p.

Is It Time for the United States to Pivot Back to Europe?

AmbassadorKurtVolker:Ladiesandgentlemen,welcome.Letmebethefirstto
apologizeforthetrafficingettinghereandfortheMetroblockagesaswell.Wedidn't
knowwhenwewereschedulingthisthatwehavetheNationalChristmasTreeto
competewith.I'mgladthatyoumadeithere.Ithinkwehaveaterrificeveningplanned
foryou.
MynameisKurtVolker.IhavethehonorofbeingtheExecutiveDirectoroftheMcCain
InstituteforInternationalLeadership,whichwasformedtohonorthelegacyofserviceto
ourcountryofSenatorandMrs.McCainandtheMcCainfamily,goingbackgenerations.
It'spartofArizonaStateUniversitybutbasedhereinWashingtonandinDC.Itis
dedicatedtoadvancingcharacterdrivenleadershipandtobeingadotankmorethana
thinktank,adotankwherewetrytotakeonprojectsintheareasofhumanitarianwork,
humanrights,ruleoflaw,governance,andsecurity.
Oneofthethingsthatwedoisweorganizethisdebateseries,inordertoteeupand
considersomeofthekeychallengesfacingourcountryand,infact,facingtheworld.I
can'tevencounthowmanyofthesewe'vedonenow,butwe'veaskedquestionssuchas,
"ShouldtheUnitedStatesinterveneinSyria?"AsearlyasJanuary13,weheldthat
debate.WehavetalkedaboutwhetherweshouldgetoutofAfghanistan,howtodeal
withIran,isittimeforcontainmentwithRussia.
Thisevening'sdebateisonatopicverydeartomyheart,whichis,"Isittimeforthe
UnitedStatestopivotbacktoEurope?"There'sobviouslyalotgoingoninEurope,and
wehaveagreatmoderatorwho'sgoingtoteethatup,andsomegreatdebatershere.
Letmeintroduceallofthem.Normally,weletourmoderatordothis,butsincethey'reall
oldfriendsofmine,IthoughtIwouldsayafewwordsabouteach.
StartingimmediatelytomylefthereisIanBrzezinski.Ianisaformerdeputyassistant
secretaryofdefense.He'sasenioradvisorattheAtlanticCouncil.Iknewhimwhenhe
servedontheforeignrelationscommitteestaff,andweworkedtogetherinthe
administrationwhenIwasattheStateandhewasatthePentagon.
WehaveConstanzeStelzenmller,whoisavisitingscholarhere.She'shadmanyhatsin
herlife,includingwiththeGermanMarshallFundinBerlin,andisnowwiththe
BrookingsInstitutionhereinWashington.Oneofherrecenttriumphsisbeinginductedto
theSwedishAcademy.We'reverypleasedtohaveherhere.SwedishAcademyof
Sciences,asaforeignaffairsornationalsecurityfellow.
ConstanzeStelzenmller:Warsciences.

p.2

AmbassadorVolker:Verygood.Thankyou.WehavePatrickCronin,whoiswiththe
CenterforNewAmericanSecurity,andleadstheAsiaPacificSecurityProgram.Also,
withagreatbackgroundatUSAID,intheUSSenate,alsoatNationalDefense
University,ifI'mnotmistaken.
Finally,NileGardiner,whoisattheHeritageInstitutionandrunstheMargaretThatcher
CenterforFreedom.NilehasbeenafixtureinWashingtonforaboutadecadenow,asan
advocateforUSUKrelationsandalsoagadflyonanythingdealingwithUSEU
relations.
WeareverypleasedtonightthatthisdebatehasbeensupportedbytheEUdelegationto
theUnitedStatesandEuropeanUnion.We'regratefulforthatandwehopewehavesome
membersherefromthere.Wedoencourageyoutotakethisasanactiveparticipatingrole
foryourselves.
Putyourcellphonesonsilent,butdon'tturnthemoff.Feelfreetweetandcomment
duringthecourseofthedebate,#MIDebate.Wealsoencourageyoutoaskquestions.
Therewillbeanopportunityfortheaudiencetodothat.
Asfarasthestructureofthis,itisatimed,structureddebate.Wetrytokeepitfairfor
bothsides,butwealsowantittobelively.Thequestion,again,is,"ShouldtheUSpivot
backtoEurope?"WehaveIanandConstanzearguingthatweshould,andPatrickand
Nilearguingadoseofskepticismonallofthat.
Inordertorunthisdebate,weareveryhonoredanddelightedtohavewithusTeri
Schultz.Ifyougetupinthemorning,listentotheradio,andyougetallthebadnews
fromBrusselsabouttheEurozone,aboutNATO,orabouttheterroristshutdownof
Brussels,thevoiceyouhearisthatofTeriSchultz,who'stheNPRcorrespondent
reportingoutofBrussels.
Withoutanyfurtherado,letmeturnitovertoTeritogetusgoinginourdebate.Thank
youverymuchforbeinghere.
[applause]
TeriSchultz:Thanks,Kurt.Iamveryprivilegedtobehere,eventhoughwhenhegave
methedates,Isaid,"Kurt!Ican'tmisstheseconddayoftheNATOforeignministerial."
Iwasveryupsetaboutthat,butIthinkheprobablysavedme.
[laughter]
AmbassadorVolker:Whatdoyouthinkisgoingtohappen?
Teri:Montenegro!God.
[laughter]

p.3

Teri:Hugeheadlines.
ThelasttimeKurtandIwereonapanel,itwasinEstoniathreeyears,twoyearsago.The
titleofthatpanelwas"ThePivottoAsia,"wasitreallyhappening,shouldithappen,and
shouldtheEuropeansbeworried,insulted,or,asKurtsuggestedfromhisdaysinthe
administration,relieved?
[laughter]
Teri:Sincethen,therelationshiphasindeedbeenstrainedbymanythingstheNSA's
socalledspyingscandal,althoughIwillsaythatsomeEuropeans,includingthepresident
oftheEuropeanParliamentatthetime,expressedhisdelightthattheNSAwas
apparentlyspyingonthem.ItmeantthattheUSactuallythoughttheEuropean
Parliamentwasinteresting.I'mnotkidding.
[laughter]
Teri:Thatisnotajoke.I'mnotkidding,directquoteinaninterview.Hewasreally
tickled.
Thestrainswerethere,thelackoftrustissue,theongoing,permanentreluctanceof
NATOalliestopaytheirshareofmutualdefense.Ianwilltalkaboutthattosomeextent.
TherearenowmoredivisionsabouthowEuropeshouldhandleitsrefugeeandmigration
crisis,whattheUSshoulddotohelp,iftheUSshoulddomoretohelp.
Therearedifferencesoverresponsestoterrorism,whichthreatenEuropeandnow
increasingthreatentheUS.Again,beingtakenoutbyKurtoftheapparentJihadihotbed
ofBrussels,IshouldbegratefulthatI'mafewdaysoutoflockdown.
AsIwascominghere,peoplewereaskingifI'dreadtheAnneApplebaumarticletitled,
"DoesEuropeEvenMatter?"Questionmark.Thenextlineis,"Dysfunctionhassucked
Brusselsdryofanyforeignpolicypowerorrelevance."Period.Itwasn'treallyaquestion
forherinthatarticle.I'msuremanyofyouhavereadit.
EvensomecommittedEuropeanUnionsupportersfearthattheblockiscurrentlyso
strainedthatit'sfallingapart.ManyEuropeanswanttopivotawayfromEurope
themselvesNile.
[laughter]
Teri:NotonlytheBrits,theHungarians,tosomeextenttheSlovenians.Many
Europeansareverydisillusionedwiththeirunion.
Ontheotherhand,whoisWashingtonreallygoingtocallwhenitneedshelp,ifnot
Europe?Evenifyoudoneedadozennumbersnowandnobodyknowsanyone'sname.

p.4

Wearegoingtostartoffnowwithfourminutesforeachside,fourminutesfrom
propivot,fourminutesfromtheantipivot.Thentheywillhaverebuttalstotheiropening
arguments,andthenwewillmovetoquestions.
BecauseIappreciateeveryonebeinghere,especiallysomeofmyfriendswhocame,I'm
goingtoopenittotheaudienceearlierthantheysometimesdointhisdebatetogetyour
questions.IfIdon'tgetmyquestionsanswered,thatwayI'llgoaheadandthrowthem
backtotheaudience.
I'mveryhappytobehere.Really,thanks,Kurtforhavingme.LetusstartwithIanand
Constanze.
IanBrzezinski:Thankyouverymuch.WhenIthinkofEurope,Ithinkofitprimarilyin
securityterms,soI'malittlelessworriedaboutwhattheEUisdoing.I'mmoreworried
whatnationalgovernmentisdoingorwhatNATOisdoing.
WhenIlookbackatthehistoryofthetransatlanticrelationship,IthinkoftheColdWar.I
rememberattimeswhentheUnitedStateshad300,000troopsdeployedpermanently,
stationedinEurope.Ofcourse,theColdWarended,andaboutadecadelater,attheturn
ofthecenturywehadabout100,000troops.
Then,overthelastdecade,thatnumberhasdroppeddowntoabout60,000.Thatdrop
from100,000to60,000,that'sthepivotthatI'veseeninUSpolicy,apivotawayfrom
Europe.Itwasapivotthatwasundertakenbytwoadministrations,aRepublican
administrationandthecurrentDemocraticadministration.
Itwasabipartisanmistake.Weshouldpivotback.Why?
Becausewehaveaworldtodaythatismoredangerousandmorecomplex.Itfeatures
[inaudible9:09]regimes,ideologicalextremism,failedstates,andtheUnitedStates
needsalliesandpartnersthathaveacombinationofeconomicresources,military
capability,andpoliticallegitimacy.
Europeoffersthebestcombination,abettercombinationthan,Iwouldsay,anywhere
elseintheworld.EUisan$18trillioneconomy.Europeoffers,throughNATO,
unmatchedmilitarycapabilityonglobalterms.NATOistheworld'smostintegrated,
effective,andcombattestedmultinationalforce.WeshouldneverforgetEuropean
contributionsandsacrificestoUSledoperationsinIraqandAfghanistan.
Then,ofcourse,thetransatlanticcommunityconstitutesauniquecollectionof
likemindeddemocraciesthathaveaprovenrecordofcollectiveaction.Ontopofthose
assets,wehavearealitythatEuropeisnow,onceagain,astageforconfrontation
betweentheWestandRussian.
Thatconfrontationfeaturesverydangerous,escalatorydynamics.Weshouldbe
concerned.Weshouldbeproactive.Weshouldbeengaged.I'dsaysomeofthe

