This task has been updated (14 June 2013) to reflect the standard.

Linear
transformations of continuous random variables have been removed from the
curriculum and so are no longer in the standard.
Student work exemplars were completed before this update and have not been
amended.

SAMPLE PAPER

Level 3 Mathematics and Statistics

(Statistics)
91586 (3.14): Apply probability distributions in solving
problems
Credits: Four

Check that you have completed ALL parts of the box at the top of this page.
You should answer ALL parts of ALL questions in this booklet.
If you need more room for any answer, use the space provided at the back of this booklet.
Check that this booklet has pages 210 in the correct order and that none of these pages is blank.
YOU MUST HAND THIS BOOKLET TO YOUR TEACHER AT THE END OF THE ALLOTTED TIME.

OVERALL LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE

New Zealand Qualifications Authority, 2012

All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means without the prior permission of the New Zealand Qualifications Authority.

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You are advised to spend 60 minutes answering the questions in this booklet.
QUESTION ONE
(a)

The weight of individual guavas is normally distributed with a mean of 215 g with a standard
deviation of 13.2 g. A canning factory accepts guava for processing in three categories: less
than 200 g, at least 200 g but less than 220 g, and 220 g and over.
(i)

What proportion of guavas will weigh either less than 200 g or 220 g and over?

(ii)

Calculate the probability that a guava selected at random is over 205 g, given that it is
under 220 g in weight.

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(b)

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Andrew is a mechanic who is employed by a road service centre. The time taken for Andrew
to change a flat tyre is approximately normally distributed, with a mean of 12.4 minutes and a
standard deviation of 3.0 minutes.
The road service centre has recently introduced a new fee structure for changing flat tyres, as
shown in the table below:
Time taken to
change flat tyre
Fee charged ($)

Less than 10 minutes

$35

Between 10 and 15
minutes
$40

More than 15
minutes
$60

Typically, Andrew changes 48 flat tyres per week. The road service centre has set a target
that with this new fee structure, they will generate a total of $2500 in fees from Andrew
changing 48 flat tyres per week.
By considering the variation of the total fees charged for Andrew changing 48 flat tyres per
week, determine if the centres target for the total fees are reasonable.
Support your answer with calculations.

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QUESTION TWO
The observations of the number of people who queue jumped (pushed ahead of others waiting to be
served) at the express checkout at the local supermarket in a large number of 15-minute intervals
produced the following graph.

Proportion

Queue jumpers

(a)

Jumpers per 15 minutes

Calculate the expected number of queue jumpers in any given 15-minute interval.

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(b)

The store manager makes a statement to staff that he wants the store to be known as queue
jump free. This is defined by the manager as no more than one queue jumper per half an
hour.
(i)

Using your answer to part (a) and an appropriate distribution to model this situation,
calculate the probability of there being no more than one queue jumper in any given
half-hour period.
In your answer, you should justify your choice of distribution, identify the parameters of
this distribution, and state any assumptions you make.

(ii)

During the four weeks after the store manager made this statement, it was observed that
the proportion of 10-minute periods with no queue jumpers was 90%.
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Can the store manager now claim that the store is queue-jump free? You should
provide statistical evidence to support your answer.

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QUESTION THREE
Plants generally produce several flowers each season that need to be pollinated in order for fruit to
be produced. A particular fruit plant produces one flower in one season per year. The flower must
be pollinated in order for a single fruit to be produced.
This plant type can be pollinated by bees carrying pollen from flower to flower between plants of
the same type. Bee pollination has a 67% successful pollination rate.
(a)

Using an appropriate distribution, calculate the probability that one plant produces at least
three fruit over four years (seasons), if bee pollination is used.
In your answer, you should justify your choice of distribution, identify the parameters of this
distribution, and state any assumptions you make.

(b)

This plant type can also be pollinated by hand, with a person transferring pollen from flower
to flower between plants of the same type. Hand pollination has a 91% successful pollination
rate.
A home grower has 12 plants of this plant type.
Calculate the probability that for both of two years (seasons), only one of the 12 plants does
not produce fruit if hand pollination is used. State any assumptions you make.

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(c)

A gardening store that provides supplies to commercial growers has recorded the amounts per
sale (in $) of their most recent individual sales.
This information is shown in the graph below:

By applying suitable probability distribution models, determine the probability that for the
next eight individual sales, at least two of these sales are for $800 or higher.
Support your answer with reasoning, including justifying models selected and stating any
assumptions made.

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Extra space if required.

Clearly number the question (if required).
Question
number

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Extra space if required.
Clearly number the question (if required).
Question
number

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