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P OL IT IC S

Obama, Explained
As Barack Obama contends for a second term in office, two conflicting
narratives of his presidency have emerged. Is he a skillful political player and
policy visionarya chess master who always sees several moves ahead of
his opponents (and of the punditocracy)? Or is he politically clumsy and out
of his deptha pawn overwhelmed by events, at the mercy of a second-rate
staff and of the Republicans? Here, a longtime analyst of the presidency
takes the measure of our 44th president, with a view to history.

Carolyn Kaster/Associated Press/Corbis Images

J AMES F AL L OWS
MARC H 20 12 IS S UE

INTHELATE1990s,whenhisfellowUniversityofChicagoprofessor
BarackObamahadjustrunfortheIllinoisStateSenateandlongbeforea
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newlyinauguratedPresidentObamanamedhimtohisCouncilofEconomic
Advisers,theeconomistAustanGoolsbeewasonthemostterrifying
airplanetripofhislife.HewastravelingonSouthwestAirlinesfromSt.Louis
backtoChicagosMidwayAirport.Theplanegotintoathunderstorm,and
forawhilemanypassengersthoughttheyweredoomed.
Onejoltofturbulencewassostrongthataflightattendant,notyetstrapped
in,hitherheadontheairplanesceiling.Afteranothersuddendrop,the
lightswentoutononesideofthecabin.Theviolentupsanddownskept
gettingworse.TworowsaheadofGoolsbee,aprofessional-lookingwoman
inher50sbeganwailing,Weregoingtodie!Wereallgoingtodie!
Everyonewaslookingaroundandontheborderofpanic,Goolsbeetold
merecently.Iwaskindofwishingsomeonewouldstartyelling,No,were
allnotgoingtodie!
AtlasttheplanemadeitsafelytoMidway.Aspassengersfiledoff,Goolsbee
spokewithastrappingyoungmanwhohadbeensitting,ashenbutstoicand
silent,inawindowseatnexttothewomanwhosenerveshadbroken.Hewas
ahigh-schoolfootballplayercomingtoChicagoonacollegerecruitingtrip.
Quiteaflight,Goolsbeesaidtohim.Thisismyfirsttimeonanairplane,
theyoungmanreplied.Aretheyalwayslikethat?Icanseewhypeopledont
liketofly.
Goolsbeespunchlinetothestoryisthatduringhistwoyearsin
Washington,Iwasthatkid.Heandhiscolleaguesweretryingtodevise
policiestocopewiththeworstworldwideeconomiccrisisinlivingmemory,
inthemostcontentiouspoliticalenvironmentinnearlyaslongatime.He
wouldaskhimself,Isitalwayslikethis?Hecouldseewhypeopledidntlike
politicsandgovernment.
ButwhenIheardthestory,mythoughtsturnedimmediatelyinanother
direction.Goolsbeemayhavefeltlikethatkid,buttomostoftheworld,the
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moreobviouscomparisonwouldbetothemanwhohiredGoolsbee,Barack
Obama.Fouryearsafterbeingsworninasafreshmansenator,occupyinga
positionofexecutiveauthorityforthefirsttimeinhislife,Obamawas,at
age47,instantlyresponsibleforguidingtheworldssuperpowerandits
alliesthroughanemergencythathadleftfarmoreexperiencedleaders
wailingthepoliticalandfinancialequivalentofWereallgoingtodie!
Inofficeasduringhiscampaignindeed,throughtheentiretyofhissevenplusyearsasanationalfiguresincehiskeynotespeechattheDemocratic
Conventioninthesummerof2004Obamahasmaintainedhisstoic,
unflapped,nodramaair.Duringthefallandwinterof2007,hiscampaign
seemedtobegettingnowhereagainstHillaryClinton,whowasthen,to
knowledgeableobservers,theinevitablenominee.In2008,JohnMcCains
selectionofSarahPalinashisrunningmateseemedtoenergizehis
campaignsomuchthat,despitegatheringsignsoffinancialdisasterunder
theincumbentRepublicans,justafterLaborDaytheMcCain-Palinteamhad
openedupaleadoverObamaandJoeBideninseveralnationalpolls.CBS
NewsandanABCWashingtonPostpollhadMcCainupby2percentage
pointsinearlySeptember,aweekbeforetheLehmanBrothersbankruptcy;a
USATodayGalluppollthatsameweekhadhimaheadbyashocking10
points.ButObamaandBidenstayedunrattledandonmessage,andtwo
monthslatertheywonwithatwo-to-onelandslideintheElectoralCollege
anda7-pointmargininthepopularvote.TheearnestlydevotionalHOPE
posterbyShepardFaireywastheofficialiconoftheObamacampaign.But
itsedgier,unofficialcounterpart,aPhotoshoppedInternetimagethat
appearedasanantidotetothepanicoverpollsandPalin,perfectlycaptured
thecandidatesairoficyassurance.Itshowedano-nonsenseObamalooking
straightatthecamera,withthecaptionEVERYONECHILLTHEFUCK
OUT,IGOTTHIS!
Thehistoryisrelevantbecauseitshowshowquicklyimpressionsofstrength
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orweaknesscanevaporateandbecomealmostimpossibletoreimagine.Try
tothinkbacktowhensophisticatedpeoplethoughtthatSarahPalinwasthe
keytoRepublicanvictory,orwhenObamaseverypoliticalinstinctseemed
inspired.Icanattestpersonallytoanow-startlingfactbehindJimmyCarters
risetothepresidency.Whenhemetprivatelywitheditorial-boardmembers
andveteranpoliticalfiguresacrossthecountryintheearlydaysofhis
campaignpeoplewhohadseencontenderscomeandgoandwere
mercilessinspottingfrailtiesthemajorityofthemwentawayfeelingthatin
Cartertheyhadencounteredapersonoftrulyexceptionalpoliticalinsight
anddepth.(Youmightnotbelieveme;Ihavethenotes.)Isthishowthe
NobelPeacePrizecommitteeschoiceofObamaasitslaureatewithinnine
monthsofhistakingofficewilllookastheyearspassthesymbolofa
markettopintheworldsromanticismaboutObama?
Whetherthingsseemtobegoingverywellorverybadlyaroundhim
whetherheisannouncingthedeathofOsamabinLadenorhislatest
compromiseinthefaceofRepublicanoppositioninCongressObama
alwayspresentsthesamedispassionateface.Hashebeensocalmbecause
hehasunderstoodsomuchaboutthepathaheadofhim,andhasbeenso
cleverinthetrapshehassetforhisrivals?Orhashebeensocalmbecause,
likethehigh-schoolkidontheplane,hehasbeensoinnocentlyunawareof
howdirethesituationhastrulybeen?
Thisisthecentralmysteryofhisperformanceasacandidateanda
president.HasObamainofficebeenanythinglikethechessmasterhe
seemedinthecampaign,whoseplacidveneermaskedanabilitytothink10
movesahead,atwhichpointhisadversarieswouldbelatedlyrecognizethat
theyhadlostlongago?Orhashebeenrevealedasjustapawnaguywho
gotluckyasacampaignerbutisnowpushedaroundbypoliticalopponents
whooutwithimandeconomictrendsthatoverwhelmhim?

