NEWS

9 Billion?

IN 1900, THERE WERE 1.6 BILLION PEOPLE ON EARTH.

By 2000, that number had skyrocketed to 6.1 billion. This astounding rate
of growth has slowed, but the trend is still heading dramatically upward.
It varies substantially by region, however, with the less developed coun-

Population is growingfast ...

Going up. The world has never seen anything like the population explosion of the past century. Four
billion people have been added to the planet since 1950, and the time it takes to add 1 billion people has
dropped to 13 years. World population could reach 9.3 billion by 2050, according to U.N. projections.

World Population Growth, 19502050 (medium variant)

Historic and Projected Population Growth

10
9

Population (billions)

8
7
6

10

9.3 Billion
9

13

8 Billion 2024
7 Billion 2011
6 Billion 1999
5 Billion 1987
4 Billion 1974
3 Billion 1960
2 Billion 1930
1 Billion 1800

To add the next

1 billion people

years

5
4
3
2
1
0
1+ Million years

6000 B.C.E.

4000 B.C.E.

2000 B.C.E.

C.E. 1

India

8
7

China
6
5

Africa

4
3

Other less developed countries

2
1

More developed countries

0
1950

C.E. 2000

1970

1990

2010

2030

Behind the growth.

Much of the population growth
of the past 50 years is due to the
spectacular gains in life expectancy in developing countries,
reflecting advances in public
health and medicine.

540

Constant

25
Constant fertility variant

High-fertility variant, 2.5 children

20

Population (billions)

The United Nations has peered out

to 2100, but those projections are
even more uncertain than those
for 2050. The medium variant
most commonly used assumes the
average woman in 2100 will have
two children. If she had half a child
more, or less, the picture would
change dramatically. And if fertility remained constant at current
levels

U.N. Population Projections, 19502100

Medium-fertility variant, 2.0

TFR* 2.5

Low-fertility variant, 1.6

15
*Total fertility rate: the average number
of children women would bear in their
lifetime if the birth rate of a particular
year were to remain unchanged.

10

2.0
1.6

0
1950

1975

2000

2025

2050

2100

2075

SOURCE: UNPD, 2011

Trends in Life Expectancy at Birth, 1950 and 2010

73.4

80
60

Years

Different assumptions,
different scenarios.

2050

SOURCES: UNPD, 2011

SOURCES: CARL HAUB, POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU (PRB), 2010; U.N. POPULATION DIVISION (UNPD), 2011

69.0

65.6

1950 1955

38.2

20052010

78.2
68.7

55.2

51.3

40

75.4

67.9
47.7

42.9

20
0

Latin Amer. and

the Caribbean

Africa

Asia

Europe

N. America

World
SOURCE: UNPD, 2011

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tries growing rapidly and the more developed countries growing slowly,
if at all. World population is expected to pass 7 billion in late October
and is projected to top 9 billion by 2050; the latest U.N. projections put
it at about 10 billion in 2100. In truth, no one knows exactly how high
population will grow or when it might flat-line. All population projections
are uncertain, as they are entirely dependent on assumptions about the
futurefor instance, how many children a woman will have 20 or 30 years
hence. In that sense, these numbers can be considered best scientific
guesses, not destiny. Whats more, the further out one looks, the cloudier
these projections become. Still, they offer a window into what the world
might look like in 2050.
LESLIE ROBERTS

SPECIALSECTION
... But more slowly than in the recent past
Tipping point. The period of most rapid population growth is

More women, fewer kids. The global fertility rate has dropped

behind us. Since its peak from 196570, the growth rate has declined,
falling roughly by half in 40 years as women have had fewer children.

from 5 to 2.5 in roughly 50 years, and the average woman in developing

countries (outside of China) now has three children, down from six.

Population Growth Rate, 19502010

Global Decline in Fertility, 19502010

Less developed countries
(excluding China)
World
More developed countries

7
6

2.0

Total fertility rate

1.5
1.0
0.5

5
4
3
2
1

0.0
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

0
1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

SOURCE: UNPD, 2011

SOURCE: UNPD, 2011

Stark contrasts. But that downward trend masks sharp regional differences. Since 1970,
Asia and Latin America have seen the steepest drops; in sub-Saharan Africa, fertility remains
high, in part reflecting desired family size.

Fertility Rates Vary Across the Globe

Total Fertility Rate, 2010

Fewer than 1.5 births per woman
1.52.1 births per woman
2.22.9 births per woman
3.04.9 births per woman
5.0 or more births per woman
SOURCE: PRB, 2010

By the numbers

Strong predictors. High fertility rates are associated with poverty

How Many Children Do Women Say Are

Ideal? (selected countries and dates*)

and low levels of educational attainment for girls.

9.1 5.3 3.2

3.0 2.4 1.6
Niger

Egypt

Uganda

U.K.

