SYMPOSIUM BRIEF

PROGRAM ON GLOBAL SECURITY

et21.rutgers.edu
www.et21symposium.org MARCH 2 010

Crime Risk and Vulnerability

Data Needs + Structures
Estee Marchi is a
third year PhD How do we prepare for the unthinkable, the improbable? Risk and vulnerability are
student at Rutgers terrains that citizens must navigate in the course of everyday life. Vulnerability to
School of Criminal crime in daily life, scaling from the individual to global levels, can affect the quality
Justice. Coming of life in both tangible and intangible ways. That is, both crime and fear of crime have
from a background great fiscal, social, and psychological costs. To navigate risk of crime we must iden-
in sociology, she tify and recognize particular types of harm, or injury, loss, or detriment to the person
completed her or the society. This is important because different types of harm are tied to the per-
Masters in ceived nature of their consequences. Crime itself has economic and physical costs,
Comparative and fear of crime can exacerbate and create costs on its own. Security itself is dy-
Criminology at the namic, and is as much a physical structure or set of procedures as it is a social con-
University of struct.
Wales, Bangor in Security depends on differential access to resources, including economic, so-
the United cial and cultural capital (Bourdieu, 1993). Proper consideration of risk assessment is
Kingdom. crucial because crime is frequently a correlate of terrorism, cyber security, supply-
Dissertation plans chain management and global health. The development of a scalable and malleable
include crime risk assessment methodology is necessary to develop a common methodology
ethnographic for global threats assessment and management.
research on the Irish What is crime? Any methodology must employ both conceptualization of the
Republican Army, topic and defining what the units of analysis are. Though crime necessarily varies
for application from place to place, it may be regarded generally as an act committed in violation of a
toward law that prohibits it and authorizes punishment for its commission. Units of analysis
understanding the for crime include four elements: offender, victim, offense and incident (Maxfield &
mutation and Babbie, 2009: 97). An offense is defined as an individual act that violates the law
potential whereas an incident is one or more offenses committed by the same offender, or group
legitimization of of offenders acting in concert, at the same time and place (Maxfield & Babbie, 2009:
terrorist 98). For non-violent, non-terrorism based crime, asset value target estimation is a
organizations tool for to use to quantify the desirability of the target and its likelihood of victimiza-
within host tion.
societies.

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 Crime Risk and Vulnerability
It is also necessary to examine and quantify the approximate likelihood of criminal inci-
dent. Criminal statistics and asset target value estimates are the two main prongs that an anti-
crime risk assessment methodology should employ. These types of estimations can help build a
scalable methodology that is sensitive to emerging crimes and ongoing issues in the global con-
text. Developing a methodology that quantifies aspects of value and risk can help inform the
practices and policies of both detection and surveillance for crime prevention.

Methodology

With the conceptualization in mind, we can turn to how a methodology employs such elements
in the measurement of crime. Criminal statistics are one of the key elements for manufacturing
criminal criteria estimates. The most widely known measures of crime are police records and
crimes reported to police. Obviously, crimes not known to the police cannot be measured with
these police records, and require a different. Data should ideally go back several years, in order
to be sensitive to changes in trends. This is referred to as longitudinal analysis. Major and mi-
nor crimes should be included. Major crimes could include murders, rapes, assaults, and major
economic crimes. Minor crimes should include vehicle crimes and misdemeanor crimes. This
typology of crime grouping and data collection is referred to the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR)
in the United States. Crime statistics that are reported by the police and other law enforcement
agencies do not represent the full picture of crime in a given society. This is not a flaw within
the data collection process, the methodology of collection, or even of honesty or thoroughness
of the collecting agencies.
Official crime statistics can necessarily only reflect crime that is reported to the police.
There are varying reasons why some crimes are not reported. For example, some victims of
burglary or embezzlement may not realize there has been a theft. Or some may not wish to dis-
close their victimization for fear of further interaction with the perpetrator or disclosure of their
own criminal activities to law enforcement agencies. There are also so called “victimless”
crimes. These are infractions of criminal law where there is no identifiable evidence that an
individual has suffered any damage from the infraction. Often, a person engaging in a victim-
less crime may see themselves not as a victim, but rather a customer. This is especially notable
in drug and prostitution transactions. This data is missing from measures based on crimes
known to police. This missing data is referred to in criminal justice as “the dark figure of
crime.” The primary means of shining light onto this figure is through the collection of data via
self-report and victimization surveys. These surveys are designed and produced to thoroughly
address missing crime data by collecting data from citizens about their experiences of crime and
criminal victimization. It provides a more comprehensive picture of the nature of criminal ac-
tivity and rates of victimization. Though anonymity and confidentiality is routine for these
types of surveys, one cannot assume precise veracity or accuracy of any dataset. This is a simi-
lar problem for official crime statistics. Some jurisdictions or agencies do not collect or submit
the data, either through choice or through neglect.

