Budget 2016 and the light-touch

education policy changes therein

While the Government provides the infrastructure, the potential to transform

education is in the hands of the National Institute of Education which is responsible
for curricula and teacher training and development. The spotlight really should be
on the performance of the NIE

Wednesday, 25 November 2015

The Budget is portrayed as a document for spelling out
this tax change or that price change in the media, but the
Budget is really an important policy document that spells
out how money is allocated, why it is allocated and what is
expected from the allocation.
My first reaction to the education component in the 2016
Budget was one of dismay. One cannot complain about
more money for toilets and improving classrooms, etc., but
there was no indication from this Government that the
Ministry is ready for structural changes necessary for
efficiency and effectiveness of education spending.
The National Education Commission in Sri Lanka in its
2003 report said that the education system is
characterised by three adverse features which are

significant sources of inefficiency in public education. They were (i) Extreme

politicisation of the system at all levels; (ii) Lack of coordination within the
ministry and the agencies coming under the purview of the ministry and
between the ministry and provincial authorities and (iii) Inefficiency,
ineffectiveness and indifference of officials and principals, and lack of
motivation among teachers.
The deep policy changes that are needed for reforms have been stressed by
me and others on these columns and elsewhere but, by all indications, the
Government is ready to go ahead with a threefold increase in the education
budget to 90 billion, with what I call soft-touch policy changes.
In the real world, it is political realities not policy analysis that determine
policies. Politicians are those best equipped to deal with political realities.
As policy analysts it is our responsibility to see how we make the most out
of the policy changes envisaged by them and comment on those in a
constructive manner.
Policy has to fit politics
In public policy analysis, we learn that
the problem may be well-defined and
policy tools exist, but if those two do
not align with politics, they dont
matter. When the problem, policy and
politics align we call it a policy window.
The 100-day set of promises by the
current President made many such
policy windows possible and civil
society and selected politicians used
the opportunity to push some polices
through the window into legislation.
However, more often than not,
misalignment is the norm in Sri Lanka.
When problem, policy and politics
come close together in Sri Lanka, what
we get is not alignment but fireworks.
In the Parliamentary tradition, a white
paper is an authoritative report or
guide that is presented by
policymakers prior to presenting a
Cabinet paper on an important topic.
The objective is to inform and receive
feedback from all stakeholders. With
the Sri Lankan polity ready to pounce
upon anything that looks like a policy,

white papers have disappeared from the policy arena in Sri Lanka.
The UNP, in particular, has perhaps learned over the years to deal with a
polity which is ready to mangle the messenger no matter the message. The
UNP manifesto for the August 15th election and the Prime Ministers policy
statement of 5 November, perhaps reflects this cautious approach.
Light and not-so-light promises and policy statements
Among the policy changes proposed in the 2015 Manifesto of the UNP or
the Economic Policy Statement (EPS) by the Prime Minister on 5 November,
there are many light initiatives and a few deep ones. In education, for
example, there are seemingly light proposals which may turn out to be
levers of change and two big proposals for a total nine explicit proposals.
Namely:
Initiate a program to provide facilities and incentives to schools without
discrimination; Establish school oversight board; Provide sanitation facilities
to schools; Limit the number of children in classrooms to 35; Introduce a
new education act; Stop using teachers for non-academic duties; National
examination date can be changed only with the approval of parliament;
Establish a national e-library; Increase education allocation to 6% of the
GDP. [Translated from the Sinhala version of the UNP Manifesto, August
2015, p. 21].
The promise to increase the education allocation to 6% of the GDP is close
to achievement with the 2016 allocation apparently being 5.4% of the GDP.
(I say apparently because I have not been able to calculate the exact
number from the data available). Bringing about a new Education Act would
be another deep change that the Government has been wise not to bring
up in its first year.
The November EPS is brief on policy changes in education, but decreasing
class size to 35 and providing facilities is prominent.
We will encourage an education process that will go on for 13 years. Under
a guideline established by Parliament, we plan to restrict the number of
children in a classroom to 35. The schools will be provided facilities and
access to the digital world that will bring the students together in their
quest for knowledge Economic policy statement by PM, 5 November).
Overall, the EPS and UNP manifesto provides a series of light-touch policy
changes which will not give much reason to be torn apart by an opposition.
If well-executed, these policies can indeed lead to important changes in the
education escort.
From light-touch policies to big changes
1. Small class sizes
Gradually reducing class size to 35 is a seemingly simple proposal to which
nobody could object. However, if gradually implemented a small class size

policy could be the lever that changes education.

