2nd Annual Power & Desalination Summit Riyadh, March 2013

Clean Energy Technologies & Eco-friendly Strategies

for Water Production for the Gulf Region
Robert Flaechsig
Member of the Advisory Board

DME INTRODUCTION - INDUSTRY KNOWLEDGE

What qualifies us as reliable partner for public and private sector organizations in GCC-Countries?
GCC Countries?
KNOWLEDGE &
KNOWHOW

WATER Technologies

ENERGY Technologies

MANUFACTURING Technologies

Services for growth by distinguished experts

DME e.V.
EDUCATION &
12 Advisory Board Members (Industry, Government) Technologies advisory
TRAINING
Desalination
12 Technology Advisory Board Members (Science)
(INTERNATIONAL
Water treatments
Enabler for international stakeholder dialogues
UNIVERSITY
Equipment
DME GmbH:
NETWORK)
Strategy advisory
100% Affiliate to DME e.V.
Market Entry & Business Roll-out
Feasibility studies; financial + technical assessments
BUSINESS
Transaction support (M & A, JV)
Se
Seminars
a s & workshops
o s ops in English,
g s , Arabic
ab c
DEVELOPMENT
Project management
E-Learning programs (accredited), English, Arabic
Experts Meetings & Workshops
DME References:
PROJECT
Management Seminars & Training

EU
EU,
North
Africa
Africa,
GCC,
GCC
Australia,
Australia
Kazakhstan
FINANCE
Product Development (support) & Site visits
Desalination, (sewage) water treatment, cement
Expert reports to industry & government
2

PRESENTATION TAKE-AWAY
TAKE AWAY

1 What is happening & where is the battle for water

1.
2. Sun
Sun-to-water
to water process & key technologies for MENA
3. Selected technologies & evaluations, i.e. for investment
4. Technical pros & cons of four technology combinations
5. Supply management optimization & mathematical models

|3

PRESENTATION OBJECTIVE

1 Outline (Effectiveness)
1.
Desalination strategies deploying renewable energy technologies
for eco-friendly
eco friendly production of water at drinking quality
2 Clarify (Efficiency)
2.
( Efficiency )
Decision-making systems rationale for sustainable energy efficiency
and strategic supply / demand management
3 Recommend
3.
Theoretical, technological, and practical considerations
in water production with renewable energies
|4

PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

1 Problem situation
1.
Water shortage, Demographic pressure, Industrial & Urban expansion
2. Technology review
Sun-to-water
Sun
to water process & main technologies for GCC
3. Investment approach
Main technologies, Cost assessments, Gap analysis
4 R
4.
Recommendations
d ti
- Stationary solutions: 4 combinations with technical pros & cons
- Mobile
M bil solutions:
l ti
D li ti ttanker
Desalination
k M
Made
d in
i G
Germany
- Decision-support systems: Supply & demand management

|5

WATER SHORTAGES
Year 2025: more than 2.8 billion people will face water
scarcity; the 20 MENA-countries face worst prospects
11 MENA-countries have water scarcity, while in 5 of
them the populations will double within two decades
Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE depend on
desalination; growing water-energy competition
EXAMPLE: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
Market drivers: water shortages and cost reduction
World Bank: The worlds largest desalinated water
producer and the 3rd largest consumer of water
Saudi Aramco: 50% of domestic oil consumption
p
is
used for desalinating water
IEA, World Bank: Tonnage of CO2 from fuel
combustion per capita 3-times higher than in China
IEA, World Bank: Particulate matter concentration in
micrograms/m3 is 5-times above WHO-guidelines
|6

WATER SHORTAGES
EXAMPLE: Desalination demand in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
10 0
10.0
9.0

Ground & Surface Water

Additional Desal. Req.

Exisiting SWCC
Shortage/Surplus

Commited IWPP
Total Demand

8.0

Rising water demand and

increasing need for extra
desalination capacity in
addition to current plans

6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0

SWCC assume a 2.1%

population growth rate, a 1.9%
water
ate de
demand
a dg
growth
o t rate
ate a
and
d
an increase in desalintion share
from 54% to 63% by 2025.

