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David M. Rubenstein
Important Information
This presentation has been prepared by The Carlyle Group L.P. (Carlyle) and may only be used for informational purposes only. This
presentation provides an overview of Carlyle and is not intended to be taken by, and should not be taken by, any individual recipient as
investment advice, a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security, or an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to purchase any security. An
offer or solicitation for an investment in an investment fund managed or sponsored by Carlyle or its affiliates (Fund) will occur only through an
offering memorandum and related purchase documentation, and subject to the terms and conditions contained in such documents and in the
Funds operative agreements.
By accepting this presentation, the recipient agrees that it will, and will cause its representatives and advisors to, use the information contained
herein for informational purposes only. Recipient also agrees that neither this presentation nor the information contained herein may be
copied, disclosed or provided, in whole or in part, to third parties without the prior written consent of Carlyle. This presentation may not be
referenced, quoted or linked by website, in whole or in part except as agreed to in writing by Carlyle.
Certain information contained in this presentation has been obtained from published and non-published sources prepared by other parties,
which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for the purpose used
in this presentation, Carlyle does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information and such information
has not been independently verified by Carlyle. Except where otherwise indicated herein, the information provided in this presentation is based
on matters as they exist as of the date of preparation and not as of any future date, and will not be updated or otherwise revised to reflect
information that subsequently becomes available, or circumstances existing or changes occurring after the date hereof. References to portfolio
companies are presented to illustrate the application of Carlyles investment process only and should not be considered a recommendation of
any particular security or portfolio company. Information about recommendations over the last year is available upon request. It should not be
assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of past recommendations.
Statements contained in this presentation that are not historical facts are based on current expectations, estimates, projections, opinions
and/or beliefs of Carlyle. Such statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors, and undue reliance should not be
placed thereon. Certain information contained in this presentation constitutes forward-looking statements, which can be identified by the use
of forward-looking terminology such as may, will, should, seek, expect, anticipate, forecast, project, estimate, intend, continue,
target, or believe or the negatives thereof or other variations thereon or comparable terminology. Due to various risks and uncertainties,
actual events or results may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated in such forward-looking statements. None of Carlyle or any
of its Funds or representatives makes any assurance as to the accuracy of those predictions or forward looking statements. Carlyle expressly
disclaims any obligation or undertaking to update or revise any such forward-looking statements.
Largest fundraising
volume since the Great
Recession
Funds raised by
geographic focus:
$688
$600
$485
$500
$384
$400
$320
$300
$294
$332
$200
$100
Europe 23%
Asia 9%
Rest of World 4%
$0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Global Private Equity Deal Volume Was Up 15% In 2013 But Remains 50%
Below The 2006 Peak
$900
$800
Average leverage
multiple of 5.4x
Deal volume by
geographic focus:
$785 $781
$700
$600
$500
$389
$400
$321 $337
$300
$253
$200
$252
$134
$100
$0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Europe 28%
Asia 8%
Rest of World 5%
Source: Thomson One & S&P Leveraged Commentary Data, Q4 2013 Update. There is no guarantee these trends will
continue.
Source: Preqin
Global Private Equity Exit Volume Was 14% Above The 2007 Pre-Great
Recession Peak
$350
$313
$300
$285
$266
$250
$303
$222
$200
$163
$150
$116
$100
$81
$50
Sale to GP 26%
IPO 19%
Restructuring 3%
$0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source:
Source:
Preqin.
Preqin
There is no guarantee these trends will continue.
