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Perceptions,!vulnerability!and!adaptation!to!
climate!change!in!Ethiopia:!the!case!of!
smallholder!farmers!in!Sidama!

!
!
A!thesis!submitted!in!partial!fulfilment!of!the!
requirements!of!the!University!of!East!London!for!the!
degree!of!Doctor!of!Philosophy!!
!
!
!
Seyoum!Yunkura!Hameso!
!
!
!
!
!
!
July!2015!
Thesis citation: Hameso, S. (2015) Perceptions, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in
Ethiopia: the case of smallholder farmers in Sidama. Unpublished PhD Thesis. School of Social
Sciences, University of East London.

Abstract!
!
Climate! change! is! one! of! the! most! complex! problems! of! our! time! presenting!
unique! challenges! for! societies.! For! developing! countries! such! as! Ethiopia,! it!
complicates! existing! challenges! of! development.! The! problem! is! aggravated! for!
Sidamas! smallholder! farmers! who! depend! on! rain@fed! agriculture! to! produce!
coffee! for! global! market! and! Enset! for! subsistence.! Yet! farmers! understanding!
and! responses! to! climate! change! have! not! been! seriously! acknowledged! nor!
empirically!studied.!
!
This!doctoral!thesis!explores!perceptions,!vulnerability!and!adaptation!to!climate!
change.!More!specifically!it!seeks!to!explore,!document!and!analyse!perceptions!
of! climate! change,! examine! vulnerability! of! farmers! and! their! adaptation!
strategies! as! well! as! the! state! of! mainstreaming! climate! change! adaptation! to!
development!policy!in!Ethiopia.!!
!
To!achieve!these!aims,!the!study!deploys!comparative!case!study!research!design!
to! analyse! climate! change! in! three! agroecological! zones.! Both! qualitative! and!
quantitative! research! methods! are! used! for! data! collection! and! analysis.! A!
modified! form! of! sustainable! livelihoods! framework! is! deployed! as! analytical!
tool! to! investigate! vulnerability! context,! livelihood! assets,! institutions! enabling!
or!hindering!adaptation.!Fieldwork!research!took!place!from!January!2012!@!May!
2012! involving! a! survey! with! 120! farmers,! focus! group! discussion! with! 30!
farmers,!semi@structured!interviews!with!15!farmers!and!17!policy!makers.!!
!
Findings!reveal!increased!temperature,!high!rainfall!variability!and!inter@annual!
and! intra@seasonal! variation.! Farmers! clearly! perceived! climate! risks! based! on!
their! experience! and! knowledge! of! their! local! environment.! They! also! took! a!
number!of!measures!to!adapt!to!climate!change!within!their!capacity.!They!need!
informed! public! policy! and! research! to! help! create! enabling! conditions! for!
sustainable!livelihoods!and!increased!resilience.!
!