SWCC pprojections
j
based on
model of population growth
and increase in desalinated
share of municipal water
consumption

2.0
10
1.0
0.0

Assumes gradual increase in

ground and surface water use

20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30

ccubic metres p
per day

7.0

Sources: Seawater Desalination as Strategic Option for Water Shortage (SWCC) and Poyry Analysis
|7

GCC PLANNING

ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES
NUCLEAR

RENEWABLE (RE)

Global project portfolio

slightly
g y affected by
y Fukushima

Wind - relatively economical

power source, set for g
p
growth

Cost-effective in long run but

very high initial CAPEX

Solar PV - large in EU but

distorted by subsidies

Top-tier developing countries

starting
t ti into
i t Nuclear
N l
generation
ti

Solar CST - economics

d
depend
d on sun and
d systems
t

Long-term and large-scale

investment opportunity with
high returns willing to take
realization
li ti risk
i k ((costt iincreases,
late completion)?

Solar in EU and US faces

shakeout invest to serve
emerging solar markets?
Competition in Wind grows
invest in under-capitalized
manufacturers?

WASTE-2-ENERGY
Profitable but limited growth
potential in developing
p
p g countries (limited fuel volume)
Competition for fuel in
developed countries (re-routing
of biomass / waste to plants)

Waste management and

increasing sensitivity for issues
creates some expansion
potential
t ti l iin emerging
i markets
k t
entry routes available?
|8

POTENTIALS: Renewables?
Biomass: 890 TWh/y
Geothermal:
750 TWh/y

Energy demand of EU-MENA

in 2050: 7.500 TWh/y
Windpower:
1 700 TWh/y
1.700
TWh/

Waterpower:
1.090 TWh/y
Solar energy: >600
>600.000
000 TWh/y

Source:DLR,over several years anddating backto 2005.

GCC ASSETS
Selected assets in GCC:
DNI :
kW / m2 / y

1. Power of sun
2 Availability of land
2.
3. Abundance of financial resources
Considerations for GCC (& MENA):
1 km
km - Output up to 200 - 300 GWhell /a
1 km - Equals up to 50 MW Coal & Gas Power Block
1 km - Saves upp to 500,000 bbl Oil / a
1 km - Reduces up to 200,000 t CO /a

Sources: DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft und Raumfahrt e.V, EU project REACCESS

1 km - Produces up to 165,000 m
potable
t bl Water
W t bby D
Desalination
li ti
| 10

SUN TO WATER PROCESS: Technologies for GCC-Countries

SUN-TO-WATER
GCC Countries

SUN
MEDIUM TEMPERATURE

Solar Thermal Power Plant

Domestic Thermal Systems

MD

MED

Distillation / Membranes

NF / UF

MD

MED-TVC

MSF-R / ST
T

Thermal
Energy

Vacuum Collector Flatplate Collector

< 220C
< 220C

Thermal
Energy

Thermal
Energy

Heat Pipe Plant

< 450C

Distillation / Membranes

NF / UF

(R) - EDR

RO

Membranes

NF / UF

(R) - EDR

RO

MED-MVC

Membranes
& Distillation

Electric
Energy

Electric
Energy

Mechanical
M
Energy

Electric
Energy

Tower Plant
Above 1.000C

Thermal
Energy

Photovoltaic

HIGH TEMPERATURE

RO

Wind turbine

SOLAR HEAT

E
Evaporation
n

PHOTON RADIATION

Electric
Energy

WIND

WATER
| 11

EXAMPLE: Plant 30
30,000
000 m3/d @ 30
30,000
000 ppm
Levelized Water Costs in /m
Wastheat-MED
CSP-MED backup
Wind-MVC optimi.
Wind-MVC ggrid
Wind-EDR potimi.
Wind-EDR grid
Wind RO Over Capacaty
Wind RO optimi.
Wind-RO
optimi
Wind-RO grid
PV-MVC optimi.
PV-MVC grid
PV-EDR optimi.
PV-EDR grid
PV-RO overcapacaty
PV-RO optimi
optimi.
PV-RO grid
MVC with only Grid
EDR with only Grid
RO with only Grid
0
Sources: DME Research & Data

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5
| 12

EXAMPLE: Plant 30
30,000
000 m3/d @ 30
30,000
000 ppm
Specific CO emissions t CO / m
Wastheat-MED
W
h MED
Geo-MED
CSP-MED-heat storage
CSP-MED storage water
Wind-MVC optimi.
Wind-MVC grid
Wind-EDR potimi.
Wind-EDR grid
Wind RO Over Capacaty
Wind-RO optimi.
Wind-RO grid
PV-MVC optimi.
PV-MVC grid
PV-EDR optimi.
PV-EDR grid
PV-RO overcapacaty
PV-RO optimi.
PV-RO grid
MVC with only Grid
EDR with only Grid
RO with only Grid
0.00
Sources: DME Research & Data

