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Contents
1
Executive summary
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
10
1.5
Sub-regional groupings
11
1.6
20
23
2.1
24
2.2
25
2.3
26
2.4
27
2.5
32
2.6
38
2.7
40
43
3.1
44
3.2
45
3.3
46
3.4
48
49
4.1
50
4.2
54
4.3
56
Executive Summary
The mobile industry in Sub-Saharan Africa continues to scale
rapidly, reaching 367 million subscribers in mid-2015. Migration to
higher speed networks and smartphones continues apace, with
mobile broadband connections set to increase from just over
20% of the connection base today to almost 60% by the end
of the decade. Falling device prices are encouraging the rapid
adoption of smartphones, with the region set to add more than
400 million new smartphone connections by 2020, by which
time the smartphone installed base will total over half a billion.
| Executive Summary
Executive Summary |
MOBILE ECONOMY
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
Unique subscribers and SIM connections
CONNECTIONS*
2015
386m
*Excluding M2M
2015
518m
722m
2020
982m
Smartphones
57% 540m
2015
24%
160m
2020
2015
2020
$40bn
2015-20
2015
$51bn
5%
CAGR
2020
Operator capex of up to
$72bn
2014-20
Delivering digital
inclusion to the still
unconnected populations
Delivering financial
inclusion to the
unbanked populations
Mobile internet
penetration 23% in 2015,
37% in 2020
Delivering innovative
new service and apps
Number of M2M
connections to reach
30m by 2020
2014
$102bn
2020
2014
5.7%
GDP
$166bn
8% GDP in 2020
Public funding
Employment
2m JOBS
$15bn
2.7m JOBS
2014
$20bn
2020
2014
2020
Mobile market
regional overview
49%
25%
200
235
272
309
348
386
417
445
471
495
518
11%
7%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Penetration
2020
13%
9%
6%
5%
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Asia Pacific
6%
4%
Global
average
5%
3%
3%
2%
CAGR 2010-15
3%
4%
Latin
America
1% 1%
1% 1%
Northern
America
Europe
CAGR 2015-20
1. HHI: A commonly accepted measure of market concentration, represented on a scale of 0 (evenly distributed competition) to 10,000 (no competition).
0%
6%
4G
6%
51%
3G
43%
2G
94%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
10
1.5
Sub-regional
groupings
11
12
49%
ssa
43%
EAC
23%
36
2010
45
41
2011
2012
51
2013
57
2014
63
2015
69
2016
74
2017
86
82
78
UNIQUE
SUBSCRIBERS (m)
25%
Subscriber
penetration (%)
2018
2019
2020
82+17+1M 45+44+11M
2014
2G
3G
4G
2020
52%
86
71
9%
2%
1
2010
2011
2012
2013
Smartphone
connections (M)
13
2014
21
2015
31
2016
Smartphone
adoption
56
43
2017
2018
2019
16%
2020
Share of regional
smartphone connections
13
14
50%
49%
ssa
ECCAS
15
19
2010
2011
23
2012
29
2013
36
2014
43
2015
50
2016
57
2017
79
72
64
2018
2019
UNIQUE
SUBSCRIBERS (m)
32%
29%
Subscriber
penetration (%)
2020
84+15+1M 61+35+4M
2014
2G
3G
4G
2020
54%
80
66
8%
3%
1
2010
2011
2012
2013
Smartphone
connections (M)
13
2014
20
2015
30
2016
Smartphone
adoption
40
2017
52
2018
15%
2019
2020
Share of regional
smartphone connections
15
16
51%
49%
ECOWAS
30%
ssa
2010
116
98
2011
2012
135
2013
149
2014
163
2015
176
2016
187
2017
198
2018
216
207
2019
UNIQUE
SUBSCRIBERS (m)
25%
83
Subscriber
penetration (%)
2020
84+15+1M 43+56+1M
2014
2G
3G
4G
2020
52%
42%
38%
3%
5
10
20
2010
2011
2012
32
2013
Smartphone
connections (M)
50
2014
72
2015
97
2016
Smartphone
adoption
125
2017
156
2018
190
2019
227
2020
Share of regional
smartphone connections
17
18
54%
SADC
2010
98
88
2011
2012
107
2013
121
2014
132
2015
140
2016
147
153
159
2018
2019
164
UNIQUE
SUBSCRIBERS (m)
25%
76
49%
ssa
36%
Subscriber
penetration (%)
2017
2020
76+23+1M 40+49+11M
2014
2G
3G
4G
2020
59%
53%
35%
4%
8
13
20
29
2010
2011
2012
2013
Smartphone
connections (M)
43
2014
63
2015
87
2016
Smartphone
adoption
113
2017
141
2018
167
2019
192
2020
Share of regional
smartphone connections
19
28.5
29.9
32.8
36.1
38.4
39.8
42.2
44.3
46.3
48.5
50.8
5%
1%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Revenue
Revenue growth is forecast at a CAGR of 5% per annum
out to 2020, down from just under 7% in the first half of
the decade. This reflects a number of factors, including
the slowdown in subscriber growth but also the uptake
of IP-based voice and messaging services from the
major international players, such as WhatsApp and
Skype. Services developed by local players, such as Mxit
and 2go, have also begun to gain traction. Countries
with high smartphone adoption rates are increasingly
susceptible to revenue cannibalisation from the use
of internet-based voice and messaging services. For
example, in South Africa, where smartphone adoption
is 30%, Vodacom has seen a steady decline in its
20
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Annual growth
voice and messaging revenues since 2010. In contrast,
Safaricom in Kenya, where smartphone adoption is
15%, continues to record positive voice and messaging
revenue growth (Safaricom recorded a 3.7% year-onyear growth in voice revenue and 14.8% year-on-year
growth in SMS revenue in financial year 2014/15).