ii

Acknowledgements!
!
In!the!course!of!this!doctoral!study,!I!received!support!from!numerous!people.!I!
express! deep! gratitude! to! Drs.! Meera! Tiwari! and! Giorgia! Dona! for! their!
professional!guidance!and!support.!I!am!also!grateful!to!the!Graduate!School!and!
the! School! of! Social! Sciences! at! the! University! of! East! London,! Hawassa!
University! and! Norwegian! Agency! for! Development! Cooperation! (NORAD)! for!
their!kind!help!including!financial!support.!!
!
I! also! wish! to! thank! a! number! of! people! who! offered! assistance! of! one! sort! or!
another.! They! include! Steffen! Abele,! Amira! Ahmed,! Eric! Ansong,! Ayano! Baraso,!
Mihret! Barse,! Trygve! Berg,! Allan! Brimicombe,! Matewos! Dangiso,! Andrew!
Dorward,! Caroline! Dunmore,! Ngendahayo! Ezechias,! Argaw! Fantu,! Salvatore! Di!
Falco,!Berhanu!Gasa,!Demirew!Getachew,!Tesfaye!Gissilla,!Belay!Hameso,!Toloma!
Kawiso,!Bereket!Kebede,!Kathryn!Kraft,!Melkamu!Mamo,!Mauro!Ghirotti,!Maggie!
McPherson,!Natalia!Paszkiewicz,!Phil!Rees,!Zegeye!Shaga,!Woldemariam!Terega,!
Worku! Tesemma,! Admasu! Tsegaye,! Motuma! Tura,! Mengistu! Yunka,! Julia! Volz,!
Myles!Wickstead,!Tahir!Zaman!and!Manfred!Zeller.!Heartfelt!thanks!are!also!due!
to!family!and!friends!for!tremendous!understanding!and!unstinting!support.!
!
Finally,!I!wish!to!thank!all!the!people!who!participated!in!different!focus!group!
discussions,!semi@structured!interviews!and!surveys.!In!the!course!of!the!study,!I!
happen!to!visit!several!people!and!places!in!Sidama!whom!I!never!had!a!chance!
to! do! so! in! the! past! despite! being! born! and! spent! early! youth! in! the! area.! My!
deepest!gratitude!goes!to!all!the!people!who!shared!valuable!time!and!thoughts!
but! not! mentioned! by! name! due! to! reasons! of! anonymity! and! commitment! to!
research!ethics.!!
!

iii

Prologue:!Research!positionality!
!
My!position!in!this!study!resembles!what!Sultana!(2007)!referred!to!as!tentative!
insider!and!outsider!which!requires!further!reflexivity.!After!a!long!stay!in!UK,!
I! returned! home! in! 2008! with! cautious! optimism! and! solid! determination! to!
make!a!difference.!I!then!joined!Hawassa!University!with!joint!roles!of!teaching!
and! corporate! communications.! Part! of! my! responsibility! in! the! latter! role! was!
expanding! the! universitys! partnerships! with! international! education! and!
research!institutions.!!
!
In!2010,!an!opportunity!has!dawned!to!meet!a!group!of!distinguished!scientists!
studying! climate! change,! agricultural! economics! and! food! security.! The! cohort!
from!the!University!of!Hohenheim,!Germany,!conducted!a!seminar!from!7@8!April!
2010! in! ILRI@compound! (Addis! Ababa)! on! the! theme! of! Mitigation( of( and(
adaptation( to( climate( change( in( agriculture( in( Eastern( Africa:( research( priorities(
and( research( approaches.! The! seminar! was! followed! by! fact@finding! trips! to!
different!areas!in!southern!Ethiopia!including!Sidama.!The!prime!aim!of!the!field!
trips!was!to!select!suitable!sites!to!research!climate!change!and!its!implications!
on!small@scale!agriculture.!I!joined!the!cohort!on!their!visit!to!different!parts!of!
the! region.! Time! and! again,! I! observed! farmers! in! deep! rural! areas! speaking!
about!troubling!changed!times!referring!to!climate!change.!With!a!curiosity!of!a!
scholar!who,!for!the!last!two!decades,!focused!on!development!themes!with!close!
understanding!of!the!socio@political!and!economic!context!of!Sidama,!I!decided!to!
take!the!inquiry!a!step!further!by!examining!the!evidence.!The!rekindled!interest!
eventually!lent!inspiration!for!this!PhD!research!project!when!financial!support!
became!available!later!in!the!year.!!
!
In!sum,!both!the!fieldwork!phase!and!the!overall!research!process!proved!to!be!
enriching! experience! which! enabled! me! to! meet! many! people! from! different!
walks! of! life! who! retrieved! their! experiences! and! intimated! their! stories! that!
need! documenting! and! analysing.! This! is! the! context! in! which! the! research!
developed.!