2012
2013
12.0x
60%
10.0x
8.0x
50%
9.7x
9.1x
8.4x
51%
8.5x
8.4x
8.8x
8.7x
8.8x
7.7x
40%
32%
6.0x
30%
4.0x
20%
2.0x
10%
0.0x
0%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
44%
43%
42%
39%
37%
33% 33%
Emerging Markets Now Account For More Than Half Of Global GDP
60.0%
55.0%
50.0%
45.0%
2013=54%
40.0%
35.0%
2004=38%
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
30.0%
10
13%
12%
20%
18%
16%
10%
14%
8%
6%
12%
11%
10%
5%
8%
4%
6%
4%
2%
2%
0%
0%
2002
2013
2006
2012
11
1.03%
1.02% 1.04%
1.00%
0.89%
0.80%
0.60%
0.40%
0.28%
0.20%
0.24%
0.20%
0.19%
0.13% 0.12%
0.05%
0.06%
0.09%
0.09%
0.09%0.07%0.04%
0.04% 0.01%
0.20%
0.00%
US
UK
S. Korea
India
Brazil
SSA
China
S. Africa
12
Japan
MENA
13
SWF Assets Have Increased By More Than $4 Trillion In Less Than A Decade
And Are Projected To Grow Faster Than U.S. Public Pension Fund Assets
Sovereign Wealth Fund Assets Under Management ($ trillions)
$10.0
$8.9
$9.0
$8.0
$7.0
$6.0
$5.4
$5.0
$4.0
$3.0
$2.0
$1.4
$1.0
$2004
2013
Source: 2014 Preqin Sovereign Wealth Fund Review and PWC Asset Management 2020: A Brave New World. There is no
guarantee these trends will continue.
2020P
14
2010
2013
SWFs
3%
SWFs
13%
All Other
Investors
97%
All Other
Investors
87%
Source: Dow Jones Private Equity Analyst Sources of Capital Survey, 5/29/13. There is no guarantee these trends will continue.
15
16
Mass Affluent Assets Under Management Are Larger And Faster Growing
Than High Net Worth Assets Under Management
Mass Affluent AUM
($100k - $1mm net worth)
$ trillions
$120
$120
$100
$100
$80
$100
$77
$80
$60
$60
$40
$60
$42
$40
$20
$20
$-
$2004
2012
2020P
$52
$38
2004
2012
17
2020P
Total Value of US
Retirement Plans ($ trillions)
$20
$20
$15
$9
$11
$10
$5
$6
$5
$3
$5
$3
$-
2002
IRAs
2012
Other (Incl. Defined Benefit Plans)
Source: Investment Company Institute Fact Book 2013. There is no guarantee these trends will continue.
18
19%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
2008-2010
Source: 2014 Preqin Global Private Equity Report. There is no guarantee these trends will continue.
2011-2013
19
20
Median = 15%
15%
10%
5%
Source: Cambridge Associates LLC U.S. Private Equity Index and Selected Benchmark Statistics. As of 9/30/13. Excludes
vintages with less than 3 years of performance.
21
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
0%
30%
29%
26%
25%
20%
15%
13%
11%
10%
8%
7%
11%
8%
7%
5%
0%
5-Year
MSCI World Index
10-Year
All Buyout Funds
20-Year
Top Quartile Buyout Funds
Source: Cambridge Associates, Thomson One Financial as of 9/30/13. There is no guarantee these trends will continue.
22
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Leverage Era (1980s)
Operational Improvement
Source: Goldman Sachs, BCG-IESE estimate.
Multiple Arbitrage
Operational
Improvement (2010s)
Leverage
23
24
28%
25%
20%
18%
15%
13%
10%
8%
12%
9%
5%
5%
6%
4%
6%
3% 3%
0%
Family Offices
Endowments
Foundations
2009
Source: 2013 Preqin Investor Network Global Alternatives Report & Preqin 2014 Global Private Equity Report. There is no
guarantee these trends will continue.
