XVth International Symposium on High Voltage Engineering

University of Ljubljana, Elektrointitut Milan Vidmar, Ljubljana, Slovenia, August 27-31, 2007

T6-442.pdf

Transformer Reliability and Condition Assessment in a South African Utility

J.N. Jagers 1* , J. Khosa 1, P.J. De Klerk 1 and C.T. Gaunt
1
Eskom, South Africa
Dept. of Electrical Engineering, University of Cape Town, South Africa, ct.gaunt@uct.ac.za
*Email: janine.jagers@eskom.co.za

Abstract: Reliable power delivery has become an

international concern with utilities . Transformers are an
integral part of power systems and their reliable
operation directly impacts that of the whole network.
This paper provides the preliminary results of an
ongoing transformer reliability investigation of the
failed units on the Eskom transmission network. The
data is analysed and interpreted in terms of its
probability density function (PDF), survival function
and hazard function to determine an onset of
unreliability in transformer life as described by
international standards. The paper also reviews the
condition monitoring and assessment initiatives being
implemented in Eskom Transmission. The paper
provides data suitable for comparing with the
experiences of different utilities.

1 INTRODUCTION
In 1997 Eskom conducted a study that classified
transformer failures occurring in the period 1985-1995
into the most prominent failure modes [1]. In 2006 this
investigation was extended for units failing in the period
1996 2006. The preliminary results of the ongoing
investigation for the transmission transformer failures
are presented and discussed in terms the probability
density function (PDF), the survival function and the
hazard function to determine an onset of unreliability in
transformer life. According to [2] studies of this nature
provide a more realistic failure model.
Information from [3] suggests that, the statistical failure
distributions for transformer life in this study can be
interpreted as follows:
The probability density function (PDF) gives the
probability of failure of a transformer as a function of
age. A point on the PDF can be interpreted as a
percentage of the population of transformers failing at a
certain age, or the probability of a transformer failing at
a certain age.
The survival function is also referred to as the reliability
function and gives the probability of survivorship at a
certain age. A point on the survival function can be
interpreted as the probability of a transformer surviving
beyond a certain age, or the percentage of transformers
surviving at least until a certain age. The hazard
function gives the failure rate distribution with age. The
nature of the failure rate with age over certain periods
provides useful information regarding life distribution

of a type of equipment. Periods that could be identified

are as follows:
Higher failure rates in early life that could be
associated with design or manufacturing
problems.
Constant or low failure rates, representing
normal life.
Increasing failure rates after a certain age that
which can be associated with end-of-life wear
out failures.
While the assessment of the condition of transformers
has been performed over time, it has been largely
through time-based interventions. Eskom is now
implementing the more judicious application of
continuous, on-line instrumentation, with positive
results. Some of the methods and results are described.

2 DATA ANALYSIS
2.1. Failure Definition
Failure has been defined in accordance with the IEC
60050 definition as follows:
The termination of the ability of a circuit, bay or item to
perform a required function.
Failures have further been classified into three levels of
severity as severe, intermediate and minor failures.
Severe failures are those failures which necessitated the
removal of the transformer for repair or replacement.
Intermediate failures are those which were possible to
repair onsite, but usually required intrusive work on the
transformer itself. Minor failures typically cover trip
events which occurred as a result of the failure of
secondary plant on a transformer and not affecting a
transformers major components.
2.2. Failure Dataset
The failures for units of rating 30MVA and primary
voltage 132kV that failed in the period 1996 2006
are given in the Table 1. The analysis in this paper is
restricted to the severe and intermediate failures where
the component initiating failure has been identified.

Table 1: Breakdown of failures

Failure
severity

All
failures

Severe
Intermediate
Minor
Total

60
105
94
259

Component
initiating
failure
identified
39
97
78
214

Component
initiating failure not
identified
21
8
16
45

2.3. Transformer Population

Figure 1 shows an estimation of the population of
transformers of rating 30MVA and primary voltage
132kV installed on the ESKOM transmission network
in the period 1996 2006.
200
180
160

