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Content Index
Atul Auto Limited Investment Snapshot :- Slide #3
Industry Opportunity An Overview:- Slide #5
Rising Market Share :- Company since the launch of its RE backed product, has been able to consistently grow
faster than the Industry. Even during the tough economic environments of the last 2 years, Atul Auto has grown well.
The Companys market share has increased almost 10X over the last decade which is huge, albeit from a low base.
Large Opportunity :- Even after the strong Growth of last few years, Atul Auto still occupies a Market Share of less
than 15% across all segments. The Market opportunity is big enough for the company to grow consistently for the next
several years, just by deeper penetration and plugging voids in the Product portfolio.
Et
High ROE business :- The Industry is not Capital Intensive and considering the High Capital Asset turnover of the
Business, Atul Auto will continue to be a High ROE business despite the temporary fluctuations in Margins. Companys
current RONW of over 30% will only improve going forward.
Ambitious Growth Plans :- Atul Auto has very ambitious Growth plans which can be seen from the aggressive
Capacity expansions. While the current capacity itself is over 5X the companys sales in 2009, it has already started
planning to double the capacity over the next few years.
Strong Balance Sheet :- Atul Auto has a clean Balance sheet with no Debt and little complexity. The Working Capital
management is tight leading to strong Cash Flow generation. This Balance sheet strength removes some of the Risks
associated with small companies in Cyclical sectors.
Good Management with track record :- Company has a good aggressive management which has rewarded
shareholders with liberal bonus and dividends. Apart from that the company disclosure policies are good enough with
little worries about the Corporate Governance part.
Strong Growth Levers :- With Macro Economic scenario expected to improve slowly over the next 2 years along
with increasing Rural Prosperity, we believe that strong 3-Wheeler sales are her to stay. Margin growth also has levers in
the form of Increasing Scale, Brand Visibility, Bargaining power with both Suppliers and Customers etc.
Compelling Valuations :- Despite the improving Fundamentals and strong performance over the past few years
which has decreased the Business Risk, the stock continues to trade at less than 8X trailing earnings allowing us to buy a
good growing business at cheap Valuations.
Three Wheeler
Four Wheeler
Tonnage
0.3 to 0.5T
0.5 to 1.25T
Ex-showroom Prices
150000-180000
180000-400000
Downpayment+Insurance+Registration
Rs.55000-Rs.60000
Rs.65000-Rs.120000
Availability of Finance
Medium
High
Key Financiers
EMI(Rs.Per Month)
Rs.4500-Rs.5000
Rs.5000-Rs.9500
Fuel Efficiency(Kms/Liter)
30-32
15-25
Rs.2200-Rs.2500
Rs.3500-Rs.9000
Rs.900 to Rs.1200
Rs.1500-Rs.2250
Rs.600-Rs.750
Rs.1250-Rs.1750
Rs.500-Rs.750
Rs.750-Rs.1000
Rs.1000-Rs.1250
Rs.1500
Rs.18000-Rs.20000
Rs.25000-Rs.40000
Products
Atul Auto has consistently increased its Product
profile with the addition of several new products.
The company also has been able to work across
different Fuel segments including Petrol, Diesel and
LPG for its various products.
Atul Autos products are generally lighter and gives
better Fuel Mileage compared to competitors.
All products of Atul Auto are currently fitted with
engines manufactured by Greaves Cotton which
lends strong credibility to the product.
Company provides customized vehicles like tippers,
hydraulic hoppers, vegetable vending vans etc. The
vehicles find wide application in courier services,
industrial products, laundry construction, dairies,
caterers, FMCG distribution, &LPG distribution.
Competitive Strength
Atul Auto is the only player in
the three wheeler industry with
standalone focus on this
segment as compared to its
rivals who are more focused on
other segments. This helps the
company to establish a unique
identity for itself apart from
bringing new products to the
market due to its focus on a
single segment.
The company products give a
higher mileage ,lower cost apart
from a 2 year warranty not
offered by any of its competitors.
The company has introduced
new vehicles in the CNG and LPG
segment which have a strong
demand in the market and are
likely to be the future growth
driver for the industry.
Growing Brands
Majority of companys three wheelers are
sold under the brand names Atul Shakti,
Atul Gem and Atul Smart.
Atul Sakti, Atul Gem and Atul smart
(Loading) are suitable for carrying
transportation of small volumes of cargo
from transit station to main offices and vice
versa. Unique features of the vehicle include
auto ignition start, fuel efficiency etc.
Company has introduced different types of
vehicle to cater to the specific demand of
the customers like Pack Body Vehicles, Soft
Drink Carrier, High Deck, Chicken Carrier,
Hydraulic Tipper, Ice Cream shop, Hopper,
Water tank carrier and Open Box type body.
Atul Sakti, Atul Gem and Atul smart
(Passenger)has an approved capacity to
carry 3 passengers (excluding driver) or in
terms of pay load capacity it can carry 500
kgs while Gemini-Dz can carry 253 kgs.
Distribution Reach
Company has about 150 dealers
with presence in 16 states and
this is likely to increase as the
company has planned to enter
into new geographies.
The Company has recently
signed an agreement to assemble
three-wheelers in Sri Lanka,
which would help bypass high
import duty rates.
Company plans to enter new
locations like Bihar, Jharkhand,
Orissa, Karnataka, Punjab,
Haryana and Tamil Nadu etc.
From the current presence in 16
states, the company aims to be
present in 20 states .
