LTE by the Numbers: A Statistical

Analysis of Deployment Plans

Stphane Tral
Principal Analyst, Mobile and FMC Infrastructure
Infonetics Research

Key Findings
LTE continues to move forward; of the 18 service
providers we interviewed last month:
1/2 are conducting trials
17% are already deploying LTE
The bulk of actual deployments is spread out between
2010 and 2012
72% will follow the W-CDMA-to-HSPA+-to-LTE path
This is consistent with last years surveys 81% following
this path

Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

Key Findings continued

3 notable differences in this years survey (vs. last years)
The split between FD and TD LTE
Only 67% of this years respondents will deploy FD LTE only
28% will deploy FD LTE first, then complement with TD LTE

The continuous investment in existing data networks

44%up from zerowill continue to invest in more coverage
and functionality with their current technology

The conclusive voice over LTE migration path

94% will deploy IMS (VoLTE)
56% will also implement circuit-switched fall-back
39% will launch voice service over LTE one year from launch
Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

A look at our service provider sample

18 service providers worldwide,
accounting for 47% of worlds
capex, 46% of revenue
50% mobile, 39% incumbents, 11%
competitive operators

% of LTE
Commitments*

Region

% of Respondents

North America

18%

17%

Europe, Middle East, Africa

54%

44%

Asia Pacific

23%

39%

5%

0%

Central and Latin America

* As reported by GSA

More than 3/4 from

3GPP clan

Wireless Network Types

W-CDMA/HSPA/HSPA+

GSM/GPRS/EDGE

22% from 3GGP2

CDMA2000 (1xRTT, 1xEVDO; xEV-DO Rev A, Rev B)

Some operate WiMAX

networks as well

Fixed/nomadic or mobile
WiMAX

cdmaOne 0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Percent of Respondents

Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

56% trial LTE in 2010

2009

Timeframe

2010

2011

2012

2013 and beyond

Deploy
Don't know

Trial
0%

20%

40%

60%

Percent of Respondents

Actual deployments are spread out between 2010 and 2012

17% are deploying in 2010, down from 25% last year
This is consistent with GSA LTE deployment update from 26 Aug. 2010
Some initially bullish mobile operators have postponed deployments
Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

72% will follow the HSPA+ to LTE path

LTE Network Migration Scenarios

W-CDMA to HSPA+ to LTE

W-CDMA to HSPA to LTE (skip HSPA+)
GSM to EDGE to LTE
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev A to LTE
GSM directly to LTE
WiMAX 802.16e to LTE
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO directly to LTE
GSM to evolved EDGE to LTE
As a greenfield network
CDMA2000 1xEV-DO Rev A to 1xEV-DO
Rev B to LTE
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Percent of Respondents

As 78% come from 3GPP, this is no surprise, although the HSPA+ onslaught is recent
Some operators who last year thought they would skip HSPA+ have changed their mind!
Note the CDMA guys and those going straight from GSM
Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

TD-LTE is gaining serious momentum

FD-LTE only

LTE Types

FD-LTE first, then

complemented by TD-LTE

TD-LTE only

TD-LTE first, then

complemented by FD-LTE
FD-LTE in low bands and
TD-LTE for capacity
enhancement
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Percent of Respondents

Only 67% will deploy FD LTE only, and 28% will deploy FD LTE first, then
complement it with TD-LTE
This is in line with China Mobiles push for TD-LTE and the completion of more
spectrum auction with allocation of both paired and unpaired spectrum as well as the
outcome in India
Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

Combining LTE with Current Cellular Data Technology

Current data networks wont be replaced

Continue to invest in more functionality and
coverage with current technology

Continue to invest in more coverage with

current technology, but not more functionality

Keep current data network, but won't invest in

more coverage or functionality with old technology

Replace current data network with LTE

Expand current technology by deploying LTE

upgradable remote radio heads

Do not offer cellular data services

Continue to invest in more functionality with

current technology, but not more coverage
0%

20%

40%

60%

Percent of Respondents

This reflects the increasing knowledge about LTE, leading progressively to thinking
more realisticallythat LTE is not going to cover everything at once
So there is an emerging need to ensure 3G coverage as a fall-back (e.g., HSPA+), and even
a need for EDGE where 3G coverage is inadequate
Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

IMS will be the preferred voice platform

Voice Migration-to-LTE Scenarios

Deploy IMS (VoLTE)

Implement circuit-switch fall back (CSFB)

Leave voice on 2G network as long
as possible
Implement VoIP over 2.5/2.75G/3G
as a first step to full migration
Offer voice softclients on top of data plans
Use MSC and SMS legacy, but convert
to SIP for delivery over IP RAN
Implement voice over LTE via generic
access (VoLGA)
0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Percent of Respondents

And more than half of our respondents will also use the circuit-switched fall-back
option to ensure voice service coverage across multiple networksLTE vs. non
LTE areas
Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

Bottom line
LTE deployments are increasing at a fast pace, and HSPA
keeps building momentum
Paving the way for a broader HSPA+ to LTE migration path

IMS is the default platform for voice, and 3G networks are

going to be more important than ever as a fall-back in
areas lacking LTE coverage
This also implies that if 3G coverage is not adequate, there will
be a fall-back to EDGE as it is currently implemented

Consequently, there is a need to continue to invest in the

existing network
Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

Q&A
Questions?

Copyright 2010 Infonetics Research, Inc.

THANK YOU
Stphane Tral
Principal Analyst, Mobile and FMC Infrastructure
+1 408.583.3371
stephane@infonetics.com
www.infonetics.com

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