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ELECTRICITY ECONOMICS
Regulation and Deregulation
GEOFFREY ROTHWELL
TOMASG6MEZ
JSEEIII_1
PRESS
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ENGINEERING
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IEEE PRESS
rnWILEY-
~INTERSCIENCE
A JOHN WILEY & SONS PUBLICATION
Permission to use material in Exercises 4.2 and 4.3 and Table 4.1 from Viscusi, W. Kip, J. Vernon, and
J. Harrington. 2000. Economics ofregular_ and antitrust. 3rd ed. Cambridge:MIT Press (pages 360,
363, and 394) has been granted by the MIT Press.
Cover design adapted from Shmuel Oren (2000). Capacity payments and supply adequacy in
competitive electricitymarkets. Presented at the VII Symposiumof Specialists in Electric Operational
and Expansion Planning (SEPOPE), May 21-26, Curitiba, Brazil.
.
Copyright 2003 by Institute of Electrical and ElectronicsEngineers, Inc. All rights reserved.
Published simultaneouslyin Canada.
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Limit of Liability/Disclaimerof Warranty: While the publisher and author have used their best efforts in
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however, may not be available in electronic format.
CONTENTS
Preface
Nomenclature
xv
XIX
1.1.
1.2.
1.3.
1.4.
1.5.
1
2
3
4
6
9
10
11
12
12
Electricity Economics
15
15
15
16
18
20
20
21
24
25
25
29
29
30
30
31
vii
viii
CONTENTS
42
43
43
45
46
48
49
51
51
52
52
53
55
58
58
62
68
70
74
Electricity Regulation
75
75
76
78
80
83
84
85
86
87
88
88
89
32
34
35
37
40
41
CONTENTS
5.1. Overview
5.2. .Wholesale Power Markets
5.2.1. The Poolco Market
5.2.2. Contracts for Differences
5.2.3. PhysicalBilateralTrading
5.2.4. Transmission Ownership and System Operation
5.2.5. Ancillary Services
5.3. Market Performance and Investment
5.3.1. Generation Expansionand Monitoring
Generation Competition
5.3.2. Nodal and Zonal Transmission Pricing
5.3.3. Transmission Planningand Investment
5.4. CustomerChoice and Distribution Regulation
5.4.1. CustomerChoice and Retail Competition
5.4.2. Real-Time Prices and Retail Services
5.4.3. Retail Access Tariffs
5.4.4. Distribution CompanyRegulation
Exercise 5.1. Determining Dispatchin a Poolco Market
Exercise 5.2. Determining DispatchBased on Physical
BilateralContracts
Exercise 5.3. GeneratorRevenues and Long-RunCapacity
Exercise5.4. GeneratorProfits with and without a Contract
for Differences
Exercise 5.5. The Value of Transmission Expansionbetween
Two Zones
Exercise 5.6. CalculateNodal Prices in a Three-Bus
Transmission System
6
ix
91
92
93
94
95
97
101
101
102
103
105
106
107
109
110
111
114
115
117
118
120
120
122
123
123
124
125
125
127
129
130
131
131
132
132
133
CONTENTS
6.2.
6.3.
6.4.
6.5.
6.6.
6.7.
133
133
134
135
135
137
140
140
144
145
146
147
147
149
149
149
150
150
151
153
153
154
155
156
156
157
157
158
159
161
Helle Grenli
161
161
162
163
164
164
166
167
168
169
170
171
CONTENTS
xi
172
173
173
174
174
176
177
178
178
178
182
184
184
185
187
187
187
187
188
189
189
190
194
194
194
198
199
200
200
201
201
202
202
203
203
203
204
204
204
205
205
206
206
xii
CONTENTS
206
207
208
208
210
210
211
212
217
217
217
218
219
220
221
221
221
221
222
223
224
224
226
226
227
227
228
228
228
229
229
230
231
231
232
233
234
235
236
238
CONTENTS
xiii
238
Glossary
243
References
251
AuthorIndex
261
SubjectIndex
263
Aboutthe Authors
277
PREFACE
We have written this book for the thousands of professionals working in the electric
utility industries around the world who need to understand the economics underlying changes in electricity regulation and emerging electricity markets. Electric utilities are undergoing profound transformations: nationally owned systems are becoming privatized, privately owned systems that were regulated are becoming
deregulated, and national systems are becoming international.
The underlying theme of these changes is one of replacing monopoly with competition. Changes in electricity generation technology have prompted the realization
that generation need not be a regulated monopoly to be socially efficient. Unlike
transmission and distribution, which are best served by regulated monopolies under
current technology, the regulation of generation and retail sales might be best done
through market discipline.