p.5

vulnerabilitiesthatwehaveinthatconfrontationarerootedintheUnitedStates'pivot
awayfromEurope.
Europehasitsfaults.It'sgotitsfreeriders.Somecountrieshaveverylowdefense
spending.Thatistrue.Butitprovidesnobettersetofallieswithwhichtodeal,with
whichtocollectivelypromotefreedomandsecurity.
Toleveragethispotential,theUnitedStateshastoinvestinthisrelationship.Itcan'tlead
frombehind.Ithastoleadfromthehelmofthetransatlanticcommunity.That'swhyI
thinkweoughttopivotback.
Constanze:Tothoseofyouwhodon'tknowme,Iamsomethingofaliberalhawk
whichputsmeinasomewhatsmallergroupinmyowncountry,althoughyouwould
probablybesurprisedbyhowmanythereareofus.I'mroughlyofthesameageasthe
policymakersnowrunningmyowncountry,andperhapsyoumightwanttoremember
thatwewereyoungpeople,students,duringtheColdWar,andwehavewelltrainedCold
Warreflexes,andithasn'tbeenverydifficulttorememberthoseinthecurrent
circumstances.
Ithinkthatitissometimesforgotteninthistown,atleastbythepeoplewhoaren'tinthe
machineroomcurrentlyworkingwithpeopleinBerlinandotherEuropeancapitals.That
isalsowhyIthinktherehaven'treallybeenthatmuchofapivotawayasisoftensaid,
particularlybyconservativecriticsofthisadministration.
FromwhatIcansee,andIhavebeenhereforayearnowinathreeyeargigat
Brookings,andI'vebeenback14times.IgotoBerlinandotherEuropeancapitals
regularlyfromAthenatoRiga,Tallinn,andStockholm,andParis,andsoon.Mysenseis
thatcooperationbetweentheWhiteHouse,theStateDepartment,DoD,andtheir
counterpartsinEuropeancapitalshasbeenintense,hasbeenconstructive,hasbeen
cooperative.Therehavebeendisagreementsofcourse,andtherehavebeenfailures.
ButthedisagreementsIthinkhavebeenlegitimatedisagreementaboutveryoften
technicalissues,ortiming,timingofsanctionsratherthanaboutideologicalquestions.I
thinkweareinbroadagreementaboutthedangerspresentedbyVladimirPutin'sRussia,
bythechaosintheMiddleEastandwhatthatmeansforEuropeanstability,andinvery
broadagreementabouttheneedtoworktogetherasAmericansandEuropeans.
TheproblemsofvulnerabilitiesthatwehaveIthinkarenotsomuchbecauseofa
supposedUSpivotaway,butbecauseglobalizationwhichhasenrichedusandmadeour
continentmorepeacefulhasalsomadeusmorevulnerableandweakenedournation
states.FormanyEuropeansandincludingmanyGermans,andincludingme,Europe,and
theEuropeanUnionisawaytoleveragethepowerthatwehavetoworktogether,to
decreaseourvulnerabilitiesandincreaseourstrengths.
Particularlyatatimewhenwehaveinourdefensebudgets,whicharerelativelylowbut
arebeingincreasedincludinginmycountryhavereachedthepointwheretechnology

p.6

costsaresuch,andthetechnologyandthecomplexityoftechnologyaresuchthatdefense
budgetincreasesalonearenotgoingtoresolvetheproblem.
Letmeleaveyouwithonefinalthought.IwelcomeAmericanengagementinEurope.
WhatIdon'twanttoseeagainistheinfantilizingcodependencymarkedbyresentmenton
bothsidesthatwehadatsometimesduringtheColdWar,ifwe'rehonestwitheach
other.WhatIwantisaEuropethatismoreresponsible,thatstepsuptotheplate,that
takesonmoreofitsburden,andthatworkswithAmericawhenitneedsto,andrelievesit
oftheburdenwhenAmericahaspressingpreoccupationselsewhere.Thankyou.
Teri:Allright,PatrickandNile.
PatrickCronin:Kurt,thankyouverymuch,andIapologizeaudienceformyhoarse
throat.MyargumentissomewhatnuancedbecauseI'msympathetictotheproposition,
butmypositionisthattherebalancedAsiainnoway,andshouldnot,detractfromthe
longstandingtransatlanticallianceandrelations.TheUnitedStatesinfactshouldbein
lockstepwithourEuropeanallies,thekindofrevisionistgreatpowerswhethertheir
aggressiveanddeclininglikeRussia,orsimplycoerciveandrisinglikeChina.
Weshouldalsofullytapthetransatlanticalliancetodevelopastrategytodealwith
transnationalterrorismandinstitutionsorentitieslikethesocalledIslamicstate.
Fortunately,wehavehighlydeveloped,integrated,andasIanpointedout,verycapable
institutionslikeNATO.Theyalreadyexist,andwecanandshouldbeusingthemfully.
TheUnitedStateremains,afterall,aglobalpower.
EventherebalancedAsiawasnevermeanttosaythatwedidn'thaveinterestsonthe
EurasiarimlandfromEuropetotheMiddleEast,totheIndoPacific,justtheopposite.
TherebalancedAsiaasannouncedbytheObamaAdministrationin2011wasreallya
conflationoftwothings.Ontheonehand,thelongtermtrendsthatmanyadministrations
hadseenhappeningoverdecades,thatistheshiftinglobalpower,especiallyeconomic
powerfromWesttoEast,butalsotheshorttermdesireoftheadministrationpolitically
todrawawayfromtwohotwarsinAfghanistanandIraq.
Ithinkyoucanarguethattheydidittoofast,andtoomuch,butthat'snotthepivotto
Asia.Thatwastheseparatepolicydecisiononthepartoftheadministration,sodon't
confuseitwiththestrategyofalongtermreorientationtowardsthegradualeconomic
integrationwitharisingIndoPacificregion,withacloserpoliticalintegration,andwith
dealingwiththemilitarychallengesandopportunitiesposedbytheregion.Strengthening
alliesappliesinAsiajustasitdoesinEurope.
Theideaofthisargument,thisproposition,misrepresentstheUSbalancepolicytoAsia,
andIthinkthisrebalanceadjustourcomprehensiveengagementtocorrespondwiththe
shiftinthediffusionofpowermakesalotofsense,thisishalftheworld'spopulation,a
thirdoftheglobalGDPandrising,someofthemostcapableandmostmodernizing
militariesareintheAsiaPacific.

p.7

Thisisthecenterofgravitynow,andit'sevenbecomingmoresoasyouheadouttothe
middleofthecentury.Solet'sdomorewithEuropeanallies,butlet'snotbesmirch
arguablythemoststrategicelementoftheadministration'sforeignpolicybyblamingall
ofEurope'scurrentillsonit.Thankyou.
Teri:OK,shakeitup,Nile.It'swaytoomuchsolidarityinthecourthere.
NileGardiner:Well,firstly,thanksverymuchfortheinvitation.It'sagreathonortobe
heretospeaktotheMcCainInstitute,andJohnMcCainisatremendouspatriotandatrue
warhero,andweowehimanimmensedebtofgratitude.IknowthattheEUishelpingto
fundthisdebate,theymightwantarefundafterlisteningtomycommentshere.
[laughter]
Teri:Onequarterofit.
Nile:Iwouldsaythatweshouldbesuspiciousofthetermpivot,really.Administrations
usethewordpivotinordertodisguisereallyalackofstrategy,andalackofpolicy,and
alackofattentionpaidtocertainareasoftheworld.YoucanexpecttheWhiteHouseto
shortlyannounceapivottoSyriaforexampletocoverforthefactthattheydon'tactually
haveaSyriastrategy.So,whenIheardthetermpivottoEurope,Iimmediatelyhada
verynegativereactiontothat.
Wedon'tneedtheUnitedStatestopivotbacktoEurope,weneedAmericantorebuild,
keypartnershipswithimportantalliesacrosstheAtlantic.ThatincludesGreatBritain,
Poland,keynationsinEasternandCentralEurope,forexample,whohavebeentreatedin
somecaseswithdisdainbythecurrentadministration.WeneedtheUnitedStatestobe
farmoreassertiveinstandinguptotheRussianbearinEurope.
WealsoneedAmericatoreversetheverydangerousseriesofbaseclosingsacross
Europe,sendingcompletelythewrongsignalatthistime.
WeneedtomovebeyondtheideathatEuropeissomesortofunified,unitedentity.I
believefirmlythatweshouldnotbeelevatingtheEuropeanUnionwhichisan
organizationoranentitythatisfundamentallyundemocraticinmyview,andthereisa
majorpushacrossEuropeagainsttheEU.
There'sadrivetowardselfdetermination,we'reseeingthatinGreatBritainwiththe
forthcomingEUreferendum.ThelatestopinionpollshowthemajorityofBritishpeople
wouldvotetoleavetheEUifthatvotewasheldtoday.Europe,asacollectionofnation
states,EuropeisnottheUnitedStatesofAmerica,andweshouldnottreatitassuch.
AngelaMerkelactuallyrecentlydeclaredthatweshouldinvestintheSchengen
Agreement,attheheartoftheEuropeanproject.I'msurethemanypeoplethoughtthe
Titanicwasanextremelygoodinvestmentbackin1911,butthat'showweshouldbe
viewingtheEuropeanUniontoday,itisliketheTitanic.Fortunatelyafewlifeboatsare

p.8

goingtobethrownofftheboat.ManycountriesIthinkwillbegintoleavetheEUif
BritaindecidestoleavetheEuropeanUnion,buttoconclude,theEuropeanprojectisa
disaster.
MargaretThatcher,myformerboss,describedtheEU,ortheideaoftheEuropean
projectasthe"greatestfollyofthemodernera,"shesaid,howrightsheis.Let'sadvance
realUSleadershipontheworldstage,notgimmickslikehavingapivottoEurope,for
example.Let'sworkwithourallies,let'sstrengthenAmericanleadership,let'sleadfrom
thefrontratherthanfrombehind,butlet'sendthisobsessionintheStateDepartment
withadvancingthisideaofsomesortofEuropeansuperstate.
TheEU,ithastobesaid,isabasketcase.Let'snottryandrescueacompleteandutter
basketcase,andlet'smoveforward,actually.That'ssupportselfdetermination,freedom,
andsovereigntyinEurope.
Teri:Thankyou.We'vegoneovertimeoneverybody'sspeechessofar,I'vegottoget
stricter.Eachsidewillnowhavetwominutestogivearebuttaltotheopeningremarks.
Youcansplititoneandone,oronepersoncanspeakfortwominutes,butthere'sthe
clockupthere,youguyscanseeittoo.
Nile:Makeacoupleofpoints.
Constanze:Well,Idon'tknow,IhaveaphotographonmyiPhone,whichsadlyIdon't
havewithmeofMargaretThatcherinaveryfetchingjumperwithalltheEUflagsonit
campaigningfortheinvotein1973.Perhapsshechangedhermindafterthat,butit'san
adorablepictureandIcantweetitrightafterthisagain,I'vetweeteditbefore.
Look,IthinkthattheEUcertainlyhasalotofproblems,populism,therefugeecrisis,the
Eurozonecrisis.It'sallveryreal,andit'sanybody'sguesshowwellwe'regoingtodeal
withthose.ItisentirelypossiblethatGreatBritainwillleavetheEU,butIthinkthat
wouldbelamentable,itwouldbedisasternotonlyforEurope,butitwouldbedisasterfor
GreatBritain.
BecauseIbelievefirmly,asfirmlyNiledoeshisbeliefthattheEU,thattheUKhasvery
successfullyleverageditselfthroughtheEuropeanUnionandhaveverysuccessfully
influencedtheEUandwhenitisoutsideoftheEUwillnolongerbeabletodothat,and
we'llfindthatthatreducesitsscopeconsiderably.Idon'tthinkthatschmoozingwith
Chinabehindthebleachersisaveryseductivealternative,frankly.
Ialsothink,andthenIthinkNileyouknowthis,thatit'snotjustthisadministration
tellingtheBritstoplease,please,notgothisroute,butmanyRepublicansaswell.I
wouldalsosaythatagain,tosomebodywhoisacommittedopponentoftheprojectI
don'texpecttoconvinceyou,butIthinkthattheEUrichlydeserveditsNobelPeace
PrizeforthepeacethatitbroughttoEurope,fortheprosperitythatitbroughttoEurope,
andforthewaythatithelpedthepostcommunistnewmemberstransforminto
functioningdemocraciesafter1989.Thatisaremarkableachievement.

