Documenti di Didattica
Documenti di Professioni
Documenti di Cultura
Volume I, Issue 1
Yields to Life 3
Expectancy
Capital Markets 4
Commentary
Longevity Market 5
Special Reports 6
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 3
11/17/08 ‐ 11/28/08 Comparitive Yields‐to‐life‐expectancy
17
16
15
14
AVS
Yield/IRR
13
Fasano
12 21st Services
ISC
11
EMSI
10
8
24
36
48
60
72
84
96
108
120
132
144
156
168
180
192
204
216
228
240
We also want to point out in this issue’s chart 21st is for the first time showing IRR’s lower than AVS. The
reason for this is that this data incorporates the changes in underwriting tables from 21st but is prior to AVS’s adjust-
ments being reflected. Early data for the next issue already suggests that this will go back to normal with AVS showing
lower IRR’s than 21st.
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 4
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 5
20 10yr US Treasuries
18
16 Spreads in longevity markets are finally leveling off
14 after several months near highs of 1400+bps. The
12
10 main cause for this spike has been the rapid dete-
8 rioration in credit quality experienced by large
6 financial institutions like Lehman’s Brothers, Wa-
4
2 chovia, AIG, and Citi. In our recent survey of life
0 settlement buyers and sellers the expectation is
that IRR’s will continue to come down going into
2009 barring that there are no more bailouts of
insurance carriers.
10yr LS 10yr Treas 10yr Tre/10yr LS
20 12mo LIBOR
18
16
14 Since LIBOR is used as a benchmark to track the
12 cost of borrowing and lending we have included in
10 this chart to track correlations between lower LI-
8
6
BOR rates and life settlement IRR’s. It is clear
4 that although rates have been coming down this
2 has not translated into lower IRR’s in life settle-
0
ments. This is not unique to our asset class as
many borrowers have found it difficult to obtain
financing despite lower rates.
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 6
Special Reports
In this week’s issue of our then it can quickly end up as com- Scenario B: The Fund pur-
Special Reports section we cover the plete annihilation of investor equity.chases $100million worth of policies
risks associated with using leverage in Here’s an example. Let’s – not face value but actual secondary
life settlement investment funds. say that Life Settlement Fund XYZ is market value. Again the $25 million
We’ve heard it said many times within set up in typical hedge fund fashion represents investor equity and the $75
the life settlement space, particularly with a 2/20 fee structure. Let’s also million is debt. This time because of
amongst new funds trying to raise suppose that they can obtain bank let’s say a change in underwriting
capital, that life insurance portfolios lending at LIBOR + 350bps. The tables, the fund’s year end perform-
are perfect for applying leverage be- bank will provide 3:1 leverage for theance looks more like 8% instead of
cause of their “low” volatility. After fund meaning that for every $1 of 13% as originally forecasted. This
reading through more than a dozen equity the fund puts up the bank will has a dramatic effect on the investor’s
offering memorandums it is clear that match them with $3 more. The bank equity after fees. As you can see in
a large percentage of those seeking is now financing 75% of the policies the chart below it drops the ROE to
funds do not understand just how purchased by the fund. zero.
volatile investing in life settlements Scenario A: The Fund pur- It should be noted that nei-
can be. chases $100million worth of policies ther one of these examples adds the
First of all if a fund is ac- – not face value but actual secondary significant issue that standard devia-
quiring anything less than several market value. The $25 million repre- tion plays in performance based on
hundred policies they may want to sents investor equity and the $75 the number of policies held. This
consider going to Las Vegas and play- million is debt. Assuming the fund’s factor coupled with leverage could
ing black jack instead with their in- performance is 13% the return on quickly cause a disaster if it lands on
vestor’s money. The standard devia- equity (ROE) for investors after all the wrong side.
tion on small pool sizes is enormous fees will be 16% (see chart below). So here is some advice to
and can either turn into a windfall for This leverage equates to about a 21% new funds seeking to attract capital
investors or a wipeout. This scenario increase in investment performance, out there. First and foremost, you
is only compounded through the use however, it comes at the expense of a should avoid leverage until you have
of leverage. Leverage is and always 300% increase in risk. This is hardly a 3 year track record of returns. Sec-
will be a two-edged sword. If things a safe investment. ond, besides having a high water
go in your direction the results can mark for your fund, you should have
Now let’s talk a look at Sce-
look amazing, however, if they do not nario B a hurdle rate of 8-9% otherwise you
could risk having a conflict of interest
SCENARIO A SCENARIO B with your investors as you potentially
Investor Equity $ 25,000,000 Investor Equity $ 25,000,000 could make money while they lose
money. Third, make sure that you
Debt @ 8% $ 75,000,000 Debt @ 8% $ 75,000,000
have a lockup period of at least 3-
Total $ 100,000,000 Total $ 100,000,000 5yrs. Anything shorter will be asking
1yr performance of fund 13.00% 1yr performance of fund 8.00% for problems since liquidity in this
Total yr end $ 113,000,000 Total yr end $ 108,000,000
asset class is still in its infancy and
even on large diversified pools it will
take a couple of years before maturi-
Mgt Fee 2% $ 500,000 Mgt Fee 2% $ 500,000 ties occur and can be accurately used
Perfomance Fee 20% $ 2,600,000 Perfomance Fee 20% $ 1,600,000
to forecast future returns. Last but
not least, focus on building an ample
Interest on Debt $ 6,000,000 Interest on Debt $ 6,000,000 pool size and be realistic about the
time required to acquire a large
Investor Equity $ 28,900,000 Investor Equity $ 24,900,000 enough pool to reach fund’s invest-
ment goals.
ROE 16% ROE 0%
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 7
Credit Watch
Credit Watch is a list of Life Insurance Carrier’s that have been placed on “Credit Watch” by the underlining
Rating Agencies. Credit Watch is when an Insurance Carrier has been downgraded or is being watched for possible
downgrade. The Ratings listed below are the latest data from the two rating agencies. All ratings listed can found on the
public Web site of the underlining rating agencies. This information is the most accurate at the time of publication.
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 8
For more information contact the National Organization of Life and Health Insurance Guaranty Associations (NOLHGA, 13873 Park Center Road,
Suite 329, Herndon, VA 22071)
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 9
For more information contact the National Organization of Life and Health Insurance Guaranty Associations (NOLHGA, 13873 Park Center
Road, Suite 329, Herndon, VA 22071)
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
Page 10
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766
LIFE-EXCHANGE TRADE REPORT
Subscription Form
Circle One Name :
Monthly Subscription $ 500.00 Title :
Pay the year in Full $ 5,500.00 Company :
Billing Address :
Please return the form via: City, State, Zip :
Country :
Fax: 866-455-4123 Phone :
email: carlinegele@life-exchange.com Email :
Card Type
Mail: Life-Exchange, Inc. Card Number :
2001 Biscayne Blvd Expiration Date :
Suite 2102 3 Digit sec code on the back of card :
Miami FL 33137
Signature/Date
Copyright @2008 Life-Exchange, Inc │ 2001 Biscayne Boulevard Suite 2102, Miami, Florida 33137 │ (866) 907-9766