25
Insurance
Companies
18%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
44%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
39%
20%
10%
10%
0%
0%
Dec-13
10%
53%
36%
Dec-13
Increase Allocation
At Target Allocation
Maintain Allocation
Decrease Allocation
26
27
Private Equity AUM Has Grown At A 20% CAGR Since 1980 And
Now Stands At $3.5 Trillion
$4.0
$3.5
$3.3
$3.0
$3.0
$2.8
$2.5
$2.5
$2.3 $2.3
$2.0
$1.7
$1.5
$1.2
$1.0
$0.5
$-
$0.2
$0.1 $0.1 $0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.1
$0.0
$0.0
$0.3
$0.9
$1.0
$0.4
1980 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source:
Source:
2013Preqin
Preqin Investor Network Global Alternatives Report and McKinsey.
28
Alternatives AUM is $6 trillion today vs. $2 trillion a decade ago (14% CAGR)
Asset management AUM is $62 trillion today vs. $38 trillion a decade ago (6% CAGR)
10%
8%
6%
5%
4%
2%
0%
2003
Source: BCG Global Asset Management 2013 Report: Capitalizing On The Recovery. There is no guarantee these trends will
continue.
2012
29
30
(2007)
(2007)
(2007)
(2010)
(2012)
Note: Year respective firm went public. Presented for illustrative purposes only.
(2011)
(2012)
31
Driving Factors
Stability
Consistency of returns
Brand
Size
Transparency
Global Presence
Value Added
Public Visibility
6.8%
2006
2013
Source: Preqin. Industry fundraising includes Buyout, Growth, Real Estate, Natural Resources, Mezzanine, Distressed, Early/Venture,
Balanced, , Special Situation, Timber, and Turnaround. Represents the rolling 3-year average market share of The Carlyle Group &
US publicly traded peers relative to overall industry wide fundraising. There is no guarantee these trends will continue.
32
33
66%
60%
50%
47%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
IPO
Source: SEC Filings. Calculated as the median of non-corporate private equity assets / total assets for Carlyle, Blackstone,
Apollo, KKR, & Oaktree. Calculated as of each companys respective IPO date and 9/30/13.
Q4 2013
34
35
75%
50%
25%
Banks (14%)
0%
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Banks
Non-Banks
Source: S&P LCD Quarterly Q4 2013. Non-banks include: institutional investors, insurance companies, and finance companies.
36
Interest Costs For Corporate Borrowers Have To Rise 200 Basis Points Just
To Reach Pre-Great Recession Levels
8.0%
7.7%
7.0%
6.0%
3.3%
5.7%
5.0%
4.0%
4.5%
3.0%
2.0%
4.4%
1.0%
1.2%
0.0%
2005-2007
Avg. 5 Year Treasury
2013
Avg. B-Rated Corporate Spread
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve. B-Rate Corporate Spread represents BofA Merrill Lynch US High Yield B Option-Adjusted
Spread.
37
38
5.0%
3.0%
0.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
-0.4%
-0.7%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-3.0%
-4.0%
-5.0%
1.4%
1.0%
-4.4%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 2014 & 2015 Projections from IMF January 2014 World Economic Outlook Update.
39
50%
40%
52%
46%
48%
48%
44%
39%
34%
36%
33%
32%
31%
28%
30%
23%
20%
10%
0%
2000
Source: Thomson One.
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
40
2012
2013
11.00x
10.1x
EBITDA Multiple
10.00x
9.00x
8.00x
14.00x
12.3x
12.00x
8.2x
23%
8.00x
7%
10.1x
10.00x
7.3x
8.1x
6.2x
7.8x
7.00x
6.00x
4.00x
6.00x
7.6x
2.00x
0.00x
5.00x
European Avg
U.S. Value-Weighted
Source: S&Q Capital IQ, Bloomberg EEO. 1. FTSE 100, DAX 30, CAC 40, AEX, Ibex 35, FTSE MIB; arithmetic mean. The EBITDA
multiples and financial indices referenced herein as benchmarks are provided for informational purposes only.
41
Private equity will continue to have one of the best risk-return profiles of
any area in money management
Bonus Truths:
100% of private equity funds will
continue to be in the top quartile
All private equity firms will
continue to avoid participation in any auction
The new name for the
private equity industry will be
43