12/5/2015

ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux|EricoMatiasTavares|LinkedIn

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ThePoliticsofDystopiaRedux

EricoMatiasTavares

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Dystopia:acommunityorsocietythatisundesirableorfrightening.
Knowwhatsnotgreatfor
Chipotleburritosales?E.coli.
NourielRoubinirecentlypennedanarticletitledEuropesPoliticsof
qz.com

Dystopia,citingtheriseofnationalisticmovementsacrossEuropeasa

harbingerofterriblethingstocome.ItseemsthattherenownedDr.Doom
StarbucksKnowsMoreabout
oneofthefeweconomiststohaveanticipatedthe2008financialcrisisis
YouThanYouDo
Stephanie(Annie)Andrews
backinthelimelightwithsomemoredirewarnings.
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Ah,butthistimeheslate.Incaseyouhavebeenhibernating,theEuropean
Dowendsup370onstrong
jobsreport
Union(EU)isalreadyinacompletestateofdisarray.Everywhereyoulook
www.usatoday.com

economy,politics,security,society,demographicsthereareveryserious

problemswithnocrediblesolutioninsight.
SanBernardinoCoverage
ShowsHowShattered
America'sJournalismMarketIs
ThisdoesnotbodewellforthefutureoftheEU,startingwiththosewhowill
ClarissaBuch

belivinginit.

Forclimateoptimismlookto
Outofthetop10OECDcountrieswiththehighestyouthunemploymentrate,
urbaninnovation
BruceKatz

8areEUmemberstates,eachwithhighdoubledigitfigures.Politiciansmight
stillblametheEurozonefinancialcrisisforthisdiresituation,butthisis
nothingnew:theeconomicgrowthratesofmemberstateshavebeenverypoor
foroveradecadenow.ThefactisthattheEUhasconsistentlyfailedto
promotepoliciesthatcanprovidedecentemploymentopportunitiestoits
youngestcitizens.
Thatfirststepinthejobladderishugelyimportantforthefutureprospectsof
anygeneration.Thisoneisparticularlyimportantsincetheircontributionis
badlyneededtopayfortheirelderswelfare,aswellasallthefiscallargesseto
stimulatetheeconomyfacilitatedbytheECBsmonetizationof
unprecedentedlevelsofdebt.Someofthatstimulusfounditswayintothe
housingmarket.Goodfortheeconomyyousay,butterribleifyouneedtofind
cheaphousingtostartalife.
Oneconsequenceforthisgenerationiseasytopredict:nojob+expensive
housing=putoffstartingafamily.
Europesdemographicsisacomplicatedissue,butthecurrentsituationis
alarming.LessbabiesmeanslesspeopletopayforEuropesgenerouswelfare
andretirementsystems.Insteadofaddressingtheseproblemsheadon,EU