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00
| 13

RECOMMENDATION 2: Mobile solutions (Desalination tanker)

Project ID: P9147-C1 (Technical specifications, Delivery 06-2013) Desalination cost only: 0.30 EUR/m3

Sources: MEYER Shipyard in Germany and DME (October 2011)

| 14

RECOMMENDATION 3: DS-Systems
DS Systems for optimizing supply & demand management
Capacity
S1t
Cost C1 Supply 1

Supply 2

Flow
F1t

Quantity
Q1t

Flow
F2t

User 1

User 2

Water
Reservoir
Supply 3

User 3

Demandd
D
D1t

Demand
D2t

Demand
D3t

Flow
F3t

Capacity
Sit
Cost Ci
Supply
pp y i

Flow
Fit

Sources: DME Research & Data

Quantity
Qit

User i

Demand
Dit

The mathematical models may account for:

Needs of users (1i) with type of water use
(agriculture, urban uses, industry) and user priorities
Type and availability of water supply resources

Criterion for allocation of water

Maximize total value of available water
Optimal exploitation of available water resources

Mathematical models to determine:

Appropriate water quantities allocated to each user
Optimal output from each available supply source

| 15

2nd Annual Power & Desalination Summit Riyadh, March 2013

Robert Flaechsig Email: robert.flaechsig@dme-ev.de

Head Office - Germany
Bismarckstrasse 120
47057 Duisburg
Germany
T:
+49-203-306 4250
F:
+49 203 306 4255
+49-203-306

Contact - Saudi Arabia

King Fahd Road
Road, Al
Al-Faisaliah
Faisaliah Tower
P. O. Box 54995, 11524 Riyadh
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
T: +966-1-490 3749
F: +966-1-490
+966 1 490 3750

Thank you for your attention!

KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA Water consumption (2011)

Saudi Arabian use & need of water resources
24 billion m annual consumption, 300 liter daily per capita = #3 worldwide
88% is for agriculture use (free of charge), 9% domestic use & 3% commercial use
1.5 billion m water used p.a. for 23.5 million date palm trees
500 liter of water needed to produce 1 liter of milk started to import cow feeds
decision to stop wheat production & import 100% by 2016, storage 6 month usage
3.3 million m per day water from desalination plants biggest 500,000 m per day
6 new desalination plants planned for over $11
$ billion
Saudi Arabia is with 18% share biggest global desalinated water producer
85% are pumped from ancient ground aquifers
aquifers
if ddeplete
l t rapidly
idl as natural
t l regeneration
ti very lilimited
it d depleted
d l t d bby 2034
$1.06 cost per m for desalinated water & $0.53 for ground water
total cost of water between $1 - $2 per m, consumer only pays $ 0.02 - $0.04
annual government water bill $4.8
$4 8 billion or $178 per capita p.a.
pa
40% assumed leakage very high, loss 1.1 million m per day or $850 million p.a.
40% evaporation for agricultural use reduction with better irrigation
100% desalinated water use would increase water cost 10 times
Sources: Banque Saudi Fransi, National Commerce Bank, Samba Bank, IIC

KINGDOM OF SAUDI ARABIA Power Generation & Solar (2011)

Power Generation Overview & Future Plan

SEC is electricity supplier, state owned, 85% market share

52 GW installed capacity (100% increase since 2000)
48 GW peak demand in summer (72% air conditioning)
28 GW low level demand in winter
52% residential, 18% industry, 14% government, 12% commercial
70 power plants, 700 turbines (60% gas, 34% steam, 6% combined cycle)
45,000 km transmission lines & GCC link for power exports & imports
$ 80 billion investments planned for next 10 years
6 IPP projects with 10.5 GW to be completed soon
80 GW planned
l
d output
t t increase
i
by
b 2020
2010 power generation 270 million barrels pa (10% of oil production)
2020 power generation 430 million barrels pa (15% of oil production, no alternative)
2030 power generation 850 million barrels pa (30% of oil production
production, no alternative)
electricity demand will triple 121 GW needed by 2032
2032 mix: oil 60 GW, solar CSP 25 GW & solar PV 16 GW, nuclear 21 GW
non oil power generation goal 62 GW by 2032 or 50%
non-oil

Sources: Banque Saudi Fransi, National Commerce Bank, Samba Bank, other public databases