.2
21.3
32.3
34.6
-6.4
-3.7
2013
2.5
172.1
6.1
6.3
5.1
4.5
7.0
21.3
32.8
34.5
-6.5
-3.8
2014
3.0
183.3
8.0
8.0
5.5
4.8
6.8
21.3
33.3
33.7
-7.2
-3.9
2015
3.3
196.4
8.4
8.2
6.0
5.2
6.6
21.2
33.2
32.9
-8.4
-4.3
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
46.95
47.83 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
126
2012
5.3
4.6
5
5.3
4.9
50.11
5.8
3.6
5.7
5
5.2
4.7
49.97
5.2
4.4
4.38
4.79
46.83
2.57
4.17
5.5
2011
5.3
4.8
5.2
5
5.1
50.87
5.5
3.3
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.6
47.95
5.2
4.2
4.09
4.65
45.28
3.32
4.17
6.17
COUNTRY PROFILE
Russia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.3
1,487.3
25.1
7.0
0.0
206.3
7.5
142.9
35.5
11.8
70.0
4.7
2011
4.3
1,850.4
19.8
5.0
0.0
277.5
6.5
142.4
38.4
12.0
98.8
5.3
2012
3.7
1,953.6
7.5
3.0
0.0
287.7
6.0
141.9
37.7
11.0
101.7
5.2
2013
3.8
2,109.0
8.1
3.0
0.0
288.9
6.0
141.4
37.0
9.9
80.8
3.8
2014
3.9
2,308.2
8.0
3.4
0.0
280.7
6.0
141.0
35.6
10.8
52.3
2.3
2015
3.9
2,529.2
7.2
3.7
0.0
272.9
6.0
140.5
34.5
11.5
23.5
0.9
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
52.68
53.07 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
5.3
6
5.5
6.2
6.2
58.32
5.5
2.5
3.8
3.5
3.5
6.4
42.34
4.9
4.2
4.03
5.31
45.96
4.5
5.21
8.17
2011
5.2
6.2
5.6
6
6.5
59.13
5.1
2.4
4.1
3.4
3.8
6.6
42.65
5.2
4.3
4.18
5.26
47.18
4.92
5.21
7.38
127
COUNTRY PROFILE
Slovak Republic
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.2
87.2
16.3
16.5
7.2
2.8
14.4
5.4
32.4
41.1
-2.2
-2.5
2011
3.3
96.1
4.5
10.8
9.8
3.8
13.5
5.4
32.6
43.3
0.1
0.1
2012
2.6
91.2
3.3
4.4
10.2
3.9
13.7
5.5
32.1
46.3
0.7
0.8
2013
2.8
93.3
5.5
6.3
10.3
4.0
13.5
5.5
34.1
47.2
0.2
0.3
2014
3.6
98.2
5.6
6.1
10.3
4.0
12.8
5.5
33.8
47.6
0.2
0.3
2015
3.6
103.3
5.4
5.6
10.3
4.0
12.0
5.5
33.7
48.1
0.2
0.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
69.05
70.37 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
128
2012
7.6
6.2
8.2
5.2
5.7
65.91
7.9
6.5
6.8
7.1
6.9
6.6
70
6.5
5
6.15
6.65
60.77
7.6
7.08
7.5
2011
7.6
6.2
8.3
5.3
5.6
65.88
8.1
6.3
7.1
7.4
7.4
6.6
71.65
6.6
5
6.39
6.83
62
7.24
7.5
8.17
COUNTRY PROFILE
Spain
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
-0.3
1,391.8
9.2
11.3
58.9
11.9
20.1
46.1
36.2
61.3
-62.9
-4.5
2011
0.4
1,479.6
-0.9
7.6
78.3
21.0
21.7
46.1
35.5
69.1
-52.2
-3.5
2012
-1.5
1,340.3
-5.7
2.4
77.5
21.4
24.9
46.3
35.7
90.7
-26.4
-2.0
2013
-1.3
1,311.1
-2.8
3.5
71.7
21.0
25.1
46.5
36.4
96.9
-1.9
-0.1
2014
1.0
1,335.8
1.9
4.5
70.0
21.0
24.1
46.7
36.3
100.0
9.2
0.7
2015
1.6
1,367.8
3.0
4.6
69.7
21.3
23.2
46.9
36.3
101.1
17.2
1.3
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
54.07
62.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
3.5
3
6.5
2.2
3.8
38.28
7
6.5
6.9
6.4
6.7
6.4
66.47
6.7
5.6
7.19
5.15
61.66
6
5
5.5
2011
4.3
3.7
6.6
2.6
4.1
42.56
7.4
6.3
6.7
6.8
6.8
6.4
67.37
6.9
6.5
7.11
5.74
65.64
6.53
8.96
7
129
COUNTRY PROFILE
Sweden
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.9
469.3
12.0
9.2
19.1
10.7
8.4
9.4
49.8
38.8
31.8
6.8
2011
4.0
544.7
6.1
6.4
25.0
13.0
7.5
9.5
49.1
37.9
37.7
6.9
2012
1.2
520.3
-1.1
-8.0
24.9
13.0
7.5
9.5
48.9
37.1
37.6
7.2
2013
2.2
533.9
3.2
2.3
23.8
12.4
7.7
9.5
49.0
35.9
41.7
7.8
2014
2.5
558.5
2.5
5.0
23.8
12.4
7.0
9.6
49.0
34.1
42.2
7.6
2015
2.6
584.3
3.3
4.5
24.0
12.5
6.5
9.6
49.0
31.0
44.1
7.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
86.81
85.08 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
130
2012
8.3
7.3
8.3
7.2
8.6
79.2
9.5
8.9
9.2
9.1
8.7
8.8
90.27
9
7.6
8.37
8.02
82.33
8.18
10
9.55
2011
8.2
7.6
8.3
7
8.3
78.83
9.4
9
9.2
9
8.7
8.9
90.15
8.9
7.6
8.43
8.06
82.35
8.24
10
7.88
COUNTRY PROFILE
Switzerland
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.0
550.7
7.4
7.8
22.7
2011
1.9
660.8
4.2
3.8
23.3
2012
0.8
622.9
1.3
-0.3
24.0
2013
1.4
616.6
3.0
2.6
24.8
2014
1.8
625.5
6.0
5.2
25.5
2015
1.9
634.2
6.2
5.2
26.3
3.5
7.9
32.8
48.0
78.6
14.3
2.8
8.0
33.9
46.8
69.5
10.5
3.4
8.0
33.9
46.7
62.6
10.1
3.6
8.1
33.9
45.6
61.5
10.0
3.3
8.1
34.0
43.6
61.6
9.8
3.2
8.1
34.1
42.6
62.0
9.8
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
86.78
88.40 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
8.4
7.2
8.8
8.4
8.8
83.01
9.5
8.8
8.6
8.9
8.7
9
89.12
9
7.5
8.95
9.12
86.39
6.9
10
9.6
2011
8.4
7.4
8.6
8.4
8.7
82.92
9.3
8.8
8.6
8.8
8.6
9
88.42
8.9
7.6
8.88
9.07
86.08
8.39
10
10
131
COUNTRY PROFILE
Ukraine
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.1
136.4
18.1
9.3
8.1
2.2
8.1
45.8
43.2
40.5
-3.0
-2.2
2011
5.2
165.2
20.3
7.1
11.2
4.3
7.9
45.6
42.4
36.0
-9.0
-5.5
2012
3.0
180.2
6.9
5.7
11.3
5.6
7.8
45.4
43.8
35.2
-10.1
-5.6
2013
3.5
195.4
7.8
6.4
11.1
5.3
7.7
45.1
42.3
35.1
-13.0
-6.6
2014
3.5
208.2
7.6
7.6
11.2
5.2
7.6
44.9
41.7
35.0
-14.3
-6.9
2015
3.5
222.5
7.6
8.0
11.3
5.0
7.4
44.7
41.1
35.2
-14.8
-6.7
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
34.1
36.72 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
132
2012
3.6
4.4
3.4
4.7
3.5
39.13
4.3
2.4
3.5
3
3.2
4.8
35.54
4.9
4.5
4.4
4.88
46.64
2.09
1.46
3.5
2011
4
5
4.1
5
3.9
43.97
4.6
2.6
3.8
3
3.6
5.6
38.81
5.4
4.6
4.54
5.26
49.65
5.40
1.46
4
COUNTRY PROFILE
United Kingdom
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.8
2,267.5
8.0
6.4
55.7
48.4
7.9
62.2
36.4
75.0
-57.6
-2.5
2011
0.8
2,431.3
0.5
4.4
79.4
60.9
8.0
62.6
36.8
81.8
-46.6
-1.9
2012
-0.4
2,433.8
1.6
-0.8
78.7
61.7
8.1
63.1
37.2
88.7
-80.6
-3.3
2013
1.1
2,532.0
1.0
2.4
80.3
64.4
8.1
63.5
37.1
93.3
-68.6
-2.7
2014
2.2
2,651.7
2.7
5.2
77.8
62.2
7.9
63.9
37.4
96.0
-59.5
-2.2
2015
2.6
2,793.3
3.2
5.9
75.4
60.2
7.6
64.3
37.3
96.6
-42.0
-1.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
72.89
75.20 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6
4.6
6.8
4.7
5
54.23
8.5
8.1
8.4
7.9
7.9
7.2
80.03
7.7
6.4
7.09
6.89
70.27
6.05
10
9.54
2011
6.6
5
6.9
5.3
5.2
58.11
8.8
8.2
8.7
8
8.1
7.7
82.53
7.8
6.7
7.51
7.29
73.33
6.51
10
9.08
133
Bulgaria
Bulgarian Export Insurance Agency (BAEZ)
55, Alexander Stamboliiski blvd.
1301 Sofia, Bulgaria
Tel:
+ 359 2 923 69 11
Fax:
+ 359 2 987 06 65
Email: baez@baez-bg.com
Website: www.baez-bg.com
Croatia
Croatian Bank for Reconstruction and Development (HBOR)
Strossmayerov trg 9,
10000 Zagreb
Croatia
Tel:
(+385) 1 4591 545, (+385) 1 4591 539
Fax:
(+385) 1 4591 547
Email: info@hbor.hr, export@hbor.hr,
insurance@hbor.hr,
funding@hbor.hr
Website: www.hbor.hr
134
Czech Republic
Export Guarantee and Insurance Corporation (EGAP)
Vodickova 34, P.O.Box 6, 111 21 Prague 1, Czech Republic
Tel:
(+420) 222 841 111
Fax:
(+420) 222 844 001
Website: www.egap.cz
Denmark
Eksport Kredit Fonden (EKF)
Dahlerups Pakhus, Langelinie All 17, 2100 Copenhagen, Denmark
Tel:
(+45) 35 46 61 00
Fax:
(+45) 35 46 61 11
Website: www.ekf.dk
Finland
Finnvera
Etelesplanadi 8, 00130 Helsinki, Finland
P.O. Box 1010, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Tel:
(+358) 204 6011
Fax:
(+358) 204 6072 20
Website: www.finnvera.fi
135
France
Coface
12 Cours Michelet, La Dfense 10, 92800 Puteaux, France
Tel:
(+33) 1 49 02 20 00
Fax:
(+33) 1 49 02 27 11
Website: www.coface.com
Germany
Euler Hermes Kreditversicherungs-AG
Friedensallee 254, 22763 Hamburg, Germany
Tel:
(+49) 40 8834 0, (+49) 40 8834-9192 (ECA activities)
Fax:
(+49) 40 8834 7744
Website: www.eulerhermes.com/ger
www.agaportal.de (ECA activities)
Hungary
Hungarian Export Credit Insurance (MEHIB)
Nagymez u. 46-48., H-1065 Budapest, Hungary
Tel:
(+36) 1 374 9200
Fax:
(+36) 1 269 1198
Email: info@mehib.hu
Website: www.mehib.hu
136
Italy
SACE
Piazza Poli, 37/42, 00187 Rome, Italy
Tel. +39 06 67 361
Fax +39 67 36 707
Website: www.sace.it
Netherlands
Atradius
David Ricardostraat 1, 1066 JS Amsterdam, The Netherlands
P.O.Box 8982, 1006 JD Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Tel:
(+31) 20 553 9111
Fax:
(+31) 20 553 2811
Email: info.nl@atradius.com
Website: www.atradius.com
www.atradius.nl
www.atradiusdutchstatebusiness.nl
Norway
Garantiinstituttet for eksportkreditt (GIEK)
Dronning Maus, gate 15, Oslo, Norway
PO Box 1763 Vika, 0122 Oslo, Norway
Tel:
(+47) 22 87 62 00
Fax:
(+47) 22 83 24 45
Email: giek@giek.no
Website: www.giek.no
Poland
Export Credit Insurance Corporation (KUKE)
Sienna Street, 39, 00-121 Warszawa, Poland
Tel:
(+48) 22 313 0110, (+48) 22 356 8300
Fax:
(+48) 22 313 0120
Email: market@kuke.com.pl
Website: www.kuke.com.pl
137
Portugal
Companhia de Seguro de Crditos (COSEC)
Avenida da Republica, 58, 1069-057 Lisboa, Portugal
Tel.: (+351) 21 791 3700
Fax:
(+351) 21 791 3720
Email: cosec@cosec.pt
Website: www.cosec.pt
Romania
EximBank of Romania
15, Splaiul Independentei, 050092 Bucharest 5, Romania
Website: www.eximbank.ro
Russia
EXIAR
Export Insurance Agency of Russia
Tel:
+7 (495) 783-11-88
Fax:
+7 (495) 783-11-22
Email: info@exiar.ru
Website: www.exiar.ru
Slovak Republic
Export-Import bank of the Slovak Republic (Eximbanka)
Grsslingov 1, 813 50 Bratislava, Slovakia
Tel:
+ 421 2 59 398 111
Fax:
+421 2 52 931 624
Email: informacie@eximbanka.sk
Website: www.eximbanka.sk
138
Spain
Compaa Cesce, Seguros de Crdito
Velazquez 74, 28001 Madrid, Spain
Tel:
(+34) 902 111 010
Fax:
(+34) 91 576 5140/575 1829
Website: www.cesce.es
Sweden
EKN
The Swedish Export Credits Guarantee Board
P.O. Box 3064, S-103 61 Stockholm, Sweden
Tel:
(+46) 8 788 00 00
Fax (+46) 8 411 81 49
Email: info@ekn.se
Website: www.ekn.se
Switzerland
Swiss Export Risk Insurance (SERV)
Zeltweg 63, CH-8032 Zurich, Switzerland
Tel:
+41 44 384 47 77
Fax:
+41 44 384 47 87
Email: info@serv-ch.com
Website: www.serv-ch.com
139
Turkey
Export Credit Bank of Turkey (Turk Eximbank)
Mdafaa Caddesi, No. 20, 06100 Bakanliklar-Ankara, Turkey
Tel:
(+90) 312 417 13 00
Fax:
(+90) 312 418 00 15
Email: ankara@eximbank.gov.tr
Website: www.eximbank.gov.tr
United Kingdom
UK Export Finance
2 Exchange Tower, Harbour Exchange Square, London E14 9GS, UK
Tel:
(+44) 20 7512 7000
Fax:
(+44) 20 7512 7649
Website: www.ecgd.gov.uk
140
CDC Group
Cardinal Place
80 Victoria Street
London SW1E 5JL
United Kingdom
Tel:
+44 (20) 7963 4700
Fax:
+44 (20) 7963 4750
E-mail: enquiries@cdcgroup.com
Website: www.cdcgroup.com
141
142
KfW IPEX-Bank
Fritz Frank, Senior Director
Global Head of Syndication and Treasury
E-mail: fritz.frank@kfw.de
Tel:
(+49) 69 74 31 23 21
Fax:
(+49) 69 74 31 96 04
Website: www.kfw.de
143
PROPARCO
151, rue Saint Honor
75001 Paris, France
Tel:
+33 1 53 44 37 37
Fax:
+33 1 53 44 38 38
Website: www.proparco.fr
144
145
MIDDLE EAST
& NORTH AFRICA
DUBAI, UAE
At a particularly turbulent time for North Africa and the northern Middle East, the role
of development financial institutions and multilaterals has become vital in mitigating
risk and maintaining trade flows. In the Gulf, large power generation, water, and
petrochemicals facilities, as well as the regions rapidly growing airlines continue to
require the support of official agencies. SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has a
presence in Dubai and Istanbul. For more information see the SMBC Global Directory.