Professionals in the power sector who were trained to work for electricity monopolies must now work in a new world, one in which economic efficiency is replacing technical efficiency as the cornerstone of decision making. This book is a
unique attempt to provide the tools to face this new world.
We originally wrote this book as a training manual for the,Federal Energy Commission of the Russian Federation to educate regional regulators. The government
of Spain financed our work and the World Bank managed the project and is publishing the manual with other materials in Russian. We thank those who read and
reviewed the training manual. We tried to respond to their comments. We have expanded and updated the manual to produce this book.
We assume that readers have a technical background and are not familiar with
economics beyond an introductory level. So, the body of the text is presented with a
minimum of mathematics. On the other hand, exercises in the chapters of the first
half of the book rely on the reader's understanding of mathematics, particularly calculus. Although we suggest that the reader work through these exercises (the solutions are on our web site http://www.iit.upco.es/wiit/Electricity_Economics). the
remainder of the text does not rely on the reader's understanding of the exercises.
We suggest that you try the exercises. We believe that after studying this book, serixv
xvi
PREFACE
ous readers will understand the economic forces that are changing the international
electricity industry.
Although some readers could fully understand the material through independent
study, education is sometimes best accomplished in a social setting. Therefore, we
have organized this book within a continuing-education context. The material can
be the basis of a week-long intensive workshop in which Chapters 1-5 are covered
during the first four days and one or two of the case studies (Chapters 6-9) are covered on the last day. (For this type of workshop we suggest that students read the
first five chapters before the workshop.) The material could be presented in a 10week quarter with one week on each chapter. Or the material could be presented in
a IS-week semester with (1) two weeks on each of the early chapters (2-5), (2) a
week on each case study, (3) the assignment of a paper applying our case study outline to a particular electricity system, and (4) presentation of these papers in the last
weeks of the semester. Whether the material is studied independently or in a more
formal context, we wish you luck and encourage you to email us with your comments.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
We extend our gratitude to Gary Stuggins of the World Bank for his support in producing the first draft of this book as a training manual for the Federal Energy Commission of the Russian Federation and for his assistance in seeking permission to
publish an expanded and updated version. We thank Prof. J. Ignacio Perez-Arriaga
of the Universidad Pontificia Comillas, Prof. Shmuel Oren of the University of Califomia, Berkeley, and anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments on the
contents and organization of the book. Ram6n Sanz from Mercados Energeticos in
Argentina kindly reviewed Chapter 9 and Fernando Peran from Comillas helped
collect data for the Argentine case study. We would like to acknowledge the help
received from Prof. Hugh Rudnick, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, who
suggested that we publish this with IEEE press. We thank colleagues at Instituto de
Investigaci6n Tecnol6gica, especially Carlos Vazquez and Michel Rivier; at University of California, Berkeley, including Richard Gilbert and Severin. Borenstein;
and at Stanford University, including Tim Bresnahan, Roger Noll, and Frank
Wolak, for interesting discussions and work on electricity deregulation. Finally, we
thank all of those at the IEEE press who made this publication possible, particularly
Robert Bedford and Anthony VenGraitis.
Geoffrey Rothwell thanks the authors for their patience with his editing, the authors of other textbooks and educational materials for their guidance and comments,
including Darwin Hall, Joseph Harrington, Dan Rubinfeld, Bob Pindyck, Steven
Stoft, John Vernon, and Kip Viscusi. Also, he thanks the participants (particularly,
Lucille Langlois) of the International Atomic Energy Agency's "Eastern European
Training Workshop on Analysis of Economic and Financial Aspects of Nuclear
Power Programmes," Zagreb, Croatia (May 11-14, 1998), who provided an implicit audience.
PREFACE
xvii
Tomas Gomez thanks Chris Marnay, Joe Eto, and Ryan Wiser for their friendship and support during his sabbatical stay at the Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in California. Also, he thanks the Spanish Ministry of Education and Culture for its financial support and the Universidad
Pontificia Comillas that made possible the sabbatical leave to write this book.
GEOFFREY ROTHWELL
ToMAs G6MEZ
Stanford, California
Madrid, Spain
January2003
NOMENCLATURE
cm
CFR
CO2
COS
CTC
CTTC
CO.
DASR
DC
DEA
DISCO
DKK
DSM
ENS
EPAct
ESP
EURO
EWG
FDC
FIM
AssemblyBill (California)
AutomaticGeneration Control
Barrels
Billions
Boletin Oficial del Estado (Spain)
British thermal unit
Capital Asset Pricing Model
CapacityCharge
Combined-Cycle Gas Turbine
Cost Drivers
Contractfor Differences
Code of Federal Regulations (U.S.)