The combined failure rate for severe and intermediate

failures is 4.1%. However, the bulk of these failures
were those of units manufactured after the 1970s. The
average failure rate in the CIGRE survey [4] was
calculated as 2% and was based on units failing in the
period 1968 1978.
The observed difference in failure rate for the two
periods could be attributed to the general perception that
older transformer designs were inherently more reliable
than their younger counterparts.
2.5. Failure Analysis
The failure analysis has been based on the transformer
population given in figure 1 and the set of 136 severe
and intermediate failures that has been classified at
component level. The transformer population and
failures were grouped into age bins of width 5 years, as
shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Bin classification for transformer population and
failures

140

Bin No.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10

100
80
60
40
20

46

44

42

40

38

36

34

32

30

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

Age (Years)

Figure 1: Population of transmission transformers installed on

the network during 1996 2006. X axis: n = integer value of
age, not rounded

The number of units in the sample space population is

4015. Older units above 30 years represent 38% of the
existing fleet and about 27% of the current installed
capacity in terms of MVA.

Age Groups
0 Age < 5
5 Age < 10
10 Age < 15
15 Age < 20
20 Age < 25
25 Age < 30
30 Age < 35
35 Age < 40
40 Age < 45
45 Age < 50

Age (Years)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45

In the analysis that follows, the points on the PDF and

survival function curves are expressed as probabilities
and are given by the y-axis labelled Probability. The
points on the hazard function are given by the second yaxis labelled Failure Rate.
1.2

2.4. Failure Rates

0.25

Table 2: Failure rates by severity, for all failures and for

failures classified by component
Failure Severity

Failure Rate
All failures

Severe
Intermediate
Severe +
Intermediate
Minor

1.5%
2.6%
4.1%

Failure Rate
Components
identified
1.0%
2.4%
3.4%

2.3%

1.9%

0.2

0.8

Probability

Annual failure rates have been calculated according

to the following formula as described in [4] as:
Failure rate = (sum of the number of transformers
that failed in each year over the study period) / (sum of
the number of transformers in service each year over the
study period)
The calculated failure rates for the data set described
in section 2.2 are shown in Table 2.

0.15
0.6
0.1

Failure Rate

Units

120

0.4
0.05

0.2

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Age (Years)
Survival

PDF

Hazard

Figure 2: Failure distributions for the severe and intermediate

transmission transformer failures during the period 1996
2006

The nominal design life of transmission transformers is

35 years. The failure distribution of severe and
intermediate transformer failures in figure 2 shows that
failures start in early life. The survival function
indicates that of the transformers failing in the period

From figure 1, units of age 10 years contribute to 16%

of the total sample space population compared to the
older units between 11 and 25 years, which make up
about 48% of the total sample space population. The
hazard function curve, giving the failure rate with age,
shows a period of constant failure rates up to 25 years.
Younger units were thus failing at a similar rate as the
older units even though making up a smaller part
population. This behaviour could be indicative of design
or manufacturing problems in younger transformers.

described as the failure of the winding insulation and

referred to insulation coordination failure. This mode
contributed to 18% of the failures while the current
study revealed 16% contribution by winding related
failures. Statistics for bushing related failures are not
available in the 1997 study.
The component level analysis in figures 4 - 8 follows
behaviour similar to that of the combined group of
severe and intermediate failures in terms of their onset
of unreliability in early life, with the exception of
bushing related failures which do not happen in the first
5 years of lifetime.
1.2

0.25

0.2

0.8

Probability

After 25 years, there is a sharp increase in failure rate

with age. This could be attributed to general aging of
components and end of life. Since a large portion of the
existing transformer fleet is in this age category they
pose a greater risk on the transmission network in terms
of MVA loss.

0.15
0.6
0.1
0.4

35%

0.05

0.2

30%

0
0

10

15

20

25%

Failures

Failure Rate

1996 2006, half of the units failed by the age of about

20 years, with a survival time of about 45 years.

25

30

35

40

45

Age (Years)
Survival

20%

PDF

Hazard

Figure 4: Failure distributions for severe and intermediate

bushing related failures (1996 2006)

15%
10%
5%

1.2

0%
Core

Main Tank
& Oil
System

Auxiliaries

Other

Component

Figure 3: Component affected in severe and intermediate

failures during the period 1996 2006

0.2

0.8
0.15
0.6
0.1
0.4
0.05

0.2

A breakdown into the major component affected in the

failures is shown in figure 3. Bushings, tap changers and
windings contribute to about 79% of the severe and
intermediate failures recorded in the past 11 years. Core
related failures just contribute to approximately 2%.
International trends in component related failures over
different study periods indicate similar behaviour in
terms of major contributors [4].

