Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
2047-2059
Resumen
Abstract
2048 Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agrc. Pub. Esp. Nm. 10 12 de noviembre - 31 de diciembre, 2014
Introduccin
El clima es tal vez el factor que ms influye en la seleccin
de las reas ms propicias para el establecimiento de los
viedos y el tipo de vino que se obtendr (White et al.,
2006; Gladstones, 2011; Anderson et al., 2012). Entre las
variables climticas, la temperatura en forma de ndices
sencillos o complejos, es la que ms comnmente ha sido
utilizada para comparar y clasificar las diferentes regiones
vitcolas (Tonietto y Carbonneau, 2004; Jones et al., 2010).
Las temperaturas medias durante el ciclo de crecimiento
del cultivo de la vid, consideradas como las ms adecuadas
Introduction
Climate is perhaps the most influential factor in selecting
the most suitable areas for the establishment of the vineyards
and the type of wine we get (White et al., 2006; Gladstones,
2011; Anderson et al., 2012). Between climatic variables,
temperature as complex or simple indices, is the most
commonly used to compare and classify the different wine
regions (Tonietto and Carbonneau, 2004; Jones et al., 2010).
Average temperatures during the growth cycle of growing
grapes, considered the most suitable for the production of
grapes for purposes of making high quality wines, ranging
between 20 and 22 C (Gladstones, 2002; Jones et al., 2010).
However, it is expected that due to rising temperatures
caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases
(IPCC, 2007), the pattern of geographic location of wine
regions modified the display of these characteristics, which
has led to the realization of studies to visualize the future
Efectos del cambio climtico sobre el potencial vitcola de Baja California, Mxico
2049
2050 Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agrc. Pub. Esp. Nm. 10 12 de noviembre - 31 de diciembre, 2014
Materiales y mtodos
Si bien las reas vitivincolas de Baja California se ubican en
la porcin Noroeste del Estado, correspondiente a la regin
con clima tipo-mediterrneo (31 10' y 32 35' latitud norte
y los 116 15' y 117 5' de longitud oeste), se consider
importante analizar todo el territorio, con el fin de explorar
la posibilidad de ubicar nuevas reas potenciales.
latitude and 116 15' and 117 5' west longitude), it was
considered important to analyse the entire territory, in order
to explore the possibility of locating new potential areas.
For the climatic characterization we worked with the daily
data of 55 conventional weather stations managed by the
State management of the CNA in BC, which are distributed
throughout the State. The number of years with data from
each station was variable. However, most of them have
information for over 25 years. The data collected from
each station were: maximum and minimum temperatures,
they were refined and standardized by means of statistical
methods in the INIFAP to create a reliable database. The
next step was to calculate the core for each of the stations
considered in the study climatological statistics.
Climate indices
ndices climticos
GDD= Tm - 10
Where: Tm= mean daily temperature (C).
In the present study, GDD were calculated from an image of
average temperature for the period from April to October,
when the growth cycle of the vine on the Costa de Ensenada
occurs. Once calculated the GDD for different regions of the
State, we proceeded to their classification based on the system
of viticultural regions proposed by Amerine and Winkler
(1944), which considers five classes of viticultural conditions
based on the style and quality of wines which can be produced
in a given climate. In the climate I (<1 370 GDD) the region
of early maturing varieties reach high quality. In region II (1
371-1 650 GDD) most of the early and intermediate varieties
produce wines of good quality, light to medium body and
Efectos del cambio climtico sobre el potencial vitcola de Baja California, Mxico
2051
good balance. The region III (1 651-1 930 GDD) has a climate
suitable for high production of wines at good standard fullbody dry to sweet dessert wines. The region IV (1 931-2 205
GDD) is favourable for high yields and sweet wines, and is
generally lower for table wines. Region V (> 2 205 GDD)
produces generally fill table wine or fortified wine, or is it
better to varieties of table grapes or raisins.
Frost-free period (PLH): to calculate the frost-free period,
which gives us the days or months available for the
growing season, we used the method proposed by Snyder
et al., (2005). The calculations were made considering a
probability of 90% frost. As the minimum temperature
used in the calculations of critical value was 0 C, since at
this temperature damage to plant shoots arise in the spring.