Contents
Growth in SWIFTs business in the Middle East outperforms global growth The rise
in message traffic supports evidence of regional growth; increase in clients both corporates and
financial institutions makes the region an important hub for SWIFT.
Country profiles
Algeria
Bahrain
Egypt
Israel
Jordan
Kuwait
Libya
146
Morocco
Oman
Qatar
Saudi Arabia
Tunisia
Turkey
United Arab Emirates
Agency contact details
147
148
149
COUNTRY PROFILE
Algeria
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.3
162.0
1.7
-2.4
0.0
56.1
10.0
35.4
36.5
10.9
12.1
7.5
2011
2.4
197.9
0.8
-3.2
0.0
71.7
10.0
36.0
39.6
9.5
19.7
10.0
2012
2.6
206.5
6.4
-2.9
0.0
71.1
9.7
36.5
37.5
8.6
12.9
6.2
2013
3.4
214.4
-2.7
0.4
0.0
70.6
9.3
37.0
35.1
7.9
13.1
6.1
2014
3.3
219.7
1.7
0.7
0.0
67.9
9.0
37.6
33.8
7.6
10.9
5.0
2015
3.4
225.8
1.4
0.9
0.0
65.5
8.6
38.2
32.7
7.3
9.5
4.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
40.2
39.44 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
150
2012
4.4
5.4
5.1
4.9
5.1
49.82
3.9
3.3
3.5
3.2
2.9
4.6
35.8
3.8
5.3
4.48
4.16
44.25
5.59
0
4.5
2011
3.9
6
4.4
4.3
5.4
48
3.8
3.5
3.9
3.1
3
3.5
34.69
4.3
5.3
4.2
4.42
45.47
5.74
0
4
COUNTRY PROFILE
Bahrain
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.7
21.5
4.1
2.8
5.4
10.2
2011
2.1
25.9
2.1
9.2
7.5
15.5
2012
2.0
26.5
2.1
4.5
7.0
15.4
2013
2.8
27.7
-7.2
4.2
6.5
15.6
2014
2.6
28.4
-7.4
-0.1
5.9
15.0
2015
2.6
29.0
-7.3
-0.6
5.3
14.4
1.1
27.2
35.6
0.8
3.6
1.1
28.3
36.8
3.2
12.6
1.2
30.8
36.0
2.6
9.9
1.2
31.5
37.1
2.9
10.5
1.2
30.4
40.8
2.8
9.8
1.2
28.6
45.9
2.6
9.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
55.01
52.69 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
5.6
5.2
6.9
4.9
5.2
55.52
6.4
5.2
4.3
4.4
4.9
4
48.65
5.7
4.7
5.99
5.15
53.85
7.67
5.21
5.5
2011
5.1
5.2
6.7
4.8
5.1
53.78
6
5.4
3.9
4.4
4.8
3.6
46.73
5.5
4.5
6.03
5.18
53.08
7.24
5.21
4.5
151
COUNTRY PROFILE
Egypt
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.1
218.5
-5.2
-3.1
5.2
8.0
9.2
78.7
25.1
73.2
-4.3
-2.0
2011
1.8
235.7
-2.9
-5.4
9.3
10.2
12.1
80.4
22.0
76.4
-6.1
-2.6
2012
2.0
255.0
3.4
-7.8
11.8
11.4
12.7
82.0
22.4
79.7
-8.7
-3.4
2013
3.0
275.9
2.6
4.6
11.9
11.4
13.5
83.6
23.4
81.1
-9.0
-3.3
2014
4.5
273.1
3.3
7.8
11.9
11.0
13.7
85.3
25.8
78.5
-6.2
-2.3
2015
6.0
289.7
7.0
6.3
12.1
10.4
13.3
87.0
26.0
75.0
-6.0
-2.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
33.17
39.31 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
152
2012
4.1
3.1
3.3
3.1
2.2
31.57
4.2
3.4
3.3
3.1
3.3
2.2
32.47
3.9
4.1
3.96
3.55
38.76
5.14
1.46
3.5
2011
4.1
3.2
3.5
2.8
2.9
32.88
4
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
1.9
32.22
4.2
4.5
4.12
3.73
41.26
5.43
2.92
6.83
COUNTRY PROFILE
Israel
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.7
217.7
13.8
17.3
10.4
0.0
8.3
7.4
40.1
76.0
8.2
3.8
2011
4.6
243.7
9.1
8.2
13.6
0.0
7.1
7.5
40.3
74.1
1.9
0.8
2012
2.9
246.8
6.6
0.3
14.3
0.0
7.0
7.7
40.8
73.3
-5.2
-2.1
2013
3.2
259.1
2.0
4.0
14.6
0.0
7.0
7.9
41.2
72.9
-3.3
-1.3
2014
3.6
273.8
5.5
6.9
14.5
0.0
6.5
8.0
41.2
71.8
-1.9
-0.7
2015
3.7
288.8
5.5
7.4
14.4
0.0
6.5
8.2
41.4
70.5
0.3
0.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
66.56
64.67 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
7.2
6
7.8
6.7
6
67.5
8
5.7
6.9
6
6.1
4
61.19
6.9
5.8
6.83
6.17
64.38
6.23
7.29
8
2011
6.2
6.7
6.7
7.2
5.4
64.25
7.9
6.4
6.9
7.4
5.5
4.3
64.1
6.6
6.4
7.38
7.13
68.75
7.21
7.08
5
153
COUNTRY PROFILE
Jordan
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
2.3
26.4
-0.7
9.5
3.4
0.0
12.5
6.1
24.9
66.8
-1.9
-7.1
2011
2.6
28.9
-0.9
12.2
5.5
0.0
12.9
6.3
26.4
70.4
-3.5
-12.0
2012
3.0
31.4
2.3
6.8
6.5
0.0
12.9
6.4
25.2
75.0
-4.4
-14.1
2013
3.5
33.8
0.0
11.0
6.1
0.0
12.9
6.5
25.8
79.6
-3.3
-9.9
2014
4.0
36.8
0.0
7.2
6.0
0.0
12.9
6.7
26.6
79.4
-2.8
-7.7
2015
4.5
39.8
-0.7
7.2
5.4
0.0
12.9
6.8
27.5
76.4
-2.0
-5.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
44.02
46.36 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
154
2012
5
5.1
5
4
3.4
44.67
5.8
5.5
5.9
5.5
4.7
4.1
52.72
4.7
4.9
5.05
4.89
48.78
3.79
3.13
3
2011
5.1
5.8
5
3.6
3.3
45.73
5.4
5.3
6.1
5.7
4.7
4.3
52.66
4.7
5
4.85
4.85
48.34
5.21
3.13
4
COUNTRY PROFILE
Kuwait
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
2.5
119.9
11.6
1.2
0.0
61.8
2.1
3.6
68.4
10.9
38.3
31.9
2011
8.2
161.0
-3.9
18.3
0.0
96.7
2.1
3.7
67.6
8.1
70.8
44.0
2012
6.3
174.6
13.7
9.4
0.0
105.9
2.1
3.8
69.6
7.2
77.0
44.1
2013
1.9
175.2
10.4
-4.1
0.0
100.7
2.1
3.9
69.3
7.1
68.7
39.2
2014
3.3
177.1
8.9
0.3
0.0
96.9
2.1
4.0
67.7
6.8
63.7
36.0
2015
3.9
181.5
8.2
2.1
0.0
94.9
2.1
4.1
66.3
6.5
61.2
33.7
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
71.63
68.44 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
7.2
6.2
7.8
7.2
8.9
74.47
7.6
5.7
4.9
5.2
4.8
5.4
56.25
5.7
5.2
5.87
5.87
56.5
10
8.75
8
2011
6.5
6.2
7.4
7.3
8.5
71.91
7.5
5.2
4.9
5
4.4
5.1
53.61
5.6
5
6.05
5.59
55.68
7.6
8.75
8.38
155
COUNTRY PROFILE
Libya
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.7
73.6
3.6
-0.8
4.5
45.4
2011
-59.7
35.7
-47.8
-79.0
1.1
12.7
2012
121.9
85.1
148.2
358.3
5.7
57.5
2013
16.7
97.6
26.4
8.7
8.4
59.0
2014
8.3
102.2
10.7
3.2
5.5
59.0
2015
8.6
109.8
7.6
3.8
6.0
59.6
6.5
66.0
0.0
14.6
19.8
6.5
38.5
0.0
0.5
1.3
6.6
70.4
0.0
18.6
21.8
6.7
64.0
0.0
10.0
10.3
6.9
63.7
0.0
4.8
4.7
7.0
62.3
0.0
1.8
1.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
28.11
21.46 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
156
2012
4.2
4.1
4.7
4.3
4.8
44
4
2.6
1.8
2.3
2
3.4
27.07
3.2
5.4
3.65
3.05
38
0
0
3
2011
3.1
3.6
3.5
4.3
3.9
36.67
2.7
2.3
2
1.9
1.7
2
21.1
3.8
5.3
3.92
3.5
41.25
0
0
0
COUNTRY PROFILE
Morocco
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.7
90.8
-0.5
19.3
8.1
0.2
9.1
31.9
27.5
51.3
-3.9
-4.3
2011
4.9
99.3
7.2
4.2
11.1
0.9
8.9
32.2
27.6
54.3
-8.0
-8.0
2012
2.9
97.2
6.0
8.9
11.7
0.9
8.8
32.5
28.3
58.1
-7.6
-7.9
2013
5.5
103.3
8.5
13.8
11.5
0.9
8.7
32.9
28.1
58.9
-5.6
-5.4
2014
5.1
111.0
6.6
6.3
10.9
0.9
8.6
33.2
27.5
59.1
-4.5
-4.0
2015
5.3
119.4
7.1
5.1
10.7
0.8
8.5
33.5
27.3
58.5
-4.3
-3.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
45.78
47.62 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
5.5
4.8
4.5
4.7
3.7
46.33
5.8
4.4
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.6
48.82
5.1
5.1
5.43
4.6
50.58
4.51
4.17
3.5
2011
4.6
4.9
5
4.5
3.7
45.2
4.8
4.1
4.6
4.4
4.5
4.3
44.13
4.9
4.9
5.08
4.48
48.3
4.99
4.17
6.83
157
COUNTRY PROFILE
Oman
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.0
59.2
5.1
7.6
0.0
25.2
2011
5.4
72.7
6.3
3.0
0.0
33.4
2012
5.0
80.0
14.9
5.6
0.0
35.9
2013
3.9
82.9
12.2
3.2
0.0
35.3
2014
3.2
83.7
10.0
2.0
0.0
32.7
2015
3.4
85.1
9.6
3.0
0.0
30.1
3.0
39.0
5.3
5.1
8.6
3.1
41.4
5.0
12.2
16.7
3.2
41.1
5.5
11.2
14.0
3.3
40.7
6.1
8.3
10.0
3.4
38.3
6.9
4.3
5.1
3.5
36.0
7.6
0.5
0.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
67.79
66.23 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
158
2012
6.1
6.4
8.1
6.2
7.5
68.44
7.8
5.8
5.2
6.1
5.1
6.5
60.8
5.6
5.5
6.07
5.29
55.94
9.22
7.19
7
2011
5.9
6.6
7.9
5.9
7.5
67.67
7.3
5.8
5.6
6.1
5.1
5.6
59.13
5.3
5.5
6.02
5.27
55.17
7.6
7.19
7.88
COUNTRY PROFILE
Qatar
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
16.7
127.3
11.1
33.6
0.0
72.6
2011
14.1
173.5
9.9
11.8
0.0
105.5
2012
6.3
184.6
11.7
0.6
0.0
102.8
2013
4.9
190.9
11.1
4.7
0.0
101.1
2014
5.1
197.5
11.0
-1.3
0.0
96.8
2015
6.3
208.8
5.0
-2.0
0.0
91.9
1.7
30.9
38.7
33.9
26.7
1.8
38.6
32.3
52.4
30.2
1.8
39.1
35.3
54.6
29.6
1.9
38.3
32.5
51.1
26.8
2.0
36.7
31.3
41.8
21.2
2.1
34.1
28.6
35.3
16.9
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
73.48
73.20 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
7.4
8
7.8
8
8.7
80
7.8
6.6
5.4
5.8
5.9
7.2
64.4
6
5.5
7.04
5.64
60.6
6.33
8.75
9
2011
7.4
8.1
7.5
7.6
8.7
78.43
7.6
6.7
5.5
5.5
5.8
6.6
62.66
6
5.1
6.81
5.16
57.83
7.34
8.75
9
159
COUNTRY PROFILE
Saudi Arabia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.1
455.9
1.5
0.4
0.0
215.2
10.0
27.6
48.1
9.8
66.8
14.6
2011
7.1
597.1
3.9
4.7
0.0
317.6
n/a
28.2
53.3
6.1
158.5
26.5
2012
6.0
657.0
9.7
4.0
0.0
350.7
n/a
28.8
54.1
5.5
171.3
26.1
2013
4.2
682.6
5.8
0.0
0.0
343.8
n/a
29.4
51.7
5.3
155.1
22.7
2014
3.8
697.5
5.5
1.0
0.0
326.8
n/a
30.0
48.8
5.2
133.3
19.1
2015
4.3
722.2
5.1
3.0
0.0
318.4
n/a
30.6
46.4
5.0
124.5
17.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
67.27
63.58 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
160
2012
6.9
6.8
7.5
5.3
7.6
68.25
6.5
4.2
4.2
4.7
5
5.7
50.33
5.1
5.5
5.5
4.39
51.19
9.93
8.13
8.5
2011
7
7
7.1
5.3
7.5
67.67
6.1
4.2
4.1
4.9
4.9
5.2
49.07
5.1
5.5
5.28
4.57
50.95
7.6
8.13
7.88
COUNTRY PROFILE
Tunisia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.1
44.3
-2.1
5.5
2.7
2.3
13.0
10.5
30.1
40.5
-2.1
-4.8
2011
-1.8
46.0
-6.2
-7.9
3.4
2.6
18.9
10.7
31.7
44.4
-3.4
-7.3
2012
2.7
44.7
6.9
5.4
3.6
2.8
17.0
10.8
31.0
46.3
-3.6
-7.9
2013
3.3
45.6
3.5
4.1
3.8
2.9
16.0
10.9
29.8
51.5
-3.5
-7.7
2014
4.1
47.0
6.4
9.1
3.8
3.1
13.5
11.0
30.0
51.6
-3.3
-6.9
2015
5.3
49.2
7.9
10.8
3.8
3.4
12.9
11.1
30.0
50.6
-3.1
-6.4
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
45.95
45.17 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.5
4.8
4.3
4.6
3.5
43.38
5.9
4.8
5.2
4.6
4.9
4.7
50.25
5.8
5.5
5.81
4.92
54.9
3.93
3.96
4.5
2011
3.9
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.4
