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Introduction ......................................................................................................................................................3
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Share of Indian Short Term Market .................................................................................................................9
Table 2: Percentage of Time Instances of Congestion Occurred at the Exchanges .......................................................9
Table 3: monthly deficit in energy ...............................................................................................................................13
Table 4: Price Bids for the Supply and Demand of Electricity ......................................................................................16
Table 5: Unconstrained inter regional Flows ...............................................................................................................17
Table 6: Case I Corridor between Zone 2 and Zone 3 constrained to 20 MWh...........................................................18
Table 7: Case 1 Inter regional Flows ............................................................................................................................19
Table 8: MCP-MCV for Different Regions ....................................................................................................................20
Table 9: Flow between different regions .....................................................................................................................21
Table 10: Congestion fund contribution ......................................................................................................................21
Table 11: MCP and new settlement price....................................................................................................................22
Table 12: Pay In and Pay out for sellers and buyers .................................................................................................... 23
Table 13: MCP & MCV values ......................................................................................................................................23
Table 14: Flow between different regions ...................................................................................................................23
Table 15: Congestion fund contribution ......................................................................................................................24
Table 16: MCP and new settlement price....................................................................................................................25
The magnitude of these risks depends largely upon the pricing and settlement arrangement in the market and how
closely these rules are related to congestion management.
Both the above incentivize participants to engage in bidding which is not reflective of the marginal cost. The
bidders might bid as must run stations i.e. a very low bid or extremely high bid as they anticipate non dispatch
due to congestion. Both the bidding patterns would result in disorderly bidding and therefore, skewed-pricing
leading to inefficiency.
Skewed-pricing may distort the investment decisions for both supply and demand side. This includes decisions on
technology, location and timing. In long run, this can weaken the economic signals that support efficient locational
investment decisions by generators and large industrial and commercial users. Locational signals assume greater
importance in current Indian context of ambitious capacity augmentation plans.
In addition to affecting the behavior of the market participants, congestion affects the market as a whole. First, it
increases the overall cost of electricity supply and secondly it can potentially compromise the objective to promote
efficient investment in the sector. It also leads to progressive loss of confidence of the participants at exchange.
Dispatch.
A suitable congestion management regime needs to be devised for physical and operational security of the power
systems. Moreover, Congestion Management Regime has important implication for spot prices and bidding
incentives for market participants. In the long run, the manner in which a market manages congestion affects the
investment decision of new generators and consumers etc.
Some of the common methods used for handling congestion in electricity markets are:
Redispatching.
Market Splitting.
Redispatching
In case of re-dispatch the system operator, issues suitable dispatch instructions to costly electricity suppliers
located in the area downstream of the congested corridor, to meet the demand in the area. This method has an
underlying assumption that on instructions surplus generation capacity is ready to be dispatched. In Indian context
is not always true, as generating stations and load distribution is skewed. Further, distribution licensees may prefer
load shedding to buying costly power in view of the financial constraints and non-obligated supply agreements
with customers. Therefore, re-dispatch is not suitable in Indian context.
Explicit Auction
Coordinated auction of transmission capacity with generation also involves fundamental changes in market design
and complex policy issues on whether transmission capacity (rights) need to be auctioned or allocated on basis
needs to be addressed. Hence, this method is also not appropriate in the current context of power market
operation.
5
Bilateral
Exchange
24.81
Total Electricity
Generated (BU)
Total
5.79
30.6
750
18.92%
0.77%
It is evident from the above that the total quantum of power traded through exchange forms a very small
percentage of the overall generation. In addition, the instances of congestion are tabulated below, for the period
from July 09 to April10.
