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ESCUELA DE POSTGRADO
Maestra en Finanzas
VALORACIN DE EMPRESAS
Enrique Oliveros
AGENDA DEL DA
Introduccin
Recuperacin de clases
Control de Lectura No
No. 2
INTRODUCCIN
Lecturas para Control No. 2 (03(03-11
11--08):
Investment Valuation, Aswath Damodaran, 1st edition,
John Wiley & Sons, USA, 1996, Chapter 10, pp. 191-218
(DIVIDEND DISCOUNT MODEL)
Investment Valuation, Aswath Damodaran, 1st edition,
John Wiley & Sons, USA, 1996, Chapter 11, pp. 219-236
(FREE CASH FLOW TO EQUITY DISCOUNT MODEL)
Investment Valuation, Aswath Damodaran, 1st edition,
John Wiley & Sons, USA, 1996, Chapter 13, pp. 267-290
(SPECIAL CASES IN DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW
VALUATION)
Valuation, McKinsey & Company Inc., Tom Copeland,
Tim Koller & Jack Murrin, 3rd edition, John Wiley & Sons,
USA, 2000, Chapter 19, pp. 373-393 VALUATION IN
EMERGING MARKETS)
ENFOQUES DE VALORACIN
Dos metodologas principales:
principales:
Valoracin de Flujos de Caja Descontados (FCD)
Valoracin de la Empresa o Firma (Entity
(Entity DCF Model)
Model)
Valoracin del Patrimonio
Equity Cash Flow (Flujo de Caja Libre al Accionista)
Dividendos Descontados
Valoracin Relativa
Cotizadas Comparables
Transacciones Comparables
Para FCFE
FCFE::
Utilidad Neta + Depreciacin Capex - Capital de
Trabajo Pagos de Principal Deuda + Nueva Deuda
UtilidadNeta
1,533.00
Capex
1,746.00
p
Depreciacion
1,134.00
,
CambioKdW
477.00
RatioD/C()
23.83%
Ut.Neta
1,533.00
(1)*(CapexDep)
466.16
(1)*(CambioKdW)
363.33
FCLA(DivPotenciales)
703.51
Dividendos
345.00
P0 = FCFE1
r - gn
Similar a modelo de Gordon:
Crecimiento similar al de la economa del pas
Capex no es muy superior a Depreciacin
Riesgo promedio (Beta cercano a 1)
n1
FCFEt / (1+r) t +
n2
10
Terminal Year
Net Income
$110.00
$121.00
$133.10
$146.41
$161.05
$167.49
- (CapEx-Depreciation)
$27.50
$30.25
$33.28
$36.60
$40.26
$69.36
$5.00
$5.50
$6.05
$6.66
$7.32
$3.22
$11.00
$12.10
$13.31
$14.64
$16.11
$16.75
$88.50
$97.35
$107.09
$117.79
$129.57
$111.66
PV of FCFE
$81.19
$81.94
$82.69
$83.45
$84.21
,
$1,451.45
g = 4%
COK = 9%
VP= 1,864.93
11
13.625%
10.000%
50.000%
FCLA
Int.(1tx)
50.00 40.00
60.00 40.00
68.00 40.00
76.20 40.00
83.49 40.00
1,603.00
Equity=
Deuda=
FCF
90.00
100.00
108.00
116.20
123.49
2,363.01
1,073.00
800.00
13.625%
C.Deuda
10.00%
TasaImpositiva
50.00%
C.Deudadspestx
5.00%
Equity
1,073.00
Deuda
800.00
WACC
9.94%
12
FCLA
VAFCLA
FCF
VAFCF
50.00
44.00
90.00
81.86
60.00
46.47
100.00
82.73
68.00
46.35
108.00
81.27
76.20
45.72
116.20
79.54
83.49
44.08
123.49
76.88
V.Terminal
1,603.00
846.38
2,363.01
1,471.18
FCF
1,873.47
FCFE
1,073.01
Deuda
800.00
Equity
1,073.47
DPSt
(1 + r)
13
DPSt
(r-g)
Modelo de Dscto.