iv

Table!of!contents!
Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii!
Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... iii!
Prologue:!Research!positionality .................................................................................. iv!
Table!of!contents ................................................................................................................v!
List!of!abbreviations!&!acronyms ................................................................................ vii!
List!of!figures ..................................................................................................................... ix!
List!of!tables ....................................................................................................................... ix!
List!of!appendices ...............................................................................................................x!
!
Chapter!One:!General!background!and!research!context ..........................................1!
1.1!Introduction ................................................................................................................ 1!
1.2!Scope!&!significance!of!the!study,!research!objective!and!questions .................... 7!
1.3!Background!to!Sidama ............................................................................................. 14!
1.4!Background!to!Ethiopia!and!climate!change!policies ........................................... 22!
1.5!Thesis!outline ........................................................................................................... 32!
!
Chapter!2:!Perception,!vulnerability!and!adaptation!to!climate ............................35!
2.1!Introduction .............................................................................................................. 35!
2.2!Perceptions!about!climate!change .......................................................................... 39!
2.3!Vulnerability!to!climate!change .............................................................................. 41!
2.4!Adaptation!to!climate!change .................................................................................. 48!
2.5!Climate!change!and!development ........................................................................... 56!
2.6!Summary ................................................................................................................... 64!
!
Chapter!3:!Methodology!and!analytical!framework ..................................................66!
3.1!Research!design!and!site!selection ......................................................................... 66!
3.2!Sampling,!data!collection!and!analysis ................................................................... 72!
3.3!Ethical!issues!and!practical!challenges .................................................................. 81!
3.4!Analytical!framework:!Sustainable!livelihoods ..................................................... 87!
3.5!Summary ................................................................................................................... 98!
!
Chapter!4:!Results!&!discussion:!Socioeconomic!&!institutional!context .............99!
4.1!Introduction .............................................................................................................. 99!
4.2!Socio@economic!characteristics!and!vulnerability!context ................................... 99!
4.3!Livelihood!assets!and!options ............................................................................... 103!
4.4!Structures!and!processes....................................................................................... 113!
4.5!Summary ................................................................................................................. 119!
!
Chapter!5:!Results!&!discussion:!Perceptions!of!climate!change .........................121!
5.1!Introduction ............................................................................................................ 121!
5.2!Observed!climate .................................................................................................... 121!
5.3!Perceptions!of!climate!change!by!farmers ........................................................... 130!
5.4!Perceptions!of!climate!change!by!policy!makers................................................. 148!
5.5!Summary ................................................................................................................. 153!
!
Chapter!6:!Results!&!discussion:!Vulnerability!to!climate!change .......................154!
6.1.!Introduction ........................................................................................................... 154!
6.2!Climatic!stressors!and!impacts ............................................................................. 154!
6.3!Vulnerability!to!climate!change ............................................................................ 159!
6.4!Highly!vulnerable!groups!and!systems ................................................................ 180!
6.5!Summary ................................................................................................................. 186!
!

Chapter!7:!Results!&!discussion:!Adaptation!to!climate!change ...........................187!
7.1.!Introduction ........................................................................................................... 187!
7.2!Coping!mechanisms!and!adaptation!strategies ................................................... 187!
7.3!Factors!enabling!and/or!constraining!adaptation .............................................. 205!
7.4!Mainstreaming!climate!change!to!development!policy ...................................... 208!
7.5!Opportunities!and!benefits!from!climate!change ................................................ 219!
7.6!Summary ................................................................................................................. 223!
!
Chapter!8:!Conclusion!and!recommendations .........................................................224!
8.1!Conclusion............................................................................................................... 224!
8.2!Recommendations ................................................................................................. 230!
8.3!Contributions!of!the!study ..................................................................................... 237!
8.4!Limitations!of!the!study ......................................................................................... 240!
8.5!Future!research ...................................................................................................... 241!
!
Bibliography ....................................................................................................................243!
!
Appendices ......................................................................................................................274!
!
!

vi

List!of!abbreviations!&!acronyms!!
!
ADLI!
AEZ!
AfDB!
ASAP!
ATA!
Birr!
CAQDAS!
CDM!
CO2!
CoP!
CRGE!
CSA!
DCG!
DFID!
EEA!
EIAR!
ENSO!
EPA!
EPRDF!
ESRC!
EU!
FAO!
FGD!
GCMs!
GDP!
GEF!
GERD!
GHGs!
GPS!
GoE!
GTP!
HU!
HYVs!
IDS!
IFAD!
IFPRI!
IIED!
ILRI!
IMF!
IPCC!
ITCZ!
LDCs!
masl!
MDGs!
MFIs!
MoARD!
MoEF!
MoFED!
MoH!
MoWE!

