Manila Bay Delta Challenge Main Report Website

MANILA BAY DELTA CHALLENGE
MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH ON FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN

THE PAMPANGA DELTA
MAIN REPORT
MARCH 2014
Title
Manila Bay Delta Challenge
Subtitle
Multidisciplinary Research on Flood Prone Areas in

the Pampanga Delta
Type
Multidisciplinary Project, TU Delft
Project initiated by
Mr Evert de Boer (Filippijnengroep Nederland)

Mr Dick Groeneveld (Filippijnengroep Nederland)
Mr Angel Lontok Cruz (Major of Hagonoy, Bulacan,
Philippines)
Supervisor
Prof. dr. ir. Nick van de Giesen (TU Delft)
Project group (TU Delft)
Joris de Vos Water Resources Management

(Water Management)
Frans Willem Hamer Sanitary Engineering (Water
Management)
Dirk Diederen Hydrology (Water Management)
Ante Zori Water Management & Engineering
(Hydraulic Engineering)
Institute
Date
Delft University of Technology

Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences
March 2014
MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014
Partners
Bulacan State University
Universiteitsfonds Delft
Royal Haskoning DHV
StuDevelopment fund
Development Bank of the Philippines
Filippijnengroep Nederland
Preface
This report is the result of our multidisciplinary project on the flood prone delta of the rivers Pampanga and
Angat, north of Manila Bay in the Philippines. The project is the follow up of the collaboration of eight
municipalities in the delta: Macabebe, Masantol, Calumpit, Hagonoy, Paomong, Malolos, Bulacan and
Obando. Therefore, the mentioned will be the direct beneficiaries of this research. For us, the project is
part of the master track Water Management and the track Hydraulic Engineering at the Delft University of
Technology in the Netherlands.
At the start of the academic year in September, we started with the preparations. From the end of
November 2013 until halfway January 2014 we have been working in the Philippines, where we gathered
data from various institutions and where we performed field work. Back in the Netherlands, we have
focussed on modelling and processing of the data.
During our research, we have received a lot of help from numerous persons. First of all, we would like to
thank Angel Cruz for his commitment to the project and above all the inhabitants of the delta. You made us
feel welcome from the moment we arrived, and have been our watchful father, guide and host during our
stay.
The project would not have been possible without the efforts and initiatives of our Professor Nick van de
Giesen (TU Delft), Fons Nelen (Nelen&Schuurmans), Rien Dam (Deltares) and Evert de Boer and Dick
Groeneveld (FGN), especially during the preparations.
Seb, we would like to thank you as our mother in the field for your assistance, communication and
organisation of all our trips; of course your Marcy, who took us to places even he has never been before;
and April May, who gave us insight in the local conditions during the family visits.
We are very grateful to Dr. Mariano C. De Jesus and Engr. Romeo D. Robles from the Bulacan State
University, for the cooperation, hospitality and our research associates: Mara Pearl Domingo, Elmer Capiral
Libiran, Gerri Joseph Bernardo, Lorrie Mia San Pedro and Carl Stephen Rodriguez. It was most pleasant
spending time with you, both during the fieldwork and in our free time.
We will remember Maria Dolores C. Guevarra (DBP) and Wouter de Hamer (RoyalHaskoning-DHV) for their
hospitality and we would like to thank them for their advice and directions.
Of all the institutions we have visited we would like to thank in particular for their hospitality, fervour and
trust: Hilton T. Hernando (PAGASA), Victor B. Ubaldo (NDC-NEDA), Rommel Pajela (Health Office Hagonoy),
Marvin Reyes and Eugene C. Miguel (Municipality of Hagonoy) and Danilo A. Fajardo (Hydroterre and
HWD).
At last, we have to admit that we still feel a bit homesick because of you Susan, as you have been our
caring mother at the house and you have let us have a countless amount of tastes of the Filipino cuisine
and the stupendous Filipino warm heartedness.
Ante, Dirk, Frans Willem and Joris
Abstract
This document contains qualitative and quantitative descriptions of the Pampanga Delta with its flood
scenarios, assessment of initial consequences and possible future outcomes of proposed solutions.
Moreover, it has the goal to use as a guideline for sustainable development of the whole region, based on an
integrated water management approach.
Since olden times the Philippines deal with water related problems. In many low-lying areas floods are of
monthly occurrence, which cause socio economic catastrophes. This resulted in a promising collaboration
between eight municipalities in the delta. In this report, the initial situation has been described and
elaborated further in order to cope with the broad flooding issue.
In an integrated water management approach method one aims for social equity, economic efficiency and
environmental sustainability. In order to achieve these goals, numerous aspects have to be combined and in
the plenitude of choices, our team had decided to scout the delta by means of direct physical analysis and
through channel modelling with available and newly collected data. Due to temporal, logistical and financial
constraints, the team was limited to investigate the main rivers and relatively easy accessible areas.
The fieldwork consisted of doing interviews with those directly affected by floods, and salinity and depth
measurements on the rivers. These data have been used for land use validation, channel profile modelling
and scenario forecasting and are the main contributions to this report.
When coping with such a broad problem, one has to deal with various stakeholders. These are divided in
formal and non-formal stakeholders, which all have different impacts on the decision making process.
Rainfall data from gauges is available as catchment input for runoff forecasting. This has been elaborated for
the city of Zaragoza in order to illustrate the possibilities for data quantification and to determine the
accuracy of the existing measuring locations. The reliability of available rainfall runoff-height relations has
been explained and river discharge models have been established with the software toolkit SOBEK, based on
river profile measurements and calculated and technically supported assumptions for discharges. This model
which embodies some important key principles of spatial and temporal flood intensity prediction has
been compared to previously required flood maps. Based on a qualitative field research on the runoff
profiles, careful conclusions have been drawn on dredging locations.
Lowering the river bed level could have a considerable influence on salt intrusion in the delta and thus on
land use and faunal habitat displacement. High water levels and higher salinities in agricultural areas are
noted during tidal floods, therefore understanding the fresh versus salt water mixing process in the river
system is of high importance before dredging is taken into consideration.
Land use changes are notable in many of these low-lying areas. Agriculture changes to aquaculture and the
region that was well known for its rice production experiences switches in nature and extent of
employment. Moreover, the habitable area is gradually pushed more inland.
The floods also cause sanitary issues. A monthly inundated area often provokes illnesses as results of direct
exposure to the unhealthy surroundings. Furthermore, the overall water quality is far below the desired
level. Measures should be taken to improve many aspects of the initial sanitary circumstances.
When coping with floods, the community and individuals offer diverse ways of dealing with physical and
social problems. They show their vulnerability character when dealing with various disaster phenomena.
The structural and organizational possibilities of every barangay have to be researched, after which a new
plan can be proposed inside the scope of the vulnerability framework.
The idea is that new channel profiles and dikes can eventually be modelled and locations for
implementation of a primary defence system and (secondary) risk-based dike ring structures can be
designated. These final physical solutions in form of a sustainable delta defence system, combined with
flood resilient sanitary improvements can lead to considerable new social and economic opportunities for
the whole delta-populated community.
Buod
Ang dokumentong ito ay naglalaman ng deskripsyong kwalitatibo at kwantitatibo ng Delta ng Pampanga
kasama ng pagtukoy sa maaring mangyari tuwing babaha, at sa kung paanong paraan ito masususulusyonan.
Ito rin ay may layunin na maging alituntunin kung paano makakamit ang isang pangmatagalang kaunlaran sa
tulong ng integrated water management approach.
Dahil mula noong unang panahon, tubig ang isa sa mga problemang hinaharap ng Pilipinas. Sa mga
mabababang lugar, ang baha ay hindi na bago at kung minsan ay buwan-buwan ito kung mangyari, na
nagdudulot ng problemang pang sosyo-ekonomiko. Dahilan nito, nagsama-sama at nagtulong tulong ang
walong munisipalidad na nasa delta. Dito sa report na ito, makikita ang paglalarawan at pagpapaliwanag ng
inisyal na sitwasyon upang lalong maintindihan ang dahilan ng pagbaha.
Ang integrated water management approach ay isang paraan na naglalayon ng pagkakapantay pantay ng
lipunan , mahusay na ekonomiya at pagpapanatili ng kaunlarang pangkapaligiran.Upang maisakatuparan ito,
maraming aspeto ang kailangang pagsamasamahin, maraming pamimilian, at ang aming grupo ay
napagdesisyonan na pag-aralan ang delta sa pamamagitan ng direktang pagsuri dito, at sa pamamagitan ng
paggawa ng modelo ng daluyan ng tubig, bunga na rin ng mga panibagong datos na aming nakuha. Dahil sa
ilang mga limitasyon, naging limitado ang aming pag-iimbestiga sa mga pangunahing ilog at sa mga lugar
lamang na madaling makatuloy ang aming nasuri.
Ang fieldwork ay naglalaman ng mga interbyu sa mga taong direktang naapektuhan ng pagbaha, alat ng tubig
at pagsukat ng lalim ng tubig sa Ilog. Ang mga datos na ito ay ginamit para sa pagpapatunay ng gamit ng lupa,
ang paggawa ng modelo ng daluyan ng tubig at sa pagsasabi ng maaaring mangyari na magiging dulot ng
pagbaha ay ang pangunahing kontribusyon sa report na ito.
Sa pagharap sa ganitong problema, isang pangangailangan ay ang pagkakaroon ng koneksyon sa ibat ibang
tao na maaring maapektuhan, direkta man o hindi. Sila ay nahahati sa dalawa, ang pormal at impormal na
stakeholders, na mayroong magkaibang epekto sa mga proseso ng pagdedesisyon.
Ang mga datos mula sa mga lugar na nagrerekord ng patak ng ulan ay magagamit upang makapagtala ng
maaring runoff sa hinaharap. Ito naman ay pinalawak para sa siyudad ng Zaragosa upang mailarawan ang
mga posibilidad para sa pagkwantipika ng mga datos at upang mapagalaman kung gaano mapagkakatiwalaan
ang mga umiiral na lugar na nagsusukat ng nasabing datos. Ang kredibilidad ng mga umiiral na relasyon sa
pagitan ng runoff dulot ng patak ng ulan at ang pagtaas ng tubig ay naipaliwanag at ang mga modelo ng pagagos ng ilog ay naisagawa sa tulong ng software na SOBEK, base sa mga sukat ng dimesyon ng ilog, at mga
umiiral na tiyorya at pagpapalagay ukol sa pag-agos. Ang modelong ito-- na nagbibigay representasyon sa
ilang mahahalagang alituntunin sa pagbibigay prediksyon sa magiging tindi ng bahaay naikumpara sa mga
naunang kinakailangang flood maps. Base sa kwalitatibong pagsusuri sa runoff profiles, maingat na
konklusyon ang nagbigay ayon sa mga magiging dredging locations.
Ang pagbababa ng riverbed level ay mayroon ding impluwensya sa salt intrusion sa delta at pati na rin sa
gamit ng lupa at ang paglipat ng mga natural na tirahan ng mga hayop. Ang mataas na lebel at ang pag-alat
ng tubig sa mga lugar na pangagrikultura ay nakikita tuwing may baha, kung gayon ay nakikita ang
kahalagahan ng paghalo ng tubig tabang sa tubig alat bago ikonsidera ang dredging.
Ang pagbabago sa gamit ng lupa ay mapapansin sa karamihan ng mabababang lugar. Ang lupang pangagrikultural ay nagmistulang palaisdaan at ang mga lugar kung saan dati ay kilala sa pagtatanim ng palay ay
umunlad at natayuan ng mga establisyimentong pangkomersyo. Dahil dito, ang mga lugar na maaring tirahan
ay unti-unting napunta sa kalagitnaan ng mga ito.
Ang baha ay nagdudulot din ng mga isyung pangkalinisan. Ang mga lugar kung saan halos buwan-buwan
kung bumaha ay nagdudulot ng mga sakit dahilan ng pagkakalantad sa maduming kapaligiran. Isa pa, ang
pangkabuoang kalidad ng tubig ay masyadong mababa ayon sa tanggap na pamantayan. Marami pa ang
kailangang gawin upang mapabuti ang aspetong pangkalinisan.
Sa pagharap sa baha, ang komunidad at bawat indibidwal ay humahanap ng ibat ibang paraan para sa mga
problemang pisikal at sosyal. Ang mga mamamayan ay nagpapakita ng ibat ibang pamamaraan para
masolusyunan ang bawat sakuna. Ang mga posibilidad na struktural at organisasyonal ng bawat baranggay ay
metikolosong sinusuri, at pagkaraan ay panibagong plano ang maaring ipanukala sa loob ng naunang
balangkas.
Ang ideya na panibagong daluyan ng tubig at dike ang maaaring imodelo; at ang lokasyon para sa
implementasyon ng pangunahin at sekondaryang dikeng ipapalibot sa naturang lugar. Ito ang naisip naming
solusyon na nakadisenyo nang isang pangmatagalang delta defence system, kasama ng pagpapabuti sa
aspetong pangkalinisan ukol sa baha ay maaaring makagawa ng panibagong mga oportunidad na pangekonomiya at sosyal para sa mga lugar at mamamayan na nakatira sa delta.
List of Figures
Figure 1-1 - Project location................................................................................................................................ 2
Figure 2-1: Time span of research ...................................................................................................................... 6
Figure 4-1 - Measuring river profiles ................................................................................................................12
Figure 4-2 - Depth measuring sonar with GPS ..................................................................................................12
Figure 4-3 Lorrie and Ante determine the approximate flow profile with tape-measure-weight .................13
Figure 4-4 - Diver .............................................................................................................................................13
Figure 4-5 - Diver and depth measuring locations ............................................................................................14
Figure 4-6 - Example: sonar depth measurements of point S01 (Pampanga mouth) ....................................15
Figure 4-7 - Bridge 025, tape-measured depths on three different dates .....................................................15
Figure 4-8 Heavy siltation in Angat River .......................................................................................................18
Figure 4-9 - Unregulated river profile with old town roads (white) ..................................................................19
Figure 4-10 Depths around Calumpit .............................................................................................................20
Figure 4-11 - Schematized cross section ...........................................................................................................20
Figure 4-12 - Strong sedimentation at bifurcation in Calumpit (point C17) ..................................................21
Figure 4-13 Possible dike rings and primary defence system ........................................................................22
Figure 5-1: High elevation and buildings along Pampanga River ......................................................................25
Figure 5-2: Flooded areas (in blue) after design runoff event with peak discharge with return period of 5
years .................................................................................................................................................................26
Figure 5-3: Flood map Pampanga Delta after Typhoon Nari in 2013 with main streams and Calumpit ...........27
Figure 5-4: Small dike in Pampanga Delta around fish ponds ...........................................................................28
Figure 6-1: Locations of used rainfall stations in Pampanga River Basin ..........................................................32
Figure 6-2: Gumbel distributions Zaragoza with k=1d (upper left), k=2d (upper right), k=5d (lower left) and
k=10d (lower right) ...........................................................................................................................................35
Figure 6-3: Depth-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza.....................................................35
Figure 6-4: Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza.................................................36
Figure 6-5: Cumulative frequency curves rainfall station Zaragoza ..................................................................37
Figure 6-6: Depth-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza.....................................................38
Figure 6-7: Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza.................................................38
Figure 6-8 - Water height gauges .....................................................................................................................40
Figure 7-1 - Predicted salt intrusion curve in the Pampanga River ...................................................................43
Figure 7-2 - Tidal excursions (horizontal axis) and relative concentrations (vertical axis) in Hagonoy River ....44
Figure 7-3 Salt particle movement .................................................................................................................45
Figure 8-1: Legend of NDVI values in QGIS .......................................................................................................49
Figure 8-2: Land use map - NDVI, February 27, 1976 .......................................................................................50
Figure 8-3: Land use map - NDVI, January 25, 1989 .........................................................................................51
Figure 8-4: Land use map - NDVI, December 31, 2002 .....................................................................................52
Figure 8-5: Land use map - NDVI, May 27, 2013 ..............................................................................................53
Figure 8-6: Locations of land use interviews including waypoint numbers ......................................................54
Figure 9-1: Typical treatment steps used for drinking water treatment in Hagonoy ........................................61
Figure 9-2: Proposed treatment scheme for treatment of infiltrated groundwater .........................................63
Figure 9-3: Resource oriented sanitation by splitting urine and faeces ............................................................64
Figure 10-1: Effects of the system with pressures, thresholds, sensitivities and adaptabilities on the
vulnerability ......................................................................................................................................................65
Figure 10-2: The dikes on the side of the Pampanga estuary ...........................................................................68
Figure 10-3: The organisation of the Hagonoy MDRRMC as of September 2012. ............................................69
Figure 10-4: Evacuation centre in Calumpit in 2013. ........................................................................................70
Figure 13-1: Map of coastal municipalities in alliance ......................................................................................77
Figure 13-2: Flooding map Bulacan Province ....................................................................................................79
Figure 13-3: Tide curves for reference stations ................................................................................................81
Figure 13-4: Tidal ranges obtained from diver measurements .........................................................................83
Figure 13-5: Tidal influence on depth measuring interval ................................................................................85
Figure 13-6: Measurements in Pampana mouth and Sulipan ...........................................................................87
Figure 13-7: Depths Pampanga River ................................................................................................................89
Figure 13-8: Flow profile areas Pampanga River...............................................................................................89
Figure 13-9: Width variations Pampanga River .................................................................................................91
Figure 13-10: Depth measurements in Angat River ..........................................................................................93
Figure 13-11: Depths Angat River .....................................................................................................................95
Figure 13-12: Flow profile areas Angat River ....................................................................................................95
Figure 13-13: Depth measurements in Calumpit ..............................................................................................97
Figure 13-14: Depths Pampanga (Calumpit) .....................................................................................................99
Figure 13-15: Depths Calumpit South ...............................................................................................................99
Figure 13-16: Depths Calumpit North-East .......................................................................................................99
Figure 13-17: Depths Calumpit to Angat...........................................................................................................99
Figure 13-18: Depths Angat (Calumpit) ............................................................................................................99
Figure 13-19: Depths Hagonoy River (B022) ...................................................................................................101
Figure 13-22: Average depths River system....................................................................................................103
Figure 13-23: SOBEK 1D model on GIS layer ...................................................................................................105
Figure 13-24: DEM Pampanga River Basin with 1D model in the Pampanga Delta ........................................106
Figure 13-25: Legend SOBEK 2D model (units: [m]) ........................................................................................106
Figure 13-26: IDF curves Sapang Buho ...........................................................................................................107
Figure 13-27: IDF curves Zaragoza ..................................................................................................................107
Figure 13-28: IDF curves Papaya .....................................................................................................................108
Figure 13-29: IDF curves San Isidro .................................................................................................................108
Figure 13-30: IDF curves Arayat ......................................................................................................................109
Figure 13-31: IDF curves Candaba ..................................................................................................................109
Figure 13-32: IDF curves Sibul Spring..............................................................................................................110
Figure 13-33: IDF curves Sulipan.....................................................................................................................110
Figure 13-34: IDF curves Ipo Dam ...................................................................................................................111
Figure 13-35: IDF curves San Rafael ................................................................................................................111
Figure 13 36: IDF curves San Rafael Fish ponds in project area (only for Pampanga River Basin).....................115
List of Tables
Table 4-1 - Depth measurement locations .......................................................................................................14
Table 4-2 - Tidal wave characteristics ...............................................................................................................16
Table 4-3 Depth measurement accuracy See Figure 4-5 for locations ........................................................17
Table 6-1: Percentages of days of no data records in rainfall stations..............................................................32
Table 6-2: Annual maximum daily, 2-day, 5-day and 10-day rainfall amounts for rainfall station Zaragoza.....33
Table 6-3: Rank, probability of (non-) exceedance, return period and reduced variate for rainfall station
Zaragoza for daily precipitation amounts .........................................................................................................34
Table 6-4: Values DDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza ....................................................................................36
Table 6-5: Values IDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza ......................................................................................36
Table 6-6: Values DDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza ....................................................................................38
Table 6-7: Values IDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza ......................................................................................39
Table 8-1: Land use details obtained at field interview locations .....................................................................56
Table 9-1: Global Health Impacts of Flooding based on Ahern et Al. (2005). ..................................................57
Table 9-2: Ten Leading Causes of Morbidity in Bulacan Province (all ages) between 2004 and 2009
(rate/100,000persons). ....................................................................................................................................58
Table 9-3: Diseases in the evacuation centres of Hagonoy on 16-8-2012. .......................................................58
Table 9-4: Vaccines of the vaccination program ...............................................................................................59
Table 9-5: Measured concentrations of salinity, oxygen and pH in the tap water in Hagonoy.........................60
Table of Contents
1
Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1
Problem description............................................................................................................................ 1
1.2
Research goal ...................................................................................................................................... 3
1.3
Scope of work ..................................................................................................................................... 3
Approach of Research ...................................................................................................................... 5

2.1
Introduction ........................................................................................................................................ 5
2.2
Fieldwork and associated data assessment ........................................................................................ 5
2.3
Assessment of available data .............................................................................................................. 5
2.4
Modelling ............................................................................................................................................ 6
2.5
Time Schedule..................................................................................................................................... 6
Stakeholders .................................................................................................................................... 7
3.1
Formal stakeholders ........................................................................................................................... 7
3.2
Non-formal stakeholders .................................................................................................................... 8
River Profile Measurements .......................................................................................................... 11

4.1
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 11
4.2
Input Data Depth Measurements .................................................................................................. 11
4.3
Measuring Methods.......................................................................................................................... 12
4.4
Locations ........................................................................................................................................... 14
4.5
Output River Profiles ...................................................................................................................... 15
4.6
Reliability of measurements and their corrections ........................................................................... 17
4.7
Qualitative description of bottlenecks and guidelines ...................................................................... 18
4.8
Recommendations, future activities and use of data ....................................................................... 20
Hydrodynamic modelling ............................................................................................................... 23