Jordan

Austria

*Niger 2006, Uganda 2006, Jordan 2007,

Egypt 2008, U.K. 2006, Austria 2006

Fertility and Education, 2007

Fertility and Poverty, 2007

Percentage of girls enrolled in secondary school

Percentage of population living on <$2 per day

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20
0

0
0

3
4
5
Total fertility rate

SOURCES: DEMOGRAPHIC AND HEALTH SURVEYS; EUROBAROMETERS

3
4
5
Total fertility rate

SOURCE: PRB, 2007

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Growth rate (% per year)

2.5

Where is it growing?
Different rates. Virtually all population growth from now until 2050 will occur in developing

Percent
Population
Growth,
20052050
100+
2699
125
<1

Projected Population
Growth by Country
20052050
SOURCE: PRB, 2011

Sheer numbers.* Because of sub-Saharan Africas high fertility rate, the fastest growth will occur there. But even with its slower growth
rate, Asialargely India and Chinawill still account for the bulk of the worlds population in 2050.
*Numbers in thousands

AFRICA
2010 2050
1,022,234
Population

ASIA
2010 2050

2,191,599
Projected

4,164,252
Population

LATIN
AMERICA
2010 2050

EUROPE
2010 2050

5,142,220
Projected

738,199
Population

719,257
Projected

590,082
Population

NORTH
AMERICA
2010 2050

750,956
Projected

344,529
Population

446,862
Projected

SOURCE: UNPD, 2011

Young and growing; aging and stable. In developing countries, the large pro-

By the numbers

portion of young people ensures rapid population growth. The aging population in more
developed countries, with few future parents, spells little or no growth.
Age
85+
8084
7579
7074
6569
6064
5559
5054
4549
4044
3539
3034
2529
2024
1519
1014
59
04

Developing
Countries
2010

300

Developed
Countries
2010

Males
Females
200

100

100

Population (millions)

200

300 300

200

100

100

200

300

43%
3%
16%
16%

Population 65+,
sub-Saharan Africa
Population <15,
Europe
Population 65+,
Europe

Population (millions)
SOURCE: UNPD, 2011

542

Population <15,
sub-Saharan Africa

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SOURCE: PRB, 2010

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countrieswith the largest growth concentrated in the poorest countries of the world.

SPECIALSECTION
The World Ahead
By the numbers

2:1

6:1

Population of developing to developed

countries, 1950

Population of developing to developed

countries, 2050
SOURCE: UNPD, 2011

A tale of two countries. A look at Nigeria and Japan today suggests whats ahead. Given Nigerias
high birthrate and large number of women of childbearing age, the population is expected to more than
double by 2050, while the population of Japan is expected to decline.

Age
85+
8084

NIGERIA
158
5.7
6,700,000
43
3
47
75
500,000
326

Nigeria
2010

04

15

10

5
0
5
10
Population (millions)

JAPAN
Population 2010 (millions)
Lifetime births per woman
Annual number of births
Percentage of population below age 15
Percentage of population over age 65
Life expectancy at birth
Infant death per 1000 births
Annual number of infant deaths
Population 2050 (millions)

Males
Females
0-4

10

SOURCES: (CHART) PRB, 2010; (POPULATION PYRAMIDS) UNPD, 2011

countries will not have enough workers to support the

higher costs of their aging populations. Developing countries with young populations will not have enough jobs.
International migration is set to increase.

20

5
0
5
10
Population (millions)

Number of Working-Age Adults

per Older Adult, 2010 and 2050

15

17

2010
2050

Number of people that developing countries could be adding each year in 2050

10

4
2

Number of people that developed countries could be adding each year in 2050

0
World

More developed

Less developed

SOURCE: PRB, 2010

12 Biggest Cities

fastest rate of urbanization occurring in less developed countries.

1975

Percentage Residing in Urban Areas, 19502050

City

90
80
70
60
50
40
30

World
More developed
Less developed

20
10
0
1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Least developed
SOURCE: PRB, 2010

City bound. More and more people will be living in cities and towns, with the

100

15

11

By the numbers

Million

Japan
2010

15

15

Higher costs, fewer workers. In 2050, developed

37
0

Age
85+
8084

127
1.4
1,090,000
13
23
83
2.6
2,830
95

2020

2030

2040

2050

Tokyo
N.Y.-Newark
Mexico City
Osaka-Kobe
So Paulo
L.A.-Long Beach
Buenos Aires
Paris
Kolkata
Moscow
Rio de Janeiro
London

SOURCE: UNPD, 2009

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2025
Population
(millions)
26.61
15.88
10.69
9.84
9.61
8.93
8.74
8.56
7.89
7.62
7.56
7.55

City

Population
(millions)

Tokyo
Delhi
Mumbai
So Paulo
Dhaka
Mexico City
N.Y.-Newark
Kolkata
Shanghai
Karachi
Lagos
Kinshasa

37.09
28.57
25.81
21.65
20.94
20.71
20.64
20.11
20.02
18.73
15.81
15.04

SOURCE: UNPD, 2009

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The Demographic Divide