p.9

Teri:There'sbeenenoughsharpintakesofbreathontheotherside,IthinkNileisready
togo.
Nile:Yes,ifIcouldrespondtothesepoints,firstly...
Teri:Twominutes,Nile,please.
Nile:DoestheEUdeservetheNobelPeacePrize,obviouslynot.Let'snotforgetwho
defeatedtheSovietempire.ItwastheUnitedStates,GreatBritain,itwastheleadership
ofRonaldReaganandMargaretThatcher.Itwasn'ttheEuropeanUnionthatdefeatedthat
monstrosity.
YoureferencedhereMargaretThatcherandherverycolorfuljumper,well,Iworkedfor
MargaretThatcherforseveralyears,andIknowexactlywhatshethoughtaboutthe
EuropeanUnion,andherviewsdramaticallychangedwithregardtotheEUinthe1980s.
Itwasherview,veryfirmly,thatBritainneededtogetoutoftheEuropeanUnion,to
reassertitssovereignty,toreassertitselfasafreenationalstate,andthatwasMargaret
Thatcher'sposition.
YoumentionedanimportantpointthereaboutUSadministration'sbackingEuropean
integration,andthatisafairpoint.Manyadministrationshavedonethatovermany
decades,butyouarguedthattheRepublicanssupportBritainstayingintheEuropean
Union,orhaveadoptedthesamelineastheObamaadministration.Let'sbeclearhere,
PresidentObamahasbeenlecturingtheBritishPeoplehowtovoteintheirown
referendum,thatIthinkisanappallinginterventioninBritishinternalaffairs,it'snoneof
hisbusinessactually.
WhenRepublicanpresidentialcandidateshavebeenaskedaboutthisissueoftheBritish
referendum,theyhaveveryclearlypointedoutthisisamatterfortheBritishpeopleto
decide.ButasJebBush,TedCruz,MarcoRubiopointedout,theywouldquitehappily
signontoaUSUKfreetradeagreementiftheBritishpeopledecidetoreasserttheir
sovereigntyandleavetheEuropeanUnionandleavethoseshacklesbehind.Let'shope
theydo,butlet'ssettherecordstraightIthinkontheRepublicanside.
Teri:Thankyou.OK,I'mgoingtomoveontothepivottoSyria.Asiftherewereone.
It'sadevelopingstorynowandasanewspersonI'mtryingtokeeptrackofthis,asthe
shootersinSanBernardinolikelyhad,IthinkwasthelastwordingIsaw,likelyhada
terroristlink.
We'retalkingtohandlers,Ithinkunknown,butpeoplewhowereonwatchlistsof
variousgovernmentsincludingtheUnitedStates,andevenafterParisthereisstillno
appetiteintheObamaadministrationorinanyotheradministration,inanyEuropean
governmentforgroundtroopsunlesseverybodyagreesonthis,unlessthey'resomebody
else'sgroundtroops.

p.10

ThepresidenthasjustdoubledthenumberofSpecialForceshe'sdeployingIthinkfrom
50to100,somajorcontributionthere.
WhenParislookedatwhatitsoptionsweretoaskforhelp,andIanI'mgoingtosendthis
toyoufirst,itdecidednottogowithArticleVofNATO,thoughtherewerecallsforitto
doso,therewerecallsforittoaskitsEuropeanalliestomilitarilysupportinastronger
waythaniteventually,thedecisioneventuallyittooktousetheEUtreatyinthis42.7
previouslyunusedclausewhichsimplyobligatesotherEUmemberstodowhateverthey
cantohelpFrancewitheitherhomelanddefenseoritsexternalaffairs.
DoyouthinkthatthethreatfromISISshouldrisetothelevelofanArticleVinNATO,
doyouthinkthatwouldthendrawintheUnitedStates,wouldmakeEuropean
governmentsreallystartthinkinghardaboutwhetherthereisamilitaryresponseother
thanmoreairstrikestodefeatingISIS.
Ian:AshorribleasthestrikesinFrancewere,I'mnotsuretheyquiterosetothelevelof
anArticleV.
Teri:Butyousawthosecalls,therewereplentyofpeoplesuggesting.
Ian:ThereshouldhavebeencallsinsupportofTurkey,whenTurkeyhad100blownup
inoneday.ThatwouldjustifyanArticleV.
WhenyoucallforArticleV,youhavetohaveclearsenseofpurposeofwhatyou're
goingtodo,andIdon'tthinkwehaveaclearsenseofpurposeorallianceofwhattodo.
SobeforeyoudrawNATOinyou,betterhaveaveryclearsetofobjectivesandastrong
consensusbehindthat.
Now,astowhatshouldbedoneisadifferentquestionshouldwehavesafezones,
shouldwehavegroundforces,shouldwehavenoflyzonesandthatsortofthing.It'sa
wholedifferentsetofvariables,andthey'recomplex.
IthinkyoucandoalottobeeffectiveagainstISISwithoutNATO.Ithinkyoucandoa
lotwitharobustcoalitionofwilling.It'snotsomuchatestofNATOit'satestof
transatlanticwill,andthat'swhatitcomesdownto.
DotheEuropeanshavethestomachtodowhat'snecessarytoaddressaverycomplex,
longtermchallenge,southofanally'sborder?
Idon'tthinkwe'reevergoingtogettheanswerthatwewantunlesstheUnitedStates
demonstratesitswillingnesstotakeonthechallenges,andtheresponsibilities,andthe
burdensthatcomewiththistask.
Teri:Inwhatway?Theycallairstrikestakingthemon.

p.11

Ian:Ijustdon'tthinkit'sgoingtobesufficient.Ifyou'regoingtoreallyaddressthe
problemsouthofTurkey,you'regoingtohavetohavemorerobustgroundpresencethan
50specialoperatives.
Teri:It's100now.
Ian:Hundredoperators.You'regoingtohavetohavemuchmoreaggressiveairstrikes,
you'regoingtohavetohaveamuchmorerobustpresence,simplytocontainthenew
dynamicthatRussiahasentrancedtothat.
ButthefactofthematterwhenyoutalkaboutthisasaEuropeissueoraUSissue,it's
firstandforemostaUSissuebecausewehavetolead,wecanonlyleadifwe
demonstratethenecessarycommitment,thatmeansputtingintheforcesnecessarytodo
thejob.OnlythencanweturntotheEuropeansandaskthemtodomore.
Teri:Interesting.Wouldtheantipivotsidesaythesame?ThattheUSabsolutelymust
leadonSyriaandcannotleaveittotheEuropeans,evenafterParis,onemightthinkthat
Francewouldwanttotakemoreofalead,pushtheUnitedStatestodomore?
Nile:IagreethattheUnitedStateshastoleadonSyria,andofthemomentthereisno
realleadershipcomingfromWashington,actually.ThatIthinkissendingthewrong
signalacrosstheAtlantic.
OntheissueofhowEuropeancountriesshouldrespond,it'sveryclearthattheEuropean
Unionitselfisnotreallycapableofdoinganything.TheEuropeanUnionIthinkisa
completesideshow,asideplayerwithregardtotheSyriansituation,andit'sdowntothe
individualnationstatestoact.
ItwasverywelcomeddevelopmentyesterdaythattheBritishParliamentvotedinfavor
ofairstrikesagainstISISinSyria.ThatIthinkisaveryimportantsignalthatneedstobe
sending,andofcourse,FranceisalreadytakingpartinairstrikesinIraqandSyria,and
hopefullyevenmoreEuropeancountrieswilldoso.Butwedoneedanoverallstrategy
comingfromtheUnitedStatesandkeyEuropeanalliestodefeatISISemphatically.
Airstrikesalonesimplywillnotdothat,butifanyoneislookingtoBrusselstoleadwith
regardstowhatisaglobalwaragainstIslamicterrorism,Ithinktheywillbesorely
disappointed.
Teri:ButtherearetwoheadquartersinBrussels,boththeEuropeanUnionandNATO,
andyoushouldpointthatout.
Nile:I'mreferringofcoursetotheEU,ImeanNATO...
Teri:Tobefair,nottobeanEUdefender,buttheydon'thaveamilitary,soyoucan't
looktoBrusselsandtheEuropeanUnionforanykindofmilitary...

p.12

Nile:That'saverygoodthing.Idon'tthinkyouwanttohavetheEuropeanUnionwith
somesortof...
Constanze:Nile,youcan'thaveitbothways.Youcan'tsay,"Youshouldn'tdothis,"
andthenblamethemfornotdoingit.
Nile:No,youdon'twanttheEuropeanUnionhavinganarmyjusttakingresourcesaway
fromNATO,andthisisanimportantdebatethat'stakingplaceinEurope.
Teri:AndthisistheBritishpositionthathaspreventedanysortoffurtherreasoning...
Nile:It'snotjusttheBritishposition.
Constanze:NobodywantstheEuropeanarmy,it'snot...
Nile:It'smanyEuropeangovernments,andwithverygoodreason.Iftherewasa
EuropeanUnionArmy,whowouldbefightinginit?Itwouldoverwhelminglybethe
BritishandtheFrench.
Ifyouleavethattothenationstates,notsomesupranationalentity.
Teri:Asitisnow.
Ian:ThisisnotaNATOversusEUissue.
Nile:Nooneissayingthat.
Ian:ThisisaboutleveragingUSandEuropeanmilitaryfirepower.Europeanresources
whenitcomesdowntodevelopmentandreconstruction,andthat'swhereIthinktheEU
canactuallyplayaveryusefulrole,andultimatelythepoliticalwillnationalgovernments
aregoingtohavetomake,tomakebothofthosecontributionsoccur.
Teri:AndConstanze,ifyoucouldadd,whatwouldpossiblymakeanygovernmentdo
anything.Obviously,there'snotenoughpeopledeadinParisyet.
Constanze:Ithinkthat'salineofargumentthatIwouldn'twanttotake.IagreewithIan
thatthereareperfectlycomplimentaryrolesfornationstates,theEU,andtheEUand
NATOhere.Weshouldn't,becausewe'refightingarearguardideologicalaction,like
Nilesay,weshouldleaveoneofthoseoutoftheequation.That'sjustpointless,because
noneofushaveenough...eachoftheseactorshasimportantresourcestobringtothe
table.
Therealityis,Nile,I'msorryIreallyhavetobangonyouaboutthis.You'reflogginga
deadhorse.

