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John W. Labuszewski
Michael Kamradt
David Gibbs
Managing Director
Executive Director
Director
Product Marketing
312-466-7469
312-466-7473
312-207-2591
jlab@cmegroup.com
michael.kamradt@cmegroup.com
david.gibbs@cmegroup.com
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
Ultra
30-Year
10-Year
5-Year
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
2-Year
E.g., you purchase $1 million face value of the 35/8% note maturing in February 2021. This security
pays half its stated coupon or 1-13/16% of par on
each six-month anniversary of its issue. Thus, you
receive $36,250 (= 3-5/8% of $1 million) annually,
paid out in semi-annual installments of $18,125 in
February and August. Upon maturity in February
2021, the $1 million face value is re-paid and the
note expires.
Price/Yield Relationship
A key factor governing the performance of bonds in
the market is the relationship of yield and price
movement. In general, as yields increase, bond
prices will decline; as yields decline, prices rise. In a
rising rate environment, bondholders will witness
their principal value erode; in a decline rate
IF Yields Fall
Quotation Practices
Quotation Practices
Unlike money market instruments (including bills
and Eurodollars) that are quoted on a yield basis in
the cash market; coupon-bearing securities are
frequently quoted in percent of par to the nearest
1/32nd of 1% of par.
E.g., one may quote a bond or note at 97-18. This
equates to a value of 97% of par plus 18/32nds.
The decimal equivalent of this value is 97.5625.
Thus, a one million-dollar face value security might
be priced at $975,625. If the price moves by 1/32nd
from 97-18 to 97-19, this equates to a movement of
$312.50 (per million-dollar face value).
But often, these securities, particularly those of
shorter maturities, are quoted in finer increments
than 1/32nd.
For example, one may quote the
security to the nearest 1/64th. If the value of our
bond or note in the example above were to rally
from 97-18/32nds by 1/64th, it may be quoted at
97-18+. The trailing + may be read as +1/64th.
Cash Price
Means
97-18
97-182 or
97-18
97-18+ or
97-18
97-186 or
97-18
97-18/32nds
97-18/32nds
+ 1/128th
97-18/32nds
+ 1/64th
97-18/32nds
+ 3/128ths
Decimal
Equivalent
(% of Par)
97.5625000
Futures
Quote
97-18
97.5703125
97-182
97.5781250
97-185
97.5859375
97-187
are
traded
in
units
of
Cash Mgt
Bills
Treasury
Bills
Treasury
Bills
$975,781.25
$2,558.70
$978,339.95
Maturity
Usually 1-7
Days
4-, 13- and
26-Week
Auctioned
52-Week
Monthly
Treasury
Bonds
10-Year
30-Year
5-Year
Treasury
Inflation
Protected
Securities
(TIPS)
10-Year
3-Year
As Needed
Weekly
Monthly
February, May, August &
November with reopenings in other 8
months
February, May, August &
November with reopenings in other 8
months
April with re-openings in
August & December
January & July with reopenings in March, May,
September and November
February with reopenings in June &
October
The Treasury currently issues 4-week, 13-week, 26week and 52-week bills; 2-year, 3-year, 5-year, 7year and 10-year notes; and, 30-year bonds on a
regular schedule. In the past, the Treasury had also
issued securities with a 4-year and 20-year
maturity. Further, the Treasury may issue very
short term cash management bills along with
Treasury Inflation Protected Securities or TIPS.
Maturity
1/8%
3/8%
3/4%
1-1/8%
1-5/8%
2-3/4%
02/07/13
04/11/13
07/11/13
01/09/14
12/31/14
01/15/16
12/31/17
12/31/19
11/15/22
11/15/42
4-Wk Bill
13-Wk Bill
26-Wk Bill
52-Wk Bill
2-Yr Note
3-Yr Note
5-Yr Note
7-Yr Note
10-Yr Note
30-Yr Bond
Price
Yield
99-24 1/4
100-00
99-25 3/4
99-27+
97-18 3/4
93-15
0.036%
0.051%
0.086%
0.127%
0.244%
0.372%
0.788%
1.294%
1.895%
3.085%
Coupon
Maturity
Price
Yield
On-the-Run
1-5/8%
11/15/22
97-18 3/4
1.895%
Old Note
1-5/8%
8/15/22
98-01 3/4
1.847%
Old-Old
1-3/4%
5/15/22
99-18 3/4
1.798%
Old-Old-Old
2%
2/15/22
102-04 3/4
1.743%
1.688%
WI
The Run
2%
11/15/21
102-17 3/4
2-1/8%
8/15/21
103-28 3/4
1.637%
3-1/8%
5/15/21
112-05 3/4
1.562%
3-5/8%
2/15/21
116-04 1/4
1.501%
2-5/8%
11/15/20
108-18
1.465%
2-5/8%
8/15/20
108-22
1.414%
3-1/2%
5/15/20
115-01+
1.341%
3-5/8%
2/15/20
115-25+
1.288%
1-1/8%
12/31/19
98-27 3/4
1.295%
1%
11/30/19
98-05 3/4
1.277%
3-3/8%
11/15/19
114-00 3/4
1.232%
1-1/4%
10/31/19
99-31 3/4
1.251%
1%
3/30/19
98-16 1/4
1.232%
) $1,000
=
+
= 131.734375 0.8604 $1,000
= $113,344.26
E.g., the conversion factor for delivery of the 13/4% T-note of 2022 vs. March 2013 10-year T-note
futures is 0.7077. This suggests that a 1-3/4%
security is approximately valued at 71% as much as
a 6% security. Assuming a futures price of 131-23+
= 131.734375 0.7077 $1,000
= $93,228.42
Futures Price
x CF
x $1,000
Principal Invoice
Cash Price
Delivery Gain/Loss
3-3/8%-19
131-23+
0.8604
$1,000
$113,344.26
($114,023.44)
($679.18)
1-3/4%-22
131-23+
0.7077
$1,000
93,228.42
($99,585.94)
($6,357.52)
Cash Price
Futures Price
x CF
Adjusted Futures
Basis (32nds)
3-3/8%-19
114-00
131-23+
0.8604
(113-11)
21.734
1-3/4%-22
99-18
131-23+
0.7077
(93-072)
203.441
The basis of 21.734/32nds associated with the 33/8%-19 corresponds to a loss on delivery of
$679.18 as shown above. Similarly, the basis of
203.441/32nds associated with the 1-3/4%-22
corresponds to a loss on delivery of $6,357.52.