Agriculture!Development!Led!Industrialization!(Ethiopia)!
Agroecological!Zone!
African!Development!Bank!
Adaptation!for!Smallholder!Agriculture!Programme,!IFAD!
Agricultural!Transformation!Agency!(Ethiopia)!
Ethiopian!Birr,!also!ETB!
Computer!Assisted!Qualitative!Data!Analysis!Software!
Clean!Development!Mechanism,!Kyoto!Protocol!
Carbon!dioxide,!the!most!important!greenhouse!gas!
Conference!of!the!Parties,!annual!summit!of!UNFCCC!
Climate!Resilient!Green!Economy!(Ethiopia)!
Central!Statistical!Authority!(Ethiopia)!
Drylands!Coordination!Group!(Africa)!
Department!for!International!Development!(UK)!
Ethiopian!Economics!Association!
Ethiopian!Institute!of!Agricultural!Research!
El!Nio!Southern!Oscillation!
Environmental!Protection!Agency!(Ethiopia)!
Ethiopian!Peoples!Revolutionary!Democratic!Front!
Economic!and!Social!Research!Council!(United!Kingdom)!
European!Union!
Food!and!Agriculture!Organization!(United!Nations)!
Focus!group!discussion!
General!Circulation!Models!
Gross!Domestic!Product!
Global!Environment!Facility!
Grand!Ethiopian!Renaissance!Dam!
Greenhouse!gases!(mainly!CO2,!N2O,!and!methane)!
Global!Positioning!System!!
Government!of!Ethiopia!
Growth!and!Transformation!Plan!!
Hawassa!University!
High!Yield!Varieties!(crops),!also!hybrid!seeds!
Institute!of!Development!Studies!
International!Fund!for!Agricultural!Development!
International!Food!Policy!Research!Institute!
International!Institute!for!Environment!and!Development!
International!Livestock!Research!Institute!
International!Monetary!Fund!
Intergovernmental!Panel!on!Climate!Change!
Inter@Tropical!Convergence!Zone!
Least!Developed!Countries!
Metres!above!sea!level!
Millennium!Development!Goals!
Microfinance!Institutions!
Ministry!of!Agriculture!and!Rural!Development!(Ethiopia)!
Ministry!of!Environment!and!Forests!(Ethiopia)!
Ministry!of!Finance!and!Economic!Development!(Ethiopia)!
Ministry!of!Health!(Ethiopia)!
Ministry!of!Water!and!Energy!(Ethiopia)!

vii

N2O!
NAMA!
NAPA!
NGO!
NMA!
NORAD!
OECD!
PASDEP!
PSNP!
REDD+!
SHFs!
SIDA!
SLF!
SLUF!
SNNPRS!
SPSS!
SOS!Sahel!
SSA!
TNAs!
UEL!
UNDP!
UNEP!
UNFCCC!
USAID!
USD!
WB!
WHO!
WMO!
WVE!

Nitrous!oxide,!a!greenhouse!gas!
Nationally!Appropriate!Mitigation!Action!
National!Adaptation!Programme!of!Action!
Non@governmental!organisation!
National!Metrological!Agency!(Ethiopia)!
Norwegian!Agency!for!Development!Cooperation!
Organisation!for!Economic!Co@operation!and!Development!
Plan!for!Accelerated!and!Sustained!Development!to!End!Poverty!
Productive!Safety!Net!Programme!
Reducing!Emissions!from!Deforestation!and!Forest!Degradation!
Smallholder!farmers!!
Swedish!International!Development!Agency!
Sustainable!Livelihood!Framework!
Sustainable!Land!Use!Forum!(Ethiopia)!
Southern!Nations!&!Nationalities!Peoples!Regional!State!
Statistical!Package!for!the!Social!Sciences!
Save!Our!Souls!Sahel!(Ethiopia)!
Sub@Saharan!Africa!
Technology!Needs!Assessments!
University!of!East!London!
United!Nations!Development!Programme!
United!Nations!Environment!Programme!
United!Nations!Framework!Convention!on!Climate!Change!
United!States!Agency!for!International!Development!
United!States!Dollars!
World!Bank!
World!Health!Organisation!
World!Meteorological!Organization!
World!Vision!Ethiopia!