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 Crime Risk and Vulnerability
Victimization surveys are not necessarily good measures of victimless crimes because
the respondents cannot be easily conceived of as victims. Status offenses such as truancy and
curfew violations are also crimes that do not have identifiable victims. One way of obtaining a
more complete picture of criminal activity is surveys of offenders. These self-report surveys
ask respondents not about how they were victimized, but rather what criminal activity they have
engaged in. If all crimes require an offender, and one does not have access to an identifiable
victim, and the crime was not observed by police, witnesses or victims, the most appropriate
means to discover crime is to question the offender.
Victimization surveys sample members of a population and ask them about their experi-
ence with the frequency, characteristics, and consequences of criminal activity. The National
Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is the tool used in the United States to gather this data and
is the primary source of data about criminal victimization. It is conducted yearly, and is used
by the Bureau of Justice Statistics to publish reports about the rate of violent crime in American
society. Many other countries have and use similar surveys to collect data. However, attempts
to compare data from nations has failed for use on regional and international levels. This is be-
cause definitions of crime and other methodological differences are too large for proper com-
parison. There have been attempts to modify this problem. One way is to design the method-
ology to be adaptive to the time and social and legal context in which it is conducted. This way
the data can be compared with some measure of reliability, or that the measure is measuring
something consistently. At the international level, the International Crime Victims Survey
(ICVS) has been used to measure victimization data while being sensitive to differences in so-
cial and legal definitions of crime. The European Survey on Crime and Safety is another meas-
ure, and is compatible for use with the ICVS.
Terrorism may be considered a criminal act, but its unique properties as an emergent
threat to global security necessitates the separate development of a methodology for risk assess-
ment. There are several frameworks that exist that can help to assess the value of a potential
criminal target. Thomas L. Norman (2010: 169) lays out elements for economic crime asset
target value estimates that include: “is there an opportunity for economic gain; what the prob-
ability for success is; what the probability for escape is; and, what is the probability for escape
without subsequent capture.” These questions should be used as indicators of how attractive
key assets are to economic criminals.
The estimation framework for non-terrorism violent crime asset value is similar in that it
proposes several questions that are similar to those assessing economic crime. Whatever the
underpinning causes, almost all violent criminals use some judgment, or a hedonistic calculus,
in committing their crimes. Most violent criminals who are aware of their actions use certain
criteria to determine if and when to conduct a violent act, including: “is there an available sur-
veillance position to reconnoiter the target before finally selecting it; is access identification re-
quired before entry (including electronic surveillance and human security); is forcible entry
possible, is there any sneak-path for entry, exit, or both; is the asset or subject vulnerable to di-
rect physical attack or intimidation through the use of force; can entry be made through social
engineering; what is the probability of success of the physical attack (is the victim likely to be
overwhelmed by force; and, what is the probability of escape” (Norman, 2010: 170). The as-
sessment may rank results of value by individual asset and by asset class (people, property, in-
formation, and business reputation) (Norman, 2010: 171). Fear of crime, and especially violent
victimization, exerts a powerful influence on everything from the individual’s daily quality of

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 Crime Risk and Vulnerability
life spectrum individual’s life to national policy to international treaties. To address these con-
cerns, we must move beyond merely collecting to analyzing the data. To address these con-
cerns, we must move beyond merely collecting to analyzing the data.

Analytics
While being sensitive to the particular social and cultural context that defines the legal defini-
tions of crime, it is possible to develop a risk assessment methodology that is effective at mak-
ing analysis of crime. The data garnered from crime statistics, victimization survey, offender
self-reports, and economic and violent crime asset value assessments can be used to identify
opportunities that provide targets for criminal activity and violent victimization, and can also
influence the calculations that are made by individuals and agencies to balance risk against the
demands daily life. By assessing past victimization and present threat, the ability
Transnational crime, including drugs, human trafficking and smuggling, piracy, terror-
ism and cybercrime are all emerging global threats in the 21st century. A scalable and malleable
methodology for assessing the risk of crime is essential most especially in the global context, as
the scope of victimization is so much larger. Statistical analysis is one of the best and most rig-
orous ways to develop the most accurate picture on crime and victimization.

