FEDERAL ELECTION 2015

Riding
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Courtenay-Alberni
Edmonton Centre
Edmonton Mill Woods
Flamborough-Glanbrook

Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas

London West
Oakville
Saint John-Rothesay
Vancouver-Granville

Date
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October
October

8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8
8

Sample

Margin of Error

653
689
672
701
684
659
672
678
653
510**
665

+/- 3.82*
+/- 3.72
+/- 3.76
+/- 3.69
+/- 3.73
+/- 3.80
+/- 3.76
+/- 3.75
+/- 3.82
+/- 4.33
+/- 3.78

*19 times out of 20

***Caution: Low Sample

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manager of ongoing operations.

All Voters

Gosal

Bal Gosal (CPC)

Rosemary Keenan (NDP)
Ramesh Sangha (LPC)
Saul Bottcher (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Bal Gosal (CPC)
Rosemary Keenan (NDP)
Ramesh Sangha (LPC)
Saul Bottcher (GPC)
Undecided

Keenan

5%

41%

14%

40%

12%

5%

36%

12%

36%

BRAMPTON CENTRE

Decided & Leaning

Sangha

Bottcher

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

37% 30% 42% 37% 40% 32%
10% 17%
9%
13% 13%
12%
41% 33%
35% 33% 35% 36%
5%
7%
2%
4% 5%
4%
7%
14%
13% 13% 7%
16%
83
125
211
234 292
361
Certain
38%
12%
37%
3%
11%

Likely
27%
33%
10%
3%
26%

Might
8%
0%
70%
0%
22%

Unlikely
7%
12%
11%
53%
16%

BRAMPTON CENTRE
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
38% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
38%

12%

50%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

50% Unsure
Increase

12%

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
40% Strongly agree
32%

19%

Somewhat agree

32% Neither agree nor disagree

59%

10%

Agree

4%

Somewhat disagree

6%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
17%

29% Have

29%

54% Have not

17%
54%

Have

Unsure
Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
87%
12%
1%

NDP
48%
50%
2%

LPC
84%
9%
7%

GPC
69%
29%
1%

All Voters

Gill

Parm Gill (CPC)

Martin Singh (NDP)
Ruby Sahota (LPC)
Pauline Thornham (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Parm Gill (CPC)
Martin Singh (NDP)
Ruby Sahota (LPC)
Pauline Thornham (GPC)
Undecided

Singh

1%

46%

16%

37%

11%

1%

43%

14%

32%

BRAMPTON NORTH

Decided & Leaning

Sahota

Thornham

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

35% 29%
32% 36% 40% 25%
16% 13%
16%
8% 16%
12%
36% 49%
41% 44% 35% 50%
0%
0%
0%
1% 0%
0%
13%
9%
11%
11% 9%
12%
98
136
199
256 297
392
Certain
31%
14%
45%
1%
9%

Likely
28%
20%
13%
0%
39%

Might
10%
9%
67%
0%
14%

Unlikely
76%
7%
0%
0%
17%

BRAMPTON NORTH
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?

36%

36% More likely to vote for a candidate who

favours increasing the CBC's budget
11%

53%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

53% Unsure
Increase

11%

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
35% Strongly agree
13%
42%

Somewhat agree

42% Neither agree nor disagree

48%

Agree

5%

Somewhat disagree

4%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

9%

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
14%

32% Have
32%

54% Have not

14%
54%

Have

Unsure
Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
79%
17%
4%

NDP
64%
33%
4%

LPC
73%
23%
3%

GPC
100%
0%
0%

All Voters

Duncan

Johns

John Duncan (CPC)

Gord Johns (NDP)
Carrie Powell-Davidson (LPC)
Glenn Sollitt (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
John Duncan (CPC)
Gord Johns (NDP)
Carrie Powell-Davidson (LPC)
Glenn Sollitt (GPC)
Undecided

16%

20%

33%

30%

10%

14%

19%

29%

28%

COURTENAY-ALBERNI

Decided & Leaning

Powell-Davdson

Sollitt

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

35% 24%
21% 35% 30% 26%
19% 29%
37% 34% 23% 36%
23% 17%
19% 14% 22% 15%
18%
17%
12%
8% 11%
17%
6%
13%
11%
10% 13%
6%
75
105
238 254 316
356
Certain
29%
32%
19%
11%
9%