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Parsing the President

0:00

3:55

VIDEO:FallowstalkstoAtlanticSeniorEditorCorbyKummer(whoedited
thisstory)aboutObamaschancesforreelectionandwhyhemightactually
havesomethingtolearnfromGeorgeW.Bush.
Theendofapresidentsfirsttermisanimportanttimetoaskthese
questions,andnotjustbecauseoftheobviousbearingonhisfitnessfor
reelection.Hardasitistohaveanydispassionatediscussionofapresidents
performanceduringanelectionyear,itwillbeevenharderoncetheelection
isover.IfayearfromnowObamaissettlinginforasecondterm,ahalo
effectwillextendbacktoeverythinghedidduringhisfirstfouryears.His
programswillbemoreeffectiveinreality,sincehewillgetthatmanymore
yearstocementtheminwithfollow-upmeasures,supportiveappointments
tofederalagenciesandthecourts,andpossiblevetoesofanyattemptsat
repeal.And,throughthelensofhistory,theywillseemmoreeffective,since
whateverhedidinhisfirsttermwillappeartohavebeenpartofanoverall
planthatwasratifiedthroughreelection.Yetifayearfromnowajust-beaten
formerPresidentObamaisthinkingabouthismemoirsandwatchinghis
formerappointeesblameoneanother,andhim,fortheloss,theverysame
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combinationofmisstepsandachievementswillbeviewedasanarrative
leadinginexorablytodefeat.Bysaying,afterayearinoffice,thathewould
ratherbeareallygoodone-termpresidentthanamediocrepresident
whoservedtwoterms,Obamawasplayingtothepopularconceitthat
presidentsshouldriseabovesuchpettyconcernsasreelection.Thereality,
though,isthatourjudgmentaboutreallygoodandmediocrepresidents
iscoloredbyhowlongtheyserve.Afailuretowinreelectionplacesaonetermloserasteriskonevengenuineaccomplishments.AskGeorgeH.W.
Bush,victorintheGulfWar;askJimmyCarter,architectoftheCampDavid
agreement.
Notknowinghowtheelectionwillturnout,whatcanwesaynow?Imnot
talkingabouthowObamalookstotheroughlyone-thirdofAmericanswho
havebeenskepticalofhimfromthestarthishighestapprovalratingwas
around70percent,justafterhetookofficenorabouthowhelookstothe
nearlycomparablenumberwhobytheendoflastyearsaidtheystillhad
stronglyfavorableopinionsofhisperformance.Butfortheseemingly
hugenumberofpeoplewhosensethathehasshrunkinofficeandthathis
administrationhasachievedlessthanitshouldorcouldhave,andfor
scholars,historians,andpoliticalveteranswhohavematcheditagainst
presidenciesofthepast,isthereanobjectivewaytojudgeObamas
competenceandcontrol?
Earlythisyear,justafterObamadaredtheRepublican-controlledHousenot
topassapayroll-tax-cutextensionandthenannouncedrecess
appointmentsfornomineeswhohadbeenblockedbySenatefilibuster,
SamuelPopkin,apoliticalscientistatUCSanDiego,toldmethatthismight
bethebeginningofashrewdTruman-esqueelection-yearplan.Inhis
forthcomingbook,TheCandidate:WhatItTakestoWinandHoldtheWhite
House,hedescribeshowin1946Truman,aftersufferingamidterm-election
setbackevenworsethanClintonsin1994orObamasin2010,basedthe
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come-from-behindsuccessofhisreelectioncampaignontherefusalofa
do-nothingCongresstoworkwithhimoraddressthecountrysproblems.
Startinglatelastyear,whenhedefiedtheHouseRepublicans,Obamahas
seemedtofollowTrumansscript.WhatIdlovetoknowiswhetherthis
wasallacarefullong-termplan,PopkinsaidofObamasevolution,or
whethertheyjustluckedintoit.
Chessmaster,orpawn?ThatisthequestionIaskedavarietyofpolitical
figureslastyear,startingwhentheObamaadministrationwaswrangling
withRepublicansinCongresstoavoidadamagingdefaultonthenational
debt.Ispokewithcurrentandpastmembersofthisadministration,officials
frompreviousadministrations,currentandpastmembersoftheSenateand
theHouse,andsomeacademics.Comparedwiththelasttwotimesa
DemocratwasintheWhiteHouseduringJimmyCartersadministrationin
thelate1970sandBillClintonsinthe1990sIfoundDemocratsmuch
morecarefulaboutcriticizingtheirownpartyspresidentduringanelection
year.ItsnotthatDemocratshavebecomesomuchmoredisciplined,nor,
obviously,thattheyhavenocomplaints,butratherthattheyseemmore
worriedabouttherisksofhelpingtheotherside.Iaskedsomeonewhohas
beenclosetoObamaifIcouldinterviewhimabouthisexperiences.Hesaid,
Imnotgoingtosayanythingthatmighthurtduringthecampaign.Atthe
Capitol,IaskedoneprominentDemocraticlegislatorwhathehadlearned
aboutObamaasaleaderandapersonthatthegeneralpublicdidnotknow.
Hesatfornearlyafullminuteandthenreplied,Iwouldrathernotsay.But
otherpeopleIspokewithfromCongressandinsideandoutsidethe
administrationvolunteeredsincere-seemingflatteringaccountsofthe
Obamatheyhadobservedininformaldiscussionsandstrategysessions.
Becauseofsensitivitiesonallsides,thisarticleincludessomethingour
magazinetrieshardtoavoid:criticalopinionsinblindquotes,frompeople
notwillingtobenamed.IneverycasewhereIveusedsuchaquote,itsfrom
apersonItrustandwhowasinapositiontoobservetheeventsbeing
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described.
Havingseenanumberofpresidenciesunfold,andsomeunravel,Iamfully
awareofhowdifficultitistoassesstheminrealtime.WhatIfeelIve
learnedaboutObamaisthathewasunreadyforthepresidencyand
temperamentallyunsuitedtoitinmanyways.Yettheconjunctionofrightwinghostilitytohisprogramsandtohisverypresenceinoffice,withleftwingdisappointmentinhiseconomicrecordanddespairabouthisapparent
inabilitytofightRepublicansontheirownterms,ledtoanunderappreciation
ofhisskillsandaccomplishmentsanunderappreciationthatisas
pronouncedastheoverestimationinthoseheadyearlydays.Unprepared,
yes.Cooltothepointofchilly,yes.Forallhisabilitytoinspireandmotivate
peopleenmasse,forallhisadvertisedemphasisonsurroundinghimself
withafirst-rateteamofrivals,Obamaappearstohavebeenunsavvyin
theFDR-likeartsofgettingthebestfromhisimmediateteamandcontinuing
toattractthebestpeopletohim.
Yetthetestforpresidentsisnotwheretheybeginbuthowfasttheylearnand
wheretheyendup.NotevenFDRwasFDRatthestart.Theevidenceisthat
Obamaislearning,fast,tousethetoolsofoffice.Whetherheislearningfast
enoughtohaveachancetoapplytheseskillsinasecondtermwell,well
reconvenenextyear.
Why Presidents Fail
Wejudgepresidentsbythespecificexpectationstheyasktobemeasured
against:inspiration(Kennedy,Reagan,Obama),competenceandexperience
(Eisenhower,thefirstGeorgeBush),strategiccunning(Johnson,Nixon),
integrityandpersonalprobity(Carter),inclusivenessandempathy(Clinton),
unshakableresolve(thesecondBush).Buteventuallyeachisjudgedagainst
hispredecessors,aprocessthatproperlystartswithareminderthatallbegin
theirtermsill-equipped,inwaysthathindsighttendstoobscure.
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ThesoberingrealitiesofthemodernWhiteHouseare:Allpresidentsare
unsuitedtooffice,andthereforeallpresidentsfailincertaincrucialaspects
ofthejob.Allbetraytheirsupportersandprovokebittercriticismfromtheir
ownsideatsomepointintheirterm.Andallaremis-assessedwhilein
office,forreasonsthattypicallydependmoreonluckandhistoricalaccident
thanonfactorswithintheircontrol.TheserealitiesdonotexcuseObamas
failings,buttheydoputhisevolutioninperspective.
Presidentsfailbecausenottofailwouldrequire,intheageofmodern
communicationsandglobalresponsibilities,arangeofnativetalentsand
learnedskillsnorealpersonhaseverpossessed.Theseincludesmartsin
thenormalsensetheanalyticalabilitytocopewiththestreamofshort-and
long-termdecisionsthatcomeatapresidentnonstop.(Howseriousisthe
latestprovocationoutofNorthKorea?Whataretheoutyearbudget
implicationsofachangeinMedicaidrepaymentformulas?)Apresident
needsrhetoricalclarityandeloquence,sothathecanexplaintopublicsat
homeandaroundtheworldtheintentbehindhisactionsandatleastas
importantsothateveryoneinsidetheadministrationunderstandshis
prioritiesclearlyenoughthathedoesnothavetowadeintoeverylittlepolicy
fighttoenforcehispreferences.
Apresidentneedsempathyandemotionalintelligence,sothathecanprevail
inpoliticaldealingswithhisownpartyandtheoppositioninWashington,
andinface-to-facenegotiationswithforeignleaders,whootherwisewillgo
awaysayingthatthispresidentisweakandthatthecountrysleadership
roleissuspect.Heneedstobeconfidentbutnotarrogant;open-mindedbut
notaweathervane;resolutebutstilladaptable;historicallymindedbut
highlyalerttothepresent;visionarybutpractical;personallydisciplinedbut
notaprigormartinet.Heshouldbephysicallyfit,disease-resistant,and
capableofbeingfullyalertatamomentsnoticewhenthephoneringsat3
a.m.yetalsoabletosleepeachnight,despiteunremittingtensionand
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withoutchemicalaids.
Ideallyhewouldbeself-awareenoughthat,inthecenterofasystemthat
treatshimasemperor-god,hecouldstillrecognizehisowndefectsandtryto
offsetthem.ThepsychoanalystJustinFrankhaswrittenObamaontheCouch
asafollow-uptoBushontheCouch,examiningthepsychologicalrootsof
eachpresidentsstrengthsandweaknessesinoffice.GeorgeW.Bush:
eternallycravingapprovalfromhisdistantmotherandmoreaccomplished
father(andfinallysurpassinghim,solelyinbeingreelected).BarackObama:
aloofandunconnectedbecauseofhisabsentfatherandhiseternalstatusas
outsider.
Youcantakethispsychoanalyticapproachseriously,ornot.Thesignificant
factisthatanabnormal-psychstudycouldbewrittenoneverypresidentof
themoderneraexcepttheonewhoneverranfornationaloffice,GeraldR.
Ford,andpossiblyalsothefirstGeorgeBush.WhenIheardcritical
commentsaboutObamaspersonalstyle,theyusuallystartedwiththistrait:
hisemotionaldistancefromallbutahandfuloflongtimefriendsand
advisers.
Anewpresidentsfirsttermisusuallyanexperimentinseeingwhichweak
pointwilllimiteverythingelsehedoes.GeorgeW.Bushwasdisciplinedand
decisivebutnotsufficientlyinformedorinquisitive.BillClintonwas
informedandinquisitivebutwasnearlydrivenfromofficebecausehewas
notpersonallydisciplined.GeorgeH.W.Bushwasdisciplinedandinformed
butcouldnotseemempatheticorvisionary.RonaldReaganwaseloquent
anddecisivebutlessandlessattentivetotheanalyticpartofhisjob.Youcan
takethelistbackaverylongway.Manypresidentswhosurvivetoasecond
