Bus.

140

Case # 2 Golden Arrow Electronics (GAE)

Spring 2015

Fall, 2009
Due date: Tuesday, April 28, 2015
Golden Arrow Electronics (GAE) is a relatively new manufacturing company that is
growing rapidly. Among their products is a personal game device which is very popular
due to a couple of unique features setting it apart from the competition. They currently
sell this product to a number of computer stores, electronic supply outlets and major
chain stores. They also sell a more basic model which has experienced slower growth.
Two factors have led to the company not employing any formal forecasting techniques.
One of these is the relative short existence of the company, the other is the rapid growth
has focused their attention on building capacity. The President of the company, Mr. Anup
Kumar, has recognized the need for a more formal forecasting process as the company
matures. He has stated the objective of employing forecasting that is as simple as
possible and yet still meets the needs of their business.
Mr. Kumar wants to use the start of the new fiscal year to initiate a formal forecasting
system. He has decided to focus on the two game models which comprise most of their
volume. With no existing expertise in demand forecasting he has turned to a small
consulting firm to recommend appropriate forecasting techniques, prepare a forecast for
the next four weeks, and provide advice and training to an identified GAE employee in
the Operations organization. Ms. Nancy Morgan has exhibited an interest in statistical
applications and has taken some courses in college which will serve as a foundation for
taking on this new responsibility. Mr. Kumar has also asked other staff members to assist
in developing the forecasts.
Ms. Grace Ngo, Vice President of Marketing, has been able to provide external demand
for the two products for the past fifteen weeks and has also supplied data for products
used for demonstration and promotional purposes (see Table 1 below). Mr. Manuel
Cabrera, Vice President of Operations has established data for internal demand for the
two products (see Table 2 below).
As the consultant assigned to this project you are expected to perform the following
tasks:
1. Identify possible demand forecasting techniques for the two products,
2. Recommend the most appropriate technique for each product,
3. Develop a weekly demand forecast for the two products for the next four weeks,
4. Explain any patterns and any extraordinary items in the demand data,
5. Explore appropriate measures of forecast error and forecast control tools,
6. Suggest any ideas which might help Ms. Morgan quickly learn the basics of
forecasting.

Bus. 140

Case # 2 Golden Arrow Electronics (GAE)

Spring 2015

Fall, 2009
Table 1. Sales and Marketing Demand (in thousands, forecast by Marketing)
WEE
K

PRODUCT 1
SALES

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

25.2
27.0
28.5
30.0
32.0
33.5
35.0
38.5
62.0*
41.0
42.5
43.5
46.0
48.0
50.5

PRODUCT 1
DEMO/PROM
O
2
1
1
1
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
3
2
2
3

PRODUCT 2
SALES
8.0
7.6
8.2
9.2
8.4
8.2
8.2
9.4
8.4
8.6
8.4
9.8
8.6
8.8
8.8

PRODUCT 2
DEMO/PROM
O
.2
.1
.3
.4
.2
.2
.3
.4
.3
.3
.4
.5
.3
.2
.4

* Includes major customer order due to distribution warehouse fire [HINT: Demand
for this period cannot be omitted and must be adjusted to represent a normal
demand.]
Table 2. Internal Demand (in thousands, forecast by Operation) [HINT: Dont forget
the difference between sales and demand.]
WEE
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13

PRODUCT 1
USAGE
.3
.3
.4
.2
.3
.4
.3
.5
.5
.4
.4
.3
.4

PRODUCT 2
USAGE
.2
.1
.2
.1
.2
.1
.2
.2
.1
.2
.1
.2
.2

Bus. 140

Case # 2 Golden Arrow Electronics (GAE)

Fall, 2009

14
15

.5
.4

.3
.1

Spring 2015

Bus. 140

Case # 2 Golden Arrow Electronics (GAE)

Spring 2015

Fall, 2009
Instructions:
Submit both a hard copy written case to the instructor and a digital copy of the narrative
portion of the case to turnitin.com. A turnitin.com class ID and password have been
given in class.
The case study should follow general instructions for case studies as found in the course
syllabus (green sheet) and as discussed in class. Be sure to address the six tasks above
in the narrative part of your paper, not as discrete questions and answers (remember this
is a consulting report). Show data, all calculations, and relevant charts and diagrams as
part of your paper (either in the analysis or as appendices).
The paper must have the following components in this sequence:
Evaluation form with student name and section number (found right after
these instructions)
Cover page (minimum content: case name, student name, course number
(Business 140), course section number, academic term or date)
Table of contents (paper sections and page number where each section starts
Multi-section narrative content
Introduction (or background, situation summary, etc.
Two or more sections representing analysis, conclusions, recommendations
Data, calculations, charts, and diagrams (either in the main part of the
narrative or as an appendix or appendices)
Conclusion (one or two paragraph summary)
Bibliography (all works researched during case solution development)
Use footnotes, not endnotes or embedded reference notes.
Dont waste time researching the company Golden Arrow Electronics. Many, if not
most, cases use fictitious names. Do your research before you write the paper!
Write from the viewpoint of a reasonably experienced consultant, but one who still cites
authorities with direct quotations and/or references to principles, facts, opinions, theories,
etc. As such a consultant, write in the first person plural (we), NOT in the first person
singular (I) when referring to your findings, opinions, recommendations, etc.

**********************************************************************
Enter your name and course section number on the evaluation form on the next
page and include it in your paper as the first page!

Bus. 140

Case # 2 Golden Arrow Electronics (GAE)

Spring 2015

Fall, 2009
Evaluation Form
Business 140
Spring 2015

Student Name: ______________________

Section Number: __________

Evaluation Form: Case # 2

Golden Arrow Electronics (GAE)

Minus Points

Minus Points

STRUCTURE

CONTENT & PENALTIES

Cover page
Missing
Incomplete
Table of contents
Missing
No section headings
No page numbers
Paper narrative
No section headings
No page numbers
No introductory section
No conclusion section
No reference foot notes or format
No page reference in notes
Bibliography
Missing
Insufficient references
Insufficient non-Internet references
Format of entries

Content
Forecast techniques and tools
Forecast calculations
Measures of forecast error
Control tools
Insufficient diagrams/charts
Insufficient narrative discussion
Quality: narrative discussion
Organization of narrative
Writing style
Extent of research
Penalties
___
_
___
_

Paper too short

Paper late
Missing evaluation form
Data not included
Commonality of work
Turnitin.com score