The following model was used to obtain the image of PLH:
PLH= -2.0091Tioa2 + 52.658Tioa + 24.52 (r= 0.91)
Where: PLH= free of frost (days) Period; TIOA= average
minimum temperature for the period from October to April
(C).
PLH data were grouped into the following categories: A)
<135 days; B) 136-155 days; C) 156 to 175 days; D) 176195 days and E)> 195 days frost-free.
Cold hours (CH): The deciduous fruit trees and vines
require a rest period in the winter where low temperatures
influence the percentages of sprouting in spring (Kliwer
and Soleimani, 1972; Botelho et al., 2007). Because no
data are collected every hour, but once in the day, cold
hours were calculated using the minimum daily average
temperatures recorded at each station in the period from
November to February, according to the method of Da
Mota (1983), cited by Ortz (1987) in which the following
equation is used:
CH= 485.1 - 28.52Tm
Where: CH= cold hours accumulated in the winter period;
Tm= average temperature of the months of November to
February.
In order to obtain the total of CH over the year subtotals,
CH obtained for each of the four months were added. The
CH were classified into four classes: 1) <50 CH; 2) 51-150
CH; 3) 1 51-250 CH and 4)> 250 CH.
2052 Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agrc. Pub. Esp. Nm. 10 12 de noviembre - 31 de diciembre, 2014
Efectos del cambio climtico sobre el potencial vitcola de Baja California, Mxico
2053
Variable
PLH (das)
<135
135 - 155
156 - 175
176 - 195
>195
Intervalos
GDD (C)
< 1 370
1 371 - 1 650
1 651 - 1 930
1 931 - 2 205
> 2 205
2054 Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agrc. Pub. Esp. Nm. 10 12 de noviembre - 31 de diciembre, 2014
Resultados y discusin
ndices climticos
Climate indices
GDD. In the Figure 1 are shown the cumulative GDD of
the first day of April to October 30, calculated based on
the method Amerine and Winkler (1944). It is noted that
in the present situation (period 1961-2010) in the State we
can find the five wine regions described by these authors.
As expected, the regions where less GDD accumulate are
located in the highest parts of the State, as in the case of the
Sierra de San Pedro Martir located west of San Felipe and
Jurez east of Ojos Negros, where temperatures are lower.
In such places the altitude above mean sea level exceeds 1
000 m. In contrast desert regions located at a much lower
altitude and east of the State, have a large cumulative GDD
(> 2 205 C).
The analysis of the processed maps can envision the impact
that climate change may have on the GDD in different
regions of the State. It is noted that even through, the three
future scenarios, the GDD increase statewide, with the result
that for 2051-2060, only the higher altitude regions and some
coastal areas of western State values less accumulate GDD
to the 2205, the maximum suggested for good quality fruit
for winemaking (Winkler et al., 1972; Gladstones, 2005).
Efectos del cambio climtico sobre el potencial vitcola de Baja California, Mxico
2011-2020
GDD (C)
< 1370
1371-1650
1651-1930
1931-2205
> 2205
2031-2040
Abril-Octubre 2051-2060
2055
2011-2020
PLH (Das)
< 135
135-155
155-175
175-195
> 195
2031-2040
2051-2060
2056 Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agrc. Pub. Esp. Nm. 10 12 de noviembre - 31 de diciembre, 2014
HF
1961-2010
2011-2020
2031-2040
2051-2060
< 50
51-150
151-250
> 250
Abril-Octubre 1961-2010
TMM (C)
< 26
26-28
28-30
30-32
> 32
Abril-Octubre 2031-2040
Abril-Octubre 2051-2060
Efectos del cambio climtico sobre el potencial vitcola de Baja California, Mxico
2057
2031-2040
2011-2020
GDD
PLH
< 1370 135-155
1371-1650 135-155
1651-1930 135-155
1931-2205 135-155
> 2205 135-155
< 1370 156-175
1371-1650 156-175
1651-1930 156-175
1931-2205 156-175
> 2205 156-175
< 1370 176-195
1371-1650 176-195
1650-1930 176-195
1931-2205 176-195
> 2205 176-195
< 1370 > 195
1371-1650 > 195
1651-1930 > 195
1931-2205 > 195 .