5.1
Introduction software ....................................................................................................................... 23
5.2
Model components........................................................................................................................... 23
5.3
Model results and discussion ............................................................................................................ 24
5.4
Preliminary validation ....................................................................................................................... 26
5.5
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................ 27
5.6
Model improvement recommendations ........................................................................................... 27
Advanced Model Input .................................................................................................................. 31

6.1
Rainfall analysis ................................................................................................................................. 31
6.2
River Runoff ...................................................................................................................................... 39
Salt Intrusion .................................................................................................................................. 41

7.1
Introduction ...................................................................................................................................... 41
7.2
Parameters ....................................................................................................................................... 41
7.3
Tidal dynamics .................................................................................................................................. 42
7.4
Intrusion curve .................................................................................................................................. 43
7.5
Salt measurements in Hagonoy ........................................................................................................ 44
7.6
Recommendations ............................................................................................................................ 45
Land Use Changes .......................................................................................................................... 47

8.1
Problem description.......................................................................................................................... 47
8.2
Introduction research plan ............................................................................................................... 47
8.3
Data availability, preconditions and constraints ............................................................................... 48
8.4
Data processing ................................................................................................................................ 49
8.5
Results .............................................................................................................................................. 50
8.6
Validation of land use ....................................................................................................................... 54
Flood Resilient Sanitation .............................................................................................................. 57

9.1
Current situation ............................................................................................................................... 57
9.2
Improving the sanitary conditions .................................................................................................... 62
10 The Framework for Vulnerability ................................................................................................... 65

10.1
What is vulnerability? ....................................................................................................................... 65
10.2
Theory of the vulnerability framework ............................................................................................. 66
10.3
Capacities in the Manila Bay Delta .................................................................................................... 67
10.4
Conclusions and recommendations .................................................................................................. 71
11 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 73
12 References ..................................................................................................................................... 75
13 Appendices .................................................................................................................................... 77
1 Introduction
1.1 Problem description
1.1.1 Background
The Philippines is a country in South East Asia, consisting of thousands of islands and being encircled by the
beautiful, yet often notorious Pacific. As subject to diverse natural influences, it had to suffer incessant
welfare catastrophes through history. Many of these occurrences involved water related problems,
whether in form of abundance or scarcity.
1.1.2 Nature and extent of the problem
The main problems which relate to water and disaster management and which cause socio-economic
disruptions in the Pampanga Delta are tidal and fluvial floods around the rivers Pampanga and Angat. Major
low-lying areas are frequently inundated because of combinations of numerous aspects.
1.1.3 Problem cause
The water related problems have several causes. Many are - directly or indirectly - the result of floods,
which are generally caused by two phenomena. Firstly, one can mention the flooding related to the
periodic tidal incursion, where the water comes from the river mouths. Secondly, one can relate the floods
to heavy rain events, leading to high discharge peaks and extreme water levels. In the latter case the water
comes from upstream and takes place less often than flooding due to the periodic tidal incursion, but its
effects could be more dramatic. In addition, the country regularly deals with high storm surges of typhoons
coming from the Pacific Ocean. The combinations of these three phenomena are causing problems to a
much larger extent.
The flooding problem is not new for the area. Since olden times there are problems in this delta from these
two major rivers. The upstream drainage system has dramatically changed due to land development for
agricultural use and human settlement resulting in short flood concentration times, higher peak discharges
and reduced flood carrying capacity of rivers because of considerable siltation. Another thing that has
contributed to the worsening of the river conditions is the discharge of volcanic substances to Manila Bay
due to the relatively recent eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the year 1991.
1.1.4 Climate conditions
In the Philippines a tropical and maritime climate prevails. Generally, temperatures are high, just like the
humidity and the amount of rainfall averaged over the year. However, rainfall is not equally split over the
year. From June to November it is rainy season, bringing most of the annual rainfall. From December to
May it is dry season. This dry season could be subdivided in a (relatively) cool dry season from December
till February and a hot dry season from March until May. Thus, it can be stated that extreme pluvial
flooding is bound to seasonal conditions.
1.1.5 What has been done already?
No definitive solutions against this influencing factor are implemented yet. Only temporal measures are
applied and continuously adapted according to the demands of the population, which is convicted to
almost individual, small-scale, self-sufficient based solutions. Examples of such measures are self-made
dikes and newly elevated roads. It may be clear that measures like these do not solve the problem, but
rather shift it.
There are already some final solutions from previous proposals implemented to prevent upstream flooding
in the area. In 1989, the Pampanga River Flood Control System was implemented. The construction of two
dikes which is the first phase of the Pampanga Delta Development Project was a big step in protecting the
Pampanga Delta from upstream floods. However, due to budget constraints and disagreements from
several households only 14.2 [km] (right bank) and 13.2 [km] (left bank) from the intended 22.7 [km] were
built. It improved the situation regarding flooding at certain locations (mainly close to the location of the
dike). However, this final solution did not have any positive effect on most of the people in the entire area.
Fact is that the flood control system remains incomplete and that the area is still vulnerable to upstream
floods1.
1.1.6 Action
In the year 2009, an alliance with eight neighbouring coastal municipalities (see Figure 1-1 and [13]) north
of Manila Bay (Luzon Island) was implemented. The goal of the alliance was to find out how the
representatives of these areas could collaborate on developing plans in order to prevent floods and fight
water pollution in their municipalities. The scope of this alliance is thus on water management and disaster
management for a better welfare and wellbeing in the eight municipalities. This multidisciplinary and
integrated water management approached research on the flood prone areas in the Pampanga Delta is the
first result of this alliance.
Figure 1-1 - Project location (Map data: Google, 2014)
To solve the problems related to flooding due to the two mentioned types of flooding, new physical system
construction works are inevitable to keep this area a suitable place to live. Before one can design a new
system of physical constructions, more insight in the direct and indirect water related problems and system
properties in this area are necessary.
Philippine Statistics Authority National Statistical Coordination Board; (June, 2013)
1.2 Research goal

Design of a new system of physical constructions is inevitable to keep this delta a suitable place to live by
preserving it as a legacy for the next generations of the eight municipalities. New physical solutions - like
hydraulic structures - can only be designed if the system properties are known and water related problems
are assessed in a quantitative way. An extensive virtual reality model taking into account all the system
properties, boundary conditions and vulnerable areas is necessary before statements can be made about
the design of new protective interventions. The aim of this multidisciplinary project is to quantify the direct
and indirect water related problems, system properties, boundary conditions and vulnerability of areas in
the eight coastal municipalities from the alliance and visualize it with a start-up delta simulation. The result
is a guideline for the proposal of possible physical solutions in this coastal region.
1.3 Scope of work

Initially, the goal of the project was to research the water related problems in all eight coastal
municipalities. Due to the tight time schedule and considerable financial restrictions, it was not possible to
do the same study for all eight municipalities. The spatial scope of this research is therefore mainly focused
on the municipalities of Hagonoy, Paombong and Calumpit, and (less in detail) also on Obando, Bulacan,
Malolos, Macabebe and Masantol. The detailed research principles would be exactly the same for the latter
regions.
The substantive scope of the project is mainly focused at the specializations of the four group members.
The topics that are discussed in this report will deal with hydrology, water resources management, overall
hydraulic engineering and sanitary engineering. Topics in these research fields will be discussed and
interrelated in the report.
The temporal scope of this research is focused on two timescales. On one side the focus is on the time
range in which the measurements are performed. These findings say something about the state of the
system at that time. On the other side, interviews were performed and historical measurements were
requested which focus on a larger timescale, namely that for which memories of the oldest interviewed
people still exist and a timescale for which historical data is still available. These two longer time scales
seem to match. For both data is available from the 1970s.
One has to take into account that this research is part of a more extensive research with the aim of solving
the flood related problems in the delta of the Pampanga catchment and surroundings. This research will
not come up with final designs, however some (temporal) solutions are proposed for several consequences
of the flooding problem. This report is moreover presented as a guideline for solving the inconvenient
flooding problem and its omnifarious aftermaths.
2 Approach of Research
2.1 Introduction
This chapter describes the research approach, which used as a guided the team through the project. The
research can generally be split up in three different phases, all essential in order to obtain adequate
results. In each research phase the materials and methods are briefly explained. Afterwards, a time
schedule of the research is given.
2.2 Fieldwork and associated data assessment

The fieldwork for this research took place in the study area for a period lasting from November 25, 2013
until January 20, 2014. In this time, the project group was based in the municipalities of Malolos and
Hagonoy, which are located in the project region. In this research step the project group was totally
dependent on the brought materials and resources available in the Philippines.
2.2.1 Water quality measurements
Water quality measurements are performed for a broad spectrum of topics in this research. Conductivity
and temperature measurements are done in the Hagonoy River and at several other locations in order to
make statements about salt intrusion in the Pampanga Delta. Furthermore, these measurements along
with O2 and pH tests are done for potential drinking water quality analysis and statements about flood
resilient sanitation in the project area.
2.2.2 Water depth measurements
River profile measurements are done in order to make statements about the quantitative properties of the
Pampanga Delta main drainage system. These highly detailed cross section overviews of main rivers give us
the opportunity to analyze the exact flow profiles over the whole river length. The obtained data is also
used as preliminary model input and could also be used for more advanced models. Depth measurements
for relatively small rivers are performed from local bridges with weighted measuring tapes, while larger
rivers are measured by a sonar device designed for measurements from the water surface. A local boat is
used for maneuvering on the water. Furthermore, logging divers are placed on several fixed locations in the
Pampanga Delta to determine the tidal behavior, which is used for water depth corrections due to tidal
influences from Manila Bay. For all the depth measurements, a GPS device is used for marking of the exact
location and measurement time.
2.2.3 Interviews
Field interviews form an essential part of the research. Problems are best indicated by asking people
directly about their experiences with a relevant topic. Houses spread over the project area are visited to
interview their inhabitants about their experiences with floods and associated sanitary conditions. Besides
this, farmers and people living on the countryside are asked about their experiences with land use and
eventual land use change due to floods and salt intrusion in the area. Furthermore, the former mayor of
the municipality of Hagonoy is interviewed about his views on the problems in the project area. The
stakeholder analysis is partly based on the results of field interviews.
2.3 Assessment of available data

During the time in the Philippines, data from several local institutes is obtained to use in diverse analyses.
Furthermore, data from online databases and results of previous reports and other literature are used in
the overall investigation. This research phase started in September 2013 and lasted until March 2014.
2.3.1 Data acquisition from local institutes and analysis

Information from local institutes is incorporated in the research to get specific data measured by local
specialists about the effects of flood susceptibility on sanitation. Furthermore, rainfall data and rainfallrunoff relations, useful for hydrological analysis, are obtained from local institutes. GIS data (shape files) is
also obtained from local institutes and the internet. These files are used in this report.
2.3.2 Data acquisition from online databases and analysis
Data from online databases is used for optical visualization of the effects of the flooding problem in time.
By using free satellite data, land use change patterns in this delta are investigated. Satellite data is also
used for preliminary hydrodynamic modelling and its output validation. Online elevation maps form
essential 2D input in the model.
2.3.3 Data analysis from previous reports and other literature
Nearly all research steps required input from available (scientific) literature and previous reports. See the
reference list for all used literature sources and reports.
2.4 Modelling
One of the last parts performed in this research is the hydrodynamic modelling, which is essential for
visualizing and eventually solving of the flooding problem in the near future. After sufficient data analysis is
done and enough measurements are performed to create model input, a preliminary hydrodynamic model
is made and validated with flood maps of the project area. The modelling software package SOBEK is used
for this research phase, which took place at the end of March, 2014.
2.5 Time Schedule

The time span of this research is shown in Figure 2-1. Since the three research phases show a lot of overlap
and do not exactly match every research topic, a more general time schedule of research steps is shown,
including the time planned for elaborating.
Time span of research

Date (Month-Year)
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
Project Phases
Pre-research phase
Fieldwork phase
Data analysis phase
Modeling phase
Reporting phase
Figure 2-1: Time span of research
3 Stakeholders
This chapter gives a quick overview of the stakeholders, which have to be taken into account for this
multidisciplinary research. One can split the subject in formal and non-formal stakeholders. The analysis is
mainly based on information from literature and interviews conducted in the field.
3.1 Formal stakeholders

Formal stakeholders are stakeholders with a certain formal position in the political system of a country.
They are part of several administrative regions from the Philippines and they have responsibilities. Before
the governmental stakeholders and their responsibilities are described in more detail, the political system
in the Philippines will be shortly explained to clarify the relations between different stakeholders and to
give a clear overview.
2 3
The Philippines is divided in seventeen regions. Most of these regions do not possess a separate local
government. This means that they do not have political power and that mainly an administrative function
can be fulfilled. The name of the region of this project area is Central Luzon. Regions are generally divided
into provinces or in cities independent from a province. The project area lies in two provinces, Pampanga
and Bulacan, which are governed by a governor and a council. A province consists of several municipalities
or component cities. Two of the municipalities of the project area are located in the Pampanga province
and six in Bulacan province. The municipality is governed by a mayor and a council. The mayor could be
elected for a three-year period and cannot be elected for more than three successive terms. The smallest
administrative division in the Philippines is the barangay. Barangays are governed by a head with a
barangay council. An overview of the municipalities in the project area is given in [13].
3.1.1 Pampanga River Basin Flood Forecasting Warning Center (PRFFWC or PRBFFWC)
This is an office center of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration
(PAGASA) of the Department of Science & Technology (DOST). Their task is to monitor the hydrological
situation, forecast and provide flood warnings to the flood prone areas within the Pampanga and Guagua
river basin systems. Their focus is on flooding events due to overflowing of rivers. They also maintain and
operate several rainfall and river gauging stations in the two river basin systems.
3.1.2 Bulacan Provincial Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (PDRRMC)
This PDRRMC, which is an office in the Provincial Government of Bulacan and is guided by PRFFWC,
maintains and operates a network of rainfall, river and flood stage observation stations within the province
of Bulacan as part of its flood disaster mitigation and management program (CBFMMP). In this program,
data is communicated on a local scale between monitoring stations of hydrological parameters, municipal/
barangay disaster action teams and the operations center (Provincial Capitol and PRFFWC).
3.1.3 The alliance of eight coastal municipalities:
All the eight municipalities (Macabebe and Masantol (Pampanga); Bulacan, Calumpit, Hagonoy, Malolos,
Obando and Paombong (Bulacan)) in this alliance have their own disaster council responsible for their own
municipality or there are more disaster councils per municipality, the so called barangay disaster councils.
Every municipality has its own coping plans during floods, because they have many experience how to deal
with disasters. The mayors of the municipalities are formally responsible during floods, however the main
2
3
PRFFWC (2013)
National Statistical Coordination Board; (June, 2013)
work is done by municipal engineers or planners. The municipalities mainly see coping with floods as their
task. Protecting the area and recovering the area after a flood is not considered as their task, because they
do not have money for area recovery and short political time span makes it difficult to implement area
protecting plans.
The alliance of eight coastal municipalities is established to make the issue of flood prevention and water
pollution a common issue, to avoid the problem of implementing protection plans because of the political
situation that changes every year. The municipal engineers and planners are involved in the alliance. Mr.
Cruz, former mayor of Hagonoy, is the initiator of this alliance.
3.1.4 Water companies
Water companies are responsible for the water supply. They supply water mainly within the municipal
borders. The water supply is highly dependent on the water quality and quantity. Therefore, the water
companies also focus on the sanitation and wastewater disposal.
3.2 Non-formal stakeholders

Non-formal stakeholders are stakeholders without formal political influence and responsibilities in the
political system of a country. This does not mean than the lack of formal political influence automatically
indicates that these stakeholders have no influence at all. Non-formal stakeholders can influence a process
in a positive or negative way, and varies according to their relative power and interest.
3.2.1 Farmers
Farmers are mainly located in the northern areas of the eight municipalities. In this area the water used for
irrigation has a relatively low salinity to allow agriculture. The main crop cultivated in this area is rice, which
is relatively labour-intensive to grow. Rice farmers are often small land owners or they are tenants of larger
land owners who rent to land to more rice farmers.
Rice farming often deals with problems here. Frequent river floods often destroy crop yields meaning that
the income of the rice farmer fluctuates due to this. Another problem is that the harvests of rice fields
often decrease due to increase of salinity in irrigation water over the years. Yields often get so low that
growing rice is not economical any more. Because of this, rice fields disappear and labourers on the
paddies can become unemployed.
3.2.2 Fishermen
In the south of the coastal municipalities, most of the fishermen are living. Sometimes they live on small
islands close to Manila Bay, sometimes they live on the mainland close to the rivers. They often go out on
Manila Bay to catch fish or visit their traps to empty them. Other important fishing grounds for these
fishermen are Pampanga River, Labangan Channel and Hagonoy San Juan River.
The yields are often dried and prepared for sale in the barangays of the fishermen. The fish are generally
used for own consumption, sold on local markets or prepared for export out of the municipalities of the
fishermen. Floods can influence the income of the fishermen because they cant go out on the water
during the flood and sometimes fishing material like nets and traps are destroyed during these events.
3.2.3 Fish pond owners
Another group of stakeholders responsible for fish yields are the fish pond owners. Mainly in the south of
the coastal municipalities, large areas are filled with (embanked) fish ponds. Small dikes or nets around
open water areas create fish ponds where fish is grown. Types of fish grown in these fish ponds are for
example: milk fish (bangus), tilapia, prawns and crabs. Large areas of fish ponds are sometimes generally
owned by a few land owners, making these fish pond owners quite influential stakeholders.
Problems occur during floods if the embankments are overtopped by the water so the fish could swim
away or if the nets around the fish ponds are destroyed. Another problem related to the fish pond owners
is the water pollution because of the feeding of the fish. Rice paddies that are not economical any more are
often converted to fish ponds, increasing the proportion of fish ponds in the region and thus the presence
of this group of stakeholders over the years.
3.2.4 Other Inhabitants
Next to farmers and fishermen, one has to take into account the importance of other inhabitants in the
area. Problems regarding to flooding are often related to inundation of houses and other personal
belongings. There is a great variety in life standard in this area, with a striking fact that the more developed
households are located in the north of the area, relatively far from Manila Bay. If one takes a look at the
professions of these people it is clear that many people do work on the rice paddies or do work as tricycle
driver. People working on rice paddies sometimes get unemployed because of the fact that the yields of
the rice paddies decreases leading to a decrease in employment.
3.2.5 Industry and other commerce
(Rice) agriculture and fish trade are the main economic forces in the eight municipalities, however there is
also other industry and commerce present in the area. Especially in the north of the area (around Malolos)
there is some industry and there are also larger shopping areas here. In the south (around Paombong and
Hagonoy), small barangay shops are more common.
10
4 River Profile Measurements

4.1 Introduction
Due to the frequent water flow towards the cities, the population of the Pampanga Delta takes action in
order to protect their families, belongings and land. The almost yearly occurring phenomena of extreme
river discharges combined with tidal influence and a strong storm surge in Manila Bay cause social
catastrophes and disrupt a huge part of the already instable economic system. In addition, the downstream
areas are even highly susceptible to the stand-alone monthly tidal influence, which standardly causes a
considerable amount of flood days per month.
The problem is flooding, although it could rather be seen as a logical natural consequence of not
maintaining the delta. The real complexity lies inside the fact that there is little understanding of the flow
systems and that the local experts do not have the required equipment to investigate the exact nature of
the problem.
If this would only be a political issue, the population would have already taken matters into their own
hands. What the people need is a revolutionary water management approach in order to cope with the
flooding in the delta. This does not mean holding the water outside of the populated area, for this is almost
impossible in this case. It means living with the water. Therefore detailed technical data is required.
Based on studies and various reports, it can be concluded that the channel and river discharge capacities
are far below required. The part upstream of Masantol can hardly cope with a five year return period of
upstream flooding4. Changes in land use cause disruptions in the channel system and therefore changes in
riverine sediment balances. There is a clear difference in river depths upstream and downstream of the
side channels, likely due to these adaptations. The Angat and the Pampanga, as well as the smaller rivers,
are full of unmaintained profiles and not navigable during some periods.
Relocation of inhabitants or making room for the river in vertical direction may be the only possible
solutions. The latter solution has to be elaborated in order to increase the discharge capacity, because the
first option seems radical and expensive. Some may even designate relocation as something ethically
inappropriate and disrespectful towards their predecessors - therefore unacceptable -.
4.2 Input Data Depth Measurements

The choice for depth measurements in and around the Pampanga and Angat can be explained by the high
significance of system understanding in the delta. A description of the whole channel system can make us
visualize the flowing pattern now and possible scenarios in the future with 1D/2D models (e.g. SOBEK5).
Eventually, this can give the possibility to gradually look for solutions, based on existing adaptation
measures and civil structures all over the world. Looking at the flood maps a conclusion can be made of
which river profiles maintain a sufficient and safe discharge for the inhabitants to keep dry feet, and which
sections have to be adapted. Therefore quantitative and qualitative descriptions are essential in this
solution process, in order to define the bottlenecks that cause large river morphological disruptions.
4
5
Japan International Cooperation Agency (2011)