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politiciansprefertoletthemfester.Populismtrumpseverything.Afterbeing
electedPresidentofFrance,FranoisHollandeevenloweredtheretirement
age!
Europeansaresodesperatefornewbloodthattheywilltakeinvirtually
anybody,showeringthemwithsocialbenefitswhiledemandinglittle
integrationintotheirsocietiesinreturn.Theresultisgrowingpocketsof
alienatedminorities,portrayingadisintegratingsocialfabricespeciallyinthe
richestmemberstates.Swedenisaninterestingcasestudyinthisregard.For
decadesithasbeenthemostwelcomingcountryintheworldforrefugees,but
thefailuretoproperlyintegratethemisevidentinrampantcrimeand
decliningsocialperformancestatistics.
SwedenalsoshowcasesthecurrentvigoroftheEUsdiplomaticrelationsor
lackthereof.Earlierthisyear,SwedishforeignministerMargotWallstrom
daredtocriticizeSaudiArabiaforitsappallinghumanrightsrecord.A
sensibleandcourageouspositionyoumightsay,butonewhichgotherinto
hotwaterwithherownpeersbackhome,nodoubtreflectingpressurefrom
theSaudis.EventheSwedishking,largelyjustapoliticalfigurehead,chastised
herforsuchconduct.ItturnsoutthatonebrightspotofEuropeanindustryis
theburgeoningarmssalestosuchrepressiveregimes(perhapsbecausetheres
noneedtofakeemissions?).Thattheymightactuallyendupinthehandsof
extremistsisofnoconcern.
AndnowtheEUisfacingyetanothergiganticcrisis,unabletostoptheflowof
millionsofmigrantspouringin.Therehadbeenplentyofforewarningthat
somethingbigwasbrewing,evenbyEuropeslaxistimmigrationstandards.
ButonceagainEUleaderswerecaughttotallyonthebackfoot.The
responsewascompletelydisjointedasaresult,creatingevenmorediscord
amongmemberstates.
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Witnessingthissituation,ChancellorAngelaMerkelpubliclyannouncedafew
monthsagothatGermanywouldtakethemallin.Whetherthiswastopolish
herimageaftertheeconomicdisasterthathergovernmentimposedonthe
Greeks,reversetheageingdemographicsathomeorjustatonementforher
country'spast,wecan'tsay.Whatwedoknowisthatestimatesofthenumber
ofmigrantsintoGermanythisyearalonequicklysnowballedfrom400,000to
800,000to1.5million.Thelatestreportsuggeststhat14millioncouldsettle
betweennowand2020,inwhichcaseGermansocietywillbeirreversibly
impacted,perhapsevensoonerthanthat.
Accordingtoofficialstatistics,only1in5migrantsarrivinginGermanyin
2015areactuallyfromSyria.Socontrarytopopularbeliefthemajorityof
migrantsarenotrefugeesrather,theyareyoungmenseekingabetterlife.
Andwhywouldn'ttheycome,whenMerkelisdolingoutherfellowtaxpayers'
money?Whethertheywillfindajobisadifferentmatter,astheforeign
workerunemploymentrateisalreadymuchhigherthanthatofthenatives.
ThecostforGermanytodealwithallofthisisenormous,withestimates
suggestingthatoverthenexttwentyyearsitcouldeasilyrivalthealso
enormousreunificationcostwithEastGermany.Anditsthechildless
Germanswhowillfootthebill.
Facingcriticismanddivisivetensionsseldomseenathome,Merkelhadtoact.
Firstshetriedto
spreadthesemigrantsalloverEurope,claimingthatthiswas
thefairthingtodo.Severalcountriesrefused.ThenshewenttoTurkeyto
negotiateadealtostoptheinfluxatthesource.Sensingweaknessandinno
moodtodealwithEurope'smigrationproblems,PresidentErdoganpromptly
demandedaheftysumofcashtothinkaboutitandafasttracktojointheEU
(eventhenewIslamistgovernmentinLibyaisnowthreateningtoflood
Europewithmigrants,sothiscrisishasbecomeagreatwaytoholdtheEU
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hostagethankstotheEUitself).
ThelatestplanistoprovidewelfarebenefitsonlytoSyrianrefugees,speedup
processingtimesandtightensomebordercontrolshereandthere.Whattodo
withthehundredsofthousandsofothermigrantswithweakcaseswasnot
disclosed.Wespeculatethattheywillnotreturnhomeafteralltheywent
through,andassuchmightbecondemnedtoalifeinlimbo.Thispussyfooting
willalsonotstopthemillionsofothersalreadyontheirway.
Thesecurityrisksarestaggering.Ratherthanprotectingitsborders,allowing
Germanytoeventuallyregaincontrolofthesituationandprovideadequate
caretothosewhoarealreadythere,Merkelpreferstoriskthesocialfabricand
thesafetyofherfellowcitizens.Thinkaboutwhatamillionplusof
unemployedandalienatedyoungmencandoroamingaroundthecountry.
Andwhycantshedoit?Becauseshefearsthosesamepoliticsofdystopia
proposedbyRoubini.Eachmemberstatereinstatingitsbordersisan
intolerablestepbackinherquesttoabolishtheirnationalidentities.Inher
mindthesolutiontoeveryEUproblemismoreEU,andforsuremuchless
Germany,France,UKandwhomeverelse.
Perhapsthiscouldmakesenseifmemberstatenationalismwasreplacedbya
powerfulnewsenseofEuropeanidentity.Butwhowantstoembracethe
basketcasethattheEUhasbecome?Withsomeoftheleastcharismaticworld
leaderstoboot?Evenitsowncurrencyisflawed,promotingdeepstructural
imbalancesamongmemberstates.[evenitsowncurrencyisflawed!!!]
Worse,gettingridofnationalismmakestheEUvulnerabletobeingtakenover
byotherideologies.PerhapsthemostmenacingtoEuroperightnowistherise
ofpoliticalIslam.AnyIslamophobewilltellyouthatthedemographicsareon
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theirside,especiallyonceallthesenewmigrantssettlein.
Itwouldbeironic
thatthemostliberalcontinentontheplanetmightendupadoptingtheleast
liberalreligioninthecomingdecades.
Withallofthisunfolding,itisnaturalfortheEUsalliesandtradingpartners
tobeapprehensiveabouttheprospectsofitstayingtogether.TheUShaseven
warnedtheUKofdirecommercialconsequencesifitvotesitselfoutinthe
forthcomingreferendum.Well,forcingsomeonetostayagainsttheir
democraticwillisnotagreatsolutioneither.Notthatthevoiceofthepeople
acrossmemberstatesmattersinBrusselsanyway.
Now,wedonthighlightallofthisbecauseweliketoseeEuropeinthe
dumpster.Quitetheopposite.Itpainsustoseewhatisgoingonandthelack
ofleadershiptoconfrontwhataretrulyexistentialthreats.Theworldneedsa
strongEurope.Andforthattohappen,thecurrentpolitical,socialand
economicguidelinesneedtochange.
Roubinidoeshaveapoint.TherearepoliticsofdystopiaatworkinEurope.
Butheputstheblamesquarelyonthewrongside.
TheEUdoesn'tneedanynationaliststodestroyitsfutureprospects.Itsdoing
absolutelyfineonitsown.

Economics, EuropeanUnion, EuropeanPolitics

Writtenby

EricoMatiasTavares

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