Visualization
Presentation of data in a tabular layout is helpful, but not as engaging as charts, graphs, and
maps can be. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) is one of the cutting edge methodologies
that assist individuals and agencies pose and answer questions about crime. GIS technology
analyzes presents data that is tied to location. Comparison of GIS maps permits stakeholders to
note trends from the local to the regional and global level. Well known even in the lay dis-
course, “hot spots” and “hot spot analysis” have become critical for understanding and tracking
crime trends. Sherman (1995: 32-35) defined hot spots "as small places in which the occur-
rence of crime is so frequent that it is highly predictable, at least over a 1-year period." GIS is
rapidly becoming an essential tool for visualization crime risk around the world.
Another method of visualizing risk of crime is the cartogram. A cartogram is similar to
GIS in that it is a map wherein a thematic map variable, like number of homicides, is substi-
tuted for land size. Subsequently, the area is distorted according to the influence of that vari-
able. Cartograms are very useful in helping visualize regional and global differences in crime
variables.
The following cartogram from Worldmapper.org, demonstrates the number of deaths by
murder per one million people in 2002. The largest distortion is Colombia, which had 724 per
million deaths by murder. Colombia is followed by Sierra Leone (500 per million) and South
Africa (431 per million). On the other end of the spectrum San Marino had 0.0 deaths by mur-
der per million, followed by Cyprus at 2.3 and Jamaica at 4.8.

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 Crime Risk and Vulnerability
Deaths by murder per million people in 2002 – Cartogram by Worldmapper

© Copyright 2009 SASI Group (University of Sheffield)

Conclusion

Crime is a facet of social life. It transcends borders, adheres to no one language or culture, and
is constantly mutating to avoid detection. A comprehensive risk assessment methodology is
necessary to gauge crime and victimization in order to protect against both. Continued refine-
ment of existing tools and models is required, along with the integration of advanced visualiza-
tion technologies to address the emergent threats of crime in the 21st century.

References
Bourdieu, Pierre. 1983. The forms of capital. [Okononmishces Kapital, kulturelles Kapital,
soziales Kapital.] Trans. Richard Nice. Soziale Welt Supplement 2: 183-98.

Maxfield, Michael G., Babbie, Earl. 2009. Basics of Research Methods for Criminal Justice
and Criminology. 2nd Edition. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth.

Norman, Thomas L., CSC. 2010. Risk Analysis and Security Countermeasure Selection. Boca
Raton, FL: CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group.

Sherman, L.W. 1995. Hot spots of crime and criminal careers of places. In J.E. Eck and D.
Weisburd, eds., Crime and Place. Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press; and Washing-
ton, DC: Police Executive Research Forum.

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 ET21
About ET21
The Rutgers Center for the Study of Emergent Threats in the 21st Century (ET21) is an interdis-
ciplinary center of excellence designed to research a variety of emergent threats to civilians and
offer policy prescriptions that generate suitable responses to these threats through three compo-
nent programs focused on: Global Security, Civil Resistance, and Immigration

ET21 was created in order generate better linkages between the research activity of faculty and
those of students, creating a better prepared and educated cohort of graduates able to compete in
the global marketplace for jobs. By developing a long-term partnership with the programs,
funds and specialized agencies of the United Nations, several national governments, as well as
partner institutions across the globe, ET21 enlarges DGA’s global network of linkages. Current
initiatives involving partner institutions that have recently been initiated but would be housed
under the new Center’s rubric, for example, include Kassel (Germany), Koeceli (Turkey), Sci-
ences Po (France), Viadrina am Oder (Germany) and the University of Warwick (UK).

ET21 is housed under the Division of Global Affairs (DGA) at Rutgers University, Newark.
The growing prominence and prestige of the DGA as a premier interdisciplinary research-
oriented policy program have allowed it to establish itself as a center of excellence in the field
of global affairs, worldwide.

About the Program on Global Security

Large scale threats such as the September 11 terrorist attacks, the emergence of new diseases, and the militariza-
tion of cyberspace in the past few years have raised the awareness of both government decision makers and the
private sector that the vital systems and infrastructures upon which our societies and economies depend on are at
great risk from the complex threats emerging in the 21st Century. ET21 is an initiative begun by the Division of
Global Affairs in an effort to contribute to a better understanding of the structural sources of these threats, and to
identify the kind of policy actions that will need to be adopted to mitigate their consequences. The ET21 center
brings together practitioners, policymakers and scholars to find solutions to the challenges many organizations face
in developing early warning systems, crisis awareness, and response. Initial partnerships are being developed with
the UN Office of the Secretary General and the EU Joint Research Center.
The focus of the centers work is divided into four themes related to the study of emergent threats as fol-
lows: Data needs and structures, Threat assessment methodology, Analytics, Visualization
An important aspect of the center’s work is the involvement of students in research and policy develop-
ment. In addition, the center is developing its outreach which includes an initial symposium on the development of
common methodology employed in threat assessment.

Website et21.rutgers.edu Division of Global Affairs

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