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Global HVAC
Trends
Andrew Giles
Chillventa
Forum
October 2014

Our main methodology expert interviews top

players
Large companies

Interview
all of these

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sample of these

Director of
BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
29 years at BSRIA
Natural Sciences
Cambridge University
andrew.giles@bsria.co.uk

Source: Market Research Society

Small companies

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Global HVAC markets agenda

Agenda

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AC Global trends
Very Certain

Market Globalization &

Industry consolidation
US recovery
VRF vs. Chiller
European Economy
Energy Efficiency and
Smart
renewables
Ventilation/
buildings
DOAS
Refrigerants
smart homes
Joint Ventures
And Alliances

Emerging
Countries

Material
cost
Chinese
growth
slowdown
Market Drivers
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Legislation
Critical
Market Restraints

Global Major Regions HVAC Market Value

NAmerica
22.7bln

Europe
25.9bln

Japan
14.0bn

China
39.0bln

Total 2013 market value: 100bn

Europe analysis based on following countries:
Austria, Belgium, Czech Rep., France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK

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World air conditioning market, 2012-2017

Total 2013:
Euro 72.3 billion

Total 2014:
128.5 million units

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Top 12 Expectations for 2014

Ranking
products

Country

Trend

Market Value*

Market growth**(%)

Hot

China

25,827

+ 3%

VRF, Chillers

USA

10,302

+ 9%

Ductless, VRF, Chillers

Japan

8,255

+ 1%

None

Brazil

2,172

+ 16%

Ductless, VRF, Chillers

S. Korea

1,678

+ 1%

None

India

1,657

+ 14%

Ductless, VRF, Chillers

Italy

1,016

+ 1%

None

Saudi Arabia

992

+ 13%

Ductless, VRF

Australia

974

+ 2%

None

10

Russia

959

- 13%

None

11
12

Germany
UK

833

+ 5%

Ductless, VRF

803

+ 7%

* In Euro million for 2014

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Ductless, VRF,
Chillers
* * Forecasted
growth rate from 2014 to 2015
8

World fastest growing markets, CAGR 2012-17

Russia

UK

China

Turkey
Mexico
Colombia

Venezuela

India
Nigeria

Vietnam
Indonesia

Brazil
South
Africa

Argentina

Hot spots >10% growth

Warm spots >5-10% growth
Cold spots <0% growth

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Europe AC market growth 2013-14e

Turkey

Germany

UK

France

Italy

Spain

Russia

30%
24%
18%
12%
6%
0%
-6%
-12%
-18%
-24%
-30%
Splits+VRF (by
volume)

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Chillers (by value)

10

10

Expected future growth for Europe (CAGR 20122017)

Turkey

Germany

UK

France

Italy

Spain

Russia

10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Splits+VRF (by
volume)

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Chillers (by value)

11

11

Global minisplit market 2014 e

Top 10 countries in Europe in 2014 by units

(number of outdoor units) 6.5 million units
representing 6% of global total

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12

12

Global minisplit market Europe trends

What we might have said
earlier this year

?? Now highly uncertain, BSRIA

researching

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13

13

World inverter air conditioning market

Inverters (single + multi) by volume

2013 total market

sizes
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14

14

Global drivers
Importance

EU Legislation/
Outlawing of R22;
Directive 2009/125/EC on
Ecodesign1 a framework
for energy reduction

high

Supermarkets
Energy Efficiency/
Green credentials

Inverters

Design

med

low

Quick
installation

Improve food
chain/avoid
waste

Discount
stores Lidl,
Aldi etc.

Reliability
Price of
Copper
Reduce noise
levels

Smaller
supermarkets

In EU countries supermarkets and energy efficiency are key

In India, China and Brazil, improving the food chain is a main driver

med
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high

Degree of Adoption
15

15

Growth in refrigeration, by country, by

value, CAGR
2012 total: 31,034.5 US$ million
14.5%
8.7%
7.6%
7.0%
4.2%
3.7%
2.7%
2.5%
1.6%

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16

BSRIA as an advisor
on refrigeration

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17

RED

AMBER

Indicative energy savings

Low savings

Medium savings

High savings

GREEN

Where technology can be applied

Limited application

Some application, but

not widespread

Universal application

Ease of application

Complex

Medium

Simple

Maintenance of technology

Complex

Medium

Simple

Interaction with other technologies

High interaction

Some interaction

No interaction

Impact on water use

High

Medium

None

Applicability to Saudi Arabia

Not applicable

May be applicable

Applicable

17

ErP - Impact on products

Eco Design

Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems

Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015

Combined CB + ST system
Fuel cell

A +++ 150%
A ++ 125%

Cogeneration

Gas HP

A+

Ground /Water to
water HP

98%
Air to water HP

Condensing
boilers

Noncondensing
boilers

90%

82%

75%

36%

34%

From 26/9/2015 products

with Label D to G are
no longer allowed to
be sold

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18

Hybrid Heat Pumps

+ enhanced Controls

18

Boiler technology shift

Domestic gas and oil boiler sales 2012 - 2017

000 units

Inside the EU market

Source:BSRIA,basedontheanalysisof9largestEuropeanmarkets

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Outside the EU market

000 units

Source:BSRIA,basedontheanalysisofTurkey,Russia,China,S.Korea

19

19

Hybrid heat pumps

Market potential by 2020
units

CAGR 2014-2020
+51.7%

Hybrid Box
Gas cond. boiler & A/W
monobloc HP

Modulo Hybrido
Gas cond. boiler & A/W
split HP

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20

20

2020 European heating market

Top 6 Heating market by volume of sales, 2012 2020 wall hung condensing, wall hung
non-condensing , floor standing, biomass, solar thermal & heat pump
000 units

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21

21

Renewables sales curve until 2035

Powerful drivers for new technologies after 2020

Units

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22

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