Application of GIS for earthquake

hazard and risk assessment:

Kathmandu, Nepal
Part 1: Introduction
Cees van Westen (E-mail : westen@itc.nl)
Siefko Slob (E-mail: Slob@itc.nl)
Lorena Montoya de Horn (E-mail: montoya@itc.nl)
Luc Boerboom (E-mail: boerboom@itc.nl)
International Institute for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation, ITC
P.O. Box 6, 7500 AA Enschede, The Netherlands
In order to promote and accelerate earthquake risk mitigation efforts in developing
countries, the first requirement is that the citizens and local government officers
become aware of the vulnerability of their own city to earthquakes. They should
have knowledge of the extent of damages caused by earlier earthquakes and make
countermeasure plans and preparedness programmes to undertake in those scenarios.
This understanding would serve as a benchmark for establishing disaster mitigation
guidelines for these cities.
The United Nations Initiative towards Earthquake Safe Cities called RADIUS (Risk
Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban areas against Seismic Disasters, has been
developed based amongst others on the experiences in Kathmandu city.
Any detailed earthquake damage estimation exercise, typically adopted in developed
countries, is complex and requires extensive data and skilled personnel for
delivering meaningful results. One of the publicly available methods for earthquake
loss estimation is the HAZUS method, developed by the US National Institute for
Building Science (NIBR) and the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA). For more information, see www.fema.gov/hazus
Furthermore, the methodologies and data used for detailed earthquake damage
estimation are to a specific region and as such cannot be directly applied to other
countries. The RADIUS tool has been made very simple and easy to use for
decision-makers and municipal authorities. This tool requires only common
demographic data as input and generates perceivable results on common personal
computers. An earthquake is a complex phenomenon to model. In order to simplify
and speed calculations, the engineering model adopted in the RADIUS tool is
simplified. Experts should use this programme for preliminary earthquake damage
estimation only. Further validation and more detailed study are necessary.
In this exercise we will use the simplified RADIUS methodology for the estimation
of earthquake damage for the city of Kathmandu, in Nepal.

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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

Disclaimer
The material in this exercise is for training purposes only. The results should not be
used in actual planning for the city of Kathmandu. The RADIUS method should be
used for preliminary earthquake damage estimation only. This exercise document
may contain errors, and so may the GIS data used.
The GIS software that will be used in this exercise is the Integrated Land and Water
Information System (ILWIS), version 3.11, developed by the International Institute
for Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC). Information: www.itc.nl
Acknowledgements
We would like to thank the Nepalese Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET),
the GIS Section, Department of Information & Communication, Kathmandu
Metropolitan City and the International Center for Integrated Mountain
Development (ICIMOD) for providing the GIS and Remote Sensing data.

1.1 Objectives:
The objectives of this initial exercise are to:

Make you acquainted with the city of Kathmandu, and the earthquake related
problems;

Make you familiar with the input data that will be used in this exercise on
earthquake loss estimation. These data are both GIS and RS data, and are related to
both hazard, elements at risk and vulnerability;

Introduce you to the data warehouse, generated by the International Center for
Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) related with GIS data for the
Himalyan region, including Kathmandu.

Introduce you to the method that will be used

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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

1.2 Introduction: City Profile

(source: RADIUS documentation: Understanding Urban Seismic Risk Around the
World: A Comparative Study : http://www.geohaz.org/radius/)

Greater Metropolitan Area Definition

Kathmandu
City

China
Pakistan

Bhaktapur
Lalitpur

Nepal
Kathmandu

Thimi
India

Bangladesh

Urbanized Areas

Kathmandu, the capital of Nepal, lies more than 1,350 meters above sea level in a
fertile Himalayan valley. Two of its neighboring cities include Patan and
Bhaktapur. Located in central Nepal, it is the countrys administrative and
commercial center.
Population (in millions)

Population Growth of Kathmandu

General facts - 1995 figures

Population (in millions):
Urbanized area (sq. km.):
Per capita GDP (US$):

0.238
73.8
347

Major seismic code developments

1994 - Seismic
implemented.

code

formulated,

but

not yet
Year

Example of devastating earthquake and effects in the last century:

1934 - Bihar-Nepal Earthquake, 8.4 Richter destroyed 20 percent of Kathmandus
building stock while damaging 40 percent

Efforts achieved to manage the city's earthquake risk are marked below:

Seismic monitoring network

Loss estimation study (1998)
Land use zoning regulations for earthquake hazard exposure reduction
Emergency response and recovery plans

Earthquake disaster risk description

According to the EDRI analysis of the 20-city sample scaled with respect to the
sample mean, the earthquake disaster risk of the city of Kathmandu is driven
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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

mainly by its emergency response and recovery, vulnerability and hazard factors,
respectively.

Hazard
Kathmandus third largest
contributing factor to its relative
earthquake disaster risk is its Hazard
factor. This is due mainly to the
city'
s relatively high percentage of
urbanized area with high
liquefaction potential. In fact,
Kathmandu has the largest
percentage (37 percent) in the 20city sample.