39.38
5
3.9
4.8
4
4.5
3.3
42.32
5.3
4.9
5.13
4.56
49.69
4.56
4.38
7
161
COUNTRY PROFILE
Turkey
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
9.2
731.3
20.9
5.1
38.5
6.5
11.9
73.0
33.1
42.4
-46.6
-6.4
2011
8.5
774.3
11.9
6.4
54.1
6.5
9.8
74.7
34.6
39.3
-77.1
-10.0
2012
3.0
783.1
4.0
0.6
56.7
7.3
9.4
74.9
33.6
37.7
-59.0
-7.5
2013
3.5
839.0
2.3
2.4
52.8
7.5
9.9
75.8
33.0
36.7
-59.8
-7.1
2014
4.0
900.4
8.3
3.7
57.0
7.5
10.2
76.7
32.9
36.3
-66.9
-7.4
2015
4.3
980.6
9.3
3.9
61.1
7.5
10.2
77.6
32.9
36.3
-74.1
-7.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
57.01
56.73 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
162
2012
6.8
6.2
5.5
5.7
6.1
60.36
6.8
5.2
6
5.8
6.1
6.7
61
5.6
6.8
5.97
5.34
59.44
3.12
3.54
8
2011
7
6.1
5.4
5.2
6.1
59.38
6.5
5
5.9
5.7
6.1
6.7
59.78
5.5
6.8
5.71
5.23
58.02
3.74
3.33
8.13
COUNTRY PROFILE
2010
1.3
283.9
-1.5
-4.2
0.0
74.6
2011
5.2
342.0
9.2
10.5
0.0
111.6
2012
4.0
361.9
9.8
6.8
0.0
118.8
2013
2.6
374.9
5.0
6.1
0.0
118.8
2014
3.1
387.2
5.7
7.6
0.0
116.0
2015
3.3
399.9
4.6
5.2
0.0
113.3
5.2
30.0
22.3
9.1
3.2
5.4
35.0
17.8
33.3
9.7
5.5
36.1
16.5
33.6
9.3
5.7
35.0
16.4
37.9
10.1
5.9
33.6
16.4
42.2
10.9
6.0
33.1
16.5
43.3
10.8
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
66.21
66.13 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
5.6
6.4
6.9
6.1
6.9
63.79
7
6.1
4.6
5.1
5.1
7.1
58.43
5.9
4.9
6.96
4.96
56.56
7.6
8.28
8
2011
5.3
6.4
6.6
6
6.8
62.21
6.8
6
4.8
5
4.7
6.8
56.88
5.6
4.7
6.68
4.71
54.21
2.82
8.13
9.25
163
Israel
ASHRA The Israel Export Insurance Corp
65 Menachem Begin Road
PO Box 20208, 61201 Tel Aviv
Israel
Tel:
(+972) 3 563 1700
Fax:
(+972) 3 563 1708
Email: info@ashra.gov.il
Website: www.ashra.gov.il
Jordan
Jordan Loan Guarantee Corporation (JLGC)
24 Prince Shaker Ben Zaid Street, Shmeisani- Amman
PO Box 830703
Amman, 11183 Jordan
Tel:
(+962-6) 562 5400
Fax:
(+962-6) 562 5408
Website: www.jlgc.com
164
Oman
Export Credit Guarantee Agency of Oman (ECGA Oman)
P.O. Box: 822, 100 Muscat, Oman
Tel:
+ (968) 2481 3979 / 2481 3980
Fax:
+ (968) 2481 2380
Email: info@ecgaoman.com.om
Website: www.ecgaoman.com.om
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Export Programme (SEP)
The Saudi Fund for Development
P.O. Box 50483, Riyadh- 11523
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Tel:
+966 1 4658117/4659399
Fax:
+966 1 4659699
E-mail: info@sep.gov.sa
Website: www.sep.gov.sa
UAE
Export Credit Insurance Company of the Emirates
P.O. Box 121616, Dubai, United Arab Emirates
Tel:
+971 4 4298844
Fax:
+971 4 4298899
Email: info@ecie.ae
Website: www.ecie.ae
165
166
167
SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA
JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA
Official agencies play a key role in the trade, export and commodity finance sectors in
Sub-Saharan Africa, with a heavy developmental twist to transactions and projects.
Power generation is in huge demand, and agribusiness and mining attract plenty of
interested players. SMBCs Global Trade Finance Department has a presence in
Johannesburg. For more information see the SMBC Global Directory.
Contents
African trade and trade finance in the decade of the 2010s A new frontier emerges
Dr B. O. Oramah, Executive Vice President, Business Development and Corporate Banking,
African Export Import Bank (Afreximbank).
Country profiles
Angola
Ghana
Kenya
Mozambique
Nigeria
South Africa
Agency contact details
168
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Africas economic growth performance during the last dozen years has been
remarkable. Despite severe socioeconomic and financial crises that plagued the global
economy, notably the terrorist attacks on the US and Europe in 2001/2, global
financial and economic crisis in 2008/9 and the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis that
began in late 2009; the continent once seen as a basket case is beginning to look like
it will soon turn the corner and become the bread basket of the world. From
abundance of water and arable land; rapid discoveries of oil and gas and other mineral
resources; to a flourish of cheap labour and a rising middle class, Africa is exhibiting all
the characteristics that can underpin a rapid sustainable growth in the years ahead.
Today, the continent enjoys good growth performance, despite seemingly
insurmountable challenges around the globe. For instance, it is the second fastest
growing region in the world behind Developing Asia. Real GDP of the continent
averaged a growth rate of 4.8% during 2001 to 2010, more than twice its pace in the
1980s and 90s (Figure 1). Further, over the ten years to 2010, six of the world's ten
fastest-growing economies were in sub-Saharan Africa.
169
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The changes being observed in Africas economic performance can be attributed to a
number of factors that are beginning to alter relations of production as well as the
structure and pattern of the continents participation in global trade. For the purposes
of this article, we will focus on three important factors that we believe are the most
important forces at play, namely (a) the rapid expansion of Africa-South trade; (b)
increased demand for investment goods by African economies; and (c) increased role of
African and other developing country institutions in African trade and project
financing.
The increasing role of large developing and emerging economies in the South, led by
China, India, Russia and Brazil, in global trade, international finance and investments,
has had a major impact on the strength and resilience of African economies. Africas
trade is already shifting rapidly toward developing or South markets, notably China,
Brazil and India.Trade between Africa and these dynamic markets, has been growing at
an average annual rate of 20% over the last decade, raising the share of the South in
Africas total trade to over 45% in 2011, from less than 18% in 1980 (Figure 2).
Additionally, Chinas trade with Africa has grown 15 fold, between 2000 and 2011;
rising from about $8 billion in 2000 to about $166 billion in 2011, making it Africas
single largest trading partner with a share of about 14 % of the continents total
merchandise trade in 2011, up from 3 % in 2000. India and Brazil have seen similar, if
less spectacular increases in trade relations with Africa. For instance, in 2010 India
replaced Germany as Africas fourth largest trading partner accounting for 5% of the
continents total merchandise trade.
170
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The rising share of African trade by developing countries has significantly contributed to
Africas robust growth performance and resilience against external shocks. For instance,
when the Latin America and the Mexican peso crises broke in the 1980s and 1990s, the
African economy experienced serious downturns, contracting by 1% and 0.93% in 1983
and 1992 respectively. In contrast, the current crisis has had a mild economic impact with
real GDP only slowing from 5.1% in 2008 to 2.7% in 2009 (Figure 3). Further, the
Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, which began in late 2009, has had minimal impact on
Africas economic activity than was anticipated, with real GDP growth rate declining only
by 1% from 4.7% in 2010 to 3.7% in 2011. Even then the slowdown in 2011 could not be
fully attributable to the European debt crisis as the effect of the Arab uprising was also at
play. The rapid expansion in trade relations with the South economies has sustained a
strong demand for commodities, significantly offsetting the relatively weak demand from
the major Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
economies as financial and economic crises worsened in Europe.
An important new positive development arising from the changing trade relations is
that the composition of goods imported from South economies by Africa has shifted
significantly to include a large share of investment goods, especially infrastructure
goods (Figure 4). The import of these investment goods has been made possible by
generous credit terms extended to African buyers by these economies. One other
benefit that has either been underestimated or sometimes ignored is the positive
contribution of Africa-South trade to intra-African trade. The observed expansion in
Africa-South trade, which was accompanied by growing pace of FDI in-flows from
the South, estimated at $1.2 billion per annum during 2002-08, has aided improved
Figure 3: Africa trends in growth rate of real GDP (2005 = 100 percent)
171
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
access to appropriately priced technology, and facilitated transfer of skills to many
African entrepreneurs. This, it is argued, underpins the marked growth in the
continents manufacturing total factor productivity, and consequently facilitated intraregional trade. Intra-African trade has accordingly flourished, rising from about $27
billion in 1995 to about $142 billion in 2011 (Figure 5). The trade is poised to rise
further as China expands the creation of industrial zones beyond those in Suez in
Egypt; Chambishi in Zambia; Lekki in Nigeria; Ogun State in Nigeria; Jinfei in
Mauritius; Oriental in Ethiopia; and Jiangling in Algeria.