p.13

NobodyinEuropeistalkingabout,Idon'tknowofasingleEuropeanpoliticianexpect
perhapsmaybesomeLooneyoldFrenchguysouttheresomewherewhoreallywanta
Europeanarmy,orwhowantasupranationalEUforideologicalreasons.
Thereasonwhysomepeoplearetalkingaboutdeeperintegration,includingindefense
andsecurityisforthesimplereasonthatitappearsveryclearthatwecannotalways
requiretheAmericanstoprovidethedefenseandsecuritybackboneofwhatwedo.
GoodexampleistheEUnavalforce,underanEUflagintheGulfofAden,whichhas
veryeffectivelyhelpedcontainthethreatofpiracyfromSomalia.Thisisnotillegitimate,
it'snotantiNATO,it'snotantidemocratic,peoplewantit,it'sworking,it'suseful.So
whybeagainstthat?Itseemstomethatthatisapointlesswasteofenergy,frankly.
So,whatwereallyneedonaEuropeanleveliscounterterrorismintelligencecooperation.
ThatisnotsomethingthatNATOprovidesaframeworkfor.Ifranklydon'tcarewhatthe
frameworkisaslongasitgetsdone.
Teri:Patrick,youwantedtocomein?
Patrick:Well,Teri,justbacktoyourquestiononSyria.Wedon'treallyhaveastrategy
onSyria,andthisisarealdeficitthatwe'relacking.It'sevenbeforeyougettoadeficitof
capabilitiesincludingEuropeanunderinvestmentindefense,includingpoliticalwill,a
deficitofpoliticalwillinEurope.Obviously,that'schangedsinceParisperhaps,atleast
insomeareas.
ButUnitedStatesandEurope,ifthey'regoingtodosomethingeffectivelyinthe
longterm,asIanpointsout,thisisalongtermchallenge,andit'smorethantheIslamic
State,socalled.Thisisgoingtotakenotjustkineticaction,it'sgoingtotakeavery
longtermsortofmultilevelstrategy.
Ifwe'renotabletocometogetherwithNATOalliesandthinkthroughthatstrategy
beforewethinkthroughaUSledmilitaryoperation,thenwhatisthegoodofNATO?
NATOneedstohelpUnitedStatesalsounderstandtherightstrategytosucceed.We're
lookingforstrategiceffectintheMiddleEast,andsofarthestrategiceffectshavebeen
workingagainstEuropeandtheUnitedStates.
Teri:Fairlyenough.Nilewantsadoublerebuttal.
Nile:WelljusttorespondtoConstanze's...
Teri:Briefly,verybriefly.
Nile:Verybriefly,becauseIthinkherargumentthattherearenotmajorforcesinEurope
pushingforgreatercentralizationofpower,that'scompletelywrong.Lookatyourown
GermanchancellorwhoistheleaderinEuropepushingformoreandmoreintegration,

p.14

formoreandmorepowersforBrussels.ThecentralizingforceisattheheartofBerlin,
actually,ifyouwantevidenceofthat.That'sanextremelyimportantpoint.
There'sahugedebateinEuropebetweenthosewhowantselfdeterminationandthose
whoarepushingformoreandmorepowersfortheEuropeanUnionandBrussels.
Teri:Thereisonecomment,Constanze,whichyouprobablyrememberfromEuropean
CommissionPresidentJeanClaudeJuncker,whowasuntilveryrecently,likeacoupleof
monthsago,callingforanEUarmyandsaidthatatthemomenttheEuropeanUnion's
commondefensepolicyhaslesscohesionthanaflockofchickens,wasit?
Constanze:Look,thereisaseriousdebatetobehadonthis,andIthinkit'sunfortunate
ifJunckerusesanexpressionlikeanEUarmy,hedoesthatobviouslytogetmedia
attention,anditworked,butitworkedinthewrongways.
Teri:ButtheGermanswerehisbiggestsupportersinthat.
Constanze:OK,nowtwopoints.AngelaMerkel,justtosettherecordstraight,isthe
womanwhoturnedGermanyawayfromdeeperEuropeanintegrationtoespousewhat
shecallstheunionmethod,whichisintergovernmentalism,pureandsimple.The
GermanshaveactuallyresistedtheEuropeanintegrationoneconomicissuessuchas
bankingunion.TheGermanshavebeendraggingtheirfeetonthis.
Asfordefense,whattheGermanshavebeensuggesting,andIwouldsuggestitis
somethingveryinteresting.TheGermanshavebeenputtingforthsomethingthattheycall
theframeworknationconcept,whichwouldallowGermanytoprovideamilitary
backboneincaseswherewecannotpresumeonthepresenceofanAmericanbackbone,
becauseAmericansneedtodeploytheirassetselsewhere.
Whatthatmeansisthatsmallernationscanspecializeorconcentrateoncertain
capabilitieswhichtheyhavealreadydefactodonebecauseoftechnologycost,andthen
attachthemselvestoGermanunits.Thatishappeninginveryimportantandverycreative
ways,anditisEuropeanizingforcesaswespeak.Itiscreatingcommonforces.
Butagain,thisisnotanideologicaldrive,it'sdrivenbypracticalnecessityandbydefense
costs,anditisnotantiNATO,allofitisfullyNATOinteroperable.
Teri:Ithinkwe'lldefinitelycomebacktomoreNATOquestions.
Constanze:Sorrytobesotechnical.
Teri:We'lldefinitelycomebacktoNATO.Iwanttojustlaunchonemorequestion
beforeIgototheaudience,andthatisaboutwhatusedtobethebiggestissuethatI
coveredinBrussels,andwasaskedtocoverbyUSmediaclients,andthatwasthe
refugeeandmigrationcrises.Untilterrorismhit,weweretalkingonlyaboutrefugeeand

p.15

migrationfordaysanddaysandweeksandweeks.Italsoexacerbatedthecracksin
EuropeansolidaritylikenothingelseexcepttheGreececrisistothatpointhaddone.
Constanze,youevenwrotethatatthispointafterallofthesestrains,thattheEuropean
projectisindangeroffallingapart.IthoughtthatduringGreece,IthoughtI'dnever
heardEuropeangovernmentsspeakingthatwaytoeachotheruntilthemigrationcrisis
came,andwe'veneverseenanythinglikethis.Countriesliterallybuildingfences,notjust
Hungary.SoIwouldliketogetyourtakesonthis.
DoestheUS,cantheUSdomoretoeasetheburdenofEurope?Nile,Iknowwhatyou
thinkaboutthis.I'mgoingsaysomethingforhim.HesaystheEuropeanUnionis
doomedanyway,andtherefugeecrisisisjustgoingto...
Constanze:Doomitsomemore.
Teri:...doomitsomemore,hastenitswelcomedemise.ShouldtheUSdomore,andthat
isn'tjusttake10,000Syrianrefugees,whichisnothing,nothingtohelpeasetheburden
ofthosecountriesthataregettinghundredsofthousandsperday.
So,whatshouldtheUSdo?Isthisanothertestoftransatlanticsolidarity,whatcantheUS
do?Shoulditbedoingmore?OrisEuropejuststuckwithitsownproblems?
WewouldlookatthingslikeyoucanblametheUSbackinLibya,whatusedtobethe
mainrouteofrefugeesmugglingandtransituntilTurkeybecamesuchabighub.
I'dlikeyourviewsonthat,andwe'vereallygottosticktotime.Ifeveryonewantsto
answer,let'shaveoneminuteeach,please.There'stheclock.
Patrick:Simple,UnitedStates,obviously,shouldtakemorerefugees,butwe'renot
goingtotake100,000refugees,we'renotgoingtotake150,000refugees.
Teri:Even100,000isnothing.
Patrick:Wecantake100,000,that'snotgoingtostoptheprobleminEurope.Sostop
theprobleminEuropeisendingtheconflictinSyriaandbringingstabilitytoIraq.
Teri:WhataboutLibya?
Patrick:Youknow,ifwecandothat,thatwouldhelptoo.Butyourbiggestandmost
urgentchallengerightnowisinSyriaandinNorthernIraq.
Intheabsenceofreal,clearstrategywithcoherentends,andlongtermcommitment,
commitmentofresources,thatismilitaryandfinancial,thatproblemisnotgoingtobe
resolved.That'showtheUnitedStatescanmakeaneffectivecontributiontothis
challengethat'sfacingEurope.

p.16

Constanze:CanImaybecomeatthisfromaslightlyperhapsunconventionalside,and
suggestthatthedegreetowhichweareabletonotjustabsorbbutintegrateand
assimilateMuslimmigrantsfromconflictzonesintheMiddleEastwillhaveasignificant
impactonourcredibilityandourlegitimacyasactorsintheMiddleEast,andatleast
thesetwothingsare,therefore,connected.
So,I'msuggestingthatwenotbesuckedintofalsedichotomies,andsaywehavetodo
oneortheother.Wedobothofthesethings.Wegracefullyaccepttherefugeechallenge,
anddealwithit,butwealsotryanddealwiththerootcausesandwealsotryandtake
someoftheburdenoffTurkey,Lebanon,andJordan,whichhastakenafarbiggerburden
thanwehavesofar,andhelpstabilizethosecountriesthatareonthebrinkof
disintegrationthemselves.
Teri:Butyourchancellortriedtodothat,andendedupalsohavingtocloseyour
borders,eventemporarily,andhavingtolimitthefloor.Thatwasheroriginalidea.
Constanze:Yes,butthesearetemporarymeasures.PeopleIthinkoutsideofGermany
arenotawareofjusthowmanyrefugeesandmigrantswehaveintegratedsince1945.I
thinkevenGermansweren'tawareuntilpeoplesortofdugupthenumbersandrealized
justhowmuchthiswas.
Mysocietyhascompletelychanged,evensincemychildhood.Weusedtobewhiteand
CatholicorProtestant.Thathasutterlychanged.
Iamactuallyreasonablyconfidentthatwecandothis.Ithinkasthereisadirectlinkage
toourcredibilityinforeignpolicy,butI'malsorelievedthatGermanyisnowsending
[inaudible41:36]issendingafrigate,andissendinggroundtroopsnottofightinSyria,
becauseweappeartoallbeagreedthatthatisnotonthecardsatthispoint,butIcansee
mygovernmentdoingmoreifwealldecidetodomore.
Teri:ButthatwasadecisionthatcameoutofFrance'scallingof42.7,wasn'tit?
Constanze:I'mnotsurethatwastheonly...look,wehaveavery,verycloserelationship
withFrance,inmuchthesamewaywehaveaverycloserelationshipwithPoland.A
threattoFranceisathreattous.ThesamewayUkraineisathreattoPolandand,
therefore,isathreattous.
Itfollowsfromthat,thatwehelped.ButthelargerquestiontowhichIthinknoneofus
haveanysimpleanswer,andIwoulddistrustanybodywhohasasimpleanswerishowto
trulygrapplewiththerootcauses.
AsIsay,IthinkthewaywedealwithMuslimsinourmidstisgoingtohaveasignificant
impactonthat,andlet'snotforgetthat.
Patrick:IagreeTerithattheUnitedStatesneedstoplayaleadingroletotrytocontain
andtampdowntheconflictatitssource.Wealsocanplayaleadingroleinmobilizing

