BLOOMBERG POLITICS/DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY

401 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
402 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

Study #2128
October 16-19, 2015
2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Ask only of likely Democratic caucusgoers; Republican caucusgoers, skip to Republican candidate favorability.
Now, Im going to mention some prominent Democrats, including [Before Aug-15: people talked about as possible]
candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable,
mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you dont know enough about the person to answer,
just say so. (Record dont know as not sure. Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Fav

Unf

7*

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Barack Obama, president of the United

States

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

90

51

39

88
91
89
86

9
7
9
13

43
44
49
49

45
47
40
37

5
5
6
5

4
2
3
8

2
2
2
1

Joe Biden, vice president of the United

States

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

85

10

36

49

14
20
20
34

29
22
25
15

51
54
53
45

8
14
14
19

6
6
6
15

7
4
2
6

Lincoln Chafee, former governor of

Rhode Island

Oct-15
Aug-15

14

30*

12

20

11

56

80

Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

85

14

39

46

77
88
86*
84
76

19
10
12*
15
19

27
30
39
46
43

50
58
46
38
33

10
6
7
7
8

9
4
6
8
11

4
2
2
1
5

Oct-15

10

12

78

35

14

39

8
4
2
2

25
17
11
11

5
5
6
7

3
3
3
2

60
72
78
78

Larry Lessig, a Harvard law professor

79*
76
78
60
9

11*

Martin OMalley, former governor of

Maryland

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

43

Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from

Vermont

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

82

10*

42

40

73
57
47
37
29

8
4
12
12
13

39
27
23
17
10

34
30
24
20
19

4
3
8
8
8

4
1
4
4
5

19
39
41
51
58

Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from

Virginia

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

22

31

19

21

10

47

12
9*
11
12

4
3
3
1

16
19
18
15

10
7
8
8

2
3
3
4

68
69
68
72

33
20*
13
13

19*
22
21
16

17

7*
8
9
9

*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are
the best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the
very/mostly favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Larry Lessig
Martin OMalley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent
says the word uncommitted.)
Not sure
No first choice

Q.4a
First Choice

Q.4b
Second Choice

Combined

12
42
2
37
1

23
1
31
1
6
23
1

35
1
73
1
8
60
2

3
3

3
7
6

First choice with

Biden reallocated

n/a
1
48
2
41
1
3
4

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Joe Biden

Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton

Larry Lessig
Martin OMalley

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

says the word uncommitted.)

Not sure

No first choice

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

First

Second

Combined

12

23

35

14
n/a
8
9

24
n/a
31
26

38
n/a
39
35

1
-

1
2

42

31

73

37
50
57
56

23
18
15
15

60
68
72
71

1
6

1
8

3
2
2
1

8
10
3
3

11
12
5
4

37

23

60

30
24
16
5

20
20
13
6

50
44
29
11

2
n/a
2
3

1
n/a
5
6

3
n/a
7
9

6
7
6
4

3
8
6
3

8
16
8
6

6
19
13
8

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

6
13
23
14
10

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record No first
choice in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Biden removed
and second
choice
reallocated

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton

Larry Lessig
Martin OMalley

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

Uncommitted (VOLonly if respondent

says the word uncommitted.)

Not sure

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

1
1
-

48
43
50
62
63

2
5
2
3
1

41
35
24
18
5

1
2
n/a
3
3

3
6
7
6
5

4
8
16
8
7

In Jan-15, Elizabeth Warren received 16% with Biden reallocated.

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is
made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those
who said No first choice have been coded as Could still be persuaded.)
All Dem CGs Clinton
Sanders
n=402
n=176
n=138
4.9% pts 7.4% pts 8.4% pts

42
58
-

46
54
-

46
53
1

Mind is made up
Could still be persuaded
Not sure

(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in first or second choice questions.) Im going to mention
the Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever
support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names.
Use same rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice, code 1st or 2nd choice
and do not ask.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Ever

Never

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

54

10

34

46
37

12
15

4
10

38
39

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

25

54

20

31
n/a

27
n/a

40
n/a

1
n/a

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

18

73

26
16

13
9

1
3

60
72

Larry Lessig

Oct-15

19

48

32

Martin OMalley

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

50

28

14

38
34

21
13

30
48

11
6

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

27

10

59

30
23

12
18

8
30

50
29

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

32

48

18

36
32

26
13

34
47

3
7

Joe Biden

Lincoln Chafee

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

For each of the following potential candidate concerns, please tell me if this is something that makes you less
supportive of the person or does not bother you. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Hillary Clinton has not been forthcoming about her home email
server
Joe Biden is taking a long time to decide if he is going to run for
president
Bernie Sanders describes himself as a democratic socialist
Hillary Clinton has delayed or flip-flopped on key decisions
Bernie Sanders has voted against waiting periods and background
checks for gun buyers

Less
supportive

Does not
bother

Not
Sure

18

81

27
17
34

72
81
64

1
2
2

60

39

Which do you think is the bigger risk for the future of the country?
Dem CG

43
41
16

To elect a president who has not held office so does not know the processes and
procedures of governing
To elect the same sort of person who has served as president for many decades who will
likely continue to do things the way they have been done with the same effect
Not sure

Based just on what you happen to know at this point, do you think the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade
agreement among the United States and 11 Pacific Rim nations will be good or bad for Iowa?
REP CG

27
30
42

Dem CG

39
27
34

Good for Iowa

Bad for Iowa
Not sure

Do you think the congressional investigations into Benghazi are or are not worth the time and money?
REP CG

75
19
6

Dem CG

14
79
6

Worth the time and money

Not worth the time and money
Not sure

Compared to:
Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points

August 23-26, 2015

2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
June 19-22, 2015
1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

May 25-29, 2015

4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.9 percentage points for each party

January 26-29, 2015

3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: 4.8 percentage points for each party

October 1-7, 2014

3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

Methodology
Oct 22 (Bloomberg) The Iowa Poll, conducted October 16-19 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines
Register by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 401 registered Iowa voters who
say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they
definitely or probably will attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 2,771 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of states voter registration
list by telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in
the voter registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 402 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 401 likely Republican caucus
attendees each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this
survey were repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings
would not vary from the percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results
based on smaller samples of respondentssuch as by gender or agehave a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is
prohibited.