Deltares (2013)
11
4.3 Measuring Methods

The cross sections of the rivers/canals (see Figure 4-1) are measured by boat with sonar (see Figure 4-2) or
from bridges with a tape-measure (see Figure 4-3). In the larger rivers it was inevitable to use a boat for the
bank-to-bank measurements. Because of the lateral flow and the boat movements, these measurements
are corrected later on and a straight line is assumed. At the mouth of the Pampanga River and further
upstream at Sulipan divers (see Figure 4-4) are placed for approximately two weeks to measure pressure
variations at the two locations. These pressure differences, which are translated to water heights, are used
to correct for absolute depth measurements.
Figure 4-1 - Measuring river profiles (Images/maps: Google, DigitalGlobe, Europa Technologies, 2014)
Figure 4-2 - Depth measuring sonar with GPS
Google Earth
12
Figure 4-3 Lorrie and Ante determine the approximate flow profile with tape-measure-weight
The plan was also to get tidal data from a diver at the Angat River mouth, but unfortunately the device
went missing. Without measuring the tidal influence, an approximation of the depth variation can still be
made, looking at the tidal wave in the Pampanga. The wave will pass the Angat mouth first and by
approximating the wave celerity, some new assumptions can be made of what can happen further
upstream. Due to the significant uncertainty of these assumptions, the tidal influence in the AngatLabangan has not been elaborated further on. The same counts for the rather complex system around
Calumpit.
Figure 4-4 - Diver
Alliance for coastal technologies (2013)
13
4.4 Locations
The profiles of the main river courses which are responsible for the largest discharges have to be defined.
These measurement locations are indicated in Figure 4-5 and Table 4-3. Locations S30 (Pampanga) and
A28 (Angat) are the last points in the series, respectively because of enough data and navigational
restrictions. In the rivers Hagonoy and Paombong the improvising method is used in order to approximate
the depths of the branches. Again, sub-branches of the two latter rivers can be assumed to have somewhat
lower water levels. These primarily use as storage, though it can have significant importance in the overall
sediment balance of this delta. The choice not to measure these is primarily due to the lack of time and
financial means.
Figure 4-5 - Diver and depth measuring locations (Images/maps: Google, Terrametrics, 2014)
Table 4-1 - Depth measurement locations (see Figure 4-5)
River/Channel
Pampanga
Pampanga west-branch
Angat/Labangan
Calumpit
Hagonoy
Paombong
8
Locational abbreviation
S
W
A
C
022;023;025
(Not indicated on map)
Google Earth
14
4.5 Output River Profiles

4.5.1 Assumptions
Some assumptions have been made for the reality check and further development of potential models.
-
Tide: M2+S2 diver measurements (see [Appendix 4 ]) and checked with previously available data
(see [Appendix 3 ]);
Discharge: 250 [m3/s] calculated and checked with yearly average discharge9;
Banks heights: Hagonoy, Paombong and Calumpit 0.5-1.5 [m]; Pampanga and Angat 2-4 [m].
4.5.2 Technical elaboration

The collected data has been corrected and visualized in Excel (see Figure 4-6 and Figure 4-7) and is
available on request. Here, it was very important to correct the absolute depths for the tide in order to get
the absolute maximum and minimum values at the two diver measuring points. Everything in between can
be corrected (see [Appendix 5 ]). In [Appendix 6 ] different elements of the profiles, such as maximum
depths, average depths, cross sections and width variations are elaborated.
Figure 4-6 - Example: sonar depth measurements of point S01 (Pampanga mouth)
Figure 4-7 - Bridge 025, tape-measured depths on three different dates
15
4.5.3 Correction for tidal influences

In the points below, the depth correction for two locations is explained at a certain stable discharge for a
14-day measuring period.
-
Sulipan:
Absolute range 0.2 1.45 [m] range = 1.25 [m]
Depth with depth measuring device on T: - 9.4 [m] ~ 0.777 [m] with diver
Maximum depth: 1.45-0.777=0.673 0.673+9.4=10.073 [m]
Minimum depth: 0.777-0.2=0.577 9.4-0.577=8.823=8.82 [m]
Pampanga mouth:
Absolute range -0.2 1.05 [m] range = 1.25 [m]
Depth with depth measuring device on T: - 5.9 [m] ~ 0.2 [m] with diver
Maximum depth: 1.05-0.2=0.85 0.85+5.9=6.75 [m]
Minimum depth: 0.2-(-0.2)=0.4 5.9-0.4=5.5 [m]
The tidal influences based on diver measurements indicate that in both points there is an approximate tidal
range of 1.25 [m]. This tidal range comes as a result of the amplification of a semi-diurnal tidal
characteristic (M2+S2) and comes once in every two weeks.
4.5.4 Average river depth
According to the divers the travel time of the tidal wave is approximately one hour and four minutes of the
passing wave tops, measured from the mouth of the Pampanga to Sulipan. The distance is approximately
24 [km], so the wave travels with 24/1.066=22.5 [km/h]=6.25 [m/s]. With c=(gh), this wave celerity gives
an approximate average river/canal height of 4.0 [m]. With [Appendix 7 ], which gives an indicative and
approximate average depth of 4.3 [m] (uncorrected depth, after the tidal wave), the average depth of
the measured path can be represented relatively accurate by a value of 4.0 [m] (see Table 4-2).
Table 4-2 - Tidal wave characteristics
Characteristics
Value
Unit
1.07
[h]
24
[km]
Wave celerity:
22.5
[km/h]
Wave celerity:
6.25
[m/s]
Average depth:
3.98
[m]
Time difference for tidal wave tops:

Distance divers:
4.5.5 River width variation

Based on the predominantly exponential width variation of the river (see [0]), it can be stated that in
average the Pampanga has a convergence length of approximately 50-60 [km].
16
4.6 Reliability of measurements and their corrections

4.6.1 Sonar
The sonar accuracy lies in a range of a couple of centimetres, so in most cases this is at least 95%.
4.6.2 Tape-measure
The choice for the tape-measure was an improvisational method, during the important salinity
measurements from bridges. It primarily gave an insight of the approximate river/channel depths of the
main branches. As can be seen in [Appendix 13 ], the depths vary between 1.0 and 2.25 [m].
4.6.3 Width measurements
The width measurements are performed with Google Earth. Here, an accuracy of 90-95% is assumed,
which is close enough to qualitatively describe the character of the width variation further upstream.
4.6.4 Technical reliability check
When including the tidal influence, the average depths do not change a lot. The fluctuation of these is 0.2
[m] at max. (see [Appendix 7 ]), as measured during this time interval at the assumed approximate
discharge. The tidal influence, in form of a maximum fluctuation, was predominantly unamplified semidiurnal and it did not rise above a 0.4 [m] difference during the measuring interval. Based on the fact that
the measuring device has a relatively low inaccuracy, it can be stated that the average depth
measurements have a reliability of at least 89%. The reliability of the maximum depths is approximately
98% (see Excel-file of depth measurements).
The measurements in the Pampanga were taken during one of the lowest water levels and it can be
concluded that the depths close to the mouth are expected to be higher by 1.0 [m], because they were
measured just before the tidal wave came in. This can also be seen in the corrected values of depth
measurements in the Pampanga River mouth and the Angat.
Checking with backwater curves is too limited here, because of variations in profile, roughness and slope,
although a reasonable assumption has been made for the average discharge of the Pampanga in the
measuring period. This has been calculated 250 [m3/s] and compared to other available data10, assuming
a 4.0 [m] average depth (see [Appendix 7 ]).
River/Channel
Abbreviation
Measurement type
Accuracy
Pampanga
Sonar
High
Pampanga west-branch W
Sonar
High
Angat/Labangan
Sonar
High
Calumpit
Sonar
Average to High
Hagonoy
022;023;025
Tape-measure-weight (+sonar) Low to Average
Paombong
(Not indicated) Tape-measure-weight
Low
Table 4-3 Depth measurement accuracy See Figure 4-5 for locations
10
17
4.7 Qualitative description of bottlenecks and guidelines

Besides the low-lying poorly protected areas and the numerous available areal descriptions, alongside with
hazard maps, there are still visibly notable obstacles in the rivers. Fish ponds and even complete
neighbourhoods develop on the banks of the rivers, where one sees siltation as a new housing opportunity.
Little do these citizens probably know, that this is one of the main reasons of upstream flooding: the river
has no room.
4.7.1 Plaridel, Pulilan and Malolos
The river Angat is an infamous example of this fact. Looking at the depths and areas further upstream (see
[0] the wet cross sections decrease dramatically and almost linearly, to even less than the half cross section
of the Pampanga. Although having a much lower discharge than the Pampanga, in case of a new bypass
this would be a new bottleneck. Further upstream at point A28 (see Figure 4-5), with coordinates
[120.855785, 14.892654], the water level was too low even to navigate. Also based on Google Earth,
the careful yet very realistic conclusion can be drawn here that there is heavy siltation further upstream of
Plaridel (see Figure 4-8) and that room has to be made for the river, vertically (by dredging) and if
possible also horizontally (by removing obstacles).
Figure 4-8 Heavy siltation in Angat River (Images/maps: Google, 2013, DigitalGlobe, 2014)
18
4.7.2 Hagonoy and Paombong

Also remarkable are the densely populated inner bends, in this case in Hagonoy. It seems that the main
road has been built alongside the Hagonoy River centuries ago. As it continued meandering around the
city, erosion of the outer bend and sedimentation of the inner bend took place as a result of the secondary
flows. The deposits in the inner bend turned out to be an opportunity for the inhabitants, for building more
and more towards the river. Also, the outer bend has to erode and the houses there disappear or continue
to be built on piles. Most of the time, the latter is the case. The result is that the river loses its natural flow
profile and during high river discharge, the floods become more severe at these narrow places (see Figure
4-9).
Figure 4-9 - Unregulated river profile with old town roads (white) (Images/maps: Google, DigitalGlobe, EuropaTechnologies, 2014)
Due to strong tidal influence and the mentioned flood combinations it seems highly improbable that these
cities will deal soon with the monthly occurring tidal floods. Unregulated groundwater extraction makes
the ground level decline, which makes the tidal floods deeper and more severe. The expectations are that
this will worsen 11 12.
Some would say that the citizens are forced to move, but there is no concrete proof that they already
started relocating. Besides, in most cases the relatively poor population has no other place to go. Structural
governmental policy on relocation and social housing, potentially supported by international funds could
be an option in the near future. However, in order to keep these cities alive, concrete structural plans have
to be proposed to offer a physical solution in form of a primary defence system, regulated with sluices and
combined with a fully risk-based backup dike ring system against fluvial flooding (see Figure 4-13). One of
the results of this is that the rivers are canalized and that the land use will change significantly.
11
12
Feasibility Report on the Pampanga Delta Development Project, Main Text, February 1982
19
4.7.3 Calumpit and the main Pampanga-Angat connection

The average channel depth around Calumpit is approximately 1.7 [m] (see Figure 4-10). This is considerably
lower than the average water level in the Pampanga, but because this is not the main discharge channel,
the value for the depths is considered to be a relatively correct assumption of average measurements. Still,
this city has to deal with tidal and upstream flooding. Dredging for a sufficient discharge and storage seems
inevitable. Furthermore, a similar dike ring system as suggested for Hagonoy and Paombong could be
placed.
The connection channel between the rivers Angat and Pampanga is around 3.3 [m] deep and a factor 1.5 [-]
wider than the channel around Calumpit. This also seems not enough for a sufficient discharge, because on
the flooding map (see [Appendix 2 ]) whole areas around Calumpit and even to the south of the connection
channel are flooded.
Unfortunately, this image is not publicly available. For more information on these
data, please send an email to manilabaydeltachallenge@gmail.com
13
Figure 4-10 Depths around Calumpit (Images/maps: Google, Aerometrex, Cnes/Spot Image, DigitalGlobe, Landsat, 2014)
4.8 Recommendations, future activities and use of data

It is clear that the channels cannot cope with some extreme scenarios and that the areas have to be
protected. The modelling of these channels has to be done with a highly detailed Digital Elevation Model
(DEM), because small changes in this area can have large consequences on the flood model. This map has
to be imported in a programme like SOBEK 1D/2D if we want to predict the flow patterns. Therefore
sections of certain river ranges have to be modelled like Figure 4-11. Small adaptations to channel depths
and dikes/dike rings can already lead to the desired effect of a considerably reduced flood risk.
Figure 4-11 - Schematized cross section
With this approach, the clear obstacles like in Figure 4-12 can be removed in order to give more room to
the river for a safe discharge and possibilities for transport over water. New economic opportunities can be
created this way.
13
QGIS (2014)
20
Figure 4-12 - Strong sedimentation at bifurcation in Calumpit (point C17)
21
14
Figure 4-13 Possible dike rings and primary defence system (Images/maps: Google, TerraMetrics, 2014)
Eventually the required river or channel depths for the given discharges can be maintained or made.
Furthermore, the cities and villages have to be protected against flooding, for it is inevitable for the people
to leave these areas if nothing is done in the surrounding areas. Good education on environmental
sustainability, a highly maintained environmental policy and a high protection level of the areas can make
these cities new economic centres of the delta and most probably teaching material for other regions in
the Philippines or other countries with similar problems. If the recommendations are carefully technically
elaborated, this delta has the opportunity to grow out to a tropical reflection of the Netherlands.
14
QGIS (2014)
22
5 Hydrodynamic modelling
This chapter will give a first overview of a hydraulic model, created for the Pampanga Delta. The purpose of
this model is to give a first impression of the effects of high river discharges in the Pampanga River Basin.
After a short introduction of the hydrodynamic modelling software used for this model, SOBEK 1D2D, the
model components and the model itself will be described. Some preliminary results are shown and
compared with flooding areas, which are obtained from remotely sensed images. Since this model will be a
preliminary indication, the results should not be taken for granted. This model is meant to give the reader a
first overview of computer model possibilities and shows the importance of proper data for hydrodynamic
modelling. After the results, discussions and a conclusion follow in order to answer the following question:
Why is better physical data essential for this area?
5.1 Introduction software

The modelling software used in this research is called SOBEK. This software, created by the company
Deltares from the Netherlands, is a powerful modelling tool for flood forecasting, optimization of drainage
systems and many other hydraulic matters15. The software makes it possible to calculate water flows in a
one-dimensional (1D) network and in a two-dimensional (2D) grid. The model is based on the Saint-Venant
Equations. This way, the software can calculate water levels, discharges and water storage in 1D channels,
as well as flow and water levels on 2D grids. Both, the 1D and 2D flow module are used for modelling, since
water movements are not limited to the rivers and channels only, but are also used for large inundated
land areas.
5.2 Model components

Before a model of an area can be made, data of dimensions of the region is required. Data used in this
model is obtained in several ways. It was delivered by external organizations like PRFFWC and USGS as well
as from our own measurements in the larger rivers. This section gives an overview of the different data
used in the model for the 1D component as well as the 2D component and their boundary conditions.
Meteorological data in the area of interest is neglected, for the reason that this is only a preliminary model
and also because the discharge coming from upstream from the entire Pampanga River Basin is expected
to have a higher influence on the flooding of the area.
5.2.1 Physical data for 1D flow module
For horizontal dimensions, a GIS-layer (shape file) is used, imported as a background layer in the SOBEK
schematization editor. On this GIS-layer (obtained from PRFFWC)16, all the mayor drainage components are
represented. The model outlines of the main river branches are marked on top of this layer to create the
1D system of the area. Only the main drainage system in the Pampanga Delta is sketched, both for
simplicity reasons and because of the fact that a good overview of the model behaviour of these rivers
gives enough insight in the behaviour of the water system for this first flow impression. It is chosen to
create calculation points in the model after every two kilometres. After this part is finished, dimensions will
be given to the several river branches. The dimensions are obtained from own measurements. However,
these are considerably simplified for this first modelling attempt. Since the slope of the Pampanga River is
smaller than 1:10,000 in the first 20 [km] and between 1:10,000 and 1:5,000 after 20 [km] until 70 [km]17, it
15
Deltares (2013)
PRFFWC (2013)
17
16
23
is estimated that the difference in elevation of the river bed between the upstream and downstream
boundary conditions is around 3 [m]. An overview of the drainage system for this model is shown in
[Appendix 15 ].
5.2.2 Physical data 2D flow module
For the 2D flow module, a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) obtained from USGS18 will be used. Initially, it was
desirable to use data from SRTM 19 (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission) for 2D input (resolution: 3-arcsecond). However, to prevent long model run times and for practical reasons, it was determined that the
resolution was too high for this preliminary model. Data from GMTED2010 (Global Multi-resolution Terrain
Data 2010) is imported in the model after downloading it from the database and processing it to the right
format. See [Appendix 15 ] for an overview of the DEM map clipped for the Pampanga River Basin with the
1D model already imported. The resolution of the DEM map is 7.5-arc-second for the Philippines, indicating
that the horizontal and vertical resolutions are more or less 230 [m]. Since the unit of vertical (northsouth) and horizontal (east-west) resolution is in degrees, the horizontal and vertical resolution do not
match in meters, the unit that SOBEK uses for elevation data input layers. However, since the Philippines is
close to the equator, the resolution horizontally and vertically is nearly the same. In this modelling attempt,
it is assumed that both resolutions are also the same in meters. It is chosen to take the horizontal
resolution (dx) as model input for both the horizontal and vertical cell dimensions. For that reason, the
imported GIS-layer does not match perfectly with the DEM. The 1D-system is for that reason changed to
the outlines of the (slightly disproportionate) DEM-layer. The vertical resolution of the DEM (perpendicular
to the land surface) is one meter. This indicates that one has to be careful with just accepting values of the
DEM. Since the model will be made for a delta area, small elevation differences (much smaller than a
meter) are assumed to be essential in modelling of this relatively flat area. The amount of distinct
elevations in the model is pretty low in this region, with relatively small absolute elevation differences.
5.2.3 Boundary conditions
Five boundary conditions are implemented in the model. Three downstream boundaries give the water
levels as a function of time in Manila Bay at the outflow of Pampanga River, Labangan Floodway and Pasac
River. For simplicity, the water levels are fixed on 1.5 [m], more or less corresponding to the water level at
high tide in Manila Bay. One upstream boundary gives discharges of events with a certain return period for
the main discharging river, the Pampanga. Another upstream boundary gives discharges for the Angat
River, which will be 25% of the Pampanga River discharge.
5.3 Model results and discussion

This is a preliminary model and it is meant to give some first impressions in the behaviour of the delta
system. The peak discharge chosen for the Pampanga River in this model corresponds to a once in five
years return period. However, since there are no design discharges available, it is assumed that this
discharge intensity lasts for five consecutive days, with an ascending and descending limb from and to the
mean annual discharge. The discharge for the Angat River is also schematized. It is assumed that the
discharge here corresponds to the above mentioned 25% of the Pampanga. The run-time for the model is
one month, which more or less corresponds with the time that a big flood could take place. The time step
is chosen to be 12 hours, in order to prevent long model running times.
18
19
USGS (2013)
NASA (2014)
24
The first model outcome is not very representative. For the assumed discharge, it is not showing any
significant flooding of the delta area. It is expected that this is caused by the fact that the digital elevation
model from GMTED2010 has not very representative elevation values for the delta area. This could be seen
in Figure 5-1. One could see that at a certain point (30 [km] upstream from the boundary condition at
Manila Bay), the elevation of a tile around the river is 13 [m], while the elevation here should be around
3[m] 20. Also, closer to Manila Bay, the elevation of the land is higher than the regular floods in this area
would suggest. It is believed that the higher elevations in the GMTED2010 DEM are due to buildings and
vegetation along the Pampanga River and in the Pampanga Delta. For the Pampanga River, this could also
be seen in Figure 5-1. The model outcomes show water levels in the channels that increase to a value
corresponding to the lowest tile elevation along the Pampanga River. After this, a relatively small area
upstream is flooded, indicating that the model suggests that there is enough storage capacity in the river
for a once in five years-discharge.
Figure 5-1: High elevation and buildings along Pampanga River (Images/maps: Google, DigitalGlobe, Europa Technologies, 2014)
Because the first try did not give representative flooding results, it is determined to change the 1D-model
to ensure that the area will be flooded, as in the actual case. Since the 1D part of the model lies far below
the 2D part of the model, the most easy solution is to increase the 1D part of the model in elevation so that
the 1D-model elevations approach the values of the DEM tiles. The elevation of the entire 1D-system is
increased with 5 [m], leading to higher river beds and river banks as well. In accordance with the
expectations, this modelling approach gives significant flooding of the delta area, but again one has to be
careful with interpreting these results. At the end of the flooding event applied in the model, the delta area
is flooded like shown in Figure 5-2. One could see that especially many low-lying areas are flooded and that
many urban areas are still dry after the simulation. The legend is shown in [Appendix 15 ]. This is due to the
fact that urban areas are represented as higher areas due to high density of buildings. Striking are the deep
blue areas north-east of Calumpit. A possibility why the areas there are deep blue and thus heavily flooded
compared to the rest of the area, is that this region is surrounded by high elevation in the north and east
and by two rivers in the west and south. This way, discharge from these areas if somewhat difficult. Since
the elevation of the rivers is artificially increased and the digital elevation model in high density areas also
gives higher elevation, it is not sure to which extent the outcomes are representative for the real situation.
20
25
Figure 5-2: Flooded areas (in blue) after design runoff event with peak discharge with return period of 5 years
5.4 Preliminary validation

The preliminary model outcomes are validated with satellite images of flooded areas after a significant
storm. This model is compared to an image from Landsat 8 taken on October 18, 2013; more or less a week
after typhoon Nari (or Santi) hit central Luzon. The image from Landsat 8 is shown in Figure 5-3. Striking
similarities between the modelled flood map and the observed flood map are mainly visible north-east of
Calumpit (the deep blue areas). These areas are also flooded on the observed flood map. Also, the area
south-east of Calumpit shows some inundated areas that are flooded in the model. Although the image
from Landsat 8 seems to match with the modelled outcomes, this does not mean that the flooded areas
are solely caused by the particular storm, one week before typhoon Nari. We do not know what exact
influence historically high discharges have on inundated areas. What one can say about this model is that
some areas are indeed more susceptible to high river discharges than others.
26
Figure 5-3: Flood map Pampanga Delta after Typhoon Nari in 2013 together with main streams and Calumpit(Images: USGS,
Landsat, 2013)
5.5 Conclusion
As one could deduce from the results, this model is a first step in modelling the floods due to high river
discharges from upstream. It only approaches representative outcomes due to a lack of information. Also,
the information which is available is of poor quality. The river dimensions are all based on own
measurements and they are simplified due to temporal restrictions for visualization of reality. Furthermore,
the small streams in the delta area are neglected because of the same reason. This digital elevation model
gives a realistic, though not completely accurate two-dimensional representation of flood situations. The
available information about water levels and corresponding discharges in the Pampanga and Angat River is
considered not accurate enough for this type of modelling. In order to obtain better representations of
reality, a measurement program is proposed in addition to a plan to cooperate with an organization21
responsible for collecting high detailed 3D information in the Pampanga River basin.
5.6 Model improvement recommendations