p.17

internationalsupportindealingwithrefugeesandinternallydisplacedpeopleinthe
countriesinfactthatConstanzejustmentioned,inLebanon,Turkey,Jordan.That
includes,bytheway,Asiancontributions,notjustEuropeancontributionsorAmerican
contributions.
Yes,theUnitedStatescansupportEuropeintermsofhowwecantrytohelptakeoff
maybejustatleastasymbolicnumberofrefugeestoshowthatwecare,butinrealitywe
can'tfixtheproblemthatway.It'sconsistentwithourvalues,andit'sourinterestsin
globalorder.
Teri:Does10,000showwecare?
Patrick:Idon'tknowwhatthenumberis.
Teri:That'sOK.Nile?
Nile:Ontherefugeeissue,IfirstlyasPatricksays,moreshouldbedonetoassistwith
therefugeecampsinnationsborderingSyria.Ultimately,ifwewanttoendtherefugee
crisiswe'vegottodealwithISIS,andwe'vegottoemphaticallydefeatISIS,andthat's
whatwehavetodo.That'sthemostimportantroletheUnitedStatescanplay.Taking
10,000refugeesisnotgoingtomakeanydifference.
OntheEuropeanfront,Iwouldsaythattherefugeeissueshouldbeamatterfornation
states.IfPolandorHungarydoesnotwishtotakeanyrefugeesormigrants,that'stheir
choice.
Constanze:OronlyChristianones.
Nile:IftheywanttotakeonlyChristianrefugeeswhoarebyfarthemostpersecutedin
Syria,thenthatisthechoiceofthePolishorHungariangovernments.Itshouldbetheir
decisionalone.ThisideathatGermanycandictatetotherestofEuropehowmany
refugeeseachcountryshouldtakehasbeenfirmlyandemphaticallyrejectedandrightly
so.
Teri:Itwasn'tonlyGermany.
Nile:IfGermanywishestotake800,000,1.6millionrefugees,that'suptoGermany,and
it'suptothemhowthey'regoingtodealwiththatsituation.
Teri:Butthenit'salsouptoGermanyhowmuchmoneytheywanttoallocatetothe
EasternEuropeanstateswhoaren'thelping.
Nile:Theymustnot,Germanyisinnopositiontobelecturingothercountriesaboutwho
theyshouldorshouldnotbetakinginsidetheirowncountry.IdothinktheGerman
attemptheretoyetagain,ImeanDominateEuropehasbeencompletelyrejectedby
manycountries,especiallyinEasternandCentralEurope,andalsobyBritainaswell.

p.18

Teri:ItwasonlyfourcountriesIbelieve,intheend,whowereopposedtothatmeasure,
eventhoughtheymayhavebeenstrongarmed.Onlyfour.
Nile:Ithinkyou'llfindmorecountriesthanthat.Butthis...
[crosstalk]
Nile:Attheendoftheday,thisisanissueaboutcontrollingyourownborders,
selfdetermination,andnocountryisunderanyobligationtotakeacertainnumberof
refugees.IfAngelaMerkelwantstomakethatpersonalinvitationtolargenumbersof
migrants,that'sherownchoiceandtheGermanpeopleshouldfaceuptothe
consequencesofthat.
Teri:DoyouknowwhichcountryhasthemostexpatriateslivinginEurope?
Nile:UK?
Teri:It'syou.
Nile:Yeah,andthat'sanexampleofBritainbeinganincrediblysuccessful
entrepreneurialsociety.
[laughter]
Teri:UnlikePoland,right?
Nile:Thatisatestamenttofreemarkets,capitalism,andtakingalotofthebesttalent
fromacrosstheworld,includingfromtheUnitedStateswhichiswhy...
Teri:Imightnotbetrueoncetheyneedavisa,right?Like...
[crosstalk]
Nile:Whywouldtheyneedavisa?
Teri:Ifyouleave,theymightneedaworkvisa.
Nile:IthinkthattheideathatGreatBritainastheworld'sfifthlargesteconomywill
overtakeGermany'seconomyby2030,theideathattheUnitedKingdomwillsomehow
besidelined,isolated,afteritleavestheEuropeanUnion,Ithinkisscaremongeringofthe
lowestcommondenominator,andIthinkthatveryfewpeoplearebuyingthatargument
inBritainitself,actually.
Teri:Goodenough.OK,Iwouldliketotakequestionsfromtheaudience.
Sir?Firstinthefront?Ididhavemicrophonesforpeople.Thanks.

p.19

RussellKing:I'mRussellKing,retiredfederalemployee.Ihaven'ttakenasideinthis
debateyet,butIbelievethatyoushouldnotputallyoureggsinonebasket,andyou
shouldbeabletomovetheeggsfromonebaskettoanotherwithoutbreakingthem.I
believetheUSmilitaryisdesignedtobeintuningupconflictsatonetime.
Justrecently,wewereinAfghanistanandIraq,sothat'stwoconflictsinCENTCOM
region,soyou'rearguingEUCOMoverhere,andPACOMoverhere,butIwonderifyou
couldcommentaboutintertheatremobility,themovementofresourcesfromone
commandtoanother.Iknowthere'salsobeenAFRICOM,there'sbeenanewcommand
thatjustcame,butfromastandpointofthecommandsaswellasthelogistics,howhas
intertheatremobilityimprovedovertheyears.
Teri:Thankyou.Hejumpedintothatanddiditperfectly,pleasegiveyournameand
yourorganization,andnottoomucheditorializingandgettoaquestionquickly.
Patrick:Wehaveaglobalforce,UShasglobalinterests,sowherevertheforcesare
based,theyhavetobepreparedforglobalcontingencies.
Theadministrationhasannouncedthatthey'reshifting,especiallynavalassets,butalso
airassets,froma50/50percentratiobasedinPacificversustherestoftheworld,toa
60/40,butthat'sonthebasisofasmallerandshrinkingforcestructure.
Infact,whattheadministrationmostlydoingisputtingthebestfaceonpreservingthe
statusquo,butitisimprovement.Idon'twanttotrivializetheimprovements,because
someofthemarethehighqualityofshipsthatwe'rebuilding,althoughinsomecasesthe
littoralcombatshiphasmorelimitedcapacitythansomeofourtraditionalships.
So,it'samixedbaginwhatwe'rebuildingupintheAsiaPacific,butit'smeanttobe
focusedonreadyfordeploymentintheAsiaPacificandtheGulfIndianOceanregions.
SoreinforcingtheFifthFleetinBahrain,theSeventhfleetinYokosuka,Japan,butfor
globalmissions.WecouldarguethatweshouldputasecondcarrierinJapanandmake
anoperationalcommandinJapan,andmakeitarotatingfleetthatcouldgoalltheway
throughtheIndoPacificonpatrolswithotherallieslikeAustralia,butnewpartnerslike
IndiaandotherallieslikethePhilippineseventually,aswellasJapanandKorea.The
realityisthough,thattheseforcesarestilllackinginnumbers.
We'renotintheMediterranean,we'renotintheNorth.Therearerealreasons,thereare
realshortfallsthatI'mconcernedwithaswellglobally,butthathastodowithourglobal
investmentandourforceposture.Wecan'taffordeverything,sowe'regoingtohaveto
leverageallies.
We'reaskingallalliestodomore,notjustinEuropewherewe'recriticalandhavebeen
criticalforyearsinnotmeetingtheirspendingtargetsinNATO,butwe'realsoaskingall
ofourAsianalliestodomore,somuchsothatourpushingJapantonewdefense
guidelinesisbeingcriticizedbyevenourKoreanalliesasmaybetooaggressive,because

p.20

they'renotcomfortable.Butweneedouralliestodomore,weneedourforceposture
that'sreadytobeglobal,butinrealitywehavesomerealgaps.
Teri:Thankyou,andIwouldliketopointouttoanybodywho'swatchingthisonlive
streaming,oranybodyhere,youcantweetaboutourdebateat#MIDebateandbecauseI
askedonTwitterpeopletosendmequestions,andIgotarathermeagerresponseIwant
torewardthosewhodid,andthiswouldgointoIan,didyouwanttoanswerthis
question?ButletmethrowinthequestionofStephanSusanto.
Hesaidhewantedtohearmoreabouttheroleofnucleardeterrenceinatransatlantic
sense,andalsomissiledefenseburdensharing,andthatwouldfallundertheNATO
categorytoalargeextent.
Ian:TofollowonPat'scomments,crosstheatreoperationshasbecomearefinedartin
theUSmilitary.JustlookattheoperationsinAfghanistanandIraq,andtherolesthe
UCOMforcesplayed.AlmostallUCOMforcesonewayoranother,atonetimeor
anotherineitherofthosetheatres,sothat'snotreallyachallenge.
Theproblemis,sincewe'retalkingaboutpivottoEurope,isthatthe60/40reorientation
ofthecurrentadministrationhasmadeintermsourglobalforceposture,60percentgoing
tothePacific,orPacificoriented,ignoresthekindofchallengethatwefaceinEurope,
ignores,Ithink,warningsignsthatwereemergingwellbeforetheObamaadministration
thatwereontracktoaconfrontationalrelationshipwithRussia.InvasionofGeorgiain
2008shouldhavebeenasignal.
The2007attack,cyberattackonEstoniashouldhavebeenasingle.Thearticulationof
policybyPutin2004,2005outlininghisaimsandobjectivesinEuropeshouldhavebeen
asignal.
So,whatwedidwaswebasicallypulledourforcesoutofEurope,ignoringwhatwasa
clearlyemergentthreat.Whileweweredownsizingourforcesoverthere,andwhilethe
Europeansweredownsizingtheirmilitarycapabilities,theRussianswereembarkingona
longtermmodernizationplanofwhichwe'renowseeingsomeofitsproductsinmore
effectivespecialforces,operationsforcescapability,greaterdeployabilityofforces,more
rapidmobilizationrates,moreeffectiveandaccuratestrikecapacities,withIskander,and
Kalibrmissilesincreasinglycapableairdefensesystems.
ThisiswhythepivotawayfromEuropehasIthink,inmymind,beenamistake.It'snot
anissueofintratheaterlift,it'sanissueofbeingwhereyouneedtobe,andweneedto
havemorerobustforcepostureinEuropeifwe'regoingtoeffectivelyworkwiththe
Europeanstodealwiththisnotinthelongeremergent,buttheveryrealRussianthreat
thatweface.
Teri:MissiledefenseespeciallywithregardtoeitherRussia,atwhomitisnotdirected,
orperhapsPatrickatNorthKorea,atwhomitmaywellhavebeen,orIran.