!
!

viii

List!of!figures!
FIGURE!1:!LOCATION!OF!SIDAMA!IN!ETHIOPIA!..................................................................................................................!15!
FIGURE!2:!STUDY!SITES!AND!WEATHER!STATIONS!............................................................................................................!67!
FIGURE!3:!XEXICHA!IN!ADMINISTRATIVE!MAP!OF!HULA!DISTRICT!..................................................................................!69!
FIGURE!4:!AWAADA!IN!ADMINISTRATIVE!MAP!OF!DALE!DISTRICT!.................................................................................!70!
FIGURE!5:!JARA!IN!ADMINISTRATIVE!MAP!OF!HAWASSA!ZURIA!DISTRICT!.....................................................................!71!
FIGURE!6:!SUSTAINABLE!LIVELIHOOD!FRAMEWORK!.........................................................................................................!88!
FIGURE!7:!AVERAGE!HOUSEHOLD!INCOME!........................................................................................................................!102!
FIGURE!8:!AVERAGE!HOUSEHOLD!EXPENDITURE!.............................................................................................................!103!
FIGURE!9:!ACCESS!TO!LIVELIHOOD!ASSETS!.......................................................................................................................!104!
FIGURE!10:!LIVELIHOOD!ACTIVITY!PRIORITY!...................................................................................................................!109!
FIGURE!11:!LAND!HELD!AND!CULTIVATED!.......................................................................................................................!110!
FIGURE!12:!SOURCES!OF!CREDIT/LOAN!............................................................................................................................!112!
FIGURE!13:!BARRIERS!TO!SEEKING!CREDIT!......................................................................................................................!112!
FIGURE!14:!TEMPERATURE!DATA!......................................................................................................................................!123!
FIGURE!15:!SEASONAL!TEMPERATURE,!TREND!...............................................................................................................!125!
FIGURE!16:!SNNP!REGIONAL!AVERAGE!ANNUAL!MINIMUM!TEMPERATURE!..............................................................!126!
FIGURE!17:!RAINFALL!DATA!...............................................................................................................................................!126!
FIGURE!18:!SEASONAL!RAINFALL!TREND!(CUMULATIVE!AVERAGE!1991@2011)!....................................................!128!
FIGURE!19:!INFORMATION!SOURCES!.................................................................................................................................!130!
FIGURE!20:!OVERALL!PERCEPTION!OF!CLIMATE!CHANGE!..............................................................................................!131!
FIGURE!21:!ARID!CONDITIONS!IN!HIGHLAND!XEXICHA!...................................................................................................!136!
FIGURE!22:!SPREAD!OF!MOSQUITOES!................................................................................................................................!137!
FIGURE!23:!RAINFALL!AMOUNT!AND!WATER!AVAILABILITY!.........................................................................................!156!
FIGURE!24:!IMPACT!OF!CLIMATE!CHANGE!ON!IMPORTANT!CROPS!AND!PLANTS!.........................................................!157!
FIGURE!25:!OBSERVED!TREND!FOR!MAJOR!CROPS/PLANTS!...........................................................................................!158!
FIGURE!26:!OPEN!FIELD!RURAL!MARKET!IN!HULA!..........................................................................................................!165!
FIGURE!27:!DISTRIBUTION!OF!MICROFINANCE!INSTITUTIONS!IN!ETHIOPIA!...............................................................!166!
FIGURE!28:!ROAD!CONDITIONS!NEAR!JARA!AREA!............................................................................................................!167!
FIGURE!29:!PERCENTAGE!OF!PARTICIPANTS!INVOLVED!IN!DISPUTES!..........................................................................!170!
FIGURE!30:!DRY!WELL!IN!CLOSE!PROXIMITY!TO!EUCALYPTUS!PLANTATION!...............................................................!177!
FIGURE!31:!LAND!DEGRADATION!&!FLOODING!...............................................................................................................!178!
FIGURE!32:!ROAD!FORMED!BY!GULLY!EROSION!...............................................................................................................!178!
FIGURE!33:!FLOODED!PLAINS!IN!JARA!...............................................................................................................................!179!
FIGURE!34:!GULLY!EROSION!NEAR!MAQBASA!..................................................................................................................!179!
FIGURE!35:!FARMING!METHODS!AND!TOOLS!....................................................................................................................!185!
FIGURE!36:!COPING!MECHANISMS!.....................................................................................................................................!188!
FIGURE!37:!LOCAL!CARPENTRY!USING!BAMBOO!IN!XEXICHA!........................................................................................!193!
FIGURE!38:!APPLICATION!OF!FERTILISER!BY!SMALLHOLDER!FARMERS!.......................................................................!195!
FIGURE!39:!LOCAL!CROP!STORAGE!UNITS!.........................................................................................................................!202!
FIGURE!40:!PURCHASE!OF!INPUTS!.....................................................................................................................................!203!