The biggest reason why the SOBEK 1D2D model does not give representative outcomes is because there is
a limited amount of data available for free or in high quality. In this paragraph, solutions against this lack of
data availability are proposed.
21
Inquirer.net (December, 2012)
27
5.6.1 Drainage system dimensions

Since it is indicated that not enough information was available to put the cross sections of all channels of
the Pampanga Delta in the model, it is advised to set up a measurement program in the future. Measuring
cross sections is relatively easy; however, some essential equipment is necessary to achieve an efficient
measurement process. Since there are many (small) streams in the Pampanga Delta it is important to first
make sure that all streams are taken into account for the measurement program. This could be done by
identifying streams with satellite data, which is available these days. With these satellite data, the widths of
the rivers could also easily be determined.
5.6.2 Elevations of the flood prone areas
Since flood prone areas are generally low lying and only have a small gradient, it is necessary to obtain high
resolution elevation data before one could make a model of the system. The freely available digital
elevation models have a vertical resolution of 1 [m]. This resolution is too coarse for these low lying areas,
where elevation differences of 1 [m] could significantly change the response to water levels. Also horizontal
resolutions are too coarse and buildings and vegetation influence present elevation models. Furthermore,
these resolutions of freely available DEMs neglect the effect of small dikes which are omnipresent in the
Pampanga Delta, see Figure 5-4.
Figure 5-4: Small dike in Pampanga Delta around fish ponds
28
Since 2012, there is a measuring program for making high resolution elevation maps for flood prone areas
in the Philippines (NOAH/DREAM) 22. The measurement program DREAM (Disaster Risk and Exposure
Assessment for Mitigation) of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH) works with the
so called LiDAR technique (Light Detection and Ranging) and is meant to make reliable, detailed and up-todate flood models of the eighteen major river basins and watersheds in the Philippines. In two years, high
resolution elevation maps and models will be made. With this technique, elevation models could be refined
up to house level, indicating that the problem of buildings and vegetation disturbing the quality of the
digital elevation model is past. It is advisable to contact this organization, responsible for making LiDAR
elevation maps, about the availability of data. This way, more organizations could make use of the data in
several models. This SOBEK-model of the Pampanga Delta will considerably benefit from the high
resolution LiDAR data.
5.6.3 Rainfall input data, water levels and discharges
Long-time rainfall data for statistically-based statements is currently available at ten rainfall stations (see
[Appendix 16 ]). Rainfall data is available at more stations; however, the time frame of the data series is
(assumed to be) too short for further analysis. In this research, this data is not used for further analysis,
although it can be used as model input data for a model of the entire Pampanga River Basin. No rainfall
data is available for the eight municipalities. This means that assumptions should be made for this area
(Kriging, TRMM).
Water level data at the downstream end is essential in modelling the behaviour of the floods coming from
the sea. In the described modelling approach, flooding from high water levels downstream is neglected,
although tidal flooding is a problem mainly in the southern parts of the Pampanga Delta. It is advisable to
place water depth/pressure meters at the downstream ends of certain streams in the Pampanga Delta to
create representative model inputs for the downstream end of the flood model.
Water level data is also essential for the upstream boundary conditions where it could lead to accurate
rating curves, for the discharge of the river could be determined as a function of the water level. These
rating curves are already available along for several places in the Pampanga River Basin, however the
reliability of these curves is questioned (see chapter [6.2]). It is advisable to take measurements at the
upstream boundaries of the model and to check them again after a certain time, due to the dynamic
character of the physical river system.
22
NOAH (2014)
29
30
6 Advanced Model Input

A detailed hydrodynamic model for a clear overview of the water system in the area is crucial before
solutions for the flooding problem could be proposed, see Chapter 5. Since making a high detailed
hydrodynamic model falls out of the scope of this research, this chapter will mainly focus on model input
parameters, physical system properties and boundary conditions which could be valuable to take into
consideration when making a hydrodynamic model. The area lies downstream of the Pampanga River
Basin, where several river branches from the entire river basin end up in the Pampanga Delta, the study
area of this research.
6.1 Rainfall analysis

Extreme rainfall in the Pampanga River Basin is the most important factor causing upstream flooding in the
Pampanga Delta. Therefore, rainfall will be the most important input parameter in the future
hydrodynamic model. An analysis on rainfall measurements will help to design standardized rainfall events,
which can be implemented in the future model. Rainfall measurements are available throughout the
Pampanga River Basin. Since not every rainfall station has the same times of operation, for simplicity only a
part of the rainfall stations is selected for rainfall analysis. Ten rainfall stations are selected all with data
gathered between 1974 and 2008. See Figure 6-1 for an overview of the locations of the rainfall stations in
the Pampanga River Basin. The names of the rainfall stations taken into consideration in this research are:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
Sapang Buho
Zaragoza
Papaya
San Isidro
Arayat
Candaba
Sibul Spring
Sulipan
Ipo Dam
San Rafael
6.1.1 Rainfall availability

The data coverage for all ten rainfall stations is not complete, meaning that some data in the time interval
1974 2008 is missing. This lack of data availability could have several causes. Some examples of causes
are vandalism of the rainfall station or lack of operational efforts. Since the data supplier (PRFFWC23) does
not give exact clues about this, the cause of the lack of data availability will be disregarded in this research.
An overview of the percentage of days without data records is shown in Table 6-1. The fact that data is
missing also indicates that data availability is not only a problem on a yearly scale, but could also be a
problem on a daily scale. Data is collected per hour and the cumulative rainfall is exported to a daily sum.
One can imagine that if data on some hours during the day is missing, the outcome is a lower daily output
than the value is supposed to be. After taking data samples and checking them for non-complete daily
rainfall series consisting of the cumulative rainfall in 24 hours, one can conclude that this problem is
relatively small. For this reason there is assumed that the daily rainfall is the cumulative of 24 hours of
rainfall on that particular day.
23
PRFFWC (2013)
31
Table 6-1: Percentages of days of no data records in rainfall stations
Sapang
Buho
Zaragoza
Papaya
San
Isidro
Arayat
Candaba
Sibul
Spring
Sulipan
Ipo
Dam
San
Rafael
16,3
12,5
12,8
11,5
15,1
18,3
11,0
9,9
12,2
11,7
Figure 6-1: Locations of used rainfall stations in Pampanga River Basin(Images/maps: Google, TerraMetrics, 2014)
6.1.2 Analysis methods

There are several methods to do rainfall analysis in a specific area of interest. In this research, two research
methods are tried and the outcomes will be discussed and recommendations are done for the rainfall data
that one has to take into account to put in the model. Both methods are based on producing depthduration-frequency curves and intensity-duration-frequency curves of rainfall in specific areas. By means of
these curves, rainfall events could be designed which could be part of the input of the future hydrodynamic
model.
Floods could be caused by different rainfall durations. For example a rainfall event of one day could have
the same effects on floods in a region as a rainfall event of 10 days, with the only difference that the
rainfall depth is more spread over the time for a 10 day rainfall event. In this research, it is assumed that a
flood in the Pampanga Delta will not be caused by rainfall events which take longer than 10 days and not
shorter than one day. For this reason, four rainfall duration times are chosen for the rainfall analysis. The
shortest rainfall duration time is set on k=1 day, the second on k=2 days, the third on k=5 days and the last
rainfall duration is set on k=10 days. These four rainfall durations are plot on the x-axis of the depthduration-frequency curves and the intensity-duration-frequency curves. These curves are made for
different return periods. In this research, it is chosen to use the return periods T=2 year, T=5 years, T=10
years, T=20 years, T=50 years and T=100 years. By means of these different time scales for rainfall return
32
periods, models could be made for frequently occurring natural scenarios (for T=2 year and T=5 year) or
scenarios that take longer before they occur again (for T=10years, T=20 years, T=50 years and T=100
years).
For the two methods regarding rainfall analysis in this research, the main difference is the amount of data
that is needed from rainfall stations to do the analysis. One method needs all the daily rainfall values
between the years 1974 and 2008, while the other method only uses the annual maximum rainfall values
for the four predefined rainfall duration times. These two methods are explained in the paragraphs below.
6.1.3 Analysis of annual extreme precipitation
The analysis of annual extreme precipitation makes use of the so called annual extremes of rainfall values
for the ten rainfall stations24. For the period of 1974 until 2008, the maximum daily, 2-days, 5-days and 10days precipitation amounts are filtered from the daily precipitation list. An example of the maximum
amounts for one rainfall station (Zaragoza) in the Pampanga River Basin is shown in Table . One has to take
into account that this list only shows the maximum precipitation measured on one, two, five and ten days,
so from 0 [h] until 24 [h] on a day. Maximum rainfall numbers measured in 24 [h] spread over two calendar
days etcetera are not taken into account.
Table 6-2: Annual maximum daily, 2-day, 5-day and 10-day rainfall amounts for rainfall station Zaragoza
year
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1 day
210
71
146
115
85
165
135
89
140
43
151
98
148
168
124
68
154
124
2 days
328
120
203
163
149
181
258
106
142
61
188
99
224
178
169
78
169
219
5 days
10 days
414
460
186
235
417
554
177
177
189
233
210
332
292
410
195
240
147
287
83
95
202
304
99
105
324
354
188
255
215
296
148
158
199
362
227
244
year
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
1 day
112
136
97
71
102
104
112
170
219
58
120
100
144
68
112
65
65
2 days
112
224
112
87
102
182
159
286
228
65
163
152
279
89
120
72
95
5 days
10 days
123
175
252
269
119
199
140
182
133
216
278
314
242
341
381
398
320
378
80
108
343
483
195
239
327
407
102
115
143
210
144
183
133
180
After this first step, the data are ranked in descending order per year, like shown in Table 6-3 for a rainfall
event of 1 day. After this the probability of exceedance P is calculated with the formula:
24
Savenije, 2007
33
In this formula, n is the number of years of record and m is the rank number of the event. The return
period T is calculated by dividing 1 through the probability of exeedance (T=1/P) and the probability of non
exceedance q with the formula q=1-p. With this information, one can introduce a new parameter y, the
reduced variate which is a function of q (and thus also of P and T).
(
( ))
))
))
This parameter y makes it possible to linearly plot the rainfall-depth relation. This means that easy linear
equations could be made to give a relation between the rainfall depth and the reduced variate y. Since
there are different return periods, this way one can also calculate the reduced variate y per return period
and this value could be filled into the linear equation describing the relation between the rainfall depth and
the reduced variate y. A calculation of the values for the reduced variate y for the predefined return
periods give:
T= 2 years: y= 0.37
T= 5 years: y= 1.50
T= 10 years: y= 2.25
T= 20 years: y= 2.97
T= 50 years: y= 3.90
T= 100 years: y= 4.60
Table 6-3: Rank, probability of (non-) exceedance, return period and reduced variate for rainfall station Zaragoza for daily
precipitation amounts
year rank
2000
1
1974
2
1999
3
1987
4
1979
5
1990
6
1984
7
1986
8
1976
9
2004 10
1982 11
1993 12
1980 13
1988 14
1991 15
2002 16
1977 17
1992
18
Rainfall
depth
(mm)
219
210
170
168
165
154
151
148
146
144
140
136
135
124
124
120
115
P
0,03
0,06
0,08
0,11
0,14
0,17
0,19
0,22
0,25
0,28
0,31
0,33
0,36
0,39
0,42
0,44
0,47
112 0,50
T
36,00
18,00
12,00
9,00
7,20
6,00
5,14
4,50
4,00
3,60
3,27
3,00
2,77
2,57
2,40
2,25
2,12
q
0,97
0,94
0,92
0,89
0,86
0,83
0,81
0,78
0,75
0,72
0,69
0,67
0,64
0,61
0,58
0,56
0,53
y
3,57
2,86
2,44
2,14
1,90
1,70
1,53
1,38
1,25
1,12
1,01
0,90
0,80
0,71
0,62
0,53
0,45
year rank
1998 19
2006 20
1997 21
1996 22
2003 23
1985 24
1994 25
1981 26
1978 27
1975 28
1995 29
1989 30
2005 31
2007 32
2008 33
2001 34
1983 35
Rainfall
depth
(mm)
112
112
104
102
100
98
97
89
85
71
71
68
68
65
65
58
43
P
0,53
0,56
0,58
0,61
0,64
0,67
0,69
0,72
0,75
0,78
0,81
0,83
0,86
0,89
0,92
0,94
0,97
T
1,89
1,80
1,71
1,64
1,57
1,50
1,44
1,38
1,33
1,29
1,24
1,20
1,16
1,13
1,09
1,06
1,03
q
0,47
0,44
0,42
0,39
0,36
0,33
0,31
0,28
0,25
0,22
0,19
0,17
0,14
0,11
0,08
0,06
0,03
y
0,29
0,21
0,13
0,06
-0,02
-0,09
-0,17
-0,25
-0,33
-0,41
-0,49
-0,58
-0,68
-0,79
-0,91
-1,06
-1,28
2,00 0,50 0,37
34
6.1.4 Results
For all the rainfall stations in the Pampanga River Basin, the above mentioned process is performed. Due to
the plenitude of figures, in this report only the rainfall plots for Zaragoza are shown. From the Gumbeldistributions, the depth-duration-frequency curves are performed just like the intensity-duration-frequency
curves (see respectively Figure 6-3, Table 6-4, Figure 6-4 and Table 6-5).
Figure 6-2: Gumbel distributions Zaragoza with k=1d (upper left), k=2d (upper right), k=5d (lower left) and k=10d (lower right)
Depth-Duration-Frequency curves
Zaragoza
Rainfall depth (mm)
800
T=2
600
T=5
400
T=10
200
T=20
T=50
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 6-3: Depth-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza
35
Rainfall intensity (mm/d)
Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves
Zaragoza
300
250
T=2
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 6-4: Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza

Table 6-4: Values DDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza
Rainfall depths Zaragoza (mm)

k=1
k=2
k=5
k=10
T=2
111
149
196 254
T=5
152
215
288 366
T=10
179
259
348 440
T=20
205
301
406 511
T=50
239
356
481 602
T=100
264
397
537 671
Table 6-5: Values IDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza
Rainfall intensities Zaragoza (mm/d)

k=1
k=2
k=5
k=10
T=2
111
74
39
25
T=5
152
108
58
37
T=10
179
130
70
44
T=20
205
151
81
51
T=50
239
178
96
60
T=100
264
198
107
67
6.1.5 Analysis of rainfall with cumulative frequency curves

The analysis of rainfall with cumulative frequency curves makes use of the same rainfall data as in the
analysis of annual extreme precipitation. However, in this case not only the annual extremes are used for
the different rainfall durations, but all the (available) data25. It is expected that this method will give
different depth-duration-frequency curves and intensity duration frequency curves due to the limited data
25
Savenije, 2007
36
availability and the fact that the resolution of the data is only 1 [mm]. This means that especially during
low intensity rainfall events, the relative difference between real rainfall and measured rainfall could be
high.
The analysis starts with making an overview of the amount of consecutive days in the period between 1974
and 2008, which lie in a certain class interval of rainfall amounts for a rainfall period of 1, 2, 5 and 10 days
(i.e. there is an amount of 250 rainfall periods with a length of 5 days with a rainfall intensity higher than 50
mm). The values in this overview are converted to repetition times by applying the following formula:
With total time periods the total amount of time periods of 1,2,5 and 10 days in the period 1974 2008.
The classified time periods are the amount of time periods falling in a certain class interval (mm) for
certain rainfall periods. After this the return periods T are plot against the rainfall depths for the rainfall
periods of 1,2,5 and 10 days. The created graph is a so called cumulative frequency curve. With this curve,
depth-duration-frequency curves and intensity-duration-frequency curves could be made.
6.1.6 Results
For all the rainfall stations in the Pampanga River Basin, the cumulative frequency curves are made
together with the depth-duration-frequency curves and intensity-duration frequency curves. Due to the
plenitude of figures, in this report only the rainfall plots for Zaragoza are shown. In the cumulative
frequency curves, only return periods higher than 0.5 year are plot, due to fact that the main interest is in
high rainfall intensities and not in low rainfall intensities. This way the values are extrapolated for longer
return periods only. The cumulative frequency curve for the rainfall station in Zaragoza is shown in Figure
6-5 with the return period on a logarithmic scale. For the depth-duration-frequency curves and intensityduration-frequency curves see Figure 6-6 and Figure 6-7. The corresponding values are shown in Table 6-6
and Table 6-7.
Cumulative frequency curves Zaragoza

1000
y = 0,0434e0,0311x
y = 0,0322e0,0224x y = 0,0218e0,0147x
k=1
Return period (y)
100
k=2
y=
0,0035e0,0148x
k=5
k=10
10
Expon. (k=1)
Expon. (k=2)
1
0
200
400
600
800
Expon. (k=5)
Expon. (k=10)
0,1
Rainfall depth (mm)
Figure 6-5: Cumulative frequency curves rainfall station Zaragoza
37
Rainfall depth (mm)
Depth-Duration-Frequency curves
Zaragoza
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
T=2
T=5
T=10
T=20
T=50
0
10
T=100
12
Duration (days)
Figure 6-6: Depth-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza
Zaragoza
300
250
T=2
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 6-7: Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves for rainfall station Zaragoza

Table 6-6: Values DDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza
Rainfall depths Zaragoza (mm)

k=1
k=2
k=5 k=10
T=2
123
184 307 429
T=5
153
225
370
491
T=10
175
256
417
538
T=20
197
287
464
585
T=50
227
328
526
646
T=100
249
359
574
693
38
Table 6-7: Values IDF curves rainfall station Zaragoza
Rainfall intensities Zaragoza (mm/d)

k=1
k=2
k=5 k=10
T=2
123
92
61
43
T=5
153
113
74
49
T=10
175
128
83
54
T=20
197
144
93
58
T=50
227
164 105
65
T=100
249
179 115
69
6.1.7 Discussion on rainfall analysis
As one can see from the depth-duration-frequency curves and intensity-duration-frequency curves from
the two rainfall analysis methods, is that the results for the analysis with cumulative frequency curves give
higher values than the analysis with annual extreme precipitation amounts. This is not only the case with
the rainfall values for rainfall station Zaragoza, but also in nearly every rainfall station.
Since it is not clear which analysis gives the best results, one cannot say anything about the best depthduration frequency curves or intensity-duration-frequency curves for the area. There are some striking
points that one has to take into account before one decides to make use of certain rainfall analysis
outcomes.
One point is that there is a significant amount of data missing in the data series, around 13% of all the
rainfall data. Sometimes entire months are missing for a rainfall station or sometimes even large parts of
the year. This indicates that more rainfall events take place in reality. In the two analyses, the days without
data are considered as dry days. This is not correct of course. For this reason, both the depth-durationfrequency curves and intensity-duration-frequency curves should give higher values for both analyses.
Since the lack of available data series and the two varying outcomes of the rainfall analyses give uncertainty
about the use of the reliability of the analyses, only intensity-duration-frequency curves from the analysis
with annual extreme precipitation amounts are given in [Appendix 16 to prevent indistinctness. If one
decides to use these values for modelling, one has to make sure to at least increase the values with a
certain factor in proportion to the amount of missing data. It is advised to do some further analysis to get a
better understanding about rainfall amounts in the area.
6.2 River Runoff

The conversion from rainfall to runoff is a crucial hydrological connection. For the Pampanga delta it is
important for the following reasons:
It provides information on expected fluvial flooding scenarios;

It can be used to forecast fluvial floods as rain can be forecasted several days.
Rainfall runoff modelling is somewhat more an art than a science. This can be explained partially by the
difficult route that raindrops take to the rivers and partially by uncertainty in data sources. Rainfall data is
available26, although by definition it has quite some uncertainty. To be able to make the rainfall runoff
26
PRFFWC (2013)
39
connection reasonably well, reliable runoff ground data should be available, obtained by many stream flow
measurements.
27
Figure 6-8 - Water height gauges (Images/maps: Google, TerraMetrics, 2014)
Typically, water heights are measured to be converted to stream flows. Hourly water height data is
available for at least several years on the stations displayed in Figure 6-8. These water heights seem
reliable but converting them to stream flows is problematic.
The stations Sulipan, Sasmuan, Candaba and Arayat can be observed to have a strong tidal influence. This
means that it is not possible to use a simple rating curve, as time variation plays a big role whereas rating
curves are based on equilibrium flows.
Unfortunately the stations San Isidro, Peqaranda and Mayapyap do not show any low flows, which is
probably erroneous, since the upstream station Sapang Buho does show them. Low flows are quite
important to properly model rainfall runoff behaviour. Thereby, the available rating curves come with one
calibration parameter only, which seems to indicate that only few stream flow measurements have been
taken to obtain this curve. This means these curves will not give an accurate conversion from water height
to stream flow and are not elaborated further.
27
Google Earth
40
7 Salt Intrusion
7.1 Introduction
Salt intrusion is an important aspect to consider in an agricultural area which might be subject to change.
As it depends on the behaviour of the whole system, it is a complicated aspect. Analytical relations
obtained by simplification can show which parameters are important. These parameters can be used for
qualitative analysis. They can be directly obtained from measurements, or indirectly derived from other
information. The quality of quantitative analysis depends heavily on measurements and can be improved
over time by continued measuring.
7.2 Parameters
The following parameters are important:
The average water depth [m]
The tidal range (the difference between high tide and low tide) [m]
The tidal excursion (~ the distance water moves up and down the estuary in a tidal period) [m]
A mixing coefficient (a measure for the salt mixing in the estuary)
The first three parameters can be seen as a summary for the tidal dynamics, whereas the mixing coefficient
is a lumped, empirical variable that quantifies the salt mixing process. The analytical model used here
simplifies the intrusion process to a salt curve that moves up and down as the tides moves in or out of the
estuary. All of these parameters will slowly change, forced by nature. When considering a bigger timescale,
like 100 years, they should all be taken into account.
As a flooding related aspect, the water depth is important, since it can be changed rapidly when adjusting
the system in order to prevent flooding 28. Dredging is a measure that has often been mentioned to solve
the flooding problem.
Another parameter that might be able to change in a short period of time is the mixing coefficient. The
mixing is related to water depths. In a heavily interconnected delta like the Pampanga delta, horizontal
circular motion will be important when determining the mixing. Thereby measurements have shown that
confluences and bifurcations play a big role in mixing. What is a confluence for flow in one direction is a
bifurcation for flow in the other direction. Sea water that enters the estuary often flows into bifurcations as
it fills up all the small side canals. As the water flows out with the retreating tide, water with different salt
concentration meets in the confluences and mixes. Therefore much mixing takes place in the estuary when
the tide retreats.
Measures against flooding will most likely influence the water depths and therefore the mixing process.
The resulting influence on salt intrusion should be taken into account when designing these measures. A
first attempt to quantify the phenomenon is done with analytical relations.
28
Savenije (2007)
41
7.3 Tidal dynamics