termandtherebyattaintheultimateinpoliticalsuccessseetheirpreexisting
failingsbearworsefruit.ImpeachmentforBillClinton,Iran-Contrafor
RonaldReagan,impeachmentandresignationforRichardNixon,andsoon.
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(ThemaincontemporaryexceptionhasbeenGeorgeW.Bush,whosemost
controversialdecisionsandeventsalloccurredduringhisfirstfouryears
fromtheinvasionofIraqtopassageoftheexpensiveMedicarePartD
benefitstotheoutsizedroleofhisvicepresidentandwhoinhissecond
termtackedbackfrommanyofthosepolicies.)
Anotherharshrealityofthemodernpresidencyisoneweconveniently
forgetwhenthinkingaboutnewpresidents.Withoutexception,theybetray
theirfollowersandmustdoso,tostayinofficeandgovern.InObamas
case,thisstartedwiththeforgivingapproachtoWallStreetandcontinued
withhisrecommitmentoftroopstoAfghanistanandextensionofother
Bush-erasecuritypolicies.
Howeverjarring,thisispartofahistoricalnorm.GeorgeW.Bushsname
wasbarelymentionedintherecentRepublicanprimaries,becauseaparty
thatprofessesconcernaboutdebt,deficit,andbigbailoutscannoteasilytalk
aboutwhathappenedonhiswatch.BillClintonnowreignsasthe
DemocraticPartyssunkingandsavior.ButinofficeClintoninfuriated
muchoftheconstituencythathadelectedhim,withhissupportforwelfare
reform,hisperceivedbunglingoftheefforttopassanationalhealth-care
plan,andtheriseinhispersonalpopularitythatfollowedtheDemocrats
historiclossofcontrolinCongress.JustafterClintonwassworninforhis
secondterm,thismagazinepublishedacoverstorycalledTheWorstThing
BillClintonHasDone.ItwasbyPeterEdelman,whohadresignedasa
senioradministrationofficialtoprotestthecompromisesClintonmadewith
NewtGingrichsRepublicansinpassingthewelfare-reformbill.After
Clintonleftoffice,TheAtlanticsJackBeattywrote,ListeningtoBillClinton
byturns,charming,shrewd,andwisespeakattheopeningofhis
presidentiallibraryinLittleRocklastweek,broughthomeanewthegap
betweenhisgiftsofbrain,heart,andspeech,andwhathemadeofthemas
president.InthishecomparesunfavorablytoGeorgeW.Bush.Anything
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thatbitterliberalshavesaidaboutBarackObamasweaknessand
willingnesstocompromisewassaidmorebitterlyabouttheprevious
Democraticpresident.
ThefirstGeorgeBushagreedtoraisetaxestobalancethebudgetandinso
doingviolatedhisReadmylips!promisetoopposealltaxincreases.This
leftconservativesfeelingsobetrayedthatinhisreelectioncampaignhe
facedfirstastrongprimarychallengebyPatBuchananandthenthethirdpartycandidacyofRossPerot.RonaldReaganspentthefirstyearofhis
administrationcuttingtaxesandthenextsevenagreeingtocontinued
increases.Beforehim,JimmyCartersoantagonizedtheleftthatits
champion,TeddyKennedy,wagedabitterprimaryfightagainsthimand
badlyweakenedhimforthegeneralelection.Youcantakethislist,too,asfar
backasyoulike.
TorecognizethislonghistoryisnottodefendanyofthespecificObama-era
policiesthathavemostdisappointedhisoriginalsupporters.Itisinsteada
reminderthateverypresidenttakesinfuriatingstepsawayfromthebase
sometimesforreasonsthatlookinretrospectlikestatesmanship(Nixonwith
China),strategicerror(JohnsonwithVietnam),ormerecreationofpolitical
maneuveringroom(ClintonstriangulationaftertheRepublicanvictories
of1994).Itiseasytoforgetthisintheexasperationthatsurroundsthe
incumbentofthemoment.Andthishistoryissystematicallyforgottenevery
fouryears.Afterall,thequestionineachcampaignisadifferentandsimpler
one.ItisnotHowmanyofhisaspirationswillthispresidentfulfill,and
whattrade-offsmusthemakealongtheway?butratherIshebetteror
worsethanthatotherperson?
Thereisonelastcertaintyaboutassessingpresidents,whichisthattheir
prospectsforpoliticalsurvivalandreelectionarefarmorefluidand
uncertainthanwewillthinktheywerewhenwelookbackonthem.With
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nearly20yearshindsight,itisobvioustoeveryonethattheClinton
administrationsHillarycareplanwasapoliticaldisaster.Butwhenitwas
firstpresentedtoCongress,itwaspopularinopinionpollsandwasexpected
topass.(Skeptical?InSeptember1993,justaftertheplanwasunveiled,the
veteranpoliticalanalystWilliamSchneiderwrote,Thereviewsareinand
theboxofficeisterrific.PresidentClintonshealthcarereformplanisahit
Themorepeoplereadandhearabouttheplan,themoretheyseemtolike
it.)Twoweeksaftertheplansrelease,theBlackHawkDowndisaster
occurredinSomalia,whichledtotheresignationofClintonsdefense
secretaryandacascadeofproblemsfortheadministration.Ayearlater,
NewtGingrichandhisRepublicanshadtakencontroloftheHouse,andthe
health-care-reformerawasoverfortheClintons.Itisincomparisonwiththe
Clintonsnear-missthatObamaspassageofahealth-carebillthefirstitem
ofcomplaintbyhiscriticsisconsideredsuchanachievementbyveteransof
otherDemocraticadministrations.
Similarly,itisretrospectivelyobviousthatRonaldReaganwasgoingto
trounceJimmyCarter.Weknowthathecarried44statesagainstCarterin
1980andwentontoa49-statelandslideagainstWalterMondalefouryears
later.ButCarterdespitetheAmericanhostagesinIran,despitehighgas
pricesandabadeconomy,despitetheprimarychallengebyTeddyKennedy
andthethird-partychallengebyJohnAnderson,despiteeverythingwas
neck-and-neckwithReagan,andaheadofhiminsomepolls,untilthelast
fewdaysofthecampaign.
Evenatthetime,itwasobvioustoeveryonethatRichardNixonwasgoingto
trounceGeorgeMcGovernin1972.ButlessthansixmonthsbeforeElection
Day,NixonfeltuncertainenoughtodeploytheWatergateburglarstobreak
intoDemocraticheadquartersandtrytogainanextraedge.GeorgeH.W.
Bush,withan89percentapprovalratingjustaftertheGulfWar,wasso
obviouslyheadedtowardreelectionthathecouldbarelytakethecallowBill
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Clintonseriously.Fouryearslater,withanObama-esque42percent
approvalratingatthebeginningofhisreelectionyear,Clintonwasobviously
introublebutwentontoanoverwhelmingwin.
WhatevernowseemsobviousaboutObamasstrengthsandweaknesses,the
futureperceptionofhisachievementsandelectoralfatewillbesubjectto
luckandtotheadjustmentshewillmake,orfailtomake,inhisown
performance.Thispointtooisobvious,exceptthattheentirepoliticalpunditindustryrestsonamnesiaaboutitsownlong-failedrecordoflooking
ahead.LawrenceSummers,fortwoyearstheheadofObamaseconomic
council,madeasimilarargumentaboutObamashealth-carelegislation.If
heisreelected,40yearsfromnowthiswillbelikeMedicarean
achievementthatispartofthelandscapeandthatpeoplecantimaginebeing
without.AndifObamashouldlose,Summerstoldme,andespeciallyif
conservativejudgesafterhisdepartureoverturnsomeofitsprovisions,
thenthehealth-careplanwillbepresentedasasignofoverreachand
hubrisandtheadministrationsinevitablefailure.
Obamawasblessedbyluckandskillinhiscampaign,buthis
administrationhadbadluckevenbeforeitbegan.Heendedupgoverninga
countryheneverexpectedtogovern,GaryHart,theformersenatorand
presidentialcandidate,toldme.ThecruxoftheObamaadministrations
problemscanbetracedtoOctober2008,withtheacceleratingfinancial
collapse.Youhaveapresidentwhointhelastdaysofhiscampaignbeganto
understandthathewasgoingtohavetomakefundamentaladjustmentsin
everythinghehadintended.WellneverknowwhatanObamapresidency
absenttheeconomiccatastrophewouldhavelookedlike.
Every President Is Ill-Suited to Office, Each in a Different Way
WhathavewelearnedaboutBarackObamasparticularversionsofthe
weaknesseseverypresidentbringstooffice?ThediagnosesIheard,andhave
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myselfobserved,fallintofourmaincategories:
Inexperience:thatObamasownlackofexecutiveexperiencelefthimreliant
ontheinstinctsandinstitutionalmemoryofothersandsincesomanyof
hisappointeescamefromtheClintonadministration,hewasalsovulnerable
to90s-vintagegroupthinkamongthem.Thiswasparticularlytrue,aswell
see,duringhisresponsetotheeconomiccrisisinhisfirstyearinoffice,and
thenduringhisshowdownswithCongressafterTeaPartyinspired
RepublicansregainedcontroloftheHouse.
Coldness:thatwhatlookssereneinpubliccanseemdistantandaloofinhis
privatedealingsandnegotiations.
Complacencyabouttalent:thatthedisciplinedexcellencehedemandsof
himselfinphysicalfitnessandappearance,inliterarypolishofhis
speeches,inunvaryingcontrolofhismoodandpublicpresentationhasnot
extendedtodemandsforacomparablyexcellentsupportingstaff.
Symbolicmismatch:thatObamaspersonalachievementinrisingtothe
presidencybetokened,formuchoftheelectorate,farmoresweeping
ambitionsforpoliticalchangethanObamatheincrementalistoperatorever
hadinmind.
Youcouldwriteatreatiseoneachofthese,asscholarsundoubtedlywill.
Hereisthesortofmaterialyouwoulduseinthediscussion.
Aboutinexperience:Thekeytoeverythingisthathewasafirst-termsenator,
andonewhobeganrunningforthepresidencyinthesecondyearofhisfirst
term,GaryHarttoldme.Governorshavebetteroddsofbecoming
president,buttheSenatecanbeanidealplacetomeetthenewthinkers,
hearaboutthingsandideasthatareoverthehorizon,anddevelopyourown
networkofpeopleyoutrustandwilldrawfrom.Becausehebeganrunning
soquickly,thatissomethinghehadlittlechancetodo.
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SeveralpeoplepointedoutthatBillClinton,thoughyoungerthanObama
whenhebecamepresident,haddevelopedanetworkofadvisers,friends,
andthinkersthroughhisnearly12yearsasagovernorandalifetimeasa
contact-makeracrosstheUnitedStatesandaroundtheworld.Bythetime
BillClintonranfortheWhiteHouse,thousandsofpeopleconsidered
themselvesFOBs,FriendsofBill.Ifyouaskedwhohisclosestorbest
friendwas,apartfromHillary,youwouldnevergettotheendofthe
answers.ObamahadamuchthinnerarrayofFriendsofBarack.WhenI
askedassociatesandfriendswhohisconfidantswere,apartfromMichelle,
theonenamethatkeptrecurringwasValerieJarrett,aclosefriendofboth
ObamasinChicagoandasenioradviserintheWhiteHouse,sometimes
followedbyhisstrategistDavidAxelrod.Becausehisownnetworkof
adviserswaslimited,andaspartofthesettlementofthebitterprimary
battlewithHillary,ObamainheritedmanyoftheClintonscontactsand
teammembers.
Inanynewadministrationthe20-somethingswhodbeenworkinginthe
campaigngetthesecond-andthird-layerstaffjobs,Hartsaid.Andfor