Dscto. de Dividendos de dos Fases:
Fases:
P0 =
DPSt +
Pn
(1 + r)
(1 + r)
Pn = DPSn+1
rn - g n
14
FaseEstable
1a5
Despusdel5
Duracion(aos)
ROE
16.00%
8.35%
Payoutratio
48.65%
52.10%
g
Retentionratio
Beta
8.20%
4.00%
51.35%
47.90%
0 95
0.95
1 00
1.00
RiskFree
4.35%
4.35%
PrimaRV
4.00%
4.00%
COK
8.15%
8.35%
EPS
1.85
DPS
0.90
FaseAltoCrec.
VTerminal
Ao
EPS
2.00
DPS
0.97
VADPS
0.90
2.17
1.05
0.90
2.34
1.14
0.90
2.54
1.23
0.90
2.74
1.33
0.90
2.85
1.49
34.17
23.10
27.60
15
DPS0(1 + g)
1- (1 + g)
1
(1 + r)
P0=
DPS n+1
n
(rn - g0) (1 + r)
(r - g)
Po =
DPS0(1 + gn)
(r - gn)
16
P0 =
EPS0(1 + ga)
x
t
(1 + r)
II a
DPSt
t
(1 + r)
EPSn2(1 + gn) x II n
n
(r - gn)
(1 + r)
17
Periodo
1
2005E
42,529
94%
39,977
660
2
2006E
45,909
92%
42,236
667
3
2007E
50,016
92%
46,015
673
4
2008E
54,477
92%
50,118
680
5
2009E
59,302
93%
55,151
687
6
2010E
64,540
93%
60,022
694
7
2011E
70,227
93%
65,311
701
8
2012E
76,401
93%
71,053
708
2.0%
183
0.66 Media de betas de bancos chilenos cotizados - salvo B. Estado Chile y Bhif - y a dos aos con observaciones semanales
4.50% Fuente: SCH Investment
4.84% US long-term treasury
1.20% Spread de la deuda pblica chilena en dlares sobre los treasuries a 10 aos
Ke = Rf + Beta x (Rm-Rf) + Country Risk
2005E
2006E
2007E
2008E
2009E
2010E
2011E
2012E
Valoracin
Dividendos Nominales
Capital necesario para cumplir ratio BIS en 2004E
Valor Residual
Cash Flow Ajustado Pesos
Cash Flow Ajustado Dlares
Cash Flow Ajustado Dlares Descontado
0
0
0
0
39,977
39,977
61
56
42,236
42,236
63
53
46,015
46,015
68
53
50,118
50,118
74
52
55,151
55,151
80
52
60,022
60,022
87
52
65,311
71,053
65,311
93
51
1,033,861
1,104,913
1,561
783
Discount Rate
Growth Rate
Equity Value US$
Valor Libros US$ Patrimonio
Plusvalia
9.01%
2.0%
1,152
183
969
18
Terminal Year
Net Income
$110.00
$121.00
$133.1 0
$146.4 1
$161.05
$167.49
- (CapEx-Depreciation)
$27.50
$30.25
$33.28
$36.60
$40.26
$69.36
$5.0 0
$5.5 0
$6.05
$6.66
$7.32
$3.22
$11.00
$12.10
$13.31
$14.64
$16.11
$16.75
$111.66
$88.50
$97.35
$107.0 9
$117.7 9
$129.57
Dividends
$33.00
$36.30
$39.93
$43.92
$48.32
PV of FCFE
$81.19
$81.94
$82.69
$83.45
$84.21
PV of Dividends
$30.28
$30.55
$30.83
$31.12
$31.40
$55.50
$120.44
$196.0 2
$283.6 1
$384.72
$384.72
19
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