Depth measurements were performed in the whole estuary. Thereby depth variation measurements were
taken on two locations on the estuary, the mouth of the Pampanga River and further upstream the
Pampanga, at the Barangay Sulipan in Calumpit. Combining the depth measurements with the depth
variation measurements the wet cross sections are obtained. From these cross sections the average depths
and the convergence length have been determined. Thereby the tidal range has been derived from these
measurements where the largest value has been used, which occurs at spring tide.
Using the phase lag equation and the geometry tide relation, the tidal excursion has been computed29.
Even though salt measurements or numerical models can give a more accurate computation of the tidal
excursion for each location, this gives a good idea of its magnitude. A computed value for the tidal
excursion is ~16 [km], (see [Appendix 17 ]). With the right timing of water intake for irrigation, a stretch of
a half to three quarters of the tidal excursion can be irrigated with fresh water, when comparing with the
system of taking in water when it is highest with the simple system of weirs (overlets).
Phase lag equation:
( )
The angular velocity, related to the tidal period

c
The long wave celerity, the speed with which the wave propagates ( )
The convergence length, a measure for convergence

The damping coefficient, a measure for damping of the wave height
Geometry tide relation:
( )
29
The average water depth

The storage/width ratio
The tidal range
Savenije (2012)
42
7.4 Intrusion curve

Due to a lack of availability of speedboats, no salt measurements have been taken in the Pampanga River.
The envelope method where the salinity at low and high water slack are measured requires a boat that
goes faster than the wave celerity, which means around 30 [km/h] for the Pampanga river.
Therefore this method can only provide a rough estimate of the salt intrusion curve, by using predictive
equations. These equations have been obtained from measurements on many estuaries over the world.
However, they might not have contained comparable complex geometry as in the Pampanga delta and
therefore measurements should definitely be taken.
The shape of the salt intrusion curve is empirically computed with the mixing coefficient. An estimated
value for K has been computed using a predictive equation. In Figure 7-1 a first attempt to mimic the salt
intrusion curve in the Pampanga River is shown. Here LWS is the minimum intrusion at low water slack, TA
is the tidal average intrusion and HWS is the maximum salt intrusion at high water slack.
Figure 7-1 - Predicted salt intrusion curve in the Pampanga River
43
7.5 Salt measurements in Hagonoy

Salt measurements have been taken in Hagonoy to demonstrate the theory and to be used by these people
living in the current frontier of where salt intrusion makes it difficult for rice farming. Figure 7-2 shows the
measured concentrations on several bridges over the Hagonoy River. A difficulty was that high water slack,
where the maximum concentration at each location can be measured, kept occurring at night. Therefore
we do not have maximum values. This means that the maximum of the envelope consisting of the
maximum and minimum values is bigger than we can show in the measurements. The horizontal distance
between the two lines is the tidal excursion and the vertical distance shows how much the salinity varies on
each location.
When comparing the Hagonoy River to the Pampanga River, there is a big difference in size. As the depth in
the Hagonoy is a lot smaller, the tide has more difficulty moving up and down in the Hagonoy River and
therefore the tidal excursion is a lot smaller here. This can also be seen from the salt measurements, where
the increasing salt concentration in the tail shows that water from the Pampanga River enters the Hagonoy
River through the backdoor, Hagonoys upstream end.
Figure 7-2 - Tidal excursions (horizontal axis) and relative concentrations (vertical axis) in Hagonoy River
44
7.6 Recommendations
As the salt intrusion curve moves up and down the estuary, it is important to have the right timing when
taking out water for irrigation. At each location there is a maximum and a minimum salinity, respectively at
high water slack and at low water slack. For irrigation it follows that water should be taken in at low water
slack tide, when it is as fresh as it is going to get. But in practice, normal intake structures react on water
heights rather than water movement.
Along the pathway of a fixed volume of water which may be assumed to have a constant salt concentration
and is moving with the average stream velocity, different water heights can be observed. For the shape of
this curve the convergence of the cross sectional area is crucial. A typical example, comparable to the
Pampanga River, is displayed in Figure 7-3, where the x-axis is directed positive upstream.
Figure 7-3 Salt particle movement
In the project area many intakes for irrigation have been observed to be weirs. They take in water when it
is high tide. This means that they take in water which at that time is in between half to fully its tidal
excursion inland, and therefore they take in water which is relatively salty.
By changing to constructions which can take in water at low water slack tide, the front line of irrigated rice
area which has problems with salinity can be moved this distance downstream. This is a difference of ~10
[km] and therefore significant. The constructions could for example be gates. The exact timing can be
determined simply by using a float with a long rope attached to an anchor. When this float starts moving
upstream, slack tide has arrived. Also without these indicators, the fishing community will be fully aware of
this moment, as they have to move to the other railing of the bridge.
45
46
8 Land Use Changes

8.1 Problem description
For several decades, crop yields of rice paddies lower to the point that growing rice on these fields is not
profitable anymore. Farmers come up with different reasons for the decrease in crop yield. There are
mainly two reasons (see [Appendix 19 ]). First, there is the group that thinks that crop yields decrease
because of the fact that there are more floods in the last decades. Water quantity is the issue, according to
this group. Second, there is the group of farmers that thinks that water quality is mainly the issue. For
them, salt intrusion is considered as the main issue for decrease of crop yields in the area.
The big problem is not only that rice fields are depleting in the coastal municipalities, because of floods, but
it is also possible to use the land for other opportunities, like fishponds, which generate more money than
conventional rice paddies. A significant problem is that changing rice fields into fishponds takes a lot of
manpower and thus money. Rice is ideally planted on a paddy with low water levels. The water level needs
to be increased if the rice plants grow. After a few months, the water level should be increased to get good
rice yields. However, fish ponds need higher water levels (about one meter) for ideal growing conditions. In
this region it is often not possible to just increase the water level on the rice paddies to make aquaculture
possible, for the fields have to be deepened and dikes heights around the ponds need to be increased. The
price of this process is approximately [3,000,000.00/ha] (see [Appendix 19 ]).
Another problem is that the change from rice paddies to fishponds results in a reduction of employment
rate. For growing rice dependent on the time of the year there are daily many people on the field to do
the labour. For fishponds, most of the time there are no labourers necessary (see [Appendix 19 ]). The
result of this is a big shift in the local economy and employment.
8.2 Introduction research plan

Insight in the changes of the situation could lead to a better understanding of the land use change in the
past and could also lead to more considered decisions about land use in the future. Since there are mainly
two types of rural surface areas in the eight municipalities rice paddies and fishponds it would be useful
to find a way of monitoring the land use over time.
If one takes a look into the physical properties of rice paddies and fish ponds, the main difference is that
rice fields for a large part of the year consist of plant material, while fish ponds are covered with water
during the same period. The latter sometimes only get dry during harvesting of the fish. A good way of
distinguishing these two land use types is by optical distinction. Both land use types reflect different wave
lengths with different intensities. If it is possible to find certain wavelengths for optical distinction of land
use, one can (in theory) easily make a classification for the land use type at a certain moment. Since there
are optical satellite pictures freely available in different spectra, these pictures could be used for the
classification.
Satellite images of certain areas are made in multiple bands of the light spectrum. Some of these bands are
located in the visible spectrum for humans. Other spectral bands consist of wavelengths that are higher or
lower than the human eye could perceive. Two spectral bands that could significantly contribute to
distinguishing the difference between rice paddies and fish ponds are the so called red band and the
near infrared band (NIR band). This red band is visible for the human eye, while the near infrared
band is not. There is a big difference in the reflection of near infrared light between plants (rice paddies)
47
and water. Plants reflect significantly more near infrared light to space than water (e.g. fish ponds) does.
Together with the wavelengths of the red band, one can set up a ratio, the so called Normalized
Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).
(
) (
The value of the NDVI theoretically varies between the extreme values -1 and 1. A value far below zero
corresponds with water, a value around zero with areas of rock or sand, and values approaching 1
correspond with very dense vegetation. According to these simple rules, the NDVI value of areas with a lot
of fish ponds should approach a value (far) below zero, while the NDVI value of areas with mainly rice
paddies should be positive somewhere between the NDVI of rock and sand and very dense vegetation.
8.3 Data availability, preconditions and constraints

Land use data in shape files is already available in a limited amount, obtained from PRFFWC 30; however,
this information only indicates the land use on a one single moment in time without insight in the dynamics
of the land use in time. The last time the shape file was changed was on March 10, 2010 indicating that this
shape file represents the land use on a moment before this date (see [Appendix 18 ]).
Data for temporal analysis of the land use change is downloaded from a database of the United States
Geological Survey (USGS) 31. On this database, the USGS EarthExplorer, (historical) data from several
satellites is available for downloading or could be requested for processing. Data used in this research
comes from satellites involved in the Landsat program. This program, which is running from July 23, 1972
until present day, collects images of everywhere on Earth in several spectral bands for use in diverse
applications of global climate change research and overall Earth observation. The Landsat mission consists
of several individual satellites covering the Earth for different time intervals. In this research, data will be
used from multiple Landsat satellites that have been in operation for the area of interest.
The suitability and quality of the data is dependent on several factors. One has to take into account that
sensors on the Landsat satellites obtaining the information from the Earth are optical sensors. This means
that the obtained information is dependent on the reflection of sunlight on the Earth surface. A picture
taken in the night is not useful, because sunlight is not reflected and areas of interest are not visible on the
images. Another disadvantage of obtaining data this way is that one is dependent on weather conditions.
No data can be obtained if the area of interest is covered with clouds. Since most of the obtained
information consists of reflected sunlight, the quality of the information is also a bit dependent on the
position of the sun, even during daytime.
The NDVI of the area of interest will be related to land use here. This NDVI ratio, which consists of two
theoretical spectral bands, is dependent on the wavelength intervals of the satellites covering these
spectral bands. These intervals are not the same for all Landsat satellites. Because of that, using the exact
values for NDVI of predefined pixels in the area is not a good method to do quantitative statements about
the land use. The way of land use determination for this research is through comparison of NDVI of all
pixels in the area with each other. According to the theory, areas of water (fish ponds and rivers) should
conflict significantly with other categories of land use in NDVI value.
The following files downloaded from USGS EarthExplorer are used for the land use investigation:
30
31
PRFFWC (2013)
USGS (2013)
48
LM21240501976058AAA05 (February 27, 1976), band 5, band 6

LT41160501989025XXX07 (January 25, 1989), band 3, band 4
LE71160502002365SGS00 (December 31, 2002), band 3, band 4
LC81160502013147LGN00 (May 27, 2013), band 4, band 5
The data is only chosen for the time period between November and May; this to prevent wrong image
interpretation. The time from June till October/November is considered as the rainy season when also
most of the floods occur. The chance is relatively high that images are chosen with flooded areas, which
are dry outside the rainy season.
8.4 Data processing

After downloading data from the USGS database via Earth Explorer, the useful information corresponding
to the demanded information to produce NDVI maps is opened in GIS program QGIS. We chose to use QGIS
for data processing, because it is an open source package. NDVI maps are made by applying the QGIS raster
calculator. After this, the NDVI maps are imported in GRASS via the GRASS plug-in. With this plug-in, the
NDVI maps are coloured according to a colour scheme appropriate for NDVI representation. Negative
values get bluer, positive values get greener. Around zero the NDVI colours are white or brown. See Figure
8-1 for an overview of the colour distribution (legend) of the NDVI value range.
Figure 8-1: Legend of NDVI values in QGIS
49
8.5 Results
In this chapter, an overview of the land use in the area will be given with significant time intervals, to show
if and how the land use is changing over significant units of time. A line visualizes the so called edge
between the area where there are mainly fish ponds and the area where there are mainly rice paddies in
the rural area. Extensions of urban areas are not considered in this analysis. Although the values on
different NDVI maps do not match for not changing land use, one can clearly distinct the different types of
land use on the separate NDVI maps after some practising. Small circles on the land use maps indicate
interview locations for land use validation, purple lines and areas indicate (relatively large) water bodies
according to the information obtained from PRFFWC32.
8.5.1
Land use in 1976 (February 27)
Figure 8-2: Land use map - NDVI, February 27, 1976 (Images: USGS, Landsat, 1976)
One can clearly see on the land use map (Figure 8-2), created with Landsat 1 data from 1976, that the fish
ponds are mainly concentrated in the southern areas of the eight municipalities. Focussing on Hagonoy,
the only areas with fish ponds are the southern barangays. The fish ponds do not go further north than the
urban parts of the barangays San Pascual, Santa Cruz, Santo Rosario, Sagrada Famila and Santa Elena. Also
the coastal barangays San Roque, Pugad and Tibaguin deal with fish ponds already. The area in the south is
also not completely white and blue. Obviously, there are also parts with vegetation or other land types
32
PRFFWC (2013)
50
than fish ponds. Another striking thing is that the area in the west, in the municipalities Macabebe and
Masantol, is still largely planted with rice or vegetated in another way. The soft light pink, purple and light
blue circles indicate the locations of the land-use validation interviews done during the fieldwork.
8.5.2
Land use in 1989 (January 25)
Figure 8-3: Land use map - NDVI, January 25, 1989 (Images: USGS, Landsat, 1989)
On the map from January 25, 1989 shown in Figure 8-3, one can clearly see that the edge between rice
paddies and fish ponds has shifted northwards related to the edge on the land use map of 1976. Barangays
of Hagonoy, which are adapted to fish ponds are according to this map: San Jose, Mercado, San Nicolas,
San Sebastian, Santo Nio, San Pablo and parts of Santa Monica. However, the land use change seems to
be the most severe in the western part of the eight municipalities: Masantol and Macabebe, in relation to
the land use in 1976. This part of the area is located in the area where the Pampanga River and its
tributaries are situated. In the east, the land use shift does not seem to change significantly. There are no
large discharging rivers situated in this region, only tidal creeks.
51
8.5.3
Land use in 2002 (December 31)
Figure 8-4: Land use map - NDVI, December 31, 2002 (Images: USGS, Landsat, 2002)
The first striking thing on the map in Figure 8-4 is that the NDVI values of the entire area are generally
lower than the values of 1976 and 1989. This has not to do with the fact that the total area became wet.
The rain meters in the catchment do not show significant rainfall amounts for the time prior to the timing
of this map. For this reason, it is assumed that the shift in colour pattern is related to the reflection
parameters of the light. The colour white is in this case thus not per definition related to water. If one
compares the fish pond area from this year with the area of fish ponds of 1989, the major land use change
took place again in the western parts of the municipalities, where the Pampanga River is located. In
Hagonoy, several barangays had to deal with land use change during these years. The barangays are:
Tampok, San Miguel, San Agustin and San Pedro. The blue and white area in the northeast of the eight
municipalities around Malolos is not related to water because of fish ponds, but it is caused by cloud cover
on the moment that the images are taken.
52
8.5.4
Land use in 2013 (May 27)
Figure 8-5: Land use map - NDVI, May 27, 2013 (Images: USGS, Landsat, 2013)
The map in Figure 8-5 shows a lot of absolute colour differences compared to the previous land use maps.
The reason for this is that for this map another satellite is used for image production. This satellite (Landsat
8) uses different spectral intervals for the red band and the near infrared band. For this reason, the NDVI
values of images taken with this satellite and the NDVI values of other satellites do not match. The areas
that were involved in land use change in the time interval from 2002 until 2013, are mainly areas around
the Labangan Channel (Paombong and Hagonoy) and the Pampanga River (Macabebe). In Hagonoy, the
barangays affected by the land use change between 2002 and 2013 are San Isidro, San Juan, Palapat,
Carillo and Abulalas. Iba and Iba-Ibayo are the only two barangays which are not subjected to significant
land use change now.
53
8.6 Validation of land use

The land use information obtained from satellite data will be validated by means of field interviews. People
living in the area are asked what type of land use is present in the area of the field interview. The location
of the field interview is marked by creating a waypoint on the location of the interview with a GPS device.
By means of this fact, the remote sensed information is checked in the field. For the field interviews, mainly
people from older generations are consulted on the fields, because they generally have a better insight in
the land use change over the years than the younger generation. An overview of the interviews itself is in
[0]. The interviews are conducted on two days. On the first day (December 20, 2013), two groups went in
the field by tricycle. The first group went from Calumpit down south till the southernmost barangay of
Hagonoy, the second group went from Calumpit down south till the southernmost barangay of Paombong.
On the second day, one group went from Malolos to Hagonoy more or less perpendicular to the routes on
the first interview day. In Figure 8-6, an overview of the locations of the interviews together with the
corresponding waypoint numbers is shown.
Figure 8-6: Locations of land use interviews including waypoint numbers (Images/maps: Google, TerraMetrics, 2014)
On all the locations, it was asked what the current land use is and how the land use evolved during the
years. In Table 8-1, a schematic overview is given from the answers obtained during the interviews
regarding land use, including current land use, former land use and timing of significant land use change.
54
When these validation results were compared to the remotely sensed data, the information from the land
use maps does not seem to match the information obtained from the interviews very exactly. However,
one has to take into account that land use change is a time process of years and generally not every rice
field in a neighbourhood is converted to fish pond at the same moment. This could be explained by the fact
that areas are a mix of green and white/blue colours. It could be that not all rice (or vegetable-) fields in
areas of neighbouring plots did change to fish pond on the same moment. This results in areas that are
hardly recognizable as pure rice field area or pure fish pond area. For this reason, one has to be cautious
with interpreting the land use maps from this chapter, since the real border (or maybe a better word:
transition zone) between rice fields and fish ponds could be slightly different than on these land use maps.
Although it is difficult to make a perfect representation of the reality with remote sensed images of land
use in this area, one can still observe from the validation interviews that the rural land use is significantly
changing from rice agriculture to fish ponds. This process takes place from south to north and many people
indicate that this land use change is the result of the salinization of the water used for irrigation and the
higher frequency of crop destroying floods. According to the land use maps, the land use change is the
most significant in the neighbourhood of Pampanga River and also relatively strong around the Labangan
Channel. These waterways are both dredged years ago and canalized in order to achieve a better drainage
of the area in times of floods.
Another possibility for the land use change is the sea level rise due to climate change. Furthermore land
subsidence has to be taken into account as an influencing factor. There are estimates that the land in
Pampanga province subsides 0.5 [cm/year] inland to 8 [cm/year] at the coastal municipalities33. A last issue
that has to be taken into account is local water level rise as a result of land reclamation at the coastline of
Manila. Farmers indicate that problems in the area appeared after these land reclamations were
performed. However there are no objective researches about this available. Further research to the causes
of land use change in the project area falls outside the scope of this project.
33
55
Table 8-1: Land use details obtained at field interview locations
Calumpit Hagonoy
Calumpit Paombong
Location
601
602
603
604
605
606
607
608
609
610
611
612
701
702
703
704
705
706
707
Malolos Hagonoy
708
709
710
711
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
Current dominating
land use
rice
rice
rice (3 harvests/year)
rice + fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
rice (2 harvests/year)
+ vegetable
rice
rice (in rainy season
only one a year) +
vegetable + peanut
blue
grass
+
vegetable
fish
pond
+
vegetable
fish pond
rice
single rice field
between many fish
ponds
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
no agriculture
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
fish pond
rice + fish pond
352 rice + fish pond
Former dominating land

use
rice
rice
rice (1 harvest/year)
rice
fish pond
rice
rice
rice (+some fish pond)
rice
rice
fish pond
fish pond
Time of significant land use

change
4 years ago (2009)
15 years ago (1998)
13 years ago (2000)
20 years ago (1993)
20/30 years ago (1993/1983)
25 years ago (1988)
20/25 years ago (1993/1988)
fish pond since 1973
-
rice + vegetable
rice
rice (multiple times a

year)
1991
rice and sugar cane
5/6 years ago (2008/2007)
rice
rice
fish pond
1990-1999
"long time ago "
early 90s (1990)
fish pond
rice
rice
mangrove
rice
rice
no agriculture
?
rice
rice
?
rice
?
late 80s begin 90s (1990)
20 years ago (1993)
30 years ago (1983)
2000
35 years ago (1979)
?
10 years ago (2004)
8/10 years ago (2006/2004)
?
10/15 years ago (2004/1999)
rice
10 years ago (2004)
56
9 Flood Resilient Sanitation

Residents of the delta can manage to bring themselves and each other to relative safety. Over the past ten
years, there has hardly been any casualty that was directly caused by flooding. Public health however, is
affected by the floods. Medical surveys during floods indicate the occurrence of water borne diseases.
First, the current situation of the public health and the sanitation will be discussed based on interviews and
health statistics. Second, an alternative sanitation system is presented, both for drinking water and
wastewater treatment.
9.1 Current situation

