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Recap of Part 1
Specified a procedure for selecting the appropriate size of a replenishment quantity under constant and
deterministic demand
Batching causes inventory (i.e., larger lot sizes translate into more stock).
Under specific modeling assumptions the lot size that optimally balances holding and setup costs is given by the
square root formula:
Q* =
2 AD
h
Total cost is relatively insensitive to lot size (so rounding for other reasons, like coordinating shipping, may be
attractive).
Sizeable deviations from the EOQ produces small error in cost (robust)
Discussed several modifications
Now:
Factors impacting this decision are those that affected the EOQ
New Terminology
On-hand inventory (stock): stock that is physically on the shelf (can never be negative)
Net inventory (stock) = (on hand) (backorders)
Can be negative
Inventory that has been requisitioned but not yet received less what has been backordered or promised
Safety stock: the average level of net inventory just before a replenishment order arrives
Stockouts
When demand is no longer assumed to be deterministic, the costs of stockouts (shortages)
assume a greater importance
Two extreme cases in the event of a stockout
1.
2.
The answers to these questions will determine the path your analysis should take
A: make up roughly 20 % of total number of items and 80% of dollar sales volume
B: 30 % of items and 15% of dollar volume
C: 50% of items and 5% of dollar volume
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Newsvendor: single period planning for inventory that perishes or becomes obsolete
Base stock: multiple periods, demand comes in one unit at a time, replenishment order has one unit each
time
(Q,r): multiple periods, continuous review,
4.
5.
6.
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Rules of Thumb
Continuous review
Periodic review
A items
(s,S)
(R,s,S)
B items
(Q,r)
(S,R)
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13
The Newsvendor
Problem
Georgia Tech, 2014
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Assumptions:
1. single period
2. random demand with known distribution
3. linear overage/shortage costs
4. minimum expected cost criterion
Examples?
15
16
input
parameters
g ( x) =
d
G ( x ) = density function of demand.
dx
co = overage cost (in dollars) per unit left over after demand is realized.
cu = underage cost (in dollars) per unit of shortage.
Decision
variable
17
= co (Q x ) g ( x )dx
+ cu ( x Q ) g ( x )dx
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Y (Q ) = co (Q x ) g ( x )dx + cu ( x Q ) g ( x )dx
0
dY (Q )
Using Liebnitz Rule
= coG (Q ) cu (1 G (Q ))
dQ
Second derivative check
d 2Y (Q )
= ( co + cu ) g (Q ) 0
dQ 2
therefore, Y(Q) is convex, the optimal order quantity Q * occurs when
dY (Q )
= coG (Q*) cu (1 G (Q*)) = 0
dQ
We call this the critical
cu
G (Q*) =
cu + co ratio
Georgia Tech, 2014
ISyE 3104 Fall 2014
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Recall:
Standard Deviation = 5
Standard Deviation = 10
Average = 30
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
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cu
Q *
G (Q ) =
=
cu + co
*
Q *
cu
= z where ( z ) =
cu + co
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Newsvendor Examples
Georgia Tech, 2014
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Newsvendor Example
A GT student organization is planning to sell Happy Homecoming 2014 party decorations. The
organization will buy the decorations for $8 each. They will sell the decorations for $18.
Decorations that remain unsold at the end of the Homecoming week will be confiscated by the
officers to use in their fraternities and sororities for next year, so the organization will take a
complete loss on each unsold decoration.
For planning purposes, the officers are using an estimate for average demand of 225
decorations, but they know this value is highly uncertain so they estimate the standard deviation
to be 250. They also feel that a normal distribution will adequately represent the demand
probability density function. How many decorations would you recommend that they buy for
the finals week sale?
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Newsvendor Example
Model Parameters:
cu = ?
co = ?
=?
=?
G (Q*) =
cu
=
cu + co
z=
Q* = + z
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Demand
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
probability
0.11
0.11
0.27
0.23
0.18
0.1
Cumulative
Prob.
0.11
0.22
0.49
0.72
0.9
1
* From Designing and Managing the Supply Chain: Concepts, Strategies & Case Studies. David Simchi-Levi, Philip Kaminsky and Edith Simchi-Levi
25
00
0
18
00
0
16
00
0
14
00
0
12
10
80
00
0
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
00
Probability
Demand Scenarios
Sales
The forecast averages about 13,000, but there is a chance that demand will be
greater or less than this
Georgia Tech, 2014
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Costs
Production cost per swimsuit (C): $80
Selling price per swimsuit (S): $125
Salvage value per unsold swimsuit (V): $20
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Question: Will the optimal quantity be less than, equal to, or greater than average demand?