Obama,youhadhisimmediateChicagogroup.Butthestaffandpolicy
positionsthePodestas[JohnPodesta,ClintonsWhiteHousechiefofstaff
whoco-chairedObamastransitionteam]andRahms[RahmEmanuel,a
ClintonWhiteHouseadviserwhobecameObamasfirstchiefofstaff],and
inState,Defense,andtheNSCitwasessentiallyathirdClintonterm.
Somesuchcarryoverisinevitableandhealthy,sincejuniormembersofone
administrationarenaturalcandidatesforseniorpoststhenexttimetheir
partycomestopower.ThedifferencemanypeoplestressedwasObamas
comparativelackofanoffsettingteamofhisown,andtheedgethatgaveto
thosewhoseinstinctsweredevelopedintheClintonera.WhenIlookatthe
firstyear,onepersontoldme,Iseepeoplesaying,Hereiswhatwetried
todointhe90s,letstryitagainandhereismyRolodex[sic!]ofpeopleto
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worktheproblem.ApersonwhohasworkedcloselywiththeWhiteHouse
staffsaid,Earlyon,youhadalltheseClinton-eraeconomist-technocrat
typesLawrenceSummers,PeterOrszag,TimothyGeithner,andthelike.
Thedangeristhatifoneofthemismakingamistake,everybodyagrees,
andtheyreallmakingthesamemistake.
Anotherperson,whohasextensivenational-levelexperience,saidthatthe
biggestsurpriseforanynewpresidentisthestrainplaceduponthe
decision-makingmuscle,sincethechoicesthatcomeuponhimeveryday
arepreciselythosetherestofthegovernmenthasnotbeenabletoresolve.
Thequestionforsomeonewhoseonlyrealexecutivetraininghasbeenthe
managementofhiscampaignishowquicklythatmusclewilldevelopand
improve;asitisdeveloping,theinstinctsandinstitutionalmemoryofthose
aroundhiminevitablyhavegreateffect.Obamafrequentlyemphasizeshow
manytroubleshefacedassoonashetookoffice.Therealproblem,foran
inexperiencedpresident,isthathehadtomakesomanybigdecisionsso
fast.HowtoughtogetonWallStreet;howhardtopushforextrastimulus;
howmuchtimetogiveCongresstomullhealth-careplans;howmuchto
trusttheRepublicanstocooperate;howlongtodelayonenergyand
environmentalplansthesearejustsomeofthechoicesObamahadtomake
aboutdomesticaffairs.
Withtheclarityofhindsight,manyofthechoiceslookill-considered,tosay
theleast.HeshouldhavebeenharderonWallStreet,lesspatientabout
draftingofthehealth-carebill,moresuspiciousofRepublicaneffortsto
blockhislegislationandnominees.Plus,heshouldhavemadesurethat
MarthaCoakleyknewwhoCurtSchillingwas!Ithinktheymadea
fundamentalstrategicerrorinpresentingthehealth-careplanthewaythat
theydid,JimWebb,theDemocraticsenatorfromVirginia,toldme.They
weresoconsciousofnotpresentingCongresswitha1,000-pagefait
accompli,whichwasthebigcomplaintabouttheClintonplan,thatthey
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farmeditouttofivecommitteesandlet7,000pagesofhealth-careplans
percolateup.WalterMondale,theformervicepresident,madeasimilar
point.Hehadhishoneymoon,buthetookthepositionthathewouldlet
Congressworkthisallout.Ithinkapresidenthasgottobeonlegislators
backsallthewaythrough,oritwontgetdoneorwillbedoneinawaythat
involvesallkindsofprivatepackagesontheHill.
Thesemisjudgmentsweretheresultofhisowninexperienceandhis
relianceonastaffwhoseownformativeexperiencesweremainlyfromthe
Clintonyearsandwhowererefightingsomeofthosebattlesunderdifferent
circumstances.Butthroughthepastyear,hisdecisionmuscleappearsto
havedeveloped.Hehascontinuedtomakebigstrategiccallsfrom
authorizingtheassaultonOsamabinLadentodefyingtheRepublicansover
thepayroll-taxholidayandmosthavegonehisway.
Coolor Cold?
Aboutcoldness,thenextitemonthestandardlistofcomplaints:Politicians
appealtotheleftbrainideas,interestsbutatleastasmuchtothe
emotions,hopes,andinsecuritiesassociatedwiththebrainsrightside.
PoliticsinsideWashingtonalsorunsoncountlesssmallactsofflatteryand
social-favorexchange:WhogetsticketsfortheWhiteHouseboxatthe
KennedyCenter?Whowillgetasignedpicturewiththepresidenttodisplay
ontheofficesbragwall?
PresidentObamasextra-highintellectualcapacityissimplynotmatched
byhisemotionalcapacity,Iwastoldbysomeonewithlongexperiencein
theexecutivebranch.Surprisinglyforsomeonewholedsuchan
inspirationalcampaign,hedoesnotseemtohavetheabilitytoconnectwith
people.Atthenon-gloriousbutimportantretaillevelofpolitics,thisleads
tocomplaintsbyDemocraticrepresentativesandsenatorsabouthavingto
askforthesmallstrokestotheirvanitythatmattersomuch,andthat
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politiciansasdifferentasBillClintonoreitheroftheGeorgeBusheswould
administerinstinctively.Oneseniorfund-raiser,whoconsideredhimself
beyondhavinganyspecificfavorstoaskoftheadministration,keptwaiting
foraninvitationtovisittheWhiteHouse.Eventuallyhewasinvitedfora
briefingthere,alongwithanumberofotherswhohadplayedsupportive
rolesinthecampaign.Thepresidentwalkedin,hesatdowninthefrontrow
ofthebriefingroom,helistenedalongwitheveryoneelse,andthenhe
walkedoutwithoutspeakingtoanyone,apersonfamiliarwiththeevent
said.Peoplewouldjustassoonhavenotbeeninvited.Iheardvariationsof
thisstoryfromlegislatorsandothersintheroleofmiffedsupporter.
YouhearthiskindofgripingaboutwhoeverisintheWhiteHouse;andifyou
havetheslightestintrovertedtendencyyourself,youcansympathizewith
thedesirenottobeonandengagedwithpeoplewhowantyourattention
everyinstantoftheday.BillClinton,ofcourse,isnotfullyaliveunlesson.
LikeClintonandunlikeGeorgeW.Bush,BarackObamaissaidtobeanight
owl.Butintheweehours,Clintonwouldbeonthephone,playingcardswith
friends,gabbingabouthistoryandpolitics,ordoinganythingelsethat
involvedlivehumancompany.Obamaismorelikelytobespendingtime
withpapersorabook,oreventobeonlineprowlingthroughthesame
blogsandnewssitesastherestofus,whichissomehowunnervinggivena
presidentsotherwisetotalcocooningfromthedailydetailsofshopping,
driving,waiting,inordinaryAmericanslives.
ItturnsoutthatObamaissufficientlyawareofandsensitiveabouthisMr.
Spocklikeimagetohavecalleditthebiggestmisconceptionabouthimin
ayear-endinterviewwithBarbaraWaltersonABCinDecember.Itwas
entirelywrong,hesaid,forthepublictothinkofhimasbeingdetached,or
Spock-like,orveryanalytical.PeoplewhoknowmeknowthatIamasoftie.I
mean,stuffcanchokemeupveryeasily.Thechallengeformeisthatinthis
jobpeoplewantyoutobeverydemonstrativeinyouremotions.Andif
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yourenotsortofshowingitinaverytheatricalway,thensomehowit
doesnttranslateoverthescreen.
Whateverhethinkshisrealemotionalmakeupmightbe,thechallengeof
showingit,andtranslatingitoverthescreen,affectshisabilitytolead.As
anexplainerofideasthroughrhetoric,Obamahasfewrecentpeers.Andat
leasttwiceinthepastfouryears,hehaschangednationalopinion,and
politicallysavedhimself,throughtheemotionalcontentofhiswordsand
presence.OncewasinMarch2008,whenthemediastormabouthisradicalsoundingpastor,JeremiahGodDamnAmerica!Wright,threatenedtoend
hiscandidacy.ThenObamarespondedwithhisspeechinPhiladelphiaabout
themeaningofraceinAmericawhichatleastforawhile,andforatleast
enoughoftheelectoratetolethimsurvive,madehismixed-raceheritagea
symbolnotofthreateningothernessbutofthecountrystruenature.Then,
inJanuaryoflastyear,hispartyshistoricroutduringthemidtermelections
hadmadeObamaseemasshrunkenanddefeatedafigureasBillClintonhad
seemedafterhismidtermlosses16yearsbefore.Butevenhisusual
opponentshailedObamasspeechinTucsonafterthehorrificshootingof
RepresentativeGabbyGiffordsandothers,foritssoberbuthealing
emotionalpower.Oneconservativeblog,PowerLine,saiditwasabrilliant,
spellbinding,andfittingspeech;JohnPodhoretz,aformerspeechwriterfor
RonaldReagan,wroteintheNewYorkPostthatitwasbeautifulandmoving
andpowerful.Politically,thisiswhenObamaseemedtoreturntolifeafter
themidtermdisaster.
JimmyCarter,likeObamaprimarilyacreatureoftheleftbrain,hadno
comparablemomentsofemotionallytriumphantrhetoric.Butelevatedas
theyare,suchmomentsarestillexceptionstoObamasmainlyrational
appeal.Hisnaturalregisterinvolvesgreatissuesoflawandracebutnot
economics,andespeciallynoteconomicstruggle,whichhasturnedouttobe
thecommandingdomesticissueofhistime.Obamaranforofficewhenthe
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mosturgentissuesseemedtobewarandpeace,plusthemoralbasisof
Americasstandingintheworld.Hehasendedupgoverningwhenthemost
urgentissuehasbeenjobs-jobs-jobs,which,asamatterbothofpolicyandof
rhetoricalconnection,comeslessnaturallytohim.
Politicschangeswhenpeoplecantpayfortheirhomemortgagesandcant
affordmedicalcareandcantsendtheirkidstoschool,WalterMondaletold
me.Itissuchahumiliatingblowtobetheheadofafamilyandbeunableto
workandprovide,thatpeopledontrespondentirelyrationallyallthetime.
Itcanexplodeinpoliticsinahard-to-understandway.Mondalesaidthat
untilthemidtermelections,Obamawasseenincorrectly,inMondales
viewasanaloofanddiffidentpresidentintheeyesofthosewhowere
suffering.Buthehasnow,Mondalethinks,changedhistone.
Thepresident,anotherveryexperiencedDemocraticpoliticiantoldme,
istheonlypersonintheAmericansystemwhorepresentsallthepeople,
andlearningwhatyouneedtoknowtoeffectivelyrepresentallthepeopleis
reallyimpossibletodowithintellectalone.Youhavetounderstand,
emotionally,whatpeoplearefeelingandgoingthrough.Youhavetocut
throughwhateverintellectualjargonisgivenyoubyyouradvisersand
pollsters,andcutrighttothecore.WedontseethatinObama.Ihaveseen
himtrytosynthesizeit,butitcomesacrossassynthetic.
Complacencyabouttalent?Thisisawoundingchargeforanyadministration,
andperhapsthemostsurprisingthingtohearaboutonethathasaformer
senatorandpresidentialcontenderinoneCabinetpostandaNobelPrize
winningphysicistinanother,thatattractedaprospectiveRepublican
presidentialcandidatetothemostimportantoverseasdiplomatic
assignment,andthatatdifferentstageshasdeployedthelikesofDavid
Petraeus,RobertGates,andthelateRichardHolbrooke.Buthereisa
representativestory,whichIheardseveraltimes:Justbeforethemidterm
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elections,whichundidthen-RepresentativeRahmEmanuelsachievementof
leadingaDemocratictakeoveroftheHousein2006,Emanuelannounced