p.21

Ian:Areyouaskingme?
Teri:Eitheroneofyou,aquickansweronmissiledefense.
Ian:Onmissiledefense,NATOUSmissiledefensepolicyregardingRussiahasbeen
completelymistaken.
Teri:It'snotaboutRussia,remember?
Ian:Exactly.AsIsaid,it'scompletelymistaken.Tosaythatwe'regoingtobeorienting
ourthreatsagainstIranianmissilesisniceandprobablyuseful,buttointentionallynot
directoravertourradarcoverageandourinterceptivecapabilitiesfromRussiaisbeyond
me.
Teri:Soyou'resayingweshouldopenlysaythisisdirectedagainstaRussianthreat.
Ian:Missiledefenseisadefensiveaction.It'snotthreateningtoRussia.It'sbeyondme
why,inthefaceofincreasinglyprovocativeRussianmilitaryconduct,inthefaceofan
increasinglyoffensiveforcepostureinRussia...
Here,we'retalkingaboutthecalibercruisemissiles.We'retalkingaboutIskanders.We're
talkingaboutRussianexercises.
Teri:InKaliningrad,noless.
Ian:DeploymentsofIskandersinKaliningrad.We'retalkingaboutRussianexercises
thatsimulatetheuseofballisticmissiles,sometimeswithnuclearwarheads,againstthe
West.Weshouldhavemissiledefenseagainstthat.There'snoquestioninmymindon
that.
Patrick:WehaveproblemsinAsiaaswell.EventhecommanderofUSForcesKorea
hashadahardtimeconvincingourSouthKoreanalliedgovernmentthatweneedanother
layerofmissiledefense,THAAD,toprotectUSforcesaswellasKoreanforcesagainst
thegrowingarsenalthatNorthKoreaistryingtobuild,howeverunsuccessfully,and
expandinganuclearweaponsprogramthatcouldparallelthatofPakistanifthey're
allowedtocontinueoverthenext5,10years.
Missiledefenseisaglobalissueaswellbecausesystems,theconnectionsandthe
informationsystemswiththeredundancyandresiliencybuiltin,areessentialforour
operations.InGuam,USterritoryinthePacific,wejusthadthelargestdeliveryeverofa
forwarddeploymentofTHAADmissiles.
That'sbecausewe'rereplacingtheinterceptorsinpreparationprobablyfortheMay2016
NorthKoreanCongress,whichhasn'thappenedfordecades,becausethere'slikelytobe
anICBMlaunchaboutthattime,Iwouldsuspect.I'mjustguessing.

p.22

TherealityisthatwehavetoprotectourassetsinAsiaPacific,reassurealliesand
partners,andnotgiveintoRussianorChinesepressureaboutthesesystemsarehurting
them.They'renot.Thesesystemsaretoominortoaffectamajormilitarypowerlike
RussiaorChina.
Teri:Whichisn'texactlygoodnewsforNATO.
Patrick:Itisn'texactlygoodnews,butit'sthereality.Deterrenceworksthough.
Teri:Quickly,Kurt,doIget10extraminutesbecausewestartedlate?Nice.
Morequestions?Upinthemiddle.
Michael:IguessIcanjustdothiswithoutamicrophone.
[crosstalk]
Constanze:I'mnotsureyoushouldbecauseit'sbeinglivestreamed.Waitforthe
microphone.
Teri:Thanks.
[crosstalk]
Teri:Let'strytodobulletroundsnow.Oneminuteanswers,please,frommypanel.You
candirectthemtowardssomebodyifyouwantto,ortheycanjust...
Michael:MynameisMichaelBuckalew,recentgraduateofKoreaUniversity.Ihavea
questionrelatedtoRussiaspecifically.WhenwecompareRussiatotheSovietUnion,we
seeacouplefacts,thatRussiaismuchsmaller,muchlesspopulous...
Teri:Thispartshouldbeveryshortbecauseeverybodyhereknowsthat.
Michael:Fairenough.
[laughter]
Michael:IwouldsayinthecontextofRussiabeingrelativelymorecompactthanthe
SovietUnioninalotofways,doesRussiasolelyjustifyapivotbacktoEurope?
Teri:Whowantsit?
Ian:Ilovethatone.
Teri:Takeit.
Nile:Metoo.

p.23

Ian:Absolutely.RussiajustinvadedUkraine,invadedGeorgia.It'sconductingoffensive
exercises.Justthisspring,itconductedanexerciseinwhichitsimulatedtheseizureof
partsofnorthernNorway,thelandislandofFinland,theGotlandislandofSweden,and
BornholmofDenmark.
Teri:AndnowTurkey.
Ian:TurkeywasjustaseriesofRussianprovocationschallengingtheairspace,seaspace
ofallies.
Russiarightnowhasaverysophisticatedcapabilitytorapidlymobilizealargeamountof
forcestoquicklyseizealimitedswathofterritoryinitsproximity.We'renotposturedfor
that.
InlightofwhatPutinissayingheplanstodo,inlightofwhathisobjectivesareandthe
wayheconductshisexercises,youhavetorespondtothat.Otherwise,you'resetting
yourselfupforafiasco.
Teri:Nice,shortanswer.Nile.
Nile:Itdoesn'ttakeawholepivotthoughtodeterRussia.Chinahasbeengrowingby10
percentperannumsinceDengXiaoping'smarketreformsin1978.Ifyoulookouttothe
middleofthecentury,evenwithaslowingdownoftheeconomythatweseenowin
China,ChinaishopingthattheChineseDream,onthe100thanniversaryofthe
establishmentofthePeople'sRepublicofChinain2049,willbethedominantpower.
TheUnitedStateshastobetheretoengageit,todissuadeit,andtoshapetheregionto
ourliking.Notbecauseit'sadirectthreatyet,butwedon'tknowaboutthefuture.We
havetodobothofthesethingsatthesametime.Yes,Russiamoreattentionnow,butthat
doesn'ttakeapivot.
Teri:Youwrotethatitcouldbeby2030.IthinkIreadoneofyourpapersthatsaidit
couldbeifnotthe,atleastadominantpoweralreadyby2030.CantheUSevenaffordto
lookawayfromAsia?
Nile:UShastogrow.Weneedagrowthstrategyaswell,whichiswhywecantalk
abouttheTransPacificPartnershipandTTIP.Thosearethetwosidesoftheflying
buttressesthatholdupthefutureglobaltradingregimethatwewouldliketoseeinthe
21stcentury.It'sessential.It'sbothAsiaandEurope.
Teri:Thankyou.
Constanze:RussiachallengesfundamentalEuropeanvaluesandprinciples.Principleof
sovereignty,selfdetermination,agencyofcivilsocieties.Thatcannotbelettostand.

p.24

Wearegoingtohavetocounterthat.We'regoingtohavetocontainit.We'regoingto
havetodeteranddefend.Wewillhavetodothatwithhardpower.Wewillhaveto
increaseourdefensebudgetsanddeployhardforceswhereverthatisnecessary.
However,thateffortalsohasasoftpowerside.Itstartswiththeresilienceofour
societies,ofoureconomies,andourpoliticalsystems.ThatiswheretheEUcomesin.
ThatiswherenationalgovernmentsintheEUcomein.
Again,I'mnotatallideologicalaboutthis,althoughIdofirmlybelieve,unlikeNile,that
theEUhasaroletoplayhere.
[laughter]
Constanze:Thissoftpowerarenaisultimatelyourprimaryresponsibility,butitisone
whereAmericacanhelpus.TTIP,forexample,hasroletoplayinoureconomic
prosperity.TTIPisagoodidea,who'sstrategicimportancegoeswellbeyonditsfree
tradezone,butthathasbeenbadlysupported.Inmyowncountry,100,000peoplewent
onthestreetsagainstitrecently.
WealsohavetowinthewarthattheRussiansarewagingagainstusinthesocialmedia
zone.TheyarefundingfascistpartiesinEurope.
[crosstalk]
Teri:Inresponse,theEUisnotfundingafivepersonbureau.TheEU'scountertroll
unitisaboutfivepeople,whichdon'thaveabudget.They'reallseconded.
Constanze:Yeah,butNATOhasacenterofstrategiccommunicationinLatvia.Again,
youhavetoaskyourselfwhereyouwanttoputthis,andyoudon'twanttoduplicate.
Therealityis,again,Idon'tthinkthatoneshouldfightpropagandawith
counterpropaganda.Youfightitbydefendingyourfree,open,andliberalsocieties.
Nile:HowcanInotrespond?Idoliketheideaofacountertrollunit.Thatsounds
excellent.
[laughter]
Teri:IthinkImadethatup.
Nile:TalkingofRussiadoesactuallyfeelabitlikeMoscowinthisarena,it'ssocold
here.
[laughter]

p.25

Nile:Youmakeaverygoodpoint,comparisonsbetweenRussiatodayandtheSoviet
Empire.Sure,theRussianpowerisnowhereasgreatasitwasunderthedaysofthe
Soviets.
However,IthinkVladimirPutinis,frankly,justasevilasmanyofthepeoplearoundthe
SovietEmpire.Amanwhocansupplymissiles,shootdownanairlineroverEastern
Ukraine,thisisbarbarismandsavagery.It'spureterrorism,backedbytheRussianState,
andweshouldnotforgetwhatwe'redealingwithintermsofstandinguptotheRussians.
TheRussiansunderstandonlyonething,andthatisamessageofstrengthandresolve.I
don'tthinkMr.PutincaresonejotwhatthelatestEUresolutionis.
Teri:That'snottrue,Nile.Thesanctionshavehurthiseconomy,andthat'sproven.You
don'tthinkhecares?
Nile:Well,sanctions,ofcourse,implementedbyindividualEuropeancountries...
Teri:UnderanEU...[laughs]
[crosstalk]
Nile:But,asyousay...No,no,no...
Teri:Maybewecanget[inaudible61:41].
Nile:WeneedtodistinguishbetweenthepoweroftheEuropeanUnionandthepowerof
thenationstates.Idon'tseewhyyouthinkthatis...
Teri:Theycould,all28,havedoneitunilaterally,buttheydidn't.
Nile:Peoplewilldieforthenationstate.They'renotgoingtodiefortheEuropean
UnionIcanassureyouthatonbattlefield.VladimirPutinknowsthis,andthisisnot
alaughingmatterhere.Mr.PutinunderstandswhenNATOstandsuptoRussian
expansionism.HeunderstandswhentheUnitedStatesstandsuptotheRussian
superpower.
Unfortunately,atthemoment,thereisn'talotofUSleadership,andtheRussianreason,I
think,hasbeenfundamentallydisastrous.Weneedtobevery,veryclearwithregardto
whatwe'redealingwith,intermsoftheRussianthreat.
VladimirPutinisquitecapableofdoingwhathehasdonealreadyintheCrimea,in
Ukraine,andinGeorge,tootherpartsofEurope,especiallytheBalticStatesPoland,
forexamplewithverygoodreason.LeadersintheBalticsandinEasternCentral
EuropearedeeplyconcernedabouttheRussianthreat,andalsoaboutthelackof
Americanleadershiponthisissue.

p.26

They'realsoconcernedaboutthelackofleadershipcomingfrominsideofEurope,as
well,onthismatter.There'sanawfullotofappeasementoftheRussians,especially
comingfromGermanyandFrance,Imightadd.
Itisimportantthat,onbothsidesoftheAtlantic,weseethekindofleadershipthatis
neededtostanduptowhatis,inmyview,abrutalregimeinMoscow,thathastobe
confronted.
Teri:Anotherquestion.#MIDebate,everyone.
Constanze:Sorry.CanIjustmentionthatMerkelwasholdingtogetherthesanctions
consensus?
Teri:Youjustdid.
Constanze:Justfortherecord,foranybodywhoisn'tawareofthis.I'llwaiveontherest.
BatuKutelia:BatuKutelia,McCainInstitute,NextGenerationLeader.I'mfrom
Georgia.
Teri:IsuspectthiswillbeaboutRussia?
Batu:No,it'snotaboutRussia.It'sallaboutvisionandidea.Itwasmentionedthat
peoplewouldnotdiefortheEuropeanUnion.Peoplewilldiefortheidea,and
UkrainiansdiedinthestreetswiththeEuropeanFlagintheirhands.
Teri:That'sagoodpoint.
Batu:Now,comingtotheideaandthevision.Tonavigatethroughthetroubledwaters
fortransatlanticpartnership,weneedacompass.Thatcompasswasexisted,itwasan
ideal,Europewholeandfreeandinpeace.Butsomehowitdisappeared.
Yougetthebitsandpiecesofthisvision,whatshouldbethetransatlanticpartnership,or
what'sthefutureoftheEurope.
HowtheEuropeannationsorEuropeanleadersseethefutureoftheEurope,like,in
GermanyorinGreatBritain,andhowtheUSseesthefutureoftheEurope.Whatisthe
discrepancybetweenthosetwovisions.
Teri:Thankyou.
Isthereafundamentaldifferencebetweenhowthetwosidesoftheoceanseethefuture
ofEurope?Imean,weknowNile.
Nile:Well...
Teri:Quickanswers.