The challenge for operators is to continue to monetise
the growth in data traffic and the growing uptake of
data-centric services by consumers. Data revenues
now account for more than 10% of recurring revenues
in many countries in the region, and more than a third
of revenues in more advanced countries such as South
Africa.
Source: TowerXchange
29%
47,500
25,510
16,661
<1%
6,000
9,000
100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2. TowerXchange
21
6.8%
CAGR 2015-20
22
2012
2013
2014
10
2015
11
2016
12
12
2017
2018
13
2019
14
2020
Mobile enabling
innovation and
social change in
Sub-Saharan Africa
23
Source: The Next Africa Aubrey Hubrey and Jake Bright, Crunch Base, TNA Analysis
608
414
41
2012
128
2013
24
2014
2018 (Est.)
25
4. Source: Ipsos study conducted on behalf of PayPal and First National Bank
26
At the end of 2014, a fifth of the population in SubSaharan Africa had access to the mobile internet,
including about 13% that could access high-speed
broadband services through mobile phones. In contrast,
less than 0.5% of the population had access to fixed
broadband services. The GSMA expects mobile internet
access in the region to increase further over the period
to 2020, with 200 million more individuals gaining
37%
23%
Sub-Saharan Africa
49%
45%
33%
29%
Developing countries
2014
World
2020
5. GNI: gross nation income per capita, which is GPD plus the income received from overseas
6. Bridging the gender gap: Mobile access and usage in low- and middle-income countries, GSMA, 2015
27
28
36% 36%
Regional average
Kenya
Zimbabwe
Senegal
Niger
DRC
Ghana
Sierra Leone
Rwanda
Malawi
Zambia
Uganda
Madagascar
Tanzania
Gabon
29
Taxation in Ghana
A recent study conducted for the GSMA by Deloitte has looked in detail at how the tax system could
be reformed to make mobile affordable for the average Ghanaian. The study shows the following:
Taxes account for almost a quarter of the cost of mobile ownership in Ghana, significantly above
the regional average.
Mobile is one of the more heavily taxed sectors in Ghana, and mobile operators pay $650 million in
taxes each year, representing about 40% of total revenues in the sector.
Mobile handsets are subject to taxes of up to 37.5%, through VAT, the National Health Insurance
Levy (NHIL) and customs duties, which were reintroduced in 2013.
Mobile services such as calls, SMS and data usage are subject to VAT, NHIL and an additional
Communications Services Tax (CST) of 6%.
The government has raised the possibility of an additional tax of GHS5 ($1.35) on the activation of
SIM cards.