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Age (Years)
Survival

PDF

Hazard

Figure 5: Failure distributions for severe and intermediate tap

changer r elated failures (1996 2006)
1.2

0.25

0.2

0.8

Probability

The failure modes identified in [1] were classified as

failures due to lightning/switching surges, core
problems, tap changers, general aging and other causes.
That study revealed that tap changer failures were the
major contributor, followed by general aging and
lightning/switching surges. Ten years later in the current
reliability study, tap changer related failures are still the
most prominent.

Failure Rate

Tap
Changer

0.15
0.6
0.1

Failure Rate

Bushings

Probability

Windings

0.25

0.4
0.05

0.2

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Age (Years)

There has been considerable decrease in core related

failures from 17% to approximately 2%. In the 1997
study, the lightning/switching surge failure mode was

Survival

PDF

Hazard

Figure 6: Failure distributions for s evere and intermediate

winding related failures (1996 2006)

Bushing and tap changer related failures indicate similar

failure patterns in terms of an approximately constant
failure rate distribution in up to 25 years. Of the units
failing in the sample space period due to tap changer
related incidents, almost 50% of them were below the
age of 20 years at failure. Similarly half of the units that
failed due to bushing related incident were below the
age of 25 years at failure.
The pattern for winding related failures is interesting.
The behaviour of winding related failures clearly
indicates high failure rates in early life that could be
associated with design or manufacturing problems in
terms of its short circuit withstand capability. The
failure rate at 20 years is the same as that at 0 years,
which could also indicate the reliability of older
designs.
The analysis of winding related failures have further
been broken down into periods broken down into two
periods, 1996 1999 and 2000 2006 , to gain some
understanding regarding the failure patterns.
1.2

0.25

0.2

0.15
0.6
0.1

Failure Rate

Probability

0.8

period 2000 2006 has a similar pattern as for 1996 2006 failures, except it is more pronounced. This is still
under investigation.

3 CONDITION ASSESSMENT
Traditionally, Dissolved Gas Analysis (DGA) has been
used to assess the condition of Eskom transformers,
through periodic oil sampling and analysis. However,
this technique has several deficiencies, when an overall
and immediate assessment of all of the components in a
transformer, is required. DGA serves mainly to provide
information about the condition of the active part
(windings and tap changer) of the transformer. It can
also provide limited information about bushing
condition. The main drawback of periodic oil sampling
and analysis is the uncertainty between oil sample
interventions, which could be months or even years.
Eskom has embarked on the mass implementation of
on-line Dissolved Gas Monitoring devices, which
provide continuous feedback on transformer condition
and the trending of gasses associated with developing
internal faults. In the Transmission network, these
installed monitors are in continuous communication
with the National Grid Operator, who can then make
network operating decisions based on the data received
and judicious application of diagnostic tools, gas limits
and guidelines.

0.4
0.05

0.2

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Age (Years)
Survival

PDF

Hazard

Figure 7: Failure distributions for s evere and intermediate

winding related failures (1996 1999)
1.2

0.25

0.2

0.15
0.6
0.1

Failure Rate

Probability

0.8

0.4

Figure 9: Typical example of a continuous dissolved gas in oil

trend on a transformer

0.05

0.2

0
0

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Age (Years)

Survival

PDF

Hazard

Figure 8: Failure distributions for winding related failures

(2000 2006)

The period 1996 1999 has three distinct periods, high

failure rates in early life , followed by constant period
between 5 -10 years and increasing from 15 years. The

This method has already prevented several transformer

failures and subsequent unplanned outages, due to
internal faulting. In one instance, a newly refurbished
transformer was repaired on site and shortly returned to
service when a poor corona ring connection (the
source of gassing) was traced, and a far more serious
condition averted. In another instance, a poor bushinglead connection was also identified by trending the
gasses in the oil in the main tank, and a repair effected
on site. Such interventions directly change failure
statistics.