S. No.
Month
Average
Congestion (as
percentage of
time during the
month)
Jul-09
54%
NR
5,143
4,399
744
Aug-09
58%
NR
7,736
5,513
2,223
Sep-09
48%
NR
4,246
3,726
520
Oct-09
19%
NR
4,246
3,726
520
Nov-09
15%
NR
4,670
3,976
694
Dec-09
27%
NR
4,519
2,984
1,535
Zone
Average
Downstream
Price
(Rs./MWh)
Average
Upstream Price
(Rs./MWh)
Difference
(Rs./MWh)
Jan-10
24%
NR, S2
4,870
3,349
1,520
Feb-10
50%
SR
4,389
3,165
1,224
Mar-10
60%
SR
6,800
4,623
2,178
10
Apr-10
26%
SR
7,325
6,062
1,263
It can be seen from the table that the congestion is transitory in nature and moves from NR to SR. In addition, it is
also dynamic with quantum of congestion varying over the year. The occurrence of congestion not only leads to
curtailment on the volumes of electricity transacted through exchanges (in the year 2009, the curtailment led to
about 17% loss or about 0.99 Billion Units) reducing the liquidity and leads to price rise.
The periods of congestion and quantum of curtailment during the month of July 2009 at PXIL is shown in figure 3
and figure 4 below.
0%
0
10
20
30
60%
40%
20%
0%
0
10
15
20
25
30
The periods of higher congestion coincided with periods of higher prices owing to higher market demand, which
further worsened the situation. This result in the quantum of congestion revenues increasing very rapidly based on
both the price difference as well as the number of instances. Figure 5 depicts the monthly average price difference
in the two zones after market splitting, average monthly percentage of time congestion occurred and congestion
revenue paid for the month.
10
Price
4,500
4,000
3,500
Congestion Revenue
3,000
70%
60%
50%
2,500
40%
2,000
30%
1,500
20%
1,000
10%
500
0
May-09
0%
Jul-09
Aug-09
Mar-10 May-10
FIGURE 3: AVERAGE MONTHLY CONGESTION PERIOD, AVERAGE DIFFERENCE PRICE BETWEEN TWO ZONES AND CONGESTION REVENUE PAID
Owing to continuous congestion during the first half of the month, the total liquidity in the market
decreased, indicating the lack of confidence amongst participants about their ability to buy power
through exchanges. This is also evident from the reduced percentage curtailment during the latter half of
the month.
The average price difference decreased during initial period. Participants take it into their stride by
increasing the prices, which manifested as a subsequent increase in the price difference during the
balance period of the month.
The congestion revenue follows not only the duration of congestion but also the price difference between
the two areas. Once the bidders resort to disorderly bidding, the congestion revenue increases
irrespective of the market liquidity. Moreover, the congestion rents become higher even when the
congestion decreases.
In order to analyze the price signal emanating from the market, the intraday market cleared price for the month of
July 2009 & August 2009 is shown in figure below.
11
Price Rs./MWh
10000
8000
10-Jul-09
6000
11-Jul-09
4000
13-Jul-09
2000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the Day
FIGURE 4: MCP FOR THE MONTH OF JULY 2009 IN THE DEFICIT ZONE
Price Rs./MWh
15000
6-Aug-09
10000
10-Aug-09
11-Aug-09
5000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Hour of the Day
FIGURE 5: MCP IN THE DEFICIT ZONE FOR AUGUST 2009
There exists no particular pattern in the emanating price signal and the behavior has a large random
component
The only reason in day-to-day variation in price could be disorderly bidding by participants in
anticipation of expected congestion & priority in allocation.
12
14000
Jul-09
12000
Aug-09
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Periods of Congestion
FIGURE 6: PRICE SIGNAL DURING PERIODS OF SAME MONTHLY AVERAGE CONGESTION
As outlined above there exists no particular pattern in the cleared prices. The regional deficits for the above
periods are tabulated below:
Mar 2010
Feb 2010
July 2009
Aug 2009
Sep 2009
NR (%)
WR (%)
SR (%)
ER (%)
NER (%)
-11.4
-9.3
-11.0
-14.7
-13.0
-16.4
-16.8
-8.8
-12.6
-11.6
-9.4
-6.2
-5.8
-6.3
-5.2
-6.3
-2.9
-4
-5.2
-4.0
-10.8
-8.8
-12.9
-13.8
-12.5
All India
(%)
-11.9
-10.2
-8.3
-10.9
-9.6
From the above, it is apparent that there exists a weak correlation between the price signal and the actual deficit
in power supply position or the congestion in the physical infrastructure. Moreover, the price signal is also not an
indicator of the nature of the deficit in the system. With the government promoting investments in generation of
electricity across India to cater to regional imbalances and also planning to increase inter- regional capacity for
flow of power in the national grid, the current price signal cannot be relied upon to assist investment planning in
13
Settlement price for buyers in deficit market k = P (Settlement for Buyer, Deficit (k)) =
"
"
+
+
. !