As suggested above, and as a general rule, the
security with the lowest basis, i.e., the largest gain
or smallest loss on delivery, may be considered CTD.
Clearly, the 3-3/8%-19 is cheaper-to-deliver than
the 1-3/4%-22.
Table 2 included below depicting the basis for all
eligible-for-delivery securities vs. the March 2013
8
If yields < 6%
101
101
100
100
Short
Duration
Security
100
Long
Duration
Security
99
99
133.5
133.0
132.5
132.0
Yields
Falling
131.5
1/7/13
12/31/12
12/24/12
12/17/12
12/10/12
12/3/12
11/26/12
11/19/12
11/5/12
11/12/12
10/29/12
10/22/12
131.0
10/8/12
10/15/12
As indicated above, the 3-3/8%-19 was cheapestto-deliver as of January 10, 2013 vs. the March
2013 Ten-year T-note futures contract.
This
security, by virtue of its relatively high coupon and
short maturity, stood out as the security with the
lowest duration of 6.153 years amongst the field of
eligible-for-delivery securities.
Because yields of
10-year notes were in the range of 1.2% to 1.9%,
conversion factor biases severely tilted deliveries
towards short duration securities such as the 33/8%-19.
6
6%
10/1/12
200
150
Long
Duration
Basis
Falling
50
1/7/13
12/31/12
12/24/12
12/17/12
12/3/12
12/10/12
11/26/12
11/19/12
11/12/12
11/5/12
10/29/12
10/22/12
10/8/12
10/15/12
10/1/12
1-3/4%-22 Basis
3-3/8%-19 Basis
Yields Falling
Under 6%
Buy long duration basis,
i.e., buy long duration
securities & sell futures
Sell short duration basis,
i.e., sell short duration
securities & buy futures
100
1-5/8%-22 Basis
2-5/8% Aug-20 Basis
1%-19 Basis
12
13
Yields < 6%
Yields = 6%
Yields > 6%
Greater Volatility
Higher Coupon
Lower Volatility
14
Duration
If BPV measures the absolute change in the value of
a security given a yield fluctuation; duration may be
thought of as a measure of relative or percentage
change. The duration (typically quoted in years)
measures the expected percentage change in the
value of a security given a one-hundred basis point
(1%) change in yield.
Duration is calculated as the average weighted
maturity of all the cash flows associated with the
bond, i.e., repayment of corpus or face value at
maturity plus coupon payments, all discounted to
their present value.
Measuring Volatility
(As of January 10, 2013)
2-Yr Note
3-Yr Note
5-Yr Note
7-Yr Note
10-Yr Note
30-Yr Bond
Coupon
Maturity
1/8%
3/8%
3/4%
1-1/8%
1-5/8%
2-3/4%
12/31/14
01/15/16
12/31/17
12/31/19
11/15/22
11/15/42
Duration
(Yrs)
1.965
2.980
4.867
6.676
9.016
19.788
BPV
(per
mil)
$196
$298
$486
$660
$882
$1,858
/0120 = 34 5676809
We solve for the hedge ratio (HR) as follows.
34 = /0120 5676809
CF Weighted Hedge
Treasury futures contract specifications conveniently
provide a facile means by which to assess the relative
risks associated with cash and futures. As discussed
above, the conversion factor (CF) represents the price
of a particular bond as if it were to yield 6%.
Thus, the CF reflects the relative value and, by
implication, the relative volatility between cash and
futures prices.
Most basis trades are in fact
concluded in a ratio identified by reference to the CF.
E.g., if one held $10 million face value of the 33/8%-19 note, one might sell 86 March 2013 futures
by reference to the conversion factor of 0.8604 to
execute a hedge.