More research is being directed towards the analysis of

oil from tap changers to provide an insight into the
condition of the device, whose oil has a very different
characteristic to that from the main transformer tank.
Much thought is also being given to the use of chemical
tracers to gauge the amount of contact wear in tap
changers.
To further enhance the data being provided by DGA, a
transformer fleet assessment tool has been developed
and is being used by Eskom to ascertain the condition of
individual units, in addition to providing an overall
judgement of critical units. The system uses several
diagnostic references and guidelines, whereby
transformers are rated on a score basis, which also
grades the transformer in three colour-coded bands
(green is regarded as a good condition, yellow
indicating that further checks are becoming necessary
and a red indicator alerting to a serious condition
requiring immediate attention). This tool is allowing
the prioritisation of testing, maintenance and
replacement scheduling in an easily understood manner.

Figure 11 : Typical prediction of gassing source and location

inside a transformer

Apart from the aforementioned testing methods, Eskom

continues to use other techniques such as Frequency
Response Analysis (FRA). FRA is used to assess the
integrity of transformer windings. Eskom Transmission
employs the sweep frequency response analysis (SFRA)
technique to conduct the assessment.
The SFRA technique entails the injection of an
excitation signal (sinusoidal voltage at discrete
frequency steps) on one end of the winding terminal and
measuring its subsequent attenuation. The resulting
frequency domain ratio of the ouput/input signals
represents the characteristic frequency response of the
winding.

Figure 10 : Example screen of the transformer fleet assessment

tool

Once anomalies are identified, there are various test

methods that are then used to qualify what is being
presented by DGA results. One such method, most
recently been introduced at Eskom, is the location of the
gassing sources within the transformer, by a nonintrusive Acoustic Emission technique. The severity, as
well as triangulation to identify the most likely area of
the source - which may be temperature or discharge
related are predicted. Acting on this information, the
Utility can better decide on a plan of action.

Figure 12 : Typical star-connected HV winding FRA results,

showing all phases of the power transformer.

FRA is a comparative test, analysis entails the

comparison of traces with reference tests, sister units or
other with phases. Due to the sensitivity of the test, it is
imperative to ensure that the traces are well comparable
prior to diagnosis. This includes computation of
statistical tests such as difference and correlation
functions at various frequency bands. An example of an
SFRA trace is shown in figure 12. Variations of FRA
traces from one another at different frequency ranges
can be attributed to various anomalies or winding faults.

4 CONCLUSIONS
The combined failure rate for the severe and
intermediate failures is higher than the average failure
rate described in the CIGRE survey [4], and might be
attributed to the inherent reliability of older designs.
The reliability study performed on the 136 transmission
transformer failures indicates an increasing failure rate
with age, with periods of constant failure rates and
periods where wear out sets in.

[4]

A. Bossi, "An International Survey on Failures in Large Power

Transformers in Service Final Report of CIGRE Working
Group 12.05," CIGRE Electra, No. 88, pp. 22 -48, 1983.

Some units survived up to 45 years, with half of them

failing before the age of 20 years. Younger units are
failing at more or less the same rate as the older units
even though making up a smaller part of the population.
This behaviour could be indicative of design and
manufacturing problems in younger units.
A sharp increase in failure rate is observed after 25
years that could be attributed to general ageing of
components and end of life. A large portion of the
existing fleet is in this category, posing a greater risk on
the transmission network in terms of load loss.
Tap changers, bushings and winding related failures are
the largest contributors of failures. In a previous study
tap changer related failures were also the most
prominent, but there has been a considerable decrease in
core related incidents.
In the analysis of winding related failures, higher failure
rates are observed in early life that could be associated
with design or manufacturing problems. The failure rate
at 20 years is the same as that at 0 years, which could
also indicate the reliability of older designs.
As this is the first investigation of its nature conducted
on the Eskom transmission transformer failures, the
results of this lifespan study will help to align the
utilitys directives and initiatives in terms of operating,
maintenance, condition assessment and re-placement for
its aging transformer fleet.

5 ACKNOWLEDGMENT
The authors thank the Eskom Resources and Strategy
Department for its contribution.

6 REFERENCES
[1]

[2]
[3]

M. S. A. Minhas, P. J. De Klerk nd J. P. Reynders, "Failures in

Large Power Transformers," presented at the CIGRE
International Conference on Large High Voltage Systems, Cairo,
Egypt, 1997.
J. A. Lapworth, "Transformer Reliability Surveys" in Proc. 2006
CIGRE Conf., A2 -114.
W. Nelson, Applied Life Data Analysis, New York: John Wiley
and Sons, 1982.