14
Zone 1 to Zone 2
Zone 2 to Zone 3
Zone 2 to Zone 4
Zone 3 to Zone 4
Zone 4 to Zone 1
15
Generator
G2
Load B
Zone
1
Zone
2
Zone
4
Zone
3
Generator
Generator
G4
Load D
Generator
G3
Load C
Demand
Price
Aggregated
Demand,
MWh
G1
G2
G3
Aggregated
Supply,
MWh
G4
1.4
200
230
220
200
150
1000
1.6
200
230
220
200
150
1000
1.8
200
230
220
180
150
980
200
200
175
192
220
170
150
907
213
75
200
488
2.2
149
153
163
150
100
715
227
200
75
213
715
2.4
141
115
147
150
100
653
240
218
75
225
758
2.6
129
77
110
100
100
516
253
237
75
235
800
2.8
119
38
73
80
50
360
267
255
150
250
922
111
37
60
50
258
280
273
150
250
953
3.2
103
40
50
193
280
292
150
250
972
3.4
20
50
70
280
310
150
250
990
3.6
50
50
280
310
150
250
990
3.8
50
50
280
310
150
250
990
The colors on the bids indicate the geographical zone. The Market Cleared Volume (MCV) and Market Cleared
Price (MCP) for the uncongested case are worked out as per the figure below.
16
The MCP and MCV for the unconstrained market are 715 M
MWh
h and Rs. 2.2 respectively. The schedules and flows
are as indicated below.
Zone 1, G1 = 227 MWh, A = 149 MWh and E = 100 MWh. Net inter regional inflow of 22 MWh
Zone 2, G2 = 200 MWh, B = 153 MWh. Net inter regional outflow of 47 MWh
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 1
22
Zone 2
-47
Zone 3
47
41
-22
-41
Zone 4
The flow scheduling has been done on PQT priority basis wherein the priority is decided based on Price.
Price
Case I: Let us assume that there is congestion on the corridor between Zone 3 to Zone 2 and only 20MWh can flow
on it. Between Zone 4 and Zone 3, no flow is allowed
allowed.
17
Aggregated Aggregated
Demand 1, Demand 2,
MWh
MWh G1
Demand
Price
Aggregated Aggregated
Supply 1, Supply 2,
MWh
MWh,
Supply
G2
G3
G4
0.01
200
230
220
200
150
800
220
20
20
1.4
200
230
220
200
150
800
220
20
1.6
200
230
220
200
150
800
220
20
1.8
200
230
220
180
150
780
220
200
200
20
175
192
220
170
150
707
220
213
75
200
413
95
2.2
149
153
220
150
100
572
220
227
200
75
213
640
95
2.4
141
115
200
150
100
526
200
240
218
75
225
683
95
2.6
129
77
180
100
100
426
180
253
237
75
235
725
95
2.8
119
38
180
80
50
307
180
267
255
140
250
772
160
111
180
60
50
241
180
280
273
140
250
803
160
3.2
103
160
40
50
213
160
280
292
140
250
822
160
3.4
100
20
50
90
100
280
310
140
250
840
160
3.6
100
50
70
100
280
310
140
250
840
160
3.8
100
50
70
100
280
310
140
250
840
160
20
20
280
310
140
250
840
160
18
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 3
Zone 4
20
-20
In case of the classical market splitting method, the congestion revenue would have been calculated as per
following equation.
