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14) page 1 of 6
Evidence Statement
One
Expected Coverage
Normal distribution, = 215, = 13.2
(a) (i)
Achievement
Merit
Probability correctly
calculated.
(a) (ii)
P(over 205g/ under 220g) =
P(205 < X < 220) / P(X < 220) = 0.42322 / 0.64757
= 0.6536
Probability of guava
weight between 205 g
and 220 g calculated.
Conditional probability
correctly calculated.
Excellence
Using the normal distribution, with = 12.4 mins and = 3.0 mins
P(X < 10) = 0.192
P(10 < X < 15) = 0.767
P(X > 15) = 0.041
Time to
change flat
tyre (T)
Fee (F)
Probability
T < 10
10 < T < 15
T > 15
$35
0.212
$40
0.595
$60
0.193
Probability distribution
table (or equivalent
probability statements)
is developed for the
distribution of fees for
individual flat tyres.
= $8.641
x 8.641 = $59.87
(assuming independence of the times to change the flat tyres of each of the
48 tyres).
The expected total fees for 48 tyres per week is $2054.40, which is $445.60
below the centres expectations. When considering this difference of $445.60
in terms of the standard deviation of $59.87, the centres target is over 7
standard deviations above the expected total fees. Therefore, it is not
reasonable that the centre could generate fees of at least $2 500 from
Andrew changing 48 flat tyres per week.
Not Achieved
Achievement
Merit
N1
N2
A3
A4
M5
Correct calculation of
expected value and
standard deviation for F
OR
correct calculation of the
expected value for the
total fees for 48 flat tyres
and the use of the
expected value and
relevant justification to
determine whether the
centres target is
reasonable
Excellence
M6
E7
Candidate meets the Excellence criteria except for minor errors in calculation.
E8
Two
Expected Coverage
For 15-minute interval
(a)
(b) (i)
for a small interval (eg half an hour) the mean number of occurrences
(queue jumpers) is proportional to the size of the interval.
Achievement
Merit
Excellence
Correct calculation of
expected number of
jumpers per 15-minute
interval.
Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameter.
Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameter
AND
justification of applying
this distribution linked to
the context.
Not Achieved
N1
Calculation probability
of no more than one
queue jumper per half
an hour using for the
four weeks, with
discussion of store
managers claim.
Achievement
Merit
Excellence
N2
A3
A4
M5
M6
E7
Candidate meets the Excellence criteria except for minor errors in calculation.
E8
Three
Expected Coverage
Binomial distribution
n = 4, p = 0.67
Applying this distribution because:
(a)
Achievement
Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameters.
Merit
Excellence
Probability calculated
with identification of
probability distribution
and parameter
AND
justification of applying
this distribution linked to
the context.
Probability calculated
for one season.
Probability calculated
for both seasons with at
least one assumption of
independence stated.
Triangular distribution
Triangular distribution
= 0.38272 = 0.1465
Assuming whether a plant is pollinated or not in one season does not affect
the chances of the same plant being pollinated or not in another season/year,
and assuming whether a plant is pollinated or not in one season/year does
not affect the chances of another plant being pollinated or not in the same
season/year.
(c)
Triangular distribution
identified as appropriate
model and probability of
an individual sale of at
least $800 correctly
calculated using this
model.
Not Achieved
Achievement
N1
N2
A3
A4
Identification and
justification of the
binomial distribution as
an appropriate model
and the probability of
at least two sales
being at least $800
correctly calculated
using this model.
Merit
Excellence
M5
M6
E7
Candidate meets the Excellence criteria except for minor errors in calculation.
E8