ECO POWER (PVT) LTD.

PRESENT STATUS & OVERALL

ELECTRICITY GENERATION PLAN IN SRI
LANKA

Table of Contents
1.
Electricity
Generated
Up

2.
Installed
Capacity
&
Transmission

to

date

Network
2

3. Present Status of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sector (as at

10/01/2015)
3
4.
Base
Load
Forecast:

2015-2039
4

5. Results of Generation Expansion Planning Studies Base Case Plan 20152034 .

5
5.
Reference

1. Electricity Generated Up to date (as at 29/10/2015)

2. Installed Capacity & Transmission Network

3. Present Status of Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Sector

(as at 10/01/2015)

4. Base Load Forecast: 2015-2039

Demand
Yea
r
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019

(GWh
)

Growth
Rate (%)

*Net
Losses

Generation

Peak

Growth
(MW)
Rate (%)

(%)

(GWh)

4.5%
4.3%
6.8%
6.8%
6.8%

2401
2483
2631
2788
2954

6.8%
4.9%
4.9%
5.0%
5.0%

3131
3259
3394
3534
3681

11516
12015
12842
13726
14671

4.1%
4.3%
6.9%
6.9%
6.9%

10.73
10.68
10.62
10.57
10.51

2020
2021
2022
2023
2024

15681
16465
17288
18155
19069

6.9%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%

10.46
10.40
10.35
10.29
10.23

12901**
13451**
1436
8
1534
8
17512
18376
19283
20238
21243

2025
2026
2027
2028
2029

20033
21050
22125
23243
24402

5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.1%
5.0%

10.18
10.12
10.07
10.01
9.96

22303
23421
24601
25829
27100

5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
5.0%
4.9%

3836
4014
4203
4398
4599

2030
2031
2032
2033
2034

25598
26827
28087
29395
30759

4.9%
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
4.6%

9.90
9.84
9.79
9.73
9.68

28410
29756
31135
32565
34055

4.8%
4.7%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%

4805
5018
5235
5459
5692

2035
2036
2037
2038
2039

32184
33673
35231
36862
38569

4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%

9.62
9.57
9.51
9.46
9.40

35611
37235
38934
40711
42571

4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%
4.6%

5934
6187
6451
6726
7013

5 Year
Average
Growth
10
Year

6.24%

6.17%

5.32%

5.76%

5.70%

4.86%

5.31%

5.24%

4.65%

5.17%

5.10%

4.57%

Average
Growth
20
Year
Average
Growth
25
Year
Average
Growth

* Net losses include losses at the Transmission & Distribution levels and any non-technical losses,
Generation (Including auxiliary consumption) losses are excluded.
**Generation fixed for Energy Marketing Branch Energy Demand Forecast 2015-2016, prepared
based on values provided by each Distribution Division

5. Results of Generation Expansion Planning Studies Base Case Plan 20152034

RENEWABLE
ADDITION
S
-

YEAR
2015
2016

35 MW Broadlands HPP
120 MW Uma Oya HPP

2017
2018
2019*

2020
2021
2022

2023

2024
2025
2026

100 MW Mannar Wind Park

Phase I
31 MW Moragolla HPP
15 MW Thalpitigala HPP**
100 MW Mannar Wind Park
Phase
II
50 MW Mannar Wind Park
Phase
20 MWIISeethawaka HPP***
20 MW Gin Ganga HPP**
50 MW Mannar Wind Park
Phase III
25 MW Mannar Wind Park
Phase III
25 MW Mannar Wind Park
Phase III
1x200 MW PSPP***
25 MW Mannar Wind Park
Phase
2x200 III
MW PSPP***

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

THERMAL
ADDITIONS
4x15 MW CEB Barge
Power
Plant
-

THERMAL
RETIREMENT
S Power Plant
4x15 MW Colombo
14x7.11 MW ACE Power
Embilipitiya
-

LOLP
%
0.077
0.150

4x17 MW Kelanitissa Gas Turbines

0.175

2x35 MW Gas Turbine

8x6.13 MW Asia Power

0.299

1x35 MW Gas Turbine

4x18 MW Sapugaskanda diesel

1.140

4x15 MW CEB Barge Power Plant

6x5 MW Northern Power

0.164

2x250 MW Coal
Power Plants
Trincomalee Power
Company Limited
2x300 MW New Coal
Plant
Trincomalee -2, Phase
163 MW Combined Cycle
Plant
+

(KPS 2)

1x300 MW New Coal

plant
Southern Region
1x300 MW New Coal
plant
Southern Region
1x300 MW New Coal
plant
Trincomalee
-2, Coal
Phase
1x300 MW New
plant
Trincomalee
- -2, Phase
2x300 MW New Coal
plant
Southern Region
-

0.360

0.015

163 MW AES Kelanitissa Combined

++
Cycle Plant
115 MW Gas Turbine
4x9 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel Ext.

0.096

0.040

4x9 MW Sapugaskanda Diesel Ext.

0.028

0.003

0.002

0.010

0.007

0.005

0.029

0.003

165 MW Combined Cycle Plant

(KPS)
163 MW Combined Cycle Plant
-

0.142

1x300 MW New Coal

0.118
plant
+
Region
Total PV Cost up to Southern
year 2034,
US$ 12,960.51 million [LKR 1,704.96 billion]

2034

Notes:

Discount rate 10%, Exchange Rate as an average of January 2015 (US$ 1 = LKR. 131.55)

All additions/retirements are carried out at the beginning of each year

Committed plants are shown in Italics. All plant capacities are given in gross values.
+
PV cost includes the cost of Projected Committed NCRE, US$ 1527.9 million based on economic
cost, and an additional
Spinning Reserve requirement is kept considering the intermittency of NCRE plants with a cost
of US$ 471.5 million.
*
In year 2019, minimum Reserve Margin criteria of 2.5% is violated due to generation capacity
limitation, and the minimum
RM is kept at -1.3%.
** Thalpitigala and Gin Ganga multipurpose hydro power plants proposed by Ministry of Irrigation
are forced considering secured Cabinet approval for the implementation of the Projects.

*** Seethawaka HPP and PSPP units are forced in 2022, 2025 and 2026 respectively.
++ IPP AES Kelanitissa scheduled to retire in 2023 will be operated as a CEB power plant from 2023 to
2033.

Moragahakanda HPP will be added in to the system by 2017, 2020 and 2022 with capacities of 10
MW, 7.5 MW and 7.5
MW respectively.

6. Reference
I.
II.
III.
IV.
V.

Electricity Generation
: http://www.ceb.lk/ and http://www.ceb.lk/yesterdayelectricity/
Status of NCRE Sector
: http://www.ceb.lk/do-business-with-us/#tab1439815407733-3-3
Installed Capacity & TX Network
: http://www.ceb.lk/knowledge-center/#tab1442494789429-6-6
Base Load Forecast
: Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2015-2034
Page E-4
Base Case Plan 2015-2034
: Long Term Generation Expansion Plan 2015-2034
Page E-5