'(
' )* = ', ', ' - ('. '/' - ' - ,' ".
However, in the proposed method, all the buyers in the region would pay the weighted average cost of power for
the region. Therefore the buyers would pay,
0123 31 456782 =
The sellers would be paid as per the MCP of their respective markets. For the scheduling part, it would be
prioritized with priority of price being the highest followed by quantity. However, equitable and equal methods of
scheduling can also be used.
It is evident from the above case that the locational price signal is intact but the cost of power purchase has been
brought down.
Though the above methods brings down the price of the power in the deficit region keeping the locational signal
intact, it might lead to very high bidding by participants for prioritized scheduling, resulting into price increase.
Moreover, only one of the affected participants is being benefitted. In order to overcome this disadvantage and be
non-partisan to the participants, alternative 2 is proposed.
Alternative 2
In this case, the sellers as well as the buyers would be obligated with the weighted average charges. The power
flow on the congested corridor would be charged at the midpoint of the two MCPs. Therefore,
0123 31 456782 EF G7HEIE3 JK8B73 =
Example 2
This example is for multiple surplus and multiple deficit regions.
Number of surplus regions = 2
Number of deficit regions = 3
This is the price volume data for all regions.
SR1
SR2
DR1
DR2
DR3
MCP(Rs.)
MCV(MW)
250
360
70
105
55
20
To/from
SR1
SR2
DR1
20
10
DR2
30
25
DR3
25
Total Flow = 50 MW
Total Flow = 60 MW
Surplus Region 2
Surplus Region 1
20MW
10MW
25MW
25 MW
30MW
Total congestion Fund
Deficit Region 1
Deficit Region 2
Deficit Region 3
80
150
20
75
100
425
21
(X + Y)
(Z + X)
+ W
W
W
= X. [\
! + Z
Z + X
+ W
W
W
= \. W]
(X + Y)
(! + Y)
+ W!
W
W
= \. ]X
! + ]
W
= Y. ]
SR1
SR2
DR1
DR2
DR3
3.46
5.27
6.29
6.93
8.09
MCP(in Rs)
22
SR1
SR2
DR1
DR2
DR3
Rs(in thousands)
Buyer
600
1500
440
727.5
445
3712.5
Seller
865
1897.5
280
400
270
3712.5
TABLE 12: Pay In and Pay out for sellers and buyers
We can see that the buyers and sellers have equal share from the congestion fund.
Example 3
This example is for multiple surplus and multiple deficit regions.
Number of surplus regions = 1
Number of deficit regions = 3
This is the price volume data for all regions.
SR1
DR1
DR2
DR3
MCP(Rs.)
4.5
MCV(MW)
475
65
80
125
To/from
SR1
DR1
10
DR2
40
DR3
25
23
Deficit Region 1
40MW
25MW
Deficit Region 2
Deficit Region 3
10
80
12.5
102.5
! + [
W
= [. ]WX
(\ + [)
W
= !. !
24
[. ! + [
W
= [. [!
SR1
DR1
DR2
DR3
4.108
4.923
5.5
4.45
MCP(in Rs)
4.5
This method has been adopted in Nordic market in conjunction with re-dispatch during operational phase.
Moreover, counter trade provide means for hedging the price risk arising out of congestion in the Nordic
market. It is also assumed that surplus supply is available to be dispatched at a higher cost
Prior to establishment of Nordpool, trading of electricity between the countries was enabled through Nordel,
an organization set up in the 1960s to promote cooperation amongst the largest electricity producers in each
country. Nordel was based on the principle that each country would build enough generating capacity to be
self-sufficient. Trading was meant to achieve optimal dispatch of a larger system and investment in
interconnection was generally based on net exports but on expected savings from pooling available
generation capacity. The countries exchanged information about their marginal cost of production. When
there was a difference, trading took place, at a price, which would ideally be average of the two marginal
costs. The cost plus approach led to over investment and poor return on equity but prior to introduction of
competition, the operating efficiencies of the utilities were high.