Investment Rationale
Key Highlights
Growth Opportunity
In a Market where over 3 Lakh vehicles
are sold in 3-Wheeler segment, the
scope for Atul growth is Huge.
Attractive Price
Considering that the Stock is quoting
at less than 4.5X Cash flow from
operations of 2013, the stock is
definitely cheap allowing both
Earnings Growth + P/E Re-rating.
Cash generating
Business
Atul Auto generates Solid Cash
flows which allows it to expand
using Internal Accruals without any
stress for Working Capital or Long
Term borrowings.
Atul Auto
Margin Expansion
With Volumes growing, we
believe that EBIDTA Margins can
inch up slowly to over 13%
considering Economies of Scale
and subdued Commodity prices.
S Shaped Growth
The companys current S shaped
growth is a result of its RE product
launch in 2009. We believe that with
a new set of products in the 0.35
Tonne market, the company can
again move into a different Growth
orbit going forward.
Atul Auto revenues have been growing strongly over the years and we expect this growth to continue on
the back of improved capacity utilization and expanded capacity apart from expansion in distribution
network across the country.
The company recorded EBITDA of Rs.28 Cr and Rs.40 Cr in FY12 & FY13 respectively and is likely to be
around Rs.45 Cr and Rs.50 Cr in FY14 and FY15 respectively.
The company reported PAT (in Crs) of Rs.16 and Rs.26 for FY12 and FY13 respectively and this is likely to
grow to about Rs.29 and Rs.32 in FY14 and FY15 respectively.
Strong Financials
The company has a good and capable management apart from experience of the promoter family in the
auto business for about 35 years.
The company has inducted fresh blood with young and dynamic N.J.Chandra now looking after the
operations of the company. He was the person responsible for turnaround in the fortunes of the company
which resulted in the company gaining market share and increase in capacity expansion thereby driving
growth. This gives us more confidence about the future.
Apart from the above two the company s Independent director is V.K.Kedia who has about 25 years of
experience in finance and is one of the smartest Investors in Dalal street.
Financials
Earnings Projection
Profit & Loss Statement
Y/E March (Rs Cr)
Net Sales
% chg
Total Expenditure
Cost of Materials
Personnel Expenses
Other Expenses
EBITDA
% chg
(% of Net Sales)
Depre. & Amortisation
EBIT
% chg
(% of Net Sales)
Interest & other
Other Income
PBT (reported)
Tax
PAT (reported)
% chg
(% of Net Sales)
Fully Diluted EPS(Rs)
% chg
299
47.9
271
238
16
17
28
41.7
9.2
4
23
53.3
7.8
1
1
23
8
16
65.1
5.2
13.9
65.1
364
21.8
324
284
21
19
40
45.5
11
4
36
53.1
9.8
0
2
37
11
26
66.3
7.1
23.1
66.3
434
19.3
389
340
25
24
45
12.1
10.4
5
40
11.2
9.1
0
2
42
13
29
11.4
6.7
25.8
11.4
FY2015E
507
16.9
457
398
30
29
50
11.2
9.8
6
44
9.9
8.6
0
3
46
14
32
10.6
6.3
28.5
10.6
The company is dependent on a single segment namely three wheelers which are highly susceptible to
changes in GDP growth rates. Any slow down in the economy will eventually lead to poor demand for the
segment which will result in weakness in top-line and bottom-line growth.
3.) Intense Competition from Bigger Players:
Atul Auto is present in an industry which has leading players like Bajaj Auto , Piaggio etc who have higher
market reach and brand apart from strong distribution network across the length and breadth of the
country. Atul Auto was till recently confined to a single state namely Gujarat and is expanding its network
which may or may not be as envisaged by the company.
Conclusion
Price Chart
Share Holding
%
Mar
2013
Dec
2012
Sep
2012
Jun
2012
Promoters
56.62
56.62
56.62
60.81
FII
0.11
DII
Others
43.27
43.38
43.38
39.19
Atul Auto has been on a strong Upside over the last few
years. In fact the stock has doubled itself over the last 1
year when all Small cap stocks have been battered.
The Stock is on a strong Technical footing with Higher
Highs and Lower Lows, there by indicating more steam left
in its Bull run.
Institutional Interest has still not picked up in the share
and this can provide further boost to the share price as
people enter it over a period of time.
Conclusion
This is a surprising pick at a time when most Small cap stocks are getting beaten down heavily. But we
believe that, Market conditions like these separates the Chaff from the Wheat and makes our job easier. In
spite of being a Small Cap company in a cyclical sector, we believe that the company has shown tremendous
resilience in its performance.
While the company has a bad track record in the early part of 2000s, we believe that the company has
improved structurally with changes in Management and a more robust Product portfolio. With an aggressive
team and so many low hanging fruits, we believe that the company would be able to maintain its Growth
momentum and can accelerate with supporting Macro conditions.
Company has also been launching new products and with increased Capacity and Dealer network, we
expect an all round improvement in Margins, Market Share, Revenues, Profitability etc. With a Management
which is Transparent and a Balance sheet which is strong, the company doesnt suffer from the problems
usually associated Small-cap stocks.
At the current Valuations of less than 4.5X Cash flow from Operations, <4X EV/ EBIDTA multiple and
around 8X trailing EPS its definitely attractive for a long term Investor. This allows for both Earnings
growth and Valuations expansion, potentially giving Multibagger returns. In spite of all these positives,
Investors should not take a big bet (>5% of Portfolio) considering the Inherent Risks and other High
conviction mouth watering stocks which are available.
THANK YOU