Exposure
The exposure factor contributes least to Kathmandu'
s relative earthquake disaster
risk, largely due to the city'
s small size (Kathmandu has approximately 200,000
housing units on 107.5 sq. km. of urbanized land area).

Vulnerability
The second largest factor contributing to Kathmandus risk relative to the sample
mean is its vulnerability factor. This is due mainly to the lack of a currently
enforced seismic code (although a seismic code was formulated in 1994, it has not
yet been implemented). Additionally, more than 95 percent of the structures of the
country do not comply with the Indian seismic code, which was followed hitherto in
Nepal. Also contributing to Kathmandu'
s vulnerability is its low income and fast
development.

External context
Due to the city'
s relatively small size, Kathmandu'
s external context factor does not
greatly contribute to its relative risk for this sample of cities.

Emergency response and recovery

As the factor that contributes the most to Kathmandus relative earthquake disaster
risk, the emergency response and recovery factor is largely due to Kathmandu'
s lack
of planning and resources (equipment and facilities, financial and trained
manpower). Kathmandu'
s emergency response and recovery planning is
characterized as not well developed or implemented.

City risk management agencies and organizations

National Government: National Building Council

Local Government: Disaster Management Unit of Kathmandu
Metropolitan City

Non-government: National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET)Nepal , Nepal Red Cross Society

Other: National IDNDR Committee

Risk management effort examples

Creation of National Society for Earthquake Technology (NSET)- Nepal

Kathmandu Valley Earth Risk Management Project (KVERMP)

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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

1.3 Evaluating the input data

Time required: 1 hour
The input data consists of a series of raster and vector maps.

Base data

Hazard data

Digital contour lines Nepal: Contour Nepal (segment map)

Digital contour lines Kathmandu: Contour Kathmandu (segments)

Digital elevation model: Elevation (raster map)

Digital topographic map (1:25.000): Topomap Kathmandu (raster

map)

Airphotos overview Center of Kathmandu: 36_21, 36_22 and

36_23

Airphotos detail western part of Kathmandu: 8902_51, 8902_52

and 8902_53

Satellite images: KVR1000 (year 1991), IKONOS_pan (year 2002),

Quickbird (year 2003) (raster images)

Earthquake catalog Nepal: Earthquake catalog (pointmap and table)

Geological map Kathmandu valley: Geological units (polygon map)

City center: City Center (pointmap)

Faults and lineaments: faults (segment map)

Borehole locations: Boreholes (point map)

Landslides: Landslides (segment map)

Depth to watertable: Watertable (segment map)

Digital map of soil or overburden thickness (in metres): Soilthick

(raster map)

Digital map depicting outline of the soil deposits (derived from the
geological map Geological units): Geolsoil (polygon map)

Digital map of the geological units: Geological units (polygon

map)

Earthquake intensity map: mmi1934 (raster map)

Elements at risk data

Ward map: Area_type (polygon map and table)

Population data: VDC (polygon map)

Building information: existing_bldg (polygon map)

Land use map: Land-use (polygon)

Roads: Roadtype (segment map)

Check the contents of the maps, by displaying the vector maps over
the topomap, and by reading the various maps using the Pixel
Information window

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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

1.4 Evaluating the earthquake catalog

Time requirements: 3 hours
Objectives:

Evaluate the earthquake catalog, with respect to the location, magnitude

and depth of earthquakes

Display earthquakes according to magnitude and depth

Develop relations between depth, and magnitude

Define the distance of the epicenters with respect to Kathmandu city

Evaluate the completeness of the earthquake record.

Estimation of PGA in rock in Kathmandu for the various earthquakes in
the catalog.

Data needed:

Earthquake catalog of Nepal: Earthquake catalog (point map and

table)

Fault map of Nepal : faults (segment map)

City center of Kathmandu: City Center (point map)

1.4.1 Display the earthquakes according to their magnitude.

Double click the point map Earthquake catalog.

In the dialog box press OK.

As you can see all earthquakes are indicated with the same symbol size.

Double click a point in the map. The information on this particular

earthquake will appear in the Window, called Attributes.

Drag the size of the window so that you read all information.

Try this for several other earthquakes.

What do the various attributes mean?

You can also display the catalog according to the earthquake magnitude. We will
use the column Msfinal for that.

Right click on the name of the map (Earthquake catalog) in the

Layer Management pane (left part of the map) or in the map itself, and
select Display options. The display options dialog box opens again.

Select Attribute, and select the Attribute Msfinal.

Click on Symbol. The Symbol dialog box opens.

Change the line colour to red

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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

Select the option stretch. Enter the values to stretch from between 3
and 8.4. Use Size (pt) between 3 and 20. Press OK twice

Now you see that the earthquakes are displayed with different sizes according to
their magnitude.

Experiment some more with these options, e.g. display the

earthquakes according to their:

Magnitude: show only those above Magnitude 5

Find out the location of the earthquake of 1934 with Magnitude 8.4.
Write down the location of this earthquake:
X = ..
Y = ..
Depth = .
Distance from Kathmandu = .