A major problem of inequity in education the big schools get bigger
phenomenon. At Royal College for example, there would be 20 or more
parallel classes with over 50 students in each. Obviously parents send their
children to these schools not for the education inside the classroom but
other benefits such as belonging to a network of elites, etc.
No one policy tool could untangle this Web of work-arounds that have
emerged over time for securing admission to these popular schools.
However, when a simple rule about class size is enforced, parents, teachers
and officials have to rethink their strategies. While chances of more workarounds are possible, we can also expect some creative bottom-up
solutions as well.
With the safety of children being a major concern, parent are now thinking
of keeping children close to home and they have incentives to make the
neighbourhood schools better. Increased funding for improvement of school
infrastructures could push these tendencies further to improve
neighbourhood schools.
2. Vouchers for school uniforms
Government expects to save Rs. 2 billion per year through a voucher
system for distributing materials for school uniforms. This is different from
typical voucher programs which are used to achieve deep or systemic
changes in education.
In a typical voucher program some or most of the funding for public
institutions would be channelled through vouchers issued to students.
Institutions have to compete for students. Simple in principle, but, as a
World Bank analysis pointed out as far back 1996 and confirmed more
recently, implementation can be fraught with problems.
What is interesting about the proposed voucher system is that it does not
directly affect the school system or education, but, takes the purchasing
and distribution out of the hands of bureaucrats.
The program could meet with hiccups in the initial year of two, where some
families may find that they dont have a vendor who accepts vouchers, etc.,
but, media and civil society need to report these events responsibly give
the initiative a chance to succeed.
The biggest barrier to ensuring equity in school education is inefficiency in
delivery. Every inefficiency is a leakage that reduces what is due to
children. Every efficiency is a gain for the children. Replacing direct handouts with vouchers is a small step in efficiency that should be watched
closely but supported.
3. Incentives

UNPs Manifesto mentions incentives, but, we are yet to see any spelled
out. This is a topic that deserves a separate analysis, along with the
proposal to establish an oversight entity.

4. Oversight entity
An oversight entity is proposed, but, here too details are yet to emerge.
According to the 13th Amendment, each Province is able to appoint is own
Advisory board. Just as parliamentarians resisted the introduction of
independent commission for long, Politicians at provincial level have no
incentive to form these boards. In addition to setting up an oversight body
at the Ministry of Education, it would advisable to encourage Provinces to
set up their own. Linking some funds to oversight by Provincial Boards of
Education would be a way to nudge the Provinces to action.
5. Performance evaluation
We get all excited about the budget every November, but, come following
November nobody asks the so what question. It would be more effective if
a performance evaluation mechanism is more clearly tied to the budget
process.
In public policy we learn about at least three type of budgeting: traditional
line-item budgeting, performance budgeting and zero-base budgeting. In
line-item budgeting allocation for each line item is based on previous years
allocation. Whether you increase or decrease and by how much being the
main consideration. In zero-based budgeting, in theory at least, every
allocation is set to zero and the allocation begins from a zero-base, so to
speak. In a performance budget, each line is also broken down into
performance units and allocations presented by each program and its
expected performance. Without the performance component, the latter
would be a program budget.
In Sri Lanka, the Budget is essentially a line-item budget listing how much is
to be allocated to each expenditure head in each ministry. The Budget
speech fleshes out the rationale and the performance expected in a broad
sense, but, not in a manner conducive to follow-up evaluations.
In the 2016 Budget the total expenditure of 2,797 billion or (2.8 trillion) in
rupees is listed under five or more categories where the distribution in
billions (b) of rupees is as follows: Salaries and Wages including Provincial
Councils (658 b); Other Goods and Services including Provincial Councils
(313); Interest (520); Subsidies and Transfers (437) Public Investment in
Education, Health, Infrastructure and Other (868b).
Education expenditures are embedded in the each of the line items in
addition to the more explicit mention under the Public Investment category.

The total expenditure for education is estimated as Rs. 90 billion, according

to media reports. .
Anything resembling a program budget is found Annexure II in Budget
document which details the expenditure proposals and the amounts
allocated. Of the total 90 billion allocation to education 72% are listed
under specific proposals l to improve school facilities (i.e. Teacher Training
Programme, 1b; Teacher Development, 2b; Sanitary Facilities for Schools,
4b; Electricity for Schools, 2b; Upgrading Primary Schools, 10b; Providing
Facilities to 1,000 Secondary Schools, 15b; Basic Facilities for 1360 Schools,
30b; Upgrading 25 Plantation Schools, 0.25b; Improving Science Education
in Schools, 0.45b; Improving Dental Health Facilities, 0.25 b).
Since these programs are essentially facilities related any direct impact on
educational quality has to come from elsewhere.
6. A high-performing National Institute of Education is key
While the Government provides the infrastructure, the potential to
transform education is in the hands of the National Institute of Education
which is responsible for curricula and teacher training and development.
The spotlight really should be on the performance of the NIE.
Posted by Thavam