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Monthly water stress: The relevance of temporally

explicit water impact assessment in global crop production

Stephan Pfister and Peter Bayer

ETH Zurich, Institute for Environmental Engineering, Ecological Systems Design Group Email contact: pfister@ifu.baug.ethz.ch

Engineering, Ecological Systems Design Group Email contact: pfister@ifu.baug.ethz.ch LCA XIII, Orlando, October 1, 2013 1

LCA XIII, Orlando, October 1, 2013

1

Engineering, Ecological Systems Design Group Email contact: pfister@ifu.baug.ethz.ch LCA XIII, Orlando, October 1, 2013 1

Overview water stress assessment

(characterization factors)

So far annual water stress factors with global coverage

available

Monthly water scarcity factor from WFN (Mekonnen et al. PLOS 2011) has factors for 405 major watersheds

No data for Italy and many other arid areas

Linear relation with consumption-to-availability

• This work is based on annual water stress index (WSI) (Pfister et al. ES&T
• This work is based on annual water stress index (WSI)
(Pfister et al. ES&T 2009)
• Scaling from 0.01 to 1
(water deprivation factor)
• Applied in several LCA studies
-> experience of application
Scaling from 0.01 to 1 (water deprivation factor) • Applied in several LCA studies -> experience

2

Scaling from 0.01 to 1 (water deprivation factor) • Applied in several LCA studies -> experience

Overview water stress assessment

(characterization factors)

So far only annual water stress factors with global coverage

available (based on water use to availablility)

Monthly water scarcity factor from WFN (Mekonnen et al. PLOS 2011) has factors for 405 major watersheds

No data for Italy and many other arid areas

Linear relation

for Italy and many other arid areas • Linear relation • This work is based on

This work is based on annual water stress index (WSI)

(Pfister et al. ES&T 2009)

Scaling function (0.01 to 1)

(water deprivation factor)

Applied in several LCA studies -> experience of application

function (0.01 to 1) (water deprivation factor) • Applied in several LCA studies -> experience of
3
3
function (0.01 to 1) (water deprivation factor) • Applied in several LCA studies -> experience of
function (0.01 to 1) (water deprivation factor) • Applied in several LCA studies -> experience of

Deriving monthly WSI

Withdrawal-to-availability (WTA) based

Annual Watergap 2 (Alcamo et al. 2003)

Monthly adjustments based on Vorosmarty et al. (2000)

Include inter-annual precipitation variability:

geometric standard deviation (GSD year ) for 30 years

standard deviation (GSD y e a r ) for 30 years WTA * monthly  WTA

WTA

*

monthly

WTA

monthly

GSD

year

Adjust annual WSI function

(exclude factor for monthly precipitation variability)

WSI

monthly

factor for monthly precipitation variability) WSI monthly  1 *  9.8  WTA monthly 1

1

*  9.8  WTA monthly 1 1  e   1  0.01
*
9.8
 WTA
monthly
1
1
e
1
0.01

was “-6.4”

4

variability) WSI monthly  1 *  9.8  WTA monthly 1 1  e 
variability) WSI monthly  1 *  9.8  WTA monthly 1 1  e 
variability) WSI monthly  1 *  9.8  WTA monthly 1 1  e 

Annual WSI

Annual WSI 5
Annual WSI 5

5

Annual WSI 5

WSI January

WSI January 6
WSI January 6

6

WSI January 6

WSI February

WSI February 7

7

WSI February 7

WSI March

WSI March 8

8

WSI March 8
WSI April 9

WSI April

9

WSI April 9
WSI May 10

WSI May

10

WSI May 10
WSI June 11

WSI June

11

WSI June 11
WSI July 12

WSI July

12

WSI July 12

WSI August

WSI August 13

13

WSI August 13

WSI September

WSI September 14

14

WSI September 14

WSI October

WSI October 15

15

WSI October 15

WSI November

WSI November 16

16

WSI November 16

WSI December

WSI December 17

17

WSI December 17

Monthly WSI of selected rivers

WSI

Nile
Nile
Monthly WSI of selected rivers WSI Nile 18

18

Monthly WSI of selected rivers WSI Nile 18

Average monthly vs. annual WSI

Original WSI Average monthly WSI 19
Original WSI
Average monthly WSI
19
Average monthly vs. annual WSI Original WSI Average monthly WSI 19

Use weighted monthly vs. annual WSI

Original WSI
Original WSI
Use weighted monthly vs. annual WSI Original WSI Wei g hted monthl y WSI 20

Weighted monthly WSI

Use weighted monthly vs. annual WSI Original WSI Wei g hted monthl y WSI 20
Use weighted monthly vs. annual WSI Original WSI Wei g hted monthl y WSI 20
20
20
Use weighted monthly vs. annual WSI Original WSI Wei g hted monthl y WSI 20

