Ranges (Up till 11.

50am HKT)
Currency

Currency

EURUSD

1.0590-1.06195

EURJPY

130.62-81

USDJPY

123.225-345

EURGBP

0.7095-0.7104

GBPUSD

1.4923-50

USDSGD

1.4115-38

USDCHF
AUDUSD

1.0182-1.0203
0.7284-0.7312

USDTHB
USDKRW

35.87-90
1164.0-1170.4

NZDUSD

0.6628-51

USDTWD

32.742-779

USDCAD

1.3339-55

USDCNH

6.4455-6.4511

AUDNZD

1.0976-1.1006

XAU

1046.5-1055

Key Headlines

Its over to Draghi but one article in FT said there

are opponents of QE could hinder ECB move
today.

Experts are composed to ECB move but to what

extend? General consensus for 10bp deposit rate
cut; some believe it may be as much as 20-30bp.

Usd opened firm versus Asians but towards the

end of morning, profit taking turned dollar
around.

Australia Oct trade deficit widened to

Aud3.305bn caused a weaker AudUsd but
China Caixin composite PMI came out strong
and AudUsd back to square one.

FX Flows
Frustration thats how market is playing this Euro
game. That report in Bloomberg that ECB policy makers
were presented with updated economic forecasts which
was unchanged from Sept has somehow gotten market
thinking. Then this FT article got people thinking harder.
It said that while ECB governing council will support
Draghi for more QE, there is resistance coming from 5
other members and this might water-down Draghis
plan.

hard to own AudUsd at these levels. In the rates spreads,

Aud is expensive versus Usd but nothing compared to
Nzd. He thinks both AudUsd and NzdUsd may have
found top in medium term.
Very boring session for UsdJpy with Nikkei trading
flattish. Those who sold into 123.50 are said to be
replenishing below 123.15. No BOJ participation in ETF
and board member Kuichi will be speaking today in
Tokyo at 3.30pm local.
We saw an interesting North Asian name purchasing
spot Gold near 1050.

Asians
Custodians were responsible to higher UsdKrw this
morning; opened 1164 and popped to 1170.4 in onshore
market. From our Asian desk Perry, there has been close
to US$1bn of equity outflow and this has been the main
cause of weak Krw.
Usd opened firm versus Asians but towards the end of
morning, profit taking turned dollar around.
USDCNH revisited 6.45-handle only briefly. Slightly
lower USDCNY fix at 6.3982 versus expectations of 6.40handle saw offshore pair given down to 6.4460. 1-month
ATM vols are looking softer being told profit taking by
macro names. 1-year forward points have eased away
from +2100 as well.
Gary from our Asian desk thinks that intraday traders
have gone long UsdThb and were covering the funding
today. This pushed the Thb T/N points up to 0.55 this
morning. Although some said this is a 3-day cover, 1-day
points were par to 0.05.
Constant selling of UsdPhp NDF futures from US names
this morning, not decent amount but very consistent.

Who said what

Experts are composed to ECB move but to what extend?

General consensus for 10bp deposit rate cut; some
believe it may be as much as 20-30bp.

EurUsd offers are said to be near 1.0640 and stop buy

orders thereafter. Fresh bids are now reported 1.058090. Trading around 1.0610 for longest time only to slip to
1.0592 in late morning.

Australia Oct trade deficit widened to Aud3.305bn from

previous months Aud2.317bn. Market was expecting
Aud2.6bn. That knocked Aussie from 0.7300 to 0.7284.
Caixin China composite PMI improved to 50.5 and that
gave Aud a lift to 0.73.-handle. Our trader Sam finds it

British lawmakers vote in favour of air strikes

against ISIS in Syria
S&P: Downgrades ratings on the non-operating
holding companies
Moodys names Bank of America, Bank of New
York Mellon, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase,
Morgan Stanley, State Street, Goldman Sachs
and Wells Fargo
Fitch: Chinese insurers face greater asset risks

News & Data

South Korea Nov Foreign Reserves $368.46bn

from $369.6bn

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

New Zealand Q3 Value of All Buildings Q/Q up

0.5% from +1.6%
Australia Nov AiG Performance of Services
Index 48.2 from 48.9
South Korea Q3 Final GDP Q/Q revised up 1.3%
from 1.2%
South Korea Q3 Final GDP Y/Y revised up 2.7%
from 2.6%
Australia Oct HIA new Home Sales M/M fell 3%
from -4%
Australia Oct Trade Deficit widened to
Aud3.305bn from Aud-2.317bn
Japan Nov Nikkei Composite PMI unchanged at
52.3
Japan Nov Nikkei Services PMI at 51.6 from 52.2
China Nov Caixin Composite PMI up 50.5 from
49.9
China Nov Caixin Services PMI at 51.2 from 52.0