Another important development is the evolution of Africas trade finance market in
the past decade. Apart from the changes that have followed diversification of Africas
trade, its trade finance market has also undergone some transformation due, in part, to
the persistent financial and economic crises that plagued Advanced Economies in the
2000s. The immediate impact of the current crisis was a significant deleveraging and
cuts in credit lines to developing countries, including Africa, as many international
trade finance banks sought to build up their balance sheets in response to market and
regulatory pressures. In 2012, for instance, trade-related bank lending (both short and
medium term) and syndicated lending to developing economies declined by 33% and
35% respectively compared to their levels in 2011. In terms of pricing, the spread on
bank and syndicated lending has widened sharply from the pre-crisis range of 100 to
150 basis points to a range of 250 and 350 basis points in 2011/12; tenors have also
shortened, mostly to less than 6 months.
The challenges in the Eurozone have contributed in preventing some international
banks from participating in the boom African trade is currently experiencing, leaving
the market to a few specialist banks. Thanks to the re-capitalization of many African
banks and changes in the regulatory regime in some African markets that have made it
Figure 4: Composition of Africas merchandise trade with the South* 2011 (percent)
172
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
easier for banks to internationalize their activities, many African banks have stepped in
to bridge the financing gap to some extent. For instance, recently in a deal coordinated
by Afreximbank, five Nigerian banks committed about $1.3 billion in support of an
Independent oil producing company operating in that market; in Cote dIvoire, the
annual trade finance needs of its national oil refinery in an amount of slightly under
$1 billion is fully funded by African banks; and in Zambia, the national oil import
requirements are virtually funded by African banks. Funding from Chinese and Indian
banks is also becoming very important with their EXIM banks providing liquidity
critical for the financing of investment goods imports into Africa.
The crisis also brought new opportunities for African governments and corporates to
diversify sources of trade and development finance and to begin deploying innovative
financial instruments to raise the needed medium and long term funds to support trade
and infrastructure projects. Consequently, we have over the last five years seen an
emerging trend of governments and corporates attempting, in most cases successfully, to
access international capital markets to raise medium-term debts to support projects. In
the 1990s sovereign bond issuances in international markets was limited to relatively
developed economies in Northern Africa and South Africa. However, since the mid2000s, attracted by high yields relative to the perceived risk, better macro-economic
fundamentals, external sector and investment reforms and political stability, foreign
investors have started investing in African sovereign debts. In 2012, for instance, many
African entities, including first timers, namely Angola and Zambia, successfully raised
sovereign and corporate bonds (with heavy over-subscriptions) from Eurobond markets
to finance trade-related infrastructure projects; other countries, namely Kenya, Rwanda,
Tanzania and Uganda are in the process of tapping the same market.
173
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
The emerging African trade realities have brought to the fore the need for African
Development Finance Institutions (DFIs) to find innovative financing solutions to
facilitate AfricaSouth trade; support the rising demand for investment goods and fill
the gap being created by on-going deleveraging by traditional trade finance banks.
Solutions to be deployed must recognise the inadequacy of the traditional structured
finance technique in supporting the emerging trade patterns and also be robust
enough to manage new risks and longer maturities.
In recognition of its leading role in promoting and financing African trade,
Afreximbank is leading the effort of attracting international banks to the changing
African trade finance market. It has created and deployed instruments that mitigate the
perceived risks that are seen to be emerging. For instance, the banks Country Risk
Guarantee Facility now has wider country and risk coverage; the bank is aggressively
promoting factoring as an instrument of choice in dealing with new markets and noncommodities trade; Africorrbanking has been introduced to enable Afreximbank share
partially or fully the credit risk of African banks opening letters of credit to be
confirmed by an international bank; and the bank is increasingly protecting
participants in syndicated deals it leads from country risk by acting as Lender of
Record in such deals enabling such participants to benefit from its preferred creditor
status in its member countries. In recognition of the existing challenges to financing
intra-African trade, Afreximbank designed a new programme, in 2011, called Intra
African Trade Facilitation Programme (INTRAFAP) to provide a platform for
mobilizing financial, technical and other resources for the development, promotion
and financing of intra-African trade. Further, due to the relevance of Africa-South
trade to sustaining Africas growth, Afreximbank has committed itself to undertake
programmes/activities, including research, organising seminars/workshops, participating
in/or co-organising trade fairs with major South institutions/governments to promote
their trade with Africa.
In 2012 Afreximbank in collaboration with China Exim, held a two-day seminar on
the sidelines of Afreximbanks 19th Annual General Meeting, during July 11-13, in
Beijing, China. A similar programme is planned in South America in collaboration
with Banco Latinoamericano de Comercio Exterior (BLADEX), Corporacin Andina
de Fomento (CAF) and UNCTAD.To strengthen it in filling the financing gap created
by changing global realities, shareholders of Afreximbank have approved an increase in
the authorised capital of the Bank from $750 million to $5 billion in December 2012.
Equipped by this increase, the bank is in the market to raise additional equity.
What the foregoing confirms is that the times are challenging and exciting for African
trade finance practitioners. The good news is that Afreximbank is prepared to help
interested partners to seize the moment.
www.afreximbank.com
174
COUNTRY PROFILE
Angola
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.4
82.5
-21.5
-3.3
3.2
49.4
2011
3.9
104.3
13.0
-6.3
5.2
65.7
2012
6.8
114.8
13.3
8.7
5.5
68.5
2013
5.5
123.9
7.4
3.2
6.0
70.0
2014
5.4
130.5
4.6
3.2
6.6
69.0
2015
5.4
138.6
6.2
3.2
7.1
68.2
19.1
43.5
37.6
7.4
9.0
19.6
48.8
31.5
10.0
9.6
20.2
45.5
28.0
9.8
8.5
20.8
44.5
29.2
8.2
6.6
21.4
43.3
30.9
5.8
4.4
22.1
41.7
33.0
2.5
1.8
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
38.71
37.45 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.7
6.2
3.7
4
5.2
47.8
4.1
3
2.8
3.6
3.3
5
36.02
2.6
3.4
3.75
3.15
32.06
4.84
2.5
3
2011
3.8
6.4
2.8
3.7
5
43.22
3.3
2.8
2.5
3.2
3.1
4.5
32.47
1.8
2.8
3.28
2.33
25.52
5.19
2.5
4.5
175
COUNTRY PROFILE
Ghana
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
8.0
32.2
33.0
42.6
2.2
0.0
2011
14.4
38.4
48.1
123.8
3.2
2.8
2012
8.2
40.1
3.1
18.6
3.1
2.6
2013
7.8
42.6
6.3
16.2
3.6
2.9
2014
8.2
48.6
9.6
16.1
3.5
3.1
2015
7.5
53.6
0.0
13.6
3.5
3.0
23.7
16.8
46.3
-2.7
-8.4
24.3
19.5
43.4
-3.5
-9.2
24.9
20.8
44.9
-3.7
-9.1
25.6
19.8
41.1
-3.0
-7.0
26.2
21.0
38.0
-4.0
-8.2
26.9
21.1
36.9
-2.7
-5.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
44.8
45.99 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
176
2012
4.8
6.5
4.5
4.5
3.9
48.35
5
4.8
5.3
5.2
4.8
5.2
50.59
3.2
4.4
3.71
3.41
36.84
4.85
1.56
5
2011
4.8
6.8
4.8
4.6
4
50
4.5
4.6
5.1
4.9
4.7
4.8
47.63
2.9
4.2
3.4
3.23
34.42
5.20
1.56
6.5
COUNTRY PROFILE
Kenya
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.8
32.2
8.1
6.2
2.7
0.1
2011
4.4
34.1
0.0
-7.6
4.1
0.1
2012
5.1
41.8
6.2
18.1
4.6
0.1
2013
5.6
49.8
6.7
4.6
4.9
0.1
2014
6.4
55.1
7.5
8.2
5.1
0.1
2015
6.2
62.6
8.4
6.9
5.3
0.2
39.7
24.6
49.9
-2.1
-6.5
40.9
24.9
48.5
-3.6
-10.6
42.1
26.2
47.2
-3.5
-8.5
43.3
26.2
45.3
-4.3
-8.6
44.6
26.8
45.3
-4.2
-7.6
45.8
25.5
44.2
-4.2
-6.7
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
35.16
39.01 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.6
4.5
4.3
3.9
3.3
41.07
3.2
2.8
4.1
4
3.5
3.7
35.72
3.2
3.6
3.87
3.3
35.08
4.73
1.88
2
2011
4.6
5
4.2
3.9
3.2
41.85
2.8
2.5
4.1
4.3
3.3
3.6
34.57
2.9
3.2
3.65
2.96
31.83
5.18
1.88
6.33
177
COUNTRY PROFILE
Mozambique
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
7.1
9.5
1.7
-9.9
0.5
0.0
2011
7.3
12.6
25.6
1.8
1.0
0.0
2012
7.5
14.6
12.8
5.5
1.0
0.0
2013
8.4
15.8
7.1
2.9
1.1
0.0
2014
7.8
17.1
5.1
3.0
1.2
0.0
2015
7.8
19.1
6.8
6.3
1.2
0.0
21.6
29.5
41.1
-1.1
-11.7
22.0
30.0
36.8
-1.6
-12.8
22.5
30.1
42.0
-1.7
-11.6
22.9
28.3
46.2
-2.0
-12.4
23.4
28.6
48.9
-1.9
-11.1
23.8
28.9
49.2
-1.9
-10.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
36.22
35.76 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
178
2012
3.6
5.2
4.5
3.3
3.7
40.72
5.2
3.3
4.2
4.4
5.3
5
46.03
1.9
1.6
2
1.8
18.21
4.76
1.56
2
2011
2.7
4.5
4.4
3
3
35.17
5.4
3.2
4.1
4.7
5.4
5.4
46.99
1
0.3
0.5
0.83
6.67
4.89
1.56
4
COUNTRY PROFILE
Nigeria
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
8.0
228.6
17.4
6.7
11.2
74.7
21.1
156.1
20.0
15.5
13.4
5.9
2011
7.4
244.1
5.6
-8.5
19.4
90.1
23.9
160.3
29.5
17.3
8.8
3.6
2012
7.1
272.6
6.7
6.1
21.3
96.8
n/a
164.8
26.4
14.7
9.5
3.5
2013
6.7
293.1
3.2
3.9
22.7
99.0
n/a
169.3
25.8
15.4
9.1
3.1
2014
6.6
312.5
9.2
3.2
23.2
96.9
n/a
173.9
24.3
15.9
8.7
2.8
2015
6.6
334.6
7.2
3.4
23.9
94.8
n/a
178.7
23.6
15.8
4.7
1.4
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
38.29
41.70 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.1
6.2
4
4.2
4.4
45.78
4.2
2.3
3.3
3.5
3.3
4.1
34.63
3.8
5.3
3.23
4.69
42.68
5.71
2.19
2
2011
3.9
6.5
3.7
4.1
4.3
44.8
3.8
2.3
3.3
3.3
3
3.9
32.71
3.8
5.3
3.14
4.44
41.78
5.87
2.19
6.38
179
COUNTRY PROFILE
South Africa
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
2.9
363.5
9.6
4.5
11.2
0.0
24.0
50.0
27.5
35.3
-10.2
-2.8
2011
3.1
408.7
9.7
5.6
14.1
0.0
23.9
50.6
27.5
38.8
-13.5
-3.3
2012
2.6
390.9
4.7
3.1
14.5
0.0
24.4
51.2
27.3
41.2
-21.4
-5.5
2013
3.0
402.2
2.3
5.1
14.7
0.0
24.7
51.8
27.6
43.3
-23.5
-5.8
2014
3.9
422.3
4.4
5.8
14.5
0.0
24.5
52.4
27.9
44.9
-25.9
-6.1
2015
4.1
444.9
5.0
5.6
14.4
0.0
24.1
53.1
28.3
45.2
-26.2
-5.9
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
56.95
58.26 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
180
2012
6.4
5.1
5.3
3.4
5.3
51.08
6.7
4.7
6.2
5.9
6.2
5.9
59.38
5.4
4.9
5.86
4.14
50.67
4.9
5.83
8
2011
6.7
5.5
5.7
3.2
5.6
53.18
6.4
4.9
6.1
6.1
6.4
6.3
60.37
5.4
4.7
5.7
4.57
51.08
5.53
5.83
7.88
South Africa
Credit Guarantee Insurance Corporation of Africa (CGIC)
31 Dover Street, Randburg 2125, South Africa
Tel:
(+27) 11 889 7000
Fax:
(+27) 11 886 1027
Website: www.creditguarantee.co.za
181
182
THE AMERICAS
183
Agency Finance has become a major force in project financing. Prospective changes in
capital requirements for long term assets proposed in Basel III has reduced bank
appetite for long term risk. Agencies, multilateral banks, development agencies and
banks and export credit agencies have stepped in to support major investments globally.
Agencies have provided support by lending directly, providing credit guarantees and
political risk cover. An example of this in the Americas is the Etileno XXI project in
Mexico.
Braskem Idesa, S.A.P.I. known as the Etileno XXI project, is a greenfield
petrochemical plant that will be built in the Coatzacoalcos region in Veracruz, Mexico
by a Brazilian sponsor, Braskem and a Mexican sponsor, Grupo Idesa. The project will
include an ethane cracker and three polyethylene plants with a nameplate capacity of 1
million metric tons per year. The project is targeted to be operational by 2015. Total
project costs are anticipated to be $4.5 billion. SMBC was financial advisor and
mandated lead arranger, successfully closing $3.2 billion of financing for the project in
December 2012. The entire debt financing had agency involvement. . Financing came
from export credit agencies: SACE (Italy) for $600 million and EDC (Canada) for
$300 million). Multilateral agencies International Finance Corporation, the private
sector arm of the World Bank group (IFC) and the InterAmerican Development
Bank (IDB) the leading source of development finance in Latin America and the
Caribbean with $285 million each for A-Loans and $700 million total B-Loans.