List!of!tables!
TABLE!1:!CLIMATE!CHANGE!PROJECTIONS!FOR!ETHIOPIA!...............................................................................................!30!
TABLE!2:!TIMELINE!IN!GLOBAL!ENVIRONMENT@DEVELOPMENT!DISCOURSE!&!POLICY!...............................................!59!
TABLE!3:!AGROECOLOGICAL!CHARACTERISTICS!OF!RESEARCH!SITES!.............................................................................!68!
TABLE!4:!RESEARCH!OBJECTIVES,!QUESTIONS!AND!DATA!SOURCES!...............................................................................!73!
TABLE!5:!SOCIOECONOMIC!SUMMARY!OF!HOUSEHOLD!SURVEY!(STATISTICS)!............................................................!100!
TABLE!6:!ACCESS!TO!LIVELIHOOD!ASSETS!BY!HOUSEHOLDS!(RATING)!........................................................................!105!
TABLE!7:!STATION!TEMPERATURE!DATA!.........................................................................................................................!122!
TABLE!8:!FARMERS!PERCEPTIONS!ABOUT!CLIMATE!CHANGE!.......................................................................................!132!
TABLE!9:!SEASONAL!CALENDAR!IN!SIDAMA!MIDLANDS!..................................................................................................!135!
TABLE!10:!OBSERVED!CHANGES!IN!LIVELIHOOD!CONDITIONS!......................................................................................!154!
TABLE!11:!SUMMARIZED!MULTI@DIMENSIONAL!INDICATORS!OF!VULNERABILITY!.....................................................!159!
TABLE!12:!SURVEY!DATA!ON!HEALTH!EXPERIENCE!........................................................................................................!172!

ix

TABLE!13:!GENDER!AND!VULNERABILITY!TO!CLIMATE!CHANGE!...................................................................................!182!
TABLE!14:!CLIMATE!CHANGE!RESPONSE!FRAMEWORK!!COPING!AND!ADAPTATION!................................................!189!
TABLE!15:!ADAPTATION!CATEGORIES!AND!STRATEGIES!................................................................................................!191!

List!of!appendices!
APPENDIX!1:!SIDAMA!ADMINISTRATIVE!DIVISIONS,!POPULATION!AND!AREA!(2011)!..............................................!274!
APPENDIX!2:!RELEVANT!LEGISLATION!ON!ENVIRONMENTAL!PROTECTION!IN!ETHIOPIA!.........................................!275!
APPENDIX!3:!QUALITATIVE!!SEMI@STRUCTURED!INTERVIEW!QUESTIONS!.................................................................!275!
APPENDIX!4:!QUANTITATIVE!!HOUSEHOLD!SURVEY!QUESTIONS!................................................................................!278!