AFR: Platinum International chief Kerr Neilson

sees $A retreating to mid-US60c level
The resilience shown by the Australian dollar in recent
weeks will be short lived, according to Kerr Neilson,
chief executive of Platinum International, one of the
country's largest globally invested managed funds. Mr
Neilson has bet the US currency will further strengthen
in coming months and the $A can expect to fall as much
as 10 per cent, a level it could reach and stay for the first
half of next year, he predicted.
http://www.afr.com/markets/currencies/platinuminternational-chief-kerr-neilson-sees-a-retreating-tomidus60c-level-20151202-gldteq
FT: Opponents of ECB stimulus could lead to
watered-down QE plan
Most of the governing councils policymakers will
support the charge led by ECB president Mario Draghi
and his chief economist Peter Praet for an injection of
fresh stimulus. But idiosyncrasies in voting rules and
concerns that doing too much, too soon risks leaving the
central bank out of options in the event of further
economic deterioration could produce a less aggressive
package than markets have priced in. Resistance will
come from the governing councils German contingent of
Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann and ECB board
member Sabine Lautenschlger, and the heads of the
Estonian, Latvian and Slovenian central banks. ECB
board member Yves Mersch and governor of the Dutch
central bank, Klaas Knot could also object.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d568161c-990a-11e595c7-d47aa298f769.html#axzz3t1M6bPZb
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard in Telegraph: Oil
speculators risk 'short squeeze' if impulsive
Saudi Prince throws OPEC surprise

Hedge funds have taken their bets. The market is

convinced that Saudi Arabia will ignore the revolt within
OPEC at a potentially explosive meeting on Friday,
continuing to flood the global markets with excess oil.
Short positions on US crude and Brent have reached
294m barrels, the sort of clustering effect that can go
wildly wrong if events throw a sudden surprise.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/ener
gy/oilandgas/12027936/Oil-speculators-risk-shortsqueeze-if-impulsive-Saudi-Prince-throws-OPECsurprise.html
Nikkei: Japan's corporate tax poised to fall
below 30% next fiscal year
Japan's ruling coalition seeks to lower the effective
corporate tax rate to just under 30% -- a level
comparable with Germany's -- in fiscal 2016, senior
lawmakers told The Nikkei. The Liberal Democratic
Party and Komeito have agreed to cut the rate, which
measures how much income companies pay in central
and local government taxes, from 32.11% to 29.97%.
That would make for a total reduction of slightly more
than 7 percentage points over three years.
http://asia.nikkei.com/Politics-Economy/PolicyPolitics/Japan-s-corporate-tax-poised-to-fall-below-30next-fiscal-year
Times: British car jobs at risk from French
power grab
The future of Britains largest car plant, Nissan in
Sunderland, is under threat in an increasingly toxic row
between the Japanese company and the French
government. More than 7,000 jobs are at risk, as well as
hundreds more at Nissans design facilities in
Paddington, central London, and its engineering centre
in Cranfield, Bedfordshire, should Paris go ahead with
plans to take control of more than 30 per cent of
Renault. The proposal has put pressure on the tie-up and
is being seen as a possible backdoor attempt by
Emmanuel Macron, the French economics minister, to
nationalise Renault and move jobs back to France.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/eng
ineering/article4630778.ece
FT: Rousseff faces impeachment proceedings
Brazils Congress will start impeachment proceedings
against President Dilma Rousseff, the head of the lower
house Eduardo Cunha said late on Wednesday. The
process will be based on a petition accusing her of
crimes of responsibility for her governments handling
of its 2014 budget, in which Brazils public accounts
watchdog alleged she used accounting tricks to plug gaps
in state finances.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/4b7ea8ac-9947-11e5bdda-9f13f99fa654.html?ftcamp=published_links

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.

%2Frss%2Fcompanies%2Ffeed%2F
%2Fproduct#axzz3t1M6bPZb
FT: Indias headline GDP growth disguises
problems below the surface
India has many problems bubbling beneath the surface,
from bad debts in the banking system to a worrying
reluctance of entrepreneurs to invest in their own,
seemingly successful, economy. Most of the rise in
investment has been government-led. There are at least
three reasons not to count Indias chickens just yet.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/aee822de-98dd-11e595c7-d47aa298f769.html#axzz3t1M6bPZb
FT Lex Column - Canadian banks: maple belief
Direct damage from oil and gas lending has so far been
limited. The energy sector represents over a tenth of the
nations economy, but lending to oil and gas companies
is just a few percentage points of the total loan book.
That lending is typically secured by the commodity and
so provisions, which have increased through the year,
are still only around 50 basis points of total oil and gas
lending. Those provisions are expected to inch up
through 2017 as commodity prices remain low.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/3/34a1975c-991a-11e59228-87e603d47bdc.html#axzz3t1M6bPZb
WSJ: Wall Street Goes Short on Bond Traders
The shift in fortunes for the industrys bond traders was
driven home for Susan Estes last month in a large
conference room at the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York in lower Manhattan. Ms. Estes, a former senior
bond trader with Deutsche Bank AG, was among more
than 200 traders and investors gathered to discuss the
evolving market for Treasurys. In previous years, big
banks, also called primary dealers, would have
dominated this type of conference, said Ms. Estes, who
started an electronic bond exchange and now lives in
North Carolina. The dynamics are shifting, primary
dealers are being pushed out.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/wall-street-goes-short-onbond-traders-1449102232?mod=wsj_nview_latest
WSJ: Chinas Rigged IPOs
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC)
allowed initial public offerings to resume this week on
the countrys two stock exchanges after a five-month
freeze. If that sounds like good news, its also part of a
policy that puts the interests of companies above those of
shareholders and prevents Chinas markets from
maturing.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-rigged-ipos1449102648?mod=wsj_nview_latest

These information have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but I make no representation or warranty as to their accuracy or completeness.
Copyright 2013 The Poon Report by Vincent Poon. All rights reserved.