Development banks, Bancomext and Nafin from Mexico provided $400 million and
BNDES from Brazil offered $623 million in export and investment financing. Ten
international financial institutions funded under multilateral B-Loans and SACE
guarantees.
The genesis of this project goes back to September 2009 when Pemex awarded a longterm, take or pay contract to Braskem and Idesa. SMBC started working with the
Sponsors on structuring the financing in 2010 and from the beginning it was clear that
given the economic climate, the project faced financing challenges namely the size of
184
First time the private sector will participate in the petrochemical industry in
Mexico.
2)
First time BNDES used their newly created internationalisation line to support
the expansion of Brazilian entities abroad.
3)
4)
SMBC believes that the Etileno XXI financing structure represents the new normal
in for large project financing markets: Large projects anchored, and sometimes fully
financed by official agencies sometimes with very large commitments are no longer
unusual. Agency investment requirements need to be considered, in particular for
environmental and social impact assessments.The due diligence process for Etileno XXI
took approximately 18 months, may also be the new normal given the level of scrutiny
that agencies and co-lenders put on each component of the financing structure. The
successful closing of Etileno XXI demonstrated the ability of diverse agencies to work
together, catalyse private lending and make this landmark investment possible.
185
NORTH AMERICA
NEW YORK, USA
Two of the most active and pioneering export credit agencies; the worlds largest
agricultural export market; government commitment to double exports; the early
stages of a new Asia-focussed free trade area; and some of the most innovative
technology providers to drive trade and supply chain all make the North American
market one of the most interesting regions in trade finance. SMBCs Global Trade
Finance Department has a major presence in New York. For full details see the SMBC
Global Directory.
Contents
USA: Exports hit record levels US exports reached $186.4 billion in December 2012, and
rise to a record annual total of nearly $2.2 trillion for the full year 2012
Outlook 2013: Let it rise Peter G. Hall,Vice-President and Chief Economist, EDC
The new US-Asia trade paradigm: The prospects and challenges of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership negotiations in 2013 P.Welles Orr, Sr. International Trade Advisor at Miller &
Chevalier Chartered
Country profiles
Canada
United States
Agency contact details
186
NORTH AMERICA
Capping off the year, the United States exported $186.4 billion in goods and services
in December 2012, according to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of
the US Commerce Department.
US exports of goods and services in 2012 reached a record annual total of nearly $2.2
trillion ($2.195 trillion), which is 39.1% above the level of exports in 2009 when the
Obama administration launched its
National Exports Initiative. Over
the past 12 months, exports have
been growing at an annualised rate
of 11.6% when compared to 2009.
Todays record-breaking
numbers show that US exports
in 2012 continued on a historic
path of growth.
187
NORTH AMERICA
US Ex-Im itself has a fourth consecutive record-breaking fiscal year with over $35.7
billion in export financing supporting 255,000 US jobs and $50 billion in exports.
The Made in the USA brand has never been stronger, fuelled by the strength of
American exporters and the work President Obama has done to grow our economy,
comments Hochberg. FY 2012 authorisations, at over $35.7 billion, were up about
10% from the year before, and more than double the amount from FY 2008. In the
past five years, US exporters working with US Ex-Im have created or sustained over 1
million private sector jobs. And weve done it all at no cost to the American taxpayer,
as Ex-Im has sent $1.6 billion to the US Treasury over the past five years.
Hochberg adds: By these measures and others, the past five years have seen nothing
less than a revolution in export-driven economic development.
188
FY 2012s over $35.7 billion in authorised export financing was 10% greater than
FY 2011, and more than double the amount from FY 2008.
During the four years since FY 2008, the bank has financed transactions that have
enabled more than $170 billion worth of American exports, supporting nearly
1 million American jobs.
Since FY 2008, the volume of Ex-Im export financing directly benefitting
American small businesses has nearly doubled from $3.2 billion to $6.1 billion in
FY 2012, a 92% increase in four years.
Support for women- and minority-owned small business exporters was one of
the fastest growing market segments, with loans up almost 17% this year a new
record.
A four-year emphasis on Government at the Speed of Business has, in FY 2012,
resulted in 90% of all transactions being processed within 30 days and 98% were
processed within 100 days.
In FY 2012, Ex-Im provided more than $5.1 billion in infrastructure-related
financing, a 433% increase over FY 2008 and an enormous opportunity for
American exporters.
Geographically, Asia and the Middle East were the banks largest regions in FY
2012, with a $9.5 billion increase over FY 2011. Ex-Im supported exports in subSaharan Africa have tripled over the past four years.
NORTH AMERICA
Hassanal Bolkiah of Brunei and President of the Republic of Indonesia Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, have proposed the US-Asia Pacific Comprehensive Partnership
For A Sustainable Energy Future.
The partnership will offer a framework for consolidating and expanding energy and
environmental cooperation across existing regional forums to advance efforts to ensure
affordable, secure, and cleaner energy supplies for the region. Bilateral and multilateral
energy and environmental initiatives are flourishing in the Asia Pacific, and the US,
Brunei, and Indonesia, will help coordinate and enhance these efforts, share best practices,
and leverage existing initiatives across the various forums that undertake this work.
The partnership will drive investment and facilitate progress on four key regional
priorities: renewables and cleaner energy; markets and interconnectivity; the emerging
role of natural gas; and sustainable development.
Governments will engage with the private sector as well as partner countries in the
region to determine specific projects within the four priority areas. There will also be
close consultation and cooperation with the World Bank and the Asian Development
Bank to enhance their work in the region on these issues.With an estimated $9 trillion
needed in investment in electricity alone through 2035 to meet growing demand in
the region, there is enormous potential for US industry to play an important role in
the regions energy future.
The US role will provide up to $6 billion to support the partnership including:
l
OPIC will provide up to $1 billion in financing for sustainable power and energy
infrastructure projects.
The partnership will build upon the existing energy initiatives in the region, including
the ASEAN-United States Energy Cooperation Work Plan, the APEC Energy
Working Group, the East Asia Summit Energy Ministers and other forums to expand
practical cooperation across the region, promote greater energy connectivity and
integration, and encourage collaborative work across these and other forums, including
through joint capacity building efforts.
189
NORTH AMERICA
Another New Year, and a chance for a fresh start. Will this prove to be the one that
finally fires up the global economy? To answer, its tempting to borrow from Berra in
many ways, it seems like deja vu all over again. For three successive years, the world
economy has started well, and then fizzled mid-year. Are we in for the same again, or is
it different this time can we genuinely say with firm hope,
190
NORTH AMERICA
The threats are hefty, but so is the
pent-up demand pressure. This
development could take the
economy to a new phase, unlike
2009-10 where huge stimulus was
supposed to engineer a rise in
activity, and 2011-12, where we
merely hoped for a rise. Now, as the
economy is growing more
organically, we are in a better
position to just let it rise.
191
NORTH AMERICA
2013 could well end up being one of the busiest years for the proliferation of bilateral,
regional and multilateral free trade agreements around the world and heavily
dependent on US leadership. Despite the diminished prospects for reviving the 12 year
old, moribund Doha Development Round in the World Trade Organization, the
ambitious US trade agenda, called for by outgoing US Trade Representative Ron
Kirk is coming true. For starters, the second-term Obama Administration is expected
to be fully engaged in moving to conclusion the 11 nation Trans Pacific Partnership
(TPP) negotiations; has just formally announced to the Congress its intention to enter
into negotiations with 20 trading partners for a comprehensive agreement on trade in
services and may soon announce the launch of a comprehensive US-European Union
Free Trade Agreement. And not to mention ongoing efforts under the WTO to finalise
a trade facilitation agreement and to conclude an expanded Information Technology
Agreement (ITA) combined with possible bilateral investment treaty negotiations with
India and China. Also look for the US negotiating agenda to include expanding trade
partnerships in Africa, especially the East African Community Trade and Investment
Partnership.
192
NORTH AMERICA
secure commitments and new trading disciplines that go beyond WTO rules.
Negotiators seek an agreement that not only eliminates tariff and non-tariff barriers to
core negotiating sectors such as market access for agriculture, goods and services, and
rules governing intellectual property protection, foreign investment, trade remedies,
labor and environment commitments the traditional FTA sectors but it delves into
new horizontal and cross cutting issues such as E-Commerce, competitiveness and
supply chains, state-owned and small to medium-sized enterprises and regulatory
coherence.
193
NORTH AMERICA
ASEAN Trade and Investment
Framework Agreement
talks,
specifically on expanding trade and
customs facilitation, investment
rules and whats called Information
and Communication Technology
(ICT) principles which deal with
intellectual property, telecom and
e-commerce matters.This endeavor
announced by President Obama
during the East Asia Summit
meeting
in
Cambodia
in
November also seeks to prepare the
6 non-TPP ASEAN members in
joining the TPP at a future date.
Challenges ahead
The TPP agenda is daunting, and after 35 months of negotiations, there has been
progress in some areas, but there is much work left to do. Negotiators have yet to get
into the most politically sensitive sectors, particularly market access. Countries are still
very far apart on the scope of the basic SOE framework, IPR, investment, the
environment and on patent protections for medicines to name a few. Late last year,
negotiators set an October 2013 target date for conclusion but most trade watchers
think 2014 is a more realistic timeframe. Ambassador Kirk continues to say that
substance will determine the timing, but is optimistic a final TPP deal can be reached
in the near future. Focus now is on the 16th round to be held in Singapore early next
month.
194
COUNTRY PROFILE
Canada
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.2
1,577.0
13.1
6.4
39.4
88.2
8.0
34.1
38.4
85.1
-49.4
-3.1
2011
2.4
1,739.0
7.0
4.6
52.6
113.3
7.5
34.4
38.3
85.4
-48.9
-2.8
2012
1.9
1,770.1
4.2
4.3
51.4
117.7
7.3
34.8
38.2
87.5
-59.9
-3.4
2013
2.0
1,839.1
4.6
3.4
50.4
121.2
7.3
35.3
38.6
87.8
-68.2
-3.7
2014
2.4
1,904.8
4.8
4.8
51.0
124.2
7.1
35.8
39.1
84.6
-71.1
-3.7
2015
2.4
1,974.0
4.5
5.5
51.5
126.6
6.9
36.2
39.5
82.3
-69.0
-3.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 1
81.82
84.70 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
8.2
6.9
8
6.9
7
73.93
9
8.6
8.9
8.5
8.6
8.7
87.15
8.3
7.3
7.81
8.09
78.7
6.06
10
9.56
2011
8.5
7.4
8.2
7.3
7.4
77.4
9
8.8
9
8.5
8.8
9
88.37
7.8
7.3
7.95
8.12
77.95
7.24
10
9.88
195
COUNTRY PROFILE
2010
2.4
14,498.9
12.5
11.1
353.8
70.9
9.6
309.7
31.7
98.6
-442.0
-3.0
2011
1.8
15,075.7
4.8
6.7
462.3
113.2
9.0
311.9
31.4
102.9
-465.9
-3.1
2012
2.2
15,653.4
3.5
4.3
458.5
111.3
8.2
314.3
32.0
107.2
-486.5
-3.1
2013
2.1
16,198.0
3.6
4.3
464.9
110.2
8.1
317.3
33.2
111.7
-499.3
-3.1
2014
2.9
16,912.5
4.6
4.8
457.9
105.5
7.7
320.3
34.2
113.8
-523.2
-3.1
2015
3.4
17,768.4
5.3
5.0
453.2
101.1
7.1
323.3
35.0
114.2
-565.4
-3.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
74.65
76.28 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
196
2012
6.2
5.4
6.9
5.2
4.6
56.57
8.4
8.2
8.6
8.1
7.7
7.7
81.15
8.3
7.4
8.09
7.71
78.55
6
9.79
9.71
2011
6.1
5.7
6.8
5.2
4.6
56.89
8.8
8.4
8.7
8.3
8.1
8.2
83.99
8.1
7.6
8.18
7.64
78.68
6.51
9.79
9.92
United States
Export-Import Bank of the United States (US Ex-Im)
811 Vermont Avenue
N.W., Washington, D.C. 20571
USA
Tel:
202-565-3946
Fax:
202-565-3840
Website: www.exim.gov
197
198
LATIN
AMERICA
RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL
With the infrastructure demands associated with upcoming World Cup and Rio
Olympics, there is much to be done in the trade finance sphere in Latin America. The
cities of Brazil though are just the tip of the iceberg, with huge infrastructure investment
required across the country and the wider region. Energy and petrochemicals continue
to account for a large portion of activity in the region, in conjunction with mining,
metals, pulp and agribusiness. In addition to its New York office, SMBCs Global Trade
Finance Network has a presence in Sao Paulo to cover the region. For full details see the
SMBC Global Directory.
Contents
Brazils economic performance a review Filipe Lage de Sousa - PhD from London
School of Economics (LSE) and Researcher at Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES), and
Luiz Eduardo Miranda Cruz Economist at BNDES
Internationalisation as central to IDB strategy: Promoting SME export and investment
growth in Latin America and the Caribbean
Country profiles
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Costa Rica
Ecuador
El Salvador
Guatemala
Mexico
Panama
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Agency contact details
199
LATIN AMERICA
An economic challenge for any country is developing with price stability and income
inequality reduction. In this sense, the Brazilian economy represents an example for
other countries, at least in the last 10 years. Between 2000 and 2011, Brazils GDP
growth achieved an annual increase of 4% on average; far beyond the two previous
decades mean (2% per year). Regarding economic stability, inflation rate has remained
on average less than 5.5% annually from 2004 to 2012. Moreover, poverty rate has
declined from a quarter of Brazilian Population to around 10% during the same period
as a result of government conditional cash transfer programmes. These figures
demonstrate how Brazil is overcoming its socio-economic shortcomings by promoting
development based on three pillars: economic growth; stable environment; and social
improvements.There is a diverse range of factors explaining this success, from domestic
reasons, including anti-cycle policy design, to a favorable international environment.