Sanitation and public hygiene, related to drinking- and waste water, are of vital importance to public
health. Researches performed here, are based on information and data from the Hagonoy Water District,
the sanitation office of the municipality of Hagonoy and interviews and observations in Hagonoy and the
surrounding municipalities.
9.1.1 Public health
Ahern et Al. (2005) have made an overview of the impacts of flood on public health. Their results are
summarised below in Table 9-1.
Table 9-1: Global Health Impacts of Flooding based on Ahern et Al. (2005).
Type
Specific disease
Comment
Mortality
Drowning/trauma
Mostly during flash-floods
Yearly increase of deaths
Weakened Immune system
Sprains/strains
34% of all injuries
Lacerations
24% of all injuries
other injuries
11% of all injuries
Abrasions/contusions
11% of all injuries
Injuries
Fecal-oral disease
Cholera
Cryptosporidiosis
Diarrhoea (non specific)
Acute Respiratory Infection
poliomyelitis
Rotavirus
Typhoid & Paratyphoid
Vector-borne disease
Malaria
Rodent-borne disease
Hantavirus
Leptospirosis
Via urine from animals
Dengue
Mental health
Anxiety/depression
Post-flooding
Posttraumatic stress disorder
Only studies from Europe and North America
Suicide
Evidence from one study in a periodically flooded area
The provincial data of the Field Health Service Information System (FHSIS) have listed the top ten leading
causes of morbidity. Table 9-2 gives an overview of the most common diseases in Bulacan Province.
Looking at the data, it seems that the way the data has been collected and arranged makes a statistical
analysis impossible: e.g. Acute Respiratory Infections havent been mentioned in 2004 and 2005, while in
later years this was the most common in the morbidity statistics. Yet, it gives a good idea of the most
common diseases.
57
Waterborne diseases in Table 9-2 are acute respiratory infections, diarrhoea and typhoid. Related to water
and flooding are hypertension, urinary tract infections, infected wounds, skin diseases and dengue (via
mosquitos).
Table 9-2: Ten Leading Causes of Morbidity in Bulacan Province (all ages) between 2004 and 2009 (rate/100,000persons). Diseases
related to flooding by Ahern et Al. (2005) are coloured dark blue, other waterborne or related diseases are coloured light blue.
Source: FHSIS
Disease
2009
2008
2007
2006
Acute Respiratory Infection

Diarrhoea
Bronchitis
Dis. Of the Heart
Influenza
Pneumonias
Hypertension
Urinary Tract Infection
Infected Wound
Skin Diseases
TB
Arthritis
Dog Bites
Ageing
Chicken Pox
Dengue
Measles
Typhoid
Malignant Neoplasm
8413
757
305
6331
739
484
958
446
170
1894
804
396
581
144
363
897
510
494
414
417
347
269
81
97
1693
907
404
151
700
369
501
98
192
194
193
138
95
194
66
2005
2004
754
388
533
268
343
1077
608
125
206
543
72
108
17
16
6
29
12
13
8
196
1.25
More directly related to flooding are the statistics from the evacuation centres in Hagonoy in Table 9-3. A
relatively large fraction of the children, disabled, ill and old are moved to evacuation centres. Therefore,
other diseases like muscular skeletal diseases are also present in a high number. Medicine is also
distributed at the evacuation centres. Not only for flood related diseases, but also for diseases like
diabetes.
Table 9-3: Diseases in the evacuation centres of Hagonoy on 16-8-2012. Diseases related to flooding by Ahern et Al. (2005) are
coloured dark blue, other waterborne or related diseases are coloured light blue. Source: statistics municipality Hagonoy
Disease
Cases
Disease
Cases
Disease
Cases
Acute repiratory infection
485
Bronchial Asthma
18
Gastritis
Atletes Foot
193
Hypersensitivity
12
Cancer
Fever
89
Dental Caries
10
urinary Tract Infection
Hypertension
59
Otitis Media
Pyoderma
well
54
Leptospirosis
B. Febrile Convulsion
Muscular Skeletal Dis.
45
Acute Tonsillo Pharyngitis
Diabetes Melitus
Skin infection
45
Carbuncle
Scabies
Pneumonia
34
Urinary Tract Infection
Epilepsy
Diarrhea
54
Inbertigo
Eczema
Infected Wound
22
(P)TB
Osteoarthritis
Migraine
17
Sore eyes
Diaper Rash
The statistics are useful for analysing the types of diseases in the area during floods and in general.
Especially the high amounts of diarrhoea and infections indicate poor hygienic conditions, both during
58
periods with floods and periods without floods. Poor hygienic conditions can also make the population
more vulnerable to all kinds of other diseases.
There is a national vaccination program that provides vaccines for free, when visiting families. Therefore,
almost the whole population is vaccinated. Of the diseases in Table 9-4 there are only two that can be
directly linked to water: Hepatitis B and Rotavirus, which is a common cause of diarrhoea among young
children.
Table 9-4: Vaccines of the vaccination program
Vaccine
BCG
DTwP
PCV
Hepatitis B vaccine
HiB
Measles vaccine
MMR
OPV
RV
Protection against:
Tuberculosis
Diphtheria
Pertussis
Tetanus
Streptococcus pneumoniae
Hepatitis B
Haemophilus influenzae
Measles
Measles
Mumps
Rubella (German Measles)
Poliomyelitis (Polio)
Rotavirus
34
Waterborne
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
No
No
No
No
No
Yes
Yes
9.1.2 Water supply

The water company of Hagonoy Hagonoy Water District or HWD supplies water in the municipality of
Hagonoy and two barangays in Paombong: San Isidro and Santo Rosario. When the current water supply
system consisting of wells, pipes and a water tower was constructed, it was used as drinking water
source by the residents. None of the visited families in Hagonoy did drink water directly from the tap. Most
buy water in blue jerry-cans, and some boil the water first before drinking it. In 2011, the water price for
households was 115 [PhP] for the first [m3], and 12-15 [PhP] for the next [m3]. Companies pay double that
price. Because the HWD can generate their own income, it has funds available for maintenance and even
sanitation projects.
Water from the network is also used for washing. Most families use a bucket to scoop the water when
washing themselves. Because the bucket under the tap is continuously filled with water, locals can get a
good indication of the water quality by looking at the sludge formation in the bucket. Residents from
Hagonoy mentioned that nowadays the water from the water supply becomes slimy and leaves dark stains,
most likely from sulphur.
Water abstracted by the wells is only chlorinated before it enters the network. The wells are located in
between the houses. A problem indicated by the HWD is leaking of polluted water from the septic tanks in
the town and into the water taken up by the wells. Currently, the water tests all indicate a good water
quality, both in coliform count and in chemicals.
The main network lies under the streets, with the private connections sticking out on the sides of the
streets with the meters. When the roads are raised, the network becomes more and more inaccessible.
There are no private wells in Hagonoy, or at least they are not visible, because they are illegal. In the rural
areas of Paombong nearly all farms have a private well and a connection to the water supply network.
34
Philippine Foundation for Vaccination (2013)
59
During the round of interviews and visiting families, some water samples have been taken from the tap.
The salinity, oxygen concentration and pH-value have been measured and are given in Table 9-5. The
samples have been taken all over Hagonoy, yet there is no clear variation noticeable in salinity
concentrations. Even the communities close to Manila Bay have a salinity that is comparable to the rest of
Hagonoy. The oxygen concentrations indicate that the aquifer from where the water is abstracted is
unconfined, and more susceptible to pollution.
Table 9-5: Measured concentrations of salinity, oxygen and pH in the tap water in Hagonoy. One manual private well has been
found and tested and the fishermen communities Tibaguin, Masukol and Pugad near Manila bay were also visited. *aerated while
taking the sample
House
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Manual well
Tibaguin
Masukol (Paombong)
Pugad
Salinity (mg/l)
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.2
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.6
0.3
0.2
0.2
O2 mg/l
2.00
2.00
0.96
1.15
4.20*
1.10
3.50*
1.04
1.85
1.56
2.14
1.57
pH
7.9
7.5
7.8
7.6
7.7
7.7
7.6
7.6
7.8
7.8
7.7
7.9
9.1.3 Drinking water

Potent water is distributed in blue jerry cans by private companies. They deliver water with tricycles to
customers who have texted them. Shops also sell blue jerry-cans, sometimes with a small discount. Some
shops however, are not trusted by the companies, as they refill the jerry-cans themselves with network
water. To prevent fraud, the supplier of the empty jerry-cans also provides seals for the top caps and the
tap.
Blue jerry-cans are a good way of drinking water distribution during floods. If the treatment facilities are
under water and they cannot be used, jerry-cans from other areas can be imported as the infrastructure of
the jerry-cans is already there.
Prizes range between 20 [PhP] and 30 [PhP] per jerry-can of 20 litres 1,000 and 1,500 [PHP] per [m3]
respectively which is 100 times more expensive than tap water. Therefore, it is only used by some for
cooking as well. The source of water is either a private well, though it is illegal, or water from the network
for which they have to pay double the amount.
Each treatment facility uses different modules for treating the water. Treatment steps used are mainly
filters, ranging from microfiltration to reverse osmosis (RO). Which membrane filters are used is hard to
tell. RO however was quite easy to observe as afterwards some nutrients had to be added. Other
treatment technologies used are ion exchange, activated carbon, UV (ultra violet light) and granular
filtration. The companies say they are checked every month by Aqualab, of the Department of Health.
60
Figure 9-1: Typical treatment steps used for drinking water treatment in Hagonoy
The filters and reactors are sold by companies all over the Philippines. Which treatment step is applied
widely varies. There are companies that only use a membrane filter, but most have quite an extensive
process. Those without ion exchange and reverse osmosis can hardly remove heavy metals or nutrients
from the water. However, the oxygen concentration in the water and the analysis by the HWD suggest that
there is no need for heavy metal removal. Water comes in contact with the air only at the moment the blue
jerry-cans are filled: aeration is not part of the treatment process. The water price does not seem to
depend on the extensiveness of the treatment.
9.1.4 Wastewater
Hagonoy does not have a central sewerage system. Instead, households discharge their grey water grey
water contains water used for washing and cooking directly onto the surface water or into the drainage
canals. The black water water from toilets flows either to a septic tank or is discharged onto the surface
water as well. In 2011, 67% of the households had a septic tank35. Most of these septic tanks leak into the
ground, and are not emptied because of the costs. Only 48% of the septic tanks is accessible for
maintenance35. Some septic tanks are private, and some are used by multiple households. Those without
toilet facilities use either the toilet of neighbouring relatives or collect it in a bucket and throw it into the
river. The data of the municipal sanitary officer show that in the year 2013 2% of the households did not
have a toilet.
The sanitation officer inspects the toilets in Hagonoy for hygiene. He also inspects locations with
complaints about hygiene or businesses like life stock farms, which decrease the water quality. The
agricultural water system for the fishponds, rice fields etc. is not separated from the urban water system.
Without proper sanitation of both the farms and the households, contamination from animal manure or
human waste is very likely.
During floods, toilets on the first floor are inaccessible or at least do not work. Those staying behind simply
dump their waste directly onto the surface water. Another problem related to flooding are the mixing of
surface water with water from the septic tanks.
35
Hagonoy Water District (2011)
61
9.2 Improving the sanitary conditions

To prepare the sanitary conditions for the next decades, some improvements have to be made. The HWD
already has some ideas to improve both the (drinking) water supply and the wastewater treatment. Their
plans are discussed together with some alternatives. They are also analysed for their flood resiliency.
9.2.1 Drinking water
If the HWD wants to discourage private wells for the production of drinking water by private companies,
they might have to reduce the water price for these companies. Also, safe drinking water is a commodity
that should be accessible to all. Cooperating with the companies providing the drinking water is essential
for that.
Moving to a different source of water is beneficial for the water quality. The current system is too
vulnerable for source contamination. Essentially, there are two sources available: surface water and
groundwater.
Surface water in general has a poorer quality and has higher quality and quantity fluctuations than
groundwater. Surface water needs extensive filtration, especially in the Philippines since monsoon rains
can cause high turbid water. A solution can be riverbank filtration, where water from the river first passes
about 30 meters of soil before it reaches the well. After that, aeration, filtration and disinfection steps have
to be applied.
Surface water is not only vulnerable to seasonal fluctuations, but also to climatic changes. Lower discharges
in dry periods will increase the saltwater intrusion in both the Angat River and the Pampanga River. It is
very costly to remove salt from drinking water. With possible increasing salt intrusion, building a large and
expensive drinking water treatment facility will be the wrong choice.
An alternative is groundwater, but abstracted from a different area away from the densely populated town.
A groundwater model should give information on whether the recharge of the aquifer is sufficient.
Otherwise, artificial recharge can be an option. This does not necessarily require wells pumping water into
the aquifer. In some places, the top clay layer can be substituted with more porous materials to improve
the speed of infiltration of rainwater in the wet season.
The quality of the source water is vital: the better the quality is before the treatment, the less extensive,
expensive and vulnerable the water supply is. Source protection is therefore crucial. Industries, life stock
and other polluting activities should be banned at the infiltration zone and the surroundings.
When treating groundwater, aeration is important to remove heavy metals and substances that cause
odour and smell like hydrogen sulphide and ammonia. After aeration, the water should go through a dry
filter with either sand or activated carbon as filter material to capture the heavy metals and for
biological breakdown of nutrients. Disinfection can be applied after the filter, with ultra-violet light (UVdisinfection) and post chlorination before it enters the network. UV-disinfection is cheap and very effective
against all pathogens, unlike chlorine. Extra aeration and an activated carbon filter are optional. The
treatment scheme is shown below in Figure 9-2.
62
Figure 9-2: Proposed treatment scheme for treatment of infiltrated groundwater
9.2.2 Wastewater
Currently, there are plans made for construction of septic tanks with two chambers of which the effluent
discharges onto the drainage channels on the sides of the road. The septic tanks will be made accessible36.
For most, the construction of such septic tanks is unaffordable or they prefer to spend their money on
something else. A possibility is investment in communal septic tanks, maintained by the HWD. The septic
tanks should be resilient to flooding. This can be achieved by blocking the overflow and the pipe connecting
the toilets during floods.
Excess sludge from the septic tanks should be removed every couple of years. This is only possible when
the septic tanks are easily accessible. A truck was proposed for the removal of the excess sludge from the
septic tanks which brings it to a treatment facility36.
An alternative for this treatment is a more resource oriented approach. Black water is rich in nutrients and
energy. When urine and faeces are split at the toilet, the nutrient rich urine and energy rich faeces can be
made profitable. Urine is sterile, and rich in phosphorous. It can therefore be the raw material for the
production of fertiliser, which on its turn can be used in agriculture and for the production of algae for
fishponds.
The urine and faeces can be collected in containers an put on the sides of the road. This requires fewer
investments compared to the septic tanks, and is therefore within reach of the whole population. It is also
more flood resilient, as the same system of collection and treatment can continue during floods. Each
participating household can get a discount on their water bill if they participate in the project.
The energy potential of faeces can be turned into CH4 gas via anaerobic treatment. This is the advantage of
anaerobic treatment in comparison with aerobic treatment: anaerobic treatment produces energy in the
form of bio-gas and produces less excess sludge while aerobic treatment consumes a lot of energy for
aeration and creates a lot of excess sludge.37
36
37
Hagonoy Water District (2011)

Metcalf & Eddy (2014)
63
Agriculture
Urine
Fertilizer
Toilet
Faeces
Biogas
(CH4)
Algae
production
Fuel
Electricity
Figure 9-3: Resource oriented sanitation by splitting urine and faeces
Splitting urine from the faeces is beneficial for the production of methane gas in the anaerobic reactor, but
it is not necessary. Anaerobic treatment is also possible for the system of collection of excess sludge from
the septic tanks. However, it will produce less bio-gas as part of the energy has already dissipated in the
septic tanks. Anaerobic reactors do not require a continuous process and can quickly respond after long
periods without feed. They are therefore more suitable for treating batches of wastewater than aerobic
reactors. However, anaerobic reactors are more sensitive to the composition of the wastewater.37
64
10 The Framework for Vulnerability

The following descriptions of vulnerability are based on the article Alternative water management options
to reduce vulnerability for climate change in the Netherlands by De Graaf, Van de Giesen and Van de Ven
(2007). Although it has been developed for the Netherlands, it is a good framework to look at the
vulnerability of the delta of the Pampanga and Angat. The general theory of the framework will be
explained first, after which the theory will be applied on the local situation of the delta.
10.1 What is vulnerability?

Vulnerability can be described as the ability to build a threshold against disturbances38. A low
vulnerability is vital for economic development. Figure 10-1 shows a scheme which describes the aspects of
a system in relation to its vulnerability. The explanation of the vulnerability scheme is based on the lectures
of Frans van de Ven (2012).
Figure 10-1: Effects of the system with pressures, thresholds, sensitivities and adaptabilities on the vulnerability (based on the
lecture slides of Van de Ven, 2013)
A company that wants to expand its business looks for the most suitable area to invest in. This can depend
on the skill of the local workforce, the companys origin but also the vulnerability of an area in relation to
natural hazards like flooding. Banks do the same thing when they grand credit to a business.
The hazards are part of the pressures. Examples of pressures are rainfall, discharges, tides, wind etc. The
chance of occurrence depends on the size of a particular pressure: the larger the size of the pressure, the
lower the chance of occurrence.
Whether a system fails at a certain size of the pressure depends on the level of the threshold: only when
the pressure exceeds the threshold level, the system fails. Examples of thresholds are dikes, hydraulic
structures, discharge capacities and land levels. One can imagine that a system with raised dikes and
increased discharge capacities of the rivers and streams has a lower chance of failure. The Netherlands
uses dike-ring systems. Within a dike ring system the chances of failure are equal, because the thresholds
38
De Graaf, Van de Giesen and Van de Ven (2007)
65
of which the dike ring consists are adjusted to the local pressures. The chances of exceeding lie between
once per 250 years and once per 10,000 years.
The chance of failure varies over an area. When mapping the chance of failure, this will result in a hazard
map.
Take into account that we are talking about chances of failure. This means that no threshold can ever
prevent that a system will fail. It can only reduce the chance of failure. When looking at vulnerability, we
should also think of what will happen when the system fails.
The company however, will not only look at the chance of failure, but also at the effects a hazard will have
on its business. In other words, the company will look at its risk. The risk depends on the chance of failure
and the damage sensitivity of the business to the hazard.
The damage sensitivity depends on the type of business and its dependency on the environment. How well
can the business cope with a hazard and how well can it recover? For example a farm can reduce its
damage sensitivity by growing alternative crops. A business can arrange its building in such a way that the
most vital things are the safest. This will make that the farm or the business can better cope with or more
easily recover from the hazard. The reason the roads in the delta are elevated is also because of the
damage sensitivity: they are vital for the infrastructure. The local and regional economies rely on these
roads. The damage sensitivity cannot be reduced, and therefore the threshold is increased by raising the
road.
The risk can also be mapped, by taking into account the sensitivity of the activities in the area. The result is
a risk map.
The vulnerability depends on the risk and the adaptability. A wooden shed is more adaptable than a
concrete building. The previous example of a farm being able to grow alternative crops is also an example
of adaptability.
There are four capacities which can be adjusted to decrease the vulnerability: Threshold capacity, coping
capacity, recovery capacity and adaptive capacity39.
10.2 Theory of the vulnerability framework

To assess the vulnerability of an area or system, it is split up into four capacities, following the theories of
De Graaf, Van de Giesen and Van de Ven (2007). The vulnerability framework can, besides flooding, also be
used for water quality and resources e.g. water supply.
Threshold capacity describes the ability of a society to prevent damage. Examples related to flooding are
dikes, discharge capacities etc. An example related to water supply is the construction of reservoirs to
reduce the effects of drought.
Coping capacity describes the ability to reduce the damage in case the threshold is exceeded. In relation to
flooding, this capacity can consist of emergency and evacuation plans, damage reducing measures,
creation of risk awareness and a clear organisational structure. Examples for water supply are emergency
39
De Graaf, Van de Giesen and Van de Ven (2007)
66
and backup water facilities and a distribution plan in case of drought. Coping capacity reduces the damage
during a hazard, because of earlier construction and organisation.
Recovery capacity is the ability of a society to recover to an equivalent state as before the hazard. Examples
for after flooding are the reconstruction of infrastructure, buildings, dikes etc. For water supply, one can
think of cleaning or rebuilding the distribution and drainage system and re-achieving safe supply and
sanitation. Also, the economic capacity and the political will and organisation to recover are part of this
capacity.
Adaptive capacity is the ability to adapt and adjust to future uncertainties. This requires a vision or a
prediction of future circumstances that can outbalance a currently good functioning system. Examples of
these circumstances are climate change, population growth and changes in land use.
This capacity is determined by the will of the residents and other actors to allow implementation of
solutions or to implement solutions themselves, the knowledge and perception of water related problems
and the contribution to it of the residents and decision makers, the locally available solutions and
resources, property rights (social capital) and the presence of relevant institutions.
10.3 Capacities in the Manila Bay Delta

The assessment of each capacity is based on the observations during the fieldwork and the interviews in
Hagonoy. Each capacity is discussed separately.
10.3.1 Threshold capacity
Increasing the threshold capacity in the delta is more an individual action than a community action:
Farmers and fishpond farmers raise their levies, businesses and houses are built artificial hills, about 1.5-2
meters higher than the surrounding and doorsteps are raised some doorsteps are more than two feet
high.
Whether a farm, household of business can increase the threshold capacity depends on their financial
strength. Most large houses in the south of Hagonoy are owned by large fishpond owners. These houses all
have a raised ground level. These households stay close to their businesses in the south of Hagonoy. Other
more wealthy families have already moved to higher grounds in the surrounding. This clearly has had an
impact on the distribution of the living conditions: poor living conditions and more densely populated
neighbourhoods in the south compared to the north.
Different government levels also work individually: raising the roads only reduces the flooding of the roads,
but increases the flooding of the other areas according to the locals especially the areas between the
elevated road and the river in Hagonoy. Riverbanks are also the responsibility of the land owners on the
shore. In fact, the whole river management and maintenance is not organized: the Labangan channel
hasnt been dredged since the construction of the Labangan Channel in the 70 and are all filled with
garbage and litter.
On the sides of the Pampanga estuary channel lay two dikes that should protect the surrounding area
during high water levels, as can be seen in Figure 10-2. However, the dikes do not form a ring, and water
can flow through the gaps in between. The offtake of the Hagonoy River is also a gap in the dike ring: there
are no dikes on the sides of the Hagonoy River and there is no hydraulic structure regulating the discharge
at the offtake.
67
West of the mouth of the Pampanga, the land subsidence is between 2 to 8 [cm/year]40. Some residents
and officials also indicate that land subsidence is a big problem and the cause of the increase in tidal floods
over the past years. Others however, refer to climate change and sea level rise cause. The result is an
increase in the chance or occurrence of tidal flooding, whether it is the decrease of the threshold level or
the increase in pressure.
Figure 10-2: The dikes on the side of the Pampanga estuary (marked red) stop at one point. There are smaller dikes that lie closer to
the river up to the start of the Hagonoy River (marked blue). There are no hydraulic structures to regulate the flow into the Hagonoy
River from the Pampanga. (Images/maps: Google, Cnes/Spot Image, DigitalGlobe, Landsat, 2014)
10.3.2 Coping capacity