Likely
37%
10%
32%
1%
20%

Might
9%
7%
7%
67%
9%

Unlikely
12%
3%
0%
86%
0%

COURTENAY-ALBERNI
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
47% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
38%
47%

15%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

38% Unsure
Increase

15%

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
45% Strongly agree
25%

23% Somewhat agree

25% Neither agree nor disagree

9%
65%

Agree

3%

Somewhat disagree

6%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
4%

74% Have

23%

23% Have not

4%

Unsure

74%

Have

Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
95%
4%
1%

NDP
80%
17%
2%

LPC
69%
31%
0%

GPC
47%
48%
6%

All Voters

Cumming

James Cumming (CPC)

Gil McGowan (NDP)
Randy Boissonnault (LPC)
David Parker (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
James Cumming (CPC)
Gil McGowan (NDP)
Randy Boissonnault (LPC)
David Parker (GPC)
Undecided

McGowan

3%

27%

38%

31%

10%

2%

24%

35%

29%

EDMONTON CENTRE

Decided & Leaning

Boissonnault

Parker

18-34
24%
51%
17%
0%
7%
104

Undecided

35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

27%
33% 38% 39% 20%
29%
25% 19% 26% 43%
29%
26% 30% 22% 26%
4%
4%
1% 3%
2%
11%
12%
11% 11%
9%
158
204 235 347 354

Certain
31%
33%
26%
2%
9%

Likely
17%
55%
9%
3%
16%

Might
45%
0%
39%
4%
12%

Unlikely
3%
71%
1%
0%
25%

EDMONTON CENTRE
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
43% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
39%
43%

17%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

39% Unsure
Increase

Unsure

Privatize

17%

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
17%

47% Strongly agree

12%

Somewhat agree

25% Neither agree nor disagree

25%

59%

Agree

6%

Somewhat disagree

11%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
7%

58% Have
35% Have not

35%

58%

7%
Have

Unsure
Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
91%
8%
1%

NDP
77%
20%
3%

LPC
52%
37%
11%

GPC
42%
52%
6%

All Voters

Uppal

Tim Uppal (CPC)

Jasvir Deol (NDP)
Amarjeet Sohi (LPC)
Ralph Mclean (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Tim Uppal (CPC)
Jasvir Deol (NDP)
Amarjeet Sohi (LPC)
Ralph Mclean (GPC)
Undecided

Deol

7%

39%

15%

39%

11%

5%

35%

12%

36%

EDMONTON MILL WOODS

Decided & Leaning

Sohi

Mclean

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

25% 36% 45% 50% 41%
31%
13%
13%
14%
7% 13%
12%
47% 31%
27% 28% 33% 38%
7%
5%
2%
6% 5%
6%
7%
15%
12%
9% 8%
13%
103
157
211
213 335 349
Certain
37%
12%
36%
6%
9%

Likely
32%
22%
30%
2%
13%

Might
17%
5%
21%
0%
57%

Unlikely
28%
5%
39%
4%
23%

EDMONTON MILL WOODS

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
40% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
40%
46%

14%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

46% Unsure
Increase

14%

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
12%

41%

Strongly agree

17%

Somewhat agree

29% Neither agree nor disagree

29%
58%

Agree

3%

Somewhat disagree

9%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
9%

44% Have
47% Have not

44%

9%

47%

Have

Unsure
Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
80%
11%
9%

NDP
78%
20%
2%

LPC
70%
26%
5%

GPC
48%
48%
4%

All Voters
Sweet

David Sweet (CPC)

Mike Dilivio (NDP)
Jennifer Stebbing (LPC)
David Urqhart (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
David Sweet (CPC)
Mike Dilivio (NDP)
Jennifer Stebbing (LPC)
David Urqhart (GPC)
Undecided

Dilivio

9%

28%

14%

48%

16%

8%

23%

12%

41%

FLAMBOROUGH-GLANBROOK

Decided & Leaning

Stebbing

Urqhart

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

39% 45% 43% 37% 43%
9%
18%
10% 10% 8%
9%
16%
16% 19%
30% 31% 23% 23%
17%
2%
5%
5% 7%
9%
11%
15% 17% 19%
22%
13%
126
191
134
208 304 355
Certain
45%
11%
23%
7%
14%

Likely
22%
5%
0%
34%
40%

Might
3%
0%
17%
71%
9%

Unlikely
9%
73%
0%
0%
18%

FLAMBOROUGH-GLANBROOK
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
37% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
37%
46%