thathewasleavingasWhiteHousechiefofstafftorunformayorof
Chicago.ShortlyafterWilliamDaley,himselfthesonandbrotherofChicago
mayors,succeededEmanuelintheWhiteHouse,hecametoObamawithhis
initialreport.Youarereeling,hesaidstatingtheobviousafterthe
Republicansurge.Partoftheproblemisthattheteamaroundyouisnot
goodenough.Toraiseyourgame,youhavetosurroundyourselfwiththe
bestpeopleavailable.Therehavetobechanges.
Obamathoughtaboutit,andreportedlycalledDaleybackinafewdayslater.
Ilikemyteam,hesaid.IamcomfortablewithwhoIhavearoundme.Just
sotheresnomiscommunication,ImsayingthatIlikethisteam.(The
WhiteHousedeclinedtocommentontheepisode.)
Thepeopleheismostcomfortablewithhavethesamelimitsof
experiencehedoes,aveteranpoliticalfiguretoldme.Anemotional
relianceonpeoplewhoaregoodpeople,andsmart,butsimplynotA-plus
playersitsalimit.Thesediscussionsoftenrevolvearoundthecentralrole
ofValerieJarrettintheObamasprofessionalandsociallives.Her
supporterssaythatsheistheonefriendtheycantrulytrust;herdetractors
saythatheromnipresenceillustratesthenarrownessofthepresidents
contacts.
Again,ifyouhavebeenaroundpolitics,youhaveheardcomplaintsabout
everyWhiteHousestaffthisoneistooquarrelsome,thatoneistoo
paranoid.TheoneIwaspartof,intheCarteradministration,wascalled
Dogpatch-likeandincompetentinitstime.Severalpeoplewhospokeonthe
record,likeLawrenceSummers,madetheoppositecaseaboutObama.
SomeWhiteHousestaffsarewellorganizedanddisciplined,butthe
presidentisdistant,hesaid.Othershaveintensepresidentialinvolvement
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butalsosomechaos,withmicromanagementandrelitigation.Obamas
operation,hesaid,hasbeendistinctive.TheObamateam,hesaid,stands
outforhavingbothintensepresidentialinvolvementandreasonable
organizationalorder.Still,thiswastheminorityviewandgiventhe
brillianceofObamascampaignandtherigorofhisstandardsforhimself,a
subparcollectionoftalentisnotthecomplaintIexpectedtohear.
Andsymbolicmismatch?Onthenighthewaselected,asarhetoricalopening
ofhisspeechtothethrongsinGrantPark,Obamasaid,Changehascome
toAmerica.Hewascarefultoaddthathiselectionwasonlythebeginning,
thattherewashardworkanddisappointmentandthoughhedidntusethe
wordcompromisestillahead.Buteverypresidentialelectionseemsatthe
timetosignalanewera,andthatnightthesuccessofahandsomeyoung
blackintellectualinevitablyarousedexpectationsofcomparablydramatic
changesinpolicies.Igettheimportanceofhisownachievement,andI
celebrateit,butitwasthewrongthingtosay,aseniorDemocraticofficial
toldme.Heopenedhimselftotheinterpretationthatthegreatstrugglewas
overjustbyvirtueofhisbeingelected,thatchangehadcometoAmerica
beforehehadspentadayinoffice.
InaninfluentialAtlanticcoverstorypublishedbeforetheelection,called
GoodbyetoAllThat:WhyObamaMatters,AndrewSullivanarguedthat
preciselybecauseofwhoObamawasnotjustofmixedracebutofanew
generation,onenotdoomedtoendlesstrenchwarfareinthecultural
strugglesthatbeganinthe1960shiselectionwouldinitselfbesignificant,
apartfromanypolicieshemightenact.Exceptforhisearlyandpolitically
crucialoppositiontotheIraqWarthechoicethatmadehimratherthan
HillaryClintontheDemocraticnomineeObamaspoliciesplacedhim,if
anything,totherightofClintonandtherestoftheDemocraticfield.For
instance,heattackedClintonshealth-careplanbecauseitincludedan
individualmandatetobuyinsurance.Ifamandatewasthesolution,he
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saidonCNNnotlongafterhervictoryintheNewHampshireprimary,we
cantrythattosolvehomelessnessbymandatingeverybodytobuyahouse.
Nooneremembered.AmanwholookedthewayObamadidandranonthe
platformofHopenecessarilyfacedexpectationsthatwouldneverhavefallen
onaPresidentJohnKerry,orJoeBiden,orHillaryClinton.IfObamaloses
thisyear,inescapablyhewillbejudgedasadisappointmentnotsimplyfor
havinglostbutforhavinggovernedinsuchaprosaicstyleaftercampaigning
withsuchpoetry.AfterVclavHavelsdeath,latelastyear,TheNewYork
TimesreportedthathehadmetObamashortlyafterObamasinauguration
andgivenhimawarning.Limitlesshopeprojectedontoaleadercouldbe
dangerous,Havelreportedlysaid,sincedisappointmentcouldboilover
intoangerandresentment.ObamatoldHavelthat,asTheTimesputit,he
wasbecomingacutelyawareofthepossibility.
What Obama Has Done
Obamasopponentswillarguethisyearthathehasbeenbothincompetent
anddiabolicallyeffective:tooweakindefendingthenationsinterests,and
alltooskillfulinadvancinghissocialistagenda.Themostdisappointedofhis
formersupportersmayfeelthatthehopeshehasdashedoutweighthe
achievementshehaswon.Ayearfromnow,wellallknowwhatwethink.
WhatIveconcludednowisthatObamahasshownthemaintraitwecan
hopeforinapresidentanabilitytogrowandadaptandthatthereasonto
opposehisreelectionwouldbedisagreementwithhisgoals,notthathe
provedunabletorisetothejob.Astimehasgoneon,hehasgivenincreasing
evidencethattheskillshedisplayedinthecampaignwerenotpurelyafluke.
Threeofthemostimportantthingshehasdonearehardesttoappreciate,
TomDaschle,theformerSenatemajorityleaderandanearlysupporterof
Obamaspresidentialcampaign,toldme.ObamahadnamedDaschleto
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headhishealth-careinitiativeassecretaryofHealthandHumanServices,
butDaschlewithdrewinacontroversyoverhisincome-taxpayments.He
listedthreeoftheachievementsthatIheardmostoftenintalkingwithother
Obamasupporters.
Thefirstisanegativeaccomplishment:avoidinganeconomiccatastrophe
evenworsethantheonetheUnitedStatesandtheworldhavebeenthrough.
JimWebb,whowasintheSenatewhentheBushadministrationwas
requestingthefirstroundofTARPbailoutfunds,saidthathecalled
economistshetrustedforadviceonwhattodo.Everyoneofthemsaid,
Youhavetodothisvoteforthefunds,hetoldme.Oneofthemtoldme,
Thesepeopleneedtobepunished,butfirstyouhavetokeepthesystem
fromgoingintocataclysmicdefault.
ThesecondiswhatDaschlecalledthedramaticimprovementinthe
Americanimageabroad.ThedailyreportsaboutAmericanproblems
aroundtheworld,thecrisesinU.S.relationswithPakistanandafewother
countries,theongoingworldwidebullsessionaboutwhethertheU.S.isin
declineallofthesethingsmaskthebroadanddramaticimprovementin
AmericassoftpowerandinternationalstandingduringObamastime.For
instance:accordingtothePewGlobalAttitudesProject,in2008thepositive
viewoftheUnitedStatesinGermanywas31percent,inFranceitwas42
percent,andinJapanitwas50percent.Lastyear,itwas62percentin
Germany,75percentinFrance,and85percentinJapan(thedramatic
improvementinJapanwaspartlyinresponsetoU.S.aidafterthe
earthquake,tsunami,andnuclearaccidentearlyintheyear).Thesechanges
canmakearealdifferenceforAmericanidealsandinterests,butitishardto
mentiontheminAmericanpoliticaldebateswithoutsoundingFrench.
Andfinally,accordingtoDaschle,thehealth-carebillthatpassedso
narrowlyandissocontroversialwill,especiallyifObamaisreelected,rank
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withMedicareinthelistoflegislativeandsocialachievementsby
Democraticpresidents.Yes,havinghelpedplanthebill,Daschleisbiased
asisLawrenceSummers,whoarguesthatbecauseofthehealth-careplan,
thehistoricdebatewillbewhethertheaccomplishmentsofhisfirsttwo
yearsarethemostsubstantialsinceLyndonJohnsonsin196566,orthe
mostsubstantialsinceFDRsin193334.
OtherpartygrandeesIspokewith,includingGaryHartandWalterMondale,
whohadfoughtforthenominationthatMondalewonin1984,andMichael
Dukakis,whowonthenominationin1988,emphasizedhowmuchObama
hadaccomplishedgiventheeconomicholehehadtodigoutofandthe
Republicanspoliticalstrategyofsimplytryingtothwarthim.Eachhad
critiquesandsuggestionsonthemargin.Dukakisthoughttherecouldand
shouldhavebeenastrongeremphasisonpublic-servicejobsdirecthiring
ofteachers,public-healthworkers,roadbuildersaspartofaninitial
stimulusprogram.InalltheotherrecessionsthatIremember,publicservicejobswereanimportantcomponentoffightingunemployment,he
said.Ibelieveingivingpeopleunemploymentchecksforhalfayearoreven
ayearandhelpinginthecourseoftheirjobsearchandafterthat,ifthere
simplyarenotalotofjobsoutthere,youtakethechecksandturntheminto
jobs.But,fortheRepublicansthesedays,public-servicejobsareBolshevik
policyaslight(butonlyslight)overstatementoftherealRepublican
oppositiontodirectjobcreationthroughpublicprojects.Mondalewished
thatObamahadbeentougheronthebanksandhadstartedcampaigning
earlieragainsttheRepublicanstrategyofstonewallinghishealth-care
proposals.HartregrettedthatObamahadnottriedhardertotransformthe
ColdWarmilitarystructureandcontainthedefensebudgetareasofHarts
expertisestartingwithhisdefensereformcaucusinthe1980sormoved
morequicklytowarddisengagementfromIraqandAfghanistan.Iwouldadd
myamazementattheadministrationslackadaisicalapproachtothecrucial
businessofstaffingthegovernment.Threeyearsin,Obamahadleftmore
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vacanciesonthefederalbench,andusedhisrecess-appointmentpowerfar
lessoften,thananyofhisrecentpredecessors.Partofthisreflected
Republicandeterminationtoblockhisnominations;part,Obamasdecision
nottofight.
Test Cases
SowherecanObamaclaimtohaveshownmasteryofthejob?Inforeign
policy,whereapresidentcancarryouthisownstrategy,hehasshownthat
heactuallyhasastrategytoexecute.Andinmanagementofthedomestic
economy,hehasshownincreasingcommandofthetoolsofoffice,inways
surprisinglyprefiguredbyhistemperamentalopposite,HarryTruman.
Likeanypresident,Obamahashadhisshareofembarrassmentsand
failuresinforeignpolicy.U.S.relationswithIsraelarenearoneoftheir
periodiclowsandperhapsworsethanthat,withmanypeopleinIsrael
feelingthattheycanttrustObama,andmuchoftherestoftheworld
viewinghimashavingbeenoutmaneuveredbyNetanyahu.Relationswith
Pakistanareworse;thesituationinAfghanistanhasbeencontainedrather
thansolved;andthenthereisIran.Butthroughhisfirstthreeyearsinoffice,
Obamasufferednomajorinternationaldisastersorsetbacks,and
meanwhilemanagedsurprisingprogressonmanyfrontsatonce.Ifyouwere
makingalistofwhathasgoneright,ornotgoneasbadlywrongasitcould
haveonhiswatch,itwouldinclude:

containingwhatcouldhavebeenanopen-endedcommitmentin
Iraq;
walkingatightropeinAfghanistan:avoidingcriticismfromthe
militaryfordoingtoolittlewhilealsopreparingapathfor
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withdrawal;
managingthetroubledrelationshipwithPakistanincludingin
theaftermathoftheOsamabinLadenraid;
encouragingtheArabSpringeventsingeneral,withoutgetting
miredinthedetailsofanyofthem;
supportingtheEuropeansduringtheirdebtcrisis,whilekeeping
theUnitedStatessomewhatinsulatedfromit;and
puttingU.S.relationswithChinaonabetterfootingthaninmany
years,ataskthathastobeamongtheverymostimportantforany
presidentoftheearly21stcentury.

ThislastitemisoneIwatchedunfoldfromthebeginningofthis
administration,whenIwasstillbasedinBeijing.MuchlikeNixonsapproach
toChina,Ithinkitwilleventuallybestudiedforitsskillfulcombinationof
hardandsoftpower,incentivesandthreats,urgencyandpatience,plus
deliberateandeffectivemisdirection.Thedetailsaresignificant:
AsObamabeganhisterm,officialChinawasgrowingsmugandprideful.
ThetriumphantBeijingOlympicswerejustbehindit;theAmericanfinancial
collapsesymbolizedthedeclineofasuperpowerandtheworldsrelianceon
itsnewpaymasters,theChinese.BecauseofChinasheavyrelianceon
exports,itslaborforcewashitharderbytheworldwidecollapseofdemand
thanthatofanyothermajoreconomy,buttheChinesepulledthemselves
outfarmorerapidly.AmericansandEuropeansditheredaboutapplying
stimulus;theChinesewentaheadandappliedit,creatingjobsformany
millionsofpeopleandexpandingthecountrysphysicalinfrastructureinthe
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process.
BythetimeObamamadehisstatevisittoShanghaiandBeijing,in
November2009,thepressinbothcountriesandtherestoftheworldwas
primedtopresenthisusuallow-keydemeanorasservility.TheWashington
PostandTheNewYorkTimescontrastedObamassupposedhat-in-hand
mannerwiththebravadoofBillClinton,whohadmentionedtheTiananmen
SquareprotestswhilestandingnexttoPresidentJiangZemin.
YetevenasObamawaspolitelylisteningtolecturesaboutChinasnew
superiority,membersofhisadministrationwereexecutinganelaborate
pincermovementtoreestablishAmericaninfluence,realandperceived,
amongthegrowingeconomiesofAsia.Inpracticallyeveryformalstatement
byU.S.officials,fromPresidentObamatoSecretariesClinton,Geithner,and
Gates,U.S.representativeshammeredhomeasinglemessage.Themessage
wasthatAmericawelcomedratherthanfearedChinascontinuedrise.This
wasdirectedatawidespreadChinesesuspicion:thatAmericawouldtryto
thwartChinascontinueddevelopmentbecauseitviewedanyincreasein
Chineseinfluenceasaflat-outlossfortheUnitedStates.
ManyChineseofficialsremainedskeptical,butthereassurancessetthe
stageforthenextphaseoftheadministrationsmessage:wewelcomeyour
rise,butwedisagreeonthefollowingthingscensorship,currency,and
pollution,allmattersthatcouldbepresentedascontainableitemsfor
discussionratherthanasinherentlythreateningaspectsofChinasascent.
InthefewmonthsafterObamasvisittoChina,someChinesemilitaryand
diplomaticofficialsbeganbelievingtheirownadulatorypressclips.China
entereditsperiodofwhatwasbroadlydescribedasoverreach:challenging
theJapanese,SouthKorean,Vietnamese,andPhilippinenavieswith
expandedclaimsofcomingsupremacyintheSouthChinaSeaandthe
broaderPacific;antagonizingtradingpartnersfromRussiatoBurmato
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Australiawithmore-aggressivepracticesandclaims.Throughthisperiod,
theU.S.governmentwasstitchinguprelationswitheveryoneofthese
countries.Partofthemessagewasthatwithitsinevitableextractionfrom
themireofIraqandAfghanistan,theUnitedStatescouldreassertits
presenceinthefastest-growingeconomicregionoftheworld;theotherpart
wasthat,forallitsexcesses,theUnitedStateswasaneasierregionalpower
tolivewiththantheChinesewouldbe.
TwoyearsafterObamashumiliatingvisittoShanghaiandBeijing,U.S.
relationswithChinawereamixofcooperationandtension,astheyhadbeen
throughthepost-Nixonyears.ButAmericanrelationswithmostother
nationsintheregionwerebetterthansincebeforetheIraqWar.Inavisitto
Australialatein2011,ObamastartledtheChineseleadershipbutwon
complimentselsewherewiththeannouncementofanewpermanentU.S.
MarinepresenceinDarwin,onAustraliasnortherncoast.
ThestrategywasSunTzulikeinitspatientpursuitofanobjective:
reestablishingAmericanhardandsoftpowerwhilepresentingasmilingWe
welcomeyourrise!facetotheChinese.Itwasasdecisiveadiplomatic
victoryasanyoneislikelytosee,WalterRussellMead,ofBardCollege,
oftenacriticoftheadministration,wroteabouttheannouncementofthe
Australianbase.Inthefieldofforeignpolicy,thiswasacomingofageof
theObamaadministrationanditwasconceivedandexecutedaboutas
flawlesslyasthesethingsevercanbe.
Intherealmofforeignpolicy,BarackObamahaslearnedwhateverymodern
presidenteventuallydoes:despitethedangers,theemergencies,the
intractabledisagreements,andthelife-and-deathrisks,internationalaffairs
naturallyclaimanever-growingshareofapresidentsattentionand
enthusiasm.Ontheworldstage,herepresentsanentiremightycountry,not
oneperhaps-embattledparty.Internationalfiguresmaybefrustratingto
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dealwithKarzai,Ahmadinejad,Netanyahuintheirdifferentwaysbut
usuallytheycanttotallythwartorunderminehimthewayaMitch
McConnelloraRogerAilescan.Hecanthinkbigthoughtsandannouncebig
planswithoutseeingthemimmediatelypickedapartorridiculed.Andhecan
daretodevisealong-termstrategy,likeObamaswithChina,knowingthat
thetoolsforcarryingitoutinthemilitary,thediplomaticcorps,the
intelligenceagencies,andtherestofthenational-securityapparatusare
withinhislineofcommand.
Itisnowonderthatthenational-securitystateinallitsaspectshas
continuedtogrowthroughoutthedecadessincethebeginningofWorldWar
II.Defensebudgets,intelligenceandsurveillancenetworks,privatemilitary
contractors,irregularformsofwar:theseandotherexecutive-branchtools
ofinternationalpowerworklikearatchet.Somepresidentsrapidlyincrease
themintimesofemergency,asGeorgeW.Bushdidafterthe9/11attacks.
Nopresidentscalesthemback.Thustheimbalancecontinuestogrow
betweeninternationalefforts,whereapresidenthasanevergreaterarrayof
toolsandweapons,andthefrustratingdomesticarena.Despitehavingrun
onhisoppositiontotheIraqWarandoverseentheformalU.S.withdrawal
fromIraq,BarackObamahas,ifanything,expandedtherangeofexecutive
militarypower,fromhisunilateral(andmainlysuccessful)decisionto
interveneinLibyatohisexpansionofdroneattacks.
Thinkofthecontrastwithdomesticaffairs,especiallyeconomic
management.HerethechessmastercaseforObamaisthatthingsdidnot
deteriorateasdisastrouslyastheyeasilycouldhave.Thepawnargument
isthathewastoooftenthevictimofevents,acunningopposition,andhis
ownnavetandwillsurvivepolitically,ifhedoes,thanksmainlytothe
clumsinessandoverreachofhisRepublicanopposition.
ThestandardviewofObamasfailuresinthecloselyintertwineddomestic
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fieldsofeconomicmanagementandpoliticalstrategyinvolvesthisseriesof
mistakes,withcumulativelyworseningimpact:

Hisadministrationunderestimatedtheseverityoftheeconomic
crisisfromtheoutset,andtherefore
itproposedtoosmallanoffsettingresponse,whilepromisingtoo
quickarecovery;andmeanwhile
itcoddledthefinancierswhohadcreatedthecrisis,beingquick
tocovertheirlossesandveryslowtoimposeanyconditionsor
correctives;while
itwastedprecioushoneymoontimehumoringthe
congressionalcommitteesthatdickeredoveraproposedhealthcarebill;andthroughoutthistime
itnaivelyimaginedthatthecongressionalRepublicanswere
interestedmainlyincompromisesolutions,whichdispiritedthe
administrationsalliesandgaveObamaareputationforprizing
theappearanceofbeingreasonableovertheachievementofhis
economicgoals;andevenworse
itwasfatallyslowtorecognizetheRepublicanstrategyof
blockingitsappointmentsandfilibusteringbillsandevenwhenit
sawwhatwashappening,itenabledthatstrategy,byrefusingto
fightfornomineeswhoencounteredresistance(ElizabethWarren
beingonlythemostfamiliarnameonalonglist)andfailingto
fighttheroutineuseofthefilibuster,asitspredecessorshad.And
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asifallthiswerenotenough,aftertheroutinthe2010election
itself-destructivelyadoptedtheRepublicanclaimthatthefederal
deficitwasthemostimmediatethreattothecountry,eventhough
cuttingthebudgetinresponsetothatthreatwouldmakethereal
emergenciesofunemploymentandrecessionworse.And,finally
itcreatedadisasterthatnearlyconsumedit,bytrustingthenew
congressionalRepublicanmajority,nowthatithadwhatObama
calledtheresponsibilitytogovern,nottoriskashowdownover
raisingtheceilingoffederalborrowinglastyear.

Thelistcouldgoon,withitemselaboratingtwomainconcerns:thatthe
presidentandhisteamdidntknowwhattheyweregettinginto,andthatthey
werealwaysonemovebehindreal-timeeventsinthepoliticalcombatof
todaysWashington.
Whatisthepossiblecontrarycase?Someday,wemayknowhowthe
presidenthimselfmightanswerthatquestion.(TheWhiteHousedeclined
ourrepeatedrequestsforaninterview.)Hisreflectionsinpublichavetended
tobeanodynelamentsaboutthefailureofbipartisanspirit;hecantpossibly
believeitsthatinnocent.Butthosearoundhimmakethecasethatin
additiontobeingveryunlucky(inthecircumstancesheinherited)andvery
lucky(intheRepublicanfieldthatchosetorunagainsthim),Obamaalso
shapedhisluckbybeingshrewd,inthreesignificantways.First,accordingto
thisview,healwayskepthiseyeonwhatmatteredmost,namelyavoiding
anotherrecessionandcompromisedandbacktrackedonlywhen,inhis
assessment,thealternativewouldhavebeenagreatereconomicrisk.Next,
heabsorbedpummelingbyRepublicansnotsomuchbecausehewasweak
orunsuspectingasbecauseherecognizedproblemstheover-reaching
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oppositionwascreatingforitself,muchashehadduringthe2008primaries
(andmuchasBillClintonhadin1995).Andfinally,thatwhilelikeall
presidentshecameinunprepared,headjustedasfastasanyonecouldhave
expectedandwasincreasinglyincontrolofeventsastimewenton.
Obviously,thesedontadduptothehopesforasecondLincolnthatsomeof
hismostferventbackersheldfouryearsago.ButIthinktheyareplausible
analysesontheirownterms.
ThefirstcontentionthatfrombeginningtoendObamahaschosenthepath
hethoughtwouldminimizenewshockstotheeconomyaccordswith
normalpoliticallogic,sincetheworstthreattoasittingpresidentisexactly
thekindofslowdownObamahastriedtoavoid,withmixedresultsatbest
throughhisfirstthreeyears.Italsomakessenseofanotherwisedisparate
patternofdecisions,startingwithhisadministrationsapparentcoddlingof
WallStreetin2009.Thisearlyfailureofaccountabilityisthemainthemeof
RonSuskindsConfidenceMen,andvirtuallyeveryoneIspokewithsaidthat
itcreatedasubstantiveandsymbolicproblemtheadministrationhasnever
fullyrecoveredfrom.Substantive,becauseofthemoralhazardcreatedby
usingpublicmoneytoguaranteethebonusesandrepaythelossesofpeople
whohadbeensorecklesslydestructive.Symbolic,forallthereasonsthat
eventuallycametoaheadwithlastyearsOccupymovement.
Anofficialfamiliarwiththeadministrationseconomicpolicytoldme:The
recapitalizationofthebankswasagoodidea,andnecessary.Butwedidnot
putenoughconditionson[their]gettingthemoney.Ultimatelynotbeing
tougherwiththeguysthatgotthemoneyisthethingthatoverthrowsthe
governmenttwicein2008[inareactionagainstBushsTARPplan]and
againin2010.
Keepingthesystemgoingwastheguidelineduringtheearlydaysoffinancial
rescue,andagainlaterduringtheargumentovergovernmentshutdownsand
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theraisingofthedebtceiling.Duringtheinitialrescue,Obamasresponse
wasofcourseshapedbythetechnocratcirclethatguidedtheeffort.From
theirexperiencewithAsianandLatinAmericanfinancialpanicsduringthe
Clintonera,thelikesofSummers,Geithner,andOrszagunderstoodthat
theirtaskwasakintoemergency-roommedicine,orfirefighting.Theyhadto
containtheemergencyfirst,becauseotherwisetherewasnotellinghowdire
theconsequencescouldbe,andworryaboutanythingelselater.Larry,Tim,
Peterwhentheyheardaboutrestrictingbonusesorcompensation,they
wouldthink,Thesearepeoplescontracts,wecantchangetheircontracts,a
memberoftheexecutivebranchsaid.Butreallyitwastheideathatthe
problemwasenormous,theeconomyisinbigtrouble,dowewanttomake
enemieswhilewereputtingoutthefire?Usuallytheyoptedforwhatever
theythoughtwouldkeeptheeconomygoing.Thisringstrueaboutthe
moodinthemiddleofanemergency,andalsoabouttheculturaltonedeafnessthatcanaffectpeoplewhoallcomefromthesamerarefiedworld.
SotooduringtheshowdownswithCongressoverkeepingthegovernment
funded,orraisingthedebtceilingtopreventadefaultonTreasurynotes.
AftertheRepublicansgainedcontroloftheHouseinthe2010midterms,the
negotiatingteamontheadministrationsidewasheavyonClinton-era
veteranswhohadbeenthroughpreviousdealingswithaRepublican
Congress.GeneSperling,whosucceededSummersasheadoftheNational
EconomicCouncilandhadheldthesamejobduringtheClintonyears,and
JacobLew,whosucceededPeterOrszagattheOfficeofManagementand
BudgetandthenWilliamDaleyaschiefofstaff,haddealtwithSpeakerNewt
GingrichandhisnewRepublicanmajorityinthe1995budgetbattlethatled
toagovernmentshutdown.JasonFurman,nowSperlingsdeputyatthe
NEC,wasayoungstaffeconomistonClintonsCouncilofEconomic
Advisersataboutthesametime.
AstheytriedtoarrangebudgetagreementswithSpeakerJohnBoehnerand
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hisnewmajority,theyseemedtobethelastpeopleinWashingtonto
recognizehowdifferentthecircumstanceswere.The54newRepublican
representativeswhoarrivedwithNewtGingrichmainlyowedtheirpositions
tohim.Ortheythoughttheydid:GingrichsContractWithAmericahad
beentheunifiednationwideplatformfortheGOPsurgethatyear.WhenBill
Clintonsatdowntonegotiatewithhim,adealmadewithGingrichwasadeal
thatwouldstick.
ButtheObamateamgotclearerandclearersignalsfirstinbudget
negotiationsinthespring,theninvotesonthedebtceilinginthesummer,
andthenintheconfrontationoverthepayroll-taxholidayjustbefore
ChristmasthatBoehnerwasaleaderwithoutafollowing.The63
Republicanfreshmenowedhimnothing;manyhadrunagainstWashington
business-as-usualpracticesthatincludedtheGOPestablishment.TheTea
Partydidntwantadeal,AustanGoolsbeetoldme.Theworldunderstood
thatdefaultwascrazyandwoulddestroytheeconomy.Buthittingtheceiling
wouldforcebigpartsofthegovernmentoutofbusiness.Thatswhatthey
wanted.Theywerentbluffing.
IfkeepingtheeconomygrowingwassocentralforObama,whywasthe
initialstimulusonly$800billion?Thecaseisquitecompellingthatif
morefiscalandmonetaryexpansionhadbeendoneatthebeginning,things
wouldhavebeenbetter,LawrenceSummerstoldmelatelastyear.Thatis
myreadingoftheeconomicevidence.Myunderstandingofthejudgmentof
politicalexpertsisthatitwasntfeasibletodo.RahmEmanueltoldmethat
withinamonthofObamaselection,butstillanothermonthbeforehetook
office,therespectablerangeforhowmuchstimulusyouwouldneed
jumpedfrom$400billionto$800billion.Inretrospectitshouldhavebeen
largerbut,Emanuelsays,intheCongressandtheopinionpages,theline
betweenprudentandcrazyspendthriftwas$800billion.Adollarless,and
youwereastatesman.Adollarmore,youwereirresponsible.Thethree
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RepublicanswhovotedforthestimulusbillSusanCollinsandOlympia
SnoweofMaine,andabout-to-be-DemocratArlenSpecterofPennsylvania
allcomplainedthatitwasfartoolarge,asdidJimWebbandmanyother
Democrats.
Can Obama Play Truman?
Thesecond,relatedargumentisthatObamaspassive,evenwithdrawnseemingstanceastheonlyadultintheroomhaspositionedhimbetterfor
reelectionandthusforhisbestchancetolockinthegainshehasmade
thanamoredirectlycombativeapproachwouldhave.NotuntilObama
writeshispost-presidentialsequeltoDreamsFromMyFather,andperhaps
noteventhen,willweknowallthesourcesofhisseeminghorrorofpartisan
conflict.Hisabove-the-frayposewascertainlythekeytohisriseinthefirst
place.IwasinthearenainBostonwhenhedeclaredinhis2004convention
speech,TheresnotaliberalAmericaandaconservativeAmerica;theres
theUnitedStatesofAmerica.Thehouseeruptedincheers,andAmericas
firstblackpresidentcouldnothavegoneontowinhadhestruckamore
stridentordivisivetone.
Butlineslikethatdescribedanideal,notanoperationalreality,andonce
Obamaenteredoffice,hisopponentsdidntbuythem.LatelastyearJohn
Barrasso,aRepublicansenatorfromWyoming,explainedtomethathis
colleagueswouldhavebeenonlytoowillingtoworkwithObama,ifhehad
not,inBarrassosview,frozenusoutbylisteningonlytoNancyPelosiand
theextreme-liberalbase.
IfObamareallythoughtthatAmericahadmovedpastpartisandivision,then
hewastooinnocentforthejob.Butpartofpoliticalleadershipisbeingable
toprojectapositiveidealismthatyouknowisatoddswiththerealworld.I
amreadytobelievethatObamaadoptedthisfaux-harmonioustone,apart
fromitsbeinghisnaturalregister,asawaytowintheelection,andasa
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markerforwhathehopedAmericacouldbecome,andcruciallythatonce
inoffice,hemaintaineditasasoundpositionforhimselfashemoved
towardreelection.Latelastyear,healsoapplieditwithchess-masterskill
againstthecongressionalRepublicans,indaringthemtoletthewidely
popularpayroll-taxcutexpireatthestartofanelectionyear.Theybacked
off,andwhenthedustsettled,theRepublicansfoundthemselvesatan
unaccustomedpoliticaldisadvantage.Havingsecuredanagreementon
governmentfundingfortherestoftheyear,Obamahadtakenoneoftheir
favoritetools,thethreatofagovernmentshutdown,outoftheirhands
throughthecampaignseason.Andafterthreeyearsofseemingtoshyfrom
partisanrhetoric,hebeganlinkingtheslateofGOPpresidential
contenderstotheTeaPartydominatedRepublicanCongress,whose
approvalratingswerefarworsethanhisown.
ThepayoffforObamainastrategyofremainingMr.Reasonableisthe
prospectofoccupyingtheacceptablecenter,astheTeaPartyspinsthe
RepublicanPartyofftotheextreme.TheriskisthateveniftheRepublicans
makethemselvesunpopularthroughfilibusterandobstruction,theymake
Obamalookweakandthatsworse.
Obamasfuture,andhiseffectiveness,dependonthatbalance,whoseresults
wewillseethisyear.Myimpressionfromrecentevidenceisthathehas
foundhisfooting,andhascometounderstandhowtousetheconstrained
butstillrealpowersofapresidentfacingcongressionaloppositionjustin
time.ThemostenlighteningdocumentIfoundforassessingObamasrecent
movesturnsouttobe66yearsold.
ThisisamemorandumthatJamesH.RoweJr.,aHarvard-trainedlawyer
whohadbeenOliverWendellHolmesslastlawclerkontheSupremeCourt
andafterWorldWarIIwasayoungofficialattheBureauoftheBudget,
wrotetoPresidentHarryTrumansoonafterthemidtermelectionsof1946.
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Inthatelection,theRepublicansgained55seatsintheHouseand12inthe
Senate,totakecontrolofbothhousesforthefirsttimesincebeforetheNew
Deal.Trumanwasifanythinglessprepared,formoreoverwhelming
responsibilities,thanObamawas.Threemonthsafterheunexpectedly
becamepresidentuponFranklinRooseveltsdeath,hehadtodecideonthe
useofatomicweaponswhoseveryexistenceFDRhadneverlethimknow
about.Afterthatcamemanagementofpost-warEuropeandAsia.Butthe
fundamentalsofTrumanspoliticalsituation,asdescribedinRowesmemo,
areamazinglysimilartothoseObamanowfaces.
RowetellsTrumanthat,withtheRepublicanvictory,heshouldbeprepared
forobstructionandnonstoppartisanstalemate,notbecauseofstrategic
mistakesonhissidebutbecausethisisthebasicnatureoftheAmerican
system.AnyonewhothinksthatAmericanpoliticsismoreembattledthan
ever,asIamoftentemptedto,shouldreadthismemo(andSamuel
Popkinsexegesisofit,inTheCandidate).
RowepointsoutthatwhenanopposingpartyholdsCongress,itwillalways
viewweakeningthepresidentasitsparamountgoal.Itwilllaunchasmany
congressionalinvestigationsaspossible,inhopesoffindingscandalinan
administrationoratleastdistractingitsappointees.Itwillblocknominations
andtrytofrustrateapresidentsattemptstokeeptheexecutivebranch
operational.Itsleaderswilldefinecompromiseasthepresidents
acceptingalloftheirdemandsandabandoninghisown.Iftheleadersof
Congressdofinallystrikeadealwiththeadministration,apresidentshould
bewary.Thesimplefactaboutmostdealswithacongressional
opposition,hewrites,isthattheyjustwontworkundertheAmericantwopartysystem:

Forcooperationisaone-waystreet.ThePresidentcan
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disciplinetheExecutiveBranchsufficientlybyexercisinghisright
tohireandfire;hecanforceittocooperate.TheRepublican
leadersmayagreetohaveco-equalresponsibilityforexecutingthe
agreementsreachedonpolicybuttheydonothaveco-equalpower
todeliver[Congress]hasnoparliamentarydisciplinefora
verysimplereasonCongressmenarenotrepresentativesofall
thepeople;theyrepresentonlytheirowndistrictsorsectionsand
theparticularpressuregroupswithinthosesectionswhicharevital
tothem.NoCongressionalleadercancommithispartybecause
nocommitmentsarebindingupontheMembersexceptthosethey
maypersonallymaketotheirownsections.

Negativediscipline,ofthekindthatMitchMcConnellhasexercisedtokeep
SenateRepublicansvotingasablocagainstObamasproposals,iseasierto
maintainthanpositivediscipline,ofthekindNewtGingrichwielded
temporarilyoverhisRepublicanmajority.Thatistheexception.Apresident
shouldfirstofallaccepttheinevitabilitythatformalcooperationis
unworkable,Roweconcludes.Despitehissinceredesiretocooperate,he
shouldaccepttheverdictofthepoliticians,ofhistory,andofthe
disinterestedstudentsofgovernment.
AndsoRoweoffershisrecommendation.Withlegislativeambitions
blocked,withmanyappointmentslefttolanguish,withrear-guardbattles
underwaytoupholdvetoesandfendoffinvestigation,apresidentshould
resorttotheonlytoolthatisuniquelyhis:theabilitytospeaktoallofthe
public.Heshouldpreparethegroundbysoundingreasonableand
conciliatory,inlightofanunquenchableifunrealisticbeliefthatparties
shouldbeabletogetalong.(Publicdemandforbipartisancooperationwill
probablycontinue.Therealpolitikofthesituationrequiresthattherebe
somegesturestowardcooperation.)Then,withhisbonafidesestablished,
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thepresidentcanmoveintothenextelection,makingaclearcaseforhis
side.
IfBarackObamalosesthisfall,hewillforeverseemadisappointment:a
symbolicallyimportantbutaccidentalfigurewhoraisedhopeshecouldnot
fulfillandmetdifficultieshedidnotknowhowtosurmount.Hemeantto
showtheunityofAmericabutonlyunderscoreditsdivision.Asacandidate,
hesymbolizedtransformation;inoffice,heappliedincrementalismand
demonstratedthelimitsofchange.Hismostimportantachievement,
helpingforestallasecondGreatDepression,willbetakenforgrantedor
discountedinthedismayabouttheeconomicproblemshedidnotsolve.His
mainlegislativeaccomplishment,thehealth-carebill,maywellbe
overturned;hiseffectonAmericasinternationalstandingwillpass;histalk
aboutbridgingthepartisandividewillseemonemoresignofhisfatal
navet.Ifheisreelected,hewillhaveachancetosolidifywhathehas
accomplishedand,moreimportant,buildonwhathehaslearned.Allofthis
isadditionalmotivation,asifheneededany,forhimtodriveforreelection;
noneofitmakeshimanymorepalatabletothosewhoopposehimandhis
goals.
Andforthosewhosupportedhimthefirsttime,asIdid?Tome,the
evidencesuggeststhatgivenasecondterm,hewouldhaveabetterchanceof
becomingthefiguresomanypeopleimagined.
>

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'Where'sMyFlyingCar?'
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Obama, Explained - The Atlantic

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

JAMES FALLOWS is a national correspondent for The Atlantic and has written for the
magazine since the late 1970s. He has reported extensively from outside the United
States and once worked as President Carter's chief speechwriter. His latest book is
China Airborne.
Twitter

Email

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