Ratio weighted monthly vs. annual WSI

Monthly resolution reveals higher stress in many watersheds

Weighted monthly / annual WSI

stress in many watersheds Weighted monthly / annual WSI < 0.5 0.5-1 1-2 >2.0 Weighted monthly

< 0.5

0.5-1

1-2

>2.0

stress in many watersheds Weighted monthly / annual WSI < 0.5 0.5-1 1-2 >2.0 Weighted monthly
Weighted monthly WSI
Weighted monthly WSI

21

Original WSI

stress in many watersheds Weighted monthly / annual WSI < 0.5 0.5-1 1-2 >2.0 Weighted monthly

Crop water footprint

Water consumption (WC):

160 crops on monthly and 5 arc

minutes spatial resolution

(Pfister et al. ES&T 2011)

Water footprint (WFP):

WFP

mon

WFP

year

i

(

i

al. ES&T 2011) Water footprint (WFP): WFP mon WFP year    i  

WC WSI

i

i

WC

i

)

WSI

annual

22

al. ES&T 2011) Water footprint (WFP): WFP mon WFP year    i  
al. ES&T 2011) Water footprint (WFP): WFP mon WFP year    i  

Water footprint of a region

Marginal vs. average impact

Water footprint of a region • Marginal vs. average impact 23
Water footprint of a region • Marginal vs. average impact 23

23

Water footprint of a region • Marginal vs. average impact 23

Water footprint of a region (all crops)

Monthly Annual
Monthly
Annual
Water footprint of a region (all crops) Monthly Annual 24

24

Water footprint of a region (all crops) Monthly Annual 24

Conclusions

Temporal resolution is relevant

Mainly for foreground process (global picture does merely change)

Crop choice / plantation dates

Annual use-weighte average maps (sector-specific)

For background processes (incl. uncertainty)

Storage effects /residence time

Dams

Groundwater stocks

Water source (ground surface water) -> different impacts!

Include spatial & temporal resolution induced uncertainty (variability induced)

-> different impacts! • Include spatial & temporal resolution induced uncertainty (variability induced) 25

25

-> different impacts! • Include spatial & temporal resolution induced uncertainty (variability induced) 25

THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION!

T HANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! stephan.pfister@ifu.baug.ethz.ch  Paper submitted to J Clean Prod  Characterization

stephan.pfister@ifu.baug.ethz.ch

 Paper submitted to J Clean Prod  Characterization maps are published on: http://www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD/downloads/
 Paper submitted to J Clean Prod
 Characterization maps are published on:
http://www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD/downloads/
to J Clean Prod  Characterization maps are published on: http://www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD/downloads/ 26 www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD

26

www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD

to J Clean Prod  Characterization maps are published on: http://www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD/downloads/ 26 www.ifu.ethz.ch/ESD

BACKUP

SLIDES

BACKUP SLIDES LCA Food 2012 , Saint-Malo, October 2, 2012 27

LCA Food 2012 , Saint-Malo,

October 2, 2012

27

BACKUP SLIDES LCA Food 2012 , Saint-Malo, October 2, 2012 27

Europe

Europe January February May June September October 28 March July November April August D e c
Europe January February May June September October 28 March July November April August D e c
January February May June
January
February
May
June

September

Europe January February May June September October 28 March July November April August D e c
October
October

28

March
March
July
July
November
November

April

August
August

December

Europe January February May June September October 28 March July November April August D e c

Average ww (WSI mon )

WSI year

Average w w (WSI m o n ) W S I year 29 Rhone Rhine Po

29

Rhone

Rhine

Po

Nile

Murray

Missouri

w (WSI m o n ) W S I year 29 Rhone Rhine Po Nile Murray

Rhone

Rhine

Po

Nile

Murray

Missouri

w (WSI m o n ) W S I year 29 Rhone Rhine Po Nile Murray

UNCERTAINTY WSI (PFISTER & HELLWEG 2011)

U NCERTAINTY WSI (P FISTER & H ELLWEG 2011) 30
U NCERTAINTY WSI (P FISTER & H ELLWEG 2011) 30

30

U NCERTAINTY WSI (P FISTER & H ELLWEG 2011) 30

Pfister et al 2009: Water Stress Index (WSI)

Includes:

Withdrawal-to-availability (WTA)

Variability in precipitation (VF)

= geometric standard deviation (GSD)

Flow regulation (highly regulated = SRF)

*

WTA

Flow regulation (highly regulated = SRF ) * WTA       VF

VF WTA for SRF

VF WTA

for non - SRF

Index following logistic function:

WSI

non - SRF • Index following logistic function: WSI  1 1  e  6.4

1

1 e

6.4

*

WTA

1

0.01

1

31

non - SRF • Index following logistic function: WSI  1 1  e  6.4

31

non - SRF • Index following logistic function: WSI  1 1  e  6.4