16%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

4%

Unsure
Increase

16%

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
34% Strongly agree

16%

17%

Somewhat agree

33% Neither agree nor disagree

51%

33%

Agree

5%

Somewhat disagree

11%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
42% Have

10%

48% Have not

42%

10% Unsure

48%

Have

Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
80%
15%
5%

NDP
79%
16%
5%

LPC
79%
16%
5%

GPC
34%
64%
2%

All Voters
Samuel

Vincent Samuel (CPC)

Alex Johnstone (NDP)
Filomena Tassi (LPC)
Peter Ormond (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Vincent Samuel (CPC)
Alex Johnstone (NDP)
Filomena Tassi (LPC)
Peter Ormond (GPC)
Undecided

Johnstone

7%

50%

16%

27%

13%

6%

43%

24%

14%

HAMILTON WEST-ANCASTER-DUNDAS

Decided & Leaning

Tassi

Ormond

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

24% 25%
25% 29% 26% 22%
14% 16%
16% 13% 11%
17%
39% 39%
39% 43% 43% 43%
7%
7%
7%
3% 6%
7%
16% 13%
13%
11% 15%
12%
97
189
136
250 320 352
Certain
26%
16%
43%
6%
9%

Likely
6%
5%
36%
1%
52%

Might
12%
2%
15%
26%
46%

Unlikely
9%
7%
68%
0%
15%

HAMILTON WEST-ANCASTER-DUNDAS

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
48% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
38%

48%

14%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

38% Unsure
Increase

14%

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
44% Strongly agree
28%

19%

Somewhat agree

28% Neither agree nor disagree

7%

63%

Agree

2%

Somewhat disagree

7%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
5%

72% Have

24%

24% Have not

5%

Unsure

72%

Have

Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
91%
8%
1%

NDP
64%
33%
3%

LPC
67%
29%
4%

GPC
52%
22%
26%

All Voters

Holder

Ed Holder (CPC)
Matthew Rowlinson (NDP)
Kate Young (LPC)
Dimitri Lascaris (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Vincent Samuel (CPC)
Alex Johnstone (NDP)
Filomena Tassi (LPC)
Peter Ormond (GPC)
Undecided

Rowlinson

6%

42%

19%

33%

12%

5%

37%

30%

17%

LONDON WEST

Decided & Leaning

Young

Lascaris

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

22% 26% 30% 6% 36% 24%
24% 15%
16% 10% 15%
19%
35% 40%
41% 30% 36% 38%
12%
3%
1%
2% 5%
5%
7%
10%
18%
11% 8%
15%
87
227 230 322
134
356
Certain
31%
18%
38%
4%
9%

Likely
6%
12%
15%
33%
34%

Might
25%
5%
10%
5%
56%

Unlikely
0%
5%
16%
0%
79%

LONDON WEST
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
43% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
40%

43%

16%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

40% Unsure
Increase

16%

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
45% Strongly agree

12%

17%

Somewhat agree

25% Neither agree nor disagree

25%

63%

Agree

4%

Somewhat disagree

9%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
74% Have

5%

21%

21%

Have not

5%

Unsure

74%

Have

Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
89%
9%
2%

NDP
74%
25%
1%

LPC
68%
27%
5%

GPC
31%
65%
4%

All Voters

Young

Terence Young (CPC)

Che Marville (NDP)
John Oliver (LPC)
David Doel (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Terence Young (CPC)
Che Marville (NDP)
John Oliver (LPC)
David Doel (GPC)
Undecided

Marville

7%

50%

5%

38%

7%

7%

47%

4%

36%

OAKVILLE

Decided & Leaning

Oliver

Doel

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

31% 36% 39% 40% 40% 32%
4%
5%
4%
6% 4%
3%
51% 45% 45% 46% 43% 50%
13%
4%
7%
3% 6%
8%
6%
7%
9%
5% 7%
7%
85
197
133
238 300 353
Certain
36%
3%
50%
5%
6%

Likely
40%
12%
12%
25%
11%

Might
35%
0%
19%
10%
36%

Unlikely
9%
0%
0%
57%
34%

OAKVILLE
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
45% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
35%

