Greece turns, Europe wobbles

SYRIZA'S unequivocal victory in Sunday's Greek elections reverberated all over

Europe. It had been widely assumed that the left-wing populists and their
charismatic young leader, Alexis Tsipras (pictured), would win a plurality of the
votes, but the margin of victory was at the high end of expectations. In other
European countries, Syriza's win gave inspiration to populist anti-austerity parties
on the left and right. European governments, meanwhile, issued diplomatic
congratulations to the victors, while quietly worrying that the deals struck during
years of negotiations, to rescue Greece from default and keep it in the euro zone,
will now be torn open.
Syriza's winning margin over the incumbent New Democracy party of Antonis
Samaras fell just short of an outright governing majority. Including the 50-seat
bonus which Greek election rules grant to the party with the largest share of the
vote, Syriza mustered 149 seats in the 300-member parliament. Mr Tsipras moved
swiftly to consolidate his victory. On Monday morning he launched coalition talks
with an unlikely but willing candidate: Panos Kammenos, the leader of the
Independent Greeks, a small right-wing party. Mr Kammenos quickly announced
that the two parties had struck a deal. Although opposed to Syriza in their overall
ideology, the right-wing Independent Greeks share Syriza's antipathy to the terms
of Greece's bail-out, and its attendant dose of stringent government austerity.
With 13 seats, Mr Kammenos could provide a workable majority for a Syriza
government. One Syriza aide says Mr Tsipras might even announce his cabinet by
Monday evening. Mr Tsipras was also due hold talks later on Monday with Stavros
Theodorakis, leader of To Potami (The River), a centre-left party entering
parliament for the first time. Mr Theodorakis would refuse to join a Syriza-led
government but could provide additional parliamentary support.
For the rest of Europe, the question is how strongly Mr Tsipras will press his
demands for a renegotiation of the bail-out programme agreed with the so-called
"troika" of the European Commission, the European Central Bank, and the IMF. Mr
Tsipras has demanded a significant haircut in Greece's national debt, and has
vowed to rehire laid-off government workers, raise the minimum wage, and hike
government spending to pay for free electricity and health care for the poor. That
uncompromising anti-austerity agenda has inspired many Europeans, while giving
their governments the shivers.
The most important response will be that of Germany. Angela Merkel, the
chancellor, is reviled in Greece for her leading role in negotiating the bail-out's
terms, and has been diplomatic about Mr Tsiprass victory to avoid further
provocation. But other politicians from her coalition are doing the talking for her.
Gnther Oettinger, a commissioner in Brussels and a member of Mrs Merkels

centre-right Christian Democrat party, told German public radio that although
nobody wants Greece to exit the euro, another debt haircut is out of the question.
Hans-Peter Friedrich of the CSU, the Christian Democrats Bavarian sister party,
urged the Greeks to continue with austerity because German taxpayers should not
bear their burdens. Even the centre-left Social Democrats in Mrs Merkels coalition
joined the chorus. Thomas Oppermann, their parliamentary leader, said Greece
would do better to fight corruption at home than to break its commitments abroad.
Only The Left, a party on Germanys ex-communist political fringe, cheered on
Syriza's plans to end the spending cuts they consider a social disaster. But The
Lefts role is marginal in German politics. More influential is the Alternative for
Germany (AfD), a party founded in 2013 that calls for dissolving the euro zone. AfD
is currently trying to decide whether to remain primarily a Eurosceptic party or
become a socially conservative movement with xenophobic tendencies. Any
perceived softness toward Greece by the government would boost AfD's appeal.
This further limits Mrs Merkels willingness to make concessions to Syriza.
The picture is very different in France, where Marine Le Pen and
her Eurosceptic, far-right National Front are riding high in the opinion polls, in part
by opposing austerity and economic reforms demanded by Brussels. In a classic
example of right- and left-wing alignment, Ms Le Pen has backed Syriza on the
basis of its opposition to austerity, though she has always criticised its relatively
tolerant immigration policies. On Monday she hailed Syriza's victory, saying the
Greek people had delivered a "monstrous democratic slap" to the EU. France's
president, Franois Hollande, offered formal congratulations as well. But Syriza's
win could present Mr Hollande with a headache by emboldening the left-wing
rebels within his Socialist party, who consider the current prime minister, Manuel
Valls, and his finance minister, Emmanuel Macron, unforgivably liberal.
Within the euro zone, Italy is the country whose position is closest to Greece's. It faces
a debt load of 132% of GDP and has its own populist left-wing party, the Five Star
Movement, which like Syriza clamours for an end to austerity. Italy's centre-left prime
minister, Matteo Renzi, was the first foreign leader to congratulate Mr Tsipras on his
win. Yet Mr Renzi has generated growing political opposition with his ambitious agenda
of liberal reforms, and his foes have been appropriating Mr Tsiprass win as their own.
Our Eurosceptic vision will continue to be confirmed everywhere, declared the Five
Star Movement in its response.
Mr Tsipras has said he is not anti-European and does not want Greece to leave the
euro, and not all of the parties welcoming Syriza's win were Eurosceptic. For some on
the left, Mr Tsipras's win offers the prospect of a closer EU that does not impose
austerity regimes on member states with debt problems. Nicola Vendola of Italy's Left
Ecology Liberty party hoped Syriza's win would set Europe on the road to true
unification, including a single tax system and a single job market.
But in most of Europe Mr Tsipras's win was taken as a defeat for Brussels, especially
in the European capitals where such a defeat is most welcome. For the Kremlin,
which sees the disintegration of the euro zone and the weakening of the European
Union as among its main strategic interests, the Greek election results were a gift.
Vladimir Putin was quick to congratulate Alexis Tsipras on his victory, and Russian

state television gleefully reported that Syrizas landslide means the end of the EUs
hold over Greece, which brought the country nothing but unemployment and
misery.