Carbon Dioxide
Cost-of-Service (regulation)
Competition TransitionCharge (e.g., California)
Costs of Transitionto Competition (Spain)
Company
Direct Access ServiceRequest
Direct Current
Data Envelopment Analysis
Distribution Company
DenmarkKrone (Danish currency)
Demand Side Management
EnergyNot Served or EnergyNot Supplied
Energy Policy Act of 1992 (U.S.)
Energy ServiceProvider
EuropeanUnion currency
Exempt Wholesale Generators
Fully DistributedCosts
Finish Mark (currency)
xix
xx
NOMENCLATURE
FTR
GDP
GW
GWh
HV
IOU
IPP
ISO
IVA
k
kV
kW
kWh
LOLP
LOSEN
LV
M
MBtu
MCP
MDMA
MLE
MO
MSP
MV
MW
MWh
NOPR
NETA
NIEPI
NOK
NOPR
NUG
O&M
OASIS
OTC
paR
poolco
PUCHA
PURPA
Pta
QF
RD&D
RF
RMR
ROR
NOMENCLATURE
SA
SALEX
SEK
SO
TIEPI
TRANSCO
TWh
Tcf
UDC
VOLL
xxi
ADEERA
AGEERA
ATEERA
Alicura
AyEE
CAM
CAMMESA
CEC
CENELEC
CNSE
CPUC
Central Costanera
Central Puerto
Chevron
Choc6n
Citigroup
Detroit Edison
DISGRUP
DISTRELEC
DOJ
Dow Jones
EC
ECON
EDELAP
EDENOR
EDESUR
EDF
xxii
NOMENCLATURE
EIA
EL-EX
ELBAS
ENEL
ENRE
ERZ
ESEBA
EU
Elkraft
Elspot
Eltermin
Eltra
Endesa
Enher
Euro Cable
FERC
FPC
FTC
Fecsa
Fingrid
GUMA
GUME
GUPA
Gesa
Hecsa
Hidronor
IEEE
Iberdrola
LADWP
LBNL
MEM
MEOSP
Moody's
NARUC
NERA
NGC
NORDEL
NVE
NYMEX
NYSE
NorNed
Nord Pool
OED
NOMENCLATURE
OMEL
OPEC
PAFTT
PG&E
PJM
PX
P. del Aguila
Palo Verde
REE
SADI
SCE
SDG&E
SEC
SEGBA
SK
SMUD
SaIto Grande
Samkjeringen
Sevillana
Smestad
SSB
Statkraft
Statnett SF
Storebaelt
SwePoi
TRANSENER
xxiii
SA (Argentina)
UCTE
Unelco
Union Fenosa
Viesgo
Viking Cable
WEPEX
Yacilec
Yacyreta
xxiv
A
AC
AFC
Ale
AR
ARA
AVC
b
e
C
CCH
CCL
CEQ
CF
CGA
CORR
COV
CPI
CRF
CS
Ce
d
d
~.
D
DR
De
e
Ed
Es
E
EFK
Eff
FC
FV
Fe
g
GC
GN
H
I
lIN
NOMENCLATURE
Annuity ($)
Average Cost ($)
Average Fixed Cost ($)
Average Incremental Cost ($)
Average Revenue ($)
Absolute Risk Aversion
Average Variable Cost ($)
A parameter
Capital Asset Pricing Model parameter
A parameter
Cash flow ($)
Capacity Charge in Highly congested zone ($, Norway)
Capacity Charge in Lowly congested zone ($, Norway)
Certainty Equivalent ($)
Capacity Factor (%)
Customer Growth Adjustment factor ($)
Correlation (statistics)
Covariance (statistics)
Consumer Price Index (%)
Capital Recovery Factor (%)
Consumer Surplus ($)
Consumption of energy (kWh)
A parameter
Derivative (calculus)
Rate. of change..
Demand function or curve
Distribution Company Revenue ($)
Distribution costs ($)
Exponential function (mathematics)
Elasticity of demand
Elasticity of supply
Expectation operator (statistics)
Efficiency improvement factor (%, Norway)
Efficiency factor (%, Spain)
Price of fuel (e.g., $/MBtu)
Fuel (e.g., in MBtu)
Fixed Cost ($)
Future Value ($)
Fixed Charge ($)
A parameter
Commercial costs per user ($)
Generator
Trigger value to invest ($)
Inflation (%)
Investment ($)
New transmission investments ($, Spain)
NOMENCLATURE
fPC
IRR
IT
j
k
K
KPI
KR
In
L
LE
min
MC
MR
MRTS
n
NPV
OLS
P
PR
PS
PV
Q
r
rdebt
requity
rf
rm
R
IY
RB
RP
RPC
RPI
RR
RRA
s
SD
t
T
TC
TR
U
UOP
XXV
xxvi
V
VAR
Vc
VC
w
W
WACC
x
X
y
z
NOMENCLATURE