Our aim here is to show how international trade has benefited or threatened the
Brazilian economy over the last years, as well as its opportunities and challenges.
It is common knowledge that the emergence of China as a world economic power has
improved terms of trade for the majority of developing countries, since commodities
prices had scaled up to an incredible level. According to the World Bank, those prices
have nearly quadrupled after China joined the World Trade Organization in
November 2001. As a consequence, there was an export boom in most countries in
which commodities are the main goods sold abroad. Brazil is not an exception to this
rule. Brazilian exports have increased from $55 billion in 2000 to $243 billion last year,
in other words, 13.1% annual growth. As a consequence, trade surplus was nearly $30
billion on average since 2002. This performance is a record for the Brazilian trade
balance, as this surplus has remained over $10 billion for more than 10 years, this has
never happened in the Brazilian economic history.
200
LATIN AMERICA
Brazil is also considered one of the few countries able to boost agriculture production
by productivity increase in the years to come, in other words, without using extra land.
Recent productivity growth in this sector provides evidence for this argument.
Demand for food tends to increase as population in developing world is moving to
cities as well as there is a continuous enlargement of middle class in those countries.
Therefore, Brazil will remain an important player in international trade regarding food
market. Opportunities to expand its share in this market are expressive, since Brazil is
already very competitive and there are opportunities to increase value added by selling
more industrialized goods.
Although benefits exist, threats are also present. Imports have increased substantially,
especially in sectors based on scale and technology. According to a special publication
launched by BNDES to celebrate
its 60th anniversary1, deficits in
those sectors have increased steadily
in the last years, especially after
2006
when
Brazil
was
experiencing rapid GDP growth.
Although it was important to keep
inflation at a low rate at that
moment, as demand rise was over
domestic production expressive
increase, this fact might create a
pressure on these sectors in the
long run. If those dynamic sectors
shrink in an industrialized country
like Brazil, that may impinge
technological upgrade in all
sectors. Moreover, a shift in terms
of trade towards a different direction, as occurred recently, might be harmful in the
future. This would not be a drawback if those sectors were experiencing productivity
growth over national average, but only some of them have performed well according
to the last data available.
It is essential to have
growth based on social and
environmental sustainability,
since humanity should be able to
use natural resources in a more
efficient manner.
These import threats pose challenges. Asian countries, including China, are exporting
manufacturing goods in a crescent path over the last years, which means fiercer
competition in international market. There is a debate in the international arena on
whether other countries, including Brazil, will be able to continue selling
manufacturing goods if products from Asian countries, especially from China, remain
gaining market by charging a cheaper price. Moreover, exports from those countries
are moving towards most technological and sophisticated markets, where innovation is
crucial. If Brazil wants to keep its diversified economy and international
competitiveness, it should improve industry productivity faster than the recent
performance.
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LATIN AMERICA
Aware of those opportunities and challenges, it is relevant to emphasise that there is a
track which should be followed in the years to come. It is essential to have growth
based on social and environmental sustainability, since humanity should be able to use
natural resources in a more efficient manner. This efficiency will only be possible
through innovation, fuel for a real dynamism for the Brazilian economy. From this
idea, Brazil will be able to reach a new level of development and overcome the
middle-income trap.
In order to achieve this goal, government support is crucial. Brazilian Development
Bank (BNDES) has as its main duty promoting a sustainable development of the
Brazilian economy. For that, BNDES was able to change its operational rules over its
existence due to its capacity to understand the Brazilian economy stage. Bearing in
mind the country development level, it is feasible to draw new policies to address any
shortcoming as well as to take advantages of the opportunities found. Because of that,
when it was evidenced that domestic firms were lacking financial support to sell their
products abroad in the 90s, BNDES started to finance exports by creating its export
credit program BNDES EXIM.
BNDES EXIM provides trade financing to exporting companies established under the
Brazilian law. BNDES EXIM offers two credit lines: a) pre-shipment credit, which
supplies working capital for Brazilian exporters; b) post-shipment credit, which targets
the commercialization of exported goods and services through buyers or suppliers
credit category, in accordance with international standards.
There is traditionally an inadequate supply of medium and long-term trade finance in
developing countries. BNDES EXIM credit lines fill this gap, supporting knowledge
intensive products, such as high value-added manufacturing, software and engineering
services. These are goods and services that require longer terms for manufacturing
and/or commercialization. As such, they occupy a niche in the trade finance market in
which private banks in Brazil are unwilling to engage yet. As a result, the amount of
202
LATIN AMERICA
BNDES EXIM supported exports is small when all Brazilian exports are taken into
account, but noteworthy among high added value exports.
As it can be seen in figure 1, BNDES EXIM total disbursement increased from
$2.1 billion dollars in 1999 to $5.5. billion dollars by the end of 2012. The out of the
ordinary disbursements of 2009 and 2010 reflect the effects of the global financial
crisis. Trade finance dried up amid crisis, and developing countries were hit the
hardest. BNDES EXIM stepped in and provided trade finance when banks were
unable to do it. That explains the increase in the disbursement for this couple of years.
Since then the private sources of trade finance have returned and, as a result, BNDES
EXIM disbursements have decreased.
Figure 2 highlights the distribution of last year disbursements by type of product
financed. Capital goods represented 61% of the total disbursements of 2012. This
group includes buses, trucks, light commercial vehicles, industrial machinery and
equipment, and aircraft. The exports of engineering and construction services and of
software accounted for 26%. Labor intensive consumption goods, such as footwear,
textiles, processed food and furniture were 13% of the total.
Latin American countries have been a major destination of exports financed by
BNDES since the inception of the program in 1990. Figure 3 shows how postshipment disbursements were distributed among regions in 2012. Pre-shipment credit
is not included in this figure because the working capital supplied under this credit line
cannot be easily linked to a
particular country, as a given
Figure 2: BNDES EXIM Disbursements, 2012
disbursement can be used to
finance
exports
to
many
destinations at the same time. Postshipment credit, on the other hand,
is directly connected to a good or
service supplied to a particular
importer.
203
LATIN AMERICA
credit supplied. The portfolio of these projects includes a large number of dams,
pipelines, aqueducts, subways, transmission lines and gas infrastructure.
The figure also shows that last year 31% of disbursements were directed to countries in
Africa. In the region, Angola is the leading export destination for Brazilian exports
financed by BNDES, involving mainly goods and services for infrastructure
development. These exports include the construction of hydropower plants,
transmission lines, highways, vocational training centers for the local population,
sanitation systems, water distribution pipes and an airport. Other African countries,
like Mozambique and Ghana, also relied on financing from BNDES for infrastructure
projects. USA, Europe and Asia total 20% of the financed exports under this credit line.
In 2012, aircraft stand as the main exports to these regions.
Future development of international trade is uncertain, as the main drivers of today
might not remain in the future. However, current situation in this arena provides
evidence that government support is relevant. Throughout its history, BNDES has
played a decisive role in the Brazilian economy, among which allowing domestic firms
to compete on equal terms in the foreign market, especially in value added export
goods.
NOTE
1 BNDES 60 Anos: Perspectivas Setoriais (2013). Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Forthcoming in English in
2013 (second term).
204
LATIN AMERICA
While market turbulence rattles the economic well-being of the developed world,
developing economies such as those in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) are
expected to fare relatively well in 2013. The Economist expects up to 4% regional
growth an improvement from 2012. Sound political and economic policies in
Mexico, Peru, Chile and Colombia, monetary stimulus in Brazil and the increased
purchasing power of the regions emerging middle class will keep LAC on an upward
trajectory. Opportunities for continued growth exist through internationalisation
supporting local companies expand trade and investment on an intraregional and
global level.
Trade trends in LAC are slowing but still optimistic compared to other continents.
According to the Inter-American Development Banks (IDB) estimates, LACs exports
increased by only 1.5% in 2012, after growing rapidly (over 25%) from 2010 to 2011 as
the world rebounded from financial crisis. Imports also increased in 2012, advancing at
a slightly faster rate of 4%. LACs 2012 export growth was composed of 2.1% growth
in intraregional exports, 2.4% increase in North American exports and a decline of
over 5% in exports to Europe. During 2012 exports to Asia grew less than 1%.
Exports to the United States and Canada dominate LAC trade (41%) followed by
intraregional (18%) and Asian (17%) trade.1 Focusing on intraregional trade levels, Asia
and the European Union have significantly higher rates at 40% and 60%, respectively,
suggesting that the LAC region has room to establish new and higher volume trade
nearby. In a December 2012 report published by the IDB, trade trends fluctuate
significantly on a country-level. Growth in Mexican and Central American export
markets was offset by a contraction in Chilean and MERCOSUR countries, which
suffered from commodity price and demand declines. And Peru, Colombia and Bolivia
experienced strong export growth the consequence of the US market uptick and
their Asian market expansion.2
205
LATIN AMERICA
Foreign direct investment (FDI) in LAC, on the other hand, spiked to a record high in
2011 capping out at $145 billion.3 China is playing a growing role in this influx of
capital but emerging opportunities exist for intraregional investment, especially in the
construction, manufacturing and natural resource sectors. The rise of the multilatina
the name given to multinationals with Latin American origins also explains the
swell in FDI in certain LAC countries. As of 2010, Brazil with 27 companies, followed
by Mexico and Chile with 15 and 14 companies, respectively, were the leading
countries with multilatinas investing both inside and outside the region.4
206
LATIN AMERICA
LAC seeking to increase and diversify their funding sources for trade transactions.
Since becoming operational in 2005, the TFFP now includes 89 Issuing Banks in 21
LAC countries with guarantees and loans amounting to over $2.2 billion supporting
over 3,083 individual trade transactions worth $2.8 billion. Through its network of
international Confirming Banks, the program involves 256 Confirming Banks in 55
countries. Growth in recent years has gained significant momentum. In 2012 alone, the
TFFP approved deals amounting to $772 million which account for 1,127 underlying
trade transactions valued at $849.82 million.
To further trade in the region, the IDB has bolstered its focus on internationalisation,
especially of the regions underserved economic players small and medium
enterprises (SMEs). Internationalisation, however, is not easy. While even large
companies in LAC struggle to understand, identify and execute opportunities beyond
their host country borders, SMEs face additional difficulties given their limited
knowledge of international markets. SMEs fill a critical void as a key supplier of goods
and services, innovation and job creation, representing more than 90% of the regions
companies and employment, but they account for less than 10% of LACs intraregional
trade.5
The goal of the IDBs internationalisation strategy is to facilitate market access for
these important yet smaller economic players, which have the potential to thrive in the
global economy. For example, LAC currently makes up 7-8% of global trade,
compared to Chinas 25%. In the developed OECD countries, 50% of SMEs have
internationalised, and in LAC only 10% have gone abroad.6 The IDB sees this growth
potential in the region as an opportunity to further unite its focus on SMEs with its
products and services in order to foster the export and investment potential of SMEs.
To do so, trade finance funds, access2InternationalSME lines, technical assistance are in
place to strengthen internationalisation, and soon will be joined by a new online
platform called ConnectAmericas.
Trade finance funds are one strategic mechanism the IDB utilises to support SME
exporters. Funds, such as those managed by Crecera and IIG, which include thirdparty equity and long-term funding, continue to provide a stable source of financing
through special-purpose trade vehicles for exporters many of whom are SMEs. To
date the IDB has provided leverage to these funds, which have supported over 125
SMEs in twelve countries in the region through the execution of more than 11,000
different trade transactions. These innovative instruments offer access to finance
for SME clients who would otherwise face unaffordable or limited financing from
traditional sources.
The IDB also offers medium- and long-term loans and guarantees to FIs for their
portfolios dedicated to financing SMEs that seek to export and/or invest outside their
host country. These products have been coined access2InternationalSMEs given their
207
LATIN AMERICA
tailor-made approach to end-borrower internationalisation. With this product, the
IDB aims to promote the local banks role as a catalyst in internationalisation in order
to increase job creation, strengthen human resources, modernise key sectors and
further economic development on a local and regional level.
The IDB also ensures that SMEs are not excluded from international markets by
complementing financial products with technical assistance. On-line and classroom
training are given to FIs and their clients, especially SMEs, so that all parties understand
the value of trade finance products and how to access them. Additionally, direct
consultations with smaller FIs in more developing LAC economies provide solutions
that facilitate their inclusion in the TFFP network, thus ensuring that IDB support
reaches smaller banks and their traditionally more underserved, SME endbeneficiaries.
The IDB is currently working to launch a program called ConnectAmericas, a bankwide project that will offer SMEs a single, user-friendly platform to establish business
links with clients, suppliers and investors from the rest of the region and the world, and
to enable them to obtain information and training tools to export and invest outside
their home country. As a platform that will support SME internationalisation by
tackling three fundamental barriers to trade and FDI access to information, finance
and networks ConnectAmericas will enable SMEs to expand their market through
trade and/or investment growth.
The IDBs approach of combining research with technical assistance and financial
products advances regional growth in a holistic and results-oriented way. Through
knowledge creation, loans, guarantees, direct support and innovative online platforms,
the region has increasingly greater access to information, financing and engaged
networks which help to identify and execute new business opportunities. The
internationalisation of SMEs is one of the many ways the IDB is partnering with the
region to further competitiveness, growth and innovation for generations to come.
Visit us at www.iadb.org for more information.