E.g., if one held $10 million face value of the 13/4%-22 note, one might sell 71 March 2013 futures
by reference to the conversion factor of 0.7077 to
execute a hedge.
15
5676809
;71
;71
;71
;71
;71
;71
/0120
<
=
;71
;71
* >/0120
<
=
* >;71
16
$8,550
@ = 104.3
$70.50
104
$8,550
@ = 66.6
$88.20
67
Crossover Risks
Portfolio Hedging
* >;71
34 = * >AB875BCDB <
=
17
;71
$70.50
@ = 976.3
0.8604
976
E7F8207 E;6880G7
* >;71
34 = <
= H* >AB875BCDB <
=I
E;6880G7
;71
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
Return
5.00
0.00
6,8
$70.50
34 = <
= J$80,000 : ?
@K
8
0.8604
,244.1
244
-5.00
-10.00
-15.00
-20.00
120
119
118
117
116
115
114
113
112
111
110
109
108
107
Market Prices
106
105
104
103
102
99
98
101
100
97
96
95
94
93
92
91
90
89
88
87
86
85
84
83
82
81
-25.00
80
Fully Hedged
19
Contract Size
Delivery Grade
Invoice Price
Delivery
Method
Contract
Months
Trading Hours
Last Trading &
Delivery Day
Price Quote
20
T-notes with
original
maturity of not
more than 5
years and 3
months and
remaining
maturity of not
less than 4
years and 2
months as of
1st day of
delivery
month.
T-bonds with
remaining
maturity of at
least 15 years
but no more
than 25 years.
T-notes
maturing at
least 6-
years but not
more than 10
years, from
1st day of
delivery
month.
T-bonds with
remaining
maturity of at
least 25 years
but no more
than 30 years
Coupon
Maturity
Price
Yield
CF
Basis
IRR
Duration
1-5/8%
1-5/8%
1-3/4%
2%
2%
2-1/8%
3-1/8%
3-5/8%
2-5/8%
2-5/8%
3-1/2%
3-5/8%
1-1/8%
1%
3-3/8%
1-1/4%
1%
11/15/22
8/15/22
5/15/22
2/15/22
11/15/21
8/15/21
5/15/21
2/15/21
11/15/20
8/15/20
5/15/20
2/15/20
12/31/19
11/30/19
11/15/19
10/31/19
3/30/19
97-18
98-01
99-18
102-04
102-17
103-28
112-05
116-04
108-18
108-22
115-01+
115-25+
98-27
98-05
114-00
99-31
98-16
1.895%
1.847%
1.798%
1.743%
1.688%
1.637%
1.562%
1.501%
1.465%
1.414%
1.341%
1.288%
1.295%
1.277%
1.232%
1.251%
1.232%
0.6867
0.6928
0.7077
0.7307
0.7367
0.7507
0.8194
0.8544
0.7985
0.8039
0.8588
0.8697
0.7326
0.7341
0.8604
0.7474
0.7341
227.966
217.252
203.441
118.484
176.191
160.174
135.569
14.527
107.923
89.160
61.229
39.280
75.475
47.151
21.734
49.085
57.651
-32.838%
-31.092%
-28.414%
-25.314%
-23.420%
-20.744%
-15.053%
-11.469%
-12.264%
-9.727%
-4.829%
-1.923%
-10.165%
-6.095%
0.121%
-6.008%
-7.637%
9.016
8.775
8.558
8.234
8.067
7.789
7.382
7.034
7.095
6.853
6.530
6.266
6.676
6.585
6.153
6.485
6.453
NOTES
March 2013 futures were priced at 131-23+/32nds
Securities highlighted in red represent least economic-to-deliver;
highlighted in green represent most economic-to-deliver.
Copyright 2013 CME Group All Rights Reserved. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, and involves the risk of loss. Futures are a leveraged investment, and because only a
percentage of a contracts value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for a futures position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they
can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade because they cannot expect to profit on every trade. All examples in
this brochure are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
Swaps trading is not suitable for all investors, involves the risk of loss and should only be undertaken by investors who are ECPs within the meaning of section 1(a)18 of the Commodity
Exchange Act. Swaps are a leveraged investment, and because only a percentage of a contracts value is required to trade, it is possible to lose more than the amount of money deposited for
a swaps position. Therefore, traders should only use funds that they can afford to lose without affecting their lifestyles. And only a portion of those funds should be devoted to any one trade
because they cannot expect to profit on every trade.
CME Group is a trademark of CME Group Inc. The Globe logo, E-mini, Globex, CME and Chicago Mercantile Exchange are trademarks of Chicago Mercantile Exchange Inc. Chicago Board of
Trade is a trademark of the Board of Trade of the City of Chicago, Inc. NYMEX is a trademark of the New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc.
The information within this document has been compiled by CME Group for general purposes only and has not taken into account the specific situations of any recipients of the information.
CME Group assumes no responsibility for any errors or omissions. Additionally, all examples contained herein are hypothetical situations, used for explanation purposes only, and should not
be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience. All matters pertaining to rules and specifications herein are made subject to and are superseded by official CME,
NYMEX and CBOT rules. Current CME/CBOT/NYMEX rules should be consulted in all cases before taking any action.
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