p.27

Nile:Letmerespondbythis...
Teri:Reallyquickanswers,guys.
Nile:IthinkthattheUnitedStatesshouldapplythesamevalueswithregardtoEurope
thatthey'reappliedhereathomeandrespectforsovereigntyandselfdetermination,the
righttodecideyourownfuture.
ThisisattheheartoftheEuropeandebateatthemoment,whichiswhyit'simportantthat
theUnitedStatesneedstobeontherightsideofhistoryhereratherthanlecturing
Europeansabouthowtheyshouldbevotingintheirreferendums.TheObama
administrationisissuingcountlessedictsonthisissue.Itisadirectinterventionin
internalaffairsthere.
Teri:Butit'shelpedyourvote,youbelieve,right?
Nile:Sorry?
Teri:It'shelpedyoursideofthevote,youbelieve.
Nile:It'sactually,itdoes,ironically,help,yes,that'scorrect.Butthatdoesn'tremovethe
factthatIthinkthattheideathatUSadministrationshouldbelecturingEuropeanpublics
abouthowtovoteontheirownparticularissuesofnationalsovereignty.
Teri:OK,butyou'vemadethatpointalready,sotalkaboutwhatthefutureofEurope.
Nile:WithregardtothefutureofEurope,it'sveryclearthattheUnitedStates,Ibelieve,
shouldbeinfavorofaEuropeofnationstatesratherthanasupranationalinstitution.A
supranationalentitydoesnotbenefittheUnitedStatesontheworldstage.
HenryKissingeroncespokeaboutthisideaofhavinga,justonephonelinetoEuropeor
onepersonpickingupthephone.Well,ifthatpersonisJeanClaudeJuncker,hewas
probablythemostantiAmericanfigure,actually,inEurope.That'snotexactlygoingto
helpWashington,isit?
IthinkthatUSpolicymakersneedtothinkthroughwhatis,inmyview,areallyoutdated
strategywithregardtothefutureofEurope.
Teri:OK.Thisside.Oneofyou?
Patrick:AsanAmerican,I'llsaytwothings.OnNATO,lookingatKurtVolkerand
perhapsothershere,10or15yearsago,therewasarealcoregroupthatwasexcitedand
animatedaboutaEuropewholeandfree.Theysawthatvisiontothetwoinstitutions,EU
enlargementandNATOenlargement.
Iwaspart,IliketothinkIwaspartofthatcommunity.Ithinkitwasimportant,itwasa
powerfulvision,itgaveapurpose.Wemadegreatprogressonthat,multipleroundsof

p.28

enlargement,inNATO28now,IforgethowmanyareintheEU.Thathasledtoamore
robust,moreresilientEurope,morerobust,resilienttransatlanticcommunity.
Myfearisthatoverthelasteightyears,becauseofalackofUSgovernmentcommitment
tothatvision,thathassortofdied.Asaresult,youcanfinddifferentpocketsandlevels
ofsupportandoppositiontothisvisionacrosstheAtlantic,evenacrossWashington,DC.
I'mkindofhopefulthere'sasilverliningtoPutin's[inaudible67:58]agenda,it's
reanimatingintheeyesofmanypeopletheimportanceandvalidityofthatvisionandthe
needtosupportit.
Teri:TheyhopedthatwouldmakeEuropeangovernmentsraisetheirdefensespending,
andithasn'texactlydoneso.
Patrick:Well,there'sbeenasmallprogressthatdirection.
Teri:Tiny.
Patrick:Notasmuchaswewouldwant,buttherehasbeen.Theinvitationto
Montenegroisastepintherightdirection.Butmoreisgoingtohavetobedonetoreally
givethisvisionreallifeandrenewedmomentum.That'sgotto,Ithink,reallyinclude
UnitedStatesstandingatthehelmonthis.
ButthenapointonNile's.Nile,I'mnotabigfanofbureaucracies.IknowtheEU
bureaucracyhasgoneoutofcontrolinsomecases.Butthat'snotareasontotrashtheEU.
That'snotareasontoblowitup.Reformit,yes.
ThenIwouldsayalso,Idon'tthinkithasbeenUSpolicy,DemocratorRepublican,to
driveabureaucratizationoftheEU.Wewanttoseepoliticalcomity,wewanttosee
economicintegration.Ithinkthat'sapositivething.
AssomeoneofCentralEuropeandescent,theEUhasdonegreatthingsforCentral
Europe.WehavehighwaysandpipelinesthatcomefromEUfunding.That'sbeena
benefit.
Yes,it'saninstitutionthathasitsfaultsanditsquirksanditsinefficiencies.But
ultimately,it'sdoneagoodthingforEurope,it'sdoneagoodthingforthetransatlantic
relationship.
Teri:CanItakeanotherquestionfrom[inaudible69:20]?
Constanze:I'dliketojumpinonthis.
Teri:Reallyquickly,Ineedaquestionfromthisside.
Constanze:No,I'dliketojumpinonthequestionofEuropewholeandfree,because
thisdoesmatterandalso,itspeakstoNile'sabsurdpointaboutGermanappeasement.

p.29

Teri:Shewouldn'tletitgo.
Constanze:Yeah,andI'mnot,no,I'mnotgoingtoletthatgo,becauseIcan't.It's
insulting.It'salsojustfactuallywrong,whichiswhyit'sinsulting.
Nile:It'strueactually,yeah,Ithink.
Constanze:Butthe,here'sthedeal.
IthinkthatinBerlin,itisfullyunderstoodthatthestability,prosperity,andyes,
democratictransformationofEurope'seasternperipheryisin,notjustinlinewithour
mostfundamentalvalues,andthevaluesinformedthedemocraticrevolutionsof1989in
EastGermanyandinPolandandinHungaryandelsewhere.Butisalsoinlinewithour
strategicinterests.
GermanyforeignministryisfullyinvestedinUkrainiantransformation.Thereisawhole
specialtaskforcethatspendsagreatdealofattentiononworkingwiththeUkrainians,on
progressacrosstheentirespectrumofeconomic,politicalandcivilsociety
transformation.
TheGermansarefullyinvestedintheWarsawSummitandinthecommitmentsof
Wales.
Ithinkthatyouwouldfinditveryhardtofault,youcandisagreewith,Iwouldpreferto
havethePolesandtheNormandyadminformats.IwouldliketohavetheUSplayinga
greaterroleinthere.IwouldliketocertainlyhavetheUKplayamuchlargerrolein
counteringPutinandinthediplomacyandinthetransformationaleffortsthereinthe
region.
ButtosuggestthattheGermansareappeasing,tosuggestthattheGermansaremorally
onthewrongsideofthestory,isdeeplywrong.Thankyou.
Teri:Patrick,canIgotoanotherquestion?Ordoyouhave?
Patrick:Well,aonelineronthatwouldbeinbetweenthesetwopositionshere,because
thereisamiddleground,widemiddleground.That's,Europeneedstopivotbackto
takingsecurityseriously.ItneverstoppedmatteringtotheUnitedStates,butitdidstop
caringalotaboutsecurity.
It'scatchingupnow,it'sstartingtoturnthecorner.Theseareveryreassuringwords,but
we'dliketoseemore.
Teri:Sure.
Patrick:IftheEuropeanUnionisgettinginthewayofeffectivedefense,thenI'm
worriedaboutthat.Ifit'snot,ifit'scomplementary,thenthat'sagoodthing.

p.30

Teri:ThatanswersoneofthequestionofmyotherTwitterquestioners,Zebulon
Carlander,thankyouforwriting.
Questionhere?
AudienceMember:Hello,mynameisDanielRobinsonandI'mafreelanceforeign
policywriter.Anyway,Ihaveaquestion.
GivenRussia'serraticbehaviorinthelastnumberofyears,theirdeploymentofthegas
weaponaswellastheimplementationoftheIrandeal,shouldaRepublicanpresident
succeedPresidentObama?Couldthatpotentiallybeanothercentralfracturepointforthe
EUandtheUS,giventheEU'sdepressedeconomicstate,andalsogivenRussia'srecent
actions[inaudible72:07]diversificationcrisisthey'refacingintermsofenergy?
Constanze:Therearetwoanglestothis.One,IwouldreallyliketoseetheUSgetridof
itsprohibitionofexportingenergy,whichwouldbeveryhelpful.Iwouldliketoseethe
EUgoingaheadwithEuropeanizingtheoilandgasmarket,particularlythegasmarket.
Beforeanybodyraisesit,I'llraiseNordStream2,thepipelinethatisdesignedto
circumventUkraineandtheBaltics.Idon'tlikethepoliticalsignalthatthissendsfrom
thecompaniesthatarerunningthis.ThisisaGazpromplus,Ithink,fiveEuropean
companies,includingtheUK,bytheyway,justincasewe'regettinginthatdirection
again.
Idon'tlikeit,butwedon'thavethekindofsystemwherethegovernment,unlesswe're
operatinginasanctionsenvironment,likeonIran,wherethegovernmentcanactually
say,"Youcan'tdothis."IcouldseeitverywellrunningupagainstEUCommission
rules,forwhich,bytheway,theEUCommissionwouldbeveryuseful.
Ialso,frankly,don'tthinkit'sgoingtobeeconomicallyviable.It'squestionable,even
whetherNordStream1isgoingtobeeconomicallyviable.
TheotherthingisthattheUkrainianshaveworkedveryhardandverywellontheir
storagecapacities.
Teri:WithEUhelp.
Constanze:WithEUhelp,exactly.ThereverseflowofgastoUkraineisnowinsucha
statethatIthinkwehavefarlesstoworryaboutthanwedid,saytoyearsago.Itis
certainlytruethatRussianbehavioronthisfronthasreallymobilizedpeople.The
problemhereispeopleliketomentionthatGermanyimports36,39percent,depending
onhowyoucount,ofitsoilandgasfromRussia.
ThesmallerEuropean,EasternEuropeaneconomiesare100percentdependenton
Russianoilandgas.ThethreeBalts,Bulgarians,Romanians,thatiswherethereal
problemslie.