> 2205 > 195 :
Marginal
2051-2060
2058 Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agrc. Pub. Esp. Nm. 10 12 de noviembre - 31 de diciembre, 2014
Conclusiones
Los escenarios obtenidos permiten prever que a futuro
(2051-2060), en las regiones vitivincolas actualmente
en produccin de Baja California, existir un aumento
en la acumulacin de los grados das de desarrollo y las
temperaturas mximas medias (> 32 C), mientras que la
acumulacin de horas fro y el perodo libre de heladas
se mantendrn sin cambios. Debido a lo anterior, estas
regiones dejarn de tener las temperaturas adecuadas para
producir vinos de alta calidad, a menos que se encuentren
nuevos cultivares o clones que se adapten a las condiciones
de mayores temperaturas, se apliquen nuevas prcticas de
manejo de las plantas, se modifique el diseo de los viedos,
o se realicen ajustes en los procesos de vinificacin.
En contraste, debido a un aumento del perodo libre de
heladas, las regiones aledaas a las sierras de Jurez y San
Pedro Mrtir, as como partes de los Valles de Ojos Negros
y la Trinidad tendran condiciones adecuadas para el cultivo
de la vid con propsito de elaboracin de vinos de mesa.
Por ltimo se encontr que la regin de la franja costera que
va desde el sur de la Ciudad de Ensenada hasta San Vicente,
mantendr sin cambios significativos sus caractersticas de
temperaturas propicias para el cultivo de la vid.
Literatura citada
Amerine, M. A and Winkler, A. K. J. 1944. Composition and quality of
musts and wines of California grapes. Hilgardia 15:493-673.
Anderson, J. D.; Jones, G. V.; Tait, A.; Hall, A. and Trought, M. T.
C. 2012.Analysis of viticulture region climate structure
and suitability in New Zealand. Inter. J. Vine Wine Sci.
49(3):149-165.
Bettiga, L. J. and Gubler, W. D. 2013. Bunch rots. In: grape pest
management. Bettiga, L. J. (Ed.). Third Edition. University of
California. Pub. 3343. 609 p.
Botelho, R. V.; Pavanello, A. P.; Pires, E. J. P.; Terra, M. M. and Muller,
M. M. L. 2007. Effects of chilling and garlic extract on bud
dormancy release in Cabernet Sauvignon grapevine cuttings.
Am. J. Enol. Vitic. 58:402-404.
Coombe, B. G. 1987. Influence of temperature on composition and quality
of grapes. Acta Hort. 206:23-35.
Davis, G. W.; Richardson, D. M.; Keeley, J. E. and Hobbs, R. J.
1996. Mediterranean-type ecosystems: the influence of
biodiversity on their functioning. In: functional roles of
biodiversity: a global perspective. Mooney, H. A.; Cushman,
J. H.; Medina, E.; Sala, O. E. and Schulze, E. D. (Eds.) John
Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Conclusions
The scenarios obtained can predict that in the future (20512060) in wine-producing regions currently in production in
Baja California, there will be an increase in the accumulation
of grades development days and average maximum
temperatures (> 32 C), while the accumulation of cold
hours and the frost-free period will remain unchanged.
Because of this, these regions will no longer have the right
to produce high quality wines temperatures, unless new
cultivars or clones that are adapted to the conditions of
higher temperatures are found, new management practices
are applied in plants modifing the design of the vineyards,
or adjustments in the process of winemaking.
In contrast, due to increased frost-free period, the regions
around the mountains of Juarez and San Pedro Martir, as
well as parts of the valleys of Ojos Negros and Trinidad have
suitable conditions for growing grapes for the purpose of
making table wines.
Finally, we found that the region of the coastal strip running
from the south of the city of Ensenada to San Vicente,
maintained without significant temperature changes its
characteristics conducive to growing grapes.
End of the English version
Efectos del cambio climtico sobre el potencial vitcola de Baja California, Mxico
2059