Every governmental level has a disaster management council. Their coping plans are based on their own
experiences in the municipality. The MDRRMC (Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction Management Council)
operates at the municipal level. For tidal flooding, which mainly affects the southern barangays of
Hagonoy, there is a tidal calendar. Residents can plan their activities with the tidal calendar. In some places
the tidal floods have become so severe, that families have abandoned their houses, or their first floor.
The upstream flooding mainly affects the north of Hagonoy, both in duration and in water level. The
MDRRMC monitors the chances of flooding, helps with public relief and evacuation during the floods and
helps with the recovery after the flood. The organisational chart is given below in Figure 10-3.
40
68
Figure 10-3: The organisation of the Hagonoy MDRRMC as of September 2012.
The command centre or the body of the crab (coloured red in Figure 10-3) consists of the chairman the
mayor the action officers who coordinate the operations and the flood monitoring officer, who is in
contact with the flood forecasting centres of the Pampanga and Angat and the provincial disaster risk
management. They will provide information on the state of the water levels e.g.
normal/critical/decreasing or on the dam releases. On its turn, the MDRRMC warns the residents of a
coming flood. In practice, all know what can happen during the raining season. After watching the weather
forecast in the upstream areas, residents have often already predicted the floods themselves.
Below the command centre is the layer that manages the practical aspects during the flood (coloured
green in Figure 10-3). Communication within the MDRRMC is done by the action officer. The action officer
is also part of the call centre or communication and media relations team. They also keep in touch with
family members abroad almost every family has a relative working outside the Philippines and partially
rely on them financially and communicate with the barangay disaster risk reduction and management
council or BDRRMC. Communication can be difficult as mobile phone network is sometimes out of
operation during floods.
During a flood there are about 100-300 volunteers active. These are all managed by the personnel officer.
The finances for the operation and preparation, buying food and other relief goods and paying some of the
volunteers, are done by the finances officer. The logistics team has to distribute both the volunteers and
their food over the municipality. They also provide the teams with equipment when necessary.
The operation in the field is done by the teams that are coloured blue in Figure 10-3. The rescue operations
team consists of trained residents, which can evacuate elders, children, disabled or ill and take them to an
evacuation centre or the hospital.
In practice, most households have at least one member staying behind during a flood, while the children
and elder go to the evacuation centre or to relatives. Some go to their neighbours or family, if they have a
good relationship and a 2nd floor. Relief operations provide food and drinking water to those in need. The
municipality has a stock of food prepared for times of flood. A large number of residents in Hagonoy are
day labourers, like tricycle drivers, who spend what they have earned on the same day. Stores are either
69
closed or have become very expensive during floods. Those without savings therefore depend on the relief
operations team.
Evacuation centres provide refuge for those living in the neighbourhood. Most evacuation centres are
schools and covered basketball courts. The evacuation centre management is in charge of the centre and
keeps an eye on those staying there, which is necessary when a large number of people of people are living
close together under such stressful circumstances. Figure 10-4 gives a good idea of the situation in an
evacuation centre.
The medical operations team is also present at the evacuation centres and pays visits to those who stayed
at home. The team consists of the same municipal doctors, nurses and orderlies and volunteers who also
staff the municipal health offices. They also advise people to move to an evacuation centre or to a hospital.
The residents going to school or employed outside the municipality still have to commute during the
floods. For the lower water levels, there are elevated tricycles. These can be found especially in the south
of Hagonoy, which is affected most by the frequent tidal floods. The public transport system with busses
and jeepneys is replaced by bigger wheeled dumper trucks.
41
Figure 10-4: Evacuation centre in Calumpit in 2013 .
The public utilities coordination focuses on water distribution system, the electricity supply and telephone
connections. These utilities are still crucial during floods.
41
Rappler (2014)
70
10.3.3 Recovery capacity

The teams in Figure 10-3 that are coloured purple focus on the recovery after the flood. This involves the
damage assessment and infrastructure rehabilitation. Farmers can get some funds from the national
government for their lost crops, but these are hard to get and minor compared to the losses.
The houses in Hagonoy are also adjusted to the circumstances: there is hardly any plaster in the south on
the walls of the houses as there are a lot of tidal floods. It will simply be too costly to build a beautiful
house that should be redecorated after every tidal flood. Originally, the people in the delta lived in bamboo
houses on small poles that are easy to rebuild. Switching back to this building style is not an option.
After the floods, garbage that was taken up from the streets and from the canals has ended up on the
streets, in gardens, houses and buildings. This also requires organised communal actions, as there is
normally no garbage collection system.
Some fishponds are also adjusted to improve the coping capacity: fishponds with breached dams have
placed nets inside. An extra upside is that the fishpond is now also a buffer for collection of water. A
downside is that the waste the fish produce affects the environment.
10.3.4 Adaptive capacity
At this moment, the dikes do not provide adequate protection for the land lying behind it. Since the dikes
are currently the highest points of the area, they are the best place to build a house. When the dike system
has to be adapted to cope with changed pressures or increased standards the houses have to be removed.
This was also the reason why the dikes on the sides of the Pampanga Estuary could not be extended: the
residents on the shores of the Pampanga did not want to move away and blocked the construction of the
dike.
The same thing is true for the canals: on the inner corners where there has been enough sediment
deposited, locals have built their house. When these canals have to be adapted to increase the discharge
capacity, these houses have to be removed.
The farmers that are able to switch from rice to fishponds or to other more flood resilient crops like specific
types of grass, also made use of their adaptive capacity. However, salt water fishponds might be hard to
turn back into rice paddies.
10.4 Conclusions and recommendations

A water system that has a low vulnerability and is sustainable and resilient should not only pay attention on
high dikes and hydraulic structures. These measures are only the first step to decrease the vulnerability.
Implementing and improving these hydraulic structures increases the threshold capacity. The threshold
capacity depends on the weakest link: only when the whole system of thresholds has been well-planned
and implemented, it reduces the chance of failure. This requires involvement of representatives from all
governmental levels. The decisions should not be implemented from top down, but the higher
governmental levels should involve the municipal engineers and planners since they know their area best.
What improves the situation for one community can worsen the situation for the other. The decision of the
municipalities to work together is a good step since building threshold capacity is most efficient when done
on a large scale.
The resiliency of the local population is something to cherish: if the chances of flooding are reduced,
resiliency remains important. The municipalities seem to be well prepared for situations like flooding, and
71
this will still be important in the future. Of course, the physical situation as it is now is not something to
cherish.
However, not all are able to cope with the situation: some farms could not cope with or recover after the
floods. Rice fields are abandoned and the wealthy residents either move to a different location or increase
their own threshold strength by living on an artificial hill. With increased wealth the damage sensitivity also
increases.
The budget for the municipalities is too low for a good recovery capacity. The quicker the response, the
faster the situation returns to an equivalent state and the less damage will remain in the future.
The future circumstances are hard to predict. Increasing the adaptive capacity in the delta requires a long
term view and good spatial planning. For spatial planning cooperation, awareness and institutional strength
are important to prevent individuals from building on the wrong places. The hydraulic structures should
allow for adjustments in the future.
The basis for economic growth is the reduction of vulnerability. When the vulnerability of the area has
been reduced, it becomes more interesting for investments. Lying in between Clark airport in Angeles and
the capital Manila, the area has a good potential for economic development.
72
11 Conclusion
Serious water related problems exist in the Pampanga delta. These problems are not expected to decrease,
but rather to increase. We believe the Pampanga delta requires maintenance, restructuring or a
combination. Complete restructuring is an option which might not be economically viable.
This delta is a complicated, interconnected system. Work on the delta can be done either by local trial and
error or by a complete system analysis. Trial and error has most chance to result in error, as what will be
a solution for some, will result in a problem for others. Thereby, individuals have different capabilities to
implement measures. Cooperation is the key. To perform system analysis, serious investments will have to
be made by the whole community, which will not show immediate results.
Primary attention should be given to hydraulic modelling of the flooding, as the problems are of today and
ask for ad hoc measures. A simple first model setup has been made using SOBEK. The vital ingredient is a
high resolution elevation model, which was not available (to us). This is because tidal flooding is a matter of
centimetres, as the tidal range is relatively small. Profiles of the main rivers and tidal boundary conditions
of depth variation have been obtained. With these ingredients and a small river flow assumption, a virtual
reality model could be constructed in which solutions for tidal flooding can be tested.
River discharges require additional hydrological research. Rainfall measurements have been analysed, but
little effort has been made for the conversion from rain to discharge, since ground measurements are
essential. They are available in the form of seemingly reliable hourly water heights, but measurements
should be taken to convert them to river discharges. Several of these gauging stations also measure tidal
influence and therefore cannot be used to compute discharges, so it is advisable to gauge higher up in the
smaller branches of the catchment.
A secondary issue with large impact is the gradual conversion from rice fields to fish ponds. This seems to
be partially forced by flooding and salt intrusion, which can both be expected to increase in the current
state. For another part this conversion seems driven by economic interests, since the fish is economically
viable. The process can be observed by satellites, as the two land types can be distinguished quite clearly.
Flood reduction measures, like potential dredging, will significantly influence the salt intrusion and might
accelerate this process from gradual to sudden impact.
Another secondary issue is sanitation. The current source of the water supply lies within the urban area.
Groundwater abstraction from an urban area with leaking septic tanks poses possible health risks. The
uncertainties of the future quality and quantity of the surface waters make that surface water treatment is
too risky. Groundwater abstraction from a protected area might be a better option, as it requires little and
inexpensive treatment. Public health risks increase during floods because of the poor water quality.
Improving the sewage system will not only have a large effect on the quality of the surface water, but also
gives chances of resource recovery.
73
74
12 References
1. Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), CTI Engineering International co., LTD. & Nippon
Koei co., LTD. (2011) The study on integrated water resources management for poverty alleviation
and economic development, Volume I: Summary, National Water Resources Board, The Republic of
the Philippines.
2. The Republic of the Philippines Ministry of Public Works and Highways National Irrigation
Administration, Feasibility Report on the Pampanga Delta Development Project, Main Text,
February 1982, JICA, Tokyo, Japan
3. Savenije, H.H.G., 2007, Lecture notes CT5450 Hydrology of Catchments, Rivers and Deltas, Water
Resources Section, Delft University of Technology, Delft
4. Savenije, H.H.G., Salinity and Tides in Alluvial Estuaries, Second Completely Revised Edition, 2012;
5. Ahern M., Kovats R.S., Wilkinson P., Few R. & Matthies F. (2005) Global Health Impacts of Floods:
Epidemiologic Evidence. Epidemiologic Reviews 27, 36-46
6. Hagonoy Water District and The Philippine Water Revolving Fund Support Program (2011)
Hagonoy, Bulacan. Septage Management Project, Feasibility Study. Proposal for USAID.
7. Van Lier J.B., Mahmoud N. & Zeeman G. (2008) Anaerobic Wastewater Treatment. Biological
Wastewater Treatment: Principles Modelling and Design. Chapter 16. IWA Publishing.
8. Van Lier J.B., Rietveld L.C., Verberk Q.J.C. & Spanjers H. (2011) Fundamentals of drinking water and
wastewater treatment. Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil engineering and
Geosciences, Sanitary Engineering Department.
9. Metcalf & Eddy (2014) Wastewater engineering: treatment and resource recovery. Fifth Edition. Mc
Graw Hill.
10. De Moel P.J., Verberk J.Q.J.C. & van Dijk J.C. (2006). Drinking water- Principles and practices. World
Scientific
11. Shimi A.C., Parvin G.A., Biswas C. & Shaw R. (2010) Impact and adaptation to flood, a focus on
water supply, sanitation and health problems of rural community in Banladesh. Disaster Prevention
and Management 19, 298-313
12. Verberk J.Q.J.C., Van der Meer W.G.J., Van der Hoek J.P., Heijman S.G.J., De Ridder D. , Grefte A., P.
Andeweg (2011) Drinking water treatment. Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil
engineering and Geosciences, Sanitary Engineering Department.
13. WHO (2011). Guidelines for Drinking- water Quality. Fourth Edition .World Health Organization
Press, Geneva.
14. De Graaf R., Van de Giesen N. & Van de Ven F. (2009) Alternative water management options to
reduce vulnearbility for climate change in the Netherlands. Nat. Hazards 51, 407-422
15. Van de Ven F. (2013) Lecture slides Water Management in Urban Areas. Delft University of
Technology, Faculty of Civil engineering and Geosciences, Section of Water Resources
Management.
16. Provincial Planning and Development Office (August, 2009); Province of Bulacan - Provincial
Development and Physical Framework Plan - Flooding Map; DENR Mines and Geosciences Bureau
17. Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA, 2013)
http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/, Applied on March 28, 2014
75
18. Philippine Statistics Authority National Statistical Coordination Board; (June, 2013)
http://www.nscb.gov.ph/activestats/psgc/NSCB_PSGC_SUMMARY_2013Jun30.pdf , Applied on
March 28, 2014
19. Alliance for coastal technologies (2013);
http://www.act-us.info/sensor_list.php?cat=Groundwater&type=Physical , Applied on March 28,
2014
20. PRFFWC (2013); http://prffwc.webs.com/, Applied on March 28, 2014
21. Deltares (2013); http://www.deltares.nl/nl/software/108282/sobek-suite , Applied on March 28,
2014
22. QGIS (2014); http://www.qgis.nl/, Applied on March 28, 2014
23. Google Earth (2014)
24. United States Geographical Survey (USGS, 2013); http://www.usgs.gov/, Applied on March 28,
2014
25. NASA (2014); http://www2.jpl.nasa.gov/srtm/, Applied on March 28, 2014
26. Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (NOAH, 2014); http://noah.dost.gov.ph/, Applied
on March 28, 2014
27. Rappler (2014); www.rappler.com , Applied on March 28, 2014
28. Philippine Foundation for Vaccination (2013); www.philvaccin.org, Applied on March 28, 2014
29. Inquirer; Mapping flood hazards goes high tech; Inquirer.net (December, 2012), Applied on March
28, 2014
76
13 Appendices
Appendix 1
Spatial scope of work
On the following map the eight coastal municipalities of the alliance are indicated.
Figure 13-1: Map of coastal municipalities in alliance
77
78
Appendix 2
Flooding map
42
This flooding map is obtained from the Provincial Planning and Development Office (August, 2009) and
roughly visualises extreme flooding heights in the Pampanga delta.
Figure 13-2: Flooding map Bulacan Province

42
Provincial Planning and Development Office (August, 2009)
79
80
Appendix 3
Tidal curves in Manila Bay43
This map of the PRFFWC is used as comparison to the findings of this project.
Figure 13-3: Tide curves for reference stations

43
PRFFWC
81
82
Appendix 4
Pressure changes and tidal ranges in Pampanga mouth and Sulipan

2014/01/05-2014/01/21
Here, the obtained absolute water pressure changes in the Pampanga River during the given period are
shown. See Excel-file for values.
Unfortunately, this appendix is not publicly available. For more information on these
Figure 13-4: Tidal ranges obtained from

diver measurements
83
84
Appendix 5
Pressure changes during measuring interval in Pampanga mouth and

Sulipan 2014/01/06
Here, the obtained absolute water pressure changes in the Pampanga River in the 3-hour measuring
interval are shown. See Excel-file for values.
Figure 13-5: Tidal influence

on depth measuring interval
85
86
Appendix 6
Measurements in Pampanga mouth and Sulipan 2014/01/06
Figure 13-6: Measurements in Pampana mouth and Sulipan
87
88
Appendix 7
Depth measurements in Pampanga 2014/01/06
See graph below for the measured depths and calculated flow profiles of the Pampanga River. See Excel-file
for values.
Figure 13-7: Depths Pampanga River
Figure 13-8: Flow profile areas Pampanga River
89
90
Appendix 8
Width variations in Pampanga
See graph below for the calculated width variations of the rivers Pampanga and Angat. See Excel-file for
values.
Figure 13-9: Width variations Pampanga River
91
92
Appendix 9
Table of depth measurements in Angat 2014/01/07, not corrected for

tide
Figure 13-10: Depth measurements in Angat River
93
94
Appendix 10
Profile measurements in Angat 2014/01/07, not corrected for tide
See graphs below for the measured depths and calculated flow profiles of the Angat River. See Excel-file for
values.
Figure 13-11: Depths Angat River
Figure 13-12: Flow profile areas Angat River
95
96
Appendix 11
Depth measurements in Calumpit 2014/01/09, not corrected for tide
Figure 13-13: Depth measurements in Calumpit
97
98
Appendix 12
Depth measurements in Calumpit2014/01/09, not corrected for tide
See graphs below for the measured depths of the connection between the rivers Pampanga and Angat. See
Excel-file for values.
Figure 13-14: Depths Pampanga (Calumpit)
Figure 13-15: Depths Calumpit South
Figure 13-16: Depths Calumpit North-East
Figure 13-17: Depths Calumpit to Angat
Figure 13-18: Depths Angat (Calumpit)
99
100
Appendix 13
Cross sections Hagonoy River, tidal influence slightly visible
See graphs below for the tape-measured depths of the Hagonoy River. See Excel-file for values.
Figure 13-19: Depths Hagonoy River (B022)
101
102
Appendix 14
See QGIS-map
Average depths Pampanga and Angat

44
below for the calculated average depths per profile during the measuring interval.
Figure 13-22: Average depths River system (Images/maps: Google, TerraMetrics, 2014)
44
Tool: QGIS
103
104
Appendix 15
Hydrodynamic modelling
This appendix shows images which further clarify the inputs and outcomes of the hydrodynamic modelling
process45.
Figure 13-23: SOBEK 1D model on GIS layer (Deltares)
45
SOBEK
105
Figure 13-24: DEM Pampanga River Basin with 1D model in the Pampanga Delta (Deltares)
Figure 13-25: Legend SOBEK 2D model (units: [m])
106
Appendix 16
IDF curves rainfall stations Pampanga River Basin
In this appendix, the intensity-duration-frequency curves of ten rainfall stations are given. The information
is based on rainfall data acquired from 1974 until 2008. On average, 13% of the rainfall data is missing over
this period for the ten stations.
Sapang Buho
350
300
T=2
250
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-26: IDF curves Sapang Buho
Zaragoza
300
250
T=2
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-27: IDF curves Zaragoza
107
Papaya
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
T=2
T=5
T=10
T=20
T=50
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-28: IDF curves Papaya
San Isidro
300
250
T=2
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-29: IDF curves San Isidro
108
Arayat
300
250
T=2
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-30: IDF curves Arayat
Candaba
350
300
T=2
250
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-31: IDF curves Candaba
109
Sibul Spring
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
T=2
T=5
T=10
T=20
T=50
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-32: IDF curves Sibul Spring
Sulipan
350
300
250
T=2
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-33: IDF curves Sulipan
110
Ipo Dam
500
400
T=2
300
T=5
200
T=10
T=20
100
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-34: IDF curves Ipo Dam
San Rafael
350
300
250
T=2
200
T=5
150
T=10
100
T=20
50
T=50
0
0
10
12
T=100
Duration (days)
Figure 13-35: IDF curves San Rafael
111
112
Appendix 17
Salt intrusion
Phase lag equation:

( )
=7.0282e-05
c=6.25
b=65000
=0
Geometry tide relation:
( )
=4
=1
H=1.25
113
114
Appendix 18
Fish ponds in project area
The figure below is an overview of the fish ponds in the project area of eight municipalities. Fish ponds in
the south-east are not shown. This due to the fact that there only information in shape files was available
about from the Pampanga River Basin. The south-east of the project area is not in this river basin.
Figure 13-36: Fish ponds in project area (only for Pampanga River Basin) (Images/maps: Google, TerraMetrics, 2014)
115
116
Appendix 19
Validation land use
This survey is held to create input for validation of the land use in the areas around Hagonoy and
Paombong. By means of 8 questions, farmers or those living close to the farms on certain specific locations
are asked about the land use and the (eventual) change over the years.
Questions:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
What is produced on this land?

Has this situation always been like this?
When has the land use changed?
Who is the owner of the land?
Why has the land use changed?
Did you/the land owners ask permission for the land use change?
How did you/the farmers learn to deal with the new type of land use?
How do you see the future of the land use in this area?
Calumpit Hagonoy
Date: December 20, 2013
Interviewed by: Joris de Vos & Lorrie Mia San Pedro
Waypoint 601
1. In this area, there are mainly rice fields and some fish ponds.
2. There have been no significant changes in last 20 years in land use.
3. n/a
4. Some farmers are tenants, some harvest in their own land.
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. There is a possibility that there will be fish ponds here in the future, because there are a lot of
floods here.
Waypoint 602
1. There are only rice fields in this area.
2. There have been no significant changes in last 20 years in land use.
3. n/a
4. We are owners of the land.
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. In the future I expect lesser harvest because of the floods. I think we have to stop growing rice in
the future.
Waypoint 603
1. There are rice fields here, duck raising ponds and some small fish ponds.
2. Before there were pure rice fields, they could harvest three times per year before but now only
once a year.
3. The land use has changed 4 years ago, at that time three harvests per year were possible.
117
4. Most farmers here are tenants.