NOTES:
1 IDB. 2013. Latin American Trade Trend Estimates.Washington, DC.
2 IDB. 2012. Latin America Trade Trend Estimates. Available at
http://www.iadb.org/en/publications/publicationdetail,7101.html?id=67008%20&dcLanguage=en&dcType=All.
3 Economist Intelligence Unit. 2012. Latin America as an FDI hotspot: Opportunities and risks.
4 Moreno, Luis Alberto. 2011. La dcada de Amrica Latina y el Caribe, una oportunidad real. La
segunda edicin ampliada.Washington, DC: Inter-American Development Bank.
5 ECLAC (2009) Panorama Social de Amrica Latina
6 Estevadeordal,Toni. 2012. Speech given at the Opportunities with the Private Sector Group of the
Inter-American Development Bank conference, Madrid, Spain, 19 November.
208
COUNTRY PROFILE
Argentina
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
9.2
367.6
38.4
16.0
4.5
6.5
7.8
40.1
37.2
49.2
2.4
0.7
2011
8.9
444.6
18.9
5.5
9.4
6.5
7.2
40.6
37.3
44.9
-0.3
-0.1
2012
2.6
474.8
-6.9
-1.3
10.5
6.5
7.2
41.0
37.9
45.2
1.3
0.3
2013
3.1
495.1
9.2
7.5
10.9
6.5
7.2
41.5
38.4
42.8
-0.4
-0.1
2014
3.8
507.2
5.5
5.1
11.0
6.5
6.7
42.0
38.5
42.5
-3.7
-0.7
2015
4.0
520.6
6.7
5.1
11.4
6.6
6.7
42.4
38.6
41.6
-6.5
-1.2
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
33.72
38.95 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.2
4.5
2.9
4.9
3.5
39.97
2.5
3
2.6
2.6
2.5
4.6
29.71
5.2
6.3
4.73
3.95
50.38
4.52
1.04
2.25
2011
4.4
5.4
3.3
5.1
4.1
44.65
2.8
3.6
3.3
3.1
3.1
5.3
35.5
5.9
6.4
5.05
4.33
54.14
4.68
1.04
3.5
209
COUNTRY PROFILE
Bolivia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.1
19.8
11.1
2.4
0.6
0.1
2011
5.2
24.1
29.0
3.9
1.0
0.2
2012
5.0
26.7
17.2
8.0
1.1
0.2
2013
5.0
28.7
4.1
3.9
1.1
0.2
2014
5.0
30.5
4.9
4.8
1.1
0.2
2015
5.0
32.5
4.4
3.7
1.1
0.3
10.4
33.2
38.5
1.0
4.9
10.6
36.2
34.7
0.5
2.2
10.8
36.6
34.8
0.5
1.8
11.0
35.7
33.7
0.3
1.1
11.3
35.4
32.6
0.3
0.9
11.5
35.6
31.6
0.1
0.4
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
39.23
35.85 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
210
2012
3.5
5
5.8
5.5
5.3
50.43
3.6
3.3
3.6
3.1
2.3
4.1
33.19
3.5
5
4.11
3.9
41.32
4.97
2.29
2.75
2011
3.5
5.8
4.1
5.2
4.7
46.5
2.4
3
3.4
2.5
2.9
2.7
27.85
4.5
5.5
4.95
4.33
47.94
5.04
1.88
1.83
COUNTRY PROFILE
Brazil
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
7.5
2,142.9
38.2
9.5
26.1
4.0
6.7
193.3
35.4
65.2
-47.3
-2.2
2011
2.7
2,492.9
8.9
2.9
37.5
5.2
6.0
194.9
35.0
64.9
-52.5
-2.1
2012
1.5
2,425.1
2.8
2.0
37.8
5.2
6.0
196.5
35.1
64.1
-62.3
-2.6
2013
4.0
2,503.9
5.3
6.6
39.6
5.4
6.5
198.0
35.3
61.2
-70.1
-2.8
2014
4.2
2,685.3
6.7
8.9
41.7
5.1
7.0
199.5
35.4
58.9
-89.6
-3.3
2015
4.2
2,864.4
6.7
8.2
43.6
5.2
7.0
201.1
35.5
57.3
-95.4
-3.3
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
60.17
62.93 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6.7
5.9
6.1
6.8
5.7
62.38
6.9
4.7
6.3
6
5.7
7.1
61.59
5.7
6.9
4.65
5.58
57.05
4.51
5
7.75
2011
7
6.3
6.3
7
6
65.11
6.9
4.6
6.3
6.1
6
7.2
62.31
5.9
6.9
4.75
5.73
58.01
4.93
4.79
9.13
211
COUNTRY PROFILE
Chile
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
6.1
216.1
27.7
1.4
4.3
0.0
8.2
17.1
23.3
8.6
3.3
1.5
2011
5.9
248.4
14.8
4.7
6.5
0.0
7.1
17.2
24.7
11.3
-3.2
-1.3
2012
5.0
268.3
3.9
3.8
6.3
0.0
6.6
17.4
23.6
11.4
-8.6
-3.2
2013
4.4
292.0
4.2
4.2
6.7
0.0
6.9
17.6
23.0
12.3
-8.8
-3.0
2014
4.6
313.1
4.3
4.2
6.6
0.0
6.9
17.7
22.6
12.6
-9.0
-2.9
2015
4.6
332.0
4.7
4.4
6.7
0.0
6.9
17.9
22.0
12.9
-9.0
-2.7
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 2
74.37
75.24 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
212
2012
8
7.4
7.8
7
8.7
77.63
8.4
7.7
8.3
8.1
7.8
7.8
80.23
7.2
7.5
7.33
6.69
71.81
4.11
7.71
8
2011
8.1
7.6
7.6
6.7
8.5
77.05
7.9
7.4
8.3
8
7.6
7.9
78.52
7
7.6
7.18
6.35
70.14
4.53
7.71
9
COUNTRY PROFILE
Colombia
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.0
284.9
13.8
1.6
2.0
16.5
11.8
45.5
26.2
36.4
-8.8
-3.1
2011
5.9
327.6
21.7
12.3
3.8
28.0
10.8
46.1
26.9
34.2
-10.0
-3.0
2012
4.3
365.4
9.0
8.2
4.1
31.4
11.0
46.6
28.0
32.2
-10.7
-2.9
2013
4.4
387.4
4.9
8.8
4.2
34.8
10.5
47.2
28.2
30.9
-11.2
-2.9
2014
4.4
407.8
4.9
5.8
4.3
35.0
10.0
47.7
27.9
30.0
-10.5
-2.6
2015
4.5
430.1
4.4
4.0
4.5
34.3
9.5
48.3
27.3
29.3
-10.6
-2.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
58.76
59.71 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
7.1
6.9
7.3
5.7
5.8
65.74
7.9
4
6.5
6.1
6.3
7.2
63.69
5.6
6.8
4.33
5.48
55.66
4.47
4.38
5.5
2011
7.2
7.2
7.4
5.5
5.5
65.65
7.6
3.9
6.6
6.3
6.3
7.4
63.8
5.6
6.6
4.14
5.58
55.01
4.72
4.38
6.33
213
COUNTRY PROFILE
Costa Rica
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
4.7
36.2
26.7
12.1
1.6
0.0
7.3
4.6
13.7
29.2
-1.3
-3.5
2011
4.2
40.9
16.9
11.6
2.2
0.0
7.7
4.6
13.8
30.8
-2.2
-5.3
2012
4.8
44.9
6.0
5.4
2.2
0.0
7.5
4.7
14.2
32.7
-2.5
-5.5
2013
4.3
49.2
5.1
3.1
2.2
0.0
6.5
4.7
14.4
34.9
-2.6
-5.3
2014
4.4
52.9
4.1
2.1
2.3
0.0
6.0
4.8
14.5
37.6
-2.8
-5.3
2015
4.5
56.5
3.3
1.6
2.3
0.0
5.5
4.8
14.5
40.5
-3.1
-5.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
50.08
52.27 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
214
2012
4.4
5.5
5.1
5.6
4.3
49.63
5.6
5.3
5.4
6
5
5.6
54.7
5.4
6.1
5.13
5.63
55.47
4.49
3.75
5
2011
4.7
5.8
5.4
5.5
3.8
50.33
5.6
5.2
6
6
5.2
5.5
55.98
5.6
6.1
5
5.33
55
5.13
3.75
6
COUNTRY PROFILE
Ecuador
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
3.6
58.0
16.3
2.3
4.0
9.7
7.6
14.8
34.0
16.1
-1.6
-2.8
2011
7.8
66.5
0.7
8.2
4.9
12.8
6.0
15.0
40.9
18.0
-0.2
-0.3
2012
4.0
70.8
0.9
8.2
6.1
14.4
5.8
15.2
41.2
18.8
-0.2
-0.3
2013
4.1
76.4
2.5
13.5
6.2
17.8
6.2
15.5
43.3
18.8
2.3
3.0
2014
3.8
81.5
2.5
-2.3
6.0
15.5
6.3
15.7
42.0
18.0
0.5
0.6
2015
3.6
86.6
3.5
-1.0
5.9
13.9
6.4
15.9
40.1
18.4
-0.9
-1.0
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 5
35.53
34.91 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
4.6
5.6
5.8
5.6
4.7
52.74
3.3
2.3
2.9
2
2.5
4.2
28.63
4.1
4.8
5.69
4.04
46.68
4.83
0.63
1
2011
4.1
6.3
4.1
5.6
4.4
48.6
2.9
2.9
3.6
2.2
2.8
2.7
28.1
4.6
5
5.66
4.76
49.85
5.16
0.42
1.33
215
COUNTRY PROFILE
El Salvador
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
1.4
21.2
7.5
13.4
1.3
0.0
5.8
5.9
17.3
50.1
-0.7
-3.1
2011
1.4
22.8
6.3
8.2
1.7
0.0
5.8
5.9
17.9
50.8
-1.2
-5.4
2012
1.5
24.0
5.6
5.0
1.9
0.0
5.5
5.9
18.5
51.8
-1.2
-5.0
2013
2.0
25.2
4.7
5.2
1.8
0.0
5.3
6.0
18.7
51.7
-1.1
-4.3
2014
2.0
26.5
5.3
4.6
1.8
0.0
5.0
6.0
18.9
51.1
-1.0
-3.7
2015
2.5
27.9
5.5
5.0
1.7
0.0
4.8
6.1
19.1
50.2
-1.0
-3.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
43.55
42.62 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
216
2012
5.1
4.9
5.3
6.5
4.3
52.14
4.5
4.5
4.7
5.3
4.3
4
45.82
3.5
4.7
4.43
4.93
43.93
3.34
2.92
3.5
2011
5
4.9
5.7
6.3
4.2
51.8
4.2
4.4
5.3
5.4
4.8
4.3
46.96
3.8
4.4
4.1
5
43.25
4.25
2.92
1.5
COUNTRY PROFILE
Guatemala
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
2.9
41.3
9.3
5.9
2.3
0.2
2011
3.9
46.9
4.6
4.4
3.1
0.3
2012
3.1
50.3
5.0
4.1
3.1
0.3
2013
3.2
53.2
4.6
3.8
3.1
0.3
2014
3.3
56.4
5.0
4.1
3.1
0.2
2015
3.4
59.8
4.9
4.0
3.2
0.2
14.4
11.2
24.1
-0.6
-1.5
14.7
11.8
24.1
-1.5
-3.1
15.1
11.7
24.9
-1.8
-3.5
15.5
12.6
25.4
-1.9
-3.6
15.9
12.9
25.7
-2.1
-3.6
16.3
13.0
25.9
-2.2
-3.6
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
37.41
35.69 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
3.7
4.8
4.2
3.9
4.7
42.57
4.1
3.6
2.9
4
2.9
4.1
35.92
1.4
3
3.57
2.57
26.25
4.17
3.54
3.5
2011
3.1
4.9
4
3.6
4.2
39.8
3.7
3.2
3.3
3.7
3.3
2.7
33.18
1.4
2
3.1
1.5
20
4.75
3.54
3.5
217
COUNTRY PROFILE
Mexico
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
5.6
1,035.5
20.7
21.7
30.2
41.7
5.4
112.3
21.7
42.9
-4.5
-0.4
2011
3.9
1,154.0
6.8
6.7
42.7
56.4
5.2
113.7
22.1
43.8
-11.1
-1.0
2012
3.8
1,162.9
4.4
4.9
45.1
56.9
4.8
114.9
23.2
43.1
-11.0
-0.9
2013
3.5
1,210.2
5.1
6.0
46.2
56.4
4.8
116.0
23.1
43.2
-13.7
-1.1
2014
3.5
1,274.4
6.6
6.9
45.9
54.0
4.5
117.2
23.1
43.2
-12.8
-1.0
2015
3.3
1,340.3
7.9
8.2
45.5
51.8
4.5
118.4
23.3
43.1
-14.8
-1.1
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
58.9
58.69 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
218
2012
6.5
5.9
6.9
6.2
6.3
63.39
6.9
4
5.8
5.5
5.8
5.3
55.75
6.2
7.1
6.19
5.33
62.1
4.74
5.21
7
2011
6.1
5.2
6.3
5.9
5.8
58.64
6.4
3.8
6.1
5.3
5.8
5.1
54.38
6.5
7
5.99
5.21
61.71
5.26
5.21
8.17
COUNTRY PROFILE
Panama
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
7.6
26.6
28.3
-11.4
1.6
1.6
4.5
3.5
24.9
39.2
-2.9
-10.8
2011
10.6
30.6
14.9
7.3
2.3
2.0
4.2
3.6
24.8
37.8
-3.9
-12.8
2012
8.5
34.8
5.3
8.7
2.4
2.0
4.2
3.7
24.3
36.1
-4.2
-12.1
2013
7.5
38.0
10.3
6.7
2.4
1.9
4.2
3.7
24.0
35.9
-4.5
-11.8
2014
6.8
41.6
-1.2
6.5
2.5
1.9
4.2
3.8
23.7
35.5
-4.8
-11.5
2015
6.3
45.2
5.2
8.0
2.6
1.8
4.2
3.9
24.3
32.5
-4.9
-10.8
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
56.74
57.59 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6.5
7
5.5
7.3
6.1
65
7
5.3
5.5
5.8
5.2
5.2
56.75
4.4
5.3
5.56
4.94
50.69
4.33
4.79
6
2011
6.6
7.1
6.2
7
6.1
65.83
6.5
4.7
6.1
5.9
5.6
5.2
56.48
4.7
5.1
5.42
4.58
49.38
4.71
4.58
6.67
219
COUNTRY PROFILE
Paraguay
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
13.1
20.7
34.8
27.8
1.1
0.0
5.7
6.4
19.4
13.7
-0.6
-3.1
2011
4.3
24.1
7.8
9.5
1.5
0.0
5.6
6.5
19.9
12.0
-0.2
-1.0
2012
-1.5
26.1
-4.8
-7.9
1.6
0.0
5.8
6.7
21.1
12.9
-0.3
-1.1
2013
11.0
31.1
17.5
22.4
1.7
0.0
5.4
6.8
20.9
12.0
-0.1
-0.4
2014
4.6
34.2
6.0
4.8
1.7
0.0
5.5
6.9
20.8
11.8
-0.4
-1.3
2015
4.7
36.3
5.5
4.7
1.7
0.0
5.5
7.1
20.6
10.4
-0.5
-1.5
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 4
40.63
43.50 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
220
2012
5.3
5.4
5.6
5.1
6.1
54.89
6
2
2.3
3
2.7
4.7
34.82
4
5.4
4.21
3.99
44.06
5.12
2.19
2
2011
5.4
6.1
5.1
5.5
6.3
56.83
4.6
2.5
3.1
3.4
3.5
4.2
35.56
5.4
6.5
5.07
5.48
56.08
5.30
1.88
3
COUNTRY PROFILE
Peru
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
8.8
153.9
24.6
1.6
4.1
3.1
7.9
29.6
20.0
24.6
-3.8
-2.5
2011
6.9
177.2
12.7
8.4
5.7
4.7
7.7
30.0
21.6
20.9
-3.3
-1.9
2012
6.0
200.3
9.5
2.3
6.2
5.2
7.5
30.5
21.1
19.6
-6.1
-3.0
2013
5.8
212.0
6.3
8.7
6.5
5.6
7.5
30.9
21.4
18.3
-6.3
-3.0
2014
6.0
227.5
8.0
11.2
6.6
5.0
7.5
31.4
21.5
17.6
-6.1
-2.7
2015
6.0
245.1
7.8
8.9
6.7
4.8
7.5
31.9
21.8
17.0
-6.6
-2.7
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
56.95
55.79 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
2012
6.4
7.4
7.3
6
7.3
68.64
5.6
4.1
5.9
4.9
5.3
5.2
51.72
4.9
5.9
5.06
4.74
51.36
4.94
5
5.75
2011
5.8
7.4
7.1
5.9
6.8
65.8
5.3
4
6
5.1
5.2
4.4
49.93
5.1
5.4
4.69
4.84
50.15
4.88
4.38
6.5
221