Show them according to their age (year): show the ones with M > 5
that have occurred between 1800 and 1950,

Show the earthquakes according to their depth

Close the pointmap Earthquake catalog.

It is sometimes better to evaluate the information in the table, and not in the map.

Open the table Earthquake catalog.

Click on the graph icon . Select the column Year for the X-axis and
Msfinal as Y-axis. The graph is displayed, but rather distorted

Double-click on X-axis in the left window. A dialog box opens in

which you can change the scale. Choose 1800 as minimum,and
change the interval to 25. Now you see the relation between the years
and the magnitude. You can also see that for a number of events, no
magnitude information is available. The earthquake record is
incomplete.

Display also the depth against the magnitude. What was the depth of
the 8.4 earthquake in 1934?

Experiment some more with these graphs.

Close the graph windows.

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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

1.4.2Defining the distance of the epicenters to Kathmandu city

One of the aspects which is important to know for defining the potential Peak
Ground Acceleration of the earthquakes is the distance of the historic earthquakes to
Kathmandu. In order to evaluate that we will make a distance map from the city
center of Kathmandu, and calculate for each earthquake in the catalog, how far away
it is from the city.

Rasterize the point map City center. Select as ranges for X and Y
values:
Min XY : (-27172.95,2768900.41)
Max XY: (1101242.77,3544768.40)
SelectPixelsize: 1000 m

The map that is made will contain 1 pixel with the city center and the
rest is undefined.

Run the distance program on the raster map City center. Name
the output map: Distance . Use a precision of 1.

Display the Earthquake catalog on top of the distance map.

Now you can read for each earthquake how far it is to Kathmandu.

Close the map window.

Right click on the point map Earthquake catalog, and select

open as table. Make sure to select the command line option in the
view menu

In the command line, type:

Distance=(mapvalue(distance,coordinate))/1000

Close the pointmap table and open the table Earthquake

catalog. Join the column distance from the point map in the table.

Now you know for each earthquake how far it was from the city. How far was the
earthquake from 1934 from the city?

1.4.3 Additional exercise: estimate Log N (M) = a- b M relation

In this additional exercise you can also use the earthquake catalog in order to
estimate the Log N (M) = a b M relation. N(M) is the number of earthquakes
occurring within a region in a given time period with magnitude (M) greater or equal
to M. a and b are constants to be determined.

Open the table Earthquake catalog. Order the table according

to the column Msfinal, in ascending order (by selecting Columns,
Sort) from the menu.
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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

Create a column with only 1 values:

One=1

Create a column in which you convert the values of MsFinal into

Strings:
Msfinalstr = string(msfinal)

Double click the column header of Msfinalstr and convert the

domain to classes, using the button in the dialog box. Name the output
domain Msfinalstr

Calculate the cumulative of the column One, (Columns, Cumulative),

and sort by column Msfinalstr. Name the output column:
CumOne.

Sort the table according to column Msfinalstr (Columns, Sort). You

will see that there are 418 records in the database with a magnitude of
0 (no data). These should not be taken into account in the analysis. To
leave them out you can calculate (use minimum of 1 in the value
range):
Cumone1 = cumone-418

Calculate the minimum value of CumOne1 (Columns, Aggregate),

using the column Msfinalstr as group column. Name the output
column: Minorder

Calculate N now:
N = 673-minorder

Calculate log N:
LogN = log(N)

Display the column Msfinal as X-Axis and LogN as Y-Axis.

Calculate the Least square fit using a polynomial function with 2
terms.

What can you conclude about the a and b values? And what about the
fit of the curve?

Close the map and table windows.

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Case study Kathmandu: GIS for earthquake loss estimation

1.5 RADIUS method

The United Nations Initiative towards Earthquake Safe Cities called RADIUS (Risk
Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban areas against Seismic Disasters, has been
developed based on the experiences in Kathmandu city.

Overview
The following steps are used in the analysis:

Step 1: Defining earthquake scenario. Location of epicentre, magnitude and

depth

Step 2: Calculate the attenuation using the function of Joyner & Boore (1981)

Step 3: Calculate the amplification due to local soil conditions using the soil
map.

Step 4: Convert the Peak Ground Acceleration to Modified Mercalli Intensity

Step 5: Apply Vulnerability Functions for Building types

Step 6: Apply Vulnerability Functions for Infrastructure types

Step 7: Apply Vulnerability Functions for casualties

If additional information on costs and the PGA value for different return periods is
available, the analysis could be extended with the following steps:

Step 8: Apply cost information to the buildings and combine with vulnerability
to calculate losses for different return periods.

Step 9: Combine loss information for different return periods and calculate the
risk by adding up the losses from these periods.

Step 10: Combine information and make summary

The method is schematically shown in the diagram below.

For more information on RADIUS, the reader is referred to the following website:
http://geohaz.org/radius/ or http://www.unisdr.org/unisdr/radiusindex.htm
Figure: Schematic diagram of the RADIUS method

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