45%

20% More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC
35% Unsure

20%

Increase

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
42% Strongly agree

16%

16%

Somewhat agree

27% Neither agree nor disagree

58%

27%

Agree

3%

Somewhat disagree

13%

Strongly disagree

Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
72% Have

4%

25%

25% Have not

4%

72%

Have

Unsure
Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
79%
20%
1%

NDP
52%
47%
2%

LPC
73%
24%
3%

GPC
21%
71%
9%

All Voters

Weston

Rodney Weston (CPC)

AJ Griffin (NDP)
Wayne Long (LPC)
Sharon Murphy (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Rodney Weston (CPC)
AJ Griffin (NDP)
Wayne Long (LPC)
Sharon Murphy (GPC)
Undecided

AJ Griffin

4%

34%

26%

36%

12%

3%

32%

21%

32%

SAINT JOHN-ROTHESAY

Decided & Leaning

Long

Murphy

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

30% 28%
29% 42% 33% 31%
37% 21%
18%
11% 26% 17%
16% 38% 39% 34% 30% 35%
0%
1%
7%
2% 2%
3%
17%
13%
7%
11% 9%
15%
75
135
99
201 236
274
Certain
32%
20%
34%
2%
12%

Likely
44%
33%
14%
0%
9%

Might
13%
50%
8%
7%
21%

Unlikely
17%
11%
45%
0%
26%

SAINT JOHN-ROTHESAY
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Thinking
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45% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget
45%

9%

45%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

45% Unsure
Increase

9%

Privatize

Unsure

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
47% Strongly agree
14%

29%

Somewhat agree

29% Neither agree nor disagree

61%
10%

3%

Somewhat disagree

7%

Strongly disagree

Agree

Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
67% Have

7%

26%

26% Have not

7%

67%

Have

Unsure
Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC LPC NDP GPC

77% 70% 67% 57%
17% 24% 30% 31%
6%
11%
6%
3%

All Voters

Broshko

Erinn Broshko (CPC)

Mira Oreck (NDP)
Jody Wilson-Raybould (LPC)
Michael Barkusky (GPC)
Undecided
Sample
Erinn Broshko (CPC)
Mira Oreck (NDP)
Jody Wilson-Raybould (LPC)
Michael Barkusky (GPC)
Undecided

Oreck

9%

44%

28%

20%

11%

8%

39%

25%

17%

VANCOUVER-GRANVILLE

Decided & Leaning

Wilson-Raybould

Barkusky

Undecided

18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female

8%
20% 33% 17%
14%
17%
25% 33%
27%
8% 24% 26%
44% 41%
33% 36% 37% 41%
14%
8%
2%
7% 11%
5%
9%
12%
10%
17% 11%
11%
95
236 232 301
102
364
Certain
17%
26%
41%
8%
9%

Likely
18%
46%
18%
0%
18%

Might
8%
0%
11%
16%
65%

Unlikely
18%
26%
18%
0%
38%

VANCOUVER-GRANVILLE
Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,
which of the following two statements is closest to your personal view?
65% More likely to vote for a candidate who
favours increasing the CBC's budget

26%

9%
9%
65%

More likely to vote for a candidate

who favours privatizing the CBC

26% Unsure
Increase

Unsure

Privatize

Thinking about the government's recent cuts to the CBC's funding,

do you believe these cuts should be reversed?
63% Strongly agree

7%

15%

79%

Agree

16%

Somewhat agree

15%

Neither agree nor disagree

3%

Somewhat disagree

4%

Strongly disagree
Disagree

Neither agree nor disagree

Thinking about the federal election and the CBC,

have you seen any lawn signs featuring a message 'We Vote CBC!'?
25% Have

11%
24%

65% Have not

11%
65%

Have

Unsure
Have not

Unsure

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party,

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election?
Strong Supporter
Might Change
Not Sure

CPC
89%
11%
0%

NDP
58%
40%
2%

LPC
75%
19%
6%

GPC
84%
16%
0%

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience

at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected
commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate
snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in
Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate
pollster of last Octobers Toronto mayoral election.

Polls were conducted in Brampton Centre, Brampton North,

Courtenay-Alberni,
Edmonton Centre, Edmonton Mill Woods,
Flamborough-Glanbrook, Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas, London
West, Oakville, Saint John-Rothesay and Vancouver Granville using
Smart IVR. See next page for dial dates, samples and margins of error.
Polls were commissioned and paid for by the Friends of Canadian
Broadasting.

For More Information:

Mainstreet Research:
David Valentin, david@mainstreetresearch.ca