COUNTRY PROFILE
Uruguay
% change in nominal GDP
Nominal GDP (USD billions)
% change in imports
% change in exports
Value of oil imports (USD billions)
Value of oil exports (USD billions)
Unemployment rate (%)
Population (millions)
Government revenue (%GDP)
Government gross debt (%GDP)
Current Acct balance (USD billions)
Current Acct balance (%GDP)
2010
8.9
39.4
10.9
14.0
1.6
0.0
6.7
3.4
32.2
57.9
-0.9
-2.2
2011
5.7
46.7
11.7
6.3
2.0
0.0
6.0
3.4
31.7
55.1
-1.4
-3.1
2012
3.5
49.7
6.0
4.7
1.7
0.0
6.7
3.4
32.0
51.2
-1.5
-3.0
2013
4.0
57.3
6.6
6.4
1.7
0.0
7.0
3.4
33.3
45.4
-1.1
-1.9
2014
4.0
60.9
7.6
6.2
1.8
0.0
7.0
3.4
33.7
42.7
-1.0
-1.7
2015
4.0
64.4
8.2
4.9
2.0
0.0
7.0
3.4
33.8
40.4
-1.2
-1.9
(Source: IMF)
Euromoney
Country Risk Rating 2012
ECR Tier 3
51.92
50.26 (2011)
Bank stability
GNP outlook
Monetary policy
Unemployment
Govt finances
Economical assessment
Govt non-payment
Corruption
Transparency
Institutional risk
Regulatory environment
Govt stability
Political assessment
Soft infrastructure
Demographics
Hard infrastructure
Industrial relations
Structural assessment
Debt indicators
Credit ratings
Access to capital
222
2012
4.3
6
5.7
6.6
5.9
57
5.1
6.3
5.1
5.2
4.9
5.4
53.22
5.3
5.8
5.11
5.44
54.17
4.52
4.17
4.75
2011
4.2
6.5
4.9
6.5
5.8
55.83
4.5
6.5
5
5
4.8
5.2
51.48
5.7
5.9
5.25
5.5
55.83
4.98
3.75
3.75
Brazil
Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econmico e Social BNDES
Av. Repblica do Chile, 100 / 18th floor 20031-917 Rio de Janeiro RJ, Brazil
Tel:
(+55) 21 2172-7921/8323
Fax:
(+55) 21 2262-1470
Website: www.bndes.gov.br
Colombia
Fondo Nacional de Garantas S.A. (FNG)
Carrera 13 No. 32 51 Int. 1
Bogot
Colombia
Tel:
3239000 ext. 4048
Website: www.fng.gov.co
223
Mexico
Banco Nacional de Comercio Exterior (Bancomext)
Perifrico Sur 4333, Colonia Jardines en la Montaa, 14210 Mexico DF, Mexico
Tel:
(+52) 54 49 90 00
Fax:
(+52) 54 49 90 28
Website: www.bancomext.com
Peru
Corporacin Financiera de Desarrollo (COFIDE)
Augusto Tamayo 160, San Isidro, Lima, Peru
Tel:
(+51) 1 615 4000
Fax:
(+51) 1 442 3374
Website: www.cofide.com.pe
Uruguay
Banco de Seguros del Estado
Libertador 1465, Montevideo, Uruguay
Tel:
(+598) 2 908 9303
Fax:
(+598) 2 908 9288
Website: www.bse.com.uy
224
225
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The activities of GTFD are coordinated by the following four main product teams:
229
Typical tenors
Short Term (up to 3 years)
Available structures
Working Capital Finance, Import Finance, Supply Chain Finance
Financing purposes
Generally focused on assisting customers in financing their existing balance sheets
l GTFDs Corporate Trade Solutions & Supply Chain Finance (Trade Solutions)
team works with both exporters and importers, providing a broad range of trade
finance solutions (ranging from short to medium and long-term products) to
support their domestic and cross border sales around the globe.
l The mission of SMBCs Trade Solutions group is to provide a One-Stop-Shop
service for trade finance products to new and existing clients worldwide. Trade
Solutions supports the expansion of sales for existing clients by providing them
with new trade finance solutions.
l SMBC coordinates with our global network to provide customized solutions
that match our clients objectives.
l SMBC also provides local market knowledge and product expertise and can
structure financial solutions. SMBCs Trade Solutions team supports these
transactions from origination to completion.
230
Typical tenors
Medium Term (up to 7 - 10 years)
Long Term (up to 20 years)
Available structures
Corporate Lending, Limited Recourse Project Finance, Aircraft Finance
Financing purposes
To support export of capital goods & services, typically used in the implementation of
large capex investments
l GTFDs Export & Agency Finance team (EAF) has extensive experience
providing advisory and arranging services for Export Credit Agency,
Development Bank and Multilateral Agency (collectively, the Agencies)
financings.
l SMBCs presence in the Agency universe is extensive. SMBC has successfully
acted as financial advisor, mandated lead arranger and Agency coordinator to
borrowers and projects worldwide.
l EAF also maintains extensive relationships with many Agencies around the globe
and currently employs many former members of these institutions, providing
SMBC with a deep understanding of structuring, operating and monitoring
needs of Agency finance.
231
Typical tenors
Short Term (under 1 year)
Available structures
Solid confirmations, BA / Payment Discounting
Financing purposes
To facilitate bank liquidity and trade finance
l GTFDs Financial Institution Trade Finance team maintains well established
correspondent relationships with leading banks in emerging markets. SMBC
provides trade financing to these institutions in the Asia-Pacific Region, Europe,
the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas.
l SMBC provides an array of services to banks, including:
L/C confirmation and refinancing
Bankers Acceptance discounting
Payment and counter guarantees
Pre-export financing
232
Typical tenors
Short Term (under 3 years)
Available structures
Receivables Discounting, Payment Guarantees, Borrowing Base Lending
Financing purposes
To finance the flow of commodities from production to use
l GTFDs Structured Trade & Commodity Finance team provides short-term, selfliquidating finance facilities to a range of trading companies from the mid-sized
specialist product trader to the globally-integrated major trading houses.
l Structured Trade & Commodity Finance focuses on energy products,
agricultural commodities, steel and base metals. Generally, SMBC targets
financings where there are liquid terminal markets for the underlying
commodity.
l SMBCs Structured Trade & Commodity Finance team operates on a global
basis, providing comprehensive solutions for commodity producers, traders and
buyers.
l We employ a team of professionals with extensive experience in commodity
finance and offer our clients a range of traditional and structured commodity
finance solutions.
233
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235
236
Americas
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
Your contact points New York
Mr. Eli Hassine
Co-General Manager
Tel: +1 (212) 224 4830
Email: eli_hassine@smbcgroup.com
237
238
239
240
241
Asia Pacific
Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation
Your contact points Singapore
Mr. Hiromitsu Otsu
Joint General Manager
Tel: +65 6882 0703
Email: hiromitsu_otsu@sg.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Takeshi Kimoto
Senior Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0220
Email: takeshi_kimoto@sg.smbc.co.jp
Structured Trade & Commodities Finance
Mr. Raymond Tan (Metals & Soft Commodity)
First Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0226
Email: raymond_tan@sg.smbc.co.jp
Ms. Eunice Chin (Oil & Energy)
First Vice President
Tel: +65 6882 0481
Email: eunice_chin@sg.smbc.co.jp
Export & Agency Finance
Mr. Jun Palanca
Senior Vice President, Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +65 6882 0682
Email: jun_palanca@sg.smbc.co.jp
Mr. Takehisa Manabe
First Vice President, Export & Agency Finance
Tel: +65 6882 0212
Email: takehisa_manabe@sg.smbc.co.jp
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Jakarta, Indonesia
February 2012
Barcelona, Spain
October 2012
251
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February 13th
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February 28
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March
253
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April 3
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Washington, DC, USA
April 4-5
April 8
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April 15-19
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April 19-21
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June 9-11
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254
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September 18
October
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October
October
October 7
London, UK
October 8
London, UK
October 11-13
October 16
Toronto, Canada
October 21-25
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November
November
November
November 6
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November 17-19
December
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255
QUICK REFERENCE
IMF World Economic Outlook GDP Growth Projections
(Percent change unless noted otherwise) Year over Year
2011
3.9
1.6
1.8
1.4
3.1
1.7
0.4
0.4
0.6
0.9
2.6
3.3
4
6.3
5.3
4.9
4.3
6.2
8
9.3
7.9
4.5
4.5
2.7
3.9
3.5
5.3
3.5
1.6
2.9
5.9
2012
3.2
1.3
2.3
0.4
0.9
0.2
2.1
1.4
2
0.2
2
1.9
1.8
5.1
1.8
3.6
3.6
3.9
6.6
7.8
4.5
5.7
3
1
3.8
5.2
4.8
2.3
0.2
2.5
2.8
2013
3.5
1.4
2
0.2
0.6
0.3
1.0
1.5
1.2
1
1.8
2.7
3.2
5.5
2.4
3.8
3.7
4.3
7.1
8.2
5.9
5.5
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
5.8
2.8
0.2
2.7
3.8
2014
4.1
2.2
3
1
1.4
0.9
0.5
0.8
0.7
1.9
2.3
3.3
3.9
5.9
3.1
4.1
3.8
4.7
7.5
8.5
6.4
5.7
3.9
4
3.5
3.8
5.7
4.1
1.4
3.4
5.5
4.6
8.4
1.2
6.1
2.2
6.5
4.1
7.8
5.6
6.6
2.1
3.6
2.8
5.5
4.5
6.9
31.6
17.8
1
9.8
5.1
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.7
7.2
2
6.1
1.6
6.1
1.8
5.5
0.5
1.4
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.1
0.6
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
Note: Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during November 12December 10, 2012. When
economies are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. The aggregated quarterly data are seasonally adjusted.
(1) The quarterly estimates and projections account for 90 percent of the world purchasing-power-parity weights.
(2) Excludes the G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, United States) and Euro Area countries.
(3) The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80% of the emerging market and developing economies.
(4) Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam.
(5) Regional and global aggregates include South Sudan.
(6) Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average price of oil in US dollars a barrel was $105.08
in 2012; the assumed price based on futures markets is $99.71in 2013 and $96.78 in 2014.
(7) Six-month rate for the United States and Japan. Three-month rate for the euro area.
256
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