p.31

Teri:Lessso,now.
Constanze:...andthat'swherewe.Lessnow,yes,butthatiswherewereallyneedto
work.Inotherwords,that'saliveissuethatpeopleareworkingon,butthatneedsmore
work.
Teri:Thistimeofyear,it'salwayshuge,becauseRussiastartscausingproblemsand
cuttingofftheflowtocountrieslikeBelgium,whereIlive.MostoftheEuropean
countriesdoneedsomeofthatgas.
Nile,youwantedtosaysomethingaboutthat?Quickly,veryquick,oneminute.
Nile:I'mgladthat,Daniel,youmentionedIran,whichhasn'treallybeendiscussed
tonight,anextremelyimportantissue.IwouldhopethattheynextUSpresidentwould
tearupthisabominableagreementwithTehran,whichfranklyamountstoasurrenderto
theirdemands.IcanseewhytheEuropeanUnionwassodeeplyinfavorofit.
[laughter]
Nile:OntheissueofIran,it'sinterestingtonot,theplaneloadsofofficialsand
businessmenflyinginfromBerlinandParis,intoTehran,followingthatdeal.
Teri:AndtheUK,Ithink.
Nile:Whichiswhyitwassoimportant,Ithink,forEuropeancountriesbackingthis
agreement.It'slargelyaboutmoney.Whereas,IthinktheIranissueshouldbeviewed
throughtheprismofsecurity,thefutureofthefreeworld,andpreventingIranfrom
becominganuclearpower.Idon'tthinkthisagreementdoesthatatall.
Ithinkthat,withanewadministrationcoming,ifindeeditisarepublicanadministration,
thenIwouldexpecttoseethisIranagreementtobeprobablytorntoshreds,actually.
Thatwill,ofcourse,raiseimportantissuesintermsoftransatlanticdebate.Ithinkyou're
veryrighttoberaisingthisissue.
ItwillbeamajorareaofcontentionbetweentheUnitedStatesandEuropeifanew
administrationcomesinandtearsuptheagreement.I'dexpectarepublican
administrationtoactuallydothat.
Teri:CanItakeanotherquestion?Anythingyouneedtosay?
OK.Onemorehere.I'lltakebothofthese,andthenwe'vegottogo.I'mgettingthewrap,
somakeitreally,reallyfastplease.
AnnThompson:AmIon?MynameisAnnThompson,formerlywithUSAIDand
WorldVision,andinternationalpublichealthconsultant.Ifeachofyoufour
distinguishedspeakersweretappedtoadvisepolicytothecurrentadministration,what
wouldyourtwotoppolicypointadvicebe?

p.32

Howwouldthatbesimilarordifferentifthesameopportunityweregivenfora
republicanadministration,withthebackdropofAmericannotleadingfrombehind?
Teri:I'lltakethisquestion,too,andthenyoucanchoosewhichoneofthoseyouwant
frommypanelists,becausethenwehavetogo.Sorry,Ican'tseeyouguysverywell.
Gary:Yeah,Iknow.Badlight.I'mGarySergeant.I'maretiredArmySpecialForces
officer.IspentadayortwointheLevantinmylife,andIalsospentadayortwoin
Germany.I'vegottoholdmyselfcalm,justforahair.Peopleforgetthatabout14years
ago,wetookdowntheTalibanwithabout100specialoperators.
Teri:Sothat'senough?
Gary:Peopleforgetthatfact,butthebottomlineisthatinitial,gradualinsertionand
helpingindigenouscapabilitybebuiltisactuallynottheworstpolicyintheworld.
Teri:Italkedtosomebodyontheothersideofittoday,too,justinpreparationforthis,
whosays,"Iftheadministrationwereserious,theywouldbedoingalotmorethanthat,"
thatthat'saBandAid.
Gary:Yeah,anditmaybetrue.TheotherpointisIthinkanemboldenedIranwas
directlyrelatedtoourfailuresinIraq.
[crosstalk]
Teri:Thatwasacomment.Youdon'thaveaquestion.
Gary:I'djustlovehearyourcomments.
Teri:Allright.Thisisourlastquestion,andthenyouaregoingtohaveoneminuteeach
towrapup,beforeIgethauledoff,gonged.Shoot.
[crosstalk]
Teri:Whichonedoyouwanttotake?Oneminute,please.
Nile:Advicetothecurrentpresident,next,nextpresident,extremelygoodquestion.I
wouldsay,firstly,you'vegottoconfrontISISanddefeatISISandthebroaderIslamist
terroristthreat.That'stheimmediateprioritythathastobeaddressed.
IdothinkPresidentObama'sadeerintheheadlightsatthemoment.Hedoesn'thavea
clearstrategyatall,andthatshowsontheworldstage.Frankly,it'sembarrassingforthe
world'ssuperpowertobeprojectingthatkindofmessage.
Secondly,IthinkthattheUnitedStateshastobeseriousaboutconfrontingnotonlyIran's
nuclearprogram,butalsoitsambitionsintheMiddleEasttobetheregionalsuperpower
there.That'sapointraisedbythegentlemanthere.

p.33

Athirdpoint,you'vegottoconfronttheRussians,andstanduptoRussianaggressionin
Europe,andalsosendamessagetotheRussiansthattheycan'tasserttheirinfluenceas
theyseefit,wherevertheywanttointheMiddleEast.
ThisisaresultofavacuumofAmericanleadershipintheMiddleEast.TheRussians
havemovedinthere.You'vegottosendthatmessagetoRussiathattheUnitedStatesis
stillpreparedtoleadontheworldstage.Weneedtohaveapresidentwhoreallyhasa
backboneandiswillingtolead,astheworld'ssuperpowermustlead.
Teri:OK,oneminute,eachofyou.
Patrick:Especiallyforthenextadministration,again,wedon'treallychoosewhatwe
havetodealwithinsecurity.Wearegoingtohavetomanageothermajorpowerslike
ChinaandRussia,especiallywhentheyactinarevisionistmanner.
We'regoingtohavetodealwithtransnationalterrorismandgroupsliketheIslamist
State.We'regoingtohavetodealwithIranandNorthKorea.Wehavetodealwithallof
thesethings.Whatarethetwothingsthenextadministrationshoulddo?
Inthemostsimpleterms,itneedstonegotiatefromstrength,soitneedstohavetheforce
structureandtheleadershipbehindittouseandforceandpowertoachievethestrategic
resultswewantvisvisthesebigstrategicissues.
Wealsoneedtousesoftpower,andsinceyou'refromAID,orwere,weneedsome
imaginationonhowwemobilizeinternationalsupport,becausewe'renotgoingtopayfor
allthemoney,forhumandevelopmentinitiativeforthe21stcentury.
That'sgoingbeyondjustthepovertyreductionthathasbeenthefocusofalotofthe
developmentwork.It'scapturingandcompetingwiththingsliketheChineseSilkRoad
idea.They'regoingtobuildmoreinfrastructurethanwecan,butwehaveideasfor
technology,forhealthcare,fortheenvironment,andforenergyandeducation.
EuropeandAsia,allies,andtheUnitedStatescandoalotwiththat.
Constanze:Afghanistan,don'tgetmestarted.Iwasthereanumberoftimesasa
reporter,thefirsttimeinJanuaryof2002,whenthingswerestillquiterough.
IhavegoneforeveningwalksinKabulandKunduz,onmyown,withoutriskingmylife,
andIregretthefactthatthatisnolongerpossible.Ithinkthatweare,tosomedegree,to
blameforthat,butthatwouldbeanothereveningofconversation.
AsIthinkit'sbecomesomewhatclear,Idon'thaveaproblemwithusinghardforce
wherethatisnecessaryanduseful.ButmyadvicetothenextAmericanpresident,
whateverpartyheorshebelongsto,wouldbetoworkwithus,tohelpusgrowoutofthe
infantilecodependencythattoomanyofushavebeenfortoolongatime.

p.34

Helpusdo,onourown,whatweshould,byrightsandinyourinterests,bedoingonour
own.Helpusdoitinsuchawaythat,wheneverweneedtoworktogether,whetherit'son
politics,diplomacy,economics,trade,ormilitaryforce,wecancontinuetodosotogether
successfully.
Thatisactuallyquiteatallorder,butIthink,unlikesomeofushere,thattherecordof
EuropeworkingwiththeObamaadministrationhasreallynotbeensobad.Alotofgood
thingshavehappened,andthatmakesmereasonablyoptimisticforthefuture.
Teri:Ian?
Ian:Fromanationalsecuritypointofview,andI'veworkedmostlyinthe
politicalmilitaryrealms,IthinkthebiggestmistakeoftheObamaadministrationhas
beenthepresident'sconveyinganimpressionthattheUnitedStatesishesitanttouse
force,thatUSpolicyisdrivenbytheobjectiveofavoidingtheuseofforce.
I'mtryingtonotsoundlikeawarmonger,butthisadministrationandthenext
administrationhastodemonstratemoreclearlytheUnitedStatesiswillingtoregularly
useforcetodefenditsalliesandpartners,withouthesitation.That'sgoingtobe
important.
ThesecondrecommendationIhavewouldbethattheUnitedStateshastoseriously
restartresourcingstrategiccommunications.We'vebeentalkingforoverfiveyearsnow
abouthowwe'relosingtheinformationwar.Wereallyhaven'tdoneanything.Wehaven't
createdanyneworganizationalstructures.Wehaven'treallydedicatedanyserious
amountofresources.
Teri:NATOputsoutsomefactsheets.
[laughter]
Ian:NATOputsoutsomefactsheetsandhasseminars.NATOisnottheinstitutionfor
strategiccommunications.Itneverhasbeen.That'sanorganizationthat'sdesignedto
throwleaddownrange,notwritememosanddopapers.
BackduringtheColdWar,wehadtheUnitedStatesInformationAgency.Thatwasa
standaloneorganization,whosedirectorreporteddirectlytotheUSpresident.Itfocused
onnothingbutthefullgamutofstrategiccommunicationsoperations,everythingfrom
pressreleasestoTVtoradio,studentexchangestojointresearch.
Teri:They'restilldebatingwhethertoevenhavethatofficeinsideNATO.Isitstilla
debate?
[crosstalk]
Ian:Tome,it'sirrelevant.NATO'snottherole.ThishastobeaUSgovernmentpriority,
andithastobegivenitsownindependentdepartmentstatus,anditsownresourcepool.

p.35

Otherwise,we'regoingtobebehindinthatgame.ThisiswhereIthinkwe'rereally
furthestbehindwhenitcomesdowntodealingwithourcompetitors,beitlargestatesor
terroristorganizations.
Teri:Thanks.That,infact,wasgoingtobeourlastwrapupquestion.Thankyoufor
posingit.MyapologiestoTheresaBalen,whoIknowbackinBrussels,whowantedto
talkalotmoreaboutChina.
Thankyouverymuch.You'veallbeenagreataudience,laughedatourjokesandthings
thatweren'tsupposedtobefunny,too.
[laughter]
Teri:Iappreciatedit.Itwasreallyadelight.Thankyoutoallthepanelists.Youguys
weregreat.
[applause]
AmbassadorVolker:Thankyouverymuch.Letmealsojustaskyoutojoininthanking
TeriSchultzforkeepingitverylivelyand...
[applause]
AmbassadorVolker:Thankyou.Goodluckbravingthetraffic,andhaveaveryhappy
holiday.
Teri:Andit'sfreezingdownhere.

TranscriptionbyCastingWords