Source: Digital inclusion and mobile sector taxation in Ghana, GSMA, 2015
30
31
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
Eastern Africa
Jun-13
Sep-13
Western Africa
Dec-13
Southern Africa
12. State of the Industry: Mobile Financial services for the Unbanked, 2014, GSMA, 2014
13. World Bank Global Findex
32
Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Central Africa
17
24
73
76
84
116
134
154
189
225
333
346
393
Botswana
Zimbabwe
479
501
762
Uganda
1018
Kenya
1208
Tanzania
33
MALI
NIGER
SENEGAL
BURKINA FASO
Tigo
BENIN
TOGO
Orange
Cte dIvoire
MTN
Airtel/MTN
East Africa
MOOV
Safaricom/Vodacom
KENYA
Airtel/Orange
RWANDA
Airtel
DEMOCRATIC
REPUBLIC OF THE
CONGO
TANZANIA
ZAMBIA
34
TS
EN
/
2P
(G
G
P2
/
2B
/B
)
C2B
MFIS
Microinsurance
Loan & insurance
disbursements &
repayments
BOTH
Pay
me
nt
s&
DI
SB
UR
SE
M
Education
Registration & fees
payments
Government
Tax collection, License
payments
Pension, social aid &
subsidies
MobilE Money
Accounts / P2P
E-Commerce
Online payments
B2
B)
Physical Retail
Proximity payments
B2B supplier
payments
NGOs
Aid disbursements
(C2
B/
C)
(B2
S
NT
ME
E
RS
BU
Employers
Salary & other
disbursements
Primarily Paym
ents
Agriculture
Output payment &
subsidies
Loan repayments
B2B supplier payments
Health
Bill payments
Transportation
Payment & ticketing
PR
I
M
AR
ILY
Mobile enabling innovation and social change in Sub-Saharan Africa |
35
DI
S
14. Regulatory reform: A conversation with the Bank of Ghana on the journey towards the new guidelines for e-money issuers, GSMA, 2015
36
37
Gender gap
3-2-1 Madagascar
3-2-1 is a free on-demand mobile information service from HNI and Airtel in
Madagascar that provides a variety of information to listeners, including a module
on gender-based violence that informs what the law deems as unacceptable
behaviour and where to seek help. The toll-free number, 321, is available 24 hours a
day. Callers are greeted by a welcome message in their local language; there is then
a series of voice prompts through the menu until they find the trusted information
they need. The service has more than 200,000 unique users every month,
submitting 800,000 enquiries to the service every month15.
Agriculture
15. Bridging the gender gap: Mobile access and usage in low- and middle-income countries, GSMA, 2015
38
Health
Utilities
Nutrition
39
40
Network 2020
The GSMAs Network 2020 programme is designed to
help mobile network operators in the move to an all-IP
world and help them deliver global, interconnected
all-IP communications services to consumers such
as voice over LTE, video over LTE (ViLTE), voice over
Wi-Fi (VoWi-Fi) and RCS. Operators are in a unique
position to offer secure, ubiquitous all-IP solutions with
reach, reliability and richness. The transition will allow
them to deliver an enhanced customer user experience
that when interconnected with other operators
offers truly global reach and scale. The programme is
already helping operators from around the world to
migrate from circuit-switched technology to an all-IP
infrastructure while helping them to maintain service
continuity.
Digital Commerce
commerce deployments. Covering many topics,
these specifications set out a common framework of
requirements to ensure interoperability and an efficient
and consistent development and deployment of mobile
commerce services.
41
Personal Data
The GSMAs Personal Data programme is working with
mobile operators that have launched identity services
across the globe. The mobile industry needs to deliver
common and consistent interfaces to a range of digital
service providers, which at the same time need to offer
seamless and convenient solutions to consumers.
42
Mobile a key
driver of growth
and employment in
Sub-Saharan Africa
43
31
1.72%
4
Network
operators
44
0.22%
0.17%
0.17%
0.12%
Content,
applications and
other services
Distributors and
retailers
Infrastructure
providers
Handset
manufacturers
50
102
2.8%
12
31
5.7%
0.5%
0.7%
1.7%
Mobile
operators
Related
industries
Indirect
Productivity
Total
Direct
17. The overall contribution figure is significantly higher than that calculated in the 2014 report. There has been a large increase in the productivity factor, driven by a change in the methodology used to calculate
GDP in Nigeria.
45
Source: GSMA Intelligence analysis, totals may not add up due to rounding.
1319
23
Infrastructure
46
325
60
Operators
Handset
manufacturing
Distribution
234
1960
Content, apps
and services
Direct
2445
4405
Indirect
Total
Mobile services
vat
15
Total tax
Handset vat
Corporate tax
47
Outlook to 2020
$ billion
8%
6%
102
2014
114
2015
125
2016
Total value
added
48
136
2017
146
2018
Percentage of GDP
contribution
156
2019
166
2020
Pivotal role of
regulation in
allowing mobile
to realise its full
potential
49
50
1047
500
1090
500
610
600
613
610
610
610
250
250
250
250
250
250
30
547
US
590
EU
128
130
20
330
220
363
232
340
360
Ghana
Kenya
Nigeria
Senegal
South
Africa
Tanzania
Unassigned spectrum
Assigned spectrum
51
52
53
54
55
56
19. Assessing the case for in-country mobile consolidation, GSMA, 2015
57
58