5. The land use changes because of floods and climate change. The small fish ponds were created
because we needed soil to put up a business along the road.
6. We had permission for the land use change.
7. The government organized a seminar for the farmers to teach them how to do something when
the water in the rice fields is still there after the rain or how to get additional income.
8. I think that this land will be mainly fish pond after 20 years. The elevation of the land is 1.5m below
sea level.
Waypoint 604
1. There are rice fields, fish ponds and vegetable fields.
2. Before, there were only pure rice fields here.
3. The land use took place more or less 15 years ago.
4. The owners of the land here harvest in their own land.
5. During high tide, sea water stays on the land. This is not good for the rice.
6. Yes, we did.
7. We came up with fish ponds because the rice fields harvest less now than before. We dig the land
to make a fish pond of it.
8. We think that this land will change, because before there were pure rice fields and now it is a
combination of rice fields and fish ponds. I think that the rice fields will disappear.
Waypoint 605
1. There are lots of fish ponds in this area.
2. Before there were no rice fields, just fish ponds.
3. n/a
4. Farmers here are tenants.
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. n/a
Waypoint 606
1. There are pure fish ponds here.
2. Before it was full of rice fields.
3. The land use change took place 13 years ago.
4. Former mayor Cruz owns a lot of fish ponds, we are tenant here.
5. The reason for the land use change is climate change: fresh water becomes salty.
6. n/a
7. There was a seminar about raising fishes in sea water.
8. In 20 years, the situation will be the same here: fishponds.
Waypoint 607
1. There are pure fish ponds, no more rice fields here.
2. Before, it was full of rice fields here.
3. 20 years ago was it changed.
4. There are tenants here.
118
5. The land use is changed because of salt in the water. Rice cant grow anymore because of that.
6. The owner decides what to do in the land.
7. The farmers come up to do fish ponds because they learn from others that it can harvest more
than rice fields.
8. We dont think that the agriculture will change here. The fish ponds will stay because of the salty
water.
Waypoint 608
1. Agriculture here is mainly fish ponds.
2. Before it was a combination of rice fields and fish ponds, but mostly rice fields.
3. This situation was 20-30 years ago.
4. We are the owner of the lands.
5. The land has changed because of flooding and because of the fact that houses are increasing here.
6. Yes.
7. People here come up in fish ponds because of their parents.
8. There is no chance that fish ponds turn back in rice field because of the floods every year.
Waypoint 609
1. There are just fish ponds here.
2. Before, the land here was used for rice fields.
3. We talk about 25 years ago when rice was planted here.
4. The owners of the land for fish ponds are the ones who manage it.
5. Because of the high tide, sea water enters the rice fields and it becomes fish pond. There could be
no irrigation. High tide lasts for one to two months.
6. No.
7. We copy the idea of raising fish in the ponds because we learn that it is easier to harvest than rice.
8. There is no chance to change the land use to go back to rice fields again.
Waypoint 610
2. Before, there was a lot of rice here.
3. This was 20-25 years ago.
4. n/a
5. It is because after the Mount Pinatubo eruption, ashes fall on the river and the river becomes
shallow. Fresh water does not enter here anymore. The river also becomes smaller because of the
increase of the houses.
6. The owner is the one who is responsible for the rice fields which become fish ponds.
7. n/a
8. There is no chance that the fields turn back in rice fields. Fish ponds will be here in 10-20 years
with higher harvests.
Waypoint 611
2. n/a
3. Since 1973 (since I have been here) is it fish pond.
4. n/a
119
5.
6.
7.
8.
Garbage is the cause that the river becomes shallow.

n/a
n/a
The status of agriculture here will not change in the next 10 or 20 years.
Waypoint 612
2. n/a
4. n/a
5. There have been no land use changes here.
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. I think there will be no change for the next 10 to 20 years, because we are close to the sea.
Calumpit Paombong
Date: December 20, 2013
Interviewed by: Frans Willem Hamer & Elmer Capiral Libiran
Waypoint 701
1. In this area, there is rice twice a year. On the other side of the road, there is vegetable.
2. This situation has been for ever since I know.
3. n/a
4. There are different land owners (1/2 ha)
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. Sometimes there are floods during extreme conditions. Sometimes we lose 30/40% of our harvest
due to that.
Waypoint 702
1. There is rice produced on this land. There are also some residences.
2. The residences are there since the canal moved away from the river.
3. n/a
4. n/a
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. There are no houses flooded since the dyke of 1970. Fields are flooding, there is no drainage
possible if there are heavy rains, because of the high level of the Angat. There is water of the Angat
canal in the irrigation canals.
Waypoint 703
1. Here, peanuts are grown one time per year, on 1,5 ha or one time rice in a year (this switched
every year). There are also vegetables grown here.
2. There is rice only once a year because there is no irrigation and there is no rice from December till
May due to salty water.
120
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
n/a
The owner of this land is the farmer.
There is only water for rice coming from rain. We stopped irrigation because of salt in 1991.
n/a
n/a
There are more floods, like this September, which is not normal for this region.
Waypoint 704
1. There is blue grass grown here for one year. For the rest other vegetables like eggplant, tomatoes.
2. Before, it was rice and sugar cane.
3. 5/6 years ago, the land use has changed.
4. We are owners of 4000 m3.
5. In May, June till November we can get water from the river, after that it is salty. The water comes
from a depth of 13 meters.
6. We did not ask permission for the land use change.
7. Friends and neighbours taught us here how to deal with the new land use.
8. This year, we lost a lot of vegetables. Thats why we are growing blue grass right now. This wont
die due to flooding.
Waypoint 705
1. Now there are fishponds in this area. Harvests are large shrimps, milkfish and other fish twice a
year. There are also some vegetables. This is really the border of vegetables and fish ponds.
2. It was rice before, now the land is 0.5 meters deeper.
3. This situation was in the 1990s.
4. The farmers are the owners of the land.
5. The land use is changed due to the salt intrusion.
6. n/a
7. Farmers here learned from the agricultural office of the municipality. If the fish is 3 months old, we
harvest before the flood. The warnings come from TV.
8. n/a
Waypoint 706
1. On this farm, there are cocks for cock fighting right now.
2. Before, these fields were rice fields. The higher land is due to the soil coming out of the fish ponds.
The fish ponds around were rice fields before.
3. The fields changed a long time ago due to salty water.
4. n/a
5. There are check gates built here to make sure the salt water cannot go in. However, this is bad for
the flow in times of high discharges. Water cannot go out. There has not been any dredging for
more than 40/50 years. Now you can stand in the water here, earlier not.
6. Houses are built in the river here, no permission was asked for this.
7. n/a
8. n/a
Waypoint 707
1. The land here is used for fish farming: 1.6 ha. Milkfish, shrimp and lobster is grown here.
121
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
It has been rice before.

This was in the early 90.
The owners of the fishponds are the owners of the land.
The land use is changed because of salt water. Our neighbours also changed in these times.
n/a
There was a guy who had a fish pond before it became salty here. It gave him a lot of profit so that
it the reason that we also changed to fish ponds.
8. If water muddy floods enter the fish ponds, the shrimps die. When the flooding comes, 100% dies.
Nets are around the fish ponds and we listen to warnings from the media. Putting nets takes 1 day
for 50 yards.
Waypoint 708
1. This is a rice field between many fish ponds.
2. n/a
3. n/a
4. n/a
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. n/a
Waypoint 709
1. There are fish ponds here.
2. Before it was rice. The whole area switched at the same time.
3. The conversion took place late 80s begin 90s.
4. Farmers are land owners, this farmer has 1.2 ha.
5. The change took place because of salt intrusion.
6. No permission needed for land use change.
7. Relatives and neighbours taught us how to deal with the new land use.
8. We expect more problems. In 2012/2013m there was 50/60 cm water in this place. Before there
were no problems. We use nets for protecting the fish.
Waypoint 710
1. There are fish ponds here: milk fish, tilopia, shrimp and big crabs are harvested.
2. Before, it was rice.
3. The land use change was 5 years ago. Other farms around changed 20 years ago.
4. n/a
5. Because of the salty water and high river discharges, the land was hard to cultivate.
6. n/a
7. For the switching, we go help from the government.
8. This year and last year, there was 20 cm of flooding. We protect the fish from swimming away by
big nets.
Waypoint 711
1. There are fishponds here. A farmer here has 3 ha. There is only milk fish.
2. Before, there was mangrove vinegar. They are still around however.
122
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Fish ponds changed 30 years ago.

n/a
n/a
There is permission needed for the land use change.
They are trained by experience.
During flooding of 2011 and 2012, fish went out. We didnt use nets because we were not
prepared like everyone. We used sandbags to protect the fish.
Malolos Hagonoy
Date: January 18, 2014
Interviewed by: Joris de Vos & Lorrie Mia San Pedro
Waypoint 344
1. In this area, there are fish ponds.
2. Before it was rice here.
3. Before the year 2000, there was grown rice here.
4. n/a
5. The reason for the land use change is the salt intrusion.
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. The people in this area think that the area could turn back in rice fields if there is not so much salt
water here during times of the year. At the moment this is not possible because of the many
floods.
Waypoint 345
1. There are fish ponds here: there are milk fish, tilapia, prawns and crabs.
2. Before it was rice here.
3. The land use has changed 35 years ago (around 1980).
4. The landowner is the Magsakay family.
5. The reason for the land use change is the salt intrusion.
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. The man here thinks that the rice cannot come back here anymore. The water from Manila Bay
doesnt flow on its proper way. The area is full of structures now so the any way for the water is to
flow into their land.
Waypoint 346
1. There is no agriculture in this area: no rice paddies and also no fish ponds. Most of the people are
tricycle driver here. The land is mainly filled with houses.
2. Ever since the area here doesnt have any rice fields or fish ponds.
3. n/a
4. n/a
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. n/a
123
Waypoint 347
1. There are fish ponds here. In the fish ponds, there is milk fish, tilapia, and prawns. There are also
some rice fields here.
2. There has been no land use change here before. The people who live here say that the floods
before (10 years ago) were very high, about 1.5 m above land level, but now there are no floods
any more.
3. n/a
4. n/a
5. n/a
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. n/a
Waypoint 348
1. There are fish ponds and rice fields here.
2. The situation was different. People could grow rice in places that are now fish pond.
3. The situation changed 10 years ago.
4. n/a
5. Because of the floods, there is no possibility to grow rice any more.
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. The land that was used for rice fields are now used for construction of buildings. So they cannot
turn back in rice fields any more. The fish ponds are now so salty that there is no possibility for the
rice to grow again they think.
Waypoint 349
1. There are only fish ponds in this area. In the fish ponds, there is milk fish, tilapia, mud fish and cat
fish.
2. Before it was all rice fields here.
3. The land use change was 8-10 years ago. The land use change was not gradually. Every fields was
changed in the same year.
4. n/a
5. The reason for the land use change is that the water levels in the land are too high for the rice to
grow and also the water is salty.
6.
7. n/a
8. The people here dont think that the fish ponds can turn back in rice fields. The water gets saltier in
the years they expect.
Additional question: How much money does it cost to change a hectare of rice field into fish pond?
Answer: It costs about 30,000/100m2. This means that it costs 3,000,000/ha to change the land use.
Converted to Euros this is 48,902/ha.
Waypoint 350
1. There are fish ponds in this place.
2. n/a
124
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
Waypoint 351
1. There are rice fields and fish ponds here.
2. Before, most of the land was used for rice production.
3. Most of the land use change was 10-15 years ago.
4. n/a
5. The reason for the land use change the water that gets saltier.
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. People here think it is impossible to convert the fish ponds back to rice, because many former rice
paddies are quarried to become deeper to grow fish.
Waypoint 352
1. There are rice fields and fish ponds here.
2. Before, most of the land was used for rice production.
3. The land use change was more or less 10 years ago.
4. n/a
5. The reason for the land use change is the water that gets saltier, because the Pampanga delta gets
narrower.
6. n/a
7. n/a
8. The persons here think that the fish ponds cannot turn back in rice again because the land is dug to
become deeper to grow fish.
125
126
Appendix 20
Interview Mr. Angel Lontok Cruz
Part 1 - Date: December 11, 2013 - Interviewed by: Frans Willem Hamer & Joris de Vos
Can you tell something about yourself?
I have been a major for six year, and I found out that there is a lot to do in this world. My farm is an
example of how I created my love for the nature. I have chickens, rice and fish. I like it to use my products
from the farm in my restaurant. Before I have been a manager in this town and I lived in the Netherlands.
Further I am involved in the development of this community. How can I as manager, farmer, major
contribute to my community? Actually I am something like a social entrepreneur.
What are the most important problems in this area?
Water management is this most important problem here. I showed the director of the development bank
at my farm that there were mainly rice paddies. Now this is not the case anymore. This is a result of last
years, the river floods. 450 ha of the town is back to nature right now. Farmers have to deal with two
things, one: farmers cannot plant the rice because its too wet, and two: farmers dont want to work
anymore, because every time you plant its a loss. This is coupled to the economic development of the
area.
Mr. Santos told us about the disaster risk and management team to look during floods whats going to
happen on which scale. Did you bring something from the Netherlands? Or how did you do it?
Its mainly a result of what happened here. I experienced many floods (4/5). As a major you are responsible
for the whole community and I wanted to protect this community. Because of our experience of floods, we
could make a plan about how we can better operate during the next calamity. This management team is
mainly set up because of our experience.
How was it before?
Before it was every man for himself. The government (provincial and municipal government), NGOs helped
us. Relief goods were shared, but no real emergency services were delivered.
We learned to deal with high threshold capacities in the Netherlands. Other capacities are coping capacity,
recovery capacity and adaptive capacity. How do you deal with these capacities?
We dont know how to adapt our systems to increase the threshold capacity. The politics makes it difficult.
Thats what we are not strong about. However our population has a high coping capacity. Food supply is
well arranged. We have all the villages, and we split the town up in 5 sectors. In the north, we have the
most river floods. We know what should be the supply in emergency times for families here. We have
priority zones 1,2,3,4 and 5. We cannot bring all that food of course, however we know what we have to
buy and store for these people. Coping system is good. If people wont go to strange and dangerous places
this is good. Recovery capacity should come from our people, but also from higher levels. Recovery of
bridges, roads and other infrastructure could not be our task, we simply cant pay that. We can only
recover small projects like a fish paddy or so. Maybe our political system doesnt allow to bring higher
threshold capacities to the area. We have elections every 3 years. This time span is simply too short to
implement important projects like increasing the threshold capacity of our system.
Who are involved in the politics here? Is it the top layer of the society?
This is an interesting question. The top layer here is not the highest educated layer. Many of our top
political persons dont have the knowledge from an academic educations to broaden their knowledge.
127
Educational level is a problem here in politics. Our political persons mainly come up with populist solutions
for problems. Not science/knowledge based solutions.
The coping system during floods, is this the case for neighbouring municipalities too?
Yes, neighbouring municipalities also have implemented this coping system in the last years. There is a
disaster council for several political layers. Every municipality has their own coping plans because of their
own experiences. However, we implemented an alliance with our neighbouring municipalities in 2009.
There are all vulnerable for floods. The Dutch ambassador was present here as this implementation. The
majors were symbolic representatives. The main work is done by the municipal engineer or planner. How
can we develop plans to prevent floods and how can we fight water pollution. It is all related to water
management, but also related to disaster management.
Thinking about results from the alliance with the municipalities, is there already something developed?
No, I am the pusher of this alliance. The fact that you are here is a result of this alliance.
How is the building of houses arranged in this area, for example building in a river bank?
This is all arranged by the inhabitants itself.
How about land use? We walked on your terrain? The rights of the land: do people have their own piece of
land here?
Yes, they have their own piece of land and they can do with it what they want. There is a plan to monitor
the land, but this should be worked out better. The plan is more a wish. It is a development without a plan
right now. We think we cant reach the optimum according to the plans. The land use is not optimal. For
example: someone could have salt water fish here and his neighbour is growing rice on his paddy. This was
the start of my initiative: I have to arrange something here! I thought it was reasonable to make land use
plans about agriculture and planning, but it really is a difficult thing. Collaboration between rice farmers
was there several years ago. However, since the transition from rice to fish took place, this collaboration is
gone. When I came back from Netherlands in 1996, we were growing rice. However, 6 years ago we
stopped with growing rice. The problem is the water level on the farms but also the saline groundwater.
How do you let water into your field and how does the water system in this area look like?
We do it via sluices and canals, but it also comes from the ground. The water in this area becomes much
more saline. Because of deepening and straightening of specified canals, the salt water comes in much
faster than earlier.
How did the shift from rice to fish take place? What are the signs for these shifts.
The shift from rice to fish is gone gradually. I experienced in 1996 that fish farmers had rice growing tools
on their lot. You can clearly see on some lots that rice agriculture took place. Rice tools are a clear mark.
Its clear to see that rice agriculture took place. Also the names of the towns tell something about the
history. A certain name could mean something related to rice field while fishponds are there instead of
rice. This is also an indication. The transition from rice to fish does not go gradually. Rice only has shallow
water levels, while fish ponds demand bigger depths. Other indications for changes to fish ponds is that
you see more people on the street. People lose their jobs because fish ponds dont need much labor
instead of rice.
128
Go people to school here to determine their own future or are they encouraged to do the same work as their
parents?
The educational system right now is that people with money go to college. However, for the big mass there
are not many professions to be taught. 8 out of 10 student finish lower school. 4 of 8 go further to high
school and finish it. 1 out of 10 initial students finishes college. These people are business man, engineers,
etcetera. Many people try to find work abroad because they can earn more money there. Many families (1
out of 8) have a family member working abroad. More or less 4000 people here in Hagonoy are employed
abroad. Foreign companies come to The Philippines to recruit people to work abroad. Most of the people
working abroad have a basic education. For example a young farmer here drives tricycle here or work in
the construction industries.
Do investors buy large areas of land here?
There are some large fish pond owners. These people have for example 500 ha fish ponds. You dont want
to know what they pay their workers. I think this amount is below 200 PHP.
Part 2 - Date: December 13, 2013 - Interviewed by: Frans Willem Hamer & Joris de Vos
How is the political system arranged here?
It is a too simple organized system. There is a village council with a head, after that the municipality with a
major, the province with the governor and council and the region which is not chosen. For the regional
level, a lot of bureaucracy is involved. There is a lot of bureaucracy involved if decisions have to be
implemented: decisions, policy etcetera. That is difficult here. In The Philippines, there are not political
parties. Its more that people come together to form a group before the elections start. Its pure to be
chosen. There are no political programs or principles. On national level, there are two parties: the first
party is the ruling party, the other one is the opposition. During elections, the mission of the parties is to
get chosen, not to show their views. Popular people are brought together to get the votes.
Is there are tasks structure in the governmental system?
For infrastructure, there are national roads and other infrastructure. My experience: the municipality has
experiences with infrastructure, but if the government has other priorities, the project of the municipality
is not implemented. Between the different governmental layers, there is no discussion. The little discussion
which is there, is not about water but mainly about roads and other infrastructure.
Is there during a water engineering issue like the building of the dikes along the Pampanga discussion with
the municipalities or is it more a top down process?
Its a top down discussion. Municipal planners or engineers should be more involved in these kind of
projects.
Is there regulation in the municipality here?
Yes there is a municipal officer. For example: I came back in 1996 and I wanted to know more about rice. I
talked about it under a mango tree with a neighbor farmer. I wondered where to get advice. He said that I
should go to the municipality. The advisers there said: you have to plant 1 ha instead of only 0.5. So I
thought it was easy to grow rice initially. There is not much information more to get. So I went to the
province and an institute called: The Philippine Rice Institute to learn more about rice. I went to seed
producers and other co operations afterwards. Also seminars are there now to learn more about rice.
About the change to fish ponds in this area, we get no help. All the farmers who changed from rice paddies
to fish ponds have thought about it by themselves. There is no official system regarding this.
129
130
*Advertisements

Manila Bay Delta Challenge Main Report Website

Caricato da

Informazioni sul documento

Copyright

Formati disponibili

Condividi questo documento

Condividi o incorpora il documento

Opzioni di condivisione

Hai trovato utile questo documento?

Questo contenuto è inappropriato?

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

Manila Bay Delta Challenge Main Report Website

Caricato da

Copyright:

Formati disponibili

MANILA BAY DELTA CHALLENGE

MULTIDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH ON FLOOD PRONE AREAS IN

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

Multidisciplinary Research on Flood Prone Areas in

Multidisciplinary Project, TU Delft

Mr Evert de Boer (Filippijnengroep Nederland)

Prof. dr. ir. Nick van de Giesen (TU Delft)

Project group (TU Delft)

Joris de Vos Water Resources Management

Delft University of Technology

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Delft University of Technology

Bulacan State University

Royal Haskoning DHV

Development Bank of the Philippines

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Research goal ...................................................................................................................................... 3

Scope of work ..................................................................................................................................... 3

Approach of Research ...................................................................................................................... 5

Fieldwork and associated data assessment ........................................................................................ 5

Assessment of available data .............................................................................................................. 5

Formal stakeholders ........................................................................................................................... 7

Non-formal stakeholders .................................................................................................................... 8

River Profile Measurements .......................................................................................................... 11

Input Data Depth Measurements .................................................................................................. 11

Output River Profiles ...................................................................................................................... 15

Reliability of measurements and their corrections ........................................................................... 17

Qualitative description of bottlenecks and guidelines ...................................................................... 18

Recommendations, future activities and use of data ....................................................................... 20

Hydrodynamic modelling ............................................................................................................... 23

Introduction software ....................................................................................................................... 23

Model results and discussion ............................................................................................................ 24

Preliminary validation ....................................................................................................................... 26

Model improvement recommendations ........................................................................................... 27

Advanced Model Input .................................................................................................................. 31

Rainfall analysis ................................................................................................................................. 31

River Runoff ...................................................................................................................................... 39

Manila Bay Delta Challenge

MAIN REPORT MARCH 2014

Salt Intrusion .................................................................................................................................. 41

Tidal dynamics .................................................................................................................................. 42

Intrusion curve .................................................................................................................................. 43

Salt measurements in Hagonoy ........................................................................................................ 44

Land Use Changes .......................................................................................................................... 47