G(Q*)=
Q*=
28
provided:
Key: make sure co and cu appropriately represent overage and shortage cost.
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Example
Scenario:
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Example (cont.)
Newsvendor Parameters:
c0 = $0.5
cu = $15
Solution:
15
= 0.9677
0.5 + 15
Q 100
= 0.9677
25
Q 100
= 1.85
25
Q = 100 + 1.85( 25) = 146 Every Friday, they should
G (Q * ) =
www.factoryphysics.com
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33
34
Q
r
R
l
X
p(x)
G(x)
h
b
S(R)
B(R)
I(R)
35
R=r+1
r
On Hand Inventory
Backorders
Orders
Inventory Position
l
3
0
0
10
15
20
25
30
35
Time
Wallace J. Hopp, Mark L. Spearman, 1996, 2000
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2.
37
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S ( r ) = P ( X r ) = G ( r ), if G is discrete
Procedure: Find r* so that S(r*) > desired service level (fill rate)
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g( x ) =
k e
k!
Therefore,
, k = 0 ,1 ,2 ,...
G( x ) = p( X x ) =
p( k ) =
k =0
x
10 k e 10
k =0
k!
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p(r)
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.008
0.019
0.038
0.063
0.090
0.113
0.125
0.125
0.114
G(r)
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.010
0.029
0.067
0.130
0.220
0.333
0.458
0.583
0.697
B(r)
10.000
9.000
8.001
7.003
6.014
5.043
4.110
3.240
2.460
1.793
1.251
0.834
r
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
p(r)
0.095
0.073
0.052
0.035
0.022
0.013
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
G(r)
0.792
0.864
0.917
0.951
0.973
0.986
0.993
0.997
0.998
0.999
0.999
1.000
B(r)
0.531
0.322
0.187
0.103
0.055
0.028
0.013
0.006
0.003
0.001
0.000
0.000
For fill rate of 90%, we must set r =14, so R=15 and safety stock
s = r- = 4.
Georgia Tech, 2014
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Expected backorder level, B(R) is the expected number of demand units that exceed on
hand stock
if x < R
0,
backorders =
x R , if x R
B( R ) =
( x R ) p( x ) = p( R ) + ( R )[1 G ( R )]
x=R
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p(r)
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.008
0.019
0.038
0.063
0.090
0.113
0.125
0.125
0.114
G(r)
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.010
0.029
0.067
0.130
0.220
0.333
0.458
0.583
0.697
B(r)
10.000
9.000
8.001
7.003
6.014
5.043
4.110
3.240
2.460
1.793
1.251
0.834
r
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
p(r)
0.095
0.073
0.052
0.035
0.022
0.013
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
G(r)
0.792
0.864
0.917
0.951
0.973
0.986
0.993
0.997
0.998
0.999
0.999
1.000
B(r)
0.531
0.322
0.187
0.103
0.055
0.028
0.013
0.006
0.003
0.001
0.000
0.000
For fill rate of 90%, we must set r =14, so R=15 and safety stock
s = r- = 4. Resulting service is 91.7%. B(R) = B(r+1)=B(15) =
0.103
Georgia Tech, 2014
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44
45
b
G( R ) =
h+b
Set R* so that the fill rate = b/(h+b), what does this ratio remind you of?
*
46
b
G( R*) =
h+b
R *
=z
where (z)=b/(h+b). So
R* = + z
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b
25
G( R*) =
=
= 0.625
h + b 15 + 25
If the demand is not too low, we can approximate the Poisson distribution with the
Normal distribution where =10 and = sqrt(10)=3.16 (Recall that the Poisson
distribution has mean = variance)
R* = + z = 10 + 0.32(3.16) = 11.01 11
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p(r)
0.000
0.000
0.002
0.008
0.019
0.038
0.063
0.090
0.113
0.125
0.125
0.114
G(r)
0.000
0.000
0.003
0.010
0.029
0.067
0.130
0.220
0.333
0.458
0.583
0.697
B(r)
10.000
9.000
8.001
7.003
6.014
5.043
4.110
3.240
2.460
1.793
1.251
0.834
r
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
p(r)
0.095
0.073
0.052
0.035
0.022
0.013
0.007
0.004
0.002
0.001
0.000
0.000
G(r)
0.792
0.864
0.917
0.951
0.973
0.986
0.993
0.997
0.998
0.999
0.999
1.000
B(r)
0.531
0.322
0.187
0.103
0.055
0.028
0.013
0.006
0.003
0.001
0.000
0.000
For R*=11, r*=10 the associated fill rate with this new
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Summary of Part 2
Analyzed two stochastic demand inventory control models:
Newsvendor
Base stock
Next:
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