25
The classical method of market splitting has its limitation when applied on a larger scale
Owing to uneven spatial distribution of load centers and generation plants in large zones, there exists a
requirement of energy transport across large distances and therefore, exists a possibility of multiple price
levels. Secondly, there exists a diverse generation mix in terms of technology and storage capabilities (Hydro
Power) that cause time and price dependent energy flows. A priori declaration of the zones in case of
congestion forces one-price signal for the zone. Therefore, in order to have a better correlation between price
signal and congestion, the number of zones needs to be increased leading to higher complexities.
Historically, planning in Indian case was done at regional basis. Currently, we operate in five regional grids
spread over 28 States & 6 Union Territories leading to multiple layers of losses. Owing to heterogeneity across
different regions and sub-regions (due to multiple states), the impact of less number of bid areas gets
pronounced. Currently, we have ten bid zones, which need to be increased to fall in line with the geographical
boundaries of STUs. Even further, for some of the larger states there could be multiple bidding areas.
The total short-term market in India is roughly 8% of the total generation. Even out of total short term market,
the Day Ahead Market through exchanges contributes only about 19%.
The entire inter regional capacity lies with the Nordic market. Even the reservations for the long term
players have been taken back since early 2000
We follow allocation of transmission corridors and the prioritization is for long-term users, followed by
medium term users and finally short-term users. Even for short-term users, the capacity left after short-term
26
The geographical division of the bid areas has been done based on the operating regime of the grid. Each of
the five regional grids has been divided into two bid zones. Therefore, currently we have multiple transmission
operators in each bid areas.
Assumptions:
As per the CERC Staff Paper on Developing a Common Platform for trading, it was assumed that there
are practically nil instances of congestion. However, the instances of congestion are transitory, dynamic
and overlap with the periods of high demand. The assumption, therefore, does hold in the current
context.
Part adoption of principles i.e. market splitting along ten bidding zones which are not in sync with the lines of
control boundaries of system operation and short term market constituting a very small fraction of the market,
clubbed with some of the assumptions not holding good in the current scenario, has led to the following effects:
Introduces price risk as well as quantity risk for the participants at exchanges
Incentivizes the participants at the exchange towards disorderly bidding, thereby increasing the price of
electricity
The congestion revenue is not only a function of instances of congestion but also of the discovered price
Progressive loss of confidence of the participants at the exchanges to buy short term power
In the long run, present mechanism might not provide the right investment signals with respect to the
location as well as type of generation.
Buyers as well as sellers at the exchanges are not content owing to sellers being paid less and buyers
being charged high
In view of the above, we propose to adopt a new congestion management regime to better suit the current
context. We propose to adopt the Alternative 2, for which the applicability and advantages are mentioned
below.
In the proposed modified market splitting method, wherein the sellers as well as the buyers would be
paid/charged based on the weighted average cost of electricity. The following issues have been brought out
in the preceding sections.
27
Currently, participants at exchange constitute only 0.77% of the total generation in India.
In the absence of ex ante information about the probability of congestion, participants are not in a
position to plan their bids.
There exists an arbitrage between the corridor allocations amongst the short-term players, medium and
long-term players.
There are no long-term products available to plug the arbitrage between the short-term markets.
Advantages:
Would reduce the cost of procurement of power for buyers, thereby reducing their financial burden. The
purchase cost of electricity being passed through in tariff would lead to some reduction in retail cost of
electricity
Reduce the disorderly bidding and therefore, reduce inefficiencies in price discovery
Capable of splitting the markets into n sub markets. Moreover, with development of electricity markets,
the sub market splitting would be required to match the SLDC boundaries
References:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Power Exchange Implementation in India and Congestion Management in Multi Exchange Scenario S K
Soonee & others 2009
5.
6.
7.
ETSO Development and Implementation of a Coordinated Model for Regional and Inter Regional
Congestion Management
8.
Report of the Working Group on the Development of Nordpool and Exchange Operations
9.
10. Congestion Management in Nordic Market Evaluation of different market Models, Final Report
28